# Covid: the shape of things to come



## LostHighway

Israel, at present the most vaccinated country with over 60% of the population fully vaccinated (primarily the Pfizer vaccine), is still seeing a concerning number of cases. The UK is reporting that the beta variant, although apparently less infectious than the delta strain, is showing breakthrough infections in their (AstraZeneca) vaccinated population. Significant chunks of the USA still have fairly low vaccination rates (Alabama 33% fully vaccinated, Mississippi 33%, Arkansas 35%, Louisiana 35%, ...) and a large part of the world south of the Tropic of Cancer is either entirely unvaccinated or vaccinated at very low rates. The alleged lower effectiveness of some of the non-Western vaccines is another issues of concern. In short, conditions are favorable for yet more mutations, some of which could be even more successful at bypassing the immunity offered by current vaccines. My suspicion is that we'll be back to mandated masking indoors in the USA and perhaps some forced closings by September if not sooner.


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## spaceconvoy

LostHighway said:


> My suspicion is that we'll be back to mandated masking indoors in the USA and perhaps some forced closings by September if not sooner.



This seems doubtful to me... We're starting to realize that no amount of incentives will be enough to get a sizable chunk of the population vaccinated. Parents who have been vaccinated for nearly a half year by the time school starts will not suffer another semester of remote learning. Since the vaccine refusers seem to be content to die for their freedoms, I feel like there will be a collective shrug, "oh well, we tried."



LostHighway said:


> In short, conditions are favorable for yet more mutations, some of which could be even more successful at bypassing the immunity offered by current vaccines.



This is the only thing I can see changing the calculation. If the variations don't get worse than the flu (for vaccinated people) I feel like this pandemic will soon become normalized as an endemic. The US will be stuck in limbo for the rest of the summer, some places as wild as Florida and others as cautious as LA, while watching the UK experiment unfold. As callous as it sounds, I don't think that even significantly increased deaths among the unvaccinated will prevent schools from opening this fall, unless there's some truly dreadful mutation.


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## GorillaGrunt

So really I should just move to Florida right now then… numbers warranting closing things down would also indicate that the will of the people is for things not to close down no matter what.


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## MarcelNL

O not just Israel, the next wave is here, at least it's all over Europe. IMO however there is one major a difference from the previous waves....and that is ICU admissions are much lower, likely due to the vaccination rate. Positive test means someone has the disease, it does not tell us how bad these patients are affected.

I think we should continue to make speed with making vaccination available to the global population, if only to alleviate the current known variants until we have a handle on logistics of production and distribution and we can predict what the next mutation is, much like the flu.

Having any serious number of folks vaccinated in countries where vaccination is a choice, for those who did not opt...I'd say live happily with the consequences. I am all for freedom, independence and all that, there is another side to that too; regular hospital care is backlogged like H%$##...people are dying and suffering due treatments being delayed.
Aside from that enormous backlog there is a maximum to the depth to which the state coffers can be drained. At some point tax will have to be paid to replenish hole created by COVID relief funding.


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## Michi

I live in a place that has been held up (together with New Zealand) as the shining light of effective infection control.

About four weeks ago, a driver who ferried three or four air crew from the airport to their quarantine hotel ended up getting infected by one of the air crew. The driver was not vaccinated (yes, really), nor was there any requirement for him to be vaccinated (yes, really, really).

Now, about a month later, about one half of Australia's population is under lock-down because one person was all it took to spread the virus into the community. It does not help that the delta variant is far more infectious than any of the variants that preceded it. People have managed to infect someone else within 36 hours of getting infected themselves. That doesn't leave our contact tracers much of a chance 

Moreover, as of now, about 13% of the Australian population has had two doses of a vaccine. Yes, you read that right: 13%. And about one third of the population has had one shot. Never mind that that many other first-world countries can boast of vaccination rates of 50% and more.

Also, anyone aged below 40 years is currently ineligible to get the (Astra Zeneca) vaccine, unless that person opts against the advice of our vaccine advisory body and chooses to take the vaccine "with informed consent," regardless. What that means is that the person takes a (very small) risk of ending up with a potentially serious blood clotting problem. (Never mind that the risk of dying from Covid is many times higher than the risk of getting a blood clot from the Astra Zeneca vaccine.) But, basically, if you are under forty here, you are screwed.

The Pfizer vaccine (the only other vaccine in Australia) is in extremely short supply. Someone below 40 years of age has essentially zero chance of getting that vaccine right now, unless they camp outside a vaccination centre and get lucky to receive one of the left-over doses at the end of the day because there were a few no-shows.

In short, as spectacularly good as Australia's response has been in controlling the spread of the disease, as shockingly poor has been the vaccination effort.

And now we have delta on the loose. New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia are under strict lock-down. That works out to well over half the country's population.Today, we had yet more infections spring up in Queensland, so we may be next in line.

This time, I'm afraid that the virus may well have got the better of us. We had too many close shaves already. With more than 90% of the Australian population being near-enough defenseless (with either no dose or a single dose), this may turn out to be very serious indeed.

I do hope that I'm wrong.


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## MarcelNL

What is clear is that the chance of getting infected is going up with the delta variant, what is also clear (assuming Fauci and others in control in the US have their numbers right, I for one do trust those numbers) is that 99.5% of current Covid related deaths in the US are non vaccinated people, and 97% of Covid related hospitalizations are non vaccinated people. Those numbers do not mean that delta is more dangerous.
I haven't seen any indication that the virus' morbidity/mortality has increased in any age range, conclusive evidence is not yet available afaik, yet some initial reports say that delta's mortality is about half of that for the initial virus.

Being under 40 means you are pretty safe even if you get Covid (provided there are no serious comorbidities)!

I'd say vaccination shows it's working, with a pandemic like Covid which is contagious but not a real killer it's not the question so much IF you get it, but WHEN, especially when a more contagious (Delta) variant is on the loose.

Lockdowns do reasonably well to slow the spread but they are no solution. A few more countries are in the same predicament as Aus, and honestly IMO the best solution is increasing vaccination rates by convincing folks to get vaccinated and buying more supplies and making them available asap, even if it means a proportion of the population suddenly starts speaking Chinese or Russian as a side effect...60% efficacy still means you can eradicate the risk for a large percentage of the population. 

Alternatively Govt's could agree to lift the patents and hope someone can start producing mass quantities AND do so reasonably quick, which IMO is not real likely to end well...


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## Barmoley

Lock downs were never a long term solution and were never meant to be a long term strategy. They worked well in some countries to give these countries time for real solutions. Unfortunately, some decided that just because they did well with lockdowns they don't need to invest in the actual solutions. Vaccines work and if more people were vaccinated we would be in a better shape worldwide. Of course even where vaccines are available and plentiful, some choose not to take them. Getting covid is not a death sentence for most younger, healthy adults. Older adults have no excuse for not getting vaccinated if the vaccine is available to them. It doesn't look like we will get rid of covid anytime soon, but life must continue and at the moment getting more people vaccinated is the only way to get there.


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## GorillaGrunt

And they should have made vaccination mandatory nationwide two months ago. Like if you try to avoid it you get arrested and vaccinated anyway. Speaking from the US perspective ofc, situation will be different in other countries.


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## Bodine

Although I chose to be vaccinated, I respect those who choose not to. 
The Government has no right to force anyone to do so. This is a FREE country and the gov needs to be held in check, like stay out of my business.
There is so much disinformation and out right lies out there, one can not know the truth.
One they all agree on, but do not talk about, is better than 98% survival rate among those without other serious conditions.
I am 69, in good health and have nothing to fear.


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## tcmx3

Bodine said:


> Although I chose to be vaccinated, I respect those who choose not to.
> The Government has no right to force anyone to do so. This is a FREE country and the gov needs to be held in check, like stay out of my business.
> There is so much disinformation and out right lies out there, one can not know the truth.
> One they all agree on, but do not talk about, is better than 98% survival rate among those without other serious conditions.
> I am 69, in good health and have nothing to fear.



you can survive having your arm blown off by an IED; doesnt make it a good idea to not take such things seriously. COVID can cause serious brain damage, permanent lung damage, etc. and often does. even in younger people.

not getting vaccinated is not materially different than drinking and driving. (folks with legitimate medical preclusions excepted)


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## Barmoley

In the US vaccines are plentiful and free and anyone, outside of a tiny population that can't get vaccines for medical reasons and kids under 12, can get a vaccine. People not getting on of the vaccines do this by choice. I would never want a government that would force people to get this vaccine or get arrested, that's just going absolutely overboard. COVID is dangerous for some and people should get one of the vaccines and move on with their lives. At the end it is still a personal choice, at least in the US, so far.


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## superworrier

Barmoley said:


> In the US vaccines are plentiful and free and anyone, outside of a tiny population that can't get vaccines for medical reasons and kids under 12, can get a vaccine. People not getting on of the vaccines do this by choice. I would never want a government that would force people to get this vaccine or get arrested, that's just going absolutely overboard. COVID is dangerous for some and people should get one of the vaccines and move on with their lives. At the end it is still a personal choice, at least in the US, so far.


Yeah. I think it's fair to restrict nonvax people from going to non-essentials (concerts travel etc). People have a right to control their own body, but not to go to concerts, especially when they may affect others. At some point we need to let the nonvax accept the consequences of their actions.


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## applepieforbreakfast

superworrier said:


> Yeah. I think it's fair to restrict nonvax people from going to non-essentials (concerts travel etc). People have a right to control their own body, but not to go to concerts, especially when they may affect others. At some point we need to let the nonvax accept the consequences of their actions.



If it's private companies restricting their attendance to events/destinations, sure.


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## tcmx3

applepieforbreakfast said:


> If it's private companies restricting their attendance to events/destinations, sure.



it's my choice if I want to touch the weird alien artifact. the government has no right to tell me to avoid those creepy looking eggs.


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## rickbern

applepieforbreakfast said:


> If it's private companies restricting their attendance to events/destinations, sure.


Vaccines have been a requirement for school in this country for an awfully long time. Here's NYS requirements, I think this is pretty standard:

*Vaccines required for day care, pre-K, and school attendance*

Diphtheria and Tetanus toxoid-containing vaccine and Pertussis vaccine (DTaP or Tdap)
Hepatitis B vaccine
Measles, Mumps and Rubella vaccine (MMR)
Polio vaccine
Varicella (Chickenpox) vaccine
*Additional vaccines required for middle school and high school*

Tdap vaccine for Grades 6-12
Meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MenACWY) for Grades 7-12
Students in Grade 12 need an additional booster dose of MenACWY on or after their 16th birthday

*Additional vaccines required for day care and pre-K*

Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccine (HiB)
Pneumococcal Conjugate vaccine (PCV)

//
Nobody wants to allow a minority to affect the health of most people. Nobody will abide by a parent doing willful harm to their children in any other area, why is this treated so differently?

If we're forced to give extended unemployment benefits to avoid the economy imploding, there's a societal cost to that and we're at the point now where that's a preventable cost. Lots of people have lost their businesses, others are hanging on by a thread and certain peoples unwillingness to get vaxed is just going to prolong the suffering.

I don't get it. I say, require vaccines for school kids, and allow private companies to set their own standards. Who in their right mind is going to get on a cruise ship now without assurance that the other passengers are vaccinated?


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## tcmx3

rickbern said:


> Vaccines have been a requirement for school in this country for an awfully long time. Here's NYS requirements, I think this is pretty standard:
> 
> *Vaccines required for day care, pre-K, and school attendance*
> 
> Diphtheria and Tetanus toxoid-containing vaccine and Pertussis vaccine (DTaP or Tdap)
> Hepatitis B vaccine
> Measles, Mumps and Rubella vaccine (MMR)
> Polio vaccine
> Varicella (Chickenpox) vaccine
> *Additional vaccines required for middle school and high school*
> 
> Tdap vaccine for Grades 6-12
> Meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MenACWY) for Grades 7-12
> Students in Grade 12 need an additional booster dose of MenACWY on or after their 16th birthday
> 
> *Additional vaccines required for day care and pre-K*
> 
> Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccine (HiB)
> Pneumococcal Conjugate vaccine (PCV)
> 
> //
> Nobody wants to allow a minority to affect the health of most people. Nobody will abide by a parent doing willful harm to their children in any other area, why is this treated so differently? If we're forced to give extended unemployment benefits to avoid the economy imploding, there's a societal cost to that and we're at the point now where that's a preventable cost. Lots of people have lost their businesses, others are hanging on by a thread and certain peoples unwillingness to get vaxed is just going to prolong the suffering.
> 
> I don't get it. I say, require them.



not just public school either, my private university in Massachusetts had state mandated vaccine and insurance rules. 

IMO it's time to start making life uncomfortable for folks who are able to get vaccines and dont.

and also to get rid of these preposterous vaccine patents. I S2G the people in charge have brain damage as evidenced by how clear it is that they think making money for a few companies right now outweighs solving a global problem.


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## applepieforbreakfast

I think what it really boils down to, is that Covid doesn't affect the "correct" population and doesn't have a high enough mortality rate for people to get all up in arms about. As a result, _certain _segments of the population think it's not a big deal, that there's no reason to get vaccinated, and it's not a real issue until it affects them or someone they know.


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## spaceconvoy




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## GorillaGrunt

I'd ordinarily always come down on the side of greater freedom too, but that horse is long out of the barn. As a restaurant worker and therefore speaking from the position of absolute least privilege with regard to this whole thing, freedom to do individually and collectively what one/the people decide is the best course of action based on the widely available information has already been grievously abridged by the forcible shutdown of entire sectors of life and further by the artificial influencing of the consumer population. The free market, too, has been significantly tampered with such that conditions were and are not reflective of what supply and demand would otherwise be with consumers deciding for themselves what to do based on publicly available data.

Now the industry and its adjacent sectors, the supply chain, labor market, &c, tens of millions of people, are in ruins far worse than the worst case unmitigated virus scenarios could possibly have caused. And it's become apparent that whatever people would decide for themselves, infection case and hospitalization numbers are going to continue to dictate what governments and the populations they influence will do vis-a-vis restaurants and the like. We also know that the way to reduce those numbers is to increase the vaccination rate. So my attitude is that my rights and livelihood (and those of the multitudes for whom I speak who have borne the brunt of the effects of the response to the outbreak) have been sacrificed enough for someone else's sake, and if what it takes to begin to repair some of that damage is to force upon a bunch of obstinate people something that they're lucky to have available, then do it and let the courts rule it unconstitutional after the fact.


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## MarcelNL

pls do not forget that getting vaccinated does not mean you cannot get Covid and spread it, just see the data on the delta variant, it's just less likely.

Getting vaccinated is IMO primarily to lower the risks of getting Covid for yourself and it may help to eradicate the disease but only once a high percentage of ALL population gets vaccinated, which is not likely anytime soon IMO looking at how good we've been in getting the global population vaccinated for other diseases that we have good vaccines for (just lookup vaccine derived Poliovirus).


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## big_adventure

People are free to not get vaccinated, but people shouldn't get to endanger others for their (objectively stupid and bad) decision. No bars, no restaurants, no gyms, no theaters, no clubs, no shops, none of that. No school, no jobs where you share the air with other people, no freaking way. 

Most of those things are privileges anyway: you can't drive a car without a licence, you can't go to school without a polio vaccine, you shouldn't get to do public stuff without this vaccine.


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## Bill13

rickbern said:


> Vaccines have been a requirement for school in this country for an awfully long time. Here's NYS requirements, I think this is pretty standard:
> 
> *Vaccines required for day care, pre-K, and school attendance*
> 
> Diphtheria and Tetanus toxoid-containing vaccine and Pertussis vaccine (DTaP or Tdap)
> Hepatitis B vaccine
> Measles, Mumps and Rubella vaccine (MMR)
> Polio vaccine
> Varicella (Chickenpox) vaccine
> *Additional vaccines required for middle school and high school*
> 
> Tdap vaccine for Grades 6-12
> Meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MenACWY) for Grades 7-12
> Students in Grade 12 need an additional booster dose of MenACWY on or after their 16th birthday
> 
> *Additional vaccines required for day care and pre-K*
> 
> Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccine (HiB)
> Pneumococcal Conjugate vaccine (PCV)
> 
> //
> Nobody wants to allow a minority to affect the health of most people. Nobody will abide by a parent doing willful harm to their children in any other area, why is this treated so differently?
> 
> If we're forced to give extended unemployment benefits to avoid the economy imploding, there's a societal cost to that and we're at the point now where that's a preventable cost. Lots of people have lost their businesses, others are hanging on by a thread and certain peoples unwillingness to get vaxed is just going to prolong the suffering.
> 
> I don't get it. I say, require vaccines for school kids, and allow private companies to set their own standards. Who in their right mind is going to get on a cruise ship now without assurance that the other passengers are vaccinated?


I believe one big difference is that those vaccines have been FDA approved. We are still waiting for the trials to submitted for approval for the covid vaccines.


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## rickbern

Bill13 said:


> I believe one big difference is that those vaccines have been FDA approved. We are still waiting for the trials to submitted for approval for the covid vaccines.


Review post 18 in this thread.

When the polio vaccine was injected into me as a child it was nowhere near as thoroughly tested as the COVID vaccine was sixty or so years later. Emergency authorization implies an emergency. We got one. 

I’m not saying to get ahead of the approvals but people are dying and businesses are suffering. There’s only one path out of this and that’s worldwide universal vaccination.


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## deskjockey

GorillaGrunt said:


> And they should have made vaccination mandatory nationwide two months ago. Like if you try to avoid it you get arrested and vaccinated anyway. Speaking from the US perspective ofc, situation will be different in other countries.



Forced injection of Emergency Use Authorization immunizations for people not in forced high density settings (nursing homes, schools, etc.) is a step too far IMHO. The public is not in the military where they have voluntarily waived their rights for vaccines like this.

*Even fully approved vaccines, like the flu vaccine, with the Flu killing young and old people every year, in not "forced" on the public at large.*



Bodine said:


> Although I chose to be vaccinated, I respect those who choose not to.
> The Government has no right to force anyone to do so. This is a FREE country and the gov needs to be held in check, like stay out of my business.
> There is so much disinformation and out right lies out there, one can not know the truth.
> One they all agree on, but do not talk about, is better than 98% survival rate among those without other serious conditions.
> I am 69, in good health and have nothing to fear.



Valid point regarding disinformation and the freedom to make your own choice, assuming you are avoiding large public settings and confined spaces with the public at large.

Between Social Media and their heavy handed agenda with various forms of 'social justice' and political manipulation, confusion and disinformation starts there for many. Then you have the US Government with mixed messages and an obvious political slant. Thinking people from both sides of the political aisle have serious questions about these emergency use vaccinations and why they are needed and for who.

*It is not dissimilar to the face masks!* First they didn't want us to wear them so hospitals and doctors didn't run out. Now even vaccinated people are being masked shamed. And who thinks masking a 2-year old is going to go well?



Barmoley said:


> In the US vaccines are plentiful and free and anyone, outside of a tiny population that can't get vaccines for medical reasons and kids under 12, can get a vaccine. People not getting on of the vaccines do this by choice. I would never want a government that would force people to get this vaccine or get arrested, that's just going absolutely overboard. COVID is dangerous for some and people should get one of the vaccines and move on with their lives. At the end it is still a personal choice, at least in the US, so far.



Absolutely! If they forced me to get an "Emergency Use" vaccination, where does it stop? Isn't this why our nation (USA) was founded (to avoid religious persecution among the primary concerns)? Do I loose my free speech if I don't regurgitate the "approved message"?

I had a "choice" whether to get this Emergency Use vaccination and I perceived the benefit to be greater than the risk and got it. I can understand some people making a different CHOICE!



tcmx3 said:


> not just public school either, my private university in Massachusetts had state mandated vaccine and insurance rules.
> 
> IMO it's time to start making life uncomfortable for folks who are able to get vaccines and dont.
> 
> and also to get rid of these preposterous vaccine patents. I S2G the people in charge have brain damage as evidenced by how clear it is that they think making money for a few companies right now outweighs solving a global problem.



First, I am still stunned by Anti-Vaxxers and how easy it is in some school districts to opt out, which has lead to measles outbreaks among the many issues this has caused. Children die from not getting appropriate vaccines. Sure, vaccines have rare side effects but, it is called relative risk; does the risk of my child dying exceed the risk of a significant side-effect?

*If you remove Patent Protections, who will invest billions of dollars to make vaccines?*

The cost of medical care and medicine in the USA is a different subject from Patent Protection.


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## MarcelNL

Patent protection does not mean a drug is for free...various governments have funded hundreds of missions to create and produce the vaccines to begin with, paid with tax money and already invested.

We buy various off patent drugs, simply because there is (less than for on patent drugs) money to be made.

I work in 'the industry', still this one is of a different and global magnitude far bigger than allowing us to rely on a few manufacturers to provide all 7 billion people with two or even three shots....however, producing the new rNA vaccines is not likely something that 'drugsforyou. Ltd' in India or China can or should attempt, setting up production and quality control, making the vaccine and validating a new plant and it's Q&A takes time and $$$ (inspections by FDA EMA etc) so my pledge would be for a joint venture to multiply production but under the oversight of the patent owners while sharing cost and revenue. Less $$ per shot but selling many shots more means lots of $$ to be made or my economics class was wrong back in the day...as a byproduct more folks get access to vaccines.


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## Michi

GorillaGrunt said:


> As a restaurant worker and therefore speaking from the position of absolute least privilege with regard to this whole thing, freedom to do individually and collectively what one/the people decide is the best course of action based on the widely available information has already been grievously abridged by the forcible shutdown of entire sectors of life and further by the artificial influencing of the consumer population


Thank you for sharing.

Hmmm… I'm guessing that you do know how to spell "sesquipedalianism"?

PS: If you want your message to be received by people without a tertiary degree, making your sentences shorter would be in your interest.


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## tcmx3

deskjockey said:


> *If you remove Patent Protections, who will invest billions of dollars to make vaccines?*
> 
> The cost of medical care and medicine in the USA is a different subject from Patent Protection.



the US government funded covid vaccine research (and btw it funds a MASSIVE percentage of other R&D that companies make money off of), also it turns out also that a solving a humanity wide crises precedes the needs of making a few dollars.

furthermore, there is a lot of empirical evidence from Europe, South Korea, Japan, etc. that even without the insane profits that US pharmas make that companies still invest in R&D. not having a patent on a vaccine doesnt even mean you arent making money, it just means that you let other people make the same vaccine. and they'd still have all their other vaccines.

people gotta stop thinking this way. it's some kind of 80s brainworm that still infects us; profit is not the singular motivator of human activity, and not everything has to make a profit. there's a literal crises going on, it's not important if Pfizer makes a few tens of millions of dollars more this year for their shareholders.


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## deskjockey

The US Government did streamline the approval and deployment process and paid for vaccines to be produced in parallel to testing and approval. However, they didn't fund the patents used to produce the vaccines. How many drug patents were issued during Covid? If you want to argue the US Government vaccine purchases paid for patents, that is similar to saying I PAID FOR PATENTS by purchasing my prescriptions. I don't know about you but, I'm not getting royalties from my allergy and heart medication prescriptions.

The manufacturers used patents and experience THEY ALREADY HAD to make the vaccines. Its no different than the efficacy patent from Europe (Bion-Tech?) that was added to improve the effectiveness of vaccines. That ingredient was in use prior to the current Pandemic and came from the EU.


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## MarcelNL

I'd like to clarify the order of magnitude of profits...they are not measured in a few tens of millions as hardly any company would invest the amounts required to start up production, run clinical programs (studies) AT RISK on that premise, but closer to several hundreds of millions or even a couple of billions when literally billions of doses are sold...

Just look up the Ebola vaccin program, for sure there is little money made on that and still it was an effort (also co-funded by governments/WHO etc)


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## deskjockey

Vaccines for illnesses in impoverished regions like Africa do require funding from non-profits (think Gates Foundation and similar) and various governments because there isn't a good business case to make the investment from a company that has to answer to shareholders and other owners.

Drugs are developed for the domestic USA market because there is a real profit motive for them.


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## tcmx3

deskjockey said:


> Vaccines for illnesses in impoverished regions like Africa do require funding from non-profits (think Gates Foundation and similar) and various governments because there isn't a good business case to make the investment from a company that has to answer to shareholders and other owners.
> 
> Drugs are developed for the domestic USA market because there is a real profit motive for them.



why are you bringing up religion in the covid thread? ok we get it you literally worship money geeze proselytize somewhere else.


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## deskjockey

tcmx3 said:


> why are you bringing up religion in the covid thread? ok we get it you literally worship money geeze proselytize somewhere else.



You are the one mentioning religion. Basic business economics is not a religion to most people.

Regarding our nations founding and Quakers and others fleeing persecution is not really a part of the Covid discussion beyond basic freedom of choice.


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## MarcelNL

deskjockey said:


> Drugs are developed for the domestic USA market because there is a real profit motive for them.



Perhaps in a long lost past this was true, nowadays the market for drugs is global with the exception of only few countries. More importantly; the world extends beyond the US, there are many more developers of drugs in various countries outside the US and I dare make a guess that there are more new drug leads being discovered outside the US than within the US. What is true is that many successful developers/drugs end up being bought by US based companies in order to make more $$.


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## spaceconvoy

tcmx3 said:


> and also to get rid of these preposterous vaccine patents. I S2G the people in charge have brain damage as evidenced by how clear it is that they think making money for a few companies right now outweighs solving a global problem.



Breaking out my ten foot pole to touch on this point in particular... how exactly will eliminating patents help produce more vaccines?

"Abolishing patents will not provide more shaker bags or more Chilean tree bark, nor provide more of the key filtration materials needed for production. These processes have a lot of potential choke points and rate-limiting steps in them, and there is no wand that will wave that complexity away."
...
"Why do you think China hasn’t yet produced an mRNA vaccine? Hint: it isn’t fear about violating IP. Moreover, even Moderna and Pfizer don’t yet fully understand their production technology, they are learning by doing every single day. *Moderna has said that they won’t enforce their patents during the pandemic* but no one has stepped up to produce because no one else can."

(emphasis mine)








Patents are Not the Problem! - Marginal REVOLUTION


For the last year and a half I have been shouting from the rooftops, “invest in capacity, build more factories, shore up the supply lines, spend billions to save trillions.” Fortunately, some boffins in the Biden administration have found a better way, “the US supports the waiver of IP...




marginalrevolution.com


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## MarcelNL

List of countries by pharmaceutical exports - Wikipedia just look at who produces most and figure out where the chances of increasing production capacity significantly are highest. I'll give a hint, it's not likely going to be any single country.


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## gregfisk

I find it extremely frustrating that a place like Australia who did such a great job of fighting this virus doesn’t have access to the vaccines. When there are vaccines in the US being thrown away because they have expired. We have serious issues here with miss information and many people refuse to get vaccinated. All I can say is that I hope all government run services and all privately run companies will reject these people from entering or using their facilities. If we don’t get the world population vaccinated we will never get back to normal. It’s easy to get a vaccine in the US now. They are available almost everywhere and they are free. We need to make it difficult for people to not get vaccinated if we’re not going to require it.


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## superworrier

tcmx3 said:


> the US government funded covid vaccine research (and btw it funds a MASSIVE percentage of other R&D that companies make money off of), also it turns out also that a solving a humanity wide crises precedes the needs of making a few dollars.
> 
> furthermore, there is a lot of empirical evidence from Europe, South Korea, Japan, etc. that even without the insane profits that US pharmas make that companies still invest in R&D. not having a patent on a vaccine doesnt even mean you arent making money, it just means that you let other people make the same vaccine. and they'd still have all their other vaccines.
> 
> people gotta stop thinking this way. it's some kind of 80s brainworm that still infects us; profit is not the singular motivator of human activity, and not everything has to make a profit. there's a literal crises going on, it's not important if Pfizer makes a few tens of millions of dollars more this year for their shareholders.


To touch on the other side, one of Pfizer or Moderna was not funded by the government. There was discussion on this a few weeks ago and the conclusion is waiving the patent protections wouldn't be enough, they would need to help factories get set up to produce the vaccine. Look at the J&J manufacture failures for example.


----------



## superworrier

And remember, freedom to not get vaccinated is not freedom from consequences.


----------



## deskjockey

MarcelNL said:


> List of countries by pharmaceutical exports - Wikipedia just look at who produces most and figure out where the chances of increasing production capacity significantly are highest. I'll give a hint, it's not likely going to be any single country.



Exports don't account for domestic consumption. USA drugs tend to more expensive so, I would be surprised if the USA was a top exporter. The USA is also a huge consumer of pharmaceuticals.

USA medical care in general is drastically different from Germany which I have had the misfortune to need while there. I basically had food poisoning (Campylobacter Jejune). My experience was initially suspect because I WASN'T prescribed the type of pharmaceuticals I would expect in the USA. In the end, I had no complaints about the process or outcome when it was all said and done.

Germany is an exporting nation that for its size is ENORMOUS. To find it is a top exporter of pharmaceuticals is not surprising to me.


----------



## deskjockey

gregfisk said:


> I find it extremely frustrating that a place like Australia who did such a great job of fighting this virus doesn’t have access to the vaccines. When there are vaccines in the US being thrown away because they have expired. We have serious issues here with miss information and many people refuse to get vaccinated. All I can say is that I hope all government run services and all privately run companies will reject these people from entering or using their facilities. If we don’t get the world population vaccinated we will never get back to normal. It’s easy to get a vaccine in the US now. They are available almost everywhere and they are free. We need to make it difficult for people to not get vaccinated if we’re not going to require it.



We have had doctors put in jail for administering vaccine that was about to expire (while still good). In one case, a doctor in Houston had an opened unrefrigerated vial with 7 doses when the clinic closed. He took that vial and started calling around to seniors first, and then anyone else to come get a shot. At 11PM he had one dose left which he gave to his wife.

Last I heard he was fighting going to jail and having his medical license revoked.

Regarding having approximately 400 million doses of Covid Vaccine without arms in the USA, like you I would be upset if it wasn't shared with needy nations in other parts of the world and I would be horrified if it just goes to an incinerator. Where it should go to meet the greatest need is an open question but allies like Australia and nations in difficult position like Taiwan should be at the top of the list based on what I know right now.


----------



## deskjockey

superworrier said:


> And remember, freedom to not get vaccinated is not freedom from consequences.



*Freedom of choice includes the freedom to accept the consequences of that choice.*


----------



## tcmx3

you know I gotta appreciate the huge amount unfounded confidence that it takes to come in here and explain "basic economics" to people who know way more about the subject than you.

also @spaceconvoy you know the point of my statement was about priorities, right?


----------



## deskjockey

tcmx3 said:


> you know I gotta appreciate the huge amount unfounded confidence that it takes to come in here and explain "basic economics" to people who know way more about the subject than you.
> 
> also @spaceconvoy you know the point of my statement was about priorities, right?



You might be surprised at the experience and education of some of the people here. Just because someone has a different opinion doesn't mean that they don't have a good reason to feel the way they do.

Basic economics to manage a business for the benefit of shareholders and owners is just that. *Fiduciary responsibilities matter.*


----------



## rstcso

Barmoley said:


> In the US vaccines are plentiful and free


They are not free. In my case, my insurance plan was charged for mine. Next year, my plan rates will go up. If my insurance hadn't paid, there are federal programs available to pay for the vaccine. Anyone paying federal taxes are funding these programs (more likely, our descendants will be). Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm not aware of any program where the companies producing the vaccines are providing them to the public at no charge.


----------



## gregfisk

rstcso said:


> They are not free. In my case, my insurance plan was charged for mine. Next year, my plan rates will go up. If my insurance hadn't paid, there are federal programs available to pay for the vaccine. Anyone paying federal taxes are funding these programs (more likely, our descendants will be). Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm not aware of any program where the companies producing the vaccines are providing them to the public at no charge.



As far as I know the vaccines are free in the US. I’m not aware of anywhere in the US that you have to pay for a shot(s).


----------



## tcmx3

rstcso said:


> They are not free. In my case, my insurance plan was charged for mine. Next year, my plan rates will go up. If my insurance hadn't paid, there are federal programs available to pay for the vaccine. Anyone paying federal taxes are funding these programs (more likely, our descendants will be). Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm not aware of any program where the companies producing the vaccines are providing them to the public at no charge.



while you're not technically wrong, Barmoley is more correct here because from a behavioral standpoint the people getting the vaccines are not having to pay anything out of pocket, and as such it's more appropriate to view them as free.

I have to say though it's very disappointing that so many people look at the world on fire and all they want to talk about is money.


----------



## spaceconvoy

tcmx3 said:


> I have to say though it's very disappointing that so many people look at the world on fire and all they want to talk about is money.


What is money if not an incentive? How do you propose to solve this global problem without tangible incentives?

Imagine an ER doctor renegotiating their contract with a hospital, and the hospital administrator saying, "it's very disappointing that all you want to talk about is money while people are dying." Nightly applause does not put food on the table.

To paraphrase:
I S2G the twitterati have brain damage as evidenced by how clear it is that they think withholding money from a few companies right now outweighs solving a global problem.

I guess we have a very different view of money and its relationship to value and priorities.


----------



## Lars

spaceconvoy said:


> What is money if not an incentive?


Money explained


----------



## tcmx3

spaceconvoy said:


> What is money if not an incentive? How do you propose to solve this global problem without tangible incentives?
> 
> Imagine an ER doctor renegotiating their contract with a hospital, and the hospital administrator saying, "it's very disappointing that all you want to talk about is money while people are dying." Nightly applause does not put food on the table.



there is such a thing as a social good.

once upon a time the US valued it, e.g. when we worked to eradicate Polio and Smallpox. yes money was made, but it wasn't the priority, and people largely did not bemoan that the maximum amount of money wasnt being made.

also the ER doctor thing is a complete false equivalence. we are dealing with a global health crisis, during which there is still _plenty _of money being made.

frankly, as sad as it is, your view is the dominant one these days. and it's why our response to Covid has been much closer to how we handled the AIDS epidemic than Polio.


----------



## spaceconvoy

tcmx3 said:


> there is such a thing as a social good.
> 
> once upon a time the US valued it, e.g. when we worked to eradicate Polio and Smallpox. yes money was made, but it wasn't the priority, and people largely did not bemoan that the maximum amount of money wasnt being made.
> 
> also the ER doctor thing is a complete false equivalence. we are dealing with a global health crisis, during which there is still _plenty _of money being made.
> 
> frankly, as sad as it is, your view is the dominant one these days. and it's why our response to Covid has been much closer to how we handled the AIDS epidemic than Polio.


Wow. If you think our response to covid is similar to the aids crisis, then we are operating from a completely different set of facts and are unlikely to have a productive discussion. And you still haven't shown any evidence that patent waivers would help increase vaccine supply. They are not the bottleneck here as they were for aids drugs in the 90s.

I do strongly believe in the social good, which is precisely why I support vaccine patents. This is no longer an acute crisis, but an endemic that will never be eradicated - so it's not like polio either, speaking of false equivalences. There will likely be a continuous need for future vaccines/boosters against a never-ending number of variants. Do they all get 'emergency' patent waivers?

The one point we can probably agree on is that the patent system is badly broken and needs reform. I'm not sure what the appropriate incentives are, but I believe the answer is vastly more complex than patent waivers.


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## Keith Sinclair

The folks that don't want vaccines are often influenced by fringe group types. 

Remember all those shots when kid in early 1950's. Before vaccines the life expectancy was 
much lower than today. They are part of reason
Earth's population has almost quadrupled just in my lifetime. Maybe your right to not take any vaccines, but it's a fact that majority that are helps protect those who don't. Virus don't give a rip about politics all they need is any host.

Here we have about 60% it has slowed down as have gone through age groups.

They are trying to influence holdouts. News shots of Islanders in hospital with covid & variants saying if they knew how sick they became would have taken vaccine. 

They started offering free plate lunches if you come in & get your shots.


----------



## tcmx3

spaceconvoy said:


> Wow. If you think our response to covid is similar to the aids crisis, then we are operating from a completely different set of facts and are unlikely to have a productive discussion. And you still haven't shown any evidence that patent waivers would help increase vaccine supply. They are not the bottleneck here as they were for aids drugs in the 90s.
> 
> I do strongly believe in the social good, which is precisely why I support vaccine patents. This is no longer an acute crisis, but an endemic that will never be eradicated - so it's not like polio either, speaking of false equivalences. There will likely be a continuous need for future vaccines/boosters against a never-ending number of variants. Do they all get 'emergency' patent waivers?
> 
> The one point we can probably agree on is that the patent system is badly broken and needs reform. I'm not sure what the appropriate incentives are, but I believe the answer is vastly more complex than patent waivers.



1. Im not equating the diseases, Im not even fully equating the mentality, just stating that on a spectrum of the US response to polio and aids, well we're much closer to the latter.

2. India and South Africa both believe a vaccine waiver would help them and they've petitioned for them. Given the circumstances, why not just do it? Even some within our own camp believe it will work. Also I would point out that it's impossible to give empirical evidence that something works when it has been yet to be tested. Im sure youre not arguing this in bad faith, but I dont see how your request is reasonably met other than to say I dont see a great reason not to try it.

3. Im gonna bow out of this one now anyway. If you want to continue to discuss by all means but I feel like this has gone way past the original point I was trying to make, which is that we ought to be pooling everything we have to fighting COVID together and worrying about how people are going to get paid later. Feel free to continue without me.


----------



## tgfencer

A few thoughts, in no particular order:

-Patent waivers may not be *the *solution, but they are probably *part* of one.
-Anti-vaxxers may not be the *biggest*, but they are *part* of the problem. As is a shortage of vaccinations for countries all over the globe, and numerous other things.
-Money may not be the *greatest *incentive, but it is *an* incentive. Likewise, it is also a *necessity*, both in producing the vaccine, purchasing it en masse for citizens, and keeping economies afloat in the meantime.

Freedom is *an *important right to protect, but it is not the *only* thing worth protecting. "Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country", as the famous quote goes. Maybe in actuality, it's not you can do for your country *or* what your country can do for you, but in fact it's *both.* And, on top of that, maybe it's also what you can do for your fellow humanity, acting only out the goodness and selflessness of your soul, without expecting a reward or a pat on the back. There is a simple self-respect that comes from doing what's right by others, even if no one knows about it.

This isn't merely a health problem, it is a global political and economic cluster *uck. One does not simply walk up to a cluster this large and un-*uck it with a single act. Plenty of people on here have valid points and worthwhile arguments. But none of these things tell the whole story. And the whole story is simply that this particular cluster *uck will not be solved by any one man, woman, nation, or idea. It's going to be solved by everyone: by big actors making big steps and sacrificing political or economic capital to enact change and it will be solved by everyday people stepping out of their comfort zones, listening to medical advise, and doing their best to help one another out even if things are scary and uncertain.

One thing we do *know* works against this disease and many others are vaccinations. Are they *perfect*? No, of course not, and demanding perfection is utterly pointless. Nothing is ever safe and certain in this world, best get over that now if you haven't already. However, vaccinations are undeniably the *best* solution humanity has ever come up with to fight diseases before they can cause damage. We know the alternative to coronavirus vaccinations, we've lived it since the start of last year. It's death and economic hardship and separation from loved ones, sometimes temporary, other times permanently. To put it as a choice between economic shutdown or a terrible disease is to miss the point. It's *both* and it will remain both until coronavirus is brought under control because economies are vulnerable to uncertainty and a disease that can affect anyone at practically anytime is a textbook example of uncertainty. To fight it, we need to use not only the *best* weapon we have-vaccinations-but all the other ones too.

Anyway, I understand tensions run high with topics like this, but it's worth remembering that we're all in it together and in this particular instance, division doesn't just cost time and money- it costs lives.


----------



## spaceconvoy

Why should certain governments be allowed to avoid paying their share of research and development? Private corporations have to pay all their costs without the ability to print money, spend on deficits, or increase taxes. Are politicians in India and South Africa really prioritizing vaccine production, or trying to retain power by avoiding unpopular measures? Yes, we should be pooling everything we have to fight covid together, governments included. 'Social good' is a two-sided coin.


----------



## tgfencer

spaceconvoy said:


> 'Social good' is a two-sided coin.



I agree with you and I don't think anyone ever said it wasn't. Or that the costs shouldn't be shared. But since the Bayh-Dole Act in 1980, the U.S. has been funding medical research (and other types of research) that it routinely doesn't profit from directly (although corporations do, and, theoretically, the citizens often benefit as a result). Federal support for the coronavirus vaccines was nothing new or out of the ordinary in form or function, except perhaps in absolute terms of money and resources, but the economic cost of not funding them would have been far greater.

Also, just as a matter of interest, the U.S. the last few years before covid routinely spent around 40 billion a year on foreign aid. This sounds like a lot, but it was less than 1% of the budget in 2019 (which, coincidentally, is a lower percentage of our GDP than many other nations spend on foreign aid). Now, from what I've gathered from various news articles, federal funding for covid vaccines development in the US is estimated to range from 20-40 billion. Even if it was more than that by ten billion or so, it would still be under 1% of the budget. When you consider that federal covid recovery spending has been in the ballpark of 3-3.5 _trillion_, I'm not sure penny-pinching on the R&D budget matters all that much. If one wanted to be cynical about it, the good global PR from sharing vaccines would be more valuable than the odd billion recouped.


----------



## Noodle Soup

I skipped a lot of these posts but I'm over 65 and diabetic (Viet Nam Agent Orange) I've had both Pfizer shots. The second one gave me a reaction that seems to have all most killed me. My wife called the ambulance service and between the medics and the night in the hospital I made it. As for me, I would say I would do it again. Like I said, I'm a Viet Nam vet. Life is not without risks and you are not going to get out of here alive. Sua Sponte for those that know what that means.


----------



## Jovidah

Right now in western countries it feels like the problem isn't money, it's too many people being stupidly misinformed anti-vax idiots. Which is frankly just appaling considering how stringent the testing procedures in the EU and the US are... it's not like you're getting some prototype experiment that barely made it past the rodent & primate stages. I could understand this suspicion when it comes to Sputnik or Sinovac, since those countries don't exactly have the best interests of western countries at heart, but all the western-developed vaccines are all based on pretty solid research and test phases long before they ever made it to mass production. Even if you think big pharma only cares about money, you should be confident in the knowledge that _dead patients can't spend money_, so they have an interest in their vaccine not killing people and actually working.

Frankly I find it appalling that we have people in western countries holding their noses denying vaccines at the same time that many people in countries less fortunate are desperate for them and can't get them - whether the reason is money or just plain lack of supply. If the effects were only limited to those not taking vaccines I'd be inclined to say that's Darwin working at its finest but sadly it doesn't work that way. The more people walk around unvaccinated, the higher the chances are that the virus will remain widely prevalent and mutate into something that our current vaccines _don't _protect against. So with all their baseless tinfoil hat shenanigans they're literally endangering all of us. It's like trying to keep a sinking ship while a bunch of wankers keep sawing more holes in the bottom because 'muh freedom', or because they drank too much of the misinformation kool-aid. We run the risk of these idiots essentially sinking the ship for all of us.

When it comes to parents not giving their children widely accepted vaccines that have been used for decades; frankly those people should just be sued for child abuse. They're wilfully endangering the lives of not only their own child but also the children around them, and sadly the child itself never had any say about it. There's still kids dying in western countries to diseases that we have safe and functioning vaccines for.


----------



## inferno

Jovidah said:


> Right now in western countries it feels like the problem isn't money, it's too many people being stupidly misinformed anti-vax idiots. Which is frankly just appaling considering how stringent the testing procedures in the EU and the US are... it's not like you're getting some prototype experiment that barely made it past the rodent & primate stages. I could understand this suspicion when it comes to Sputnik or Sinovac, since those countries don't exactly have the best interests of western countries at heart, but all the western-developed vaccines are all based on pretty solid research and test phases long before they ever made it to mass production. Even if you think big pharma only cares about money, you should be confident in the knowledge that _dead patients can't spend money_, so they have an interest in their vaccine not killing people and actually working.
> 
> Frankly I find it appalling that we have people in western countries holding their noses denying vaccines at the same time that many people in countries less fortunate are desperate for them and can't get them - whether the reason is money or just plain lack of supply. If the effects were only limited to those not taking vaccines I'd be inclined to say that's Darwin working at its finest but sadly it doesn't work that way. The more people walk around unvaccinated, the higher the chances are that the virus will remain widely prevalent and mutate into something that our current vaccines _don't _protect against. So with all their baseless tinfoil hat shenanigans they're literally endangering all of us. It's like trying to keep a sinking ship while a bunch of wankers keep sawing more holes in the bottom because 'muh freedom', or because they drank too much of the misinformation kool-aid. We run the risk of these idiots essentially sinking the ship for all of us.
> 
> When it comes to parents not giving their children widely accepted vaccines that have been used for decades; frankly those people should just be sued for child abuse. They're wilfully endangering the lives of not only their own child but also the children around them, and sadly the child itself never had any say about it. There's still kids dying in western countries to diseases that we have safe and functioning vaccines for.



you have nothing to worry about if you're waxxed man. so why worry?
don't you trust the vaccines? trust the science.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

+1 Jovida anti vaccines don't realize because the herd has gotten shots it makes it safer for
the anti vaccines. If none be like 100 years ago
Crippled, all kinds of deadly virus & bacteria. That destroy health or kill you.


----------



## ian

Jovidah said:


> When it comes to parents not giving their children widely accepted vaccines that have been used for decades; frankly those people should just be sued for child abuse.



Don’t be too harsh on the individual parents. They’re trying to do their best for their kids while operating with faulty information. If you’re immersed in that ecosystem it’s hard to think otherwise.

Edit: I guess the same sentiment could be applied to covid vaccine skeptics, although my gut reaction is stronger there. But for me, it’s hard to dismiss 30-40% of the country as idiots or whatever. With numbers that big, individual people aren’t as much to blame. There’s just too much indoctrination / misinformation. Burn the system! Or something.


----------



## Kippington

Far out, imagine if driving on one side of the road was not yet a thing in the modern world, and the current government tried to introduce the laws around it to help reduce deaths and increase public safety.

_*"They threw me in jail for exercising my right to drive on the other side of the highway... The outrage!"*





_

For the record - Yes, I am aware that it's not the best idea to blindly follow orders from the government.


----------



## Jovidah

My patience for people's ignorance gets rather limited once it starts getting in the way of other people's health. Personal choice is all fine and dandy, but the problem is that the choice antivaxers make doesn't only impact themselves. It has a strong potential to negatively impact the rest of us, and keep this corona thing going far longer and far stronger than it has to. Ignorance is not a valid excuse.

When it comes to 30-40% of the country being idiots, I think both sides of the political spectrum are in full agreement on this... the only aspect they conflict on is which segment of the population is the idiots.


----------



## inferno

yeah well i just don't see why vaxxed people care what non vaxxed do? i mean they're vaxxed right.
doesn't vaxxed people believe their vaxx is working? then why even take it?

as to vaxx or no. i guess its one of those eternal questions. does god exist or not? stainless or carbon? etc etc.
and the non vaxxers will never be convinced of vaxx, and the vaxxed are just the opposite.

and thats why we have the choice. we don't always get to decide what we want regarding other people. 
(almost) everyone thats wants to be vaxxed can do so.


----------



## Jovidah

It's not that simple... if large amounts of people don't get vaccinated you essentially generate a large human reservoir population where the virus can reproduce and mutate unchecked, and this can result in strains where the vaccines no longer work. This is what's already happening with the delta strain to some extent; several existing vaccines have significantly lower effect, and this is why you see some countries like Israel already moving towards a third shot (and some vaccines will probably fall out of favor). So the big risk is that antivaxxers are gambling our silver bullet away. It's also for this reason that vaccines should be available worldwide, even if your only concerns are selfish ones.

Another problem is that it just needlessly extends this crisis for all of us simply because many unvaccinated people are going to keep getting sick. Now we have a fairly efficient tool that's tested, safe - chances of complications are far smaller than of winning the lottery - and available... yet some people refuse to use it. Do they want to wait until it mutates to Spanish flu levels of lethality before they take it seriously?
By choosing not to get vaccinated, antivaxxers are indirectly choosing for the rest of us... and all we can hope is that their number is small enough to not have an impact.

When it comes to antivax parents for the 'regular' shots it's even more simple IMO... the child didn't get a choice. Parents are making that choice for the child, and this can mean that they are choosing to expose the child unnecessarily to sickness or even death. That to me is child abuse. The sad problem here is that vaccines are largely victim of their own succes; we're not really aware of how useful they are because we don't notice it when nothing goes wrong. Few are old enough to know how different things used to be before vaccines were a thing.

I'm not even sure why we're even having debates about whether to get vaccinated in 2021. As far as I know this was a non-issue a few decades ago? Maybe because you had less foreign governments pumping targeted misinformation through the internet back then...


----------



## riba

At the moment I am more concerned about people who would like to vaccinate but do not have access. If you are too, please consider contributing to covax .


----------



## Barmoley

rstcso said:


> They are not free. In my case, my insurance plan was charged for mine. Next year, my plan rates will go up. If my insurance hadn't paid, there are federal programs available to pay for the vaccine. Anyone paying federal taxes are funding these programs (more likely, our descendants will be). Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm not aware of any program where the companies producing the vaccines are providing them to the public at no charge.


They are functionally free, in a sense that anyone can go into one of the places with or without insurance and get a vaccine. Yes, society pays for it, it is not free. It wouldn’t be free even of companies gave it to everyone for free since that would mean that shareholders or employees or government paid for it. You can’t produce anything truly free. What I was saying was that in the US anyone can get a vaccine who wants it without money being a barrier.


----------



## tostadas

In general I would not normally care if people decide not to vax. That's their own risk.

But in this case, I have a serious issue with it because my child is currently not eligible to vaccinate due to age. And just because my family is vaccinated, that does not mean that we cannot still get infected and spread to others (specifically talking about young unvaccinated children). So with all these people out there asking me why I care if I am already vaccinated, this is why. I don't want to bring it home to my child who doesn't even have the option yet.

Once he does get vaccinated, I could really care less about whether the 99% or whatever of unvaccinated people making up the population of intensive care units due to the disease live or die. At that point, it will no longer be any of my concern.


----------



## riba

tostadas said:


> Once he does get vaccinated, I could really care less about whether the 99% or whatever of unvaccinated people making up the population of intensive care units due to the disease live or die. At that point, it will no longer be any of my concern.


Except that hospital resources are wasted.


----------



## Bill13

People need to chill if they have been vacinnated, just ask Joe:


----------



## MarcelNL

Don't ask any presiden, who usually do not have any medical training let alone in Virology) to explain things that are captured by numbers that are already explained by Key opinion leaders in the field....those clearly tell the tale, yes you can get Covid but are far less likely to (remember the % for protection for the various vaccines was not 100%, and that this number decreased with the delta variant?), but the big elephant But(t) in the room is that the seriousness of the disease is vastly decreased once you are fully vaccinated.


----------



## deskjockey

rstcso said:


> They are not free. In my case, my insurance plan was charged for mine. Next year, my plan rates will go up. If my insurance hadn't paid, there are federal programs available to pay for the vaccine. Anyone paying federal taxes are funding these programs (more likely, our descendants will be). Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm not aware of any program where the companies producing the vaccines are providing them to the public at no charge.



Exactly! There really isn't any free ride IMHO. Whether I pay for my vaccine in future insurance premium increases or higher federal income taxes is an open question but, the cost isn't covered the "tooth fairy" either. As noted, some real has to pay for the vaccines whether it is myself indirectly, or not.



gregfisk said:


> As far as I know the vaccines are free in the US. I’m not aware of anywhere in the US that you have to pay for a shot(s).



Being asked to pay or not pay "a copay" is not equivalent to free! At least free from cost. Someone still pays upfront and you pay indirectly in increased costs somewhere else.


----------



## ian

Jovidah said:


> My patience for people's ignorance gets rather limited once it starts getting in the way of other people's health. Personal choice is all fine and dandy, but the problem is that the choice antivaxers make doesn't only impact themselves. It has a strong potential to negatively impact the rest of us, and keep this corona thing going far longer and far stronger than it has to. Ignorance is not a valid excuse.



I'm not debating the importance of getting vaxed. My point is that blaming the individuals for not educating themselves is somewhat similar to other personal responsibility rhetoric like "black people are economically disadvantaged because they're lazy", to cite an extreme example. When .05% of the population decides to go against something, ok, maybe they're just stubborn or whatever, but when a huge percentage does, it's because there's other stuff at work. Some of the media ecosystems that people live in nowadays are so closed off that it's almost like blaming Neo for not knowing about the real world.



Jovidah said:


> When it comes to 30-40% of the country being idiots, I think both sides of the political spectrum are in full agreement on this... the only aspect they conflict on is which segment of the population is the idiots.



That's a large part of the problem, and it just propagates the entrenchment, which is one reason why I don't say this. The other is that it's not true. It's not possible that such a huge percentage of the country is irredeemable.


----------



## deskjockey

tcmx3 said:


> while you're not technically wrong, Barmoley is more correct here because from a behavioral standpoint the people getting the vaccines are not having to pay anything out of pocket, and as such it's more appropriate to view them as free.
> 
> I have to say though it's very disappointing that so many people look at the world on fire and all they want to talk about is money.



With a Wall Street or Welfare State mentality, what do you expect?


----------



## deskjockey

riba said:


> At the moment I am more concerned about people who would like to vaccinate but do not have access. If you are too, please consider contributing to covax .



And if you have vaccines that the local population won't take, send to an area with people that want them!


----------



## deskjockey

tostadas said:


> In general I would not normally care if people decide not to vax. That's their own risk.
> 
> But in this case, I have a serious issue with it because my child is currently not eligible to vaccinate due to age. And just because my family is vaccinated, that does not mean that we cannot still get infected and spread to others (specifically talking about young unvaccinated children). So with all these people out there asking me why I care if I am already vaccinated, this is why. I don't want to bring it home to my child who doesn't even have the option yet.
> 
> Once he does get vaccinated, I could really care less about whether the 99% or whatever of unvaccinated people making up the population of intensive care units due to the disease live or die. At that point, it will no longer be any of my concern.



Darwinism wins! Like you, having a patient in a COVID isolation unit pleading for a vaccination is ironic! Or a mother in a hospital ward saying "I didn't know it would be this bad"!

To certain extent, this will cull the ignorant from society and inflict collateral damage on others.



riba said:


> Except that hospital resources are wasted.



Exactly and it denies other need services from people in need. Having a heart attack? Need cancer treatment? ...


----------



## CA_cook

Sadly, natural selection is a very slow process. 

Antivaxxers are fundamentally free riders, i.e. they get a free ride on the herd immunity achieved by all the other people who get vaccinated. The problem starts when we have too many of those freeriders. Sadly, this is where we are right now. My whole family is vaccinated, so in theory I don‘t care abut people who refuse the vaccine that has proven very safe and astonishingly effective. In practice, their resistance to the shot brings a bunch of inconveniences even to the daily life in the society. I have to wear a mask when I fly, a lot of businesses are still not up to 100% because of lingering COVID restrictions. To get closer to the topic of this group, restaurant kitchens are hot places, i cannot imagine how stifling it feels to wear a mask there. I am sure the quality of food suffers when a line cook is suffocating. Those are first world problems, but there are much more serious consequences: unless the population is at herd immunity the virus will keep mutating and spreading. That (a) kills some innocent people (i don’t really care that much about anti-vaxxers), and (b) puts needless strain on the hospital system. If I have a heart attack, I would love to be treated right away without waiting for a rapid COVID test, etc. Unless e vaccinate the whole world, the virus will keep mutating, but unless the US is at herd immunity, we will continue to be vulnerable to those mutated strains. This is not a good outlook. 
Fundamentally, freeriding is unamerican, so I would like the freeriders to pay their fair share. I’d love to see the employers to issue vaccination mandates for any position that spends significant amount of time inside (with true medical exceptions of cours).


----------



## gregfisk

CA_cook said:


> Sadly, natural selection is a very slow process.
> 
> Antivaxxers are fundamentally free riders, i.e. they get a free ride on the herd immunity achieved by all the other people who get vaccinated. The problem starts when we have too many of those freeriders. Sadly, this is where we are right now. My whole family is vaccinated, so in theory I don‘t care abut people who refuse the vaccine that has proven very safe and astonishingly effective. In practice, their resistance to the shot brings a bunch of inconveniences even to the daily life in the society. I have to wear a mask when I fly, a lot of businesses are still not up to 100% because of lingering COVID restrictions. To get closer to the topic of this group, restaurant kitchens are hot places, i cannot imagine how stifling it feels to wear a mask there. I am sure the quality of food suffers when a line cook is suffocating. Those are first world problems, but there are much more serious consequences: unless the population is at herd immunity the virus will keep mutating and spreading. That (a) kills some innocent people (i don’t really care that much about anti-vaxxers), and (b) puts needless strain on the hospital system. If I have a heart attack, I would love to be treated right away without waiting for a rapid COVID test, etc. Unless e vaccinate the whole world, the virus will keep mutating, but unless the US is at herd immunity, we will continue to be vulnerable to those mutated strains. This is not a good outlook.
> Fundamentally, freeriding is unamerican, so I would like the freeriders to pay their fair share. I’d love to see the employers to issue vaccination mandates for any position that spends significant amount of time inside (with true medical exceptions of cours).



I couldn’t agree more.


----------



## JDA_NC

deskjockey said:


> Isn't this why our nation (USA) was founded (to avoid religious persecution among the primary concerns)?



The United States of America was founded - like most other countries - on the principles of power and profit. It ain't freedom, Jack...


----------



## Nemo

While Mods have been fairly lenient in the Covid threads, I would caution that some recent posts are getting pretty close to political or ideological commentary, which is not appropriate on KKF and is more suited to a platform such as Twitter.


----------



## LostHighway

Nemo said:


> While Mods have been fairly lenient in the Covid threads, I would caution that some recent posts are getting pretty close to political or ideological commentary, which is not appropriate on KKF and is more suited to a platform such as Twitter.


----------



## ian

Nemo said:


> While Mods have been fairly lenient in the Covid threads, I would caution that some recent posts are getting pretty close to political or ideological commentary, which is not appropriate on KKF and is more suited to a platform such as Twitter.



I appreciate the leniency, personally. It’s nice to have a place where people can discuss their opinions without everything devolving into a flame war. I feel like the common knife connection helps with that. It’s also hard to put any nuance into 140 characters.


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> I live in a place that has been held up (together with New Zealand) as the shining light of effective infection control.
> 
> About four weeks ago, a driver who ferried three or four air crew from the airport to their quarantine hotel ended up getting infected by one of the air crew. The driver was not vaccinated (yes, really), nor was there any requirement for him to be vaccinated (yes, really, really).
> 
> Now, about a month later, about one half of Australia's population is under lock-down because one person was all it took to spread the virus into the community. It does not help that the delta variant is far more infectious than any of the variants that preceded it. People have managed to infect someone else within 36 hours of getting infected themselves. That doesn't leave our contact tracers much of a chance
> 
> Moreover, as of now, about 13% of the Australian population has had two doses of a vaccine. Yes, you read that right: 13%. And about one third of the population has had one shot. Never mind that that many other first-world countries can boast of vaccination rates of 50% and more.



@Michi, you're not wrong... 

One thing that non-Australia readers are almost certainly not aware of is the fact that Australia actually _does_ have a sufficient supply of vaccines. But there is nuance to that....

At the beginning of the pandemic our Government didn't diversify their supply chain. They opted for an Australian manufacturing approach. On face value this approach sounds good... it lowers supply risk and develops local expertise and knowledge. Unfortunately the plan fell apart. The Australian UQ-CSL vaccine disappeared into the night as it induced false-positive HIV results. The TGA approved CSL to manufacture the AstraZeneca vaccine in Melbourne in march. The government filled a 50 million dose order and output was expected to be one million doses per week. 

Another blow. In April, the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) advised the Government that the AstraZeneca vaccine only be used on people over 50. This was due to evidence of a _very_ low-risk of serious complications (clotting) from the vaccine. Later in June, ATAGI revised their advice and recommended AstraZeneca for people over 60. In both cases the Pfizer vaccine was recommended as the preferred option for those under the age threshold. The Government elected to follow ATAGI's advice on both occasions. After betting on other options, Australia was late to place an order for Pfizer - leading to a chronic shortage. 

This puts Australia in a strange position where we have a sufficient supply of vaccines (AstraZeneca) - yet a _shortage_ of the preferred vaccine (Pfizer). While much can be said about Australia's vaccine rollout, the situation appeared to 'work' until recently. We could claim that our tough stance on border movements and quarantine kept our population safe. Given these 'safe' conditions, we could reason that the risks of AstraZeneca outweighed the benefits. We would wait our turn for a large shipment of Pfizer. In retrospect we are all brilliant... it turns out the Delta strain provided a good reason to revisit previous assumptions.

The prevailing attitude to AstraZeneca in Australia is regrettable. In reality it is a modern miracle - a wonder. In the absence of any other vaccine options, a significant portion of our population would be vaccinated right now. It is not easy to do the social calculus on benefits or harm of various options - both on health and living standards. I don't envy anyone in that situation. But dare I say it, we were willing to be vaccine snobs before June. The ugly tit-for-tat amongst the Federal Government, State Governments and advisory bodies we are now seeing is perhaps a public renegotiation of that position.


In practice what does this mean? Currently we are in a phase that is vaccinating >=40 year olds (including frontline staff, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and disabled people). This is done through a sparse network of clinics. Again Pfizer is preferred for under 50's. It is practically impossible for people younger than 40 to get a Pfizer dose. If they want a vaccine they will have to speak to their GP and ask for an AstraZeneca dose. But GPs have had unpredictable quantities of the vaccine and may not be willing to practice against the advisory body's advice (ATAGI). The situation is complex and the messaging has been clear as mud. This has not helped doctors or patients...


----------



## deskjockey

JDA_NC said:


> The United States of America was founded - like most other countries - on the principles of power and profit. It ain't freedom, Jack...



Any facts to back up that claim? Sure, colonial conquest may have started a lot of exploration but, to suggest the masses looking for freedom from persecution were really traveling the Atlantic under sail at great personal peril were really there for "power and profit" has no support in factual history I am aware of other than the slaves sold by their countryman in Africa.


----------



## chefwp

Michi said:


> Thank you for sharing.
> 
> Hmmm… I'm guessing that you do know how to spell "sesquipedalianism"?
> 
> PS: If you want your message to be received by people without a tertiary degree, making your sentences shorter would be in your interest.


So would your advice be to eschew obfuscation?


----------



## inferno

the way i see it. everybody will get corona sooner or later. vaxxed or not. i said it 2 years ago. 
and i'm saying it again.

herd immunity will probably never come.

viruses mutate, thats how they evolve. and a few major mutations down the line the vaccines will not work at all. 
we have an 8 billion population. and many live in poor countries. they will never get vaccinated. 
so the mutations will go on and on and on.

this is not a normal virus and the chinese knew that goddamn well right from the start. 
thats why they welded peoples doors shut and locked them in to either survive or die. 
this is obviously a "non normal" virus. feel free to interpret this however you like. 
i mean you can be infected and spread it and not even knowing it, and never become sick. 
that should tell you something.

and on top of that the vaccines are not 100%, some are even really ****** like 2% effective.

and on top of that since they are not actual real vaccines to even begin with 
you can still get infected with the virus, you can still spread it, and it can still mutate in your body.
this is quite dangerous. people "knowing they're safe" spreading it like crazy. 

now just because something mutates doesn't need to mean its getting more dangerous. 
most mutations never spread at all since its not a favorable mutation for spreading. 
the mutations that spread are the ones best adapted to just that, spreading, better than the old version. 
could be bad, could be good.

freeriding? in case you guys haven't noticed, this is all we do here in the western world, and have been for a very long time. 
you see this is why we are rich and the rest are poor. its a bit late now to say sorry.

and with all this info i say: why the **** even bother with vaccines? in the long run its not gonna do jack ****.

the current vaccines are medical experiments with no long time testing. 
and no one is responsible if you get sick or die from them in a few years, 
except from yourself of course.

if you think its gonna help, take it. i'm of a different opinion.


----------



## Luftmensch

ian said:


> It’s also hard to put any nuance into 140 characters.



So true... I dont use Twitter (or Facebook for that matter)... As I understand it... the character limit is one of the reasons it is a steaming heap.

I actually had a response rattling around my head about your previous post (in relation to social media):



ian said:


> My point is that blaming the individuals for not educating themselves is somewhat similar to other personal responsibility rhetoric like "black people are economically disadvantaged because they're lazy", to cite an extreme example.



I am a bit anxious/concerned about drawing a connection between this modern phenomena of disinformation and people who are indentured to low socioeconomic mobility. There is no question - poor people are disadvantaged because they are victims of structural failure. Escaping that disadvantage is a battle every step of the way.

I feel 'victims' of disinformation are different. I would say that journalism took a nosedive 30... maybe 40 years ago. It became increasingly political and partisan. Part of this is driven by the profit incentive. The effect this had on society was turbo charged in the past 10-15 years by social media. People can now choose their preferred discussion and spheres of influence.

It is looking increasingly like evidence of a fragile state (ok... a bit dramatic). It is true... you _will_ be influenced by your family and friends. It might even be damned hard work to escape those biases. For instance, you can't choose who you are born to... or who you grow up with. It is probably true that poor people have limited autonomy over their peers/friends.

But the problem is people are now disagreeing on fundamental issues. I will unfairly pick on one phrase you used:



ian said:


> blaming the individuals for not educating themselves



I understand the broad sentiment of your post (and perhaps agree)... But the reason why I want to single out this phrase is this: while I don't expect citizens to all become nobel laureates... it doesn't take much 'education' to agree on basic civic principles like "hey, this is the chief medical adviser... maybe I should listen to him instead of old wheezy jim"... or.... "I trust doctors and they say modern vaccines have been effective since the 1950's maybe I should take their advice".

This is why I mention the fragile state... _I think_ current attitudes are more symptomatic of people losing trust in the Government, Institutions and experts. To be fair, in many ways some Governments have not improved the lives of many people. This leaves them feeling ignored, helpless and disaffected. I won't blame them... I blame disadvantage. I blame poor social mobility. I blame partisan ideologies. I blame social media... But unlike poverty, where you have no choice, you _can_ choose to draw lines down (often) partisan lines.

I dunno... I am thinking out loud here. Perhaps I am flying a kite before I make a decision myself - I could be drawn to a more compassionate view....


----------



## Luftmensch

chefwp said:


> So would your advice be to eschew obfuscation?



Only for people with hippopotomonstrosesquipedaliophobia


----------



## M1k3

We're not dying or suffocating in the kitchen from masks! Sweating like crazy? Sure. Getting pimples around the mouth? Sometimes.

But not suffocating. Neither are doctors and nurses that wear it just as long, if not longer.


----------



## ian

Luftmensch said:


> I am a bit anxious/concerned about drawing a connection between this modern phenomena of disinformation and people who are indentured to low socioeconomic mobility.



Yes, I should clarify that I’m not equating the two situations. I was just explaining what I meant by “personal responsibility rhetoric” by citing an extreme example of it that I thought the other poster would agree was bad.




Luftmensch said:


> it doesn't take much 'education' to agree on basic civic principles like "hey, this is the chief medical adviser... maybe I should listen to him instead of old wheezy jim"... or.... "I trust doctors and they say modern vaccines have been effective since the 1950's maybe I should take their advice".



Said like this, it seems very simple, but when people are so sorted into camps it’s so easy to dismiss even a chief medical advisor as, say, “Biden’s advisor” or “Trump’s advisor” or whatever. And it’s so easy to start discounting the authorization as “just because it was an emergency, without knowing for sure if it’s safe” if everyone you know is saying that.


----------



## Nemo

M1k3 said:


> We're not dying or suffocating in the kitchen from masks! Sweating like crazy? Sure. Getting pimples around the mouth? Sometimes.
> 
> But not suffocating. Neither are doctors and nurses that wear it just as long, if not longer.



N95s can be a fair bit more uncomfortable and are a little bit harder to breathe through but even wearing one for 16 hours at a stretch doesn't suffocate you. Sure it puts crease mark on your face, but it doesn't suffocate you.


----------



## Nemo

ian said:


> And it’s so easy to start discounting the authorization as “just because it was an emergency, without knowing for sure if it’s safe” if everyone you know is saying that.



One silver lining with Australia's relaxed vaccine roll-out (often referred to as the "strollout") is that there were no emergency authorisations. Our TGA (Therapeutic Goods Authority- equivalent to the US FDA and also a very competent, independent statutory body) provided a full (non-emergency) authorisation for each vaccine that we have available.

This did provide extra reassurance. However your point about people in information bubbles is well made.


----------



## CA_cook

(I hope this post does not cross into a political realm). Freedom is never absolute, even in the USA. We do not allow people to engage in behaviors that reasonably endanger other people or communal property (i.e. you cannot discharge a firearm in a crowded residential neighborhood; you cannot own or drive a tank on your suburban street, you cannot drive a car with broken headlights, etc.). We even try to protect people from behavior that harms themselves (example: seatbelt laws or not serving drunk people at bars). COVID measures are in that vein, there is a reason why it is called public health, Because they are not necessarily designed to protect you, but rather to protect the public. Mandating vaccination is another way to protect the public and to get life back to normal. The economic toll from COVID is already enormous, we don’t need to add to it.


----------



## CA_cook

@inferno I respect your opinion, but your post if full of false information. You say this is not a normal virus, this is false. There are known viruses that are more transmissible or more deadly than covid, so it’s characteristics are not something unique on their own. 

There is a solid scientific reason for why the mRNA vaccines are effective against variants. These vaccines target the pre-fusion conformation of the spike protein, which targets the ACE2 receptor on the human cells. As long as the ACE2 recepor does not mutate in humans (and it does not), the chances of the virus evading the vaccine are quite small (if virus mutates in a way that doee not recognize the antibody, it wont recognize ACE2 receptor either and will become effectively harmless). 

You say these are not real vaccines- they are 100% real. The purpose of a vaccine is to protect an individual from becoming sick. mRNA vaccines do that with astonishing efficiency. Most of the hospitalization and death cases in the US right now are among the unvaccinated (97%+), this is phenomenal efficiency.

You say that these vaccines are an experiment, you are ignoring 10+ years of mRNA vaccine technology development. That you don’t know about it does not mean that it didnt not exist. It is true that we do not have long-term data on the current vaccines, but keep in mind that mRNA lasts in your body only for about one day, so what kind of long-term side effects are you talking about? Where would they come from? 

You say that in the long run it is not doing to do anything. Neither you nor I have a crystal ball, but I can see what vaccines have done in the short run. The restaurants in my suburban USA town are thriving, and most were on the brink of death less than a year ago. There is only one reason for that- vaccines. 90% of my town’s population have gotten at least one shot. This is the reason why life started to feel normal. Please don’t spread misinformation. I also urge you to get vaccinated. It is safe, efficient and free. Just Do It.


----------



## Luftmensch

ian said:


> Yes, I should clarify that I’m not equating the two situations. I was just explaining what I meant by “personal responsibility rhetoric” by citing an extreme example of it that I thought the other poster would agree was bad.



Definitely! I understood the substance of your original remark... I don't mean to back you into a corner you never created 



ian said:


> Said like this, it seems very simple, but when people are so sorted into camps it’s so easy to dismiss even a chief medical advisor as, say, “Biden’s advisor” or “Trump’s advisor” or whatever. And it’s so easy to start discounting the authorization as “just because it was an emergency, without knowing for sure if it’s safe” if everyone you know is saying that.



Definitely. I empathise with your point of view. I guess it is something I am struggling with. I hope that is evident in my previous post? I do acknowledge the many ways we can exist in disjoint camps or information silos. Given how much our family, colleagues and peers can influence us - a great deal of that exposure is not by choice...

The thing is... you are right... it is not an individual's fault public discourse is partisan, aggressive and takes place in a toxic information environment. Maybe it is more compassionate to empathise with the context people form their opinions in? I still can't bring myself to absolve tribal thinkers of all personal responsibility. The world is complex. I have no problem if people are not informed. But that needs to be paired with a humility that their opinion holds less weight in the discussion... I suppose this is the part that rubs me up the wrong way? People are living their lives with opinions and attitudes that appear to be motivated by extreme individualism. What happened to a bit of community thinking and trying to respect others? Forget about critical thinking... what about good manners!??

We've turned our economies into a dog-eat-dog jungle that serves to maximise profitability rather than social fabric. Social media make us think we all ought to have opinions and be the centre of attention. I do despair for the Anglosphere (only because it is what I know). We've forgotten that we live in a community and appear to be tearing cohesion apart...


----------



## inferno

CA_cook said:


> Mandating vaccination is another way to protect the public and to get life back to normal. The economic toll from COVID is already enormous, we don’t need to add to it.



the thing is that its very illegal. the vaccines are experimental and therefor forcing people to take them is classed as a human medical experiment.
and thats highly illegal. and against human rights. you need consent. we all rememeber germany ww2. this is what they did there.

its also illegal to discraiminate against people not willing to partake in said medical experiments.


----------



## inferno

CA_cook said:


> @inferno
> There is a solid scientific reason for why the mRNA vaccines are effective against variants.



you see thats is definitely not so right now with the "delta" variant. you do the math.


----------



## M1k3

Nemo said:


> N95s can be a fair bit more uncomfortable and are a little bit harder to breathe through but even wearing one for 16 hours at a stretch doesn't suffocate you. Sure it puts crease mark on your face, but it doesn't suffocate you.


I didn't quote the specific person because reasons....but meant it as a reply to it. Maybe they weren't being literal, just wanted to give the point of view from someone that works in hot kitchen.


----------



## Luftmensch

@ian... one more thing...

I should say... I don't mean to put all unvaccinated people into the box I was describing!

I think that box is a small polarised group of people from all sides of the political spectrum. Since 'spectrum' sounds one dimensional... let's call it a political manifold  - these days people can't easily be sandboxed as either 'left' or 'right'.

I am hoping that the stall in vaccination rate is due to collective apathy? Neither vehemently against vaccination... nor thoroughly pro-vaccination. Perhaps these people have more immediate concerns/worries in their lives? Perhaps they believe the threat of COVID is fading away? Perhaps vaccine distribution is not easily accessible for them? I dunno! I would prefer to believe this is the case... if you can understand why these people are hesitant, you can potentially work with them. I doubt there is much chance of working with polarized groups.... though it is still worth trying.


----------



## CA_cook

inferno said:


> the thing is that its very illegal. the vaccines are experimental and therefor forcing people to take them is classed as a human medical experiment.
> and thats highly illegal. and against human rights. you need consent. we all rememeber germany ww2. this is what they did there.
> 
> its also illegal to discraiminate against people not willing to partake in said medical experiments.


This is false. You are confusing this with clinical trials. Clinical trials are experiments. Clinical trials have been done and vaccines have been authorized by FDA under emergency authorization protocol. Several courts have already affirmed the rights of institutions to require COVID vaccinations. Your comparison with WW2 medical experiments is preposterous and wrong.


----------



## CA_cook

inferno said:


> you see thats is definitely not so right now with the "delta" variant. you do the math.



You don't know the facts. mRNA vaccines are at least 88% effective against Delta variant. That's pretty effective, do the math. I already explained to you the reasons why they are effective.


----------



## Nemo

M1k3 said:


> I didn't quote the specific person because reasons....but meant it as a reply to it. Maybe they weren't being literal, just wanted to give the point of view from someone that works in hot kitchen.


Yeah- I did understand the context of your reply. I guess I was trying to reinforce your point that while it's annoying to have to wear masks, it doesn't significantly interfere with your breathing, even with an N95.

I'd personally rather be at work in an N95 than out of a job.


----------



## CA_cook

Nemo said:


> N95s can be a fair bit more uncomfortable and are a little bit harder to breathe through but even wearing one for 16 hours at a stretch doesn't suffocate you. Sure it puts crease mark on your face, but it doesn't suffocate you.


A friend is a dentist and she complained pretty loudly about wearing N95 during the day at work. And she works in an air-conditioned office,not in a hot kitchen. Sure, N95 is not the end of the world, but it is pretty damn uncomfortable during long-term use.


----------



## deskjockey

CA_cook said:


> (I hope this post does not cross into a political realm). Freedom is never absolute, even in the USA. We do not allow people to engage in behaviors that reasonably endanger other people or communal property (i.e. you cannot discharge a firearm in a crowded residential neighborhood; *you cannot own or drive a tank on your suburban street, you cannot drive a car with broken headlights, *etc.). We even try to protect people from behavior that harms themselves (*example: seatbelt laws or not serving drunk people at bars*). COVID measures are in that vein, there is a reason why it is called public health, Because they are not necessarily designed to protect you, but rather to protect the public. Mandating vaccination is another way to protect the public and to get life back to normal. The economic toll from COVID is already enormous, we don’t need to add to it.



There is a difference between a "right" and a "privilege". Driving is not a right, it is a privilege.

Seatbelts are related to a privilege. I'm not a constitutional scholar but, alcohol is a privilege to the best of my knowledge.

Regarding COVID and other medical practices, the only outright "rights" related to this are tied to religious freedom. However, it is important to remember that the Government (state) has sterilized people in the past with various mental disabilities and the Federal Government has performed open air public exposure tests with infectious agents and, Federal Government agencies have done things like testing with LSD with questionable consent, or lack thereof, of the participants in the tests.

While I am generally a strong advocate for vaccination in general, forcing them on someone who isn't a participant in large social gatherings or intimate settings with members of the public at large should be given a choice and live with restrictions to prevent infecting the general public. For groups that have no choice in exposing others, like school children in public schools, vaccinations should be mandatory. If they are home schooled, then I am more flexible on mandatory compulsory vaccinations for them.

In terms of false information leading people to deeply flawed beliefs, there is very little that can be done other than constant outreach with unbiased factual information. Thimerosal is a topic of antivaxxers but, is it even in use today? The public at large generally doesn't understand mRNA so, is it any wonder rumors of genetic engineering and other effects are a trending topic in the Antivaxxer fringe communities? I'm at a loss to understand the embedded chip from Bill Gates conspiracy though I have some questions about some of the Gates Foundation initiatives.

Unfortunately, driven by litigation and sensational NEWS reporting, a lot of people are overly focused on the potential of negative effects. What they miss are the benefits versus the risk of an adverse reaction and the risk of getting the disease the vaccine protects against. Relative risk is foreign concept to people at large. If I don't live in fear of being struck by lightning, why should I live in fear of having some more rare and unlikely side-effect of an immunization? Granted though, I do generally have a choice regarding vaccination but, I also can seek shelter during a storm to avoid a lightning strike as one example of many.


----------



## CA_cook

deskjockey said:


> There is a difference between a "right" and a "privilege". Driving is not a right, it is a privilege.
> Seatbelts are related to a privilege. I'm not a constitutional scholar but, alcohol is a privilege to the best of my knowledge.
> Regarding COVID and other medical practices, the only outright "rights" related to this are tied to religious freedom. However, it is important to remember that the Government (state) has sterilized people in the past with various mental disabilities and the Federal Government has performed open air public exposure tests with infectious agents and, Federal Government agencies have done things like testing with LSD with questionable consent, or lack thereof, of the participants in the tests.
> 
> While I am generally a strong advocate for vaccination in general, forcing them on someone who isn't a participant in large social gatherings or intimate settings with members of the public at large should be given a choice and live with restrictions to prevent infecting the general public. For groups that have no choice in exposing others, like school children in public schools, vaccinations should be mandatory. If they are home schooled, then I am more flexible on mandatory compulsory vaccinations for them.
> 
> In terms of false information leading people to deeply flawed beliefs, there is very little that can be done other than constant outreach with unbiased factual information. Thimerosal is a topic of antivaxxers but, is it even in use today? The public at large generally doesn't understand mRNA so, is it any wonder rumors of genetic engineering and other effects are a trending topic in the Antivaxxer fringe communities? I'm at a loss to understand the embedded chip from Bill Gates conspiracy though I have some questions about some of the Gates Foundation initiatives.
> 
> Unfortunately, driven by litigation and sensational NEWS reporting, a lot of people are overly focused on the potential of negative effects. What they miss are the benefits versus the risk of an adverse reaction and the risk of getting the disease the vaccine protects against. Relative risk is foreign concept to people at large. If I don't live in fear of being struck by lightning, why should I live in fear of having some more rare and unlikely side-effect of an immunization? Granted though, I do generally have a choice regarding vaccination but, I also can seek shelter during a storm to avoid a lightning strike as one example of many.



Agree with a lot of what you said. I will actually be OK if unvaccinated people are not allowed on planes or buses, movie theaters, concert halls, etc. This is what they did in Israel more or less. And at some point it becomes only about risks and benefits. Just imagine what could happen is a more dangerous virus, e.g. smallpox, gets reintroduced into circulation. My bet is that the governments will mandate the smallpox vaccine in no time (some of the older folks have that shot, but a lot of the younger adults didn't get it after smallpox was declared eradicated).


----------



## riba

CA_cook said:


> This is false. You are confusing this with clinical trials. Clinical trials are experiments. Clinical trials have been done and vaccines have been authorized by FDA under emergency authorization protocol. Several courts have already affirmed the rights of institutions to require COVID vaccinations. Your comparison with WW2 medical experiments is preposterous and wrong.


+1000

Any comparison with WW2 is completely out of line. Ridiculous


----------



## Michi

chefwp said:


> So would your advice be to eschew obfuscation?


Indeed, I'd be inclined to concur with that proposition, and not only tentatively


----------



## riba

inferno said:


> you see thats is definitely not so right now with the "delta" variant. you do the math.


I'd say they're still impressively effective.


----------



## MarcelNL

Please read up on HOW clinical studies and registration of drugs are done these days before passing on the platter full of nonsense that is going around the table, yes I do work in that industry since a decade or two so call me biased.

All humans are covered by the declaration of Helsinki (1964) WMA - The World Medical Association-WMA Declaration of Helsinki – Ethical Principles for Medical Research Involving Human Subjects
because of a.o. the earlier mentioned WW2 experiments, the Tuskakeegee experiment (just to name one) Tuskegee Syphilis Study - Wikipedia and a few other cases where humane and sound judgement apparently was not present in more than just one or two individuals lead to developing Good Clinical Practice guides Good clinical practice - European Medicines Agency which are based upon the decl. of Helsinki and pretty exactly stipulate how clinical studies are to be done managed and reported.

You cannot get a drug, vaccine or the likes registered and administered to the large public if you do not abide by those GCP rules, if you think about taking a raincheck on them...clinical studies are subject to 'the man and women in black' where a bunch of non smiling people 'inspectors' from FDA EMA etc show up with little notice to start going through all the paperwork at a study site or at the sponsor office to verify if everything adds up and to see if they smell a corpse in the closet.

SO summing this up; any conspiracy (let alone the preposterous fiction of injecting chips for mind control) would require the cooperation of a couple of thousand participants to alter their reported outcome, and/or hundreds of corrupt MD's and thousands of their staff at study sites to cooperate or even actively alter the data, thousands of monitors overseeing the execution of clinical studies by going through much of the data, digital monitoring of trends and data consistency also not picking up anything smelly, sponsors to go with the flow (likely motivation $$, putting at risk their total revenue in the range of 20-40 Billion/y for a product bringing in a couple of hundred million/y) submitting that data to various authorities, auditors not picking up any of the aforementioned, FDA, EMA and other regulators not finding anything out of order at site inspections , data review and safety surveillance.
I'm not privvy to how NASA is regulated yet I dare say it's more likely that no man landed on the moon.

FDA, EMA and several other regulators have fast tracked the vaccines, which does not mean that the 'pile of paper' (study results used to be submitted literally by the truckload) got moved from the inbox to the outbox with a stamp 'approved', it just means the process is handled quicker than the usual year or two that it takes the regulator to chew on , swallow and digest the study data and conclusions, consult key opinion leaders in the field, consult their own consultants and review the outcome of inspections all to come to a conclusion if the product claims can be verified and if the risks outweigh the benefit. You can read much of it at FDA.gov see their memo on the Pfizer vaccine https://www.fda.gov/media/144416/download , long term safety was considered and is being tracked and periodically reviewed as for all drugs on the market.

These vaccines are legit, effective, and the majority is likely even safer than taking a couple of paracetamols every other morning for a slight hangover...BTW paracetamol (panadol etc) would not get a marketing authorization nowadays, as goes for many legacy drugs, simply because the risk benefit profiles are weighed differently nowadays.

Long term safety concerns? You first need to live and stay healthy (look up long term Covid) to see what the long term safety is, it is unknown as of yet the experts agree the risks are expected to be low. Given that the current delta variant is going around like mad, knowing that 99.5% of people in hospital are not vaccinated and seeing that the folks admitted to hospital now are younger I think the short term benefit is quite clearly having the advantage. You can still get Covid and spread it after being vaccinated but you do not get severely ill or even die, it does not get more complicated.

sorry for the rant...


----------



## riba

MarcelNL said:


> sorry for the rant...


It is much appreciated


----------



## inferno

riba said:


> I'd say they're still impressively effective.



but less effective. i even read it on the state news (straight from the propaganda ministery).


----------



## inferno

Luftmensch said:


> I am hoping that the stall in vaccination rate is due to collective apathy? Neither vehemently against vaccination... nor thoroughly pro-vaccination. Perhaps these people have more immediate concerns/worries in their lives? Perhaps they believe the threat of COVID is fading away? Perhaps vaccine distribution is not easily accessible for them? I dunno! I would prefer to believe this is the case... if you can understand why these people are hesitant, you can potentially work with them. I doubt there is much chance of working with polarized groups.... though it is still worth trying.



around here at least i think everybody that wants to be vaccinated is. and no more people will get vaccinated. i think we will top out at 65-70% or so. very few people i meet trust these vaccines. 

best part was one of my friends mother. and she was the the top doctor or whatever they're called of a hospital here, basically the manager of a hospital. and i asked him if she was taking it. he told me she said "no ****ing way". and she knows a thing or 2 about this.


----------



## riba

inferno said:


> but less effective. i even read it on the state news (straight from the propaganda ministery).



In this post Covid: the shape of things to come you claim that the mRNA vaccines are " definitely not so right now " effective against variants (you: " "delta" variant ). 

which is just simply not true.


----------



## inferno

CA_cook said:


> This is false. You are confusing this with clinical trials. Clinical trials are experiments. Clinical trials have been done and vaccines have been authorized by FDA under emergency authorization protocol. Several courts have already affirmed the rights of institutions to require COVID vaccinations. Your comparison with WW2 medical experiments is preposterous and wrong.



it might be so where you live. but you also live in the most "medically corrupt" country in the world. big pharma you know.
you have an opiod epidemic. tens of thousands of people dies every year by prescription opiods. that bribed "doctors" prescribe to whoever walks in.
how the **** is this even possible? because your system is 100% corrupted. and 100% ruled by money.

around here nothing in the health care system is ruled by money. went to the doctor today and cost 20€. then went to the dentist it to check something up and it was 5€, i only paid for the xray.

and not a single ************ there wanted to push some pain meds on me, go figure.


----------



## riba

inferno said:


> best part was one of my friends mother. and she was the the top doctor or whatever they're called of a hospital here, basically the manager of a hospital. and i asked him if she was taking it. he told me she said "no ****ing way". and she knows a thing or 2 about this.


Sounds like she needs some education.


----------



## inferno

riba said:


> In this post Covid: the shape of things to come you claim that the mRNA vaccines are " definitely not so right now " effective against variants (you: " "delta" variant ).
> 
> which is just simply not true.



wait and see. or i guess you already do see it in your own country. i read the dutch news almost every day so i know exactly how its been going there for the last 3 weeks.


----------



## inferno

riba said:


> Sounds like she needs some education.



she has about the highest education you can get in the medical industry. some people like to think for themselves and not just swallow the **** they're being fed blindly you know.


----------



## riba

inferno said:


> wait and see. or i guess you already do see it in your own country. i read the dutch news almost every day so i know exactly how its been going there for the last 3 weeks.


Mmmm, not sure what you are reading....
the numbers here actually show it is very favourable to be vaccinated, also with dela


----------



## riba

inferno said:


> she has about the highest education you can get in the medical industry. some people like to think for themselves and not just swallow the **** they're being fed blindly you know.


Like evidence based medicin?


----------



## inferno

MarcelNL said:


> Long term safety concerns? You first need to live and stay healthy (look up long term Covid)



thanks i have long term covid since 3 months. i know all about it. but please tell me more.


----------



## inferno

riba said:


> Like evidence based medicin?



what do think, if you're the boss of a whole ****ing hospital? and have worked your way up.


----------



## ian

CA_cook said:


> Agree with a lot of what you said. I will actually be OK if unvaccinated people are not allowed on planes or buses, movie theaters, concert halls, etc. This is what they did in Israel more or less. And at some point it becomes only about risks and benefits. Just imagine what could happen is a more dangerous virus, e.g. smallpox, gets reintroduced into circulation. My bet is that the governments will mandate the smallpox vaccine in no time (some of the older folks have that shot, but a lot of the younger adults didn't get it after smallpox was declared eradicated).



Yea. It’s kind of unhelpful to talk here about mandating vaccines for everyone in the country. That’s very polarizing, even threatening to some, and at least in the US it’s never going to happen. I’d definitely support vaccinations being required for eating in restaurants, etc, when caseloads are not at a minimum.


----------



## riba

inferno said:


> what do think, if you're the boss of a whole ****ing hospital? and have worked your way up.


it is just that she has science against her....
she might be a perfect administrator. Also, healthcare is highly specialized, so "medical education" unfortunately doesnt say much.


----------



## spaceconvoy

While I have zero sympathy for vaccine refusers (you're more worried about the unknown long-term side effects of the vaccine than what long covid might do to your body in a decade or two? make it make sense) it's frustrating that people can't recognize the doublespeak and gaslighting that's happening here.

They try to convince vaccine refusers of the importance of protecting the vulnerable and preventing future strains by limiting the circulation of the virus. When it's pointed out that vaccines are not very effective at stopping transmission (today Israel reported that the standard two-dose Pfizer regime is only 39% effective at preventing infection), the argument becomes 'well, they're very effective against hospitalization.'

I think many people have their heads in the sand and want to believe this thing could go away if we all just got vaccinated. But if 61% of vaccinated people are still spreading the virus (while it mutates inside bodies with strong immune responses! think about the terrifying implications of that) we will never achieve herd immunity. Hospital capacity is still a good argument though.


----------



## spaceconvoy

CA_cook said:


> You say this is not a normal virus, this is false.



Call me a crackpot, but please read this entire article before telling me you still believe covid originated naturally









The origin of COVID: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box at Wuhan?


If the case that SARS2 originated in a lab is so substantial, why isn’t this more widely known? As is now obvious, there are many people who have reason not to talk about it.




thebulletin.org


----------



## MarcelNL

inferno said:


> around here at least i think everybody that wants to be vaccinated is. and no more people will get vaccinated. i think we will top out at 65-70% or so. very few people i meet trust these vaccines.
> 
> best part was one of my friends mother. and she was the the top doctor or whatever they're called of a hospital here, basically the manager of a hospital. and i asked him if she was taking it. he told me she said "no ****ing way". and she knows a thing or 2 about this.



bollocks, I meet and work with 'highly educated' people on a daily basis the 'lowest'level is a Bsc the highest educated have at least one phD, usually topped off with some more, and believe me it does not save anyone from being silly, dumb or even outright stupid, not even mentioning blind spots arrogance or ego. We all stay human.

Please go read 'irrationality' or a similar book, I had a grandfather who smoked his whole life from 13 onwards and he did not die of lung cancer (it's even true, he died of prostate cancer aged 89) ..that tale does not make smoking safe...

The crazy arguments based on n=1 that people pull is such a load of nonsense....

A couple of years ago we were researching whether or not we wanted to have our youngest vaccinated for everything or make a selection, I dug through whatever literature and publications that are out there (pro and con)...you know what? The majority of the 'reasoning' is based on the 'works' of one idiot who got denounced as fraud, all the rest has none of the basics to support any claim scientifically and are a loose concoction prepared with a slosh of swashbuckle, a dash of BS to be served with a bit of conjecture.


----------



## ian

spaceconvoy said:


> I think many people have their heads in the sand and want to believe this thing could go away if we all just got vaccinated. But if 61% of vaccinated people are still spreading the virus (while it mutates inside bodies with strong immune responses! think about the terrifying implications of that) we will never achieve herd immunity. Hospital capacity is still a good argument though.



Depends what you mean by “go away”. If everyone were vaccinated, the virus would be so much less dangerous that it wouldn’t be a pandemic anymore.




spaceconvoy said:


> Call me a crackpot, but please read this entire article before telling me you still believe covid originated naturally
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The origin of COVID: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box at Wuhan?
> 
> 
> If the case that SARS2 originated in a lab is so substantial, why isn’t this more widely known? As is now obvious, there are many people who have reason not to talk about it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thebulletin.org



I’m not sure that’s what he meant by a normal virus. He was just talking about whether it obeyed patterns that we understand and have experience with, origin notwithstanding.


----------



## MarcelNL

spaceconvoy said:


> Call me a crackpot, but please read this entire article before telling me you still believe covid originated naturally
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The origin of COVID: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box at Wuhan?
> 
> 
> If the case that SARS2 originated in a lab is so substantial, why isn’t this more widely known? As is now obvious, there are many people who have reason not to talk about it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thebulletin.org


crackpot 

Just joking...could not resist....I'll trade you for a few publications saying the opposite, and we can go yes but no but yes but no until we see green in the face...which will not do anything to Covid or for people suffering from it or at risk of suffering.

Bottom line is that it does not matter that much where the virus originates from, it is here and not going anywhere, we need to deal with it now.


----------



## ian

At least from what I hear the origin is really up in the air, and the lab leak hypothesis is certainly possible. But nobody has any real evidence, so I’m not sure what the point is of arguing about it.


----------



## spaceconvoy

If you don't understand the reasons why virologists have spent a great deal of effort to track down the progenitor of ebola, or why it's important for researchers to know the origin of an virus, then why would anyone take your opinion seriously?

What was the point of such an empty response?


----------



## ian

spaceconvoy said:


> If you don't understand the reasons why virologists have spent a great deal of effort to track down the progenitor of ebola, or why it's important for researchers to know the origin of an virus, then why would anyone take your opinion seriously?



Oh, I’m not debating that it’s important to know where it came from. I’m glad people are investigating this, and if there’s ever a scientific consensus about it, or even just a few pieces of solid evidence, I’ll be super interested to hear the details! I’m just talking about having heated discussions about it on KKF where people insist that it’s essentially proven one way or the other, when it seems like there’s no hard evidence so far in support or against.


----------



## spaceconvoy

ian said:


> Depends what you mean by “go away”. If everyone were vaccinated, the virus would be so much less dangerous that it wouldn’t be a pandemic anymore.


So you believe it will stop mutating just because people are no longer being hospitalized? Do you just believe whatever the CDC tells you?



ian said:


> I’m just talking about having heated discussions about it on KKF where people insist that it’s essentially proven one way or the other, when it seems like there’s no hard evidence so far in support or against.


There is plenty of evidence (the furin cleavage site with arginine codons being perhaps the most compelling) if you would actually read the article and keep an open mind. To me you sound like someone rejecting the theory of evolution because we have no _direct_ evidence for it either.


----------



## ian

Probably I'm being too dismissive. I'm mainly complaining about tone. What I've read of the article you linked is great. I just get quickly frustrated with internet conversations that take still muddled science and present it as fact, so I have a quick knee jerk reaction when I think things are headed that way.


----------



## ian

spaceconvoy said:


> So you believe it will stop mutating just because people are no longer being hospitalized? Do you just believe whatever the CDC tells you?



I believe the CDC before I believe other stuff I read on the internet. If the virus mutates to the point that we need new vaccines or mask mandates or lockdowns, then we deal with that. I'm certainly not an expert, but it seems to me that given the enormous economic and social costs, if everyone were vaccinated and risks were currently minimal, the country would operate as usual for the time being, which would be a win, no? I'm a little confused about what we're arguing about.



spaceconvoy said:


> There is plenty of evidence (the furin cleavage site with arginine codons being perhaps the most compelling) if you would actually read the article and keep an open mind. To me you sound like someone rejecting the theory of evolution because we have no _direct_ evidence for it either.



From the article you cite:

_I’ll describe the two theories, explain why each is plausible, and then ask which provides the better explanation of the available facts. It’s important to note that so far there is no direct evidence for either theory. Each depends on a set of reasonable conjectures but so far lacks proof. So I have only clues, not conclusions, to offer. But those clues point in a specific direction. And having inferred that direction, I’m going to delineate some of the strands in this tangled skein of disaster._

The author is responsible in including this paragraph. But many people citing the article seem to omit it. That's what bothers me.


----------



## chiffonodd

Bodine said:


> Although I chose to be vaccinated, I respect those who choose not to.
> The Government has no right to force anyone to do so. This is a FREE country and the gov needs to be held in check, like stay out of my business.
> There is so much disinformation and out right lies out there, one can not know the truth.
> One they all agree on, but do not talk about, is better than 98% survival rate among those without other serious conditions.
> I am 69, in good health and have nothing to fear.



Sorry but that is incorrect as a matter of constitutional jurisprudence. The United States Supreme Court held in _*Jacobson v. Massachusetts*_, 197 U.S. 11 (1905) that the Fourteenth Amendment permits state governments to enact mandatory vaccine requirements to protect public safety.

Specifically, the Court held that "in every well ordered society charged with the duty of conserving the safety of its members the rights of the individual in respect of his liberty may at times, under the pressure of great dangers, be subjected to such restraint, to be enforced by reasonable regulations, as the safety of the general public may demand" and that "[r]eal liberty for all could not exist under the operation of a principle which recognizes the right of each individual person to use his own [liberty], whether in respect of his person or his property, regardless of the injury that may be done to others."


----------



## spaceconvoy

ian said:


> I believe the CDC before I believe other stuff I read on the internet.


I do not. The CDC has admitted lying to the public about the necessity of masks early on in the pandemic for the sake of preventing a run on supplies before they could be secured for hospitals. Their stance on masks now with the delta variant stinks of pure politics too. The fact that you think the CDC is even _slightly_ more reputable than journalists (because they're "on the internet"?) is all the evidence I need to form a theory of how critically you're thinking about this.


----------



## ian

spaceconvoy said:


> I do not. The CDC has admitted lying to the public about the necessity of masks early on in the pandemic for the sake of preventing a run on supplies before they could be secured for hospitals. Their stance on masks now with the delta variant stinks of pure politics too. The fact that you think the CDC is even _slightly_ more reputable than journalists (because they're "on the internet"?) is all the evidence I need to form a theory of how critically you're thinking about this.



I admit I'm confused about the history of the mask mandate. I was under the impression that the early mask guidelines were made before people really knew about asymptomatic spread and that many of Fauci's early remarks that people cite included the point about preserving masks for health care workers. Maybe that's wrong. If someone has some sources they'd like to link, I'm happy to look at them. Also, I didn't mean as much to refer to journalists at reputable institutions with the `internet' comment, fwiw, but still, I generally trust the CDC to be operating in the interest of public health. Anyway, have a good day.


----------



## ian

chiffonodd said:


> constitutional jurisprudence



Lordy, I get all hot and bothered when I hear you say this.


----------



## JDA_NC

deskjockey said:


> Any facts to back up that claim? Sure, colonial conquest may have started a lot of exploration but, to suggest the masses looking for freedom from persecution were really traveling the Atlantic under sail at great personal peril were really there for "power and profit" has no support in factual history I am aware of other than the slaves sold by their countryman in Africa.



*"Although data on immigration for the colonial period are scattered and incomplete a number of scholars have estimated that between half and three quarters of European immigrants arriving in the colonies came as indentured or redemptioner servants. Using data for the end of the colonial period Grubb (1985b) found that close to three-quarters of English immigrants to Pennsylvania and nearly 60 percent of German immigrants arrived as servants.*

The other major source of labor for the colonies was the forced migration of African slaves. Slavery had been introduced in the West Indies at an early date, but it was not until the late seventeenth century that significant numbers of slaves began to be imported into the mainland colonies. From 1700 to 1780 the proportion of blacks in the Chesapeake region grew from 13 percent to around 40 percent. In South Carolina and Georgia, the black share of the population climbed from 18 percent to 41 percent in the same period (McCusker and Menard, 1985, p. 222). Galenson (1984) explains the transition from indentured European to enslaved African labor as the result of shifts in supply and demand conditions in England and the trans-Atlantic slave market. *Conditions in Europe improved after 1650, reducing the supply of indentured servants, while at the same time increased competition in the slave trade was lowering the price of slaves (Dunn 1984). In some sense the colonies’ early experience with indentured servants paved the way for the transition to slavery. Like slaves, indentured servants were unfree, and ownership of their labor could be freely transferred from one owner to another. Unlike slaves, however, they could look forward to eventually becoming free (Morgan 1971).*

Over time a marked regional division in labor market institutions emerged in colonial America. *The use of slaves was concentrated in the Chesapeake and Lower South, where the presence of staple export crops (rice, indigo and tobacco) provided economic rewards for expanding the scale of cultivation beyond the size achievable with family labor. European immigrants (primarily indentured servants) tended to concentrate in the Chesapeake and Middle Colonies, where servants could expect to find the greatest opportunities to enter agriculture once they had completed their term of service.* While New England was able to support self-sufficient farmers, its climate and soil were not conducive to the expansion of commercial agriculture, with the result that it attracted relatively few slaves, indentured servants, or free immigrants*."* (Indentured Servitude in the Colonial U.S.)

See also:

"*Investors in the Virginia Company hoped to profit from the natural resources of the New World. In 1606 Captain Bartholomew Gosnold obtained of King James I a charter for two companies. The first, the Virginia Company of London (now known generally as the "London Company"), covered what are now Maryland, Virginia and Carolina, between Latitude 34° and Latitude 41° North. Gosnold's principal backers were Sir Thomas Gates, Sir George Somers, Edward Wingfield and Richard Hakluyt.[4][5]

The second company, the Plymouth Company of London (today known as the "Plymouth Company"), was empowered to settle as far as 45° North, encompassing what are present day Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, and New England.[6]

The Company paid all the costs of establishing each colony, and in return controlled all land and resources there, requiring all settlers to work for the Company*." (London Company - Wikipedia)

There is also the Sugar Act, Boston Tea Party, "No taxation without representation," and the American Revolutionary War. Or Manifest destiny, the Mexican-American War, and other cases of American Imperialism. And, of course, there are countless examples in our nation's history such as the American-Indian Wars, Trail of Tears, the Three-fifths Compromise, the Thirteenth Amendment, Chinese Exclusion Act, National Origins Formula, and the Internment of Japanese-Americans that illustrate that "freedom" has never been applicable to all or a top priority in our country.

Sorry this is all off-topic from the original discussion (and likely to be removed by Mods) but it does my head in when I see people regurgitate this sort of nonsense.


----------



## Bodine

chiffonodd said:


> Sorry but that is incorrect as a matter of constitutional jurisprudence. The United States Supreme Court held in _*Jacobson v. Massachusetts*_, 197 U.S. 11 (1905) that the Fourteenth Amendment permits state governments to enact mandatory vaccine requirements to protect public safety.



Point taken, I stand corrected. Since there is no law in effect, the gov has no right at this time to force vaccinations. That law would have to be enacted by the legislature of a state, not a court.
Possible, but not probable in Florida at this time.


----------



## AT5760

It wouldn't need to be the state legislature; a governor could take action through an executive order. Most of the action taken regarding COVID had been through executive orders and that's where most of the challenges in the courts have been (thanks @chiffonodd for sending me down a rabbit hole of COVID-related court decisions citing _Jacobson...)_. You're right though that it's up to the state government to make those types of decisions and state politics will play a large role in any vaccine requirements.


----------



## chiffonodd

Bodine said:


> Point taken, I stand corrected. Since there is no law in effect, the gov has no right at this time to force vaccinations. That law would have to be enacted by the legislature of a state, not a court.
> Possible, but not probable in Florida at this time.



Yeah the case is not that well known because fortunately we haven't had much need over the years for those sort of mandatory measures! But it's on the books all the same.

It makes sense when you think about the role of state governments in our system. The US Constitution specifies that any powers not enumerated to the federal government, and not otherwise inconsistent with the federal constitution, are reserved to the states. So yeah the feds (Congress, mainly) don't necessarily have the power to promulgate a nationwide mask requirement, except perhaps in the context of interstate commerce regulation. But for anything more local, that's all state government. It's called "the police power of the state" in legal circles and it's a concept that goes back centuries in Anglo-American law.


----------



## chiffonodd

ian said:


> Lordy, I get all hot and bothered when I hear you say this.



The only good part of law is the jargon lol it's why we have all those tv shows.

Objection!!


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Because of this thread tried research anti vaxers. Now know why never joining Facebook
or Twitter not missing out. 

IDC makes some good points about labor esp. in Virginia where my family goes back to early 1700's. Scottish.


----------



## chefwp

Michi said:


> Indeed, I'd be inclined to concur with that proposition, and not only tentatively


I think because of serendipity, this arrived in my feed today, very timely.


----------



## Oshidashi

No need for the government to mandate vaccines. Just allow companies to restrict nonvax from stores, restaurants, groceries, convenience stores, movie theaters, buses, taxis, trains, cruise lines, etc., and people will choose vaccination.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Vaccine card or app on phone your right to 
passage.


----------



## MarcelNL

Keith Sinclair said:


> Vaccine card or app on phone your right to
> passage.


That is exactly what the EU has been building and the app is now in place and is used for border passage, several countries like France are using the app to control access to restaurants, public transportation, musea beginning Aug 1st.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Early on there were groups that came for religious freedom. Other than more well known,
Maryland had Catholics. England was a dangerous place to be during reign of Elizabeth
So was across the Eastern shore of Chesapeake bay in Virginia. 

To this day & from beginning come to escape persecution in their countries of birth. Being on
wrong side of hostile takeovers. Potato blights.


----------



## boomchakabowwow

only thing for certain. this virus seriously split the country into two camps.

i have some people i like that i dont talk to anymore because we are not on the same page.


----------



## gregfisk

boomchakabowwow said:


> only thing for certain. this virus seriously split the country into two camps.
> 
> i have some people i like that i dont talk to anymore because we are not on the same page.


I believe that the country has been split into two camps for a very long time now. People just dropped into those camps regarding Covid. It never should have been politicized in the first place and we can only hope that people come to their senses. 

I completely agree that what needs to happen is businesses of all colors and stripes need to require people be vaccinated in order to enter that companies property. That would make a lot of non vaccinated people mad but it would force people to get vaccinated. I think that’s the most important thing that needs to happen now. I would love to see vaccination cards but that’s not going to happen in the US. At least I don’t think it will.


----------



## Barmoley

First FDA needs to approve covid vaccines. Not just emergency use, but formal approval. It is pretty ridiculous that this hasn't happened yet.


----------



## ian

Barmoley said:


> First FDA needs to approve covid vaccines. Not just emergency use, but formal approval. It is pretty ridiculous that this hasn't happen yet.



Yea, that would help! I heard somewhere that the things they’re evaluating now are technical things like how well the vaccine can be transported and stored, etc, not like how safe or effective it is. Wonder if that’s true. Certainly seems strange that they haven’t lit a fire under the formal approval process, since so many people are using the emergency approval as an excuse. But I guess if they hurry it, maybe it won’t seem credible to those people? Idk. I feel like there are always going to be people saying “this was approved in a year, which is four times faster than any other vaccine approval, and is therefore suspicious”, nevermind the fact that we’ve never had the urgency of a global pandemic behind vaccine authorizations.


----------



## MarcelNL

normally validation of production, shipping and storage happens in parallel with the studies, so that is likely lagging behind.


----------



## Barmoley

I am sure there are many "good" reasons, but surely transportation, storage, production have been sorted out at this point, given how many vaccines have been delivered. The approval will help a lot and not having it casts a weird light on the issue. There will still be people that will refuse to vaccinate, but at least there will be less reason for them to do so. At the moment it is difficult to argue for the safety of the vaccine when FDA doesn't have it approved. Not to mention that it is not easy to require people to vaccinate with something not having full FDA approval. General public doesn't care about the technicalities of the FDA approval process. For decades we've been fed the "fact" that if it is not FDA approved it is not safe and should not be used. Most know this is not technically true, but under the circumstances not having FDA approval is a very good argument against the vaccines.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

One of my sister's is a holdout rest of siblings
have shots. I told her virus does not care about
your beliefs or politics. Less than 60% not enough to make anti vaxers safe. Cases are going up in Hawaii. With highly contagious strains pretty much all non vaccinated by own 
choice. Hospital beds are filling up again.

All I could tell my sister is love her like to have her around many more years she is 74.


----------



## tcmx3

Barmoley said:


> I am sure there are many "good" reasons, but surely transportation, storage, production have been sorted out at this point, given how many vaccines have been delivered. The approval will help a lot and not having it casts a weird light on the issue. There will still be people that will refuse to vaccinate, but at least there will be less reason for them to do so. At the moment it is difficult to argue for the safety of the vaccine when FDA doesn't have it approved. Not to mention that it is not easy to require people to vaccinate with something not having full FDA approval. General public doesn't care about the technicalities of the FDA approval process. For decades we've been fed the "fact" that if it is not FDA approved it is not safe and should not be used. Most know this is not technically true, but under the circumstances not having FDA approval is a very good argument against the vaccines.



my friend this is a very logical, measured approach.

unfortunately our world has somehow gotten to a place where we do not all live with the same shared set of facts that existed at least through the end of the 70s. the people who are using FDA status as an excuse will simply find another one. they probably wont even have to look very far.

additionally several decades of the thrust towards this has resulted in a country where we can look at the two largest sources of news and one runs stories about Delta cases and the other about Cathode Ray Tubes. I suspect most vaccine holdouts would not even see a story about FDA approval as it would be significantly down the page from all the culture war stuff that is all anyone seems to care about anymore.


----------



## MarcelNL

At some point ANY excuse is valid, and that goes for both groups.

I find it a bit funny (but understandable) that everyone wants drugs to be as safe as possible, yet now we're in a pandemic shortcuts seem acceptable. I'm definitely not a fan of the FDA, yet it's pretty sure they have good reasons to follow the procedures they have (if ultimately perhaps only legal, as what they do is probably all acc. to CFR). 

EMA as far as I know has fully approved the Pfizer for all EU countries, yes there are more regulators in the world, and the vaccination rate is also not anywhere near 80% in ANY EU country. COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker | European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
In France the govt is now enticing the population to get vaccinated (low 50%) by promising preferential treatment in bars restaurants etc, and it works, at the same time the threat is that non vaccinated people will have more difficulty to some things. 

'sorting' something out works for building something, not so for drugs where every step of the process from bulk materials to final drug delivered needs to be traceable, every process validated, all contaminants, degradation processes and effects of packaging charted and investigated.....in short, you don't want to know how much stuff needs to be researched, documented, validated, verified, certified, submitted, verified, approved.


----------



## VICTOR J CREAZZI

boomchakabowwow said:


> I have some people *I used to *like that i dont talk to anymore because we are not on the same page.



Fixed that for me.


----------



## mpier

I try to look at things with an open mind, being that I am older. I have seen a lot of products of all kinds that have been approved for use in my life time as good for use by the general population turn into a very bad thing in the long run. Only long term studies can really determine the overall safety of a product. With that being said today’s technology is much improved. But would still understand if there are skeptics who want to wait for awhile. I just got stabbed for my family’s sake, but I may have held out longer just to see how things shake out with the different drugs being used.


----------



## spaceconvoy

What incentive would the FDA have to dilute its own power? It would be a tacit admission that many of their regulations are burdensome, and typically cause more harm than they prevent (in the current century). Why stop with covid? Are all deaths that could have been prevented with an experimental drug not equally tragic? The FDA is institutionally opposed to these arguments because they threaten its very existence.


----------



## Barmoley

FDA approval doesn't guarantee that there are no long term problems. There are plenty of examples of approved medicines turning out to be bad down the road. There is a disconnect though with FDA recommending the vaccines, that the organization hasn't itself fully approved. Claiming that this is due to their rigorous process is laughable. Either don't push the vaccines that haven't passed your process or approve them. They look like buffoon that don't believe in their own message. They are basically saying use these vaccines because this is the best tool we have at this time to stop this disease, but let us cover our ass just in case. Of course the situation is not as black and white as I make it out to be, but the message needs to be clear if we want it to work and it is not at this time. It is understandable why many are confused, on the fence or otherwise don't want to "experiment" with the vaccine.


----------



## AT5760

There's exactly .0001125% of the population that is objectively looking at the FDA emergency authorization vs. approval process and making decisions based on scientific concerns about the safety of vaccines. 

From a non-scientific standpoint, I haven't talked to or observed anyone expressing vaccine reservations based on anything other than "freedom" or regurgitation of amorphous talking points.

People can and will make their own choices, but I don't think that the admittedly muddy narratives that the FDA and CDV have caused are impacting a lot of rational actors.


----------



## Barmoley

AT5760 said:


> There's exactly .0001125% of the population that is objectively looking at the FDA emergency authorization vs. approval process and making decisions based on scientific concerns about the safety of vaccines.
> 
> From a non-scientific standpoint, I haven't talked to or observed anyone expressing vaccine reservations based on anything other than "freedom" or regurgitation of amorphous talking points.
> 
> People can and will make their own choices, but I don't think that the admittedly muddy narratives that the FDA and CDV have caused are impacting a lot of rational actors.


I disagree, most of the people I've talked to that haven't vaccinated yet bring up lack of full FDA approval as the main reason. All are rational, educated and smart people. So I'd say exactly 73.93421% of the still unvaccinated population of educated and rational actors are affected.

Jokes aside it is very difficult to argue with people not wanting to vaccinate when the government agencies that we supposed to listen to send mixed messages.


----------



## DitmasPork

Late to the party of this thread!

I'm of the belief that the US government needs to be more aggressive in getting the entire population vaccinated—ideally to make it a requirement to get vaccinated. I'd love to see both public and private sector jobs require all employees to be vaccinated; schools to do the same with students; no driver's license or government benefits unless proof of vaccination; etc.

Sure there're risks, a relatively small risk—but it's the same with any vaccination. I've a few relatives who're anti-vacc, their views for the most part shaped by the pervasive misinformation from "alternative press" and other questionable sources. Sad to see so many people resistant to vaccination—just foolish and not cool IMO.

It's certainly a new reality upon us. I hate wearing masks, but do so out of respect and safety for others, as well as my own protection. It is simply the responsible thing to do. I kick people out of my business of they refuse to wear a mask. 

I'm quite passionate about my views, perhaps because I live in one of the covid hot zones of NYC, and remember vividly how covid ravaged the city.


----------



## ian

Barmoley said:


> Jokes aside it is very difficult to argue with people not wanting to vaccinate when the government agencies that we supposed to listen to send mixed messages.



I don't find it that difficult, really. I'm happy saying that there are various hoops and such that the FDA has to jump through that haven't been done yet, but that the basically unanimous consensus of the FDA, the CDC, and the overall scientific community is that these vaccines are safe, effective, and essential to combating the pandemic, unless we all want to shelter in place for the next however many years. That's not to say that they'll believe this argument, but I don't find it hard to say.


----------



## mpier

I see and hear so many passionate statements about this conversation, and passion is such a great emotion that drives us in many positive directions. But when I hear people say they want to take away the fundamental rights of others because they do not believe as they do that becomes persecution and persecution as history has taught us is EVIL. We need to have understanding and compassion for what others may be going through, you don’t know what goes on in another’s mind so why paint them with such a flawed brush. I got vaccinated for my family not necessarily for myself, but I have other health issues with multiple medications so I was very hesitant as I should be and my family was very supportive of all my decisions. A lot of my overall decision to get vaccinated was being more educated on which vaccines would be best and safest. So now with
options out there why do we need to shut down again it may just come down to it is your decision to get vaccinated or not and you must live with the consequences.


----------



## CA_cook

It is ridiculous that FDA has not granted full approval for the COVID vaccine yet. Given how many doses have been administered they have safety data worth decades of normal clinical trials. Surely antivaxxers will come up with a different canard, butt that would rob them off their biggest weapon. The more people get pissed off at antivaxxers the more support there would be for vaccine mandates. And unfortunately that what we need now to crush this pandemic. We had a change to do it with voluntary vaccinations, but we missed it because of vaccine hesitancy and disinformation. Mandates are the next logical step. If you don't want to get the vaccine, fine, work remotely, don't go to restaurants, buses, planes, bar and concerts. Public health has the word "public" for a reason. It's not just about you.


----------



## spaceconvoy

CA_cook said:


> It is ridiculous that FDA has not granted full approval for the COVID vaccine yet. Given how many doses have been administered they have safety data worth decades of normal clinical trials.


This is wishful thinking. You're saying that having more doses administered speeds up the passage of time somehow?







AT5760 has it right.. the distinction between only matters to people looking for an excuse to refuse the vaccines. It's a moving target, and granting full approval won't lead to widespread vaccination. They'll just find another complaint to latch onto.


----------



## Barmoley

spaceconvoy said:


> This is wishful thinking. You're saying that having more doses administered speeds up the passage of time somehow?
> 
> View attachment 135777
> 
> 
> AT5760 has it right.. the distinction between only matters to people looking for an excuse to refuse the vaccines. It's a moving target, and granting full approval won't lead to widespread vaccination. They'll just find another complaint to latch onto.


As true as that might be. Not having full approval is a solid reason not to trust the vaccine or FDA message. Yes some people will find another reason not to get vaccinated, but some will just get vaccinated, I personally know a few. We can argue percentages and all that, but the message would be clearer. Right now to a lay person like myself that doesn't know all the intricacies of FDA approval process it just seems like they are not sure of long term effects, so they don't give full approval. This might not be true, but in this situation perception is more important than reality. There is absolutely no reasonable downside for them giving full approval at this point. If down the road it turns out that there are long term effects FDA will be blamed regardless, since they are pushing the vaccines hard.


----------



## MarcelNL

The problem IMO lies in the mindset of blaming someone to begin with, I don't know who will be blaming FDA and for what but everyone can make their own decision...to get informed, to get vaccinated, or not.

BTW: point folks to this, Opinion: Don't wait for full FDA approval to get your Covid shot. Here's why


----------



## DitmasPork

In the US, I think attitudes towards vaccinations are influenced be whatever city or state one lives in.

The way things are shaping up, unvaccinated people will just have to accept that they don't have the same rights as vaccinated people. Their choice.

For instance, a bunch of the top restaurants in NYC—Danny Meyer, et al—are now mandating that all their workers and restaurant customers must be vaccinated. No shirt, no shoes, no covid vacc, no service.

How it should be IMO.


----------



## CA_cook

spaceconvoy said:


> This is wishful thinking. You're saying that having more doses administered speeds up the passage of time somehow?
> 
> Not really. What I am saying is that FDA has a lot more data that with a normal compound to evaluate safety. If you are looking for rare side effects, they would been recorded, given how many people got the vaccine already. Very large sample size a huge advantage when you evaluate safety.
> 
> It still does not tell you about long-term side effects, thats correct, but there are few or no cases of long term side effects with any vaccine so it is highly unlikely to see that with these ones. mRNA also stays in the organism for a day or less before it is degraded, which again puts long-term side effects in the improbable category. AT this point the benefit of a real approval vastly outweighs the risks.


----------



## ian

MarcelNL said:


> The problem IMO lies in the mindset of blaming someone to begin with, I don't know who will be blaming FDA and for what but everyone can make their own decision...to get informed, to get vaccinated, or not.
> 
> BTW: point folks to this, Opinion: Don't wait for full FDA approval to get your Covid shot. Here's why



Nice piece. It’s also nice to be reminded that I have no idea what goes into FDA approval, so I probably shouldn’t comment on whether it’s too fast or too slow. Presumably there’s a reason it’s taking this long.


----------



## chiffonodd




----------



## Luftmensch

ian said:


> I have no idea what goes into FDA approval, so I probably shouldn’t comment on whether it’s too fast or too slow.



I have no horse in this race... the FDA only indirectly affects me. The conversation interested me so I wanted to know what the fuss was about. I did 15 minutes of reading and found some logical sounding answers. There are plenty of articles written by credible sources. The FDA offers a lot of information. I am not going to pretend 15 minutes of reading will make anybody an expert on the approval process but finding some credible high-level explanations is possible! The probable answer is: "it is taking exactly as long as it needs to" 

The fact that the vaccines have emergency use authorisation (EUA) means they are demonstrably safe and effective. This was done using trial data from 10,000's patients. Drug companies need to apply to the FDA for full approval. For example; in early May, Pfizer submitted a rolling application for their vaccine's full authorisation. The FDA granted priority review in the middle of July [see Pfizer-BioNTech announcement]. Note that [ref]:



> Priority Review designation is given to drugs that offer major advances in treatment, or provide a treatment where none existed. The goal for completing a Priority Review is six months.



Priority review was only granted two weeks ago!! A lot of this has to do with the manufacturers assembling all the correct data and applying. After an application checks all the boxes, the FDA needs to review all the submitted material to ensure the safety and efficacy of the vaccines. The FDA also has to validate that the vaccine can be manufactured safely and consistency at scale. Their process has a lot of checks, at multiple levels. This is purposely done to catch mistakes but it does put the brake on speed. I doubt full approval will take the 6 month period. But even with FDA employees working weekends and overtime, it is not going to happen in two weeks!

The FDA are damned if they do; and damned if they dont. If somebody thinks the FDA is moving too slowly - we have never had a safe vaccine for corona viruses before. Similarly EUA has _never_ been granted to a vaccine in America before. We are breaking speed records for medical development. These are all unprecedented. If somebody thinks the FDA is moving too fast - the FDA and government recognise the urgency and have invested a whole lot of resources in prioritising critical solutions. Of course the process is moving as quickly as it can... but not because anybody is cutting corners!

I share the same view as many here. For certain vocal parties, it doesn't matter whether the vaccines reach full FDA approval or not. Approval is a red herring. This group of people has made their decision and are using post-hoc reasoning to justify their prior world view. Those against the vaccine will just find a way to shift the goal posts once approval has been given.

A full FDA approval _will_ be useful in giving institutions the confidence (maybe authority) to require the vaccine (e.g. schools/universities/military). It would likely fast track new boosters... and good or bad... it will likely change the EUA ecosystem. New and effective vaccines may not be granted EUA status if approved vaccine already exist.

My guess (for the zero weight it holds) is September


----------



## Luftmensch

CA_cook said:


> Given how many doses have been administered they have safety data worth decades of normal clinical trials



Yes/no... clinical trials are done in phases. You might not know it, but the last phase is done after market release. It can be really hard to catch the 1 in 100,000 events, even with large scale pre-market trials.

But you are right. The vaccines have been given to millions of patients. This is like a phase-IV trial. The major vaccines have confirmed their efficacy and safety. BUT! In some cases they have also revealed rare and serious side effects - such as the AstraZeneca blood clots.


----------



## MarcelNL

Submission of study data is a whole different can of worms, first it needs to be cleaned, adverse events coded (translated into a uniform system), signed by the investigators, databases locked, adverse event narratives written, analysis done, digested discussed, results written up (most of that work usually is describing adverse events in narratives). 

After submission of the package FDA validates the package to ensure they have all that is expected and required (checking for empty files etc). There is only so much you can do in parallel as there are some clear dependencies. Believe me when I say that companies are as efficient as can be in that process, time to registration matters big time $$...

Enough work to keep large teams in various disciplines very busy. ALL original data gets transferred -in contrary to EMA)- FDA does their own little analysis on the data that was submitted, panels of experts are consulted, meetings held, clarifications asked and sent.... quite an intense process. 
After approval a similar process runs for the safety surveillance data, periodically and incrementally all safety data gets chewed on, reports written and submitted, and if you think there is one uniform system across the world- NO.


----------



## spaceconvoy

Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains - Scientific Reports


Vaccines are thought to be the best available solution for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains may come too rapidly for current vaccine developments to alleviate the health, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. To quantify...




www.nature.com





"... the highest risk of resistant strain establishment occurs when a large fraction of the population has already been vaccinated but the transmission is not controlled."

Back to the original topic; the future of covid will be forever. Because vaccines do not prevent asymptomatic transmission, and a widely vaccinated population creates selection pressure favoring vaccine-resistant strains, this thing will never go away. Unless everyone embraces masks as a way of life  so yeah, I'd place good money on the emergence of a vaccine-resistant strain by the end of this year.


----------



## MarcelNL

not sure about the vaccine resistant strain, modelling mutations is one thing, what those mutations end up like is another and to me that is for the virologists to answer, what I read and heard so far makes me think they expect that the vaccines are likely still efficacious in protecting us from getting seriously ill.









Could new COVID variants undermine vaccines? Labs scramble to find out


Researchers race to determine why lineages identified in Britain and South Africa spread so quickly and whether they’ll compromise vaccines.




www.nature.com


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Masks have been used by some Asian countries by person's in crowded conditions for
many years. Covid first time I've worn them still
mandate to go anywhere. Was thinking they 
work because keeps you hands off you face.

I haven't even had a cold in over 3 years.
Certainly in part to having mask since covid
& sanitizer in the car when take mask off.

Used to catch colds after going to grocery store.


----------



## Michi

Things are looking grim here. NSW is reporting >200 delta cases per day. Lots of people will not come forward when they have symptoms and keep going to work instead. In large part in areas of Greater Sydney where there are lots of people who are just getting by and cannot afford to have the main bread winner in the Family fall ill. The actual number of infections each day is likely much higher than what gets reported.

All of south-east Queensland will be under strict lock-down from 4 pm today, for at least the next three days. This comes after a teenager at a large high school in Brisbane was at the school for two days while infectious, with potentially thousands of contacts.

Lock-down means that no-one can move more than 10 km from their home, and only to obtain essential goods (food or medication). All shops are closed, except for essentials, such as petrol stations, grocery stores and, interestingly, liquor outlets. Masks to be worn at all times outside the home. No visitors allowed to anyone's home. Etc., etc…

Australia currently has about 40% of the population with a single vaccine dose, and about 18% with two doses. Easy pickings for the virus. We'll probably see many deaths in the coming weeks


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Our Vac rate is higher than down under, however infections are going up. All by non
vaccinated person's. We won't have another
Shutdown wearing mask indoors in all public
places.


----------



## Nemo

Michi said:


> Australia currently has about 40% of the population with a single vaccine dose, and about 18% with two doses. Easy pickings for the virus. We'll probably see many deaths in the coming weeks



We would have had many more vaccinated, especially amongst the elderly, if the mixed and contradictory messaging on AZ hadn't resulted in a huge amount of vaccine snobbery. 25 plus% of over 70s haven’t been vaxxed because they ware waiting for Pfizer despite AZ being available and basically just as safe and just as effective for them.

You may unfortunately be correct in that some may pay for that with their lives. Many more will have a life-changing experience in ICU.

On the upside, it does seem that there has been a fair bit more take-up of AZ in the last couple of weeks, especially in Sydney, but also in Melbourne.

It reminds me that most people are very poor at comparing risks. Over 70s have under a 1 in a million chance of dying from TTS after AZ. Even in Aus, I suspect they have a much greater (orders of magnitude) chance of dying from Covid before Pfizer or Moderna is available to them. Interestingly, the same demographic often thinks nothing of driving 10,000km with their Ute or Landcruiser overloaded with a 3.5 tonne caravan which is in fact a much more risky undertaking.


----------



## chiffonodd

Keith Sinclair said:


> Masks have been used by some Asian countries by person's in crowded conditions for
> many years. Covid first time I've worn them still
> mandate to go anywhere. Was thinking they
> work because keeps you hands off you face.
> 
> I haven't even had a cold in over 3 years.
> Certainly in part to having mask since covid
> & sanitizer in the car when take mask off.
> 
> Used to catch colds after going to grocery store.



Yeah i havent gotten a single cold since February 2021, almost 18 months now and almost certainly because of masking and social distancing.


----------



## Michi

chiffonodd said:


> Yeah i havent gotten a single cold since February 2021, almost 18 months now and almost certainly because of masking and social distancing.


Other illnesses, such as the flu and common cold, are way down here, at only a small fraction of what we normally see. Clearly, the masks and distancing make a big difference.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Nemo guess you have old geezers on caravan
Must be the older Landcruisers new ones arent worth squat. That's why only see off-road Toyota around the world. What's a Ute?

I took out a solid concrete divider wall in preparation for planting an avocado tree.

Thought could dig out around it & break with a 10# sledge. Fat chance. Got a plug in jack hammer from HD 79.00 four hours. Got it done in two hours. Got to go do all this stuff while still younger in early 70's.

Hauled the concrete to recycle put a tarp in back to protect Interior weighed vehicle coming & going. Almost 800#. 













Was a good drive across island more drive my manual Forrester more I like it.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Oh just remembered Toyota made Landcruisers
too. Those restored are popular.


----------



## MarcelNL

No colds and flu, yeah I noticed the same thing, over here we're seeing a pretty significant number of cases of small kids with RS virus simply because their mothers have not been exposed to it and could not pass it on to the kid before birth


----------



## Michi

Keith Sinclair said:


> What's a Ute?


Short for "utility truck". Basically a pick-up truck. These things are used by lots of trades people.




There's also a sub-culture of souped-up utes with V8 engines.


----------



## Nemo

Keith Sinclair said:


> Nemo guess you have old geezers on caravan
> Must be the older Landcruisers new ones arent worth squat. That's why only see off-road Toyota around the world. What's a Ute?


 In Aus, "old geezers in caravans" are called "Grey Nomads". Each autumn (fall), many (?tens Of) thousands leave the southern cities for the warmer climes of Queensland, the Northern Territory or Northern Western Australia, towing their overladed caravans behind them.

The 200 series LC is a decent tow vehicle. We have one for the horsefloat. But if you tow 3500 kg with 350 kg towbar download (download in Aus is typically 10%, as opposed to 5% in much of the world), there is barely any GVM left for fuel, passengers or luggage. We don't have the 300 series LC here yet. I don't know whether it's going to be an improvement or not.

A "Ute" (pronounced 'youte') is a "utility vehicle" with a cab or dual cab and a tray. A bit like what you might call a truck, but generally with a payload of 1000-1200 kg, so smaller than a Silverado or F250. Many are rated to tow 3500kg but the GCM then only allows enough extra weight for the fuel and driver.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

I was thinking English Land Rover. Have a lot of millionaires in Hawaii. Those Land Rovers are popular vehicle esp. Chinese from Hong Kong.

Toyota is serious off road & general roughing it.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Michi said:


> Short for "utility truck". Basically a pick-up truck. These things are used by lots of trades people.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There's also a sub-culture of souped-up utes with V8 engines.



I would guess custom lowered vehicles are pretty worthless in the outback.


----------



## Michi

Keith Sinclair said:


> I would guess custom lowered vehicles are pretty worthless in the outback.


Yes. You want something with decent clearance and, preferably, a bull bar.


----------



## Nemo

Michi said:


> ...bull bar.


Aka 'roo bar


----------



## M1k3

Nemo said:


> Aka 'roo bar


----------



## Michi

@M1k3 No, not that kind of roo bar


----------



## WiriWiri

Michi said:


> @M1k3 No, not that kind of roo bar
> View attachment 136030



This kind of roo bar?


----------



## knifeknight

Michi said:


> Other illnesses, such as the flu and common cold, are way down here, at only a small fraction of what we normally see. Clearly, the masks and distancing make a big difference.


And why does wearing a mask obviously has no visible effect on transmission of Covid if it works with saisonal flue viruses ? That‘s deeply illogical…


----------



## natto

knifeknight said:


> And why does wearing a mask obviously has no visible effect on transmission of Covid if it works with saisonal flue viruses ? That‘s deeply illogical…


because you get covid with the mask off.


----------



## knifeknight

That‘s nonsense. Everybody wears masks and gets infected with Covid nontheless. So the mask is effective against the flu and common cold and against Covid it‘s basically useless. So what‘s the reason you‘re wearing this rag ?


----------



## ian

knifeknight said:


> That‘s nonsense. Everybody wears masks and gets infected with Covid nontheless. So the mask is effective against the flu and common cold and against Covid it‘s basically useless. So what‘s the reason you‘re wearing this rag ?



A quick google search provides plenty of links to studies showing the effectiveness of masks at *reducing* transmission rates of covid. E.g. An evidence review of face masks against COVID-19

What evidence are you citing to back up your conclusion that they are useless?


----------



## knifeknight

But why get people infected with corona if wearing a mask protects 100% against all other pneumonal viruses ???? 

In Germany we had no law to wear masks during the first wave. During the second & third it was obligatory to wear one. Most people got ill and died despite wearing masks all the time.

You need no studies to see this…


----------



## BillHanna

If you’re going to die anyways, why try to live life? Why try to eat well? Immortality is outside of our grasp. Just eat shxt and die.


----------



## natto

knifeknight said:


> But why get people infected with corona if wearing a mask protects 100% against all other pneumonal viruses ????
> 
> In Germany we had no law to wear masks during the first wave. During the second & third it was obligatory to wear one. Most people got ill and died despite wearing masks all the time.
> 
> You need no studies to see this…


If you want to know you need information. But everyone is free to believe simple tales. Like we are wearing masks and covid didn't leave, so masks don't protect against covid.


----------



## ian

knifeknight said:


> But why get people infected with corona if wearing a mask protects 100% against all other pneumonal viruses ????



I put “*reduce” *in boldface for your benefit. Noone claims 100% effectiveness.

You could use the same argument to say that seatbelts are useless because people die in car crashes all the time.


----------



## tcmx3

Michi said:


> Other illnesses, such as the flu and common cold, are way down here, at only a small fraction of what we normally see. Clearly, the masks and distancing make a big difference.



it's also a sobering reminder of how contagious COVID actually is.

in a year where a disease that's so contagious we inoculate and every 100 years or so tries to wipe out the human race cant do anything covid still managed to infect people.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

WiriWiri said:


> This kind of roo bar?
> View attachment 136039



Are Roo bars open for business yet. Guess you can take your mask off to have a pint.

Ordered a Roo wallet from down under still use it was wondering what roos they use to get the leather.

Opal is my birthstone white in gold deco style ring nice stone my only bling.


----------



## Michi

knifeknight said:


> But why get people infected with corona if wearing a mask protects 100% against all other pneumonal viruses ????
> 
> In Germany we had no law to wear masks during the first wave. During the second & third it was obligatory to wear one. Most people got ill and died despite wearing masks all the time.
> 
> You need no studies to see this…


Has it occurred to you that, had all these people not worn masks, things would have been very much worse?


----------



## Lars

Sorry for OT, but I can't help it - every time I see this thread I think of the album by Refused: The Shape Of Punk To Come


----------



## spaceconvoy

He's unfortunately somewhat right, for basic unfitted cloth masks, which is why I wear an n95 when I go shopping. If 100% of people wore a cloth mask they would have a lot more value, but there will always be a certain percentage of antisocial maladaptives to spoil things (case in point).



knifeknight said:


> So what‘s the reason you‘re wearing this rag ?



Interesting word choice... do masks threaten your masculinity? What are you afraid of losing by wearing one? Don't live your life in fear!


----------



## MarcelNL

knifeknight said:


> But why get people infected with corona if wearing a mask protects 100% against all other pneumonal viruses ????
> 
> In Germany we had no law to wear masks during the first wave. During the second & third it was obligatory to wear one. Most people got ill and died despite wearing masks all the time.
> 
> You need no studies to see this…


yet you may need to study to understand that drawing conclusions like this does not work.

For all we know the low incidence of common cold may be due to increased frequency of hand washing, or social distancing, or the fact that many people will think twice to share a spoon or glass currently. Without digging into the mechanics behind this observation all we can do is guess, usually guesswork overlooks key factors.


----------



## LostHighway

Lars said:


> Sorry for OT, but I can't help it - every time I see this thread I think of the album by Refused: The Shape Of Punk To Come



There was an (excellent) album in 1959 by Ornette Coleman's quartet called "The Shape of Jazz to Come" but I was specifically thinking of a 1968 B-movie titled "Wild in the Streets". A fictional rock band in the film does the song "Nothing Can Change the Shape of Things to Come."

IMO "yes" to masks, especially N99, P95, N95, or KF95 masks, especially in any indoor situations and "yes" to getting as much of the world vaccinated as quickly as possible. The "market" will not solve this and restrictions and/or mandates will likely be necessary. I'm not keen on forcing people to get vaccinations but I have no issue with restricting those who refuse from certain types of employment or limitations on where they can go. However, if we're going to go down that road we need way less easily counterfeit-able verification than the current (in the USA) cards. My faith in the inherent intelligence, rationality, and consideration for their fellow creatures, of the human race is almost nonexistent.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

It's not just wearing the mask other variables 
are a factor. Like washing your hands or having 
hand sanitizer in your car or bus whatever transport you use. After touching all the surfaces you don't think about when you are out. If you remove mask & touch your face before washing & sanitize your hands wasted 
effort.

Early on we took it serious being seniors.
Even sanitize wash food, jars, boxes of cereal etc. leave out in the sun for a day. Never washed my hands so much in my life. It helps
better half retired Nurse. Some retired nurses went back when hospitals were overloaded 
& hospital workers long hours.

After we got both our shots relaxed a bit. It did
create better habits. Made me realize how much touch my face that's why masks work not just keeping airborne virus at bay.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

BillHanna said:


> If you’re going to die anyways, why try to live life? Why try to eat well? Immortality is outside of our grasp. Just eat shxt and die.



No need vaccine, mask, plenty fast food to eat,
drugs to get high. The herd needs thinning anyway to damn many of us.


----------



## Bill13

Finally, someone is being allowed to say, on CNN no less, that all this cloth, and I will add, surgical mask wearing is ineffective. If you can smell thru the mask - he uses the smoke from the fires out west, it is not stopping a virus. Unlsee you are the type to cough or sneeze without covering your mouth, then yes, please wear a mask.



Even in the UK they are now writing about how maskes don't work. I wonder why this (likely) coordinated decision was made now? Maybe necessary to increase the vaccination rate? After all if people actually believe masks work why get the vaccine.









Cloth face masks are 'comfort blankets' that do little to curb Covid spread, Scientist warns


Dr Colin Axon warned some cloth masks have gaps that are invisible to the naked eye, but are 5000 times the size of viral Covid particles




t.co


----------



## knifeknight

Sweden is one of the few countries around the world which did not join the lockdown hype. A study which shows that NPI‘s (including wearing masks) did not have any effect on spreading of covid: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.07.21260167v1.full.pdf. 

Germany with one of the harshest measures against covid in Europe - including massive violations of human rights and it‘s own constitution - did not fare any better….


----------



## knifeknight

This is what happened in Berlin last weekend: Nach Querdenker-Demo: Kritik an Polizeiübergriffen wächst and Brutale Szenen: Wie Berliner Polizei bei der verbotenen "Corona-Demo" zugriff

This are pictures like Belarus a few weeks before. Why doesn‘t „Sleepy Joe“ impose any bans on Germany because of violating human rights ?!


----------



## tcmx3

"holes in the masks are bigger than covid virus" is so stupid I dont think anyone who takes that line is even teachable anymore.

people can argue about mask efficacy all they want but if you dont even understand the basics of aerosol transmission IMO you should stfu. unlike our usual banter around here about our silly knives there are consequences to being insanely wrong about the basics of covid.


----------



## MarcelNL

Hindsight is 20-20, or as they say in my region, in hindsight you can look a cow in the ass.

I'd say all this messaging does is enable people against any measures to lay smoke screens...it keeps everyone from getting educated and getting vaccinated, a sort of fatalistic approach of inshallah is near, 'whatever we do it will not work so let's not even bother to try' is what a lot of the public will start thinking.

Over here masks were mostly implemented to create awareness, hoping to make folks self conscious of their behavior. Does that work? Nope, does it discount the attempt? not IMO.


----------



## tcmx3

MarcelNL said:


> Hindsight is 20-20, or as they say in my region, in hindsight you can look a cow in the ass.
> 
> I'd say all this messaging does is enable people against any measures to lay smoke screens...it keeps everyone from getting educated and getting vaccinated, a sort of fatalistic approach of inshallah is near, 'whatever we do it will not work so let's not even bother to try' is what a lot of the public will start thinking.
> 
> Over here masks were mostly implemented to create awareness, hoping to make folks self conscious of their behavior. Does that work? Nope, does it discount the attempt? not IMO.



and I mean masks are effective at reducing your projection of aerosols.

I agree that we need to get everyone vaccinated. of course here in the US there is now emerging evidence that low income people are not getting vaccinated because no one believes it is actually free. which you know, when you look at how US healthcare works and how people are getting the rug pulled out from under them left right and center, I can understand. when youre constantly lied to, extracted from and hit with insane hidden prices of course you would believe this is just one more opportunity to **** you over.


----------



## MarcelNL

I hear you, the history of health care AND drug manufacturers in the US is against them, and all of us now...not an easy predicament to solve....mobilize every star, artist, celebrity and advertize big time, some something like that...and still it won't be enough to convince the people that became cynical and the folks that have gone numb.


----------



## tcmx3

MarcelNL said:


> I hear you, the history of health care AND drug manufacturers in the US is against them, and all of us now...not an easy predicament to solve....mobilize every star, artist, celebrity and advertize big time, some something like that...and still it won't be enough to convince the people that became cynical and the folks that have gone numb.



I dont know if star power works anymore. People have very low trust.

If you want to solve the issue IMO start a huge gofundme with like 100 million fake dollars in it and have it say "if you get a covid vaccine and have any charges send us a copy of your receipt we'll pay you no questions asked" since gofundme is basically half the US health insurance system now and people actually trust that


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## M1k3




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## M1k3




----------



## WildBoar

Oshidashi said:


> No need for the government to mandate vaccines. Just allow companies to restrict nonvax from stores, restaurants, groceries, convenience stores, movie theaters, buses, taxis, trains, cruise lines, etc., and people will choose vaccination.





Keith Sinclair said:


> Vaccine card or app on phone your right to
> passage.


one thing I have not seen discussed here are fake vaccination cards. They are a real thing. Where my ex-brother-in-law works all employees are required to be vaccinated. A bunch of people who did not want to do so instead acquired fake vaccination cards. So now you are talking about the potential need for new cards that have forgery-prevention things, like holographic images, etc.

I'm all for requiring proof of vaccination before being allowed into certain places, but we are a long way out from being able to ensure the proof is legitimate.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

I got my card with second moderna shot. With dates of shots. Carry it in my wallet.

I really wonder how many people who don't get vaccinated will go to trouble to get fake cards.

It's like discussion of mask not being effective.
It can go on forever there are anti vaccine blogs
that sound legit that people believe. Here the covid count is rising pretty much all non vaccine. People in intensive care ward that can't breathe. 

We can't afford another shutdown. More get shots the better. Mask indoors public places
no big deal to me gotten used to it. I know it works, washing hands, sanitiser in car. Deff.
works. Like said never had even a cold since
before covid-19. Shoot I used to catch colds
couple times a year just going to grocery & drug stores. No mask, washing hands, sanitizer.

Can't convince me they don't work. Will never go back to old lax habits. Used to get pissed of when caught a cold it's preventable with good
habits. 

I don't buy infringing on people's rights.
Hawaii has a out of control homeless problem.
I've known for a long time many are meth addicts. Just saw a discussion on PBS local.
A head of nursing was debating with a gov.
official about what % is mental illness & drug addiction. She is on front lines. At first patients
that would come to hospital were thought to be mental but found they had been meth addicts
for years and appeared mental. She & another
front line worker who serves meals to homeless say most are meth addicts as much
70%. Think about it do we really give a rip about
druggy that can't work, reverts to stealing to support habit or deals to others. 
Evidently the laws In Hawaii protect their rights
Only can give help if they want it.


----------



## MarcelNL

Where I live you can buy fake vaccination passports too, but the QR code/certificate is handled by the govt resp for vaccinating, faking that is a bit more difficult. Surely in the US it should also be possible to setup a system that is reasonably foolproof, I just don't get why that was not done from scratch (same here, I also do not get why the paper vaccination passport does not have any security markings in it)


----------



## Matus

knifeknight said:


> Sweden is one of the few countries around the world which did not join the lockdown hype. A study which shows that NPI‘s (including wearing masks) did not have any effect on spreading of covid: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.07.21260167v1.full.pdf.
> 
> Germany with one of the harshest measures against covid in Europe - including massive violations of human rights and it‘s own constitution - did not fare any better….



One always needs to be careful when comparing different countries with different social structures, population densities, etc. It makes more sense to compare Sweden to countries like Finland or Norway - both of which had 5 - 10 times less Covid related deaths then Sweden (per capita, that is).

So far Germany fared by about factor 2 better than UK or France.

One way or another - these comparisons need to be done with care and understanding that it never quite is apples to apples ...


----------



## Luftmensch

WildBoar said:


> one thing I have not seen discussed here are fake vaccination cards. They are a real thing.





.... they gotta find a way to put that vaccine sh!t in the water supply....


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> .... they gotta find a way to put that vaccine sh!t in the water supply....


Oh no, they are going to mess with our precious bodily fluids again!


----------



## Michi

Bill13 said:


> Finally, someone is being allowed to say, on CNN no less, that all this cloth, and I will add, surgical mask wearing is ineffective.


Bill, thank your for your ongoing and supremely interesting contributions to this forum. Fortunately, other people have already linked to evidence that shows why masks are effective. While a cloth mask will be less effective than an N95 mask, that does not mean that it has _no_ effect.


> and I will add, surgical mask wearing is ineffective



That is not what he said:

"We need to talk about better masking. We need to talk about N95 respirators, which would do a _lot_ for both people who are not yet vaccinated or not previously infected, protecting them as well as keeping others who might become infected, having been vaccinated from breathing out the virus."

I really wonder what the agenda is here. What is the point? Is the goal to discourage people from wearing masks and to see as many infections and dead people as possible? In the face of overwhelming evidence that masks _do_ make a difference?


----------



## Michi

knifeknight said:


> Sweden is one of the few countries around the world which did not join the lockdown hype. A study which shows that NPI‘s (including wearing masks) did not have any effect on spreading of covid: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.07.21260167v1.full.pdf.


That is a pre-print not certified by peer review. Excellent cherry picking though, congratulations!



knifeknight said:


> This are pictures like Belarus a few weeks before. Why doesn‘t „Sleepy Joe“ impose any bans on Germany because of violating human rights ?!


Comparing the events in Germany with what goes on in Belarus is preposterous in the extreme. The two are not even vaguely comparable situations.


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## riba

Here, input isn't messed with. But output is measured (amount of particles in sewer)



Luftmensch said:


> .... they gotta find a way to put that vaccine sh!t in the water supply....


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> Oh no, they are going to mess with our precious bodily fluids again!





Exactly @Michi... Exactly... 

Do you realize that vaccines are the most monstrously conceived and dangerous Communist plot we have ever had to face? 

I have torn off the mask... There's no other choice. God willing, we will prevail in peace and freedom from fear and in true health through the purity and essence of our natural fluids. God bless you all.


----------



## Luftmensch

riba said:


> Here, input isn't messed with. But output is measured (amount of particles in sewer)



They do that here as well...

.... Funny anecdote. Several years ago, our Government wanted to test welfare recipients for drugs. As part of that strategy, they raised the idea of testing sewerage to help identify drug hotspots... The idea was criticised. We already do it. Rather humorously... many affluent suburbs in Australia have high drug use.... so it didn't really fit the narrative of "lazy welfare recipients spending all their money on drugs"... the narrative could equally be... "all the coked up bankers"...


----------



## Michi

The people who are dying now are almost exclusively unvaccinated. Of course, a person's choice to not get the vaccine is inalienable. At least until legislation says otherwise. But, before it comes to that, I suspect that people will simply find it increasingly more difficult to find employment without proof of vaccination.

I do find it impressive that people are willing to risk their life and the lives of their household members in order to make their anti-vaccination point. At least they are not beating about the bush…


----------



## juice

Bill13 said:


> After all if people actually believe masks work why get the vaccine.


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, that "logic" is astounding.


----------



## Michi

juice said:


> HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, that "logic" is astounding.


The fallacy of the excluded middle: "If you are not for us, you are against us." Or "Some masks don't work as well as others, therefore none of them work."

And the fallacy of non sequitur. "People believe that masks work. Therefore, they don't need a vaccine."

The premise is false and, even if it were true, it would not imply the conclusion. In other words, the argument is both invalid and unsound.


----------



## MarcelNL

Matus said:


> One always needs to be careful when comparing different countries with different social structures, population densities, etc. It makes more sense to compare Sweden to countries like Finland or Norway - both of which had 5 - 10 times less Covid related deaths then Sweden (per capita, that is).
> 
> So far Germany fared by about factor 2 better than UK or France.
> 
> One way or another - these comparisons need to be done with care and understanding that it never quite is apples to apples ...


Agree completely!

Perhaps, probably 'rather likely', the ratio of ICU beds per capita AND the setup of the 1st and 2nd tier of healthcare plus the quality of medical training has something to do with that comparison between Germany and the UK and France? From my dealings with German, French and UK hospitals over the decades past I'd guess Germany does things pretty well. 

Covid deaths, while the number is absolute, is not a uniform measure at all. At best it's a surrogate parameter including the outcome parameters of the health system in every country. I'd be interested to see a graph showing objective health care parameters for those Covid patients admitted to ICU (whatever uniform score works, something like APACHE perhaps) plotted against number of patients who died per 100 ICU submissions.


----------



## Michi

This is long and pertinent. Probably mostly of interest to Australians. It basically shows the monumental stuff-up of Australia's hotel quarantine "strategy". As to the effectiveness of masks, scroll to 17:40, where this is presented in some detail (and rationally).

And, if you want a laugh (really mixed with tears and dismay), this is the corresponding Honest Government Ad. (Warning: strong language):


----------



## Michi

And, while we are on factoids:

The Delta variant is about as transmissible as chicken pox. Doesn't sound serious? Well, here you go…

The Delta variant is _more_ transmissible than:

MERS
SARS
Ebola
Common cold
Seasonal flu
Spanish flu
Smallpox
Masks? Why would anyone bother if it's more transmissible than ebola and smallpox…


----------



## Nemo

Michi said:


> And, while we are on factoids:
> 
> The Delta variant is about as transmissible as chicken pox. Doesn't sound serious? Well, here you go…
> 
> The Delta variant is _more_ transmissible than:
> 
> MERS
> SARS
> Ebola
> Common cold
> Seasonal flu
> Spanish flu
> Smallpox
> Masks? Why would anyone bother if it's more transmissible than ebola and small pox…



On the up side, delta is somewhat less transmissible than measles.

OTOH, measles is so contagious that you are likely to catch it if you walk into the same room as an infected person several hours after they left. Unless you are vaccinated.

Who knows how transmissible the Tau variant will be? Let alone Omega...

In retrospect, the Greek alphabet may not have been the best nomenclature system for more and more dangerous variants of an already very dangerous disease.


----------



## Michi

Nemo said:


> On the up side, delta is somewhat less transmissible than measles.


Oh, wow, what a relief! 



> OTOH, measles is so contagious that you are likely to catch it if you walk into the same room as an infected person several hours after they left. Unless you are vaccinated.


Yes. Measles is truly evil. Thanks to Mr Wakefield, its incidence is on the rise again. But, hey, brain damage or death from measles is fairly rare, so that's OK, right? After all, we need to stand up for our right to make death-style choices on behalf of our children, no?



> Who knows how transmissible the Tau variant will be? Let alone Omega...
> 
> In retrospect, the Greek alphabet may not have been the best nomenclature system for more and more dangerous variants of an already very dangerous disease.


I so wish that you were wrong. I'm seriously afraid that you are right 

There is every chance that, with our selfish and half-arsed approach to vaccination, we are creating the perfect breeding ground for new mutations. My personal expectation is that Covid will dominate all human activity for at least the next two decades. I sincerely hope that I am wrong


----------



## tcmx3

Nemo said:


> On the up side, delta is somewhat less transmissible than measles.
> 
> OTOH, measles is so contagious that you are likely to catch it if you walk into the same room as an infected person several hours after they left. Unless you are vaccinated.
> 
> Who knows how transmissible the Tau variant will be? Let alone Omega...
> 
> In retrospect, the Greek alphabet may not have been the best nomenclature system for more and more dangerous variants of an already very dangerous disease.



think of all the fights over whether it's the O-meg-uh variant or the O-mee-guh variant!


----------



## knifeknight

Michi said:


> That is a pre-print not certified by peer review. Excellent cherry picking though, congratulations!
> 
> 
> Comparing the events in Germany with what goes on in Belarus is preposterous in the extreme. The two are not even vaguely comparable situations.


Are you living in GER or am I ? Are you seeing how your fellow citizens got thrashed by police thugs and your constitutional rights got trampled on ?


----------



## Michi

tcmx3 said:


> think of all the fights over whether it's the O-meg-uh variant or the O-mee-guh variant!


Right. Come judgement day, you wouldn’t want to be heard dead mispronouncing that, would you now?


----------



## Michi

knifeknight said:


> Are you living in GER or am I ? Are you seeing how your fellow citizens got thrashed by police thugs and your constitutional rights got trampled on ?


I am German, I grew up in Germany, and I have spent several weeks there each year for most of the past forty years. I do believe that I have a pretty good handle on what’s going on there.

While you are at it, you might take a look at the Wikipedia entry for ad hominem.


----------



## riba

(withdrawn)


----------



## Luftmensch

tcmx3 said:


> think of all the fights over whether it's the O-meg-uh variant or the O-mee-guh variant!



The proper way would be to say: "the meg" in Jason Statham's voice.

@Michi, @Nemo, @juice... There is a good chance you're familiar with Tony Martin. His podcast SIZZLETOWN is a bit of fun if you want something silly and fun... (Last year his Covid reporting with David Panic was hilarious)


----------



## spaceconvoy

Michi said:


> I do find it impressive that people are willing to risk their life and the lives of their household members in order to make their anti-vaccination point. At least they are not beating about the bush…


Remember, "every accusation is a confession." When they talk about 'not living in fear' I believe they're revealing how truly terrified they are of the vaccine. They have a mindset that doesn't allow them to admit they're afraid of anything, probably even to themselves. I don't think they're making a point so much as protecting their ego with twisted logic.


----------



## MarcelNL

A virus that is more easily passed on does not need to be more dangerous, Ebola is so deadly that outbreaks kill plenty folks but are a sort of self limiting event because the virus is not able to survive for long without a host.

A comparison between transmission rate of viruses without taking the severity of disease into account is invalid IMO.

Hardly anyone cares about the common cold, it's a nuisance but still contagious, the 'seasonal flu' (nice euphemism that means we try to predict which variant is going round) has higher severity (some folks are at risk of dying from it, hence the yearly vaccination schemes in most countries) and also contagious...Ebola is something different, its contagious and deadly, but it is so deadly that it usually does not spread widely.

What I read so far is that the expectation is that there will be more contagious variants, yet that the expectation also is that the newer variants have lower severity of disease. I hope those scientist are proven right.


----------



## daveb

So now for something completely different.

How many variants do we have to go through before we work around back to the Hunan variant?


----------



## ian

*wuhan

The original virus is gone. Lost in a miasma of mutation, never to return. RIP poor O.G. covid. I shed tears for you and your unparalleled vaccine vulnerability.


----------



## MarcelNL

Do we have a resident evolution theorist and Virologist at KKF? Given that there are hardly any signs of evolution going in circles or even backwards it might be improbable, but I admit the question is interesting!


----------



## Nemo

MarcelNL said:


> A virus that is more easily passed on does not need to be more dangerous, Ebola is so deadly that outbreaks kill plenty folks but are a sort of self limiting event because the virus is not able to survive for long without a host.
> 
> A comparison between transmission rate of viruses without taking the severity of disease into account is invalid IMO.
> 
> Hardly anyone cares about the common cold, it's a nuisance but still contagious, the 'seasonal flu' (nice euphemism that means we try to predict which variant is going round) has higher severity (some folks are at risk of dying from it, hence the yearly vaccination schemes in most countries) and also contagious...Ebola is something different, its contagious and deadly, but it is so deadly that it usually does not spread widely.
> 
> What I read so far is that the expectation is that there will be more contagious variants, yet that the expectation also is that the newer variants have lower severity of disease. I hope those scientist are proven right.


This certainly occurred with pandemic influenza, over a period of 2-3 years. Covid has a much slower rate of mutation than influenza and has so far shown no signs of becoming less virulent (more benign).

I do hope that future variants are less virulent, but I don't think we should count on it.

On the upside, vaccines have been more successful more quickly than we could have reasonably hoped for. There is good reason to hope that boosters for the variants will be available in a similarly short time frame and there is a good chance that advances in therapeutics will make Covid a partially or even fully treatable condition.

On the downside, however, our modern communication technologies and platforms make it very easy to spread misinformation around Covid and vaccines (and indeed many other things).


----------



## MarcelNL

methinks that social media should be the place for any virus to mutate into!


----------



## Luftmensch

Nemo said:


> there is a good chance that advances in therapeutics will make Covid a partially or even fully treatable condition.



I am sure we will find a way to reduce mortality if intervention occurs at the right time. The thing that scares me is long covid. That can apparently occur after mild cases. In the long run... perhaps advances will also provide people with long covid some treatment options. I suppose the "opportunity" there, is the medical community may find answers that provide people with chronic fatigue some long needed relief.

Given the complex way the pathogen wrecks the joint, I am pretty sure there will be no silver bullet. At the moment it sounds like each case has to be considered independently. In time, hopefully the medical community will find underlying patterns.


----------



## Nemo

Luftmensch said:


> I am sure we will find a way to reduce mortality if intervention occurs at the right time. The thing that scares me is long covid. That can apparently occur after mild cases. In the long run... perhaps advances will also provide people with long covid some treatment options. I suppose the "opportunity" there, is the medical community may find answers that provide people with chronic fatigue some long needed relief.
> 
> Given the complex way the pathogen wrecks the joint, I am pretty sure there will be no silver bullet. At the moment it sounds like each case has to be considered independently. In time, hopefully the medical community will find underlying patterns.


I also see long Covid as potentially a big problem, both in personal and macroeconomic terms. Hopefully vaccination helps prevent it.

It's worth pointing out that it may be the immune system that does as much damage as Covid does.

I think we will learn a lot about the function of the immune system over the next few years.


----------



## juice

Just had my second AZ shot, so both of us here have had both shots (AZ and Pfizer).


----------



## Luftmensch

juice said:


> Just had my second AZ shot, so both of us here have had both shots (AZ and Pfizer).



Just to disambiguate... each of you have had both AZ and Pzifer? Or between the two of you, one has had AZ and one has had Pfizer???


----------



## Michi

Got my second shot (AZ) three days ago. At least I'm highly unlikely to die now if I get the infection. Not sure what it means for long Covid though. Anyone happen to have any data?

Regardless, not getting infected (despite the vaccine) is probably an excellent idea, so I'll continue to exercise caution.


----------



## M1k3

Luftmensch said:


> Just to disambiguate... each of you have had both AZ and Pzifer? Or between the two of you, one has had AZ and one has had Pfizer???


One got AZ (Juice) and the other Pfizer (occasional knife user spouse).


----------



## Matus

I recall reading a couple of weeks ago that there were signs that vaccination helped to ease some long Covid effects, but I have not heard any updates in that regard. I think there is not enough data yet for any serious statements. The problem with long Covid is, that the range of health issues it brings is super wide and doctors just have no idea how to treat it. So yes, for me personally (unlikely to die, plus I got both shots already too) the long Covid is what I consider the main risk to me and my family (we can inoculate the kids yet as they are too yong). Long Covid, sadly is also showing up with kids who had super mild symptoms.


----------



## Luftmensch

M1k3 said:


> One got AZ (Juice) and the other Pfizer (occasional knife user spouse).



That was my guess... but you never know! The distribution here is so ramshackle!

On that point.... I am worried about waiting for Pfizer and am seriously considering getting in the queue for AZ just so I have some level of immunity. I figure those (in Australia) who have had AZ will get a chance to have Pfizer when the inevitable booster shots are released in a year or two...


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> On that point.... I am worried about waiting for Pfizer and am seriously considering getting in the queue for AZ just so I have some level of immunity.


Just go and do it. Your chance of dying from Covid is many, many times greater than getting any serious complications from the vaccine. We accept a risk of dying far greater than the risk of dying from the vaccine every time we climb into a car…

Edit: Reported by ABC News today: "About 6.8 million doses of AstraZeneca have now been administered across the country, with seven deaths linked to the vaccine."


----------



## juice

Luftmensch said:


> On that point.... I am worried about waiting for Pfizer and am seriously considering getting in the queue for AZ just so I have some level of immunity.


Way more sensible than waiting, absolutely. I've had my two AZ shots.


----------



## riba

Matus said:


> I recall reading a couple of weeks ago that there were signs that vaccination helped to ease some long Covid effects, but I have not heard any updates in that regard. I think there is not enough data yet for any serious statements.


Out of experience, I can say that a vaccination can also worsen the effects again (as in 'back to square 1'). And I am not the only one according the pulmonologist.
(Not implying at all that one shouldn't vaccinate)


----------



## Matus

riba said:


> Out of experience, I can say that a vaccination can also worsen the effects again (as in 'back to square 1'). And I am not the only one according the pulmonologist.
> (Not implying at all that one shouldn't vaccinate)



That is not particularly encouraging. How long after Covid did you receive the shot? Here in Germany it is recommended to wait for 6 months and those who had Covid only get 1 shot and not 2. I have of course no idea whether this plays any role.


----------



## riba

Matus said:


> That is not particularly encouraging. How long after Covid did you receive the shot? Here in Germany it is recommended to wait for 6 months and those who had Covid only get 1 shot and not 2. I have of course no idea whether this plays any role.


3.5 months. The advice (in NL) used to be to get 1 shot within 6 months after COVID-19, otherwise 2. (Though that changed now to 1 shot).
There is very little data wrt long covid. In my case also no data is being collected. I did report my experience to the national pharmacovigilance center.


----------



## Michi

Much of Australia is still under lock-down. Hard lock-down. No visitors allowed, not allowed to leave the home other than to buy essentials or medical supplies, and then only within 5 or 10 km. The idea is that, if everyone stays put and doesn't meet other people, those people who are infected won't infect others.

Here is how we get the message across in Australia. Warning: this video contains normal Australian language which, in most other countries, would possibly qualify as strong language


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> Here is how we get the message across in Australia.



Bob spencer doing a sweet guitar lick with pluggers on his mitts


----------



## juice

Michi said:


> Much of Australia


Apart from Sydney/NSW, which is still just playing around with a mockdown...



Luftmensch said:


> Bob spencer doing a sweet guitar lick with pluggers on his mitts


Bob is awesome


----------



## Jville

This study shows there are serious risks and that the risks are not being conveyed to consumers properly. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/ar...oILTRQh5dwEqqSCWCHXlU6gG7xef_WXHJ0uUmjgoHfhkk


----------



## Kippington

Jville said:


> This study shows there are serious risks and that the risks are not being conveyed to consumers properly. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/ar...oILTRQh5dwEqqSCWCHXlU6gG7xef_WXHJ0uUmjgoHfhkk


I'm not worried about this paper.

Back when it was written (before any official vaccine release), it was a preconceived warning for a possible danger of the vaccine trials that took place roughly a year ago, specifically about what might happen if you caught the actual disease while the trial was in effect.

Basically, something is known to have happened with other vaccines in the past (examples given are respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), dengue virus and measles)... but today enough people have taken the Covid vaccines that we can look back on this paper and say that it isn't a massive concern.

The major take-away is: While you're undergoing a vaccination for _*any*_ kind of virus, try not to catch the actual disease at the same time. It will suck big time.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

That article is used a lot on the Web Timothy
Cardozo & Ronald Veazey. Very scientific sounding. Used by groups who are against vaccine.


----------



## spaceconvoy

Antibody-dependent enhancement and SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and therapies - Nature Microbiology


Mechanisms of antibody-dependent enhancement of disease and mitigation strategies for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and therapies are discussed.




www.nature.com





Here is a more thorough paper, not just an empty three-page hypothetical. One interesting point:

"Vaccines with a high theoretical risk of inducing pathologic ADE or ERD include inactivated viral vaccines"

This theoretical risk was examined during phase 2 and 3 trials, and if it had been a problem it would have been more likely to appear in inactivated viral vaccines like Sinovac and Sinopharm. But some people will always be like


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Because of this thread & one of my siblings thinks it's more dangerous to get vacinne. I researched the anti vac scene on line. 

Cardozo & Veazey are scientist they wrote article 2020. Their concerns never panned out so far. But their article is all over anti vaccine sites. You would not believe some of the claims by guys like Hotze just fact check the guy. He made money on line selling cure all's on line.

One lady forgot her name said if you take vaccine you will be dead within two years.
Then of coarse you will get sterile before you die


----------



## riba

Keith Sinclair said:


> One lady forgot her name said if you take vaccine you will be dead within two years.
> Then of coarse you will get sterile before you die


You mean I can cancel my vasectomy? That'd be really nice!


----------



## Michi

A collection of peer-reviewed articles that show that masks not just work, but work well.









Do face masks work? Here are 49 scientific studies that explain why they do


Reasons for mask hesitancy and doubt include conflicting data from health officials, political biases and cultural unfamiliarity (studies showed mask wearing was lower in countries where face maski…




www.kxan.com





These aren't articles put up on some non peer-reviewed pre-print website, but published by (among others) the American Medical Association, the National Academy of Science, the New England Journal of Medicine, The Lancet, etc.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

I watched the Olympics, in Japan everyone was 
wearing masks. The USA families that had to stay home were streamed live to athletes who
had won. Groups up to 50 people none were wearing mask. Maybe all had shots but plenty
kids too. 

You have to have shots to get here, to go anywhere in public must wear mask. No need
on the beach. We still have outdoor not mandatory mask rule. During lockdown outside & inside public places must wear mask.


----------



## tcmx3

I gotta say I'm seeing more pressure by some of the folks in my life to force people back into the way things were.

Forcing kids back to school, bosses insisting on getting the ICs back in office chairs, etc. I feel very fortunate that not only have I saved money recently but by zeroing out my students loans during the interest rate deferral (which btw proved the rates could have and should always have been 0%) if someone decides to try and tell me to put my job above my health I can tell them to go **** themselves.

Luckily my boss has a clue, but some of the other folks I see seem to think COVID's over while cases here spike and the ICUs are literally running out of beds.

Also, unverfied since the prof didnt disclose what school theyre at, but they claimed they were told that if these unvaccinated kids the uni wants in physical seats get the prof sick the prof has to take sick leave rather than move the course online. some real psycho **** by folks who simply dont care.

you know I still feel this way about it; if you are willing to sacrifice other people (cough ahem my state's lieutenant gov) then I think you should commit harakiri on air to prove that you are willing to make the sacrifice yourself


----------



## ian

I gotta say, getting kids back in school is a _huge_ priority for me*. Kids not in school means parents who can't work, and it means kids who are not learning to socialize and mature intellectually. At least in schools, the teachers can enforce masking and distancing, if necessary. Having kids back in schools that ignore COVID spread is not going to go well, but I think with the appropriate precautions it's absolutely a good idea to open schools.

At the college where I work, vaccines are required for students, faculty and staff. Given that, though, they plan to open "as normal", with little further precautions. We'll see if that changes if there's increased delta spread in the area.



*As a parent of a young child, I am biased. But if a significant portion of the poopulation shares my acute need, is it really bias?


----------



## spaceconvoy

ian said:


> But if a significant portion of the poopulation shares my acute need, is it really bias?


Yes 
For a scientific citation see: racism


----------



## tcmx3

ian said:


> I gotta say, getting kids back in school is a _huge_ priority for me*. Kids not in school means parents who can't work, and it means kids who are not learning to socialize and mature intellectually. At least in schools, the teachers can enforce masking and distancing, if necessary. Having kids back in schools that ignore COVID spread is not going to go well, but I think with the appropriate precautions it's absolutely a good idea to open schools.
> 
> At the college where I work, vaccines are required for students, faculty and staff. Given that, though, they plan to open "as normal", with little further precautions. We'll see if that changes if there's increased delta spread in the area.
> 
> 
> 
> *As a parent of a young child, I am biased. But if a significant portion of the poopulation shares my acute need, is it really bias?



I mean we went through the same thing last year right. 

Im dealing with freshman undergrad admissions and them wanting in-person attendance. But at least over 18 they can get vaccinated so Im grateful.

I have never personally shared the view that the point of school is childcare. 

The priority IMO, is not dying. Especially with Delta putting kids in the ICU at an alarming rate where the previous variant didnt so much.

Enforcing masking and distancing by the teacher sounds about as effective as those same teachers convincing kids not to smoke pot, drink or have sex. 

I remain wholly unconvinced. I think that the dominant political power in the US is a demographic group who are either vaccinated at a much rate or who dont believe in this thing anyway, and they want their lives back more than they value other people's lives. I mean I can accept if people dont calculate out the risks the same way I do but I remain unconvinced by the argument that we need to reopen schools, get back to working in the office, etc.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Schools opened here too. Some private schools have been opened longer. Lockdown
hit families hard. Lost jobs kids at home. It is not the norm for kids to learn remotely from a laptop. Some did well, others fell behind.

It's kind of like being your own boss working from home online. 

5G is a game changer in all walks of life when 
complete.


----------



## tcmx3

Keith Sinclair said:


> Schools opened here too. Some private schools have been opened longer. Lockdown
> hit families hard. Lost jobs kids at home. It is not the norm for kids to learn remotely from a laptop. Some did well, others fell behind.
> 
> It's kind of like being your own boss working from home online.
> 
> 5G is a game changer in all walks of life when
> complete.



this is our chance to rethink education.

maybe do away with standardized tests and the grift machine that swarms that chum, stop using property taxes, calm down about dumb stuff that isnt even being taught but is causing mass hysteria in half the population, give kids digital books for free instead so every kid has a new, up to date text, give families direct payments for food in lieu of reduced lunch.

I mean there's so much we could do, but it seems to me like the only thing people actually wanna do is just stick those little ****ers back in there.

I know it's hard having them around when you work I lived through it too I just think that's not as bad as the human Im responsible for getting COVID, again especially now that it seems to be putting kids in the hospital with symptoms.


----------



## ian

tcmx3 said:


> I have never personally shared the view that the point of school is childcare.



I mean, it's not the whole point, but many parents can't work if their kids are home. And some parents actually need to go to work for the country to function.



tcmx3 said:


> Enforcing masking and distancing by the teacher sounds about as effective as those same teachers convincing kids not to smoke pot, drink or have sex.



I think teachers are actually quite effective at not letting their students smoke pot, drink or have sex while in the classroom. Here's a study saying masks work in schools. I'm sure there are others.



tcmx3 said:


> I remain wholly unconvinced. I think that the dominant political power in the US is a demographic group who are either vaccinated at a much rate or who dont believe in this thing anyway, and they want their lives back more than they value other people's lives. I mean I can accept if people dont calculate out the risks the same way I do but I remain unconvinced by the argument that we need to reopen schools, get back to working in the office, etc.



It's not that the people advocating for it just want life to be normal, so they're willing to ignore the pandemic. They just think that there are just a ton of things that one should do before closing schools, e.g. universal mask mandates, closing nonessential businesses, etc...




tcmx3 said:


> maybe do away with standardized tests and the grift machine that swarms that chum, stop using property taxes, calm down about dumb stuff that isnt even being taught but is causing mass hysteria in half the population, give kids digital books for free instead so every kid has a new, up to date text, give families direct payments for food in lieu of reduced lunch.
> 
> I mean there's so much we could do, but it seems to me like the only thing people actually wanna do is just stick those little ****ers back in there.



Yea, I support a lot of those action items. However, if kids aren't in school then what is the point of doing any of that? I don't think this has any relevance to the question of whether kids should go back.



Keith Sinclair said:


> 5G is a game changer in all walks of life when
> complete.



Ah, you're a proponent of universal vaccination too, eh?


----------



## ian

spaceconvoy said:


> Yes
> For a scientific citation see: racism



Hah, touche.


----------



## tcmx3

ian said:


> I mean, it's not the whole point, but many parents can't work if their kids are home. And some parents actually need to go to work for the country to function.
> 
> I think teachers are actually quite effective at not letting their students smoke pot, drink or have sex while in the classroom. Here's a study saying masks work in schools. I'm sure there are others.
> 
> It's not that the people advocating for it just want life to be normal, so they're willing to ignore the pandemic. They just think that there are just a ton of things that one should do before closing schools, e.g. universal mask mandates, closing nonessential businesses, etc...
> 
> Yea, I support a lot of those action items. However, if kids aren't in school then what is the point of doing any of that? I don't think this has any relevance to the question of whether kids should go back.



again I know it's tough when the kids are home. I have a solution to that problem but people don't like it (it rhymes with "direct payments")

also yes, I do think masks probably would work to reduce the spread compared to if there was no mask policy. but it was not so long ago that I was in school that Ive forgotten how little I played by the rules. and covid is so transmissible that kids taking their masks off in the hallway is a huge issue. and while yes, I think your average teacher does a good job in their own classroom, controlling kids at large, even in a school building? doesnt sound like any school I went to. 

in my opinion, the facts on the ground regarding Delta make reopening schools risky at best. transmission by those with vaccines, lack of availability of vaccines for minors, low rates of vaccinations in the US, Delta showing acute symptoms in children, etc. plus child to parent transmission for those unvaccinated... I dunno it sounds like a really bad plan to me.

re your point about relevance, that's more opportunistic than being related to kids going back. our education system is beyond ****ed I am still holding out the tiniest sliver of hope that we can make some material changes to bring some sanity back to it.

also mate I used to live in Boston. I gotta tell you if I still lived there I'd feel a whole lot better about this whole thing. here in Texas the people are... I mean you just cant compare. and around where I live, people most certainly are ignoring the pandemic so they can pretend they have their life back to "normal" now.


----------



## Michi

Kids really suffer in isolation. It's not just that they are not getting their normal education, but that they can't interact with other kids, which is immensely important for their wellbeing and mental health.

The government here was very reluctant to close schools for another reason: unfortunately, many kids are much safer at school than they are at home, especially when cooped up for weeks with a violent parent


----------



## Keith Sinclair

We had some child abuse during lockdown.
Haven't heard anything in news since opened
up again parents back to work. 

The school thing is on for now won't know till it plays out.


----------



## juice

ian said:


> They just think that there are just a ton of things that one should do before closing schools, e.g. universal mask mandates, closing nonessential businesses, etc...


Like happened down here, eh?


----------



## EricEricEric

Lockdowns and forced vaccinations were never really needed and never the solution Sweden is living proof of this fact

Add on the fact that the vaccinations have done little as covid peaked in early January before the vaccine was ever even available

95% of the individuals dying from Covid have pre-existing comorbidities. If you do not have a pre-existing comorbidity your likelihood of recovery is 99%+

We saw a multitude of vaccinated people in Massachusetts test positive, possibly being the majority and that not the only time that happened

Another curious issue is the disappearance of influenza, it looks as though the CDC has admitted that the PCR test does not differentiate between Covid and influenza

It’s also rather concerning to see the push for children to be vaccinated whom are virtually unaffected by the virus

Finally, a lot of lives could’ve been saved through the use of ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine as it’s being used in a lot of Third World countries so successfully











Sweden: Despite Variants, No Lockdowns, No Daily Covid Deaths


"Thus the country the media loved to hate is reaping the best of all worlds: Few current cases and deaths, stronger economic growth than the lockdown countries, and its people never experienced the yoke of tyranny." ~ Michael Fumento




www.aier.org













CDC study shows 74% of people infected in Massachusetts Covid outbreak were fully vaccinated


The CDC data published Friday was based on 469 cases of Covid associated with multiple summer events and large public gatherings in July in Massachusetts.




www.google.com













Hydroxychloroquine is effective, and consistently so when provided early, for COVID-19: a systematic review - PubMed


Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) has shown efficacy against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in some but not all studies. We hypothesized that a systematic review would show HCQ to be effective against COVID-19, more effective when provided earlier, not associated with worsening disease and safe. We...




pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov













Observational Study on 255 Mechanically Ventilated Covid Patients at the Beginning of the USA Pandemic


Introduction This observational study looked at 255 COVID19 patients who required invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) during the first two months of the US pandemic. Through comprehensive, longitudinal evaluation and new consideration of all the data, we were able to better describe and...




www.medrxiv.org













RETRACTED: Hydroxychloroquine in the Treatment of COVID-19: A Multicenter Randomized Controlled Study


The COVID-19 pandemic is showing an exponential growth, mandating an urgent need to develop an effective treatment. Indeed, to date, a well-established therapy is still lacking. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) added to standard care in patients with...




www.ajtmh.org







https://amjmed.org/hydroxychloroquine-for-coronavirus-the-urgent-need-for-a-moratorium-on-prescriptions/











Review of the Emerging Evidence Demonstrating the Efficacy of Ivermectin in the Prophylaxis and Treatment of COVID-19


After COVID-19 emerged on U.S shores, providers began reviewing the emerging basic science, translational, and clinical data to identify potentially effective treatment options. In addition, a multitude of both novel and repurposed therapeutic agents ...




www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


----------



## riba

just some sentences from the studies you mentioned.

_In conclusion, our trial adds extra evidence from Egypt that HCQ may not be beneficial as a treatment for COVID-19.

In conclusion, health care providers should always prioritize compassion with evolving science and safety data. In this context, we recommend a moratorium on the use of chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine, with or without azithromycin, to treat or prevent COVID-19, with the exceptions of obtaining the necessary evidence in randomized trials as well as compassionate use. If these drugs need to be prescribed for patients with COVID-19, baseline evaluations and serial monitoring are an absolute necessity.9 We urge our competent and compassionate health care providers to adhere to the first words of the Hippocratic Oath of “primum non nocere.”_

Also, "Review of the Emerging Evidence Demonstrating the Efficacy of Ivermectin in the Prophylaxis and Treatment of COVID-19" is partially based on a preprint that unfortunately got retracted.

Sorry, i didnt have the time to read everything, just cherry picked some references and only read conclusions.

I am a bit confused


----------



## McMan

EricEricEric said:


> Lockdowns and forced vaccinations were never really needed and never the solution Sweden is living proof of this fact
> 
> Add on the fact that the vaccinations have done little as covid peaked in early January before the vaccine was ever even available
> 
> 95% of the individuals dying from Covid have pre-existing comorbidities. If you do not have a pre-existing comorbidity your likelihood of recovery is 99%+
> 
> We saw a multitude of vaccinated people in Massachusetts test positive, possibly being the majority and that not the only time that happened
> 
> Another curious issue is the disappearance of influenza, it looks as though the CDC has admitted that the PCR test does not differentiate between Covid and influenza
> 
> It’s also rather concerning to see the push for children to be vaccinated whom are virtually unaffected by the virus
> 
> Finally, a lot of lives could’ve been saved through the use of ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine as it’s being used in a lot of Third World countries so successfully
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sweden: Despite Variants, No Lockdowns, No Daily Covid Deaths
> 
> 
> "Thus the country the media loved to hate is reaping the best of all worlds: Few current cases and deaths, stronger economic growth than the lockdown countries, and its people never experienced the yoke of tyranny." ~ Michael Fumento
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aier.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> CDC study shows 74% of people infected in Massachusetts Covid outbreak were fully vaccinated
> 
> 
> The CDC data published Friday was based on 469 cases of Covid associated with multiple summer events and large public gatherings in July in Massachusetts.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.google.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> RETRACTED: Hydroxychloroquine in the Treatment of COVID-19: A Multicenter Randomized Controlled Study
> 
> 
> The COVID-19 pandemic is showing an exponential growth, mandating an urgent need to develop an effective treatment. Indeed, to date, a well-established therapy is still lacking. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) added to standard care in patients with...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ajtmh.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://amjmed.org/hydroxychloroquine-for-coronavirus-the-urgent-need-for-a-moratorium-on-prescriptions/
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Review of the Emerging Evidence Demonstrating the Efficacy of Ivermectin in the Prophylaxis and Treatment of COVID-19
> 
> 
> After COVID-19 emerged on U.S shores, providers began reviewing the emerging basic science, translational, and clinical data to identify potentially effective treatment options. In addition, a multitude of both novel and repurposed therapeutic agents ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov



This is the conclusion to the first study about HCQ: "In our study, adding HCQ to standard care *did not add an extra benefit for the patients*. Hydroxychloroquine arm was similar in all outcomes."

The second HCQ Link is not a study. It is a call for a moratorium on HCQ prescription for covid-treatment, so that HCQ can be more readily available to patients whose treatment regimes actually require it (Lupus, arthritis, etc.). Hence the request for a "moratorium".

The bit about PCR-testing not being able to distinguish between flu and covid is either a misreading--the CDC screenshot making the rounds on FB is about antibody testing to see if a person has had covid already--or misinterpretation. See here:
Fact check: Posts confuse COVID-19 viral test with COVID-19 antibody test








FactCheck: Can a common cold cause a positive Covid-19 test?


A claim that started in the US, which suggests that a case of cold or flu, or a previous vaccine against them, can give a positive Covid-19 test result, has reached Ireland.




www.thejournal.ie


----------



## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> Lockdowns and forced vaccinations were never really needed and never the solution Sweden is living proof of this fact


Is it now? That is most interesting. Especially considering that, in Norway, they have 26,000 cases per million population, and 560 deaths per million population. In Denmark, it is 56,000 and 440. In Sweden, it is 109,000 and 1,720. But, hey, what's three or four times as many dead people among friends?



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/





EricEricEric said:


> Add on the fact that the vaccinations have done little as covid peaked in early January before the vaccine was ever even available


Yes. Without vaccines, a lot more people get sick. Does that come as a surprise? And now that many people in the US have had the vaccine, Covid has become a disease of the unvaccinated. Check the numbers for Texas, or Alabama, or Mississippi. Almost all hospitalisations are for unvaccinated people. Oh yes, the hospital systems in these states are on the brink of collapse.



EricEricEric said:


> It’s also rather concerning to see the push for children to be vaccinated whom are virtually unaffected by the virus


Delta affects children. Not as seriously as adults, but sometimes seriously. The Delta Variant Is Sending More Children to the Hospital. The effects of long Covid on children are largely unknown at this stage.

Children spread the virus as effectively as adults. Why on earth would we possibly want to vaccinate children then? I guess it's OK if they give it to their parents, uncles, grandparents, and anyone else they come into contact with?


----------



## spaceconvoy

Ivermectin has also been debunked recently:









Column: Major study of ivermectin, the anti-vaccine crowd's latest COVID drug, finds 'no effect whatsoever'


Ivermectin, touted as a treatment of COVID by the anti-vaccine crowd, has "no effect," according to a major study.




www.latimes.com





He's not some fringe-thinking crackpot though. I have some relatives who believe the exact same things. These are all pretty standard assumed facts inside a particular media bubble, presented by 'experts' and reinforced on multiple platforms to make it seem like widespread consensus. Maybe scarier than the virus itself.


----------



## Michi

spaceconvoy said:


> Ivermectin has also been debunked recently


Naw, ivermectin works a treat, just like hydroxychloroquine. I saw that on Twitter just the other day…


----------



## Michi

Keith Sinclair said:


> We had some child abuse during lockdown.
> Haven't heard anything in news since opened
> up again parents back to work.
> 
> The school thing is on for now won't know till it plays out.


I expect that, thirty years from now, a very small percentage of people who are children right now will tell the story of "what it was really like during Covid." Their stories will mostly go like "My dad beat the crap out of me all the time. I kept hoping that I'd get Covid so I would die."

Kids tend to blame themselves for what goes wrong around them. That's one reason why child abusers get away with as much as they do. A more enlightened then-forty-year old might more appropriately wish "I should have kept hoping that my dad would get Covid so _he_ would die."


----------



## juice

EricEricEric said:


> We saw a multitude of vaccinated people in Massachusetts test positive, possibly being the majority and that not the only time that happened


Ah, I love the precision with which you prosecute this particular argument. I mean, I'm convinced, this is beautifully constructed and brilliantly referenced.


----------



## JDA_NC

ian said:


> At the college where I work, vaccines are required for students, faculty and staff. Given that, though, they plan to open "as normal", with little further precautions. We'll see if that changes if there's increased delta spread in the area.



It will be an interesting year....

Both Duke & UNC-CH are already reporting COVID-19 clusters and this is before most of the students are on campus!


----------



## chefwp

I'm not sure I agree with this <the quote below>, as even stupid or misguided people deserve compassion, but then again my wife didn't lose a hospital bed like the patient's husband to whom the quote is attributed. I think anyone with an once of empathy can understand his frustration.

"hospitals should require vaccine passports to enter. If the unvaccinated were not admitted, there would be no shortage of health care workers, just an upcoming shortage of morons." -this said by the husband of a cancer patient who lost her hospital bed to an unvaccinated covid patient.


----------



## MarcelNL

the ethics contained within that dilemma is food for a discussion that can go on for months....the problem is that reality makes it a tad more urgent. It likely ends up with a discussion around outcome measures...never a very absolute field unless you look at survival rates.


----------



## spaceconvoy

Not all unvaccinated are anti-vax. Many have multiple jobs and don't have a doctor or insurance. They're likely to believe the vaccine costs money based on their experience with the health care industry. It's not as big a priority for people who are struggling to survive more banal horrors of modern society on a daily basis.

I understand the rage, but it's being misdirected towards the easiest and most visible target. Sort of like blaming immigrants when your job is lost to outsourcing. Most unvaccinated have been failed by the medical system, not the other way around.


----------



## tcmx3

spaceconvoy said:


> Not all unvaccinated are anti-vax. Many have multiple jobs and don't have a doctor or insurance. They're likely to believe the vaccine costs money based on their experience with the health care industry. It's not as big a priority for people who are struggling to survive more banal horrors of modern society on a daily basis.
> 
> I understand the rage, but it's being misdirected towards the easiest and most visible target. Sort of like blaming immigrants when your job is lost to outsourcing. Most unvaccinated have been failed by the medical system, not the other way around.



yeah it's really hard to blame people who are basically saying "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me"

the president, celebrities, talking heads, etc. will not convince people because there is nothing more American than the president, talking heads and celebrities lying to you.


----------



## LostHighway

This is from a not yet peer reviewed preprint so take it as seriously or dismissively as you care to:
Covid 19 vaccine hesitancy
The PhDs are an interesting cohort that don't fit the accepted uneducated yokel narrative.


----------



## EricEricEric

Hydroxychloroquine is effective, and consistently so when provided early, for COVID-19: a systematic review - PubMed


Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) has shown efficacy against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in some but not all studies. We hypothesized that a systematic review would show HCQ to be effective against COVID-19, more effective when provided earlier, not associated with worsening disease and safe. We...




pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov













Observational Study on 255 Mechanically Ventilated Covid Patients at the Beginning of the USA Pandemic


Introduction This observational study looked at 255 COVID19 patients who required invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) during the first two months of the US pandemic. Through comprehensive, longitudinal evaluation and new consideration of all the data, we were able to better describe and...




www.medrxiv.org






Very sad it looks like they went back and amended that study due to outward pressures. However, we can see there’s a multitude of other studies affirming the original outcome from the American Journal of medicine study

If you would like I could keep pulling up more studies

Also we’ve seen ivermectin successfully used and most recently in India to overcome the “delta variant”. Disturbingly there’s some strange media blackout over the success of its use…





riba said:


> just some sentences from the studies you mentioned.
> 
> _In conclusion, our trial adds extra evidence from Egypt that HCQ may not be beneficial as a treatment for COVID-19.
> 
> In conclusion, health care providers should always prioritize compassion with evolving science and safety data. In this context, we recommend a moratorium on the use of chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine, with or without azithromycin, to treat or prevent COVID-19, with the exceptions of obtaining the necessary evidence in randomized trials as well as compassionate use. If these drugs need to be prescribed for patients with COVID-19, baseline evaluations and serial monitoring are an absolute necessity.9 We urge our competent and compassionate health care providers to adhere to the first words of the Hippocratic Oath of “primum non nocere.”_
> 
> Also, "Review of the Emerging Evidence Demonstrating the Efficacy of Ivermectin in the Prophylaxis and Treatment of COVID-19" is partially based on a preprint that unfortunately got retracted.
> 
> Sorry, i didnt have the time to read everything, just cherry picked some references and only read conclusions.
> 
> I am a bit confused


----------



## EricEricEric

Also, we see Ivermectin being successfully used most recently for the variants

It’s rather disturbing that influenza has some how virtually disappeared as well. The cycle threshold is most likely the reason









Coronavirus Cases Plummet When PCR Tests Are Adjusted


When PCR tests are adjusted, the number of coronavirus cases drop dramatically.




thevaccinereaction.org













WHO (finally) admits PCR tests create false positives


Warnings concerning high CT value of tests are months too late…so why are they appearing now? The potential explanation is shockingly cynical.




off-guardian.org













Observational Study on 255 Mechanically Ventilated Covid Patients at the Beginning of the USA Pandemic


Introduction This observational study looked at 255 COVID19 patients who required invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) during the first two months of the US pandemic. Through comprehensive, longitudinal evaluation and new consideration of all the data, we were able to better describe and...




www.medrxiv.org













Hydroxychloroquine is effective, and consistently so when provided early, for COVID-19: a systematic review - PubMed


Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) has shown efficacy against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in some but not all studies. We hypothesized that a systematic review would show HCQ to be effective against COVID-19, more effective when provided earlier, not associated with worsening disease and safe. We...




pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov










McMan said:


> This is the conclusion to the first study about HCQ: "In our study, adding HCQ to standard care *did not add an extra benefit for the patients*. Hydroxychloroquine arm was similar in all outcomes."
> 
> The second HCQ Link is not a study. It is a call for a moratorium on HCQ prescription for covid-treatment, so that HCQ can be more readily available to patients whose treatment regimes actually require it (Lupus, arthritis, etc.). Hence the request for a "moratorium".
> 
> The bit about PCR-testing not being able to distinguish between flu and covid is either a misreading--the CDC screenshot making the rounds on FB is about antibody testing to see if a person has had covid already--or misinterpretation. See here:
> Fact check: Posts confuse COVID-19 viral test with COVID-19 antibody test
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FactCheck: Can a common cold cause a positive Covid-19 test?
> 
> 
> A claim that started in the US, which suggests that a case of cold or flu, or a previous vaccine against them, can give a positive Covid-19 test result, has reached Ireland.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thejournal.ie


----------



## Bill13

juice said:


> Or Florida, where Governor DeathSentence is on one hand banning mask mandates (e.g. in schools), and on the other pleading for federal help regards ventilators and so on. And any number of halfwits don't think these things are in any way related.


Florida is currently 24th in deaths per million so to be accurate the governors of the states with the top death rates should be called the death sentence governors. The two worst performing states are NJ and NY. Which is weird because one of those governors wrote a book about how well he handled the crisis. Of course hiding the number of nursing home deaths made him look better. Cuomo Aides Repeatedly Stalled Release of Nursing Home Death Toll - The New York Times (nytimes.com)


----------



## tcmx3

EricEricEric said:


> Very sad it looks like they went back and amended that study due to outward pressures. However, we can see there’s a multitude of other studies affirming the original outcome from the American Journal of medicine study



literally anything to avoid even momentarily considering the possibility you're wrong

(btw youre wrong)


----------



## applepieforbreakfast

This thread is a great spot to find people to add to my ignore list.


----------



## juice

EricEricEric said:


> Very sad it looks like they went back and amended that study due to outward pressures.


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA


----------



## gregfisk

Where do people come up with this nonsense? If any of these studies had any credibility don’t you think the various world wide health organizations would be following these guidelines? Funny how not a single country is following any of these nor are they promoting them. Hummm, I wonder why???


----------



## gregfisk

chefwp said:


> View attachment 138000


This is exactly how I’ve been feeling for the last year and a half. I almost can’t believe it... almost.


----------



## EricEricEric

Many countries are indeed using hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin as they did not want to wait for a vaccine, couldn’t afford a vaccine, and did not have enough vaccines to supply everyone 

They seem to work best when used as a preventative or immediately as symptoms appear

Vaccines have been performing rather poorly as we see new strains emerging. Just like with the influenza vaccines, different versions of the vaccine must be used depending on the strain

Which brings up another point, even influenza vaccines don’t perform well

“While vaccine effectiveness (VE) can vary, recent studies show that flu vaccination reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population during seasons when most circulating flu viruses are well-matched to the flu vaccine.”


*“Dr. Fauci Contradicts Himself*
It is also interesting that one of the covid celebrities, Dr Anthony Fauci, clearly did not endorse hydroxychloroquine since early in the covid “pandemic”. Yet, he was the head of the NIH, when they published this study in 2005 regarding chloroquine’s effects on coronavirus SARS-CoV, the recent cousin of the covid-19 virus SARS-CoV2.

The other issue with the vaccine is you can still spread the virus, and sometimes have higher amounts of the virus making you more contagious, possibly letting the door to creating more new and possibly more dangerous strains

We need something stronger and performs that better and stops the level of virus from ever reaching higher levels in the first place so that we won’t have variants

It’s time to explore other avenues

Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS coronavirus infection and spread - PubMed






Vaccine Effectiveness: How Well Do Flu Vaccines Work? | CDC


Influenza vaccine effectiveness questions and answers - CDC




www.cdc.gov





Another interesting graph


gregfisk said:


> Where do people come up with this nonsense? If any of these studies had any credibility don’t you think the various world wide health organizations would be following these guidelines? Funny how not a single country is following any of these nor are they promoting them. Hummm, I wonder why???


----------



## ian

EricEricEric said:


> Vaccines have been performing rather poorly as we see new strains emerging.



So, what does performing rather poorly mean to you? That there are some breakthrough cases? Does it not make sense to you that if you are vaccinated you are many many many times less likely to end up in the hospital? Do you debate this? Or do you not care about that? I’m just trying to understand what your perspective is here.


----------



## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> Very sad it looks like they went back and amended that study due to outward pressures. However, we can see there’s a multitude of other studies affirming the original outcome from the American Journal of medicine study


Yeah, Prodromos and Rumschlag have been peddling their meta-study on various sites, basically wherever someone is willing to publish it. They cherry picked the data to arrive at the outcome they desired.

The overwhelming consensus in the medical community is that HCQ does absolutely nothing when it comes to Covid. Peddling low-quality studies by authors who do not even have a background in epidemiology or infectious diseases will not change that. And, fortunately, the scientific process requires consensus, and one dissenting view does not constitute consensus.

Do you really think that, if HCQ worked, doctors would ignore it? Why? Some giant global conspiracy? In the face of Covid patients overwhelming the hospital system and over 600,000 fatalities in the US alone? Give me a break… If it really worked, we'd be using it. It's as simple as that.


----------



## tcmx3

Michi said:


> Right. Given current trends, I have no doubt that Florida will climb in the rankings quite rapidly.
> 
> 
> Last time I looked, neither of those governors tried to actively suppress mask wearing.
> 
> Has it occurred to you that infection and death rates, just maybe, might be related to population density and climate? And that this might at least in part relate to the worse outbreaks in NJ and NY? I'm guessing that this did not occur to you.



well but the guy in NY was already about to be impeached for covering up the death toll in nursing homes so I think that's a fair charge against him.

but yeah maybe we shouldn't forget Florida sent the swat team to arrest someone who refused to monkey with the numbers in Florida so my guess is that something similar probably happened there.

and more generally, let us not forget these are real people. these are our parents, our grandparents, aunts and uncles dying. trying to score gotcha points because some state you dont like has slightly worse numbers... I mean the important thing is to hold responsible everyone who needs to be held responsible.

and Michi to be clear you arent the one that comment is aimed at.


----------



## M1k3

I know I'd rather feel 40-60% less sick when I get sick, instead of feeling 100% sick.


----------



## Matus

@EricEricEric - you are posting more and more straight disinformation. If that’s your thing, please take it to some Facebook group of choice, or ask yourself a question what are you trying to achieve and why.

Edit: thanks to everyone who tries to dig out factual information available on the topic and try to disentangle their own opinions from available facts.


----------



## Bill13

tcmx3 said:


> well but the guy in NY was already about to be impeached for covering up the death toll in nursing homes so I think that's a fair charge against him.
> 
> but yeah maybe we shouldn't forget Florida sent the swat team to arrest someone who refused to monkey with the numbers in Florida so my guess is that something similar probably happened there.
> 
> and more generally, let us not forget these are real people. these are our parents, our grandparents, aunts and uncles dying. trying to score gotcha points because some state you dont like has slightly worse numbers... I mean the important thing is to hold responsible everyone who needs to be held responsible.
> 
> and Michi to be clear you arent the one that comment is aimed at.



A nice article to clear up the misconception people have about Fl hiding data: How Rebekah Jones peddled lies about Florida COVID-19 deaths (nypost.com)


----------



## KJDedge

I have one thought on this topic.....I think it’s really difficult to gauge exactly how this virus spreads and mutates...for example, going into the Covid pandemic, Sweden’s decision to basically do nothing, everyone was predicting a total debacle especially given their high urban density....I don’t understand how their outcome was so similar to so many other European lockdown countries ( non Nordic)....
logic would have said Sweden numbers would be absolutely and relatively worse than ANY lockdown country....
in addition they were 23 lowest out of 30 countries for excess deaths...( also arguing the case that if you aren’t dealing with collateral disease and deaths , you arent really dealing with covid)..
I think we have much to analyze and learn from this for decades to come...


----------



## MarcelNL

Agree, there are too many factors at play to be able to make any comparison other than that Covid has been diagnosed in Sweden as well as in all other countries, BUT; IMO the numbers will be quite similar regardless of all measures taken (bar vaccination) as all the measures such as lockdown or social distancing and or face masks do is slow down the spreading of the disease. it's not a question of IF you get it, but WHEN.


----------



## tcmx3

Bill13 said:


> A nice article to clear up the misconception people have about Fl hiding data: How Rebekah Jones peddled lies about Florida COVID-19 deaths (nypost.com)



tell you what if you can find me an equivalent story from a real source instead of a tabloid, Im happy to take a look.

but if your argument is basically "Rebekah Jones is not an angel" then idc. What is undeniable fact is that they sent a police team to here house who entered with guns drawn, when they could have just subpoenaed her.

that whole article is literally zero percent actual reporting on the substance of her claims (which as it happens Im aware of the flaws of) and mostly just saying "she's such a bad person" and hand waving about her claims with references to vague sources.

in the end, it's disappointing to me that anyone, you included, would read that and come to the conclusion that flaws in her character should cause you to simply ignore reality. "offices didnt point guns at her" I mean what the **** do you expect me to believe NYPost or the literal unedited video of the officers walking into her house with their guns drawn? come on.


----------



## tcmx3

here we can see some actual reporting from Miami which paints a far different picture:


https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article251838913.html



wow what a shock that a notoriously political tabloid would frame things completely out of line with reality. shocked I tell you! 

turns out that the reality is pretty complex and like most things, more banal than expected. Jones is not a perfect person by any stretch, but there was lots of "enhanced supervision" from the governor's office. I invite folks to read this take and the NYPost article, then click on the front page of each so you can see which each is about. or maybe youre the sort of person who likes to get their "news" interspersed with pictures of celebrities in their swimwear?


----------



## gregfisk

Bill13 said:


> A nice article to clear up the misconception people have about Fl hiding data: How Rebekah Jones peddled lies about Florida COVID-19 deaths (nypost.com)


You can’t believe anything that you read in the nypost. It’s a right wing propaganda paper. If they write it you can be guaranteed that it’s a spin piece with little substance.


----------



## daveb

gregfisk said:


> You can’t believe anything that you read in the nypost. It’s a right wing propaganda paper. If they write it you can be guaranteed that it’s a spin piece with little substance.



Above can be said for most if not all US based "news" outlets and their orientation. They're all more interested in making up news that fits their respective agendas than reporting actual news. It's National Enquirer for me they're only agenda is selling more rags.


----------



## gregfisk

daveb said:


> Above can be said for most if not all US based "news" outlets and their orientation. They're all more interested in making up news that fits their respective agendas than reporting actual news. It's National Enquirer for me they're only agenda is selling more rags.


I realize that all news sources have bias depending on the audience that they are trying to cater to. But most news sources at least try to tell the truth and stick to some form of reality. I’m hoping you’re kidding about reading the National Enquirer. The sad thing about that rag is many people actually believe what’s written in it.


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> Above can be said for most if not all US based "news" outlets and their orientation. They're all more interested in making up news that fits their respective agendas than reporting actual news. It's National Enquirer for me they're only agenda is selling more rags.



I mean there's bias all over the place from story selection to editorial choices to how you word things.

but I do not think the Miami Herald and the NYPost are even close in terms of how divorced from reality they are.

local city papers are still pretty good, a bit too focused on the crime scene but that's human nature.


----------



## daveb

gregfisk said:


> I realize that all news sources have bias depending on the audience that they are trying to cater to. But most news sources at least try to tell the truth and stick to some form of reality. I’m hoping you’re kidding about reading the National Enquirer. The sad thing about that rag is many people actually believe what’s written in it.



So those that preach to your choir are not biased but the other side is?


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> So those that preach to your choir are not biased but the other side is?
> 
> View attachment 138114



he literally said the opposite of that Dave...


----------



## ian

It’s not about the bias of the journalists, either, it’s about responsibility to fact and how much you let your bias inform your writing.


----------



## applepieforbreakfast

I don't know, man. It's a real tough choice. When one side is biased towards science and caution, and the other side talks about using a dewormer to treat a virus and how masks infringe their rights...

Maybe I'm biased though. Two friends of mine lost a parent, another lost his favorite aunt. 

My girlfriend's sister is currently infected, so we're kinda in limbo and waiting to see how that turns out. And the sister's husband just started showing symptoms too. They've got a daughter about to turn 18 and starting college in two weeks that they won't let get vaccinated because "ThEy DoN't KnOw ThE lOnGtErM eFfEcTs Of ThE vAcCiNe."

But that's just my opinion.


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## EricEricEric

Here are more studies and information that I’ve gathered, it seems the timing of administration is crucial and the other substances increase effectiveness as well


It’s important to know all of your options as people who have multiple vaccinations are being infected with the variants. Just like influenza or rhinovirus etc it will continue to mutate making the original vaccine less and less effect as has already been demonstrated 

The other thing to keep in mind is that the high majority of people never express any symptoms when infected as well as those who are vaccinated with larger quantities of the virus thus at a greater risk to spread the virus 










Treatment with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and combination in patients hospitalized with COVID-19


As of May 27, 2020, there were over 1,678,843 confirmed cases of COVID-19 claiming more than 100,000 lives in the Unites States (CDC, 2020). Currently there is no known effective therapy or vaccine. The urgent need for therapeutic agents has resulted in repurposing and redeployment of...



www.ijidonline.com










3.0 HCQ Lit-PD-HGS77X2-DC79







docs.google.com













COVID-19 Outpatients – Early Risk-Stratified Treatment with Zinc Plus Low Dose Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin: A Retrospective Case Series Study


Objective: To describe outcomes of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the outpatient setting after early treatment with zinc, low dose hydroxychloroquine, and azithromycin (the triple therapy) dependent on risk stratification. Design: Retrospective case series study. Setting...




www.preprints.org










HCQ - Early Treatment and Prevention of COVID







docs.google.com













Early Outpatient Treatment of Symptomatic, High-Risk COVID-19 Patients That Should Be Ramped Up Immediately as Key to the Pandemic Crisis


Abstract. More than 1.6 million Americans have been infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and more than 10 times that numb




academic.oup.com


----------



## MarcelNL

@EricEricEric you're citing articles well over a year old, and most of it are retrospective analysis...do you really think that the vast majority of treating physicians would ignore this 'data' if there was anything to it? I honestly do not know what you smoke, but pass it on.

Did you also read the criticism on this paper and the discussion following this shining example of cherry picking data?









RE: “EARLY OUTPATIENT TREATMENT OF SYMPTOMATIC, HIGH-RISK COVID-19 PATIENTS THAT SHOULD BE RAMPED UP IMMEDIATELY AS KEY TO THE PANDEMIC CRISIS”


In his recently accepted manuscript on treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Dr. Harvey Risch criticizes the National Institutes of Health and the F




academic.oup.com


----------



## EricEricEric

Here’s another if you like. There are many nations using this protocol with great success as well as off label use by physicians in the USA

If you’re serious about a real long term solution then you know we need other options as the vaccine continues to lose effectiveness as new variants continue to emerge 










Treatment with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and combination in patients hospitalized with COVID-19


As of May 27, 2020, there were over 1,678,843 confirmed cases of COVID-19 claiming more than 100,000 lives in the Unites States (CDC, 2020). Currently there is no known effective therapy or vaccine. The urgent need for therapeutic agents has resulted in repurposing and redeployment of...



www.ijidonline.com





“ Conclusions and relevance

In this multi-hospital assessment, when controlling for COVID-19 risk factors, treatment with hydroxychloroquine alone and in combination with azithromycin was associated with reduction in COVID-19 associated mortality. Prospective trials are needed to examine this impact.”





MarcelNL said:


> @EricEricEric you're citing articles well over a year old, and most of it are retrospective analysis...do you really think that the vast majority of treating physicians would ignore this 'data' if there was anything to it? I honestly do not know what you smoke, but pass it on.
> 
> Did you also read the criticism on this paper and the discussion following this shining example of cherry picking data?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> RE: “EARLY OUTPATIENT TREATMENT OF SYMPTOMATIC, HIGH-RISK COVID-19 PATIENTS THAT SHOULD BE RAMPED UP IMMEDIATELY AS KEY TO THE PANDEMIC CRISIS”
> 
> 
> In his recently accepted manuscript on treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Dr. Harvey Risch criticizes the National Institutes of Health and the F
> 
> 
> 
> 
> academic.oup.com


----------



## riba

DEFINE_ME came to a hypothesis based on a retrospective study (which makes sense given the date). Then:

"Prospective trials are needed to examine this impact."

What do you think has happened in the meanwhile?


----------



## MarcelNL

@EricEricEric Really, try read an article or two on efficacy of vaccines but please do start with an article on trial methodology as this too is a retrospective analysis NOT a well controlled study with a predefined hypothesis and suitable power calculation.


You have the honor of being the first I click the ignore button for.


----------



## JDA_NC

daveb said:


> Above can be said for most if not all US based "news" outlets and their orientation. They're all more interested in making up news that fits their respective agendas than reporting actual news. It's National Enquirer for me they're only agenda is selling more rags.





ian said:


> It’s not about the bias of the journalists, either, it’s about responsibility to fact and how much you let your bias inform your writing.



This is the real issue nowadays, isn't it? What do words like "fact," "objective," and "truth" mean or even look like in the 21st century?

Here are some "facts" to me:

The NY Post is a daily tabloid owned by Rupert Murdoch's News Corp.

The "article" linked here was an Op-Ed originally published in the National Review.

The National Review (magazine) was originally started by William F. Buckley Jr. in the 1950s and is recognized as a standard for "conservative thought" in the United States of America. 

I don't have any interest in Rebekah Jones or in Florida as a whole, so I can't be bothered to read the actual article. Respect to anyone who slogged through all that. I just think it's interesting how we seem to be unable to resolve the issues of journalistic integrity or of "news" being unbiased anymore. Everything has an agenda. We are all being sold something. We are aware of this so we don't trust anything except for information that conforms to what we *want* to believe.

We have a whole lot more of this type of crazy in our future:


----------



## LostHighway

I think news media has always had biases, perhaps they are just more readily identifiable these days. The N.Y. Times and the Washington Post are both but a pale shadow of what they once were but even at the height of their competence and influence it took independents like I. F. Stone to keep them even semi-honest. I still read the Guardian but it too carries obvious biases. The Murdoch owned media hardly requires a mention. A close friend of mine who recently retired from a long career as a reporter, editor, and later publisher of daily newspapers simply laughs when the press insists that there is an inviolate firewall between advertising or ownership and reporting. Journalistic, and for that matter judicial, objectivity is a myth that only people in the field or the gormless still believe. The antidote is to read widely, do as much original sourcing as you can, and not to get stuck in an ideological bubble. For the most part people here have been relatively good about citing the actual research.
Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding's Twitter feed is one of many sources I've been following for Covid news.


----------



## JDA_NC

LostHighway said:


> I think news media has always had biases, perhaps they are just more readily identifiable these days. The N.Y. Times and the Washington Post are both but a pale shadow of what they once were but even at the height of their competence and influence it took independents like I. F. Stone to keep them even semi-honest. I still read the Guardian but it too carries obvious biases. The Murdoch owned media hardly requires a mention. A close friend of mine who recently retired from a long career as a reporter, editor, and later publisher of daily newspapers simply laughs when the press insists that there is an inviolate firewall between advertising or ownership and reporting. Journalistic, and for that matter judicial, objectivity is a myth that only people in the field or the gormless still believe. The antidote is to read widely, do as much original sourcing as you can, and not to get stuck in an ideological bubble. For the most part people here have been relatively good about citing the actual research.
> Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding's Twitter feed is one of many sources I've been following for Covid news.



While I agree with you that there has always been bias in the media, that's not really what I see as being the issue.

It's more that, as a society, we have lost trust (or faith) in many - if not all - of our institutions. And often for good reasons!

We don't trust our health care system or our medical professionals. We don't trust our elected officials or our government. We don't trust our educational system(s). We don't trust environmental scientists (or, sometimes, science itself). We don't trust our media sources. We don't trust *others *to help us out in times of need.

Your friend is lucky to be retiring nowadays because that career they had practically no longer exists. And the move from print media to digital has led to a large loss in oversight and an increase in editorialization. As much as I wish that the overload of available information that our new digital society presents us with would result in a more open-minded, informed, and intelligent populace, it just doesn't seem to be the case.

Reading widely, doing original sourcing, and not getting stuck in ideological bubbles certainly seems a lot easier said than done. How else do we explain the widespread anti-vax sentiments, violent political divisions, deranged conspiracy theories, and the complete loss of faith in our election processes by many in this country?


----------



## spaceconvoy

Inexpensive anti-depressant could be best COVID treatment yet, Canadian-led trial finds


'This is among the most important findings since the COVID pandemic began'




nationalpost.com





The funny thing is that there _is_ a drug that works roughly how HCQ is portrayed (a pill that can be taken at home without cold storage and shows a modest but significant decrease in severe cases) but it's being ignored in certain media bubbles. While we're finally seeing bigger studies now, the effect was discovered last year and first printed in JAMA in November 2020. But if you google "foxnews fluvoxamine" there is absolutely nothing on it, just dead silence.

So why has the HCQ crowd not shown the same interest in Fluvoxamine? My cynicism tells me that it's due to well-positioned people with stakes in Sanofi (but I'm willing to admit this is a conspiracy theory). I won't be surprised if we see less vocal support of Fluvoxamine even if it's eventually adopted by medical communities in developing countries. I hope I'm wrong and that people just haven't caught up yet, because the depressing alternative is that a large group of people are being duped by a cabal of snake oil salesmen.


----------



## CA_cook

ADE is a theoretical concern for any vaccine. There is enough real world data on COVID vaccines to conclude that ADE has absolutely no impact on those. Ffter hundreds of million doses administered there are remarkably few serious side effects reported. If you are worried about COVID vaccine safety at this point, you are living in a fantasy world of social media scaremongering. Here in the US there has been 600,000+ examples of why COVID vaccines are a remarkable public health achievement. This train has left the station. Vaccinations are safe and effective and remain our best and only long-term tool to fight the COVID pandemic (can keep a lockdown forever). 
Vaccination is voluntary and will remain so. So if you dont want to take the vaccine, don’t take it. But (a) COVID is not fun even if you survive it; your probability of not surviving it is not very high, but if you do die, you won’t get a do-over. Long COVID is not fun either; (b) Be prepaed to face significant hurdles in daily life (entering restaurants, concerts etc) and at your workplace (frequent testing, mandatory masking or outright ban on coming to on-site). Why? Because society has a right to protect its members from the consequences of people’s bad decisions.


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## Bill13

Not a pleasant graph when you realize they have a vaccination rate of over 80% and their death rate is higher than during the first and second waves when there was no vaccination program.


----------



## ian

Bill13 said:


> View attachment 138226
> 
> 
> Not a pleasant graph when you realize they have a vaccination rate of over 80% and their death rate is higher than during the first and second waves when there was no vaccination program.



Where are you getting your data on death rates? My quick google search of israel covid death seems to indicate the death rate is lower now than before. (If you look at the charts that pop up, the current upswing of new cases is sharper in comparison to the old data than the upswing in in the deaths chart. Maybe I’m misreading.) Also, serious illnesses in Israel are significantly more common among the unvaccinated.

You’re so right that delta is concerning though. And depressing.


----------



## MarcelNL

High vaccination rate? Israel? I see them below 60%, in the land of the blind one Eye is king, but 60% is not a high vax rate IMO. (pretty much the same as the Netherlands)









Israel - COVID-19 Overview - Johns Hopkins


Israel - COVID New Cases, Deaths, Testing Data - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center




coronavirus.jhu.edu


----------



## M1k3

So much...


----------



## LostHighway

MarcelNL said:


> High vaccination rate? Israel? I see them below 60%, in the land of the blind one Eye is king, but 60% is not a high vax rate IMO. (pretty much the same as the Netherlands)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Israel - COVID-19 Overview - Johns Hopkins
> 
> 
> Israel - COVID New Cases, Deaths, Testing Data - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
> 
> 
> 
> 
> coronavirus.jhu.edu



Israel has been used as something of a data benchmark because they got a widely accessible vaccination program (mostly the Pfizer vaccine) off the ground early and have had a relatively robust testing and reporting program in place. They were for a time the most highly vaccinated country but as in the USA their program bogged down for a period. I think they are currently in somewhere around 10th or 11th place globally. Like the USA fear has driven up their vaccination rates recently. There is some evidence suggesting that the vaccines may be more vulnerable to breakthrough cases than has been officially reported at this point. Unless they have restarted the program the US CDC stopped tracking breakthrough cases in May.
On the mask front there is a huge difference in effectiveness among different types of masks. In the US I see the bare minimum, e.g. a bandana, quite often and rarely see N95 masks or better. I don't know what the situation is in Israel. There are a number of better designed* and tested mask designs available these days, although some are not inexpensive. Vaccinated or not I think treating Delta casually is a mistake.
*mostly with regard to the integrity of the facial seal and comfort


----------



## juice

LostHighway said:


> Vaccinated or not I think treating Delta casually is a mistake.


THIS


----------



## Keith Sinclair

I'm for mask indoors public area's, outdoors as long as not large unrelated groups mask optional your choice. Shutting non essential business down no way. 

One of favorite places Koolau Farmers garden 
supply almost went under closed all of lockdown. Now open I wear a mask going in
the 2 employees & owner all wear mask, it's understood. Who is to say what is essential anyway.


----------



## Bill13

ian said:


> Where are you getting your data on death rates? My quick google search of israel covid death seems to indicate the death rate is lower now than before. (If you look at the charts that pop up, the current upswing of new cases is sharper in comparison to the old data than the upswing in in the deaths chart. Maybe I’m misreading.) Also, serious illnesses in Israel are significantly more common among the unvaccinated.
> 
> You’re so right that delta is concerning though. And depressing.
> 
> View attachment 138241
> View attachment 138242


If you look at the bottom it tells you John Hopkins.


----------



## ian

Bill13 said:


> If you look at the bottom it tells you John Hopkins.



Thanks, but there’s nothing in that chart about death rates, which is why I asked.


----------



## Bill13

MarcelNL said:


> High vaccination rate? Israel? I see them below 60%, in the land of the blind one Eye is king, but 60% is not a high vax rate IMO. (pretty much the same as the Netherlands)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Israel - COVID-19 Overview - Johns Hopkins
> 
> 
> Israel - COVID New Cases, Deaths, Testing Data - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
> 
> 
> 
> 
> coronavirus.jhu.edu



I did think they were higher but they are at 62.5 fully and 67.5 partially are still near the top. Their problem seems to be the protection is fading and since they got a big head they are really struggling now.


----------



## LostHighway

ian said:


> Thanks, but there’s nothing in that chart about death rates, which is why I asked.



I don't have immediate access to the information you're seeking but here are two sites that I think are reliable aggregating and graphing data:
91-DIVOC : Flip the script on COVID-19 | 91-DIVOC
Home - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
Apologies if you're already familiar with these


----------



## Michi

Bill13 said:


> View attachment 138265


That graph is misleading, at least for Australia. The actual percentage of adults > 16 years with one dose is about 48%, the number of adults with two doses is a little over 26%. I guess that adds up to 60% more or less if one just counts the number of administered doses. But that aggregate value says little about the overall level of immunisation until it gets quite close to 200%.









COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia | covid19data.com.au


Data tracking of COVID-19 vaccines in Australia including doses and populations with state and territory breakdowns. Embeddable visualisations.




www.covid19data.com.au


----------



## gregfisk

tcmx3 said:


> he literally said the opposite of that Dave...


Thank you


----------



## MarcelNL

Not being argumentative about a few % extra, the data showing at the Johns Hopkins website to me says Israel is not doing much (or any) better than many countries AND their death rate is not even close to what it was prior to vaccinations being completed for more than a few % of population. The page I referred to shows the vacc rate at 59%,, deaths at 241 last month where that number at the all time high was over 1400. I referred to that page in response to Bill13.

Recent numbers tell us that of those folks fully vaccinated only a very low percentage is at risk of getting admitted to ICU with Covid and an even smaller percentage is at risk of dying of Covid, we see the same thing in the Netherlands....infection numbers going up, hospital admissions to some extent too (but way lower than before) ICU admissions are very low and Covid deaths too. Protection fading? How? you can still get Covid after being fully vaccinated but the severity of the disease is seriously lower once vaccinated.


----------



## Michi

It definitely is a disease of the unvaccinated now. While vaccinated people can catch and spread the virus, the illness is typically mild enough to not require hospitalisation. It is similar for fatalities. Of the people who died from Covid here in the current wave, virtually all of them were unvaccinated; I believe there were two or three deaths of fully vaccinated people. But these people had either some other medical problem or were extremely old (in their nineties, from memory).

The situation is similar in the US: Delta Variant: What We Know About the Science

And this: Nearly all COVID deaths in US are now among unvaccinated

A good article on why herd immunity is likely unachievable.

And, sadly, One in four COVID cases in NSW outbreak has been a child under 19.

Australia has finally approved Pfizer from age 12 onwards. Was about bloody time, too. At least here, the disease is spread mainly by younger people, from children to about mid-thirties in age. Not a surprise, really. These are the people who tend to naturally be more socially active, and they also tend to be the people with fewer savings, meaning that they are more likely to go to work despite "not feeling quite well."


----------



## Keith Sinclair

The people in US & Hawaii that died many had or have serious medical conditions. even at middle age obesity, strain on heart, kidneys, type 2 diabetes. When you throw in these virus the system not strong enough causes shutdown. 

The US is highest in industrialized countries in obesity 37% Unfortunately Hawaiians and other pacific island cultures have highest obesity rates.

So saying other variables at work when variant
virus hits unvaccinated people & unwell vaccinated. Pretty much all the vaccinated that got sick enough to go to hospital have other medical conditions.


----------



## gregfisk

I was sorry to read but not all that surprised that we are now being told in the US that we’re all going to need the booster shot after 8 months of the second shot. I have been reading for awhile now about people with underlying conditions probably needing a booster after maybe 6 months and that makes sense to me for people with compromised immune systems. People like my stepmother who is being treated for cancer. But to hear that the CDC is recommending a booster shot to pretty much everyone after 8 months of the second dose is down right depressing. I can’t help but think if everyone would have been on board at the beginning of all this the outcome might have been different. That’s probably just optimistic thinking on my part though. Even I, who is all for wearing masks, getting vaccinated and looking out for my fellow man is getting sick of this ugly mess we’re all being forced to endure. Is this ever going to end?


----------



## spaceconvoy

Spacing Pfizer COVID shots boosts antibody levels in long-term study


A longer gap between doses of Pfizer's (PFE.N) COVID-19 vaccine leads to higher overall antibody levels than a shorter gap, a British study found on Friday, but antibody levels are not sustained for long after the first dose.




www.reuters.com





It's unlikely we'll continue to need booster shots forever, just that the three-week dosing regimen was flawed from the start.


----------



## ian

spaceconvoy said:


> Spacing Pfizer COVID shots boosts antibody levels in long-term study
> 
> 
> A longer gap between doses of Pfizer's (PFE.N) COVID-19 vaccine leads to higher overall antibody levels than a shorter gap, a British study found on Friday, but antibody levels are not sustained for long after the first dose.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It's unlikely we'll continue to need booster shots forever, just that the three-week dosing regimen was flawed from the start.



Oh, that’s interesting. I don’t think my takeaway is that we won’t need boster shots forever, but it’s interesting that extending the interval can lead to greater protection.


----------



## tcmx3

governor of Texas tested positive today.

of course he's vaccinated and not dying.

wish that was enough to convince the skeptics since most are on the same team as him.


----------



## MarcelNL

tweaking of the vaccine and/or dosing regimen is likely to continue as more data are gathered and new studies started. It's not as if we do not know 'the enemy' at all, the blindfold is off and our scientist are (hard) at work.


----------



## spaceconvoy

ian said:


> Oh, that’s interesting. I don’t think my takeaway is that we won’t need boster shots forever, but it’s interesting that extending the interval can lead to greater protection.


Well, not booster shots of _this_ vaccine at least...


----------



## daveb

Is that curve flattened yet?

Longest month of my life - except when I was married.....


----------



## MarcelNL

daveb said:


> Is that curve flattened yet?
> 
> Longest month of my life - except when I was married.....


depends on what numbers you are looking at, infection rate curve is not flat in most countries, the death rate curve and ICU admission curves have been stomped down quite a bit due to increasing vaccination rates. 

there is a cure for marriage, though the vaccine is not for free (don't ask how I know)


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Rates of infections going up pretty much all Delta variety. Even young people in 20's need oxygen. All unvaccinated. Other islands don't have facilities shipped to Oahu reaching saturation point at hospitals, workers long hours.

Governor wants to tighten regulations.


----------



## LostHighway

Epidemiology statistics quickly get into deep water since there is almost always a very long list of variables in play. Here is an article on vaccine effectiveness with respect to severe covid in Israel that attempts to address some of these issues in this particular case. My two semesters of stats long ago doesn't really equip me to properly evaluate the article but I do think we all need to be careful about drawing hard conclusions from rough data sets.


----------



## tcmx3

terribly sad news today that legendary chess grandmaster Evgeny Sveshnikov passed away due to complications from COVID.

let us not forget in these numbers the human cost. that these deaths, long covid sufferers, etc. are real people.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

LostHighway said:


> Epidemiology statistics quickly get into deep water since there is almost always a very long list of variables in play. Here is an article on vaccine effectiveness with respect to severe covid in Israel that attempts to address some of these issues in this particular case. My two semesters of stats long ago doesn't really equip me to properly evaluate the article but I do think we all need to be careful about drawing hard conclusions from rough data sets.



We had over 600 cases yesterday Doctors believe the infected count is much higher including those with vaccine with mild symptoms.


----------



## Lars

LostHighway said:


> There was an (excellent) album in 1959 by Ornette Coleman's quartet called "The Shape of Jazz to Come"


Thanks for mentioning this. I bought it on your recommendation and it arrived today - I'm half way through the album and enjoying it very much!


----------



## EricEricEric

I live in Oahu and work at a major hospital here. I’m not sure where you’re receiving all of your information from but may want to double check your source. 

Young people are fine and the stats back that up. The majority of people that are infected are rarely negatively impacted by the virus as they are asymptomatic.

The people that are actually at risk for the virus are those with comorbidities, around 95% that die have comorbidities. The vaccine is proving to be significantly less effective against the variants, which only makes sense and that trend will continue to increase as time goes on

I’ve had multiple colleagues at my hospital become ill and diagnosed with the Delta variant and almost everyone is vaccinated now. It was bad enough that they were physically unable to work. We haven’t had anyone that’s unvaccinated get sick not even when the original virus peaked

A lot of people seem to have difficulty understanding why the virus is not affecting children. They also have difficulty not understanding why the overwhelming majority of people are asymptomatic when diagnosed with the virus and never experience any symptoms.

We are understaffed because they fired many people or did not renew their contracts during the last Covid peek (when no one was vaccinated) because we didn’t have enough patients and the ER was a ghost town. Our hospital was hemorrhaging money because we had almost zero patients last year when the virus peaked. 

In fact all the hospitals I have worked at experienced the same phenomena, that includes the major hospital that I worked at previously in Atlanta, being the largest conglomerate of Georgia 

Back to Oahu, in the month July we had almost 1 million visitors come to the island and August is looking very similar at this point. That’s almost 1,000,000 visitors in one month, and July etc are similar.






Keith Sinclair said:


> Rates of infections going up pretty much all Delta variety. Even young people in 20's need oxygen. All unvaccinated. Other islands don't have facilities shipped to Oahu reaching saturation point at hospitals, workers long hours.
> 
> Governor wants to tighten regulations.


----------



## inferno

to me at least its very surprising that your colleagues got sick with covid when they are vaxxed. wow how could this even happen. i'm so baffled.

not really. though. i ****ing told you all a month ago this was gonna happen. no one wanted to listen. since you knew so ****ing good what the "scientists" told you. and now these scientist can suck ****ing dick.

yeah, well, when i went to school i took medicine A and B courses. and what was happening now was basically on page 20 of that book. this is basically as basic and fundamental as viruses gets. they mutate, and then the vaccines dont work. surprise surprise!!!!!!!!!! sometimes i wonder how ****ing stupid people can get. you really think 100 years of actual real scince and observation will be displaced by 100% incompetent lying pieces of **** in your gov? yeah well scinece doesn't really work that way. what can i say  and now you see the results of it...


----------



## inferno

yeah just wanted to say. what makes you think 5 shots will save you when 2 dont. its a sign the shots dont actully work in my eyes. but hey i have been wrong before. and i will be again. but in this very case i dont think i'm the one drawing the short straw. if you know what i mean.


----------



## M1k3

And yet the polio vaccine worked. And not for a little while, until the virus mutated enough for the vaccine to be useless.


----------



## EricEricEric

It seems very troubling that they would roll out experimental vaccines instead of using tried-and-true methods doesn’t it?

I remember my last influenza vaccination was in 2019, and from then on I refused to receive the influenza vaccination. The reason was because in 2019 the influenza vaccination was incredibly ineffective. It just out right didn’t work, and incidentally of course I got the flu that year even after receiving the vaccination.

It was at this time that I started to question if vaccinations for highly mutagenic viruses was just not the right direction to head in.

The issue is that the effectiveness has such a wide variance and you’re always behind the mutation. 

On that note here’s something very promising that I read about the other day









COVID: 90% of patients treated with new Israeli drug discharged in 5 days


The Phase II trial for an Israeli COVID drug saw some 29 out of 30 patients, moderate to serious, recover within days.




m.jpost.com







inferno said:


> yeah just wanted to say. what makes you think 5 shots will save you when 2 dont. its a sign the shots dont actully work in my eyes. but hey i have been wrong before. and i will be again. but in this very case i dont think i'm the one drawing the short straw. if you know what i mean.


----------



## ian

EricEricEric said:


> using tried-and-true methods doesn’t it?



What methods are you referring to? Pretty sure they were using whatever methods they had, and were being overwhelmed.

I also just don’t get this all or nothing attitude about vaccines you and @inferno have. Every single measure we’re using to fight the virus just reduces transmission rates or severity of illness. From what I’ve seen, the data does say that the vaccines are effective at that. They’re getting less effective as the virus mutates, but they’re still better than anything else we have by a large margin. What’s your argument here, that we’re over-relying on them and should also be investing lots of resources elsewhere, or that vaccines make people go back to bad behavior? I get that it’s not a perfect solution, and it’d be great if there were other therapies available as well. I hope that the drug in the Phase II trial referenced in your linked article pans out. But there’s a ton of data saying that the vaccines work reasonably well, while there’s only a small sample of data that says that this therapy does anything, so regarding it as a replacement for vaccination seems ludicrous to me at this point.


----------



## tcmx3

I dunno I feel like the fact that the virus will kill you dead if you another checkbox marked is a pretty big deal in a country where a very large percentage of people cant afford preventative health care, diabetes and obesity are rampant because of a cultural stint towards unhealthiness and no one wants to play by the rules that are nominally supposed to keep us safe from each other.

also as I think about the topic I will say in tech anywhere there is a war brewing between ICs and a certain class of managers who do not themselves produce very much and are as such now incapable of "demonstrating value" or whatever it is that they do. as people were starting to ease back into the office that was cooling but now with delta it's now possible we will see a once in a generation shift in power at work.


----------



## applepieforbreakfast

applepieforbreakfast said:


> I don't know, man. It's a real tough choice. When one side is biased towards science and caution, and the other side talks about using a dewormer to treat a virus and how masks infringe their rights...
> 
> Maybe I'm biased though. Two friends of mine lost a parent, another lost his favorite aunt.
> 
> My girlfriend's sister is currently infected, so we're kinda in limbo and waiting to see how that turns out. And the sister's husband just started showing symptoms too. They've got a daughter about to turn 18 and starting college in two weeks that they won't let get vaccinated because "ThEy DoN't KnOw ThE lOnGtErM eFfEcTs Of ThE vAcCiNe."
> 
> But that's just my opinion.




Just an update, GF's sister and her husband went to get the monoclonal antibody treatment on Tuesday. GF's sister was ineligible to receive it (and was a grumpy goose upon being informed), because it had been more than 10 days since she showed symptoms. The husband was eligible and is feeling a little better after paying $1,000 for it. The daughter tested positive on Wednesday, and so far is doing ok.

Side note, neither of them (GF's sister, nor her husband) asked about the long-term effects of the monoclonal antibody treatment.

Seems like it would have been less trouble for them to just get the vaccine.


----------



## riba

AZD7442 PROVENT Phase III prophylaxis trial met primary endpoint in preventing COVID-19







www.astrazeneca.com





Looks good


----------



## Keith Sinclair

EricEricEric said:


> I live in Oahu and work at a major hospital here. I’m not sure where you’re receiving all of your information from but may want to double check your source.
> 
> Young people are fine and the stats back that up. The majority of people that are infected are rarely negatively impacted by the virus as they are asymptomatic.
> 
> The people that are actually at risk for the virus are those with comorbidities, around 95% that die have comorbidities. The vaccine is proving to be significantly less effective against the variants, which only makes sense and that trend will continue to increase as time goes on
> 
> I’ve had multiple colleagues at my hospital become ill and diagnosed with the Delta variant and almost everyone is vaccinated now. It was bad enough that they were physically unable to work. We haven’t had anyone that’s unvaccinated get sick not even when the original virus peaked
> 
> A lot of people seem to have difficulty understanding why the virus is not affecting children. They also have difficulty not understanding why the overwhelming majority of people are asymptomatic when diagnosed with the virus and never experience any symptoms.
> 
> We are understaffed because they fired many people or did not renew their contracts during the last Covid peek (when no one was vaccinated) because we didn’t have enough patients and the ER was a ghost town. Our hospital was hemorrhaging money because we had almost zero patients last year when the virus peaked.
> 
> In fact all the hospitals I have worked at experienced the same phenomena, that includes the major hospital that I worked at previously in Atlanta, being the largest conglomerate of Georgia
> 
> Back to Oahu, in the month July we had almost 1 million visitors come to the island and August is looking very similar at this point. That’s almost 1,000,000 visitors in one month, and July etc are similar.



That's what I was saying earlier. Many people in the US & Hawaii are not that healthy with hypertension, type 2 diabetics, weak kidneys heart. Obesity. Eating processed foods. When I
had pre diabetics started reading labels on everything. I'm in my seventies, turned it around 
lost weight eat healthy. Don't even buy salad dressing anymore they put so much crap in it.
Make my own to me tastes better.

I get my information from nightly news. They were saying even younger people were getting 
sick with Delta strain.

Most all those one million tourist are from mainland USA
They couldn't wait to get out after being couped
up over a year. Asians who make up a large part 
of Hawaii tourist are not coming yet because of 
covid.


----------



## JDA_NC

applepieforbreakfast said:


> Just an update, GF's sister and her husband went to get the monoclonal antibody treatment on Tuesday. GF's sister was ineligible to receive it (and was a grumpy goose upon being informed), because it had been more than 10 days since she showed symptoms. The husband was eligible and is feeling a little better after paying $1,000 for it. The daughter tested positive on Wednesday, and so far is doing ok.
> 
> Side note, neither of them (GF's sister, nor her husband) asked about the long-term effects of the monoclonal antibody treatment.
> 
> Seems like it would have been less trouble for them to just get the vaccine.



For me, this has been one of the more bizarre turns in this whole pandemic saga.

People who are skeptical about the vaccines are instead coming out and simping for these Pharma companies who are peddling the monoclonal antibody treatments.

*"In initial deals with the U.S. government, Pfizer and BioNTech's vaccine costs $19.50 per dose, compared with $15 for Moderna's shot, $16 for Novavax's program, $10 for Johnson & Johnson's vaccine and $4 for AstraZeneca's. Pfizer didn’t take any government development funds for its shot, while other players received various amounts of assistance, and Pfizer was the first to reach the market. " (Pfizer eyes higher prices for COVID-19 vaccine after the pandemic wanes: exec, analyst)*

and then,

*"The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services bought the first 300,000 doses of Regeneron’s product for $1,500 per dose in July 2020, then added an additional 1.25 million at $2,100 per dose. It provides the medication free, but medical centers can charge to cover their costs of administering it. Those costs are covered by Medicaid, Medicare and private insurance.

....

Another single monoclonal antibody, sotrovimab, made by GlaxoSmithKline and Vir Biotechnology, was given emergency use authorization in May. It is not free to patients, with a wholesale acquisition cost of $2,100 per dose, but the drug company said it would reimburse the cost of receiving the medication except for the amount covered by private insurance"* (https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...9a0b5e-0029-11ec-a664-4f6de3e17ff0_story.html)

All these whore politicians (and their sheep) screaming "WhAt AbOuT tHe DeFiciT?" when it comes to investing in our nation's infrastructure yet also want to help stuff Big Pharma's pockets at our expense...


----------



## juice

JDA_NC said:


> All these whore politicians (and their sheep) screaming "WhAt AbOuT tHe DeFiciT?" when it comes to investing in our nation's infrastructure yet also want to help stuff Big Pharma's pockets at our expense...


Gotta look after those who donate to your campaign finances...


----------



## Keith Sinclair

The CDC says all covid vaccine are free to Americans even if don't have health insurance.

So it's our tax dollars because government providing service with option to collect cost 
from health insurance companies. Also government fund to finance research.

If my two Moderna shots cost 30 dollars as you pointed out, not so bad. Of coarse if you x that by population of US, no small amount of money. 

Here seniors % most vaccinated. As go down in age groups less. 20's-30's age group the most new positive cases also least % vaccinated group. Pacific Islanders highest hospitalization.


----------



## JDA_NC

Keith Sinclair said:


> The CDC says all covid vaccine are free to Americans even if don't have health insurance.
> 
> So it's our tax dollars because government providing service with option to collect cost
> from health insurance companies. Also government fund to finance research.
> 
> If my two Moderna shots cost 30 dollars as you pointed out, not so bad. Of coarse if you x that by population of US, no small amount of money.
> 
> Here seniors % most vaccinated. As go down in age groups less. 20's-30's age group the most new positive cases also least % vaccinated group. Pacific Islanders highest hospitalization.



Here is the crazy part:

*"No funding commitments from HHS to Regeneron were announced Tuesday, but under a 10-year agreement signed in 2017, the agency will pay for 80% of R&D and manufacturing costs after selecting the antibodies it plans to advance." *(Regeneron partners with US government to develop coronavirus treatment)

and

"Regeneron Pharmaceuticals revenue for the quarter ending June 30, 2021 was *$5.139B*, a *163.24% increase* year-over-year.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals revenue for the twelve months ending June 30, 2021 was *$12.384B*, a *67.64% increase* year-over-year." (Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Revenue 2006-2021 | REGN)

You know how much wearing a mask costs individuals and us as a society? Next to nothing. And it has been politicized to hell in this country.

Vaccines are a fraction of the cost of these monoclonal antibody treatments, they cost less/are easier to administer, and they also provide protection for a much longer period of time as well.

I'm not saying that these treatments don't have a use. Obviously they do. But we need to ask why certain "leaders" in our country are pushing these 10x harder than they are, say, wearing masks or getting the vaccine.

So in summary: We [United States taxpayers] are paying for 80% of the R&D and manufacturing costs of Regeneron. And then we are paying for our government to purchase millions of these treatments for ~$2k each. And then, if we get sick, we are going to pay the "hospital administration costs" in order to receive this treatment. Yup... that is our healthcare system in a ****ing nutshell.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

The only industrialized country where 
you can lose all your money & property due to
medical cost.

Of coarse personal responsibility can help. Couldn't help but notice all the population in
Japan during Olympics wearing mask & large
groups streamed from US none wearing mask.

Worked many years in Hotel kitchens, have seen just about everything. When I was a kid in
VA. cigarette ads were everywhere. Used to like
watching my Aunt blow smoke rings. I'd go over to her house for 7-up & ice creme floats.
Never got those at home. Me & my best friend cutting our thumbs with pocket knife to be blood brothers. How times have changed.


----------



## KJDedge

I think it’s time everyone comes to grip with mask reality….the cloth 
and ill fitting ones people are wearing are very ineffective… Canadian controlled study from university in Ontario states they block less than 10% of aerosols…(a proper fitted N95 blocks 50%
and hardly anyone wears those)… ventilation is more effective than even the best masks…... mask wearing may make you feel safe but it’s not really doing much….


----------



## riba

KJDedge said:


> I think it’s time everyone comes to grip with mask reality….the cloth
> and ill fitting ones people are wearing are very ineffective… Canadian controlled study from university in Ontario states they block less than 10% of aerosols…(a proper fitted N95 blocks 50%
> and hardly anyone wears those)… ventilation is more effective than even the best masks…... mask wearing may make you feel safe but it’s not really doing much….


I did notice people tend to keep a bit more of a distance when wearing a mask.


----------



## LostHighway

KJDedge said:


> I think it’s time everyone comes to grip with mask reality….the cloth
> and ill fitting ones people are wearing are very ineffective… Canadian controlled study from university in Ontario states they block less than 10% of aerosols…(a proper fitted N95 blocks 50%
> and hardly anyone wears those)… ventilation is more effective than even the best masks…... mask wearing may make you feel safe but it’s not really doing much….



Do you have a link for the Ontario study? This is the only U Ontario study I could quickly find but the results don't line up. The efficiency numbers you cited seem low to me but that is just a gut reaction without seeing the research. I entirely agree that most people are wearing low quality masks and often masks that aren't properly fitted but the evidence I've seen suggests that you can do much better than 50% efficiency with an N95 filtration media given a properly fitted mask.
There is some limited evidence that suggesting that there can be transmission via viral aerosols getting in the eyes. Obviously a mask isn't going to prevent that unless you're wearing a full face mask but even just wearing glasses may help.


----------



## tcmx3

If you quote a study or article please link directly to a non-paywalled version of it.


----------



## ian

LostHighway said:


> There is some limited evidence that suggesting that there can be transmission via viral aerosols getting in the eyes. Obviously a mask isn't going to prevent that unless you're wearing a full face mask but even just wearing glasses may help.



I’m kinda pissed they didn’t warn me about this when I got lasik 7 years ago. “Doctors.” Sigh.


----------



## KJDedge

MIT study said indoors doesn’t matter if you are 6 ft or 60 ft apart…
same % chance of getting covid… and those silly plastic partitions actually make it worse since they disrupt the ventilation pattterns in the room….if you are indoors the best defense is a well ventilated room…


----------



## KJDedge

Most face masks won't stop COVID-19 indoors, study warns


Despite wearing a face mask, the study finds a large buildup of aerosol droplets suspended in the air coming from wearers.




www.studyfinds.org


----------



## ian

KJDedge said:


> MIT study said indoors doesn’t matter if you are 6 ft or 60 ft apart…
> same % chance of getting covid… and those silly plastic partitions actually make it worse since they disrupt the ventilation pattterns in the room….if you are indoors the best defense is a well ventilated room…



Interesting. One should just qualify this by saying that their study assumes a “well-mixed” room where the air is circulating around, and also assumes that everyone is wearing masks. They mention that without masks, the respiratory plume around a person can endanger people that are close by more.


----------



## KJDedge

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwir0NO4-sTyAhVQCc0KHTwfB2EQtwJ6BAgMEAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2021%2F04%2F23%2Fmit-researchers-say-youre-no-safer-from-covid-indoors-at-6-feet-or-60-feet-in-new-study.html&usg=AOvVaw3Or36crY0DgcB61PBPx9LZ


----------



## LostHighway

The EPA and MIT, among others, were saying that this virus should be treated as an aerosol with regard to transmission in the spring of 2020 while both the CDC and WHO were doubling down on droplets and formites. The CDC really hasn't distinguished themselves during the past eighteen months. They didn't even acknowledge aerosol transmission until a few months ago and there has been no mea culpa.


----------



## juice

LostHighway said:


> The CDC really hasn't distinguished themselves during the past eighteen months.


Yeah, well, when you put clueless donors in charge of scientific agencies, I can't say I'm SHOCKED to discover they don't work well...


----------



## tcmx3

from: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing A Dramatic Surge In New COVID Cases. Here's Why



> The good news is that among Israel's serious infections on Thursday of this week, according to Health Ministry data, the rate of serious cases among unvaccinated people over age 60 (178.7 per 100,000) was nine times more than the rate among fully vaccinated people of the same age category, and the rate of serious cases among unvaccinated people in the under-60 crowd (3.2 per 100,000) was a little more than double the rate among vaccinated people in that age bracket.



so like, Im definitely happy Im vaccinated


----------



## KJDedge

I posted links but it looks like the moderator removed them?
it was a headline posted on Drudge Report with a link to it….


----------



## KJDedge

It was university of Waterloo….. studyfindsdotorg had an article…
another study in the annals of internal medicine said cloth and n95
didnt stop aerosols from covid sars when coughing….totally ineffective was the conclusion…that was from July 2020…
point being, I think there is a lot of no to low science driving some of these various mandates….
my favorite stupid one is having to wear a mask walking into the restaurant but then removing it for hours while you eat…totally nonsensical…


----------



## KJDedge

And the other study that said those silly glass partitions in bars and restaurants actually make it worse cause they impede the ventilation… lots of ineffective things being done….
i wear a mask whenever required, but I don’t like some of this blind faith that these ill fitting cotton masks are doing anything to help…


----------



## juice

KJDedge said:


> it was a headline posted on Drudge Report with a link to it….


Ah yes, I always go to Drudge for fact-based stuff. Especially non-political fact-based stuff like masks.


----------



## Nemo

KJDedge said:


> I posted links but it looks like the moderator removed them?
> it was a headline posted on Drudge Report with a link to it….


Nope, I don't think your links got deleted.


----------



## KJDedge

juice said:


> Ah yes, I always go to Drudge for fact-based stuff. Especially non-political fact-based stuff like masks.


Don’t dismiss the study because you dont like the source…


----------



## juice

KJDedge said:


> Don’t dismiss the study because you dont like the source…


If the study was good, it would be reported somewhere decent. If Drudge is the only reporting source people can find, then yeah, I'm ignoring it.


----------



## tcmx3

KJDedge said:


> Don’t dismiss the study because you dont like the source…



Drudge is not a source. tabloids are not purveyors of reality.

if you have a study link directly to the study if it's valid then we can read the study.


----------



## ian

KJDedge said:


> It was university of Waterloo….. studyfindsdotorg had an article…



It's this study. I assume you were looking at this article. It's true that the efficiency of the masks at filtering aerosols seems lower than I'd expect. But they're still useful, at marginal cost to the wearer! And they also block larger particles. Also, here is a quote from the author:









KJDedge said:


> another study in the annals of internal medicine said cloth and n95
> didnt stop aerosols from covid sars when coughing….totally ineffective was the conclusion…that was from July 2020…



This I assume is this study. You will notice that it says "This article has been retracted."



KJDedge said:


> And the other study that said those silly glass partitions in bars and restaurants actually make it worse cause they impede the ventilation…



Let me reiterate that this study was for rooms with well-mixed air and _where everyone is wearing a mask. _(So, not actually applicable to bars and restaurants.) It may very well be that partitions don't work in those settings, but that study doesn't show it.

----

I don't mean to be critical of your conclusions -- I don't feel like an expert on efficacy of masks -- but I don't think the sources you cite are supporting your conclusions very well.


----------



## KJDedge

ian said:


> It's this study. I assume you were looking at this article. It's true that the efficiency of the masks at filtering aerosols seems lower than I'd expect. But they're still useful, at marginal cost to the wearer! And they also block larger particles. Also, here is a quote from the author:
> 
> View attachment 139135
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This I assume is this study. You will notice that it says "This article has been retracted."
> 
> 
> 
> Let me reiterate that this study was for rooms with well-mixed air and _where everyone is wearing a mask. _(So, not actually applicable to bars and restaurants.) It may very well be that partitions don't work in those settings, but that study doesn't show it.
> 
> ----
> 
> I don't mean to be critical of your conclusions -- I don't feel like an expert on efficacy of masks -- but I don't think the sources you cite are supporting your conclusions very well.


My point is that the efficacy of masks is highly questionable and that an open debate is good for all.. blind faith in either approach (mask or no mask) leads to dissent and bias ..: the society all needs to work together to find the workable solutions ..


----------



## ian

Hmm, I don't know if I agree. I think a wide majority of the good evidence out there right now says that masks are effective. I guess maybe there's some question about whether the cheap cloth masks and neck gaiters do much besides control spread of larger droplets, but it sure looks like the scientific community still agrees that masks are a good idea. I think a lot of sensationalist publications are hyping up studies like the ones you mentioned and not always putting the findings in the proper context, which makes it look more like there are two equal sides than is actually the case.


----------



## tcmx3

KJDedge said:


> My point is that the efficacy of masks is highly questionable and that an open debate is good for all.. blind faith in either approach (mask or no mask) leads to dissent and bias ..: the society all needs to work together to find the workable solutions ..



honest question why is debate good for everyone if one side is arguing from either a set of incorrect assumptions because of their disconnect from sources of actual truth or even worse bad faith? seems like actually debate is bad in that case, because it suggests that certain viewpoints divorced from reality have equal credence to those coming from genuine experts, namely professional scientists in the relevant fields e.g. epidemiology or taerosol ransmission of sars viruses.

also why do you think your opinion is valuable?

please answer in a way that doesnt boil down to: I have thoughts so I should share them.

what are your credentials that we should listen to you?


----------



## ian

Fwiw, I do agree that debate becomes pointless when it's divorced from fact, but I doubt many of us around here are credentialed in epidemiology or the physics of airborne particles.


----------



## M1k3

KJDedge said:


> My point is that the efficacy of masks is highly questionable and that an open debate is good for all.. blind faith in either approach (mask or no mask) leads to dissent and bias ..: the society all needs to work together to find the workable solutions ..


----------



## rob

While masks are not 100% effective at stopping the spread it does seem pretty clear they certainly help.

I mean doctors and nurses working 40 plus hours a week in Covid wards are largely able to remain uninfected.


----------



## Bobby2shots

inferno said:


> yeah just wanted to say. what makes you think 5 shots will save you when 2 dont. its a sign the shots dont actully work in my eyes. but hey i have been wrong before. and i will be again. but in this very case i dont think i'm the one drawing the short straw. if you know what i mean.



The shots never claimed to be a cure,,, They were developed to mitigate the risk of serious, possibly life-threatening complications, and reduce hospitalization.


----------



## riba

FDA Approves First COVID-19 Vaccine


FDA approved the first COVID-19 vaccine, now marketed as Comirnaty, for the prevention of COVID-19 disease in individuals 16 years of age and older.




www.fda.gov


----------



## juice

riba said:


> FDA Approves First COVID-19 Vaccine  FDA approved the first COVID-19 vaccine, now marketed as Comirnaty, for the prevention of COVID-19 disease in individuals 16 years of age and older.
> 
> 
> 
> www.fda.gov


Time to pivot from "It's not approved!" to "The government can't tell me what to put in my body!"


----------



## spaceconvoy

I think we all recognize that masks have some benefit on the individual level. Not sure why anyone is bothering to argue with people who cite garbage sources and will never be convinced... But unlike vaccines, mask effectiveness is dependent on behavior and constant vigilance, so there is still a worthwhile debate about broad mask mandates IMO



https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/the-science-of-masking-kids-at-school-remains-uncertain.html



"The [CDC] published a notable, yet mostly ignored, large-scale study of COVID transmission in American schools... Distancing, hybrid models, classroom barriers, HEPA filters, and, most notably, _requiring student masking_ were each found to *not* have a statistically significant benefit."

Emphasis mine. If you're committed to "following the science," do you still support mask mandates for school children? At what point do we admit that this has become 'pandemic security theater' and more about projecting cultural values than actual science. Or do you believe that the mask mandates studied in Georgia were perhaps not carried out ideally - like communism, maybe it's a good idea that just hasn't been executed properly yet (sarcasm, if that's not clear).


----------



## juice

spaceconvoy said:


> At what point do we admit that this has become 'pandemic security theater'


But that can still be worthwhile in helping convince people that it's actually a problem.


----------



## daveb




----------



## LostHighway

spaceconvoy said:


> "The [CDC] published a notable, yet mostly ignored, large-scale study of COVID transmission in American schools... Distancing, hybrid models, classroom barriers, HEPA filters, and, most notably, _requiring student masking_ were each found to *not* have a statistically significant benefit."
> 
> Emphasis mine. If you're committed to "following the science," do you still support mask mandates for school children? At what point do we admit that this has become 'pandemic security theater' and more about projecting cultural values than actual science. Or do you believe that the mask mandates studied in Georgia were perhaps not carried out ideally - like communism, maybe it's a good idea that just hasn't been executed properly yet (sarcasm, if that's not clear).



The study in Georgia elementary schools does have a number of significant methodological issues, which they acknowledge. That aside, my takeaway from this study and all the credible research I've seen is that you use *all* the tools at your disposal, and don't put all your focus on a single line of defense.
The ventilation and filtration* issue is clearly a significant variable which makes the resistance of the CDC and WHO to acknowledge aerosol transmission for over a year all the more appalling. Masking preschool and elementary school age students is always going to be problematic for a litany of reasons, with older students it should be far less of problem. Where good ventilation can be achieved I think there are a number of strong arguments for sending kids back to school whether or not you can establish good mask behavior but in most of North America that is going to be impossible for much of the school year (given existing buildings).

*it should be acknowledged that a number of school districts nationally unfortunately spent big on filtration technologies with no proven effectiveness.


----------



## big_adventure

KJDedge said:


> My point is that the efficacy of masks is highly questionable and that an open debate is good for all.. blind faith in either approach (mask or no mask) leads to dissent and bias ..: the society all needs to work together to find the workable solutions ..



Scientifically, it's absolutely not highly questionable. They have a positive effect. This is why epidemiologists speak of a layered approach: distancing, masks, vaccines, etc. Nothing is 100% effective, but combining multiple tactics with _some_ efficacy gives you more than any one of the measures do, and massively more than doing nothing at all.


----------



## big_adventure

spaceconvoy said:


> I think we all recognize that masks have some benefit on the individual level. Not sure why anyone is bothering to argue with people who cite garbage sources and will never be convinced... But unlike vaccines, mask effectiveness is dependent on behavior and constant vigilance, so there is still a worthwhile debate about broad mask mandates IMO
> 
> 
> 
> https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/the-science-of-masking-kids-at-school-remains-uncertain.html
> 
> 
> 
> "The [CDC] published a notable, yet mostly ignored, large-scale study of COVID transmission in American schools... Distancing, hybrid models, classroom barriers, HEPA filters, and, most notably, _requiring student masking_ were each found to *not* have a statistically significant benefit."
> 
> Emphasis mine. If you're committed to "following the science," do you still support mask mandates for school children? At what point do we admit that this has become 'pandemic security theater' and more about projecting cultural values than actual science. Or do you believe that the mask mandates studied in Georgia were perhaps not carried out ideally - like communism, maybe it's a good idea that just hasn't been executed properly yet (sarcasm, if that's not clear).



My kids went to school all last year with mask mandates in place. There were very few cases of covid among students, and they were agressive in mandating tests for contact cases when one showed up. To be fair, one of my sons brought it home and infected the rest of us before we knew, despite all of that. However, I firmly believe that it would have been massively worse with no masking and no other efforts at all. This is a school with 800 kids from 11 to 15.


----------



## ian

spaceconvoy said:


> I think we all recognize that masks have some benefit on the individual level. Not sure why anyone is bothering to argue with people who cite garbage sources and will never be convinced... But unlike vaccines, mask effectiveness is dependent on behavior and constant vigilance, so there is still a worthwhile debate about broad mask mandates IMO
> 
> 
> 
> https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/the-science-of-masking-kids-at-school-remains-uncertain.html
> 
> 
> 
> "The [CDC] published a notable, yet mostly ignored, large-scale study of COVID transmission in American schools... Distancing, hybrid models, classroom barriers, HEPA filters, and, most notably, _requiring student masking_ were each found to *not* have a statistically significant benefit."
> 
> Emphasis mine. If you're committed to "following the science," do you still support mask mandates for school children? At what point do we admit that this has become 'pandemic security theater' and more about projecting cultural values than actual science. Or do you believe that the mask mandates studied in Georgia were perhaps not carried out ideally - like communism, maybe it's a good idea that just hasn't been executed properly yet (sarcasm, if that's not clear).



Idk about this. I think the reason this part of the study hasn’t been more widely reported is not because of a coverup, but because the authors of the study aren’t confident about it and aren’t as sure exactly what to say about it. I mean, this part of it doesn’t even appear in the main abstract. Here‘s the first mention of it:






I guess they saw a 21% decrease in covid cases with a mask requirement in comparison to mask optional schools, but they don’t consider this significant. They do still recommend masks for students. They also talk about the limitations of their study later on, e.g.






They also mention that their study cannot be used to determine cause-and-effect. I guess one reason for that is that the different strategies that schools employee are not independent? Like, it’s not the case that they’re able to compare two schools that employ all the same measures, except that one requires masks and the other doesn’t. I guess my take away from reading this is that maybe student masking is less effective than I thought, but the jury’s still out. I’ll be interested in seeing more data on this when it‘s available.


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> View attachment 139138



why do you have a "right" to engage in behavior that puts other people at risk.

do you have a right to point a gun at people?

super questionable mentality.

people still having this framing is why things are so bad here. why vaccinations are so low, people are screaming at retail workers because theyve been asked to wear a mask, TN/TX/FL icus are literally filled to the brim. after nearly a year of this so many people *still* do not understand the basic premise that when you live in a group of people you have some shared responsibility for the safety of that group.

how many people are going to have to die before we look around and finally accept maybe for once our gross obsession with individualism is literally killing us.


----------



## gregfisk

tcmx3 said:


> why do you have a "right" to engage in behavior that puts other people at risk.
> 
> do you have a right to point a gun at people?
> 
> super questionable mentality.
> 
> people still having this framing is why things are so bad here. why vaccinations are so low, people are screaming at retail workers because theyve been asked to wear a mask, TN/TX/FL icus are literally filled to the brim. after nearly a year of this so many people *still* do not understand the basic premise that when you live in a group of people you have some shared responsibility for the safety of that group.
> 
> how many people are going to have to die before we look around and finally accept maybe for once our gross obsession with individualism is literally killing us.



^^^^^^^^^
THIS!!!


----------



## jacko9

COVID is with us and mutations are happening. With the country so divided on many issues we don't seem to have a "United Front" to fight against this Pandemic.


----------



## LostHighway

tcmx3 said:


> why do you have a "right" to engage in behavior that puts other people at risk.
> 
> do you have a right to point a gun at people?
> 
> super questionable mentality.
> 
> people still having this framing is why things are so bad here. why vaccinations are so low, people are screaming at retail workers because theyve been asked to wear a mask, TN/TX/FL icus are literally filled to the brim. after nearly a year of this so many people *still* do not understand the basic premise that when you live in a group of people you have some shared responsibility for the safety of that group.
> 
> how many people are going to have to die before we look around and finally accept maybe for once our gross obsession with individualism is literally killing us.



I guess I read the graphic a bit differently from your interpretation. My take is that people have right not to get vaccinated and a right not to wear a mask but businesses also have the right not to employ them or allow them entry as does the government. The pro vaccine, pro mask and generally pro responsible behavior faction of the public has right not to patronize businesses that have been cavalier about the right to safety. The government has the right to deny the right to travel to those who elect not to vaccinate and not to wear a mask.
I see the political elites capitalizing on virus as those who act contrary to the science.


----------



## tcmx3

LostHighway said:


> I guess I read the graphic a bit differently from your interpretation. My take is that people have right not to get vaccinated and a right not to wear a mask but businesses also have the right not to employ them or allow them entry as does the government. The pro vaccine, pro mask and generally pro responsible behavior faction of the public has right not to patronize businesses that have been cavalier about the right to safety. The government has the right to deny the right to travel to those who elect not to vaccinate and not to wear a mask.
> I see the political elites capitalizing on virus as those who act contrary to the science.



I mean I think that's all fine in the abstract but the truth is when it comes to these shared spaces it's not working. 

Im actually not even advocating that we start punishing people who dont vaccinate with govt penalties either. What Im saying is that I think the mentality of placing some sort of insane level of inherent value on "individual rights" that it even crosses over into letting you potentially kill someone else is bad. like really, really bad.

When we look at who is dying from COVID it's not the crowd that are on facebook advocating about "rights" and "liberty" or whatever the hell else. We (because demographically Im in the group other than age) are doing this to them, and it's not right IMO. And I just dont see how anyone can look at the number of deaths and decide this is ok. 

I dont know, it's clear that this is always going to kill far more of the vulnerable. And I know that if you want to really change behavior, it has to impact the people who have the real power. It really is too bad there's not some equivalent to Nixon's tanking of the draft waivers because I guarantee we'd see some different behavior.


----------



## LostHighway

Operator error


----------



## Bobby2shots

What blows me away is the fact that some of these so-called "free" thinkers, have no issue with ingesting Ivermectin, a large livestock de-wormer, that has already killed a few people in Mississippi. What a crazy world.

George Carlin was right. I Quote "_Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that."_


----------



## LostHighway

tcmx3 said:


> I mean I think that's all fine in the abstract but the truth is when it comes to these shared spaces it's not working.
> 
> Im actually not even advocating that we start punishing people who dont vaccinate with govt penalties either. What Im saying is that I think the mentality of placing some sort of insane level of inherent value on "individual rights" that it even crosses over into letting you potentially kill someone else is bad. like really, really bad.
> 
> When we look at who is dying from COVID it's not the crowd that are on facebook advocating about "rights" and "liberty" or whatever the hell else. We (because demographically Im in the group other than age) are doing this to them, and it's not right IMO. And I just dont see how anyone can look at the number of deaths and decide this is ok.
> 
> I dont know, it's clear that this is always going to kill far more of the vulnerable. And I know that if you want to really change behavior, it has to impact the people who have the real power. It really is too bad there's not some equivalent to Nixon's tanking of the draft waivers because I guarantee we'd see some different behavior.



I guess I don't quite follow what you're proposing. I totally agree with your contention here:

_"And I know that if you want to really change behavior, it has to impact the people who have the real power. It really is too bad there's not some equivalent to Nixon's tanking of the draft waivers because I guarantee we'd see some different behavior."_

I'm all for sending executives to prison as opposed to leveling a fine on the corporation with no acknowledgement of wrong doing, that may work in the case of HSBC or the Sacklers and Purdue Pharma, for examples, but who would you impact in this situation and how?


----------



## tcmx3

LostHighway said:


> *I guess I don't quite follow what you're proposing. * I totally agree with your contention here:
> 
> _"And I know that if you want to really change behavior, it has to impact the people who have the real power. It really is too bad there's not some equivalent to Nixon's tanking of the draft waivers because I guarantee we'd see some different behavior."_
> 
> I'm all for sending executives to prison as opposed to leveling a fine on the corporation with no acknowledgement of wrong doing, that may work in the case of HSBC or the Sacklers and Purdue Pharma, for examples, but who would you impact in this situation and how?



I guess my proposal is that when we see someone discussing how masking, vaccines, etc. are a matter of individual choice that we challenge both 1. that it does not impact others immensely and 2. that there is such an inherent value to being able to make individual choices as society burns down around us in real time.


----------



## spaceconvoy

Comparing not getting vaccinated to pointing a gun at someone is beyond ludicrous. Not pointing a gun causes you zero harm. Vaccines have a small, nearly-marginal-but-still-possible risk. Pointing a gun is one step away from actual death, and a split second loss of motor control is all that's required. Not getting vaccinated hurts no one in itself, and is a number of steps removed from causing harm. You could not get vaccinated and wait in your house eating delivered MREs until the pandemic is over if you're really worried about anaphylaxis or myocarditis, for instance.

And consider the inverse: getting vaccinated and wearing a mask in public is infinitely more likely to result in someone's death than not pointing a gun at them. This is a terrible analogy.

You're going to have to come to grips with the fact that this is becoming an endemic virus, and unless you want to stay inside forever, we will all get it sooner or later.


----------



## ian

spaceconvoy said:


> Comparing not getting vaccinated to pointing a gun at someone is beyond ludicrous. Not pointing a gun causes you zero harm. Vaccines have a small, nearly-marginal-but-still-possible risk. Pointing a gun is one step away from actual death, and a split second loss of motor control is all that's required. Not getting vaccinated hurts no one in itself, and is a number of steps removed from causing harm. You could not get vaccinated and wait in your house eating delivered MREs until the pandemic is over if you're really worried about anaphylaxis or myocarditis, for instance.
> 
> And consider the inverse: getting vaccinated and wearing a mask in public is infinitely more likely to result in someone's death than not pointing a gun at them. This is a terrible analogy.
> 
> You're going to have to come to grips with the fact that this is becoming an endemic virus, and unless you want to stay inside forever, we will all get it sooner or later.



I think this is a little overboard. You’re nitpicking about all these basically nonexistent exceptional cases of unvaxed people who stay inside forever, and distinguishing between “none” and “basically none”, when his point is just that both can cause other people harm. Yes, the gun example is extreme in comparison, but he was just making a point that we do legislate against others causing us harm.


----------



## juice

tcmx3 said:


> how many people are going to have to die before we look around and finally accept maybe for once our gross obsession with individualism is literally killing us.


You are CLEARLY a communist (USA version). You should move down here, where while we have our share of "I'm more important than society as a whole" types, in general we're doing what's best for everyone. (Not NSW, screw them. They're the Florida of Australia.)



spaceconvoy said:


> You could not get vaccinated and wait in your house eating delivered MREs until the pandemic is over if you're really worried about anaphylaxis or myocarditis, for instance.


Yes, that does indeed seem to be the behaviour of the rabid anti-vaxxers - "I'll stay here so I'm not a danger to society in any way" - and results are clearly showing that.


----------



## spaceconvoy

ian said:


> I think this is a little overboard. You’re nitpicking about all these basically nonexistent exceptional cases of unvaxed people who stay inside forever, and distinguishing between “none” and “basically none”, when his point is just that both can cause other people harm. Yes, the gun example is extreme in comparison, but he was just making a point that we do legislate against others causing us harm.


I think you're both overboard. We legislate against direct harm, not always indirect. Raising highway speed limits since the 70s has caused thousands of additional deaths, but we decided we'd rather kill people than go 55mph. And there's a huge difference between restricting dangerous behavior and compelling a medical intervention. We already allow vaccine exemptions on religious grounds, a covid vaccine mandate by the government would be unprecedented. I'm all for employers, businesses, schools, etc requiring proof of vaccination, but I think you've lost your heads to fear if you believe the federal government should have this power.

"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety."

If the vaccine prevented transmission then you might have an argument, but there is only a degree of difference between a vaccinated and an unvaccinated person now that delta is dominant.


----------



## tcmx3

spaceconvoy said:


> but I think you've lost your heads to fear if you believe the federal government should have this power.





tcmx3 said:


> Im actually not even advocating that we start punishing people who dont vaccinate with govt penalties either. What Im saying is that I think the mentality of placing some sort of insane level of inherent value on "individual rights" that it even crosses over into letting you potentially kill someone else is bad. like really, really bad.



dunno if I could be any more clear.

also interesting quote (not that I take my life advice from quotes but it's fun) however upon googling it it turns out that Ben Franklin was actually arguing that the state of Pennsylvania should tax some rich folks to pay for soldiers to defend the frontier so yeah, thanks for agreeing I guess?

Im not sure why you seem so bought into the idea I want a federal vaccine mandate from my example. as Ian correctly pointed out, my point was merely to demonstrate that there are absolutely cases where your literal constitutional right to bear arms does not extend to you brandishing them and as such it's perfectly reasonable to at least consider the state mandating them. and it is indeed quite reasonable to at least have a real discussion and to question the frankly ridiculous assumption that your individual 'rights' extend infinitely even if it results in you causing someone else harm.


----------



## spaceconvoy

tcmx3 said:


> dunno if I could be any more clear.
> 
> also interesting quote (not that I take my life advice from quotes but it's fun) however upon googling it it turns out that Ben Franklin was actually arguing that the state of Pennsylvania should tax some rich folks to pay for soldiers to defend the frontier so yeah, thanks for agreeing I guess?
> 
> Im not sure why you seem so bought into the idea I want a federal vaccine mandate from my example. as Ian correctly pointed out, my point was merely to demonstrate that there are absolutely cases where your literal constitutional right to bear arms does not extend to you brandishing them and as such it's perfectly reasonable to at least consider the state mandating them. and it is indeed quite reasonable to at least have a real discussion and to question the frankly ridiculous assumption that your individual 'rights' extend infinitely even if it results in you causing someone else harm.


Your example is an argument for a government mandate. Brandishing a firearm isn't something that private organizations get to decide is allowed for themselves. Like I said originally, an over-the-top terrible analogy. I guess if you preemptively concede you don't endorse the conclusions of your own argument, you're off the hook for anything that follows. Nice job lawyering your way out of the point you were making.


----------



## tcmx3

spaceconvoy said:


> Your example is an argument for a government mandate. Brandishing a firearm isn't something that private organizations get to decide is allowed for themselves. Like I said originally, an over-the-top terrible analogy. I guess if you preemptively concede you don't endorse the conclusions of your own argument, you're off the hook for anything that follows. Nice job lawyering your way out of the point you were making.



I mean ok you want to say my analogy is "over-the-top terrible" (it's not as evidenced by the fact that Ian, who've I been at some odds with got the point immediately) but then you include a quote that you dont even understand so forgive me if Im not terribly concerned about your bit here about MY intellectual consistency lol.


----------



## daveb

tcmx3 said:


> why do you have a "right" to engage in behavior that puts other people at risk.
> 
> do you have a right to point a gun at people?
> 
> super questionable mentality.



Equating an individuals vax decision with pointing a gun at someone is so absurd that it removes credibility from the rest of your "arguments".

I accept that it is YOUR OPINION that an individual mask decision affects society as a whole and that society's interests are paramount to individual ones. I can make the reach about society interest (not a 100%, mind you) but the notion that Person A's decision about a mask / jab affects Person B or society as a whole is wanting.

Being Pro choice does not mean anti-vax.

And on another tangent - requiring all persons in the healthcare industry to be vaccinated will mean losing the 40% or so of healthcare professionals that have elected not to get the jab. In the buildings I've managed it's well over 50% of the dietary workforce that have chosen not to jab. Where da phuck are their replacements going to come from? Staffing is already at a crisis point - the latest feel good initiative will shut down healthcare in the states as we know it.


----------



## daveb

And now for a little levity, something completely different:


ABBOTT AND COSTELLO’S ‘WHO’S BEEN VACCINATED?’










Bud: ‘You can’t come in here!’
Lou: ‘Why not?’
Bud: ‘Well because you’re unvaccinated.’
Lou: ‘But I’m not sick.’
Bud: ‘It doesn’t matter.’
Lou: ‘Well, why does that guy get to go in?’
Bud: ‘Because he’s vaccinated.’
Lou: ‘But he’s sick!’
Bud: ‘It’s alright. Everyone in here is vaccinated.’
Lou: ‘Wait a minute. Are you saying everyone in there is vaccinated?’
Bud: ‘Yes.’
Lou: ‘So then why can’t I go in there if everyone is vaccinated?’
Bud: ‘Because you’ll make them sick.’
Lou: ‘How will I make them sick if I’m NOT sick and they’re vaccinated.’
Bud: ‘Because you’re unvaccinated.’
Lou: ‘But they’re vaccinated.’
Bud: ‘But they can still get sick.’
Lou: ‘So what the heck does the vaccine do?’
Bud: ‘It vaccinates.’
Lou: ‘So vaccinated people can’t spread covid?’
Bud: ‘Oh no. They can spread covid just as easily as an unvaccinated person.’
Lou: ‘I don’t even know what I’m saying anymore. Look. I’m not sick.
Bud: ‘Ok.’
Lou: ‘And the guy you let in IS sick.’
Bud: ‘That’s right.’
Lou: ‘And everybody in there can still get sick even though they’re vaccinated.’
Bud: ‘Certainly.’
Lou: ‘So why can’t I go in again?’
Bud: ‘Because you’re unvaccinated.’
Lou: ‘I’m not asking who’s vaccinated or not!’
Bud: ‘I’m just telling you how it is.’
Lou: ‘Nevermind. I’ll just put on my mask.’
Bud: ‘That’s fine.’
Lou: ‘Now I can go in?’
Bud: ‘Absolutely not?’
Lou: ‘But I have a mask!’
Bud: ‘Doesn’t matter.’
Lou: ‘I was able to come in here yesterday with a mask.’
Bud: ‘I know.’
Lou: So why can’t I come in here today with a mask? ….If you say ‘because I’m unvaccinated’ again, I’ll break your arm.’
Bud: ‘Take it easy buddy.’
Lou: ‘So the mask is no good anymore.’
Bud: ‘No, it’s still good.’
Lou: ‘But I can’t come in?’
Bud: ‘Correct.’
Lou: ‘Why not?’
Bud: ‘Because you’re unvaccinated.’
Lou: ‘But the mask prevents the germs from getting out.’
Bud: ‘Yes, but people can still catch your germs.’
Lou: ‘But they’re all vaccinated.’
Bud: ‘Yes, but they can still get sick.’
Lou: ‘But I’m not sick!!’
Bud: ‘You can still get them sick.’
Lou: ‘So then masks don’t work!’
Bud: ‘Masks work quite well.’
Lou: ‘So how in the heck can I get vaccinated people sick if I’m not sick and masks work?’
Bud: ‘Third base.’
And...scene...
Copied from a friend.


----------



## tcmx3

guys let me tell you this illustrative example was really not that extreme and the fact that you two arent getting it at all is a pretty big self own.

in fact I found some footage of SpaceConvoy writing in that quote:


----------



## ian

spaceconvoy said:


> I think you're both overboard. We legislate against direct harm, not always indirect. Raising highway speed limits since the 70s has caused thousands of additional deaths, but we decided we'd rather kill people than go 55mph. And there's a huge difference between restricting dangerous behavior and compelling a medical intervention. We already allow vaccine exemptions on religious grounds, a covid vaccine mandate by the government would be unprecedented. I'm all for employers, businesses, schools, etc requiring proof of vaccination, but I think you've lost your heads to fear if you believe the federal government should have this power.
> 
> "Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety."
> 
> If the vaccine prevented transmission then you might have an argument, but there is only a degree of difference between a vaccinated and an unvaccinated person now that delta is dominant.



Ok, maybe I inflamed things by using the word “legislate”, which wasn’t really part of the discussion. I also don’t advocate for government imposed vax mandates, although making (say, gov’t run) insurance more expensive is kind of a grey area that’s on its way there. Maybe it’d be less inflammatory to compare it to speeding, or any other reckless endangerment crime. But whatever.




daveb said:


> And now for a little levity, something completely different:
> 
> 
> ABBOTT AND COSTELLO’S ‘WHO’S BEEN VACCINATED?’
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bud: ‘You can’t come in here!’
> Lou: ‘Why not?’
> Bud: ‘Well because you’re unvaccinated.’
> Lou: ‘But I’m not sick.’
> Bud: ‘It doesn’t matter.’
> Lou: ‘Well, why does that guy get to go in?’
> Bud: ‘Because he’s vaccinated.’
> Lou: ‘But he’s sick!’
> Bud: ‘It’s alright. Everyone in here is vaccinated.’
> Lou: ‘Wait a minute. Are you saying everyone in there is vaccinated?’
> Bud: ‘Yes.’
> Lou: ‘So then why can’t I go in there if everyone is vaccinated?’
> Bud: ‘Because you’ll make them sick.’
> Lou: ‘How will I make them sick if I’m NOT sick and they’re vaccinated.’
> Bud: ‘Because you’re unvaccinated.’
> Lou: ‘But they’re vaccinated.’
> Bud: ‘But they can still get sick.’
> Lou: ‘So what the heck does the vaccine do?’
> Bud: ‘It vaccinates.’
> Lou: ‘So vaccinated people can’t spread covid?’
> Bud: ‘Oh no. They can spread covid just as easily as an unvaccinated person.’
> Lou: ‘I don’t even know what I’m saying anymore. Look. I’m not sick.
> Bud: ‘Ok.’
> Lou: ‘And the guy you let in IS sick.’
> Bud: ‘That’s right.’
> Lou: ‘And everybody in there can still get sick even though they’re vaccinated.’
> Bud: ‘Certainly.’
> Lou: ‘So why can’t I go in again?’
> Bud: ‘Because you’re unvaccinated.’
> Lou: ‘I’m not asking who’s vaccinated or not!’
> Bud: ‘I’m just telling you how it is.’
> Lou: ‘Nevermind. I’ll just put on my mask.’
> Bud: ‘That’s fine.’
> Lou: ‘Now I can go in?’
> Bud: ‘Absolutely not?’
> Lou: ‘But I have a mask!’
> Bud: ‘Doesn’t matter.’
> Lou: ‘I was able to come in here yesterday with a mask.’
> Bud: ‘I know.’
> Lou: So why can’t I come in here today with a mask? ….If you say ‘because I’m unvaccinated’ again, I’ll break your arm.’
> Bud: ‘Take it easy buddy.’
> Lou: ‘So the mask is no good anymore.’
> Bud: ‘No, it’s still good.’
> Lou: ‘But I can’t come in?’
> Bud: ‘Correct.’
> Lou: ‘Why not?’
> Bud: ‘Because you’re unvaccinated.’
> Lou: ‘But the mask prevents the germs from getting out.’
> Bud: ‘Yes, but people can still catch your germs.’
> Lou: ‘But they’re all vaccinated.’
> Bud: ‘Yes, but they can still get sick.’
> Lou: ‘But I’m not sick!!’
> Bud: ‘You can still get them sick.’
> Lou: ‘So then masks don’t work!’
> Bud: ‘Masks work quite well.’
> Lou: ‘So how in the heck can I get vaccinated people sick if I’m not sick and masks work?’
> Bud: ‘Third base.’
> And...scene...
> Copied from a friend.



Gotta say, while I appreciate the wit that went into writing this, I have a hard time finding it funny. The whole problem is that people are constantly saying “masks/vaccines work” or “masks/vaccines don’t work” when in both cases what they really do is make it _less likely _that you spread the virus or get sick from it. But in order to appreciate this skit, we’re supposed to buy in to the incorrect idea that it’s either an 100% or 0% effective game. Normally I might be able to appreciate the humor anyway, but there are so many people out there using this exact idea to undermine the effectiveness of our pandemic response that I just can’t.


----------



## daveb

tcmx3 said:


> guys let me tell you this illustrative example........



What's that line about ok to disagree but disagreeable not so much? Or do you expect a civility waiver because you're representing the greater good? And of course you're right?


----------



## daveb

ian said:


> Gotta say, while I appreciate the wit that went into writing this, I have a hard time finding it funny......



I hear ya. But I also can look back at the last 18 months and find real life examples that are as or more absurd. Wearing a mask 20 feet into a restaurant and then removing it once you're at your table and thinking you've accomplished something. Wearing a bandana, handkerchief, tshirt or bvd's over your face and calling it a mask. And so on. All done for conformities sake rather than because of merit. 

The skit is funny (to me) because it encapsulates all the stupid that has taken place while our leaders are more interested in doing something than accomplishing something.


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> What's that line about ok to disagree but disagreeable not so much? Or do you expect a civility waiver because you're representing the greater good? And of course you're right?



fine. maybe you can forgive me for being a bit prickly about the subject:


----------



## CA_cook

spaceconvoy said:


> Your example is an argument for a government mandate. Brandishing a firearm isn't something that private organizations get to decide is allowed for themselves. Like I said originally, an over-the-top terrible analogy. I guess if you preemptively concede you don't endorse the conclusions of your own argument, you're off the hook for anything that follows. Nice job lawyering your way out of the point you were making.



I don't buy your argument for a second. Every government has the right to protect its citizens from dangerous behaviors of other citizens. Your freedom is paramount but it does not allow you to hurt other people. You are free to drink yourself into a stupor in a bar but you cannot get behind the wheel. Not because government cares that you wrap your car around a tree and die, but because you can cause an accident that kill another human being. You can own a gun, but you cannot brandish it willy-nilly because it can harm an innocent human being. The government cannot compelled you to get vaccinated, but it can severely restrict your freedoms so that you wont hurt others. In some cases government can and will compel you to get vaccinated. Classic example: schoolchildren need to get their shots to be able to attend school. Why? Because the other kids don'0t have a choice of whether to go to school or not, education is compulsory, so the government has to ensure that schools are a safe environment for kids.

P.S. As the saying goes, you are entitled to your own opinions, but not to your own facts. I am more than annoyed by people cherry-picking facts to substantiate their opposition to vaccinations and masks. Maybe I am just a bit biased, I lost an innocent family member to COVID, pre-vaccines. I can tell you what I think of anti-vaxxers, but I will likely be banned from this group if I do.

P.S. And I am tired of this BS about COVID becoming endemic. It is becoming endemic because a portion of the population refuses to participate in reasonable and effective public health measures.


----------



## Michi

Analogies about brandishing a firearm are in appropriate, IMO. It's more like having speed limits on roads. I am not free to drive at any speed I feel like. Does that limit my personal freedom? It most certainly does. I sometimes get annoyed when I'm the only one on a wide open country road and I'm limited to 100 km/h.

We know from numerous studies that the number one factor when it comes to traffic injuries and fatalities is speed. The faster I go, the more likely it is that something bad will happen. True, serious accidents can happen at low speed, but they are far more likely to happen at high speed.

The more appropriate analogy is to ask whether a speed limit of 100 km/h is preferable to, say, a 140 km/h speed limit. 140 km/h works too, at the cost of more injuries and fatalities.

The same thing applies to masks and vaccination. Neither is a perfect recipe, but both contribute to improving the overall outcome.

How many dead people is someone's freedom to not wear a mask or to not get vaccinated worth?


----------



## juice

Michi said:


> How many dead people is someone's freedom to not wear a mask or to not get vaccinated worth?


600K and counting, I believe.


----------



## M1k3

juice said:


> 600K and counting, I believe.


Ahkchually, the final tally isn't done yet.


----------



## riba

juice said:


> 600K and counting, I believe.


That's unfortunately not true.
Masks only lower the rate at which covid spreads (still useful ofc), and vaccines are not working for 100% either.

Though I am sympathetic towards the message


----------



## riba

Here, the expectation is that there will be insufficient ICU capacity later this year. I think in 'normal' circumstances one should use something like QALY to assess priority.
With the choice of no vaccination however, that seems not fair.
Though of course one's other decisions (thinking of diet, substance abuse, exercise, etc) also influence health.


----------



## big_adventure

spaceconvoy said:


> I think you're both overboard. We legislate against direct harm, not always indirect. Raising highway speed limits since the 70s has caused thousands of additional deaths, but we decided we'd rather kill people than go 55mph. And there's a huge difference between restricting dangerous behavior and compelling a medical intervention. We already allow vaccine exemptions on religious grounds, a covid vaccine mandate by the government would be unprecedented. I'm all for employers, businesses, schools, etc requiring proof of vaccination, but I think you've lost your heads to fear if you believe the federal government should have this power.
> 
> "Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety."
> 
> If the vaccine prevented transmission then you might have an argument, but there is only a degree of difference between a vaccinated and an unvaccinated person now that delta is dominant.



Vaccination is already mandated for a bazillion things. And NO vaccine prevents a disease 100%. What vaccines do is reduce the pool of potential infections enough that the virus in question can't spread and can't form variants. Salk's polio vaccine was maybe 65% effective, but once everyone had it, it killed polio all the same in developed countries. Here, we have safe, effective vaccines that are much more effective than that, but, thanks to political tomfoolery (on one side) and general bad faith on the part of certain influential people (most of whom got the vaccines but spread FUD about them for ratings), half the population doesn't want them for absolutely non-existant reasons. They don't allow tracking, they don't magnetize you, they don't cause any diseases, the science wasn't rushed, and now, Pfizer's shot is fully approved (so no more hiding behind that stupid trope) and the others are weeks away. 

The same people who cry about not wanting to be forced to have a vaccine or forced to wear a mask in public because FREEDOM are generally the same ones who are absolutely _against_ the freedom of, say, immigration, and would certainly be against people driving cars without a driver's licence and insurance - which are also things that exist for the public good.

It would be one thing if _any_ anti-vax types were following your plan above of staying home and eating MRE's, but they aren't: they are engaging with others and therefore vastly increasing the risk to others, plus, they are increasing the load on the health care system, making it more likely that people who don't have their heads wedged firmly up their own asses can't receive necessary care in case of a problem.

And don't even get me started on guns - your comment above that "you" not pointing "your" gun at someone harms nobody ignores how many people are shot and killed each year accidentally or with someone else's gun (borrowed, found or stolen). Simply owning a gun increases the risk of gun-related incidents, and literally all of the science backs that up.


----------



## Michi

big_adventure said:


> Simply owning a gun increases the risk of gun-related incidents, and literally all of the science backs that up.


The biggest contributing factor to gun-related injuries and deaths are—surprise, surprise—guns.

Reduce the accessibility of guns and there are fewer incidents. It really is amazing, isn't it?


----------



## big_adventure

Michi said:


> The biggest contributing factor to gun-related injuries and deaths are—surprise, surprise—guns.
> 
> Reduce the accessibility of guns and there are fewer incidents. It really is amazing, isn't it?



I KNOW, right? It's so very stunning.

And what's great is we actually have a real-life, recent experiment on what happens to gun violence when the government does a gun buy-back combined with stricter laws. This won't surprise you to find out that it's... Australia. You guys just did this a few years back and, my god this data is _shocking, _gun violence and gun deaths dropped sharply.


----------



## big_adventure

France gives real time daily updates on the covid situation through the app we all have on our phones with our vaccination certificates and test results. To note: we still are under a strict indoor mask mandate everywhere in the country, school is about to start back up again (kids went all year last year except for a couple of weeks).

We are at 72.3% vaccinated.
397/100K people who are unvaccinated tested positive 
50/100K people who are vaccinated tested positive
28/million unvaccinated entered reanimation
2/million vaccinated entered reanimation
Hospitals are at 44% capacity
95.5% of our cases are Delta
Our case rate peaked a couple of weeks ago and is now dropping

Here, we have a relatively strict vaccine mandate in place: anybody who wants to go to a gym, restaurant, club, bar, museum, public building or who works in one of those things has to be vaccinated (and show proof) or has to be tested every 2 days until they are vax'ed. There is some protest against this mandate, of course, but we went from like 35% vax'ed to 73% vaxed in a month thanks to the mandate. And it's absolutely positively showing results.


----------



## riba

big_adventure said:


> I KNOW, right? It's so very stunning.
> 
> And what's great is we actually have a real-life, recent experiment on what happens to gun violence when the government does a gun buy-back combined with stricter laws. This won't surprise you to find out that it's... Australia. You guys just did this a few years back and, my god this data is _shocking, _gun violence and gun deaths dropped sharply.


My guess is that the concern is that things are moving from the left pocket to the right pocket. It is not likely that gun violence and gun deaths are going down when removing guns. But you'd have to look at the total amount of violence and deaths (probably can scope this better) to see whether it made an impact.


----------



## ian

big_adventure said:


> 28/million unvaccinated entered reanimation
> 2/million vaccinated entered reanimation









Don’t become a zombieTM! Get vaccinated!


----------



## JDA_NC

daveb said:


> And now for a little levity, something completely different:
> 
> 
> ABBOTT AND COSTELLO’S ‘WHO’S BEEN VACCINATED?’
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ....
> Copied from a friend.



I love comedy!!!



My favorite line from the Soundcloud page where this was uploaded:

"Hilarious! Looking forward to more humor from you soon, Phil."


----------



## ian

JDA_NC said:


> I love comedy!!!
> 
> 
> 
> My favorite line from the Soundcloud page where this was uploaded:
> 
> "Hilarious! Looking forward to more humor from you soon, Phil."




Heh ouch. RIP Phil


----------



## daveb

ntxt


----------



## juice

big_adventure said:


> And what's great is we actually have a real-life, recent experiment on what happens to gun violence when the government does a gun buy-back combined with stricter laws. This won't surprise you to find out that it's... Australia. You guys just did this a few years back and, my god this data is _shocking, _gun violence and gun deaths dropped sharply.



While this is true, we never had the fetishisation of guns and overall gun culture that the US has (not to mention the sheer NUMBER of guns in society), so it's something of an apples/oranges comparison, unfortunately. As an example, almost our entire gun stocks (OK, my bad) were long rifles, and almost no handguns.



riba said:


> My guess is that the concern is that things are moving from the left pocket to the right pocket. It is not likely that gun violence and gun deaths are going down when removing guns. But you'd have to look at the total amount of violence and deaths (probably can scope this better) to see whether it made an impact.



It certainly helped, but it was never a very significant problem in the first place, so there's no *massive* drop to point to.


----------



## big_adventure

riba said:


> My guess is that the concern is that things are moving from the left pocket to the right pocket. It is not likely that gun violence and gun deaths are going down when removing guns. But you'd have to look at the total amount of violence and deaths (probably can scope this better) to see whether it made an impact.



No, it's exactly that removing guns removes gun violence and gun deaths. Gun incidents go way down when removing guns. There have been a ton of full on scientific studies on Australia's recent-ish gun buyback and stricter laws. Accidental gun injuries and deaths dropped precipitously, as did suicides. Other crime dropped somewhat (though admittedly marginally) but deaths and injuries from other crime dropped a fair amount - it's a lot harder and more "personal" to kill or injure someone with your fists or a knife than a gun.


----------



## big_adventure

juice said:


> While this is true, we never had the fetishisation of guns and overall gun culture that the US has (not to mention the sheer NUMBER of guns in society), so it's something of an apples/oranges comparison, unfortunately. As an example, almost our entire gun stocks (OK, my bad) were long rifles, and almost no handguns.
> 
> 
> 
> It certainly helped, but it was never a very significant problem in the first place, so there's no *massive* drop to point to.



Obviously true on the fetishism and the types of guns, but studies show that, even with that, gun accidents and suicides dropped massively, and other crime got less lethal.


----------



## gregfisk

I’m all for gun control and laws that keep guns out of the hands of people that will do harm with them. But here in the US you are not going to get very many people to hand over their guns, at least not the people you want to do it.

I’ve been to Australia and loved it there. I look up to who you are as a society. I’m sure you have your fair share of idiots but after the last 5 years, seeing what’s been going on here, it can’t possibly be as many as we have. And I mean that from the bottom ofmy heart.


----------



## shotsfired

big_adventure said:


> France gives real time daily updates on the covid situation through the app we all have on our phones with our vaccination certificates and test results. To note: we still are under a strict indoor mask mandate everywhere in the country, school is about to start back up again (kids went all year last year except for a couple of weeks).
> 
> We are at 72.3% vaccinated.
> 397/100K people who are unvaccinated tested positive
> 50/100K people who are vaccinated tested positive
> 28/million unvaccinated entered reanimation
> 2/million vaccinated entered reanimation
> Hospitals are at 44% capacity
> 95.5% of our cases are Delta
> Our case rate peaked a couple of weeks ago and is now dropping
> 
> Here, we have a relatively strict vaccine mandate in place: anybody who wants to go to a gym, restaurant, club, bar, museum, public building or who works in one of those things has to be vaccinated (and show proof) or has to be tested every 2 days until they are vax'ed. There is some protest against this mandate, of course, but we went from like 35% vax'ed to 73% vaxed in a month thanks to the mandate. And it's absolutely positively showing results.



tested every 2 days, how long for a result?


----------



## tcmx3

JDA_NC said:


> I love comedy!!!
> 
> 
> 
> My favorite line from the Soundcloud page where this was uploaded:
> 
> "Hilarious! Looking forward to more humor from you soon, Phil."




in case anyone needs context it's not like this guy died of old age.

he died of covid.


----------



## Nemo

shotsfired said:


> tested every 2 days, how long for a result?


Imguessing a rapid antigen test? If so, about half an hour, I hear.


----------



## CA_cook

CUE Health and some others have a nucleic acid amplification (NAA) test that runs in 20 minutes. You can do it at home as well. So these days there is no technical barrier for rapidly testing people, just the cost, and this test is not that expensive either.


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> The biggest contributing factor to gun-related injuries and deaths are—surprise, surprise—guns.



I dunno @Michi... Guns dont kill people...

... Bullets do an awfully good job though. I dont know what all the fuss in America is about. Blah... Blah... Blah... second amendment... Blah... Blah... Blah... it doesn't say anything about the right to bear _loaded_ arms. Just outlaw ammunition..... or tax each bullet $1000  




juice said:


> It certainly helped, but it was never a very significant problem in the first place, so there's no *massive* drop to point to.



Yes and no... it depends how long your memory is and what you are pointing at. Australia had a run of mass shootings prior to Port Arthur [ref]:



> In the 18 years prior to federal and state government gun reforms (1979-1996) Australia saw 13 fatal mass shootings in which 104 victims were killed and at least another 52 were wounded.



We have not had one since. That is a massive drop!

Just to put Port Arthur into context... 35 people were killed and another 19 were wounded. This occured in 1996. As bad as America is, it wasnt until 2016 (20 years later!) that a single event surpassed Port Arthur. This happened in the Orlando nightclub shooting. Of course, the 2011 Norway attacks and 2017 Las Vegas shootings completely changed the scale.

On the other hand... you are right. We had declining firearm deaths prior to the reforms. There is no control group - so it is hard to easily determine whether the revised laws contributed to the long term trend which was already improving. Experts (see link above) tend to think the gun reforms accelerated the trend. 

Whatever the answer... I believe the laws cemented an attitude to firearms within the community at a critical time. Hopefully we can sustain that culture. Although countries like Australia are probably safer than they have ever been, I get the impression there is greater potential for motivated individuals to cause mass damage to communities... Perhaps I am wrong and I am just a victim of government propaganda? Either way I can certainly see the internet's role in radicalising people and providing blueprints for violence. You can also imagine how the gun control discussion might have gone down in a post-facebook, post-twitter world.

For Americans in the peanut gallery. Australia's success in gun control was because it was bipartisan. Even more remarkably, our prime minister at the time was a conservative. It goes to show, when both sides of the isle cooperate, laws which benefit the masses (at the cost of a smaller, more vocal constituency) can be implemented effectively. Surely there is a valuable less there for the present...


----------



## M1k3

Luftmensch said:


> I dunno @Michi... Guns dont kill people...
> 
> ... Bullets do an awfully good job though. I dont know what all the fuss in America is about. Blah... Blah... Blah... second amendment... Blah... Blah... Blah... it doesn't say anything about the right to bear _loaded_ arms. Just outlaw ammunition..... or tax each bullet $1000
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Yes and no... it depends how long your memory is and what you are pointing at. Australia had a run of mass shootings prior to Port Arthur [ref]:
> 
> 
> 
> We have not had one since. That is a massive drop!
> 
> Just to put Port Arthur into context... 35 people were killed and another 19 were wounded. This occured in 1996. As bad as America is, it wasnt until 2016 (20 years later!) that a single event surpassed Port Arthur. This happened in the Orlando nightclub shooting. Of course, the 2011 Norway attacks and 2017 Las Vegas shootings completely changed the scale.
> 
> On the other hand... you are right. We had declining firearm deaths prior to the reforms. There is no control group - so it is hard to easily determine whether the revised laws contributed to the long term trend which was already improving. Experts (see link above) tend to think the gun reforms accelerated the trend.
> 
> Whatever the answer... I believe the laws cemented an attitude to firearms within the community at a critical time. Hopefully we can sustain that culture. Although countries like Australia are probably safer than they have ever been, I get the impression there is greater potential for motivated individuals to cause mass damage to communities... Perhaps I am wrong and I am just a victim of government propaganda? Either way I can certainly see the internet's role in radicalising people and providing blueprints for violence. You can also imagine how the gun control discussion might have gone down in a post-facebook, post-twitter world.
> 
> For Americans in the peanut gallery. Australia's success in gun control was because it was bipartisan. Even more remarkably, our prime minister at the time was a conservative. It goes to show, when both sides of the isle cooperate, laws which benefit the masses (at the cost of a smaller, more vocal constituency) can be implemented effectively. Surely there is a valuable less there for the present...


See: Chris Rock - Bullet Control

Clip from his documentary:


----------



## Qapla'

Luftmensch said:


> I dunno @Michi... Guns dont kill people...


Quite true. We don't imprison or sue J.A. Henckels just because some yahoos might have committed a knifepoint robbery.



Luftmensch said:


> I dont know what all the fuss in America is about. Blah... Blah... Blah... second amendment... Blah... Blah... Blah... it doesn't say anything about the right to bear _loaded_ arms. Just outlaw ammunition..... or tax each bullet $1000


Ignorant foreigners need to study much harder before pontificating on US jurisprudence. I'll be nice and do your homework for you this time around: Attempting to deny or burden the technological means of expressing a right constitutes infringement of a right.









MINNEAPOLIS STAR AND TRIBUNE COMPANY, Appellant v. MINNESOTA COMMISSIONER OF REVENUE.







www.law.cornell.edu





But this has what to do with COVID again? Oh, right...

I'll bring things back on topic: I wonder if "vaccination" never was the correct word to use?


----------



## juice

Luftmensch said:


> On the other hand... you are right. We had declining firearm deaths prior to the reforms. There is no control group - so it is hard to easily determine whether the revised laws contributed to the long term trend which was already improving. Experts (see link above) tend to think the gun reforms accelerated the trend.


But that's the thing, apart from the hysteria around terms like "mass shootings" (and yes, your example given is entirely correct) very few Australians overall were killed with guns before the buyback, so it's hard to determine trends (as you say). Most people in the US killed with firearms aren't killed in "mass shootings" either so it's a poor metric to use to determine effectiveness, but it does make for good headlines.



Luftmensch said:


> Whatever the answer... I believe the laws cemented an attitude to firearms within the community at a critical time.


Yeah, it did an excellent job. Helped massively, as you note, by the bipartisanship.


----------



## tcmx3

Qapla' said:


> Ignorant foreigners



wack.


----------



## sansho

my unpopular personal opinion on guns in the US:

the existing level of harm (~40k deaths per annum) done by guns in the US is unfortunate but acceptable; *guns are useful tools worth having around*, and i prefer to be able to purchase them with minimal hassle and oversight. _however, if my family died in a shooting, maybe i'd be singing a different tune. i'm not above hypocrisy. hard to know without living through certain realities._

gun control in the US consists of half-measures that do little good if any. their primary effects are appeasement of uninformed gun control advocates and inconvenience of responsible gun users.

*strong* legislation comparable to that seen in oz could eventually yield beneficial harm-reduction results, but it would take some time. and even if outlawed outright, there will always be a substantial firearm reservoir accessible to criminals. still, it's hard for me to imagine that gun death wouldn't drop precipitously. i don't see such legislation happening in the US in my lifetime, and i say this with great thanks in spite of the benefits i believe it would bring.

the most sensationalized and oft-discussed type of gun violence is, of course, mass shootings. i don't think that any gun control in the US likely to happen in the foreseeable future (i.e. half-measures) will appreciably reduce this type of violence. this is a special type of thoroughly premeditated crime. such criminals are determined. so what if they have to drive to another state or get creative somehow? sadly, they'd find a way to do accomplish their mission. meanwhile, responsible gun users pay the price. and even if they did not have access to firearms, there are many other -- and arguably superior -- ways to achieve mass killings (e.g. IEDs).

i am generally opposed to increasing gun control in the US, half-measures or otherwise. but on that subject, if i could request one thing, it would be deregulation of suppressor fabrication and possession. i would like to see them no longer be NFA items, and i would like to see their use encouraged or even required in some contexts. who wouldn't want to increase the peace of those around them?

however, i concede that we will eventually have very strict gun control even in the US because that's just the way the world's heading. i take comfort in knowing it won't be a complete waste. something good will be gained. hopefully i won't be around to see it, though


----------



## sansho

tcmx3 said:


> it's getting old tbh and I wish you would just have the courage to admit you dont care if people die then at least I could find a little bit of respect for your honesty.



though i know this wasn't specifically directed my way, wow, very timely comment coinciding with mine. saying that i don't care that people die is a little hyperbolic. each death is tragic. but fair enough. i arguably said as much in my post just after yours.

and to reiterate, i don't think strong gun control is without merit, but i would prefer that it be effective so that we gain something for what we lose.


----------



## tcmx3

sansho said:


> though i know this wasn't specifically directed my way, wow, very timely comment coinciding with mine. *saying that i don't care that people die is a little hyperbolic.* each death is tragic. but fair enough. i arguably said as much in my post just after yours.
> 
> and to reiterate, i don't think strong gun control is without merit, but i would prefer that it be effective so that we gain something for what we lose.



well, perhaps. 

but I am only being honest about my perception. an unwillingness to make even the smallest of sacrifices says to me "I dont care". if you support doing something re covid then maybe that doesnt apply to you.

but I will say this is always the natural reaction. nothing is more offensive to us than an unpleasant truth. but that is the truth I see about anti-vaccine screed types from their actions. and I can say I care far less about the feelings of those offended by my observation than those waiting outside ICUs in several states right now because of anti-vaxx people taking up all the beds.

Dave accused me of being unpleasant, but does such behavior deserve anything else?


----------



## sansho

i'm no anti-vaxxer. i am thankful for vaccine technology (including mRNA tech) and am chomping at the bit for my third dose.

i am hypothetically in support of doing something about CoViD above and beyond what we're doing now, but i don't have the solution. i can think of things that would probably help, but idk how realistic they are to implement. and the thing is, i think that we should have been battling infectious disease way before covid (including less lethal coronaviruses we've always known, seasonal flu, the common cold, ...). a silver lining to all of this is increased awareness and conscientiousness. i haven't been sick since before covid. 

speaking of unpleasant truths... covid's a big deal, sure. but we have much bigger problems, and _all_ of them are bound to a HUGE problem that no one wants to talk about: *overpopulation*. how do we gracefully yet rapidly drop the population down to a stable 1-2 billion without crashing our infrastructure and economy? how could we do it with reverence for humanity? how would we have to change and grow as a society to secure a sustainable future? what would a post-scarcity society even feel like? i'd give up a lot more than guns and toys for that.


----------



## Qapla'

tcmx3 said:


> sometimes I wonder if all you folks who scream endlessly about RIGHTS and LIBERTY and FREEDOM actually think the rest of us believe you, or maybe youre actually aware that we see through your hypocrisy?
> 
> frankly I wish you would just have the courage to admit you dont care if people die then at least I could find a little bit of respect for your honesty.


If the others listened when all the folks who defend the rights and liberties of citizens spoke softly, perhaps there'd be no call for endless screaming?

What hypocrisy on whose part do you speak of? There might be a lot of different kinds of people who defend freedom, many of whom might be stating different things.

One doesn't have to be an "anti-vaxxer" or seek others' deaths to despise lawless and overweening power grabs from governments.


----------



## Luftmensch

M1k3 said:


> See: Chris Rock - Bullet Control





$5000 per bullet!!  See... I was being reasonable when I said $1000!!




Qapla' said:


> Ignorant foreigners












Qapla' said:


> But this has what to do with COVID again?



In both situations there is a highly motivated minority who claim "rights" that result in negative externalities for the many. Society is a constant negotiation over what is acceptable and what is not. Constitutions, laws and rights are not immutable. They are exactly what we decide they are at any given point in time. We can choose to change them as we see fit. 

In Australia, as many countries in the OECD, we have elected to view guns as a risk. One that requires heavy regulation to protect against rare but bad outcomes. Happily, the overwhelming majority of the country live meaningful and fulfilling lives despite these regulations. They don't think twice about it. Similarly, despite some complaints here... Australian (local/federal) governments have made the judgement that masks, lockdowns and vaccines play a role in protecting society. Again, the majority of the citizenry will comply as they understand the tradeoff even if it causes pain (e.g. financial hardship). Hopefully we can maintain that social fabric.






juice said:


> Yeah, it did an excellent job.



I was playing the devil's advocate by picking on a technicality (the mass shooting point). You are right. Gun crime is relatively rare here. Even if the laws had no effect, I am still proud to live in a country where the only guns that are 'easy' to buy are big and slow. I just don't see a need (and neither do the voters or lawmakers) for military style weapons.

Writing my previous response, I reflected on the role of the internet. I think it is worth saying again. The fact that regulations happened pre-social media is underrated. Perhaps the news cycle was also different back then? Say what you will about Howard... at least in this decision, it was not a case of policy via polling.... nor did it appear to be watered down...

By the way...



juice said:


> Not NSW, screw them. They're the Florida of Australia.



Hey! I resemble [sic] that fact!!

Actually... at a federal level I would say that Queensland has the weirdos (sorry @Michi)... On a state level... yes... I agree... NSW is doing a "gold standard" outbreak...


----------



## riba

big_adventure said:


> No, it's exactly that removing guns removes gun violence and gun deaths. Gun incidents go way down when removing guns. There have been a ton of full on scientific studies on Australia's recent-ish gun buyback and stricter laws. Accidental gun injuries and deaths dropped precipitously, as did suicides. Other crime dropped somewhat (though admittedly marginally) but deaths and injuries from other crime dropped a fair amount - it's a lot harder and more "personal" to kill or injure someone with your fists or a knife than a gun.


Oops, i meant to write it is likely gun violence and gun deaths goes down. 

Just meant to say that 'gun violence and gun deaths going down' doesn't matter if it is replaced by knife violence and knife deaths . 'gun violence and gun deaths' isn't a useful indicator.

(Personally not interested in guns at all).


----------



## Luftmensch

Bobby2shots said:


> George Carlin was right. I Quote "_Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that."_





Case in point... half of the population are more stupid than the _median_ stupidity.... 

Seriously though... Carlin is awesome


----------



## juice

sansho said:


> the existing level of harm (~40k deaths per annum) done by guns in the US is unfortunate but acceptable;


Kudos for admitting it. it's entirely obvious from the outside looking in that people like playing with their guns enough to accept 40k/pa deaths, but you're the first person I've come across who is willing to own it. Everyone else just rattles off massively BS excuses.



Luftmensch said:


>


LOL, yeah. As if that's something to get upset about (let alone shoot someone for... 



Luftmensch said:


> Actually... at a federal level I would say that Queensland has the weirdos (sorry @Michi)... On a state level... yes... I agree... NSW is doing a "gold standard" outbreak...


QLD, WA and the NT  

It's really not funny what's happening in NSW (1000 positives today) but their refusal to implement any of the lessons we learned down here in Victoria last year when we had our huge outbreak/lockdown because they spent that entire time sneering at us and telling everyone how good they were - well, that bit's funny


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> Actually... at a federal level I would say that Queensland has the weirdos (sorry @Michi)...


At least we haven't forgotten yet how to bend bananas!


----------



## big_adventure

riba said:


> Oops, i meant to write it is likely gun violence and gun deaths goes down.
> 
> Just meant to say that 'gun violence and gun deaths going down' doesn't matter if it is replaced by knife violence and knife deaths . 'gun violence and gun deaths' isn't a useful indicator.
> 
> (Personally not interested in guns at all).



Well, that does change things. And it DOES somewhat reduce violent and (especially) suicide and "accident" deaths. People don't accidentally kill themselves or their neighbors with knives, and it's infinitely harder to suicide oneself with a knife than with a gun. Also, nobody ever walked into a school and killed 19 people with a knife.


----------



## big_adventure

shotsfired said:


> tested every 2 days, how long for a result?



15 minutes for antigenic tests, you can get them for free from any pharmacy if you have a secu card (that's the national health care system card) or 28 bucks if you don't and don't qualify for free tests through another source.


----------



## big_adventure

Nemo said:


> Imguessing a rapid antigen test? If so, about half an hour, I hear.



15 minutes. They do them in front of night clubs if you aren't vax'ed.



CA_cook said:


> CUE Health and some others have a nucleic acid amplification (NAA) test that runs in 20 minutes. You can do it at home as well. So these days there is no technical barrier for rapidly testing people, just the cost, and this test is not that expensive either.



15 minutes, in France, it's free with a Secu card or 28 bucks if you don't have one (either illegal immigrant or tourist, basically).



sansho said:


> speaking of unpleasant truths... covid's a big deal, sure. but we have much bigger problems, and _all_ of them are bound to a HUGE problem that no one wants to talk about: *overpopulation*. how do we gracefully yet rapidly drop the population down to a stable 1-2 billion without crashing our infrastructure and economy? how could we do it with reverence for humanity? how would we have to change and grow as a society to secure a sustainable future? what would a post-scarcity society even feel like? i'd give up a lot more than guns and toys for that.



This is simply untrue - overpopulation isn't an issue, empirically. People being asshats is, but that's not because there are too many of them. Half of US farms could supply the world with food easily if the people running many of those countries didn't have horrible political agendas. Converting Nevada, Arizona and Utah desert into solar panels and storage facilities could supply the continent with cheap, sustainable electricity easily. But... people have their own economic, aesthetic, political and NIMBY interests making sure that isn't going to happen.


----------



## sansho

big_adventure said:


> This is simply untrue - overpopulation isn't an issue, empirically. People being asshats is, but that's not because there are too many of them. Half of US farms could supply the world with food easily if the people running many of those countries didn't have horrible political agendas. Converting Nevada, Arizona and Utah desert into solar panels and storage facilities could supply the continent with cheap, sustainable electricity easily. But... people have their own economic, aesthetic, political and NIMBY interests making sure that isn't going to happen.



food and electricity aren't the only issues, and doing as you suggest wouldn't save us.


----------



## big_adventure

sansho said:


> food and electricity aren't the only issues, and doing as you suggest wouldn't save us.



Again, the Earth is not overpopulated. I gave two things people cite. There are many others. The issue isn't resources, it's misuse of the ones we have. And reducing population wouldn't correct that - because usage was worse a hundred years ago, when the population was right in your sweet spot.


----------



## Michi

big_adventure said:


> And reducing population wouldn't correct that - because usage was worse a hundred years ago, when the population was right in your sweet spot.


Are you referring to per-capita usage or overall usage? Either way, I'm a bit skeptical. Overall seems impossible, seeing that the population has grown by more than a factor of three in that time. Per capita seems unlikely, too, seeing how much energy and other resources we now consume. (A hundred years ago, lots of people didn't have electricity in their homes yet, and streets were mostly lit with gas lamps.)

Do you have a source?


----------



## knifeknight

Nemo said:


> Imguessing a rapid antigen test? If so, about half an hour, I hear.


It‘s like „chez nous“, neighbouring southern Germany. Mostly you get your results in 10 minutes mailed or messaged to your phone.


----------



## big_adventure

Michi said:


> Are you referring to per-capita usage or overall usage? Either way, I'm a bit skeptical. Overall seems impossible, seeing that the population has grown by more than a factor of three in that time. Per capita seems unlikely, too, seeing how much energy and other resources we now consume. (A hundred years ago, lots of people didn't have electricity in their homes yet, and streets were mostly lit with gas lamps.)
> 
> Do you have a source?



Pollution was massively worse per-capita a hundred years ago in the west. I'm not talking about CO2 emissions, I'm talking about soot, particulate, etc. London suffered a literally killer smog 70 years back, where smog killed hundreds of people. Acid rain and building stained brown by the air were common in western cities up until 40 years ago. That's what I was referring to. Gas lamps and wood fired stoves are massively worse for the environment than electric ones.

For all the resources we consume, we can consume many times more if they are the right resources and consumed in the right way, it's just that we don't do that thanks to the reasons I gave above. That's what I mean by "overpopulation isn't a problem."


----------



## ian

sansho said:


> the existing level of harm (~40k deaths per annum) done by guns in the US is unfortunate but acceptable; *guns are useful tools worth having around*, and i prefer to be able to purchase them with minimal hassle and oversight. _however, if my family died in a shooting, maybe i'd be singing a different tune. i'm not above hypocrisy. hard to know without living through certain realities._



Hmm, a “tool” is something you use to accomplish a task, though. What tasks do you usually accomplish with an assault rifle? I can see the tool argument for a handgun in an urban setting (even though I personally think it would make my home more dangerous, not less) and for a rifle more generally. Maybe if you replace tool with toy that logic would apply to other weapons, but “toy” makes the argument less convincing.

But even with handguns and rifles, it seems like a lot to acknowledge the benefits of gun control and to then rate one’s _convenience_ in purchasing them higher than those benefits. Is the point more the principle of it rather than having to wait for a background check? That would make more sense to me.

I also don’t really believe the argument that mass shooters will get guns no matter what. Perhaps the most dedicated will, but I think the stats are that 75% of mass shootings are done with legally purchased guns. I don’t see these shooters, especially younger ones without lots of criminal connections, just automatically getting guns some other way, although some might.



sansho said:


> speaking of unpleasant truths... covid's a big deal, sure. but we have much bigger problems, and _all_ of them are bound to a HUGE problem that no one wants to talk about: *overpopulation*. how do we gracefully yet rapidly drop the population down to a stable 1-2 billion without crashing our infrastructure and economy? how could we do it with reverence for humanity? how would we have to change and grow as a society to secure a sustainable future? what would a post-scarcity society even feel like? i'd give up a lot more than guns and toys for that.



I think currently it’s controversial whether overpopulation is really the problem. Yes, there are tons of people, but we have the technology to make enough food for everyone, and population is declining in a fair number of countries now. I think there’s more food per capita now than 40 years ago? Guess we’ll see if that changes with the climate crisis. 

You can argue that overpopulation is making climate change worse (ie if there were half as many of everything then the climate would change half as fast), but it seems like a much better idea to me to just address the climate change directly. I guess the US could adopt a one child policy like China or something, but that seems likely to be even more controversial than direct action against climate change. It would never pass, and it wouldn’t be as likely to inspire similar action by other countries. Plus, the whole issue of controlling people’s reproduction is pretty icky. It seems rooted in selfishness (obviously I don’t want to be one of the people who doesn’t exist, I just want other people to go away so I don’t have to change my consumption habits), and has a history associated with racism, etc…

Edit: I see more posts have been written since I started writing this. Apologies for any redundancy.


----------



## LostHighway

Tempting as other subjects may be they aren't really germane to covid and I'd prefer to see the KKF forums remain at least relatively nonpolitical. On other forums I've occasionally found myself exposed to attitudes and points of view that kind of ruined my ability to look upon their authors in a kindly light and I'd rather that not happen here. I'm happy to talk politics and policy with at least some people here in PMs.


----------



## tcmx3

LostHighway said:


> Tempting as other subjects may be they aren't really germane to covid and I'd prefer to see the* KKF forums remain at least relatively nonpolitical*. On other forums I've occasionally found myself exposed to attitudes and points of view that kind of ruined my ability to look upon their authors in a kindly light and I'd rather that not happen here. I'm happy to talk politics and policy with at least some people here in PMs.



I appreciate that we dont want to start calling each other mean names but COVID cannot be discussed without some level of politics.

if we consider the 600+ thousand deaths here in the US, it is exceptionally germane to point out that the demographics of those deaths are disproportionately poor, minority and/or elderly, and that when people are resistant to doing things it is because they perceive who is dying and how many of them are dying as an acceptable cost. but even just pointing this factually true statement out is "political" if you dont like it.  

furthermore we've definitely seen that dynamic play out in who and what is getting moderated. there is a lot more tolerance if whatever you post gets checked by a mod who agrees with what youre saying.


----------



## ian

I think the moderators are lovely and generous human beings with infinite tolerance who have been wonderfully respectful of our arguments in this thread, and who deserve all the knives, all the stones, and all the physical favors in the world.


----------



## Barmoley

Totally agree, hats off to the moderators for being tolerant and understanding to all the nonsense and political discussion in this thread, from gun control to applauding and welcoming government creation of laws that benefit majority against small vocal minorities. Much of what was discussed in the last bunch of pages has nothing to do with COVID, is not backed up by any data and is clearly political. To complain about moderation in this thread is just unfair.


----------



## tcmx3

Barmoley said:


> Totally agree, hats off to the moderators for being tolerant and understanding to all the nonsense and political discussion in this thread, from gun control to applauding and welcoming government creation of laws that benefit majority against small vocal minorities. Much of what was discussed in the last bunch of pages has nothing to do with COVID, is not backed up by any data and is clearly political. To complain about moderation in this thread is just unfair.



I get (and probably agree) that some of the discussion has been political, relevance is a matter of opinion and all, but not backed up by data? I dont understand that comment at all; considerable empirical evidence was posted and discussed. in fact, the data around that one is a lot more clear than some of the data around covid...


----------



## Barmoley

It's not even a discussion really, just 5 or so people congratulating each other on how socially responsible and enlightened they are while suggesting that an average person is an idiot and that minorities should suffer for the good of the majority. All this intermingled with suggestions of covering all deserts with solar to solve energy problems and lowering population to 1-2 billion sprinkled with suggestions of Australia style gun control in the US. Discussing anything with such people is pointless since they believe they are smarter and somehow better than the rest and also believe they know what is best for all. 

I was curious about the suicide statement though as it sounded odd to me, so I decided to look that up. 

Take a look at this for example Deaths by suicide over time - Australian Institute of Health and Welfare

You'll notice that suicide rates go in cycles. Gun reforms in Australia started in 1987 and the major reforms and buy back happened in 1996-97. Looking at the graph you might say that suicide rates have gone down after these events especially after 1997, not clear after 1987, but they are back on the rise, so was this due to the gun control measures or other socioeconomic event. Not clear and definitely not a fact like some want us to believe.

In any case I don't think this is the place to discuss gun control in the US and I applaud to the moderators on being tolerant in this thread.


----------



## tcmx3

Barmoley said:


> It's not even a discussion really, just 5 or so people congratulating each other on how socially responsible and enlightened they are while suggesting that an average person is an idiot and that minorities should suffer for the good of the majority. All this intermingled with suggestions of covering all deserts with solar to solve energy problems and lowering population to 1-2 billion sprinkled with suggestions of Australia style gun control in the US. Discussing anything with such people is pointless since they believe they are smarter and somehow better than the rest and also believe they know what is best for all.



that's a really_ interesting_ way to frame people suggesting that we do something that has been demonstrated empirically to work!


----------



## daveb

Lowering the population has been empirically proven to do what?

Pet peeve in real life - people convinced (and trying to convince others) that their opinions are fact. It does cross over to here a bit.


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> Lowering the population has been empirically proven to do what?



not what I was talking about.

just in case anyone else was confused I was not talking about the population question. I really dont understand how this could be inferred from what I said either but Id rather be explicit about it than allow for continued confusion.


----------



## daveb

This sub for Covid discussions was created in response to our users wanting to hear about covid experiences from other users around the world.


It was stated up-front that this would not be a place to allocate "blame" for the outbreak(s). And like elsewhere in forum, personal attacks on other members would not be tolerated.

The mods have been lightheaded in this forum as it's a common interest we all share.


----------



## gregfisk

tcmx3 said:


> not what I was talking about.
> 
> just in case anyone else was confused I was not talking about the population question. I really dont understand how this could be inferred from what I said either but Id rather be explicit about it than allow for continued confusion.



fwiw, I understood what you were saying.


----------



## daveb

I


tcmx3 said:


> not what I was talking about.
> 
> just in case anyone else was confused I was not talking about the population question. I really dont understand how this could be inferred from what I said either but Id rather be explicit about it than allow for continued confusion.



Before you suffer too much righteous indignation, you might consider that your chain has just been yanked.


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> I
> 
> 
> Before you suffer too much righteous indignation, you might consider that your chain has just been yanked.



I dunno man twice in about as many days, at least from appearances, you have posted complete misinterpretations of what someone was saying. you could throw in a smiley face or something so we know. if they were both jokes, well I guess it just went over my head or something, because it sure doesnt seem like your joking to me  .


----------



## sansho

daveb said:


> Lowering the population has been *empirically proven* to do what?
> 
> Pet peeve in real life - people convinced (and trying to convince others) that their opinions are fact. It does cross over to here a bit.



assuming this "question" is directed at me --
i never spoke of empirical evidence (much less proof) because there is none. aside from, say, aging population in china. hence them backpedaling their population control strategy to a three child policy now, haha

no need for passive aggression. i hope we can be friends and share opinions without undue reproach. that's why i come to places like these.

i seem to have touched a nerve with the overpopulation comment, so i won't bore anyone with more of my thoughts on the subject.



Barmoley said:


> It's not even a discussion really, just 5 or so people congratulating each other on how socially responsible and enlightened they are while suggesting that an average person is an idiot and that minorities should suffer for the good of the majority. All this intermingled with suggestions of covering all deserts with solar to solve energy problems and lowering population to 1-2 billion sprinkled with suggestions of Australia style gun control in the US. Discussing anything with such people is pointless since they believe they are smarter and somehow better than the rest and also believe they know what is best for all.



i see what you're saying, but i hope you can also see that you sound like a bit of a haughty know-it-all yourself in this rant. no worries though. it happens to everyone. i'm like that sometimes, too.


----------



## sansho

general comment -- i'm pretty impressed overall with the matureness of the discussion here compared to other places i've been.



ian said:


> Hmm, a “tool” is something you use to accomplish a task, though. What tasks do you usually accomplish with an assault rifle? I can see the tool argument for a handgun in an urban setting (even though I personally think it would make my home more dangerous, not less) and for a rifle more generally. Maybe if you replace tool with toy that logic would apply to other weapons, but “toy” makes the argument less convincing.



i will naïvely assume this is an actual question. 

there is a lot of overlap between tool and toy, and it's situational as well. i buy a lot of hand tools (including fancy ratchets and socketry items) that i don't strictly need because it's a hobby.

i personally use assault weapons for target shooting, plinking, hunting, and pest control. practically speaking, i appreciate assault-style features for their convenience and performance. i actually rarely use handguns and wouldn't mind selling mine.

if you are upset that people die so that people like me can enjoy such a thing in a hobbyist capacity, i understand and respect that. i think that's an oversimplification, but arguably essentially true.


----------



## ian

sansho said:


> general comment -- i'm pretty impressed overall with the matureness of the discussion here compared to other places i've been.
> 
> 
> 
> i will naïvely assume this is an actual question.
> 
> there is a lot of overlap between tool and toy, and it's situational as well. i buy a lot of hand tools (including fancy ratchets and socketry items) that i don't strictly need because it's a hobby.
> 
> i personally use assault weapons for target shooting, plinking, hunting, and pest control. practically speaking, i appreciate assault-style features for their convenience and performance. i actually rarely use handguns and wouldn't mind selling mine.
> 
> if you are upset that people die so that people like me can enjoy such a thing in a hobbyist capacity, i understand and respect that. i think that's an oversimplification, but arguably essentially true.



That’s a well constructed response, I appreciate it. I’ll allow that I might feel differently about all this if guns were a positive part of my daily life, but from my theoretical chair the negatives outweigh the positives. Any kind of balancing of such things is certainly a value judgement, though, so I can understand others coming to a different conclusion, even if I strongly object.


----------



## Jovidah

Kinda gave up on this thread a while ago since it's a bit of a waste of limited energy... but I figured I'd add a few points:

-Bringing up the idea to limit population in a discussion on COVID is rather weak. COVID mostly takes older and weaker people out of the population, usually already beyond the breeding age. Thus it won't put a dent into the population. If you want a disease that really cuts down on population growth, look at AIDS, which hits exactly the people who are doing the breeding, and gets transferred across generations, thereby further reducing their breeding potential.
For what it's worth, in general diseases have usually been rather weak at limiting population, with a handful of exceptions like the plague and other heavy hitters when introduced to a population with 0 immunity. Traditionally the most effective means to reduce population is plain old simple mass starvation.

-In the last year and a half I often saw it being reassuringly mentioned that only people with comorbidities are at risk. I'm not sure people realize that more than 50% of the US population is in at least one of the comorbidity categories.

-I see a lot of debate about 'which sources to trust' / how to interpret the science. When it comes to regular media... regardless of it's political background, I'd say "don't acsribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence". While there's no doubt some 'selectiveness' and bias in what gets reported by who and what's not, and how it's presented, the sad reality is that across the journalistic spectrum frankly almost no one has even the slightest clue how to read scientific articles, how to interpret them, and what is written in them. This isn't new; this has been a problem long before COVID became a thing and people suddenly started taking an interest in scientific literature.

-A major problem plagueing pretty much all research about 'population effects' is that they're non-experimental. Meaning you have a lot of other variables polluting the data. This comes into play when comparing countries, states, but also different periods in time. So presenting almost anything coming out of a non-experimental study as fact - no matter how much statistics you throw at it - is always going to be problematic at best. It's just that in some situations we simply don't have any alternative.
A good example is for example comparing data of now to last summer. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that people's behavior this summer is vastly different to the behavior last summer; people are pretty much 'done' with COVID, most of the fear is gone, and people behaving different accordingly. How much of a difference does that make when you try to compare the effectiveness of vaccines? We don't know. No one knows.
Similar problem when comparing regions or countries. It's really hard to say what effect different policies have when other factors such as population density might either magnify, dampen, or completely reverse the result.

-The best 'data' we have is still the testing done on vaccines and what not in their preliminary phases simply because they are at least properly done randomized double-blind studies with control groups and large enough sample sizes, thereby cutting out a lot of the pollution. If you dig around enough you should find most of these at the medical authorities.

-I hate to say this since it sounds arrogant, but trying to interpret statistical analysis for a layperson without any training in the matter is dubious at best. Even within the scientific community many people doing it aren't necessarily all that good at it, and there's often a lot of caveats and limitations to the data and how you can interpret it and how you can externalize it. This also comes back to the second point, where most 'normal media' frankly doesn't have a clue about statistics and research, so they're unable to critically reflect upon what they're reading. It's very easy to make a statistical analysis that looks good to the average person, has awesome significance values, yet is completely meaningless simply because of flaws in the design. Again, this doesn't have to be on purpose; it can simply be an oversight, or due to a limitation that's impossible to avoid simply because the research cannot be done in an experimental fashion.

-Just because I saw it mentioned once and it's my pet peeve... Statistically significant means something very different than what it means in daily language (where it's treated as a 'noticably large effect'). When something is statistically significant, this means that 'the chances of this result happening to random chance, when following the normal bell curve distribution, are lower than the arbitrary cutoff treshold we picked'. It says nothing about the effect size.
Due to how this is calculated, even the smallest effect becomes statistically significant when sample sizes get larger, just like lower sample size will lead to statistical insignificance no matter what. The usual measure of effect size tends to be R², and is often more informative in how important a variable is.
But when the research isn't experimental there's a ton of other hurdles that tend to muck things up here.

-Because there's so many limitations with a lot of the research, using any single one study to make a point is extremely problematic. For all you know 21 research groups researched the same thing with a P<0.05 treshhold, and the one that actually got a positive result published it, while the others just moved on because they had nothing to publish. This is why stuff needs to be reviewed within the field and why results need to be corroborated. Academical consensus takes time, and doesn't come from one article or one experiment.
Just looking around to find a random article that might agree with what you're trying to say might be succesful if you're just trying to work your way through a bachelor's thesis in the laziest way possible, but it's not good science. Picking and choosing articles à la carte is just not how you get to the truth.


----------



## daveb

The only consistent conclusion of all of the studies is a recommendation that someone should pay the author to do more studies.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Jeeez just a few days this thread got fueled.


----------



## sansho

Jovidah said:


> -Bringing up the idea to limit population in a discussion on COVID is rather weak. COVID mostly takes older and weaker people out of the population, usually already beyond the breeding age. Thus it won't put a dent into the population. If you want a disease that really cuts down on population growth, look at AIDS, which hits exactly the people who are doing the breeding, and gets transferred across generations, thereby further reducing their breeding potential.
> For what it's worth, in general diseases have usually been rather weak at limiting population, with a handful of exceptions like the plague and other heavy hitters when introduced to a population with 0 immunity. Traditionally the most effective means to reduce population is plain old simple mass starvation.



i agree with everything you said in your post, but CoViD as a population control mechanism isn't what i was talking about at all.


----------



## Jovidah

daveb said:


> The only consistent conclusion of all of the studies is a recommendation that someone should pay the author to do more studies.


I know it's a joke but gonna respond anyway... 

While it's true that the 'further investigation of this subject is needed'-cliché is still very much alive, the necessity for money is usually not so much for researchers. That's just marginal cost, and often already covered by a faculty position when it's someone from a university. On top of that there's a sizable amount of cheap slave labor in most education institutions in the form of phd candidates, graduates, etc. When it comes to human studies the main cost is in the money required to incentivize large enough groups of people essentially play guinea pig to get a sizable and representable sample size.
Of course this varies a lot per field. When you're doing experimental physics research there's often a far higher capital requirement for 'stuff'. Experimental fusion reactors and particle colliders don't exactly grow on trees. 

Same issue for developing medicine and vaccines. The production cost is often trivial. Where most of the money goes is in the piles of dead monkeys and all the human test subjects required to get a drug certified. To make matters worse, the few drugs that actually become marketable also have to cover all the times this process fails to result in a profitable drug or treatment.


----------



## Jovidah

sansho said:


> i agree with everything you said in your post, but CoViD as a population control mechanism isn't what i was talking about at all.


Fair, but even if for the sake of argument you ignore the question of whether our current population is actually unsustainable or not, and to which extent we can increase the carrying capacity of our planet through science and expanse beyond Earth... I don't think a proposal to downsize our current population to one that is only 1/3 of the current size has any answers that are practical or ethical. 
Interesting thought experiment maybe, and I agree that it might solve a good amount of our environmental problems, but unless there's a significant global nuclear exchange I just don't see this happening.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Interested to know how other places are doing
with this Delta variety. We were done with deaths for quite a while. Now almost all deaths
are older folks with medical conditions. Brought in 200 medical person's to help.

Governor just shutdown large gatherings indoors & outdoors. Couple days ago he asked tourist not to visit Hawaii now. Schools are open some cases in schools but trace testing
is good they want to stay open, I don't blame
them.

Governor's actions will put more people out of work. Many had gotten back to jobs. It seemed like life getting back to normal. All the mainland tourist had to prove vaccine.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Expanse beyond Earth not even a factor with population. The cost to put anything in Space is prohibitive. This isn't science fiction.
Our own solar system Mars may support a few at great cost.

Outer solar systems with planets maybe in goldilocks zone. Unmanned light sail probes may get there in centuries. 

We have to take care of this planet. Spaceship Earth is our home.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Sorry just looked it up for anyone who cares.
Fastest spacecraft New Horizons unmanned probe passed Pluto in July 2015 at 56,628 km/h or 35,187 mph. At that speed would take probe about 26 million years to reach Kepler-4526 from Earth. Our blue marble tilted on its axis on elliptical orbit around the Sun. Spinning 
Every 24 hours from night into day. Unless very far north or south because of tilt long days or night depending on season.

In our lifetime amazing diversity of life. Wild animals example big cats are faced with extinction in the wild. Fortunately scientist 
who care are fighting back. All of this is human population expanding into wild animal territory.

Just 50+ years ago steel hull boats with explosive harpoons were wiping out the whales
Just a second in time. A great testimony to the
Intelligence of Homo Sapiens.

Again apologize for long winded post not uncommon at all last week on this thread.
Just emphasize importance of taking care
of our planet it's not just about us two legged hominids & how we feed ourselves.


----------



## EricEricEric

It’s so funny because it’s so sad and true

The virus will forever mutate and never go away….





daveb said:


> And now for a little levity, something completely different:
> 
> 
> ABBOTT AND COSTELLO’S ‘WHO’S BEEN VACCINATED?’
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bud: ‘You can’t come in here!’
> Lou: ‘Why not?’
> Bud: ‘Well because you’re unvaccinated.’
> Lou: ‘But I’m not sick.’
> Bud: ‘It doesn’t matter.’
> Lou: ‘Well, why does that guy get to go in?’
> Bud: ‘Because he’s vaccinated.’
> Lou: ‘But he’s sick!’
> Bud: ‘It’s alright. Everyone in here is vaccinated.’
> Lou: ‘Wait a minute. Are you saying everyone in there is vaccinated?’
> Bud: ‘Yes.’
> Lou: ‘So then why can’t I go in there if everyone is vaccinated?’
> Bud: ‘Because you’ll make them sick.’
> Lou: ‘How will I make them sick if I’m NOT sick and they’re vaccinated.’
> Bud: ‘Because you’re unvaccinated.’
> Lou: ‘But they’re vaccinated.’
> Bud: ‘But they can still get sick.’
> Lou: ‘So what the heck does the vaccine do?’
> Bud: ‘It vaccinates.’
> Lou: ‘So vaccinated people can’t spread covid?’
> Bud: ‘Oh no. They can spread covid just as easily as an unvaccinated person.’
> Lou: ‘I don’t even know what I’m saying anymore. Look. I’m not sick.
> Bud: ‘Ok.’
> Lou: ‘And the guy you let in IS sick.’
> Bud: ‘That’s right.’
> Lou: ‘And everybody in there can still get sick even though they’re vaccinated.’
> Bud: ‘Certainly.’
> Lou: ‘So why can’t I go in again?’
> Bud: ‘Because you’re unvaccinated.’
> Lou: ‘I’m not asking who’s vaccinated or not!’
> Bud: ‘I’m just telling you how it is.’
> Lou: ‘Nevermind. I’ll just put on my mask.’
> Bud: ‘That’s fine.’
> Lou: ‘Now I can go in?’
> Bud: ‘Absolutely not?’
> Lou: ‘But I have a mask!’
> Bud: ‘Doesn’t matter.’
> Lou: ‘I was able to come in here yesterday with a mask.’
> Bud: ‘I know.’
> Lou: So why can’t I come in here today with a mask? ….If you say ‘because I’m unvaccinated’ again, I’ll break your arm.’
> Bud: ‘Take it easy buddy.’
> Lou: ‘So the mask is no good anymore.’
> Bud: ‘No, it’s still good.’
> Lou: ‘But I can’t come in?’
> Bud: ‘Correct.’
> Lou: ‘Why not?’
> Bud: ‘Because you’re unvaccinated.’
> Lou: ‘But the mask prevents the germs from getting out.’
> Bud: ‘Yes, but people can still catch your germs.’
> Lou: ‘But they’re all vaccinated.’
> Bud: ‘Yes, but they can still get sick.’
> Lou: ‘But I’m not sick!!’
> Bud: ‘You can still get them sick.’
> Lou: ‘So then masks don’t work!’
> Bud: ‘Masks work quite well.’
> Lou: ‘So how in the heck can I get vaccinated people sick if I’m not sick and masks work?’
> Bud: ‘Third base.’
> And...scene...
> Copied from a friend.


----------



## sansho

i'm optimistic about universal vaccines for influenza and coronavirus. or at least broad, predictive, close-to-universal. even if it meant having to get like 6 vaccinations per year for various things, i'd probably be open to that if it meant never getting sick with some bs respiratory infection.


----------



## Luftmensch

Keith Sinclair said:


> Sorry just looked it up for anyone who cares.
> Fastest spacecraft New Horizons unmanned probe passed Pluto in July 2015 at 56,628 km/h or 35,187 mph. At that speed would take probe about 26 million years to reach Kepler-4526 from Earth. Our blue marble tilted on its axis on elliptical orbit around the Sun. Spinning
> Every 24 hours from night into day. Unless very far north or south because of tilt long days or night depending on season.
> 
> In our lifetime amazing diversity of life. Wild animals example big cats are faced with extinction in the wild. Fortunately scientist
> who care are fighting back. All of this is human population expanding into wild animal territory.
> 
> Just 50+ years ago steel hull boats with explosive harpoons were wiping out the whales
> Just a second in time. A great testimony to the
> Intelligence of Homo Sapiens.
> 
> Again apologize for long winded post not uncommon at all last week on this thread.
> Just emphasize importance of taking care
> of our planet it's not just about us two legged hominids & how we feed ourselves.



I care!

Not quite correct... New horizons is extremely fast but I believe the Parker Solar Probe is the fastest spacecraft. - 148km/s. One hundred and forty eight kilometres _per second _

It will be getting faster with more gravity assists from Venus! There was Helios B... it reach 70km/s in 1976. Basically anything to do with the sun requires tremendous speeds!

Then there is Voyager-1. It should hold a special place in our hearts... it is travelling extremely fast - 16.9km/s. More significantly, it was the first spacecraft to reach interstellar space (in mid-late 2012). It is spectacular - a 43 year mission. Old faithful is expected to keep marching on until 2025 when its power reserves will not be sufficient to power any of the instruments.


----------



## Nemo

Luftmensch said:


> Not quite correct... New horizons is extremely fast but I believe the Parker Solar Probe is the fastest spacecraft. - 148km/s. One hundred and forty eight kilometres _per second _


This is still only 0.0005C (one two thousandth the speed of light). It would take this probe around 8000 years to get to the closest star (Proxima Centauri).


----------



## Luftmensch

Nemo said:


> This is still only 0.0005C (one two thousandth the speed of light). It would take this probe around 8000 years to get to the closest star (Proxima Centauri).



True! It underscores the importance of protecting Mothership Earth and her children... 

The scale of space is mind-bogglingly large. It underpins the Fermi paradox. I tend to think that civilisation collapse is a good explanation for the Great Filter. Developing deep technology to span the scales of space likely takes a backseat to putting out fires that advanced civilisation keep inadvertently creating... of course... based on a dataset of N=1! Advanced life might be one of those "flash in the pan" type events. 

Even if in a utopia... I dont know if the physics really support travelling much further than several solar systems within timescales that humans are used to engineering? Reaching the next galaxy seems completely improbable.

On the other hand.... at 148km/s, Sydney to LA would only take 81.4 seconds


----------



## juice

Luftmensch said:


> On the other hand.... at 148km/s, Sydney to LA would only take 81.4 seconds


Sure, but then you'd have BEEN in Sydney, and you'd BE in LA, neither of which are good options...


----------



## M1k3

juice said:


> Sure, but then you'd have BEEN in Sydney, and you'd BE in LA, neither of which are good options...



I get Sydney. But L.A.?


----------



## MarcelNL

Jovidah said:


> I know it's a joke but gonna respond anyway...
> 
> 
> Same issue for developing medicine and vaccines. The production cost is often trivial. Where most of the money goes is in the piles of dead monkeys and all the human test subjects required to get a drug certified. To make matters worse, the few drugs that actually become marketable also have to cover all the times this process fails to result in a profitable drug or treatment.



In the reality of pre-clinical drug development monkeys are not used anywhere near as often as many people think, animal studies are not that costly anyway nor is it common to pay test subjects (as in humans) beyond phase 1. The vast amount of the money spent on clinical development of new drugs is in man hours, paying medics/hospitals for the work involved and paying the manpower hungry beast of quality control (verifying data) and study oversight.


----------



## MarcelNL

what seemed already obvious now appears to be showing in study results;








Covid-19 hospitalization risk doubles with Delta variant, UK study suggests | CNN


A new study adds to growing evidence suggesting that the Delta coronavirus variant is not only highly transmissible, but also more dangerous.




edition.cnn.com





Risk of hospitalization doubles with the delta variant, but more importantly; vaccination is key to protect people and to suppress the faster and higher peak delta will cause. Now that Pfizer/Biontech mRNA vaccine is fully approved you'd think there will be a sharp uptick in vacc rate in the US but the few interviews I saw show folks are simply changing to another reason not to, ranging from the claimed 'magnetising' effect (WOW I did not see that nonsense coming) to the predicted 'long term effects'.

_"Our analysis highlights that in the absence of vaccination, any Delta outbreaks will impose a greater burden on healthcare than an Alpha epidemic," Dr. Anne Presanis, one of the study's lead authors and senior statistician at the University of Cambridge, said in a news release Friday.
"Getting fully vaccinated is crucial for reducing an individual's risk of symptomatic infection with Delta in the first place, and, importantly, of reducing a Delta patient's risk of severe illness and hospital admission," Presanis said.

full article:


DEFINE_ME


_


----------



## Michi

MarcelNL said:


> Now that Pfizer/Biontech mRNA vaccine is fully approved you'd think there will be a sharp uptick in vacc rate in the US but the few interviews I saw show folks are simply changing to another reason not to, ranging from the claimed 'magnetising' effect (WOW I did not see that nonsense coming) to the predicted 'long term effects'.


Keep on dreaming  Once people have made up their mind, it takes an earthquake (or the death of their spouse) to change their mind.


----------



## MarcelNL

yeah I saw some folks being interviewed, the interviewer asked if they changed their mind now the vaccine is fully approved, the responses were clear....'nope'


----------



## juice

MarcelNL said:


> yeah I saw some folks being interviewed, the interviewer asked if they changed their mind now the vaccine is fully approved, the responses were clear....'nope'


"It's not FDA approved" simply moves to "I'm not letting the GOVERNMENT tell me what to put in my body!" (goes off to eat handfuls of horse dewormer tablets)


----------



## Luftmensch

M1k3 said:


> I get Sydney. But L.A.?


----------



## M1k3

Luftmensch said:


> View attachment 140393


Oh, sure. Pick the one from fire season.  Not one from the other 300 some odd days of shorts and tank tops or bikinis, and flip flops weather. Eating our Avocados and Kale.


----------



## daddy yo yo

big_adventure said:


> People are free to not get vaccinated, but *people shouldn't get to endanger others* for their (objectively stupid and bad) decision. No bars, no restaurants, no gyms, no theaters, no clubs, no shops, none of that. No school, no jobs where you share the air with other people, no freaking way.


I agree, "people shouldn't get to endanger others". 

A friend of mine, vaccinated, changed my opinion on vaccines and tests: In my country vaccinated people are freed of getting tested to get entrance to restaurants, bars, concerts, etc.. I doubt that the majority knows that they're only freed of getting tested for a maximum of 270 days (depending on the vaccine; most or at least many people here get vaccinated not because they choose a lower chance of infection or milder consequences once infected but purely out of laziness because they do not want to get tested every 48 hours). After those max. 270 days you need another shot or get tested like all the unvaccinated people. My friend said that because of breakthroughs of the virus among vaccinated people everybody should get tested, irrelevant of the vaccination status. Those vaccinated need not fear, they're "protected" (whatever that means), right?! But those vaccinated can carry the virus and spread it, pass it on to unvaccinated people without knowing. Unvaccinated people usually get tested frequently, the chance of spreading the virus therefore is rather low, because an infection should get detected early. Vaccinated people carrying the virus pass it on, they will probably never even know that they have or had the virus. But still vaccinated people are and were a danger to others.

My friend and myself included, we do not want to say one is better than the other, and who are we to say that vaccines work or do not work, same for tests. We're no experts. But it seems logical to me that frequent testing of all population, vaccinated or not, is the only way to control this sh*t. And that is only true for 1 country, leaving aside international travelling for whatever reason... But as long as there are stupid people out there cheating, choosing not to get tested, faking test results (I have seen this with my own 2 eyes), we're stuck in this sh*t.  And yeah, I am fed up with this sh*t. This is just another divider of society. I have seen friendships and even families break apart because of different opinions on the virus, tests, vaccines, restrictions, and so on... 

And regarding the efficiency of current vaccines: I am not convinced that our current vaccines are the remedy. I really do not think so. But they are what we currently have. We have nothing better at the moment...


----------



## Keith Sinclair

From what I've seen on news some people who have gotten shots can still carry this Delta variety, but symptoms are minor. Even seniors.

Here 95% of hospitalization are non vaccine.
See interviews on local TV with statements like
I'm not going to get vaccine that is the virus they are putting in your body.

The demand for oxygen is critical place that makes it in the Islands can't keep up.

Government just passed law that you have to show proof of vaccine for many places like eating out where you remove your mask. 

Operations agree to temp. check & vac. picture on phone. Nobody wants another shutdown.
That was brutal for Hawaii if things don't get better than a bad month of August with high counts and deaths everyday.


----------



## Luftmensch

M1k3 said:


> Not one from the other 300 some odd days of shorts and tank tops or bikinis, and flip flops weather.








1979
Mask compliance: low
Moustache compliance: high


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Didn't like the short shorts for men era. 

The tight peg leg pants that are too short in style now look stupid.


----------



## LostHighway

Keith Sinclair said:


> Didn't like the short shorts for men era.
> 
> The tight peg leg pants that are too short in style now look stupid.



But the porn star mustache and mullet remain classics


----------



## big_adventure

Keith Sinclair said:


> Didn't like the short shorts for men era.
> 
> The tight peg leg pants that are too short in style now look stupid.



I strongly approve of this message.



LostHighway said:


> But the porn star mustache and mullet remain classics



...and obviously this one too.


----------



## natto

Germany got the 4th wave. Infection rate grew fom below 10 to over 80 in the last weeks. With 60 percent vaccinated 80 is not much, others are up to some 100. The last days the daily increase became lower, so we may reach the top without much trouble. (fingers crossed) This needs some more days to become a reliable trend.

Most schools are open and people return to life. I am astonished. 

Will eat some vegetarian paella in a cafe which supports disabled people to participate the society (german: inklusion). And I never get why vegetarians use names of great dishes when they cook something anything???


----------



## juice

natto said:


> Will eat some vegetarian paella in a cafe which supports disabled people to participate the society (german: inklusion). And I never get why vegetarians use names of great dishes when they cook something anything???


They're trying to trick you into thinking it's food before you eat it.


----------



## sansho

vegetarian food is pretty good. i don't understand these fake recipe names. same with fake meats. if you want to eat meat, just eat some meat. "beyond burger"? i'd probably rather just have a falafel burger-style sandwich. falafel is amazing.

no need to trick people and serve them "beef stroganoff" made with mushrooms and seitan to see if they can "tell the difference". kind of insulting imho. lol


----------



## LostHighway

Until we get more people globally vaccinated, possibly coupled with more effective vaccines, covid variants are just going to keep coming. Delta (B.1.617.2) remains the dominant strain in most of the developed world but Beta (B.1.351) and Gamma (P.1) are still circulating, although apparently less transmissible than Delta. Lambda (C.37) and Mu (B.1.621) started appearing in Europe and North America in the last few months. There are indications that all of these variants have some impact on immunity and most, possibly all, present the potential for greater severity of illness than the original Alpha strain.
Relaxing safeguards at this juncture is madness. At least in the USA we need more testing, better data tracking, and a continued push to get more people vaccinated. Personally, I have zero issues with mask mandates (government or private) AND vaccine verification* to access public transport and public or private facilities. I also don't think hard travel restrictions or lock-downs should be off the table should things get significantly worse.

*IMO vaccine verification in the US is woefully inadequate both in terms of actually checking and not easily counterfeitable cards. 

I don't want to get off topic on to a debate about vegetarianism but I'm happy to take up this subject in another thread. I have no problem with meat consumption, per se, but the quantity of meat consumption (and production) in much of the even semi-developed/semi-affluent world is IMO bat excrement level crazy.


----------



## MarcelNL

that 4th wave is occurring globally, and has been on the rise in many countries for something like over a month now. 
Now with the holiday seasonal 'interaction' mostly over we'll see what it did this year, last year brought us a nice Tsunami of new cases.

Right now our national health system is looking at backlogs of about a year on top of the usual 6 months or so for most types of surgery, get put on the list today and have surgery somewhere in 2023 if things stabilize the more folks get vaccinated the less will end up in hospitals adding more time to this truly horrific backlog.


----------



## big_adventure

Well, France putting in relatively strict vaccine requirements seems to be working for the moment. Vax rate is pretty high and getting higher, simply because you have to be vax'd to do anything. Vax rate had stagnated in early summer, but simply putting in a mandate put rockets on that. We peaked wave 4 and are on the way back down now, in number of cases, hospital admissions, ICU stays and deaths. 3rd shot for over 65 years old is authorized and available freely and I would imagine that it'll be open to everyone within a month or so.


----------



## MarcelNL

I only wish our Gov't had the balls to make near totalitarian decisions like France did...


----------



## big_adventure

LostHighway said:


> Until we get more people globally vaccinated, possibly coupled with more effective vaccines, covid variants are just going to keep coming. Delta (B.1.617.2) remains the dominant strain in most of the developed world but Beta (B.1.351) and Gamma (P.1) are still circulating, although apparently less transmissible than Delta. Lambda (C.37) and Mu (B.1.621) started appearing in Europe and North America in the last few months. There are indications that all of these variants have some impact on immunity and most, possibly all, present the potential for greater severity of illness than the original Alpha strain.
> Relaxing safeguards at this juncture is madness. At least in the USA we need more testing, better data tracking, and a continued push to get more people vaccinated. Personally, I have zero issues with mask mandates (government or private) AND vaccine verification* to access public transport and public or private facilities. I also don't think hard travel restrictions or lock-downs should be off the table should things get significantly worse.
> 
> *IMO vaccine verification in the US is woefully inadequate both in terms of actually checking and not easily counterfeitable cards.



Couldn't agree more with all of this. Especially the vaccination cards in the US - such a joke. Here, every test or vaccination you get, you also get an official doc with a scannable QR code validating the result. 



LostHighway said:


> I don't want to get off topic on to a debate about vegetarianism but I'm happy to take up this subject in another thread. I have no problem with meat consumption, per se, but the quantity of meat consumption (and production) in much of the even semi-developed/semi-affluent world is IMO bat excrement level crazy.



The ridiculous amount of environmental damage and animal cruelty that come from farming due to the "expectation" that every meal needs meat is disgusting.



AT5760 said:


> Not to derail, but I totally agree with @sansho 's comment above about vegetarian food. It's hard to find vegetarian food in restaurants that doesn't have some type of fake "meat." Why not let the veggies shine?



Fake meat should be niche, not mainstream I think. That said, things like seitan and tofu aren't fake meat, they are just sources of protein in a vegetarian/vegan diet. 



MarcelNL said:


> I only wish our Gov't had the balls to make near totalitarian decisions like France did...



Yeah, it was a ballsy move, but it's definitely paying off so far. Wanna go to a restaurant? Scan. Want to go to a bar? Scan (though to be fair, lots of small bars are forgetting this step). Go to a museum or a gym? Scan. Wanna work in contact with the public? Scan. Shopping mall? Scan. Everyone's used to it, the app they made is decent enough and keeps all of your test and vax certificates, and you can deactivate it so that it doesn't track you (which would be a no-no here).


----------



## MarcelNL

sort-of related but still OT; We all can contribute to the difference, whether it is by getting vaccinated or by stopping to buy bio-industry food. We changed our food shopping dramatically over the past few years, with a serious preference for organic food. We made the decision not buying prepared food, no industrial food and anything with a high fat content has to be organic. Luckily the choices are made easier by the decreasing quality of much of the food found grocery stores.

Veggie food is delicious, the problem is that some folks seem to think the accomplishment is to prepare a 'wholesome meal' and mistake high in nutritional values for great taste.


----------



## Barmoley

I am not a fan of New York Times in general, but I think this opinion piece is reasonable enough. It would also be good if CDC continued to track vaccinated people who test positive and recovered people who test positive or get sick. CDC stopped tracking positive cases of vaccinated and doesn't do any data gathering of recovered that get positive results or get sick. There is very little publicly available data on how good natural immunity is. It is also not clear how good is the immunity of fully vaccinated who also recovered. I understand that they have limited resources and studying natural immunity is not a priority since we want to vaccinate as many as possible, but you can't use science as your guide when you ignore a huge portion of data that should be easy to collect and that would give us a fuller, more correct picture. This would especially be helpful given that vaccines are limited in the world and we want to vaccinate the world not just some parts of it in order to stop the pandemic and lower the number of new variants.


----------



## big_adventure

In the US, health and disease tracking is state-by-state. 

An argument could be made that such things are stupid, but the 10th amendment means that's where it's going to stay for now; especially as certain states seem really inclined to shoot themselves in the foot as violently and as often as possible. 

Various agencies, including but not limited to, the CDC collect data from the states for the agencies own purposes, however, they are at the mercy of the states themselves as to what information they receive. The CDC by themselves cannot _dictate_ to the states or to hospitals or anyone else what information they should be receiving. They can publish guidelines, but they have literally zero enforcement power.


----------



## Barmoley

big_adventure said:


> In the US, health and disease tracking is state-by-state.
> 
> An argument could be made that such things are stupid, but the 10th amendment means that's where it's going to stay for now; especially as certain states seem really inclined to shoot themselves in the foot as violently and as often as possible.
> 
> Various agencies, including but not limited to, the CDC collect data from the states for the agencies own purposes, however, they are at the mercy of the states themselves as to what information they receive. The CDC by themselves cannot _dictate_ to the states or to hospitals or anyone else what information they should be receiving. They can publish guidelines, but they have literally zero enforcement power.


Fair enough, I am in California, so only speak of it. CA has a huge population, so even if data was only collected here we would have enough to have a clearer picture of what is going on and to make better decisions.


----------



## Barmoley

big_adventure said:


> As fair as one can be,



We need data, otherwise many wrong conclusions could be made. For example, CA might be doing better now because it was one of the worse in January/February and natural immunity provides superior protection against Delta. We don't know because there is no data collected or studies made. Could be because levels of vaccines are higher in CA, could be the combination of the two, which is most likely. Could be masks.... Bottom line we need more data. Politics unfortunately play a huge role, so we don't get the proper science we need.


----------



## parbaked

CA is large and diverse. It was significantly worse in LA county than the Bay Area for example. It doesn’t feel like Delta has impacted SF much as most people are masked and vaccinated.


----------



## Barmoley

Right now it does. This didn't seem to be the case earlier, so more data is needed. It's just too easy to make wrong conclusions based on what seems to make sense or find patterns where there aren't any. Proper science needs to be done, but we mostly get science that is needed to prove the narrative or political agenda. Science should not work like this, it should be independent of politics, but it isn't and it is getting worse. Unfortunately, policies are made based on incomplete picture. For example, should the 3 shot be given to fully vaccinated or would it be better to send it to countries that don't have enough vaccines. Should recovered people be vaccinated? If they should be should they receive 2 shots, or would one be enough and extras should be sent to places that need vaccines? We all have our opinions, but we need hard science and that takes time and data, but data is not being collected. It is a global pandemic, so it seems like if we want to get it under control we need to have world wide solutions. Otherwise we'll potentially be doing booster after booster which works well for the pharmaceuticals, but is it the best course of action? I have no idea, I am not a professional in the field so that is fine, but it seems like the professionals are as clueless, and that is frightening.


----------



## MarcelNL

I don't know if the data is not collected, I just saw an Israeli doctor give a pretty solid (to me) explanation for their current round of booster shots. They noticed that the more recently vaccinated folks were less susceptible to getting Covid (in a nutshell).


----------



## LostHighway

MarcelNL said:


> I don't know if the data is not collected, I just saw an Israeli doctor give a pretty solid (to me) explanation for their current round of booster shots. They noticed that the more recently vaccinated folks were less susceptible to getting Covid (in a nutshell).



I the the extremely balkanized nature of American healthcare means the data collection is quite spotty. The US stopped recording breakthrough cases in May and then restarted, I believe in August. To my knowledge typing covid by strain is not being done on anything resembling a routine basis in the US but it clearly is happening, at least to a degree, in some states (California for one). Several states have been playing politics with the publicly released data - Cuomo in NY hiding nursing home deaths and Florida engaging is several forms of obfuscation.
Some recent US data here.



I'm always up to discuss food policy and personal choices but not in this thread.


----------



## big_adventure

parbaked said:


> CA is large and diverse. It was significantly worse in LA county than the Bay Area for example. It doesn’t feel like Delta has impacted SF much as most people are masked and vaccinated.



SF is well over 85% vaccinated, it's the highest rate of any city in the US. Of COURSE it's the least affected. It makes sense, that's actually science.  



Barmoley said:


> We need data, otherwise many wrong conclusions could be made. For example, CA might be doing better now because it was one of the worse in January/February and natural immunity provides superior protection against Delta. We don't know because there is no data collected or studies made. Could be because levels of vaccines are higher in CA, could be the combination of the two, which is most likely. Could be masks.... Bottom line we need more data. Politics unfortunately play a huge role, so we don't get the proper science we need.



We HAVE data. The data isn't perfect, but, even in the US, in states where vaccination is more advanced, there are fewer cases. The correlation approaches 1. That's the literal definition of data, and of observational science. We also have a ton of data in countries who have better and more centralized data collection and less politicized reporting, and those all, 100% of them, confirm that being vaccinated;

1. Has no appreciable, statistically significant downsides. Being tired for a few days doesn't count as a significant downside, and having a 1 in a million anaphyalxis rate doesn't either.
2. Massively reduces Covid infection rates, even for variants.
3. Massively reduces serious infection rates, in the case of a "breakthrough," again, even for variants.
4. The only way we're going to stop proliferation of variants is to push vax levels high enough to stop massive spread - which contributes to viable variants forming.

Bottom line, we don't need any more data at all to validate the effectiveness of the vaccines. Anyone not getting one at this point for any reason like that is just being selfish. There are other reasons that could impact this, but anyone doubting the effectiveness or the safety is being obtuse.


----------



## Barmoley

Has anyone seen data on break through cases for recovered or recovered and vaccinated? There are a few non peer reviewed articles that claim that natural immunity from previous non delta infection seems to be stronger against Delta than 2 doses of Pfizer, but I haven't seen the data they base it on, these are also not peer reviewed yet... It would also be interesting to know how this compares to recovered with 1 and 2 shots. 

The Israeli reason for the third shot seems to make sense, but at least the explanation I've read have a lot of issues with them. For one people vaccinated earlier were older and with health issues, so it stands to reason they would have more break through cases or in general would be less protected. Israeli study only talks about Pfizer. It doesn't take into account people with immunity due to recovery vs vaccination. There is also another Israeli study that says natural immunity is stronger against Delta than two shots of Pfizer.

Many people concentrate on vaccines vs no vaccines. We have plenty of data that proves that vaccines work very well against all known variants. People also concentrate on infections of vaccinated, but even that is not the concern we care more about serious illness and death and vaccines prevent that extremely well. The data we lack is the data we need to make decisions about boosters and how to best distribute limited number of vaccine dosages.


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## LostHighway

I have taken the liberty of starting a new food/agriculture thread and quoted the @tgfencer post in its entirety.


----------



## Barmoley

LostHighway said:


> I have taken the liberty of starting a new food/agriculture thread and quoted the @tgfencer post in its entirety.


Thank you. Much appreciated.

Some people just can't help themselves they have to bundle all their believes into covid discussions and then can't understand why people that agree with them about covid don't want to associate with them in general and are pushed away. It's not all or nothing, you can agree on some issues and disagree on others. Lazy thinking, if a person believes A then B and C just have to be true even if A,B, and C are not at all related to each other.


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## ian

The alphabet is fake news.

Otherwise, I agree.


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## tgfencer

LostHighway said:


> I have taken the liberty of starting a new food/agriculture thread and quoted the @tgfencer post in its entirety.



Sorry for the detour folks.


----------



## LostHighway

Barmoley said:


> Thank you. Much appreciated.
> 
> Some people just can't help themselves they have to bundle all their believes into covid discussions and then can't understand why people that agree with them about covid don't want to associate with them in general and are pushed away. It's not all or nothing, you can agree on some issues and disagree on others. Lazy thinking, if a person believes A then B and C just have to be true even if A,B, and C are not at all related to each other.



At least in the USA it increasingly seems like we can't talk about anything without it being political. Given the covid related demonstrations in France and Australia maybe that is true everywhere. I guess I need to do more reading on the Spanish flu and polio epidemics to see how new this phenomena may be.

I'm not naive enough to think that conversations about food don't also have the potential to become polarizing but I'm hopeful that we can have a respectful discussion that is at least relatively fact based.


----------



## juice

LostHighway said:


> Given the covid related demonstrations in France and Australia maybe that is true everywhere.


Completely disproportionate news coverage though (as news coverage tends to be, by its very nature) - no idea about the French one but the one here, in overall terms, was pretty small, but they are dramatic.

The bigger worry here is people deciding they've just had enough and doing what they want rather than following the rules that got us out of it last time. Can't put that on the news as it's not one big discrete event, but it's doing a lot more damage.


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## big_adventure

LostHighway said:


> Given the covid related demonstrations in France and Australia maybe that is true everywhere.



The French ones are pretty... let's call them unimportant. But nobody ever bought a newspaper that said "Everything is great, don't read me" on the front, so one has to approach this kind of thing with a bit of a filter, especially internationally.

The government here put in pretty strict mandates that cover large segments of work and leisure. French people, by their nature, complain and ***** about their system more than almost anyone in the world. It's a national pastime. But, after the complaining, and also in parallel with it, people who had been hesitating, or lazy, or waiting sucked it up and started getting vax'ed - because they didn't really have a choice. There's still a decent way to go, but the progress is blazingly clear. 15% higher vax rate means 15% logarithmic reduction in hospitalization rates and positive tests. Vaccines work. Get them. Get back to living. If you don't want to, fine, nobody will come to your house and stab you with a needle, but you can't endanger everyone else in places where people congregate.


----------



## Bill13

A nice article examining how there was a lack of interest in trying to determine what the collateral damage would be from lock downs and other poorly thought through decisions.

Editor's Note - On the Catastrophic Misapplication of the Precautionary Principle - Collateral Global


----------



## ian

Bill13 said:


> A nice article examining how there was a lack of interest in trying to determine what the collateral damage would be from lock downs and other poorly thought through decisions.
> 
> Editor's Note - On the Catastrophic Misapplication of the Precautionary Principle - Collateral Global



To be fair, this is essentially just an opinion post saying "people didn't weigh the collateral damage enough", without much further examination. Fair enough! Cost/benefit discussions are always important.


----------



## LostHighway

Bill13 said:


> A nice article examining how there was a lack of interest in trying to determine what the collateral damage would be from lock downs and other poorly thought through decisions.
> 
> Editor's Note - On the Catastrophic Misapplication of the Precautionary Principle - Collateral Global



The author of this piece is something of a hired gun for libertarian anti-mask, anti-vaccine passport, and anti-closure groups having served as an expert witness for Florida's anti-mask/anti-closure stance as well as for a group challenging Manitoba's covid restrictions. He was also an advocate for the largely discredited and never widely accepted herd immunity idea. You can always find "experts" who will support fringe positions - some are probably motivated by political ideology, some by hubris, some by money, and others may be just stupid (a PhD or MD is no guarantee to the contrary IME).
When I worked on research on heavy metals contamination in urban soils the lead industry had a collection of pet experts they trotted out to attack researchers and research indicating that the dangers, especially for infants and pre-school age children, were understated. They were particularly vicious in their attacks on Dr. Herbert Needleman*. Time and further research has vindicated Needleman's work but there have been no mea culpas from the lead industries captive scientists. If there is a hell I trust there is a special place for them.

*These were not collegial academic disagreements, they were out to ruin him.


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## MarcelNL

Academia does not take prisoners, nor do they do apologies...at best an articles or two get pulled...


----------



## ian

MarcelNL said:


> Academia does not take prisoners, nor do they do apologies...at best an articles or two get pulled...



I'm not really sure what you're saying here. What is it that you want from academia?

Edit: or maybe this was in response to this part of @LostHighway's response:



LostHighway said:


> They were particularly vicious in their attacks on Dr. Herbert Needleman*. Time and further research has vindicated Needleman's work but there have been no mea culpas from the lead industries captive scientists. If there is a hell I trust there is a special place for them.



In that case, maybe we can replace Academia with "people paid lots of money by the lead industry."


----------



## big_adventure

LostHighway said:


> The author of this piece is something of a hired gun for libertarian anti-mask, anti-vaccine passport, and anti-closure groups having served as an expert witness for Florida's anti-mask/anti-closure stance as well as for a group challenging Manitoba's covid restrictions. He was also an advocate for the largely discredited and never widely accepted herd immunity idea. You can always find "experts" who will support fringe positions - some are probably motivated by political ideology, some by hubris, some by money, and others may be just stupid (a PhD or MD is no guarantee to the contrary IME).
> When I worked on research on heavy metals contamination in urban soils the lead industry had a collection of pet experts they trotted out to attack researchers and research indicating that the dangers, especially for infants and pre-school age children, were understated. They were particularly vicious in their attacks on Dr. Herbert Needleman*. Time and further research has vindicated Needleman's work but there have been no mea culpas from the lead industries captive scientists. If there is a hell I trust there is a special place for them.
> 
> *These were not collegial academic disagreements, they were out to ruin him.



You are being too gentle by even giving credit to hubris or stupidity. It's all 100% money or politics, but... politics is money, so, yeah, money. Most don't care what happens _after_ their moment of fame. They will be a footnote or dead. But if they can make thousands or millions for saying something now, well, yeah, there they go.


----------



## chefwp




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## MarcelNL

Our Govt just dropped the 1.5meter rule, facemasks only required for public transport okains and airports, bars restaurants, events can happen at 75% of capacity for unseated events but access to events and restaurants etc depends on the 3G rule (vaccinated, recovered or tested negative). Only nightclubs and disco's still need to close at midnight, which IMO defeats the whole point of going to one.

So there is light at the end of the tunnel...let's hope we do not enter another tunnel.


----------



## big_adventure

MarcelNL said:


> Our Govt just dropped the 1.5meter rule, facemasks only required for public transport okains and airports, bars restaurants, events can happen at 75% of capacity for unseated events but access to events and restaurants etc depends on the 3G rule (vaccinated, recovered or tested negative). Only nightclubs and disco's still need to close at midnight, which IMO defeats the whole point of going to one.
> 
> So there is light at the end of the tunnel...let's hope we do not enter another tunnel.



I hope so for you guys. You have been stable at about 2500 cases a day for a month. Here in France, we've recently dropped to less than that (despite nearly 4x the population), and are on a continuous downward curve. As long as the vax+ checking is strict, hopefully it'll be OK. Ours is, here - you can't do anything without someone scanning your code. Indoor anything is still masked on top of the vax+ check. Of course, bars, nightclubs, restaurants, etc. are not masked. Can't get in the way of consumption.


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## Bill13

That is great news! The US governments refusal to acknowledge natural immunity's superiority to a man made vaccine has been baffling. Hospitalizations caused by Covid (as opposed to with Covid) should be broken out into not vaccinated & never had Covid, not vaccinated but had Covid, had Covid and was vaccinated, and vaccinated but never had Covid. 
Today's WSJ had a nice opinion piece about this: Opinion | Covid Confusion at the CDC

The first quote: "Sound data from the CDC has been especially lacking on natural immunity from prior Covid infection. On Aug. 25, Israel published the most powerful and scientifically rigorous study on the subject to date. In a sample of more than 700,000 people, natural immunity was 27 times more effective than vaccinated immunity in preventing symptomatic infections." 

The second quote: 

"The CDC did put out a study on natural immunity last month, forcefully concluding that vaccinated immunity was 2.3 times better than natural immunity. The CDC used these results to justify telling those with natural immunity to get vaccinated.

But the rate of infection in each group was less than 0.01%, meaning infections were exceedingly rare in the short two-month time period the agency chose to study. This is odd, given there are more than a year of data available. Moreover, despite having data on all 50 states, the CDC only reported data from Kentucky. Was Kentucky the only state that produced the desired result? Why else exclude the same data from the other 49 states?"


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## MarcelNL

did you read the study article and not just the press release about it before coming to conclusions and suspicion?

The vaccine is not available for more than like 8 months, and you need to do a comparison in the same time frame, so they picked these two months, it is explained/described in the article.

From what I see the study concludes that the risk of getting re-infected is higher when you already had Covid than when you are vaccinated (reduces that risk to 0)
I'm pretty sure, though the choice for that state is not explicitly explained that it had something to do with th eplace of work of the authors, Kentucky. I'm also pretty sure that the results will be very similar for ANY state.

the editors take;
*What is already known about this topic?*

_Reinfection with human coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has been documented. Currently, limited evidence concerning the protection afforded by vaccination against reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 is available.

*What is added by this report?*

Among Kentucky residents infected with SARS-CoV-2 in 2020, vaccination status of those reinfected during May–June 2021 was compared with that of residents who were not reinfected. In this case-control study, being unvaccinated was associated with 2.34 times the odds of reinfection compared with being fully vaccinated.

*What are the implications for public health practice?*

To reduce their likelihood for future infection, all eligible persons should be offered COVID-19 vaccine, even those with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection._


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## Barmoley

The CDC study was to compare natural protection vs natural protection + full vaccination. They determined that vaccination provides additional protection. Is this a surprise to anyone? This study did not compare purely vaccine vs natural immunity. The Israeli study compared purely vaccine vs natural immunity and found that natural immunity is much stronger. Last time I checked when it came out the study was not peer reviewed, so I don't know how much we can believe the Israeli study. Maybe it was reviewed since.

It seems clear that if your chance of getting seriously sick is extremely small after recovery than even if the vaccine improves your immunity 2.3 times, the vaccine is basically wasted on you. Now, I believe that the vaccines are very safe, but wasting them seems counterintuitive in the world that has a huge shortage of them.


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## MarcelNL

what exactly is it you are trying to say? which study and who are saying anything? 

Bottom line conclusion from the CDC study is that the authors suggest that people with natural immunity should also be OFFERED vaccination to protect them from re-infection. Sounds reasonable to me, whether people want to is up to them. The study also does not speak of morbidity and mortality of re-infection so who can judge what impact the relatively small risk may have?

the limitations of the CDC study are also presented; one of them is ; Finally, this is a retrospective study design using data from a single state during a 2-month period; therefore, these findings cannot be used to infer causation. Additional prospective studies with larger populations are warranted to support these findings.


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## natto

Do the last posts show some hope? may I ecxpect a less horrible future?

So far germany got stuck at 80/100 000 infections since about a week. Schools are open since few weeks and restrictions get lowered. Step by step people return to live as they are used to.

I would like to understand what stopped the exponential increase, despite weather becoming more covid frindly and lowering restrictions. Not knowing much the latest numbers might be the result of less tests, because vaccinated people use less tests, might be about how data is collected.

I would like a reliable explanation!


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## MarcelNL

How about; vaccination actually works despite what many people think, and that the vaccination rate is getting high enough to really matter?
Denmark is cancelling all Covid measures.

EDIT: vax rate PLUS herd immunity of course


----------



## natto

MarcelNL said:


> How about; vaccination actually works despite what many people think, and that the vaccination rate is getting high enough to really matter?
> Denmark is cancelling all Covid measures.
> 
> EDIT: vax rate PLUS herd immunity of course


Vaccination shows up in statistic data, no question! you may be right about this, and I hope so. The last weeks showed infections incresing, not caring for vaccination rate. We may have reached a point where the vaccination reduces R to one. This idea fits the data of some other countries. The next days will show what to ecpect. If you are right, I would expect R to rise again, depending on the vaccination rate. . OK, this idea is good enough to go to bed

btw: Herd immunity sounds funny to me. With measels older people got it in their youth, and other people only need one shot to never get measels. Enough people vaccinated would stop measels forever, I hope. With covid I don't see anything that provides herd immunity.

Thank you, and have a good night.


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## Barmoley

MarcelNL said:


> what exactly is it you are trying to say? which study and who are saying anything?
> 
> Bottom line conclusion from the CDC study is that the authors suggest that people with natural immunity should also be OFFERED vaccination to protect them from re-infection. Sounds reasonable to me, whether people want to is up to them. The study also does not speak of morbidity and mortality of re-infection so who can judge what impact the relatively small risk may have?
> 
> the limitations of the CDC study are also presented; one of them is ; Finally, this is a retrospective study design using data from a single state during a 2-month period; therefore, these findings cannot be used to infer causation. Additional prospective studies with larger populations are warranted to support these findings.



You presented portions of the study that say that fully vaccinated are 2.34 more protected than unvaccinated. This makes it sound like the study was about vaccine vs no vaccine on people who were never sick. I pointed out that it was vaccine vs no vaccine, but for people recovered from COVID. This makes a huge difference since if natural protection is similar to being fully vaccinated then recovered people should not be vaccinated. You would not offer additional full vaccination to already fully vaccinated people. In the US recovered are treated as unvaccinated, this means that unless you have vaccine cards you need to be constantly tested even though you are potentially in the same category as fully vaccinated. Some countries treat recovered as fully vaccinated and I think this is correct assuming the protection is similar.

Vaccine should be offered to anyone, but recovered should not be forced to vaccinate, since vaccine should be used for unvaccinated that haven’t been sick. Improving protection of someone who is very unlikely to be seriously sick should be the last priority. CDC study is misleading and it should not be used to drive policy to vaccinate everyone. It would be better if they studied pure vaccination protection vs pure natural protection.


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## MarcelNL

@Barmoley I presented the HIGHLIGHTS of the study and mentioned this and I copied the conclusion of the authors and one of the limitations they offered, reading the full paper helps as both the highlights and the CDC messaging are not the authors responsability. The authors wrote a well balanced paper with new information about re-infection risk, and that is about it.
The conclusion is that natural immunity is NOT comparable to immunity from vaccination as far as re-infection is concerned.

In most countries in the EU now 3G is used to allow access to various things; cured, vaccinated or tested in all three cases you need to show proof. Is there no way in the US to prove recovery?





COVID-19 Traveler Information







travel.state.gov













Here's what you need to know about COVID-19 testing


Antibody testing determines if you had COVID-19 (coronavirus) infection in the past. It differs from testing to diagnose if you currently have COVID-19.




www.mayoclinic.org





What the CDC communications people did with the content and why is unclear to me too, yet I fail to see the 'misleading' aspect of the study article yet you may have a point saying that people draw misleading conclusions about the content. I also fail to see anything leading me to believe anyone is being forced to be vaccinated, the US overall vaccination rate is further proof of a lack of force (and motivation).


----------



## riba

Fwiw, there is also a temporal aspect. E.g. here the test status expires after 24h , and the 'cured' status expires after 180 days.


----------



## big_adventure

Barmoley said:


> You presented portions of the study that say that fully vaccinated are 2.34 more protected than unvaccinated. This makes it sound like the study was about vaccine vs no vaccine on people who were never sick. I pointed out that it was vaccine vs no vaccine, but for people recovered from COVID. This makes a huge difference since if natural protection is similar to being fully vaccinated then recovered people should not be vaccinated. You would not offer additional full vaccination to already fully vaccinated people. In the US recovered are treated as unvaccinated, this means that unless you have vaccine cards you need to be constantly tested even though you are potentially in the same category as fully vaccinated. Some countries treat recovered as fully vaccinated and I think this is correct assuming the protection is similar.
> 
> Vaccine should be offered to anyone, but recovered should not be forced to vaccinate, since vaccine should be used for unvaccinated that haven’t been sick. Improving protection of someone who is very unlikely to be seriously sick should be the last priority. CDC study is misleading and it should not be used to drive policy to vaccinate everyone. It would be better if they studied pure vaccination protection vs pure natural protection.



There is an issue there, of course: there is no shortage of vaccines in the US. None at all. Anybody who wants one can have one, today, almost anywhere they like, for free. Just get the vaccine and stop trying to find reasons not to do it. Being vaccinated + recovered is better than just vaccinated or just recovered. Why on Earth wouldn't you get vaccinated?



MarcelNL said:


> @Barmoley I presented the HIGHLIGHTS of the study and mentioned this and I copied the conclusion of the authors and one of the limitations they offered, reading the full paper helps as both the highlights and the CDC messaging are not the authors responsability. The authors wrote a well balanced paper with new information about re-infection risk, and that is about it.
> The conclusion is that natural immunity is NOT comparable to immunity from vaccination as far as re-infection is concerned.
> 
> In most countries in the EU now 3G is used to allow access to various things; cured, vaccinated or tested in all three cases you need to show proof. Is there no way in the US to prove recovery?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 Traveler Information
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> travel.state.gov
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Here's what you need to know about COVID-19 testing
> 
> 
> Antibody testing determines if you had COVID-19 (coronavirus) infection in the past. It differs from testing to diagnose if you currently have COVID-19.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.mayoclinic.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What the CDC communications people did with the content and why is unclear to me too, yet I fail to see the 'misleading' aspect of the study article yet you may have a point saying that people draw misleading conclusions about the content. I also fail to see anything leading me to believe anyone is being forced to be vaccinated, the US overall vaccination rate is further proof of a lack of force (and motivation).



Agree on everything, they weren't trying to be misleading in any way I could discern in the article - and no, in the US, there is no way to prove recovery because there is no centralized system to manage positive test results. In France, like I'm sure in the NL, having a centralized health care system means that they can issue an official, coded test certificate. Show a positive cert with a following negative cert, and you prove recovery well enough. The US doesn't have that anywhere. They don't even have a consistent vaccination card - companies, states, counties, whatever all do their own.

And, of course...



riba said:


> Fwiw, there is also a temporal aspect. E.g. here the test status expires after 24h , and the 'cured' status expires after 180 days.



Here in France, a negative test counts in the vax+ category for 48 or 72 hours, depending on the activity. Recovery counts for 6 months. 

Over 65's and other at-risk people can already get a booster officially.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Here you have to show app. on phone proof of shots to go anywhere. Large groups inside or outside limited. Inside Mask mandate except eating of coarse.

Quite a few pregnant mothers in hospital all not vaccinated. Were afraid to get shots when pregnant. Kids conceived during lockdown. 
Doctor said never in her career seen so many women in bad shape while pregnant. One has died.

Tampa Bay football game had over 65 thousand fans in stadium. Hardly any wearing
mask. Watching F1 racing in Holland & Germany plenty fans again no mask. Think heard Japan canceled F1 this season. Look how tight Olympics were.

I'm waiting to see if cases continue to go up with loaded stadiums in football, & chugging beers tailgating in parking lots.


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## big_adventure

Keith Sinclair said:


> Here you have to show app. on phone proof of shots to go anywhere. Large groups inside or outside limited. Inside Mask mandate except eating of coarse.
> 
> Quite a few pregnant mothers in hospital all not vaccinated. Were afraid to get shots when pregnant. Kids conceived during lockdown.
> Doctor said never in her career seen so many women in bad shape while pregnant. One has died.
> 
> Tampa Bay football game had over 65 thousand fans in stadium. Hardly any wearing
> mask. Watching F1 racing in Holland & Germany plenty fans again no mask. Think heard Japan canceled F1 this season. Look how tight Olympics were.
> 
> I'm waiting to see if cases continue to go up with loaded stadiums in football, & chugging beers tailgating in parking lots.



Japan has a huuuuuuuuge vax issue though - the country was under 5% vax'ed when the Olympics kicked off.

Most of Western Europe is much further along than the States, and it shows in the case rates. I can't say if it's a good thing to go maskless packed in with 100K people, but when you know that the vax rate is pushing 80% and the vax/neg test rate is 100% to get into the event, well, risk is mitigated.

In the US, there are too many people going all Braveheart on this particular soapbox.

And therefore, the US case toll and death toll is approaching 25% of the world's total per day.


----------



## MarcelNL

We need to dissociate cases from vaccination, which is vastly more important as you still can get infected (much less likely so) when vaccinated but the likehood that bad things happen is extremely low.


----------



## Barmoley

big_adventure said:


> There is an issue there, of course: there is no shortage of vaccines in the US. None at all. Anybody who wants one can have one, today, almost anywhere they like, for free. Just get the vaccine and stop trying to find reasons not to do it. Being vaccinated + recovered is better than just vaccinated or just recovered. Why on Earth wouldn't you get vaccinated?



The issue is that even though there is no shortage in the US there is a shortage in the rest of the world. WHO is begging wealthy nations to not boost their vaccinated and instead share with nations that need the vaccines. Should we just ignore the rest of the world and just boost every 6 month? Someone might decide not to get vaccinated after recovery for the same reason you wouldn't buy 2 lottery tickets instead of 1 when deciding to play, your odds of winning are much higher, but they are still so tiny that not playing at all is a better decision. People play anyway, but with covid we are supposed to follow the science not just do what makes us feel better regardless of evidence. If there were no shortages of vaccines everywhere then sure vaccinate as often as you want.



big_adventure said:


> Agree on everything, they weren't trying to be misleading in any way I could discern in the article - and no, in the US, there is no way to prove recovery because there is no centralized system to manage positive test results. In France, like I'm sure in the NL, having a centralized health care system means that they can issue an official, coded test certificate. Show a positive cert with a following negative cert, and you prove recovery well enough. The US doesn't have that anywhere. They don't even have a consistent vaccination card - companies, states, counties, whatever all do their own.
> 
> And, of course...
> 
> 
> 
> Here in France, a negative test counts in the vax+ category for 48 or 72 hours, depending on the activity. Recovery counts for 6 months.
> 
> Over 65's and other at-risk people can already get a booster officially.



In the US you could prove recovery by showing positive and then negative tests or by showing a test indicating you have antibodies, but these are not taken into consideration. CDC basically used the discussed study to say that since protection goes up when vaccinating recovered then just vaccinate everyone because there is no harm. This is true, but it ignores the rest of the world that is lacking in the vaccines. Sure CDC maybe is not supposed to care about the rest of the world, but the pandemic is global, so solutions need to be somewhat global.

In any case at this point covid discussions have nothing to do with science and are more like religious believes. Some believe vaccines are evil, some that they will solve everything. Add to this all the political baggage and it is very difficult for a regular person to make the right decisions. To me it is pretty clear that unvaccinated should vaccinate even more so for vulnerable, recovered I don't know maybe at some point we need more studies on how long natural immunity lasts, I also don't know about boosters. Especially boosters for recovered + vaccinated, I am sure the booster will increase protection even more. I also realize that choices on individual level of either recovered or vaccinated will not help the world anyway. It is not as if I forgo the booster it will go to some other country to someone who needs it more.


----------



## ian

Barmoley said:


> Someone might decide not to get vaccinated after recovery for the same reason you wouldn't buy 2 lottery tickets instead of 1 when deciding to play, your odds of winning are much higher, but they are still so tiny that not playing at all is a better decision.



That may be a rational decision on an individual scale, but I think the analogy breaks down when you consider that if everyone got a vaccine that made them half as likely to be infected, then a virus that has an R_0 of like 1.5 or whatever would then result in each person infecting less than one other person, and then the virus would die out. So it's possibly not a rational decision on the scale of public policy, depending on what all the numbers are. Even if you have a more infectious disease, slightly cutting down the effective infectiousness by vaccinating everyone can result in a huge difference in the number of infected people, I guess.

Sending vaccines abroad to places that need them the most sounds like a good idea to me, though. I don't have any idea of what difficulties there are with the logistics of that (I'm sure there are many), but in principle I totally support combating the global problem over unduly* prioritizing the USA.


*Don't ask me what unduly means. I don't know anything.


----------



## big_adventure

Barmoley said:


> The issue is that even though there is no shortage in the US there is a shortage in the rest of the world. WHO is begging wealthy nations to not boost their vaccinated and instead share with nations that need the vaccines. Should we just ignore the rest of the world and just boost every 6 month? Someone might decide not to get vaccinated after recovery for the same reason you wouldn't buy 2 lottery tickets instead of 1 when deciding to play, your odds of winning are much higher, but they are still so tiny that not playing at all is a better decision. People play anyway, but with covid we are supposed to follow the science not just do what makes us feel better regardless of evidence. If there were no shortages of vaccines everywhere then sure vaccinate as often as you want.
> 
> 
> 
> In the US you could prove recovery by showing positive and then negative tests or by showing a test indicating you have antibodies, but these are not taken into consideration. CDC basically used the discussed study to say that since protection goes up when vaccinating recovered then just vaccinate everyone because there is no harm. This is true, but it ignores the rest of the world that is lacking in the vaccines. Sure CDC maybe is not supposed to care about the rest of the world, but the pandemic is global, so solutions need to be somewhat global.
> 
> In any case at this point covid discussions have nothing to do with science and are more like religious believes. Some believe vaccines are evil, some that they will solve everything. Add to this all the political baggage and it is very difficult for a regular person to make the right decisions. To me it is pretty clear that unvaccinated should vaccinate even more so for vulnerable, recovered I don't know maybe at some point we need more studies on how long natural immunity lasts, I also don't know about boosters. Especially boosters for recovered + vaccinated, I am sure the booster will increase protection even more. I also realize that choices on individual level of either recovered or vaccinated will not help the world anyway. It is not as if I forgo the booster it will go to some other country to someone who needs it more.



1st point - showing valid proof : Sadly, in the US, everything is non-standardized. Meaning that test results are unique to a particular lab, insurer, drugstore, whatever. There is no standardized reporting format nationwide, so there is no standardized way to validate them. In Europe, for all the faults we have here, we DO have that in place. 

2nd point - the numbers aren't lottery ticket numbers. This is true of other diseases as well: having a light case might mean your body never developed a strong immune response, so you might not have great protection despite having had the virus. Also, there is plenty of anecdotal "proof" that protection wanes over time - mostly in that nobody gets the bug again within 6 months of having it (literally, nobody) but people DO contract it after. And any time it's active in a system, even if it's a mild case, it's an opportunity to both spread the disease AND to develop a variant. Being vax'ed is very solid protection and being vax'ed plus victimized is even better. Everything agrees on this. I don't need to know precise numbers to say that it's a good idea to get vax'ed. I guarantee that 99% of people out there have no idea how effective the polio vaccine is (Salk's was only about 65% effective), but damn near everyone had it and because of that, polio was defeated in most of the world. Chicken pox has basically been defeated in western countries. 

I agree that the difference may or may not be marginal - but there IS a definite difference and, given the number of people who are screwing it up for everyone else by not getting vaccinated, having everyone else who doesn't hate society and doesn't hate their fellow humans taking an extra, free, quick, nearly painless step to better protect all of us seems like a good idea.

3rd - Yes, you not having a vaccine or a booster will definitely not result in that vaccine being administered in Rwanda. We'd need teleporters, we don't have them yet. I wish we did. There's a disappointing and sad side to that; on the other hand, imagine the wrath and invective that would be hurled at the administration in France, the Netherlands or the US if people who wanted a vaccine couldn't get a vaccine. So the people in office, depending on our suffrage to remain there, have it in their best interest to have vax's available.

Note, I am pretty much agreeing with you on most of what you say about the hard-ish science, I just think that it's important to avoid excuses for not getting vaccinated, and it's important to put the context out, well, at least my view of it. I have nothing against you and I'm not "arguing" as much as looking at the point from a different direction.


----------



## Barmoley

ian said:


> That may be a rational decision on an individual scale, but I think the analogy breaks down when you consider that if everyone got a vaccine that made them half as likely to be infected, then a virus that has an R_0 of like 1.5 or whatever would then result in each person infecting less than one other person, and then the virus would die out. So it's possibly not a rational decision on the scale of public policy, depending on what all the numbers are. Even if you have a more infectious disease, slightly cutting down the effective infectiousness by vaccinating everyone can result in a huge difference in the number of infected people, I guess.
> 
> Sending vaccines abroad to places that need them the most sounds like a good idea to me, though. I don't have any idea of what difficulties there are with the logistics of that (I'm sure there are many), but in principle I totally support combating the global problem over unduly* prioritizing the USA.
> 
> 
> *Don't ask me what unduly means. I don't know anything.


The question was "Why on Earth wouldn't you get vaccinated?" in the context of previously recovered person, this is an individual level question, so my response is individual level as well. An example, of why on Earth a recovered or previously vaccinated individual would decide not to get vaccinated or boosted. The argument that some make is that recovered have same level of immunity as fully vaccinated. If this is the case then 2 groups should be treated the same. Currently we don't fully vaccinate a previously fully vaccinated person, so you shouldn't fully vaccinate a recovered person. You might want to boost both at some point, 6 month maybe. This all assumes natural immunity is similar to being fully vaxed. 

From the public policy stand point it is simpler to just say vax all, so this is what is being done. I just wish that there were more studies on natural immunity, as a bonus we might stop villainizing people if they don't get vaxed with a valid reason.


----------



## AT5760

How are things locally for everyone? Here in eastern Nebraska (U.S.), COVID definitely isn't gone, but it also isn't affecting most people's everyday lives. The state has no real remaining restrictions and isn't tracking numbers consistently. Hospitals are busy; although anecdotally non-COVID illnesses (particularly in children) are driving a lot of that. School mask mandates are the biggest flashpoint with the folks against mask requirements becoming increasingly vitriolic.


----------



## MarcelNL

AT5760 said:


> How are things locally for everyone? Here in eastern Nebraska (U.S.), COVID definitely isn't gone, but it also isn't affecting most people's everyday lives. The state has no real remaining restrictions and isn't tracking numbers consistently. Hospitals are busy; although anecdotally non-COVID illnesses (particularly in children) are driving a lot of that. School mask mandates are the biggest flashpoint with the folks against mask requirements becoming increasingly vitriolic.



Johns Hopkins Covid tracker shows a black hole where you live, did your state pull a 'Tanzania" and decide not to count cases so Covid goes away?


----------



## AT5760

Yes.

For the first 3-4 months, my state's governor kept his head down, listened to the medical professionals, and was a bit of an outlier compared to other governors in his political party. At some point that changed. Now, we don't have any concept of what numbers look like on a state-wide level.


----------



## ian

Barmoley said:


> The question was "Why on Earth wouldn't you get vaccinated?" in the context of previously recovered person, this is an individual level question, so my response is individual level as well. An example, of why on Earth a recovered or previously vaccinated individual would decide not to get vaccinated or boosted. The argument that some make is that recovered have same level of immunity as fully vaccinated. If this is the case then 2 groups should be treated the same. Currently we don't fully vaccinate a previously fully vaccinated person, so you shouldn't fully vaccinate a recovered person. You might want to boost both at some point, 6 month maybe. This all assumes natural immunity is similar to being fully vaxed.
> 
> From the public policy stand point it is simpler to just say vax all, so this is what is being done. I just wish that there were more studies on natural immunity, as a bonus we might stop villainizing people if they don't get vaxed with a valid reason.



Sorry, maybe I misinterpreted. Just seemed like the question of "what's rational for an individual" was getting tied up with "what do we as a nation think is rational for an individual, and therefore as a public policy should be accepted as an ok individual choice".


----------



## MarcelNL

AT5760 said:


> Yes.
> 
> For the first 3-4 months, my state's governor kept his head down, listened to the medical professionals, and was a bit of an outlier compared to other governors in his political party. At some point that changed. Now, we don't have any concept of what numbers look like on a state-wide level.


I visit(ed) the US very frequently and work with collegues in the US on a daily basis, but I have never been SO amazed as in the last year and a half....stunned.


----------



## tcmx3

AT5760 said:


> How are things locally for everyone? Here in eastern Nebraska (U.S.), COVID definitely isn't gone, but it also isn't affecting most people's everyday lives. The state has no real remaining restrictions and isn't tracking numbers consistently. Hospitals are busy; although anecdotally non-COVID illnesses (particularly in children) are driving a lot of that. School mask mandates are the biggest flashpoint with the folks against mask requirements becoming increasingly vitriolic.



I mean I live in Texas which is just a complete disaster but let me tell you my suburb, whose demographics are pretty close to this forums, is acting like COVID isnt around anymore.

Never has it been more clear to me that there are two Americas than when you look at the demographics of who is dying around here.


----------



## Luftmensch

@Barmoley,

You seem to be holding contradictory views. I couldnt walk past this comment:



Barmoley said:


> as a bonus we might stop villainizing people if they don't get vaxed with a valid reason.



Nobody is villainising people who dont get vaccinated... if they have a _valid_ reason. I have not heard even the most militant pro-vaccine evangelical, hecktor people suffering from autoimmune diseases. I'll even uncomfortably accomodate people with religious beliefs that prohibit vaccination. Simply disagreeing with the current medical consensus or civic orders are not 'valid reasons'.

Current consensus is that recovering from covid does not necessarily confer a robust immune response. A low-dose exposure to the virus does not guarantee a high level of antibodies. This skips past the obvious statement of risk that is associated with a high-dose exposure to the virus. Whether or not you have had covid, getting vaccinated helps protect you and others.

You are using language that has the seeds of anti-science language. Claiming rich countries are vaccinating people with 'natural immunity' at the cost of poor countries is leftie camouflage. I am afraid, as @big_adventure points out, Americans getting vaccinated in America does not subtract vaccines from poorer countries. That is simply not how the vaccine supply chains and deals work. Offering the opinion that people who recovered from covid should not be vaccinated is a dog-whistle to anti-vaxxers.


----------



## daveb

There certainly is a movement in this country to villainize people who have not gotten vaxed - for whatever reason. Deny employment, attendance, participation, etc simply to drive the vax numbers up is not only folly but will have unintended but predictable consequences. 

Because Barmoley got off to a good start, I just want to capture and "tweak" his thesis. 

From the public policy stand point it is simpler to just say vax all, so this is what is being done. Simple has a great attraction to politicians who prefer to "do something" and then conflate it with "accomplish something". I just wish that there were more studies on natural immunity, as a bonus we might stop villainizing people if they don't get vaxed for whatever reason they choose.

Pro choice is not anti-vaccine.


----------



## big_adventure

daveb said:


> There certainly is a movement in this country to villainize people who have not gotten vaxed - for whatever reason. Deny employment, attendance, participation, etc simply to drive the vax numbers up is not only folly but will have unintended but predictable consequences.
> 
> Because Barmoley got off to a good start, I just want to capture and "tweak" his thesis.
> 
> From the public policy stand point it is simpler to just say vax all, so this is what is being done. Simple has a great attraction to politicians who prefer to "do something" and then conflate it with "accomplish something". I just wish that there were more studies on natural immunity, as a bonus we might stop villainizing people if they don't get vaxed for whatever reason they choose.
> 
> Pro choice is not anti-vaccine.



OK, just no: denying privileges to bad actors or enforcing social contracts isn't "villainization." 

You can't drive a car without a driver's licence. Is that "villainizing" people without licences? Of course not. 

You can't go to work naked, generally. "Villains?" Nah. 

You can't go to school or work in a lot of public sectors without a whole truckload of vaccinations already. Is that "villainization?" Obviously not. 

You can't walk into the corner store and take a poop on the counter. Still not "villainization."

You can't run red lights and park in disabled spaces and drive 130 through the center of town, nobody calls that "villainization."

Putting rules in place to protect the public and enforcing them is literally the main purpose of government. We now see a deadly disease that doesn't have to be this deadly - the US started the vax effort well but, predictably, one of the two predominant political sides decided to politicize it. It stalled. They also politicized other mitigation efforts. Now the US is doing vastly worse than nearly every other developed western nation except for our friends waaaaaaay out there in the Pacific, who had a viable-ish lockdown strategy they could and did use. And, _shockingly_, this has translated into MUCH higher case numbers and MASSIVELY higher death numbers.

Arguing "we don't know 100% of the difference between vax+recovery and just vax" is in extremely bad faith, when we know, through real-world observation, empirically, beyond a shadow of a doubt that "vax is better than non-vax in every normal situation."

Vax / vax-adjacent mandates _work._ France was behind the States in vaccinations and doing worse in cases and deaths over a period of time until the administration here sacked up and put in the mandates. Vaccination rate shot up, and, shortly after, our case load started falling. With a population of around 1/5th the US, and much more densely populated (thus, generally better for virus transmission), the case rate here is about 1/20th the US rate (8K/day to 165K/day), and the death rate is slightly lower still at 1/23rd (81 versus 1888). Note, this is really easy to correlate, because a month ago, French rates were around 1/5th the US in both.


----------



## Matus

Just to touch on immunity that stems from having recovered from Covid. Especially when one looks at different waves that when through different countries or regions (in particular several locations in south America or India that got hit badly last year are a good example) it becomes pretty clear, that once recovered one has certain level of immunity against the given type of virus, but as soon as new mutations shows, it all starts all over again. On the other hand the vaccines have (so far) been quite successful protecting from different mutations of the virus. That does not mean that it will be the case of the next one that may be just around the corner, but so far we got pretty lucky in this regard.


----------



## MarcelNL

I wonder how all this became so policital, is there anyone listening to what the experts have to say? It;s not as if they cannot be heard, they have been all over TV every day and the whole day at that?

Same as with that article, the article is the source, if you listen to the translation of it by CDC propaganda office or someone recalling what they think the conclusions were it is all too easy to miss the whole point. Always go to the source, I hear master Yoda calling...


----------



## Luftmensch

daveb said:


> There certainly is a movement in this country to villainize people who have not gotten vaxed - for whatever reason. Deny employment, attendance, participation, etc simply to drive the vax numbers up is not only folly but will have unintended but predictable consequences.
> 
> Because Barmoley got off to a good start, I just want to capture and "tweak" his thesis.
> 
> From the public policy stand point it is simpler to just say vax all, so this is what is being done. Simple has a great attraction to politicians who prefer to "do something" and then conflate it with "accomplish something". I just wish that there were more studies on natural immunity, as a bonus we might stop villainizing people if they don't get vaxed for whatever reason they choose.
> 
> Pro choice is not anti-vaccine.



If someone holds a libertarian view, I will accept that as their world view. We can agree to disagree. I commend them if they are open about it. However, if a person holds a libertarian stance, I think it is profoundly wrong to muddy the medical consensus by throwing around red herrings. 

In the countries we are talking about_ it is not illegal to be unvaccinated_. Nobody _has to be_ vaccinated. That said, it is becoming increasingly costly to exercise that choice. As you note, employment and attendance to certain venues may be limited for those who choose to remain unvaccinated. From a public health perspective, I do not have a problem with this. I do acknowledge this causes a dilemma for those who are inclined not to get vaccinated... but life is full of trade-offs.


.... on a side note... I am not entirely sure what the "unintended but predictable consequences" are...


----------



## Barmoley

Matus said:


> Just to touch on immunity that stems from having recovered from Covid. Especially when one looks at different waves that when through different countries or regions (in particular several locations in south America or India that got hit badly last year are a good example) it becomes pretty clear, that once recovered one has certain level of immunity against the given type of virus, but as soon as new mutations shows, it all starts all over again. On the other hand the vaccines have (so far) been quite successful protecting from different mutations of the virus. That does not mean that it will be the case of the next one that may be just around the corner, but so far we got pretty lucky in this regard.


I was referring to this study. Unfortunately, as I’ve acknowledged before it hasn’t been peer reviewed, so it is unknown if the conclusions are valid. This is why I want more studies, but in the US there is no political will to do so.

To the gentlemen who pointed out that me not getting the vaccine will not make this vaccine available somewhere else, thank you, but I acknowledged this at the end of this. I fully realize that this is not how vaccine distribution works and that individual decisions don’t matter here. Given that US already donated millions of vaccine doses to other countries on the federal level vaccines can be sent to other countries. We could save a lot of doses if it was determined that for example just one booster dose instead of two is enough for recovered.

Also, I don’t understand why a few of you are trying to make my arguments into antivax for people who didn’t recover. I think people who haven’t been sick should vaccinate and I’ve stated this multiple times. I am simply questioning why there are very few studies about natural immunity. I am interested to know if there is a need to vaccinate recovered and if so what should the protocol be. I want science to guide us not politics and in the US at the moment it seems to be politics.

Saying, “what’s a big deal just get a vaccine“ is missing the point, that these vaccine shots can potentially be more effective somewhere else. This is a global problem and if we have extras they should be donated abroad and this is possible on federal level as has already been done.


----------



## Luftmensch

Barmoley said:


> I am simply questioning why there are very few studies about natural immunity. I am interested to know if there is a need to vaccinate recovered and if so what should the protocol be. I want science to guide us not politics and in the US at the moment it seems to be politics.



Why is "natural immunity" of so much interest to you? Literally the first sentence of that CDC paper you guys were discussing addresses this:



> Although laboratory evidence suggests that antibody responses following COVID-19 vaccination provide better neutralization of some circulating variants than does natural infection (1,2), few real-world epidemiologic studies exist to support the benefit of vaccination for previously infected persons.



You can look up those citations if you choose. A google search will reveal other publications on the natural immune response to COVID. The research is there. But you are glossing over points on why relying on a natural immune response is bad:

Exposure is risky
A low dose exposure does not necessarily confer a robust immune response
Exposure during the first wave does not necessarily confer a robust immune response to more recent variants
Identifying the degree to which a person has gained immunity from COVID is expensive and slow - a.k.a infeasible to effectively monitor from a public health perspective

Remember the vaccines are new. We are still trying to optimise their efficacy (e.g. time between doses). It may turn out that these are three dose vaccines (like hepatitis B or human papilloma virus). Maybe we do have to keep getting seasonal boosters like the Flu-shot.




Barmoley said:


> Saying, “what’s a big deal just get a vaccine“ is missing the point, that these vaccine shots can potentially be more effective somewhere else. This is a global problem and if we have extras they should be donated abroad and this is possible on federal level as has already been done.



Okay... I agree with you if we are talking about a significant _surplus_. And as you noted somewhere, rich countries are donating surplus to poorer countries. So there is no problem?

But this is also what I mean about contradictory statements? An American who recovers from covid does not create a surplus - so the vaccine is not being taken away from anybody. The data suggests they would benefit from taking it. I dont see the problem? Or are you advocating the government plan to acquire and distribute less vaccines than the total population?

It is also worth pointing out that we can walk and chew gum. Why not try to get doses to poor countries whilst planning for gold-standard treatment in our own countries? If you believe a person in poor countries deserves the same access to medicine as the rich countries... then they will potentially need a third dose or boosters... and they will want to potentially advise their population to get a vaccine even if they have contracted covid.


----------



## riba

Donate to Gavi


Help us to ensure that more people can benefit from vaccines, no matter where they live or their economic status.




www.gavi.org


----------



## Barmoley

Luftmensch said:


> Why is "natural immunity" of so much interest to you? Literally the first sentence of that CDC paper you guys were discussing addresses this:
> 
> 
> 
> You can look up those citations if you choose. A google search will reveal other publications on the natural immune response to COVID. The research is there. But you are glossing over points on why relying on a natural immune response is bad:
> 
> Exposure is risky
> A low dose exposure does not necessarily confer a robust immune response
> Exposure during the first wave does not necessarily confer a robust immune response to more recent variants
> Identifying the degree to which a person has gained immunity from COVID is expensive and slow - a.k.a infeasible to effectively monitor from a public health perspective



I am not advocating exposure in lieu of vaccine. Once again, no exposure get the full vaccine. Your next 2 points is why we need more studies this study seems to contradict your points, claiming that previous exposure provides better immunity to Delta variant than 2 dose of Pfyzer.

From the study

*Conclusions* This study demonstrated that natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization caused by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, compared to the BNT162b2 two-dose vaccine-induced immunity. Individuals who were both previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 and given a single dose of the vaccine gained additional protection against the Delta variant.

The recovered were not recovered from delta variant, but instead recovered from other variants since Delta was not present at the time of exposure in Israel to any wide extent. If true it puts under suspicion your conclusion that natural immunity doesn't protect against variants. I also didn't notice them selecting for severity of infection in the recovered, unless I missed it, this puts under question the common belief that recovering after mild disease does not provide adequate protection.

*So more studies are needed.*




Luftmensch said:


> Remember the vaccines are new. We are still trying to optimise their efficacy (e.g. time between doses). It may turn out that these are three dose vaccines (like hepatitis B or human papilloma virus). Maybe we do have to keep getting seasonal boosters like the Flu-shot.
> 
> 
> 
> Okay... I agree with you if we are talking about a significant _surplus_. And as you noted somewhere, rich countries are donating surplus to poorer countries. So there is no problem?
> 
> But this is also what I mean about contradictory statements? An American who recovers from covid does not create a surplus - so the vaccine is not being taken away from anybody. The data suggests they would benefit from taking it. I dont see the problem? Or are you advocating the government plan to acquire and distribute less vaccines than the total population?
> 
> It is also worth pointing out that we can walk and chew gum. Why not try to get doses to poor countries whilst planning for gold-standard treatment in our own countries? If you believe a person in poor countries deserves the same access to medicine as the rich countries... then they will potentially need a third dose or boosters... and they will want to potentially advise their population to get a vaccine even if they have contracted covid.



Do you really not understand that if most recovered only need 1 shot instead of 2 or 2 + booster then we would have a lot more surplus? I am not suggesting that vaccine rich countries should give up their vaccines that are needed for local populations. I am suggesting that maybe we should figure out how many vaccines we actually need instead of just blindly administering more shots to people that might not need them.

This is why I am interested in natural immunity which requires more studies.


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> There certainly is a movement in this country to villainize people who have not gotten vaxed - for whatever reason. Deny employment, attendance, participation, etc simply to drive the vax numbers up is not only folly but will have unintended but predictable consequences.
> 
> Because Barmoley got off to a good start, I just want to capture and "tweak" his thesis.
> 
> From the public policy stand point it is simpler to just say vax all, so this is what is being done. Simple has a great attraction to politicians who prefer to "do something" and then conflate it with "accomplish something". I just wish that there were more studies on natural immunity, as a bonus we might stop villainizing people if they don't get vaxed for whatever reason they choose.
> 
> Pro choice is not anti-vaccine.



your mistake is thinking that if you can safely get vaccinated and you dont that you _arent_ a villain.

you are, unequivocally.


----------



## ian

Barmoley said:


> this study seems to contradict your points, claiming that previous exposure provides better immunity to Delta variant than 2 dose of Pfyzer.



Hey, that's cool. Wasn't aware of that! Yea, more studies = good.

I guess there are still merits to a universal 2 shot vaccination approach even if other studies have similar conclusions. E.g. it's harder to verify natural immunity, you don't want to encourage people to avoid vaccination by getting covid, and having a simple directive rather than one with a lot of exceptions will make everything smoother. I do admit I have a knee-jerk reaction to "let's see how we can get out of vaccination", since there are so many unreasonable objections to them in the air right now, which makes it harder to appreciate reasonable discussion. We probably all have this problem at the moment.


----------



## daveb

tcmx3 said:


> your mistake is thinking that if you can safely get vaccinated and you dont that you _arent_ a villain.
> 
> you are, unequivocally.



Thanks (I guess) for your opinion. I don't share it.

While I chose to get the Vax, I have no judgement of those that don't.


----------



## Barmoley

ian said:


> Hey, that's cool. Wasn't aware of that! Yea, more studies = good.
> 
> I guess there are still merits to a universal 2 shot vaccination approach even if other studies have similar conclusions. E.g. it's harder to verify natural immunity, you don't want to encourage people to avoid vaccination by getting covid, and having a simple directive rather than one with a lot of exceptions will make everything smoother. Sending more vaccines where they're needed sounds good, although I don't know how much supply is a problem. Like, is it going to be enough of a problem to actually factor into the question of what to do in the US? I do admit I have a knee-jerk reaction to "let's see how we can get out of vaccination", since there are so many unreasonable objections to them in the air right now, which makes it harder to appreciate reasonable discussion. We probably all have this problem at the moment.


There are merits to simple blanket statements, such as let's just vaccinate all. These have nothing to do with science, so let's not pretend they do. I am absolutely against governments lying to people for people's own good. As in let's not study or publish things that might encourage some idiots to get covid instead of vaccinate. I realize we live in the real world and people in government omit information to the public all the time, I just don't think we need to protect people who would actually choose to get sick. I suspect and hope there are very few of such individuals and that this is an imagined problem. 

I absolutely agree with you Ian that having a reasonable discussion on the subject is virtually impossible at the moment. For some just questioning the need for the vaccine for some groups makes one evil and hatter of humans others think that vaccines that have been proven to be safe will somehow turn them into zombies. 

<dumb rant follows>
I want more studies, so we can actually follow science when deciding on boosters and vaccine regiments. I want surplus to be sent where needed since as far as I read there are still shortages in the world. I want to be able to discuss science and medicine without people attaching me to groups I don't belong to. I can be pro vaccine in general and still question if boosters are needed or who needs them. I can be pro flipping on BST and decide not to do it myself. I can even appreciate simple carbon kitchen knives and also realize they are not the best tool for the job in most situations. These are not contradictions just the realities of the world not being black and white.
</end of rant>


----------



## MarcelNL

I fully agree on more studies (heck I am in that business  ), there are NUMEROUS studies ongoing. Not sure if anyone of you know clinicaltrials.gov (there are equivalent databases for EMA etc) , that site is trackin studies and if you hope to publish it needs to be listed there....4000plus ongoing studies,so read your heart out on protocol design and results when they come...








Search of: Recruiting, Not yet recruiting, Active, not recruiting, Enrolling by invitation Studies | COVID - List Results - ClinicalTrials.gov







clinicaltrials.gov





Disclaimer; the usual cycle between concept, approval (if patient consent is needed) to publication of results takes longer than you probably expect.


----------



## MarcelNL

in addition; Government is not directing what gets studied or published in journals, you can also see the funding.


----------



## AT5760

Barmoley said:


> I just don't think we need to protect people who would actually choose to get sick.



In principle, I agree with this statement. In practice, I don't agree at all. Protecting people that would choose to get sick has real, tangible benefits. Those that choose to get sick may get very sick and choose to seek medical attention. Those people choosing to get sick would be consuming scarce resources (time, medicine, hospital beds, etc.) that could be used by those who did not choose to get sick. Moreover, those that choose to get sick are imposing substantial monetary costs on the rest of society unless they are paying for all medical costs completely out-of-pocket. Second, those that choose to get sick can infect others - thus leading to a greater loss of life and greater consumption of resources.

Motor vehicles are a great example of where society requires people to take actions that on the surface protect only the individual being regulated - seat belt laws and motorcycle helmet laws. Those laws also limit the costs that those individuals' decisions place on other citizens and public resources (medical treatment, emergency responders' time).

I'm not a huge fan of regulating individual conduct. But, unless we are going to hold people wholly accountable for the results of their conduct, then in rare circumstances this type of regulation may be a viable option.

Regarding your other point, I agree that additional studies on the effectiveness of vaccines on people previously infected with COVID is a good idea.


----------



## Barmoley

I don't think many will choose to get sick on purpose instead of getting vaccinated just because there might be a chance of natural immunity being stronger. There are very serious risks to getting sick. There might be a few such individuals, but we shouldn't make policies based on a few individuals acting irrationally. This reason gets brought up all the time in discussions of natural immunity, and it is suggested that we shouldn't even discuss it because of this. I think this is wrong and only a theoretical problem.

The example of motor vehicle laws I am not sure about. I don't know anything about reasoning or history of motorcycle helmet laws, so don't know. On the surface it seems like in a serious motorcycle crash medical treatment, emergency responders' time, etc would still be needed helmet or not. It would be interesting to see statistics of how much public money helmets save. Again, on the surface motorcyclists not wearing helmets would make great organ donors, so helmet laws might be net negative to the society. So maybe instead of helmet laws we should have being a donor a prerequisite to getting a motorcycle license. Same for seatbelts, they clearly save lives and lower injuries, but should they actually be a law? I don't have an opinion on the subject. A lot more people drive cars in the US, so seatbelts probably save a lot more costs to the US society than motorcycle helmets. I like that my kids are forced to use seatbelts and I can't really see the negatives of seatbelts or helmets. to that point, why don't we require car drivers to wear helmets? Surely there is improvement to safety with a helmet.


----------



## big_adventure

Barmoley said:


> I don't think many will choose to get sick on purpose instead of getting vaccinated just because there might be a chance of natural immunity being stronger. There are very serious risks to getting sick. There might be a few such individuals, but we shouldn't make policies based on a few individuals acting irrationally. This reason gets brought up all the time in discussions of natural immunity, and it is suggested that we shouldn't even discuss it because of this. I think this is wrong and only a theoretical problem.
> 
> The example of motor vehicle laws I am not sure about. I don't know anything about reasoning or history of motorcycle helmet laws, so don't know. On the surface it seems like in a serious motorcycle crash medical treatment, emergency responders' time, etc would still be needed helmet or not. It would be interesting to see statistics of how much public money helmets save. Again, on the surface motorcyclists not wearing helmets would make great organ donors, so helmet laws might be net negative to the society. So maybe instead of helmet laws we should have being a donor a prerequisite to getting a motorcycle license. Same for seatbelts, they clearly save lives and lower injuries, but should they actually be a law? I don't have an opinion on the subject. A lot more people drive cars in the US, so seatbelts probably save a lot more costs to the US society than motorcycle helmets. I like that my kids are forced to use seatbelts and I can't really see the negatives of seatbelts or helmets. to that point, why don't we require car drivers to wear helmets? Surely there is improvement to safety with a helmet.



You keep making these arguments as if it's a zero sum game. You seem to be saying either we go 100% or we don't bother going. That's simply not reality.

Helmets _vastly_ decrease the need for emergency response and certainly for serious treatment. An otherwise harmless slip or whatever turns drastic if you hit your head, and a helmet stops a large amount of that risk.

The issue with vaccinations and such is that you have to draw the line somewhere. There is solid evidence (peer reviewed and everything) that one dose of Pfizer or Moderna + recovery from most covid infections is better protection than 2 doses of Pfizer or Moderna. In fact, that's the requirement in France to qualify as "fully vaccinated": 2 doses, or one dose plus recovery. It's what I had - I had Covid back in February, and got jabbed in May, as soon as I could.

People saying "I don't want to do anything at all because FREEEEEEDDDDOOOOOOM" are, yes, the villains. Period. And if the requirements for doing whatever we want include having a shot, or two shots, or three shots, damnit, sack the hell up and take a little owie for the team. 

Continuing studies are a fantastic idea, I'm in full support, but then, so is everyone with the slightest scientific bent. But while we're waiting for that, get ****ing vaccinated. Get a booster as well. It won't hurt anyone if you do. (I'm using the non-specific "you" here). Studies take a long-ass time. Covid kills people much more quickly than that. Vax mandates work to protect people's lives. Period. If the scientific consensus becomes "get a booster" then get a freaking booster. Getting a shot of vaccine on top of covid recovery definitely won't kill you or anyone else, but covid might. Get it. This just isn't complicated.


----------



## Barmoley

big_adventure said:


> You keep making these arguments as if it's a zero sum game. You seem to be saying either we go 100% or we don't bother going. That's simply not reality.



I say no such thing please don't read your bias in what I actually say.



big_adventure said:


> Helmets _vastly_ decrease the need for emergency response and certainly for serious treatment. An otherwise harmless slip or whatever turns drastic if you hit your head, and a helmet stops a large amount of that risk.



As I said I don't know. This is most likely true, but you'd have to provide proof of your statements. Just because it seems that this is true does not actually make it so without statistical data which I hope was used when helmets became law. I really don't care just not sure helmets are a good parallel to vaccines, I don't know anything about helmets or why they are law.



big_adventure said:


> The issue with vaccinations and such is that you have to draw the line somewhere. There is solid evidence (peer reviewed and everything) that one dose of Pfizer or Moderna + recovery from most covid infections is better protection than 2 doses of Pfizer or Moderna. In fact, that's the requirement in France to qualify as "fully vaccinated": 2 doses, or one dose plus recovery. It's what I had - I had Covid back in February, and got jabbed in May, as soon as I could.



This is what I want and keep on writing about yet it is lost in the desire of some to just blindly vaccinate all.

In the US recovery + 1 dose is not considered being fully vaccinated. Even though as you say



big_adventure said:


> There is solid evidence (peer reviewed and everything) that one dose of Pfizer or Moderna + recovery from most covid infections is better protection than 2 doses of Pfizer or Moderna.



In the US only 2 shots of Pfizer or Moderna or one shot of J&J is considered fully vaccinated. Regardless of the evidance that only one shot is needed for recovered. Even though it is totally irrelevant to this discussion I too had covid in February and received 2 doses of pfizer in May. It made sense to me due to my lifestyle and what was known at the time. I didn't need 2 doses from what we know now, but in the US getting just one I would not be considered fully vaccinated.



big_adventure said:


> People saying "I don't want to do anything at all because FREEEEEEDDDDOOOOOOM" are, yes, the villains. Period. And if the requirements for doing whatever we want include having a shot, or two shots, or three shots, damnit, sack the hell up and take a little owie for the team.
> 
> Continuing studies are a fantastic idea, I'm in full support, but then, so is everyone with the slightest scientific bent. But while we're waiting for that, get ****ing vaccinated. Get a booster as well. It won't hurt anyone if you do. (I'm using the non-specific "you" here). Studies take a long-ass time. Covid kills people much more quickly than that. Vax mandates work to protect people's lives. Period. If the scientific consensus becomes "get a booster" then get a freaking booster. Getting a shot of vaccine on top of covid recovery definitely won't kill you or anyone else, but covid might. Get it. This just isn't complicated.



It is complicated and scientific consensus has to be based on science, in the US it doesn't seem to be when suggesting that we should vaccinate everyone with 2 shots and possibly additional booster soon. Since as you point out there is well researched evidence that one shot is enough.

You are lucky to live in a country where vaccine shots can be wasted to boost you beyond need while the rest of the world suffers not having vaccines. It's nice to get on a soap box and scream and yell get as many shots as you want even though protection is exceedingly marginal while some don't have any. How about just getting as much as makes you very safe and donating the rest to countries that need them? We as individuals can't do it, but our governments can. So they need to be held accountable for their policies.


----------



## tcmx3

Barmoley said:


> You are lucky to live in a country where vaccine shots can be wasted to boost you beyond need while the rest of the world suffers not having vaccines. It's nice to get on a soap box and scream and yell get as many shots as you want even though protection is exceedingly marginal while some don't have any. How about just getting as much as makes you very safe and donating the rest to countries that need them? We as individuals can't do it, but our governments can. So they need to be held accountable for their policies.



that is a terribly bad faith argument.

most of what you're saying is reasonable even if I dont agree but this is not kosher IMO. the status of vaccine availability in his country is irrelevant to the validity of his point.


----------



## Barmoley

tcmx3 said:


> that is a terribly bad faith argument.
> 
> most of what you're saying is reasonable even if I dont agree but this is not kosher IMO. the status of vaccine availability in his country is irrelevant to the validity of his point.



Which of his points are you referring to? That we should continue boosting on top of boosting even if the effect is exceedingly small because it doesn’t hurt anyone while COVID might.

Do you really think that he would say the same if vaccines were very limited in his country. Be honest with yourself, would he not instead encourage all to take just enough to be very safe and share the rest. So yes availability of vaccines in his country is very relevant. Please don’t bring up the, “well him not taking the shot won’t help anyone in Ukraine”.


----------



## tcmx3

Barmoley said:


> Which of his points are you referring to? That we should continue boosting on top of boosting even if the effect is exceedingly small because it doesn’t hurt anyone while COVID might.
> 
> Do you really think that he would say the same if vaccines were very limited in his country. Be honest with yourself, would he not instead encourage all to take just enough to be very safe and share the rest. So yes availability of vaccines in his country is very relevant. Please don’t bring up the, “well him not taking the shot won’t help anyone in Ukraine”.



hypothetical and completely irrelevant.

if you dont want to engage him on the point directly then dont. and dont try and turn it on me I know the shtick and am uninterested in engaging with you if you plan to do so, again, in bad faith.


----------



## chefwp

I swear reading this today gave me some sort of needed mental catharsis!
Fixed link


----------



## chefwp

chefwp said:


> I swear reading this today gave me some sort of needed mental catharsis!
> Link


Aw shucks, the link has a bad word in it, so it's being censored...


Edit, fixed: Fixed link


----------



## chefwp




----------



## ian

I don’t understand what all the screaming is about anymore. It seems like @Barmoley is mostly questioning whether there should be a change in US policy where we don’t buy as many vaccines, or ship more overseas, and whether in the recent Biden order having had covid previously could count in lieu of at least one vaccine shot. Idk, these seem like reasonable questions. I’m not if sure I agree about the second one, since I do see potential benefits to the current approach, and the data seems to be still coming in, but on the other hand maybe it’d be worth it just to make everything slightly less polarized.

Maybe @Barmoley’s argument will seem less distressing if you just think about it as a question about future policy regarding vaccine allotment rather than about whether to yourself get vaccinated if there are shots available near you. Regarding this other question, my answer is well put in the article posted by @chefwp.


----------



## chefwp

AT5760 said:


> In principle, I agree with this statement. In practice, I don't agree at all. Protecting people that would choose to get sick has real, tangible benefits. Those that choose to get sick may get very sick and choose to seek medical attention. Those people choosing to get sick would be consuming scarce resources (time, medicine, hospital beds, etc.) that could be used by those who did not choose to get sick. Moreover, those that choose to get sick are imposing substantial monetary costs on the rest of society unless they are paying for all medical costs completely out-of-pocket. Second, those that choose to get sick can infect others - thus leading to a greater loss of life and greater consumption of resources.
> 
> Motor vehicles are a great example of where society requires people to take actions that on the surface protect only the individual being regulated - seat belt laws and motorcycle helmet laws. Those laws also limit the costs that those individuals' decisions place on other citizens and public resources (medical treatment, emergency responders' time).


Slightly off topic but I live in one of the few US states that does not require cyclists to wear helmets. I am heartened to say that I see a large percentage actually have the good sense to wear a helmet anyway while enjoying their motorcycle (my observations are anecdotal, I don't know the actual percentage). The others I've coined a special word for, I call them "donorcyclists."


----------



## big_adventure

Barmoley said:


> I say no such thing please don't read your bias in what I actually say.
> 
> 
> 
> As I said I don't know. This is most likely true, but you'd have to provide proof of your statements. Just because it seems that this is true does not actually make it so without statistical data which I hope was used when helmets became law. I really don't care just not sure helmets are a good parallel to vaccines, I don't know anything about helmets or why they are law.
> 
> 
> 
> This is what I want and keep on writing about yet it is lost in the desire of some to just blindly vaccinate all.
> 
> In the US recovery + 1 dose is not considered being fully vaccinated. Even though as you say
> 
> 
> 
> In the US only 2 shots of Pfizer or Moderna or one shot of J&J is considered fully vaccinated. Regardless of the evidance that only one shot is needed for recovered. Even though it is totally irrelevant to this discussion I too had covid in February and received 2 doses of pfizer in May. It made sense to me due to my lifestyle and what was known at the time. I didn't need 2 doses from what we know now, but in the US getting just one I would not be considered fully vaccinated.
> 
> 
> 
> It is complicated and scientific consensus has to be based on science, in the US it doesn't seem to be when suggesting that we should vaccinate everyone with 2 shots and possibly additional booster soon. Since as you point out there is well researched evidence that one shot is enough.
> 
> You are lucky to live in a country where vaccine shots can be wasted to boost you beyond need while the rest of the world suffers not having vaccines. It's nice to get on a soap box and scream and yell get as many shots as you want even though protection is exceedingly marginal while some don't have any. How about just getting as much as makes you very safe and donating the rest to countries that need them? We as individuals can't do it, but our governments can. So they need to be held accountable for their policies.



First: _most _countries don't accept the "recovered and one-shot" plan. Even France only does if the recovery is between, I believe, 3 and 12 months or something.

Second, the same studies that show that one shot + recovery is good (and probably somewhat better than "just" vaccinated) _also_ clearly show that two shots plus recovery is _better_ by a tangible degree. France simply made the decision, back when vaccines were rarer and it seemed like people would, you know, actually want the vaccines without being forced to take them, to reduce the load on the system for that small but tangible gain.

Third, we are in a changing, turbulent world here: because some asshats, a significant number of them, don't want to be vaccinated, roll-out stalled somewhat in many countries. This means more formation and distribution of variants. Up until now, some of the existing vaccines at their existing doses do pretty well against these variants, especially for preventing serious infections. But the larger the pool of the infect-able people, the larger the chance of variants forming that evade existing vaccines. Therefore, even a marginal improvement in protection for those willing to not endanger their fellow man is extremely justified, because those improvements are real and proven.

Fourth, you keep presenting this as a zero sum game simply because you are denigrating the entire system because it has some small flaws. You point these small flaws out as reasons to trash the larger, empirically effective part of it. 

Fifth, you keep harping on worldwide distribution issues as a reason not to give plenty and more to Americans, from Americans themselves. Given the long term global problems in malnutrition (literally BILLIONS of people on this planet live in some state of malnutrition) while Americans consume and _throw away_ much more than they need annually, I am led to assume that you don't do that, subsisting on minimal rice, grain and soybeans, never ever leaving anything uneaten, while yelling your lungs out about over-consumption back home. Given the massive amounts of poverty in the world, I have to assume that you are living an acetic, minimalist life, with nothing unnecessary at all and no flagrant over-consumption, and that you send half of what you earn to the impoverished in developing nations while proselytizing about that rampant over-consumption back home. No? I didn't think so.

Sixth, the US has been making choices about the vaccines based on science since the beginning. That doesn't meant that there aren't other factors. As I stated before but you glossed over, the US's prime responsibility is to ensure adequate protection for all Americans, before ensuring the same for the rest of the world. This means distributing fragile vaccines in sufficient quantities to places reachable relatively easily by everyone in the country, no matter where they live. A vaccine shortage in the US is infinitely worse for the US, its residents and for the elected and career officials who manage this stuff. The US absolutely _should_ error on the side of providing more, not fewer, vaccines for it's citizens than are strictly and completely necessary. Every country should do this, if possible.

Seventh, the issues facing vaccine distribution and supply in certain parts of the world are _overwhelmingly _not caused by consumption of available doses elsewhere. Early on, sure, but not at this time. Some places are politically challenged on the issue. Some, financially. It's a problem, and not a small one. But that being a problem elsewhere doesn't mean that the US shouldn't protect, and even overprotect, its own residents. And they _definitely_ shouldn't decide to "wait for perfection" in the middle of a global pandemic. Peer-reviewed scientific studies take time, and getting multiple different studies run, reviewed, compared and published takes more time still, and frankly, we don't have that much time here. It would be different if people would just get the freaking vaccine, but the US has shown us that some people value invective over injections.

Eight, you know effectively nothing about me at all, please refrain from making personal judgments on what I believe and why that are outside of the context of what I've actually said.

Anyway, I can keep making points that you are going to continue to not listen to, but I think I've already hit my tl;dr for the day.


----------



## Barmoley

big_adventure said:


> First: _most _countries don't accept the "recovered and one-shot" plan. Even France only does if the recovery is between, I believe, 3 and 12 months or something.
> 
> Second, the same studies that show that one shot + recovery is good (and probably somewhat better than "just" vaccinated) _also_ clearly show that two shots plus recovery is _better_ by a tangible degree. France simply made the decision, back when vaccines were rarer and it seemed like people would, you know, actually want the vaccines without being forced to take them, to reduce the load on the system for that small but tangible gain.
> 
> Third, we are in a changing, turbulent world here: because some asshats, a significant number of them, don't want to be vaccinated, roll-out stalled somewhat in many countries. This means more formation and distribution of variants. Up until now, some of the existing vaccines at their existing doses do pretty well against these variants, especially for preventing serious infections. But the larger the pool of the infect-able people, the larger the chance of variants forming that evade existing vaccines. Therefore, even a marginal improvement in protection for those willing to not endanger their fellow man is extremely justified, because those improvements are real and proven.
> 
> Fourth, you keep presenting this as a zero sum game simply because you are denigrating the entire system because it has some small flaws. You point these small flaws out as reasons to trash the larger, empirically effective part of it.
> 
> Fifth, you keep harping on worldwide distribution issues as a reason not to give plenty and more to Americans, from Americans themselves. Given the long term global problems in malnutrition (literally BILLIONS of people on this planet live in some state of malnutrition) while Americans consume and _throw away_ much more than they need annually, I am led to assume that you don't do that, subsisting on minimal rice, grain and soybeans, never ever leaving anything uneaten, while yelling your lungs out about over-consumption back home. Given the massive amounts of poverty in the world, I have to assume that you are living an acetic, minimalist life, with nothing unnecessary at all and no flagrant over-consumption, and that you send half of what you earn to the impoverished in developing nations while proselytizing about that rampant over-consumption back home. No? I didn't think so.
> 
> Sixth, the US has been making choices about the vaccines based on science since the beginning. That doesn't meant that there aren't other factors. As I stated before but you glossed over, the US's prime responsibility is to ensure adequate protection for all Americans, before ensuring the same for the rest of the world. This means distributing fragile vaccines in sufficient quantities to places reachable relatively easily by everyone in the country, no matter where they live. A vaccine shortage in the US is infinitely worse for the US, its residents and for the elected and career officials who manage this stuff. The US absolutely _should_ error on the side of providing more, not fewer, vaccines for it's citizens than are strictly and completely necessary. Every country should do this, if possible.
> 
> Seventh, the issues facing vaccine distribution and supply in certain parts of the world are _overwhelmingly _not caused by consumption of available doses elsewhere. Early on, sure, but not at this time. Some places are politically challenged on the issue. Some, financially. It's a problem, and not a small one. But that being a problem elsewhere doesn't mean that the US shouldn't protect, and even overprotect, its own residents. And they _definitely_ shouldn't decide to "wait for perfection" in the middle of a global pandemic. Peer-reviewed scientific studies take time, and getting multiple different studies run, reviewed, compared and published takes more time still, and frankly, we don't have that much time here. It would be different if people would just get the freaking vaccine, but the US has shown us that some people value invective over injections.
> 
> Eight, you know effectively nothing about me at all, please refrain from making personal judgments on what I believe and why that are outside of the context of what I've actually said.
> 
> Anyway, I can keep making points that you are going to continue to not listen to, but I think I've already hit my tl;dr for the day.



@ian gets what I am saying maybe he can explain it better. I keep on talking about one thing and you keep on bringing up everything else and accusing me of exactly what you are doing.


----------



## Luftmensch

@Barmoley

Perhaps you and I share more views in common than might be obvious. 

Like you noted earlier, the Israeli study has not passed peer review. Until then it is merely 'interesting'. Drawing strong conclusions based off the study is premature. The study is also not advocating for any particular health management position. It is simply presenting and analysis.

If we start from the position that the study is valid, it could also be used to support my point of view. Isnt one of the conclusions: previously infected & _vaccinated_ individuals have the best immune response?

In fact you and I would probably agree that:

unvaccinated < vaccinated < previously infected & vaccinated

I don't think this is controversial? From my laughably limited understanding of immunology, this result is to be expected. The controversy in this discussion, such that there is one, is where the category 'previously infected & _un_vaccinated' should be placed. And how this category should be managed.

Again, my preference is to defer to large bodies. They know better than me. Australia is adopting the EU coding system for vaccine passports. As @big_adventure points out, the EU recognises recovery + one vaccine dose as fully vaccinated. However, this is _not_ natural immunity. Recognising recovery + one vaccine dose as 'fully vaccinated' is not inconsistent with the findings of the Israeli study. It is not inconsistent with my position. And, it is not inconsistent with your position (one dose is saved). You will be pleased to know the EU is effectively treating recovered people as vaccinated for 180 days - so long as they hold valid certificates (as far as I can tell).

Given Australia is using this technology, it remains to be seen whether we layer a higher standard for vaccination on top of the system. I can imagine we might initially do this. In time we are likely to relax our position to align with our trading partners. At this stage... who knows? I don't.

Getting back to my preference for referring to more knowledgeable sources, I guess it is a "choose your own adventure". The Israeli study counters observations made in this study (*published* two months ago). I am sorry to say, it is a more impenetrable read! The press-release is more digestible. If quotes are an accepted medium for summarising an article, this is what a co-author says in the press-release:



> What this work has shown us is that current observations about vaccines show they offer a much broader protection against COVID-19 and its variants than the body’s natural immune response following infection, which is usually only protective against the variant of the virus that the person was infected with. We, therefore, should not rely on the body’s natural immune response to control this pandemic, but rather the broadly protective vaccines that are available.



Make what you will of this information in the context of the unpublished Israeli study. I don't mean to trash the Israeli study. It just needs to be treated with caution until it has passed/failed review. In either case, I will note that they both point towards the position that previously infected & vaccinated is _better_ than previously infected & _un_vaccinated.

But then, I think you would acknowledge this as well?  In which case, perhaps our biggest difference is just about resource management? Here I will note; science does not tell us how to manage a scenario. It is a process used to explain phenomena and help answer some questions. Simply appealing for more data and analysis will not necessarily tell us _exactly_ how to manage complex trade-offs. Hopefully it will lower the uncertainty of some of our decisions and add precision to our processes.

If this discussion is a resource management issue, I am not yet convinced of the benefits you imply might follow from naturally immunity. And I certainly dont think they stack up against the cost. As discussed, the added complexity to public health management does not look like it would result in a useful amount of benefit *_to me_*. This is particularly true given these individuals would benefit from the vaccine. And particularly true given the cohort is a minority.

America has approximately 42M documented cases of COVID... and a population of 333M. If all those people did not want to be vaccinated... that is a large minority of 12% with natural immunity. It represents a potential saving of 12% of the vaccine supply (6% if you consider it a one dose saving). I am not convinced this potential 'excess' saving would have a material effect on global supply.

In Australia, 80,400 people have had documented cases of COVID. Our population is 25.7M. If all those people did not want to be vaccinated... that is a tiny minority of 0.3% of the vaccine supply. Clearly Australia's potential 'excess' is just noise in the data - it doesnt even feature in the discussion.

Here I am just looking at the potential to save vaccines by relying on natural immunity. I don't see these savings as significant. Of course, it ignores all the potential benefits of vaccinating that cohort. Similarly, it ignores added complexity to public health management and distribution issues that we have already discussed!

I am willing to meet you in the middle and settle for previously infected & one dose-vaccinated as a policy. But at this stage I remain unconvinced that previously infected & _un_vaccinated is good for the individual or the pack. And I am prepared to be wrong... but I would be surprised if public health officials adopt previously infected & _un_vaccinated as a durable policy. If they do, I will reverse my position.


----------



## natto

ian said:


> I don’t understand what all the screaming is about anymore


Me too. It's a while since covid was researched enough to show the options we got. Research proceeds, but the basics got clear. Thet leaves the question open. how to balance different interests. 

Germany got a government of two partys. One caring for people, the other for economy. This way lost income got some compensation. Of course restaurants and bars got compensations too. As this is germany, how to protect econymy was part of every equation, often unsaid. One result are alltime highs at the stock.

And we will elect a new government on 26th. It looks like we will need at least three partys to build a majority. This might become one of the elections where some change is possible.

To care for covid took a lot of money. What about fridays for future with all the money gone? A reduction of resource consumption that matters will be expensive. Only rich countries can afford this. Germanys idea is to develope and sell tecnologie and become richer, no cost in sight. Remind you, elections upcoming... ...tldr, back on topic


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Merkel has been in power for a long time. She has been around for several US presidents.

Is there a time limit in Germany or person can be elected over & over until defeated or decide not to run again.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

chefwp said:


> Slightly off topic but I live in one of the few US states that does not require cyclists to wear helmets. I am heartened to say that I see a large percentage actually have the good sense to wear a helmet anyway while enjoying their motorcycle (my observations are anecdotal, I don't know the actual percentage). The others I've coined a special word for, I call them "donorcyclists."


Same here no helmet law. Being a two wheel junky Bicycles & Motorcycles most my life.
Still around thanks to a helmet.

People need laws to protect them from own stupidity.. Hikers get lost in Hawaii & have to get rescued. Going into unknown treks with no water. I've hiked plenty these days a charged smart phone & solar phone charger go with me .
Standing out on wet rocks where water runoff is active. Getting washed off rocks when big wave comes. It happens every year most with tourist. Tourist die in Hawaii.


----------



## natto

Keith Sinclair said:


> Merkel has been in power for a long time. She has been around for several US presidents.
> 
> Is there a time limit in Germany or person can be elected over & over until defeated or decide not to run again.


No, there is no limit I know of. But she didn't candidate again. It looks like she could have made the race some more times.


----------



## chefwp

Unmasked, unvaccinated, and unmuzzled free thinker can now add 'unalive' to her list.
This may come across as Schadenfreude but please let me be very clear. I am in no way happy that people are suffering and dying from their own stupidity, in fact her death makes me very sad, it was so needless and preventable.

calfornia-anti-vax-mum-dies-of-covid


----------



## Keith Sinclair

big_adventure said:


> Japan has a huuuuuuuuge vax issue though - the country was under 5% vax'ed when the Olympics kicked off.
> 
> Most of Western Europe is much further along than the States, and it shows in the case rates. I can't say if it's a good thing to go maskless packed in with 100K people, but when you know that the vax rate is pushing 80% and the vax/neg test rate is 100% to get into the event, well, risk is mitigated.
> 
> In the US, there are too many people going all Braveheart on this particular soapbox.
> 
> And therefore, the US case toll and death toll is approaching 25% of the world's total per day.



Looks like you have a point. Watched on TV that thousands packed together at football games could be super spreader events. So far it has not happened over two weeks out. It's still
early in season, but checking vaccine apps to get in games seems to be working.


----------



## chefwp

Keith Sinclair said:


> Looks like you have a point. Watched on TV that thousands packed together at football games could be super spreader events. So far it has not happened over two weeks out. It's still
> early in season, but checking vaccine apps to get in games seems to be working.


There are other consequences of packing people into stadiums, Pittsburgh dad's weekly reflections on the most recent Steelers' game (home opener loss to the Raiders) he pointed out the following, I'm paraphrasing: It was a mistake to allow fans back in the arena, Ben is old, and old people don't like loud noises!"


----------



## natto

The unvaccinated are pushed some more now. Restaurants and bars can choose between opening without restrictions with vaccinated and recovered people only. Allowing tested people to join the party means less seats, closing earlier for some. Tests are free here, but only for another few days. 

Some other coutries in europe got harder restrictions for unvaccinated people. There was a close relation between restrictions and increasing vaccination rates.


----------



## chefwp

natto said:


> The unvaccinated are pushed some more now. Restaurants and bars can choose between opening without restrictions with vaccinated and recovered people only. Allowing tested people to join the party means less seats, closing earlier for some. Tests are free here, but only for another few days.
> 
> Some other coutries in europe got harder restrictions for unvaccinated people. There was a close relation between restrictions and increasing vaccination rates.


I have a friend who runs a popular music club near Washington DC. A few months ago they limited admission to those people who are vaccinated. Despite all the angry comments they received form the local mouth breathers, their decision has really been a good one for their business. It turns out that vaccinated people are more willing to buy tickets and pack into a club to hear their favorite live act when they can reasonably believe they are not sitting next to the unvaccinated.


----------



## natto

We got a insurance paying 2/3 of our income when we become ill. People in quarantaine get 2/3 too. This will change to nothing for unvaccinated people. in a few weeks.

The discussion about stealing their rights and freedom is firing up again, about making vaccination mandatory from behind. But they never care for the rights of people beyond their own group. 

Here around are some people firing up the feel of beeing betrayed and exploited by the "others". The others may be pedestrians, the government or the Weltverschwörung, anyone will do the job. With covid they feel cheated for their constitutional rights. However, once feeling cheated everyone will support the leader who will fight the problem. Not supporting him would be stupid, or not?

Idon't care for this "leaders", they got the same rights as we all. As long as they don't violate laws they are free to do what they do. Making people angry is no crime.

My point is the people made angry. Enough people made angry will change our election on sunday. They are part of the game, of the society. some are our neighbours or friends. 

I can't help it, this is important, but I got no idea what to do.


----------



## MarcelNL

the observation that 'others' are to blame is pretty universal IME, and appliccable to many topics...it somehow appears to be genetically encoded into us humans....entitlement issort of an extension of that issue and it seems to be inversely correlatedwith IQ


----------



## tim37

The unvaccinated who are dying are doing a good job of purging the gene pool of stupidity.


----------



## ian

tim37 said:


> The unvaccinated who are dying are doing a good job of purging the gene pool of stupidity.



Except that they take others down with them by spreading the virus even more…

Edit in response to @spaceconvoy’s comment: this post was mainly an argument against isolating off the unvaccinated and saying “good riddance to them, haha”, since their actions don’t just affect them. Didn’t mean to call them stupid, although I see that the post can be read that way. However, I think that in the absence of specific and unusual circumstances it’s a terrible and misguided choice.


----------



## spaceconvoy

So much moral superiority... If you believe the reason people refuse vaccines is because they're stupid or selfish, then you're just as small minded and tribalistic as they are. More importantly, publicly airing your animosity only makes you feel better while solidifying their resistance. Good job culture warriors for making the pandemic worse.


----------



## MarcelNL

if those 'others' are vaccinated that risk is not very high IMO, but in principle you are right.


----------



## ian

MarcelNL said:


> if those 'others' are vaccinated that risk is not very high IMO, but in principle you are right.



It's more than principle, I think. As an extreme example, if the world were 100% vaccinated the virus would not be able to spread nearly as fast, and might even die out. Any reduction in the rapidity of spread can have a huge effect, so every person that decides not to decrease their personal risk of acting as a vector contributes to the continuation of the pandemic. Breakthrough cases may be few and mild in comparison to cases among the unvaxed, but there are still significantly many by normal standards. Plus, there are lots of people like my 6 yr old that can't get vaxed yet (hopefully that'll change soon), but are still in danger. Finally, everyone should do what they can to fight the pandemic so we don't have to live like this forever, which is also a cost. There are tradeoffs (it's not that everyone should become a hermit for the next year, even though that would also help), but getting vaxed has so little cost (maybe it's hard psychologically for some) that not doing it is irresponsible absent extenuating circumstances.


----------



## tcmx3

spaceconvoy said:


> So much moral superiority... If you believe the reason people refuse vaccines is because they're stupid or selfish, then you're just as small minded and tribalistic as they are. More importantly, publicly airing your animosity only makes you feel better while solidifying their resistance. Good job culture warriors for making the pandemic worse.



the whole "hearts and minds" thing youre shilling is complete bull.

If Im not going to change someone's mind, and Im not, Im at least going to say what I think. Which is that it is pure, ugly selfishness. And that anyone who can get vaccinated and wont is either a bad person or so down the well of disinformation they need an intervention.

btw Im sympathetic to people whose work wont give them the recovery days or who dont have insurance and dont believe it's not a lie this one time when it's always a lie. those people dont post here though.


----------



## chefwp

spaceconvoy said:


> So much moral superiority... If you believe the reason people refuse vaccines is because they're stupid or selfish, then you're just as small minded and tribalistic as they are. More importantly, publicly airing your animosity only makes you feel better while solidifying their resistance. Good job culture warriors for making the pandemic worse.


Name calling and put downs aside, I think society needs to understand why people aren't getting vaccinated. There is not one reason. I am willing to go out on a limb and say some people are not for very stupid reasons, ergo, yes, it makes them look stupid. This has been studied to some extent. According to the online news organization vox.com, these are the top reasons:

Reason 1: Lack of access, real or perceived
Reason 2: Covid-19 isn’t seen as a threat
Reason 3: Vaccine side effects
Reason 4: Lack of trust in the vaccines
Reason 5: Lack of trust in institutions
Reason 6: A variety of conspiracy theories

If you pay attention to a variety of news organizations, you will notice that there seems to be an interest in running stories about the victims of Covid-19 that fall into some of the following categories: people that denied there is a pandemic, people that thought there were no real grave risks to contracting it, or people that had, when alive, publicly misinformed their fellow citizens with misinformation and conspiracy theories. If you can overlook the obvious moralizing and the feelings of Schadenfreude the articles might induce for a moment, is it a valid question to ask, "do making these stories public help sway people to making better decisions?" I think the answer is 'it should,' but as you pointed out, people are incredibly dug-in to their positions and things like facts, scientific analysis, and even these anecdotal stories probably is not going to sway many, which is a shame.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Another pregnant mother died here. Many women felt that didn't want to take vaccine might harm the developing fetus. These aren't bad people just misinformed there are many to feed into that.


----------



## Barmoley

ian said:


> It's more than principle, I think. As an extreme example, if the world were 100% vaccinated the virus would not be able to spread nearly as fast, and might even die out. Any reduction in the rapidity of spread can have a huge effect, so every person that decides not to decrease their personal risk of acting as a vector contributes to the continuation of the pandemic. Breakthrough cases may be few and mild in comparison to cases among the unvaxed, but there are still significantly many by normal standards. Plus, there are lots of people like my 6 yr old that can't get vaxed yet (hopefully that'll change soon), but are still in danger. Finally, everyone should do what they can to fight the pandemic so we don't have to live like this forever, which is also a cost. There are tradeoffs (it's not that everyone should become a hermit for the next year, even though that would also help), but getting vaxed has so little cost (maybe it's hard psychologically for some) that not doing it is irresponsible absent extenuating circumstances.


Fortunately, serious cases among children and young adults are very rare. Delta has been claimed to be more dangerous for the young, probably from just being more contagious, but even delta carries very low risk. 

There is an argument that there might be some long term neurological damage from covid and that might affect children, but this hasn't been backed up by data so far, might change in the future.

I agree with @MarcelNL that if all vulnerable would get vaccinated there would be a lot less deaths and serious illness. Some can't due to medical reasons, the number of these is relatively small and some choose not to. Why vulnerable don't want to get the vaccine is puzzling to me  

As far as getting rid of the virus permanently, it doesn't seem to be likely anytime soon. At the moment it looks like it will become more alike to seasonal flu, which kills people every year and we continue to live with it. It might disappear, just at the moment doesn't look likely.


----------



## MarcelNL

IMO the biggest challenge at hand is to get whatever decently effective vaccine (as in effective in keeping folks from serious effects of Covid, not not getting it) to the rest of the world...just tlike @Barmoley mentioned earlier.

The naysayers in the end can get vaccinated if the hassle is too much or if the right methods are found to communicate with them, provided the rest does not budge on restrictions...those without actual access to vaccines should now be targeted first IMO.


----------



## daveb

Here comes stupid:









NY governor refusing to budge on vaccine mandate for nurses: You're replaceable


Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul remained adamant that healthcare workers get vaccinated by Sept. 27 in the stare or be replaced.




www.foxnews.com


----------



## MarcelNL

Now that is a bluff in ANY country around the world...let's assume that even a mere 15 percent of nurses ultimately need to be replaces it is impossible due to a long existent shortage of nurses....


----------



## spaceconvoy

tcmx3 said:


> the whole "hearts and minds" thing youre shilling is complete bull.
> 
> If Im not going to change someone's mind, and Im not, Im at least going to say what I think. Which is that it is pure, ugly selfishness. And that anyone who can get vaccinated and wont is either a bad person or so down the well of disinformation they need an intervention.
> 
> btw Im sympathetic to people whose work wont give them the recovery days or who dont have insurance and dont believe it's not a lie this one time when it's always a lie. those people dont post here though.


What makes you qualified to determine it's 'complete bull'? Unless you're an expert in public health, I'd suggest you listen to those who are. Not me, but this is what they're saying. We've seen exactly the same dynamic around seatbelt use in the 80s and condom usage when AIDS first appeared. Do you have any evidence that your preferred method of public shaming works, or does it just feel cathartic. How are you any less selfish?

I'm assuming you believe in science and share the goal of increasing the percentage of vaccinated people, perhaps I'm mistaken. But hey, at least you have your moral superiority and righteous indignation.


----------



## chefwp

The repercussions of remaining unvaccinated continue to be more than just the failure to protect onself and one's community. 






In areas inundated with coronavirus patients, hospitals have postponed treatments and surgeries for people with other serious conditions.


----------



## tcmx3

spaceconvoy said:


> What makes you qualified to determine it's 'complete bull'? Unless you're an expert in public health, I'd suggest you listen to those who are. Not me, but this is what they're saying. We've seen exactly the same dynamic around seatbelt use in the 80s and condom usage when AIDS first appeared. Do you have any evidence that your preferred method of public shaming works, or does it just feel cathartic. How are you any less selfish?
> 
> I'm assuming you believe in science and share the goal of increasing the percentage of vaccinated people, perhaps I'm mistaken. But hey, at least you have your moral superiority and righteous indignation.



I wasnt born yesterday.

I know that you and everyone else who pulls this shtick isnt doing it for "the science" or for "civility", but instead to stop any discussion that rightly names selfish behavior as selfish, or in other cases often used to shut down any valid criticism of people being ****y more generally.

If you are a healthy adult who could just take a trip down to the Walgreens and get your vaccine and you choose not to you're selfish. That's it. There's no CDC guideline telling me to be nice to the little babies who can't handle being accurately named for their awfulness. You can try the sleight of hand here by saying it's about "the science" or condom use for aids but you are talking to a person who works with causality professionally so unfortunately such basic tricks dont really do much for me.


----------



## chefwp

Barmoley said:


> Fortunately, serious cases among children and young adults are very rare. Delta has been claimed to be more dangerous for the young, probably from just being more contagious, but even delta carries very low risk.


I'm sure that is very little solace to the parents of the 500-or-so children that have died in the US from covid so far, and that number will only grow. However, as a percentage of the population, you are correct, it is still rare, no argument there. Yet don't discount the relative risk that children bring to communities as potential vectors of the disease, especially with the push to return them to school. This is exceptionally true in places like Florida and Texas where the idiot governors are putting their own political ambitions above all as they tried to prevent schools from having mask mandates. Parents with underlying health conditions or that are caretakers to vulnerable elderly people I know had very mixed feelings about returning their children to school and not because of the risk to the children themselves, but the potential to undo all the precautions they took in the previous year to protect the vulnerable members of their households. I had mixed feelings myself returning my own kids, particularly the one too young to get inoculated, to in-person studies. Be that as it may, I could not envision them having another year like the one prior, kids need to go back, at least that is the opinion I came to and so far still hold. Of course this could all change rapidly, if the numbers get really bad <oh please no>, kids might be returning to cyber at-home learning whether we like it or not and it may not be a parents' choice.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

There are many multigenerational homes here
Housing is so expensive. Kids & grandkids live with grandparents.

My niece who was a school teacher is home schooling her kids with help of computer. During this covid thing we are not out of yet.

Many have to work so are glad schools are open again.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Might add seniors are % wise almost completely vaccinated.


----------



## tcmx3

Keith Sinclair said:


> There are many multigenerational homes here
> Housing is so expensive. Kids & grandkids live with grandparents.
> 
> My niece who was a school teacher is home schooling her kids with help of computer. During this covid thing we are not out of yet.
> 
> *Many have to work so are glad schools are open again.*



if only there we some kind of risk pooling we could do such that when vulnerable members of our group were hard hit by things beyond their control a tiny percentage the group's combined resources could keep them afloat until the situation is resolved.

too bad no such thing can exist here.


----------



## spaceconvoy

tcmx3 said:


> I wasnt born yesterday.
> 
> I know that you and everyone else who pulls this shtick isnt doing it for "the science" or for "civility", but instead to stop any discussion that rightly names selfish behavior as selfish, or in other cases often used to shut down any valid criticism of people being ****y more generally.
> 
> If you are a healthy adult who could just take a trip down to the Walgreens and get your vaccine and you choose not to you're selfish. That's it. There's no CDC guideline telling me to be nice to the little babies who can't handle being accurately named for their awfulness. You can try the sleight of hand here by saying it's about "the science" or condom use for aids but you are talking to a person who works with causality professionally so unfortunately such basic tricks dont really do much for me.


You're missing my point. I agree with you that people who refuse the vaccine are making the world a worse place for entirely selfish reasons. My point is that so are you. If you actually cared about increasing vaccine uptake, you wouldn't loudly proclaim your judgment on a public forum. Go ahead and vent all you want in private among others who you're certain share your sentiments. But public shaming will only solidify resistance among any unvaccinated lurkers who might be reading this. You are playing a small part in prolonging this pandemic by selfishly indulging in a puritanical desire to shame bad actors publicly. I share your anger with their behavior, but your method is entirely counter-productive if the goal is to get more people vaccinated.


----------



## daveb

daveb said:


> And on another tangent - requiring all persons in the healthcare industry to be vaccinated will mean losing the 40% or so of healthcare professionals that have elected not to get the jab. In the buildings I've managed it's well over 50% of the dietary workforce that have chosen not to jab. Where da phuck are their replacements going to come from? Staffing is already at a crisis point - the latest feel good initiative will shut down healthcare in the states as we know it.





daveb said:


> There certainly is a movement in this country to villainize people who have not gotten vaxed - for whatever reason. Deny employment, attendance, participation, etc simply to drive the vax numbers up is not only folly but will have unintended but predictable consequences.





daveb said:


> Here comes stupid:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> NY governor refusing to budge on vaccine mandate for nurses: You're replaceable
> 
> 
> Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul remained adamant that healthcare workers get vaccinated by Sept. 27 in the stare or be replaced.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.foxnews.com





MarcelNL said:


> Now that is a bluff in ANY country around the world...let's assume that even a mere 15 percent of nurses ultimately need to be replaces it is impossible due to a long existent shortage of nurses....



Politicians don't have to bluff, they can do stupid without consequence because there is no accountability.

For the day job I manage dietary services for healthcare facilities. In my current facility, 1 of 9 of my staff is vaxed. I was asked to assess nearby facilities (same company) and that 10(ish) percent is typical. Housekeeping staff is about same. Nursing and direct care has been and remains at about 40%

These are a good percentage of the people who have fed, cleaned up after and cared for the Covid patients over the last year and a half. There is no magic want that can be waived to replace these people and except for the "feel good" of doing something it won't accomplish anything (Except of course turning healthcare into more of a CF than it is now).

And when these likely unconstitutional decrees are thrown out of court, where does the shitshow go next?


----------



## tcmx3

spaceconvoy said:


> You're missing my point. I agree with you that people who refuse the vaccine are making the world a worse place for entirely selfish reasons. My point is that so are you. If you actually cared about increasing vaccine uptake, you wouldn't loudly proclaim your judgment on a public forum. Go ahead and vent all you want in private among others who you're certain share your sentiments. But public shaming will only solidify resistance among any unvaccinated lurkers who might be reading this. You are playing a small part in prolonging this pandemic by selfishly indulging in a puritanical desire to shame bad actors publicly. I share your anger with their behavior, but your method is entirely counter-productive if the goal is to get more people vaccinated.



blah blah blah.

heard this a million times about dealing with transphobes, homophobes, racists, etc.

your premise that being mean to anti-vaxxers is driving their anti-vaxx behavior is just obviously wrong.

what will cause vaccine uptake is when their kids die. not when I politely ask them to stop being bad actors.

anyway done with this line of conversation. I can only tolerate so much wrongness in the same vein. not only will I be continuing to state the truth about such people here, I will do so everywhere.


----------



## gregfisk

It’s hard to imagine that there are people who believe that they are NOT being selfish when they won’t get vaccinated. The information that is available makes it extremely clear that vaccines are safe and that they save lives. People who won’t get vaccinated are putting themselves and every other person they come in contact with at risk of dying. That is all I have and need to say.


----------



## Luftmensch

spaceconvoy said:


> If you believe the reason people refuse vaccines is because they're stupid or *selfish*, then you're just as small minded and tribalistic as they are.



True, I think it is likely unproductive to call people 'stupid'. But using the term 'selfish' is legitimate for a certain class of individuals.

Extreme libertarians who choose not to take the vaccine, simply as a revolt against public 'authority', are close to the textbook definition of selfish. This is particularly true if they claim to acknowledge the science. Given that public health orders and vaccines are designed to stymie community spread, they are designed to protect the collective, not necessarily the individual. If person holds the position that their right to 'choose' is more important than public health and vociferously (or quietly) decide not to participate as some form of misguided protest... they are being _selfish_. I don't really see how you can argue otherwise?

I am not going to argue about libertarianism as a philosophy.... however, in certain situations it does strike me as hypocrisy if libertarians balk at being called selfish...


----------



## ian

daveb said:


> And on another tangent - requiring all persons in the healthcare industry to be vaccinated will mean losing the 40% or so of healthcare professionals that have elected not to get the jab. In the buildings I've managed it's well over 50% of the dietary workforce that have chosen not to jab.



Fwiw, this article indicates that in healthcare it's now 27% unvaxed and 15% opposed to getting a shot. I imagine the number of people that would rather quit their job than get a shot is significantly lower than 15%.

If I understand correctly, though, your point is that some industries can't afford even the small workforce reduction that would come with a vaccine mandate. Fair enough. Maybe for people in those industries, for the time being we have to rely on leisure-restricting inducements and hope for the eventual broader acceptance of vaccines. 

It's definitely important not to demonize people if you want to convince them of something, and I totally agree that sometimes the rhetoric here goes in that direction. But I don't think that in general, denying employment, attendance and participation is demonization. It's a public safety measure. Most places seem to be also letting you in to leisure events with an antibody test or a PCR test, which also seems like a good idea. If that's allowed in lieu of vaccination, it seems even harder to call it demonization. And as has been said many times, it's crazy how the covid vaccines are so politicized but noone seems to care that they're required to get the MMR vaccine. (Although it seems like a couple politicians just realized they were being hypocritical and started campaigning against all vaccines. )


----------



## spaceconvoy

tcmx3 said:


> your premise that being mean to anti-vaxxers is driving their anti-vaxx behavior is just obviously wrong.



You're misrepresenting me - not driving, but bolstering. What evidence do you have of this 'obvious wrongness'? It is not my premise, but clearly what the science says if you listen to anyone with expertise in public health and/or sociology.



tcmx3 said:


> what will cause vaccine uptake is when their kids die. not when I politely ask them to stop being bad actors.



Yes, you're somewhat right about this. They will change their behavior when they see consequences in their own communities. They also respond to messages delivered by people whom they trust. They will only respond negatively to self-righteous shame-dispensing strangers, no matter how correct the message is. Have you perhaps not interacted with many other humans? This is pretty basic, and hard to understand how you consider this a false premise.

Also, you're mistakenly assuming that I'm asking you to be nice to them. Not at all. I'm saying that as an anonymous internet poster you're completely unhelpful no matter what your message is. Positive messages will be simply ignored because you hold no status in their communities. But negative messages are actively harmful and increase resistance. You seem to believe you have an important role to play here, but have you considered that you're simply powerless to make any positive impact in this situation?



tcmx3 said:


> not only will I be continuing to state the truth about such people here, I will do so everywhere.



Soldier on culture warrior! Keep making the world a worse place while wildly overestimating your ability to affect the behavior of strangers on the internet (yes I'm aware of the irony). Keep on fighting because it feels good, whatever the results might be. You're obviously right, and that's what's most important here.


----------



## Luftmensch

spaceconvoy said:


> Good job culture warriors for making the pandemic worse.





spaceconvoy said:


> You are playing a small part in prolonging this pandemic by selfishly indulging in a puritanical desire to shame bad actors publicly.



I agree that forcing people into polarised positions is _not productive_... It is a bad way to conduct good-faith public discourse. This is particularly true for public figures.

But come now.... claiming that "culture warriors" are in some way similar to anti-vaccine, anti public health order people is a looooooong bow. 

Anti-vaccine, anti public health order people have a material effect on keeping R0 values from decreasing as quickly as they could. "Culture warriors" may have some effect on R0 values by polarising people... but it has got to be negligible values.


Just to be clear, I agree with you about trying to keep a level head... but lets not use the wrong reasons for doing so...


----------



## spaceconvoy

Luftmensch said:


> "Culture warriors" may have some effect on R0 values by polarising people... but it has got to be negligible values.


I agree it's likely a small effect, but greater than zero. Yes one random person on a niche message board is negligible, but I don't think the collectively-built atmosphere of shame and polarization is negligible at all. It's not a stretch to equate anti-vax people with their antagonists if you understand how emotionally-charged opposition only fuels resistance. It's lower-order primate behavior with fancier vocabulary.


----------



## Luftmensch

spaceconvoy said:


> I agree it's likely a small effect, but greater than zero.





For sure. It is not a logical impossibility. N is most definitely >= 1.



spaceconvoy said:


> It's not a stretch to equate anti-vax people with their antagonists if you understand how emotionally-charged opposition only fuels resistance.



I understand the similarities you are using to draw this argument. I think both sides do an awfully good job at baiting and yelling at the other... Both sides are certainly equally culpable of creating tribal conditions. Beyond that equivalence, I would still say it is an imbalanced argument.

Epidemiologists and mathematicians don't include tribalism as a factor in modelling the pandemic. It may appear as a footnote... but the fact that it doesn't appear as an explanatory variable should tell you something. At _best_ it is of second-order importance - and I am sure even that is a big stretch. 

Don't get me wrong. Again, everybody should try take the high road. But one group _directly_ impacts public health through their actions. The other group _may_ have an impact on the way a small group of people _think_. These are two very different propositions.

I guess it is also worth pointing out we are far better at self radicalising than being influenced by others. True; tribalism likely makes everybody more stubborn. I would agree with that.... but I find it difficult to believe there is a significant population of people who have been polarised into one camp or another through bad faith arguments from the 'opposition'. Where these people exist, I suspect the main cause for choosing a 'side' is really due to underlying, pre-existing personal biases and cultural context. Put another way, given enough time, most people within this group were probably going to join their chosen 'side' anyway. Beyond this minority, most people indulge in their own bubbles.... I have no shame in saying that I do.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

tcmx3 said:


> blah blah blah.
> 
> heard this a million times about dealing with transphobes, homophobes, racists, etc.
> 
> your premise that being mean to anti-vaxxers is driving their anti-vaxx behavior is just obviously wrong.
> 
> what will cause vaccine uptake is when their kids die. not when I politely ask them to stop being bad actors.
> 
> anyway done with this line of conversation. I can only tolerate so much wrongness in the same vein. not only will I be continuing to state the truth about such people here, I will do so everywhere.



Bro think you better read this book if you want to get point across.


----------



## spaceconvoy

Luftmensch said:


> For sure. It is not a logical impossibility. N is most definitely >= 1.
> 
> 
> 
> I understand the similarities you are using to draw this argument. I think both sides do an awfully good job at baiting and yelling at the other... Both sides are certainly equally culpable of creating tribal conditions. Beyond that equivalence, I would still say it is an imbalanced argument.
> 
> Epidemiologists and mathematicians don't include tribalism as a factor in modelling the pandemic. It may appear as a footnote... but the fact that it doesn't appear as an explanatory variable should tell you something. At _best_ it is of second-order importance - and I am sure even that is a big stretch.
> 
> Don't get me wrong. Again, everybody should try take the high road. But one group _directly_ impacts public health through their actions. The other group _may_ have an impact on the way a small group of people _think_. These are two very different propositions.
> 
> I guess it is also worth pointing out we are far better at self radicalising than being influenced by others. True; tribalism likely makes everybody more stubborn. I would agree with that.... but I find it difficult to believe there is a significant population of people who have been polarised into one camp or another through bad faith arguments from the 'opposition'. Where these people exist, I suspect the main cause for choosing a 'side' is really due to underlying, pre-existing personal biases and cultural context. Put another way, given enough time, most people within this group were probably going to join their chosen 'side' anyway. Beyond this minority, most people indulge in their own bubbles.... I have no shame in saying that I do.


I think you're wrong to assume that because scientists haven't measured something it's probably not an important factor. One of the blind spots in many areas of science is the tendency to study what is easily quantifiable, for purely practical reasons. Measuring political polarization is far more difficult than measuring mask usage, not to mention beyond of the training of most epidemiologists. This is compounded by the inaccessibility of this data - we know facebook has revoked access to other data for researchers who have been critical of them. Can we be sure that anyone is able to see the full picture?Another factor here is the newness of the situation: we have never before had a global pandemic in the age of social media. Much of the analysis is still to come.

You might be right, but I suspect not, for the very big and glaring reason that vaccine hesitancy is astoundingly high today. There are a number of reasons why this could be, and researchers will continue to argue about them for years to come. But to dismiss social media polarization as a negligible factor just because it hasn't been quantified yet seems presumptuous to me. I'll concede I may be blowing it out of proportion, but it is one huge difference between this and previous pandemics, and I find it hard to believe it's not a significant factor.


----------



## ian

Luftmensch said:


> For sure. It is not a logical impossibility. N is most definitely >= 1.
> 
> 
> 
> I understand the similarities you are using to draw this argument. I think both sides do an awfully good job at baiting and yelling at the other... Both sides are certainly equally culpable of creating tribal conditions. Beyond that equivalence, I would still say it is an imbalanced argument.
> 
> Epidemiologists and mathematicians don't include tribalism as a factor in modelling the pandemic. It may appear as a footnote... but the fact that it doesn't appear as an explanatory variable should tell you something. At _best_ it is of second-order importance - and I am sure even that is a big stretch.
> 
> Don't get me wrong. Again, everybody should try take the high road. But one group _directly_ impacts public health through their actions. The other group _may_ have an impact on the way a small group of people _think_. These are two very different propositions.
> 
> I guess it is also worth pointing out we are far better at self radicalising than being influenced by others. True; tribalism likely makes everybody more stubborn. I would agree with that.... but I find it difficult to believe there is a significant population of people who have been polarised into one camp or another through bad faith arguments from the 'opposition'. Where these people exist, I suspect the main cause for choosing a 'side' is really due to underlying, pre-existing personal biases and cultural context. Put another way, given enough time, most people within this group were probably going to join their chosen 'side' anyway. Beyond this minority, most people indulge in their own bubbles.... I have no shame in saying that I do.





spaceconvoy said:


> I think you're wrong to assume that because scientists haven't measured something it's probably not an important factor. One of the blind spots in many areas of science is the tendency to study what is easily quantifiable, for purely practical reasons. Measuring political polarization is far more difficult than measuring mask usage, not to mention beyond of the training of most epidemiologists. This is compounded by the inaccessibility of this data - we know facebook has revoked access to other data for researchers who have been critical of them. Can we be sure that anyone is able to see the full picture?Another factor here is the newness of the situation: we have never before had a global pandemic in the age of social media. Much of the analysis is still to come.
> 
> You might be right, but I suspect not, for the very big and glaring reason that vaccine hesitancy is astoundingly high today. There are a number of reasons why this could be, and researchers will continue to argue about them for years to come. But to dismiss social media polarization as a negligible factor just because it hasn't been quantified yet seems presumptuous to me. I'll concede I may be blowing it out of proportion, but it is one huge difference between this and previous pandemics, and I find it hard to believe it's not a significant factor.



Gotta say, I think @spaceconvoy is right here. Almost noone is innately vaccine hesitant or pro vaccine. They are hesitant because of a media machine that spreads bad information, and because trust in other media has been eroded. (Again, compare covid vaccine hesitancy to hesitancy with other vaccines, which exists, but is more fringe.) And these things are directly related to the partisan divide, at least in the US. But partisan divide also seem like a factor that’s on a different level from what mathematicians and epidemiologists might usually study (idk tho). This seems like asking “if gravity is so important, why don’t race car drivers have to learn Newtonian mechanics?”


----------



## MarcelNL

if anything I cannot imagine that the partisan divide has a lot to do with it, we see the same divide in many countries just not as markedly different as in a.o. the US. That divide in itself is probably food for thought for the next 2-3 years to come, and a couple of PhD thesis. I have a hunch that social media utilization is a factor somehow affecting what information folks see, would be interested to see a study where factors of influence are investigated.


----------



## ian

MarcelNL said:


> if anything I cannot imagine that the partisan divide has a lot to do with it, we see the same divide in many countries just not as markedly different as in a.o. the US. That divide in itself is probably food for thought for the next 2-3 years to come, and a couple of PhD thesis. I have a hunch that social media utilization is a factor somehow affecting what information folks see, would be interested to see a study where factors of influence are investigated.



Yea, I imagine the divide is more of an effect than a cause. Maybe the root cause is people realizing that with social media and cable tv, they can make a lot of money by entrenching viewers/consumers in an us-vs-them rage cycle. This seems like it naturally leads to further polarization in politics. But then at some point it becomes hard to distinguish the effects of social media on vaccine hesitancy vs the effects of social media on polarization, which then together with social media affects hesitancy.


----------



## LostHighway

I regard social media (KKF aside) as, on balance, a pernicious evil and would not shed a tear if Facebook, Twitter, TikTok, etc. all disappeared tomorrow. While it may be that social media acts as an amplifier for fringe beliefs and/or allows their adherents to feel more empowered there is nothing particularly new about vaccine resistance or the broader category of fringe/extremist beliefs. Humans as a species are far more suggestible, subject to bias, and less rational than they like to believe. History is replete with examples of beliefs that now seem crazy or repugnant gaining significant followings long predating social media.

Not quite germane but here is a piece on online advertising that I found interesting.

Slightly more germane


----------



## tcmx3

Keith Sinclair said:


> Bro think you better read this book if you want to get point across.
> 
> View attachment 143871



? one of the worst books Ive ever read.

good for middle managers trying to learn how to talk the talk though.


----------



## MarcelNL

honestly, I would not even notice other than through my surroundings if FB TW TT IG and the likes disappeared overnight....


----------



## ian

LostHighway said:


> I regard social media (KKF aside) as, on balance, a pernicious evil and would not shed a tear if Facebook, Twitter, TikTok, etc. all disappeared tomorrow. While it may be that social media acts as an amplifier for fringe beliefs and/or allows their adherents to feel more empowered there is nothing particularly new about vaccine resistance or the broader category of fringe/extremist beliefs. Humans as a species are far more suggestible, subject to bias, and less rational than they like to believe. History is replete with examples of beliefs that now seem crazy or repugnant gaining significant followings long predating social media.
> 
> Not quite germane but here is a piece on online advertising that I found interesting.
> 
> Slightly more germane



Yea, idk. The current period seems really different to any other period in my life, but I haven't been alive that long, and I'm not a great student of history, so what do I know.


----------



## LostHighway

ian said:


> Yea, idk. The current period seems really different to any other period in my life, but I haven't been alive that long, and I'm not a great student of history, so what do I know.



I'm old plus I enjoy reading history. The current times feel really dark to me, I think the early-to-mid '70s would be closest analogue in my lifetime in terms of feel despite no pandemic and somewhat different grievances. The country was extremely divided, it is important to note that Nixon's favorable polling did not start to dip below the unfavorable until mid-1973 and even during the last six months of his presidency he was still polling at about 25% favorable. The Vietnam war was the biggest wedge issue but far from the only one. Racial tension was high (the Republican Party was all in on the "Southern Strategy") with several major urban riots, there was a recession, concern about the environment (Cuyahoga River fire was in 1969) was high,...
If you want to go back further the US we can talk about the nineteen teens and twenties. There were major political divisions during the period of the Spanish flu.


----------



## ian

LostHighway said:


> I'm old plus I enjoy reading history. The current times feel really dark to me, I think the early-to-mid '70s would be closest analogue in my lifetime in terms of feel despite no pandemic and somewhat different grievances. The country was extremely divided, it is important to note that Nixon's favorable polling did not start to dip below the unfavorable until mid-1973 and even during the last six months of his presidency he was still polling at about 25% favorable. The Vietnam war was the biggest wedge issue but far from the only one. Racial tension was high (the Republican Party was all in on the "Southern Strategy") with several major urban riots, there was a recession, concern about the environment (Cuyahoga River fire was in 1969) was high,...
> If you want to go back further the US we can talk about the nineteen teens and twenties. There were major political divisions during the period of the Spanish flu.



I gotta learn things from you more often.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

ian said:


> I gotta learn things from you more often.



Got a library card Ian go to history section.
I'm old going to library a lot. Sometimes walk couple miles out of valley to nearest one. Get exercise & books to read. 

My better half says watch too much TV anyway.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

LostHighway said:


> I regard social media (KKF aside) as, on balance, a pernicious evil and would not shed a tear if Facebook, Twitter, TikTok, etc. all disappeared tomorrow. While it may be that social media acts as an amplifier for fringe beliefs and/or allows their adherents to feel more empowered there is nothing particularly new about vaccine resistance or the broader category of fringe/extremist beliefs. Humans as a species are far more suggestible, subject to bias, and less rational than they like to believe. History is replete with examples of beliefs that now seem crazy or repugnant gaining significant followings long predating social media.
> 
> Not quite germane but here is a piece on online advertising that I found interesting.
> 
> Slightly more germane



Get good programs on PBS sometimes, about people out to make money off unsuspecting fools. They will say anything. 

Could but won't bother how in history & now 
people have been taken to destruction.

I've learned hard way ordered exercising smartly, only to be swamped with emails about everything else he was selling mostly pills.


----------



## MarcelNL

I hardly watch TV, can't stand the commercials, politics, the half informed nonsense, misinformation, product placement, plugging, scare mongery to keep folks glued to their TV and I simply lack the patience to watch long enough to find out if a programme fits in one of the categories I mentioned (probably more exist).

I listen to music for approx 5 hours a day, I'm currently listening to les graind airs du coloratura (in mono) by La Callas from the French national library who digitized a bunch of vinyl for easy acces...plops and clicks included for free, but what emotion, reach and power, sigh

Covid, what was that?


----------



## Michi

chefwp said:


> calfornia-anti-vax-mum-dies-of-covid


I absolutely approve of people who put their money where their mouth is and die with the consequences of their own actions…


----------



## Luftmensch

ian said:


> Gotta say, I think @spaceconvoy is right here. Almost noone is innately vaccine hesitant or pro vaccine. They are hesitant because of a media machine that spreads bad information, and because trust in other media has been eroded. (Again, compare covid vaccine hesitancy to hesitancy with other vaccines, which exists, but is more fringe.) And these things are directly related to the partisan divide, at least in the US. But partisan divide also seem like a factor that’s on a different level from what mathematicians and epidemiologists might usually study (idk tho). This seems like asking “if gravity is so important, why don’t race car drivers have to learn Newtonian mechanics?”



Dont get me wrong.

There are many reasons why social cohesion appears to be tearing apart. Social media is playing a real and significant role in that. It is the most powerful tool humanity has developed for allowing the general populace to communicate and share information. We set Frankenstein's monster on the loose by letting it be an unregulated space. Shame on us. As a result it is a hotbed for disinformation.

Like @LostHighway and @MarcelNL, my life would be no worse off if social media disappeared over night. I don't use them. I don't like them. I acknowledge they bring people joy at an individual level... but they appear to have done some real damage at a population level.


My argument a few posts above is much more narrow. The main point I was trying to communicate was this line:


Luftmensch said:


> I find it difficult to believe there is a significant population of people who have been polarised into one camp or another through bad faith arguments from the 'opposition'



Basically what I am trying to say is this: neutral people who turned anti-vaxxer because some pro-science evangelicals called anti-vaxxers doo-doo-heads is likely a tiny, tiny size of the population.

I touch on tribalism and stubbornness. What I find very, very concerning is the ability for social media to amplify personal biases. Social media prays on confirmation bias. We have a nasty addiction to seeking out information that confirms our world view. I think this is the main reason people 'choose a side.' They are seeking out information that already confirms their social/economic/political/religious context. This is likely reinforced by family and/or friends with similar views. It can be a slippery slope. I can easily imagine how fairly mild and flexible positions turn into extreme and rigid ideas. Self radicalisation, if you will. Surely that has got to rank amongst the top reasons why social media is dangerous. That and the way it flattens expertise. Social media seems to support the idea that a million 'Kevins from down the pub' somehow hold as much or more weight than an international expert at a top institution.


----------



## MarcelNL

One of the folks I'm working with has become an anti vaxxer, a former ICU nurse who at first was hesitant about getting vaccinated as she thought the risk of Covid was low for her (being a bit of a health freak). 
Over the past months she has been sharing some of the 'news' she has been following with me, most of it was the blatant nonsense saying that covid did not really exist and it was no bog deal. Every now and then I have been providing some international background illuminating scientific information and the actual situation.
Her plan until a few weeks ago was to get vaccinated if she had to, yet her position somehow recently changed into denying the vaccine. 

Last week she shared a video by some guy cobbling together some of the most crazy consipracy theories that are flying around....hold on, this is just te part I could reconstruct from the comments below the video as I had no appetite to watch that nonsense; 
the Pfizer vax contains graphene which is not disclosed as the composition of the vaccine is a secret, the graphene will be used for mind control using radio waves. The graphene came into the vaccine due to thebrother of the health minister of Australia who is in the graphene business...

Now she is possibly the most friendly person in the world as far as I'm aware, and totally reasonable and going out of her way to accomodate pretty much everyone.

I am baffled by this about face from someone who is a bit sceptical about the impact of Covid to someone who clearly believes that the aliens have landed and are taking over the world. The only potential explanation I can offer is the algorithms in social media exposing people to more of they seem to like and her own choices in media sources...


----------



## chefwp




----------



## chefwp

This article is a fascinating look into the future of the virus and what may come next. Hopefully it is not behind the Post's paywall... It is about the amazing vaccination rate that Portugal has obtained and the challenges that remain. Of course that amazing rate is only on people eligible, as like here in the US, young children are not yet able to get inoculated. 

a couple quotes that stood out:

in many African nations, vaccination rates remain in the single digits — potentially giving breathing room to rampant infections and new variants capable of evading vaccines and racing around the world.
Gouveia e Melo pointed at his screen.
“These countries will have their revenge on us,” he said.

On the road for the vaccinated, a sniper would kill one of every 500,000, Gouveia e Melo said. On the road for the unvaccinated, a sniper would kill one of every 500.
“So,” he said, “which road do you want?”

I especially agree with this: “You cannot win just by vaccinating everyone in your own country,” he said. “The war ends after we give shots to everyone in the world.”


----------



## Luftmensch

NSW had its 'freedom day' at the beginning of the week.
ACT had theirs at the end of the week.

This has to be said in the context of recognising that several other states _didnt_ have a lockdown in the first place!! Australia has been a bit of a patchwork. I doubt it is a case of tortoise and the hare... but after a pathetic, mishandled start to the vaccination rollout, we're slowly working off our shame. Given enough time, it's not inconceivable Australia could find itself in the top 10 vaccinated countries. Not bad for a middle-size population.

The recent stats are positive. The national average is 67% double-vaxxed. Single does is 84%. Not amazing numbers but the states are interesting indicators. NSW passed 80% double-vaxxed on the weekend. ACT is hot on its heels at 79%. When it comes to a single dose, ACT is pulling an impressive >95%. NSW has managed 92% so far. The other states will no doubt catch up. I rather suspect NSW received an unfair allocation of vaccines during the recent wave.

It will be interesting to follow the effects of the high vaccination rates in NSW and opening up of the economy. It is not a complete free-for-all. There are still capacity and space/density restrictions. There are still mask orders. It does look like the high vaccination rate has had an effect on transmission numbers. Anecdotally, at least in my local area, people are taking compliance seriously. I had two meals out this past week. Both restaurants checked our vaccination status (as they should). Both restaurants ensured we had checked in (as they should).


There has been a hilarious amount of COVID political chest beating recently (state and federal). Including heads rolling, musical chairs and bewildering messaging. Too much to summarise here... But it has been a pantomime.


----------



## Michi

I expect case numbers to rise sharply with the relaxed restrictions. But, hopefully, hospitalisations will remain manageable. The problem are the large numbers of still-not-vaccinated people. Once people move and mingle more freely, they'll be sitting ducks.

I've heard reports from a number of epidemiologists who fear that this might turn into a disease for children, seeing that no-one under the age of 12 can receive a vaccine yet. And, even over the age of 12, around 16% of the population has not had even a single dose of the vaccine. Meaning that there are over four million sitting ducks over the age of 12 right now. Plenty of targets for the virus…


----------



## Michi

BTW, I've heard that many epidemiologists predict that, eventually, every single person in Australia will get Covid. It's just a matter of when.


----------



## LostHighway

It sounds like vaccine approval for ages 5 to 11 is only weeks away in the US.

I'm scheduled to go in for the booster on Wednesday along with this year's formulation of the flu vaccine. I'm cautiously optimistic as the Delta wave seems to be receding here but low vaccination rates coupled with on going data collection issues remain concerning. The most vaccinated US states (New England) are doing quite well but we still have states where only about 40% of the population is fully vaccinated. I am also concerned that politicians will prematurely relax masking and other precautionary steps. The lack of public health infrastructure and very low vaccination rates in poorer countries still have the potential to conjure up new mutations in the covid virus.

Edit: Polling on vaccine decisions in the USA


----------



## MarcelNL

Michi said:


> BTW, I've heard that many epidemiologists predict that, eventually, every single person in Australia will get Covid. It's just a matter of when.


that is pretty much my thought and what I hear reputable virologists say from the very start of this journey.

Autumn and or the Summer holiday season is making cases go up here, still the non vaccinated make up the majority of cases in ICU by FAR.


----------



## gregfisk

Here in the US, 91 to 99 percent “depending on the source” of people in the hospital with Covid are the unvaccinated. That makes it pretty clear, to me anyway that the number one goal for every country in the world should be to get people vaccinated. This may seem obvious but here in the states we have so much disinformation being pushed by certain media and Facebook that something has to be done. I have several friends who are either Drs., Nurses or Pharmacists and they are at the end of their ropes. They cannot continue down this road and hope to come out on the other side intact. This is all much too difficult for them after this much time in the trenches. And with the constant threats they’re getting from loved ones who hire lawyers because they won’t give the critically ill horse dewormer is beyond insane.


----------



## Barmoley

gregfisk said:


> Here in the US, 91 to 99 percent “depending on the source” of people in the hospital with Covid are the unvaccinated. That makes it pretty clear, to me anyway that the number one goal for every country in the world should be to get people vaccinated. This may seem obvious but here in the states we have so much disinformation being pushed by certain media and Facebook that something has to be done. I have several friends who are either Drs., Nurses or Pharmacists and they are at the end of their ropes. They cannot continue down this road and hope to come out on the other side intact. This is all much too difficult for them after this much time in the trenches. And with the constant threats they’re getting from loved ones who hire lawyers because they won’t give the critically ill horse dewormer is beyond insane.


Can we stop “horse dewormer” nonsense. Ivermectin is approved by FDA for human use. I am not suggesting it should be used to treat COVID, but calling it horse dewormer makes it very hard to take seriously anything else people spilling this nonsense say.


----------



## Michi

Barmoley said:


> Ivermectin is approved by FDA for human use.


Right.


> Ivermectin tablets are approved by the FDA to treat people with intestinal strongyloidiasis and onchocerciasis, two conditions caused by parasitic worms.











Why You Should Not Use Ivermectin to Treat or Prevent COVID-19


Using the Drug ivermectin to treat COVID-19 can be dangerous and even lethal. The FDA has not approved the drug for that purpose.




www.fda.gov


----------



## Barmoley

Michi said:


> Right.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Why You Should Not Use Ivermectin to Treat or Prevent COVID-19
> 
> 
> Using the Drug ivermectin to treat COVID-19 can be dangerous and even lethal. The FDA has not approved the drug for that purpose.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.fda.gov


Like I said not suggesting it should be taken for COVID. Doesn’t change the fact that it is a drug approved for human consumption and has been taken by millions or more people through out the world. Like most other drugs it can be dangerous when used inappropriately.


----------



## gregfisk

Here in the States there are Very few Drs., if any who will prescribe Ivermectin to people who are trying to use it for Covid. So, the people who are using it to treat Covid are buying horse dewormer. That is a fact.


----------



## MarcelNL

as with almost anything, the devil is in the detail and it's the dose that folks should be concerned about especially when buying veterinarian formulations of drugs .for off label use. Nobody knows how their individual case of Covid will turn out nor do they know the proper dose of Ivermectin for Covid so I'd strongly suggest that wait and see how Covid develops is safer approach (SHOULD there be any positive outcome of a future risk benefit asessment, which -as usual- will be also be dose dependent).


----------



## Barmoley

gregfisk said:


> Here in the States there are Very few Drs., if any who will prescribe Ivermectin to people who are trying to use it for Covid. So, the people who are using it to treat Covid are buying horse dewormer. That is a fact.



Doesn’t change the fact that calling it horse dewormer is misleading. The drug has been used for 40 years, scientists who discovered it received a Nobel prize. When used appropriately for its intended purpose and with a correct dosage it is safe and side effects are well understood. It’s like saying we should stop taking amoxicillin because it is fish antibiotic.


----------



## MarcelNL

Barmoley said:


> Doesn’t change the fact that calling it horse dewormer is misleading. The drug has been used for 40 years, scientists who discovered it received a Nobel prize. When used appropriately for its intended purpose and with a correct dosage it is safe and side effects are well understood. It’s like saying we should stop taking amoxicillin because it is fish antibiotic.


I beg to differ....it's not the same...the labeled use is quite different, it would be similar if Ivermectin would have been approved for Covid treatment, or any other antiviral effect...it is not..


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> I've heard reports from a number of epidemiologists who fear that this might turn into a disease for children, seeing that no-one under the age of 12 can receive a vaccine yet.



Yeah 

I also worry about indigenous and remote communities. @Nemo probably knows a thing or two about rural health networks. It would have been nice to take advantage of the increased vaccination rates in NSW and remain locked down just a wee bit longer to:

allow regional/rural NSW to get more vaccines out there
alleviate pressure on the health system even further before taking our foot off the breaks
I think the politicians and media have been using a broad-brush and are too keen assume the average is good enough. Sydney is not the same as Walgett by a long stretch...




Michi said:


> I've heard that many epidemiologists predict that, eventually, every single person in Australia will get Covid. It's just a matter of when.



In the long run I expect that will be the case. If there was ever a chance to eradicate the virus.... it was very near the beginning. I suppose its future is probably going to look something like seasonal flu??

I guess the goal for now is to vaccinate as many people as we can. Interestingly that will change the selection pressure placed on SARS-CoV-2. Delta seems geared towards maximum transmission. A large population of vaccinated people will provide resistance to that. I guess that new selection pressure will favour mutations that are better adapted to withstanding an immune response. Again... maybe like seasonal flu, we will need to update the vaccines every few years... I hope not!! It would be much better if the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 diminished and it just became a minor background, inconvenience.





LostHighway said:


> Edit: Polling on vaccine decisions in the USA



Yowzer... hard not to interpret those results through a political lens


----------



## Midsummer

Luftmensch said:


> Again... maybe like seasonal flu, we will need to update the vaccines every few years... I hope not!!



This is what I see as inevitable. You are, of course, welcome to your own opinions.


----------



## ian

I think @Barmoley is just saying that “horse dewormer” is needlessly inflammatory, which is probably true. Maybe we can just agree to say “a drug to treat parasitic infections” or something? It indicates just as well the inapplicability of the drug to covid, and isn’t as inflammatory or misleading. Horse dewormer seems to suggest it hasn’t even been declared safe for humans under any circumstances.


----------



## tcmx3

I have a bit of a difficult time with the fact that the conversation so often steers back to protecting the feelings of people who are 1. not helping and 2. by and large the least affected demographic rather than say doing something about this:


----------



## ian

Not employing hyperbolic or inflammatory language is going to help, if anything. Idk that anything said in the covid discussion thread is going to effect significant change elsewhere, but ridiculing people isn't helpful when you're trying to convince them of something. And with so much disinformation coming from those who are promoting things like Ivermectin, doesn't it seem like a good idea not to be misleading when you talk about it? Hard to take the high ground when you're not being completely straightforward and transparent, even if calling Ivermectin a horse dewormer isn't on the same scale of disinformation* as saying that it'll cure covid.



*Yes, literally it's true, but it's also misleading.


----------



## rocketman

Guys there are many, many medications which are used for "off the label" issues, and have been for years... Just because a med is a vet med now, does not mean that there might not be a human use for that same med... And vice versa.. Many human meds are used for vet. uses... Same applies to human meds, which are constantly being used for off the label uses effectively... The results is what counts, not the label... Unless it is tried, you do not know the result. Then a study.
The problem in the US is that unless the company making and selling the med is willing to spend another 100 million to do a study of the new use, there will not be a formal evaluation... No one is willing to do such a study on a med with the patent expired.


----------



## tcmx3

ian said:


> Not employing hyperbolic or inflammatory language is going to help, if anything. Idk that anything said in the covid discussion thread is going to effect significant change elsewhere, but ridiculing people isn't helpful when you're trying to convince them of something. And with so much disinformation coming from those who are promoting things like Ivermectin, doesn't it seem like a good idea not to be misleading when you talk about it? Hard to take the high ground when you're not being completely straightforward and transparent, even if calling Ivermectin a horse dewormer isn't on the same scale of disinformation as saying that it'll cure covid.



there are no marginal cases of _I think I'll go down to the feed supply store and buy some horse branded ivermectin paste_. I legitimately dont understand how so many folks are convinced that the primary thing driving this behavior is how the "other side" talks about it. 

again this conversation steers again and again towards making sure we're really nice to people who share facebook disinfo or who really dont want to get vaccinated for some reason instead of discussing why the tax credits have stopped.


----------



## ian

tcmx3 said:


> there are no marginal cases of _I think I'll go down to the feed supply store and buy some horse branded ivermectin paste_. I legitimately dont understand how so many folks are convinced that the primary thing driving this behavior is how the "other side" talks about it.



Of course it's not the primary thing, but that doesn't make it a bad idea to use precise language. The only reason I started piling on here is that Barmoley was getting all this flack for a perfectly reasonable comment that didn't need to dominate the thread. If you want to talk about tax credits, no one's stopping you from starting up a conversation.


----------



## LostHighway

Luftmensch said:


> Yowzer... hard not to interpret those results through a political lens



There is unquestionably a political component to who is or is not vaccinated in the US, but the correlation that I find more interesting is that poorer people, especially those without health insurance have low vaccination rates. Despite the fact that the vaccines are widely available without cost in the US I think some people don't trust "free" as a reflection of how health insurance works in the USA with a surprise bill often appearing months after the procedure. Poorer people are also more likely to face transportation or scheduling issues.

Looking at another data set wastewater tracking provides an interesting window into the number of active infections. Since not everyone with the virus gets tested and not all testing is aggregated into a central data set wastewater is, at least arguably, a more comprehensive indicator. We thank the Boston area KKF members (shoutout to @ian) for their contributions to this data. Massachusetts has one of the higher fully vaccinated rates (around 68%? - the Boston area may be higher) but the numbers are notably higher than the summer lulls of 2020 or 2021 although not near the height of the 12/20 - 2/21 rate.


----------



## ian

LostHighway said:


> Looking at another data set wastewater tracking provides an interesting window into the number of active infections. Since not everyone with the virus gets tested and not all testing is aggregated into a central data set wastewater is, at least arguably, a more comprehensive indicator. We thank the Boston area KKF members (shoutout to @ian) for their contributions to this data. Massachusetts has one of the higher fully vaccinated rates (around 68%? - the Boston area may be higher) but the numbers are notably higher than the summer lulls of 2020 or 2021 although not near the height of the 12/20 - 2/21 rate.



Wow, I had no idea they were doing that. Really cool.


----------



## MarcelNL

of course off label use is not seldom, but rarely there has been such widespread advocacy of it for really very unscientific reasons in an attempt to avoid a proper cure...


----------



## spaceconvoy

tcmx3 said:


> I legitimately dont understand how so many folks are convinced that the primary thing driving this behavior is how the "other side" talks about it.


Thank you for admitting your ignorance. Does anyone remember last year pre-election when vaccine hesitancy went up among Democrats? There was a fear that Trump was fast-tracking something potentially dangerous for political reasons. And then a year later these same people were calling for the FDA to ignore its protocol and fast-track full approval under Biden. My intent isn't to be overtly political beyond offering an counter-example for how _everyone_ changes their behavior based on what the 'other side' is saying.

We're suggesting that following the available scientific evidence will help achieve a better public health outcome, ie, engaging in less needlessly inflammatory rhetoric on a public forum will ever so slightly reduce vaccine resistance. But you see this as 'protecting their feelings.' I think that's an interesting tell, nearly an admission that your goal is primarily to hurt the feelings of your opponents despite the (admittedly marginal) cost to public health. So whose feelings is this really about?


----------



## ian

spaceconvoy said:


> Thank you for admitting your ignorance. Does anyone remember last year pre-election when vaccine hesitancy went up among Democrats? There was a fear that Trump was fast-tracking something potentially dangerous for political reasons. And then a year later these same people were calling for the FDA to ignore its protocol and fast-track full approval under Biden. My intent isn't to be overtly political beyond offering an counter-example for how _everyone_ changes their behavior based on what the 'other side' is saying.
> 
> We're suggesting that following the available scientific evidence will help achieve a better public health outcome, ie, engaging in less needlessly inflammatory rhetoric on a public forum will ever so slightly reduce vaccine resistance. But you see this as 'protecting their feelings.' I think that's an interesting tell, nearly an admission that your goal is primarily to hurt the feelings of your opponents despite the (admittedly marginal) cost to public health. So whose feelings is this really about?



Generally +1, although I think the example in the first paragraph has a few qualifications. E.g.

1) it's natural to be hesitant at first, and then to feel impatient about getting vaccines approved once the pandemic has been going on for ****ing ever,
2) in the intervening time there had been lots of scientists reassuring everyone that they were safe, and that the approvals were generally following regular protocol, and that the holdup was not so much about their safety or effectiveness,
3) one of those presidents has a habit of doing whatever it takes to inflate his bank account or election numbers, so it's more plausible (at least to me) that he'd try to push something through that was unsafe.

Anyway, how bout those tax credits?


----------



## gregfisk

Anyone who changes their stance depending on what the other side says isn’t a very deep thinker and probably isn’t able to make good decisions on there own. The reason the message was questioned at the beginning was because of the messenger, nothing more. I find it humorous that so much is being made of me pointing out the ignorance of people who are willing to eat a dewormer drug for a deadly virus that has a life saving vaccine available to them for free. Whether ivermectin is approved for human consumption is irrelevant since it’s certainly not approved for Covid. My point I was trying to make wasn’t that stupid people eat horse paste, it was that the smart people in the medical industry have had enough of these people and their Facebook medical degrees. I have friends who are tired and if we don’t continue to get people vaccinated at a very high rate something is going to break.


----------



## stringer

ian said:


> Wow, I had no idea they were doing that. Really cool.



Scoop it right out of the poop stream at Deer Island. One of my favorite places to go for a walk when I lived in Boston.


----------



## Barmoley

gregfisk said:


> Anyone who changes their stance depending on what the other side says isn’t a very deep thinker and probably isn’t able to make good decisions on there own. The reason the message was questioned at the beginning was because of the messenger, nothing more. I find it humorous that so much is being made of me pointing out the ignorance of people who are willing to eat a dewormer drug for a deadly virus that has a life saving vaccine available to them for free. Whether ivermectin is approved for human consumption is irrelevant since it’s certainly not approved for Covid. My point I was trying to make wasn’t that stupid people eat horse paste, it was that the smart people in the medical industry have had enough of these people and their Facebook medical degrees. I have friends who are tired and if we don’t continue to get people vaccinated at a very high rate something is going to break.


Your point is lost due to bad presentation and incorrect message. Your tired friends would not prescribe people horse paste, at least I hope they wouldn't. They would prescribe human approved medicine which is safe for human consumption when taken as prescribed. They should not prescribe it for covid since it hasn't been approved to treat covid. If you want to get people vaccinated, you need to know why they choose not to. Just assuming that they are dumb won't help you resolve the issue. I have many friends who are doctors and pharmacists who refuse to vaccinate, I disagree with them and don't understand their reasons, but I definitely don't think they are morons.


----------



## tcmx3

spaceconvoy said:


> Thank you for admitting your ignorance. Does anyone remember last year pre-election when vaccine hesitancy went up among Democrats? There was a fear that Trump was fast-tracking something potentially dangerous for political reasons. And then a year later these same people were calling for the FDA to ignore its protocol and fast-track full approval under Biden. My intent isn't to be overtly political beyond offering an counter-example for how _everyone_ changes their behavior based on what the 'other side' is saying.
> 
> We're suggesting that following the available scientific evidence will help achieve a better public health outcome, ie, engaging in less needlessly inflammatory rhetoric on a public forum will ever so slightly reduce vaccine resistance. But you see this as 'protecting their feelings.' I think that's an interesting tell, nearly an admission that your goal is primarily to hurt the feelings of your opponents despite the (admittedly marginal) cost to public health. So whose feelings is this really about?



provide some actual empirical evidence for your claim or get off that soap box.

frankly from your posts I straight up dont belive you're even capable of reading a scientific paper and understanding the statistics within. 

also love the internet psychologist game tell me more about myself Dr. Freud.


----------



## spaceconvoy

tcmx3 said:


> also love the internet psychologist game tell me more about myself Dr. Freud.


Since you asked... You tend to resort to ad hominem attacks when you've lost an argument. Case in point.


----------



## Nemo

Luftmensch said:


> I also worry about indigenous and remote communities. @Nemo probably knows a thing or two about rural health networks. It would have been nice to take advantage of the increased vaccination rates in NSW and remain locked down just a wee bit longer to:
> 
> allow regional/rural NSW to get more vaccines out there
> alleviate pressure on the health system even further before taking our foot off the breaks
> I think the politicians and media have been using a broad-brush and are too keen assume the average is good enough. Sydney is not the same as Walgett by a long stretch...
> 
> In the long run I expect that will be the case. If there was ever a chance to eradicate the virus.... it was very near the beginning. I suppose its future is probably going to look something like seasonal flu??
> 
> I guess the goal for now is to vaccinate as many people as we can. Interestingly that will change the selection pressure placed on SARS-CoV-2. Delta seems geared towards maximum transmission. A large population of vaccinated people will provide resistance to that. I guess that new selection pressure will favour mutations that are better adapted to withstanding an immune response. Again... maybe like seasonal flu, we will need to update the vaccines every few years... I hope not!! It would be much better if the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 diminished and it just became a minor background, inconvenience.



We were a fair bit behind Sydney here. You may remember the former premier "thanking" regional NSW for our patience while she took our vaccine allocation to Sydney. It would have been nice to have an extra couple of weeks at the other end to catch up from that. No dice.

We are in the beginning of a major outbreak started at a couple of local nightclubs. Multiple local schools are affected and this is necessitating isolation of hospital staff with kids at those schools. Elective surgery has been cancelled. I saw them loading covid hoods (devices which cocoon the bed in plastic and turn it into a mini negative pressure room) into ICU yesterday.

Fortunately, we have managed to catch up with 1st doses (95%) and are getting there with second doses (75%). I'm not sure if this vaccine rate is widespread throughout regional NSW (a lot of our vaccine supply comes from Vic).

I really worry about the indigenous communities. I have heard from multiple sources that there is a significant amount of vaccine hesitancy in many communities. Many people in those communities are very vulnerable. So much irreplaceable knowledge of country bound up in those very vulnerable elders.

The virus is here to stay. I guess that the evolutionary pressures in the unvaccinated (still a lot of the world) will remain for transmissiblility. In the vaccinated it will be both transmissibility and immunity evasion. Interestingly enough, SARS-COV-2 is already a pretty good immune evader. One of it's genes is an antagonist for interferon, one of the immune system's important messengers for defence against viruses. This may be one reason that it makes some people so sick. Another interesting fact is that Measles (significantly more transmissible than even delta) has not managed to mutate to avoid the immunity provided by vaccination. I have no idea whether this has any relevance for covid.


----------



## Nemo

@tcmx3 and @spaceconvoy, maybe cool it a little?

Don't wanna have to put my mod hat on.


----------



## Luftmensch

Can I say: horse carriage horse??

Or is that off label use for this thread?


----------



## M1k3

Luftmensch said:


> Can I say: horse carriage horse??
> 
> Or is that off label use for this thread?


Carriage Horse Carriage?


----------



## Luftmensch

M1k3 said:


> Carriage Horse Carriage?



Horse man horse?


----------



## M1k3

Luftmensch said:


> Horse man horse?
> 
> View attachment 147735


----------



## MarcelNL

at least it has rear wheel drive


----------



## Luftmensch

MarcelNL said:


> at least it has rear wheel drive



Exactly 1hp as well!


----------



## Luftmensch

Nemo said:


> We were a fair bit behind Sydney here. You may remember the former premier "thanking" regional NSW for our patience while she took our vaccine allocation to Sydney. It would have been nice to have an extra couple of weeks at the other end to catch up from that. No dice.





Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I knew you would have something interesting to say. Yeah... I am 100% with you. Good to hear vaccinations are catching up... but totally frustrating the political class is not being patient. The marginal cost of holding back for a few weeks is so low compared to the potential benefit.

Like I say... discussion about NSW... is really often a discussion around Sydney (to the detriment of the rest of NSW).




Nemo said:


> We are in the beginning of a major outbreak started at a couple of local nightclubs. Multiple local schools are affected and this is necessitating isolation of hospital staff with kids at those schools. Elective surgery has been cancelled. I saw them loading covid hoods (devices which cocoon the bed in plastic and turn it into a mini negative pressure room) into ICU yesterday.



Oh wow... I didnt know that. I hope it fizzles. It must be pretty stressful seeing the hospital prepare for the worst!





Nemo said:


> I really worry about the indigenous communities. I have heard from multiple sources that there is a significant amount of vaccine hesitancy in many communities. Many people in those communities are very vulnerable. So much irreplaceable knowledge of country bound up in those very vulnerable elders.



Yeah . Totally forgivable. 'The system' has been a failure for indigenous communities at its most benign. At its worst... weaponised and racist. I have a lot of empathy for hesitancy there. The government should be working triple time with community leaders to ensure access and coverage.





Nemo said:


> The virus is here to stay. I guess that the evolutionary pressures in the unvaccinated (still a lot of the world) will remain for transmissiblility. In the vaccinated it will be both transmissibility and immunity evasion. Interestingly enough, SARS-COV-2 is already a pretty good immune evader. One of it's genes is an antagonist for interferon, one of the immune system's important messengers for defence against viruses. This may be one reason that it makes some people so sick. Another intereng fact is that Measles (significantly more transmissible than even delta) has not managed to mutate to avoid the immunity provided by vaccination. I have no idea whether this has any relevance for covid.



You are likely to be more informed than me.

Delta was a smack in the face partially because SARS-COV-2 is so new. While Delta is more transmissible than other variants (and ultimately outcompeted them), it isnt fundamentally different - though, I dont mean to minimise its significance! The silver lining is that we have never been so fast at responding from an immunology perspective. With the help of vaccines we can acquire a pretty decent immune response even to Delta. Although SARS-COV-2 may continue to duck and weave (e.g. seasonal flu analogy)... its novelty is wearing off.

From that perspective, while not quite measles, my hunch is that the scope for SARS-COV-2 mutation is limited. A large change/event would likely require some antigenic shift. Again... probably through some zoonotic transmission originating from pigs or birds... but at that point we'd be talking about SARS-COV-*3*.

But hey... I am just a guy 

Interesting what you said about interferon!


----------



## gregfisk

So, he’s replaced a whip with a carrot. I like it! Now he needs to put another horse in front of him. Preferably one in heat. Talk about all wheel drive. 



M1k3 said:


> View attachment 147736


----------



## LostHighway

Is it HorseManHorse or is it

ManBearPig!


----------



## big_adventure

Barmoley said:


> Can we stop “horse dewormer” nonsense. Ivermectin is approved by FDA for human use. I am not suggesting it should be used to treat COVID, but calling it horse dewormer makes it very hard to take seriously anything else people spilling this nonsense say.



Nobody here is claiming that human dose Ivermectin being taken under prescription for an approved, recognized malady is a problem. Thing is, nobody is prescribing the human version to humans for COVID care. Thus, people are going to livestock feed stores to buy the no-scrip-required horse version and self-medicating on the stuff.

Therefore, calling it "horse dewormer" is ABSOLUTELY appropriate, since it's actually what idiots are taking, completely ineffectually against COVID and carrying a measurable risk to their health in the process.


----------



## ian

big_adventure said:


> Thus, people are going to livestock feed stores to buy the no-scrip-required horse version and self-medicating on the stuff.



Ah, well, I guess for those people that's a decent point. Seems like some people are actually getting prescriptions, though. 









Maryland US Rep. Andy Harris prescribes ivermectin to patient to treat COVID-19


A Republican congressman from Maryland who is also a licensed physician said he prescribed the controversial drug Ivermectin to patients for the treatment of the early stages of COVID-19.




www.foxnews.com










The Ledger







www.theledger.com


----------



## big_adventure

ian said:


> Ah, well, I guess for those people that's a decent point. Seems like some people are actually getting prescriptions, though.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Maryland US Rep. Andy Harris prescribes ivermectin to patient to treat COVID-19
> 
> 
> A Republican congressman from Maryland who is also a licensed physician said he prescribed the controversial drug Ivermectin to patients for the treatment of the early stages of COVID-19.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.foxnews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Ledger
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theledger.com



The issue there, of course, is that there are like 7 asshat doctors prescribing this stuff for a condition it does nothing for, and for which the manufacturer says straight out "do not prescribe it for this." That's already bad, but then there are the literally tens of thousands of people who are buying this stuff in horse format and self dosing. I stand by that calling it horse dewormer doesn't reduce the validity of the discussion at all. It got to the point that feed stores around the states are having to turn away customers for their own good.


----------



## MarcelNL

I'm not amazed by the existance of weirdo's in medicine, yet I DO really wonder what the addition of 'Republican' and 'congressman' has to do with the information someone is prescribing a drug for off label use other than that it is likely adding to polarization? 

Meanwhile, a variant of the delta variant seems to have appeared...10% more infectious than the delta variant.








Covid-19: New mutation of Delta variant under close watch in UK


Scientists are studying it to better understand how much of a threat it may pose.



www.bbc.com


----------



## Barmoley

big_adventure said:


> Nobody here is claiming that human dose Ivermectin being taken under prescription for an approved, recognized malady is a problem. Thing is, nobody is prescribing the human version to humans for COVID care. Thus, people are going to livestock feed stores to buy the no-scrip-required horse version and self-medicating on the stuff.
> 
> Therefore, calling it "horse dewormer" is ABSOLUTELY appropriate, since it's actually what idiots are taking, completely ineffectually against COVID and carrying a measurable risk to their health in the process.


On the contrary, my reply was specifically to the poster claiming that his friends in medical field are tired of prescribing "horse dewormer" to people. That they are overwhelmed by threats from their loved ones whom hire lawyers because these medical professionals are refusing to prescribe horse dewormer to them. So I'll repeat my suggestion. If you want people to take you seriously, stop repeating this nonsense. 

Ivermectin has a name and approved use in humans, calling it horse dewormer only serves to mislead and antagonize and I don't think we need any more of this crap in COVID discussions there is plenty already. You of course can call it whatever you want.


----------



## ian

MarcelNL said:


> I'm not amazed by the existance of weirdo's in medicine, yet I DO really wonder what the addition of 'Republican' and 'congressman' has to do with the information someone is prescribing a drug for off label use other than that it is likely adding to polarization?



You accusing Fox News of liberal bias? 

But yea, polarization is part of their business model.


----------



## ian

big_adventure said:


> The issue there, of course, is that there are like 7 asshat doctors prescribing this stuff for a condition it does nothing for, and for which the manufacturer says straight out "do not prescribe it for this." That's already bad, but then there are the literally tens of thousands of people who are buying this stuff in horse format and self dosing. I stand by that calling it horse dewormer doesn't reduce the validity of the discussion at all. It got to the point that feed stores around the states are having to turn away customers for their own good.



Where's this data coming from, btw? I was trying to figure out how many people are getting prescriptions vs getting the veterinary version, and found stuff like this, where there are like 88,000 prescriptions per week vs 3,600/week prepandemic. Those 7 doctors must be getting hand cramps! Guess there are a fair number of people trying to get the veterinary version, too, but I don't think we can say that the amount of people using the human version is insignificant.









Demand Surges for Deworming Drug for Covid, Despite Scant Evidence It Works


Prescriptions for ivermectin have jumped to more than 88,000 per week, some pharmacists are reporting shortages and people are overdosing on forms of the drug meant for horses.




www.nytimes.com


----------



## gregfisk

Barmoley said:


> On the contrary, my reply was specifically to the poster claiming that his friends in medical field are tired of prescribing "horse dewormer" to people. That they are overwhelmed by threats from their loved ones whom hire lawyers because these medical professionals are refusing to prescribe horse dewormer to them. So I'll repeat my suggestion. If you want people to take you seriously, stop repeating this nonsense.
> 
> Ivermectin has a name and approved use in humans, calling it horse dewormer only serves to mislead and antagonize and I don't think we need any more of this crap in COVID discussions there is plenty already. You of course can call it whatever you want.



I suggest you read what I wrote again. I said no such thing.


----------



## Barmoley

gregfisk said:


> I suggest you read what I wrote again. I said no such thing.





gregfisk said:


> Here in the US, 91 to 99 percent “depending on the source” of people in the hospital with Covid are the unvaccinated. That makes it pretty clear, to me anyway that the number one goal for every country in the world should be to get people vaccinated. This may seem obvious but here in the states we have so much disinformation being pushed by certain media and Facebook that something has to be done. I have several friends who are either Drs., Nurses or Pharmacists and they are at the end of their ropes. They cannot continue down this road and hope to come out on the other side intact. This is all much too difficult for them after this much time in the trenches. And with the constant threats they’re getting from loved ones who hire lawyers because they won’t give the critically ill horse dewormer is beyond insane.


----------



## Luftmensch

This is becoming absurd. Do we really want to die on the hills of style rather than substance?



Barmoley said:


> Can we stop “horse dewormer” nonsense. Ivermectin is approved by FDA for human use. I am not suggesting it should be used to treat COVID



If we all agree Ivermectin is an approved human antiparasitic that should not be used to treat COVID... then surely if you removed the word 'horse' you agree with 100% of @gregfisk's original post?



gregfisk said:


> Here in the US, 91 to 99 percent “depending on the source” of people in the hospital with Covid are the unvaccinated. That makes it pretty clear, to me anyway that the number one goal for every country in the world should be to get people vaccinated. This may seem obvious but here in the states we have so much disinformation being pushed by certain media and Facebook that something has to be done. I have several friends who are either Drs., Nurses or Pharmacists and they are at the end of their ropes. They cannot continue down this road and hope to come out on the other side intact. This is all much too difficult for them after this much time in the trenches. And with the constant threats they’re getting from loved ones who hire lawyers because they won’t give the critically ill *horse* dewormer is beyond insane.



Is that 0.65789% 'style' really worth aggressively disengaging over?



Barmoley said:


> makes it very hard to take seriously anything else people spilling this nonsense say





Barmoley said:


> Your point is lost due to bad presentation and incorrect message.



That is not particularly adult. You could neutrally state your objections once and try to seek common ground... which... on face value looks something like 99.34% of what @gregfisk originally said.


Here is my common ground. I 100% agree Ivermectin is approved for human use. I 100% agree there is currently no evidence that supports it being an effective COVID treatment. In the purest sense, I 100% agree, calling Ivermectin a 'horse dewormer' is unproductive. In practice, I only _largely_ agree that has to have a material impact on the conversation.

Back to substance...

How do you feel about medical professionals being pressured by the public to prescribe a human approved drug. A drug for which there is currently no evidence of efficacy for the intended prescription request? And this being done in an environment where the medical system has been under strain for almost two years?



I was chomping at the bit to get involved... despite pulling in the reins, I clearly fell off my high horse...


----------



## WildBoar

it is not unheard of for medical professionals to prescribe drugs of dubious benefit. Drug manufacturers send models to Doctors office to sweet talk them into prescribing many meds. I would not say the medical professions are pressured into doing it, but they can receive financial rewards. So not a stretch some might allow public pressure to convince them to write a prescription or two. They gotta get paid, amIright?

I am not condemning doctors, but there is no doubt prescriptions are frequently written that will have very little benefit for the patient.

(speaking from the US, it's possible in some parts of the world doctors will only prescribe medicines they 100% know will be helpful/ beneficial for their patients. it's possible a place like this may exist somewhere on Earth)


----------



## spaceconvoy

I see this as a very practical issue in the context of "How can we shorten the pandemic?" In order of impact:
1. Get vaccinated
2. Encourage others to get vaccinated
3. Avoid risky behavior and continue to wear masks indoors
4. Encourage others to avoid risky behavior and continue to wear masks indoors

After we've taken care of the things under our own control, how can we best accomplish the second goal? In order of most-productive to least-productive:
1. Use effective methods of persuasion
2. If you're not an effective communicator, you can remain silent
3. Use counter-productive methods of persuasion, such as calling the vaccine-hesitant "idiots" and implying they're animals.

Let's be honest about why people engage in the third solution and for whose sake. If insulting people makes you feel better, just own up to it instead of pretending you're saving the world.


----------



## icanhaschzbrgr

spaceconvoy said:


> 3. Use counter-productive methods of persuasion, such as calling the vaccine-hesitant "idiots" and implying they're animals.
> 
> Let's be honest about why people engage in the third solution and for whose sake. If insulting people makes you feel better, just own up to it instead of pretending you're saving the world.


If I'm calling antivaxers idiots it's not because they make it harder for me to save the world. It's because they make it hard for me to save my family. 

With crowds of unvaccinated people around it's only a question of time when you'll get covid. No matter have many doses of vaccines you already have. Covid quickly mutates when given "food" of unvaccinated crowds.

Here in Russia we had an effective vaccine available to public starting last February or March. Yet the majority of people are still unvaccinated. And I can't distance from all of them. I have to deal with them on a daily basis. And it makes me really angry and agressive towards them. I can't stand when my family is in risk because of those who are too lazy or ignorant to take a shot.


----------



## Barmoley

Luftmensch said:


> This is becoming absurd. Do we really want to die on the hills of style rather than substance?
> 
> 
> 
> If we all agree Ivermectin is an approved human antiparasitic that should not be used to treat COVID... then surely if you removed the word 'horse' you agree with 100% of @gregfisk's original post?
> 
> 
> 
> Is that 0.65789% 'style' really worth aggressively disengaging over?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That is not particularly adult. You could neutrally state your objections once and try to seek common ground... which... on face value looks something like 99.34% of what @gregfisk originally said.
> 
> 
> Here is my common ground. I 100% agree Ivermectin is approved for human use. I 100% agree there is currently no evidence that supports it being an effective COVID treatment. In the purest sense, I 100% agree, calling Ivermectin a 'horse dewormer' is unproductive. In practice, I only _largely_ agree that has to have a material impact on the conversation.
> 
> Back to substance...
> 
> How do you feel about medical professionals being pressured by the public to prescribe a human approved drug. A drug for which there is currently no evidence of efficacy for the intended prescription request? And this being done in an environment where the medical system has been under strain for almost two years?
> 
> 
> 
> I was chomping at the bit to get involved... despite pulling in the reins, I clearly fell off my high horse...


I’m not sure why being adult is defined by you as being neutral and not pointing out nonsense and bad arguments. This not withstanding, I’ll try to explain what I already wrote in my original comment.

It is nonsense to say that medical professionals are tired from being pressured to prescribe horse dewormer. It is factually not true, since they obviously can’t. The only purpose for this is to insult and antagonize people that don’t believe what the person saying this believes. As such the rest of the argument is lost because it is clear that the person saying this has an agenda and does not respect people with opposite opinions.

Now, you keep on saying that it is function vs style but it really isn’t. If your goal is to convince people with opposite views then insulting them is the least effective method of doing so. On the other hand if your goal is to feel superior then sure continue in the same manner, but you won’t reach your stated goals.

Medical professionals shouldn’t prescribe Ivermectin for COVID since it hasn‘t been approved for COVID. I am only talking about the US, since it is available over the counter in some other countries. Ivermectin is very well known and understood and it is harmless to most people in correct dosages, so even if some doctors prescribe it for COVID they are not really hurting anyone. Regardless, as I stated originally I don’t think they should. I have a hard time believing that the pressure is overwhelming since they basically have all the power they can just say no. OP said they are being sued over it, and maybe it is true, but I have a hard time believing it since there is no way any lawyer would take this case since clearly they are not breaking any rules.


----------



## icanhaschzbrgr

Barmoley said:


> It is nonsense to say that medical professionals are tired from being pressured to prescribe horse dewormer. It is factually not true, since they obviously can’t.


You insist on things original author hasn't said. Actually author told you that you misunderstood his point. Yet you insist on things that you read somewhere between the lines and come up with your own explanation. So who's factually wrong here?


----------



## Luftmensch

Look... going in circles is going to lead to moderation. 

I dont have much more to contribute. For now, the last I will say is: finding common ground is a useful strategy for generating productive conversation. Sometime that means giving others the benefit of the doubt. Sometimes that means letting go of a little bit of ground go. Nobody is obliged to change their mind if they don't find the discussion convincing.


----------



## spaceconvoy

icanhaschzbrgr said:


> If I'm calling antivaxers idiots it's not because they make it harder for me to save the world. It's because they make it hard for me to save my family.
> 
> With crowds of unvaccinated people around it's only a question of time when you'll get covid. No matter have many doses of vaccines you already have. Covid quickly mutates when given "food" of unvaccinated crowds.
> 
> Here in Russia we had an effective vaccine available to public starting last February or March. Yet the majority of people are still unvaccinated. And I can't distance from all of them. I have to deal with them on a daily basis. And it makes me really angry and agressive towards them. I can't stand when my family is in risk because of those who are too lazy or ignorant to take a shot.


I feel the same way, angry to be surrounded by so many people who put me in danger. I feel similarly whenever I drive on the highway, but most people have become desensitized to that form of collective risk. The question is what behavior should I respond with?

My mother-in-law is also Russian and lives in Moscow. She is educated, very liberal, and politically conscious. She has a somewhat high-profile job in the media, and is neither stupid nor crazy. But she's unvaccinated.

She's hoping to travel to Europe soon to get a Western vaccine, but she absolutely refuses to take Sputnik. It's _because_ of how well informed she is, her understanding of how deeply the state controls the media, and her long memory of government incompetence, that she distrusts the Russian vaccine.

The more people who tell her to get the vaccine, the less she's convinced. It just reinforces her view that the propaganda machine is working in overdrive. Why should she think otherwise? These people are friends and acquaintances parroting messages in a highly controlled media environment, not vaccine researchers.

Even if she could talk to a scientist with direct involvement in the vaccine development, how could she ever truly trust them, given the omnipresent threat of 'falling' out of a fifth floor window if they say anything out of line. There is a very deep paranoia held by many highly intelligent people who grew up in the Soviet Union, and it's not without reason.

All that is to say, not all vaccine-hesitant people are idiots. Of course that's easier to illustrate when talking about the specifically Sputnik-hesitant, but I try to imagine how her experience could mirror others who have been lied to and mistreated by our own medical system.


----------



## Luftmensch

spaceconvoy said:


> I try to imagine how her experience could mirror others who have been lied to and mistreated by our own medical system



For sure! I feel the same way about our indigenous communities. They have been lied to (and much worse) many times by the government. On the American side of thing, I dont find it hard to imagine how a broken medical system would make poor people skeptical/anxious about incurring unforseen costs.


----------



## icanhaschzbrgr

spaceconvoy said:


> My mother-in-law is also Russian and lives in Moscow. She is educated, very liberal, and politically conscious. She has a somewhat high-profile job in the media, and is neither stupid nor crazy. But she's unvaccinated.



Too bad for her. Even more so if she's well educated and still can't filter information.

I have zero trust in our mass media. They have been lied so much that even if they speak crystal truth now, they have lost all the credibility.

Yet there are scientific publications in curated medical journals. Sure they aren't an easy read, but that's our best source of vaccine information. And Sputnik does works. And it works more or less as effective vaccines from China/US/India/Europe. 

But most ignorant people doesn't care to spend their time reading those articles. And if they do read they often manages to interpret results in the way that would prove their views.

BTW Sputnik is used in other countries as well and there's statistics about it's effectiveness. I can share links if anyone here cares.

On a personal thing 3 of my relatives are doctors. My mother, my uncle and his daughter. Only 2 of them are vaccinated. My uncle is quite antivaxer. I have no idea how that's possible. He has been working as a doctor for 30 years. How could he see all the deaths from Covid and still believe in antivaxers noncenxe. My mother can't understand him. Even his daughter can't understand his reasoning. Frustrating.


----------



## AT5760

Barmoley said:


> OP said they are being sued over it, and maybe it is true, but I have a hard time believing it since there is no way any lawyer would take this case since clearly they are not breaking any rules.



These lawsuits are occurring. Here's an article that sums up some of them: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ivermectin-lawsuits-covid-us-1.6214131

Few statements are ever outright wrong, but saying "there is no way any lawyer would take this case" is close. Not poking at you, just my chosen profession...


----------



## big_adventure

ian said:


> Where's this data coming from, btw? I was trying to figure out how many people are getting prescriptions vs getting the veterinary version, and found stuff like this, where there are like 88,000 prescriptions per week vs 3,600/week prepandemic. Those 7 doctors must be getting hand cramps! Guess there are a fair number of people trying to get the veterinary version, too, but I don't think we can say that the amount of people using the human version is insignificant.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Demand Surges for Deworming Drug for Covid, Despite Scant Evidence It Works
> 
> 
> Prescriptions for ivermectin have jumped to more than 88,000 per week, some pharmacists are reporting shortages and people are overdosing on forms of the drug meant for horses.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com



Yeah, my "7" was an exaggeration. Doctors aren't gods, they aren't omniscient, and they can fold under pressure like most people. There are doctors, we've seen speaking on television, who recommended hydrochloroquine. Same for this. And if the patient comes in and demands the stuff, well, given that it doesn't do any harm to humans in normal doses, some of them are likely to give them rather then get into a fight or risk losing a patient.

Before California made it straight up legal, certain doctors would write you a scrip for weed if you stubbed your toe, or felt a little stressed in the afternoon, or misplaced a new John Grisham novel while on vacation. Doctors write stupid scrips when there isn't a downside.

Buuuuuuuut... many wouldn't. And then you had idiots writing their own scrips effectively, only using the equine version available in feed stores.


----------



## LostHighway

Since KKF often tilts toward the scatalogical, the view from Connecticut wastewater treatment.


----------



## Barmoley

AT5760 said:


> These lawsuits are occurring. Here's an article that sums up some of them: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ivermectin-lawsuits-covid-us-1.6214131
> 
> Few statements are ever outright wrong, but saying "there is no way any lawyer would take this case" is close. Not poking at you, just my chosen profession...


Don't seem to be exactly the same cases as discussed, since it is not the case of someone being ordered to write a prescription, but you are of course correct that absolutes should not be used. In the US finding a lawyer to sue for almost anything is often possible. Good to hear that both women for which giving the drug was court ordered recovered even though one was 80 and on ventilator. At least in these cases it seems that no harm was done. Also good to hear that, at least as far as the article discusses, the lawsuits were to allow the patients to be able to take the drug and not against specific doctors whom refused to write prescriptions.

I am wondering what will happen soon in the US once Pfizer vaccine is approved for 5-11 year old kids. It is anecdotal, but I know many people with younger kids whom are pro vaccine for adults, but against it for younger kids. I think we'll see even more lawsuits of all kinds. We have friends that run athletics for kids and parents on both sides have been a nightmare. Some want everyone to be vaccinated and take their kids out of the program even though kids are not yet eligible, others quit the program because they feel they are being forced to vaccinate. An extremely tough to navigate environment.


----------



## MarcelNL

let's leave the Ivermectin weirdness (my opinion, everyone is entitled to theirs) aside, the issue is IMO larger than what happens on its fringes. The situation in the US with two camps and low vacination rates is not unique, although the polarization appears to be far more political (and politicized) in origin than anywhere else I know of. 

Vaccination rates are still too low in many countries while COVID is out and about and not going anywhere anytime soon (my prediction, do not take it to the bank). I'm not sure what the ICU situation in other countries is but over here the -long pending IMO- discussion about prioritization is starting. ICU/nursing staff have not been recognized/rewarded in a meaningful way (a round of applause and a meagre -one off- bonus) after the initial Covid triathlon (I'm guessing they have not yet been able to compensate overtime with time off). They are now being asked to run another marathon as ICU bed capacity needs to be increased to a level far beyond normal capacity again. As plenty ICU staff have left max ICU capacity is likely lower than ever before and there are plenty of folks waiting for long postponed and now seriously backlogged surgical procedures requiring ICU beds postop.

Does a society care/dare to prioritize one patient over the other? The mere hint of discussing the possibility to prioritize others over non vaxxers has kicked off a shitstream of huffing and puffing non vaxxers, while reality shows that the vast majority of hospitalized Covid patients are not vaccinated.

Personally I'd be in favor of a solution prioritizing ICU beds based on medical history, expected outcome and capacity...pretty much what we did anyway as ICU capacity has always been limiting surgical capacity(to the point where cases are often cancelled on the day of surgery). So in clear language, someones CABG surgery or someones 3rd hip replacement may need to wait longer than usual as (long term care) Covid cases once again flood the ICU...where do the non vaccinated fit in? Their numbers will easily flood what capacity there is beyond critical care, trauma and those together with the few vaccinated Covid cases are enough to make major elective surgery a thing from the past once more.


----------



## gregfisk

What I find interesting about this conversation is that some people here seem to believe that I’m trying to change people’s minds. I don’t care whether people go to the feed store and buy horse dewormer. And I don’t care if they talk their Dr. into prescribing it in its human form. Either way they’re not people I would want to hang out with and that’s being kind. My point is that these people are the same people who aren’t getting vaccinated, getting sick and plugging up our health system. And that is putting a lot of stress on people I care about and the medical industry in general. They’re also the same people who are spreading the virus and allowing it to mutate which is making this planet a lot more dangerous for the rest of us.


----------



## gregfisk

MarcelNL, I was writing when you posted this and I just want to say that I completely agree. Well said!


----------



## spaceconvoy

icanhaschzbrgr said:


> Too bad for her. Even more so if she's well educated and still can't filter information.
> 
> I have zero trust in our mass media....
> Yet there are scientific publications in curated medical journals.


If you're referring to the article in the Lancet authored by over a dozen Russian scientists, then you're missing the point. All of those authors live in Russia, are susceptible to Novichok, and allergic to falling out of high rises. In a quasi-totalitarian state ruled by a murderous cabal of oligarchs who will stop at nothing to retain power, it's not just your media that's suspect, but everyone under their thumb.

To be clear, I'm not endorsing this view, just trying to explain my mother-in-law's perspective from earlier in the summer when my wife was trying to convince her to get vaccinated. She may have changed her mind since scientists in other countries have started publishing their own results on Sputnik. I could ask, but that carries a high risk of launching my wife into an hour long complaint session that I'd rather not invite


----------



## MarcelNL

my faith in Russian science and scientist is in fact a bit higher, the fact we have no been keeping up with what they do does not mean they do not know what they are doing. I've worked with some Russian investigators in the past and must confess the level of knowledge of the folks in their study teams was impressive and (far) beyond what I usually come across.


----------



## spaceconvoy

MarcelNL said:


> my faith in Russian science and scientist is in fact a bit higher, the fact we have no been keeping up with what they do does not mean they do not know what they are doing. I've worked with some Russian investigators in the past and must confess the level of knowledge of the folks in their study teams was impressive and (far) beyond what I usually come across.


I agree with you, and that's been my experience as well. My former company acquired a Moscow-based startup that made us all feel inadequate. But a funny thing I've noticed over the years is the correlation between education and faith in Russian expertise that's inverted in Russians and Westerners. Here's a crude graph of my anecdotal findings (not peer-reviewed):


----------



## sansho

Barmoley said:


> Can we stop “horse dewormer” nonsense. Ivermectin is approved by FDA for human use. I am not suggesting it should be used to treat COVID, but calling it horse dewormer makes it very hard to take seriously anything else people spilling this nonsense say.



i pretty much agree.

i prefer "ivermectin" or perhaps "dewormer" if a subtle, possibly-perjorative spin is desired. "horse dewormer" is dumb.


----------



## WildBoar

My sister's mom and brother's are a few hours outside of Moscow. Her mom was vaccinated a while back (she's in her mid-70s). Her educated 40 year old brother and his environmental engineer wife did not trust Sputnik. They got Covid last month, and their 2 kids also got it. The sister-in-law was in the hospital for over a week, while the brother scrambled to take care of himself and the kids (something he never did before even when healthy). They got lucky it did not hit them worse, although if there is long-term damage to kids it may be years before the effects are fully known.

I read something interesting the other day that indicate Russia actually has more Covid-related deaths than the US, but they are only reporting 250,000 or so. But may medical people over there know the real numbers are much higher.


----------



## WildBoar

sansho said:


> i prefer "ivermectin" or perhaps "dewormer" if a subtle, possibly-perjorative spin is desired. "horse dewormer" is dumb.


How about 'Dean Wormer'? It adds some humor to the situation... What's the best outfit for getting vaccinated? Toga! Toga! Toga!


----------



## MarcelNL

reporting bias around Covid deaths is something I'd totally expect and accept in Russia....


----------



## daveb

They're certainly not alone...


----------



## ian

gregfisk said:


> What I find interesting about this conversation is that some people here seem to believe that I’m trying to change people’s minds. I don’t care whether people go to the feed store and buy horse dewormer. And I don’t care if they talk their Dr. into prescribing it in its human form. Either way they’re not people I would want to hang out with and that’s being kind. My point is that these people are the same people who aren’t getting vaccinated, getting sick and plugging up our health system. And that is putting a lot of stress on people I care about and the medical industry in general. They’re also the same people who are spreading the virus and allowing it to mutate which is making this planet a lot more dangerous for the rest of us.



Noone thinks you're trying to change minds. Barmoley was just suggesting a more accurate way to talk about it that's not needlessly inflammatory. But if your point is to make fun of people that are mucking everything up for the rest of us, then it's an apt phrase. Anyway, whatever, this discussion isn't really important enough to merit the amount of airtime it's gotten here, although I realize I'm complicit.

Did anyone else have to google Dean Wormer? Or was it just me? 

Speaking of which, was Animal House in black and white? I have a hard time telling all those old movies from the last century apart.


----------



## tcmx3

big_adventure said:


> Yeah, my "7" was an exaggeration. Doctors aren't gods, they aren't omniscient, and they can fold under pressure like most people. There are doctors, we've seen speaking on television, who recommended hydrochloroquine. Same for this. And if the patient comes in and demands the stuff, well, given that it doesn't do any harm to humans in normal doses, some of them are likely to give them rather then get into a fight or risk losing a patient.
> 
> Before California made it straight up legal, certain doctors would write you a scrip for weed if you stubbed your toe, or felt a little stressed in the afternoon, or misplaced a new John Grisham novel while on vacation. Doctors write stupid scrips when there isn't a downside.
> 
> Buuuuuuuut... many wouldn't. And then you had idiots writing their own scrips effectively, only using the equine version available in feed stores.



one of the doctors was from Ocala Florida. let me say as a person who visits Ocala once a year or so for family that the place has a LOT of rx opioid problems.

while most doctors are trying their best, there's always a few who will write as many scripts as they can find blank pieces of paper, and most of the harm comes from a pretty small number.


----------



## M1k3

ian said:


> Noone thinks you're trying to change minds. Barmoley was just suggesting a more accurate way to talk about it that's not needlessly inflammatory. But if your point is to make fun of people that are mucking everything up for the rest of us, then it's an apt phrase. Anyway, whatever, this discussion isn't really important enough to merit the amount of airtime it's gotten here, although I realize I'm complicit.
> 
> Did anyone else have to google Dean Wormer? Or was it just me?
> 
> Speaking of which, was Animal House in black and white? I have a hard time telling all those old movies from the last century apart.


----------



## ian

M1k3 said:


> View attachment 148164



Huh, I wonder if they colorized it after the fact.


----------



## tcmx3

ian said:


> Huh, I wonder if they colorized it after the fact.



damn that Ted Turner!


----------



## M1k3

ian said:


> Huh, I wonder if they colorized it after the fact.


----------



## Michi

ian said:


> Did anyone else have to google Dean Wormer? Or was it just me?


I had to Google it, too. Doesn’t sound like I missed much


----------



## gregfisk

ian said:


> Noone thinks you're trying to change minds. Barmoley was just suggesting a more accurate way to talk about it that's not needlessly inflammatory. But if your point is to make fun of people that are mucking everything up for the rest of us, then it's an apt phrase. Anyway, whatever, this discussion isn't really important enough to merit the amount of airtime it's gotten here, although I realize I'm complicit.
> 
> Did anyone else have to google Dean Wormer? Or was it just me?
> 
> Speaking of which, was Animal House in black and white? I have a hard time telling all those old movies from the last century apart.



Actually, it was brought up more than once that that’s what I was trying to do. And I was going about it wrong by calling out people for eating horse dewormer. I agree with you though. Way too much was made out of my comment. Especially since it had nothing to do with my point in the first place. It all seems a bit ridiculous to be honest but I do thank everyone who tried to help make my point. I would be happy if we all just moved along.

You must be young Ian. Animal House isn’t that old. Wizard of Oz was even in color, although I didn’t know that when I was a kid because we didn’t have a color TV.


----------



## ian

gregfisk said:


> Actually, it was brought up more than once that that’s what I was trying to do. And I was going about it wrong by calling out people for eating horse dewormer. I agree with you though. Way too much was made out of my comment. Especially since it had nothing to do with my point in the first place. It all seems a bit ridiculous to be honest but I do thank everyone who tried to help make my point. I would be happy if we all just moved along.
> 
> You must be young Ian. Animal House isn’t that old. Wizard of Oz was even in color, although I didn’t know that when I was a kid because we didn’t have a color TV.



Sorry about that, the Animal House thing was just a dumb joke. I’m not that young, unfortunately, although still (just barely) under 40. Feeling older every day, with every additional tendon injury.


----------



## BillHanna

ian said:


> although still (just barely) under 40.


Sweet summer child.


----------



## Nemo

M1k3 said:


> View attachment 148164


Yeah, I was pretty sure it was in colour.


----------



## EricEricEric

That’s the thing about closed mindedness though isn’t it? Give it time, it’s on everyone’s side

A lot of physicians are saving a lot of lives, and that’s the only thing that matters, not political talking points









sansho said:


> i pretty much agree.
> 
> i prefer "ivermectin" or perhaps "dewormer" if a subtle, possibly-perjorative spin is desired. "horse dewormer" is dumb.


----------



## juice

EricEricEric said:


> A lot of physicians are saving a lot of lives, *and that’s the only thing that matters, not political talking points*


What, like the stupid image you then went on to post? "4000 acute COVID-19 patients: 5 hospitalised" These people need to learn that when you lie, little lies are way more believable than idiotic ones like that.


----------



## Luftmensch

WildBoar said:


> 'Dean Wormer'?



 

Sign me up to the group that had to look him up. Continuing on the theme of: word, repeat, word...

My post right now.... has:








From the horse's mouth...


----------



## Pisau

> “Now is not the time you want to fall over or get injured, because the hospitals are full. Don’t get too excited about the horse winning the Melbourne Cup if you’re on the brink of having a cardiac issue. Because if you call an ambulance in coming weeks, you may have to wait. There’s no question the hospital will do what they can, but we’re not able to provide the standard of care that we once did because of all of the resource constraints.”



Victoria AMA says Covid-deniers and anti-vaxxers should opt out of public health system and ‘let nature run its course'

Helpful language? Yes of course. But whispering don't always work on a stubborn horse, stronger languages like the above are warranted. 

P.S: I live among dairy and cattle producers, our term for that particular medicine is 'cattle dewormer'

/back to lurking/


----------



## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> A lot of physicians are saving a lot of lives, and that’s the only thing that matters, not political talking points


This is a classic example of anecdotal evidence. There is nothing to show what would have happened to those 4000 people otherwise. There is nothing to show that the drug didn't do any harm (other than that none of them died). For all we know, some of those people might have had worse symptoms than they would have had without the drug.

I'm afraid that this is not how science works. Without proper double-blinded clinical trials, it is just that: anecdotal evidence. And the plural of "anecdote" is "anecdotes", _not_ "fact" or "truth".


----------



## Michi

Pisau said:


> Helpful language? Yes of course. But whispering don't always work on a stubborn horse, stronger languages like the above are warranted.


Yes. The same people who say that Covid is a hoax, or that vaccines don't work, or any number of other things won't hesitate to show up at a hospital when they are in trouble.

The news is full of stories of Covid patients who (some of them on their deathbed) implore people to get vaccinated. But, of course, what would they know? They've probably been bribed by the big Pharma industrial complex to go over to the Dark Side…


----------



## riba

A friend of a friend and her mum arranged a fake vaccination proof (Russia) and traveled around. Both are in the ICU as we speak. I think in retrospect they regret some of their actions.

Took a flight yesterday. Main purpose of masks seem to be to keep the chin warm


----------



## daveb

I didn't have to google the Dean.

"Did we quit when the German's bombed Pearl Harbor?" Best movie ever.

Thinking about it, the idea of double secret probation has some merit as well


----------



## Luftmensch

Pisau said:


> P.S: I live among dairy and cattle producers, our term for that particular medicine is 'cattle dewormer'



Yeah... but how much more awesome would it be to say... "she has heartworm the size of Phar Lap's"

... particularly since the Melbourne Cup is coming up


----------



## gregfisk

^^^^^ THIS ^^^^^


----------



## tcmx3

so probably not relevant to most folks but the FIDE Grand Swiss (chess tournament) is scheduled to be held in Latvia, which is going into full lockdown due to COVID situation, and within minutes FIDE announced "don't worry we're going to get an exemption so we can hold our event"  

didnt even stop to think if it was a good idea to still hold the tournament...


----------



## gregfisk

Michi said:


> This is a classic example of anecdotal evidence. There is nothing to show what would have happened to those 4000 people otherwise. There is nothing to show that the drug didn't do any harm (other than that none of them died). For all we know, some of those people might have had worse symptoms than they would have had without the drug.
> 
> I'm afraid that this is not how science works. Without proper double-blinded clinical trials, it is just that: anecdotal evidence. And the plural of "anecdote" is "anecdotes", _not_ "fact" or "truth".



Thank you Richi,

now I don’t have to write it.

unreal.


----------



## MarcelNL

here is a result of a meta analysis of clinical studies on Ivermectin by some folks I hold in high regard, and even more important; they're not US based and therefore more likely to be less biased....bottom line is the studies done so far mostly suck









Ivermectin for preventing and treating COVID-19 - PubMed


Based on the current very low- to low-certainty evidence, we are uncertain about the efficacy and safety of ivermectin used to treat or prevent COVID-19. The completed studies are small and few are considered high quality. Several studies are underway that may produce clearer answers in review...




pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov





can we now put the Ivermectin stuff to bed?


----------



## WildBoar

Michi said:


> I had to Google it, too. Doesn’t sound like I missed much


You missed a ton! It's a classic movie. Lots of good lines that were repeated for the next decade or so.


----------



## gregfisk

MarcelNL said:


> here is a result of a meta analysis of clinical studies on Ivermectin by some folks I hold in high regard, and even more important; they're not US based and therefore more likely to be less biased....bottom line is the studies done so far mostly suck
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ivermectin for preventing and treating COVID-19 - PubMed
> 
> 
> Based on the current very low- to low-certainty evidence, we are uncertain about the efficacy and safety of ivermectin used to treat or prevent COVID-19. The completed studies are small and few are considered high quality. Several studies are underway that may produce clearer answers in review...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> can we now put the Ivermectin stuff to bed?



hmm, sounds like it doesn’t work?


----------



## parbaked

WildBoar said:


> Lots of good lines that were repeated for the next decade or so.


“_Do you mind if we dance with your dates?”_


----------



## ian

Been ages since I saw it, but it brings up good memories.


----------



## EricEricEric

This seems to becoming more and more common. I had a friend that was admitted to my hospital, he’s a young chef, after his first vaccination with chest pain. His troponin levels were elevated after his first COVID immunization 

Looks like almost all of the Nordic countries are not allowing anyone under the age of 31 to receive the Moderna vaccination for this very reason.

Other countries are seeing the same side effects as well. I can’t help but feel we are going to see more and more information come out after the fact


----------



## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> I can’t help but feel we are going to see more and more information come out after the fact


Well done again, @EricEricEric, what a most beautiful specimen of cherry picking!

The table has 81 cells, and the 5770 figure refers to the one cell with the highest value (173.3). And that is for a highly-selective group, males aged 18-24 after dose 2 in Ontario.

For comparison, here is a presentation that discusses the topic in quite some detail. That presentation is from the CDC. The presentation is complete, instead of showing just a single data item that makes the poster's point.

I draw your attention to page 28, which contains a very similar table. That table's reporting rates are well below half of the Ontario sample. It would also be really good to take a look at page 30 _ff_, which presents risk comparisons of Covid and myocarditis. (Hint: the risk of serious complications or death from Covid is orders of magnitude larger.)

Finally, I would note that the overall death rate for Covid in the US is somewhere around 1.6%. That's a cool 16,000 _dead_ people per million reported infections. The death rate from myocarditis complications following an mRNA vaccine is below 20.

I can only assume that you think it is worthwhile to draw attention to 20 deaths per million from the vaccine, as opposed to 16000 deaths from Covid. My heart-felt thanks for your consideration!


----------



## spaceconvoy

And fluvoxamine still hasn't been advertised reported on by Fox News. I'm still a bit baffled why the anti-vaxers aren't interested in _the one_ drug that's shown measurable results in clinical trials. My only theories:

- Since it's an antidepressant they're afraid taking it once will 'kill your libido' (the headline of the top result for 'fluvoxamine' on foxnews dot com). The venn diagram of 'anti-vax' and 'anti-antidepressants' might be close to a circle.

- Financial interests aren't pushing it, which I realize sounds like a conspiracy theory, but can't be ruled out.

- But I think the most likely explanation is that since the measured results are somewhat weak (30% reduction in severe cases/hospitalizations) it's less appealing than the mythologized version of ivermectin that 'the medical industry doesn't want you to know about' or whatever, which they're able to imagine is 100% effective.


----------



## juice

spaceconvoy said:


> - Financial interests aren't pushing it, which I realize sounds like a conspiracy theory, but can't be ruled out.


Nobody has bought the stock, so no need to push it.

FOLLOW THE MONEY


----------



## big_adventure

gregfisk said:


> hmm, sounds like it doesn’t work?



When even the pharma company who makes the stuff says "do not prescribe this for COVID," you can be relatively sure that it doesn't work.


----------



## big_adventure

EricEricEric said:


> This seems to becoming more and more common. I had a friend that was admitted to my hospital, he’s a young chef, after his first vaccination with chest pain. His troponin levels were elevated after his first COVID immunization
> 
> Looks like almost all of the Nordic countries are not allowing anyone under the age of 31 to receive the Moderna vaccination for this very reason.
> 
> Other countries are seeing the same side effects as well. I can’t help but feel we are going to see more and more information come out after the fact
> 
> View attachment 148321



Michi already debunked the hell out of this, but I'll point two things:

1. The "Note:" disclaimer under the table. It says that this is anything reported, whether or not the reports actually meet the expected case definition.

and

2. Those rates are, based on previous reports I've read, roughly equal to the background rates of those conditions. The first report of this came out about the Astra vaccine IIRC, and it was pulled for a week or two. Thing is, the rate of the conditions that led to the pull was LESS THAN the background rate for the diseases. There were something like 7 cases out of the set of the reports, which was less than the expected 8 cases you'd have seen if you did nothing. Small sample size here applies, of course, but that's why the vaccine was put back into active service basically immediately. Precaution led to the pause, mathematics led to the unpause.


----------



## Barmoley

In other news Generic Anti-Depressant Drug May Reduce Covid Hospitalizations

So now there will be a run on this stuff. At least the people taking it will be less depressed even if it turns out it doesn't work for covid.


----------



## MarcelNL

I'd say that anyone who is a sceptic of pharma AND distrusts regulatory authorities at the same time ought to be forced to take anti depressants/anti psychotics; for one they for sure show signs of paranoia, are at risk of inflicting bodily harm to themselves and others, and the side effect of decreased libido serves a great cause


----------



## MarcelNL

More importantly; many countries are in the same predicament, dealing with high numbers of unvaccinated people flooding hospitals with Covid now getting to the breaking point again so measures need to be put in place....plenty reason for differentiating measures between vaccinated and non vaccinated, and I wonder what my Govt will do....I now that there are many places where a differentiation is put in place..


----------



## spaceconvoy

I've been talking about fluvoxamine for months now, and it was first identified as a potential covid treatment almost a year ago. If the antivaxers were going to latch on to this, they would have already. Like I've said before, the problems with it (in the eyes of antivaxers) are:
- It's an antidepressant
- The effects are too weak
- It's accepted by the medical industry
- Their media networks aren't promoting it

Antivaxers are nearly as suspicious of psychiatric medication as they are of vaccines. It doesn't prevent infections, and only mildly decreases the risk of hospitalization. Plus the medical industry supports it. Much better to have a mythical dark horse you can imagine has any effect you want and whose existence is being suppressed by powerful elites (ivermectin), than a mediocre known-quantity with institutional support.


----------



## MarcelNL

indeed, it's hardly a treatment, given the small effect it has...at best it's adjuvant therapy so why bother with this product of pharma if you can do better with a vaccine that also comes from the pipeline of pharma?


----------



## spaceconvoy

Well it's better than nothing in remote areas/developing countries without access to vaccines. Even vaccines that don't need refrigeration still require sterile needles and trained people to administer them.


----------



## MarcelNL

spaceconvoy said:


> Well it's better than nothing in remote areas/developing countries without access to vaccines. Even vaccines that don't need refrigeration still require sterile needles and trained people to administer them.


I take it you read the risk reduction is SMALL and the study too...?

_It was a* 5% decrease in absolute risk* and a 32% decrease in relative risk.

and 

It wasn't a perfect study, they noted. It was done in Brazil, and the patients had a higher rate of hospitalization than Covid-19 patients in other clinical trials. _


----------



## Jovidah

EricEricEric said:


> This seems to becoming more and more common. I had a friend that was admitted to my hospital, he’s a young chef, after his first vaccination with chest pain. His troponin levels were elevated after his first COVID immunization
> 
> Looks like almost all of the Nordic countries are not allowing anyone under the age of 31 to receive the Moderna vaccination for this very reason.
> 
> Other countries are seeing the same side effects as well. I can’t help but feel we are going to see more and more information come out after the fact
> 
> View attachment 148321



Big adventure already said most there is to say. Over here Moderna is mostly reserved for older people here, but I can't remember exactly if this was because it showed higher efficiency there or if it was because of a 'potential 0.001% chance at maybe something happening'. We're in the luxurious position where we can essentially be vaccinesnobs and stop using vaccines even if only because there's an _appearance_ of side-effects simply because we have other options. My take is that the government is playing it extra safe because the main concern here is that even just rumors have the potential to undermine willingness to vaccinate, especially when the majority of people have no clue how to read or interpret medical research and the statistics behind dthem.

I'm not sure what 'more information' you're expecting when these vaccines already went through trials with around 50k test subjects before they went into circulation, and currently already millions of doses in the wild.
The only thing we're really seeing is massively lower hospitalization and death rates among vaccinated populations. The only major negative we've found out is that the effects seems to wear off over time, hence all the buzz about booster shots.



big_adventure said:


> Michi already debunked the hell out of this, but I'll point two things:
> 
> 1. The "Note:" disclaimer under the table. It says that this is anything reported, whether or not the reports actually meet the expected case definition.
> 
> and
> 
> 2. Those rates are, based on previous reports I've read, roughly equal to the background rates of those conditions. The first report of this came out about the Astra vaccine IIRC, and it was pulled for a week or two. Thing is, the rate of the conditions that led to the pull was LESS THAN the background rate for the diseases. There were something like 7 cases out of the set of the reports, which was less than the expected 8 cases you'd have seen if you did nothing. Small sample size here applies, of course, but that's why the vaccine was put back into active service basically immediately. Precaution led to the pause, mathematics led to the unpause.


Exactly, point 2. The expected rate. I actually dug into this when it came to AstraZenica because there were some concerns about trombosis (when I was about to get my own shots). But when you actually looked into the numbers the incidence was actually lower than the expected rate among an average population. The problem is that this is a story that's hard to explain to the general population after the original story took root; essentially the reputation is 'tainted', even when this isn't necessarily justified. For this reason AstraZenica has mostly fallen out of use here, not because there's anything wrong with it, but because the main concern at this point is vaccine-acceptance; the side effects aren't the problem. But it's easier to simply switch to Pfizer to sidestep the issue.



spaceconvoy said:


> I've been talking about fluvoxamine for months now, and it was first identified as a potential covid treatment almost a year ago. If the antivaxers were going to latch on to this, they would have already. Like I've said before, the problems with it (in the eyes of antivaxers) are:
> - It's an antidepressant
> - The effects are too weak
> - It's accepted by the medical industry
> - Their media networks aren't promoting it
> 
> Antivaxers are nearly as suspicious of psychiatric medication as they are of vaccines. It doesn't prevent infections, and only mildly decreases the risk of hospitalization. Plus the medical industry supports it. Much better to have a mythical dark horse you can imagine has any effect you want and whose existence is being suppressed by powerful elites (ivermectin), than a mediocre known-quantity with institutional support.


While I don't know the specifics about this specific thing, I think it's sometimes forgotten that many different things have been tried, and are being used to improve treatment once a case gets bad enough to reach a hospital. There isn't anything wrong with that; and it's actually showing that quite some progress has been made here, since the ratio of hospitalized to ER / deaths has improved significantly since the start of the epidemic. Most of the stuff being done never got attention since this was never a particularly controversial issue (and probably too technical for most people not employed in the treatment side).

Where it becomes problematic is when these things are proposed as an alternative to vaccines. Any improvements in treatment are great and still worthwhile to investigate, it's just completely silly to use it as an argument against the vaccines. Just like it's silly to ignore them when we do have working vaccines. As long as it works it's worthwhile to pursue and apply, and this really shouldn't be controversial.
It's just silly when it becomes an antivax argument. That's like throwing away your smoke alarms and building a campfire in your living room just because you bought this awesome new fire extinguisher....


----------



## juice

Barmoley said:


> At least the people taking it will be less depressed even if it turns out it doesn't work for covid.


Unlikely, given most deliberately prescribed antidepressants do bugger all.



Jovidah said:


> The problem is that this is a story that's hard to explain to the general population after the original story took root; essentially the reputation is 'tainted', even when this isn't necessarily justified.


Yeah, we had the same kind of stupid reaction down here as well. (I've had both my AZ shots, three months apart, blah blah.)


----------



## MarcelNL

not so sure it was stupid to pause using AZ, if the side effect is severe enough you don't want to be overtaken by a flooding of cases because of indecisivenes...just keep in mind that a gazillion folks got the shots every week...I am glad it was not my call to make...


----------



## juice

MarcelNL said:


> not so sure it was stupid to pause using AZ, if the side effect is severe enough you don't want to be overtaken by a flooding of cases


But it wasn't, and never was going to be. They delivered the warning in a truly stupid fashion and caused all sorts of problems down here with people not getting injected as a result, putting us WAY behind schedule.


----------



## Jovidah

MarcelNL said:


> not so sure it was stupid to pause using AZ, if the side effect is severe enough you don't want to be overtaken by a flooding of cases because of indecisivenes...just keep in mind that a gazillion folks got the shots every week...I am glad it was not my call to make...


Yeah it's a difficult position to be in. You want to be prudent because even if the side-effects being brought up are minimal or even completely absent, it might severely undermine vaccine acceptance. And if there's even a hint of potential severe side-effects, better safe than sorry applies.
I'm not even sure how much it really delayed vaccinations here? I think at the time we already had a mix of other vaccines available, and I think we mostly just went full-Pfizer for certain age ranges. I think that may have swayed the decision; why take the risk on keeping a vaccine with a PR problem in rotation, when you have alternatives available.


----------



## MarcelNL

@juice Hindsight is always 20:20 
I think that betting on one horse caused more of a problem than this hiccup until the side effect was better understood, not sure if I got that right but the data seems to indicate all others than AZ came into play much later effectivley meaning the govt had painted itself in the corner of the room.
Trust in medicines is no different than elsewhere, it comes on foot and goes by horse.









Australia’s vaccine agreements


The Australian Government has invested over $8 billion in the national COVID-19 vaccine rollout. Learn more about our vaccine agreements.




www.health.gov.au


----------



## spaceconvoy

"Helminth [ie worm] infections are among the most common infectious diseases. Bradbury et al. highlight the possible negative interactions between helminth infection and COVID-19 severity in helminth-endemic regions and note that alterations in the gut microbiome associated with helminth infection appear to have systemic immunomodulatory effects. It has also been proposed that helminth co-infection may increase the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19, because the immune system cannot efficiently respond to the virus; in addition, *vaccines will be less effective for these patients, but treatment and prevention of helminth infections might reduce the negative effect of COVID-19.*"
Source:
The New Status of Parasitic Diseases in the COVID-19 Pandemic—Risk Factors or Protective Agents?

So it turns out that Ivermectin probably
does reduce the severity of coronavirus in people with underlying worm infections, estimated to be one half to a quarter of the population in developing countries. In the US, the NIH estimates 5.5 - 7 million people are infected with one of the five most common worms. In fact, the NIH recommends:

"Clinicians should consider STH [ie worm] infection in high-risk populations in decision-making for COVID-19-infected patients."
Source:
Soil-Transmitted Helminths in the USA: a Review of Five Common Parasites and Future Directions for Avenues of Enhanced Epidemiologic Inquiry

Trust the Science!


----------



## Jovidah

So basically.. a horse dewormer can have a beneficial effect if you actually have worms?


----------



## spaceconvoy

I think you mean "human dewormer" or you can just say "dewormer"


----------



## MarcelNL

Formulating a hypothesis is not science, it's where science STARTS, so let's wait a bit until there is science to prove this right or wrong...not science that Ivermectin helps treating worms, that bit has been proven or the stuff would not have been approved for that indication.


----------



## Noxion

gregfisk said:


> I don’t care whether people go to the feed store and buy horse dewormer. And I don’t care if they talk their Dr. into prescribing it in its human form.
> My point is that these people are the same people who aren’t getting vaccinated, getting sick and plugging up our health system. And that is putting a lot of stress on people I care about and the medical industry in general.
> They’re also the same people who are spreading the virus and allowing it to mutate which is making this planet a lot more dangerous for the rest of us.




Actually, there are drugs that function on the SARS-CoV-2; they’re a refinement of the known anti-viral drugs approach based on “spoiling” the process of viral multiplication inside a living organism by inserting homologues in the newly formed RNA viral strains. The problem is that these drugs are by their own nature teratogenic. In other words, the people screaming “vaccines are poison” are ready to take real poison once their own egoistic “need” mode switches on.


In certain EU states with low level of vaccination the epidemic exploded; there are no free intensive care beds in Slovenia any more and the whole medical system has collapsed. Even those scheduled for emergency cardio operations are being left at home. 

The second problem is the viral charge in the population; if it is very high the virus is going to mutate – adapt, so that it can re-infect those resistant (vaccinated or recovered). Therefore; the whole population must be made resistant in a short span of time (vaccinated) and the international travelling strictly controlled. 


Now; mandatory vaccination is not really necessary. The mRNA tech (BioNTech, Moderna) is very flexible and the product can be quickly adapted. Also, since it’s not a vaccine, from a tech point of view, it can be used to refresh or remind the immune system on a frequent basis. With a 4 month refresh cycle one can effectively protect himself and leave the anti-vax believers to the deliverance.
The only issue is that the anti-vax mob demands rights on other people’s expenses; to monopolise the hospital care once they need it, pushing others (even oncological patients) out, they demand to be treated for free and to get a paid sick leave and possible disability money from others. 
Therefore, the society will have to decide which force is minor; forced vaccination or leaving a large number of the anti-vax population to fend for itself. 
The answer is clear: forced vaccination will win for humanitarian reasons.


----------



## gregfisk

The take away here is pretty simple. These people are anti Virology, anti science, anti vaccines and anti hospital’s UNTIL they need help. Then it’s right back to (it’s all about me.) And still, many of them don’t respect the Dr’s, nurses and pharmacists who are trying to save their lives. I’m just going to leave it at that. This stuff really pisses me off.


----------



## daveb

Both sides claim to own the "Science". Neither side seems to.

In the real world my company has told us that Vax mandates will be enforced and Dec 5 is the magic date. In real terms it means I'll lose more than half my workforce in an environment that is already challenging.

Healthcare as we know it is about to go down the tubes - and nothing will be accomplished.


----------



## juice

daveb said:


> Healthcare as we know it is about to go down the tubes - and nothing will be accomplished.


That's pretty dire, given how buggered the healthcare system is in the US already...


----------



## WildBoar

daveb said:


> Both sides claim to own the "Science". Neither side seems to.
> 
> In the real world my company has told us that Vax mandates will be enforced and Dec 5 is the magic date. In real terms it means I'll lose more than half my workforce in an environment that is already challenging.
> 
> Healthcare as we know it is about to go down the tubes - and nothing will be accomplished.


It's supposed to be coming for a lot of federal government agencies, as well as the contractors that work with/ for them. But in typical fashion it's not yet fully defined.


----------



## MarcelNL

Germany's Covid cases hit record high with Merkel warning of 'dramatic' situation | CNN


Germany reported its highest single day surge of Covid-19 infections as Chancellor Angela Merkel said the "dramatic" situation was the result of the fourth wave "hitting our country with full force."




edition.cnn.com





Just see what impact a difference in vax rates has, Portugal and Spain were amongst the hardest hit in previous waves and have a very high vax rate as result...do we need more science than those statistics and the current infection rates to do the math predicting ICU/hospital utilization of COVID patients?

Despite what many seem to think the outlook did not change and it will not, it's not a matter if you get it, but when.
The best thing one can do is to do is to prepare yourself by ; either total self isolation (whether imposed by Govt or self imposed), or get vaccinated and stay 'boostered up' as we learn more.


----------



## Luftmensch

Noxion said:


> Therefore, the society will have to decide which force is minor; forced vaccination or leaving a large number of the anti-vax population to fend for itself.
> The answer is clear: *forced vaccination *will win for humanitarian reasons.



Depends what you mean. Truly forced vaccinations will be non-existent - or rare at best.

Instead you will see Governments use a range of incentives to increase vaccine uptake... whether it is limiting the freedoms of the unvaccinated... or vaccine mandates to work in the public sector & contracting.... giving legal certainty to private organisations to do the same (e.g. universities). The proposition "get vaccinated or lose my job/privileges" seems harsh but it is still a _choice_.

In Singapore, unvaccinated people will have to pay their own medical bills.

If emergency care was flooded with cases... If the population had been given enough reasonable opportunity to get vaccinated, I would consider a triage policy where unvaccinated patients were deprioritised. In other words, effectively treat a lack of vaccination as a comorbidity.


On doing the right thing** for humanitarian reasons... perhaps you are an optimist and I am a pessimist. The past couple of decades seems littered with "the free world" making poor geopolitical and humanitarian choices. Modern politics has become such an occupation (not a a service/duty) that even the best governments are preoccupied with ensuring their own polling and electoral success.

(**I do not believe forced vaccination is the right thing at all. However I am in full support of incentive structures that makes life difficult for the unvaccinated)


----------



## Keith Sinclair

First Moderna shot nothing

Second Moderna sore arm slight chills fine next
day.

Third Moderna booster shot this week. Only half dose, sore arm, nausea, chills, headache all following day. I never get headaches. 

Thinking if more covid shots in the future try different vaccine.


----------



## Barmoley

My brother did three pfixer shots was also hit hardest after the third, pretty sick for 2 days. My parents felt the worst also after moderna booster, but not too bad. Seems that different vaccine booster might not help, just not known how you will react. Some people barely notice some get really sick.


----------



## gregfisk

I just had my Pfizer booster a few days ago and it hit me pretty damn hard. Bad joint pain and a terrible headache and fever. Lasted 2.5 days, exactly the same as my second shot several months ago. While I truly hate getting vaccinated I know from several people I know that I’m way better off getting the vaccination. I know 2 people now who have been fully vaccinated and still got Covid. Both of them originally had gotten J&J and hadn’t gotten their booster yet. They were also both sick for about two weeks but not hospitalized. I’m not trying to paint a picture here since obviously this is only 2 people I happen to know. What I do believe though is if these people hadn’t been vaccinated in the first place that they probably would have been hospitalized or worse. My only wish is that more people get vaccinated so that we slow down the spread and make the world a safer place.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Was In Singapore in 1990. Was impressed, many different ethnic groups & some mixed race like Hawaii. Strict laws are designed to favor the group with a healthy dose of capitalism in one of greatest seaports in the world. Clean, great food. 

Made me want to know Singapore history from Portuguese, Dutch, & English. When they gained 
Independence from colonial rule was conservative anti communist. When Chinese saw how Singapore was successful they sent people to study the model of government. They
began to change China 

Singapore has been threatened much since it was first established. It has quite a history. Muslim extremist from Indonesia wanted to take over small City State. 

They asked Israel to teach their small military in 
the ways of Intelligence & elite special forces.


----------



## Luftmensch

MarcelNL said:


> not so sure it was stupid to pause using AZ,





Jovidah said:


> Yeah it's a difficult position to be in. You want to be prudent because even if the side-effects being brought up are minimal or even completely absent, it might severely undermine vaccine acceptance.



Context counts for a lot.



juice said:


> They delivered the warning in a truly stupid fashion and caused all sorts of problems down here with people not getting injected as a result, putting us WAY behind schedule.



I am mixed on this. There is so much that could have been done better. Starting with a diverse range of vaccine contracts. I also agree Government messaging was poor.

I dont want to make excuses for the Government... but I think uptake was also hindered by the initial success and myth of 'fortress Australia'. You _might_ reasonably make the argument that the risk of AZ is too high at a population level, if you have low COVID circulation. Wait until the 'safer' vaccine becomes available. 

We were doing well... until... we weren't (Delta).

You can see the fingerprint of that experience now. The states that had a major Delta wave have higher vaccine rates than states that didnt. Initially this could be explained by supply issues. Not any more. Supply is sufficient. The reason WA has a lower vaccine rate isn't because of Pfizer or AZ. It is more likely because life has been relatively normal for them. They probably feel less urgency to roll up their sleeves.

During the wave in Sydney, you practically had to kill a person to get a booking... People wanted their vaccination yesterday.


----------



## Matus

Both my mom and mother in law already got their booster shots with no real side effects (both got 3x Pfizer if I am not mistaken). Some younger colleagues of mine were off the work for a few days after the first some, some after the second. Everyone reacts differently and it is hard to predict.

As was already mentioned - it is an interesting approach to force people who are eligible to be vaccinated but decide not to do so to be forced to pay their hospital bills if they end up in care with Covid. I am not saying it is not a gray area, but less gray then forced vaccination from my perspective. On the other hand - whether some can take such a step will depend on existing legislation, or it may require new laws to open that option. I am curios whether such a regulation will be really implemented. ICU beds are VERY expensive and paying for one from your own pocket for a few weeks could quickly endanger financial existence of a given person, so such decisions need to be considered very carefully.


----------



## Michi

Matus said:


> ICU beds are VERY expensive and paying for one from your own pocket for a few weeks could quickly endanger financial existence of a given person, so such decisions need to be considered very carefully.


That is a real problem with this idea. The people who end up having to pay for their own treatment most likely won't be able to afford it. So then, if the state tries to enforce the debt, they just end up adding to the pile of social welfare cases because someone ends up having to declare bankruptcy. Long term, that's more costly than treating people so they can get back to work and not end up living on welfare.


----------



## MarcelNL

Austria has announced mandatory vaccination starting Feb 2022, let's see if they can find the legal basis to really go that (IMO slippery) road...

Paying for hospital care for self inflicted damage IMO is a no go, unless there is a serious and broad discussion in society about the ethics of being responsible for the effects of pretty much ALL self inflicted damage... ICU/hospital capacity currently accounts for all kinds of 'objectively' stupid behaviour we used to have sufficient capacity for, hospital care is not designed for specific groups but it developed in a more or less organic way. Do I get to pay the hospital bill when I crash my car in Germany doing 230km/h? Does a long term smoker get to pay for the cancer surgery, do the morbidly obese pay for bariatric surgery, does someone who dropped an XTC pill too many on a festival pay? Not really, simply because those examples are already 'included in the mix', whereas Covid patients (vaccinated and non-vaccinated, in Belgium the mix on ICU is 50-50) are the 'new kid on the ICU block'. 

I do feel there ought to be a way to urge non vaxxers to re-consider, but a penalty after the fact IME is the worst method to enthusiasmate people to do anything, let alone make them do some open minded thinking.
Mandatory vaccination for me is out of the question as much as mandatory sterilization of certain groups, or doing medical experiments without informed consent.

What I do not see, not in in any country that I'm aware of, is a disscusion how we expect this virus to develop over time and what the implications on hospital care are... I do hear politicians griping (and the general public too) how it's a shame that ICU capacity has not been increased over the last 2 years, well hello...that takes a sort of landslide to make it happen at the ususal pay rate and work load and more importantly ; even if you can find the workforce it takes at least 8-10 years to meaningfully increase the highly skilled staff needed in hospitals, unless cloning and implanting skills and knowledge becomes a real option anytime soon.

From my perspective it's better to start an all out effort to reach all to date non vaccinated people by a.o, informing them, do whatever it takes . f.e. do a TV program on 'a day in ICU' or whatever to show the real deal. Bottom line is, we'll never reach 100% vax rates but we should make an effort to make the number as low as possible, yet our care systems will need to be adapted to deal with Covid until it is no longer, something I hear experts across the board say is an unlikely thing to happen.

Mandatory regular testing (followed by isolation once positive) seems a more effective route, test the heck out of us all to minimize the risk of infecting others. Vaccination helps minimizing the risk of transmission but the experts agree that with the delta variant herd immunity is no longer feasible...so vaccination really is to protect yourself, and it helps spreading the virus to some extent, but there is not much of a whopping reason to exclude the unvaccinated from anything IMO...test the heck out of EVERYONE, and FU on positive cases making reasonably sure they isolate themselves until no longer infectious.


----------



## Luftmensch

Matus said:


> I am curios whether such a regulation will be really implemented. ICU beds are VERY expensive and paying for one from your own pocket for a few weeks could quickly endanger financial existence of a given person, so such decisions need to be considered very carefully.





Michi said:


> That is a real problem with this idea. The people who end up having to pay for their own treatment most likely won't be able to afford it.





MarcelNL said:


> Paying for hospital care for self inflicted damage IMO is a no go, unless there is a serious and broad discussion in society about the ethics of being responsible for the effects of pretty much ALL self inflicted damage



Great points. I agree.

I often wonder if the point of these announcements.... is _the announcement_. Perhaps the authorities are less concerned about actually enforcing them than sending a signal to the population that there are positive or negative incentives to get vaccinated. Of course if you admit the announcement are primarily just motivational tool... then the announcement loses any intended effect....

... it must be very frustrating to be a public health official fighting stubborn vaccination uptake. How do you motivate the remaining population to participate if they have been given ample opportunity? I certainly don't have any answers... but it is interesting seeing how different jurisdictions are approaching the problem.


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> Perhaps the authorities are less concerned about actually enforcing them than sending a signal to the population that there are positive or negative incentives to get vaccinated.


Maybe in Singapore. In Australia, not a chance. Any idea of legislating that people who are not vaccinated and get Covid have to pay for their own treatment will result in losing the next election, guaranteed.

But there are other levers that can be pulled. Such as not allowing people without double vaccination into restaurants and the like.

After all of Australia's initial monumental stuff-ups regarding vaccination, it now looks like we'll end up being one of the most vaccinated countries in the world. Good thing, too. Just look at what's currently going on in Austria and Germany. Not pretty 


Luftmensch said:


> ... it must be very frustrating to be a public health official fighting stubborn vaccination uptake.


I'd absolutely hate to have that job. These people have literally been working their guts out to stop the population from getting decimated by the virus. And, for all their efforts, they get death threats. Talk about a thankless job…


----------



## MarcelNL

I just hope authorities do not make themselves guilty of 'sending signals' in the form of loudly shouting nonsense, IMO that is the best way to alienate more people than we're already dealing with.

I just read the results from a survey amongst 2500 non vaccinated respondees, and it shows that (in NL) about 10% will not ever get vaccinated, whereas approx 30% could be convinced to get vaccinated.

Frustrating and challenging as it might be, we will have to engage that group whatever size it has, the 30% or so, in order to try take away the lack of trust. Do not forget that for the last 30-40 years Pharma did not get a good rep in the press, some of that is self inflicted damage but there has much nonsense in the news...undoing that damage will take time, and lots of it.

Meanwhile we also need to embrace the fact that Covid is not going anywhere anytime soon and finally START taking action in order to have a hope of ever coming to grips with Covid as a new disease in our society.


----------



## riba

A bit of vaccinated attitude. NSFW, though it depends on your workplace.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Michi said:


> That is a real problem with this idea. The people who end up having to pay for their own treatment most likely won't be able to afford it. So then, if the state tries to enforce the debt, they just end up adding to the pile of social welfare cases because someone ends up having to declare bankruptcy. Long term, that's more costly than treating people so they can get back to work and not end up living on welfare.



The article posted was Singapore. Of coarse what they do would never work elsewhere. For the very reasons you stated. Here most all hospitalized with no vaccine could not afford it even one day. 

Also they already have one of highest vaccine rates around 85%. It's a version of if you don't get vaccine to make our very high density City State safer you will pay. If you get your shots we will pay.


----------



## juice

Michi said:


> That is a real problem with this idea. The people who end up having to pay for their own treatment most likely won't be able to afford it. So then, if the state tries to enforce the debt, they just end up adding to the pile of social welfare cases because someone ends up having to declare bankruptcy. Long term, that's more costly than treating people so they can get back to work and not end up living on welfare.


Communist


----------



## Noxion

Luftmensch said:


> Depends what you mean. Truly forced vaccinations will be non-existent - or rare at best.
> 
> Instead...



I didn't elaborate on the "forced", but everything what you've listed is a form of forcing.
The problem with the Western world is that the whole political system is based on activism and short term publicity. Also, a good indicator; at the height of economical and industrial development all these modern Western states accumulated massive debt.
Therefore the forcing will be done through the back door. One just needs a critical mass of activists.
_____
The booster seems to hit hard; same experience as some here listed. 
Still, 6 months seem to be too far apart for real protection. Maybe doing boosters after 4 months makes the side effects less pronounced?


----------



## MarcelNL

The side effects are IMO not relevant enough to worry about, they mean that our immune system is getting activated. I recall (vagely) how my last Dipteria/tetanus etc shot felt, or my Hep B vaccinations...they all came with 1 or 2 days of not feeling well.
The optimal period between vaccinations will be different for many individuals, a mean value will be found.


----------



## chiffonodd

Michi said:


> That is a real problem with this idea. The people who end up having to pay for their own treatment most likely won't be able to afford it. So then, if the state tries to enforce the debt, they just end up adding to the pile of social welfare cases because someone ends up having to declare bankruptcy. Long term, that's more costly than treating people so they can get back to work and not end up living on welfare.



Sir do you mean to suggest that public policy choices can have unintended consequences??


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> Maybe in Singapore. In Australia, not a chance. Any idea of legislating that people who are not vaccinated and get Covid have to pay for their own treatment will result in losing the next election, guaranteed.



Oh for sure... That would not be politically feasible in Australia. My point isn't so much about any _specific_ policy. I was musing on the nature of Government _announcements_ (positive or negative) as incentive signals.

NSW has been using a mixture of incentives. So long as you don't live in Western Sydney, the Government has largely used the 'carrot' and not the 'stick'. A prime example of this was the "picnic rules" during the Delta wave. Here is a quote from the NSW Chief Health Officer on the picnic rules [ref]:



> By then, in September, the weather will be a nice time, and we know that outdoor spaces are less risk. *What we’re doing is also incentivising vaccination*, because to avail yourself of this, you have to be vaccinated



Emphasis mine. Dont get me wrong... relaxation to the rules are likely to have had some basis in modelling and risk assessment... but they were often tied to the global vaccination rate and applied only to vaccinated individuals. They were also announced well ahead of the targets they were tied to. There was clearly a strategy to send a message that we could enjoy increased freedoms sooner by all getting vaccinated as quickly as possible. It also allowed us to 'open up' relatively gradually.

I can't say the picnic rules specifically influenced anybody I know to get vaccinated. Everybody in my orbit was proactive about vaccination. BUT; I have many social friends who greatly appreciated the picnic rules and used them as soon as they were available. I have one forward looking friend who got vaccinated very early, before the Delta wave, because they correctly predicted a world of increased freedoms for the vaccinated. Before Delta, many good people were complacent and waiting to hear good news about Pfizer supply. My age cohort was also not in the eligible vaccine phase when this all began...

But Australia is a moderate country. NSW (population 8M) now has 94.3% 1st dose and 91.7% 2nd dose. The authorities were largely trying to motivate distracted, busy and complacent people. They were NOT trying to motivate large populations of skeptical people.


----------



## Luftmensch

Noxion said:


> I didn't elaborate on the "forced", but everything what you've listed is a form of forcing.



I respectfully disagree. Although I understand it is easy to view the line between _coercion_ and _forcing_ as paper thin.

In my mind... if it is _legal_ to be *un*vaccinated, then no citizen is being 'forced'. There is no human right or reasonable philosophy that asserts our choices in life should be divorced of consequences.

While I agree that vaccine mandates for employment is heavy _coercion_... you still have the legal freedom to remain unvaccinated. The consequences of your lifestyle choices are yours to bear. Employment contracts are littered with obligations that stymie your 'freedoms'. Here is a glib example, you can't sell your company's IP to a competitor without obvious consequences.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Travel pushed many holdouts to take vaccine.
To come to Hawaii first time opened up had to show proof of vac. Mainlanders flooded Oahu, after long shutdown rental cars scarce. They were chopping at the bit to come to Hawaii after long shutdown. Then Delta hit us asked tourist not to come. That's when nephew came 
for honeymoon. It was great for them almost no tourist let them use my Forrester the whole time. 

One of my sister's didn't want vaccine the only reason she gave in was to visit her daughter & grandkids in California. Making it tough for the 
holdouts works.


----------



## Noxion

Luftmensch said:


> I respectfully disagree. Although I understand it is easy to view the line between _coercion_ and _forcing_ as paper thin.
> In my mind... if it is _legal_ to be *un*vaccinated, then no citizen is being 'forced'. There is no human right or reasonable philosophy that asserts our choices in life should be divorced of consequences.



I'm speaking about everyday life not legal, semantics, etc. This is the real issue with the "modern" Western society; forgot that a human is an animal and that our thoughts fiction can't influence the reality of our biological roots. 
That's because it was decided that an epidemic can be "managed". It can't, it can be only dealt with on a biological basis.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

It's kind of like smoking cigarettes before on planes, Bars, eating places, movies, billboard ads. Magazines, sports ads. Smoking was everywhere. Big tobacco co. lying through their teeth saying no evidence nicotine addictive &
false claims that don't cause lung cancer.

To making it so bad for smokers anywhere. 
Workers that smoked at Kahala Hilton had to do it outside by the stinky garbage bins. 

Cigarettes weren't banned, just socially unfit to bother anyone else with second hand smoke.


----------



## Noxion

Keith Sinclair said:


> Cigarettes weren't banned, just socially unfit to bother anyone else with second hand smoke.



Our perceptions are a very powerful engine. 
I remember the chemistry teacher asking loudly "are we animals?" The class: "noooo". The loudest were of course those who were angling for good votes. The fun was asking if they were therefore plants.


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> Both sides claim to own the "Science". Neither side seems to.



"both sides" is appropriate for describing the crowd at football games.

when it comes to 770,000 deaths in the US alone, and one "side" is helping the virus add to its body count, this sort of framing doesnt apply IMO.


----------



## daveb

And that would be one sides collective opinion....

Pick the conclusion you want and you'll find a plethora of "science" to support it.


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> And that would be one sides collective opinion....
> 
> Pick the conclusion you want and you'll find a plethora of "science" to support it.



I mean you can put an equals sign between any two things and pretend like that's valid.

also in this case this isnt about opinion. until the 1980s there were a shared set of facts that both sides agreed on. it was the interpretation that varied. today, there is one side that has left that base of facts and gone with an alternative set. the same is NOT true of the pro-vaccine side.

in fact, the most powerful people in the side you claim has some equal value dont actually believe the stuff their tribe does. that's why they all have vaccines. that's why at a party for an extremely old and powerful media magnate who distributes a large percentage of anti-vaccine work they didnt just require you to have proof of vaccination, they had rapid response tests.

but then I do understand, it's much easier for humans to keep believing in the con than to accept you got conned.


----------



## spaceconvoy

tcmx3 said:


> I mean you can put an equals sign between any two things and pretend like that's valid.
> 
> also in this case this isnt about opinion. until the 1980s there were a shared set of facts that both sides agreed on. it was the interpretation that varied. today, there is one side that has left that base of facts and gone with an alternative set. the same is NOT true of the pro-vaccine side.
> 
> in fact, the most powerful people in the side you claim has some equal value dont actually believe the stuff their tribe does. that's why they all have vaccines. that's why at a party for an extremely old and powerful media magnate who distributes a large percentage of anti-vaccine work they didnt just require you to have proof of vaccination, they had rapid response tests.
> 
> but then I do understand, it's much easier for humans to keep believing in the con than to accept you got conned.


What's the opposite of self-awareness? Never mind, keep absorbing that twitter discourse


----------



## tcmx3

spaceconvoy said:


> What's the opposite of self-awareness?



dunno youre the expert on that subject so you tell me


----------



## daveb

tcmx3 said:


> .... it's much easier for humans to keep believing in the con than to accept you got conned.



Which argument are you making?


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> Which argument are you making?



well I thought it was pretty self explanatory but with anti-vaxx, you're either in on the con or you're being conned. and it's well known that people who get conned actually consider the psychological cost of admitting they've been conned higher than continuing along with it and it makes it INCREDIBLY difficult for folks who've bought into the whole thing to get out.

and that's how you get people showing up at the hospital with their loved ones, scared they will lose them, who scream at the doctors to prescribe ivermectin.


----------



## daveb

And I'm sure that you'll keep believing that without question. 

Yawn.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

I love blabbing about Singapore. In 1990 went to mainland china, Hong Kong, Singapore, & India. 
At the time the English old ferries we're still running in Hong Kong harbor. 






Remember stepping on some chewing gum where I was sitting on the ferry. 

Later went to Singapore found that it was illegal to chew gum there. At the time to me it made perfect sense. Two major harbors in the East, both densely populated city states. 

It was also a very clean city. I took this picture these were not posted everywhere nor did you see any police around to enforce it. No need socially littering there was considered criminal.





I later read an article about Singapore where they mentioned that chewing gum was illegal there how crazy that was.


----------



## Barmoley

Some people just can't seem to understand or believe that you can be pro vax and against forced vax or vax mandates or in general question how things are done. It is not one or the other. It is not binary. It really is more complicated than some try to make it out to be.


----------



## JDC

Just to contribute some data points.
I was three days into my Pfizer booster and was invited to a small event where everyone was vaccinated. One person was coughing a little during the 6-hour event, in door, but it didn't raise any alarm. The other day we all received emails from this person saying that the person felt terrible in the morning and just tested positive.
Most of us in the event had booster shots and none were infected. But the person who had COVID infected the whole household with most family members due for the booster.

In those 6 hours we were handshaking, eating and chatting. All other attendees did multiple tests in the following weeks and we were all fine.


----------



## Jovidah

I'm not sure it's helpful to think of 'sides'... the people who choose not to get vaccinated are not a monolithic homogenuous group and there's people with very different backgrounds and demographics in there and very different motivations. Same applies to people who do get vaccinated.
Why the whole thing got politicized in the US is beyond me... it's mindboggling. You'd think everyone has roughly the same interest in keeping their electorate alive and well.

That being said... science is not religion. While people like to pick and choose whatever suits their argument a la carte, and this may give the impression that science either has no answer or is 'on both sides', that doesn't mean there can't be an overwhelming indication towards one course of action or treatment being preferable over another.
How you choose to convert that into policy and how to implement that however is another matter entirely; then you get into politics, ethics, etc.


----------



## Luftmensch

daveb said:


> Pick the conclusion you want and you'll find a plethora of "science" to support it.



I agree that this statement is 'true'... but what next? I am not sure what real value it provides? The problem is, there is so much disinformation out there....

Having a position and seeking out information to affirm your beliefs is profoundly unscientific (I know you are not advocating for this). One of the primary goals of the scientific method is to remove cognitive biases from the process and let the evidence speak for itself. It is clearly unscientific when the "evidence" used to support a hypothesis isn't even grounded in demonstrable fact.

Bear with me, this relates to the next point.




Jovidah said:


> How you choose to convert that into policy and how to implement that however is another matter entirely; then you get into politics, ethics, etc.



While I agree 100%... it makes the fatal assumption that all stakeholders agree on basic facts. For the past 50 years money and vested interest have learned how to pollute the information space. Now stakeholders don't even agree on a shared set of basic facts.

Climate change is a perfect example. I don't care one bit if you say "_climate change is real but I dont want to do anything about it_". It agrees with humanity's best evidence and is honest about your intentions. I _do_ care if the conversation space is polluted with a torrent of misinformation about how climate change is some hoax or conspiracy. I have increasingly disengaged from those conversations because they are often divided along unproductive ideological lines.


----------



## Luftmensch

Noxion said:


> I'm speaking about everyday life not legal, semantics, etc.



As frustrating as it may be... if you want to talk about 'freedoms' or 'rights', semantics are _everything_. Semantics are the vehicle that is used and abused to write and interpret laws and constitutions.

I'll repeat, if it is legal to be unvaccinated, I don't see how anybody is being _forced_ to take a vaccine? I acknowledge that sort of policy will impose on some belief systems and cause difficult decisions... but life is littered with tradeoffs....


----------



## MarcelNL

Luftmensch said:


> While I agree 100%... it makes the fatal assumption that all stakeholders agree on basic facts. For the past 50 years money and vested interest have learned how to pollute the information space. Now stakeholders don't even agree on a shared set of basic facts.


I fully agree with what you said there. The biggest problem I see is that people/groups that often are not even the key stakeholders pose as if they are, when f.e. politicians start to 'work' public opinion based information that is proven to be non factual, things get a bit scary IMO.


----------



## Noxion

Luftmensch said:


> As frustrating as it may be... if you want to talk about 'freedoms' or 'rights', semantics are _everything_. Semantics are the vehicle that is used and abused to write and interpret laws and constitutions.



'freedoms' or 'rights' as writing and interpreting laws and constitutions are a moments flicker; they come and go in the hundreds of thousand years of human existence. That's why it was once said that you cannot govern if you lack a good understanding of history.


----------



## Jovidah

Luftmensch said:


> I agree that this statement is 'true'... but what next? I am not sure what real value it provides? The problem is so much disinformation out there....
> 
> Having a position and seeking out information to affirm your beliefs is profoundly unscientific (I know you are not advocating for this). One of the primary goals of the scientific method is to remove cognitive biases from the process and let the evidence speak for itself. It is clearly unscientific when the "evidence" used to support a hypothesis isn't even grounded in demonstrable fact.


This was also what I was getting at. The way a lot of people basically pick and choose individual research reports to support whatever statement or position they are trying to defend has nothing to do with proper science and scientific method. It doesn't help that most reporters and journalists - even the ones with the best of intentions - tend to take this same approach, and often don't have a clue how to properly read a scientific article, or lack the overview of the entire body of literature to properly interpret and contextualize it.



> While I agree 100%... it makes the fatal assumption that all stakeholders agree on basic facts. For the past 50 years money and vested interest have learned how to pollute the information space. Now stakeholders don't even agree on a shared set of basic facts.
> 
> Climate change is a perfect example. I don't care one bit if you say "_climate change is real but I dont want to do anything about it_". It agrees with humanity's best evidence and is honest about your intentions. I _do_ care if the conversation space is polluted with a torrent of misinformation about how climate change is some hoax or conspiracy. I have increasingly disengaged from those conversations because they are often divided along unproductive ideological lines.


I honestly wouldn't be surprised if a lot of this misinformation was fed by outside actors. The Soviet Union had a long history of trying to feed anything that could potentially disrupt, distabilize and divide their adversaries ('active measures'). It would be naive to think that the Russian Federation and countries like China aren't doing the same thing now. What better way to knock out your competitors than have them dealing with all these COVID-related problems for years to come!

I just don't understand why some high profile figures are so willing to tag along with it though; yes you might have some short-term individual political gain but in the long-term it's just shooting your own country in the foot.

_Especially _when it comes to climate change, don't underestimate that not everyone shares the same interests. There are plenty of countries whose economies rely massively on fossil fuel exports, or whose economies would actually benefit from global warming; again Russia is a good example of both, but not the only one.
They have every reason to do whatever they can to 'pollute the debate' and try to disrupt any progress on that agenda. I think it's really a blind spot in a lot of discussions on the matter; not all countries share the same goals.


----------



## MarcelNL

It appears we no longer need outside actors to spread nonsense, actors like Russia and China etc may well actively support the spreading of nonsense and the tactics sure fit their MO, yet the fertile soil needs to be present for anything to grow, and that condition is met.

In Germany the 'news broadcaster' RT Deutsch (Federal Russian state controlled channel) is under increasing scrutiny, for spreading Covid 'misinformatsya'... I'm sure there are numerous other and far less obvious influences, but here too it is the science behind what BS they convey that does not change, as crappy as the interpretation or selection of what is presented may be, the power of science is that it will cut through the crap like some Aogami Super straight off a stone. The big question is how to best reach the audience with the objective facts.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

I know my sister who resisted vaccine is religious don't know what sites she goes too, but she would say things like pregnant women
shouldn't take vaccine & that healthy people die after taking vac. shots. 

Must be same as here in Hawaii unvac. three young pregnant mothers died & others very sick. No vaccinated Mothers died or got seriously ill.


----------



## Michi

Some recent numbers from NSW about hospitalisations due to Covid.

78.6% were unvaccinated or had unknown status,
18.1% were partially vaccinated,
3.3% were fully vaccinated.
It is a similar story for ICU admissions: 2.2% of ICU patients were fully vaccinated, the remainder partially or unvaccinated (or status unknown).

For fatalities, 2.2% of fatalities were fully vaccinated; all those cases were aged 70 and above.

I don't have to be a mental giant to work out that I'm better off with the vaccine than without.


----------



## Nemo

Michi said:


> Some recent numbers from NSW about hospitalisations due to Covid.
> 
> 78.6% were unvaccinated or had unknown status,
> 18.1% were partially vaccinated,
> 3.3% were fully vaccinated.
> It is a similar story for ICU admissions: 2.2% of ICU patients were fully vaccinated, the remainder partially or unvaccinated (or status unknown).
> 
> For fatalities, 2.2% of fatalities were fully vaccinated; all those cases were aged 70 and above.
> 
> I don't have to be a mental giant to work out that I'm better off with the vaccine than without.



It's worth noting that NSW has over 90% double vaccination rates (of those over 16 years old).


----------



## MarcelNL

Those numbers are similar to what we saw here until a few weeks ago...all numbers are restrospective data, which seems to be the major issue in 'making policies' going forward, though IMO you are absolutely right in drawing the conclusion that you're better off with vaccine than without...with billions now vaccinated the side effects that previously were taken out of any realistic context should be prevalent in the official statistics and they are not.

Still the situation changes, those booster shots seem to be much needed.

interesting read, yes it's from a smal country but their academia is top notch and so is health care in general in Belgium! Only thing against it is that the article is now a month old, still; the general gist of it remains intact and I see a similar picture in the Netherlands, Germany and Austria.









70% of hospitalised Covid patients are vaccinated, but the vaccines are working


Belgian health minister Vandenbroucke (Flemish socialist/Vooruit) told the health select committee up to seventy percent of Covid patients in Flemish hospitals are fully vaccinated. The figure may raise an eyebrow, but on closer inspection doesn’t m




www.vrt.be


----------



## Matus

Just to state the obvious: Looking at hospitalization numbers and breaking them down to vaccinated / non- vaccinated / recovered / etc. makes sense ONLY if these are broken down to age categories and normalized to the respective numbers. Imagine someone comes up and say: 'hay, in country X there is 50% vaccinated in ICU' - then it really matters to have a look and find what age category the patients are and what fraction of that age category is actually vaccinated. Otherwise one can twist the argument the way they want.


----------



## Michi

Matus said:


> Looking at hospitalization numbers and breaking them down to vaccinated / non- vaccinated / recovered / etc. makes sense ONLY if these are broken down to age categories and normalized to the respective numbers.


Yes that's an important point. Imagine a country where everyone is fully vaccinated. A small proportion of the population will still get hospitalised, because the vaccine is not perfect and wears off with time. But, in such a country, 100% of all hospitalised people are fully vaccinated. This does _not_ mean that the vaccine does not work.

In NSW, we are well over 90% fully vaccinated now. And _still_ the vast majority of people in hospital are unvaccinated, _despite_ the fact that they account for less than 10% of the population. In other words, with the vaccine, I'm very unlikely to end up in hospital compared to the odds if I'm not vaccinated.


----------



## ian

daveb said:


> Pick the conclusion you want and you'll find a plethora of "science" to support it.



The reason it seems like you can always do this nowadays is that some journalists and politicians ignore the scientific consensus and cherrypick either problematic or unsupported articles. For the most part, this isn't a science problem, it's a media problem. There are certainly some examples where there's not a real scientific consensus (probably some economic issues, for instance?), but to my knowledge there's no real disagreement in the scientific community about the fact that universal vaccination would be a good tool in the fight against the pandemic. That said, the situation early in the pandemic definitely gave science a bad rap: the world changed so quickly and we had to respond quickly, so policy was made partly using guesswork and partly for badly communicated reasons (e.g. don't wear masks because we need to save them for healthcare workers). Some of the guesses turned out to be wrong, understandably, which has given people a lot of fodder for criticism, even though not guessing and not doing anything would not have been a good option either.

Anyway, this hasn't seemed to be your point about vaccines, though, has it? I've taken your point to be that a significant number of people -- e.g. healthcare workers and people in hospitality -- are hesitant about vaccines and that mandating vaccines would result in these people leaving their jobs and straining those industries. That's certainly a valid concern, but it's a policy problem, not a science problem. In an ideal world, my solution to this would be to root out the rampant disinformation out there about vaccines so that less people are hesitant for bogus reasons, rather than reasonable ones specific to their situation, whatever those may be. However, I'm sure people pushing for the mandates are thinking "there's no way we can accomplish that in this environment, and we need to fight the pandemic NOW!".

I guess I'm posting all this because I get a bit amped up about "both sides"-ism nowadays, for instance because of the climate debate, which is one of the most extreme examples where science supports one end of the political spectrum. The consensus in the climate science community has been dire for decades, and one party has been consistently downplaying the risks. It's only in the last few years that they've started to even acknowledge that climate change is real, and that humans have a role in it, though there's been no real question about that in the scientific community for ages now. It may be literally true that you can find "science" to support whatever opinion you want, but when one opinion is supported by 99% of papers and the other is supported by 1% of papers, that's not parity. Anyway, this isn't so related to your point about vaccination mandates.


----------



## daveb

Thanks Ian. I guess I get wound up with both sides when the use "science" to explain past events that they (seemingly) have no effing idea about and with no regard to the consequences of their "solutions". 

I'm a simple old man but do remember when science could be used as a predictive tool. Can anyone take the available data and predict, accurately, what the Covid rates will be next month and where? There are plenty who will make SWAGs and then use new science to explain why they were wrong - if they even acknowledge they were wrong.

In the real world I've had to compile lists of employees by vax status, submit copies of vax cards (against Fl law by the way), compile lists of vax objections (which will all be denied) and have to be prepared to lose all non-vax employees on Dec 5. Merry Christmas. My company has been very clear that they will fight any unemployment action based on the employees vax choice. All while Covid vax mandates are on hold through court challenge. And yes, I'm dusting off resume.


----------



## Matus

Since the discussion is getting too serious at times (even though, sadly, for good reasons), I just leave this here ...


----------



## Keith Sinclair

In the USA many people are obese & have under lying conditions, not to mention old age.

These are the ones that get hit hardest. 

As for mask and having disinfecting wipes and gel in my car have not even had anything since covid 19 started. Makes you realize that a few good habits truly make a difference. I knew that I caught colds in past because touched something or was around sick people that still went to work. Then touched my face before washing hands. Just took a virus that is a threat to senors to make you change habits hopefully for good as these virus & variants are basic continuing biological condition


----------



## MarcelNL

@daveb There certainly are data scientists making models capable of making very accurate predictions, and they actually do publish them in the NL ...whether politicians follow those predictions when making decisions is another topic.

@Matus those breakdowns are also available, your point is totally correct yet I did not wat to end up with number salad...I mean, it's not as if we do not have access to the data or there is nobody looking at the data that knows what they are doing...I just don't understand why seemingly reasonable people would care to ignore the obvious facts or believe someone talking nonsense without even trying to find the data.

Here you find the recent data that roughly correlates with the article I quoted, though you may have to learn Dutch ;-)


https://covid-19.sciensano.be/sites/default/files/Covid19/COVID-19_THEMATIC%20REPORT_COVID-19%20HOSPITALISED%20PATIENTS_NL.pdf


----------



## tcmx3

MarcelNL said:


> @daveb There certainly are data scientists making models capable of making very accurate predictions, and they actually do publish them in the NL ...whether politicians follow those predictions when making decisions is another topic.



people like Dave do not listen to us. look at the prior conversation. it is impossible to give a satisfactory answer to someone like him because his response to not understanding empirical methodology is not to listen, it is instead to throw his hands up and say "both sides" as cover and keep on believing what he already believes.

humorously that contingent is really convinced they know better too. but I mean the world doesnt agree that's why I get to do what I do professionally and they dont


----------



## ian

tcmx3 said:


> people like Dave do not listen to us. look at the prior conversation. it is impossible to give a satisfactory answer to someone like him because his response to not understanding empirical methodology is not to listen, it is instead to throw his hands up and say "both sides" as cover and keep on believing what he already believes.
> 
> humorously that contingent is really convinced they know better too. but I mean the world doesnt agree that's why I get to do what I do professionally and they dont



Hey come on now, it’s possible to disagree with someone without insulting them.


----------



## Jovidah

tcmx3 said:


> people like Dave do not listen to us. look at the prior conversation. it is impossible to give a satisfactory answer to someone like him because his response to not understanding empirical methodology is not to listen, it is instead to throw his hands up and say "both sides" as cover and keep on believing what he already believes.
> 
> humorously that contingent is really convinced they know better too. but I mean the world doesnt agree that's why I get to do what I do professionally and they dont


I don't want to nitpick too much (or insert myself into this fight), but if you go back far enough you'll see Dave commenting that he did get vaccinated.


----------



## tcmx3

ian said:


> Hey come on now, it’s possible to disagree with someone without insulting them.



Im not insulting him. Im explaining the pattern of behavior, that's all.

If I were to go into the BoH section of the forum and start being as aggressively ignorant, it would be perfectly appropriate for people to do the same. you will notice, however, a lack of posts on my account explaining to professionals in the food industry how their kitchens work.

what do you want me to say? that I respect his opinion on something he isnt qualified to talk about? not everyone has something valuable to add about every subject. Im not gonna go into the metallurgy threads or professional kitchen threads and act like Dave does because it's awful behavior IMO, and him being an admin doesnt change that IMO

as it happens I am a professional in the area of statistics and experimental methodology. if I see someone trying to state something as obviously incorrect as what started this, Im going to correct them.


----------



## tcmx3

Jovidah said:


> I don't want to nitpick too much (or insert myself into this fight), but if you go back far enough you'll see Dave commenting that he did get vaccinated.



this isnt about 1 person getting vaccinated. it's about a horrific false equivalence that suggests that the people trying desperately to improve the situation are at all equal to the horse dewormer facebook people. in the US we have had hundreds of thousands of deaths due to covid and some people are making it worse for politically motivated reasons.

to say that they have just as much claim to "the science" is insulting to the dead, and those who will live with covid complications for the rest of their lives.


----------



## Jovidah

My point was just that I'd be hesitant to make any assumptions about what 'camp' someone is in - if any. 
I understand where you're coming from and I agree with a lot of what you're saying - but I can also understand his position that some well-intended policy measures to improve the situation might have other unintended consequences 'on the ground'.


----------



## mpier

tcmx3 said:


> Im not insulting him. Im explaining the pattern of behavior, that's all.
> 
> If I were to go into the BoH section of the forum and start being as aggressively ignorant, it would be perfectly appropriate for people to do the same. you will notice, however, a lack of posts on my account explaining to professionals in the food industry how their kitchens work.
> 
> what do you want me to say? that I respect his opinion on something he isnt qualified to talk about? not everyone has something valuable to add about every subject. Im not gonna go into the metallurgy threads or professional kitchen threads and act like Dave does because it's awful behavior IMO, and him being an admin doesnt change that IMO
> 
> as it happens I am a professional in the area of statistics and experimental methodology. if I see someone trying to state something as obviously incorrect as what started this, Im going to correct them.


 you are and have been completely insulting people with your little high on the horse jabs and yet you are so ignorant you can’t see it I guess.


----------



## ian

tcmx3 said:


> what do you want me to say? that I respect his opinion on something he isnt qualified to talk about? not everyone has something valuable to add about every subject. Im not gonna go into the metallurgy threads or professional kitchen threads and act like Dave does because it's awful behavior IMO, and him being an admin doesnt change that IMO



Hmmm, I don't think you have to respect someone's opinion, it's just that your criticism is essentially "this person is beyond hope", which is uncharitabe and not helpful. If you started telling people how to run a commercial kitchen in the BoH threads, I'd hope that people would just tell you why you're wrong. But in some sense that's also a more extreme example than what's happening here. This is a forum for knife nerds, so presumably at least 80% of the people responding in the BoH thread would be actual experts who spend their days working in kitchens, which would make your opinion really stand out. This thread isn't for experts --- it's just for us all to b*tch about covid. Basically noone here is an actual expert on what they post here. Yes, some people have more scientific background than others, others may be experts in statistical methods, and there are even one or two people who work in epidemiology, but we're basically all just saying stuff we got from the media, or at best by reading the abstracts or first couple pages of a few research studies. 

This kind of attitude just doesn't help. If you really think people on here are beyond hope, why comment? All it does is turn the conversation sour and makes people more entrenched. I mean, you asked "what do you want me to say", and while I'd really want you to say what comes genuinely from your own thoughts, I did also respond to Dave's post, so presumably that's one example of what I think is a reasonable response.


----------



## tcmx3

ian said:


> If you really think people on here are beyond hope, why comment?



because we should not allow voices that give credence to information that has a human cost to go unchallenged.

furthermore, as a site administrator, what Dave says is easily interpretable as a tacit endorsement. 

if there is one thing COVID has made clear, it is that certain demographics, including the one most represented on this forum, give inadequate consideration to the consequences of their actions. this is a perfect example of that


----------



## ian

tcmx3 said:


> because we should not allow voices that give credence to information that has a human cost to go unchallenged.



Fair enough, there. Maybe I shouldn't have said "why comment". My general point, though, is that many people commenting on this thread are able to challenge someone without insulting or dismissing them, and that usually ends up being more effective.


----------



## mpier

ian said:


> Fair enough, there. Maybe I shouldn't have said "why comment". My general point, though, is that many people commenting on this thread are able to challenge someone without insulting or dismissing them, and that usually ends up being more effective.


exactly


----------



## gregfisk

tcmx3, while I agree with your thoughts on this whole Covid issue I don’t think insulting people who don’t agree with you is productive. Unfortunately your not going to change anyone’s mind no matter how solid your statistics are. As of about a week ago in the US 91% of Democrats and 56% of Republicans are vaccinated. For a deadly virus that doesn’t have anything to do with politics that is a remarkable statistic. There is obviously a lot of misinformation being spread about and that information has been deadly. While mandates are fairly harsh, at this point in time I think they are needed. From what I’ve read regarding people leaving in mass because of mandates it just isn’t happening. When it comes right down to it most people will get vaccinated rather than lose their livelihood.


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## Barmoley

The area where I live is very heavily democratic leaning. The restaurants in the area can't find workers. The Starbucks close to me now closes at 2:30 pm because they can't find vaccinated workers. Most people working at restaurants and Starbucks are young people in their 20s or early 30s. Gymnastics gyms in the area can't find coaches for the same reason and the coach demographic is similar. So at least in my tiny sample of the economy people are leaving their jobs due to mandates.

Now, I believe the vaccines work and are safe for most, so I don't necessarily understand what the issue is, but we can't deny that part of the population that is less hit by serious covid danger is not willing to be vaccinated and is perfectly fine leaving their jobs.


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## tcmx3

Barmoley said:


> The area where I live is very heavily democratic leaning. The restaurants in the area can't find workers. The Starbucks close to me now closes at 2:30 pm because they can't find vaccinated workers. Most people working at restaurants and Starbucks are young people in their 20s or early 30s. Gymnastics gyms in the area can't find coaches for the same reason and the coach demographic is similar. So at least in my tiny sample of the economy people are leaving their jobs due to mandates.



there is a country wide shortage of employees for jobs that are exempt from minimum wage laws, and the ones at minimum wage arent doing that much better. especially with Amazon paying 15/hr in most of these markets. wouldnt it be at least as likely that that is the explanation for what you're seeing?

you say it's "due" to the mandates but out of curiosity how are you establishing it is the mandates causing the shortage and not too many alternative job options, expanded unemployment benefits (though there's a TON of evidence now those did not depress the supply of workers), etc?

btw as additional counter-evidence, I live in a state where the state legislature leans HARD the other direction and pre-empts nearly all local laws and we have the exact same problems. what my area and yours share in common is that there is now significant upward wage pressure and people simply do not have to agree to work for so little anymore.


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## Edge

tcmx3 said:


> because we should not allow voices that give credence to information that has a human cost to go unchallenged.
> 
> furthermore, as a site administrator, what Dave says is easily interpretable as a tacit endorsement.
> 
> if there is one thing COVID has made clear, it is that certain demographics, including the one most represented on this forum, give inadequate consideration to the consequences of their actions. this is a perfect example of that



And I endorse @daveb and his postings. And I have found that a some folks think that those that don't agree with them or biased or ignorant. And I'm happy you have that job. But I have found that numbers/statistics can prove anything. It's just how you word the question to get the answers you are wanting.

And everyone here can lay off the insults to others. No one here is better than another, even if they think they are.


----------



## Helicon

Barmoley said:


> So at least in my tiny sample of the economy people are leaving their jobs due to mandates.
> 
> Now, I believe the vaccines work and are safe for most, so I don't necessarily understand what the issue is, but we can't deny that part of the population that is less hit by serious covid danger is not willing to be vaccinated and is perfectly fine leaving their jobs.



You've made a rather wild assumption in your post, specifically that people are leaving their jobs *because* of vaccine mandates. Plenty of hospitality and service workers have left similar low-paying jobs in other countries, too, especially younger ones, and that's not because of mandates – because by and large there aren't any. What evidence do you have that this is related to vaccine mandates, instead of income supports and unemployment payments that might encourage people to seek work in other industries?


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## Matus

Two things …

1) @tcmx3 - you don’t get along with Dave’s style and opinions. We got that. But you either find a way to express your disagreement without attacking him, or you find yourself a different playground. Just because he wastes his free time on cleaning up mess around here does not mean he is not entitled to have opinion like everyone else.

2) I seemed to have read “bla bla bla Democrats bla bla bla Republicans bla bla bla”. Don’t make me see that again please. Whoever that was.


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## MarcelNL

Angie said:


> But I have found that numbers/statistics can prove anything. It's just how you word the question to get the answers you are wanting.




The good part of Health Authority policies across the globe is that exactly this potential is pretty darn well made impossible after decades of (often self inflicted) mistrust of big pharma ;-)


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## Barmoley

tcmx3 said:


> there is a country wide shortage of employees for jobs that are exempt from minimum wage laws, and the ones at minimum wage arent doing that much better. especially with Amazon paying 15/hr in most of these markets. wouldnt it be at least as likely that that is the explanation for what you're seeing?
> 
> you say it's "due" to the mandates but out of curiosity how are you establishing it is the mandates causing the shortage and not too many alternative job options, expanded unemployment benefits (though there's a TON of evidence now those did not depress the supply of workers), etc?
> 
> btw as additional counter-evidence, I live in a state where the state legislature leans HARD the other direction and pre-empts nearly all local laws and we have the exact same problems. what my area and yours share in common is that there is now significant upward wage pressure and people simply do not have to agree to work for so little anymore.


I am surprised you would bring up unemployment benefits, that is something someone who you think I am would say

My sample is tiny and not scientific, but the reason I say it is due to mandates is because I talked to the Starbucks manager and he told me that a bunch of people quit as soon as mandate came out and they made vaccination a requirement for employment. They also can't find new vaccinated workers. They pay about $20-$22 an hour and still can't find workers. Gymnastics gyms are owned by friends and situation is the same they pay $18-$25 an hour and can't find people. We are not strictly talking about minimum wage which is $15 around here.

Again I don't claim that mandates are a single reason for country wide worker shortage, but it would be incorrect to claim that people are not leaving their jobs due to them. They do around here and I suspect in other places as well.


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## tcmx3

Barmoley said:


> I am surprised you would bring up unemployment benefits, that is something someone who you think I am would say
> 
> My sample is tiny and not scientific, but the reason I say it is due to mandates is because I talked to the Starbucks manager and he told me that a bunch of people quit as soon as mandate came out and they made vaccination a requirement for employment. They also can't find new vaccinated workers. They pay about $20-$22 an hour and still can't find workers. Gymnastics gyms are owned by friends and situation is the same they pay $18-$25 an hour and can't find people. We are not strictly talking about minimum wage which is $15 around here.
> 
> Again I don't claim that mandates are a single reason for country wide worker shortage, but it would be incorrect to claim that people are not leaving their jobs due to them. They do around her and I suspect in other places as well.



I brought up unemployment benefits because that is something people have been positing. Besides labor economists have had open questions about it since well before I went to school. 

Also I want to be clear here Im more questioning how the direct causal link. Im not saying it's not, or that it is, contributing. I'm just pointing out that it's not so simple to directly link the two.

WRT the starbucks manager, well, that is an interesting anecdote but Ive not heard much empirical evidence going around about mandates either way, and Im still at least vaguely plugged into that conversation.

I just am skeptical, that's all. Note: skeptical here means skeptical, not that I have made up my mind. I would actually expect mandates to slightly depress employment rates, but to what effect, well my first guess would be minimal but that's not really the point.


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## Barmoley

I don’t have proof that would satisfy scientific rigor and all my examples are anecdotal, I thought I made that clear. I am not saying mandates are a sole reason for the situation we are in now. The labor market was depressed already and was made tougher by extra requirements. When people say they quit due to the vaccine requirement, you could choose to believe them or you could pontificate that the reason is false and the real reason is something else. Similar phenomena happened when people were getting $600 a week in addition to unemployment for 6 month last year. There were people who quit due to this because they were making more on the unemployment than working, yet there were people claiming this is not happening. Clearly neither are full explanations for the condition of the labor market as it is a very complex system, but at least on the local level it seems that these events contributed to the situation. The real question is how many people quit due to mandates and for how long. If the numbers are low enough then it doesn’t matter for the economy as a whole.


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## tcmx3

Barmoley said:


> I don’t have proof that would satisfy scientific rigor and all my examples are anecdotal, I thought I made that clear. I am not saying mandates are a sole reason for the situation we are in now. The labor market was depressed already and was made tougher by extra requirements. *When people say they quit due to the vaccine requirement, you could choose to believe them or you could pontificate that the reason is false and the real reason is something else. Similar phenomena happened when people were getting $600 a week in addition to unemployment for 6 month last year. There were people who quit due to this because they were making more on the unemployment than working, yet there were people claiming this is not happening. Clearly neither are full explanations for the condition of the labor market as it is a very complex system, but at least on the local level it seems that these events contributed to the situation.* The real question is how many people quit due to mandates and for how long. If the numbers are low enough then it doesn’t matter for the economy as a whole.



this is an excellent case of where anecdotes dont seem to agree with the evidence though. e.g. this research carried out by several of the best econ departments in the world:


https://files.michaelstepner.com/pandemicUIexpiration-paper.pdf



the current understanding is that unemployment insurance did not really impact anything except where people were working (which was in higher wage jobs). so when you posit it as a battle between what people say, and what the evidence is, well it's not really "pontification", it's just much more likely to be the truth that the people who were saying it was due to the insurance were simply incorrect.

wrt some people quitting due to mandates, I mean I do agree that there are going to be at least some. like you said is it enough to matter? I am, again, skeptical, but in the true sense of the word. 

thank you for explaining where you're coming from though.


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## M1k3

Vaccine mandates aren't the cause of labor shortages in the food industry. Before any vaccine mandates were even being thought of the shortage was there. The mandate might affect some places and harder in other some areas versus others. It'll be an additional thing, probably minor in the overall picture, to cause the labor shortage.

Now backing out of this conversation while I have some hair left.


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## Bodine

Jeeze yall, this thing has to run through the population. From what I have read, survival rate is 98% plus. Among young folks 99.+%. What is the freakin big deal. This is not a life threatening illness, unless you have pre conditions. 
Quit being scared and live your lives. I am 69.5 years old, makes me at risk I guess, but I refuse to live my life in fear. Lets face it head on, not like a bunch of pansies.


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## KJDedge

Look at the numbers now….how’s that Sweden doing vs Norway now?…maybe the Swedes got it right …
not to mention Finland and Denmark


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## daveb

M1k3 said:


> Vaccine mandates aren't the cause of labor shortages in the food industry.



I'll concur that the mandates will have a minor effect on the food industry as a whole, but my personal concern is the food service component of the Healthcare industry.

Dining services has been and will continue to follow the lead of industry. Some have mandated that all new employees must be vaxed but existing can continue to test. Others (including mine) have mandated that all employees, admin, clinical and support be vaxed with no testing option. Of three facilities I currently work with just over half of the dining staff (and even more of the housekeeping staff) will be discharged next month.

These are corporate mandates being done in anticipation of legal ones. There is no immediate crisis. My labor difficulties are about to blow up because of politicians showing who has the biggest dick.


----------



## gregfisk

Bodine said:


> Jeeze yall, this thing has to run through the population. From what I have read, survival rate is 98% plus. Among young folks 99.+%. What is the freakin big deal. This is not a life threatening illness, unless you have pre conditions.
> Quit being scared and live your lives. I am 69.5 years old, makes me at risk I guess, but I refuse to live my life in fear. Lets face it head on, not like a bunch of pansies.



yourstatement is 100% incorrect. I personally know 2 people who were avid bike riders, hikers and kept in really great shape overall. They were both in there mid fifties, not overweight and ate healthy. They were also anti vaccines and I’ll let you guess their other affiliations. They were a married couple and both caught Covid at the same time. They also both died within weeks of contracting the virus. I know several people who have gotten Covid and have either gotten extremely ill or have almost died from it. Some were out of shape and over weight and some were just normal people without any real issues. The truth is you just don’t know how this virus is going to effect you or the people who you care about. It’s completely irresponsible to assume that if you’re young and healthy it won’t effect you. And several of the people I know who got the virus and didn’t end up in the hospital, still have all kinds of long term issues because of it. Lack of smell and taste, joint pain, heart issues and headaches that they never had before. I personally don’t want to get the virus even though I’m triple vaccinated and in pretty good shape. Some day science will figure out why certain healthy people are fine with getting Covid and other healthy people die from it. Until then the smart thing to do is be safe and hope you’re one of the lucky ones. Your cavalier attitude is going to get you or someone else extremely ill or killed.


----------



## mpier

gregfisk said:


> yourstatement is 100% incorrect. I personally know 2 people who were avid bike riders, hikers and kept in really great shape overall. They were both in there mid fifties, not overweight and ate healthy. They were also anti vaccines and I’ll let you guess their other affiliations. They were a married couple and both caught Covid at the same time. They also both died within weeks of contracting the virus. I know several people who have gotten Covid and have either gotten extremely ill or have almost died from it. Some were out of shape and over weight and some were just normal people without any real issues. The truth is you just don’t know how this virus is going to effect you or the people who you care about. It’s completely irresponsible to assume that if you’re young and healthy it won’t effect you. And several of the people I know who got the virus and didn’t end up in the hospital, still have all kinds of long term issues because of it. Lack of smell and taste, joint pain, heart issues and headaches that they never had before. I personally don’t want to get the virus even though I’m triple vaccinated and in pretty good shape. Some day science will figure out why certain healthy people are fine with getting Covid and other healthy people die from it. Until then the smart thing to do is be safe and hope you’re one of the lucky ones. Your cavalier attitude is going to get you or someone else extremely ill or killed.


Yes this may be true but can’t that be said for any health problem, the active runner that drops dead from a hart attack, the non smoker that gets lung cancer, the healthy active person who dies from the common cold or flu. I am not a anti-vaccination person but I am old enough to be able to understand and know that there is a middle ground and that the absolute truth to all that you may think you know, read or heard lies somewhere in the middle of all the B.S.


----------



## Luftmensch

@daveb,

I am sorry for all the admin. I am sure compiling all those lists is a thankless task.



daveb said:


> And yes, I'm dusting off resume.



Forgive me... I am not trying to be obtuse. I don't understand the sequence of events here? Are you suggesting your company might lose a critical mass of employees due to the mandates... and might cease trading or simply dump your section?

If this is the case, I hope management have some transition strategy. I also sincerely hope you do not lose your job. That is always stressful and anxious making!


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## daveb

Not at all. They (my company) and the healthcare industry at large will lose a lot of employees due to the self imposed mandates with no viable plan to recruit replacements. A part of my job entails covering for employees that miss a shift for one reason or another. Currently that means I cover a shift a couple times a week. With the corp mandate I expect to cover many more shifts and frankly that's a younger mans game. I've been a cook. I don't mind being a cook. But at this stage of my life I'm a better manager than a cook.


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## Luftmensch

daveb said:


> A part of my job entails covering for employees that miss a shift for one reason or another. Currently that means I cover a shift a couple times a week. With the corp mandate I expect to cover many more shifts and frankly that's a younger mans game. I've been a cook. I don't mind being a cook. But at this stage of my life I'm a better manager than a cook.



As we say: "fair cop" (fair point, no disagreements).

If they are going to be short on staff, you may have _more_ job security? Although I understand job security and enjoying the work are two entirely separate things!!

It sounds like you have a good history with the company. If you broadly enjoy the job are on good terms with the managers, I am sure they would be understanding and amenable to negotiating a maximum number of cover shifts per week?

If you get the sense they are desperate to retain staff and you are not enjoying the work anymore... you could try testing their limits and ask for a raise while you look for other work??


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## daveb

Thanks. I'll get something sorted out. Not quite ready to retire again.

There's a saying in the senior living industry - I'm going to work here until I live here...


----------



## mpier

Luftmensch said:


> As we say: "fair cop" (fair point, no disagreements).
> 
> If they are going to be short on staff, you may have _more_ job security? Although I understand job security and enjoying the work are two entirely separate things!!
> 
> It sounds like you have a good history with the company. If you broadly enjoy the job are on good terms with the managers, I am sure they would be understanding and amenable to negotiating a maximum number of cover shifts per week?
> 
> If you get the sense they are desperate to retain staff and you are not enjoying the work anymore... you could try testing their limits and ask for a raise while you look for other work??


There comes a point in any persons life where monetary compensation does not make up for the joy of living a life without such pressure and longer hours doesn’t make up for more compensation. I know from my career that quality of life became more important than more money and longer hours


----------



## ian

Bodine said:


> Jeeze yall, this thing has to run through the population. From what I have read, survival rate is 98% plus. Among young folks 99.+%. What is the freakin big deal. This is not a life threatening illness, unless you have pre conditions.
> Quit being scared and live your lives. I am 69.5 years old, makes me at risk I guess, but I refuse to live my life in fear. Lets face it head on, not like a bunch of pansies.





gregfisk said:


> yourstatement is 100% incorrect. I personally know 2 people who were avid bike riders, hikers and kept in really great shape overall. They were both in there mid fifties, not overweight and ate healthy. They were also anti vaccines and I’ll let you guess their other affiliations. They were a married couple and both caught Covid at the same time. They also both died within weeks of contracting the virus. I know several people who have gotten Covid and have either gotten extremely ill or have almost died from it. Some were out of shape and over weight and some were just normal people without any real issues. The truth is you just don’t know how this virus is going to effect you or the people who you care about. It’s completely irresponsible to assume that if you’re young and healthy it won’t effect you. And several of the people I know who got the virus and didn’t end up in the hospital, still have all kinds of long term issues because of it. Lack of smell and taste, joint pain, heart issues and headaches that they never had before. I personally don’t want to get the virus even though I’m triple vaccinated and in pretty good shape. Some day science will figure out why certain healthy people are fine with getting Covid and other healthy people die from it. Until then the smart thing to do is be safe and hope you’re one of the lucky ones. Your cavalier attitude is going to get you or someone else extremely ill or killed.



One should also bear in mind that 1.8% (or whatever the actually fatality rate is) is still a lot of people. I guess the actual chance of dying is probably less than (confirmed deaths / confirmed cases) due to underreporting of cases, but it still adds up to a lot of people; and this doesn't even include the tons of people who get seriously ill. Also, just letting it run rampant is going to inflate those numbers, because a main point of these mitigation measures is to slow down the spread enough that hospitals aren't overwhelmed with patients, etc.... It's not like everything would just go back to normal if everyone ignored the virus. That said, the number of deaths you think warrants a given level of response is certainly a value judgement, so I can't really argue with that. (I do agree with greg that it can certainly be life threatening and life altering even without preconditions, though.)


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## tcmx3

when I first read that post I had to check if I was on the right page. I thought we finished litigating this line over a year ago.

anyway I have the same take as I had last year; if you genuinely believe that more folks should die than the absolute smallest number we can manage, then you should be willing to lead the way to the afterlife. in my opinion, you cannot ask others to put their lives on the line and not be willing to accept the worst of the consequences yourself, that would just be unfair.

for those unafraid and who appreciate when men were men, there's a ton of historical precedent so I dont think it's unreasonable to suggest.


----------



## Luftmensch

mpier said:


> There comes a point in any persons life where monetary compensation does not make up for the joy of living a life without such pressure and longer hours doesn’t make up for more compensation.



100% agree! This is why my first suggestion would be to negotiate with management to try and limit the taxing parts of the job (covering kitchen shifts).

I know a few people who are at the end of their careers. At this point in their life they are definitely _not_ working for the joy. They dont want long hours and pressure. They are working towards a comfortable retirement. A recurring theme is that job mobility in this age group is difficult. Younger employees are cheaper. Many were able to renegotiate hours worked or the nature of their roll. 

While money is not everything... another way to look at it... if there is opportunity to negotiating income upwards (e.g. cover shifts at time and a half pay - to cover for their lack of capacity), at least you _might_ purchase yourself some extra comfort in retirement... or maybe you can bring forward retirement by a few months.


----------



## juice

gregfisk said:


> yourstatement is 100% incorrect.


Yeah, but pretendland is nicer than reality, quite often. Anyone ignoring long COVID (i.e. anyone who simply quotes simple mortality rates) i.e. either being deliberately misleading or isn't bright enough to actually know even the basics of the situation.


----------



## Michi

KJDedge said:


> Look at the numbers now….how’s that Sweden doing vs Norway now?


Sweden: 116,000 cases per million population, 1,480 deaths per million population
Norway: 45,000 cases per million population, 183 deaths per million population

Norway is currently going through wave #5 with lots of new cases. Sweden is fairly stable, no 5th wave so far. Vaccination rates are similar: both at 69% fully vaccinated. Norway with 7.9% partly vaccinated, Sweden with 2.9%.


----------



## Luftmensch

Aussies (@Michi, @Nemo, @juice), you might enjoy this...

An animation of Covid spread in the past two years:









The pandemic in 60 seconds: animated maps show how Covid-19 spread across NSW and Victoria


Using an experimental mapping method, the outbreak of Covid-19 across the two states can be plotted from the start of the pandemic




www.theguardian.com





It is interesting seeing transmission from overseas cases (blue) dominating in NSW in the first half of 2021 before Delta bursts onto the scene in July. Transmission then switches to local (red).

Similar in VIC... except with a heavy local transmission wave during last year's winter wave.


----------



## juice

Luftmensch said:


> An animation of Covid spread in the past two years:


Pretty cool


----------



## Jovidah

M1k3 said:


> Vaccine mandates aren't the cause of labor shortages in the food industry. Before any vaccine mandates were even being thought of the shortage was there. The mandate might affect some places and harder in other some areas versus others. It'll be an additional thing, probably minor in the overall picture, to cause the labor shortage.
> 
> Now backing out of this conversation while I have some hair left.


Yeah... not to take anything away from Dave's experience because no doubt this is adding to it, but this was already a problem here long before vaccine adoption and talk of mandates was a thing. When things started going into lockdown here a lot of food establishments had to let at least part of their employees go. A lot of those people found found jobs in different sectors and apparently quite a few of them didn't mind the switch. When things started opening up again apparently most restaurants and such had massive problems getting personel because a lot of people simply didn't feel like coming back.


----------



## tcmx3

Jovidah said:


> Yeah... not to take anything away from Dave's experience because no doubt this is adding to it, but this was already a problem here long before vaccine adoption and talk of mandates was a thing. When things started going into lockdown here a lot of food establishments had to let at least part of their employees go. A lot of those people found found jobs in different sectors and apparently quite a few of them didn't mind the switch. When things started opening up again apparently most restaurants and such had massive problems getting personel because a lot of people simply didn't feel like coming back.



maybe they should just pay competitive wages and benefits and all that. 

if the food service industry can only exist by literally exploiting people en masse, I dont think it deserves to continue as is. really sad that it took COVID to show people that though & I still see too few interviews with people who left explaining how they can simply do better by going down the street.


----------



## Jovidah

Bodine said:


> Jeeze yall, this thing has to run through the population. From what I have read, survival rate is 98% plus. Among young folks 99.+%. What is the freakin big deal. This is not a life threatening illness, unless you have pre conditions.
> Quit being scared and live your lives. I am 69.5 years old, makes me at risk I guess, but I refuse to live my life in fear. Lets face it head on, not like a bunch of pansies.


Others already piled on this so not a whole lot to add... but... This feels like a statement from a year ago. 

I could understand this kind of attitude about something like terrorism that really only kills a trivial amount of people on a whole population... but even just 1-2% on a population of 300 million people in the US is still several _million_ dead people. And I'm not sure you realize how many people are categorized as having 'pre-conditions'; with the US's weight and cardiovascular disease problems that's likely to be >50% of the population.
Another issue is that so far in most modern countries we've managed to keep lethality in check because we 'managed' the disease; infections largely remained within the capacity of health systems to treat. When health systems get overwhelmed the situation changes for the worse - even for people who need a hospital bed for something that isn't COVID related. 

I agree that there's no point in being scared. But there's a difference between being scared and taking something serious. I'm not scared when I get in a car nor do I worry about getting into an accident, yet I still wear a seatbelt. I was never particularly worried about hitting my head when skiing or mountaineering, yet I still wore a helmet. Managing risks doesn't mean you're scared or panicking.
This epidemic never was an existential risk for humanity - even if it had 10x the lethality it still wouldn't be. But that doesn't mean it cannot have significant societal and economical effects. Part of the problem (and what most of the discussion is about) is that these continue to persist... even though we have tools to mitigate the problem (vaccines).


----------



## juice

Jovidah said:


> And I'm not sure you realize how many people are categorized as having 'pre-conditions'; with the US's weight and cardiovascular disease problems that's likely to be >50% of the population.


Last figures I saw showed that 88 per cent of the US population had some version of metabolic syndrome or other similar issues, meaning that even the (so-called) "young and fit" often were not, it just wasn't immediately obvious that they had "underlying health issues."


----------



## gregfisk

juice said:


> Last figures I saw showed that 88 per cent of the US population had some version of metabolic syndrome or other similar issues, meaning that even the (so-called) "young and fit" often were not, it just wasn't immediately obvious that they had "underlying health issues."



There are a lot of overweight people in the US , especially in the South. When I went to Australia a decade or so ago I was very impressed by how good of shape most people were in. The school kids getting on the bus wearing their uniforms was very different than what I saw/see here, especially now. My wife and daughter and I have always been very active, skiing, hiking and spending time outdoors. But in many parts of the US that just isn’t the case. When we were in Brighten Beach we would joke that that’s were all the beautiful people were.


----------



## Jovidah

tcmx3 said:


> maybe they should just pay competitive wages and benefits and all that.
> 
> if the food service industry can only exist by literally exploiting people en masse, I dont think it deserves to continue as is. really sad that it took COVID to show people that though & I still see too few interviews with people who left explaining how they can simply do better by going down the street.


Yeah I don't blame people for moving on; over here it's usually underpaid for crap hours as well. Retail has a similar problem. That being said I'm not sure it's that simple; paying more to employees will usually mean raising prices which risks pricing oneself out of the market. The only 'fix' to that would be raising the minimum wage universally, but that'd be rather controversial (not just politically).
I never managed a restaurant so I have no clue what the bottom line looks like, but considering how many regularly go out of business even in normal times it doesn't sound like 'just pay more' is all that simple.


----------



## tcmx3

Jovidah said:


> Yeah I don't blame people for moving on; over here it's usually underpaid for crap hours as well. Retail has a similar problem. That being said I'm not sure it's that simple; paying more to employees will usually mean raising prices which risks pricing oneself out of the market. The only 'fix' to that would be raising the minimum wage universally, but that'd be rather controversial (not just politically).
> I never managed a restaurant so I have no clue what the bottom line looks like, but considering how many regularly go out of business even in normal times it doesn't sound like 'just pay more' is all that simple.



I mean of course it's not that simple.

On the other hand, if you work a full time job, you deserve a living wage. Im not personally so committed to the continued existence of the American restaurant experience as it currently exists that I think it should get to supercede human decency and if COVID is gonna hammer that nail into the coffin well Im not sure Im so sad about it.


----------



## juice

gregfisk said:


> When I went to Australia a decade or so ago I was very impressed by how good of shape most people were in. The school kids getting on the bus wearing their uniforms was very different than what I saw/see here, especially now.


We're catching you guys very rapidly, I fear.


----------



## MarcelNL

juice said:


> We're catching you guys very rapidly, I fear.


I was going to say, a decade is a long period, just see some news footage/documentary in the street going back to the seventies and then watch something from the eighties...


----------



## sansho

Bodine said:


> Jeeze yall, this thing has to run through the population. From what I have read, survival rate is 98% plus. Among young folks 99.+%. What is the freakin big deal. This is not a life threatening illness, unless you have pre conditions.
> Quit being scared and live your lives. I am 69.5 years old, makes me at risk I guess, but I refuse to live my life in fear. Lets face it head on, not like a bunch of pansies.



i can't speak for the population in general. i can only speak for myself. and maybe make some guesses about people here.

maybe i'm too optimistic, but i'm basically not worried at all about dying from covid. i'm not worried about dying in a car crash either.

however, it seems pretty easy to get covid and get some kind of complication. consider even the most benign complication: viral anosmia.

i love food and drink. i'm guessing basically every user on this forum does, too.

i've experienced viral anosmia once before from some upper respiratory infection. i remember when the infection moved up into my nasal tissue, and i got congested. it wasn't like normal congestion. my sense of smell was totally gone. it stayed like that for over a week after the other symptoms resolved. it slowly came back after that, but for like a year, i was always wondering if i could smell things as well as i could before. it was distressing tbh. i think it's back to normal now, but i still wonder if it's 100%.

so now that there's a hot new highly contagious virus going around known to frequently cause severe respiratory infection leading to anosmia (and worse)... uh...

i personally don't need any more reason than that to keep up with the covid vaccines. lol


----------



## Keith Sinclair

What do you mean by American Restaurant Experience? We have good ethnic places here.

For many people in USA & other countries too fast food is eating out experience. All that deep fried stuff puts on the weight.


----------



## gregfisk

juice said:


> We're catching you guys very rapidly, I fear.



When we were there some of the American fast food restaurants were just starting to move in. I’ve read since that the population has started to gain weight. It really is a legal crime in my opinion. It was also when people were planting grapes and wine was taking off in the Victoria region. While the wine from there being shipped to the US was pretty bad and pretty sweet, we were buying really good wine at the small grocery store in Brighton. And since our dollar was really strong at the time we were loving the price of that great wine. I loved walking down the street there were you could walk from the bakery to the butcher to the grocery store all on the same block. Something that was long gone by the time I was growing up here, at least when where I grew up.


----------



## KingShapton

Bodine said:


> Jeeze yall, this thing has to run through the population. From what I have read, survival rate is 98% plus. Among young folks 99.+%. What is the freakin big deal. This is not a life threatening illness, unless you have pre conditions.
> Quit being scared and live your lives. I am 69.5 years old, makes me at risk I guess, but I refuse to live my life in fear. Lets face it head on, not like a bunch of pansies.


For me there is a big difference between "living a life in fear" and "behaving carefully and appropriately in life due to the circumstances caused by Covid".

The survival rate may be as high as you say, but even 0.5% to 2% of the population still has a lot of Covid-related deaths. Deaths that would not have happened without Covid.

From my point of view, every single death caused by Covid is one too many. And a death that could have been avoided.

From your point of view, there may be a tiny number of people, but each and every one of these people had a right to their life. Each and every one of these people meant something to another person, as a relative, as a child, as a parent, as a love, as a friend. Each and every one of these deceased people is an unnecessary and tragic loss!

I can only speak for myself, but I don't want to live with the knowledge that another person has found an unnecessary and premature death due to my behavior and that I am partly responsible for it. So I act accordingly, it's not just about my life and my health, but about the life and health of all people with whom I come in contact.

Covid may not be life threatening for everyone, but every life is valuable. And the behavior of each and every one of us has a decisive influence on the life and death of some people.

And apart from the deaths, the consequences of Long-Covid can also be serious, these consequences also occur with harmless disease processes, regardless of age or state of health. I don’t want these consequences to anyone and I don’t want to be responsible for that another person is affected by my behavior!


----------



## MarcelNL

Also; it's not the final mortality that is causing the major trouble in our hospitals, it's Covid's unique pattern of morbidity that is the key issue....Our health care systems have generally become pretty good at keeping patients alive, yet that comes at a high cost and the specialty resources needed to keep Covid patients alive are scarce and actually right now they are more scarce than ever due to the earlier Covid waves. Care is so scarce that Covid is now scavenging resources intended for 'regular' care, meaning patients with other diseases suffer longer or more or do not get any care to begin with.

It is the ICU and hospital care congestion causing lockdowns all over Europe, not the mortality...


----------



## Jovidah

MarcelNL said:


> Also; it's not the final mortality that is causing the major trouble in our hospitals, it's Covid's unique pattern of morbidity that is the key issue....Our health care systems have generally become pretty good at keeping patients alive, yet that comes at a high cost and the specialty resources needed to keep Covid patients alive are scarce and actually right now they are more scarce than ever due to the earlier Covid waves. Care is so scarce that Covid is now scavenging resources intended for 'regular' care, meaning patients with other diseases suffer longer or more or do not get any care to begin with.
> 
> It is the ICU and hospital care congestion causing lockdowns all over Europe, not the mortality...


Honestly at this point I think it's fair to start a process to de-prioritize COVID-affected patients who are willingly unvaccinated from medical care if capacity becomes a problem. I say willingly, because of course there's a group with immune disorders etc who have no choice in the matter.
But I think it's unfair to keep cancelling and postponing 'regular care' for vaccinated people. That _will_ result in significant long term health effects and potentially death for at least some of those people simply because they're not getting their medical care in time. All because we're dealing with a big surge again that's significantly larger than it should be... 

If people want to retain their freedom of choice and ignore what medical science has to offer, fine, but then you have to be consistent about it. Maybe that pushes them over the edge to finally get vaccinated, but I'm unwilling to see that stubbornness hurt the health of other people who aren't undermining public health with their 'choices'.


----------



## MarcelNL

@Jovidah 

Understand what you are saying, and I cannot say I disagree with it...the problem is that although there are people out there walking around with things like a 'do not resuscitate/intubate' declaration but I've not heard anyone doing something similar around Covid. Who else is going to make that decision? Politicians? Medical staff?
Triage during a code black will not likely de-prioritize non vaxxers over others...


----------



## Luftmensch

tcmx3 said:


> the continued existence of the American restaurant experience





Keith Sinclair said:


> What do you mean by American Restaurant Experience?



@Keith Sinclair, the comment was about wage conditions - not a judgement on diversity or quality.

I guess the American hospitality system is well known for subsidising low-paid labour through quasi-mandatory tipping. There also is wage pressure downwards through the extensive use of illegal/undocumented immigrant labour.

As a consumer/diner, is preserving _this_ part of the 'American restaurant experience' critical? I dont think so... A living minimum wage sounds more humane to me. You could then demote tipping to an optional, genuine expression of gratitude for exceptional quality and service.


An increasing part of the food experience in many parts of the world is the gig economy. I think the working conditions of the "independent contractors" are pretty dismal. We can do better. It might be even worse for gig economy workers in places like Australia where there is no culture of default tipping. I dont know how it is handled in America. I was staunchly against it before covid... and for the most part I still am. However there is a tiny bit of conflict in me as I recognise the gig economy allowed many restaurants to stay solvent during lockdown.


----------



## Jovidah

MarcelNL said:


> @Jovidah
> 
> Understand what you are saying, and I cannot say I disagree with it...the problem is that although there are people out there walking around with things like a 'do not resuscitate/intubate' declaration but I've not heard anyone doing something similar around Covid. Who else is going to make that decision? Politicians? Medical staff?
> Triage during a code black will not likely de-prioritize non vaxxers over others...


It'd have to be a political debate. From what I've seen the 'code black' triage rules are basically still the same as they were earlier in the epidemic, so the whole vaccine status doesn't enter the debate.
Changing them would probably be a touchy subject no one wants to burn their fingers on. 

The problem is, by keeping those rules in place you're essentially killing and hurting at least some non-COVID / vaccinated patients because their health care gets postponed or deprioritized. It's just less visible, but this was already a thing in earlier waves and would no doubt be the result again when a lot of the 'lower priority care' gets postponed again.


----------



## Luftmensch

B.1.1.529 doesnt look good...


----------



## KingShapton

Luftmensch said:


> B.1.1.529 doesnt look good...


Based on the sparse information I've read, this variant could be the dreaded "super mutant". In that case, the situation gets really ****** serious.

But as long as there is so little information available, I still hope that these are harmless mutations.


----------



## Barmoley

Yeah, just read about it. Looks like we will be dealing with this thing for a very long time.


----------



## KingShapton

Unfortunately yes.


----------



## MarcelNL

yeah...more contagious is one thing...but if we now hot a variant that (partially) evades vaccines there is major trouble ahead...


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Delta spread easy caused our second round of restrictions. Masks are still worn indoors public 
places except when eating or drinking.

My nephew commented how here was more strict with rules than mainland. They didn't mind just go with the flow. 

Things are opening up football games, Macy's Thanksgiving parade. Hardly see any mask at games, but so far they haven't been super spreader events. If new strains like B.1.1. 529 are resistant to vaccines that could change. 

Wearing mask, using disinfecting, washing hands are habits we as seniors agreed to continue. We used to get colds from the other because we are so close. Since covid nothing.

Here is more like the East where wearing mask is seen as normal. Probably because of our large Asian population.


----------



## icanhaschzbrgr

I wish those crappy Covid species were named differently. Like "grim dоuchebag" instead of Delta. And the new one is Omicron. It needs a crappy name. Greek alphabet doesn't deserve to be associated with this shiiiit


----------



## daveb

icanhaschzbrgr said:


> I wish those crappy Covid species were named differently....



I'm kinda partial to Wuhan 6...


----------



## MarcelNL

I personally don't give a toss what name this bug gets..I just want them GONE!

We're going into the next sortofkindof lockdown by Sunday....


----------



## M1k3

daveb said:


> I'm kinda partial to Wuhan 6...


Did they open for the MC5 back in the day?


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Bat barrage  bug.


----------



## ian

F**k this


----------



## chefwp

I have a sinking feeling that with the girls back in school omicron will be the variant that gets past our precautions. I hope the preliminary reports that symptoms are mild, with a shortened time, and not as deadly is true. I also hope the girls stay in school despite the spread of this new virus.

The good news is my youngest got her 'part II' of the vaccine last Friday, so she should be on her way to being the last one of us that is up-to-date as you can be with all that.

Stay fly people, and do what you gotta do <take yo vitamin D!>.


----------



## chefwp

chefwp said:


> I also hope the girls stay in school despite the spread of this new virus.


I should also add regarding this: If the experts and school boards that stay on top of this siht decide that for the community's safety we need to return to cyber learning, I will be frustrated and disappointed to the nth degree; I will also accept their decision without going off the rails and blaming said people.


----------



## Michi

Interesting animated graph that shows death rate based on vaccine status. Worth the 30 seconds it takes to watch.



You need to click on the link in the caption to see the full graph. When playing it embedded, the bottom part gets truncated.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Thanks those late summer months when had huge spike were Delta. Looks like Moderna vaccine faired well.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

chefwp said:


> I should also add regarding this: If the experts and school boards that stay on top of this siht decide that for the community's safety we need to return to cyber learning, I will be frustrated and disappointed to the nth degree; I will also accept their decision without going off the rails and blaming said people.


 
It is tough on parents and kids. Cyber learning didn't fair well here my niece was a teacher & cyber learning was very effective with her kids, but that's not the norm.


----------



## EricEricEric

If the vaccines are working properly we should be seeing a lower number of deaths this year, but instead it’s been higher than the previous year when we had no vaccine and no therapies

I think the other issue is how many times and how often the vaccine is required in order to have any effectiveness. Some countries are on to number 4 to 5 now

I’ve been reading from the beginning that countries in Africa with zero to little vaccinations are out performing countries with the highest vaccination rates

We’re starting to see this same issue in the southeast of the United States with the least amount of use of mask isolation and vaccination, They are reporting less infections and less deaths

Another issue is that the vaccinations do not prevent the spread of Covid, even if you have the vaccination multiple times you can just as readily spread the virus


----------



## gregfisk

Here is a website Eric three names that gives current data sets for what you are talking about. It’s pretty clear to me that your assumptions are incorrect. I’ll just leave this here for you to ponder.








How do death rates from COVID-19 differ between people who are vaccinated and those who are not?


To understand how the pandemic is evolving, it’s crucial to know how death rates from COVID-19 are affected by vaccination status.




ourworldindata.org


----------



## riba

EricEricEric said:


> If the vaccines are working properly we should be seeing a lower number of deaths this year, but instead it’s been higher than the previous year when we had no vaccine and no therapies



I am wondering who claimed 'If the vaccines are working properly we should be seeing a lower number of deaths this year'

I would rather phrase it along the lines (the lines are a bit blurry, enjoying a lovely wine) 'If the vaccines are working properly we should be seeing a lower ratio of deaths of people vaccinated compared to unvaccinated this year'

(And the hope is we can adjust vaccines when necessary)


----------



## ian

EricEricEric said:


> If the vaccines are working properly we should be seeing a lower number of deaths this year, but instead it’s been higher than the previous year when we had no vaccine and no therapies



This year is different than last year. Different variants, different levels of spread. A direct comparison of death numbers makes no sense. Current death numbers of vaccinated people vs unvaccinated people makes more sense.



EricEricEric said:


> I think the other issue is how many times and how often the vaccine is required in order to have any effectiveness. Some countries are on to number 4 to 5 now



IIRC a couple places were using vaccines that started out with 3 doses? I don't know. I'm also not sure which countries you're referring to here with the 5 doses, and why it matters. Are you saying that it's inconvenient or expensive enough to get multiple doses that it's not worth the decrease in rates of severe illness?



EricEricEric said:


> I’ve been reading from the beginning that countries in Africa with zero to little vaccinations are out performing countries with the highest vaccination rates



I mean, lower vaccination rates are one of like 20 differences between Africa and the US. According to at least one thing I read, many African countries had a very aggressive and early lockdown response. The weather's also different, and people are generally younger in Africa than in the US. (Median age in US = 38, median age in Africa = 20.) The difference in death rates between vaccinated and unvaccinated people in the US is a much more compelling statistic than any comparison between the US and Africa.


----------



## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> Some countries are on to number 4 to 5 now


Which countries? Please quote your sources.


EricEricEric said:


> I’ve been reading from the beginning that countries in Africa with zero to little vaccinations are out performing countries with the highest vaccination rates


Again, which countries, and what sources?


----------



## daddy yo yo

Jovidah said:


> Honestly at this point I think it's fair to start a process to de-prioritize COVID-affected patients who are willingly unvaccinated from medical care if capacity becomes a problem.


And what about smokers? Alcoholics? Motorbike riders? Skiers or downhill bikers? Athletes? Where do you want to start, and where do you stop? They all took their choice willingly…

Current vaccines are the best we currently have. Not more and not less. Only history will tell if whatever we do was the right or wrong choice. I am aware of all this (and others should be too). I am no expert and I have no solution.

I live in Austria/EU. Our politicians and experts will introduce vaccination mandate for everyone above 14 (I believe) by February 1st. I am asking, even if 100% of our own population is fully (whatever that means today) vaccinated, we still have non-Austrian residents, workers and tourists traveling through Austria and coming home from traveling. How much of the world’s population is currently unvaccinated? And we all know already that even a full vaccination doesn’t prevent you from getting or spreading the virus. I know 2 people already who got CoV after the 3rd shot… The rest of the world counts, too, I mean Austria is neither an island nor fully isolated with closed borders!


----------



## Michi

daddy yo yo said:


> And what about smokers? Alcoholics? Motorbike riders? Skiers or downhill bikers? Athletes? Where do you want to start, and where do you stop? They all took their choice willingly…


True. But their numbers are a drop in the ocean compared to Covid cases that end up in hospitals. Motorbike riders don't overwhelm the public hospital system. Covid cases do.


----------



## daddy yo yo

Michi said:


> True. But their numbers are a drop in the ocean compared to Covid cases that end up in hospitals. Motorbike riders don't overwhelm the public hospital system. Covid cases do.


As I said, I live in Austria/EU. We are a nation of skiers. We are in lockdown number, uhm, I lost count. Our government decided that even in lockdown, it’s fine to go skiing as long as you’re vaccinated or have recovered from CoV. You really have to explain to me how you can keep ski lifts open when you close a whole country down because of CoV. If you believe that’s only a few I recommend to google numbers of daily hospital admissions due to skiing accidents (I did and I tell you, you‘d be surprised). The stupidity of mankind is unrivaled and unprecedented. And many of us believe we‘re God‘s (or whoever) greatest Creation.

I did not and do not want to attack motorbike riders (or any other group of people I have or have not mentioned), but in times when every single (!) bed in intensive care matters, every single person who willingly puts at risk his own life and/or the lives of others is equal - equally good or bad.


----------



## inferno

inferno said:


> the way i see it. everybody will get corona sooner or later. vaxxed or not. i said it 2 years ago.
> and i'm saying it again.
> 
> herd immunity will probably never come.
> 
> viruses mutate, thats how they evolve.* and a few major mutations down the line the vaccines will not work at all.*






CA_cook said:


> @inferno I respect your opinion, but your post if full of false information. You say this is not a normal virus, this is false. There are known viruses that are more transmissible or more deadly than covid, so it’s characteristics are not something unique on their own.
> 
> *There is a solid scientific reason for why the mRNA vaccines are effective against variants. These vaccines target the pre-fusion conformation of the spike protein, which targets the ACE2 receptor on the human cells. As long as the ACE2 recepor does not mutate in humans (and it does not), the chances of the virus evading the vaccine are quite small* (if virus mutates in a way that doee not recognize the antibody, it wont recognize ACE2 receptor either and will become effectively harmless).
> 
> -snip-
> 
> You say that in the long run it is not doing to do anything. Neither you nor I have a crystal ball,





so you say... how do you feel about that statement now? now when we have the omicron variant which i saw in my magical crystal ball.

to be honest i never had a crystal ball. i just read MEDICINE when i was 15-16 years old! and this is about the most basic ****ing **** there is those books!!! *how this works has been knows for about 100 years now*. just so you know!

i guess that could be interpreted as some crystal ball mojo for r3tarded people but i dont know to be honest. if thats fair.

so lets sum it up: 120 people in an oslo restaurant gets infceted.* ALL of them are double vaxxed*. AND tested before they go to the "julebord" christmas dinner.

here is the article but it has been updated to 120 now. translate with google translate.








Omikron-smitte i Oslo etter julebord


Så langt er én person bekreftet smittet med omikron. Det forventes flere tilfeller, ifølge Oslo kommune. Så mange som 50-60 mennesker kan ha den nye varianten.




www.nrk.no




text of interest:
*– Det er noe vi har sett generelt i det siste. At veldig mange fullvaksinerte blir smittet, og smitter videre, sier medisinskfaglig ansvarlig for smittesporingsteamet i Oslo vest, Jorun Thaulow.*

it says: this is something that we have seen in general lately. that very many people, fully vaccinated, get infected, and spread the disease to others, says the olso vest medical head honcho. Jorun Thaulow.

(i used to live in norway so i know the lingo quite well)

-------------------------------

in denmark we have 1840 infected with omicron. (its in english too!!)


https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-11122021-uy12



and 74% is double vaxxed. 14% unvaxxed. and 9.5% triple vaxxed and 2.2% 1vaxxed.
and this is kinda funny. because there is about 20% unvaxxed in denmark. so now the vaxxed are getting infected MORE than unvaxxed!

*GEE, WHO WOULD HAVE ****ING GUESSED IT COULD TURN OUT LIKE THIS??*

hate to be the one to say "i fukn told you so", but i guess i did actually tell you so. and not a single fukn crystal ball was used in the process.
common sense people... common sense. and as we all know its not that common anymore.

la la laaa,
la la la la laaa


----------



## ian

daddy yo yo said:


> As I said, I live in Austria/EU. We are a nation of skiers. We are in lockdown number, uhm, I lost count. Our government decided that even in lockdown, it’s fine to go skiing as long as you’re vaccinated or have recovered from CoV. You really have to explain to me how you can keep ski lifts open when you close a whole country down because of CoV. If you believe that’s only a few I recommend to google numbers of daily hospital admissions due to skiing accidents (I did and I tell you, you‘d be surprised). The stupidity of mankind is unrivaled and unprecedented. And many of us believe we‘re God‘s (or whoever) greatest Creation.
> 
> I did not and do not want to attack motorbike riders (or any other group of people I have or have not mentioned), but in times when every single (!) bed in intensive care matters, every single person who willingly puts at risk his own life and/or the lives of others is equal - equally good or bad.



This argument seems a little off. It’s not about the number of alcoholics or motorbike riders vs the number of unvaccinated people. It’s that by getting people vaccinated, you can make the world safer for everyone. Part of this is making it less likely for individual people to end up in hospitals because they’re now vaccinated, therefore helping them and freeing up hospital beds, but it’s also about just slowing the spread of the disease. And getting a shot is a really small ask in comparison to “You must now give up drinking” or “You must sell your motorbike”. It’s about the combination of huge societal benefit + small ask. 

The question of why ski resorts are still open is separate from this.


----------



## tcmx3

@inferno before you celebrate you will need to demonstrate that outcomes for vaccinated people are, as a group, the same severity as those for unvaccinated people.

also your interpretation of vaccinated vs unvaccinated rates in Denmark is highly spurious. you are doing simple proportions but in order for that to work even in a frequentist sense again you need to demonstrate a few assumptions hold, the biggest of which is that there isnt significant self-selection bias in who is getting vaccinated and that the subsequent patterns of behavior are identical and I gotta tell you I dont think you're gonna be able to demonstrate that.

if you want to interpret things that way on a forum I cant stop you but if you tried to pass that off on any team of statisticians you'd be laughed out of the room.


----------



## tcmx3

also real talk you are aware that the word "retarded' to refer to someone's mental capacity is extremely offensive right?

since you used a number substitution when you typed it Im going to guess you do...


----------



## Nemo

@inferno , by all means express your opinion. But please keep it friendly. Or at least polite.


----------



## inferno

tcmx3 said:


> @inferno before you celebrate you will need to demonstrate that outcomes for vaccinated people are, as a group, the same severity as those for unvaccinated people.
> 
> also your interpretation of vaccinated vs unvaccinated rates in Denmark is highly spurious. you are doing simple proportions but in order for that to work even in a frequentist sense again you need to demonstrate a few assumptions hold, the biggest of which is that there isnt significant self-selection bias in who is getting vaccinated and that the subsequent patterns of behavior are identical and I gotta tell you I dont think you're gonna be able to demonstrate that.
> 
> if you want to interpret things that way on a forum I cant stop you but if you tried to pass that off on any team of statisticians you'd be laughed out of the room.



i'm not celebrating jack ****. i'm just stating that when viruses mutate the waxx wont work anymore. and that is has been known for a good 100 years or so...

but somehow people think the corona is different. but we are lucky with this one. or maybe not that lucky, since it behaves just like every other virus on this planet: it get more infectious, but less dangerous. the more it mutates. NO ONE has died from omicron. ever. but for sure it will happen. just let this **** into the old peoples care homes and you will get results! no question about that that. 

i just follow tha data man. "trust the science". the real science. that is.


----------



## inferno

Nemo said:


> @inferno , by all means express your opinion. But please keep it friendly. Or at least polite.



i felt what i wrote was justified.


----------



## inferno

Nemo said:


> @inferno , by all means express your opinion. But please keep it friendly. Or at least polite.



just wanted to stop the madness once and for all. with real science.


----------



## inferno

that on top of that. has been known for about 100 years.


----------



## inferno

sorry to piss on peoples parade. but thtis is how it works. and it was what all people in the know. actually did know from the start.
the vaxx is a completely worthless POS.

questions on that?? look in the 2 link posted above.


----------



## M1k3

inferno said:


> i'm not celebrating jack ****. i'm just stating that when viruses mutate the waxx wont work anymore. and that is has been known for a good 100 years or so...
> 
> but somehow people think the corona is different. but we are lucky with this one. or maybe not that lucky, since it behaves just like every other virus on this planet: it get more infectious, but less dangerous. the more it mutates. NO ONE has died from omicron. ever. but for sure it will happen. just let this **** into the old peoples care homes and you will get results! no question about that that.
> 
> i just follow tha data man. "trust the science". the real science. that is.


How did the polio vaccine work?


----------



## inferno

Nemo.

i understand that not all people will like this chunk of data. because it goes completely against everything they have been told now for almost 2 years.
but this is how it really works. and this is real data from the .gov of denmark and norway. the most uncorrupted (or maybe non corrupted) countries in the world. you do the math.


----------



## inferno

M1k3 said:


> How did the polio vaccine work?



maybe you can tell me? 
from what i've heard they ------------------ and maybe killed millions of people? 
not at all read into the polio vaccine. but as far as i know its actually a real vaccine. that kinda PREVENTS you from getting polio.


----------



## Nemo

inferno said:


> Nemo.
> 
> i understand that not all people will like this chunk of data. because it goes completely against everything they have been told now for almost 2 years.
> but this is how it really works. and this is real data from the .gov of denmark and norway. the most uncorrupted (or maybe non corrupted) countries in the world. you do the math.


Huh???

I'm just asking you to be civil while expressing your opinions, please.


----------



## gregfisk

Inferno, what you seem to be ignoring is that the vaccines do work in keeping people from dying. If you look at the data I linked to earlier today you will see the reality of that fact. No, the vaccines don’t keep you from getting the virus and they don’t keep you from spreading it, not in the absolute sense anyway. But what they do do is keep you from dying, keep the potency of what you spread lower, like wearing a mask and keep the virus from mutating as easily. Your assumption that the vaccines are useless is completely false because they are keeping people alive. And the other false statement you made is that the vaccines are not working with the omicron variant. They absolutely are working, provided you get the third shot. The bottom line here is that if everyone would just get vaccinated we wouldn’t have to be worrying about these new variants nearly as much and the world would be a much safer place to live.


----------



## tcmx3

fantastic example of knowing just enough about stats to be dangerous.


----------



## Michi

inferno said:


> so now the vaxxed are getting infected MORE than unvaxxed!


That should not come as a surprise. Of course the number of vaccinated people getting Covid will eventually exceed the number of unvaccinated getting Covid, because the vaccine is not perfect and there are fewer and fewer easy targets for the virus. In a country with 100% vaccination rate, _everyone_ who gets Covid is vaccinated.

So what? A much more interesting question is to ask what would have happened if people didn’t get vaccinated. We have answers to these questions. Vaccinated people are about ten times less likely to require hospitalization after infection, and about 16 times less likely to die from it. Would you prefer to have 16 times the number of dead people that we actually have?


----------



## ian

Michi said:


> That should not come as a surprise. Of course the number of vaccinated people getting Covid will eventually exceed the number of unvaccinated getting Covid, because the vaccine is not perfect and there are fewer and fewer easy targets for the virus. In a country with 100% vaccination rate, _everyone_ who gets Covid is vaccinated.
> 
> So what? A much more interesting question is to ask what would have happened if people didn’t get vaccinated. We have answers to these questions. Vaccinated people are about ten times less likely to require hospitalization after infection, and about 16 times less likely to die from it. Would you prefer to have 16 times the number of dead people that we actually have?



I think his point was that in that example, 14% of the infected were unvaccinated, but 20% of the overall population is unvaccinated. So that particular data point is in his favor. But there are tons of actual studies showing that they’re effective, so I’m not saying his argument is convincing.

It’s true that the quote that @inferno was initially responding to, about the vaccines working just as well with the variants, was a little strong, as they seem to work worse than before. But they’re still very helpful and we should all get them!


----------



## gregfisk

Michi said:


> That should not come as a surprise. Of course the number of vaccinated people getting Covid will eventually exceed the number of unvaccinated getting Covid, because the vaccine is not perfect and there are fewer and fewer easy targets for the virus. In a country with 100% vaccination rate, _everyone_ who gets Covid is vaccinated.
> 
> So what? A much more interesting question is to ask what would have happened if people didn’t get vaccinated. We have answers to these questions. Vaccinated people are about ten times less likely to require hospitalization after infection, and about 16 times less likely to die from it. Would you prefer to have 16 times the number of dead people that we actually have?



YES ^^^^^^ What Michi said.

3 people live together, they all get Covid.

(1) There are two times as many people with Covid who are vaccinated than people who aren’t vaccinated.

(2) Twice as many people with Covid are vaccinated.

(3) 2 out of every 3 people with Covid are vaccinated. I could go on and on.


----------



## ian

Guys, you are misreading his point.

Edit: I’m not saying I’ve verified his data or that I’m convinced by it, just that he’s not making the mistake you’re talking about.


----------



## EShin

inferno said:


> sorry to piss on peoples parade. but thtis is how it works. and it was what all people in the know. actually did know from the start.
> the vaxx is a completely worthless POS.
> 
> questions on that?? look in the 2 link posted above.


As far as I can tell, you're right about viruses getting more infectious but less dangerous. (There is some dispute about that in science itself, with both sides following the data but having a different viewpoint on what should count as data and how to interpret it. Claiming that ones own standpoint is "real" is mostly a rhetoric of power.) Moreover, you're totally right that the virus will most likely infect most people sooner or later (but not 100% due to herd immunity, which is only a temporal phenomenon because viruses but also the population are changing constantly). In the long run, viruses are not killed or defeated (unless the host is wiped out), but there is a symbiosis of virus and host. The question then is, is there a way to soften the peak infections and to select the less dangerous variants as to prevent a collapse of the public infrastructure, especially the medical system (essentially a human-made problem, yes)? It seems that vaccines have been quite efficient in doing so, which is exactly what vaccines should do because it is as you say, they cannot defeat the virus. So I don't see why they should be completely worthless? I'm not completely sure if vaccinating all population groups and all ages is really beneficial though.


----------



## tcmx3

ian said:


> Guys, you are misreading his point.
> 
> Edit: I’m not saying I’ve verified his data or that I’m convinced by it, just that he’s not making the mistake you’re talking about.



I will agree that the incidence rate of vaccinated people getting it is higher if the source is correct and all that.

for it to matter the groups have to be otherwise identical. but because vaccination is a self-selection exercise, we know that's not the case. so you're right, the error isn't in his arithmetic, it's in his interpretation, which as I stated earlier, would charitably be called spurious.

plus as has been stated repeatedly a far more interesting question right now is whether the vaccine reduces severity.


----------



## Luftmensch

I am just going to throw this into the ring.... _infection_ and _disease_ are two very different things. If you haven't disambiguated this before, this is why the virus is called SARS-CoV-2 (the infecting agent) and the disease it causes is called COVID-19.

When it comes to vaccines, their ability to impart sterilisation immunity is rare. Most vaccines provide immune systems with the ability to recognise infectious agents so that the body can mount a response and _mitigate_ the effect of future infections. No credible immunologist ever promised COVID vaccines would provide sterilisation immunity.

Lets not fall victim to a short memory either. SARS-CoV-2 is a coronavirus. _Prior_ to COVID, we had _not_ developed a successful vaccine for coronaviruses. They infect the upper respiratory system - although it is internal to your abdomen, it is effectively an 'exterior' surface. This has made it quite difficult for researchers to effectively target an immune response in the outer layer of cells. We are living at the cutting edge of medicine and science. Be grateful for the good fortune that we have the knowledge to respond with prophylactics, non-pharmaceutical interventions (hygiene, social distancing, masks) and increasingly better treatment.

Where I live (NSW) we have reached 93% vaccination... Parts of Australia have effectively reached 100% (ACT). You can bet that a lot of people in these communities are being _infected_ with SARS-CoV-2, after all, cases are still being reported. However the incidence and transmission of severe COVID-19 (disease) cases is down.

New mutations we have to deal with? Unfortunate... but we have been monitoring this for two years now. This is not new information. We'll just have to adapt our current knowledge to keep up with the situation.


----------



## spaceconvoy

Look up Brandolini's Law to understand why logic is a waste of time here. Some people are so terrified of the vaccine they'll continue to invent new arguments that somehow frame their fearful avoidance as either wisdom or bravery.


----------



## KingShapton

spaceconvoy said:


> Look up Brandolini's Law to understand why logic is a waste of time here. Some people are so terrified of the vaccine they'll continue to invent new arguments that somehow frame their fearful avoidance as either wisdom or bravery.


I didn't even know that, thank you for pointing this out. And very true.


----------



## EricEricEric

It’s a good point, vaccines perform poorly for highly mutagenic viruses as we are seeing right before our eyes.

A good example is the influenza vaccine which is a coin flip for effectiveness. The last year that I chose to take the flu vaccine was the year it was virtually worthless, I didn’t know that was even a possibility at the time

What we are seeing suggests that you can get the current vaccine 10X, but it’s not going to protect you

The other two facts to keep in mind is that the overwhelming majority of people who are infected with Covid never even know they had Covid as the are asymptomatic. ~95% “Covid deaths” are of people with multiple comorbidities and/or 65 years of age or older. Meaning that only 5% of deaths are actually 100% due to Covid

One final issue is the mystery of the disappearing influenza, it just magically disappeared all of a sudden, even in countries and states where masks and distancing are not used.

Influenza hospitalizations are up to 700,000+ and deaths up to 50,000 annually in USA, but not for the last few years some how. Lastly annual total deaths in the USA are 3,000,000+, That means every year we have around 3 million people dying in the USA from various causes, but we have some very strange people that only care about the small percentage of people “dying from Covid” and not from all of the other causes, especially from years past

So the take home message here is that 1) it’s impossible to ever eradicate a hyper mutating virus, so Covid will never go away EVER 2) Covid deaths are around a 10th of a percent of the total population (if we include those with multiple comorbidities which generally speaking died with Covid not from ) which is still even lower than our typical annual death rate in the USA 3) only those that are old and incredibly unhealthy are dying WITH covid, but not from Covid as they would from the flu and pneumonia before it magically disappeared

That’s why kids are virtually untouched by the virus as it’s not deadly to healthy people except those with exceptionally rare genetics ie 5% of total covid “deaths”


----------



## KingShapton

EricEricEric said:


> 2) Covid deaths are around a 10th of a percent of the total population which is incredibly low, and even lower than our annual deaths


Every single death that could have been avoided is one death too many! Every single life is valuable. And even if a person with previous illnesses only had a few months to live, then these are all the more precious moments and these moments, this time was unnecessarily taken from this person and the people who are close to him. This is no small matter, it is tragic and wrong!




EricEricEric said:


> 3) only those that are old and incredibly unhealthy are dying WITH covid, but not from Covid as they would from the flu and pneumonia before it magically disappeared
> 
> That’s why kids are virtually untouched by the virus as it’s not deadly to healthy people except those with exceptionally rare genetics ie 5% of total covid “deaths”


My own experiences are different ... I lost 3 people from my circle of friends through Covid, all 3 under the age of 50, 2 of them healthy and in very good shape.


----------



## McMan

EricEricEric said:


> ~95% “Covid deaths” are of people with multiple comorbidities and/or 65 years of age or older. Meaning that only 5% of deaths are actually 100% due to Covid


Following this logic… If a person gets hit by a car and dies of pneumonia resulting from broken ribs then they didn’t 100% die of the car crash.

Or, what if a cancer patient gets hit by a car and dies of pneumonia resulting from broken ribs? Then they didn’t 100% die of the car crash either, especially because they were an immunocompromised individual before getting hit by the car. So, was it the cancer that killed them or the chemo regime?

Keep in mind that “comorbidity” is not synonymous with “pre-existing condition”. Covid can _cause_ comorbidities, such as pneumonia. So, if a person dies of pneumonia that Covid caused, did they die of pneumonia or covid? Or did they only half-die of covid?

See Johns Hopkins discuss comorbidities and misinterpretations of the 94%-vs-6% statistics here:








Excess deaths show the true impact of COVID-19 in the U.S.


Epidemiologist Justin Lessler unpacks a recent CDC report on comorbidities and coronavirus deaths that is being misinterpreted on social media




hub.jhu.edu


----------



## Krisman

ian said:


> This year is different than last year. Different variants, different levels of spread. A direct comparison of death numbers makes no sense. Current death numbers of vaccinated people vs unvaccinated people makes more sense.
> 
> 
> 
> IIRC a couple places were using vaccines that started out with 3 doses? I don't know. I'm also not sure which countries you're referring to here with the 5 doses, and why it matters. Are you saying that it's inconvenient or expensive enough to get multiple doses that it's not worth the decrease in rates of severe illness?
> 
> 
> 
> I mean, lower vaccination rates are one of like 20 differences between Africa and the US. According to at least one thing I read, many African countries had a very aggressive and early lockdown response. The weather's also different, and people are generally younger in Africa than in the US. (Median age in US = 38, median age in Africa = 20.) The difference in death rates between vaccinated and unvaccinated people in the US is a much more compelling statistic than any comparison between the US and Africa.
> 
> 
> 
> I'm a little shaky on the details here, but basically all sources I've seen say that vaccinated people are less likely to spread covid. Yes, if Adam is vaccinated and Bob isn't, and they both are currently sick with covid, to the same degree, then it seems like they'll both spread the virus at equal rates, but Adam is much less likely to get as sick as Bob from covid in the first place, so in the absolute he's less likely to spread covid.


So are you saying if one's symptoms aren't as severe i.e. less sick, the risk of spreading the infection is less? 
Because as far as I am aware, one can have no symptoms and still be highly contagious.


----------



## riba

EricEricEric said:


> A good example is the influenza vaccine which is a coin flip for effectiveness. The last year that I chose to take the flu vaccine was the year it was virtually worthless, I didn’t know that was even a possibility at the time








Past Seasons Estimated Influenza Disease Burden Averted by Vaccination | CDC


This web page provides estimates on the burden of the impact of annual influenza vaccination in the United States for the 2010–2011 through the 2017-2018 influenza seasons.




www.cdc.gov




The cost-benefits are pretty straight forward imo



EricEricEric said:


> 2) Covid deaths are around a 10th of a percent of the total population which is incredibly low,


Incredibly low????? Damn, that's incredibly asocial.

(Btw, don't neglect the burden on society of people suffering from long covid)


----------



## ian

Krisman said:


> So are you saying if one's symptoms aren't as severe i.e. less sick, the risk of spreading the infection is less?
> Because as far as I am aware, one can have no symptoms and still be highly contagious.



 Probably I shouldn’t have commented on this point, even though I said I was shaky on it. I’m confused about asymptomatic transmission rates and the relationship between viral load and symptoms and vaccination and all. I’ll delete that point and let others who actually understand this comment. Not sure I’m up for more reading of articles atm. Thanks for the pushback.


----------



## KingShapton

riba said:


> Incredibly low????? Damn, that's incredibly asocial.


----------



## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> Covid deaths are around a 10th of a percent of the total population


I really do wish you would quote your sources. I find that statement difficult to reconcile with the data here:



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/



Those figures indicate 0.24 percent. Not a lot really. Only 817,000 people so far. But, hey, who's counting…


----------



## BoSharpens

I have a problem accepting that governments are funding the research to create more powerful viruses. Some people don't. I do support the idea of learning how to create anti-viral compounds and vaccines as long as they are PROVEN safe and effective before being given to all the population.

I have mixed feelings about a government creating or co-creating vaccines where members of government institutions gain some royalties or bonuses based on creating a "vaccine" as this seems to offer a way for the same government institution to create a virus that needs a vaccine that that same group needs to make a vaccine for so they can make money on the side.

Are governments going to far when they create new viral sub-species, and then create or co-create the so called "vaccines" and certain members of "government" also earn enormous profits from such "so called vaccines"?

If I were to do all of these actions in my own company, I would be considered to be a mass murderer & likely hung in public. If I do it as a government official or researcher, I am hailed as a hero?

Here's where it gets interesting semantically and practically!

A vaccine "protects" a person from getting a disease. That is a basic truth.

Covid vaccines do not protect a person from catching Covid. The current vaccine's only stop symptoms. Worse yet, the vaccine doesn't stop a person from exhalling virus particles and transmitting the disease to others. This may ultimately mean most people have the live virus in them, maybe for life.

The really bizarre issue with Covid is that governments worldwide have used it as an excuse to become more authoritarian and indeed arbitrary. Try to avoid the vaccine when you are already carrying natural anti-viral immunity after catching Covid. In some countries you can't avoid being required to get the vaccine anyway.

Natural Covid immunity appears to be better than the so-called vaccines now, from general reading I've done. I don't know whether natural immunity is like the vaccines in that allow you could harbor the live Covid virus.

As a result of the above, the vaccine's are merely a "symptom reducer" much as a half dozen other chemical compounds reduce the symptoms of Covid, but meanwhile governments of the world have taken enormous power over their people.


----------



## gregfisk

In the US about 1000 to 1500 people are dying every day from Covid depending on the week or month. It doesn’t matter to me what percentage of deaths that is because each death is horrible for someone and most of them are avoidable.

I have a good friend who is a pharmacist at one of the big chain hospitals in the US. She tells me weekly that almost every single person in her ICU has Covid and is unvaccinated. She can count on one hand how many have come in that were vaccinated and every one of those had other serious issues. Death from Covid is horrific. The panic is so bad from not being able to breathe that the nurses have to paralyze the patient with drugs. The panic and the chest pain is so bad that the patient has to be put into an induced coma to keep them from pulling out the hoses running down their throats into their lungs. Many of these people are in her ICU for weeks or longer going through this nightmare 24/7. It is a living hell and unfortunately most of them don’t make it. Forcing oxygen into the lungs is painful and extremely damaging to the lungs. Anyone who does make it home will live with the damage for the rest of their lives. I just don’t understand anyone who thinks this is a better alternative to a simple vaccination.


----------



## SirCutAlot

My wife working in a rehab clinic says there are about 1/3 long covid rehabs now. 

Take this ******** serious, it will not get better. 

SirCutALot


----------



## MarcelNL

'fun' fact: Hardly any patient, regardless of underlying disease, will allow being intubated without sedation and analgesia...just think of the last time you inhaled something solid and imagine how a 9mm plastic tube feels inside your trachea...Mechanical ventilation, the means to keep enough Oxygen in circulation in the presence of massive Covid areas in the lungs, is (much) more efficient when the patient is sedated and paralyzed.


----------



## KingShapton

gregfisk said:


> In the US about 1000 to 1500 people are dying every day from Covid depending on the week or month. It doesn’t matter to me what percentage of deaths that is because each death is horrible for someone and most of them are avoidable.


----------



## Barmoley

gregfisk said:


> In the US about 1000 to 1500 people are dying every day from Covid depending on the week or month. It doesn’t matter to me what percentage of deaths that is because each death is horrible for someone and most of them are avoidable.



I think or at least I hope everyone will agree with this, but once you use this line of argument, there is really nothing to discuss. We as a society don’t use such standards for other policy decisions we make. Simplest example is flu, it is not as deadly or dangerous overall, but it kills plenty of people every year, yet we don’t have flu vaccine mandates, we don’t discuss how many people die of flu every year we don’t start lockdowns. I am not equating the 2 diseases, COVID pandemic is unprecedented in recent times not since 1918, and the world is different today. I am just questioning using the ”nuclear” option of “every life maters“ argument because as much as we like to say it, as a society we clearly don’t believe this.


----------



## KingShapton

Barmoley said:


> I think or at least I hope everyone will agree with this, but once you use this line of argument, there is really nothing to discuss. We as a society don’t use such standards for other policy decisions we make. Simplest example is flu, it is not as deadly or dangerous overall, but it kills plenty of people every year, yet we don’t have flu vaccine mandates, we don’t discuss how many people die of flu every year we don’t start lockdowns. I am not equating the 2 diseases, COVID pandemic is unprecedented in recent times not since 1918, and the world is different today. I am just questioning using the ”nuclear” option of “every life maters“ argument because as much as we like to say it, as a society we clearly don’t believe this.


I have to respectfully disagree with you, without wanting to attack you, but:

In that case, I don't give a damn what we believe as a society!

"EVERY LIFE MATTERS" is something I personally believe, a firm principle of mine. My way of thinking, my beliefs. And ideally, everyone should take it for granted.

"Every life matters" is not a "nuclear option" in a discussion, but should be taken for granted. More than sad that our society does not generally see it that way.


----------



## ian

BoSharpens said:


> Are governments going to far when they create new viral sub-species, and then create or co-create the so called "vaccines" and certain members of "government" also earn enormous profits from such "so called vaccines"?



It seems like you're using your skepticism about gain of function research (which I share, to some extent) to undermine the vaccines needed for the current pandemic. That seems counterproductive. It's part of an important larger conversation, but the way you're presenting it distracts from the immediate problem.



BoSharpens said:


> Here's where it gets interesting semantically and practically!
> 
> A vaccine "protects" a person from getting a disease. That is a basic truth.
> 
> Covid vaccines do not protect a person from catching Covid.



A vaccine is supposed to stimulate your immune response against a disease. See e.g. here or anywhere else. That's what the covid vaccine does.



BoSharpens said:


> As a result of the above, the vaccine's are merely a "symptom reducer" much as a half dozen other chemical compounds reduce the symptoms of Covid



What's the argument here? That there are also other therapies? Sure, but vaccination still seems to be the most effective one at the moment, no?

I hear your wish that gov'ts would allow previous exposure instead of vaccination. We've talked on this thread about that before, and I see downsides to that, but idk what makes sense practically.


----------



## ian

KingShapton said:


> I have to respectfully disagree with you, without wanting to attack you, but:
> 
> In that case, I don't give a damn what we believe as a society!
> 
> "EVERY LIFE MATTERS" is something I personally believe, a firm principle of mine. My way of thinking, my beliefs. And ideally, everyone should take it for granted.
> 
> "Every life matters" is not a "nuclear option" in a discussion, but should be taken for granted. More than sad that our society does not generally see it that way.



Barmoley's just saying that the rhetoric of every life matters ignores the point that we're always happy to accept a certain number of deaths as a trade for certain freedoms we value, which is fair enough and true for everyone. So yes, it's important to discuss percentages. Noone is legislating that we should fill in the Grand Canyon because 12 people die there every year. The scale of the pandemic is important in the discussion. And the scale is HUGE! So we can move on.


----------



## M1k3

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) - Symptoms and causes







www.mayoclinic.org


----------



## gregfisk

Ian, I like you and believe your heart is in the right place. But sometimes I just don’t understand what you are trying to say? I don’t consider every life matters as rhetoric. You state yourself at the end of the your post that the scale of this pandemic is huge. This is not a normal situation at all, which you also acknowledged. So why shouldn’t we all be doing everything possible to eradicate it and keep as many people alive as possible? It’s not something to be dismissed. We have the ability to at least keep people alive by everyone possible getting the vaccine. After that, nature is going to run its course and that is behold our control as human beings.


----------



## ian

gregfisk said:


> It doesn’t matter to me what percentage of deaths that is because each death is horrible for someone and most of them are avoidable.



Hey @gregfisk, my point is that @Barmoley was mainly responding to this line of yours, and that this line is wrong (in my view and Barmoley’s, apparently) because it *does* matter how many deaths there are. And there are tons! So we should do everything possible to stop the pandemic!

I only commented because it seemed like people were missing @Barmoley’s point. In the grand scheme of things these questions of framing are obviously much less important than stopping the pandemic. Somehow it often seems that Barmoley makes a small point about framing or something that’s a good observation, but isn’t something that he’s saying is as important as other things in the discussion, and then the point starts having outsized importance in the thread because there’s a bunch of blowback.


----------



## spaceconvoy

gregfisk said:


> So why shouldn’t we all be doing everything possible to eradicate it and keep as many people alive as possible?


Because if we followed this logic, we'd end up strictly quarantining everyone forever.


----------



## sansho

BoSharpens said:


> The really bizarre issue with Covid is that governments worldwide have used it as an excuse to become more authoritarian and indeed arbitrary.



agreed.



BoSharpens said:


> Try to avoid the vaccine when you are already carrying natural anti-viral immunity after catching Covid. In some countries you can't avoid being required to get the vaccine anyway.



i agree with this also. i think there should be some consideration for people who have contracted CoViD. it should "count" for something and be an acceptable exemption to vaccination requirements in certain contexts and for a certain period of time. the thing is, it's not easy to "convert" a CoViD recovery into a "vaccination equivalence". assuming you have dated documentation of testing positive for it... which SARSCoV2 strain did you get? (and does that matter?) and how long should that exemption be valid for? it almost certainly can't be a one-and-done thing. even if you are exempted for a while, you'll still need a booster eventually to maintain resistance.

most of the other stuff in your post seems pretty misinformed though, minimal offense intended.



BoSharpens said:


> A vaccine "protects" a person from getting a disease. That is a basic truth.
> 
> Covid vaccines do not protect a person from catching Covid. The current vaccine's only stop symptoms. Worse yet, the vaccine doesn't stop a person from exhalling virus particles and transmitting the disease to others.



i think you're failing to distinguish virus from disease. SARSCoV2 (a virus) is the etiological agent that causes CoViD19 (a disease).
even if it only reduces the severity of disease symptoms, that still counts as protection from a disease. just saying.
i'm also pretty sure that a lot of vaccines work like that. they don't guarantee complete immunity. they just improve the situation to some extent (reduction of symptoms, reduced transmissibility, etc).



BoSharpens said:


> This may ultimately mean most people have the live virus in them, maybe for life.



i think the jury's still out on viral latency of coronaviridae in humans. and especially for SARSCoV2 since it's so new. but it seems obvious to me that a turbocharged immune response capable of suppressing symptoms could only reduce the risk and extent of latency -- hopefully by a lot. it's a much better situation than having your body get sucker punched by a completely novel pathogen.



BoSharpens said:


> As a result of the above, the vaccine's are merely a "symptom reducer" much as a half dozen other chemical compounds reduce the symptoms of Covid...



again, being a "mere symptom reducer" doesn't make it not a vaccine.


----------



## sansho

BoSharpens said:


> The really bizarre issue with Covid is that governments worldwide have used it as an excuse to become more authoritarian and indeed arbitrary.



my theory on this is it's not purely for the sake of expansion of authoritarian power/expression. a lot of it seems silly and arbitrary because it is. it's at least partially for the sake of appearances, i.e. it's security theater.





__





Security theater - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





just like a lot of TSA stuff. stupid as hell but makes morons feel better.

to keep their jobs, they need to at least _appear_ to be doing something about it.


----------



## sansho

this reminds me.. i recently had an unpleasant experience at the intersection of these issues: CoViD x TSA, lmao.

i was wearing a real half-mask respirator with P100 cartridges that i had modified to be "non-vented" for the sake of compliance (exhaust valve covered with filter material and silicone sealant). i was ultimately able to wear it, but i was hassled a couple of times. clueless people would point to the cartridges (not even the exhaust valve area, lol) and insist that "the vents are right there! i can see them!" in turn, i asked, "how can someone breathe if air can't get into a respirator? do you actually understand what a vented mask is or why it's not permitted? how can you effectively enforce a policy that you do not understand?" blank stare in return.

on top of that, they're lecturing me about it while they wear ill-fitted dinky little surgical-style mask with a ~1cm gap around almost the whole perimeter. practically hanging off their face. i would bet that my UNMODIFIED respirator (exhaust valve unobstructed) would block at least as many exhaled particles as that, lol.

i'm not saying that this resistance came as a surprise to me. it was my own fault that i was hassled. to borrow from asian idiom, "the nail that sticks out gets hammered down". it's just unfortunate that someone has to put up with so much bs just to wear a mask that's actually worth anything at all.

i have a trip to cali next week, and idk if i'll go through that again. i'll probably just wear a basic bitchmade mask, lol.


----------



## Barmoley

ian said:


> Hey @gregfisk, my point is that @Barmoley was mainly responding to this line of yours, and that this line is wrong (in my view and Barmoley’s, apparently) because it *does* matter how many deaths there are. And there are tons! So we should do everything possible to stop the pandemic!
> 
> I only commented because it seemed like people were missing @Barmoley’s point. In the grand scheme of things these questions of framing are obviously much less important than stopping the pandemic. Somehow it often seems that Barmoley makes a small point about framing or something that’s a good observation, but isn’t something that he’s saying is as important as other things in the discussion, and then the point starts having outsized importance in the thread because there’s a bunch of blowback.


Framing matters because you can't discuss anything when absolutes are used. Most don't want to live in a police state and most agree that we shouldn't vaccinate people by force. So we are discussing, among other things, what can be done to encourage people to vaccinate. Some suggested that unvaxxed people should be refused emergency service if they get sick with covid and require such service. The counter point was made that there are other activities that people voluntarily engage in that land them in hospitals. We could discuss if these are equivalent or otherwise, but as soon as you bring up that every life matters and we should do everything possible to save every life there is really nothing to discuss. If every life truly matters we shouldn't let anyone do anything dangerous, which is absurd. It seems pretty clear that covid is not going anywhere soon and that even if we could vaccinate 100% of the population some people would still die from it. So framing and percentages matter since at some point we will have to decide what level of covid deaths is acceptable to continue with life. We do this with flu and other diseases and we will with covid at some point.


----------



## gregfisk

ian said:


> Hey @gregfisk, my point is that @Barmoley was mainly responding to this line of yours, and that this line is wrong (in my view and Barmoley’s, apparently) because it *does* matter how many deaths there are. And there are tons! So we should do everything possible to stop the pandemic!
> 
> I only commented because it seemed like people were missing @Barmoley’s point. In the grand scheme of things these questions of framing are obviously much less important than stopping the pandemic. Somehow it often seems that Barmoley makes a small point about framing or something that’s a good observation, but isn’t something that he’s saying is as important as other things in the discussion, and then the point starts having outsized importance in the thread because there’s a bunch of blowback.



WOW, do we miss each other’s points... I’m NOT saying it doesn’t matter how many deaths there are at all, in fact just the opposite. My point is that the PERCENTAGE doesn’t matter to me because all deaths are a tragedy. Full stop for clarity sake.


----------



## ian

gregfisk said:


> My point is that the PERCENTAGE doesn’t matter to me because all deaths are a tragedy.



If you interpret this sentence literally, it says that you do not see a difference between .000001% of Americans dying and .3% of Americans dying. Barmoley's point is just that you don't upend the country when .000001% of Americans die. (That's 3 total Americans.) Does it make sense that that's how this sentence can be read?

Totally agree that all deaths are a tragedy, but you don't alter national policy because of 3 deaths.


----------



## gregfisk

Okay, just never mind. I think most people understand what I’m saying.


----------



## sansho

another little rant...

it seems dumb to me that businesses and other entities request "_proof_ of vaccination". aren't they really asking for _evidence_ of vaccination?


----------



## daveb

Is there a difference?


----------



## tcmx3

gregfisk said:


> Okay, just never mind. I think most people understand what I’m saying.



all I can say is that I hope it is as obvious to others that it is to me that barmoley is intentionally misinterpreting what you're saying.

more generally some folks are just really committed to people being thrown into the meat grinder for "the economy" or "freedom" or whatever other dumb shibboleth and when I think about how covid deaths have disproportionately hit poor people and BIPOC folks it's hard for me not to make some pretty bad assumptions about motivations.


----------



## xxxclx

sansho said:


> another little rant...
> 
> it seems dumb to me that businesses and other entities request "_proof_ of vaccination". aren't they really asking for _evidence_ of vaccination?



I smell a lawyer or a logician at work here


----------



## ian

sansho said:


> another little rant...
> 
> it seems dumb to me that businesses and other entities request "_proof_ of vaccination". aren't they really asking for _evidence_ of vaccination?



Heh like you want them to analyze blood samples at the door to call it proof? Or wait, maybe you are making a distinction between proof and evidence like in law or some of the hard sciences? I’m fine with the colloquial usage, and actually “proof” seems more accurate in this instance from a mathematician’s perspective, but if you’re a lawyer I can see why it would bother you!


----------



## tcmx3

ian said:


> Heh like you want them to analyze blood samples at the door to call it proof? Or wait, maybe you are making a distinction between proof and evidence like in law or some of the hard sciences? I’m fine with the colloquial usage, and actually “proof” seems more accurate in this instance from a mathematician’s perspective, but if you’re a lawyer I can see why it would bother you!



I think it's the latter and actually I found Sansho's post pretty humorous myself.

of course I also used to have to go and remove the word "proven" or some variation of it from sales material on a regular basis so it's sort of a traumatized laughter, if you know what I mean.


----------



## Luftmensch

daveb said:


> Is there a difference?





ian said:


> distinction between proof and evidence



Proof is an unequivocal or conclusive demonstration. It is unambiguous. Evidence is used to support a theory or hypothesis but it is _not_ definitive. 'Proof' is really just the ultimate end point in the spectrum of evidence.

If you trust the state... and I trust mine... a vaccine passport is 'proof' I was vaccinated. Pointing to a bandaid on my shoulder and getting my mate to say: "yeah I saw him get injected with some stuff two weeks ago" is evidence.

Sure, a sceptic can make credible assertions about how vaccine passports can be counterfeit. Therefore it is not 'proof'... but on the balance of odds it may as well be considered as conclusive.




tcmx3 said:


> I think it's the latter and actually I found Sansho's post pretty humorous myself.



As above; I am comfortable with the former.




tcmx3 said:


> of course I also used to have to go and remove the word "proven" or some variation of it from sales material on a regular basis so it's sort of a traumatized laughter, if you know what I mean.



 I do know what you mean!


----------



## sansho

ian said:


> “proof” seems more accurate in this instance from a mathematician’s perspective



interesting. how so?



Luftmensch said:


> If you trust the state... and I trust mine... a vaccine passport is 'proof' I was vaccinated. Pointing to a bandaid on my shoulder and getting my mate to say: "yeah I saw him get injected with some stuff two weeks ago" is evidence.
> 
> Sure, a sceptic can make credible assertions about how vaccine passports can be counterfeit. Therefore it is not 'proof'... but on the balance of odds it may as well be considered as conclusive.



at every place i've been to so far (in the US), they seem to accept a picture on your phone of someone else's phone displaying a picture of a photocopy of a photocopy of a possibly counterfeit card. on balance, they may ask to see your ID and verify that the name matches.

this is very weak evidence at best. it doesn't prove jack.

or just print one of these and fill it out. done deal 
i personally know several unvaccinated people who routinely display this "proof" upon request.


----------



## sansho

tcmx3 said:


> of course I also used to have to go and remove the word "proven" or some variation of it from sales material on a regular basis so it's sort of a traumatized laughter, if you know what I mean.



haha


----------



## ian

sansho said:


> interesting. how so?



Unqualified, ‘evidence’ is a kind of weak term in math. Evidence that something is true is like, you had a computer check that it’s true for the first 20 cases, but there’s still infinitely many more cases to check. A vaccine card is (at least in theory) conclusive proof that you’re vaccinated, it’s not just a piece of supporting evidence that suggests that you’re vaccinated.

If you add into the situation that vaccine cards could be fake, they’re neither proof nor evidence. So I’m fine with them aspirationally being proof.


----------



## Luftmensch

ian said:


> Unqualified, ‘evidence’ is a kind of weak term in math. Evidence that something is true is like, you had a computer check that it’s true for the first 20 cases, but there’s still infinitely many more cases to check.



I read this post 20 times and 20 times only. It was true each time... so by induction.... 

Out of meandering interest... 'Evidence' is an important term in bayesian statistics/inference. It is used a lot. Often we are unable to make direct observations of variables of interest. These are called hidden variables. Instead we have to do the best we can with incomplete, indirect or noisy observations. These weaker observations are called 'evidence'.

Generally, the uncertainty in a model decreases as you gather evidence. The opposite of uncertainty is _belief_ - as you gather more evidence, your belief in a hypothesis get stronger.

One of the cool outcomes from Bayesian statistics is that you can never know something definitively. Instead knowledge is represented as probability distributions. To know something definitively, you'd need to collect an infinite amount of evidence. If you did, your distribution might collapse into something that looked like a dirac delta function. But this is 'in the limit'... instead we just have to settle for being "pretty bloody sure"...


----------



## chefwp

Keith Sinclair said:


> It is tough on parents and kids. Cyber learning didn't fair well here my niece was a teacher & cyber learning was very effective with her kids, but that's not the norm.


and it varies by kid. My youngest did ok with cyber, by oldest started out ok, but completely fell apart towards the end of the school year. Of course when I say 'my youngest did ok' I mean she kept her grades and spirits up. Now did she learn and hit the milestones a smart 5th grader should in a normal year? That is tougher to answer, I kind of doubt it.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

When I went for yearly checkup my doctor they asked if I wanted shingles vaccine. I inquired is it that big of a deal she said if you had chicken pox at any time you could be at risk. I'm 72 had chicken pox kindergarten age. Doesn't matter when so guess stuff does stay in your body a long time. Recently had a Moderna booster, & flu shot. That's enough for me don't know anybody with shingles.


----------



## Luftmensch

Keith Sinclair said:


> When I went for yearly checkup my doctor they asked if I wanted shingles vaccine. I inquired is it that big of a deal she said if you had chicken pox at any time you could be at risk. I'm 72 had chicken pox kindergarten age. Doesn't matter when so guess stuff does stay in your body a long time. Recently had a Moderna booster, & flu shot. That's enough for me don't know anybody with shingles.



I would err on the side of getting the shingles vaccine (is it just the chickenpox vaccine??). One of my family members suffered a shingles episode. Similar to you, they had chicken pox when they were a child and the shingles occurred many years later when they were in their 60's. Sure, it is not common... but you don't want it. It is hard to shake and it caused my relative a prolonged period of painful neuralgia.

Speak to your doctor. If the downsides are low, the vaccine may save you from an unpleasant experience. Talking about the efficacy of the vaccine, given your childhood exposure to chickenpox, will also help you balance the decision.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Guess I'll do some reading saw a warning on TV about it. I also was due for a tetanus shot when I took a fall & needed stitches. So poked 3 times recently wasn't in the mood at time for another one.


----------



## MarcelNL

Shingles vaccination is the best way to help protect yourself against


CDC recommends two doses of Shingrix to prevent shingles and related complications in adults 50 years and older and adults 19 years and older who have weakened immune systems because of disease or therapy.




www.cdc.gov





Believe me, shingles is not something that goes away unnoticed should you get it...


----------



## KingShapton

MarcelNL said:


> Believe me, shingles is not something that goes away unnoticed should you get it...


sad but true


----------



## Michi

Shingles are a hoax… until you get them. Then you wish you were dead. Or, if you are a smart wisher, that you had got the vaccine.


----------



## chefwp

story on NPR this morning
*anger grows at unvaccinated in Colorado*


----------



## gregfisk

I’ve had shingles 3 times in the last 10 years. All before I ended up in the ER and the DRs figured out what was wrong with me that almost killed me. For me I’m pretty sure my blood disorder and the stress of running my company were to blame. I really don’t think I’ll get them again. I did get one shot recently and I got sick enough from it that I didn’t get the second one. I’m not suggesting anyone should do that. I know shingles can be extremely painful for some but they never bothered me all that much. I got them around my midsection and that was about it. I had a very mild case of chicken pox as a kid and we literally couldn’t get our daughter to contract them. We exposed her 4 times but she never did. Back then that’s what the DRs suggested, that may have changed by now. I don’t know if there’s a correlation between having mild chicken pox and mild shingles but that was my experience. Nor do I know if that had anything to do with my daughter not getting them, no matter how many times we tried. What I can say is that my father in law had them and he was in a world of hurt. He was a tough guy but those shingles really beat him up. He had them all over his body and he was in a lot of pain. If that was my experience I would definitely get the shots.


----------



## MarcelNL

Post herpetic neuralgia is a condition for which the treatment is by no means perfect...loads of trial and error on a patient by patient basis. Not trying to scare anyone, but my vote would be to make attempt to avoid it all together!


----------



## MarcelNL

back to On Topic:









Video: Doctor explains important takeaway about Omicron in South Africa - CNN Video


Dr. Shabir Madhi, professor of vaccinology at the University of Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, says that even though Omicron is spreading at a higher rate than the Delta variant, it is killing people at a lower rate indicating an "uncoupling of infection and severe disease and death."




edition.cnn.com





this would be great news if true in all regions....the bad news is that the AZ vaccine might not work against Omikron from15 weeks post dose onwards


----------



## KingShapton

gregfisk said:


> I did get one shot recently and I got sick enough from it that I didn’t get the second one.


That's how it was for me after the second shot, I felt really bad for 24 hours. BUT, after the second shot there is rest for the rest of my life and these 24 hours are nothing compared to the "fun" I had with shingles in the past.

If I were you, I would consider taking the second shot as well. Most of the time, you only react so violently once and that is already behind you.


----------



## KingShapton

MarcelNL said:


> this would be great news if true in all regions....


I hope so too, but realistically it is too early to have enough data to evaluate, currently it is only first estimates based on the few available data.




MarcelNL said:


> regions....the bad news is that the AZ vaccine might not work against Omikron from15 weeks post dose onwards


With the other vaccines, too, a series of tests shows that they only protect against infection with Omikron for a very limited time (? 3 months). The Biontec boss already speaks of the need for a 4th vaccination for longer protection.

BUT the protection against a severe course of the disease and against hospitalization should work beyond this time. I very much hope this is true, otherwise the whole world has a very serious problem.


----------



## Barmoley

MarcelNL said:


> this would be great news if true in all regions....the bad news is that the AZ vaccine might not work against Omikron from15 weeks post dose onwards



This sounds promising. I've also read that Pfizer original 2 dose provides about 70 % protection against severe disease and hospitalization, not as good as originally, but still pretty good. Booster increases protection even more. One problem is that because Omicron seems more contagious and transmission protection is lower there might still be many people that will get it and some of these will end up in a hospital.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

I have been reading up on it as we get older immune system not as efficient & risk for shingles goes up. One in three un vac. seniors who had chicken pox get it. That's enough to consider getting the shots.


----------



## VICTOR J CREAZZI

I've had both Shingrix shots a few years ago. The last couple of weeks I've had what I think is hives. I was wondering if this is a mild case of shingles. Not ever having shingles I don't really know if this is the same.


----------



## gregfisk

In my experience hives are itchy mounds that are hard and, well itchy. Shingles are open sores and much smaller so very different.


----------



## BoSharpens

VICTOR J CREAZZI said:


> Not ever having shingles I don't really know if this is the same.



Look up "shingles" in Wikipedia and if in doubt, call your doctor for advice. Shingles can virtually destroy an older person's life as I saw with a friend in his 80s who couldn't sleep because of the pain. Get the shingles shot if you haven't already had it.


----------



## Luftmensch

MarcelNL said:


> Post herpetic neuralgia is a condition for which the treatment is by no means perfect...loads of trial and error on a patient by patient basis. Not trying to scare anyone, but my vote would be to make attempt to avoid it all together!





Living with (near) untreatable pain is hell...


----------



## VICTOR J CREAZZI

VICTOR J CREAZZI said:


> I've had both Shingrix shots a few years ago.





BoSharpens said:


> Get the shingles shot if you haven't already had it.


The first sentence of my post. But thanks for your concern.


----------



## sansho

Luftmensch said:


> I would err on the side of getting the shingles vaccine (is it just the chickenpox vaccine??).



they're not the same vaccine.
chickenpox live attenuated.
shingles is protein subunit antigen. although there was a recently-discontinued one that was pretty much the chickenpox vaccine but different dosage.

in the US anyways.

i will totally get vaccinated with whatever anti-shingles crap they have when i'm older.
unfortunately, i had chickenpox as a kid. iirc, i was intentionally exposed  lol
i wish that didn't happen to me. i would have much rather just been vaccinated. i could have probably held out for a few years until it became more common. oh well.

edit: looks like i wasn't even 10 when the vaccine was introduced in the US. i totally could have gotten it instead of the real mccoy. i think my mom probably just didn't know about it. doh!

i hope shingles is largely a thing of the past for new generations


----------



## Luftmensch

sansho said:


> they're not the same vaccine.
> chickenpox live attenuated.
> shingles is protein subunit antigen. although there was a recently-discontinued one that was pretty much the chickenpox vaccine but different dosage.



Interesting to know!



sansho said:


> i will totally get vaccinated with whatever anti-shingles crap they have when i'm older.
> unfortunately, i had chickenpox as a kid. iirc, i was intentionally exposed  lol
> i wish that didn't happen to me. i would have much rather just been vaccinated. i could have probably held out for a few years until it became more common. oh well.



Me too. Pump my arm full of it!! Once I hit 50 or 60 I'll consult a GP and ask about a shingles vaccine. It sounds worse than chickenpox to me!

I was in a transition era. The vaccine hadnt been invented but the doctors were not encouraging deliberate infection either. As a result I reached adulthood without being vaccinated nor having had chickenpox. Almost 10 years ago I was travelling and I met with family. My second nephew once-removed... in law... (or something like that) broke out in chickenpox after I left. After hearing the news, I immediately rushed out and got vaccinated. Luckily I didn't get chicken pox. Hopefully it isn't lying dormant in my nerves...


----------



## VICTOR J CREAZZI

After looking at wiki pictures of shingles and hives, I'm pretty certain that I have hives.


----------



## boomchakabowwow

this has been a public health issue. rules kinda change. like back in the day when they chased down Typhoid Mary and institutionalized her. 

i grew up under science and i'm compelled to believe the science as a result. we absolutely kicked a few diseases into extinction with some robust vaccination programs. i have a tiny scar on my arm to prove it. i dont remember it, but i think we were MANDATED to get vaccinated before we could go into a public school. i do remember school-wide TB test, and that test was invasive. i dont remember a bunch of mom's protesting. imagine? the planet would burn down if the covid vaccine left a tiny scar in our arms like the old vaccines did. 

it's a weird planet now. i had a college professor teach us that the ONLY way for the planet to get along 100% - lets call it TEAM EARTH. zero in-fighting, an entire planet coming together as one, fighting for one cause. he asked us, "can we come up with one cause?" the class was silent. he locked us down. we couldnt come up with the answer. so he tells us. he said, the only way the planet gets along 100% is if an Alien (space aliens) invasion happens. ***? basically, he said never. if aliens did invade? i bet we dont get 100% team earth. 

i travel a lot. well, i did. i am vaccinated plenty. i got them all when i did South East Asia. i couldnt go without some proof. i was cool with that.

if i had a wish, i wish the vaccine protected us 100% and prevented spreading 100%. let the other throw the dice. i dont want to provide the dice.


----------



## MarcelNL

so we just went back into lockdown until Mid January, in preparation for Omikron which is spreading like a disease...(from 2.5% last week to 25% this week) Boostering was started as slow as with the initial vaccination so once more we're late to the game.


----------



## ian

MarcelNL said:


> which is spreading like a disease


----------



## Noxion

MarcelNL said:


> so we just went back into lockdown until Mid January, in preparation for Omikron which is spreading like a disease...(from 2.5% last week to 25% this week) Boostering was started as slow as with the initial vaccination so once more we're late to the game.



You were surely visiting your Denmark friends too much, not observing Brexit in the proper religious way and partying too much with the Afrikaners.


----------



## Barmoley

So looks like omicron or whatever is going around here is very contagious and couldn't care less about vaccines at least the original 2 shots of Pfizer and previous infection. Totally anecdotal and unscientific evidence plus some assumptions follows. I bunch of kids in our school and friends gymnastics gym are positive. All vaccinated with 2 shots of Pfizer and some had covid in January/February. All had/have very, very mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. Most wouldn't know they were sick if they didn't test and some thought they had a very mild cold. Few had low grade fever for about a day or two. So as far as symptoms are concerned vaccine and previous infection are probably helping, but as far as transmission, doesn't seem to help enough given how many people got sick in a very short period of time. More than 30 people teenagers and 20-40 year old's within a week. I only know of 1 unvaccinated teen who also got it and her symptoms were equally mild. The strange thing is that most tested negative while having the peek of the symptoms, for the ones who had them, but then started getting positive test results while recovering and symptoms going away. For example, symptoms started Sunday night/Monday morning. They got negative results from both rapid and PCR tests Wednesday night at the peek of symptoms and then positive results Saturday morning from the rapid, antigen test, while no more symptoms on Saturday.

Given how late in the game the tests seem to be catching it, no wonder a bunch of people infected each other. The lack of protection for transmission is concerning, but the symptoms are mild so far for this group, so maybe not all bad.


----------



## EricEricEric

How are they testing to know if a person has the new variant and where do the old variants go when the new one comes out?


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Oahu had a 5X spike after Thanksgiving most Delta, but Omicron picking up too 

I sure as heck don't want another shutdown. Hawaiian airlines just resumed flights to Australia. The Aussies that landed in Honolulu got the treatment hula dancers & flower lei at the airport. Asians are not traveling to Hawaii in numbers yet most have been Mainland tourist
since we reopened to tourist.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Hawaii locals like any excuse to have gatherings with family & friends. That's why Thanksgiving is popular here. 

We are more strict than Mainland. Any public indoors must wear mask. Many places must show proof of vaccine & ID. Some eating places 
have temperature check station. 
Have my phone vac. & drivers licence ready if need them. 

Still keep disinfecting gel in my car.


----------



## M1k3

Barmoley said:


> So looks like omicron or whatever is going around here is very contagious and couldn't care less about vaccines at least the original 2 shots of Pfizer and previous infection. Totally anecdotal and unscientific evidence plus some assumptions follows. I bunch of kids in our school and friends gymnastics gym are positive. All vaccinated with 2 shots of Pfizer and some had covid in January/February. All had/have very, very mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. Most wouldn't know they were sick if they didn't test and some thought they had a very mild cold. Few had low grade fever for about a day or two. So as far as symptoms are concerned vaccine and previous infection are probably helping, but as far as transmission, doesn't seem to help enough given how many people got sick in a very short period of time. More than 30 people teenagers and 20-40 year old's within a week. I only know of 1 unvaccinated teen who also got it and her symptoms were equally mild. The strange thing is that most tested negative while having the peek of the symptoms, for the ones who had them, but then started getting positive test results while recovering and symptoms going away. For example, symptoms started Sunday night/Monday morning. They got negative results from both rapid and PCR tests Wednesday night at the peek of symptoms and then positive results Saturday morning from the rapid, antigen test, while no more symptoms on Saturday.
> 
> Given how late in the game the tests seem to be catching it, no wonder a bunch of people infected each other. The lack of protection for transmission is concerning, but the symptoms are mild so far for this group, so maybe not all bad.


As far as I understand, not being a virologist and all, Omicron is more contagious, less symptomatic.


----------



## KingShapton

Barmoley said:


> The strange thing is that most tested negative while having the peek of the symptoms, for the ones who had them, but then started getting positive test results while recovering and symptoms going away. For example, symptoms started Sunday night/Monday morning. They got negative results from both rapid and PCR tests Wednesday night at the peek of symptoms and then positive results Saturday morning from the rapid, antigen test, while no more symptoms on Saturday.
> 
> Given how late in the game the tests seem to be catching it, no wonder a bunch of people infected each other.


That would also explain, in addition to the greater risk of infection and the fact that Omikron can bypass the vaccination protection, which this variant spreads so quickly. A "stealth mode" for rapid tests and PCR tests would be devastating!


----------



## MarcelNL

The data on severity etc is not yet solid enough, given the speed of increase of the infection rate in a couple of countries more contagious appears to be a given and the fact that boosters are needed too.


----------



## EricEricEric

It looks like Covid is starting to burn itself out, doesn’t look like the mRNA vaccines were very effective either along with the masks and lockdowns

We will have to keep an eye on the states and countries with the most vaccinated populations etc VS the ones with the least

So far the south eastern USA is doing incredibly well, meaning it’s possible the “professionals” may have been pushing us in the wrong direction all along

I’m always concerned about corruption when we’re dealing with billions of dollars in profits from corporations directly funding politicians campaigns

The reality is the only people at risk are in a severe minority ie multiple comorbidities and/or 65+ and realistically those are the only people that need direct help and attention.

Realistically the best thing for a mutating virus are therapeutics and early as possible treatment with those therapeutics not a vaccine that’s always a step behind which we are seeing unfold before our very eyes as the mutations are endless


----------



## MarcelNL

O man what a load of B&^%

Guess how the scenery would have been without the Vaccines? The holes could not have been dug deep enough to bury the dead, google what went on in Brazil for reference....disclaimer; not a pretty sight!

It's a vaccine that prevents you from getting severely ill or aill at all, the antiviral drugs only come into play once you are infected...compare it to using condoms to prevent contracting a VD versus getting a prescription after you got infected HOPING you did not contract a VD that is immune to the antibiotic RX you have in hand. You pick your preferred option!


----------



## ian

EricEricEric said:


> How are they testing to know if a person has the new variant



Seems like the samples submitted to PCR tests can be further analyzed genetically to distinguish between variants.



EricEricEric said:


> where do the old variants go when the new one comes out?



I guess if the new variant spreads more easily and also provides some immunity against the old variant, the old variant will eventually start to die out.


----------



## stringer

EricEricEric said:


> The reality is the only people at risk are in a severe minority ie multiple comorbidities and/or 65+ and realistically those are the only people that need direct help and attention.



45% of people have comorbidities for Covid-19 in the US (not sure about globally) and there are 900 million people in the world over the age of 65. Surely there's some overlap but we are only talking about a minority in the strictest mathematical definition of the word. Hardly a "severe" minority. Because best case scenario you are saying that about half of the world's population is expendable because you don't want to stay home or get a jab. So we just say cut out losses, do nothing, and let the reaper sort it out? Not to mention you are once again ignoring long-covid and the people who survive being intubated but have to deal with lung scarring and other side affects for the rest of their lives. And these aren't all old and sick folks. Plenty of young healthy people are no longer healthy after a round with Covid. I don't trust the government or big corporations any more than the next person. But I also try to remember that those people are just people too. Trying to do the best they can with the information and tools and training that they have. You do what you want. I'm going to avoid going out in public, mask up, and get as many jabs as they'll give me.


----------



## ian

EricEricEric said:


> It looks like Covid is starting to burn itself out









This is new reported cases. Note the upward trajectory at the end.

I also don't get why you hate vaccines, but applaud therapeutics. They both help fight the disease. They both work, albeit imperfectly, and the vaccines seems to work a bit better in general. From the little I've read, they're also much less expensive to make: something like $37 per dose vs $1250 per treatment for the monoclonal antibodies. (This is just from a super brief googling, so maybe my numbers are off here. _Edit: I found another __source__ saying $2100 per treatment, vs $20 for vaccines._) Maybe the price difference is not the right thing to look at, because you only give the latter to people who actually test positive, whereas you (try) to give vaccines to everyone, but I imagine it's also much more expensive and taxing on the system to wait for people to get sick, then have them have to come into the hospital and get a treatment, than it is to just vaccinate them at some point and then have them NOT come into the hospital. I just don't get why you're determined to deny that vaccines can be an effective way to fight this. What's the point?


----------



## MarcelNL

Last bulge was Delta, just wait until Omikron gets around real good...any day now, no need to hold your breath for too long....the spike is likely going up steeper than ever before


----------



## stringer

MarcelNL said:


> Last bulge was Delta, just wait until Omikron gets around real good...any day now, no need to hold your breath for too long....the spike is likely going up steeper than ever before


Forecasters expect 1 million cases per day in a few weeks in the US. That's double where we were last January.


----------



## riba

EricEricEric said:


> The reality is the only people at risk are in a severe minority ie multiple comorbidities and/or 65+ and realistically those are the only people that need direct help and attention.











How many people get 'long COVID'? More than half, researchers find: Half of COVID survivors experience lingering symptoms six months after recovery


More than half of the 236 million people who have been diagnosed with COVID-19 worldwide since December 2019 will experience post-COVID symptoms -- more commonly known as 'long COVID' -- up to six months after recovering, according to researchers. The research team said that governments, health...



www.sciencedaily.com





Never heard of long COVID? Well, you don't care about 1 in 1000 deaths either if I remember correctly


----------



## MarcelNL

Health economics is a hornets nest at best, it's very VERY difficult to do the math on what is 'cheaper' even when you figure out what a 'QOL' is worth (x amount of time of a person in good health). Truth is, prevention typically is cheaper than therapy...just think about the amount of $$ spent each day in hospital, or ICU, or with long COVID


----------



## EricEricEric

I have to question the validly of your argument, if every life and injury matters that would include those that die and are injured due to complications from the vaccination as well would it not?

Do they matter, do their lives matter?

Also, we have to consider is that if vaccinations masks and isolation are so effective, why do individuals who practice those standards still become infected and run the risk of dying anyways?

We continually see break through cases every time a new variant emerges, is this really the best we can do?

Finally, with the initial variant we saw the rates drop before the vaccine was in use. We are also seeing countries with incredibly low vaccination rates and no precautions performing significantly better

It’s important to remain critical to find a true solution instead of believing what ever the TV says and continue to suffer for 2++++ years and running, don’t you think?




riba said:


> How many people get 'long COVID'? More than half, researchers find: Half of COVID survivors experience lingering symptoms six months after recovery
> 
> 
> More than half of the 236 million people who have been diagnosed with COVID-19 worldwide since December 2019 will experience post-COVID symptoms -- more commonly known as 'long COVID' -- up to six months after recovering, according to researchers. The research team said that governments, health...
> 
> 
> 
> www.sciencedaily.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Never heard of long COVID? Well, you don't care about 1 in 1000 deaths either if I remember correctly


----------



## riba

MarcelNL said:


> Health economics is a hornets nest at best, it's very VERY difficult to do the math on what is 'cheaper' even when you figure out what a 'QOL' is worth (x amount of time of a person in good health). Truth is, prevention typically is cheaper than therapy...just think about the amount of $$ spent each day in hospital, or ICU, or with long COVID


I guess you're referring to QALY's, (for those googling) which is typically used to compare health outcome


----------



## M1k3

EricEricEric said:


> I have to question the validly of your argument, if every life and injury matters that would include those that die and are injured due to complications from the vaccination as well would it not?
> 
> Do they matter, do their lives matter?
> 
> Also, we have to consider is that if vaccinations masks and isolation are so effective, why do individuals who practice those standards still become infected and run the risk of dying anyways?
> 
> We continually see break through cases every time a new variant emerges, is this really the best we can do?
> 
> Finally, with the initial variant we saw the rates drop before the vaccine was in use. We are also seeing countries with incredibly low vaccination rates and no precautions performing significantly better
> 
> It’s important to remain critical to find a true solution I stead of believing what ever the TV says and continue to suffer for 2++++ years and running, don’t you think?


Because nothing is 100% effective. But reducing hospitalizations by even 20-40% by reducing transmission some, is better than nothing.

Like seatbelts. They aren't 100% effective, but, they do reduce injuries enough that it makes damn good sense to use them.

A mask is such a cheap and effective tool to use in this pandemic. Combined with vaccines, it's a no brainer to me.


----------



## riba

EricEricEric said:


> I have to question the validly of your argument, if every life and injury matters that would include those that die and are injured due to complications from the vaccination as well would it not?
> 
> Do they matter, do their lives matter?


Yes, of course I'd say. Pretty obvious to me?
I actually reported side effects to vaccination. It is very important to get proper stats

You just have an overwhelming evidence against you that, until omicron, it is best bet to vaccinate (etc). 
Things change. If you have a cristal ball, please give it to somebody capable.
But boostering seems best bet so far. Again.


----------



## MarcelNL

All effects matter in that equation, you may question everything, it's just problematic that you seem to ignore facts as you choose. Also when mentioning 'countries' it helps the discussion if you name them, now it's a loose ended statement....

Masks and isolation offers some protection, yet it depends on 'mask hygiene' and execution of isolation how much, so questioning the overall effect is a bit over the top like saying that 'people still die even when wearing seat belts'

Being critical is fine, but be critical of what you think and or express too...try find the facts amongst the tons of nonsense that is floating around!


----------



## riba

EricEricEric said:


> Finally, with the initial variant we saw the rates drop before the vaccine was in use. We are also seeing countries with incredibly low vaccination rates and no precautions performing significantly better


I remember talking to an oncologist from South Africa (during the esmo conference). Cancer is not as big a topic there as it is here. You fill in the blanks. Apples, pears, etc


----------



## EricEricEric

I keep reading about ill affects people are having due to the vaccinations, it’s rather concerning. Especially for these age groups that run incredibly low risks due to Covid, but rather much higher risk due to the vaccinations 

This is just one of the many findings, this one being the latest. We’ve seen a lot of people just dropping dead, more and more information is suggesting the vaccinations.


The other point to consider is that even if you have the vaccination you can just as readily pass the virus along or even at a greater rate than a person that’s asymptomatic. 

I’ve seen a lot of reports from the UK showing that the majority of people sick with Covid are fully vaccinated as well

*Conclusions* Vaccination with mRNA-1273 was associated with a significantly increased risk of myocarditis or myopericarditis in the Danish population, primarily driven by an increased risk among individuals aged 12-39 years, while BNT162b2 vaccination was only associated with a significantly increased risk among women.









SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and myocarditis or myopericarditis: population based cohort study


Objective To investigate the association between SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and myocarditis or myopericarditis. Design Population based cohort study. Setting Denmark. Participants 4 931 775 individuals aged 12 years or older, followed from 1 October 2020 to 5 October 2021. Main outcome measures...




www.bmj.com


----------



## Barmoley

stringer said:


> Forecasters expect 1 million cases per day in a few weeks in the US. That's double where we were last January.


There will definitely be a lot since even vaccinated and vaccinated plus recovered seem to get it. The latest variant, I assume this is what is going around here, looks to be extremely contagious. So far the cases seem mild, but it could be because most of the people who got it so far have been vaccinated. Of course with mild cases many people won't even test, so there is a very high chance the numbers are higher than we think already.


----------



## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> I keep reading about ill affects people are having due to the vaccinations, it’s rather concerning. Especially for these age groups that run incredibly low risks due to Covid, but rather much higher risk due to the vaccinations
> 
> This is just one of the many findings, this one being the latest. We’ve seen a lot of people just dropping dead, more and more information is suggesting the vaccinations.


Your powers of observation continue to astound me.


> absolute rate 1.4 per 100 000 vaccinated individuals within 28 days of vaccination


These people spent some time in hospital and then went home.

That compares with a 1.6% death rate from COVID infections. That's 1,600 _dead_ people.

I'm sure it is worth paying attention to 1.4 sick people as opposed to 1,600 dead ones…

Michi.


----------



## Michi

And some more data: Risk of Myocarditis from COVID-19 Infection in People Under Age 20: A Population-Based Analysis



> Young males infected with the virus are up 6 times more likely to develop myocarditis as those who have received the vaccine.



Please keep sharing your insights @EricEricEric, they are most amusing.


----------



## tcmx3

I have my booster shot scheduled now. I dunno I'm running out of steam here to be mad at people. I just dont want my parents; one a diabetic and one a person who has been seriously ill multiple times in their life, to die. or for my younger sister to get long covid and have to live her entire adult life with the complications.

everything is about to ****ing explode though as student loan repayments will start back next month and the economy is not in a place that can afford this right now. because it's "part of getting back to normal". right now not only should we not be doing that we should be coming up with a plan to financially support the hospitality industry who are about to go through it. is it political to say it seems not to matter because we're going to get stuck with some ultra-idiot calling the shots? just an absolute failure on every level.






btw @boomchakabowwow was your college professor Ursula le Guin by chance? because that is a major plot point in The Lathe of Heaven; basically the scenario pitched is that someone asks someone to unify humanity and the "solution" was an alien invasion. Great book, weird book, but great.


----------



## EricEricEric

The mRNA vaccine doesn’t prevent you from being infected with the virus. Best case scenario is that it reduces the effects but that seems to be rather debatable

I also want to add in the fact that we were told that the vaccinations were supposed to be 95% effective, what happened to that?

On top of that all the pharmaceutical companies do not want to release the research data and findings for those vaccinations, they don’t want the information to be released for 50 to 75 years for some strange reason…

Everytime there’s a new variant there’s a new breakthrough and the only solution seems to be more vaccinations and lockdowns which have performed incredibly poorly

Even if you get the vaccination you can still spread the virus to other people, no matter how many times you get the vaccination

Vaccinations are ineffective for mutating viruses

It’s been two years of this, and this year was even worse than the first year when there was no vaccination

Infinite vaccinations isn’t going to solve anything at any point, infinite lockdowns isn’t going to solve anything at any point, all the cloth over your face all the time isn’t going to solve anything either

What’s the definition of madness


----------



## tcmx3

EricEricEric said:


> The mRNA vaccine doesn’t prevent you from being infected with the virus. Best case scenario is that it reduces the effects but that seems to be rather debatable
> 
> *it does reduce your likelihood of getting it. and it does reduce effects. it is only debateable in the sense that there's a limit to what causal statistics can say. you are not offering an alternative that has an equivalent amount of statistical power behind it, rather from my perspective you are overplaying the margins.*
> 
> Everytime there’s a new variant there’s a new breakthrough and the only solution seems to be more vaccinations and lockdowns which have performed incredibly poorly
> 
> *well yes that is the response, but the vaccines and lockdowns havent been poor performers. quite the opposite actually.*
> 
> Even if you get the vaccination you can still spread the virus to other people, no matter how many times you get the vaccination
> 
> *true, all the more reason to wear masks and practice social distancing until we kill it dead*
> 
> Vaccinations are ineffective for mutating viruses
> 
> *that's not been the case with covid. and I think even if I were to accept your premise, it wouldnt invalidate the reasons for getting a vaccine at all. better to be protected against what you can then roll the dice on any of the variants.*
> 
> It’s been two years of this, and this year was even worse than the first year when there was no vaccination
> 
> *anti-viral spreading measures were far more stringent in year one, and by the way I want to point out that it's only worse now in the demographic that was least impacted before. to say that it's "worse" now I think ignores how many BIPOC folks died just because now omicron is now starting to ring up a body count in a different demo*
> 
> Infinite vaccinations isn’t going to solve anything at any point, infinite lockdowns isn’t going to solve anything at any point, all the cloth over your face all the time isn’t going to solve anything either
> 
> *mitigation is a fine thing to try even if we can't solve it. no different than seat belt laws not "solving" traffic deaths*
> 
> What’s the definition of madness
> *
> you know if you have ever dealt with someone who has a real mental illness, and I mean one of the nasty ones like diagnosed schizophrenia, horrible PTSD, depression so severe the person swallowed a gun, maybe this would ring as hollow to you as it does to me. and if you have and it doesn't, I dont know what to say. I have tons of it in my family and I don't think it's really on the same level as people trying to stay safe by getting a booster.
> 
> also this quote is mad apocryphal anyway. *



response in bold


----------



## rob

@EricEricEric 
In a post earlier today you stated.
"It looks like Covid is starting to burn itself out,"
Now you are saying.
"It’s been two years of this, and this year was even worse than the first year when there was no vaccination"
Please help me understand your point.


----------



## McMan

Your claim:


EricEricEric said:


> ...even if you have the vaccination you can just as readily pass the virus along or even at a greater rate than a person that’s asymptomatic.


Please explain how vaccinated people spread covid "at a greater rate than a [unvaccinated] person that’s asymptomatic".


----------



## Barmoley

One of the issues we might see very soon is that being vaccinated seems to give people false sense of security and confidence that the "cold" they have is not covid, so they don't test and behave like it's just a cold so spread it around. This is no different from asymptomatic people since they don't know they are carriers anyway. The boosters seem to work against the latest variant to some degree, at least that's what the latest data seems to indicate. The main question right now will be how severe omicron gets for vaccinated and unvaccinated. Since it seems to infect all to a high degree, it is unlikely we will catch up with it. We couldn't convince everyone to vaccinate so convincing people to boost will be even less successful.


----------



## juice

EricEricEric said:


> It looks like Covid is starting to burn itself out, doesn’t look like the mRNA vaccines were very effective either along with the masks and lockdowns


I'd just like to thank you for providing so many laughs in this thread, it's been great. #DunningKrugerPersonified


----------



## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> On top of that all the pharmaceutical companies do not want to release the research data and findings for those vaccinations, they don’t want the information to be released for 50 to 75 years for some strange reason…


And, as usual, no source.



EricEricEric said:


> Vaccinations are ineffective for mutating viruses


You really don't get it, do you? The vaccines are not ineffective. Someone who is vaccinated is 10 times less likely to be hospitalised, and 16 times less likely to die. How many dead people do you think we would have by now if it were not for the vaccine?

Even with Omicron, the existing vaccines do provide protection against severe disease. And, before you point it out, I am aware that protection is not perfect.

Yes, the virus mutates. So what else is new? We've known that viruses mutate for decades.


EricEricEric said:


> Infinite vaccinations isn’t going to solve anything at any point, infinite lockdowns isn’t going to solve anything at any point, all the cloth over your face all the time isn’t going to solve anything either


Sure thing. We'll just all take our masks off, stop getting vaccinated, and pretend that all is well. So that we can watch people die by the millions instead of by the tens of thousands. What a most excellent idea! I'm sure the economy won't notice millions of people going missing…


----------



## EricEricEric

It’s concerning that the UK keeps having all these issues with such incredibly high vaccination rates masks and etc. The people being hospitalized are vaccinated, not promising at all


Scotland has vaccinated 91% of those aged 12 and over with at least one dose, while Wales has reached 90%, England 89% and Northern Ireland 87%. 

Second doses are also being rolled out, with all nations reaching about 80% of over-12s so far.









Covid vaccine: How many people are vaccinated in the UK?


A look at progress made in vaccinating the country, as more than 52 million people have received at least one dose and 38 million have had a booster or third dose.



www.bbc.com


----------



## Michi

How many times does this need to be said? The vaccines are not that good at preventing infection with Omicron. They are still quite good at preventing severe illness though.

The vaccines do not prevent all illness. Hence, with 90% of people vaccinated, it is no surprise that many of the hospital cases are vaccinated. Heck, what do you expect when hardly anyone unvaccinated is left?

Have you ever asked yourself how many people would be in hospital if we had no vaccines? I’m guessing that you haven’t.


----------



## spaceconvoy

What are y'all expecting? That he'll just say, "Oh gosh, I never thought of it that way, you completely changed my mind!" Then again, what am I expecting... I'll try to imagine these sisyphean comments as happy.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Personable responsibility is a big part of the equation. Wearing a mask indoors in public areas. 

In Asia it's looked at as normal if someone chooses to wear a mask. Washing your hands before touching your face. Another reason a mask works. For almost two years we we have
had public indoor mask mandate. Any store kids at school. Even the tourist just go with the
flow.


----------



## M1k3

"But the mask doesn't really protect myself from getting it."

No ****! But it does protect you from spreading it to me. You know, personal responsibility and all.


----------



## Michi

M1k3 said:


> personal responsibility


What's that? Could you introduce me?


----------



## Noxion

tcmx3 said:


> I have my booster shot scheduled now.



I've received it already. (40 years old). 3x BioNTech (mRNA)
The first shot: 3 days of severe local muscular pain
second one: local sensitivity on pressure 
third: no pain or sensitivity; however, severe chill during the night; I needed three blankets to stay warm during the night. I almost froze since the body temperature regulation went askew. 

The problem is that the current "vaccine" is based on the original viral strain. Now we have Omicron, which is a mix of all the mutated viral strains that came after the original. Three shots of mRNA can therefore offer only a partial immunity. Which in turn means that the infection will spread (especially since Omicron is highly transmissible), lots of people will suffer from a severe infection and all those that are more at risk (for various medical reasons) will be without any real surety. 
Two shots of mRNA are barely any protection and the share of the population with 3 shots is very low; which means a huge epidemic wave and hospitals than can offer only the emergency care (which has a huge impact on all other not Covid patients).

Have in mind that most of the world does not have access to mRNA "vaccines". China? 
International trade and supply issues are a certainty. The economy might tank.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Medical grade mask, I wear glasses. After touching door knobs or other things at different types of stores, I wipe the steering wheel, shifter knob & my hands with disinfect 
gel. Then I take off my mask. 

In two years no cough, congestion, nothing.

Before Covid would get sick at least once a year taking no precaution. Early on when read about persons who got Sars could have permanent lung damage, and other medical problems because of the virus we took it serious. 

Being seniors why take the risk. Don't take breathing for granted even if an old fart


----------



## Michi

Influenza deaths in Australia were at 1,181 in 2017, 148 in 2018, and 902 in 2019. In 2020, we had 36 deaths, and in 2021, zero deaths.









newsGP - Flu-zero: More than a year since Australia’s last flu death


The absence of influenza in the community has been described as ‘amazing’, but it is also making planning for next year difficult.




www1.racgp.org.au





In 2019, we had 313,033 cases. In 2020, there were fewer than 20,000 cases. In 2021 (up until August), there were 484.









It's official: Flu did 'basically disappear' this year


Before COVID-19 arrived, the number of influenza cases was soaring above 300,000 a year but, this year there were fewer than 500 cases.




www.abc.net.au





That's all because masks and social distancing don't work.


----------



## MarcelNL

Madness is repeating and spreading arguments that are not fact checked.

Nothing personal but 'm growing tired of hearing the same 'challenge everything' nonsense that is regurgitated over and over, and always without any serious data reference or the person repeating it doubting any of the statements.

A while ago someone sent me an 'alarming' video he received from god knows what source in which the FDA panel unanimously decided against boosters because they were 'dangerous'....it's an 8 hour or so session on YT....a minor oversight was that there were no data to make any decision on, status of the data was two weeks into the first booster study in Israel...slides with conclusions saying 'at this point the data do not support a decision to start boostering'

One or two FDA panel sessions later, at that point to be found on YT too; a unanimous vote FOR booster shots with good safety data.


----------



## MarcelNL

Keith Sinclair said:


> Medical grade mask, I wear glasses. After touching door knobs or other things at different types of stores, I wipe the steering wheel, shifter knob & my hands with disinfect
> gel. Then I take off my mask.
> 
> In two years no cough, congestion, nothing.
> 
> Before Covid would get sick at least once a year taking no precaution. Early on when read about persons who got Sars could have permanent lung damage, and other medical problems because of the virus we took it serious.
> 
> Being seniors why take the risk. Don't take breathing for granted even if an old fart



Good for you!

If it were not for a 5 year old in the house I'm pretty sure we'd also gone without any cold, flu or otherwise.
(right now I'm still deaf in one ear from a hand-me-down upper airway infection)


----------



## MarcelNL

M1k3 said:


> "But the mask doesn't really protect myself from getting it."
> 
> No ****! But it does protect you from spreading it to me. You know, personal responsibility and all.



I dare say that a decent mask when used properly (great word BTW) protects wearer and others at the same time...problem with masks is that they are used for way too long at a time and many DIY masks have questionable filter capacity to begin with. If all people would pay attention to good mask hygiene and replace/desinfect them often enough their effectiveness would increase quite substantially. Especially now with Omikron on the loose!


----------



## Noxion

It's all about activism. 
Mass migrations to Europe; open borders movement. Green agenda; let's shut down nuclear, no burning anything. id the sun shines and wind blows there is electricity, otherwise you leave the work and go home. Electric cars; cost doesn't matter: even better, use carts as in middle ages. Yet, all these activists expect to leave a comfortable life with everything the modern world has to offer; the "state" will pay for it. 
Now that France had to shut down a few modern nuclear power plants due to technical problems and the electricity price has gone supernova, Germany is also permanently closing 3 nuclear plants at the end of December, the activitist will have a feast. Electric cars and heat pumps are a must. 

Same pattern with the anti Covid crowd.
I tried to explain to a few people with university degrees in engineering why the mRNA platform is far better than the old vaccines. My comment at the end of the talk?
In Victorian era the people thought you could call ghost to manifest with electricity and bring dead to life.


----------



## tcmx3

Noxion said:


> It's all about activism.
> Mass migrations to Europe; open borders movement. Green agenda; let's shut down nuclear, no burning anything. id the sun shines and wind blows there is electricity, otherwise you leave the work and go home. Electric cars; cost doesn't matter: even better, use carts as in middle ages. Yet, all these activists expect to leave a comfortable life with everything the modern world has to offer; the "state" will pay for it.
> Now that France had to shut down a few modern nuclear power plants due to technical problems and the electricity price has gone supernova, Germany is also permanently closing 3 nuclear plants at the end of December, the activitist will have a feast. Electric cars and heat pumps are a must.
> 
> Same pattern with the anti Covid crowd.
> I tried to explain to a few people with university degrees in engineering why the mRNA platform is far better than the old vaccines. My comment at the end of the talk?
> In Victorian era the people thought you could call ghost to manifest with electricity and bring dead to life.



my guy no comment on any position but you literally just listed a ton of completely unrelated topics not only to covid but to each other and you're really giving off this sort of vibe


----------



## Noxion

tcmx3 said:


> my guy no comment on any position but you literally just listed a ton of completely unrelated topics not only to covid but to each other and you're really giving off this sort of vibe



The personal profiles of many of those involved in listed activism follow certain general traits. What topic did a certain activist choose as his field of action is of course different / unrelated. There were some published articles regarding this very topic in Germany. The public secrity forces also profiled and found a pattern of behavior. 

As for your picture; order is making sense of what seems like chaos.


----------



## MarcelNL

@Noxion ; As much as I believe what you say about similar traits across activists I too fail to see how all of the areas you mention have more in common than activism in some form playing a role.

'professional activism does exist, similar to 'full time' rioters, and for sure there likely is some cross contamination (pun intended) yet the majority of self acclaimed anti vaxxers are people who distrust government and or pharma and hesitate to get vaccinated.

Our mind is very good at connecting dots, even where there are none...I try to be cautious of making order in what might well just be chaos


----------



## daveb

Ntxt


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> Ntxt



this would work a lot better if it were a minion IMO


----------



## dAtron

EricEricEric said:


> It’s concerning that the UK keeps having all these issues with such incredibly high vaccination rates masks and etc. The people being hospitalized are vaccinated, not promising at all
> 
> 
> Scotland has vaccinated 91% of those aged 12 and over with at least one dose, while Wales has reached 90%, England 89% and Northern Ireland 87%.
> 
> Second doses are also being rolled out, with all nations reaching about 80% of over-12s so far.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid vaccine: How many people are vaccinated in the UK?
> 
> 
> A look at progress made in vaccinating the country, as more than 52 million people have received at least one dose and 38 million have had a booster or third dose.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com



We haven't had any issues since last January. 

Omicron seems to be concerning at the moment because it is not affected by the astrazeneca vaccine and a majority of our population is vaccinated with that. It spreads at least twice faster than delta and it can reinfect people who already had a previous infections with other variant. Having said that the omicron hotspot is London and our national hospitalisation rate is manageable at the moment. 

One thing is for sure is that vaccines have broken the link between infection and hospitalisation. Last year at the highest daily infection rate, daily hospitalisations were at approx 4k mark now they are at the 900 mark.

You can find more information about omicron in the Uk in technical briefings 31 and 32 in the link below.






Investigation of SARS-CoV-2 variants: technical briefings


Technical briefing documents on novel SARS-CoV-2 variants.




www.gov.uk


----------



## tcmx3

ok when I say this I am just an angry anonymous person on the internet. when the white house says it it's a problem:






(yes this is real). the **** is this? hello you are supposed to be the president of the US not the president of the vaccinated US.


----------



## M1k3

tcmx3 said:


> ok when I say this I am just an angry anonymous person on the internet. when the white house says it it's a problem:
> 
> View attachment 156966
> 
> 
> (yes this is real). the **** is this? hello you are supposed to be the president of the US not the president of the vaccinated US.


I don't know what to say. I mean, unvaccinated. If you catch covid, no matter the strain, you'll probably get sick. Which sucks. And if severe enough, hospitalized. Or die. Which for the unvaccinated is more likely. Not sure what in the statement is so polarizing?

"How dare the White House not sugar coat the pandemic?"


----------



## MarcelNL

is it for real? I mean, it cannot be...can it? Show me the link so I can see for myself if this is the next POTUS gone mad

Edit: I now see where it came from, it was a PART of a speech, and in that context I see little wrong with it as it is quite factual.








Remarks by President Biden After Meeting with Members of the COVID-19 Response Team | The White House


Roosevelt Room 4:48 P.M. EST THE PRESIDENT: Folks, I'm not going to take questions today because I have a direct message to the American




www.whitehouse.gov


----------



## M1k3

MarcelNL said:


> is it for real? I mean, it cannot be...can it? Show me the link so I can see for myself if this is the next POTUS gone mad
> 
> Edit: I now see where it came from, it was a PART of a speech, and in that context I see little wrong with it as it is quite factual.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Remarks by President Biden After Meeting with Members of the COVID-19 Response Team | The White House
> 
> 
> Roosevelt Room 4:48 P.M. EST THE PRESIDENT: Folks, I'm not going to take questions today because I have a direct message to the American
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.whitehouse.gov


Even then, it's not a statement of "No jab? **** off and die."


----------



## tcmx3

MarcelNL said:


> is it for real? I mean, it cannot be...can it? Show me the link so I can see for myself if this is the next POTUS gone mad
> 
> Edit: I now see where it came from, it was a PART of a speech, and in that context I see little wrong with it as it is quite factual.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Remarks by President Biden After Meeting with Members of the COVID-19 Response Team | The White House
> 
> 
> Roosevelt Room 4:48 P.M. EST THE PRESIDENT: Folks, I'm not going to take questions today because I have a direct message to the American
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.whitehouse.gov



I read the rest of it.

I am unconvinced. First of all, I'll agree to put aside matters of whether or not other folks will see the whole context (because I did because I verified it) for a minute. I just want to focus on the messaging here. For all of the people arguing that scolding convinces people to act a certain way, I dont normally agree, but we're just talking about person to person stuff here. When an administration that is trying to get everyone vaccinated does this, it's reprehensible.

Furthermore:

IDGAF about the "economy" or "normalcy" and saying that's why we should be getting vaccinated instead of, I dunno, THE IMMENSE HUMAN COST?! is awful
What is the administration doing for people who dont have cushy office jobs where they can just stroll down to the Walgreens and get their shot? You know at my gig if someone feels under the weather from their booster they just take the day off. Just let your manager know, no big deal. Great, what about the people working retail? Food service? The US is mostly at-will; you could be fired just for insisting you take the time off to get the booster much less recover.
People still don't believe it's "free" because things in the US arent free. "Free" tests here means you buy them (they are very expensive btw) and you submit a reimbursement claim to your private insurer. That's not free. My time is valuable, and also many people in the US cant afford the costs of the tests. That's why the lines in NYC and DC today are hours long for on-site testing. Many Americans cant afford these. The administration is not only not doing anything to mitigate this, this is their plan. Congrats, profits for the insurers and manufactures and maybe people just wont get tested. Cool.


----------



## tcmx3

M1k3 said:


> I don't know what to say. I mean, unvaccinated. If you catch covid, no matter the strain, you'll probably get sick. Which sucks. And if severe enough, hospitalized. Or die. Which for the unvaccinated is more likely. Not sure what in the statement is so polarizing?
> *
> "How dare the White House not sugar coat the pandemic?"*



Im not asking the white house to sugar coat the pandemic.

What Im saying is that you have a duty as president to act at a higher standard than normal people. I outlined my thoughts on why I think this is heinously tone deaf in the context of how this administration is handling covid. If you still disagree that's fine and again I really think it's ok for social pressure from individuals I just dont buy into the idea that as long as the people suffering "deserve it" they really ought to suffer you know?


----------



## MarcelNL

M1k3 said:


> Even then, it's not a statement of "No jab? **** off and die."


True, yet it would be a bit blunt to issue a statement saying Omocron is here and we'll protect the economy and schools for all vaccinated folks but F^%& all the unvaccinated.

It's illustrative of how propaganda works though, take a snippet of information and spin it ever so subtle...


rest of the message: If anything you can fault him for slightly poor public reading skills

"But there’s good news: If you’re vaccinated and you had your booster shot, you’re protected from severe illness and death — period. 

Number two, booster shots work. 

Three, boosters are free, safe, and convenient. 

About 60 million people have one — have been boosted. So, go get your shot today. Go get boosted if you’ve had your first two shots. If you haven’t, go get your first shot. It’s time. It’s time. It’s past time. 

And we’re going to protect our economic recovery if we do this. We’re going to keep schools and businesses open if we do this. And I want to see everyone around enjoy that. I want to see them enjoy the fact that they’re able to be in school, that businesses are open and the holidays are coming. 

So, get your booster shot. It’s critically important. 

And if you haven’t — if you haven’t gotten your booster shot, get your first shot. We’re in a situation where we have 83 percent of the American people who’ve gotten one shot — 12 years and older. Four hundred thousand shots per day now. Two hundred and two are fully vacc- — two hundred and two million are fully vaccinated. 

Fifty-seven -– excuse me –- five hundred and seventy –- excuse me –- I don’t want to read -– I’m not sure I got the right number. The — the total number of boosters is what? 

DR. FAUCI: Fifty-seven million.

THE PRESIDENT: Fifty-seven million boosters — one million a day. 

So — but the whole point is: Omicron is here, it’s going to start to spread much more rapidly in the beginning of the year, and the only real protection is to get your shots. If you get one shot — if you haven’t gotten it yet — it’ll help. 

If you’re at a point where you have everything, including your booster, you’re in really good shape. 

So, move now. Move now. 

Thank you all very much. '


----------



## MarcelNL

tcmx3 said:


> Im not asking the white house to sugar coat the pandemic.
> 
> What Im saying is that you have a duty as president to act at a higher standard than normal people. I outlined my thoughts on why I think this is heinously tone deaf in the context of how this administration is handling covid. If you still disagree that's fine and again I really think it's ok for social pressure from individuals I just dont buy into the idea that as long as the people suffering "deserve it" they really ought to suffer you know?



The administration is offering vaccines, there is no 'deserve to suffer'in any part of the statement, it is an open invitation with a bit of a strong nudge to get vaccinated...which IMO is perfectly spot on in the light of Omicron.


----------



## tcmx3

MarcelNL said:


> The administration is offering vaccines, there is no 'deserve to suffer'in any part of the statement, it is an open invitation with a bit of a strong nudge to get vaccinated...which IMO is perfectly spot on in the light of Omicron.



I think you're being charitable here. I can't say you're wrong, only that I disagree. I think this is the sort of messaging that nominally we were supposed to be getting away from, in favor of more "practical" solutions.

We are all mad. I've not hidden how much distaste I have for the people who could safely get vaxxed and haven't, and that I think they are in fact responsible for a lot of what's happening.

That said, it is my personal opinion that it is not the role of the government to engage in this sort of thing. Every day it becomes more apparent that the new boss is the literal exact same as the old boss.

And you will agree, will you not, that the way I posted it (which yes is only one part of it) is the way it's going to get messaged EVERYWHERE right?


----------



## MarcelNL

You cannot hold 'the government' responsible for the situation of people who have and had the option to get vaccinated for a year now but refused, whatever their motivation may be and IMO also not for the attempt to convince people to get vaccinated in the light of the very realistic scenario of a HUGE mess that is coming, and fast. Vaccination is the best safeguard against that mess, what 'practical solutions' are available? 

Yes sure your messaging will go further, as propaganda usually does go further than the original and complete information...that does not mean that it's OK to twist information out of it's context and convey it as a completely different statement.


----------



## tcmx3

MarcelNL said:


> You cannot hold 'the government' responsible for the situation of people who have and had the option to get vaccinated for a year now but refused, whatever their motivation may be and IMO also not for the attempt to convince people to get vaccinated in the light of the very realistic scenario of a HUGE mess that is coming, and fast. Vaccination is the best safeguard against that mess, what 'practical solutions' are available?
> 
> Yes sure your messaging will go further, as propaganda usually does go further than the original and complete information...that does not mean that it's OK to twist information out of it's context and convey it as a completely different statement.



I cannot agree with your calling of me suggesting the administration use less incendiary language "propaganda"

that actual propaganda is them suggesting they've done anything much at all, much less anything good. again, what is this administration doing differently from the last to try and improve the situation? restarting loan repayments? cutting off benefits to people who still needed them? oops, that's going backwards.


----------



## M1k3

tcmx3 said:


> I cannot agree with your calling of me suggesting the administration use less incendiary language "propaganda"
> 
> that actual propaganda is them suggesting they've done anything much at all, much less anything good. again, what is this administration doing differently from the last to try and improve the situation? restarting loan repayments? cutting off benefits to people who still needed them? oops, that's going backwards.


Members of both (not all of either I might add) parties?


----------



## Barmoley

tcmx3 said:


> I cannot agree with your calling of me suggesting the administration use less incendiary language "propaganda"
> 
> that actual propaganda is them suggesting they've done anything much at all, much less anything good. again, what is this administration doing differently from the last to try and improve the situation? restarting loan repayments? cutting off benefits to people who still needed them? oops, that's going backwards.


I agree. The country is divided and is getting more divided. One of the stated goals of current administration was to unite the country. This message is not helping, if anything it will polarize the country even more and reinforce antivaxer belief that the government is against them. I also think that very few will read the whole message and that the originally posted portion will be what most see. Perception is everything in politics and career politicians should know better.


----------



## Todd762

Anyone here from S Africa? I did a search and they are reporting to have peaked with the Omnicron variant. Highly transmissible but less severe than the Delta variant is what they reported. I believe their country was less than 40 percent vaccinated. In the 60+ age category they were over 60 percent vaccinated. 


I would expect a similar pattern here.


----------



## tcmx3

Barmoley said:


> I agree. The country is divided and is getting more divided. One of the stated goals of current administration was to unite the country. This message is not helping, if anything it will polarize the country even more and reinforce antivaxer belief that the government is against them. I also think that very few will read the whole message and that the originally posted portion will be what most see. Perception is everything in politics and career politicians should know better.



so Im younger than most folks here, but like, has it ever not been divided without a world war going on?

20s soaring inequality and crash, 30s depression that hit different parts of the country very differently, 40s a world war, 50s sure it looked good for some folks but segregation was still legal so gonna rule that one out, 60s obviously huge social shakeups, the 70s was just hugely acrimonious with inflation gas crises impeachment etc, the 80s had two recessions and aids, I guess the 90s was like sort of ok? wild that the gulf war decade qualifies as "the good one". 00s I was old enough to remember a before and after and holy **** was this time period dystopian in some ways, 10s horrible recession, now... lol



Todd762 said:


> Anyone here from S Africa? I did a search and they are reporting to have peaked with the Omnicron variant. Highly transmissible but less severe than the Delta variant is what they reported. I believe their country was less than 40 percent vaccinated. In the 60+ age category they were over 60 percent vaccinated.
> 
> 
> I would expect a similar pattern here.



uh do you have a source? most of the epidemiologists Im following are saying it's too early too call on severity.


----------



## Barmoley

tcmx3 said:


> so Im younger than most folks here, but like, has it ever not been divided without a world war going on?
> 
> 20s soaring inequality and crash, 30s depression that hit different parts of the country very differently, 40s a world war, 50s sure it looked good for some folks but segregation was still legal so gonna rule that one out, 60s obviously huge social shakeups, the 70s was just hugely acrimonious with inflation gas crises impeachment etc, the 80s had two recessions and aids, I guess the 90s was like sort of ok? wild that the gulf war decade qualifies as "the good one". 00s I was old enough to remember a before and after and holy **** was this time period dystopian in some ways, 10s horrible recession, now... lol
> 
> 
> 
> uh do you have a source? most of the epidemiologists Im following are saying it's too early too call on severity.


It hasn’t been this polarized in a while. Part of it, maybe a large part is social media. It’s easier to find likeminded people which makes it easier to unite against groups that think otherwise.


----------



## MarcelNL

What I hear from renowned virologists and from what I read; the situation in S Africa quite different from most other countries as the population is a lot younger than most, but let's hope it does fade out fast and without too many severely ill patients everywhere.

It should soon become more clear how we'll fare with Omicron, in the US it's 'market share' is now over 70%, hospitalizations usually peak 10-14days later


----------



## tcmx3

unclear if this belongs here or in memes. 

and I dont mean to make light exactly. even "non severe" covid is turning out to have pretty serious cognitive impacts, so I'm personally very against the idea that we all need to get it. Ive seen some work suggesting it's as bad for your cognitive capacity as pollution, something we've known we couldnt let go unchecked for 60 years now.


----------



## EricEricEric

Everyone is going to get Covid, NOTHING is going to stop that and nothing has

Everything we have been doing for the past two years just slows the spread and prolongs the time it takes to acquire majority immunity of the population with natural antibodies

All of the staff at my hospital is either newly vaccinated or have recently had their third or fourth “booster”. Yet they are still getting sick and testing positive for Covid and as a result are out for two weeks or more. Exactly the same as it was BEFORE the vaccinations were available, zero difference 

At my hospital the majority of people in intensive care are vaccinated not unvaccinated

I want to try to make this as simple easy and clear for everyone as I can, old vaccinations are NOT going to work against new mutations that is if they were even working in the first place

Since Covid has started, over TWO years ago, my vaccinated colleagues have been consistently testing positive throughout that time span and out sick

Is the virus an issue? Yes, is the virus as bad as it was being proclaimed originally? Not even close

After two years of this virus our homeless populations have not reduced to any substantial degree over any other year and they are some of the most unhealthy people with little to no medical attention

I’m going to say this one more time, in the USA around 3 million people die annually before Covid was ever even around. People die from various causes and that’s nature, 95% of people dying “from” Covid have MULTIPLE comorbidities and as a result many people are not dying because of Covid but rather die WITH Covid

The majority of people testing positive for Covid at my hospital are not originally going to the hospital for any symptoms that have to do with Covid, rather all of the patients are tested regardless and finding Covid positive it’s a SECONDARY finding, also the patients are non-symptomatic or their symptoms are very little

What’s very disturbing is we have not been testing everybody for antibodies as we know the high majority of those people infected,I’ve seen figures as high as 80%, are asymptomatic and never even knew they were infected with the virus or that they acquired the necessary antibodies


----------



## tcmx3

I dunno man my dad has diabetes and if COVID kills him Im not gonna look around and go "well he had diabetes so he didnt die of covid, he died WITH covid".

I cannot understand this line of thinking no matter how many times I hear it.


----------



## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> All of the staff at my hospital is either newly vaccinated or have recently had their third or fourth “booster”. Yet they are still getting sick and testing positive for Covid and as a result are out for two weeks or more. Exactly the same as it was BEFORE the vaccinations were available, zero difference


This position is not supported by fact. These people might still be getting sick, but the severity of their illness is much less, and a lot fewer (16 times fewer) of them die.


EricEricEric said:


> After two years of this virus our homeless populations have not reduced to any substantial degree over any other year and they are some of the most unhealthy people with little to no medical attention


What a shame. All the homeless people aren't dead yet.


EricEricEric said:


> I’m going to say this one more time, in the USA around 3 million people die annually before Covid was ever even around.


In 2021, 386,000 Americans died from Covid. But, hey, what's an extra few hundred thousand among friends?

I really do wonder about what kind of ethics you apply to this situation. They are certainly different from mine.


----------



## KingShapton

EricEricEric said:


> All of the staff at my hospital


You speak of "your hospital" - does that mean you work there ?! If so, what is your job there?

Or is it the hospital in your city? Or is it the hospital that you visit yourself as a patient?

In general, which hospital are we talking about? And are there understandable and reputable sources for your allegations? You have been asked for sources many times here, but you never mentioned any ...


----------



## Geigs

EricEricEric said:


> Everyone is going to get Covid, NOTHING is going to stop that and nothing has
> 
> BLAH BLAH BLAH



Dude you are being either wilfully ignorant, or are just plain ignorant. There are some very easy to find facts about Covid death rates in vaccinated and unvaccinated people (SPOILER ALERT: you are 20x more likely to die if you're not vaccinated). Over 800K dead in the US, but sure, it's not that bad and they probably would have died anyway because they were old, or sick. I'm sure you are a wonderful, compassionate person.


----------



## JDA_NC

KingShapton said:


> You speak of "your hospital" - does that mean you work there ?! If so, what is your job there?



Likely IT or in some sort of administrative capacity. Notice how he never mentions patients and never talks about his medical training?

He only mentions that he works in a hospital because he feels it gives his inane chatter some sort of credibility.


----------



## MarcelNL

some early news that seems to confirm higher infectiousness and likely lower severity:








Early studies suggest a reduced risk of Covid-19 hospitalization when infected with Omicron compared to Delta


Two new preprint papers add to the growing evidence that the Omicron coronavirus variant may be less likely to cause severe disease and hospitalization compared to the Delta variant.




edition.cnn.com


----------



## KingShapton

JDA_NC said:


> Likely IT or in some sort of administrative capacity. Notice how he never mentions patients and never talks about his medical training?
> 
> He only mentions that he works in a hospital because he feels it gives his inane chatter some sort of credibility.


Yes, I noticed that. That was one of the reasons for my question.

And after, as expected, there was no answer to my question, just as other people's questions about its sources were ignored, I now use the "ignore function".

People who believe that their assertions become truer through constant repetition without even wanting to name a source and ignore questions for a source or ignore questions for details about their assertions consistently are not worth my time!

More precisely, such a person wastes my time. I welcome any serious contribution to the discussion and any reputable source of information on this serious topic, regardless of the opinion expressed. But I am happy to forego posts that are only supposed to spread unfounded crap.


----------



## tcmx3

encouraging-ish news re severity









New U.K. Study Reinforces Conclusion That Omicron Causes Less Severe Disease


The study found people infected with the Omicron variant are between 50% to 70% less likely to be hospitalized, adding to a body of evidence of Omicron’s reduced severity in populations with high levels of Covid immunity.




www.wsj.com





Ill quote some relevant pieces though before we get too excited. BTW if you let this talk you out of a (free) booster you need to re-check your cost/benefit thinking



> The agency cautioned its findings are preliminary and based on a small number of hospitalized cases. It also said it may be underestimating the risk of admission because few cases have yet been detected in older, more vulnerable age groups.
> 
> In a less encouraging finding, the agency said the effectiveness of a booster dose in warding off mild symptoms of Omicron appears to wane over time, though it said boosters should still protect against severe disease.
> 
> The agency said that after 10 weeks, vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease after a third dose of the vaccine developed by Pfizer Inc. and Germany’s BioNTech SE dropped to 45%, from 70% previously, in those who received Pfizer as their primary two-dose course.
> 
> In those who received a Pfizer booster after two doses of AstraZeneca’s vaccine, effectiveness after 10 weeks dropped to 35% from 60%. The vaccine developed by Moderna Inc. held up better as a booster among those who received either Pfizer or AstraZeneca for their primary course.


----------



## rickbern

As @Michi mentioned, not supported by the facts.

A new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report says that the death rate in the U.S. went up dramatically in 2020 compared to the previous year, prompting the biggest drop in life expectancy seen in decades.

Many of those deaths were caused directly or indirectly by COVID-19 — but the U.S. was lagging behind other developed countries in health outcomes long before the pandemic hit.

*Fast facts*

The overall mortality rate of the U.S. went up by nearly 17% last year.
That corresponds to a drop in life expectancy of 1.8 years.
All age groups 15 and older saw a rise in deaths last year.
Ten percent of all deaths were due to COVID-19, making it the third largest cause of death in the country.
There was also a rise in deaths from other causes, like heart disease, stroke and unintentional injuries like drug overdoses.
The rise in deaths were significantly higher for Hispanic and Black populationscompared to white people.
The drop in U.S. life expectancy is the largest single-year decrease in more than 75 years.


----------



## chefwp

HystericHystericHysteric, people are not so much dying of Covid-19 these days as they are dying of acting on misinformation <or failing to act>, misinformation that is being spread by certain members of this community. That's a damn shame. I can't say much more than that as I am really out of patience with the willfully ignorant.

I'm only for freedom of speech to a point. When speech is unsubstantiated nonsense that could be detrimental to naive individuals it should be SHUT DOWN.


----------



## Luftmensch

rickbern said:


> The drop in U.S. life expectancy is the largest single-year decrease in more than 75 years.



Yikes!  

Interesting.... I had never thought about it that way.... of course a pandemic would do that.


----------



## Luftmensch

tcmx3 said:


> a (free) *booster*



I am not picking on you @tcmx3, I am just using your post for illustration... and hopefully to reinforce it. Another way of thinking about the vaccines is what I said back in September:



Luftmensch said:


> Remember the vaccines are new. We are still trying to optimise their efficacy (e.g. time between doses). It may turn out that these are three dose vaccines (like hepatitis B or human papilloma virus). Maybe we do have to keep getting seasonal boosters like the Flu-shot.



History will tell how to optimally use these vaccines. For now, it may be worth encouraging people to think about the vaccines as a three dose course. In other words, _if_ you haven't had your third shot, you are _not_ fully vaccinated.


----------



## Greasylake

If y'all are interested in the history of vaccines (which I think some people here might be) I highly recommend checking out this podcast. It's about the history of smallpox, the adoption of inoculation and the development of the first vaccine. It's really interesting to hear about the reasons people resisted the early vaccines, and seeing how much they parallel with modern times. Even how governments back in the day used many of the same methods to encourage and enforce vaccinations that they do today, and the effects of those regulations.


----------



## stringer

The omicron origin story looks like the next major twist in this fiasco.

Did it mutate inside an immuno suppressed person?
Reverse zoonosis?
Viral recombination?
Or I'm sure there will be many other super plausible theories on Facebook.


----------



## tcmx3

Luftmensch said:


> I am not picking on you @tcmx3, I am just using your post for illustration... and hopefully to reinforce it. Another way of thinking about the vaccines is what I said back in September:
> 
> 
> 
> History will tell how to optimally use these vaccines. For now, it may be worth encouraging people to think about the vaccines as a three dose course. In other words, _if_ you haven't had your third shot, you are _not_ fully vaccinated.



Im not opposed to your framing, however legally speaking it's a booster & I had to wait until 1. I was allowed to schedule one and 2. I could find a slot.

also it's not _really_ free but for people like me who can just do a flex day easily and have a center <10 mins from my house, it's close enough.


----------



## Luftmensch

tcmx3 said:


> however legally speaking it's a booster



Agreed.

I am thinking out loud... just wondering if given a year or more data, the third booster will be drawn into the _primary_ schedule. Maybe yes; maybe no... probably not. I also wonder if countries will adjust what it means to be fully vaccinated? Unless the drug schedule changes, I doubt this will change either.

Australia has reached ~91% double-dose vaccination (16+). It will be interesting to see how high the third booster shot reaches. I anticipate the ACT will reach near complete booster vaccination. Probably Tasmania as well.... NSW and VIC will be high... but I fear pandemic fatigue and a little skepticism will mean less boosters are administered. Hopefully we can get higher than 85%... It will be interesting to observe social attitudes to this. So far, my network has been proactive and arranged their boosters...


----------



## MarcelNL

now it"s official ;-)








Why you should upgrade your mask as the Omicron variant spreads | CNN


As the Omicron variant spreads, it's time to upgrade from your cloth face masks. Experts explain why medical-grade masks -- such as surgical/disposable masks and N95 and KN95 respirators -- are better options now and what people should do with the cloth masks they already have.




edition.cnn.com


----------



## rickbern

MarcelNL said:


> now it"s official ;-)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Why you should upgrade your mask as the Omicron variant spreads | CNN
> 
> 
> As the Omicron variant spreads, it's time to upgrade from your cloth face masks. Experts explain why medical-grade masks -- such as surgical/disposable masks and N95 and KN95 respirators -- are better options now and what people should do with the cloth masks they already have.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> edition.cnn.com


Now you tell me; I just upgraded from cloth masks to surgical.

Honestly, I haven't been following this thread so religiously, not sure if he's been mentioned already, but this guy is kinda as to masks as @Larrin is to kitchen knife steels









Why We Need to Upgrade Our Face Masks—and Where to Get Them


High-quality respirators such as N95s and KN95s are now widely available and provide the best protection against COVID, according to experts. Why aren’t more people wearing them?




www.scientificamerican.com


----------



## Barmoley

It's futile on a large scale in the US. People can barely wear surgical masks correctly. N95 are more expensive, harder to get and harder to breath in. I am just hoping that omicron is truly less dangerous, because it is very contagious for sure.


----------



## rickbern

Barmoley said:


> It's futile on a large scale in the US. People can barely wear surgical masks correctly. N95 are more expensive, harder to get and harder to breath in. I am just hoping that omicron is truly less dangerous, because it is very contagious for sure.


Depends what you do for a living. If I was working front of house in a restaurant or stocking shelves in a trader joes I'd put up with the N95


----------



## daveb

You would. There's a gillion others.

Science question: Are the Delta (Wuhan 4.0) and Omni (Wuhan 5.0) more contagious or are they spreading more rapidly because people are taking less precautions than with previous?


----------



## MarcelNL

It"s not futile for you if you can handle it...if the folks who can handle a fase mask properly would do so it'd matter.


----------



## MarcelNL

daveb said:


> You would. There's a gillion others.
> 
> Science question: Are the Delta (Wuhan 4.0) and Omni (Wuhan 5.0) more contagious or are they spreading more rapidly because people are taking less precautions than with previous?




These are truly more infectious, just look at the vast numbers of new infections the UK amassed last week (>100.000), and the measures have been scaled down for months now.


----------



## dAtron

daveb said:


> You would. There's a gillion others.
> 
> Science question: Are the Delta (Wuhan 4.0) and Omni (Wuhan 5.0) more contagious or are they spreading more rapidly because people are taking less precautions than with previous?



6 times more infectious than the initial wuhan strain and in the uk and south africa it infected the same number of people as delta but in less than half the time it took delta to do so.


----------



## Doug

In Hawaii we went from a 7 day average of around 100 cases a day three weeks ago to a pandemic record of 1,828 cases today. It appears that the combination of Omicron and holiday gatherings are a terrible confluence of events. My thoughts and compassion go out to all victims of this Pandemic .


----------



## LostHighway

I've been wearing N95 or FDA EUA approved KN95 masks when in retail establishments since last fall. The slight loss of breathability is, IMO, only a minor issue. Most of the cloth or surgical masks I see on the public have huge gaps, probably making them as much or more theater than functional. The U of WI designed the Badger Seal mask frame that demonstrably improves mask fit. There are other designs out there with the same goal. Good mask quality and fit may not be a huge issue for the PMC who can afford a steady stream of home deliveries and may be able to work from home but the less advantaged who make those deliveries possible are in a far less privileged position.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Too many of us malajusted bipedal monkey's
anyway. Crowding out other wild animal species. Then there are all the worthless drug addicts & old people not in the workforce anymore. Need thinning out. Oops  old that's
Me.


----------



## Barmoley

I am not saying they are not effective. I am saying in the US people will not wear them in the majority. Of course some will and some have been wearing them all along, but in the main people won't wear them.

Omicron is more contagious. It is also infecting vaccinated, so it will hit more people. In LA county we had close to 10000 case today. This is a huge undercount because many people don't even test if they are fully vaccinated. Many test at home, so the real cases are much higher.


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## Luftmensch

A little bit of proportionality. Read the CDC guidelines for yourself. Quote, emphasis mine:



> When supplies are available, individuals *may choose* to use a basic disposable N95 respirator for personal use, instead of a mask, in *some situations*.



The CDC are *not* recommending everybody always wear N95. They are relaxing the advice because there are no longer fears that N95 masks are in short supply. Wear N95 if you wish.

The article @rickbern posted is also good to read. Quote, emphasis mine:



> The Mask Nerd’s top picks can be found in this video. In general, he recommends KN95s made by Chinese company Powecom and others, a variety of KF94s such as the Bluna FaceFit and N95s made by reputable brands such as 3M, Moldex or Honeywell. All of these masks had close to 99 percent filtration efficiencies and fairly low pressure drops in Collins’s setup. (*For comparison, he found that a surgical mask alone had between about 50 and 75 percent filtration efficiency, depending on the fit, and a good cloth mask had about 70 percent*.) But when choosing the best mask, comfort should be a deciding factor, he says. *Not everyone needs to wear an N95*.




Dont lose perspective. Yes; N95 offers better protection. We always knew that. Cloth or surgical masks with a good fit also offer protection. Far more protection than not wearing a mask. Lets not let 'perfect be the enemy of the good'. 


A post note on masks. They are essential in stymying the spread of the disease. Zero question about that... But they are not a substitute for behavioural modifications either. Remember:

Avoid unnecessary social contact (crowds)
Prefer (insist on) well ventilated spaces
Observe social distancing
Often we cant choose to do these things. Nor do we want to become hermits. But being mindful about these measures and implementing them as often as you can protects yourself and the community (whether using good or bad mask).


----------



## Luftmensch

Barmoley said:


> I am just hoping that omicron is truly less dangerous, because it is very contagious for sure.



Early indications are that omicron is less dangerous. But yes, faster spread and greater numbers could 'cancel that out' and still strain hospitals.


----------



## Barmoley

At the moment the issue is that health workers are in short supply since they get sick and need to quarantine. So much so that CDC just announced that health care workers can quarantine for 7 days instead of 10 for the rest. I understand why they say this, but it is also pretty ridiculous to have different length of quarantine depending on the job. It creates more confusion amd undermines CDC’s messages. As is CDC‘s flip flopping made many not trust it. Before someone tries to explain that they had reasons to say what they did, I get it, but it doesn’t help to build confidence in their messages among general public.


----------



## daveb

Barmoley said:


> At the moment the issue is that health workers are in short supply since so many have been termed or threatened with being termed, they left the profession....



Took the liberty of "fixing" that for you.  

In the real world my company threatened termination to non-vax, was supposed to happen Dec 5. The last week before they blinked but they still lost an easy third of the hourly workers and probably 20% of management. My facility is still accepting new patients but many in the area are not, there's simply not the staff available to maintain ratios. 

Workers have seen Covid spread apparently at random. There is absolutely no confidence that masks even work and there is little buy in on vaccines. When theory meets reality, reality usually trumps.

The only thing I'm convinced of is that there are no easy answers. Yes I trust science, science that stands to peer review, science that can be challenged, science that can be predictive. Science that is espoused by "scientists" with skin in the game, not so much.

Agree that reducing the quarantine time because of staff shortages only makes sense in another universe but it seems like someone is trying to find the clean end of a turd.


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> When theory meets reality, reality usually trumps.



that's fine but characterizing the mountain of empirical evidence re masks and vaccines as "theory" is pretty laughable

I know you dont mean theory in the scientific method sense either.


----------



## Barmoley

You could make an argument that since there are somewhat few numbers of healthcare workers and if 7 days is enough for a high percentage of people not to be contagious then it is ok. Allowing everyone to quarantine for only 7 days, you will have more of edge cases where more of the recovered will still be contagious. I get that we are playing with probabilities. On the other hand healthcare workers already work with sick people so they could be more dangerous to the sick if still contagious, short of COVID patients. Of course you have to weight this against the need of healthcare workers and there is a chance that healthcare workers wear n95 masks correctly. I get all this, but you have to see how all this looks to the general public

Proper masks when worn correctly work. I don’t have a doubt about it, never did even when CDC said we don’t need them, I know why they said it too. The problem is that CDC keeps on changing what they say. I get that as we learn more the message changes, but they loose credibility. If you say that 7 days is enough for healthcare workers you have to say it is enough for all, anything else makes no sense for most people.

FDA sitting on approving home tests and therapeutics and then rushing approval as soon as omicron is here and there is a huge spike. All of this just looks bad, as if they don’t really know what they are doing. I realize we are talking perception, but it matters if you want the population to heed your messages and guidance.


----------



## daveb

TCMX, (are there really 3 of you?) Re-read the part about "real world". 

When 10 people are wearing N95s, 6 test positive, 4 are sick, 4 test negative, a "mountain" of empirical evidence supporting masks carries little weight - except possibly to those who sit behind desks looking for more **** to quote.

My point is, all the evidence in the world to the contrary, the sale has not been made to the masses.


----------



## Barmoley

Omicron has been very confusing. So far what seems to be pretty consistent is people testing negative early even when having symptoms with both PCR and antigen tests. Then testing positive 5-6 days after onset of symptoms when symptoms are gone or almost gone. Not scientific, but pretty consistent around here. Then there are many people with 0 symptoms testing positive too. So far everyone had mild symptoms or no symptoms, so some hope there. Problem ofcourse is that most people will test when they are actually sick and when the test comes back negative they assume it is not COVID and won’t retest. My suggestion is that if you have cold symptoms now, assume it is COVID.


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> When 10 people are wearing N95s, 6 test positive, 4 are sick, 4 test negative, a "mountain" of empirical evidence supporting masks carries little weight - except possibly to those who sit behind desks looking for more **** to quote.



that's not how statistics works.

and actually the whole point of empirical evidence is to separate reality at scale from anecdotal observation. if you really trust science like you say you do then you should be ok with admitting that what you observe personally does not invalidate the work done by experts.

do you have any professional experience doing statistics or epidemiology or virology? I want to understand what experience you have where you feel confident that you can make a post like this.


----------



## daveb

I'm being anecdotal about how the real world works. I'll type slowly for you. A sizable part of the population doesn't give 2 f's about your empirical evidence, your science, your statistics, when they are contrary to what their real world experience is.

Widely held perceptions are that contracting Covid is random, that masks offer no protection, and now with Omni, vaccines are no longer effective - if they ever were. It matters not a whit that "evidence" you've just googled, contradicts those perceptions.

This might be different if the "scientists" had a scintilla of credibility. But by being less accurate than the weatherman, changing requirements more frequently than the wind changes direction, only being able to "explain" what has already happened instead of predicting what may happen and making money hand over fist because of people having to comply with their 'suggestions", they may not ever have credibility again. 

I'm certainly in the group that believes that "numbers don't lie but statistics can be flexible". You're welcome to stay in the office and google studies from wherever but until you've pulled a shift with a couple temps because the rest of the (N95 wearing) scheduled staff is home with Covid, YOUR opinions, despite protestations to the contrary, don't carry much if any weight in my real world.


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> I'm being anecdotal about how the real world works. I'll type slowly for you. A sizable part of the population doesn't give 2 f's about your empirical evidence, your science, your statistics, when they are contrary to what their real world experience is.
> 
> Widely held perceptions are that contracting Covid is random, that masks offer no protection, and now with Omni, vaccines are no longer effective - if they ever were. It matters not a whit that "evidence" you've just googled, contradicts those perceptions.
> 
> This might be different if the "scientists" had a scintilla of credibility. But by being less accurate than the weatherman, changing requirements more frequently than the wind changes direction, only being able to "explain" what has already happened instead of predicting what may happen and making money hand over fist because of people having to comply with their 'suggestions", they may not ever have credibility again.
> 
> I'm certainly in the group that believes that "numbers don't lie but statistics can be flexible". You're welcome to stay in the office and google studies from wherever but until you've pulled a shift with a couple temps because the rest of the (N95 wearing) scheduled staff is home with Covid, YOUR opinions, despite protestations to the contrary, don't carry much if any weight in my real world.



I think you should take this opinion to your administrators and see if they choose your point or view or the one suggested by a person who does exactly what I do but for your building instead of mine.

I suspect then you will see just how much weight the opinions of people like me carry.


----------



## Michi

daveb said:


> When 10 people are wearing N95s, 6 test positive, 4 are sick, 4 test negative, a "mountain" of empirical evidence supporting masks carries little weight - except possibly to those who sit behind desks looking for more **** to quote.


This is known as the fallacy of the excluded middle.
Masks not working some of the time does not imply that none of them work.


----------



## EricEricEric

A mask only works when they are N95 or above, sterile, and used perfectly each and every time. Which no one is practicing as it’s impractical in the real world

As a result at best the masks only slow the spread and at worst possibly increase the spread more rapidly 

Absolutely nothing will stop anyone from contracting the virus at some point.

This is very evident in the mostly highly vaccinated and totalitarian of countries vs the least as the numbers are very similar or worse for the most vaccinated and totalitarian countries 

The south eastern USA is a great example of this


----------



## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> at best the masks only slow the spread and at worst possibly increase the spread more rapidly


Huh? How can masks increase the spread?


EricEricEric said:


> This is very evident in the mostly highly vaccinated and totalitarian of countries vs the least as the numbers are very similar or worse for the most vaccinated and totalitarian countries


No source, no point.


----------



## daveb

Michi said:


> This known as the fallacy of the excluded middle.
> Masks not working some of the time does not imply that none of them work.



What I'm asserting is that perception is more true than reality. Throw all the facts at it that you will, it doesn't change it - perception is more true. 

10 people wearing masks, 6 test positive, 4 are sick, 4 are not, (2 false positives). Perception is that people contract Covid at random, and that masks don't work. Studies from around the world may "prove" otherwise but right here, right now, perception is reality.

I'm tired and I'm ornery. I'm doing a double 2morrow on a day I should not be working but I've got to cover shifts. 

Good night and Merry Christmas.


----------



## Michi

daveb said:


> What I'm asserting is that perception is more true than reality. Throw all the facts at it that you will, it doesn't change it - perception is more true.


People perceiving something as true doesn't make it true. I might perceive that gravity doesn't exist and step off the side of a tall building. But gravity doesn't care; it just _is._ I'll plummet down at the exact same rate regardless of my perception.

It's much the same with masks and the virus. Masks are like seat belts. They help. A lot. And they are not perfect.

If people perceive that masks are not working and don't wear them, that just means that, overall, there will be more sick people than there would have been otherwise.

I tend to think of it as evolution in action. On average, fewer people who heed health advice and adhere to social distancing will die than people who ignore that advice.

Merry Christmas to you, too!


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Jeez two pages today at this time 39 in all this thread keeps going. Somehow don't think minds will be changed on KKF. 

Merry Christmas 

Hoping the James Webb space telescope will
leave the launch pad on Christmas day. And pray that it unfolds and works. If it does I think it will be one of NASA's greatest achievements.

Hubble started it.


----------



## gregfisk

I feel sorry for people who don’t understand, or don’t want to understand that their tiny little world that they live in isn’t evidence of anything. Masks most definitely work or hospitals wouldn’t have been using them for decades now. Omicron is extremely contagious so we’re going to have to be extra diligent in using the available protections. I’m getting so tired of the people who think because the experience they perceive to be reality is the reality of the world.


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## Keith Sinclair

Here's a little reality for ya 
Hubble deep field taken around 30 years ago. Sure most here have seen it. 
Northern Hemisphere just above big dipper the
Blackest part of sky Hubble took long exposure 

With a few milky way stars every other light is a galaxy. Several thousand of them in an area like looking tube smaller than a postage stamp at the sky.
Then they aimed Hubble to another black no star area in the Southern Hemisphere that's this image. Same thing thousands of Galaxy.
If you expand picture the four brightest with cross of light on them are stars in milky way galaxy. Every other light no matter how dim are deep field galaxies. 






The James Webb has a much larger mirror and much more advanced sensors & cameras.


----------



## Luftmensch

daveb said:


> until you've pulled a shift with a couple temps because the rest of the (N95 wearing) scheduled staff is home with Covid



I have sympathy for this position. I imagine it would be stressful and generate a feeling of futility.

I'm not going to lie; I'll admit I have little empathy. I don't _know_ what it is like to work with a skeleton crew due to Covid transmission. In a parallel universe maybe a different lived experience would make me think differently.




daveb said:


> A sizable part of the population doesn't give 2 f's about your empirical evidence, your science, your statistics, when they are contrary to what their real world experience is.



Sadly I will agree with you. I hope you acknowledge this is a sad state of affairs? It also doesn't mean science or experts are wrong. The past 400 years of science have conclusively shown time and again how 'reality' doesn't have to conform to our expectations and experience.

If anything, this disaffection just shows how polluted public discourse is.



daveb said:


> This might be different if the "scientists" had a scintilla of credibility. But by being less accurate than the weatherman, changing requirements more frequently than the wind changes direction, only being able to "explain" what has already happened instead of predicting what may happen and making money hand over fist because of people having to comply with their 'suggestions", they may not ever have credibility again.



Careful now. Those are very _dangerous_ words. This is part of the problem.

By and large, Government agencies and chief medical officers are credible and _do_ know what they are doing. Without putting too harsh an edge on it, and with respect, you are in no position to judge the credibility of these institutions/experts. Claiming these people have no credibility is deeply cynical. 

Yes; there are some shills and hacks out there. Yes; major parties are intervening and politicising the advice. That can be exhausting and hard to navigate. Choose your own reality if you want to.... Or accept that the experts out there are making difficult decisions with limited data in a changing environment. The advice may be flawed but it is also likely to be the best advice, given their remit and all available data at the time.




daveb said:


> Good night and Merry Christmas.



And to you too! I hope you have a few more days to relax. I think we can all agree... it looks like we will all need to rest and recover for a potentially difficult January.


----------



## Luftmensch

daveb said:


> Ntxt



I originally walked past this as 'cute'.

It sort of captures the notion that science is not a set of immutable facts but rather is a _process_. A process of developing the most accurate description or predictive model of the world we live in. One that is verifiable. One that can be challenged. One where we can replace outdated ideas...

But given the context of the discussion so far... it might be worth pointing out that apart from this being a doctored Peanuts cartoon, it is also _wrong_.

Questioning the science is _not_ how you do science. We stand on the shoulders of giants. That is how we make progress. If you couldn't take anything for granted, you'd be constantly investigating the same thing and doing everything from first principles.

"Questioning the science is how you do science" is about as useful as forging your own knife and casting your own skillet before you make breakfast each morning... growing your own bacon and churning your own butter as well.... or.... you could just accept that there are better experts than you at making knifes and skillets.... and more efficient farmers...

Unless your level of training and expertise puts you in a rare peer group that sits at the cutting edge of the scientific community, you are in no position to question the science. Frankly; that applies to 99.9% of us. In other words; for people like "us": _don't question the science_ is rather appropriate.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

My two sisters are coming to Hawaii in January. Peak of humpback whale season. Three days two nights in Maui for whale watch 
cruise. Did that with my nephew on Zodiac raft
Whales came right up to craft & checked us out. Horseback riding. Also drive to top of Haleakala it's cold up there in the winter & you can see the snow capped peaks of mouna loa & mouna kea on the Big Island. A site you will never forget. I got KN95 mask for both of them.


----------



## LostHighway

Luftmensch said:


> Questioning the science is _not_ how you do science. We stand on the shoulders of giants. That is how we make progress. If you couldn't take anything for granted, you'd be constantly investigating the same thing and doing everything from first principles.



I'm a little uncomfortable with this. A significant amount of published, peer reviewed, scientific work from the past few decades has failed replication attempts, including some frequently cited work. Maybe a little more _investigating the same thing_ wouldn't be all bad. There are also quite a few examples of now accepted science that were rejected for decades (the bacterial connection to stomach ulcers, plate tectonics,...). Max Planck's quip that _"Science advances one funeral at a time" _is not without some validity.

With regard to the issue of public understanding and behavior there are quite a number of issues in play. The general public's grasp of science in general and how science works appears to be extremely shallow. Their grasp of statistics is, if anything, even shallower. We're dealing with something that has a huge number of uncontrolled variables - this isn't a situation with clear and immediate cause and effect, e.g. you stick your finger in the fire and it gets burned - so it is difficult to apprehend. Governments that cavalierly lie to their public on an almost daily basis certainly hasn't helped. Add some questionable decisions by the public health community as well as some bad framing and public education in a world where ideas that range from well meaning but poorly understood to bat **** crazy can be quickly and widely distributed and you have our current mess. You can throw in the erosion of a sense of public or communal responsibility too, but how real this apparent phenomena actually is I don't know.


----------



## ian

This distinction’s a little too black and white, though. Absolutely other scientists should question existing theories and the results of previous studies, at least until they’re well replicated. @Luftmensch’s comment was more about nonscientists questioning (really, dismissing) the existing scientific literature based on personal experience / anecdotes. Personal experience is powerfully convincing, I admit, and if it’s at odds with a study it might be worth replicating the study, but it’s not itself a study.


----------



## LostHighway

ian said:


> This distinction’s a little too black and white, though. Absolutely other scientists should question existing theories and the results of previous studies, at least until they’re well replicated. @Luftmensch’s comment was more about nonscientists questioning (really, dismissing) the existing scientific literature based on personal experience / anecdotes. Personal experience is powerfully convincing, I admit, and if it’s at odds with a study it might be worth replicating the study, but it’s not itself a study.



I think @Luftmensch was addressing something of a Platonic ideal. In general I don't see a huge amount of the public not believing specific research papers, which they don't read unless someone is shoving it in their face along with an "interpretation" of what it means, but rather questioning "scientific" advice drawn (one hopes) from the research but filtered through politicians, bureaucrats, and the media which is a rather different animal. I think public distrust broadly is generally a good thing given that the government, corporations, and the media have given them ample reason over the past fifty years plus not to trust them. Of course the problem is that public trust can be be a highly desirable commodity but once you've squandered it....


----------



## gregfisk

Keith Sinclair said:


> Here's a little reality for ya
> Hubble deep field taken around 30 years ago. Sure most here have seen it.
> Northern Hemisphere just above big dipper the
> Blackest part of sky Hubble took long exposure
> 
> With a few milky way stars every other light is a galaxy. Several thousand of them in an area like looking tube smaller than a postage stamp at the sky.
> Then they aimed Hubble to another black no star area in the Southern Hemisphere that's this image. Same thing thousands of Galaxy.
> If you expand picture the four brightest with cross of light on them are stars in milky way galaxy. Every other light no matter how dim are deep field galaxies.
> View attachment 157522
> 
> 
> The James Webb has a much larger mirror and much more advanced sensors & cameras.


This is so f’ing cool  and the only regret I have is I won’t be around in to find out what’s really out there. Some day we’ll find somewhere else to call home and how amazing that new reality will be!


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Plate Tectonics - Abraham Ortelius (Dutch) in
1500's was first recorded scientist, master map maker to say America's were joined then split from EU & Africa.

In 1912 Alfred Wegener (German) said that the continents were drifting slowly around the earth. His hypothesis was widely rejected by 
most Geologist. Only in 1950's it was proven by many findings like palaeomagnetism. Once it was realized it tied so many things together in the field of Geology. How Mountains are formed uplifted crust from early Earth sea fossils high up in mountain ranges. 

Both these men were Giants in their fields. 

Calcium Carbonate from reefs & tiny shells of sea organisms during early Jurassic formed a carboniferous platform uplifting formed the Italian Alps. High pressure changed carbonate
Into white Carrara Marble. 

Michelangelo's David is carved from compacted carbonate from an ancient sea floor.

Another genius from the past.


----------



## Luftmensch

LostHighway said:


> I'm a little uncomfortable with this.



Understandably.



ian said:


> @Luftmensch’s comment was more about nonscientists questioning (really, dismissing) the existing scientific literature based on personal experience / anecdotes.



Mostly this 



LostHighway said:


> I think @Luftmensch was addressing something of a Platonic ideal.



A tiny bit... but mostly I was addressing how the outcomes of science should be consumed by the public and politicians.



LostHighway said:


> In general I don't see a huge amount of the public not believing specific research papers, which they don't read unless someone is shoving it in their face along with an "interpretation" of what it means, but rather questioning "scientific" advice drawn (one hopes) from the research but filtered through politicians, bureaucrats, and the media which is a rather different animal.



I respectfully disagree.

Climate change is a prime example. Yes politics and money are perverting the discussion. Yes media is throwing fuel on the fire. But if people actually accepted the science, politicians would have a difficult time convincing their constituents to vote for them. Media would have poor subscribership. All this sh!t and pollution in the information space would be laughed off and dismissed as junk.

Same for the antivax movement. Same for the anti-mask crowd. Flat earthers exist in remarkable numbers.

These people are out there. Each time these communities challenge the emergent science (based on their political/cultural/religious philosophies) we depart from an objective reality and waste time arguing about facts.

I have said it many times on KKF: i dont care one iota if you say:

I accept climate change is real but I don't want to change the way society is organised - I dont want to do anything about it
I accept masks offer varying degrees of protection but I find them uncomfortable and my comfort is more important than increasing the safety of those around me.
These are positions honest and don't attempt to hide their agenda behind some alternate version of an 'objective' reality.




LostHighway said:


> Max Planck's quip that _"Science advances one funeral at a time" _is not without some validity.



Oh sure! It has validity. Our descriptions of the universe need to be verified. They need to be challenged.

If we move the discussion away from how the public should consume science and actually talk about science... I could still have a mini rant about statements like these.

[RANT]

I think statements like _"Science advances one funeral at a time"_ and "_question the science_" *does* have validity. But they are a _poor_ representation of how the majority of science is done. My concern and irritation is that they become a magnet and dog whistle for 'sceptics'.

Like I say, the reality of modern science is that we stand on the shoulders of giants. Science is by and large an incremental effort of pushing the boundaries. Building on other people's work. Almost every single discipline (as far as I am aware) include something like a literary review or background in their publication template. This is done not only to contextualise the research but also establish an accepted foundation from which the research can proceed (assumptions, existing models... etc). For every one paper that shatters the boundaries and causes a major rethink.... there will be many orders of magnitude more papers that accept the boundary as a given and push it forward just a little further.

The other subtle thing about science that the general public might not be aware about is how difficult it is becoming. It is increasingly the case that _groups_ and not _individuals_ are responsible for major leaps forward. The more you find out, the more you need to invest in finding out the next piece of the puzzle. We have entered an age where science is being conducted in the hive mind. There are a lot of big-wig academics in every niche field... but they are not household names. You have to be part of a niche to know who the giants are - and they are often the head of well resourced groups. I think examples of science titans that became household names, like Einstein or Darwin, will become fewer and farther between.

This is significant because groups of people can iron out individual biases and cross check each other's work before even publishing. Sure, 'groupthink' is a risk but that tends to get challenged in the process. When science spans institutions and even countries, the cost in infrastructure and human resourcing is so high that mistakes are not an option. Look at the LHC or LIGO... or James Webb. There isnt room for error. The assumptions, engineering and objectives of these experiments are damned thorough.

These projects all seek to acquire new information so that we can develop new and better models. Fill in gaps of our knowledge. Their primary objective is not funeral planning.... although the community will embrace and possibly even morn any deaths that occur on the way...

[/RANT]


----------



## Keith Sinclair

You both made some good points IMHO


----------



## ian

Luftmensch said:


> It is increasingly the case that _groups_ and not _individuals_ are responsible for major leaps forward.



It’s really interesting to see this happening. My part of math is still mostly done by individuals or groups of <= 4 people, but it used to be only done by individuals, and small group collaboration is becoming more and more the norm. And just in the past couple years there have been some larger scale collaborations between mathematicians in specific fields, all working through a wiki of sorts. These latter groups are still pretty rare though.


----------



## tcmx3

ian said:


> It’s really interesting to see this happening. My part of math is still mostly done by individuals or groups of <= 4 people, but it used to be only done by individuals, and small group collaboration is becoming more and more the norm. And just in the past couple years there have been some larger scale collaborations between mathematicians in specific fields, all working through a wiki of sorts. These latter groups are still pretty rare though.



hopefully that continues.

one thing that has greatly benefitted ML, IMO anyway, is that TONS of it is built on open source and the mentality tends to leak over into the uses of it. and the companies that have the biggest research staffs (other than the notoriously stingy apple) have at least the tendency to share some or most of their work and this has cut down a lot (not solved obv.) on the big "problem" that hard sciences have traditionally faced (and if I understand correctly, oftentimes math too) of disparate groups or individuals working in parallel arriving at a solution to a problem simultaneously when obviously had they been communicating it might have sped things up a fair bit.

I have benefitted pretty significantly from free papers on arxiv myself professionally & personally Im all for it.

but my field is far less academia-centric as big tech companies invest heavily in it.


----------



## ian

tcmx3 said:


> I have benefitted pretty significantly from free papers on arxiv myself professionally & personally Im all for it.



Yea, in some sense journals are now irrelevant, except that they are a metric used in hiring decisions. Basically everything I read is on the arXiv. There’s not much secrecy in my field. It’s more that it’s often difficult to manage large collaborations. It’s often more fun to just think about something with a friend.


----------



## juice

EricEricEric said:


> A mask only works when they are N95 or above, sterile, and used perfectly each and every time. Which no one is practicing as it’s impractical in the real world


Oh, look who it is - the poster who can't even work out the absolute basics of forum usage so that he can reply to all the questions being posted to him re previous posts. Even if your posts weren't full of really obvious and just plain stupid lies, your being too dumb to work out how to reply to posts would rule you out as anything approaching credible.


----------



## Luftmensch

I have had the fortune of intersecting with several different disciplines. 

Medicine is hilarious. Sometimes the authors list can be longer than the publication. Everybody and the kitchen sink are included in the publication  

The bulk of my experience is more aligned with @tcmx3: fields dominated by near-term practical (monetisable) outcomes rather than more abstract and perhaps blue-sky ideas.

Publications are authored in small groups typically 2-4. Contributions by a sole author are pretty much non-existent (and would likely be reviewed with caution). There is an inbuilt structure where publications are majority completed by 1-2 lead authors and minority supported by another 1-2 co-authors. In the most cynical (and rare) case, the 1-2 coauthors are there for political reasons and contribute zilch to the output. In milder cases acknowledging certain co-authors is almost a fee for access to opportunity, data and infrastructure. In the best (and in my experience, majority) case the coauthors are intellectual sounding boards. They dont do any of the detail work but are a fountain of ideas for making high-level strategic decisions.

But yeah... in these fields you could rattle off seminal papers and big 'names' that have had a massive impact... ultimately these people will never be important enough for people outside the fields to recognise. And really... while these people are _incredibly_ smart and have had a massive impact... a good portion of that is being in the right place at the right time with the right resources. I think many of these people would be humble enough to concede that. Again this speaks to the idea that progress is adding links to a long chain and that new links are formed in the context of participating with others.


----------



## MarcelNL

in medicine there are uniform rules for becoming an author on an article and all major journals follow those rules, if anything large groups of folks that worked on a study are mentioned as collaborators nowadays. Being an author is only possible if you really contributed.



Editorial Policies | About NEJM Evidence


----------



## rickbern

juice said:


> Oh, look who it is - the poster who can't even work out the absolute basics of forum usage so that he can reply to all the questions being posted to him re previous posts. Even if your posts weren't full of really obvious and just plain stupid lies, your being too dumb to work out how to reply to posts would rule you out as anything approaching credible.


As satisfying as it may be to call people dumb…

Here’s another fact to dispute this argument. You can increase the effectiveness of surgical masks immensely (I’m gonna post in YouTube awesome as well)


----------



## Brian Weekley

Hmmmm …

Well presented positions and arguments.

But I can’t help but thinking that …

I used to believe almost everything … and now I believe almost nothing.

Deliberate lies and the creation of miss-truths have become endemic so as to cause me to turn inward.

Too bad … I wonder if my dad felt this way when he got old.


----------



## Brian Weekley

Here’s a case in point … a screen shot of the current page.





Do you really believe that masks have really made a scintilla of difference in the progression of Covid?

Do you really believe that going to work for Amazon will really “Accelerate your Career”?

Hmmmmmm ….


----------



## daveb

Maybe the Amazon part..... And do they have employee discounts?


----------



## ian

Brian Weekley said:


> Do you really believe that masks have really made a scintilla of difference in the progression of Covid?



Yes?

I mean, studies indicate they decrease transmission rates. They’re not universally worn, or worn well, so the effect isn’t going to be commensurate with the optimal numbers, but I imagine there’s an effect. It seems hard to believe that anything makes a difference when the pandemic’s so widespread, but the fact that it’s bad doesn’t in any way mean that mitigation measures don’t work. It could be worse, no?


----------



## gregfisk

Brian Weekley said:


> Here’s a case in point … a screen shot of the current page.
> 
> View attachment 157638
> 
> 
> Do you really believe that masks have really made a scintilla of difference in the progression of Covid?
> 
> Do you really believe that going to work for Amazon will really “Accelerate your Career”?
> 
> Hmmmmmm ….



If masks didn’t work every single Dr. and Nurse in every hospital would have Covid, not to mention every other transmissible disease. So yes, I believe that they at least make a difference. 

Unfortunately when only some people are wearing them and then only some of them are wearing them properly or their wearing a bandanna over their face the overall effect gets diminished pretty quickly.


----------



## tcmx3

gregfisk said:


> If masks didn’t work every single Dr. and Nurse in every hospital would have Covid, not to mention every other transmissible disease. So yes, I believe that they at least make a difference.
> 
> Unfortunately when only some people are wearing them and then only some of them are wearing them properly or their wearing a bandanna over their face the overall effect gets diminished pretty quickly.



it is a little rich that that so often people who want to show something "doesn't work" are just able to sabotage it and then look around and say "see I told you so".


----------



## LostHighway

Luftmensch said:


> Climate change is a prime example. Yes politics and money are perverting the discussion. Yes media is throwing fuel on the fire. But if people actually accepted the science, politicians would have a difficult time convincing their constituents to vote for them. Media would have poor subscribership. All this sh!t and pollution in the information space would be laughed off and dismissed as junk.
> 
> Same for the antivax movement. Same for the anti-mask crowd. Flat earthers exist in remarkable numbers.
> 
> These people are out there. Each time these communities challenge the emergent science (based on their political/cultural/religious philosophies) we depart from an objective reality and waste time arguing about facts.
> 
> I have said it many times on KKF: i dont care one iota if you say:
> 
> I accept climate change is real but I don't want to change the way society is organised - I dont want to do anything about it
> I accept masks offer varying degrees of protection but I find them uncomfortable and my comfort is more important than increasing the safety of those around me.
> These are positions honest and don't attempt to hide their agenda behind some alternate version of an 'objective' reality.Their primary objective is not funeral planning.... although the community will embrace and possibly even morn any deaths that occur on the way...



Your posts deserve a long and thoughtful response, which I may or may not summon the energy for, but you've widened the lens to touch one of my hot buttons so I'm going to risk the ire of the mods for a simple (somewhat off topic) rant.
I really have no clear idea *** is wrong with people (lots!) but their capacity to ignore the obvious absolutely astounds me. I've spent the better part of my life mostly in the US Upper Midwest, save for a 15-year self exile in Northern New England. If you have driven rural roads in this part of the world for decades the reduction in wildlife is absolutely staggering. A drive of 200 miles (322km) in the right season used to leave your car liberally coated with insect strikes. The same drive in the same season today yields maybe a couple dozen at most. The roadsides used to be littered with the carcasses of mostly ground squirrels, plus the occasional racoon, skunk, deer, fox, badger, cats, etc. who were the victims of unfortunate encounters with cars and trucks. A drive that used to pass fifty carcasses now passes maybe six, with ground squirrels, the formerly dominant share, now nearly or totally absent. The bird count on the fence posts and telephone lines paralleling the roads is at least an order of magnitude less than it was in the 1970s. One would think that this would create a torrent of outrage and concern but there is hardly a peep in the popular media or regular civic discourse.
US real wages for men declined by 3% for males in the 50th percentile between 1979 and 2019 and by 7.7% for the bottom tenth percentile, the 90th percentile, the top ten percent, saw a 41.9 percent increase over the same period. The GINI index for the US has risen from 34.5 in 1979 to 41.95 in 2020.
The decline in average lifespan for Americans (males in particular) did not start with covid, although that greatly accelerated it, but rather begin in 2014.
I think one can reasonably argue that "science denial" is simply a marker for a much larger trend toward apathy and willful ignorance, but I believe the deeper currents are roiling with despair and simmering rage. What, if anything, will come of that remains to be seen.


----------



## gregfisk

LostHighway said:


> I think one can reasonably argue that "science denial" is simply a marker for a much larger trend toward apathy and willful ignorance, but I believe the deeper currents are roiling with despair and simmering rage. What, if anything, will come of that remains to be seen.



This, I believe is the crux of the divide in the US today. It appears that there’s a deeply held belief that some of us are being treated unfairly and that the country is turning into something that no longer fits into what some people think it should be. What will come of this is yet to be seen for sure. My fear is that it’s being driven by anger and fear and could certainly become violent at some point. There are people pushing that narrative so it’s a possibility. I find it a bit strange that the resentment and anger for the so called elite has turned into the denial of science. One can only hope that we can somehow work past this but time will tell.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

I get the feeling about not believing much on the web. Esp. if they want to lighten your wallet. Learned hard way couple times. 

My wife is retired nurse, some of her friends have been on front line all through covid. 
One says she wears N95 & a face shield. She said to spray outside of mask with alcohol if using it more than once. When first heard of latest strain being so contagious we up graded
our mask & I put alcohol in small mist bottle.
That was before our counts exploded around Thanksgiving. So feel it was a good move. 

If you think mask worn correctly, washing your hands, using using alcohol or gel on surfaces,
Social distance doesn't work you are not alone
Esp. in USA. That is why cases are going through the roof again. Hawaii had to cancel it's bowl game because so many members had covid.


----------



## MarcelNL

It's funny how few people there are that actually disregard the traffic direction on a highway, for sure those rules must be wrong as there are plenty of accidents despite them...

IMO the problem is that many people struggle to cope with new problems, and have issues letting go 'rights' , as in the feeling of entitlement, consciously or sub consciously. Denial is part of the grief process, anger is just the second step...


----------



## tcmx3

maybe it's easier to pretend COVID (or the threat thereof) doesnt exist than to face the reality that many of us live in a country that has fundamentally broken its social contract.

I guess between the hopelessness that one must deal with when facing the US healthcare system as anything other than a wealthy person (and I dont mean rich I mean wealthy a million or two will be absolutely annihilated in a typical fatal illness if you dont have REALLY good insurance) and just pretending like you're invincible until the very second they pull the plug on your ventilator because you're never coming back up, the latter probably just works better for most people.

the guy who said it got in a lot of trouble but he wasnt wrong when he said "step 1. dont get sick. if you do get sick, die quickly".


----------



## MarcelNL

The problem of Covid disbelief and anti vaxxers is not US specific, so it probably is something else that causes it...

I am of the opinion that all health care needs to be re thought.. health cannot be 'made' or bought, people will need to be taught more about health and the impact of their doing on it, and we probably cannot afford all the 'high tech magic' we see on TV for everybody even if we wanted/were able to pay for it.


----------



## MarcelNL

I get where you are coming from w.r. to the situation in the US....

My reference to re-thinking health care becuase of cost was targeting ALL health care, not just COVID, I agree that it should not be a major issue to get specific health care for COVID cases funded by government, especially as it has a floating debt ceiling anyhow....

I was thinking about how, just as an example, of how someone living a happy obese life can easily end up with high cholesterol and blood pressure in their forties and later on something like diabetes in their late fifties and finding himself in need of a couple of joint replacements...nothing rare and not over the top expensive on an individual bases UNTIL the n gets large and cost spiral out of control.


----------



## rickbern

Brian Weekley said:


> Here’s a case in point … a screen shot of the current page.
> 
> View attachment 157638
> 
> 
> Do you really believe that masks have really made a scintilla of difference in the progression of Covid?
> 
> Do you really believe that going to work for Amazon will really “Accelerate your Career”?
> 
> Hmmmmmm ….


I live in NYC.
I take public transportation 
I eat in restaurants where the table spacing is insanely tight by suburban standards
yes I believe masks save lives


----------



## Keith Sinclair

That's another thing about information on internet. If you have a health condition you can research it. Not all but many health conditions are directly related to diet. You don't need to take a lot of pills & powders just eat more healthy. Knowledge.

I know couple friends my age & older would rather take medications for type 2 diabetes, high cholesterol, high blood pressure. These are not poor people.

I had pre type 2 & high cholesterol not anymore
Changed my diet. Partly to use myself as a lab rat to see if I could. Also don't like medications that could have side effects. 

It wasn't easy at first to give up processed food
Esp. corn & potato chips. Sometimes walk past 
Ice Creme freezer or past oatmeal cookies with
withdrawal symptoms. Just found healthy substitutes.


----------



## Barmoley

MarcelNL said:


> The problem of Covid disbelief and anti vaxxers is not US specific, so it probably is something else that causes it...
> 
> I am of the opinion that all health care needs to be re thought.. health cannot be 'made' or bought, people will need to be taught more about health and the impact of their doing on it, and we probably cannot afford all the 'high tech magic' we see on TV for everybody even if we wanted/were able to pay for it.


It basically looks like in countries where for one reason or another population doesn't trust the government vaccination levels are low. This doesn't take into consideration the highly vaccinated countries where governments have such control over the population that they can force vaccinations. So you need either totalitarian government or populations that believe in their government. When dealing with a pandemic totalitarian governments are the best, of course this has some other problems, but if all you wanted was the most effective way of dealing with a pandemic full government control is the best.

In the US the culture is to challenge the government and to keep it in check. Not ideal during a pandemic, but not surprising that people don't want to blindly follow what the government is saying. It doesn't help that politicians have been caught lying or misinforming in the last 50 years and in general have shown that they care more about staying in power than about their constituents.


----------



## MarcelNL

The issue with internet is not a lack of information but the difficulty to verify the validity of 'sources', in the good old days I read all volumes of the Encyclopedia Brittanica cover to cover, in todays environment I'd want some confirmation on the validity of sources too....


----------



## MarcelNL

Barmoley said:


> It basically looks like in countries where for one reason or another population doesn't trust the government vaccination levels are low. This doesn't take into consideration the highly vaccinated countries where governments have such control over the population that they can force vaccinations. So you need either totalitarian government or populations that believe in their government. When dealing with a pandemic totalitarian governments are the best, of course this has some other problems, but if all you wanted was the most effective way of dealing with a pandemic full government control is the best.
> 
> In the US the culture is to challenge the government and to keep it in check. Not ideal during a pandemic, but not surprising that people don't want to blindly follow what the government is saying. It doesn't help that politicians have been caught lying or misinforming in the last 50 years and in general have shown that they care more about staying in power than about their constituents.



I'm not so sure that totalitarian regimens do much better overall, but they are able to control things like a pandemic for a while really good...

No government is geared to control pandemics, that is one problem, I for one do not believe that handling a pandemic is something that is the responsibility of any government...WE are as much part of society as our government, it's just too easy to distance ourselves from our environment and make our government or health care system the problem owner.

(edited for an omission)
I'm pretty sure that the people in Italy or Portugal *do not h*ave loads more faith in their government (f.e. try to get a phone line installed in your house in those countries) , but the people saw close up what happened and learned a lesson and took it to heart.


----------



## LostHighway

gregfisk said:


> This, I believe is the crux of the divide in the US today. It appears that there’s a deeply held belief that some of us are being treated unfairly and that the country is turning into something that no longer fits into what some people think it should be. What will come of this is yet to be seen for sure. My fear is that it’s being driven by anger and fear and could certainly become violent at some point. There are people pushing that narrative so it’s a possibility. I find it a bit strange that the resentment and anger for the so called elite has turned into the denial of science. One can only hope that we can somehow work past this but time will tell.



I think the sense that the US has largely ceased to function effectively for the many as opposed to the few is not unfounded. This is not a partisan position as there is more than enough blame to go around. The old slogan (60s?) "If you're not angry you're not paying attention" is IMO more relevant now then whenever it was created. The problem is that unless people follow the minutia of policy, and to some extent even if they do, it is difficult to identify the causes or clear villains. The sense that somehow things would be fine if only the state would leave them alone is fairly widespread, however arguable that position may be. The state and some vague notion of science as an arm of the state have joined the other nativist boogeymen.

I really don't understand what gets people out in the streets in Northern Europe and perhaps Oz to protest travel limitations, masking requirements, vaccine passports, etc. From a parochial American perspective these populations look comparatively well served by their governments, high taxes not withstanding. I grant that as in the US small businesses may not be as well taken care of as larger economic constituencies.


----------



## Barmoley

MarcelNL said:


> I'm not so sure that totalitarian regimens do much better overall, but they are able to control things like a pandemic for a while really good...
> 
> No government is geared to control pandemics, that is one problem, I for one do not believe that handling a pandemic is something that is the responsibility of any government...WE are as much part of society as our government, it's just too easy to distance ourselves from our environment and make our government or health care system the problem owner.
> 
> I'm pretty sure that the people in Italy or Portugal have loads more faith in their government (f.e. try to get a phone line installed in your house in those countries) , but the people saw close up what happened and learned a lesson and took it to heart.


I didn't say totalitarian governments do better overall. I said they can control pandemics better. I also agree with the retoric that we are all part of the problem and should, as part of the society, do our part. The notion of the responsible populous that always does what is right for the society on an individual level is beautiful and absolutely contrary to reality and human nature.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

that 
Know keep bringing up Singapore. Some would call it totalitarian, actually it was a rough
Asian sea port with many different nationalities & languages. Lee Kuan Yee came to power with a healthy dose of Confucius ideals. It works.


----------



## tcmx3

LostHighway said:


> From a parochial American perspective these populations look comparatively well served by their governments, high taxes not withstanding.



the way those European tax structures work is less straightforward but in the end their taxes are not actually that high, they're just a lot less hidden/delayed than in the US.

in the end you WILL pay. the question is how and what will you get back for it. the overall tax receipts of the US gov and the component states are very high but yet we seem to get nothing for them as regular citizens. some people believe this means taxes are "low" just because they pay a lower income tax rate. but you know what tax is actually low in the US? the only one that's actually really, genuinely low with no down-the-road capture? capital gains.


----------



## gregfisk

tcmx3 said:


> the way those European tax structures work is less straightforward but in the end their taxes are not actually that high, they're just a lot less hidden/delayed than in the US.
> 
> in the end you WILL pay. the question is how and what will you get back for it. the overall tax receipts of the US gov and the component states are very high but yet we seem to get nothing for them as regular citizens. some people believe this means taxes are "low" just because they pay a lower income tax rate. but you know what tax is actually low in the US? the only one that's actually really, genuinely low with no down-the-road capture? capital gains.



I think you are right about this and the reality I believe is we probably don’t really pay less to be part of society, we just pay it in different ways. I’m not complaining but the downside of our system is that you can have a medical situation come up that will literally bankrupt you in a very short amount of time. That’s something I would like to see change as would many others in this country. I hope I’m not getting too political here for the mods, I hope not.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

MarcelNL said:


> Last bulge was Delta, just wait until Omikron gets around real good...any day now, no need to hold your breath for too long....the spike is likely going up steeper than ever before



December 19 you posted this just one week cases have spiked big time. New Years Eve is huge here January cases will keep rising.


----------



## ian

MarcelNL said:


> in the good old days I read all volumes of the Encyclopedia Brittanica cover to cover



Dude.


----------



## MarcelNL

Keith Sinclair said:


> December 19 you posted this just one week cases have spiked big time. New Years Eve is huge here January cases will keep rising.



France just hit the 100.000 new infections PER DAY mark for the first time in the pandemic and numbers and increases in Spain and Italy look similar, SOMETHING is ongoing....if the hospitalization rate stays at a manageable level society will suffer from high numbers of people staying home but that is far better than flooded hospitals and mass graves being dug. So far there are some reports that suddenly kids are more prone to be hospitalized, it's probably too early to see a clear outline of where this wave is leading us.


----------



## outofgamut

MarcelNL said:


> So far there are some reports that suddenly kids are more prone to be hospitalized



Do you remember where that information came from? That's of interest to me and I'd like to learn more about it.


----------



## MarcelNL

outofgamut said:


> Do you remember where that information came from? That's of interest to me and I'd like to learn more about it.


I do, the issue is that it's in Dutch (Belgium)...the report is not very detailed and comes down to an unexpected group of kids admitted to hospital with COVID, no serious complaints, more like the RS virus. The report mentioned two hospitals in Belgium both with sudden 'groups' of kids admitted to hospital, another report mentioned same in New York



New York State Department of Health Issues Health Advisory Warning of An Increase In Pediatric Hospitalizations Associated With COVID-19


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Just checked Hawaii graph it is similar to one posted a week ago December here has been dramatic. Most cases Oahu by far. 
March got two Moderna shots
June 2021 brother came had to show vaccine card to enter & airport temp. test. Tourist were
Pouring in from mainland after being cooped up over a year. Cases were low 18 one day 7 day average 28.

Then Delta hit & governor told tourist not to come. When nephew came with his Russian bride on honeymoon much less tourist it was 
nice. One day 446 seven day average 756. Most hospitalized not vaccinated. Some deaths. 

Then dipped again December 3 one day 118
Seven day average 107.
December has been straight up Christmas day
1,568 over 1K a day this week a few deaths but not like before vaccines more deaths in 2020.

Of coarse count is much higher because many sick don't go to hospital. I'm sure it's same else where. Flights were getting canceled because too many staff sick.


----------



## outofgamut

Thanks, @MarcelNL 

that is concerning. There's virtually no information in this NY health advisory but given how NYC (and the UK) were the first to report on PIMS-TS (MIS-C) given their high numbers I am taking this seriously.

We have seen very little severe Covid issues in children here in Australia. If that should have changed with Omikron that'd be v concerning.

It's sad because I was just coming around to the thinking that we're slowly getting onto the path that probably coronaviruses before have taken: increased infectivity but reduced severity (based on preliminary reports quoting about 1/5 of patients req hosp admission compared to Delta.



MarcelNL said:


> I do, the issue is that it's in Dutch (Belgium)...the report is not very detailed and comes down to an unexpected group of kids admitted to hospital with COVID, no serious complaints, more like the RS virus. The report mentioned two hospitals in Belgium both with sudden 'groups' of kids admitted to hospital, another report mentioned same in New York
> 
> 
> 
> New York State Department of Health Issues Health Advisory Warning of An Increase In Pediatric Hospitalizations Associated With COVID-19


----------



## MarcelNL

@outofgamut ; Taking this signal serious is good, IMO it's too early to draw any conclusions yet...it COULD simply be the numbers...if Omikron is infecting children as fast or even faster (likely given the nature of interaction between kids) that alone might be causing an increase in hospitalizations. The peaks in new infections seen in some countries are about double as high as previously. Looking at the infections reported and deaths reported IMO does not show any conclusive trends...in some countries deaths now slowly rise, where in other countries with a serious spike in new infections death rates remain the same (or do not rise yet).


----------



## CA_cook

inferno said:


> so you say... how do you feel about that statement now? now when we have the omicron variant which i saw in my magical crystal ball.
> 
> to be honest i never had a crystal ball. i just read MEDICINE when i was 15-16 years old! and this is about the most basic ****ing **** there is those books!!! *how this works has been knows for about 100 years now*. just so you know!
> 
> i guess that could be interpreted as some crystal ball mojo for r3tarded people but i dont know to be honest. if thats fair.
> 
> so lets sum it up: 120 people in an oslo restaurant gets infceted.* ALL of them are double vaxxed*. AND tested before they go to the "julebord" christmas dinner.
> 
> here is the article but it has been updated to 120 now. translate with google translate.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Omikron-smitte i Oslo etter julebord
> 
> 
> Så langt er én person bekreftet smittet med omikron. Det forventes flere tilfeller, ifølge Oslo kommune. Så mange som 50-60 mennesker kan ha den nye varianten.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nrk.no
> 
> 
> 
> 
> text of interest:
> *– Det er noe vi har sett generelt i det siste. At veldig mange fullvaksinerte blir smittet, og smitter videre, sier medisinskfaglig ansvarlig for smittesporingsteamet i Oslo vest, Jorun Thaulow.*
> 
> it says: this is something that we have seen in general lately. that very many people, fully vaccinated, get infected, and spread the disease to others, says the olso vest medical head honcho. Jorun Thaulow.
> 
> (i used to live in norway so i know the lingo quite well)
> 
> -------------------------------
> 
> in denmark we have 1840 infected with omicron. (its in english too!!)
> 
> 
> https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-11122021-uy12
> 
> 
> 
> and 74% is double vaxxed. 14% unvaxxed. and 9.5% triple vaxxed and 2.2% 1vaxxed.
> and this is kinda funny. because there is about 20% unvaxxed in denmark. so now the vaxxed are getting infected MORE than unvaxxed!
> 
> *GEE, WHO WOULD HAVE ****ING GUESSED IT COULD TURN OUT LIKE THIS??*
> 
> hate to be the one to say "i fukn told you so", but i guess i did actually tell you so. and not a single fukn crystal ball was used in the process.
> common sense people... common sense. and as we all know its not that common anymore.
> 
> la la laaa,
> la la la la laaa




Dude, instead of gloating, go get your booster shot. You didn't understand the science then and you still don't understand it now. Be safe and happy upcoming New Year.


----------



## Gordinho

When a society allows education to become a luxury of those able to pay for it (sooner or later) then critical thinking naturally declines and people become prey to one liners and superficial discussions leading to life threatening decisions. 

It is, somehow interesting, that all the science deniers become very welcoming to science and medicine when on ICUs...


----------



## chiffonodd

Gordinho said:


> When a society allows education to become a luxury of those able to pay for it (sooner or later) then critical thinking naturally declines and people become prey to one liners and superficial discussions leading to life threatening decisions.
> 
> It is, somehow interesting, that all the science deniers become very welcoming to science and medicine when on ICUs...



I don't know if that's the issue. Plenty of deniers in my town and K-12 education is free for all. Actually it's free for all everywhere. So...


----------



## tcmx3

chiffonodd said:


> I don't know if that's the issue. Plenty of deniers in my town and K-12 education is free for all. Actually it's free for all everywhere. So...



k-12 is babysitting not education in the US.


----------



## chefwp

tcmx3 said:


> k-12 is babysitting not education in the US.


That varies wildly, which is tragic for kids unlucky to come of age in an under-served area. Education should be the great equalizer in our supposedly merit-based capitalist society, but poor neighborhoods get very poor education and wealthy suburbs get what their taxes pay for. It is not fair, and it is also not as simple as I laid it out, there are some problems even money alone can't solve.


----------



## tcmx3

chefwp said:


> That varies wildly, which is tragic for kids unlucky to come of age in an under-served area. Education should be the great equalizer in our supposedly merit-based capitalist society, but poor neighborhoods get very poor education and wealthy suburbs get what their taxes pay for. It is not fair, and it is also not as simple as I laid it out, there are some problems even money alone can't solve.



I mean you are absolutely, 100% right. In fact, you happen to live in the state with one of the absolute worst state to local funding ratios and as such the outcomes from PA vary wildly, with your wealthy suburbs having some of the best schools in the country and then Philadelphia having been systematically and intentionally ruined. As part of a job I had many, many years ago working in early childhood education I actually visited some Philly schools and if I could put the people responsible in jail I'd strongly consider it.

But Im gonna stand firm on this. The cultural point of public education in the US is not to educate, but to give parents childcare such that they can work. And that's why so often it's workforce commissions or whatever your state calls them that is running early childcare stuff. 

By and large teachers are there to teach and to make a difference. Administrators are usually people who wanted to be politicians but weren't smart/attractive enough. The occasional EDD or PhD who really knows what theyre doing is an increasingly rare phenomena. DOEs are staffed by a mix but the people who rise to the top are again wannabe politicians or even worse the dogs of actual politicians. And you have a huge a MASSIVE industry of "ed tech", testing companies, enforcement, textbooks, etc. who exist simply to grift off the government. And then you have the fact that schools have become a proxy war for political arguments for the parents now.

In there, where is wanting to educate kids? It's really only the teachers as a group IMO.

In that job I went from being cynical about public education to HATING the system. Funny enough the same thing happened when I worked with healthcare. Working in tech for the last half decade has been a wonderful respite.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

I'm sure many here got a basic education K-12
Public schools.


----------



## gregfisk

chefwp said:


> That varies wildly, which is tragic for kids unlucky to come of age in an under-served area. Education should be the great equalizer in our supposedly merit-based capitalist society, but poor neighborhoods get very poor education and wealthy suburbs get what their taxes pay for. It is not fair, and it is also not as simple as I laid it out, there are some problems even money alone can't solve.



I think this sums it up nicely. I believe it is totally dependent on where you were educated. Where I live and grew up in the Seattle area education is very good. My daughter also got a good education and had no problem getting into a good college. Of course this varies from school district to school district as well. I do believe however that the US is behind several other countries in the way it educates its children. I have seen a lot of kids who don’t seem to have learned much and are going to have a tough time being productive in society.


----------



## chefwp

tcmx3 said:


> But Im gonna stand firm on this. The cultural point of public education in the US is not to educate, but to give parents childcare such that they can work. And that's why so often it's workforce commissions or whatever your state calls them that is running early childcare stuff.


I neither 100% agree nor disagree with this. I have a feeling that results again vary on place, money, culture, and the prevailing political winds, whether local or larger. I will say that I can 100% understand why you believe that. It was the issue that came up most frequently in the previous 2 school years as education shifted to cyber learning in kids' homes. I had my own strong opinion, and I will admit that it was very influenced by both my wife's and my ability to transition to work-from-home, and because of that privilege I didn't harshly judge the families that were passionately against schools going cyber because it was incompatible with their jobs and ergo incompatible with their financial security in uncertain times. Historically public education was a response to a need for minimally educated workforce that would fulfill the needs of a nation entering its industrial phase, and not childcare. But times have changed, women used to be homemakers and caregivers primarily back when that all went down, and this is no longer true. Parents that both work 100% look forward to their kids finally going to school full time as daycare can be as burdensome, financially, as a mortgage.

I do find it interesting that in all the things you mention above, you largely leave out parents and culture and the role they play in educational outcomes. But I am not surprised because it is so often overlooked by 'experts' and has been repeatedly for decades. It shouldn't be, educational outcomes are very influenced by how parents and their culture places value (or not) on education, how they model it, and how they communicate to their children about it indirectly and directly. I'm remembering the story of when Chicago's school system was given a mandate to solve the huge problem of illiteracy and actually given ample funding to make it happen. They tried many things, training teachers, spending more $ per student on making schools better in general, upping salaries to attract better talent, and many other things. All these initiatives did not move the needle on the problem of illiteracy, all the things they changed did not seem to correlate to better literacy outcomes. Finally they did find that the biggest predictor of literacy or illiteracy, the thing that had the strongest correlation if you will, was the number of books in a child's home. In other words, if parents valued literacy and books, it was the single biggest factor in whether or not a child would learn how to read. Sadly, this is not something that is easily fixable by politicians, school systems, its admin, or its teachers.


----------



## tcmx3

chefwp said:


> I neither 100% agree nor disagree with this. I have a feeling that results again vary on place, money, culture, and the prevailing political winds, whether local or larger. I will say that I can 100% understand why you believe that. It was the issue that came up most frequently in the previous 2 school years as education shifted to cyber learning in kids' homes. I had my own strong opinion, and I will admit that it was very influenced by both my wife's and my ability to transition to work-from-home, and because of that privilege I didn't harshly judge the families that were passionately against schools going cyber because it was incompatible with their jobs and ergo incompatible with their financial security in uncertain times. Historically public education was a response to a need for minimally educated workforce that would fulfill the needs of a nation entering its industrial phase, and not childcare. But times have changed, women used to be homemakers and caregivers primarily back when that all went down, and this is no longer true.
> 
> *I do find it interesting that in all the things you mention above, you largely leave out parents and culture and the role they play in educational outcomes.* But I am not surprised because it is so often overlooked by 'experts' and has been repeatedly for decades. It shouldn't be, educational outcomes are very influenced by how parents and their culture places value (or not) on education, how they model it, and how they communicate to their children about it indirectly and directly. I'm remembering the story of when Chicago's school system was given a mandate to solve the huge problem of illiteracy and actually given ample funding to make it happen. They tried many things, training teachers, spending more $ per student on making schools better in general, upping salaries to attract better talent, and many other things. All these initiatives did not move the needle on the problem of illiteracy, all the things they changed did not seem to correlate to better literacy outcomes. * Finally they did find that the biggest predictor of literacy or illiteracy, the thing that had the strongest correlation if you will, was the number of books in a child's home. In other words, if parents valued literacy and books, it was the single biggest factor in whether or not a child would learn how to read.* Sadly, this is not something that is easily fixable by politicians, school systems, its admin, or its teachers.



I mean I feel like Ive already laid out the huge problems I have with culture in the US.

also I think you will acknowledge that such discussions take away from the thing that actually matters, which is the systemic issues. I will be glad to address the personal role of parents once the system itself has been righted. until then, completely uninterested. in the same way that Im uninterested in discussing turning off the lights or recycling re climate change, etc.

btw books in the home is probably proxying for socio-economic status as much as maternal education. it has been known for at least 30 years at this point that SES is probably an even stronger predictor of educational outcome than maternal education. so I dont think you can say that parents valuing books is the single biggest factor. if it is the biggest factor, it's not by much. FWIW my father did his post-doc on this subject in the 90s and by then it was already pretty well established and I know in econometrics they had already more or less decided that income mobility was a straight up fantasy by the time I got to my own graduate schooling.


----------



## chefwp

tcmx3 said:


> I mean I feel like Ive already laid out the huge problems I have with culture in the US.


Well, thanks for replying, I am not overly familiar with what you may have laid out in the past, so I appreciate the thoughtful reply. You definitely make some excellent points and I will absolutely acknowledge that fixing the systemic failures in the US is long overdue.


tcmx3 said:


> btw books in the home is probably proxying for socio-economic status as much as maternal education


^^^^this, yes, I was guilty of oversimplifying it a bit, good catch.


----------



## Barmoley

It is easy and popular to blame education and pretend that covid deniers or antivaxxers are just uneducated individuals. The reality is more complicated. The problem seems to be more wide spread and the issue seems to be too much information and inability to determine which sources are more valid than others. It used to be that experts were trusted somewhat blindly. If a doctor told the patient something, in most cases, the patient would listen. These days due to glut of easily accessible information many people think they are experts and it is actually difficult to determine which experts truly know what they are talking about. We are also more aware of all the "mistakes" the experts make which additionally undermines their trustworthiness. For example, CDC changed quarantine requirement from 10 days to 7 for healthcare workers to 5 days for everyone two weeks later. Now, former surgeon general criticizes CDC for shortening the quarantine period and current CDC director admits that they shortened the period to what they thought the people would be able to tolerate. The percentage of omicron cases was also drastically changed, so it is even less known how many people with omicron were hospitalized. At the time when experts are fighting other experts what should the nonexperts do?

As far as family values and culture being very important in education results, I very much believe it, being a product of such circumstances and seeing many examples of this in my surroundings. All anecdotal, you understand, but undoubtfully true in my small sample of people that only share the same culture and similar family values. The US is a melting pot of many cultures, and many different value systems, so to speak of it as a homogeneous, single culture would be a mistake. There are many issues with the education system that need to be fixed, but attitudes toward covid can't be explained by just education.


----------



## MarcelNL

I personally do not see experts discussing amongst peers as arguing or disagreeing/fighting, usually there are different view points. The whole science around this pandemic is not that black and white and the countermeasures are found in a largish gray zone where an optimum needs to found between tolerability and effectivity.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

The old food pyramid & attack on fat was gospel. It took more research to realize being sold a bill of goods. That and sizable lobby from sugar industry.


----------



## tcmx3

Barmoley said:


> As far as family values and culture being very important in education results, I very much believe it, being a product of such circumstances and seeing many examples of this in my surroundings. All anecdotal, you understand, but undoubtfully true in my small sample of people that only share the same culture and similar family values.



ok let's say I agree that the amount that caretakers value education and overall culture is important to educational outcomes. where do you rank them against:

socio-economic status
maternal and paternal educational achievement (not valuation, actual achievement)
access to high quality childcare locally, either an educated grandparent or facilities
quality of education (e.g. children in Massachusetts receive a far better public education than those in Texas just out of pure luck, and very wealthy kids are sent to private schools)
development disabilities
random life occurrences (e.g. I had a friend in highschool who was in all the same AP classes as me but his mom died and he didnt graduate on time and it derailed his life for a decade)



Keith Sinclair said:


> The old food pyramid & attack on fat was gospel. It took more research to realize being sold a bill of goods. That and sizable lobby from sugar industry.



this is exactly why publicly funded research, transparency in that funding, and free access to scientific publications that are funded by public grants should be the rule and not the exception.

it is also worth noting there is a difference between what is actually being found and the decisions that get made based on it. we can all agree here that the CDC shortening the quarantining requirements has nothing to do with any COVID research. it's just more evidence that under the thin, thin veneer of society it's just a huge machine and the current admin, just like the last, really just doesnt care if you die as long as you keep working.


----------



## Barmoley

MarcelNL said:


> I personally do not see experts discussing amongst peers as arguing or disagreeing/fighting, usually there are different view points. The whole science around this pandemic is not that black and white and the countermeasures are found in a largish gray zone where an optimum needs to found between tolerability and effectivity.


Maybe fighting is an incorrect term, but it sure feels like it when they just twit over each other. When they used to discuss behind close doors and laymen just saw the end result it felt more legit to most. I am not advocating for information to be unavailable to all, just illustrating why it is difficult even for well educated to determine whom to listen to.


----------



## ian

Barmoley said:


> When they used to discuss behind close doors and laymen just saw the end result it felt more legit to most.



That might be more a function of the media attention, unless I’m missing something specific. (If you’re saying a lot of people are tweeting at each other, idk anything about the public health twitter world so you can ignore this post.) Anyway, a lot of scientific disagreements happen out in the open, it’s just that noone usually cares.


----------



## MarcelNL

If I'm not misstaken I recall that the whole cholesterol/carb thingy was created by the old fashioned 'influencers' then called lobbyists for the meat industry and politicians/folks put in places by that weird system of political appointees, not because the data was not available.


----------



## Barmoley

ian said:


> That might be more a function of the media attention, unless I’m missing something specific. A lot of scientific disagreements happen out in the open, it’s just that noone usually cares.



It is a function of the media and more specifically social media. How would you know about disagreements of 2 physicists unless you were in the field? Major discoveries or decisions would get picked up or put in books, so if an outsider would start researching the subject they would most of the time just see the end result. Now politicians, scientists, doctors twit seemingly as soon as a thought occurs in their head. With covid being a very hot topic obviously, it feels like the public is getting information before it is ready. This is one of the reasons many are confused and don't know whom to trust.


----------



## MarcelNL

"the public' should put some more trust in panels of scientist to argue all aspects through to reach a consensus...it's what often happens in scientific meetings, a panel discussion with 'pro and con' for arguments sake....very informative and usually consensus is reached even there where you'd not expect it from the beginning!


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## Keith Sinclair

_Not saying it was a conspiracy at the time obesity was thought to be related to fat content & calories. It was just not the case. 

Agree it's not all black & white. To a large extent 
public school is babysitting. Many households both parents work. 

Here wealthy send kids to private schools % wise Hi. has more private schools. Although a couple 
private Catholic schools have closed for good 
because of covid. Even before Covid they were losing money. 

I went to public school in 1950's & 60's. I was bullied and had to toughen up. Even if you take a beating they wouldn't bother you anymore. Got a decent education. 

It's different now the world has changed a lot.
Come from a book culture still like to check out 
books from library. 

Two of my sister's were teachers public schools 
I know here some teachers go out of their way
without extra pay to teach & provide supplies for the poor kids. The DOE here is centralized in charge of all public schools in the State. It's a challenge. 

Watched my niece homeschool her kids during 
Covid shutdown. A lot was done on computer. 
Streaming has enabled more people to work at home & tools are there for kids to learn.




.










_


----------



## LostHighway

MarcelNL said:


> "the public' should put some more trust in panels of scientist to argue all aspects through to reach a consensus...it's what often happens in scientific meetings, a panel discussion with 'pro and con' for arguments sake....very informative and usually consensus is reached even there where you'd not expect it from the beginning!



Unfortunately, it seems that at least in the USA (I suspect true of the EU and Britian as well) bureaucrats are drawn into the equation. Case in point might be the recent FDA approval of the Biogen Alzheimer's drug aducanumab which had a very contentious approval process. Three FDA committee members resigned over the approval.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Never expected to see cases go up so fast in
December. We will see what new year brings.

Even though two shots & booster we are taking
it serious Masking, washing hands, using Disinfecting gel.

Don't want another shut down we have to learn to work through this.


----------



## MarcelNL

LostHighway said:


> Unfortunately, it seems that at least in the USA (I suspect true of the EU and Britian as well) bureaucrats are drawn into the equation. Case in point might be the recent FDA approval of the Biogen Alzheimer's drug aducanumab which had a very contentious approval process. Three FDA committee members resigned over the approval.


Sure, when FDA approvals are at stake anything goes..I was referring to 'panels of scientists' in general.
I have witnessed a unanimous vote by the scientific panel ignored by FDA from quite close up.

EDIT: and the vote of the panel was FOR the product....


----------



## Barmoley

Keith Sinclair said:


> Never expected to see cases go up so fast in
> December. We will see what new year brings.
> 
> Even though two shots & booster we are taking
> it serious Masking, washing hands, using Disinfecting gel.
> 
> Don't want another shut down we have to learn to work through this.


You should, so far it seems like booster protection against getting omicron vanes fast pretty low after 10 weeks. Most likely protects against severe desease longer. Because many will get omicron, hopefully it is less severe and will provide some meaningful protection against other variants.


----------



## chefwp

Barmoley said:


> It is a function of the media and more specifically social media.


Wouldn't it be nice if 'the media' returned to its very valuable role in society as the fourth estate providing a valuable framing and summarizing issues and politics while being an advocate for the public good. There is media I still trust to do that by and large, but they are flawed institutions as they always have been, but the combination of mass consolidation and the allegiance to chasing ratings for advertising dollars worries me.
It has been on the slide for a while. I remember in the 90s when it was still being publicly debated whether or not vaccines played a part in causing autism, you could count on CNN to inform the public by relying on panels of experts like a neurological research scientist on one side and Jenny McCarthy on the other, her credentials being that she was a Playboy centerfold and was married to a Hollywood celebrity. And of course her viewpoint got a lot more play because she was louder and angrier. SMDH


----------



## tcmx3

chefwp said:


> Wouldn't it be nice if 'the media' returned to its very valuable role in society as the fourth estate providing a valuable framing and summarizing issues and politics while being an advocate for the public good. There is media I still trust to do that by and large, but they are flawed institutions as they always have been, but the combination of mass consolidation and the allegiance to chasing ratings for advertising dollars worries me.
> It has been on the slide for a while. I remember in the 90s when it was still being publicly debated whether or not vaccines played a part in causing autism, you could count on CNN to inform the public by relying on panels of experts like a neurological research scientist on one side and Jenny McCarthy on the other, her credentials being that she was a Playboy centerfold and was married to a Hollywood celebrity. And of course her viewpoint got a lot more play because she was louder and angrier. SMDH



I agree the media needs to be WAY more critical. it's not just COVID right now, loads of these places are uncritically reporting literally made up stories about how "crime is up" when across the country there is just incontrovertible evidence that it's down. or the latest Tesla "advance" that is literally just a PR press release. or how "China" (insert whatever boogieman you want here). 

my personal joke is that if I ever feel like someone has aggrieved me and I get asked on cable news to immediately apologize to that person because there is now a huge likelihood that I am in fact the villain in the story.


----------



## Michi

chefwp said:


> you could count on CNN to inform the public by relying on panels of experts like a neurological research scientist on one side and Jenny McCarthy on the other


This is the kind of false balance that should have no place in media. We don't balance the meteorologist who delivers the weather report with someone who reads the tea leaves, either.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Here we have a pretty half Vietnamese half White well curved meteorologist. 

That's NBC liberal news network 

Then Fox channel Conservative started by muti media mega billions Rupert Murdoch.

Sometimes watch NHK world news & news on 
PBS station.


----------



## Barmoley

Michi said:


> This is the kind of false balance that should have no place in media. We don't balance the meteorologist who delivers the weather report with someone who reads the tea leaves, either.


Well, in this particular case they are about equal…….I kid, I kid


----------



## juice

chefwp said:


> Wouldn't it be nice if 'the media' returned to its very valuable role in society as the fourth estate providing a valuable framing and summarizing issues and politics while being an advocate for the public good.


Next, we talk about how to fund this, because that's the real problem. Eyeballs go to the loud and (usually) ignorant, not the thoughtful who aren't shouting.


----------



## MarcelNL

there are plenty of countries with publicly funded independent TV stations, not everything needs to be ruled by 'capitalism'; Germany, Netherlands, UK, etc you'd be surprised what those can produce even if not even that ensures total balance nor can it rule out all influence but still.


----------



## MarcelNL

Oh and those publicly funded stations are nowadays accompanied by commercial stations....I do not watch much TV to begin with but I avoid the commercial stations all together.


----------



## juice

MarcelNL said:


> there are plenty of countries with publicly funded independent TV stations, not everything needs to be ruled by 'capitalism'; Germany, Netherlands, UK, etc you'd be surprised what those can produce even if not even that ensures total balance nor can it rule out all influence but still.


Yes, and they're widely watched, I'm sure, same as the Govt-funded TV/radio down here. And no, I wouldn't be surprised.


----------



## chefwp

juice said:


> Next, we talk about how to fund this, because that's the real problem.


Agree, right now I have two digital subscriptions to national newspapers, the Washington Post and the New York Times. I don't need both, it is redundant. I grew up reading the Post so that is where my eyes mostly remain, but I toss the Times some money really because I want them to keep doing what they do, I think it is important. Neither paper is perfect, they have issues (some puns are intentional!), but they are decent and have been for a while. I was really concerned when Bezos bought a majority stake in the Post, but since then they have remained steady. The Post has a reputation for being liberal. My opinion is that is true when it comes to their editorial board, so if you are reading an op-ed and it is signed "the editorial board" there is a good chance it will be left-leaning. However, they fill their op-ed pages with a variety of voices from both the right and the left and their regular news I find to be unbiased for the most part. 

I don't consume much TV news, other than digital print I mostly listen to NPR which I find informative and mostly unbiased.


----------



## MarcelNL

Omicron surge is 'unlike anything we've ever seen,' expert says | CNN


An unprecedented spike in Covid-19 cases fueled by the fast-moving Omicron variant is crushing hospitals across the United States, with doctors describing packed emergency rooms as health experts implore New Year's Eve revelers to keep parties small and outdoors to help avert an even worse surge.




edition.cnn.com


----------



## Barmoley

Yeah, pretty much everyone I know has someone sick or test positive. All are vaccinated. So far fortunately no hospitalizations.


----------



## MarcelNL

same here, cases are running rampant....well, the situation is pretty much global I guess, a small delay here or there.


----------



## ian

We were trying to organize a very small outdoor midafternoon Dec 31 gathering, but noone can come because they’re “quarantining due to covid exposure”. Are people looking for an excuse because I’m a boring party host, or is there like a pandemic or something?


----------



## Barmoley

ian said:


> We were trying to organize a very small outdoor midafternoon Dec 31 gathering, but noone can come because they’re “quarantining due to covid exposure”. Are people looking for an excuse because I’m a boring party host, or is there like a pandemic or something?


One does not preclude the other, so impossible to say


----------



## Keith Sinclair

We will have a rainy new year. See if it dampens all the illegal fireworks in our area. 

I'll cook dinner we will stay in got a bottle of champagne.


----------



## gregfisk

My wife and I are also in quarantine waiting for my nephew to get his Covid test back. He decided that it was a good idea to come here not feeling well and get a rapid test after dropping off my sister and niece. This is after a 1.5 hour drive together mask less. This was on Christmas Eve so of course he couldn’t get a test. I didn’t have the heart to send them home so we all wore masks and kept our distance. I think we’re okay after 6 days but still don’t know for sure whether we were exposed or not.


----------



## EricEricEric

"And what we mean by that: _*If a child goes into the hospital, they automatically get tested for COVID and they get counted as a COVID-hospitalized individual, when, in fact, they may go in for a broken leg or appendicitis or something like that*_. So it’s over counting the number of children who are, quote, hospitalized with COVID as opposed to because of COVID," said Fauci.

Exactly what I’ve been telling you

This is the same with all of the adults that have been going in for the last two years as being diagnosed WITH Covid

The distinction when they say WITH, has to do with what the primary causes of death was. When they describe someone that has died WITH Covid it means they died from another cause but were Covid positive.

At all hospitals there are two different billing codes, one is for someone dying from Covid, the second is somebody dying WITH Covid

There’s a very important reason why there’s a distinction, if it was the same thing there would be zero distinction


----------



## gregfisk

EricEricEric said:


> "And what we mean by that: _*If a child goes into the hospital, they automatically get tested for COVID and they get counted as a COVID-hospitalized individual, when, in fact, they may go in for a broken leg or appendicitis or something like that*_. So it’s over counting the number of children who are, quote, hospitalized with COVID as opposed to because of COVID," said Fauci.
> 
> Exactly what I’ve been telling you
> 
> This is the same with all of the adults that have been going in for the last two years as being diagnosed WITH Covid
> 
> The distinction when they say WITH, has to do with what the primary causes of death was. When they describe someone that has died WITH Covid it means they died from another cause but were Covid positive.
> 
> At all hospitals there are two different billing codes, one is for someone dying from Covid, the second is somebody dying WITH Covid
> 
> There’s a very important reason why there’s a distinction, if it was the same thing there would be zero distinction




And somehow this matters because?


----------



## Barmoley

gregfisk said:


> And somehow this matters because?


It matters because it changes the narrative. Mostly though because you need accurate numbers when you make policy decisions. How severe or deadly covid is makes a difference, so knowing how many people die or are hospitalized due to it matters.

For example, we need to know how severe omicron variant is. How can you know this if you don't know how many people are hospitalized due to omicron vs having omicron when they happen to be hospitalized for any other reason? Omicron is very contagious even to vaccinated, so it is very likely that a hospitalized individual will test positive for it. It also seems to be mild, but how can we really tell if there is no distinction? During cold season if a person ended up in a hospital and was found to have a cold, would they be counted as being hospitalized due to cold? What about flu?

For almost 2 years people who raised the concern that there has to be a distinction for accurate accounting and decision making were called people haters, antivaxxers, etc and in general were attacked. Now, Fauci says the same thing, how can it not matter?


----------



## tcmx3

Barmoley said:


> For almost 2 years people who raised the concern that there has to be a distinction for accurate accounting and decision making were called people haters, antivaxxers, etc and in general were attacked. Now, Fauci says the same thing, how can it not matter?



I disagree with this characterization. Certainly that's been some people's viewpoints about how they've been treated, but in general people have been called out for things worth being called out for.

and it is an interesting framing anyway that Eric is always trying to sell, to try and say "well this person had something else see covid isnt so bad". tell that to the families of the dead. Im sure it will make up for the time that the covid comorbidity took away from them.


----------



## Barmoley

tcmx3 said:


> I disagree with this characterization. Certainly that's been some people's viewpoints about how they've been treated, but in general people have been called out for things worth being called out for.



I won't argue with you on this as there is no way for me to prove it one way or another. I could find examples of people being hated on, specifically for saying that there has to be a distinction in how we classify hospital patients that have covid. A good reason for being called out is a judgement call, so your opinion is as valid as mine. The general theme has been to shut down any questioning of vaccines, numbers and such and classify people not by actions, but also by the questions they ask. This I think is wrong, but again just my opinion.



tcmx3 said:


> and it is an interesting framing anyway that Eric is always trying to sell, to try and say "well this person had something else see covid isnt so bad". tell that to the families of the dead. Im sure it will make up for the time that the covid comorbidity took away from them.



I will not participate in personal attacks.

COVID is bad, for some very bad. To know how bad we have to be able to determine if a person died from it. How can someone say it doesn't matter if someone died from covid vs something else? This is even more important going forward, as new policy decisions will need to be made and omicron is very, very contagious. Should we lock down again, close schools, do more boosters? All these questions need to be answered so we need to know how severe latest covid variant is.



tcmx3 said:


> tell that to the families of the dead. Im sure it will make up for the time that the covid comorbidity took away from them.



This is a low blow type of an argument that can't be argued with. It also doesn't change the fact that we as a society need to know how deadly covid is.

It would be same if I said something like "tell that to the families that lost their loved ones due to drugs or suicide because of lock downs or job loss" these happened too. We should be able to discuss these things to make decisions that are best for the society as a whole.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

That & the fact that most of covid deaths have been persons with underlying conditions. Obese have a hard time breathing anyway for various reasons inactivity doesn't help either.


----------



## tcmx3

Barmoley said:


> I won't argue with you on this as there is no way for me to prove it one way or another. I could find examples of people being hated on, specifically for saying that there has to be a distinction in how we classify hospital patients that have covid. A good reason for being called out is a judgement call, so your opinion is as valid as mine. The general theme has been to shut down any questioning of vaccines, numbers and such and classify people not by actions, but also by the questions they ask. This I think is wrong, but again just my opinion.
> 
> 
> 
> I will not participate in personal attacks.
> 
> COVID is bad, for some very bad. To know how bad we have to be able to determine if a person died from it. How can someone say it doesn't matter if someone died from covid vs something else? This is even more important going forward, as new policy decisions will need to be made and omicron is very, very contagious. Should we lock down again, close schools, do more boosters? All these questions need to be answered so we need to know how severe latest covid variant is.
> 
> 
> 
> This is a low blow type of an argument that can't be argued with. It also doesn't change the fact that we as a society need to know how deadly covid is.
> 
> It would be same if I said something like "tell that to the families that lost their loved ones due to drugs or suicide because of lock downs or job loss" these happened too. We should be able to discuss these things to make decisions that are best for the society as a whole.



it's not a low blow or a personal attack just because you dont like it.

also please provide evidence that drug related deaths and/or suicides are 1. up over the lockdown periods 2. greater in areas with greater lockdowns and 3. that they are attributable to lockdowns.

just a quick google search suggests that suicides actually fell during the pandemic:








U.S. Suicides Fall for Second Year in a Row During Pandemic


Suicides fell in the U.S. for the second year in a row in 2020, even as the pandemic took an added toll on Americans’ mental health.




www.bloomberg.com





fwiw drug overdose deaths do appear to be up.

and I'm going to be real here, I do simply no longer believe that certain people are looking for accuracy. they are looking for anyway possible to minimize the lethality of COVID. in fact Ill go ahead and say that many of those people are in charge of the response and are justifying their heinously inadequate response (by two administrations in a row) having demonstrated again and again they value the SP500 over the lives of the people they are nominally responsible for protecting from exactly this sort of thing.

if the "COVID isnt as big a deal as people say" crowd wants to be taken in good faith they have to earn that back. that's a privilege they lost a long time ago.


----------



## Barmoley

tcmx3 said:


> it's not a low blow or a personal attack just because you dont like it.
> 
> also please provide evidence that drug related deaths and/or suicides are 1. up over the lockdown periods 2. greater in areas with greater lockdowns and 3. that they are attributable to lockdowns.
> 
> just a quick google search suggests that suicides actually fell during the pandemic:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> U.S. Suicides Fall for Second Year in a Row During Pandemic
> 
> 
> Suicides fell in the U.S. for the second year in a row in 2020, even as the pandemic took an added toll on Americans’ mental health.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bloomberg.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> fwiw drug overdose deaths do appear to be up.
> 
> and I'm going to be real here, I do simply no longer believe that certain people are looking for accuracy. they are looking for anyway possible to minimize the lethality of COVID. in fact Ill go ahead and say that many of those people are in charge of the response and are justifying their heinously inadequate response (by two administrations in a row) having demonstrated again and again they value the SP500 over the lives of the people they are nominally responsible for protecting from exactly this sort of thing.
> 
> if the "COVID isnt as big a deal as people say" crowd wants to be taken in good faith they have to earn that back. that's a privilege they lost a long time ago.


It's not about me liking it or not, that is totally irrelevant to the discussion. I can't argue that people and families have been hurt or destroyed by covid. When you say, "tell it to the families whose members have been taken early because of covid adding to their already poor health" there is absolutely nothing I can say. When we discuss policy making though and what to do next we need to know what the real numbers are. We don't lock down every flu season even though people with underlying conditions die with and because of flu. So should omicron and new variants be treated as we've been treating covid until now or should it be treated as flu or something else. To make these decisions we need good data.


----------



## ian

Anyone have a link to the full Fauci interview? This strikes me as the sort of quote that’s removed from a lot of other context and replayed all over the web. Presumably the point he’s making is that Omicron isn’t a child destroying plague? Seems like a lot of people are using this quote to dismiss covid, and that’s unsettling.

Def a good idea to find some way to distinguish between hospitalizations with covid and because of it, although I guess the distinction can be pretty complicated if it’s a disease and not like a broken leg or something. Then again, maybe you broke your leg because you sneezed from covid and fell out of the tree you were in…


----------



## tcmx3

Barmoley said:


> It's not about me liking it or not, that is totally irrelevant to the discussion. I can't argue that people and families have been hurt or destroyed by covid. When you say, "tell it to the families whose members have been taken early because of covid adding to their already poor health" there is absolutely nothing I can say. When we discuss policy making though and what to do next we need to know what the real numbers are. We don't lock down every flu season even though people with underlying conditions die with and because of flu. So should omicron and new variants be treated as we've been treating covid until now or should it be treated as flu or something else. To make these decisions we need good data.



Im sorry you're just never going to get me to agree that all these lay-people "just asking questions" are doing so because they really want to know the truth or at least something approximating it.

it's just so transparent that they just want to hear the answer that confirms their biases.

we're way too far into this for you to still be fighting that fight IMO, or still trying to use that spurious flu v covid debate we litigated thoroughly over a year ago.

some people are convinced that the numbers are being systematically overstated. the problem is that the position of the people measuring it is that they dgaf if people die just get back to work already. UI cut, quarantine period reduced "because it would be more palatable to employers", brinksmanship on loan repayment, etc. etc. etc. if you want me to buy a covid conspiracy vowel Id be more like to buy the one that says things are understated, not over. but then I dont, because I live statistics every day at work and over the years I have become an expert at knowing when people want to hear the answer or want to hear _their_ answer.


----------



## MarcelNL

It's all in the breakdown of the numbers...if IF let's say 10% of all people/kids whatever are infected with Covid and a few get hospitalized and get counted as due to Covid, how big is the effect on the overall Covid counter?


----------



## Barmoley

ian said:


> Anyone have a link to the full Fauci interview? This strikes me as the sort of quote that’s removed from a lot of other context and replayed all over the web. Presumably the point he’s making is that Omicron isn’t a child destroying plague? Seems like a lot of people are using this quote to dismiss covid, and that’s unsettling.
> 
> Def a good idea to find some way to distinguish between hospitalizations with covid and because of it, although I guess the distinction can be pretty complicated if it’s a disease and not like a broken leg or something. Then again, maybe you broke your leg because you sneezed from covid and fell out of the tree you were in…



Of course he is using this line of reasoning to illustrate that omicron is not a child destroying plague and it is correct line of reasoning. Same reasoning can be extended to adults though. Or are you saying children are different because they very seldom get seriously sick from covid unless they have serious underlying conditions? It is very difficult to determine if covid or any other disease was the final straw, so should we just not even try?


----------



## tcmx3

MarcelNL said:


> It's all in the breakdown of the numbers...if IF let's say 10% of all people/kids whatever are infected with Covid and a few get hospitalized and get counted as due to Covid, how big is the effect on the overall Covid counter?



case counts, at least "positive covid test results", are kind of irrelevant, frankly.

excess deaths, hospitalizations, long covid counts, that sort of thing matters.

I find it odd/frustrating/saddening that as one of the few professional statisticians around here that I always seem to be the one screaming at people to remember these aren't just numbers. that diabetic person? that was someone's dad. that cancer patient whose immune system couldn't keep up? that was someone's daughter. and now with omicron, increasingly, that's someone's child.

this is while people bicker in 2021 over the same "look see they had something else I told you so" bs we worked through ages ago. again, there are professionals measuring this stuff, they are very clear what and how they are measuring, and this conversation is a sickening side show IMO


----------



## ian

Barmoley said:


> Of course he is using this line of reasoning to illustrate that omicron is not a child destroying plague and it is correct line of reasoning. Same reasoning can be extended to adults though. Or are you saying children are different because they very seldom get seriously sick from covid unless they have serious underlying conditions? It is very difficult to determine if covid or any other disease was the final straw, so should we just not even try?



No, I’m just saying this could be part of a scare segment where someone was saying “Look at the number of child hospitalizations! Should we take them out of school??” And he’s giving a measured response, that then people pick parts of to support their arguments that covid isn’t a thing, e.g. in the comments section of that twitter post Eric linked. Was just curious about the context. Anyway, it’s great if the recent hospitalization numbers for kids are inflated. 

I totally support finding a good way to measure the probability that covid is the reason someone’s in the hospital! I was just mentioning that it’s not as simple as saying “Hey, this person came in here because of liver failure. Can’t be related to covid!” But I’m all for accurate numbers.


----------



## tcmx3

is it fair at this point to suggest that if you're going to claim that the measurements we've been using for nearly 2 years are inaccurate that you provide some actual empirical evidence for your claim?

just asking questions, of course.


----------



## MarcelNL

@tcmx3 you are right, I was just trying to illustrate the nonsensical aspect of the reasoning, not saying that the infection count means a lot.


----------



## Barmoley

tcmx3 said:


> Im sorry you're just never going to get me to agree that all these lay-people "just asking questions" are doing so because they really want to know the truth or at least something approximating it.
> 
> it's just so transparent that they just want to hear the answer that confirms their biases.
> 
> we're way too far into this for you to still be fighting that fight IMO, or still trying to use that spurious flu v covid debate we litigated thoroughly over a year ago.
> 
> some people are convinced that the numbers are being systematically overstated. the problem is that the position of the people measuring it is that they dgaf if people die just get back to work already. UI cut, quarantine period reduced "because it would be more palatable to employers", brinksmanship on loan repayment, etc. etc. etc. if you want me to buy a covid conspiracy vowel Id be more like to buy the one that says things are understated, not over. but then I dont, because I live statistics every day at work and over the years I have become an expert at knowing when people want to hear the answer or want to hear _their_ answer.



I am not saying covid is like flu. Omicron in the mostly vaccinated population might be, I don't know.

I looked at article you linked and it says that even though suicides went down by 3-5% if you look at the number break down you will see that they increased significantly for younger people. I could make an argument that young were the ones most affected by the lock downs, but of course I can't prove it. You also acknowledge that drug overdose seemed to go up, but if we look by how much we will see an about 25% - 28% increase. If we look further we will also see that classification of unintentional drug overdose vs suicide is not clearly defined. I am not an expert on the subject of suicide classification so I wouldn't be able to determine true percentages. As a statistics expert you should see how low the quality of the article you pointed to is. So we are all biased and we all try to use statistics to prove our point.


----------



## tcmx3

MarcelNL said:


> @tcmx3 you are right, I was just trying to illustrate the nonsensical aspect of the reasoning, not saying that the infection count means a lot.



dont worry, of all of the people around, Im not calling you out.



Barmoley said:


> I am not saying covid is like flu. Omicron in the mostly vaccinated population might be, I don't know.
> 
> I looked at article you linked and it says that even though suicides went down by 3-5% if you look at the number break down you will see that they increased significantly for younger people. I could make an argument that young were the ones most affected by the lock downs, but of course I can't prove it. You also acknowledge that drug overdose seemed to go up, but if we look by how much we will see an about 25% - 28% increase. If we look further we will also see that classification of unintentional drug overdose vs suicide is not clearly defined. I am not an expert on the subject of suicide classification so I wouldn't be able to determine true percentages. As a statistics expert you should see how low the quality of the article you pointed to is. So we are all biased and we all try to use statistics to prove our point.



lol we're doing this huh.

you pulled out the old "if we go into lockdowns there's going to be suicides" argument, with no evidence. I quickly pointed out how little effort it took to see that not only can you not show a causal link, you cant even demonstrate that suicides are up.

to suggest that I was using that article as evidence to prove the counter-point empirically is to severely misunderstand my point. like 100% miss the point. 

read again what I actually wrote:

_just a quick google search suggests that suicides actually fell during the pandemic:_

there's a lot you can criticize me for, this aint it.


----------



## Barmoley

tcmx3 said:


> dont worry, of all of the people around, Im not calling you out.
> 
> 
> 
> lol we're doing this huh.
> 
> you pulled out the old "if we go into lockdowns there's going to be suicides" argument, with no evidence. I quickly pointed out how little effort it took to see that not only can you not show a causal link, you cant even demonstrate that suicides are up.
> 
> to suggest that I was using that article as evidence to prove the counter-point empirically is to severely misunderstand my point. like 100% miss the point.
> 
> read again what I actually wrote:
> 
> _just a quick google search suggests that suicides actually fell during the pandemic:_
> 
> there's a lot you can criticize me for, this aint it.


Suicides among young adults and drug overdoses went up during the pandemic. Overall suicides went down by a few percent. If some of the drug overdoses get reclassified as suicides they will change the over all number of suicides. Am I wrong in any of this?

Now, my point you replied to wasn't even that I just used it as an example of an emotional argument of "it is someone's so and so" everyone is, yet when making policy it is impossible to try to save every person, so unfortunately it comes down to numbers. It doesn't mean I don't care, but I also realize this is how it is done.


----------



## VICTOR J CREAZZI

Wife "Do I look like I've gained weight during the lockdown?"
Husband "You weren't that slim to begin with"
Time of death; 11:17, Cause; Covid 19


----------



## tcmx3

this is an excellent, excellent example of why I dont normally engage in any talk about causal inference with untrained people.

I actually regret having spent my time on this lost cause.

edit: I can see from the reaction on my post that Barmoley has such an extreme case of main character syndrome that he still has not for one second applied any critical self-thought here. and this is why I have regret spending the time. cant fill a glass that's already full, especially if it's full of ****.


----------



## gregfisk

Yes, of course I understand. My point is in the big picture what really matters is that we do what we can to limit the deaths from Covid. A few thousand numbers one way or the other isn’t going to change what needs to be done to accomplish that goal. This post is just one more example of an argument against keeping people alive by down playing the severity of the situation.

Since several posts happened from the time I read the original post and answered I should clarify that I was responding to Ericx3’s original post.


----------



## daveb

IME the smartest person in the room is not the one insisting they are the smartest person in the room.


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> IME the smartest person in the room is not the one insisting they are the smartest person in the room.



well then isn't it fortunate that what matters is training and experience and not some vague notion of human intelligence?

now if only the people who didn't have those would realize they should be less convinced of the inherit value of their own opinions on those matters we could get somewhere.


----------



## M1k3

daveb said:


> IME the smartest person in the room is not the one insisting they are the smartest person in the room.


----------



## EricEricEric

I keep seeing a lot of information on this now in the news. I’m very curious as to how much weight is carried though. Then I saw the court filings as well and that really got my attention.

“A group including former Pfizer vice president Dr. Michael Yeadon filed a complaint with the International Criminal Court (ICC) (worth reading) on behalf of U.K. citizens against Boris Johnson and U.K. officials, Bill and Melinda Gates, CEOs of major pharmaceutical companies, World Economic Forum executive chairman Klaus Schwab, and others for crimes against humanity.

The ICC has acknowledged the case and has attributed the following reference number OTP-CR-473/21.”


“Sucharit Bhakdi, MD and Arne Burkhardt, MD
This text is a written summary of Dr. Bhakdi’s and Dr. Burkhardt’s presentations at the Doctors for COVID Ethics symposium that was live-streamed by UKColumn on December 10th, 2021. The two presentations can be viewed at the very beginning of the video recording of the symposium.
...
Conclusion
Histopathologic analysis show clear evidence of vaccine-induced autoimmune-like pathology in multiple organs. That myriad adverse events deriving from such auto-attack processes must be expected to very frequently occur in all individuals, particularly following booster injections, is self-evident.
Beyond any doubt, injection of gene-based COVID-19 vaccines places lives under threat of illness and death. We note that both mRNA and vector-based vaccines are represented among these cases, as are all four major manufacturers.”





https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/modern-day-censorship/covid-19-pharmaceutical-giants-gates-fauci-uk-officials-accused-of-crimes-against-humanity-in-international-criminal-court-complaint/






https://doctors4covidethics.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/end-covax.pdf


----------



## EricEricEric

View attachment 158658


----------



## MarcelNL

and the legal representation uses a hotmail account? REALLY?

By Dec 6th the vaccines had a proper approval, no longer a temp approval, it reeks of BS from the beginning to the end....

April 1st comes early this year, thanks for a good laugh to combat the slight self-induced hangover...


----------



## EricEricEric

Don’t get me wrong as I work in a hospital and I’m on my third jab already and thought the exact same thing as you, but I just keep seeing more and more VAERS reports coming through.

I’m really hoping there are no long term negative effects from the vaccinations


“The CDC's latest count of deaths attributed to COVID-19 vaccines is nearly 20,000, but a study by researchers at Columbia University estimates the actual number is 20 times higher.”

“Notably, adult vaccination increased ulterior mortality of unvaccinated young (<18, US; <15, Europe). Comparing our estimate with the CDC-reported VFR (0.002%) suggests VAERS deaths are underreported by a factor of 20, consistent with known VAERS under-ascertainment bias. Comparing our age-stratified VFRs with published age-stratified coronavirus infection fatality rates (IFR) suggests the risks of COVID vaccines and boosters outweigh the benefits in children, young adults and older adults with low occupational risk or previous coronavirus exposure.”



https://www.researchgate.net/publication/355581860_COVID_vaccination_and_age-stratified_all-cause_mortality_risk


----------



## Michi

Anyone can write a letter to the ICC and get an acknowledgement that the letter was received. Much the same as me getting a receipt every time I buy something at a shop. And this particular letter carries about as much weight as my grocery bill does.

Well done again, @EricEricEric, your cherry-picking skills are coming along nicely. What I find interesting is that it is quite difficult to find information about this particular complaint. Almost all the search results are for extreme right-wing or conspiracy theorist sites.

I'm sure that Johnson, Gates, _et al._ are really worried…


----------



## MarcelNL

sure....
You surely did notice that;

_Preprints and early-stage research may not have been peer reviewed yet._

and the 'article' originates from Oct....dude, I have a few articles in print and this is not how things work...


----------



## chefwp

excerpt from "May" in "Dave Barry's year in review, 2021 <link below>
:
⋅ Many Americans have been vaccinated but continue to act as though they have not.​​⋅ Many other Americans have not been vaccinated but act as though they have.​​⋅ Many of those who got vaccinated hate Donald Trump, who considers the vaccines to be one of his greatest achievements.​​⋅ Many who refuse to get vaccinated love Donald Trump.​​What do these facts tell us? They tell us that we, as a nation, are insane. But we knew that.​
Dave Barry is an American humorist, his articles are syndicated by many newpapers. Here is a link, if it is behind a paywall here you can try googling Dave Barry's year in review and you can probably get to it on some site that lets you access a few articles for free.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/magazine/2021/12/26/dave-barrys-year-review-2021/


----------



## Luftmensch

gregfisk said:


> And somehow this matters because?



I read @gregfisk's point, from a couple of pages ago, as meaning something like:

"This post is apropos of nothing. I don't understand how it fits in to the current flow of conversation.

We were having a linear conversation about the trouble the media was facing. We were also trying to get to the bottom of the very real and very important issue. Did @ian's guests decline the invitation because @ian is a boring party host. Or is @ian a boring party host and they declined for other reasons? How should we count the total number of guests that declined because @ian is a boring party host. And are we currently overcounting the number?"

... yet I feel @gregfisk's point was misinterpreted and launched some unproductive debate.

Given @EricEricEric's last few posts seem apropos of nothing... again... perhaps I might borrow @gregfisk's phrasing: these posts matter because?


----------



## daveb

tcmx3 said:


> now if only the people who didn't have those would realize they should be less convinced of the inherit value of their own opinions on those matters we could get somewhere.



Are you making my argument for me?


----------



## M1k3

Luftmensch said:


> I read @gregfisk's point, from a couple of pages ago, as meaning something like:
> 
> "This post is apropos of nothing. I don't understand how it fits in to the current flow of conversation.
> 
> We were having a linear conversation about the trouble the media was facing. We were also trying to get to the bottom of the very real and very important issue. Did @ian's guests decline the invitation because @ian is a boring party host. Or is @ian a boring party host and they declined for other reasons? How should we count the total number of guests that declined because @ian is a boring party host. And are we currently overcounting the number?"
> 
> ... yet I feel @gregfisk's point was misinterpreted and launched some unproductive debate.
> 
> Given @EricEricEric's last few posts seem apropos of nothing... again... perhaps I might borrow @gregfisk's phrasing: these posts matter because?


Did you tag @ian enough? Wonder if @ian has seen this? So have you @ian?


----------



## Luftmensch

Hey @ian. Read above. It has some reference to @ian that @ian might find interesting....

... @ian, @ian, @ian (@gregfisk)


----------



## Luftmensch

VICTOR J CREAZZI said:


> Wife "Do I look like I've gained weight during the lockdown?"
> Husband "You weren't that slim to begin with"
> Time of death; 11:17, Cause; Covid 19





I am not sure if the "do I look fat" trope is mildly misogynistic or not? Nevertheless, that joke is rather virulent and it is rare that I get to encounter a new variant. This one appeared genuinely novel to me and actually did make me chuckle. Maybe it was the context of the surrounding discussion.

The time of death in that joke is a little surreal. Given the last several pages of conversation seemed to have sprung from the "with vs because of..." question, I would tweak the joke to read:



> Wife "Do I look like I've gained weight during the lockdown?"
> Husband "You weren't that slim to begin with"
> Time of obesity; 11:17, Cause; Covid 19


----------



## sansho

chefwp said:


> ⋅ Many Americans have been vaccinated but continue to act as though they have not.​​⋅ Many other Americans have not been vaccinated but act as though they have.​



i wonder what "act[ing] as though they have [been vaccinated]" means.


----------



## daveb

It's humor. Don't dig too deep.

@ian Happy New Year!


----------



## EShin

EricEricEric said:


> I keep seeing a lot of information on this now in the news. I’m very curious as to how much weight is carried though. Then I saw the court filings as well and that really got my attention.
> 
> “A group including former Pfizer vice president Dr. Michael Yeadon filed a complaint with the International Criminal Court (ICC) (worth reading) on behalf of U.K. citizens against Boris Johnson and U.K. officials, Bill and Melinda Gates, CEOs of major pharmaceutical companies, World Economic Forum executive chairman Klaus Schwab, and others for crimes against humanity.
> 
> The ICC has acknowledged the case and has attributed the following reference number OTP-CR-473/21.”
> 
> 
> “Sucharit Bhakdi, MD and Arne Burkhardt, MD
> This text is a written summary of Dr. Bhakdi’s and Dr. Burkhardt’s presentations at the Doctors for COVID Ethics symposium that was live-streamed by UKColumn on December 10th, 2021. The two presentations can be viewed at the very beginning of the video recording of the symposium.
> ...
> Conclusion
> Histopathologic analysis show clear evidence of vaccine-induced autoimmune-like pathology in multiple organs. That myriad adverse events deriving from such auto-attack processes must be expected to very frequently occur in all individuals, particularly following booster injections, is self-evident.
> Beyond any doubt, injection of gene-based COVID-19 vaccines places lives under threat of illness and death. We note that both mRNA and vector-based vaccines are represented among these cases, as are all four major manufacturers.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/modern-day-censorship/covid-19-pharmaceutical-giants-gates-fauci-uk-officials-accused-of-crimes-against-humanity-in-international-criminal-court-complaint/
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://doctors4covidethics.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/end-covax.pdf
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 158659


What caused specific effects such as symptoms or deaths etc. is almost always very complex to analyze and there’s no absolute certainty but only probability. You cannot proof in absolute terms as the data set is never complete but at least you can falsify. So looking seriously at adverse effects, deaths etc. that are correlated with the coronavirus but also the vaccines etc. is very important as there’s always the chance that new data could change everything. Of course, scientists are often reluctant to acknowledge that, sometimes because they don’t want to change because of reputation, economical reasons etc, but sometimes because you need to be very sure that the new data is right and anomalous indeed. It’s much easier to spread doubt than to establish a valid interpretation, but also it’s much easier to get funding by backing established businesses, so when a lot of money is involved such as with vaccines, you need to be critical of both. Especially, be critical of yourself when searching for information as you’ll always find the information you’re looking for on the internet.

Dr. Michael Yeadon etc. have never shown any data that would back up their claims of serious adverse effects so they cannot be taken seriously. A quite neutral and well-researched report on him can be found here: The ex-Pfizer scientist who became an anti-vax hero.
Moreover, the current data is very clear that almost all Covid-related hospitalizations are either of non-vaccinated people or people who already were at high risk. No verdict on omicron variant yet but it looks to be similar.

I think we should be more concerned a growing social disparity such as children of low-income households who fall behind in schools or with the growing thinking that health is sterility, i.e. that we need to sterilize the environment and ourselves to be healthy.


----------



## Luftmensch

daveb said:


> @ian Happy New Year!




Thats true... I forgot to wish @ian happy new year....


----------



## ian

EricEricEric said:


> A group including former Pfizer vice president Dr. Michael Yeadon filed a complaint with the International Criminal Court (ICC) (worth reading) on behalf of U.K. citizens against Boris Johnson and U.K. officials, Bill and Melinda Gates, CEOs of major pharmaceutical companies, World Economic Forum executive chairman Klaus Schwab, and others for crimes against humanity.



FWIW, this way of referencing the article is misleading, since it seems to imply that this is a panel of experts including someone who used to work on the Pfizer vaccine. From what I can see, Michael Yeadon has never worked on vaccines, and has spent the last couple years mostly as an anti-vaccine activist, voicing multiple pretty out-there opinions that have been pretty roundly disproved by experts, e.g. that the vaccines make you magnetic.

Also, the rest of the panel consists of: a lawyer, an astrophysicist, a funeral director (hmmm.... maybe someone who has a stake in hindering vaccine distribution?), a retired police officer, an activist, and a nurse.

Given that the news story seems to be "These people submitted a piece of paper to the ICC after having it dismissed at all UK courts", I'm not inclined to read further. But let me know if there's a part of what they say that you think is compelling, and I'll check it out.


----------



## ian

Also, @everyone, .


----------



## Luftmensch

ian said:


> Also, @everyone, .







ian said:


> Are people looking for an excuse because I’m a boring party host



Sorry... Not to flog a dead horse. You're a witty dude. I am sure you are a generous host! Your joke reminded me of a recent scene from Curb. For those that like the show, the scene is pretty funny and true!


----------



## ian

Luftmensch said:


> Sorry... Not to flog a dead horse. You're a witty dude. I am sure you are a generous host! Your joke reminded me of a recent scene from Curb. For those that like the show, the scene is pretty funny and true!




Hah “Have you installed any new flooring or wood in your house recently?” “No.”


----------



## gregfisk

Resin, it can be whatever you want it to be.


----------



## ian

EricEricEric said:


> Don’t get me wrong as I work in a hospital and I’m on my third jab already and thought the exact same thing as you, but I just keep seeing more and more VAERS reports coming through.
> 
> I’m really hoping there are no long term negative effects from the vaccinations
> 
> 
> “The CDC's latest count of deaths attributed to COVID-19 vaccines is nearly 20,000, but a study by researchers at Columbia University estimates the actual number is 20 times higher.”
> 
> “Notably, adult vaccination increased ulterior mortality of unvaccinated young (<18, US; <15, Europe). Comparing our estimate with the CDC-reported VFR (0.002%) suggests VAERS deaths are underreported by a factor of 20, consistent with known VAERS under-ascertainment bias. Comparing our age-stratified VFRs with published age-stratified coronavirus infection fatality rates (IFR) suggests the risks of COVID vaccines and boosters outweigh the benefits in children, young adults and older adults with low occupational risk or previous coronavirus exposure.”
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.researchgate.net/publication/355581860_COVID_vaccination_and_age-stratified_all-cause_mortality_risk



This article seems a little interesting on first glance. Two comments:

1) I’m confused about VFR. From what I understand, the .0022% figure reflects the 10,000 people that have been reported to have died at some point after having had a vaccine. I’m not sure how long after the vaccine they stop reporting…. But it seems like a lot of people die each day in the US, so I’m not sure what to make of this number, other than to say that according to the CDC, deaths actually attributed to the vaccines are super low, like low double digits low. In any case, it’s then kind of frustrating that when this percentage gets cited by certain media outlets, they tend to refer to it as the number of deaths caused by vaccines.

2) It seems like what they did in the article is they just looked around the US (and elsewhere) at different regions and compared the number of vaccinations given in that region in a certain time period with the number of deaths in that region shortly after, and found some amount of correlation with the number of shots and the number of deaths, using various controls. That does sound like a worthwhile thing to do, although it doesn’t really prove anything. I’m not sure what to make of their statistical methods, and I find the fact that they’ve been rejected by a bunch of journals suspicious…. Seems to indicate that people that know more about this stuff than I do aren’t impressed with the study. Anyway, if this article gets reviewed, published, and experts start talking about it, I’ll pay attention.


----------



## stringer

EricEricEric said:


> Don’t get me wrong as I work in a hospital and I’m on my third jab already and thought the exact same thing as you, but I just keep seeing more and more VAERS reports coming through.
> 
> I’m really hoping there are no long term negative effects from the vaccinations
> 
> 
> “The CDC's latest count of deaths attributed to COVID-19 vaccines is nearly 20,000, but a study by researchers at Columbia University estimates the actual number is 20 times higher.”
> 
> “Notably, adult vaccination increased ulterior mortality of unvaccinated young (<18, US; <15, Europe). Comparing our estimate with the CDC-reported VFR (0.002%) suggests VAERS deaths are underreported by a factor of 20, consistent with known VAERS under-ascertainment bias. Comparing our age-stratified VFRs with published age-stratified coronavirus infection fatality rates (IFR) suggests the risks of COVID vaccines and boosters outweigh the benefits in children, young adults and older adults with low occupational risk or previous coronavirus exposure.”
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.researchgate.net/publication/355581860_COVID_vaccination_and_age-stratified_all-cause_mortality_risk



This virus isn't nearly as dangerous as a lack of media literacy.









PolitiFact - Federal VAERS database is a critical tool for researchers, but a breeding ground for misinformation


An Instagram post says: "6,000% Increase in Reported Vaccine Deaths 1st Quarter 2021 Compared to 1st Quarter 2020.&




www.politifact.com


----------



## tcmx3

ian said:


> 1) I’m confused about VFR. From what I understand, the .0022% figure reflects the 10,000 people that have been reported to have died at some point after having had a vaccine. I’m not sure how long after the vaccine they stop reporting…. But it seems like a lot of people die each day in the US, so I’m not sure what to make of this number, other than to say that according to the CDC, deaths actually attributed to the vaccines are super low, like low double digits low. In any case, it’s then kind of frustrating that when this percentage gets cited by certain media outlets, they tend to refer to it as the number of deaths caused by vaccines.



if you look at their github (which they link), given that they commented it all, it sure looks like a GLM of deaths against vaccine rates with a one month lag.

ok gonna tone it down because the first author is a professional; this strikes me as inadequately sophisticated to solve the problem stated.

oh, not that you cant use prior-time periods to control for that a little bit but the phrase "all deaths over the last period's count are vaccine related" should be obviously dubious to everyone.

in arguing against mass vaccination in the article itself, they seem to want to count deaths due to covid because the vaccine actually raises your risk of contracting it if exposed as being because of the vaccine. really interesting one that.

anyway it would probably take me a solid work day to go through this but since there are journal reviewers Ill just leave it at saying it doesnt pass the smell test.


----------



## MarcelNL

There is a system in place to track side effects for ANY registered drug in pretty much every developed country in the world, faulty as it may be due to underreporting, poor quality of the reports made by professionals (don't get me started on that) and a number of other issues....the sheer numbers make it work, especially for the vaccines that have been administered in incredibly high numbers in a very short period of time.

If there was a clear (safety) signal it must have been picked up by the various national drug safety systems even if the pharmaceutical company responsible for the vaccin did not...(just saying as there is no way to suppress or ignore that data)


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Just watched on Netflix (Don't Look Up) I'm sure some of you have seen it .

It's strong satire comedy of our social media culture. Some comedy i enjoy like movies that make me laugh. I got a few watching this one.

After since it was a popular watched movie read reviews on it. Reviews all over the place many negative I guess it would push a few buttons.


----------



## ian

MarcelNL said:


> There is a system in place to track side effects for ANY registered drug in pretty much every developed country in the world, faulty as it may be due to underreporting, poor quality of the reports made by professionals (don't get me started on that) and a number of other issues....the sheer numbers make it work, especially for the vaccines that have been administered in incredibly high numbers in a very short period of time.
> 
> If there was a clear (safety) signal it must have been picked up by the various national drug safety systems even if the pharmaceutical company responsible for the vaccin did not...(just saying as there is no way to suppress or ignore that data)



Hmm, I’m not sure “there’s a system in place” is a strong argument on its own against studies of safety from other angles, as long as those studies are well constructed.

The one Eric mentioned does seem unsophisticated, and the way the authors talk about their conclusions in the intro seems a little strong for my tastes. Also, I’m confused about how many controls they’re using, since it seems reasonable that a covid outbreak in the community would inspire people to get vaccinated, but would also cause deaths. Anyway, the strongest conclusion that this study could have (even if correct and adequately controlled) is “hey, maybe it’d be cool to study safety more”, so it’s overblown in the media, especially since it hasn’t been published yet. Conclusion: time to stop talking about it for the time being.


----------



## EricEricEric

More evidence supporting masks, isolation, and vaccines are not working







But good news is that the new variant looks to be similar to the common cold in its effects, but helps create anti-bodies against the other variants.


----------



## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> More evidence supporting masks, isolation, and vaccines are not working


I don't see how those graphs support your statement.

As to vaccines not working, here are recent figures of hospitalisations of vaccinated and unvaccinated people. Any statement claiming that vaccines don't work is BS, according to those figures.



https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/data-tables/421-010-CasesInNotFullyVaccinated.pdf


----------



## tcmx3

EricEricEric said:


> More evidence supporting masks, isolation, and vaccines are not working
> 
> View attachment 158723
> 
> 
> But good news is that the new variant looks to be similar to the common cold in its effects, but helps create anti-bodies against the other variants.
> 
> View attachment 158724
> View attachment 158725
> View attachment 158726







__





Post hoc ergo propter hoc - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org


----------



## MarcelNL

Even if someone does not believe the 'official data' because of whatever conspiracy theory or whatever else, I work with folks running ICU's and their verdict is unanimous; the vast bulk of Covid patients they see is NOT vaccinated and those vaccinated mostly have one or more severe comorbidities, usually one affecting their immune system.

So perhaps it's a good idea to go to the source and check where the data comes from first.


----------



## Michi

MarcelNL said:


> So perhaps it's a good idea to go to the source and check where the data comes from first.


@EricEricEric isn't into sources.


----------



## gregfisk

MarcelNL said:


> Even if someone does not believe the 'official data' because of whatever conspiracy theory or whatever else, I work with folks running ICU's and their verdict is unanimous; the vast bulk of Covid patients they see is NOT vaccinated and those vaccinated mostly have one or more severe comorbidities, usually one affecting their immune system.
> 
> So perhaps it's a good idea to go to the source and check where the data comes from first.



In my small world in the Seattle area my friend is a senior pharmacist at one of UW Medical Center’s large Hospitals. Her reality is exactly what you posted above. Everyone in the ICU with Covid is unvaccinated, or they are vaccinated but also have other serious medical issues.

My question is this. Why are people spending time and energy trying to downplay the severity of the pandemic and the benefits of the vaccines? It’s obvious to anyone who is working on the front lines, or for that matter anyone who is paying attention, that the vaccines work and the pandemic is very serious and very real. I also don’t understand how someone can work in a hospital and not be aware of this reality. Unless perhaps they work in the cafeteria or in the janitorial department.


----------



## MarcelNL

Denial is the first phase of a mourning process....that is as close I can get to an explanation for what I think is totally irrational behavior...


----------



## LostHighway

gregfisk said:


> I also don’t understand how someone can work in a hospital and not be aware of this reality. Unless perhaps they work in the cafeteria or in the janitorial department.



You forgot the business office. I suspect the janitors are quite well informed.


----------



## EShin

MarcelNL said:


> Even if someone does not believe the 'official data' because of whatever conspiracy theory or whatever else, I work with folks running ICU's and their verdict is unanimous; the vast bulk of Covid patients they see is NOT vaccinated and those vaccinated mostly have one or more severe comorbidities, usually one affecting their immune system.
> 
> So perhaps it's a good idea to go to the source and check where the data comes from first.


Was told almost exactly the same by a friend who did some studies in various hospitals by analyzing the blood samples of basically all patients. Whether we like it or not, the data is quite clear at this point.




EricEricEric said:


> More evidence supporting masks, isolation, and vaccines are not working
> 
> View attachment 158723
> 
> 
> But good news is that the new variant looks to be similar to the common cold in its effects, but helps create anti-bodies against the other variants.
> 
> View attachment 158724
> View attachment 158725
> View attachment 158726


There can be a discussion on efficacy vs. negative effects of measurements such as isolation, lockdowns, masks or vaccines, but what that graph shows is some correlation but no evidence whatsoever. Every time you post someone happens to die. Is this correlation evidence that you’re a murderer? Obviously not.


----------



## gregfisk

My little sister works for a large blood bank. Her job is to draw blood from donors and people who need blood drawn. Because she works to some degree in the medical field she seems to think she knows more than the average person. She told me at Christmas while at my house that she’s not going to get the booster. She said that since she now understands that Covid deaths are the same as the flu she no longer sees a reason to get it. Of course the comparison to the flu was debunked at the beginning of all of this. I can’t figure out how she’s just now coming to this conclusion? I wonder if the people that work around the professionals have their own talking circles that don’t reflect the reality of the situation. And perhaps are getting their talking points from places like Facebook.


----------



## MarcelNL

Let's just face it; the whole situation is a LOT to cope with, it's a major event that as such is new to most of us...perhaps except for the few who dealt with acute life threatening events before.
So most of us enter an acute situation, where mourning about the past (much more comfortable and definitely more clear and seemingly more controllable) situation is near.

From there on it's a guess what people do to make it go away (denial), I suspect that distortion of the evidence at hand is a form of cognitive dissonance reduction.




__





Cognitive Dissonance: Definition and Examples - Simply Psychology
 





www.simplypsychology.org


----------



## ian

EricEricEric said:


> More evidence supporting masks, isolation, and vaccines are not working
> 
> View attachment 158723
> 
> 
> But good news is that the new variant looks to be similar to the common cold in its effects, but helps create anti-bodies against the other variants.
> 
> View attachment 158724
> View attachment 158725
> View attachment 158726






EShin said:


> There can be a discussion on efficacy vs. negative effects of measurements such as isolation, lockdowns, masks or vaccines, but what that graph shows is some correlation but no evidence whatsoever. Every time you post someone happens to die. Is this correlation evidence that you’re a murderer? Obviously not.



It’s not even just mysterious correlation, it’s totally what you’d expect to see. Changes in mitigation measures usually happen when crises are expected, so yea, it’s no surprise that cases/deaths are up afterwards.


----------



## KJDedge

Maybe what he is saying is that the masks, isolation, and vaccinations are not effectively stopping the spreading of the virus..
it’s without question that the vaccines are limiting the deaths and severe illness…
it is also without question that the masks, isolation, and vaccines are not stopping the spreading…


----------



## ian

The phrase he used was “not working”. Unless you have totally unrealistic expectations, “working” means decreasing spread, not stopping it.


----------



## KJDedge

Also, do you people remember your idiotic rants about Sweden vs the other scandi countries?…look at current active cases..
double and triple Sweden’s with half the population…severe cases similar…. I think the final outcomes will prove to be quite similar across all the populations…
Sweden chose a certain path for their society, others different…
only time will tell which strategy was better from total perspective of disease, excess mortality, depression increase etc… to proselytize and make judgements is quite ignorant… none of us know what approach is correct and only with the advantage of history will a somewhat knowledgeable answer be ascertained…


----------



## Midsummer

ian said:


> The phrase he used was “not working”. Unless you have totally unrealistic expectations, “working” means decreasing spread, not stopping it.



Not to antagonize or support any other argument; but I would agree with deceasing the "rate" of spread but I harbor doubts about decreasing the "extent" of spread.


----------



## KJDedge

ian said:


> The phrase he used was “not working”. Unless you have totally unrealistic expectations, “working” means decreasing spread, not stopping it.


you Actually have no idea or proof if it’s decreasing the spreading..
none whatsoever….to suggest otherwise is ludicrous..


----------



## KJDedge

But if any of you want to believe that these ineffective cloth masks
half of which are hanging below the nose, are helping….
believe away…


----------



## Sdo

Contradiction at its best. 

It is a privilege to have such covid specialists around here.


----------



## ian

KJDedge said:


> you Actually have no idea or proof if it’s decreasing the spreading..
> none whatsoever….to suggest otherwise is ludicrous..



It's true that we have no data about what the pandemic would be like if noone wore masks, because that hasn't happened. However, we do have data about how effective masks are in controlled experiments, and all that data shows that they help. So, why do you want to believe (without any evidence) that the results of these experiments don't transfer to the real world? It seems like the main argument against masks given in this thread is "hey, look at all the covid cases", which is exactly the kind of argument you are saying is ludicrous.



KJDedge said:


> But if any of you want to believe that these ineffective cloth masks
> half of which are hanging below the nose, are helping….
> believe away…



I don't think many of us believe incorrectly worn cloth masks help a lot. Usually, the people wearing those kind of masks are exactly the people that believe masks don't work, and are just trying to obey the letter of whatever mask mandate is in effect. I do believe that my correctly worn N95s help.


----------



## ian

Midsummer said:


> Not to antagonize or support any other argument; but I would agree with deceasing the "rate" of spread but I harbor doubts about decreasing the "extent" of spread.



Good distinction. The rate is super important tho.


----------



## Todd762

i posted on this thread asking about Omnicron earlier. I’ve been vaccinated and had a booster early last month. I wear a properly fitted cloth mask out, not a N95 when I go out. 

I thought about 7 days ago I had a severe cold and went to the clinic because I couldn’t sleep at night. I was tested and got a positive return. Kind of shocked me because I had covid in late 2020 and the symptoms were different, didn’t think to consider Omnicron. 

I called to get a test for my wife and was told the Dr had to order it based on symptoms when she came in for an appointment and they were booked the next two days. That left my options to a home test kit, CVS, or wait to get in. I think the numbers are higher than reported because there is a lack of testing compared to a year ago. Also look how fast this spread out of S African in a global society. 

So I’ve had my vaccination, booster, recovered from Covid, and took precautions I don’t have to in my state because I wanted to visit my parents safely. I then spread it to my wife who is vaccinated. I mask for my parents and the elderly in the grocery store that might someone else’s parents or have a underlying health issue putting them at higher risk. I’m honestly not too concerned with my risk when I consider age and health history. 

This virus mutates regardless of weather/season. I believe based on experience the future statistics will show a high percentage of vaccinated break through cases with Omicron. While the vaccine might assist in preventing serious illness requiring hospitalization, I don’t think it is very effective against the Omicron variant transmission. Its highly contagious, presents less severe symptoms in my case (masking itself as a severe cold) and reports are in the news of many asymptomatic people. Once again, reference is made to the lack of testing availability compared to earlier in the pandemic. 

Why is the isolation time being reduced? Why are there news articles that mention test kits as part of testing to remove yourself from isolation after exposure? I seriously doubt the home kit is as effective and accurate as the infamous brain swab. CNN reports the CdC will be making a statement addressing its guidance “soon”. 

It’s because we can’t afford to shut down again. There will be no relief package like the last one which also resulted in billions of taxpayer dollars in fraud that will never be recovered. Inflation is here and I can feel it with a dual income and no children. I’m fortunate enough that we can afford to buy occasional luxuries like crab legs which is kind of our tradition on New Years. They were $39 a pound, tradition broken. I saw Ikea is raising store prices 9%. If I were raising children, I’d really fee it. 

If China can’t prevent it with lockdowns they have done on the scale of Wuhan and Xi’an, then no one can. There are reports of Xi’an citizens confined without adequate food/supplies. Samsung is scrambling because that area produces a lot of their chips needed for cellphones/other products, they invested billions into the facilities there. 99% of counties wouldn’t put up the lockdowns that Chia imposes on their citizens, the second your child started to go hungry, you’d be out. 

Covid is here for a loooong time, possibly forever. I’ve always pointed out to co-workers that total transparency is honesty. China has been less than openly transparent on the origins of this and their notification to the international community when the outbreak occurred. If the US reaction were the same, we would be before The Hague answering questions. 

i do think some rules are silly. Like when I am in an aircraft shoulder to shoulder wearing a mask on a flight but allowed to remove it to eat or drink. i’d be a little more receptive of it if the airline kept the middle seat open like they used to, but they needed to stay in business and make a profit so that went away. I also think if your going to mask, the only truly effective one is a N95. Let’s not forget at the beginning of the pandemic they didn’t have enough N95s for healthcare. My wife’s a nurse, at the time I asked what the hospital supply was and she said a week. Reliance on “just in time” shipping. Two days later there were emails in how nurses could make their own cloth masks. This nation was totally unprepared. 

At some point people are going to have to fully return. Our nation dropped the ball big time on testing, they didn’t foresee Omicron coming! Common sense is that in a global society it’s going to spread faster due to international travel, shipping, immigration. 

Honestly I think my half dose would of been better served in a country suffering from vaccine disparity. It’s here, not going anywhere, and will mutate again. The divide it’s created in this country is also a casualty of the pandemic.


----------



## KJDedge

ian said:


> It's true that we have no data about what the pandemic would be like if noone wore masks, because that hasn't happened. However, we do have data about how effective masks are in controlled experiments, and all that data shows that they help. So, why do you want to believe (without any evidence) that the results of these experiments don't transfer to the real world? It seems like the main argument against masks given in this thread is "hey, look at all the covid cases", which is exactly the kind of argument you are saying is ludicrous.
> 
> 
> 
> I don't think many of us believe incorrectly worn cloth masks help a lot. Usually, the people wearing those kind of masks are exactly the people that believe masks don't work, and are just trying to obey the letter of whatever mask mandate is in effect. I do believe that my correctly worn N95s help.


are you one of Those people who think having A mask mandate to enter or move about in a restaurant is a good idea and helping?
only to have everyone remove it for hours and spew virus while they eat?…. The mask mandates are applied non scientifically and ineffective at best…. in any event, hopefully we all get this pandemic behind us eventually and return to some normalcy….


----------



## tcmx3

Todd762 said:


> It’s because we can’t afford to shut down again. There will be no relief package like the last one which also resulted in billions of taxpayer dollars in fraud that will never be recovered. Inflation is here and I can feel it with a dual income and no children. I’m fortunate enough that we can afford to buy occasional luxuries like crab legs which is kind of our tradition on New Years. They were $39 a pound, tradition broken. I saw Ikea is raising store prices 9%. If I were raising children, I’d really fee it.



The US can easily afford another lockdown, and while yes, there were billions of dollars in fraud, so what? Billions of dollars is actually nothing to the US govt. We used to just lose pallets of cash in Afghanistan and no one even cared so as long as the grifters are spending their money at Publix then it isnt such a big deal. Defrauding, or at least grifting off of, the US government is a huge percentage of the US economy anyway.

Again before we get so convinced that there is permanent inflation let's maybe try to get the supply chain, especially for food, moving again before we make any regrettable policy decisions.

It doesnt track for me that inflation is being caused by the normal means anyway; with UI benefits cut and most of the money being made right now going towards insane real estate prices and the stock market (ie capital and therefore owned by people who empirically save at a far greater rate than other people) it is just way easier to believe that the upward price pressure is a temporary side effect of being unable to move **** off boats.


----------



## ian

KJDedge said:


> are you one of Those people who think having A mask mandate to enter or move about in a restaurant is a good idea and helping?
> only to have everyone remove it for hours and spew virus while they eat?…. The mask mandates are applied non scientifically and ineffective at best…. in any event, hopefully we all get this pandemic behind us eventually and return to some normalcy….



I think having a mask mandate for dine-in customers inside restaurants is a little pointless. However, it's possible that it'd be useful in certain situations, like if the bathroom is down a hall right next to the kitchen, in which case maybe it'd make things safer for restaurant workers that don't normally have customer contact. Alternatively, it could be useful if most of the restaurant's dine-in customers sit outside on a patio, and they only come in for the bathroom. In any case, though, I don't think it's useful to take the situation in which masking is least effective and try to use it to argue that masking in general is ineffective.

Here's to getting the pandemic behind us, though.


----------



## M1k3

EricEricEric said:


> Don’t get me wrong as I work in a hospital and I’m on my third jab already and thought the exact same thing as you, but I just keep seeing more and more VAERS reports coming through.
> 
> I’m really hoping there are no long term negative effects from the vaccinations
> 
> 
> “The CDC's latest count of deaths attributed to COVID-19 vaccines is nearly 20,000, but a study by researchers at Columbia University estimates the actual number is 20 times higher.”
> 
> “Notably, adult vaccination increased ulterior mortality of unvaccinated young (<18, US; <15, Europe). Comparing our estimate with the CDC-reported VFR (0.002%) suggests VAERS deaths are underreported by a factor of 20, consistent with known VAERS under-ascertainment bias. Comparing our age-stratified VFRs with published age-stratified coronavirus infection fatality rates (IFR) suggests the risks of COVID vaccines and boosters outweigh the benefits in children, young adults and older adults with low occupational risk or previous coronavirus exposure.”
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.researchgate.net/publication/355581860_COVID_vaccination_and_age-stratified_all-cause_mortality_risk


From the VAERS website.

"While very important in monitoring vaccine safety, VAERS reports alone cannot be used to determine if a vaccine caused or contributed to an adverse event or illness. The reports may contain information that is incomplete, inaccurate, coincidental, or unverifiable. In large part, reports to VAERS are voluntary, which means they are subject to biases."


----------



## MarcelNL

typical example of what a spontaneous reported side effect may look like:

on day x (unknown) A patient male/female (unknown), DOB (unknown) height unknown, weight unknown, was reported to have suffered from a moderate itch, location unknown extent unknown, duration unknown, outcome unknown after receiving a dose of whateverdrugname (total daily dose unknown, start date unknown duration unknown).
relatedness; likely

Do not get fooled thinking this is a small minority of the reports....so hats of to the pharmocovigilance/drug safety groups in pharma and their counterparts in various governmental departments.

BUT given the huge number of doses administered safety effects should be picked up pretty effectively as the data are closely monitored.

Some good news, our primary and secondary school kids can return to school next week


----------



## Barmoley

Todd762 said:


> i posted on this thread asking about Omnicron earlier. I’ve been vaccinated and had a booster early last month. I wear a properly fitted cloth mask out, not a N95 when I go out.
> 
> I thought about 7 days ago I had a severe cold and went to the clinic because I couldn’t sleep at night. I was tested and got a positive return. Kind of shocked me because I had covid in late 2020 and the symptoms were different, didn’t think to consider Omnicron.
> 
> I called to get a test for my wife and was told the Dr had to order it based on symptoms when she came in for an appointment and they were booked the next two days. That left my options to a home test kit, CVS, or wait to get in. I think the numbers are higher than reported because there is a lack of testing compared to a year ago. Also look how fast this spread out of S African in a global society.
> 
> So I’ve had my vaccination, booster, recovered from Covid, and took precautions I don’t have to in my state because I wanted to visit my parents safely. I then spread it to my wife who is vaccinated. I mask for my parents and the elderly in the grocery store that might someone else’s parents or have a underlying health issue putting them at higher risk. I’m honestly not too concerned with my risk when I consider age and health history.
> 
> This virus mutates regardless of weather/season. I believe based on experience the future statistics will show a high percentage of vaccinated break through cases with Omicron. While the vaccine might assist in preventing serious illness requiring hospitalization, I don’t think it is very effective against the Omicron variant transmission. Its highly contagious, presents less severe symptoms in my case (masking itself as a severe cold) and reports are in the news of many asymptomatic people. Once again, reference is made to the lack of testing availability compared to earlier in the pandemic.
> 
> Why is the isolation time being reduced? Why are there news articles that mention test kits as part of testing to remove yourself from isolation after exposure? I seriously doubt the home kit is as effective and accurate as the infamous brain swab. CNN reports the CdC will be making a statement addressing its guidance “soon”.
> 
> It’s because we can’t afford to shut down again. There will be no relief package like the last one which also resulted in billions of taxpayer dollars in fraud that will never be recovered. Inflation is here and I can feel it with a dual income and no children. I’m fortunate enough that we can afford to buy occasional luxuries like crab legs which is kind of our tradition on New Years. They were $39 a pound, tradition broken. I saw Ikea is raising store prices 9%. If I were raising children, I’d really fee it.
> 
> If China can’t prevent it with lockdowns they have done on the scale of Wuhan and Xi’an, then no one can. There are reports of Xi’an citizens confined without adequate food/supplies. Samsung is scrambling because that area produces a lot of their chips needed for cellphones/other products, they invested billions into the facilities there. 99% of counties wouldn’t put up the lockdowns that Chia imposes on their citizens, the second your child started to go hungry, you’d be out.
> 
> Covid is here for a loooong time, possibly forever. I’ve always pointed out to co-workers that total transparency is honesty. China has been less than openly transparent on the origins of this and their notification to the international community when the outbreak occurred. If the US reaction were the same, we would be before The Hague answering questions.
> 
> i do think some rules are silly. Like when I am in an aircraft shoulder to shoulder wearing a mask on a flight but allowed to remove it to eat or drink. i’d be a little more receptive of it if the airline kept the middle seat open like they used to, but they needed to stay in business and make a profit so that went away. I also think if your going to mask, the only truly effective one is a N95. Let’s not forget at the beginning of the pandemic they didn’t have enough N95s for healthcare. My wife’s a nurse, at the time I asked what the hospital supply was and she said a week. Reliance on “just in time” shipping. Two days later there were emails in how nurses could make their own cloth masks. This nation was totally unprepared.
> 
> At some point people are going to have to fully return. Our nation dropped the ball big time on testing, they didn’t foresee Omicron coming! Common sense is that in a global society it’s going to spread faster due to international travel, shipping, immigration.
> 
> Honestly I think my half dose would of been better served in a country suffering from vaccine disparity. It’s here, not going anywhere, and will mutate again. The divide it’s created in this country is also a casualty of the pandemic.


Omicron is very contagious and vaccines don't protect against getting it very well. From different reports it appears that recent vaccination or booster does protect against getting it to a higher degree, but this protection decreases shortly. Early reports on Pfizer booster seem to indicate that protection from transmission is down to around 30-35% after 10 weeks. On the bright side it appears that vaccines still protect against severe disease even with Omicron and at the end of the day this is the goal not transmission necessarily. Omicron also seems to be less severe overall even for unvaccinated and large portion of the population is vaccinated. Of course, because it is so contagious we are seeing increases in hospitalizations anyway, purely from the very high numbers of people getting it. Omicron also seems to provide some meaningful protection from Delta, so it seems like it will become the dominant variant, will infect many and hopefully provide protection against other variants. Hopefully, it will also prove to be less severe overall, so that we can start treating covid as other less dangerous diseases and move on with our lives. This will take time, but hopefully not too long. Masks and especially N95s worn properly should provide some protection, the main problem being "worn properly". I see people wear N95s incorrectly all the time and most people don't wear N95s anyway. Masks for restaurant clients are stupid from a disease control stand point, but they couldn't exclude restaurants, since other businesses would complain. Unfortunately, a lot of hokey stuff is going on around covid a lot of hand waving and illogical decisions going on by all involved. A lot of claims of using science when clearly science has nothing to do with some decisions. It is hard, decisions need to be made and science takes time, moreover when we discover new things science changes, so it is understandable that you can't always follow science when needing to make quick decisions. I just wish some people stopped claiming that the science is being followed in the cases it is clearly not being followed.


----------



## dAtron

Barmoley said:


> I see people wear N95s incorrectly all the time and most people don't wear N95s anyway.



Just to add to this.
Even if you think you're wearing it properly, unless you have been mask fitted it still might not provide full protection.


----------



## chefwp

South Park nails the Zeitgeist again


----------



## gregfisk

ian said:


> I think having a mask mandate for dine-in customers inside restaurants is a little pointless. However, it's possible that it'd be useful in certain situations, like if the bathroom is down a hall right next to the kitchen, in which case maybe it'd make things safer for restaurant workers that don't normally have customer contact. Alternatively, it could be useful if most of the restaurant's dine-in customers sit outside on a patio, and they only come in for the bathroom. In any case, though, I don't think it's useful to take the situation in which masking is least effective and try to use it to argue that masking in general is ineffective.
> 
> Here's to getting the pandemic behind us, though.



This is an excellent point. I agree some of the rules seem silly but as many of us grew up hearing, it’s better to be safe than sorry.


----------



## MarcelNL

as one of the prominent virologists informed; outbreak management is not done via a few key measures but we need a fair number of them in parallel, each one may not be very effective but the sum of all does the trick, we hope.


----------



## Barmoley

dAtron said:


> Just to add to this.
> Even if you think you're wearing it properly, unless you have been mask fitted it still might not provide full protection.


The thing is that even if it doesn't provide full protection, as long as it provides a lot, it still works. You can't really say N95s don't work if people don't wear them correctly or if they block 80% vs 95%. Some people tend to say that since masks or vaccines don't work perfectly then they are useless. This is clearly incorrect. On the other hand you can't ignore human nature and reality of the world and continue to scream and yell that if everyone vaccinated and wore correct masks correctly covid would be over. I think most people do what they should and what is best for them and their immediate surroundings, some people even go out of their way to try to protect people they don't know. It is when the expectations become unreasonable when most reasonable people start to ignore the "saviors" and the enlighten ones that know what is best for all.

At this point it looks like covid is not going anywhere, unless Omicron creates some sort of a "herd immunity". The more likely scenario, at the moment, looks like it will be with us, but will become milder and less deadly. Be it from vaccines or recovered or the combination of both, the end result is what matters. If this happens we need to stop treating it as the plague and start figuring out how to deal with the other problems it caused. Some people will continue getting it. Boosting every few month is not a reasonable option for most and just won't happen. Repeated lockdowns is not a good option either, so will unlikely happen. Eventually we will probably have targeted vaccines against seasonal variants that will allow us to vaccinate same as against flu.

No COVID-19 is not like flu, but it might become like it, in vaccinated it seems to be. Omicron seems to be milder than the original and Delta variants.


----------



## Midsummer

Barmoley said:


> Eventually we will probably have targeted vaccines against seasonal variants that will allow us to vaccinate same as against flu.
> 
> No COVID-19 is not like flu, but it might become like it, in vaccinated it seems to be. Omicron seems to be milder than the original and Delta variants.



I can see why you hedged on your analogy about covid and flu. 

This is a good read on pandemics; example 1918 flu. Not a benign disease.. 1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics


----------



## Barmoley

Midsummer said:


> I can see why you hedged on your analogy about covid and flu.
> 
> This is a good read on pandemics; example 1918 flu. Not a benign disease.. 1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics


Good read, thank you, I have read this before.

I don't think flu is benign at all, a lot of people die from it every year. When I compared flu to covid I meant flu today to what covid will most likely become. Some people just seem to have a kneejerk reaction anytime anyone compares flu to covid, so I didn't want that to become the main argument again. First 2 years of covid could be compared to first few years of 1918 flu, separated by 100 years of medical advances and care on the positive side and a much more populous and connected world as a negative.


----------



## sansho

Barmoley said:


> Masks and especially N95s worn properly should provide some protection, the main problem being "worn properly". I see people wear N95s incorrectly all the time and most people don't wear N95s anyway.





dAtron said:


> Just to add to this.
> Even if you think you're wearing it properly, unless you have been mask fitted it still might not provide full protection.



this is why i really like half-mask respirators (which can be modified to be "non-vented") with N100/P100 carts.

have any of you actually been fit tested for N95s? i sure haven't. doing it right can take 10 minutes per attempt and requires special gear.



half-masks "just work" because of the nice, compliant rubber gasket. you'd have to have a way-off size for it to not fit your face, and you can actually verify fit in seconds by blocking the air intake and inhaling. the seal is also way more robust. you can move your head a lot and bump the mask without breaking the seal. they're heavier and more cumbersome, but i think they're probably more comfortable than N95s, especially over extended sessions.

unfortunately, you (virtually) can't wear these when it really counts like on flights because they draw too much attention. i made a poorly received rant about this earlier, lol.


----------



## EShin

Barmoley said:


> No COVID-19 is not like flu, but it might become like it, in vaccinated it seems to be. Omicron seems to be milder than the original and Delta variants.


While it’s still too early to reach any conclusions, early data seems to suggest exactly this, i.e. that the omicron variant is like the flu for people who got the mRNA vaccine (AstraZeneca not very effective, and not enough data here for other vaccines to say anything). While I’m still skeptical if it’s good and necessary to get a booster for all age groups, data on hospitalizations indicates clearly that it helps protect against severe disease very effectively as there’s a strong immune response. But with high infection rates, it seems that hospitals still have a few hard months in front of them…



KJDedge said:


> are you one of Those people who think having A mask mandate to enter or move about in a restaurant is a good idea and helping?
> only to have everyone remove it for hours and spew virus while they eat?…. The mask mandates are applied non scientifically and ineffective at best…. in any event, hopefully we all get this pandemic behind us eventually and return to some normalcy….


I don’t know how masks are handled there and how the rules are concerning restaurants, and I do agree that some measures are pointless at times and quite theatrical. However, transmission occurs mostly in direct interactions that last for at least 10 minutes, so restaurants are likely to be one of the main places where transmission happens. Shutting down restaurants or at least stopping people from talking would be most effective, but probably not very good options. While it might not make any sense for you and your company, wearing a mask when not eating still lowers the likelihood of transmitting the virus to the staff and other guests. Even if the mouth is just covered with a cloth, the likelihood of spreading the virus is much less as fewer particles are flying out of the mouth at a lower speed. Many measures are applied quite randomly, could be more effective if handled differently and are at times pointless, I agree, but having various measures still lower the statistical likelihood of spreading.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

__


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## MarcelNL

Just have a look at the sheer numbers, even when 'flu-like' Omikron ( the jury is still out on that point) causes a naught point little percentage of infected to be hospitalized there is an overall issue when millions (inclusive of health care staff) are infected at almost the same point in time.










More than 100,000 people hospitalized with Covid-19 in US for first time in nearly four months | CNN


More than 103,000 people are currently hospitalized with Covid-19, the first time the total has reached six figures in nearly four months, according to the latest data from the US Department of Health and Human Services.




edition.cnn.com


----------



## Keith Sinclair

It's different with parents some both work need to have kids in school. 

My niece has 4 kids one pre school two elementary one middle. She was a teacher home schooled during covid. School kids went back in the fall. Only middle is vaccinated she's back to home school again because she can with Omicron raging.


----------



## tcmx3

oh boy we're back on the "but the stock market is doing great" pattern.

just really love how this **** masquerades as "seriousness" in US policy just working out fantastically no problems at all


----------



## dAtron

Barmoley said:


> The thing is that even if it doesn't provide full protection, as long as it provides a lot, it still works. You can't really say N95s don't work if people don't wear them correctly or if they block 80% vs 95%. Some people tend to say that since masks or vaccines don't work perfectly then they are useless. This is clearly incorrect. On the other hand you can't ignore human nature and reality of the world and continue to scream and yell that if everyone vaccinated and wore correct masks correctly covid would be over. I think most people do what they should and what is best for them and their immediate surroundings, some people even go out of their way to try to protect people they don't know. It is when the expectations become unreasonable when most reasonable people start to ignore the "saviors" and the enlighten ones that know what is best for all.
> 
> At this point it looks like covid is not going anywhere, unless Omicron creates some sort of a "herd immunity". The more likely scenario, at the moment, looks like it will be with us, but will become milder and less deadly. Be it from vaccines or recovered or the combination of both, the end result is what matters. If this happens we need to stop treating it as the plague and start figuring out how to deal with the other problems it caused. Some people will continue getting it. Boosting every few month is not a reasonable option for most and just won't happen. Repeated lockdowns is not a good option either, so will unlikely happen. Eventually we will probably have targeted vaccines against seasonal variants that will allow us to vaccinate same as against flu.
> 
> No COVID-19 is not like flu, but it might become like it, in vaccinated it seems to be. Omicron seems to be milder than the original and Delta variants.



I am not anti vax or anti mask. I will give you an example of why wearing it properly fitted is absolutely necessary in my case by giving some context. Four weeks ago I had a stubble and the ffp3 mask i was mask fitted to wear had an imperfect seal. I was called to the a&e for a different case while two other patients with covid were being intubated in some of the adjacent bays. Intubation is an aerosol generating procedure and if you don't wear proper protection (mask fits properly) you will 100% catch covid. The call went out for everyone in a&e to mask up. I stepped out of the sealed door of my patient to take a call while the intubation was happening and then 3 days later i tested positive for omicron.


----------



## KingShapton

Masks only make sense if they fit properly and are worn correctly, I agree 100%. And I think good masks (KN95 / FFP2) are extremely important as protection for yourself and for others in this pandemic.

A big problem I currently have is the following - until about 4 months ago, the masks that are sold in Germany fit me well and covered my face properly, just like a mask should fit.

For about 4 months now only masks made for smaller faces / heads have been sold here in Germany, presumably for the Asian market. No matter where you buy a mask, pharmacy or online, it no longer fits my face. And in addition, the loops for the ears are too small, they are so tight that my ears sometimes fold forward. That is painful, but what is much worse is that the mask slips off my face, so it no longer has any protective effect.

That might sound funny at first y but I'm desperate right now. It is currently almost impossible to find a suitable mask and I hardly have any more suitable ones.

All of the masks that we bought for testing purposes and that don't fit me will be taken care of for my wife for the next 5 years. But it looks like I will soon not be able to leave my apartment because I no longer have a suitable mask ... a real problem!


----------



## MarcelNL

dAtron said:


> I am not anti vax or anti mask. I will give you an example of why wearing it properly fitted is absolutely necessary in my case by giving some context. Four weeks ago I had a stubble and the ffp3 mask i was mask fitted to wear had an imperfect seal. I was called to the a&e for a different case while two other patients with covid were being intubated in some of the adjacent bays. Intubation is an aerosol generating procedure and if you don't wear proper protection (mask fits properly) you will 100% catch covid. The call went out for everyone in a&e to mask up. I stepped out of the sealed door of my patient to take a call while the intubation was happening and then 3 days later i tested positive for omicron.



In your situation a good functioning mask is essential because you're working in a high risk environment AND distancing is impossible, to protect us -who are not exposed to that degree- a decently fitting mask and distancing OUGHT to work well enough in most cases.


----------



## Barmoley

dAtron said:


> I am not anti vax or anti mask. I will give you an example of why wearing it properly fitted is absolutely necessary in my case by giving some context. Four weeks ago I had a stubble and the ffp3 mask i was mask fitted to wear had an imperfect seal. I was called to the a&e for a different case while two other patients with covid were being intubated in some of the adjacent bays. Intubation is an aerosol generating procedure and if you don't wear proper protection (mask fits properly) you will 100% catch covid. The call went out for everyone in a&e to mask up. I stepped out of the sealed door of my patient to take a call while the intubation was happening and then 3 days later i tested positive for omicron.


In your case definitely, yours is a somewhat rare situation though. I am commenting on the general belief and reasoning of some that if something is not perfect then it has to be useless. In your situation perfect or near perfect seal and fit is clearly needed. On the other hand 2 people wearing n95s that cover their nose and mouth in a supermarket even if these are not fitted is better than them not wearing masks at all. How much better is hard to say and sort of where the arguments come in.

COVID discussions are so hard to have because you have 2 loud camps that seem to overshadow everything else. One says since vaccines and masks are not perfect and seem to be less effective against covid and especially now with omicron then they are useless. To me this is wrong since there are very few if any perfect solutions and perfect or near perfect is not the standard we use for anything else.

The other camp says we should do everything possible to save every single life, economy, mental health, kids' education be damned; every life is precious and therefore more important. This camp also seems to believe that nothing has changed in 2 years, that covid hasn’t changed or that if we discussed something a year ago and came to some conclusion that this still holds true today and shouldn't be discussed. Funny thing is these seem to be the same people screaming "listen to the science" and the ones explaining to the rest that when science is "wrong" it is normal because it changes as we learn more. I agree with this, but then I don't understand why same doesn't apply to discussing something that was supposedly resolved a year or two ago once new information is available. As with the first camp I don't understand why we apply unrealistic standards to covid. Cost benefit analysis is always part of the decision making and this includes human lives too. We don't ever consider every life above anything else, why is covid any different?

I hope most people are more reasonable. Omicron is different from previous variants, so we can't necessarily act as if it is not. Also things have changed in the last 2 years, so how can we pretend otherwise?


----------



## tcmx3

saying that the people who put human life above the economy or forcing kids back into classrooms (which is what is actually the goal, not their education) are the unreasonable group has strong post 9/11 vibes where all the people who didnt support large-scale invasion were "naive". 

sending kids back into classrooms with omicron cases spiking while it appears to cause more symptomatic cases in children, and that the long term neurological effects are really serious, is just so obviously wrong I dont know what to say to the suggestion that this is the "reasonable" approach. reasonable in what world?

being in the middle doesnt make you reasonable. not wrt covid or in politics. if that's where you land more power to you but it is not an inherently good thing.


----------



## tcmx3

I mean furthermore when you look at who COVID has primarily impacted, and then you consider statements like " Cost benefit analysis is always part of the decision making and this includes human lives too. We don't ever consider every life above anything else, why is covid any different? " in that context...

the people who have been most impacted by COVID are black folks, indigenous folks, the elderly who are in managed care, the homeless and the disabled. the folks who are always getting the worst of it.

I recognize this statement may make me even more unpopular, but holy **** does it sound like people just dont ****ing care as long as the people being hurt the most arent visible to them. if that's what passes for "reasonable" then yeah I aint reasonable.


----------



## chefwp

I found these recent charts from Ontario very telling






More info can be found on the Ontario Covid-19 Dashboard here


----------



## Keith Sinclair

My sister's coming for whale watching, horseback riding in spectacular Maui valley.
Driving to top of Haleakala to see crater & snow capped peaks of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa 
Big Island across the channel from 10'000 foot level on Maui. Eating out. All in the middle of 
Omicron pandemic. This is what I'm collecting 
these days.


----------



## Barmoley

For what it's worth according to New York Times severe and long covid are very rare in children and low income and minority communities are the ones hurt the most by school closures and remote teaching. Might be something to think about.


----------



## tcmx3

Barmoley said:


> For what it's worth according to New York Times severe and long covid are very rare in children and low income and minority communities are the ones hurt the most by school closures and remote teaching. Might be something to think about.



it is worth thinking about.

for example, we could consider how internet and device access differs between low income households and high income households, and give free internet to those households. also, since there is no need to commute, we could pool teachers together and allow lower income children to have access to the same teachers as higher income households. while we're at it, we could give direct payments to lower income households to make up for the fact that there is not a school lunch or breakfast available. in fact maybe we could address how many folks live in food deserts where we have typically relied on schools to solve that problem for kids.

how many of those have we done? right, zero.

but I 100% support working to bridge the achievement gap. Let's go ahead and start signing those checks. In fact Ill support making material improvements to each of those shortcomings permanent.

As far as the rate being "extremely rare", when we're dealing with a whole country full of children, the actual number of affected children will still be quite large. plus, you need to add in the marginal adult cases caused by increased spread in children. Oh also Im going and looking at some studies (since the one you linked is paywalled so I cant actually see what theyre even reporting) and the meta-analysis I found basically went  too early to tell. plus again with Omicron showing increased symptomatic cases in kids, not at all clear sending the kiddos back is a good idea. that's a lot to ask for the *choice* of forcing kids back into classrooms.

For all of your "people arent really trusting the science" you have yet to acknowledge that many of your positions are merely correlative whereas getting sick with covid is an actual concrete outcome. I dont know why I think you might actually give this some thought, but could you at least try to think about what it actually requires to demonstrate that something is caused by something else and how much different that is than merely looking at a datapoint and saying "ah yes anti-covid measures caused this"? Even without isolation suicides could just as easily go up because these kids are losing family members left and right seeing as over 800 thousand people have died. See, both are reasonable suppositions, but that's all they are.

I have been and remain skeptical that the social impacts of isolation are knowable this early on. Things that are more concrete, like vaccine safety, what we know about how covid is transmitted, the rates of symptomatic cases versus positive test results etc. are a lot easier to make comments about.

oh also worth noting in the thing you linked, many items were anecdotal and many are not at all clearly linked to remote learning. school shootings? if you want to stop those we need to be having a different conversation.


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## tcmx3

by the way to be clear before Omicron starting picking up Id probably have supported allowing vaccinated kids back into classrooms.

however, not because I value "normalcy" or "the economy". really dgaf about either of those.

also, gonna keep saying this, Im not saying youre theories are all wrong. Im saying I think you've overstating how solid they are. by a fair bit. I suspect several of them will be proven correct. in the future with a lot more effort than just pointing at a few figures and using that as evidence to go against the recommendations of the epidemiologists trying to get this thing under control


----------



## Luftmensch

[RANT]

Complaining about masks at restaurants or on planes appears to lack even momentary consideration. For a start, are mask such a burden that we have to complain about them at all? Moving on, what if you are thinking about it the completely wrong way? What if masks aren't a 'pointless' inconvenience that you can't understand; but a mild concession you must make to be allowed the privilege to attend a restaurant? Would you rather masks + restaurants... or no restaurants??

As others have stated... how complex do you want to get about the set of conditions? What about alfresco restaurants? What about food courts in shopping centres? What about restaurants with really large gaps between tables......... 

.... What about attempting to create the simplest set of rules that doesn't inspire vested interest to clamor for exceptions or create compliance confusion? And what about policy where the secondary impact of the policy is actually the primary objective of the policy? What if requiring masks at restaurants isnt about protection during the meal... but setting a baseline expectation that carrying a mask at all times is a new standard duty for 'good' citizens. For example... it implies you commuted to the restaurant, perhaps on public transport,_ using your mask_.



[/RANT]


----------



## Luftmensch

[UBER RANT]

Can we stop pretending policy is science!!! Policy is the _art_ of compromise!!!

You can set up experiments to show that lockdowns work. Social distancing works. Masks work. And so on it goes.... Science can answer questions about phenomena that can be modeled, measured and quantified. Conclusions from this process is used as _advice_ to policy makers.

Medicos worry about health. Economists worry about the economy. Business worry about business. Politicians worry about getting reelected. 'Science' does not have a calculable answer to balance all of this. It is wrong and irresponsible to pretend it does. Humans are selfish and irrational. Moral/ethical/political/social frameworks can be used in science. Indeed science can inform moral/ethical/political/social decisions. There is no one-to-one mapping.

For those who want to blame 'irrational' rules on science... or even expect them to be 100% based in some experiment that has been replicated in every single permutation of events.... Stop. Think harder. Is this really the domain of science or social policy? And is it worth causing a fuss over?

[/UBER RANT]


----------



## Luftmensch

[MEGA MELTDOWN RANT]

Can we stop asserting masks have to stop every single viral particle from both entering our lungs and exiting them?

The _more_ they stop the _better. _This is all you have to be concerned about.

99.9% of the population wear mask to prevent the WEARER from spreading illness to OTHERS. Their primary purpose is NOT to protect the wearer. That masks provide some protection to the wearer is a bonus. YOU do not need a fit tested N95 to be socially responsible. Exercise a fair interpretation of common sense and be mindful of your mask habits.

For the remaining 0.1% of the population that actually NEED N95 protection or better; their circumstances are particular and specialised. Their circumstances do not need to (read: should not) be generalised to the rest of the population. And they should know better than to make passing statements as if it should be applied to all people...

[/MEGA MELTDOWN RANT]


----------



## sansho

Luftmensch said:


> [MEGA MELTDOWN RANT]
> 
> Can we stop asserting masks have to stop every single viral particle from both entering our lungs and exiting them?
> 
> The _more_ they stop the _better. _This is all you have to be concerned about.
> 
> 99.9% of the population wear mask to prevent the WEARER from spreading illness to OTHERS. Their primary purpose is NOT to protect the wearer. That masks provide some protection to the wearer is a bonus. YOU do not need a fit tested N95 to be socially responsible. Exercise a fair interpretation of common sense and be mindful of your mask habits.
> 
> For the remaining 0.1% of the population that actually NEED N95 protection or better; their circumstances are particular and specialised. Their circumstances do not need to (read: should not) be generalised to the rest of the population. And they should know better than to make passing statements as if it should be applied to all people...
> 
> [/MEGA MELTDOWN RANT]



respectfully,

maybe i'm misinterpreting... please forgive me if i'm putting words in your mouth.

but why are you speaking for 99.9% of the population?

i personally wear a mask primarily to protect myself.

protecting others is noble, and i think it's very thoughtful if someone wears a mask with others' health in mind first and foremost. i've done this as well when interacting with vulnerable people (making my best effort to wear a well-fitting (but not fit-tested) N95 or similar).

but the vast majority of the time i wear a mask, i am doing it to protect myself. secondary motivation is to appear socially compliant in areas where the mask is the norm, and tertiary motivation is to protect others. just being honest.

and if i had to wager a guess, i personally assume that most people are wearing masks primarily to be granted access to areas where they're required. protecting others is not the _primary_ motivation for anyone i know personally unless they're visiting old people or something.

insofar as i "NEED" to be alive and healthy, i feel that i NEED (and deserve) the best protection available. it kind of bugs me if you're implying that i'm somehow not entitled to that or that i should't be interested in preserving my health above and beyond any other possible motivation.

if i don't have my health, i have _nothing_. i think i deserve to be selfish. self-preservation is powerful and valuable. it's human nature.


----------



## Luftmensch

Oh... and by-the-by... For those who arent watching irrelevant-middleweight-Australia...

We pissed our initial advantage and hard work into the wind (at least on the East coast). Our state and federal governments have been so determined to 'live with Covid' that they werent willing to extend caution over the Omicron variant.

It is now so prevalent in NSW and VIC that we're going to have to do deep lockdowns to mitigate the numbers. The other alternative is that we have been forced into a situation where it is so prevalent our options for mitigation are quite limited - like the UK and US.

We have a high vaccination rate. We were always going to 'open up' and 'live with covid'... I am just so frustrated the government couldnt wait one month.. two months even three months... to learn about the nature of Omicron by observing the rest of the world. They didnt want to ruin christmas and new year... and there is an election in the next three-four months. This could bite them in the bum...


----------



## Luftmensch

sansho said:


> but why are you speaking for 99.9% of the population?



Fair point.

I am speaking based on what I understand the intention of mask mandates to be. This rule is designed to cover the majority of the population.

This has been said many times. Face masks significantly reduce the risk of infected people transmitting the disease. Remember, epidemiologists don't care as much about _individual_ protection as they do about reducing transmission. Happily, masks also offer you some protection.



sansho said:


> the vast majority of the time i wear a mask, i am doing it to protect myself.



That is fine. You can pursue parallel goals... Mask mandates say nothing about personal protection. If you are immunocompromised, of course you will be taking extra precautions. If you are healthy and are simply concerned about protecting your own health... you will be taking extra precautions as well...

Remember, the government knows it can't count on people doing the 'right thing' which is why masks are mandated. Again, their primary concern is reducing transmission, NOT protecting any one individual. Masks do not have to meet N95 standards to help achieve this outcome. You are free to pursue higher standards if you want to.

For daily life I wear a cloth mask to protect others. I am not worried by this. I try to avoid public spaces. I am mindful of social distancing and try to stick to well ventilated spaces. These behaviours are for me as much as others. If you were to squeeze me into a petri-dish with hundreds of other people for several hours. Like you... I would seriously consider something like a half-mask respirator to protect myself. Like you noted, to be responsible, you have to be sure they are not venting your contaminated air. Instead; I am choosing to avoid these situations (like flying) unless I really, really have to.




sansho said:


> i am doing it to protect myself. secondary motivation is to appear socially compliant in areas where the mask is the norm, and tertiary motivation is to protect others. just being honest.



I have no problem with people being concerned for their own welfare. But it does make me sad that it is more important to you to _appear_ to look like you were protecting others... than _actually_ protecting others! That said, I appreciate your honesty and it sounds like you are being thoughtful and methodical about your options


----------



## sansho

Luftmensch said:


> You can pursue parallel goals...



that's the beautiful thing about this situation. the motivations aren't orthogonal. <3

things don't always work out so nicely.


----------



## sansho

KingShapton said:


> All of the masks that we bought for testing purposes and that don't fit me will be taken care of for my wife for the next 5 years. But it looks like I will soon not be able to leave my apartment because I no longer have a suitable mask ... a real problem!



hey, have you considered investigating frame-sealed surgical masks?

face frame fit-test on youtube

apparently it's possible to get these to pass a fit-test. this astounded me.

even without fit testing, surely that has to be better than an N95/KN95 that doesn't fit your face at all?

might be worth looking into. i haven't done a review of the mask frame landscape because i'm satisfied with my PPE situation, but here's one:





__





Badger Seal (Mask Fitter, Mask Sealer, Mask Brace)


What is the Badger Seal (mask fitter)? A soft, flexible and adjustable “frame” that significantly improves the outer seal of a mask. Why use it? Increase filtration performance: Adding the Badger Seal to a 3-ply disposable mask reduces the effective particle penetration by typically 15x (see...




making.engr.wisc.edu





carefully looking at the video i linked, it seems like the 3d-printed one sculpted to your face might be called "Smile" or "Smiles" or something (i thought i read that when pausing the video)? i did a quick search but couldn't find it.

here's another interesting looking one:









How to Make Bellus3D's Face Mask Fitter | Bellus3D: High-quality 3D face scanning


How to Make Bellus3D's Face Mask Fitter




bellus3d.com


----------



## Geigs

Luftmensch said:


> Oh... and by-the-by... For those who arent watching irrelevant-middleweight-Australia...
> 
> We pissed our initial advantage and hard work into the wind (at least on the East coast). Our state and federal governments have been so determined to 'live with Covid' that they werent willing to extend caution over the Omicron variant.
> 
> It is now so prevalent in NSW and VIC that we're going to have to do deep lockdowns to mitigate the numbers. The other alternative is that we have been forced into a situation where it is so prevalent our options for mitigation are quite limited - like the UK and US.
> 
> We have a high vaccination rate. We were always going to 'open up' and 'live with covid'... I am just so frustrated the government couldnt wait one month.. two months even three months... to learn about the nature of Omicron by observing the rest of the world. They didnt want to ruin christmas and new year... and there is an election in the next three-four months. This could bite them in the bum...



Not just East Coast - everywhere except WA. Re-opening right before xmas basically killed the hospitality industry, right before what would have been peak time. in SA we went from Zero community transmission basically since the pandemic started, to 3.5K daily now and soon to be in the 10s of thousands like NSW/VIC. The height of stupidity.


----------



## Luftmensch

Geigs said:


> Not just East Coast - everywhere except WA. Re-opening right before xmas basically killed the hospitality industry, right before what would have been peak time. in SA we went from Zero community transmission basically since the pandemic started, to 3.5K daily now and soon to be in the 10s of thousands like NSW/VIC. The height of stupidity.



Amen. I am very frustrated.

If WA fail to contain Omicron, it could become widespread there as well. A short sighted gamble from the polies if you ask me... if this gets worse, I think the timing will be bad for their election ambitions.


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> We pissed our initial advantage and hard work into the wind (at least on the East coast). Our state and federal governments have been so determined to 'live with Covid' that they werent willing to extend caution over the Omicron variant.


For perspective, yesterday, we had 65,000 new reported infections in Australia. On a per-capita basis, that is the equivalent of 800,000 infections in the US. Our test positivity rate now is somewhere around 25%, meaning the actual number of infections likely is two to three times the reported number. And our Omicron wave has only just started. We have another month or two of this ahead of us.

We are in DS Down Under


----------



## EricEricEric

There is zero chance to contain any Covid strain, that notion is absolutely absurd

If someone wears a “mask” it is contaminated immediately upon wearing it and if that person ,like everyone does, touches that mask to take it off or adjust it at any time their hands are now contaminated

If their hands are contaminated they are spreading this virus absolutely everywhere constantly all day long

Also, factor in the fact that Covid is air born then it makes zero sense to be taking the mask on and off in places like restaurants, airplanes, and etc

The only mask that’s effective is a properly worn and fitted N95 or greater mask that is consistently sterilized and worn at all times

A cloth on someone’s face is a complete joke as it only does harm and does nothing to stop airborn Covid (it harbors bacteria and viruses like a petri dish and high speed particles still pass through as it’s incredibly porous)

Omicron is no more dangerous than influenza which is a great thing as it will force everyone to produce antibodies

We are soon to see the end of Covid because of this and magically influenza will return exactly when the Covid testing changes and includes testing for influenza

We should see the new more accurate test come March/April, as the original PCR test was never accurate nor was it being used correctly consistently


----------



## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> A cloth on someone’s face is a complete joke as it only does harm and does nothing to stop airborn Covid


I have asked you this before: assuming for a moment that masks are ineffective, how can wearing a mask do harm?


----------



## ian

EricEricEric said:


> There is zero chance to contain any Covid strain, that notion is absolutely absurd
> 
> If someone wears a “mask” it is contaminated immediately upon wearing it and if that person ,like everyone does, touches that mask to take it off or adjust it at any time their hands are now contaminated
> 
> If their hands are contaminated they are spreading this virus absolutely everywhere constantly all day long
> 
> Also, factor in the fact that Covid is air born it makes zero sense to be taking the mask on and off in places like restaurants, airplanes, and etc
> 
> The only mask that’s effective is a properly worn and fitted N95 and above mask that is consistently sterilized and worn at all times
> 
> A cloth on someone’s face is a complete joke as it only does harm and does nothing to stop airborn Covid
> 
> Omicron is no more dangerous than influenza which is a great thing as it will force everyone to produce antibodies
> 
> We are soon to see the end of Covid because of this and magically influenza will return exactly when the Covid testing changes and includes testing fr influenza
> 
> We should see the new more accurate test come March/April, as the original PCR test was never accurate nor was it being used correctly consistently
> 
> View attachment 159037
> View attachment 159038



You’re doing the whole “we must contain every molecule of covid for any of our measures to be worthwhile” thing again.

Say there is a huge fire in your city. You have 10 fire engines. Your residents can slow the spread of the fire by a significant factor by crying on it. (They’re very sad and have high water content.) Do you tell them to cheer up and ignore the fire? Or do you tell them to take a moment and experience their pain, because you know that if the spread is slowed your fire fighters will be able to save more of the houses?


----------



## Michi

ian said:


> You’re doing the whole “we must contain every molecule of covid for any of our measures to be worthwhile” thing again.


Fallacy of the excluded middle.


----------



## daveb

Luftmensch said:


> polies



Best thing to come out of this thread


----------



## MarcelNL

The global map at Johns Hopkins shows some interesting trends; new cases, deaths, and vaccines in one view....among the countries of which I think the data is pretty good there is pretty much one outlier and that is Germany where the new infections do not spike (yet?) but new vaccinations do. All others show a an increase as steep as never before. It's probably too early but there also appears a trend towards less deaths after what likely was the delta peak.


----------



## Michi

It looks like Omicron kills fewer people than Delta, and also puts fewer people into hospitals. Small blessings…


----------



## MarcelNL

Michi said:


> It looks like Omicron kills fewer people than Delta, and also puts fewer people into hospitals. Small blessings…


I hope it holds true....it's too early to tell as the young are first to get infected and the Omikron wave has only recently started to take off vertically. One issue is that in many countries large numbers of healthcare staff are affected, let's just hope it's more benign and the population gets a booster, follows the basic rules of distance, hand washing, and wears a decent mask with decent mask hygiene in an attempt to keep the flood from becoming a Tsunami.


----------



## CA_cook

This is a cooks’ site, shouldn’t we be discussing how to julienne onions?


----------



## stringer

CA_cook said:


> This is a cooks’ site, shouldn’t we be discussing how to julienne onions?



That is a different subforum. This is the Off-Topic Room where we mostly beat dead horses.


----------



## ian

Sources say the horse died because its N95 wasn’t fit tested. Other sources insist that the horse is alive. If sources were horses we wouldn’t be in this mess.


----------



## MarcelNL

I heard the source of Covid involved some horsing around


----------



## daveb

Isn't the horse dewormer for horses?


----------



## Barmoley

daveb said:


> Isn't the horse dewormer for horses?


Is this why everyone is hating on the horses and beating them even after death?


----------



## Barmoley

ian said:


> Sources say the horse died because its N95 wasn’t fit tested. Other sources insist that the horse is alive. If sources were horses we wouldn’t be in this mess.


If it is a Schrodinger horse, do we really know?


----------



## Michi

It’s all fake news. I have it from the horse’s mouth.


----------



## ian

If you get your news from horses, you might benefit from some medication.


----------



## EricEricEric

For some strange reason the MSM is now interested in the difference between with and because after 2 years 

I keep seeing more and more about this in the MSM and they keep pushing the magical comeback of influenza as well. All perfectly timed when the new test comes out that separates COVID-19 and influenza

What are the odds the original PCR test is worthless and was defining everything as corona virus along with influenza and other viruses as Covid 19 and a positive test 12 weeks later?


----------



## dAtron

EricEricEric said:


> What are the odds the original PCR test is worthless and was defining everything as corona virus along with influenza and other viruses as Covid 19



Absolutely 0


----------



## Midsummer

EricEricEric said:


> For some strange reason the MSM is now interested in the difference between with and because after 2 years
> 
> I keep seeing more and more about this in the MSM and they keep pushing the magical comeback of influenza as well. All perfectly timed when the new test comes out that separates COVID-19 and influenza
> 
> What are the odds the original PCR test is worthless and was defining everything as corona virus along with influenza and other viruses as Covid 19 and a positive test 12 weeks later?
> 
> 
> View attachment 159072


Sorry, I am just requesting a clarification

MSM? in health care that is Men who have Sex with Men... But contextually that does not help me understand your post. What is MSM to you?


----------



## stringer

Midsummer said:


> Sorry, I am just requesting a clarification
> 
> MSM? in health care that is Men who have Sex with Men... But contextually that does not help me understand your post. What is MSM to you?



Mainstream Media.


----------



## Midsummer

dAtron said:


> Absolutely 0



PCR is amazing technology that has been a Godsend in medical testing with specificity and sensitivity that far exceeds tests of the past. Really good. Specificity of PCR runs around 98-99%. So not likely to be wrong if it identifies the virus.


----------



## Midsummer

stringer said:


> Mainstream Media.


Thanks,


----------



## ian

.... sh*tpost deleted


----------



## Midsummer

I have one of them now. Likely the Omicron. It has been like a mild cold. Hope it doesn't get worse. I am vaxed and boosted.


----------



## ian

Midsummer said:


> I have one of them now. Likely the Omicron. It has been like a mild cold. Hope it doesn't get worse. I am vaxed and boosted.



Good luck. Hope you recover soon.


----------



## Nemo

Midsummer said:


> I have one of them now. Likely the Omicron. It has been like a mild cold. Hope it doesn't get worse. I am vaxed and boosted.


Best wishes for a speedy recovery


----------



## Barmoley

Midsummer said:


> I have one of them now. Likely the Omicron. It has been like a mild cold. Hope it doesn't get worse. I am vaxed and boosted.


You should be ok in a few daysseems to be mild for most who are vaxed and especially boosted. Very hard to avoid getting it now.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

*I Wear a mask cuz can't go anywhere without it. *FIgure that's the case with many people here.

When covid first came out & people dropping off like flies took the steps to protect ourselves.
Never take off mask before disinfectant gel on hands. Early on even left food boxes outside for a while. Washing hands more. Masks work 
Been shopping since this Omicron wearing KN95. 
Keep a small bottle of gel in pocket to put on cart handle. In car have larger bottle then take off mask. Even in Island chain like Hawaii more people getting sick this one spreads like crazy. 
Somehow because have had shots don't think 
it would be that bad even if did catch it. 
Not like earlier strains of COVID-19. 

This thread is like beating a dead horse. That said there have been some very good points made.


----------



## KingShapton

Midsummer said:


> I have one of them now. Likely the Omicron. It has been like a mild cold. Hope it doesn't get worse. I am vaxed and boosted.


damned! best wishes for recovery!


----------



## KingShapton

Keith Sinclair said:


> *I Wear a mask cuz can't go anywhere without it. *FIgure that's the case with many people here.
> 
> When covid first came out & people dropping off like flies took the steps to protect ourselves.
> Never take off mask before disinfectant gel on hands. Early on even left food boxes outside for a while. Washing hands more. Masks work
> Been shopping since this Omicron wearing KN95.
> Keep a small bottle of gel in pocket to put on cart handle. In car have larger bottle then take off mask. Even in Island chain like Hawaii more people getting sick this one spreads like crazy.
> Somehow because have had shots don't think
> it would be that bad even if did catch it.
> Not like earlier strains of COVID-19.
> 
> This thread is like beating a dead horse. That said there have been some very good points made.


That's exactly how I act and now I'll find out the hard way whether it's enough or not.

Unfortunately, yesterday I had to spend almost eight hours in a treatment room in a hospital emergency room. In the room right next to me, a covid patient with pneumonia was examined before he was transferred to the intensive care unit.

It is officially claimed that in Germany, patients with unclear or positive covid status are admitted to isolation rooms in the emergency room. In reality, unfortunately, there was no difference between Covid-positive and Covid-negative patients. I was negative (at least until I was in the emergency room) and a Covid patient was treated in the room next to me, with the door to the corridor half open. And he was treated by the same staff that treated me. To make matters worse, we currently still have delta prevailing in Germany and delta causes more difficult courses. In addition, I have a higher risk of a severe course due to my previous illnesses.

Now I can only hope that my mask and my meticulous hand disinfection have protected me. I'll know in a few days. The mean thing is, I didn't have to be there that long ... the doctor in charge just forgot me in the chaos. That turned out shortly before midnight. If that hadn't happened then I would have been out long before the covid case.


----------



## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> Omicron is no more dangerous than influenza which is a great thing as it will force everyone to produce antibodies


Yeah, right, it's just a little flu:

*COVID-19 claims the life of 23-year-old James Kondilios, former world-class power lifter*


----------



## Luftmensch

KingShapton said:


> Unfortunately, yesterday I had to spend almost eight hours in a treatment room in a hospital emergency room. In the room right next to me, a covid patient with pneumonia was examined before he was transferred to the intensive care unit.


 


It is horrible that you had to go to emergency in the first place! I hope you managed to avoid covid.




KingShapton said:


> To make matters worse, we currently still have delta prevailing in Germany



This is easy to forget. 

Same here. Victoria has less Covid circulation than NSW but it has a higher death rate. Epidemiologists say one contributing factor could be a higher proportion of Delta still circulating in Victoria.


Anyway. I hope you are ok! Your caution has given you a great chance.


----------



## MarcelNL

Wow, you should be getting a medal for 'the most patient person'....Hope you got off well and without Covid!
FWIW the hospital staff should be trusted to have been taking care of cross contamination.


----------



## KJDedge

Some great horse jokes…you guys put a smile on my face…THANKS


----------



## sansho

EricEricEric said:


> Omicron is no more dangerous than influenza which is a great thing as it will force everyone to produce antibodies





Michi said:


> Yeah, right, it's just a little flu:
> 
> *COVID-19 claims the life of 23-year-old James Kondilios, former world-class power lifter*



i don't share @EricEricEric's opinion, but to be fair, i don't see the word "omicron" in that article.


----------



## MarcelNL

A little has no place in a sentence with Flu anyway...yet you are right.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

My father got the flu developed into pneumonia that's what did him in. He was 96 though had a good life.


----------



## Michi

sansho said:


> i don't share @EricEricEric's opinion, but to be fair, i don't see the word "omicron" in that article.


My apologies, I slipped up.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

How are other places doing as far as schools reopening after holidays?

Here already running into problems a fairly large number of teachers calling in sick. Students all masked coming in with no teacher. Some are Omicron others don't want to enter into such a contagious environment.


----------



## stringer

Many colleges are postponing return to physical campuses around here (VA/DC). Going virtual again. At least the next few weeks.


----------



## ian

My campus is requiring masks just for the month of January!  but also


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Janice been going to yoga class, shopping Costco. Feeling a little off late last night out of sorts this morning. Sore thoat. Going in for test told her to mask up social distance & use gel because if not positive going into raging Omicron environment. We are both in our 70's.


----------



## EricEricEric

Lot of employees out at my hospital, and all are boosted. Same situation as with every variant, so I’m not surprised.

There’s nothing else that can be done as it’s already being done


----------



## EricEricEric




----------



## Keith Sinclair

ian said:


> My campus is requiring masks just for the month of January!  but also


Ian does that mean Face Shields too


----------



## sansho

EricEricEric said:


> View attachment 159229



i agree with the facepalm -- i hope they let us get it like 10 weeks after the last dose this time.


----------



## daveb

If boosters work, why don't boosters work?


----------



## ian

If chemotherapy works, why do people die of cancer? #CancerIsn’tReal


----------



## daveb

C'mon Ian, I'm not even smart and I know that chemo is a treatment used post diagnosis. A Vaccine, until yesterdays CDC redefinition, is a preventive to prevent onset of a condition.

In Dave's world, yesterday, in two of my old folks buildings, half of the dietary staff tested positive for Covid. There were similar results in the care staff and the housekeeping staff. A month ago this would have meant people going home for 10 (now 5) days until (hopefully) non-contagious. Interesting that in one facility it's been determined that asymptomatic people can remain on the job as long as they wear an N95 mask at all times. (This is same facility where dietary staff were required to wear face shields or goggles, masks and gowns while doing meal prep, serving and washing dishes only a year ago)

Now the staff at these buildings have all been vaccinated and most boosted. The reduction of stay home or quarantine time from 10 days to 5 days has nothing to do with the disease but is a way to keep more staff at work. Keeping positive but asymptomatic people at work has nothing to do with the disease but is a way to keep more staff at work. And ultimately by keeping staff at work, the facility can keep receiving patients. Kerching! (FWIW these asymptomatic peeps have continual interactions with patients.)

My conclusions, perhaps a little cynical, are my own opinion of course. While I trust but question science, I certainly don't trust scientists.

And now back to regular programming, studies, bar graphs and circle charts.


----------



## Michi

daveb said:


> The reduction of stay home or quarantine time from 10 days to 5 days has nothing to do with the disease but is a way to keep more staff at work. Keeping positive but asymptomatic people at work has nothing to do with the disease but is a way to keep more staff at work. And ultimately by keeping staff at work, the facility can keep receiving patients. Kerching!


It is similar here. We have dropped PCR testing requirements, re-defined what it means to be a close contact (so fewer people need tests), shortened the time people need to isolate to seven days, and so on…

It's a desperate attempt to keep enough people at work to have the economy sort of limping along. We have again empty shelves in supermarkets, not so much because of panic buying, but because the supply chains are getting disrupted by lots of people being sick or forced to isolate.

The one positive thing still is that the vaccines and boosters keep a lot of people out of hospitals. It's bad enough as is despite that. In NSW, hospitals are at the brink of collapse. Same story there: too many health care staff either sick or forced to isolate. Asymptomatic health care workers are now told to keep working even though they returned a positive test.

It'll be a dark two months or so


----------



## Keith Sinclair

When they have biggest sale of the year I have 
picked up The Great Courses DVD's since retired almost 9 years ago. I like watching on big screen TV. Have quite a few takes a while to get through them. Almost all are science. Like college introduction classes. Taught by Professor's. Haven't seen them all just pulled out Mysteries of the Microscopic World. Professor Bruce Fleury Tulane University. 
4 disk 24 lectures. The 1918 Flu takes two full lectures. Might as well watch it now as microbe world is very much a reality. 

One thing agree the 5 day is to keep the economy going even if it is limping along.
So many people are getting Omicron strain.
Don't think I've ever seen a cold flu virus as easily spread as this one. It's full on airborne.
Really hope the 5 day does work & that people take personable responsibility to wear mask & social distance.


----------



## riba

[.]


----------



## MarcelNL

Just have a look at how Denmark is faring, they boostered up in the fall of '21 and Omikron is going around pretty much as fast as everywhere yet hospitalizations are dramatically lower than before.


----------



## ian

daveb said:


> C'mon Ian, I'm not even smart and I know that chemo is a treatment used post diagnosis. A Vaccine, until yesterdays CDC redefinition, is a preventive to prevent onset of a condition.



I get that it’s disappointing that they don’t give you immunity, and instead only drastically decrease your chances of becoming severely ill. But both the vaccines and chemo are imperfect solutions to important problems, and noone’s saying we should forget about chemo because it doesn’t work 100% of the time. That’s why I thought the comparison was apt.



daveb said:


> I'm not even smart



False!!


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> Now the staff at these buildings have all been vaccinated and most boosted. The reduction of stay home or quarantine time from 10 days to 5 days has nothing to do with the disease but is a way to keep more staff at work. Keeping positive but asymptomatic people at work has nothing to do with the disease but is a way to keep more staff at work. And ultimately by keeping staff at work, the facility can keep receiving patients. Kerching! (FWIW these asymptomatic peeps have continual interactions with patients.)



it's finally happened, I agree with you on something (other than a kitchen knife)

the only caveat is that you cant pin this one on the scientists. this one is fully on the Biden administration's politicians.


----------



## tcmx3

also the absolute state of the school opening debate:


----------



## LostHighway

It is notoriously difficult to create vaccines for corona viruses, partially because they attack the upper respiratory system and partially because they are so adept (apologies for the anthropomorphic term) at mutating. The effectiveness of the annual flu vaccine has always been a bit of crap shoot depending on their guess as to the coming dominant strains. I'm not sure where we're at with regard to MERS and SARS vaccines. Rapid global travel and the large reservoir of unvaccinated people has exacerbated the problem. While I'm disappointed that the existing vaccines aren't better at preventing infection from omicron (I'm more than ten weeks past my booster) the situation is what it is. If reduced symptoms/severity is the best I can get I'll take it.
Almost all governments have had *major* policy failures with regard to the pandemic, usually placing too much emphasis on, and faith in, one or two remediation measures while largely ignoring other steps. Testing issues have been one of the Achilles' heels in the US response from the failure of the first CDC developed test in early 2020 to the continued failure to provide rapid, free, accessible testing with all the data centrally collected and openly available. Making policy without reliable data is highly problematic (to be polite), especially when that that data could and should be available.
Some potential control steps inflict real costs and have to be very carefully weighed. Other steps like testing and making high quality PPE like N95, KN95, or KF94 masks widely available and educating the public on their proper use seem relatively obvious. Fixing obstinance and ignorance remains an intractable problem.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Dave the staff at old folks homes are getting Omicron how are the residents fairing.

Was reading how protein receptors on Omicron
are easily attached to host cells & replicate much faster than earlier strains of COVID-19.


----------



## MarcelNL

Why not try to look a bit further than which ever administration is in power in the US? ALL countries struggle with the same acute health care situation, most come up with almost the same solutions and I suspect that is for good reasons. All business try to survive within those parameters, in their own way in an acute and frequently changing situation...some with human ethics in mind, and some without.

There is no us against them, even if some seem to want that badly, see it that way or even want that more than anything else...it's all of us against a new virus and we try to cope as good as possible. Is that coping mechanism perfect? IMO not by far yet it is where we are and what we have... I personally thing it's time to cross over from acute crisis management to long term strategies, our administration promised a long term strategy by end of January....where every measure and easing of measures leaked it now is awfully silent.

Is all of this frustrating? You bet I'm frustrated ... I want our kids back in school, I want restaurants to open, I want all the shops to open, to be able to do the stuff we used to be able to do....yet at the same time I know it's a tad early as we're only beginning to get a bit of grip on the situation.
What can I do? , I can try not to be spreader of Covid and not contract it, and try 'manage' our kids to do the same and that is about it..


----------



## tcmx3

troubling signs out of New York wrt child hospitalizations:





__





New York State Department of Health Releases New Report On Pediatric COVID-19 Hospitalization Data






www.health.ny.gov





not the kind of graph you wanna see:


----------



## Nemo

tcmx3 said:


> troubling signs out of New York wrt child hospitalizations:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New York State Department of Health Releases New Report On Pediatric COVID-19 Hospitalization Data
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.health.ny.gov
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> not the kind of graph you wanna see:
> View attachment 159376


This is indeed worrying. Especially the huge increase in 0-4 yo admissions. Are 0-4s able to be vaccinated in the US?

From the text of the report it looks as though the majority (59%) of these admissions were admissions for covid (rather than admitted for other reasons with covid). This is not reassuring at all. It is quite different to what we were hearing out of South Africa (where natural immunity was high) and so far from the UK (where vaccinated immunity is high).

For our part, Australia's children 0-11 are even more vulnerable as they are completely unvaccinated. I can unfortunately only see this as being due to Strollout mk 2. After a long wait, the TGA approved Pfizer as safe and effective for 5-11yo on December 5. ATAGI recommended it be rolled out on December 10. Schools go back at the end on January. For some incomprehensible reason, the roll-out only begins Jan 10. Apparently because no one in government had enough foresight to secure supply of the vials with the correct (smaller) dose. There is so little of this vaccine around that appointments previously made are being cancelled and it's currently impossible to rebook before school goes back.

In the meantime, Australia has decided, almost by default, to let omicron rip. Which means that most of our kids are going to see omicron before they see any vaccine, let alone 2 doses.

I hope it's more like SA but I am worried by the NY numbers.


----------



## daveb

Keith Sinclair said:


> Dave the staff at old folks homes are getting Omicron how are the residents fairing.



Spike just hit, I'll get back to you in a week. This week had 4 residents positive in a 90 bed facility, 3 in a 60 bed facility. Typically the positive rate among staff and residents closely mirrors the local population which has just gone over 10%.

Vax is supposed to do three things:

Keep the vaxee from contracting Covid
Keep the vaxee from transmitting Covid
Lessen the effects of Covid if contracted.

With most recent data from NY, probably the most vaxed / boosted data sample in the world, can the vax be said to be doing anything?


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> Spike just hit, I'll get back to you in a week.
> 
> Vax is supposed to do three things:
> 
> Keep the vaxee from contracting Covid
> Keep the vaxee from transmitting Covid
> Lessen the effects of Covid if contracted.
> 
> With most recent data from NY, probably the most vaxed / boosted data sample in the world, can the vax be said to be doing anything?



what's the control group though?


----------



## inferno

omicron.

you are all gonna get it, make no mistake. there is no hiding from this one. but its gonna be miiild. and i guess i told you this about 2 years ago.. but we live on hope, right.
hope, faith and prayers. its the best **** of course. lets just pretend.

denmark, uk, france, and probably also norway basically have decieded to simply just let everyone get it. since there is no way to stop it (and never was).

and from what i have read in my state propaganda news its indistinguable from the common cold. and you know what?? then it *is* the fukn common cold.
i guess someone forgot to tell them that. what a pity.

and this is the most logical method, well i guess its the only method left now. you know. could have done it 1 yearz ago, but whos counting.
ADE... yeah look that one up. it concerns you.








Antibody-dependent enhancement - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





i didn't really know it, but now i know it. turns out that pfizer is actually the ruling party in my country (by majority). what a fukn coincidence. since this is my favorite medical producer. i guess its a win/win situation here.

good luck everybody. you gonna need it. a lot more than i will. and i have an unknown hearth and lung disease most likely caused by the actual virus.

are you not entertained?


----------



## Michi

daveb said:


> Vax is supposed to do three things:
> 
> Keep the vaxee from contracting Covid
> Keep the vaxee from transmitting Covid
> Lessen the effects of Covid if contracted.


With Omicron, we are mostly getting the third one.

For the first two, it seems the vaccine helps somewhat, but not very effectively. I've seen figures of around 30% protection from contracting Covid. Not great, but better than nothing.

Sadly, effectiveness drops off over the next few months.

It does look like endless re-vaccination is not going to get on top of the problem. I've seen a few mentions of efforts to create a more versatile vaccine that protects against as yet unknown variants. But that's not going to be available any time soon, assuming that this approach will work.


----------



## LostHighway

Nemo said:


> This is indeed worrying. Especially the huge increase in 0-4 yo admissions. Are 0-4s able to be vaccinated in the US?



No vaccine for the under 5 cohort in the USA. 5 - 11 can get Pfizer but not Moderna so far.


----------



## Michi

inferno said:


> and from what i have read in my state propaganda news its indistinguable from the common cold. and you know what?? then it *is* the fukn common cold.


People don't die from the common cold. They do die from Covid, whether Delta or Omicron.


----------



## MarcelNL

No criticism, but why is NY the most vaxxed/boosted sample in the world?


----------



## parbaked

daveb said:


> Spike just hit, I'll get back to you in a week. This week had 4 residents positive in a 90 bed facility, 3 in a 60 bed facility. Typically the positive rate among staff and residents closely mirrors the local population which has just gone over 10%.
> Vax is supposed to do three things:
> Keep the vaxee from contracting Covid
> Keep the vaxee from transmitting Covid
> Lessen the effects of Covid if contracted.
> With most recent data from NY, probably the most vaxed / boosted data sample in the world, can the vax be said to be doing anything?



I'd argue that the vaccine is doing ok.
The vaccine is supposed to prevent serious illness and death.
How many of your staff and residents have gotten seriously ill, hospitalized or died?

Do you think it would be better or worse if no one in your facilities were vaccinated?
People who get flu shots still get the flu, but they get less sick.
Why is this any different?
The most important thing is to keep our hospitals functioning.
One can argue that if everyone was vaccinated, we'd be in a better place.

My parents are in assisted living. They have also had an outbreak. I am grateful that all staff and residents are vaccinated and, because of the outbreak, they now require testing for staff.


----------



## LostHighway

MarcelNL said:


> No criticism, but why is NY the most vaxxed/boosted sample in the world?


I assume that was a rhetorical question but I'll treat it as serious.
Actually it isn't. State wide NY 84% have received at least one dose and 72% have received two doses. In the City Manhattan and Queens are doing slightly better than the state but the other boroughs are worse than the state as a whole. Depending on how you count the third dose I think Chile and Malta can claim the two highest spots for most vaccinated right now but the UAE, Iceland, and Portugal are near the top as well, as is Denmark which is concerning.
Edit: FWIW all the New England states have higher vaccination rates than NY. NY is in seventh place edging out Maryland and New Jersey


----------



## Michi

Australia has >90% of the population over 12 years old vaccinated.

Omicron is ripping through regardless. But hospitalisations are way down from Delta; about ⅓ the number of hospitalisations or possibly less. It's a bit too early to tell whether the same applies to fatalities, but the early signs are encouraging.


----------



## dAtron

daveb said:


> Spike just hit, I'll get back to you in a week. This week had 4 residents positive in a 90 bed facility, 3 in a 60 bed facility. Typically the positive rate among staff and residents closely mirrors the local population which has just gone over 10%.
> 
> Vax is supposed to do three things:
> 
> Keep the vaxee from contracting Covid
> Keep the vaxee from transmitting Covid
> Lessen the effects of Covid if contracted.
> 
> With most recent data from NY, probably the most vaxed / boosted data sample in the world, can the vax be said to be doing anything?



Check the uk data and you will see a decoupling between cases and hospital admissions, icu admissions and deaths. Because we have a high vaccine uptake and booster uptake.


----------



## WiriWiri

Yup, Omicron is rife over here, or at least In London I‘ve never been aware of so many close to home cases. My wife tested positive on the 23rd Dec, which was a bit of a bummer for the Xmas plans. All a bit unexpected really - the test was just a precaution before travelling out that surprised us all. Effects did seem minor for her and the two kids (who also tested positive), although I know people who have been worse affected, particularly one unvaccinated type.,

Somewhat mystifyingly I managed to avoid consistently test negative throughout, despite living with plague-woman and our two space-disrespecting kids in a pokey, little house. Maybe that booster did something after all


----------



## ian

Give my best to plague-woman.


----------



## tcmx3

MarcelNL said:


> No criticism, but why is NY the most vaxxed/boosted sample in the world?



I feel like with all 3 variants we've gone through the same song and dance of people gloating about how NYC has it so bad and how much better it's going where they live, supposedly as evidence that some policy they dont like doesnt work, ony for them to immediately get exploded when it hits them even worse.

especially Florida.


----------



## Barmoley

Cases in LA county are through the roof. My kids' school had 38 cases today. My family already had omicron, all except me, at least I never tested positive and didn't have symptoms. We all had covid in February and are all vaccinated with 2 doses of Pfizer. My hope is that omicron will provide meaningful protection against other variants. Boosting every 2-3 month is not a viable solution in my opinion. It looks to be pretty impossible to avoid omicron for most people, it is just too contagious.


----------



## Luftmensch

MarcelNL said:


> I personally thing it's time to cross over from acute crisis management to long term strategies





MarcelNL said:


> Why not try to look a bit further than which ever administration is in power



I think you and I share a lot in common! On this point, perhaps you are an optimist and I am a pessimist... or I am just plain sceptical.

I actually agree with you 100%. It is the Government's role, no matter the color of their ties, to think long term and provide a strategy for society. But this is where my scepticism kicks in.... They are poor at doing it.

I think part of the problem is embedded in the increasing obsession with the individual (at least in the anglosphere). Modern politicians appear to arrogantly float above the fact that they are civil servants. They are there to make society function for *us*. Sure they might throw out glib lines that acknowledge their civic duty as part of their marketing material - but they do _not_ embody it. A significant number of politicians appear to be there for the perks: high incomes, decent pensions, insider knowledge and the opportunity to get lucrative sinecures at some consultancy when they leave politics.

That attitude translates into priorities. These politicians appear to be fighting to win the next argument... or at furthest... the next election. This only benefits them or their party. God forbid they look any further... particularly if it puts their short term ambitions at risk. It has become so bad that shame has died. So great is the entitlement of some people in office, no amount of $hit can stick... no matter how thick. Just step backwards, stop answering questions and continue.

I think this is why there is so much voter disaffection. For the past 2-3 decades, for the majority, it probably hasn't mattered which party has been at the wheel. Governments have not done bold projects that greatly increased the quality of life for its citizens. If you started off poor... your circumstance likely hasnt changed. Yet you watch these suits bicker about small detail and get paid 8 times your salary. No doubt they then retire and get paid 12 times your salary to go on speaking circuits and consult for big business (on top of their parliamentary pension).




Several pages ago it was a mildly funny joke that some American commentators were mourning the loss of Australia to 'fascism'. Apparently we are some hellish nightmare where we have no 'freedoms'.

After a few hollow laughs, it just becomes sad. These so called commentators clearly have little understanding of what fascism actually looks like (sardonic ha ha). But the _real_ naivety of these commentators is that they dont recognise they wear the same stripes as our current Government. That there is any difference in policy is merely a matter of culture; not politics. Yes America; we speak the same language and swap entertainment. But we dont think the same as you or expect the same things. Our current political pathway is as laz a faire as the politicians can get away with (limited by cultural expectations).

And that my friends is why....



Nemo said:


> no one in government had enough foresight to secure supply of the vials with the correct (smaller) dose.



Or RATS test... or preparing for a surge in PCR demand... They absolutely _did_ have the foresight. I guarantee you there is some 100 page document sitting on a minister's desk somewhere.... Some advisory panel made repeated calls to act in advance.... Some civil servant recommended a policy to the relevant department. All this foresight ignored.


A political commentator here said of our government, they have:



> a habit of allowing problems to become crises before mishandling them



This is hallmark laz a faire philosophy to me.... Get government 'out of people's lives' until the polls turn bad. Then do the absolute minimum to change the course of the discussion.


----------



## EricEricEric

I’m going to say this yet again, vaccines are virtually useless when it comes to readily mutating viruses. Why? Because your vaccine is ALWAYS behind the new variant and is immediately losing effectiveness 

What should we be using instead? Antiviral medications IMMEDIATELY upon suspicion of symptoms and/or infection

Remember at the very beginning of all of this they were telling all of those sick people to go right back home and to not come back until they were incredibly sick and as a result it was far too late for them when they finally came to the hospital

Finally, YOU are responsible for the state of your own health. Why does that matter? Around 95% of all the deaths came from people with MULTIPLE comorbidities, not one but MULTIPLE!

Such as obesity / morbid obesity, heart disease, type II diabetes, drug abuse, alcohol abuse, SMOKERS, lack of nutrients necessary for a strong immune system from REAL food and natural supplements, etc etc etc

Every single last one of these “diseases” can be avoided / corrected by simply working hard to live a healthy lifestyle 

Realistically the only people we should’ve lost were people with rare genetic diseases, the incredibly super senior, and people with rare viruses which would compromise their immune systems to a point that would leave them far too vulnerable. Those specific people, and ONLY those specific people could have isolated and would have been just fine once a lesser strain evolved as is now happening

We 100% failed by choosing to shoot down the use of immediate treatment with antiviral medications and choosing to live some of the most unhealthy life styles in the world with over half the USA population being obese 

We have some people on here saying that we could’ve avoided the majority of these deaths and they are absolutely correct, however their actions and thoughts took us in the completely opposite direction that would’ve easily accomplished that


----------



## sansho

Nemo said:


> Apparently because no one in government had enough foresight to secure supply of the vials with the correct (smaller) dose.



what? at least here, they're all multi-dose vials. are they really single-dose vials where you are?

or do you mean that they should've prescribed smaller doses?


----------



## Keith Sinclair

In a perfect world people would eat healthy food. Thing is thought was eating somewhat healthy found it just wasn't the case. 

With so many catching Omicron and if it really is as mild as some report seems like it could build up a heard immunity. As long as reasonably healthy had your shots, willing to lie around in bed for a few days.


----------



## daveb

tcmx3 said:


> what's the control group though?



My offerings here are observations from my little slice of the world and I've not suggested otherwise. They are not scientific, they are anecdotal. I don't read studies - they make my brain hurt. Any conclusions are subjective and they are not immutable.

I recognize that though these observations are based on first hand familiarity with ALF and Skilled Nursing Facilities, a few of which I'm in daily contact with, they do not constitute "research" by any stretch. 

QUOTE="parbaked, post: 874956, member: 34477"]
I'd argue that the vaccine is doing ok.
The vaccine is supposed to prevent serious illness and death.
How many of your staff and residents have gotten seriously ill, hospitalized or died?
Do you think it would be better or worse if no one in your facilities were vaccinated?
[/QUOTE]

My understanding is that a vaccine is to prevent the vaxee from contracting what he is being vaccinated for. The notion that it is to lessen the effects has been introduced (in my opinion) to justify continued vaccinations that don't work as a preventive. And while it may have been true with early iterations of Covid, I can see nothing to suggest that it is true with Omnicron.

We have had staff and residents seriously ill, and hospitalized but to my knowledge have not lost any to Covid. This was true through 2020 - before vaccines, since early 2021 with vaccines and currently with vaccines and boosters. In my observations the vaccines / boosters have made little if any difference from Delta on. 

My fully masked since the start, vaccinated since early 2021, staff and resident populations have pretty much mirrored the positive rates of the largely unvaxed, unmasked, local population. 

QUOTE="parbaked, post: 874956, member: 34477"]
One can argue that if everyone was vaccinated, we'd be in a better place.
[/QUOTE]

I'll accept that the vaccines probably do no harm and that they may have a positive effect. The notion that they are the end all solution for either prevention or reducing end effects falls apart with the Omnicron variant. The vaccines were designed for version 1.0 and we're at version 4.3 now.


QUOTE="parbaked, post: 874956, member: 34477"]
My parents are in assisted living. They have also had an outbreak. I am grateful that all staff and residents are vaccinated and, because of the outbreak, they now require testing for staff.
[/QUOTE]

Best to your parents through this. I think those of us in the senior industry do everything we can for our residents and I'm sure their ALF is no different. The period when the "scientists" prevented any personal family interaction was heart wrenching for everyone involved and probably accomplished nothing.

Per CDC an "outbreak" is one or more positive cases and most if not all facilities have had at least one outbreak over the last couple years. Again per CDC we started testing staff and residents in about April / May of 2020 and the frequency of testing is based on the number of positives in the local county population. At 10% or more, we're testing 2X / week currently.

PS I used NY and NYC because they are the most discussed populations in my world. If I'm wrong, and it seems I was, then with apologies I'll assert that it makes no difference to the discussion.


----------



## Luftmensch

EricEricEric said:


> Finally, YOU are responsible for the state of your own health. Why does that matter? Around 95% of all the deaths came from people with MULTIPLE comorbidities, not one but MULTIPLE!



What "YOU"??? Define "YOU"??? Where do you want to draw the line? I suppose in this individual responsibility utopia, when my lungs start leaking fluid and I develop respiratory distress; that is when I should start a medical degree and invest in my own ICU?? I know this is absurd... but clearly health is a complex topic that absolutely does make you reliant on others. Modern society have embedded various degrees of that responsibility in the services of the state - for moral/ethical and economic reasons.

Comorbidities are a separate discussion for a separate day. The population is what it is. The disease is what it is. We have to make decisions given the situation we are in. Not some alternate reality.




EricEricEric said:


> Realistically the only people we should’ve lost were people with rare genetic diseases, the incredibly super senior, and people with rare viruses which would compromise their immune systems to a point that would leave them far too vulnerable. Those specific people, and ONLY those specific people could have isolated and would have been just fine once a lesser strain evolved as is now happening



You aren't understanding the risks. Multiply rare events by a very large number of trials and they can become frequent enough. There have been enough examples of young people dying or becoming severely ill that this clearly isn't "a disease of the frail".

Adopting your approach of just treating people with antivirals when they turn up to hospital is profoundly dangerous:

Because you are choosing to _treat_ the disease rather than protect the population and _stymie the spread_... you will have an intense surge in spread
Because there is an intense surge in spread, hospitals will become overwhelmed
Because there is an intense surge in spread, 'rare' events will happen in common enough numbers
Because the hospitals are overwhelmed, there will be less capacity to treat new admissions. Including people who, by your measures, worked "hard to live a healthy lifestyle".... and presumably who you might consider to be more deserving of care??




But I am not really too interested in convincing you one way or the other. I dont think I will. Nor will you convince me.

At this point I am far more fascinated about how the ecosystem of information you live in has contributed to the conclusions you have drawn. But I am not so sure you are willing to review your information ecosystem? Are you getting most of your information from social media? Are you doing your own Google searches? Are you just observing others? Is it colleagues?


----------



## Nemo

sansho said:


> what? at least here, they're all multi-dose vials. are they really single-dose vials where you are?
> 
> or do you mean that they should've prescribed smaller doses?


Yes, they are still multi-dose but apparently a different vial and a different dose to the ones used for adults. IIRC the dose used for 5-11 is a third of the adult dose (which I think was 30mcg for Pfizer?). Apparently they are not allowed to use the vials intended for adults.


----------



## Greasylake




----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> My offerings here are observations from my little slice of the world and I've not suggested otherwise. They are not scientific, they are anecdotal. I don't read studies - they make my brain hurt. Any conclusions are subjective and they are not immutable.
> 
> I recognize that though these observations are based on first hand familiarity with ALF and Skilled Nursing Facilities, a few of which I'm in daily contact with, they do not constitute "research" by any stretch.



I mean it's fine. Im not really looking for scientific rigor here Im just asking more along the lines of what are we comparing New York to to decide whether they're doing better or worse than other places.

It has been the case in the US that New York is a leading indicator, at least for both of the first two strains. in a month we can look at other places and see how they did and maybe compare then, but right now at least in the US there's not another city we can compare wrt omicron.

if you go far enough back, Im from Florida myself. I recall distinctly the smugness of Floridian politicos who seem to view anything bad happening to New York not just with glee but as some sort of evidence for how great Florida is. strangely, we didnt hear much from them after COVID absolutely blasted their state. In fact, Florida has ended up with more deaths, enough that it at best washes out when you consider Florida is slightly more populous. 

it wont be possible to say how well or poorly NY has handled Omicron until we see how other places shake out.


----------



## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> Around 95% of all the deaths came from people with MULTIPLE comorbidities, not one but MULTIPLE!


As usual, no source. No source, no point.

Sure, there are people with diabetes, immune deficiencies, high blood pressure, old age, and a host of other conditions. Granted, a healthier life style would reduce the number of people who are affected by these conditions. But it would not come even close to eliminating them because quite a lot of co-morbidities have causes unrelated to life style.

Last time I looked (in my book), people with pre-existing conditions had a right to stay alive, too.


----------



## riba

Michi said:


> As usual, no source. No source, no point.
> 
> Sure, there are people with diabetes, immune deficiencies, high blood pressure, old age, and host of other conditions. Granted, a healthier life style would reduce the number of people who are affected by these conditions. But it would not come even close to eliminating them because quite a lot of co-morbidities have causes unrelated to life style.
> 
> Last time I looked (in my book), people with pre-existing conditions had a right to stay alive, too.


It's casually dismissing about half of the adult population of the US.


----------



## MarcelNL

dAtron said:


> Check the uk data and you will see a decoupling between cases and hospital admissions, icu admissions and deaths. Because we have a high vaccine uptake and booster uptake.View attachment 159399
> View attachment 159405
> View attachment 159400
> View attachment 159401
> View attachment 159402
> View attachment 159403
> View attachment 159404
> View attachment 159406


those numbers are indeed indicating there may be some light at the end of the tunnel, in most countries hospitalizations take a few weeks to peak once the infection numbers go up...let's hope this trend of increasing hospitalizations stops.

In the NL Omikron is now taking off on it's vertical trajectory...in contrast to the UK we do not have a large enough military medical force that can ease the burden on hospital staff like in the UK.


----------



## ian

EricEricEric said:


> I’m going to say this yet again, vaccines are virtually useless when it comes to readily mutating viruses. Why? Because your vaccine is ALWAYS behind the new variant and is immediately losing effectiveness



You keep saying this, but how do you square this with the discrepancy between the number of unvaccinated who are hospitalized or dying from covid with the number of vaccinated?

Then again, as far as I can see, you haven’t responded directly to a single person on this thread, so I think maybe the point is that you don’t have counterarguments. Rather, you’re just sharing your beliefs, which is fine, but probably the rest of us should start realizing that we’re not having a dialogue here.


----------



## Michi

ian said:


> the rest of us should start realizing that we’re not having a dialogue here.



Dogma.


> _Dogma is a belief or set of beliefs that is accepted by the members of a group without being questioned or doubted.
> […]
> In the pejorative sense, dogma refers to enforced decisions, such as those of aggressive political interests or authorities. More generally, it is applied to some strong belief which its adherents are not willing to discuss rationally._


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Word Influenza comes from being under the effect of the earth, moon, and stars. Humans didn't have any idea what was making them sick. They killed cats in Europe during the Black Death made it worse more rats and fleas. 

Single cell bacteria is oldest of life forms. Only 1% of bacteria is harmful to humans, but those can kill you. You have them on your skin, hair, all inside of body we couldn't survive without healthy bacteria. Antibacterial drugs can save your life, but overuse can make them lose effectiveness & they kill your good bacteria too.
Antibacterial wonder drugs were the cure all, but overuse even in animal breeds for food have been a mistake.

Bacteria and Virus love crowds when humans became more populated living in cities perfect breeding for microbes. 
They continue to mutate making old vaccines non affective against new virus strains. 

The doctor who realized that washing your hands prevented more patients from death was ridiculed and died an alcoholic. 

Not even through first of 4 DVD on Microscopic world, fascinating.


----------



## LostHighway

Duck and cover
The most recent US Community Profile report from the CDC This data is also available broken down to the county level

Boston area wastewater

Long covid I would read this with an extremely critical eye. The guy who complied this is a software geek not a medical doctor or virologist and I certainly haven't even dented his list of studies at this point. Caveat lector, but not good news.


----------



## MarcelNL

I never knew Semmelweiss did come to his end being manhandled in a psycho ward, I only knew that his contribution to medicine was awarded posthumously.

@LostHighway , interesting read!

Perhaps in here we find an explanation for the folks not believing Covid exists...
That seems to explain why there is evidence of persistent cognitive deficits in people who have recovered from SARS-CoV2 infection in Great Britain.
(20/)

*Cognitive deficits in people who have recovered from COVID-19*Interpretation. These results accord with reports of ‘Long Covid’ cognitive symptoms that persist into the early-chronic phase. They should act as a clarion call for further research with longitudinal…https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(21)00324-2/fulltext


----------



## riba

Not sure that study generalizes to the rest of the world. The British are a bit .... peculiar


----------



## Barmoley

LostHighway said:


> Duck and cover
> The most recent US Community Profile report from the CDC This data is also available broken down to the county level
> 
> Boston area wastewater
> 
> Long covid I would read this with an extremely critical eye. The guy who complied this is a software geek not a medical doctor or virologist and I certainly haven't even dented his list of studies at this point. Caveat lector, but not good news.



Reads like the sky is falling, we are all doomed. His solutions are not feasible especially now with omicron and not in the US or other countries with similar cultures. Checking the studies he collected is pretty impossible for anyone not specifically in the field and someone with a lot of time to follow them to the sources.

Not saying he is wrong, just no reasonable way to check and if he is right, we are all done for unless you manage to avoid getting the virus in your system. Even asymptomatic are not safe from damage according to him.


----------



## EricEricEric

U.K. Study Fails to Prove Masks Work in Schools

“Schools with face-covering rules in October 2021 saw their absence rate drop by 2.3 percentage points, to 3%, two to three weeks later. In schools that didn’t use masks, absences fell by 1.7 percentage points, to 3.6%.”

We are going to be seeing a lot more of this as everyone realizes face coverings are ineffective in day to day life

As soon as the facemask is worn it’s considered contaminated, and as soon as you touch that mask to move it wiggle it to take it off or anything your hands are immediately considered contaminated

Not only that but a virus particle that’s airborne will pass right through any fabric that’s not N95 and above and properly fitted, all it takes is one virus to infect one person

If a mask is not perfectly fitted the air that you breathe out doesn’t go perfectly through the mask it goes through the path of least resistance which is outside of the mask and then the virus hangs in the air for sometime

Droplet is also small enough to pass through a face mask that’s not N95 and above, and again if a person sneezes that virus is passing through the mask and it’s going to hang in the air for sometime even if it’s droplet





https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1044767/Evidence_summary_-_face_coverings.pdf




Here’s a second one


----------



## ian

Barmoley said:


> Reads like the sky is falling, we are all doomed. His solutions are not feasible especially now with omicron and not in the US or other countries with similar cultures. Checking the studies he collected is pretty impossible for anyone not specifically in the field and someone with a lot of time to follow them to the sources.
> 
> Not saying he is wrong, just no reasonable way to check and if he is right, we are all done for unless you manage to avoid getting the virus in your system. Even asymptomatic are not safe from damage according to him.



Kinda agree about that thread; @LostHighway was smart to say we should read it critically. I don't really know what to make of it, and I trust institutions of experts more than CS guys with twitter threads to present info in a way that's accurate and helpful to laypeople like me. That said, I didn't read the whole thread or look at many of the studies, so yea, I'm yet another underinformed internet commenter, and maybe that thread holds what we'll all know to be the truth in a year.

The other links posted are definitely frightening, though...


----------



## LostHighway

riba said:


> Not sure that study generalizes to the rest of the world. The British are a bit .... peculiar



There are a number of heads of state who have had covid but most of them seemed a little peculiar even before they had covid. It may prove to be a boon to politicians who might now point to covid rather than relying on the now tired "I have no recollection of those events"


----------



## Keith Sinclair

It's not in the interest of microbes to kill off all their host. They have uncanny ability to mutate around our defenses. The airplane much better than trains which were a advantage for them 19 & 20 centuries. Planes are worldwide host to infect. Wars, deforestation(stirring up dormant pathogens.) Air born virus are very effective in crowded situations. Not hard with over 7 billion of us. 

I got a bad infection on my thumb from weeding in rich volcanic soil. Wasn't even concerned about having dirt on hands & around fingernails & thumb. Bacteria helps to make soil breaking down organic substances. Had to take antibiotic to clear it out from around thumbnail. Was watching on my DVD how when humans went from hunter gather to farming bacterial 
sickness increased. Now use latex gloves never had a problem since. 

Vector borne diseases carried by insects have 
killed millions. Blood suckers take it from other animals & transfer to humans. 

Mosquitos 

Chikinguna - Virus 
Dengue- Virus 
Lymphatic Filarisis- Parasite 
Rift valley fever- Virus 
Malaria - Parasite 
West Nile fever - Virus 
Japanese Encephalitis - Parasite 
Tsetse Flies - Sleeping sickness.

Hawaii has had outbreaks of Rat Lungworm disease that affects Brain & Spinal Cord. 

Adult form only found in Rodents that pass larvae of worm in their feces. Snails and Slugs that are plentiful in Hawaii eat the feces & become infected they are intermediate host. 
Even the snails slime trail can infect humans.

Plague still exists in modern time in small pockets. That is rodent - flea- human. In the past several Bubonic Plagues have put a serious dent in the population. In the little ice age when temperature dropped very moist more rats.in Europe. Starvation because less crops were growing. Not a good time at all to be living in Europe.


----------



## Luftmensch

@daveb, I am not an expert in the field... but I consider myself 'science literate'. Maybe I can offer you a different perspective?

I don't think we recognise how skin deep our understanding of the world is. Often a gut feeling of how things work on a basic level is sufficient knowledge to function in society. On closer inspection, it can be obvious how little you know! Prior to this pandemic I had a fairly crude understanding of how vaccines work. Mind you, my understanding is still relatively unsophisticated! But the pandemic has drawn attention to them. 

Vaccines are quite fascinating. In post #980, I tried to emphasise the difference between infection and disease. This is worth raising again.



daveb said:


> My understanding is that a vaccine is to prevent the vaxee from contracting what he is being vaccinated for. The notion that it is to lessen the effects has been introduced (in my opinion) to justify continued vaccinations that don't work as a preventive.



I know you were using colloquial language here... but I'll explore the issue with you nevertheless. 

Think about it... a vaccine is a bunch of molecules/proteins injected into your muscle fibres. We live in environments where our bodies are continually assaulted by pathogenic organisms. There is NO WAY some tiny proteins in your body can prevent you from being infected by a pathogen. Only PPE can do that.

So what do vaccines do? They prepare our body for a response once we have _already been infected_.

Here is where it gets a bit grey (and interesting). What is infection? Is it one cell/virus replicating in your body? Does it have to be multiple cells/virus replicating in your body?? Do there have to be enough pathogens to be transmissible. I believe the medical science have reasonable broad definitions but there is a little bit of discussion about how to define it at a very fine scale.

If this seems overly pedantic, or just a matter of semantics, it is not! It is quite cool! I believe what you mean by the word 'prevent' is essentially a sterilising vaccine. Sterilizing vaccines stop an infection right in its tracks when it enters the body. At this stage the pathogen has already entered your body. The vaccine is able to prevent the pathogen from taking hold and replicating in any meaningful way. 

If this is logical to you so far... the it should be reasonable to conclude that vaccines are _not_ a binary defense mechanism (they either work or they dont). Instead, it is more productive to view vaccines are spectrum of responses. Some vaccines are super effective and can stop infections super quickly (but the infections still happen at some low level). Other vaccines are 'slower': the infections take a stronger hold before the body's immune response can completely neutralise the pathogens. Perhaps in these case you are 'asymptomatic' - you don't have the 'disease' but you have the pathogen replicating in your body. But there is still value here right? The vaccine has allowed your body to mount an immune response to an aggressive/invasive pathogen early enough to prevent you from getting the disease! And of course.... disease occur on a spectrum as well; right? Maybe you get the disease after vaccination but its severity has been reduced because your immune system has been primed to fight the pathogen.

Viewing the mechanism of infection and vaccines in this way helped me. Maybe there is value in it for you? I believe what I have said is broadly accurate... but I am happy to be corrected!


----------



## daveb

Thanks for taking the time to pen your thoughts. 

Most of my musings on the subject of the virus, vaccines and such may appear pointless rambling. I'm trying to offer a point of view (my own) that has me seeing the Covid phenomena differently from what is typically concluded from studies, reported on, presented as fact, etc. I'm the first to admit I don't always do a good job of articulating the point(s) I'm trying to make.

To the vaccines role as preventive and / or reducing effects I'll offer: My long held perception (and I think most people would agree) is that vaccines are to prevent (not reduce) effects from what is being vaccinated for. That is to say, IMO, the common view of a vaccine is binary (though I doubt most have put much thought into it) and is sterilizing (and I know most have not put much thought into that).

I know that the flu vaccine is trying to hit a moving target every year and some years it's more effective than others. But that effectiveness is measured by prevention. 

When I take my dog in to get a rabies vaccination, it is to prevent him from contracting rabies should he be exposed to it - it is not to reduce the effects of rabies should he contract it.

In both examples the incentive to get the vaccine is prevention. The metric of effectiveness is prevention. If the vaccine reduces effects after it failed to prevent contraction, I'm sure that can be seen as a good thing but the vaccine still failed.

My second problem with the "reduces effects" incentive is how is that measured? I'm out of my comfort zone here but not at all sure that comparing outcomes of a group that was unvaccinated to a group that was vaccinated can be used to confirm that "reduces effects" is true.

In my cynical opinion (IMCO) the "reduce effects" argument is being made to provide more incentive for people to take the vaccine and boosters and I question the validity of that argument. That world and national leaders have mandated, threatened, discriminated, all in the name of shot count does not play well with me and a little flexibility with definitions is not surprising.


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> My second problem with the "reduces effects" incentive is how is that measured? I'm out of my comfort zone here but not at all sure that comparing outcomes of a group that was unvaccinated to a group that was vaccinated can be used to confirm that "reduces effects" is true.



there's not a simple answer to this question at all.

if experiment design, causal statistics, trying to back out effects in dirty real world samples, frankly even conditional probabilities judging by this thread were trivial problem, they wouldn't be the majority of what you learn in every social science graduate program, nor would I be nearing a brain aneurysm from this thread some times.

the basic idea is you either need to find genuinely comparable groups who differ by the treatment or you need to get out your textbooks and start working through the methodologies to try and compensate for the fact that they aren't. then, you end up with a bunch of measures that still require adequate interpretation. then finally you go and show that to some idiot in the administration who looks you dead in the eyes and says "make it 5 days because I care more about the SP500 than your statistics or indeed the very people I am nominally supposed to be working for".

how is it measured? great question, there are tons of possible tests that may or may not tell us something useful. even finding the right instrument is kind of hard. is it deaths? hospitalizations? self reported symptoms? 

and your intuition that you cant just willy nilly compare the groups is actually quite correct. there's tons of differing behaviors and situations between the vaccinated and not. e.g. some people are immuno-compromised and cannot get it. obviously if they get sick and die but someone without that condition doesnt it would be completely spurious to suggest it was the vaccine.

that said, so far the evidence has lined up pretty favorably for the vaccine in clinical trials which are trying to address these things.


----------



## MarcelNL

there surely are data on how reduced effect of the vaccines was established, and I'm guessing here; the data probably is a conglomerate of signals, nr of infected under those vaccinated over time probably is a key factor. You can find the FDA advisory panel sessions on the FDA YT channel, in Sept there was not enough data to support boosters, two months later there was.

It's one thing that administrations communicate the measures, it's their scientific advisory committees that mull over the data, some of their recommendations become decisions and some are influenced by politics, economics or whatnot. Don't shoot the messenger, try find the source data and follow its trail...I for one do not see much that does not make sense or appears 'invented'. Vaccines work very good for x months but were created for Covid Mk1, the same thing applies to the booster but meanwhile we are with Covid Mk4 and in need of modified vaccines.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

I look at it in terms of football early in season when saw fans packed together with no mask was surprised, but at the time cases weren't increasing dramatically. Sturgis huge motorcycle rally only had limited cases. Thought good sign perhaps virus winding down. 

Switch to end of season Hawaii had to cancel bowl game because so many player sick. 

On pro level same time players & coaches out because positive for Omicron. Today Saturday Dallas played at Philadelphia. Dallas lit up depleted Eagles secondary. Few shots of the fans hardly any mask. I was even more surprised as we have yet to see this spike in cases turn. 

It's funny because been watching my great courses Mysteries of the Microscopic World 
last couple days. This morning watched the 1918 Spanish Flu. It is misnamed 
first case was in March 1918 in Kansas where persons were in close contact with animals.
Many Asian Virus have also began with people close to animals. In 1918 a large military base was nearby. It spread quickly solders died on troop ships going to Europe many more died after they got there. One year later it had become a worldwide Pandemic infecting as many as 500 million people. It is estimated over 50 million died. Making it one of the worst in all history. When troop ships came back to Philadelphia many with sick soldiers, city leaders said no big deal and held a large parade. Quite a few Philly people died from 1918 Flu. I wonder if those football fans chugging beer with no mask know of their history in late 1918. It was a nasty strain.

I have never experienced anything like this. Pandemic. Have a bunch of science DVD. That's my favorite subjects started with Astronomy set.
Very large many DVD I was hooked. Like history of wars too, couple cooking & history of beer.

On second of 4 disk really enjoying it since it is appropriate for our present time.


----------



## MarcelNL

BTW: infection is pretty solidly defined, the article below appears to be well written.









Infection - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Luftmensch

MarcelNL said:


> BTW: infection is pretty solidly defined, the article below appears to be well written.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Infection - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org





Sure!

Defining infection as a pathogen entering the body, replicating and causing an immune response is concise and neat. I have no qualms with it. I can see how it is useful for microbiologists, virologists and the field of immunology. Definitions are useful. 

On the other hand, medical clinicians tend to prefer _diagnosable_ (observable) evidence. You obviously have an infection if you have the corresponding disease. You also obviously have an infection if you are asymptomatic - that is; you can test for the presence of the pathogen. These are effectively threshold tests. If there is not enough information to deduce the presence of the pathogen... or the tests don't have a high enough precision... then the threshold has _not_ been passed. A responsible doctor will use cautious language in their diagnosis - they cant tell a patient that have been infected with something if there is no way of verifying that position. Instead they might say "you may have been exposed; I recommend you do <something> out of caution".

In other words, you can see how a microbiologist might be happy to assert that someone had an infection if the body summarily destroyed a pathogen... yet a doctor may find that untestable position to be wholly academic...

I am just trying to encourage the notion that these are terribly complex systems that occur on a continuum - not discrete outcomes. More generally (not specifically in response to you @MarcelNL), given the nature of Covid and its current vaccines; *I* believe this can be a useful way of thinking about the pandemic:

In some cases the 'infection' will be destroyed 'immediately' (sterilising immunity)
In some cases the infection will be asymptomatic
In some cases the disease will be mild
In some case the disease will be moderate
In some cases the disease will be severe
It is disappointing that the current vaccines do not provide sterilising immunity (first bullet). But it is a tricky disease! If the vaccines stymie the infection such that fewer people develop severe disease, then it clearly still has utility!

As I mentioned before; don't let perfection (it was very unlikely to be a sterilising vaccine) be the enemy of the good!!

If I am injecting confusion into the mix, I apologise. Similarly if I have made any mistakes!!


----------



## knifeknight

Omikron (symptomatic) cases in Germany (Data from RKI, weeks 49-52/2021), 77% completely or 3 times vaccinated….
The gouvernment keeps telling us that vaccins are highly effective…


----------



## Luftmensch

daveb said:


> Thanks for taking the time to pen your thoughts.



No wukkas cobber! Pleased to do it!




daveb said:


> My long held perception (and I think most people would agree) is that vaccines are to prevent (not reduce) effects from what is being vaccinated for. That is to say, IMO, the common view of a vaccine is binary (though I doubt most have put much thought into it) and is sterilizing (and I know most have not put much thought into that).



Absolutely! I am wholly empathetic to this position.

I think it is a reasonable shortcut so that people can get on with their lives. We have had amazing successes in the past century - Polio, MMR, Tetanus, Chicken Pox and HPV. These vaccines are so successful that you _may as well_ consider them a binary outcome (in reality there are caveats).

Like I said... I consider myself to be scientifically literate... Both through training and interest. My exposure to biology is largely through secondary education and popular science like New Scientist and Scientific American (aka not particularly deep). That background might make me _incrementally_ more informed than an average person. Even so... a year ago, I imagine if I was walking on the street and somebody stuck a microphone in my face and asked me to describe what vaccines do... I would probably say "they prevent disease"... despite knowing better.

But the last year has been complex. The current Covid vaccines are not effective in the same way that our other 'staple' vaccines are. This places a much greater burden on leaders to communicate their value as part of preventative health care. This has been a challenge and it is clear there are no quick and easy solutions.

I found it was easier to navigate the current information environment by reading some neutral sources out there. For instance, Wikipedia has pretty decent articles on vaccines and immunity. Even these articles can be overly technical! But they are a slow introduction to the sort of language and jargon that experts use in the media grabs.





daveb said:


> My second problem with the "reduces effects" incentive is how is that measured?



An obvious measurement is deaths. The next most obvious measurement is critical care numbers (e.g. ventilation etc..). We want to see these numbers go down. If people get the vaccine and the population still becomes crook from covid... but deaths, ICU numbers and length of admission go down... we are winning!

Another measurement is the severity of the symptoms. A lot of people talk about Covid becoming similar to the flu. That would be great! Many will get sick. The frail and unlucky will die. Many will get their seasonal boosters... others will not. Society will shrug and move on to the next catastrophe. But this lacks ambition! The flu sucks! It would be even _better_ if the vaccine reduced the severity of Covid to be more like the common cold!

Since I have made it a running theme ... this is all a continuum right? I am sure the emergency rooms will be happy to see these basic indicators move in a favourable direction and leave it at that. Basic hospital indicators aren't the highest standard for 'measurement'. For instance what if the vaccines aren't doing _anything_ and reduced numbers can be explained by a non-virulent Omicron.

Deeper into the continuum is causal analysis. As @tcmx3 articulated, this can be difficult to do. Unfortunately the world is messy. We don't have time to partition society and control for all the variables. It would also be unethical! The vaccines are available and circulating in the community for good reason. Instead, statisticians will have to gather data in the right way and from the right places. They'll need to construct well defined objectives and deploy the right statistical model on the data to generate a result. The results then need to be analysed and communicated in a way that has relevance for the broader community. It is time consuming work!


----------



## daveb

Luftmensch said:


> Deeper into the continuum is causal analysis.



Sorry to seem so stubborn on this but what I think we've seen is casual analysis. Let's sell this vaccine stuff appears to be the pre-determined outcome and the "analysis" supports it. Covid 1.0 has left the station and I'm sceptical that any of the current vaccines / boosters are impacting the Omni variant.

Still have memories of our own leaders ridiculing initial mitigation efforts, then mask for two weeks to flatten the curve and 20 gagillion people are going to die, and so on..... 

It's also not lost on me that when our polies wanted the numbers high, any and every hospitalization was attributed to Covid. Only now that the polies want the numbers low are hospitializations differentiated into "with" and "because". 

The only thing gagillion about the last three years is the amount of money the pharma industry (and our good mega doctor) has made off of the pandemic.

That none of the world or national bodies are seriously considering natural immunity instead of vaccines is another part of my equation. With the number of people that have contracted Covid, how many "need" the vaccines or boosters? And I'm not a black helicopters guy but do think that any comprehensive look at natural immunity would put the number of false positive tests into consideration - something that pharma does not want to talk about. 

Anyway, I don't think the vaccines will do any harm and recognize they may have some benefit. I'm fully vaxed (by this week's definition) and will get the booster for future employment, travel and we all know there are no atheists in the foxholes. 

Cheers


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> Sorry to seem so stubborn on this but what I think we've seen is casual analysis. Let's sell this vaccine stuff appears to be the pre-determined outcome and the "analysis" supports it. Covid 1.0 has left the station and I'm sceptical that any of the current vaccines / boosters are impacting the Omni variant.
> 
> Still have memories of our own leaders ridiculing initial mitigation efforts, then mask for two weeks to flatten the curve and 20 gagillion people are going to die, and so on.....
> 
> It's also not lost on me that when our polies wanted the numbers high, any and every hospitalization was attributed to Covid. Only now that the polies want the numbers low are hospitializations differentiated into "with" and "because".
> 
> The only thing gagillion about the last three years is the amount of money the pharma industry (and our good mega doctor) has made off of the pandemic.
> 
> *That none of the world or national bodies are seriously considering natural immunity instead of vaccines is another part of my equation.* With the number of people that have contracted Covid, how many "need" the vaccines or boosters? And I'm not a black helicopters guy but do think that any comprehensive look at natural immunity would put the number of false positive tests into consideration - something that pharma does not want to talk about.
> 
> Anyway, I don't think the vaccines will do any harm and recognize they may have some benefit. I'm fully vaxed (by this week's definition) and will get the booster for future employment, travel and we all know there are no atheists in the foxholes.
> 
> Cheers



I dont think that's true. both England and Australia have. both have changed their minds (quickly).


----------



## ian

daveb said:


> That none of the world or national bodies are seriously considering natural immunity instead of vaccines is another part of my equation. With the number of people that have contracted Covid, how many "need" the vaccines or boosters? And I'm not a black helicopters guy but do think that any comprehensive look at natural immunity would put the number of false positive tests into consideration - something that pharma does not want to talk about.



Guess this is a little complicated, since it's simpler to say “everyone get vaccinated” than it is to somehow get verification of previous infection, and you don’t want to encourage people to get infected instead of getting vaccinated. But yea, maybe that should be changed, and maybe we’ll see this kind of rule adopted in the US before too long. Idk.



daveb said:


> It's also not lost on me that when our polies wanted the numbers high, any and every hospitalization was attributed to Covid. Only now that the polies want the numbers low are hospitializations differentiated into "with" and "because".



Might very well be some truth to that. Also could just be because it’s complicated to differentiate between the two, so it wasn’t a huge priority at first. Probably a combination of factors.



daveb said:


> The only thing gagillion about the last three years is the amount of money the pharma industry (and our good mega doctor) has made off of the pandemic.



They certainly have. A parent-friend of mine who was a Moderna test subject just wrote an op ed explaining why he resigned from the trials basically for this reason.









Confessions of a 'human guinea pig': Why I'm resigning from Moderna vaccine trials


Volunteers like me let Moderna test its experimental vaccine and booster on us in order to help end this pandemic, not to make more pharma billionaires.




www.statnews.com





The health impacts have been pretty catastophic too tho.


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## gregfisk

Dave, I certainly understand your long standing belief on what a vaccine is supposed to do. We all grew up in the same world and vaccines are supposed to keep you from getting the disease your taking them for. The fact that the current vaccines aren’t doing that doesn’t mean they’re not working. They have been keeping people from dying or less ill for a long time now and even with Omicron I think they’re still doing that, at least if you have the booster. It’s unfortunate that they don’t work better but the fact we have them at all is pretty amazing. I think it’s been fairly well established by now that the vaccines keep people out of the hospital and therefore from dying. Omicron so far doesn’t seem as deadly, maybe it’s a blessing in disguise and will help with immunity, I guess time will tell. I know one thing for sure, omicron is extremely contagious because even with it being less severe hospitalizations are at record breaking numbers. In my small part of the world I’m finally seeing people all around me getting Covid. Every time I talk to a friend I hear about someone I know who has it. And since pretty much every person I know has at least two doses they are all breakthrough cases. One friend with the J&J single vaccine was down for two weeks with Delta, other than that the cases have all been fairly mild. It’s definitely getting harder to avoid around here.


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## EricEricEric

Yep, it’s starting to show again isn’t it? 



















knifeknight said:


> Omikron (symptomatic) cases in Germany (Data from RKI, weeks 49-52/2021), 77% completely or 3 times vaccinated….
> The gouvernment keeps telling us that vaccins are highly effective…
> 
> View attachment 159616


----------



## Keith Sinclair

All those microscopic illness & death built up resistance in Europeans. When they sailed to new world what they carried decimated native populations. It happened in Hawaii too native Polynesians we're almost wiped out. Syphilis, influenza, measles, small pox, leprosy. By 1840 
only 62 years after James Cook landed number of Hawaiians had fallen over 84%. Census 1920 declared 24,000 down from hundreds of thousands before contact.


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## MarcelNL

Nothing against quitting participation in any study, I'll just say that the informed consents are quite specific these days.

Making sure natural immunity is effective involves testing, and those tests are seriously difficult -not a matter of ticking a box if you've tested positive and later negative. Doing those tests large scale is not an easy task.Also; pharma does not drive vaccination or testing decisions.

BTW: 15B in sales revenue does not equal 15 B in profit..(although the numbers produced/sold mean interesting profits even when the margin is low) selling billions of vials means large investments in study cost, pharmacovigilance, manufacturing, huge cost due to large scale operations everywhere...transporting and keeping a drug in storage (esp -80'C) is expensive...sure, there is money made on each vial yet I know for a fact that by far the most non generic drugs have a much more favorable ROI. Pharma companies make money off inventing new drugs and need to keep their investors happy, so do many hospitals in countries like the US...does anyone know how much revenue was made on ICU bills alone?


The good news is that vaccines still prevent greater havoc to happen...just look at the difference in ICU population vaxxed vs non vaxxed, a striking difference I'd say. If the vaccine and booster in the end of day did cost me a couple of hundred bucks out of pocket (somehow we'll pay) and it cuts being off work due to Covid by a day it was worth it to me, conveniently forgetting ending up in ICU or worse.


----------



## MarcelNL

LostHighway said:


> There are a number of heads of state who have had covid but most of them seemed a little peculiar even before they had covid. It may prove to be a boon to politicians who might now point to covid rather than relying on the now tired *"I have no recollection of those events"*



Our past and future PM did not need Covid to claim no recollection on several occasions when caught lying flat out.... I'm sure he'll use it at some point in the near future!


----------



## Luftmensch

EricEricEric said:


>



Absurd... I have a rant pre-prepared you.

For any KKF members who want to walk through what happened in Australia in the past month, I will be happy to do my best. Just ask. What happened was part of a plan that did not adjust for Omicron and was dripping with political ideology. We are now paying the price.


----------



## ian

Yikes, maybe I haven't been paying attention enough, but this graph surprised me. (From NYT.) Deaths seem like they're trending higher than I'd hoped they would with Omicron.

Explanation: The death graphs are shifted to the left by 21 days so that the peaks match those of the case numbers. The heights of the graphs are scaled so that "100%" is the largest number of cases (or deaths) at any time in the past year. (Note that the cases and deaths graphs are displayed at different scales! Covid is not 75% deadly!) To me, the content here is that the recent peak in the death graph is only like 3/4-5/6 or so the height of the recent peak in the case graph, rather than lower.


----------



## Michi

NSW published quite detailed figures about infection rates of vaccinated and unvaccinated people, as well as hospitalisations and fatalities.

Here are some interesting figures.

Vaccination status of cases in NSW:




Looking at this graph, the immediate reaction is "look, most cases are vaccinated people, the vaccines don't work."

Looking a bit more closely, it is obvious that, during the Delta wave (August to end of October), there were way more unvaccinated cases than vaccinated ones. Then, during the Omicron wave (still ongoing), we see that, from mid-December (which is when the wave started here), vaccinated cases vastly outnumber unvaccinated ones.

How come? Two reasons, I believe:

The vaccines are a lot less effective at preventing infection with Omicron than with Delta.
At a vaccination rate of over 90%, there are nine times as many vaccinated targets for the virus than unvaccinated ones, so the vaccinated cases outnumber the unvaccinated ones.
Now let's look at the vaccination status of hospitalised cases in NSW:




Now the picture is very different. Unvaccinated hospitalisations vastly outnumber vaccinated ones for both Delta and Omicron. There is an uptick of hospitalisations in December, but it is small, despite the hugely higher number of infections.

The picture is very similar for ICU cases:




Unvaccinated people are way more likely to end up in ICU. Although there are fewer than 10% unvaccinated people in the state, they account for ten times as many ICU cases. In plain text: per capita, unvaccinated people are 100 times more likely to end up in ICU than vaccinated people.

And here is the status for fatalities:




Despite accounting for < 10% of the population, unvaccinated people account for about five times as many fatalities. Translation: an unvaccinated person is about 50 times more likely to die from Covid than a vaccinated person.

I think this makes it abundantly clear that, while the vaccines don't protect well against infection with Omicron, they greatly reduce the risk of hospitalisation and death.

In my book, that's a huge win.


----------



## EricEricEric

I feel my greatest fears are coming true here as the connection strengthens and the bigger picture becomes more and more clear


----------



## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> the bigger picture becomes more and more clear


Please avoid blindly copying and pasting lies.

Wild claims about CDC PCR alert don’t pass the test



> *THE VERDICT*
> The CDC has not declared that its PCR test or any similar tests for COVID-19 cannot differentiate between influenza and the coronavirus, nor did the test fail a review as claimed.
> 
> The CDC said the test was not being withdrawn for any issues relating to its performance. Rather, it is withdrawing its initial test from use due to the widespread adoption of newer PCR tests which enable laboratories to simultaneously test for COVID-19 and influenza viruses, saving time and resources.
> 
> False – Content that has no basis in fact.


----------



## MarcelNL

man o man o man, what a bunch of nonsense, either pick some misinformation from places where we cannot verify it, OR; much preferred; try verify it yourself.

A pity the page is not translated but here is the Dutch CBS page with more information on excess deaths than just one number. Gezondheid in coronatijd


----------



## MarcelNL

Michi said:


> NSW published quite detailed figures about infection rates of vaccinated and unvaccinated people, as well as hospitalisations and fatalities.
> 
> Here are some interesting figures.
> 
> Vaccination status of cases in NSW:
> View attachment 159749
> 
> Looking at this graph, the immediate reaction is "look, most cases are vaccinated people, the vaccines don't work."
> 
> Looking a bit more closely, it is obvious that, during the Delta wave (August to end of October), there were way more unvaccinated cases than vaccinated ones. Then, during the Omicron wave (still ongoing), we see that, from mid-December (which is when the wave started here), vaccinated cases vastly outnumber unvaccinated ones.
> 
> How come? Two reasons, I believe:
> 
> The vaccines are a lot less effective at preventing infection with Omicron than with Delta.
> At a vaccination rate of over 90%, there are nine times as many vaccinated targets for the virus than unvaccinated ones, so the vaccinated cases outnumber the unvaccinated ones.
> Now let's look at the vaccination status of hospitalised cases in NSW:
> View attachment 159751
> 
> Now the picture is very different. Unvaccinated hospitalisations vastly outnumber vaccinated ones for both Delta and Omicron. There is an uptick of hospitalisations in December, but it is small, despite the hugely higher number of infections.
> 
> The picture is very similar for ICU cases:
> View attachment 159752
> 
> Unvaccinated people are way more likely to end up in ICU. Although there are fewer than 10% unvaccinated people in the state, they account for ten times as many ICU cases. In plain text: per capita, unvaccinated people are 100 times more likely to end up in ICU than vaccinated people.
> 
> And here is the status for fatalities:
> View attachment 159753
> 
> Despite accounting for < 10% of the population, unvaccinated people account for about five times as many fatalities. Translation: an unvaccinated person is about 50 times more likely to die from Covid than a vaccinated person.
> 
> I think this makes it abundantly clear that, while the vaccines don't protect well against infection with Omicron, they greatly reduce the risk of hospitalisation and death.
> 
> In my book, that's a huge win.




Great summary of information! What I see as positive sign is that the data sets that I looked at seem to indicate a very similar picture, just as if Covid has no borders nor does it have a political affiliation ;-)


----------



## Keith Sinclair

All the Hoop & Hollar about about vaccines not working on Omicron. The charts Michi posted 
are pretty much what scientist in the field of infectious microbes are saying. 

Even flu vaccine has to be manipulated to address different strains. These tiny invaders 
are always finding ways around our defenses. 
They puncture cell wall encasing themselves in 
cell membrane so bodies defenses won't recognize them as foreign microbes. The complexity of what goes on at cellular level is truly amazing. Not like right or wrong vacinne it's a fluid ever changing landscape of biology.
Don't care about politics just a host to multiply in & spread to others. 


Bacteria is the earliest life form. 
They are still here in the mega trillions. That's survivor. We have beneficial bacteria separate life forms in our bodies. Yet there are deadly bacteria that can kill us.


----------



## Michi

Another very clear graph of ICU cases:



Of all the cases in ICU, 6.55% had two doses of the vaccine, and 7.49% had a single dose. The remaining 85.96% are unvaccinated.

If you want to avoid ending up in ICU, getting vaccinated looks like an excellent idea.


----------



## Luftmensch

After some lengthy consideration,

I think KKF needs to talk about preserving aspect ratios when posting images. THAT is the pressing issue here...


----------



## dAtron

Luftmensch said:


> After some lengthy consideration,
> 
> I think KKF needs to talk about preserving aspect ratios when posting images. THAT is the pressing issue here...


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> THAT is the pressing issue here...


I'd say it's more of a stretching issue…


----------



## chefwp

Let the data show the vaccine hesitant what they need to know


----------



## knifeknight

chefwp said:


> Let the data show the vaccine hesitant what they need to know
> View attachment 160002
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 160003




Source ?


----------



## chefwp

knifeknight said:


> Source ?


I saved the images out of a daily email I get from the New York Times. I'll see if I can find a link to it on their site.


----------



## chefwp

knifeknight said:


> Source ?











A Growing Gap


We look at Omicron’s toll in New York and Seattle, two cities with timely data.




www.nytimes.com


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Many of public school students in America come from middle- lower middle class families. Both parents working no one to take care of kids much less supervise virtual learning. It's the same situation here. In areas where both parents work & now with teachers not showing up because either sick or because of high Omicron case numbers including children. Classes with no teachers are moved to large areas like cafeterias. Also school lunches are subsidized. As tcmx3 mentioned 
Public schools are baby sitting. They are and more.There is talk of closing public schools until this Omicron starts going down. That will 
mean kids with no supervision.


----------



## MarcelNL

the land of of the unlimited possibilities might want to rethink some things....


----------



## gregfisk

UW Medicine has been a timely and accurate source of Covid information in the US since the beginning of this pandemic and so has NY, but from a different perspective. I have several friends who work in UW hospitals in Seattle and surrounding areas which I’ve mentioned before. If you look at the information just posted about these two cities and the information posted by Michi just prior in this thread, it’s extremely clear, to me anyway that getting vaccinated is the intelligent and the right thing to do. What my Dr, Nurse, Pharmacist friends have been telling me in the last couple of years lines up perfectly with these studies. Getting vaccinated gives you the best chance of surviving Covid with the least risk to your health. Why people post nonsense studies trying to get people to not vaccinate and raising doubt is something that I simply don’t understand. A healthy dose of skepticism when it comes to politicians telling you what to do is a good thing but when scientists who are professionals in their fields put out information that can save your life you should listen. When did not trusting your government turn into not trusting science?


----------



## tcmx3

Keith Sinclair said:


> Many of public school students in America come from middle- lower middle class families. Both parents working no one to take care of kids much less supervise virtual learning. It's the same situation here. In areas where both parents work & now with teachers not showing up because either sick or because of high Omicron case numbers including children. Classes with no teachers are moved to large areas like cafeterias. Also school lunches are subsidized. As tcmx3 mentioned
> Public schools are baby sitting. They are and more.There is talk of closing public schools until this Omicron starts going down. That will
> mean kids with no supervision.



yep.

and I simply do not believe people are saying this because they care about kids or the widening education gap. when I posited we could do any of the things we would do outside of the pandemic to do so first it was absolute crickets. same response when I point out that covid disproportionately affects folks other than those arguing to open things up or relax rules for their convenience or whatever.

I guess the question I have is do people know. is this some sort of subconscious lack of understanding or do people _know_ the consequences of what theyre suggesting?

I just have too little insight into the minds of others to say myself


----------



## Barmoley

MarcelNL said:


> the land of of the unlimited possibilities might want to rethink some things....


It's hard. You have to remember that even though we talk of the US as one country, which it is, it is a huge and very diverse country. Even public schools as much as we like to criticize them are much better and sometimes excellent in better areas. In poor neighborhoods it is tough to get good teachers, there is very little parent support. In addition there are social and economic issue that don't exactly prioritize doing well in school. It is a problem that needs to be solved, but it is not a simple one. Just throwing money at it won't work. There was a period when they bussed kids from poorer areas to better schools in order to fix some of these issues. Unfortunately, this didn't work.


----------



## chefwp

Whatever works.

*First-dose vaccinations quadruple in Quebec ahead of restrictions at liquor and cannabis stores*


----------



## daveb

Two shots for the price of one?


----------



## Keith Sinclair

That's how you get the unvac holdouts hit em where it hurts booze & weed. Put tax on being unvax


----------



## MarcelNL

unbelievable it is, but the nonsense going around is unbelievable....just yesterday I spoke with that person who used to be ICU nurse in Europe I mentioned earlier. Now living in Tx. she needs to travel to Brazil for business for our project and she was letting me know she heard from a friend living there that the situation in Brazil is straight out crazy. Next thing was that she does not have a worry in the world as she is so healthy and had a mild case back in the early days of the pandemic.
Next she said that there may be issues getting in as she is not vaxxed but she will get a PCR and Antigen test and will see how she can get there. Initially I thought that Bolsonaro would not have made vaccination mandatory but he did...She true pearl was that she was warning me that over 80% of folks who got a booster were getting Covid and that natural immunity is so much better, . I just had to bite my lip


----------



## sansho

MarcelNL said:


> over 80% of folks who got a booster were getting Covid



weird. just today, some guy was telling me that a bunch of people he knows (or supposedly friends of friends or something?) that got the booster got covid soon after. i wonder if that's a coincidence or if something's driving that in the public mind. i'm not really tuned into social media.


----------



## MarcelNL

I'd say that observation bias is more likely, and that the boosters are administered because we know the effectivity of the vaccines is decreasing and in a downward slope, the booster takes like 14 days to kick in while Omikron is on an incredibly steep upward slope.

I just got my booster a few days ago and it would not surprise me if I get Omikron before the booster is effective


----------



## MarcelNL

chefwp said:


> Whatever works.
> 
> *First-dose vaccinations quadruple in Quebec ahead of restrictions at liquor and cannabis stores*



they might want to rethink that as a study shows Cannabis may have virus inhibiting properties








Assessment of antiviral potencies of cannabinoids against SARS-CoV-2 using computational and in vitro approaches


Effective treatment choices to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) are limited because of the absence of effective target-based therapeutics. The main object of the current research was to estimate the antiviral activity of ...




www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov





Probably not good to smoke it, but still.


----------



## Luftmensch

chefwp said:


> Let the data show the vaccine hesitant what they need to know
> View attachment 160002
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 160003



Interesting....

The "Not fully vaccinated" data is subtle. I assume that mixes "no vaccination" together with "partial vaccination"?

Look back at the graphs @Michi posted. In the NSW data, _partial_ vaccination has shown to be reasonably effective at preventing hospitalisation, ICU admittance and death. If you could similarly split the NY Times "not fully vaccinated category" into "partial vaccination" and "no vaccination", it is likely deaths per 100,000 would be higher for "no vaccination"...

... In other words... in the NY Times graphs, there is a good chance the "partially vaccinated" contribution to "Not fully vaccinated" is balancing out some of the poor performance of the "no vaccination" cohort. I guess the opposite is also true!


Maybe my logic is wrong...


----------



## MarcelNL

You need to be very careful and find the definition for fully vaccinated, in some countries/graphs that means 2 vaccinations and in some it includes getting a booster!

What I'd like to see is a graph including data on with hospitalization and death for the folks who had a proven case of Covid (positive PCR followed by a negative PCR sometime later). I suspect 'natural immunity' does something but not anywhere near as reliable as the vaccination programs...


----------



## ian

sansho said:


> weird. just today, some guy was telling me that a bunch of people he knows (or supposedly friends of friends or something?) that got the booster got covid soon after. i wonder if that's a coincidence or if something's driving that in the public mind. i'm not really tuned into social media.



Idk the timeline here, but if everyone gets boosters right before the Omicron wave, you’ll likely have a bunch of infections after being boosted. (Those infections probably will be less severe on average than if they hadn’t been boosted tho.) Also, yea, observational bias.


----------



## Michi

ian said:


> Idk the timeline here, but if everyone gets boosters right before the Omicron wave, you’ll likely have a bunch of infections after being boosted.


Post hoc ergo propter hoc.


----------



## JDA_NC

Barmoley said:


> It is a problem that needs to be solved, but it is not a simple one. Just throwing money at it won't work. There was a period when they bussed kids from poorer areas to better schools in order to fix some of these issues. Unfortunately, this didn't work.



You might find this article/situation interesting:









The New Secession


Residents of the majority-white southeast corner of Baton Rouge want to make their own city, complete with its own schools, breaking away from the majority-black parts of town.




www.theatlantic.com





*"A pattern has emerged over the past two decades: White, wealthy communities have been separating from their city’s school districts to form their own. According to a recent report from EdBuild, a nonprofit focused on public-school funding, 73 communities have split to form their own school districts since 2000, and the rate of places doing so has rapidly accelerated in the past two years. St. George, which activists seek to incorporate as a city, is a textbook example.

Oftentimes, in these instances, predominantly white parents are trying to break away from a majority-minority school district, which in turn isolates their property-tax dollars in a new district. (Many public schools rely heavily on property taxes.) The argument, then, is that the parents can better dictate how their money is being spent.

St. George is no different. The proposed area is more than 70 percent white and less than 15 percent black, while East Baton Rouge Parish is roughly 46.5 percent black. St. George supporters decry the violence and poor conditions of the public schools in Baton Rouge. Their tax dollars, they have argued, aren’t being put to good use. (Representatives for the St. George campaign’s organizers did not respond to multiple requests for comment for this article, including several emails, phone calls, and Facebook and LinkedIn messages.)

...

For decades, Baton Rouge’s schools operated under a desegregation order, imposed in 1956 after the Brown v. Board of Education ruling. That order meant, in theory, that the integration of the city’s schools was being closely monitored. But in 2003, a federal judge lifted the order; at the time, it was the longest-standing such order in the country. When the order was lifted, the school district was 75 percent black; now it is 81 percent black, and 89 percent minority overall—due in no small part to the three communities that have separated from East Baton Rouge Parish since."*









Trial over creating St. George expected in 2022, but incorporation could be years away


The legal fight over whether St. George gets to become an actual city will likely play out in the spring — more than two years after voters in southeastern East




www.theadvocate.com





All of our institutions seem to be crumbling - political, educational, social, etc...


----------



## tcmx3

Barmoley said:


> There was a period when they bussed kids from poorer areas to better schools in order to fix some of these issues. Unfortunately, this didn't work.



"this didnt work"

well that's a matter of perspective.

was it popular? no. were white parents having absolute meltdowns that black kids were going to their schools? yes. was it so politically toxic that the current president of the united states partnered with southern segregationists to abolish it? also yes.

however, in terms of having positive education outcomes, bussing actually did work.

it not working is one of those "obvious" things that has become "true" with decades of people simply repeating it without ever attaching any evidence to it.

so did it work? again depends on your perspective.

also you claim just throwing money at it doesnt work have we ever done that? has it ever been the case that black schools were funded as well as white schools? because I used to work in education and I can tell you from actually going through big public school district budgets that as of a decade ago when I started the per student funding gap in some states could get as high as 10k per student per year (e.g. Pennsylvania). maybe we could try actually throwing money at the problem for once. and I dont mean, and I cannot be any clearer about this, throwing the money at the education grifter companies like the testing companies, textbook companies, in-school police forces, etc. I mean give all the schools the same amount of money per student and see what happens throw money at it.


----------



## MarcelNL

What is it that makes it appear to me that about EVERYTHING that is wrong (my judgment) in the US cannot be solved because of politicians from either side blocking whatever was done by or for 'the other side'? Or is that observation completely off?

Can't there be a mutual interest to solve an issue in a way that serves ALL people in an equal manner or is the selfishness individualism just progressed too far? I just don't get it, we have schools in neighborhoods with lots of children from immigrant families due to the location of the school and the composition of the residents living in a neighborhood but those schools get more funding and manpower etc in an attempt to improve things for those kids.


----------



## tcmx3

MarcelNL said:


> What is it that makes it appear to me that about EVERYTHING that is wrong (my judgment) in the US cannot be solved because of politicians from either side blocking whatever was done by or for 'the other side'? Or is that observation completely off?
> 
> Can't there be a mutual interest to solve an issue in a way that serves ALL people in an equal manner or is the selfishness individualism just progressed too far? I just don't get it, we have schools in neighborhoods with lots of children from immigrant families due to the location of the school and the composition of the residents living in a neighborhood but those schools get more funding and manpower etc in an attempt to improve things for those kids.



what you're perceiving is:


https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/files/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf



_But the picture changes markedly when all three independent variables are included in the multivariate Model 4 and are tested against each other. The estimated impact of average citizens’ preferences drops precipitously, to a non-significant, near-zero level. Clearly the median citizen or “median voter” at the heart of theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy does not do well when put up against economic elites and organized interest groups. The chief predictions of pure theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy can be decisively rejected. Not only do ordinary citizens not have uniquely substantial power over policy decisions; they have little or no independent influence on policy at all._

the way education is funded in the US, ie with a split of state and local taxes, it is obvious that wealthy families who wish to hoard education dollars merely need to move to areas with uniformly expensive housing and strict zoning laws. this area might be filled with the single family homes that wealthy families prefer, but in order to have the space to do so, they probably have to be adjacent to the cities, rather than in them, to balance access to employment with the need for land. they'd probably like to make it legally binding that only people they like can live there, but if it were say, the 1960s, courts might decide they cant do that, but then they find out that they dont even have to. maybe they could call these places something... maybe suburb is a good word?


----------



## MarcelNL

let me re-read that a couple of times, I must have attended a school in a poor neighborhood ;-)


----------



## MarcelNL

So....the article says that it seems to be supported by evidence that might be somewhat solid that the wealthy have a much bigger say in what happens than the middle and lower classes? (I dread the time when saying - class is no longer politically correct) 

Holy crap, I'm used to clearly structured literature, with an intro, background, hypothesis, methods, results, conclusion, discussion, references and all that...this reads as if some politician wrote an article...I mean 'estimated impact' 'does not do well' 'chief predictions of pure theories' PAH Hogwash and poppycock ;-)


_Each of four theoretical traditions in the study of American politics—which can be characterized as theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy, Economic-Elite Domination, and two types of interest-group pluralism, Majoritarian Pluralism and Biased Pluralism—offers different predictions about which sets of actors have how much influence over public policy: average citizens; economic elites; and organized interest groups, mass-based or business-oriented. A great deal of empirical research speaks to the policy influence of one or another set of actors, but until recently it has not been possible to test these contrasting theoretical predictions against each other within a single statistical model. We report on an effort to do so, using a unique data set that includes measures of the key variables for 1,779 policy issues. Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence. The results provide substantial support for theories of Economic-Elite Domination and for theories of Biased Pluralism, but not for theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy or Majoritarian Pluralism._


And suburbanites create their own school environment by virtue of clustering in their own getto? That in itself is no different anywhere, as schools with kids from families with better education/higher income will probably do better...


----------



## tcmx3

MarcelNL said:


> And suburbanites create their own school environment by virtue of clustering in their own getto? That in itself is no different anywhere, as schools with kids from families with better education/higher income will probably do better...



more or less.

what is unique about the united states though is how much of education is funded through local taxes on the values of properties. the state gives an amount per student, in some states it's as little as 50% of their estimate for how much it should cost to educate the kids. the rest of the money is made up, mostly but not always, by taxes that are a percentage of the value of the properties the parents live at. you might think that this would be to cover higher costs, but it WAY more than makes up for the cost.

as a result, the average student in an inner city school actually has far fewer funds allocated to them. btw if you actually look the inner city schools often have significantly larger special ed populations, and special ed students are more expensive to educate. there are other things too like the state governments allow the telecoms to not provide services so you often see poor internet access not only at home for the kids who attend these schools but poor internet access at the school itself. does anyone here want to content that you dont need the internet in 2022? doubt it.

so to say we cant solve the problem with money, I would contend we've never actually tried to.


----------



## LostHighway

tcmx3 said:


> btw if you actually look the inner city schools often have significantly larger special ed populations, and special ed students are more expensive to educate.



Good post! Perhaps you are lumping them in with special ed as a catchall but inner city schools also tend to have far more ESL students.


----------



## Luftmensch

MarcelNL said:


> You need to be very careful and find the definition for fully vaccinated, in some countries/graphs that means 2 vaccinations and in some it includes getting a booster!



Sure,

Down Under that means a full course of approved vaccines (one does J&J or two doses of AZ, Pfizer etc). Boosters remain optional for now... Part of that is likely due to the fact that we had such a slow roll out of vaccines last year (stroll-out). Because a large cohort accessed vaccinations late, our middle aged and younger population will only be eligible for boosters this month or next. The boosters are here and people are willing, it is just a matter of waiting the full four months.

The vaccination data is being recorded by our Government. The public healthcare scheme (Medicare) has all of this information. In theory we should be able to retrospectively analyse the effect various vaccination outcomes (number of doses, timing, prior health conditions). In practice the data is probably difficult to access and match due to privacy concerns and the glorious navigability of various IT systems cobbled together using 1990's technology that was patched ad infinitum.

The EU have taken an interesting and smart route. Again, certificates are issued for a full course of approved vaccines (one or two dose schedules). As I understand it, the interesting addition is that the vaccine certificates expire after 9 months after your last shot. I believe you need boosters to renew the certificate? Interestingly I dont think they have determined an expiry period for the booster shots but are reserving the right to do so.


----------



## Luftmensch

ian said:


> if everyone gets boosters right before the Omicron wave



We did that by accident during Delta. The reason was incompetence but the effect was useful. It just so happened that the vaccine taps opened during last year's Delta wave. Some people called that 'real-time vaccination' - the implication being, people had maximum vaccine efficacy during the wave.

Like I said in the previous post, many people are still waiting for their 4-month period to end so that they can get a booster. Since Omicron took over in December, we missed the opportunity for another round of 'real-time' vaccination.


----------



## Luftmensch

MarcelNL said:


> Holy crap, I'm used to clearly structured literature, with an intro, background, hypothesis, methods, results, conclusion, discussion, references and all that...this reads as if some politician wrote an article...I mean 'estimated impact' 'does not do well' 'chief predictions of pure theories' PAH Hogwash and poppycock ;-)





Writing is half the battle right??


----------



## EricEricEric

Every day more interesting data is released 









Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in community-dwelling populations with emphasis on the elderly: An overview


Objective This mixed design synthesis aimed to estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in community-dwelling elderly populations and other age groups from seroprevalence studies. Protocol: <https://osf.io/47cgb>. Methods and analyses Eligible were...




www.medrxiv.org


----------



## Barmoley

tcmx3 said:


> "this didnt work"
> 
> well that's a matter of perspective.
> 
> was it popular? no. were white parents having absolute meltdowns that black kids were going to their schools? yes. was it so politically toxic that the current president of the united states partnered with southern segregationists to abolish it? also yes.
> 
> however, in terms of having positive education outcomes, bussing actually did work.
> 
> it not working is one of those "obvious" things that has become "true" with decades of people simply repeating it without ever attaching any evidence to it.
> 
> so did it work? again depends on your perspective.
> 
> also you claim just throwing money at it doesnt work have we ever done that? has it ever been the case that black schools were funded as well as white schools? because I used to work in education and I can tell you from actually going through big public school district budgets that as of a decade ago when I started the per student funding gap in some states could get as high as 10k per student per year (e.g. Pennsylvania). maybe we could try actually throwing money at the problem for once. and I dont mean, and I cannot be any clearer about this, throwing the money at the education grifter companies like the testing companies, textbook companies, in-school police forces, etc. I mean give all the schools the same amount of money per student and see what happens throw money at it.


Like I said, unfortunately this program did not work. Were there some positive outcomes, I hope so and it seems like there should be. Very hard to prove one way or the other, overall it was not a success, unless you have some proof to the contrary. This program won‘t be reinstated, most likely.

As far as just throwing money at the schools, it is not enough. For one, kids and teachers need to feel safe inside and outside of the schools for best learning results.


----------



## MarcelNL

Luftmensch said:


> Sure,
> 
> Down Under that means a full course of approved vaccines (one does J&J or two doses of AZ, Pfizer etc). Boosters remain optional for now... Part of that is likely due to the fact that we had such a slow roll out of vaccines last year (stroll-out). Because a large cohort accessed vaccinations late, our middle aged and younger population will only eligible for boosters this month or next. The boosters are here and people are willing, it is just a matter of waiting four months.
> 
> The vaccination data is being recorded by our Government. The public healthcare scheme (Medicare) has all of this information. In theory we should be able to retrospectively analyse the effect various vaccination outcomes (number of doses, timing, prior health conditions). In practice the data is probably difficult to access and match due to privacy concerns and the glorious navigability of various IT systems cobbled together using 1990's technology that was patched ad infinitum.
> 
> The EU have taken an interesting and smart route. Again, certificates are issued for a full course of approved vaccines (one or two dose schedules). As I understand it, the interesting addition is that the vaccine certificates expire after 9 months after your last shot. I believe you need boosters to renew the certificate? Interestingly I dont think they have determined an expiry period for the booster shots but are reserving the right to do so.



from the outside it may seem that the EU is making smart moves, yet the execution differs vastly per country. In my country we probably are using the same IT vendors as the Aus Govt...
Getting vaccinated/boostered officially requires receiving an invitation which I received yesterday where I made the appointment for the booster 3 weeks ago...online, after 6 attempts (completing 6 pages of questions every time) only managing to get through several days after it was announced my age cohort now is eligible, I was finally able to find a vaccination slot in the town I live in and not some 30 km away. Anyway, I got the booster and I'm fine, but I'm sure the approach Belgium and the UK are taking, jabs first paperwork later is a smarter route to the ultimate objective...a 'digitally challenged' person likely is unable to cut through the hurdles, and will need to wait until the paper invitation arrives and has to cope with the phone system to book an appointment, that phone system is almost always in overload and the underlying IT infra structure is the same..Alternative is to wait until the vaccination location switches to get jabbed without appointment, I reckon there are plenty frail/olderly that will wait for that which likely is not in the interest of their health.

The son of my best friend has a student side job working as a phone operator for that appt system, and he let us know that he gets 3 calls a day at most (but gets paid a full day, so some good comes out of it) even on days when the system is out of whack due to overload, so the issue is not staffing but the IT underneath.

Still with the ridiculously late decision to do anything and the very late start due to our national need to overcomplicate things we're now sprinting to finish before Omikron does, an exciting match we should not need to be in.


----------



## knifeknight

EricEricEric said:


> Every day more interesting data is released
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in community-dwelling populations with emphasis on the elderly: An overview
> 
> 
> Objective This mixed design synthesis aimed to estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in community-dwelling elderly populations and other age groups from seroprevalence studies. Protocol: <https://osf.io/47cgb>. Methods and analyses Eligible were...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.medrxiv.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 160248
> 
> View attachment 160249


....and more....

Denmark...majority of Omikron cases has completed their vaccination scheme...





Source: https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-31122021-ct18


----------



## MarcelNL

I fail to see the point you're trying to make/imply? 

Surely it is not new that when vaccinated and not boostered (newly invented word for re-vaccinated) the likelihood of getting Covid and especially Omikron is high by now and even when boostered Omikron can still hit you but that is far less likely than without the booster.


----------



## riba

EricEricEric said:


> Every day more interesting data is released
> 
> View attachment 160249


Interesting indeed.

The rest of the report is not interesting though?

For instance table 3 and 4 from the same report. The report also provides some context and considerations.

and "_Results:
The rate of a positive COVID-19 test varies by age and vaccination status. The rate of a positive COVID-19 test is substantially lower in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated individuals up to the age of 29. In individuals aged greater than 30, the rate of a positive COVID-19 test is higher in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated. This is likely to be due to a variety of reasons, including differences in the population of vaccinated and unvaccinated people as well as differences in testing patterns.
The rate of hospitalisation within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test increases with age, and is substantially greater in unvaccinated individuals compared to vaccinated individuals.
The rate of death within 28 days or within 60 days of a positive COVID-19 test increases with age, and again is substantially greater in unvaccinated individuals compared to fully vaccinated individuals. _"


----------



## chefwp

TikTok - Make Your Day


TikTok - trends start here. On a device or on the web, viewers can watch and discover millions of personalized short videos. Download the app to get started.




vm.tiktok.com


----------



## ian

EricEricEric said:


> Every day more interesting data is released
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in community-dwelling populations with emphasis on the elderly: An overview
> 
> 
> Objective This mixed design synthesis aimed to estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in community-dwelling elderly populations and other age groups from seroprevalence studies. Protocol: <https://osf.io/47cgb>. Methods and analyses Eligible were...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.medrxiv.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 160248
> 
> View attachment 160249



Can we please stop taking single tables out of context and pretending like they're earth shattering revelations? The report containing that table is basically all about how vaccines are effective at preventing hospitalizations and death. Here's the summary of the results of the paper... note the last sentence of the first paragraph.






Edit: Ah, I saw @riba posted the same thing during the lengthy amount of time I was writing this.




knifeknight said:


> ....and more....
> 
> Denmark...majority of Omikron cases has completed their vaccination scheme...
> 
> View attachment 160304
> 
> Source: https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-31122021-ct18



This is similar. It's true that during the time period in which these statistics were collected, the % of unvaccinated people was in the high teens, so they're underrepresented among Omicron cases above. But this could just as well be because unvaccinated people are less likely to get tested. People who actually know about these things aren't saying (to my knowledge) that having the vaccine increases your chance of infection, it's just politicians and certain reporters who look at isolated bits of data without any context and try to draw naive conclusions. If you can actually point to a reputable study or research article that explicitly supports these conclusions, I'll pay attention.


----------



## knifeknight

I'm wondering who is naive....

First they said the vaccination would confer immunity and prevent covid from being transmitted.
Then it was "vaccination prevents you from getting seriously ill" and reduces the probability to die of covid.
Now it seems your chance of catching covid is higher if you are fully vaccinated.

Furthermore Omikron seems to be much less severe than the previous variants and the vaccination efficacy is nearly nil.

So why should someone get vaccinated ?

I *am* fully vaccinated and got my booster shot as well. The results were: tinnitus, severe permanent nausea, thrombosis in the left leg and a pulmonary embolism. I nearly died. My chance to catching covid is the same (or worse) now as it was beeing unvaccinated. I'm really wondering, if I have done the right thing.

You know what is meant by a "pink elephant" ?

And now: beer and potatoe chips and let the shitstorm brew over me


----------



## MarcelNL

I'm sorry for your experience after the vaccination and I understand you wonder about the risk benefit ratio of YOUR situation!

Though aside from that you are aware that nobody ever made statements about vaccine efficacy with regards to contracting future variants (unknown at the time of creating the vaccine)? By now we know that vaccines do not guarantee getting Covid but they do protect against severe effects quite effectively.


----------



## ian

knifeknight said:


> Now it seems your chance of catching covid is higher if you are fully vaccinated.



For this to be convincing, I'd need to see some experts that have written a study saying this, not just a data table that can be interpreted to say this if you ignore possible outside factors.



knifeknight said:


> Furthermore Omikron seems to be much less severe than the previous variants and the vaccination efficacy is nearly nil.



They lower your chance of getting hospitalized/dead significantly.



knifeknight said:


> The results were: tinnitus, severe permanent nausea, thrombosis in the left leg and a pulmonary embolism. I nearly died.



I'm very sorry to hear that. That's terrible. I would totally be wary of vaccines if I'd had that happen to me soon after.


----------



## knifeknight

ian said:


> They lower your chance of getting hospitalized/dead significantly.


The used vaccins are still tailored for the Wuhan-Variant. Your argument may be right for Alpha and Delta variants, but it's not for Omikron (take a look at Israel). 

It's senseless. Omikron get's prevalent and the infection rates (better: positive test rates) are surging, but the vaccines are much less effective against Omikron. So what's the solution: let's vaccinate much more....third shot, fourth...and so on. Sorry, but that's crazy....


----------



## tcmx3

knifeknight said:


> Now it seems your chance of catching covid is higher if you are fully vaccinated.


----------



## KingShapton

knifeknight said:


> The used vaccins are still tailored for the Wuhan-Variant. Your argument may be right for Alpha and Delta variants, but it's not for Omikron (take a look at Israel).
> 
> It's senseless. Omikron get's prevalent and the infection rates (better: positive test rates) are surging, but the vaccines are much less effective against Omikron. So what's the solution: let's vaccinate much more....third shot, fourth...and so on. Sorry, but that's crazy....


It is crazy to forego a chance against a severe course of Covid or to accept hospitalization due to Covid.

The vaccines available are not perfect and, especially with Omikron, they are not helping as well as expected. Still, they help and it's better than nothing.

Your serious side effects from the vaccination are bad and I do not wish that to anyone! The fact remains that with every vaccination there is a (very small) residual risk of serious side effects. But the fact remains that with vaccinations you have a better chance of avoiding an infection with Covid, or that you have a better chance of surviving an infection with Covid undamaged.

As for the frequency of vaccinations, you think it's crazy that they are thinking about a fourth vaccination ?!

I think it's crazy that the hospitals in Germany are full of Covid patients, most of whom are not vaccinated! And I learned that from the staff at a hospital in Germany, not from a dubious internet source.

I am 50 years old and my health is in poor health. From my point of view, vaccinations are currently the best protection we have. Not perfect, but something! And if it were necessary to protect myself, my wife, my family and my friends, I would also get a vaccination every month. As long as it is necessary!


----------



## ian

tcmx3 said:


> View attachment 160324



Is this supposed to be about the fact that there are a lot more people that are vaccinated than unvaccinated? This isn't relevant to the arguments they are making. Interpreted without thinking about other factors like how likely vaxed vs unvaxed people are to get tested etc..., the data they cite _does_ indicate that being vaccinated raises your chance of getting covid. It just doesn't make sense to interpret it that way imo.


----------



## MarcelNL

Work is ongoing to create a vaccin more geared to Omikron, after a while this will not be much different from the flu vaccination where a prediction is made every year...at least that is the current hope!

Until then, Vaccines are our best protection just see the HUGE difference in hospitalization rates and severity/deaths between vaxxed and non vaxxed even with Omikron, nobody can yet make any prediction about vaccine efficacy for variants beyond those we know now and we're only starting to learn to know Omikron.


----------



## tcmx3

ian said:


> Is this supposed to be about the fact that there are a lot more people that are vaccinated than unvaccinated? This isn't relevant to the arguments they are making. Interpreted without thinking about other factors like how likely vaxed vs unvaxed people are to get tested etc..., the data they cite _does_ indicate that being vaccinated raises your chance of getting covid. It just doesn't make sense to interpret it that way imo.



huh?

there's no way to calculate from the table he posted what the actual rates are. Im looking through the pdf they dont provide that either. it's just counts.

how does the data in anyway indicate you are more LIKELY to get covid if you are vaccinated? it merely says that more vaccinated people are getting covid as far as I can tell. help me understand what Im missing here


----------



## ian

knifeknight said:


> (take a look at Israel).



Do you have some stats in mind? I'm not very informed about what's happening there at the moment. I did a brief google search, but all I got were things like this:









As Omicron sweeps through Israel, vaccination still effective, expert


With Omicron cases surging, Ben Gurion University immunologist Tomer Hertz says getting vaccinated or getting a booster is crucial.




www.jpost.com


----------



## ian

tcmx3 said:


> huh?
> 
> there's no way to calculate from the table he posted what the actual rates are. Im looking through the pdf they dont provide that either. it's just counts.
> 
> how does the data in anyway indicate you are more LIKELY to get covid if you are vaccinated? it merely says that more vaccinated people are getting covid as far as I can tell. help me understand what Im missing here



I'm not claiming some kind of sophisticated analysis. Just saying that if you only look at Omicron cases, the table says that 8.5% of them come from unvaxed people. However, the percentage of the population that was unvaxed was more like 18% during the period of the study. So, the table says that unvaxed people are under-represented among verified covid infections. That make sense, or am I confused?


----------



## tcmx3

ian said:


> I'm not claiming some kind of sophisticated analysis. Just saying that if you only look at Omicron cases, the table says that 8.5% of them come from unvaxed people. However, the percentage of the population that was unvaxed was more like 18% during the period of the study. So, the table says that unvaxed people are under-represented among verified covid infections. That make sense, or am I confused?



I mean sure you can say "vaccinated people seem overrepresented in the omicron cases" but this is a universe away from "Now it seems your chance of catching covid is higher if you are fully vaccinated"

that's just not how that works.

firstly, the two groups are hard to compare that directly because there is massive self selection bias wrt vaccines that would include health, behavior, age, location, etc. secondly, again we need to know the likelihood of getting covid in the area in general and then we can calculate it.

irrespective of how the math actually works out, you have to actually calculate it to say. even if you smooth over some of the subtlties which is ok whatever but this is just a fundamental misunderstanding of how to think about occurences that Im trying to point out here. that's been a big sticking point for me all along is people just want to say stuff and they dont even qualify it. they just act like "oh my observation must generalize".


----------



## ian

tcmx3 said:


> I mean sure you can say "vaccinated people seem overrepresented in the omicron cases" but this is a universe away from "Now it seems your chance of catching covid is higher if you are fully vaccinated"
> 
> that's just not how that works.
> 
> firstly, the two groups are hard to compare that directly because there is massive self selection bias wrt vaccines that would include health, behavior, age, location, etc. secondly, again we need to know the likelihood of getting covid in the area in general and then we can calculate it.
> 
> irrespective of how the math actually works out, you have to actually calculate it to say. even if you smooth over some of the subtlties which is ok whatever but this is just a fundamental misunderstanding of how to think about occurences that Im trying to point out here. that's been a big sticking point for me all along is people just want to say stuff and they dont even qualify it. they just act like "oh my observation must generalize".



Absolutely, I was just saying that the problem is not that they’re making an elementary mistake with their probabilities, it’s that they’re not looking at the whole picture.


----------



## tcmx3

ian said:


> Absolutely, I was just saying that the problem is not that they’re making a elementary mistake with their probabilities, it’s that they’re not looking at the whole picture.



but theyre kind of the same thing. a spurious conclusion based on looking at too little.

the point of posting bayes' theorem is not to say "hey here is how you actually calculate this", it's to point out that these likelihoods are conditional and you have to think about more rates than just "the percentage of cases in a period of time that are vaccinated people"

it's the same as if I posted to the picture of the airplane with the bullet markers to make a point about survivorship bias.


----------



## jankdc

MarcelNL said:


> she was warning me that over 80% of folks who got a booster were getting Covid and that natural immunity is so much better


I know people that got Covid, didn't get vaccinated, and then got Omicron.


----------



## MarcelNL

jankdc said:


> I know people that got Covid, didn't get vaccinated, and then got Omicron.



For sure, the issue is that going through a case of Covid and getting a positive PCR does not say anything about the level of immune response for a next case.


----------



## ian

tcmx3 said:


> but theyre kind of the same thing. a spurious conclusion based on looking at too little.
> 
> the point of posting bayes' theorem is not to say "hey here is how you actually calculate this", it's to point out that these likelihoods are conditional and you have to think about more rates than just "the percentage of cases in a period of time that are vaccinated people"
> 
> it's the same as if I posted to the picture of the airplane with the bullet markers to make a point about survivorship bias.



Fair enough. I interpreted it as referring to the case A = vaxed, B = infected, since that's the case directly related to the table. In general, I find posting math or latin is a less effective way to communicate with people if you can do it just as well in English. Fewer people will understand what you mean, and it has the air of "I know these fancy words and symbols, so your arguments are dumb," even if that's not the intent. 

My cats are fighting on the floor next to me. Makes me want to fight too! Fighting is fun! Rrrrow 

Heh, anyway, I think we agree on basically everything here.


----------



## MarcelNL

Now my kittens are fighting too....I just clicked the tube amp on to warm up but I probably have to kick them out of my speaker a few dozen times


----------



## tcmx3

ian said:


> Fair enough. I interpreted it as referring to the case A = vaxed, B = infected, since that's the case directly related to the table. In general, I find posting math or latin is a less effective way to communicate with people if you can do it just as well in English. Fewer people will understand what you mean, and it has the air of "I know these fancy words and symbols, so your arguments are dumb," even if that's not the intent.
> 
> My cats are fighting on the floor next to me. Makes me want to fight too! Fighting is fun! Rrrrow
> 
> Heh, anyway, I think we agree on basically everything here.



oof, kinda just assume people are exposed to bayes' theorem in high school. I say that because not only was I but the kiddo I just put through hs had it and she was on normal track math.

and despite how one particularly irate person interprets where Im coming from, I actually dont assume anyone is stupid. what I do think is true though is the KKF demographic HEAVILY overlaps with people who havent been told 'no' very much in their lives. Ive said it before and I really believe this if I went into BoH and started telling people **** left and right even though I am not an expert on how restaurants runs they'd probably respond in the same way I do re statistics.

perhaps even more surprisingly, I dont view working in a quantitative field as being evidence that someone is "smart" anyway.


----------



## ian

tcmx3 said:


> oof, kinda just assume people are exposed to bayes' theorem in high school. I say that because not only was I but the kiddo I just put through hs had it and she was on normal track math.



I wonder if it's standard material nowadays. I'm not sure I was ever taught that in high school, but who knows. I can barely remember high school.  In any case, I think it's more that if you ask a random person on the street what P(A|B) means they won't remember, even if they were taught it at some point.

Heh, I just asked my wife what she makes of the pic you posted. She says: "There are lots of P's and A's and B's! There's a fraction on the right. On the left, I know you're supposed to do the stuff in the parentheses before you multiply by P, but I don't know what | means."

Full disclosure: she was a poetry PhD, now a therapist. So not many formal calculations of probabilities in her life.


----------



## Nemo

tcmx3 said:


> oof, kinda just assume people are exposed to bayes' theorem in high school. I say that because not only was I but the kiddo I just put through hs had it and she was on normal track math.
> 
> and despite how one particularly irate person interprets where Im coming from, I actually dont assume anyone is stupid. what I do think is true though is the KKF demographic HEAVILY overlaps with people who havent been told 'no' very much in their lives. Ive said it before and I really believe this if I went into BoH and started telling people **** left and right even though I am not an expert on how restaurants runs they'd probably respond in the same way I do re statistics.
> 
> perhaps even more surprisingly, I dont view working in a quantitative field as being evidence that someone is "smart" anyway.


My experience is that most people forget how to use the parts of high school maths that they don't use on a regular basis. This includes many people that I know are smart people.

IME, much of calculus, algebra and probability falls in to this category.


----------



## Nemo

Nemo said:


> My experience is that most people forget how to use the parts of high school maths that they don't use on a regular basis. This includes many people that I know are smart people.
> 
> IME, much of calculus, algebra and probability falls in to this category.


Expanding specifically on the understanding of probability,

Peoples' ability to understand risk and to compare risks is in general very limited.

People will tolerate a familiar risk (e.g.: driving a car) without anxiety to a much much much greater extent than an unfamiliar risk (e.g.: undergoing a routine general anaesthetic).


----------



## Luftmensch

tcmx3 said:


>


----------



## Luftmensch

tcmx3 said:


> oof, kinda just assume people are exposed to bayes' theorem in high school.





ian said:


> I wonder if it's standard material nowadays. I'm not sure I was ever taught that in high school, but who knows. I can barely remember high school.



Twenty/thirty years ago Australia had really good rankings in global mathematics comparisons. We have fallen a fair bit since. Now kids leave school barely understanding that the number eight is "that squiggly thing that looks like a snowman"...

When I graduated from school. Bayes was definitely not part of the state curriculum. We did basic stats but that was mostly frequentist stuff, product rule chaining and basic stats tests.




ian said:


> Heh, I just asked my wife what she makes of the pic you posted. She says: "There are lots of P's and A's and B's! There's a fraction on the right. On the left, I know you're supposed to do the stuff in the parentheses before you multiply by P, but I don't know what | means."



I guess she hasnt been properly conditioned! 



ian said:


> Full disclosure: she was a poetry PhD, now a therapist. So not many formal calculations of probabilities in her life.



Eh... In her profession, its application is marginal. 



Fun (stupid) fact... did you know you do not need to do _any_ mathematics to graduate from year 12 in Australia? 
It really irritates me that basic mathematics validation is not part of a high-school graduate certificate. There is a movement to change this. I dont think it has happened yet. For a long while, english has been the only mandatory subject. Students can fill the rest of their units with whatever they choose.


----------



## Luftmensch

knifeknight said:


> I *am* fully vaccinated and got my booster shot as well. The results were: tinnitus, severe permanent nausea, thrombosis in the left leg and a pulmonary embolism. I nearly died. My chance to catching covid is the same (or worse) now as it was beeing unvaccinated. I'm really wondering, if I have done the right thing.



It is terrible you had adverse side effects from the vaccines. I too am sorry you had to go through that. 

Either you have a predisposition to trusting medical technology or you do not. I am not sure we can convince you one way or another? If you are open to medicine being a thorough and valid process, then consider that the vaccine is a control exposure to the virus. If that does not make you uncomfortable... then consider what might have happened if you received a large, uncontrolled dose of the virus? Again; I am sorry for the illness the vaccines caused you... but perhaps that is evidence you would have a bad (worse) reaction to covid.

It might not feel like an 'emotional truth'... but you are not in a worse position having had the vaccines. You are in a better position. It was worth your trouble and you absolutely have done the right thing. I hope that by looking at mainstream analysis, you do gain confidence and comfort that your decision was justified.





knifeknight said:


> And now: beer and potatoe chips and let the shitstorm brew over me



That is up to you. 

There are a lot of well meaning people here who will have a generally level headed conversation if you approach the topic with civility. True; the large majority of people here appear to be advocates for medical science and accept the evidence that lockdowns, social distancing, masks and vaccines help combat the pandemic. I suppose that can be confronting if you have an opposing view.


You sound like you are in a grey zone where your personal experience has tainted your view of our medicine. I have a lot of sympathy for that position. If you can state your insecurities about why you should trust it, I am sure members can try and help give you confidence that you did make the _right_ decision!!


----------



## ian

Luftmensch said:


> I guess she hasnt been properly conditioned!
> 
> Eh... In her profession, its application is marginal.



Omg you are on a roll today. That sentence about geodesics and unit balls and conformal mappings was amazing. Like one of those joke papers written by an AI, but with real human feeling. ❤


----------



## daveb

Luftmensch said:


> True; the large majority of people here appear to be advocates for medical science and accept the evidence that lockdowns, social distancing, masks and vaccines help combat the pandemic. I suppose that can be confronting if you have an opposing view.



I've given up on correcting them but do like to pop up frequently enough to remind them there are other views. Just cause Fauci is wrong more often than the weatherman, he's repeatedly lied to our congress and has gotten rich in the process of espousing fake science should not be reason to distrust him they tell me.


----------



## EricEricEric

First some good news followed by some rather disturbing news, hoping the bad news is incorrect


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> Just cause Fauci is wrong more often than the weatherman, he's repeatedly lied to our congress and has gotten rich in the process of espousing fake science



do you have a source for that.


----------



## daveb

Direct observation. Primary research.


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> Direct observation. Primary research.



so no?

I mean I will grant he's a public figure and doesnt participate here but you're making a serious allegation there incredibly casually.

is that the official KKF perspective on Anthony Fauci as well?


----------



## daveb

That little button in the middle of your mouse? It's waiting.


----------



## MarcelNL

It sounds like you just have an opinion, and of those there are plenty to go around, which is fine and all that but it does not make it true what you say.
Simply saying that something is 'fake' science is just too easy, and to me sounds like "I do not want to hear it'


----------



## Luftmensch

ian said:


> Like one of those joke papers written by an AI, but with real human feeling. ❤



My latest patch (df0cc57e057f18e44dac8e6c18aba47ab53202f8) allows me to simulate empathy


----------



## EricEricEric

“Data published by the NSW government’s COVID-19 Critical Intelligence Unit has revealed that as of Jan. 9, 68.9 percent of COVID-19 patients aged 12 and over in hospitals had two doses of the vaccine, with 28.8 percent unvaccinated.

The number of double-dose vaccinated patients in intensive care units (ICUs) also surpassed those of the unvaccinated, with 50.3 percent of the vaccinated presenting to ICU with COVID-19, more than the 49.1 percent who are unvaccinated.“






__





COVID-19 Monitor


Weekly risk assessment dashboard focused on COVID-19 in public health facilities of NSW.




aci.health.nsw.gov.au


----------



## EricEricEric

This is really getting out of hand


----------



## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> “Data published by the NSW government’s COVID-19 Critical Intelligence Unit has revealed that as of Jan. 9, 68.9 percent of COVID-19 patients aged 12 and over in hospitals had two doses of the vaccine, with 28.8 percent unvaccinated.


Yes. That should not come as a surprise, seeing that there are more than ten times the number of vaccinated people than unvaccinated ones. That's 588 unvaccinated people vs 1400 vaccinated ones in hospitals. Meaning that the < 10% of vaccinated people take up 42 % of the beds.

One has to actually understand what these numbers mean and think about them, though. Which may be a challenge for some people.

Here is a graph that shows what this really means:


Vaccinated people take 14% of ICU beds. Unvaccinated people take 86% of ICU beds, despite there being 9 vaccinated persons for each unvaccinated one. That means an unvaccinated person is about 77 times more likely to end up in ICU than a vaccinated person.

Those beds are not available for people who have some life-threatening condition that isn't related to Covid. But, of course, unvaccinated people are totally entitled to take up about 70 times more ICU beds than necessary.


----------



## MarcelNL

[Cynical mode on] It HAS to be true, I have had an epiphany last night....My GF and I got the booster last week and now, suddenly our youngest son became sick and tested positive....the booster must have rubbed off on him. [Cynical mode off]

Our infection numbers are also on their way to a high orbit, hospitalizations keep going down for now (likely an after effect from the delta wave).
The good news is that our lockdown was eased yesterday, Universities, all shops and sport facilities re-open today, but restaurants, bars, theaters, museums etc stay closed for now.
Most surprising to me was that quarantine rules were lifted for those boostered at least a week ago (now THAT comes in quite handy for us), also in order to keep society functioning but also due to a different course of this variant.


----------



## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> This is really getting out of hand


What exactly is it that is getting out of hand?

That DrLoeser and Incogito1117 are well-known vaccine deniers and right-wing conspiracy theorists?


----------



## Michi

MarcelNL said:


> Our infection numbers are also on their way to a high orbit, hospitalizations keep going down for now (likely an after effect from the delta wave).
> The good news is that our lockdown was eased yesterday,


Glad to hear it! Unfortunately, the wave keeps on rolling here for the time being. We have been posting >100,000 infections per day for quite a while now. In terms of per-capita infections, we must be pretty close to being world-record holders now 

Fortunately, hospitalisations and fatalities are still low, except for the < 10% of unvaccinated people who take up 90% of Covid ICU beds. It's their right, remember?


----------



## MarcelNL

The unverified stuff on twitter is probably getting out of hand...


----------



## Nemo

Michi said:


> Meaning that the < 10% of vaccinated people take up 42 % of the beds.
> 
> Vaccinated people take 14% of ICU beds. Unvaccinated people take 86% of ICU beds, despite there being 9 vaccinated persons for each unvaccinated one. That means an unvaccinated person is about 77 times more likely to end up in ICU than a vaccinated person.



NSW double vaccination rates in 16+ are actually over 95%. I can't find hospitalisation data stratified by age but I'd be pretty surprised if 12-15s (who are at 82% double vaccinated) made up a very large portion of those in ICU or even of those in hospital. So it's probably more like 5% of people taking up those beds.


----------



## Michi

Pressure on hospitals has led to cancellation of most elective surgery here because too many beds are taken by Covid cases. "Elective" surgery can mean a lot of things, but is not particularly elective for some people.

I know of one woman whose double mastectomy was postponed. She chose to have the procedure performed because there is a big family history of breast cancer. It's just too bad that she developed breast cancer while she was waiting for a bed that is currently occupied by a (most likely unvaccinated) Covid patient.

It seems that a lot of the "pro choice" people are choosing on someone else's behalf…


----------



## MarcelNL

Even though it's a devilishly difficult decision to make, I support having a discussion in politics about a Quotum for unvaccinated ICU patients to create a more healthy balance. Probably not of any help anytime soon as that discussion is likely to take more than the 3 years(if that) left for this administration.

Elective surgery only means it's no emergency, but wait long enough and many cases become emergent...our healthcare system currently has a backlog of approx 300.000 hours of surgery, I haven't heard any recent predictions how and when they plan to cut through that case load (pun intended).


----------



## Michi

Steven Colbert presents some great suggestions for how to deal with the situation.


----------



## EricEricEric

The vaccinations are not working if they don’t make you immune to the disease it’s supposed to be keeping you safe from 

High majority of deaths are the vaccinated


----------



## EricEricEric

Also, just saw this. 


“ The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is considering a change to its mask guidance as the omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus continues to circulate across the country, The Washington Post is reporting. 

The CDC will probably advise people to use the N95 or KN85 mask instead of a cloth mask, the Post reported. The N95 masks are the type used by health care personnel. 

“The agency is currently actively looking to update its recommendations for KN95 and N95 in light of omicron,” according to an unnamed official the Post identified as a source close to the negotiations. “We know these masks provide better filtration.” 

While many people use a cloth mask to cover their nose and mouth when they are indoors, the CDC guidance is expected to say that if people can tolerate wearing a KN95 or N95 mask all day, they should. 

The CDC’s current guidance says a mask should fit snugly, be made of at least two layers of breathable fabric and have a wire bridge around the nose that helps the wearer make a more snug fit.”


----------



## chefwp

EricEricEric said:


> The vaccinations are not working if they don’t make you immune to the disease it’s supposed to be keeping you safe from
> 
> High majority of deaths are the vaccinated


I'm calling bullsiht on the chart you posted, but *here are the actual UK numbers from the UK's Office of Statisics*, summarized on the chart below:

*


*

There has been some confusion about some of the statistics coming out of the UK and they have been misinterpreted and that misinformation propagated via social media, this is *further explained here*


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Virus are tiny you need powerful microscopes to see them. Their ability to mutate around our defenses can be a small change in one protein. 
Covid is just one type of virus.

Aids is a virus a deadly one that reprograms bodies defense system changing T-cell from a protector to a attacker. Without powerful cocktails of drugs it's a death sentence. 

Laughter + S = Slaughter


----------



## MarcelNL

Even Aids is now almost tamed, it took a while though...so far a few patients have been cured of it.

Let's hope we get a grip on Covid anytime soon....


----------



## Keith Sinclair

In Africa Aids still takes its toll can't afford expensive drugs. A very small % of people seem to be somewhat immune to the virus like Magic Johnson. Scientist don't know why yet still trying to figure it out according to infective microbes class I'm watching it was made before COVID-19. It certainly has made me more aware that how microbes have decimated mankind from the beginning. It's nothing new. 
Also how complex the biology is with these invaders that have been around millions of years. True survivers combining their genetic code with ours. Reprogramming & rapid replication.


----------



## chefwp

The US has a holiday today honoring Martin Luther King Jr. His words apply to so many facets of life on this planet, perhaps even discussions about Covid-19 and our response to it.


----------



## Barmoley

Looks like early data out of Israel is that 4th booster shot of Pfizer doesn’t provide much infection protection against omicron. Good news is that all infected had very low or no symptoms. It is all over the place, but saw it first here Fourth Pfizer Dose Is Insufficient to Ward Off Omicron, Israeli Trial Suggests


----------



## Matus

Neither the vaccine, nor previous infection by other variants provide much in a way of avoiding the infection. But the T-cells gained by either method are doing well in recognizing and finishing off the infected cells. Plus this variant infects mainly the upper respiratory system, so heavy pneumonia is unlikely.

Me and my wife are vaccinated, but I assume that it is just a matter of time before the omicron will find the way (most likely via kids).

Our good friends (both vaccinated) had omicron recently (felt like they had a cold for a few days) - interestingly, their kids (both under 10) did not get infected.

I am really hoping that the omicron wave will do its job right and will produce enough immunity that it will exterminate the delta. There is a good chance since omicron infection creates antibodies that also recognize delta and thus makes it much harder to spread.


----------



## MarcelNL

It is early days, the numbers are low and


*Two weeks after the start of the trial of 154 medical personnel at the Sheba Medical Center in Tel Aviv, researchers found the vaccine successfully raised antibody levels*_. 

But that only offered a *partial defense* against omicron, according to Gili Regev-Yochay, the trial’s lead researcher. Vaccines which were more effective against previous variants offer less protection with omicron, she said. Still, those infected in the trial had *only slight symptoms or none at all.* _


I'd like to see hospitalization risk, which is impossible in this study given the extremely small n...

on that note; n=1 but both me and my GF did not contract Omikron from our 5 year old (both got our 1st booster a little over a week ago)


----------



## Barmoley

MarcelNL said:


> It is early days, the numbers are low and
> 
> 
> *Two weeks after the start of the trial of 154 medical personnel at the Sheba Medical Center in Tel Aviv, researchers found the vaccine successfully raised antibody levels*_.
> 
> But that only offered a *partial defense* against omicron, according to Gili Regev-Yochay, the trial’s lead researcher. Vaccines which were more effective against previous variants offer less protection with omicron, she said. Still, those infected in the trial had *only slight symptoms or none at all.* _
> 
> 
> I'd like to see hospitalization risk, which is impossible in this study given the extremely small n...
> 
> on that note; n=1 but both me and my GF did not contract Omikron from our 5 year old (both got our 1st booster a little over a week ago)


Very true. It is early and low numbers. They still suggest that vulnerable should get the 4th shot, but are not suggesting wider rollout so far.

I am vaccinated, but not boosted. Had covid in February. I didn’t get sick when my wife and kids had covid 3 weeks ago, I assume omicron. I didn’t stay away from them at all. I have a “cold” now, so far negative, but we’ve seen this before when it takes a while for tests to show positive results. Personal experiences unfortunately don’t prove a whole lot.


----------



## MarcelNL

Barmoley said:


> Personal experiences unfortunately don’t prove a whole lot.


very true! 
It's great that Israel was gutsy enough to rollout the vaccinations so fast that they are now ahead of the game (and basically serve as our 'guinea pig') and continue to try to stay on top by studying a LOT!


----------



## Ericfg

I tested positive Saturday. Covid's running wild at my work; lots of staff and residents have it. I got both jabs and the booster. Symptoms include NO fever/temperature, stuffed up head and feeling crummy. Other than that I'm fine; I can taste and smell and eat, no problem. I'm assuming right now I have a 5 day wait before I can return to work but haven't spoken to them due to extended weekend.


----------



## tcmx3

Ericfg said:


> I tested positive Saturday. Covid's running wild at my work; lots of staff and residents have it. I got both jabs and the booster. Symptoms include NO fever/temperature, stuffed up head and feeling crummy. Other than that I'm fine; I can taste and smell and eat, no problem. I'm assuming right now I have a 5 day wait before I can return to work but haven't spoken to them due to extended weekend.



hope you feel better.

just got my third jab after getting my appointment cancelled on short notice and having to reschedule.

I think with the decisions that have been made and some of the realities of Omicron, we're going to have a real discussion in a few years as a country about what we're gonna do if we have a couple hundred thousand people, if not a few million, with long covid. really hope we dont do those people as dirty as we did the Vietnam vets, or continue to do people with mental disabilities today, or those impacted by the pandemic we had before covid (opioids).

we've already gone from "no one should be bankrupted if they get covid" to "guess everyone is going to get it so people can go back to work".


----------



## chefwp

My daughters do pool testing at school, on Tuesday we take them in a bit early, they are divided into groups of five and all given a nasal swab, then each groups' boogers are combined for a single test. If the group fails, the five are called back for individual tests. My youngest was called back on Thursday and tested positive. She's been quarantined up in her room, sniffles being her major symptom besides severe boredom. The boredom is probably not the virus's doing... Knock on my wooden head, but the other three of us have not been symptomatic at all. We are all going to do a PCR test tomorrow, I'm hoping all 4 test negative.

Back when they introduced the pool testing it sounded very practical and a great way to control costs and logistics. Now I am not so sure. My daughter was at school infected all day Tues and Wed. I guess she would have been anyway if it took two days to get results, so maybe the pooling is a good idea.

I suspected I had it around Christmas, but our home rapid test was negative, not that this means much, they are purportedly not great indicators of the new variant. My only symptoms were stuffiness, an icky feeling throat, and fatigue, but it could have just been the common cold or something else. We are all vaccinated, only my youngest has not been boosted, but she just got her second dose in mid-Dec.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

My buddy retired like me caught Omicron at big family gathering Thanksgiving before it took off in Hawaii. He just stayed at home & was under weather about 4 days & got better I saw him a week later when the strain was beginning to pick up steam. He said his taste & smell still reduced. Saw him last week said it was better but not back to normal. 

For senior citizens don't think it's a good idea to try & catch Omicron to aid natural herd immunity. My eyes & hearing not as good as used to be, but smell, taste good shape love cooking with fresh herbs from garden don't need to dump a lot of salt & sugar in my dishes 
to taste good. Not worth the gamble even if reading loss of taste & smell not like first strain and Delta.


----------



## Barmoley

Definitely not a good idea to try and catch it on purpose or any other disease for that matter. Especially if older.

I am dealing with the opposite of it with my older kid. She had it in February, then got 2 shots of Pfizer, then had it 3 weeks ago and now wants to go get a booster. It is almost impossible to convince her not to, but since she just had omicron why get a booster that won’t do anything for her at this point? Once they develop a more targeted booster then I understand, but getting another vaccine right after recovering just seems crazy to me. At least wait a couple of month to extend the effect


----------



## MarcelNL

@Keith Sinclair Isn't Thanksgiving quite early for Omikron in the US? Also, taste and smell issues are not typical of Omikron but for Delta(+)

Our 5 year old had some serious fever for about a day, 39.6'C, so even without the pulmonary issues leading to low oxygen saturation etc Omikron does not appear to be a walk-over for anyone with a compromised immune system.
Morbidity appears to be lower but mortality is lower but not nil.









WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard


World Health Organization Coronavirus disease situation dashboard presents official daily counts of COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide, along with vaccination rates and other vaccination data, while providing a hub to other resources. Interactive tools, including maps, epidemic curves and other...




covid19.who.int





@Barmoley there ought to be data supporting this; Booster vaccination


----------



## Barmoley

MarcelNL said:


> @Keith Sinclair Isn't Thanksgiving quite early for Omikron in the US? Also, taste and smell issues are not typical of Omikron but for Delta(+)
> 
> Our 5 year old had some serious fever for about a day, 39.6'C, so even without the pulmonary issues leading to low oxygen saturation etc Omikron does not appear to be a walk-over for anyone with a compromised immune system.
> Morbidity appears to be lower but mortality is lower but not nil.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard
> 
> 
> World Health Organization Coronavirus disease situation dashboard presents official daily counts of COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide, along with vaccination rates and other vaccination data, while providing a hub to other resources. Interactive tools, including maps, epidemic curves and other...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> covid19.who.int
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> @Barmoley there ought to be data supporting this; Booster vaccination


Yeah, I’ve seen 3 month after recovery and that’s fine even though I question the refreshing of immunity with a generic booster, but I wouldn’t be against it. 3 weeks after recovery is different as that sounds unneeded to me. I’ve said it before that I think vaccines are safe, but still doing a booster just for a sake of a booster makes no sense to me. Kids get so brainwashed by schools and social media that it is very difficult to have a reasonable discussion with them.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Yes must have been Delta he had two vaccine but no booster. All around same time first week December had Omicron picking up quickly. 

We are still at least 2K a day cases it's actually much more than that. To go anywhere must wear a mask. Same thing in eastern countries 
_& Would imagine Australia they just kicked that unvax tennis player out of country. 

Those graphs are interesting countries like China & India have much lower cases than USA even though huge populations. Biden getting flack because covid cases going up. Was watching the Bucs - Eagles playoff game. Froze large fans in the stands shot. At least 100 people packed together not one person wearing a mask. 
Are there no cases in Tampa Bay the hospital rooms empty? _


----------



## MarcelNL

My GF tested positive, today I'm still(?) negative (self test), so Omikron is for sure a potent bugger  

Complaints are very mild, we'll see how things develop...I hamstered some toilet paper and paracetamol for old times sake.


----------



## Nemo

MarcelNL said:


> My GF tested positive, today I'm still(?) negative (self test), so Omikron is for sure a potent bugger
> 
> Complaints are very mild, we'll see how things develop...I hamstered some toilet paper and paracetamol for old times sake.


Hope everything is OK with you and GF.


----------



## Michi

MarcelNL said:


> My GF tested positive, today I'm still(?) negative (self test), so Omikron is for sure a potent bugger


My fingers are crossed for both of you!


----------



## MarcelNL

Thanks! 

I suspect that the vaccinations plus recent booster make it into what we saw with our son, a 2-3 day affair with some fever and that was it...but we'll see! He is playing outside right now, his whole class is in Quarantine as there (of course) were a few too many cases in his class at the same time. Friday he'll be back at school, I think we need to dump him in true drive-by fashion if we both test positive by then


----------



## KingShapton

MarcelNL said:


> My GF tested positive, today I'm still(?) negative (self test), so Omikron is for sure a potent bugger


I very much hope that your girlfriend has a very mild course of the disease and will recover quickly and without complications.

And I hope that you don't get infected in the first place.

Good thing you both got the booster recently, that should influence things in a very positive way!

I also cross my fingers for you and your family!


----------



## MarcelNL

After loads of testing I finally passed the exam today, my GF had very few complaints and so do I ..in fact so few and so mild that in combination with the negative tests I was convinced it was an early pollen flight of Elm and Hazelnut...
Hurray for the booster I'd say as all the people I know that were not vaccinated had far more serious complaints.


----------



## KingShapton

MarcelNL said:


> After loads of testing I finally passed the exam today, my GF had very few complaints and so do I ..in fact so few and so mild that in combination with the negative tests I was convinced it was an early pollen flight of Elm and Hazelnut...
> Hurray for the booster I'd say as all the people I know that were not vaccinated had far more serious complaints.


I'm happy for you both! Nice to hear that the booster is helping (and maybe finger crossing too  ).


----------



## chefwp

Classic Fauci!


----------



## MarcelNL

there is something weird to this Omikron thing, it has the effect that a staircase seems to lengthen while you're climbing it


----------



## KJDedge

I had the vid….mild congestion, but walking up stairs felt like I got off a treadmill….heart erratic since


----------



## KingShapton

MarcelNL said:


> there is something weird to this Omikron thing, it has the effect that a staircase seems to lengthen while you're climbing it


Because you run out of air faster? Or is climbing stairs more strenuous overall because the whole body is weakened?


----------



## MarcelNL

KingShapton said:


> Because you run out of air faster? Or is climbing stairs more strenuous overall because the whole body is weakened?


I don't know, I thought of it but I do not need to compensate by panting or such...perhaps it;s just that all energy is used by those bugs multiplying like heck, the dirty sods, do it somewhere else


----------



## KingShapton

MarcelNL said:


> I don't know, I thought of it but I do not need to compensate by panting or such...perhaps it;s just that all energy is used by those bugs multiplying like heck, the dirty sods, do it somewhere else


Ok, it sounds like your whole body is weakened by this f###### virus.

Be considerate and avoid any avoidable exertion. And take time to rest before your body is further weakened by exertion and the virus can hit you harder


----------



## riba

@MarcelNL, Did you get confirmed it is omikron? Didn't know they do that.

i was taught to take it slow, seriously make sure to not overreach, and make sure you have enough protein intake.


----------



## MarcelNL

Naah, I'm just adding up 1 and 1 to become 3 (as a Dyscalculic I can do that  ) Given the positive test and pattern of symptoms it's a differential diagnosis that is not too far of the mark but it definitely is not carved in stone.

I will definitely take it slow for a couple of days, but it's not as bad as it perhaps may sound...


----------



## riba

MarcelNL said:


> Naah, I'm just adding up 1 and 1 to become 3 (as a Dyscalculic I can do that  ) Given the positive test and pattern of symptoms it's a differential diagnosis that is not too far of the mark but it definitely is not carved in stone.


Ofc, more than 87% chance of being right. Just that it might be informative to the tested person, hence my interest.



MarcelNL said:


> I will definitely take it slow for a couple of days, but it's not as bad as it perhaps may sound...


Ofc, you're on the internet and scaling stairs, no worries 

Take care


----------



## daveb

At work, with vax and boosted co-workers, a positive test has become known as a covication...

And lots of people taking those 5 days and smiling.


----------



## MarcelNL

I plan to work, as usual from home...but a vacation definitely is different, isolating within the house trying to keep two teenagers in school...


----------



## Barmoley

Yeah, for me and some others I know omicron didn't come with any breathing difficulties. The first variant I got in February made breathing much more difficult. I am not boosted just 2 Pfizer doses and previous recovery. Omicron, I assume this is what it was, was very mild. If not for the positive test I wouldn't really treat it any different from common cold. Ofcourse this is on top of vaccines and previous recovery and I still felt sick, but not bad. It came with fatigue, so wouldn't do any stranious exercises, but I wouldn't do that with a cold either. Some people get very sick though even some vaccinated. Have two friends who are older and both ended up with pneumonia after covid, no hospitalization though. Both vaccinated, one boosted, but neither had covid before. It is not know which variant they had, but omicron is very dominant around here.


----------



## sansho

haven't had CoViD yet (to my knowledge), and i still don't really want to get it.

so far i've had:

pfizer 30μg
pfizer 30μg
moderna 100μg

i went for a moderna booster because i wanted to mix and match. also, i took 100μg instead of 50μg because it seemed like the main reasons for the reduced booster dosage were 1) less bad press related to side effects and 2) possibly extending the vaccine supply (lol). in the time since, i've only seen indications that 100μg is at least as good as 50μg, so i don't regret it. i can indeed confirm that the side effects were unpleasant, though. it was noticeably worse than pfizer dose 2.

it's been ~10 weeks since my booster, so i decided it was time for booster #2 as a hail mary.

moderna @ 50μg since that's all that was left in the vial.

before anyone starts crying about ethics, i drew it out of a remnant vial that would have been discarded anyway. pretty much a smoke 'em if you got 'em situation.







i'm not trolling. even so, i hope that this amuses some of you.


----------



## daveb

Me thinks the pickle juice would have been just as effective....


----------



## EricEricEric

As time goes by we certainly obtain a much clearer picture


----------



## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> As time goes by we certainly obtain a much clearer picture


Sure thing. The intro paragraph to the first set of graphs you pasted states:



> Adults who reported never wearing a face covering in enclosed spaces were more likely to test positive for COVID-19 than those who reported always wearing a face covering in the fortnight ending 31 December 2021







__





Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, characteristics of people testing positive for COVID-19, UK - Office for National Statistics


Characteristics of people testing positive for COVID-19 from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey.



www.ons.gov.uk





And your point is?


----------



## MarcelNL

Once more; this is post hoc data, descriptive statistics...and of very limited value because all kinds of temporal, regional (mask mandate or not) behavioral (what mask and how is it used) and med history effects muddy the data.... 

Someone with fragile health is much more prone to wearing a decent mask and using proper mask hygiene than let's say what I see our teenagers do. Someone living in a larger group/family where there are a few kids (kindergarten used to be described as a fast breeding reactor in my microbiology classes) or members who do not follow social distancing principles, never wash hands etc is far more likely to test positive even when they would fastidiously follow all the rules out of intrinsic motivation.

BTW: The conclusions on that website do not even mention masks:





__





Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, characteristics of people testing positive for COVID-19, UK - Office for National Statistics


Characteristics of people testing positive for COVID-19 from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey.



www.ons.gov.uk





_Our latest data for the fortnight ending 31 December 2021 show similar conclusions to our last publication, namely:
_

_those who reported receiving one of any coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines 15 to 90 days ago, a second Pfizer vaccine 15 to 180 days ago, or any three vaccinations (including booster vaccinations) were all less likely to test positive than those who are not vaccinated; however, these effects are smaller than what we have seen previously_
_those who had previously been infected with COVID-19 continued to be less likely to test positive than those who had not, however this effect was smaller than we have seen in the past_
_those who were previously infected during the period when Delta was dominant were even less likely to test positive again than those infected in the Alpha dominant or pre-Alpha period¹_
_females continued to be less likely to test positive than males_
_ethnic minorities continued to be less likely to test positive than people of White ethnicity_
_people aged under 40 years were more likely to test positive than older people_
_in rural villages, those living in larger households were more likely to test positive than those living in smaller households; in more urban areas, there was no relationship between household size and testing positive_
_people who report regularly using lateral flow tests continued to be more likely to test positive compared with those who do not; this is likely related to those at a higher risk of infection being encouraged to take regular lateral flow tests_
_In the same fortnight:
_

_those living in multigenerational households were less likely to test positive than those not living in multigenerational households_
_those with a disability, as well as those who live with someone with a disability, were less likely to test positive than those not living in a household where someone has a disability_
_people who had contact with a hospital, as well as people who live with someone who had contact with a hospital, were less likely to test positive, in comparison with those living in households where no one had contact_
_people living in more-deprived areas were more likely to test positive than those living in less-deprived areas_
_those who work outside of the home were more likely to test positive than those who work from home_
_people working in the hospitality sector were more likely to test positive in comparison with other working adults_


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Almost garrens when your girlfriend tested positive just a matter of time. Don't need to tell you drink lots of water espresso's don't count.  Take care bro.

Had to hammer safety to my two sisters both in 70's to carry gel mask up. It worked was good to see them together great time on Maui & Oahu saw plenty humpback whales. Got them on plane to Virginia this afternoon. 




Haleakala crater winter time was little cold at 10'000 feet.


----------



## KingShapton

Keith Sinclair said:


> Haleakala crater


The picture from Haleakala crater looks absolutely stunning!


----------



## MarcelNL

The recovery from Omikron is swift, we're now waiting for the last in the household to get it so we're done for a while.
We did a group outing to the PCR test post to get the records straight, fully expecting massive crowds but all the over organization that made it take weeks to get going paid off...no wait, we got the VIP treatment but for that stick tickling the back of my brain.

I'm sitting out the 7 days until I can go about again....


----------



## KingShapton

MarcelNL said:


> The recovery from Omikron is swift, we're now waiting for the last in the household to get it so we're done for a while.
> We did a group outing to the PCR test post to get the records straight, fully expecting massive crowds but all the over organization that made it take weeks to get going paid off...no wait, we got the VIP treatment but for that stick tickling the back of my brain.
> 
> I'm sitting out the 7 days until I can go about again....


I'm very happy to hear that, it sounds like you and your family got through it almost without any complications!


----------



## Luftmensch

Keith Sinclair said:


> Haleakala crater winter time was little cold at 10'000 feet.





KingShapton said:


> The picture from Haleakala crater looks absolutely stunning!



Absolutely stunning!! That's gorgeous! It looks so desolate...


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> NSW published quite detailed figures about infection rates of vaccinated and unvaccinated people, as well as hospitalisations and fatalities.
> 
> Here are some interesting figures.
> 
> Vaccination status of cases in NSW:
> View attachment 159749
> 
> Looking at this graph, the immediate reaction is "look, most cases are vaccinated people, the vaccines don't work."
> 
> Looking a bit more closely, it is obvious that, during the Delta wave (August to end of October), there were way more unvaccinated cases than vaccinated ones. Then, during the Omicron wave (still ongoing), we see that, from mid-December (which is when the wave started here), vaccinated cases vastly outnumber unvaccinated ones.
> 
> How come? Two reasons, I believe:
> 
> The vaccines are a lot less effective at preventing infection with Omicron than with Delta.
> At a vaccination rate of over 90%, there are nine times as many vaccinated targets for the virus than unvaccinated ones, so the vaccinated cases outnumber the unvaccinated ones.
> Now let's look at the vaccination status of hospitalised cases in NSW:
> View attachment 159751
> 
> Now the picture is very different. Unvaccinated hospitalisations vastly outnumber vaccinated ones for both Delta and Omicron. There is an uptick of hospitalisations in December, but it is small, despite the hugely higher number of infections.
> 
> The picture is very similar for ICU cases:
> View attachment 159752
> 
> Unvaccinated people are way more likely to end up in ICU. Although there are fewer than 10% unvaccinated people in the state, they account for ten times as many ICU cases. In plain text: per capita, unvaccinated people are 100 times more likely to end up in ICU than vaccinated people.
> 
> And here is the status for fatalities:
> View attachment 159753
> 
> Despite accounting for < 10% of the population, unvaccinated people account for about five times as many fatalities. Translation: an unvaccinated person is about 50 times more likely to die from Covid than a vaccinated person.
> 
> I think this makes it abundantly clear that, while the vaccines don't protect well against infection with Omicron, they greatly reduce the risk of hospitalisation and death.
> 
> In my book, that's a huge win.



@Michi; Nick Evershed at the Grauniad has been good at dissecting/visualising data. They published an article today; similar to what you wrote a week or two ago. Nothing new really... It graphically illustrates severe outcomes for the unvaccinated are 25x higher than for unvaccinated...


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> @Michi; Nick Evershed at the Grauniad has been good at dissecting/visualising data. They published an article today; similar to what you wrote a week or two ago. Nothing new really... It graphically illustrates severe outcomes for the unvaccinated are 25x higher than for unvaccinated...


Yeah. Unfortunately, the anti-vaxxers don't have the requisite number of neurons to grasp that, so the misinformation will continue. Never let reality get in the way of belief…


----------



## MarcelNL

small update; the last one of the household now also tested positive....so we should be done for a few months


----------



## EricEricEric

Anti viral is definitely the way to go as it’s effective against any strain 














Ivermectin Prophylaxis Used for COVID-19: A Citywide, Prospective, Observational Study of 223,128 Subjects Using Propensity Score Matching


Background: Ivermectin has demonstrated different mechanisms of action that potentially protect from both coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection and COVID-19-related comorbidities. Based on the studies suggesting efficacy in prophylaxis combined with the known safety profile of...




www.cureus.com


----------



## Michi

Your ability to dig up drivel is really impressive. This is what is known as a low-quality observational study.

In controlled and double-blinded trials, Ivermectin does not show significant benefits. For now, the available evidence suggests that treatment with Ivermectin is an uncertain and unsafe gamble.

For balance, here is what the FDA has to say about it:

Why You Should Not Use Ivermectin to Treat or Prevent COVID-19


----------



## MarcelNL

Michi said:


> Your ability to dig up drivel is really impressive. This is what is known as a low-quality observational study.
> 
> In controlled and double-blinded trials, Ivermectin does not show significant benefits. For now, the available evidence suggests that treatment with Ivermectin is an uncertain and unsafe gamble.
> 
> For balance, here is what the FDA has to say about it:
> 
> Why You Should Not Use Ivermectin to Treat or Prevent COVID-19


I guess the 'ignore' button works quite well  refreshing!


----------



## chefwp

Michi said:


> Yeah. Unfortunately, the anti-vaxxers don't have the requisite number of neurons to grasp that, so the misinformation will continue. Never let reality get in the way of belief…


----------



## chefwp

EricEricEric said:


> Ivermectin Prophylaxis Used for COVID-19: A Citywide, Prospective, Observational Study of 223,128 Subjects Using Propensity Score Matching
> 
> 
> Background: Ivermectin has demonstrated different mechanisms of action that potentially protect from both coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection and COVID-19-related comorbidities. Based on the studies suggesting efficacy in prophylaxis combined with the known safety profile of...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cureus.com


When cureus.com was started it seemed an interesting new way to journal medical news by using crowd-sourcing as a way to get rapid peer review globally from 'real world' experiences. People, including me, were skeptical, but tried to keep an open mind. To dismiss that anything useful could come out of it seemed overly pessimistic, history favors the bold they say. However, now in the era of the pandemic our fears about it has crystalized as we can see that people have embraced it to legitimize fringe conspiracy nonsense. Of course that is my opinion and you are free to have a different one.


----------



## Bill13

Microsoft Word - Draft_MSAP20220115_m20220117.docx (arxiv.org) 

A pre-print of a Japanese study. Funded in part by Takeda Science Foundation. Takeda is an enormous pharma company so I find it interesting they included a drug like Iver which is so cheap.

Conclusion

The world is now afraid of the highly infectious omicron variant, and research is required to know about this variant. Our study gave an insight into its probable molecular consequences about infectivity and pathogenicity of the Omicron variant. The study also demonstrated that the highly infectious B.1.620 strain may be the origin of the Omicron variant, and mutations in all major proteins made omicron less pathogenic. Through docking analysis, we revealed that the mutations in spike protein increased its binding affinity for its main receptor ACE2 while decreased binding affinity for its co-receptor NRP-1. All the promising drugs that target the main protease would also be effective against this variant; however, Ivermectin shows the strongest binding affinity, and Nirmatrelvir (Paxlovid), MPro 13b, and Lopinavir may be more effective against this variant.

what is science by Allan Savory, Ecologist. - YouTube


----------



## MarcelNL

*Insights from a computational analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant: Host-pathogen interaction, pathogenicity and possible therapeutics*

underlining by me....

One of the authors, that all but one originate from Bangladesh, received a GRANT from Takeda and one from Mitsubishi. No way that Takeda did include anything and as to the conclusions: I would not put any money on them as theoretical (computed) affinity usually ends up being very different from in vivo results.


----------



## dAtron

Bill13 said:


> Microsoft Word - Draft_MSAP20220115_m20220117.docx (arxiv.org)
> 
> A pre-print of a Japanese study. Funded in part by Takeda Science Foundation. Takeda is an enormous pharma company so I find it interesting they included a drug like Iver which is so cheap.
> 
> Conclusion
> 
> The world is now afraid of the highly infectious omicron variant, and research is required to know about this variant. Our study gave an insight into its probable molecular consequences about infectivity and pathogenicity of the Omicron variant. The study also demonstrated that the highly infectious B.1.620 strain may be the origin of the Omicron variant, and mutations in all major proteins made omicron less pathogenic. Through docking analysis, we revealed that the mutations in spike protein increased its binding affinity for its main receptor ACE2 while decreased binding affinity for its co-receptor NRP-1. All the promising drugs that target the main protease would also be effective against this variant; however, Ivermectin shows the strongest binding affinity, and Nirmatrelvir (Paxlovid), MPro 13b, and Lopinavir may be more effective against this variant.
> 
> what is science by Allan Savory, Ecologist. - YouTube


We already know this. Ivermectin works really well in vitro. But unless there is a proper randomised control trial published with a big enough cohort then ivermectin in vivo works as well as any other random drug. We are all waiting for the Oxford Principle trial so we know if ivermectin works in vivo or not.


----------



## MarcelNL

I dare say that for most patients with Omikron using Ivermecting ain't going to be a viable option given the risk benefit ratio of the stuff

Interesting study, and interesting to see that a participant compensation scheme (if only 20 Pound) that apparently is nudging people to stay in the study was OK with the ethics committee.


----------



## Michi

MarcelNL said:


> Interesting study, and interesting to see that a participant compensation scheme (if only 20 Pound) that apparently is nudging people to stay in the study was OK with the ethics committee.


You'd have to be quite desperate to become a guinea pig for 20 Pounds…


----------



## MarcelNL

compensation is just intended to even out of pocket cost for participants, parking fees etc...there are studies for which actual payments are made, usually those are phase 1 studies where volunteers submit themselves to new drugs in first into men studies. Higher amounts, more effort from participants, higher potential risks..


----------



## Luftmensch

Now at least none of them have parasites!


----------



## knifeknight

Michi said:


> You'd have to be quite desperate to become a guinea pig for 20 Pounds…


The whole world already is one for mRNA/Vector vaccins - based on "studies" of mere x0000 people, control groups already destroyed.


----------



## MarcelNL

knifeknight said:


> The whole world already is one for mRNA/Vector vaccins - based on "studies" of mere x0000 people, control groups already destroyed.


What is it you are trying to say? That the studies performed were not good enough, if so what is your critique exactly as it seems to have dropped from your message? Or is the issue that there are no vaccin naive people anymore? really?


----------



## Michi

knifeknight said:


> The whole world already is one for mRNA/Vector vaccins - based on "studies" of mere x0000 people, control groups already destroyed.


Yes, it's definitely one gigantic conspiracy. Keep working along those lines. It'll do you good.


----------



## Michi

Unvaccinated people in NSW account for just under 8% of the eligible population.



Those 8% unvaccinated occupy 67% of ICU beds.

I wonder why that is…


----------



## Michi

knifeknight said:


> '80% of serious COVID cases are fully vaccinated' says Ichilov hospital director
> 
> 
> Vaccine has "no significance regarding severe illness," says Prof. Jacob Giris.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.israelnationalnews.com


That means 20% are not fully vaccinated or unvaccinated

It is worth noting that 98.9% of Israel's population has received at least two doses of the vaccine.

So, the 1.1% of the total population who are not fully vaccinated take up 20% of the hospital beds. In other words, an unvaccinated person in Israel is about 18 times more likely to end up in hospital than a vaccinated person.

I do hope that this doctor is better at doctoring than he is at statistics.


----------



## EricEricEric

It’s very curious and problematic how people who have had the vaccination can later be termed “not vaccinated” any longer even though they were defined as fully vaccinated before, or redefined as only “partially vaccinated”

Every few months it seems to be getting more and more difficult to spin the statistics in favor of vaccination 

The great reality is that the vaccinations were never of any benefit to people under 65 and without MULTIPLE comorbidities

What’s even more interesting is that the people who have died from covid that are not vaccinated where people majority 65 years of age and over along with multiple comorbidities and that same stat is shared with the deaths of those with vaccination

Finally there still seems to be a lot of debate about the accuracy of the PCR test. 

Also we saw later revealed, after almost two years of Covid, that an individual who was previously infected has a potential to test positive for 12 weeks post infection


----------



## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> It’s very curious and problematic how people who have had the vaccination can later be termed “not vaccinated” any longer even though they were defined as fully vaccinated before, or redefined as only “partially vaccinated”


You really don’t learn, do you?

For the n-th time: no source, no point.

How do you explain that unvaccinated people are 15-20 times more likely to require hospital treatment for Covid than unvaccinated ones?


----------



## M1k3

knifeknight said:


> 12 Countries Roll Back COVID Restrictions, Israel Scraps ‘Green Pass’
> 
> 
> Sweden and Switzerland joined Denmark, Norway, Finland, Ireland, The Netherlands, Italy, Lithuania, France and the UK in announcing they will lift COVID restrictions and open up their countries.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> childrenshealthdefense.org


"Legal Information and Disclaimer
The information contained herein is not intended to diagnose, treat, prevent, or cure any disease. Parents, caregivers, consumers, patients, individuals and health practitioners must use their own judgment concerning specific treatment options. The Children’s Health Defense authors, editors, and principals disclaim any liability or responsibility to any person or organization for any loss, damage, expense, fine, injury, or penalty that may arise or result from the use of any information, recommendations, opinions and/or errors on this website or in our articles. Any use of, or reliance on, information reflected on this website or in our articles is solely the responsibility of the viewer."




Sounds like a real reliable source.
/Sarcasm


----------



## Michi

The Children’s Health Defense has a Wikipedia entry. The first sentence on that page states:

“*Children's Health Defense* is an American activist group mainly known for anti-vaccine activities and has been identified as one of the main sources of misinformation on vaccines.”


----------



## MarcelNL

BTW; that source is talking nonsense as The Netherlands did lift SOME of the Covid related restrictions but certainly not all...and even if they did; does that make Covid go away, become unreal, or wat happened incorrect?

_On Jan. 26, the Netherlands reopened restaurants, bars, museums and theaters as part of a broader easing of restrictions._
The Netherlands did lift SOME of the restrictions,, sure thing, but theaters can only have 1/3rd of seating capacity, nightclubs are still closed, bars and restaurants close at 22:00 etc.

that website has MISINFORMATSIYA spelled all over it!


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Started watching Winter Olympics in China. What a difference from US. It's no wonder China with far greater population has less cases. 
Among other challenges they want to show they can hold major international event with as little infection as possible. 

US political leadership is boycotting these games for human rights issues in China. Democrats same old moral high horse in a country where politics are divided and lawyers rule, most of population will be less well off than parents even if they work more.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Even though winter sports I've never done, really like watching Winter Olympics. Half pipe events, down hill ski, skeleton, speed skating, 
Single & Pairs ice skating, Ice Hockey. 

Coldest I've been is in Hokaido in February ice carving competition. I had to take breaks in the coffee tent, two man teams we worked into the night as did most of the teams. 20 three hundred pound blocks 48 hours to finish. At night second year did it got down to 11 degree F. It snowed too. 

















My best friends were the hot bowls of noodles.


----------



## knifeknight

Michi said:


> The Children’s Health Defense has a Wikipedia entry. The first sentence on that page states:
> 
> “*Children's Health Defense* is an American activist group mainly known for anti-vaccine activities and has been identified as one of the main sources of misinformation on vaccines.”


So what ? Anything that‘s not from one of your *pro-vaccine sources* is disqualified as „misinformation“?

Oh - I forgot: there are no approved statistics. It’s all about statistics…


----------



## tcmx3

so all those people who were screaming at me that if you are mean to these anti-vaxxers you'll never get them to stop, after several pages now of evidence that despite people who actually know some **** trying their very best to be all nice in explaining things to these  with zero effect, are you ready to apologize to me?


----------



## MarcelNL

knifeknight said:


> So what ? Anything that‘s not from one of your *pro-vaccine sources* is disqualified as „misinformation“?
> 
> Oh - I forgot: there are no approved statistics. All is about statistics…


sure, if it's not from the propaganda department for biological warfare it's not true...

I apologize @tcmx3 ..


----------



## EricEricEric

We have to consider how many lives were destroyed by these lockdowns and how incredibly useless they were 









Analysis Suggests COVID Lockdowns May Not Have Been as Effective as Thought [CORRECTED]


A study from Johns Hopkins researchers proves that lockdowns were ineffective and actually damaging to our society as a whole.




www.westernjournal.com













A Johns Hopkins study says 'ill-founded' COVID lockdowns did more harm than good


The researchers say lockdowns had no noticeable effect on reducing COVID-related deaths and a "devastating effect" on economies and social ills.



health.wusf.usf.edu













Lockdowns had little or no impact on COVID-19 deaths, new study shows


Lockdowns in the U.S. and Europe had little or no impact in reducing deaths from COVID-19, according to a new analysis by researchers at Johns Hopkins University.




m.washingtontimes.com


----------



## stringer

EricEricEric said:


> We have to consider how many lives were destroyed by these lockdowns and how incredibly useless they were
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Analysis Suggests COVID Lockdowns May Not Have Been as Effective as Thought [CORRECTED]
> 
> 
> A study from Johns Hopkins researchers proves that lockdowns were ineffective and actually damaging to our society as a whole.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.westernjournal.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A Johns Hopkins study says 'ill-founded' COVID lockdowns did more harm than good
> 
> 
> The researchers say lockdowns had no noticeable effect on reducing COVID-related deaths and a "devastating effect" on economies and social ills.
> 
> 
> 
> health.wusf.usf.edu
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Lockdowns had little or no impact on COVID-19 deaths, new study shows
> 
> 
> Lockdowns in the U.S. and Europe had little or no impact in reducing deaths from COVID-19, according to a new analysis by researchers at Johns Hopkins University.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> m.washingtontimes.com



So lockdowns make vaccines more dangerous?


----------



## MarcelNL

wait, shortly someone will say the lockdowns caused hospitalizations and deaths


----------



## Greasylake

MarcelNL said:


> wait, shortly someone will say the lockdowns caused hospitalizations and deaths


Lotta people were dying around that time, and a lot of them were in hospitals... hmmmmm


----------



## ian

tcmx3 said:


> so all those people who were screaming at me that if you are mean to these anti-vaxxers you'll never get them to stop, after several pages now of evidence that despite people who actually know some **** trying their very best to be all nice in explaining things to these  with zero effect, are you ready to apologize to me?



I don’t think this thread counts as an experiment to see what happens if everyone is nice to antivaxers…

I have pretty modest hopes as to how many minds this thread will change, one way or another. But I’ve yet to see any evidence that insulting people helps, and it’s more pleasant for me to read the thread when it’s an exchange of ideas rather than an insult fest.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Well lockdowns here have caused many business to go under. That's less tax revenue for politicians. Since this strain not as severe there is effort to keep things open. Still have to wear masks indoors in public. Since it is policy gotten used to it. 

Nationwide many store chains are facing bankruptcy due to online ordering. Don't mind wearing mask & taking personal safety habits.
But you can't have lockdowns every time a new virus pops up. Because you can get almost everything on line, stores were suffering before Covid. now after two years of covid many won't survive.


----------



## MarcelNL

@ian you are right of course, it's just that it is too tiring to refrain from sarcasm when the arguments not ever change and keep coming from the ministry for antivaxx misinformatsiya in an unadulterated way, fact checking appears to be a side effect of vaccines..


----------



## Michi

knifeknight said:


> Anything that‘s not from one of your *pro-vaccine sources* is disqualified as „misinformation“?
> 
> Oh - I forgot: there are no approved statistics. All is about statistics…


I generally try to select reliable sources. Established medical journals such as the Lancet, government sources such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics, newspapers with a good reputation, such as Der Spiegel, New York Times, Associated Press, and so on.

When a Wikipedia article warns about a source spreading misinformation in the very first sentence, as is the case for Children's Health Defense, that makes it highly unlikely that this is a reliable source. It is also not encouraging that its chair, Robert F. Kennedy Jr, is a well-known anti-vaxxer who has had his YouTube account removed for spreading vaccine misinformation.

Besides using reliable sources, I also try and find a variety of sources so I can get a broad view of a topic. I am well aware that relying on a small number of sources risks me ending up in an echo chamber. And I use my own scientific education to form an opinion.

The statements from this Professor Jerris you linked to show that he does not know how to apply even the most basic primary-level algebra to the data. It should be obvious to anyone above the age of ten that, if 1.1% of unvaccinated people end up occupying 20% of hospital beds, any notion that vaccines have no effect is clearly bonkers. So, that source has just permanently disqualified itself, as far as I am concerned.


----------



## EricEricEric

I would like to point out that the Lancet outright lied about HCQ and was forced to remove their “study” as it was 100% false.

Also, government sources seem to keep changing information and definitions as it suits them 

A really good example would be of people dying “with” Covid. How it’s now revealed that PCR tests can give false positives for almost three months. Cloth masks being revealed to be ineffective and the push for N95 masks for wide spread public use. Covid being air born instead of droplet. Lockdowns proving to be ineffective and detrimental. The vaccines not preventing infection or transmission as originally publicized 

The list keeps going on…


----------



## stringer

"The list keeps going on…"

This thread goes on forever and the party never ends.


----------



## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> I would like to point out that the Lancet outright lied about HCQ and was forced to remove their “study” as it was 100% false.


The Lancet did not lie outright, it was not "their" study, and it was not "forced to remove" it. Who lied were the authors of the study that the Lancet published.

The Lancet changed its quality control process in response, retracted the study, and was open and transparent about the entire episode. That's about all a scientific publication can do when something is amiss with one of the articles.

Moreover, the Lancet is still the world's most respected medical journal, and for good reason. It built that reputation over many decades, and the overwhelming majority of articles it publishes stand up to scientific scrutiny.

Again, as usual, no sources for your assertions. In the absence of reliable sources, I will continue to dismiss them. Give me the data, and I'll look at it. In the absence of data, there is nothing to look at.


----------



## Geigs

EricEricEric said:


> I would like to point out that the Lancet outright lied about HCQ and was forced to remove their “study” as it was 100% false.
> 
> Also, government sources seem to keep changing information and definitions as it suits them
> 
> A really good example would be of people dying “with” Covid. How it’s now revealed that PCR tests can give false positives for almost three months. Cloth masks being revealed to be ineffective and the push for N95 masks for wide spread public use. Covid being air born instead of droplet. Lockdowns proving to be ineffective and detrimental. The vaccines not preventing infection or transmission as originally publicized
> 
> The list keeps going on…


 What keeps going is your inability to understand how science works. Everything you're using to support your flawed argument is in fact part of due process in biomedical research. Why would you assume that we would be 100% right first time when a novel virus pops up? A hypothesis is proposed, tested and revised. Getting all worked up about a vaccine that is saving untold millions of lives because it doesn't fit your ideal is honestly pretty pathetic. Does it stop you from dying? Yes, most likely. Does it stop you from getting infected? Probably not. Also, PCR tests are not giving false positive results; nucleic acid can persist in the absence of whole virions. Again, a failure on your part to understand things is not an indication the science is flawed.


----------



## tcmx3

ian said:


> I have pretty modest hopes as to how many minds this thread will change, one way or another. But I’ve yet to see any evidence that insulting people helps, and it’s more pleasant for me to read the thread when it’s an exchange of ideas rather than an insult fest.



you'll never change their minds but if you make it really unpleasant for folks to post garbage some of them actually will stop posting it  

and we shouldnt be insulting them we should be laughing at them. that's what you do with clowns; laugh at them.


----------



## spaceconvoy

tcmx3 said:


> you'll never change their minds but if you make it really unpleasant for folks to post garbage some of them actually will stop posting it
> 
> and we shouldnt be insulting them we should be laughing at them. that's what you do with clowns; laugh at them.


There has been plenty of sarcasm, derision, and insults here, to seemingly no effect. How do you know what they find to be unpleasant? Clowns love to be laughed at, that's what they want. You should be apologizing for continuing to give them the attention they crave.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Whenever Eric posts this thread gets a new life of its own.


----------



## KingShapton

tcmx3 said:


> you'll never change their minds but if you make it really unpleasant for folks to post garbage some of them actually will stop posting it
> 
> and we shouldnt be insulting them we should be laughing at them. that's what you do with clowns; laugh at them.


And if you can't laugh at the clowns anymore because the mental garbage is getting too much, there's always the ignore button. In some cases it is a blessing!


----------



## MarcelNL

they were banned from twitter early '21, now that does not mean a lot to me but it MAY just mean their facts are not quite right. Now why don't you read up on virology at a proper source?


----------



## Michi

MarcelNL said:


> Now why don't you read up on virology at a proper source?


It's much easier to read up on it at a sensationalist improper source.


----------



## Michi

knifeknight said:


> ZEUGEN DER WAHRHEIT: Was in Spitälern, Heimen und Ordinationen wirklich passiert
> 
> 
> Gab es Spitalsüberlastungen? Wie viele Menschen leiden wirklich an Nebenwirkungen der Covid-Impfungen?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.auf1.tv


For those of you who are not native German speakers, AUF1 is a right-wing extremist Austrian channel, led by Stefan Magnet, a well-known anti-semitist.


----------



## tcmx3

Michi said:


> For those of you who are not native German speakers, AUF1 is a right-wing extremist Austrian channel, lead by Stefan Magnet, a well-known anti-semitist.



as has been pointed out, racism is a major driving force behind the "everyone has to get infected" campaigns, forcing reopenings even when people are getting sick, etc. it is not coincidence.

also I will not be taking suggestions that knifeknight posted that by accident; mans just outed himself.


----------



## Brian Weekley

What an interesting turn of events. Canadians are in general a pretty compliant and submissive group. Through the whole Covid thing the population has been pretty sheeplike and followed whatever pronouncements have been made by those in power without question or complaint (myself included). Then Canadian truckers rebelled at some new requirements (I don’t really know what they were) and started a convoy from Vancouver to the Canadian capital, Ottawa, to protest. Think LA to Chicago or thereabouts. This started an upwelling of protest by seemingly average Canadians about the perpetual and varying rules under which they have lived for the past two years. The Canadian Prime Minister (think President) immediately took a page out of the American playbook and labelled these protesters as “Nazi, right wing, racist, homophobic, extremists” who were not worthy of any consideration. To most people these people seemed more like average people standing beside highways in the freezing cold waving Canadian flags and cheering the truckers on. Everybody likes a good parade … even if it is in the freezing cold. The Canadian Prime Minister took himself and his family and went into hiding. I guess he didn’t want to get wacked by some crazed housewife wielding a Canadian flag. Probably a good move. Funds poured in from across the country and accumulated over ten million dollars on Gofundme to support the truckers. The truckers arrived in the nations capital and apart from disrespecting some statues everything seemed pretty chill (this is in freezing weather remember). There was quite a bit of horn honking by the truckers and about 50,000 people joined in to protest as well. The majority of them probably didn’t have the faintest idea of what was going on and the whole thing looked suspiciously like a mid winter carnivale! The Mayor and Police Chief declared that it would likely be necessary to call in the Canadian Army to quell the carnivale … errr “uprising” … good luck with that … I don’t think there are 20,000 Canadian soldiers and a fair share are fat and out of practice. A good number are probably on leave to attend the Carnivale that seems to be going on in the nations Capital. 

But here’s the interesting thing that happened. The whole thing attracted the attention of American main stream press and politicians. Endless scorn was heaped on the truckers and their supporters by some, endless morale support by a few others. Gofundme confiscated the money that had been raised declaring that they were going to distribute the money raised for the Truckers to more worthy charities. The Governor of Florida threatened legal action and Gofundme tucked their tail and backtracked. In hours millions of dollars were raised to support the truckers on an alternate site … Usendme perhaps? Is all of this attention from American power brokers in fear that something similar might happen south of the border? Americans are not used to playing the role of compliant and submissive … sheeplike if you will! There are a LOT more truckers south of the border than there are in Canada and a LOT more moms who might go out and cheer and wave flags. Where is the spirit of the campus riots of the 60’s? I think this is too close to the truth for comfort. Interesting … it just took a few truckers to put Canada on the map in the eyes of some Americans.

Let me end by saying that I have no skin in this game … apart from being somewhat annoyed that supply chain problems have resulted in the spotty availability of Raisin Bran Cereal in my grocery stores (I don’t know what that has to do with Covid but the two seem to go hand in hand). I’m old and will be long gone before any fictional? long term effects of untested vaccines. I’m triple vaccinated (reporting submissively to the appointed auditorium at the specified hour), have had both the original pre-delta C-19 and the more recent omicron variant. I really don’t care whether or not my neighbour is vaccinated or not … that’s their choice for better or worse. I really don’t know whether vaccinating a three year old who reportedly has an infinitismal chance of contracting serious Covid is a good idea … but it’s really for the kids parents to decide in any event.

I find it all to be very interesting, though.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Jeez Brain I had to Google to see if that actually happened. Truckers are underpaid for the many hours on the road. Because of backlogs at ports trucking schools have started training people who want the job. Pay has has gone up because of the situation. Some say self driving technology will replace truckers. I'll believe it if live long enough to see it. Same with airlines with Omicron variant so many got sick that flights were canceled not enough pilots to fly the planes. Some are nearing retirement age. 
So a need for pilots too.


----------



## Brian Weekley

All of that is true. The economy simply doesn’t work without pilots and truckers. If they have a complaint it would seem to me that listening to them would be the best course of action. Vilifying them seems counter productive at best. But hey ... What do I really know … not much I’m afraid. But something is going on when American politicians and news sources start climbing onboard.


----------



## Lars

I ❤ science


----------



## Matus

Enough Mr. Knifeknight

A fairly heavy handed cleanup took place in case anyone wonders.


----------



## Lars

Thank you @Matus ❤


----------



## KingShapton

Lars said:


> Thank you @Matus ❤


 Thank you @Matus!


----------



## KingShapton

I have just come from the doctor with my wife and we are both really happy and relieved. We both just received our second booster. In view of the current infection numbers in Germany, we both feel much better protected now.

I am so happy that I found a doctor who is already injecting the second booster. Hardly any doctor in Germany is currently doing this, officially the first booster (i.e. the third vaccination) is still being administered and requests for the second booster are still being rejected at the moment.

Since I also have at least one operation in a hospital this year and am exposed to more risks of infection there than usual, this is a really reassuring feeling with a view to the future.

Next I call my mother-in-law so that she goes to this doctor next Monday and also gets her second booster. I'm so happy for her and I don't have to worry about her as much as before.


----------



## MarcelNL

wow a second booster? Good for you, especially as you'll be having surgery it's probably better to load your immune system now so it has some spare time when you'll be having surgery.

Getting home as fast as reasonably possible (next to picking a good and quick surgeon) is the best way to avoid nasty hospital bugs!


----------



## KingShapton

MarcelNL said:


> wow a second booster? Good for you, especially as you'll be having surgery it's probably better to load your immune system now so it has some spare time when you'll be having surgery.


That was exactly my thought behind it. Plus, unfortunately I belong to the group of people who are particularly at risk due to several previous illnesses, my first booster was more than 3 months ago and when I look at the data from Israel, the protective effect against infection decreases rapidly after 10-12 weeks. Statements from the Biontech CEO confirm this. And I want to be protected as well as possible.




MarcelNL said:


> Getting home as fast as reasonably possible (next to picking a good and quick surgeon) is the best way to avoid nasty hospital bugs!


I'm doing my best after unfortunately suffering from the consequences of 1-2 poorly performed operations in the last year. Now I'm really looking for experts on something like this, I've already found one and now I'm getting a second opinion.

Based on my experiences over the last year I will probably be in the hospital for at least 10-14 days.

But I only make a decision for an operation when I am sure that this time I am with the right surgeon. And when it is really 100% certain what exactly needs to be done. In any case, it is currently certain that at least one operation is necessary, a second may be necessary. **** happens!

In the end, all of this is fine with me if I then get my normal and accustomed life back. It's worth every hospital stay!!

But you're absolutely right - hospitals are dangerous places, too many nasty bugs to catch.


----------



## inferno

no covid here!!


----------



## Michi

inferno said:


> no covid here!!
> 
> View attachment 165246


Interesting image in the background…


----------



## KingShapton

A short update on the side effects of the second booster - apart from a slight pain in my shoulder when I move my arm, I don't notice anything else. It's the same with my wife.


----------



## Bill13

M&M Clips: Is the spike protein mRNA in Moderna & Pfizer vaccines identical to SARS-CoV-2 mRNA? - YouTube

The best explanation I have seen regarding the mRNA vaccines. Kevin McKernan is also a good twitter follow.


----------



## ian

Answer: no.


----------



## gregfisk

Everyone seems to react differently to the vaccines. I had no effects at all from my first Pfizer shot but was sick for three days from the next two. My wife was the same for the first shot but faired much better than me for the last two. Some people I know have no effects whatsoever from any of the shots. My understanding is that it has a lot to do with how hard your immune system try’s to fight it off. Older folks seem to have less reaction, apparently because there immune systems aren’t as good as they were when younger.

The question I asked my pharmacist friend was what is the correlation between how you react to the vaccines and how you react to actually getting Covid. Apparently the jury is still out on that one and we really don’t know. This is a friend that I got my second shot with and she was also sick for 3 days pretty much just like me. She also had the same reaction as I did from the third shot. Three weeks ago she got Omicron and said it was like a mild cold. So did two other friends of mine that were triple vaxxed and also described getting Omicron as being like a cold. That’s a lot better than being in the hospital for days or weeks painfully trying to breathe, full of all kinds of drugs with tubes coming out everywhere. That same pharmacist has been working in the ICU recently which has been full of non vaccinated people for months now. Right now they’re in level 2 with 8 beds per room. If they hit level 3 they have to start deciding who gets resources and care. She does not want to get to level 3.

All I know is that if I need to keep taking boosters to stay out of the hospital I’m all in.


----------



## MarcelNL

There is a big difference between the symptoms of the variants, delta is still going around too and the risk of getting severely ill is a lot higher than with Omikron. In my country the new infection counter had it's ceiling redecorated and still the number of patients in hospital is going down...which bodes well for easing of the measures....


----------



## Bill13

ian said:


> Answer: no.


Was there a question? Answer - No


----------



## ian

Bill13 said:


> Was there a question? Answer - No



The title of the video you linked was a yes/no question.

What was compelling to you about that video? To me, it seems less an explanation of how the vaccines work and more a focus on one potentially interesting gap in the current literature about them.


----------



## Barmoley

gregfisk said:


> Everyone seems to react differently to the vaccines. I had no effects at all from my first Pfizer shot but was sick for three days from the next two. My wife was the same for the first shot but faired much better than me for the last two. Some people I know have no effects whatsoever from any of the shots. My understanding is that it has a lot to do with how hard your immune system try’s to fight it off. Older folks seem to have less reaction, apparently because there immune systems aren’t as good as they were when younger.
> 
> The question I asked my pharmacist friend was what is the correlation between how you react to the vaccines and how you react to actually getting Covid. Apparently the jury is still out on that one and we really don’t know. This is a friend that I got my second shot with and she was also sick for 3 days pretty much just like me. She also had the same reaction as I did from the third shot. Three weeks ago she got Omicron and said it was like a mild cold. So did two other friends of mine that were triple vaxxed and also described getting Omicron as being like a cold. That’s a lot better than being in the hospital for days or weeks painfully trying to breathe, full of all kinds of drugs with tubes coming out everywhere. That same pharmacist has been working in the ICU recently which has been full of non vaccinated people for months now. Right now they’re in level 2 with 8 beds per room. If they hit level 3 they have to start deciding who gets resources and care. She does not want to get to level 3.
> 
> All I know is that if I need to keep taking boosters to stay out of the hospital I’m all in.


Vaccines and the disease itself is different for many. My first time with the original variant was like very mild flu or severe cold. If it wasn’t for the anxiety caused by everyone telling me it will get worse, it didn’t, it wouldn’t be too bad. The first vaccine shot I was sick for 3-4 days or so, pretty much at the same level as the disease, but since I knew it was just the reaction to the vaccine not bad. Second vaccine was worse, but shorter 2-3 days. Second time I got covid, it was omicron, most likely and it was like having a cold for 5 days or so. I know some people that haven’t been vaccinated and only had omicron and their disease was similar to mine, I also know of people with 3 vaccine shots and they had a similar experience. I also know of unvaccinated who haven’t gotten covid yet and I know of vaccinated who had covid 3 times now. There is just no rule to this on an individual level, but statistics tell us that vaccinated have an easier time on average and that omicron seems to be milder than the previous variants.


----------



## KingShapton

Yet another update on the second booster and side effects.

Known side effects of Corminaty (Biontech) also include sleep disturbances. I had that, along with a few other side effects, after my very first vaccination.

And since tonight I've definitely had trouble sleeping again. Since I usually sleep like a bear in winter, this can only be a side effect of the second booster. If it becomes like the first vaccination then it will last for about a week.

Nevertheless, I'm really happy that I got the second booster. And the insomnia is annoying, but so far that's the only side effect (besides pain at the injection site). That's a really small price to pay for better protection, which I'm happy to pay.


----------



## Jovidah

I had the insomnia thing for a full month after both vaccinations. It's a known less common side-effect, went away after a month for me both times. That being said, my health has been a mess for years so that probably didn't help.
On the flip side, when I finally got infected a few months after the sympthoms were negligible...apart from getting the same insomnia sympthoms again.


----------



## KingShapton

Jovidah said:


> I had the insomnia thing for a full month after both vaccinations. It's a known less common side-effect, went away after a month for me both times. That being said, my health has been a mess for years so that probably didn't help.
> On the flip side, when I finally got infected a few months after the sympthoms were negligible...apart from getting the same insomnia sympthoms again.


This is the first time I've heard that insomnia also occurs with an infection. But it actually makes sense if you think about it.

I will solve the current problem with half a sleeping pill for the next 2 days. I don't like these things at all and have a lot of respect for them, but half a tablet is a very harmless dose, especially if it's only for two days. I hope that my sleep pattern will settle down again.


----------



## Michi

KingShapton said:


> I will solve the current problem with half a sleeping pill for the next 2 days. I don't like these things at all and have a lot of respect for them, but half a tablet is a very harmless dose, especially if it's only for two days. I hope that my sleep pattern will settle down again.


How well that works depends on what type of sleeping medication you are taking. You can count on about 4 hours for pretty much all of them. After that, the effect wears off; how much longer it lasts depends on the medication.

I hope you get some sleep, regardless!


----------



## KingShapton

Michi said:


> How well that works depends on what type of sleeping medication you are taking. You can count on about 4 hours for pretty much all of them. After that, the effect wears off; how much longer it lasts depends on the medication.
> 
> I hope you get some sleep, regardless!


Thanks for the informative link, I'll do some more research on the subject.


----------



## Jovidah

KingShapton said:


> This is the first time I've heard that insomnia also occurs with an infection. But it actually makes sense if you think about it.
> 
> I will solve the current problem with half a sleeping pill for the next 2 days. I don't like these things at all and have a lot of respect for them, but half a tablet is a very harmless dose, especially if it's only for two days. I hope that my sleep pattern will settle down again.


In all fairness, even at the best of times I'm not exactly the best sleeper, so fat chance I'm more sensitive to it than most. I don't think it's that common, and for most it's simply not serious enough to make a big deal about it. Worst case scenario it seems to last about a month.


----------



## gregfisk

Barmoley said:


> Vaccines and the disease itself is different for many. My first time with the original variant was like very mild flu or severe cold. If it wasn’t for the anxiety caused by everyone telling me it will get worse, it didn’t, it wouldn’t be too bad. The first vaccine shot I was sick for 3-4 days or so, pretty much at the same level as the disease, but since I knew it was just the reaction to the vaccine not bad. Second vaccine was worse, but shorter 2-3 days. Second time I got covid, it was omicron, most likely and it was like having a cold for 5 days or so. I know some people that haven’t been vaccinated and only had omicron and their disease was similar to mine, I also know of people with 3 vaccine shots and they had a similar experience. I also know of unvaccinated who haven’t gotten covid yet and I know of vaccinated who had covid 3 times now. There is just no rule to this on an individual level, but statistics tell us that vaccinated have an easier time on average and that omicron seems to be milder than the previous variants.



Somehow, I’ve been able to escape getting Covid. Probably because I’m retired and don’t have to be around people if I choose not to. And I always mask and stay clear of people when possible in public. There is no doubt at this point in time that we know different people react differently to Covid and that the different variants also attack us in different ways...

Unfortunately for the people who have the option and choose not to be vaccinated it can be a life or death decision. Being close to the medical community through friends I have seen the worst that Covid can give. Many people who are unvaccinated can get by with mild to moderate symptoms and come out okay in the end. But there are others who end up living in agony for weeks on ventilators, full of drugs and ultimately succumbing to Covid and dying. No one knows “yet” who these people will be. Or who will pull through to talk about it later. Many people will be ill for several days or a couple of weeks and then think they are getting better. My friend says they call this the dead cat bounce. People think they’re getting better, sometimes going home, only to end up back in ICU for their final days on this earth. Many towards the end of life wish they would have made different choices. IMO, there is absolutely no reason to not get vaccinated. Almost NO ONE is dying from the vaccines and it’s silly to believe otherwise, no matter what the propaganda might suggest. In the US we are getting closer to 1 million dead every day that passes. This may sound dramatic to many but personally I’m hoping that I might just change one person’s mind and just maybe save their or a loved ones life. Not to mention helping stop the spread of a potentially deadly virus.


----------



## MarcelNL

That is indeed the big issue, nobody at this point can predict how each individual will react to Covid let alone every variant...we do know that comorbidities and age increase the risk of getting severely ill. Best precaution IMO is indeed getting vaccinated and avoiding becoming infected. Perhaps, just perhaps the new and exciting DNA technology will at some point in future allow finding out who is at risk for a more targeted approach...

Meanwhile, the Netherlands, as many EU countries, are opening up in ten days from now most Covid measures will be history


----------



## Michi

For those still sitting on the fence, this is probably of interest.









Covid-19 is killing more people now than during most of the pandemic. Here's who's still at risk | CNN


Plummeting Covid-19 case counts across the United States are leading to lifted mask mandates and more conversations about steps toward normalcy -- but more people are dying of the coronavirus now than during most points of the pandemic.




edition.cnn.com





Take a look at the graph in the section titled "US Covid-19 death rate by vaccination status".


----------



## daveb

Mod Hat On

The Admin / Mod team have briefly discussed this threads segue into Russia's invasion / war with Ukraine. While it's a timely topic that I'm sure has a lot of interest among members, it is not within the scope of the forum. 

Allowing the ongoing Covid discussions led to members insulting and belittling each other, each side insisting their opinions were facts, endless citations from "expert" studies and an inordinate amount of moderator time.

Please take any discussion of this nature to a forum or other venue that is more suited for it. 

Thanks.


----------



## MarcelNL

Today the Covid measures were lifted, no more mask mandate, no more social distancing, this happens to coincide with the start of 'Karnaval' (Fasching)...I suspect it's going to look awkward to see tons people squeezed together in a bar.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Congratulations we are one of few states left that have public indoor mask mandate.


----------



## daddy yo yo

.

(deleted by myself because of irrelevance)


----------



## gregfisk

WA State will lift the mask mandates on March 24th. I hope by then omicron has died out and a new strain hasn’t taken over. Some states are definitely opening too soon. We’re still loosing over 2000 people a day in the states so it’s definitely not over yet.

I personally think this very long thread has been extremely interesting and has ran exceptionally well considering the topic and different views. I missed the recent bickering and cleanup so thanks to the mods for dealing with that. I found hearing from our members living in different countries fascinating and many people spent time posting science based articles. Looking at all the different ways that the pandemic was handled over the world was also very interesting. I hate to say it but I don’t think the US gets a very good grade. Australia, even as hard core as it was certainly did a better job at keeping its people alive. I’m sure it’s been difficult though being locked down for so long. All I know is that I never want to live through this type of thing again. It’s been very difficult for most of us no matter where we live.


----------



## KingShapton

gregfisk said:


> All I know is that I never want to live through this type of thing again. It’s been very difficult for most of us no matter where we live.


I agree completely!


----------



## MarcelNL

don't think the finish line is behind us, I expect we'll need to do some more sprints before our immune system is trained enough to cope with the variants to come....Hope this prophecy does not come true!


----------



## Bill13

Hopefully this is the 1st of many papers outlining all the "errors" and abuses of power that were made. 
medethics-rw-22021403.pdf (thegms.co)


----------



## MarcelNL

_Abstract Background and Purpose The purpose of this study is: first, to review disciplinary threats made to healthcare professionals by their governing bodies in the US; and second, to review medical literature for complications related to the COVID-19 vaccines and data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), particularly those related to pregnant women and women of reproductive age. The authors also aim to bring attention to the populace, healthcare workers, and healthcare administrators that illegal and unconstitutional gag orders have been placed on all healthcare workers in the US, and to alert everyone that no healthcare worker can be trusted since they are under a gag order which renders informed consent null and void. It is our intent to put governing bodies of healthcare workers on notice that they will be held accountable and lay legal groundwork for possible Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO) violations, collusion, and fraud. These potential criminal acts, exposed in a court of law, can pierce legal immunity of Big Pharma and others, and pierce any perceived immunity given to hospitals and organizations via the CARES ACT.


Methods Communications from the regulatory bodies for healthcare workers were reviewed. We reviewed the medical literature for complications related to the *experimental gene therapy injections* since rollout of the COVID-19 “vaccines”. We analyzed the VAERS data specifically to gauge overall deaths, menstrual abnormalities, fetal malformations in pregnancy, and pregnancy loss using in the Search VAERS Database platform._

OMG not again, I hope this 'gazette' is not printed as it would constitute a crime against nature.

You did notice this is a 'journal'with no ranking at all?


----------



## tcmx3

MarcelNL said:


> _Abstract Background and Purpose The purpose of this study is: first, to review disciplinary threats made to healthcare professionals by their governing bodies in the US; and second, to review medical literature for complications related to the COVID-19 vaccines and data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), particularly those related to pregnant women and women of reproductive age. The authors also aim to bring attention to the populace, healthcare workers, and healthcare administrators that illegal and unconstitutional gag orders have been placed on all healthcare workers in the US, and to alert everyone that no healthcare worker can be trusted since they are under a gag order which renders informed consent null and void. It is our intent to put governing bodies of healthcare workers on notice that they will be held accountable and lay legal groundwork for possible Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO) violations, collusion, and fraud. These potential criminal acts, exposed in a court of law, can pierce legal immunity of Big Pharma and others, and pierce any perceived immunity given to hospitals and organizations via the CARES ACT.
> 
> 
> Methods Communications from the regulatory bodies for healthcare workers were reviewed. We reviewed the medical literature for complications related to the *experimental gene therapy injections* since rollout of the COVID-19 “vaccines”. We analyzed the VAERS data specifically to gauge overall deaths, menstrual abnormalities, fetal malformations in pregnancy, and pregnancy loss using in the Search VAERS Database platform._
> 
> OMG not again, I hope this 'gazette' is not printed as it would constitute a crime against nature.
> 
> You did notice this is a 'journal'with no ranking at all?



sure is cool we give equal credence to both sides


----------



## MarcelNL

surely, if there are errors made there should be no cover ups but please reference reputable journals with some credibility and peer review.

'COVID is a disease of the vaccinated' yeah sure....good that I'm no woman, but I'd advocate choosing your OBGyn wisely as some seem unable to grasp some simple concepts outside their expertise.

_This is a disease of the vaccinated, NOT the unvaccinated. The most vaccinated countries in the world and states in the USA have the highest case rates of COVID-19. How is it that the entire USA NAVY ship, the USS Milwaukee, had 100% of its crew vaccinated and then became completely disabled because of a massive COVID-19 outbreak [84]? How is this possible? The false narratives have fallen apart right in front of everyone’s eyes and ABOG is in denial, continuing to force its puppets to push the “vaccine”, even in pregnancy_


----------



## Hockey3081

Bill13 said:


> Hopefully this is the 1st of many papers outlining all the "errors" and abuses of power that were made.
> medethics-rw-22021403.pdf (thegms.co)



This looks like some garbage produced with an antiquated version of Microsoft Publisher, made to post on 4chan.


----------



## gregfisk

Bill13 said:


> Hopefully this is the 1st of many papers outlining all the "errors" and abuses of power that were made.
> medethics-rw-22021403.pdf (thegms.co)



This is absurd and completely incompetent in its presentation. My friends who are health workers are under no such gag order and they are on the front lines, as Drs, nurses and pharmacists. What a crock from once again a fringe source with no foundation in reality. This type of information being generated is absurd and is doing nothing but harming our society as a whole. And the idea that someone can actually believe this drivel is just unbelievable. Sorry for the rant.


----------



## Bodine

Part of life, no guarantees, deal with it as it comes, we are born without permission and all die in the end. Live your life and enjoy it.


----------



## Barmoley

I am just glad that all sides can be heard no matter how crazy. I know first reaction is to silence those that are talking nonsense, but I am glad even the "crazies" have a voice.

At the company I work for a person will be fired for not being vaccinated. Makes no sense to me since he doesn't need to be in the office. The management wants all to come back to the office and because one other person is vulnerable, they will fire the unvaccinated. I disagree with the unvaccinated person not getting one of the vaccines, but I don't understand the reasoning for him being fired given that vaccinated can still spread the virus. The right thing would be for the vulnerable person to work from home since even though we are all vaccinated there is still no guarantees someone won't infect him.


----------



## tcmx3

Barmoley said:


> I am just glad that all sides can be heard no matter how crazy. I know first reaction is to silence those that are talking nonsense, but I am glad even the "crazies" have a voice.
> 
> At the company I work for a person will be fired for not being vaccinated. Makes no sense to me since he doesn't need to be in the office. The management wants all to come back to the office and because one other person is vulnerable, they will fire the unvaccinated. I disagree with the unvaccinated person not getting one of the vaccines, but I don't understand the reasoning for him being fired given that vaccinated can still spread the virus. The right thing would be for the vulnerable person to work from home since even though we are all vaccinated there is still no guarantees someone won't infect him.



I would invite you to consider the possibility that someone will always be silenced, you're just making a choice about WHO is getting silenced and in what way.

have you perhaps noticed how demographically homogeneous not only this forum but this thread is? that's not an accident. those of us for whom COVID has had relatively little impact (ie that same demographic) arent hurt by airing these out but you know I am not convinced the folks who have lost parents, siblings, etc. (of which we are still losing 3000 per day) would want to come in here and engage when that sort of thing is floating around. my evidence is that, well, no one has.

an opinion does not justify itself being heard and the lunacy being posted does squeeze other people out.


----------



## Barmoley

I agree that some extreme opinions can scare off some people or just make less combative unwilling to engage. I just think this is better than censoring opinions that go against the official narrative. In this thread many sides have been represented including extremes on both sides.

As far as demographics, the forum is very much about luxury items, kitchen knives in this case So it is predictable that the topics discussed will draw in a somewhat homogeneous demographic. Why is this surprising or something that needs to be "fixed"? To be here one has to be interested in knives and cooking. The person would also have to be able and willing to afford some of these knives to have an opinion on them. Isn't it a problem/feature of any enthusiast forum or discussion group.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

When this thread started wanted to know what people were reading to be against vaccines. Didn't have to go anywhere many got posted here. 

Tended to go with people who were scientist whose field is infectious virus & bacteria. Got all my shots as soon as could. 

The same Florida governor that gave no support for solar panels on buildings & houses in the sunshine state was chiding young students wearing mask telling them to take them off. America has more cases & deaths than other countries like China & India with much larger populations. It's not hard figure out why. 

If global warming continues much of Florida could be under water. It's happened in the past between ice ages when sea levels were quite a bit higher than now.


----------



## tcmx3

Keith Sinclair said:


> When this thread started wanted to know what people were reading to be against vaccines. Didn't have to go anywhere many got posted here.
> 
> Tended to go with people who were scientist whose field is infectious virus & bacteria. Got all my shots as soon as could.
> 
> *The same Florida governor that gave no support for solar panels on buildings & houses in the sunshine state was chiding young students wearing mask telling them to take them off.* America has more cases & deaths than other countries like China & India with much larger populations. It's not hard figure out why.
> 
> If global warming continues much of Florida could be under water. It's happened in the past between ice ages when sea levels were quite a bit higher than now.



and was spotted very shortly after masked up with an N95

"covid theatre" indeed.


----------



## Barmoley

Keith Sinclair said:


> When this thread started wanted to know what people were reading to be against vaccines. Didn't have to go anywhere many got posted here.
> 
> Tended to go with people who were scientist whose field is infectious virus & bacteria. Got all my shots as soon as could.
> 
> The same Florida governor that gave no support for solar panels on buildings & houses in the sunshine state was chiding young students wearing mask telling them to take them off. America has more cases & deaths than other countries like China & India with much larger populations. It's not hard figure out why.
> 
> If global warming continues much of Florida could be under water. It's happened in the past between ice ages when sea levels were quite a bit higher than now.


Many politicians are scum some tell people not to wear masks and wear them themselves others close restaurants and tell people not to see anyone yet go to a party at a restaurant. Politics is dirty business that's why we don't discuss it on this forum.

Safe bet to follow advice of the experts in the field though, better odds of arriving at a correct decision.


----------



## EricEricEric

“*In this study we present evidence that COVID-19 mRNA vaccine BNT162b2 is able to enter the human liver cell line Huh7 in vitro*,” the researchers wrote in the study, published in Current Issues of Molecular Biology. “BNT162b2 mRNA is reverse transcribed intracellularly into DNA as fast as 6 [hours] after BNT162b2 exposure.”

BNT162b2 is another name for the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine that is marketed under the brand name Comirnaty.

The whole process occurred rapidly within six hours. The vaccine’s mRNA converting into DNA and being found inside the cell’s nucleus is something that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said would not happen.

“*The genetic material delivered by mRNA vaccines never enters the nucleus of your cells*,” the CDC said on its web page titled “Myths and Facts about COVID-19 Vaccines.”

*The Swedish study also found spike proteins expressed on the surface of the liver cells that researchers say may be targeted by the immune system and possibly cause autoimmune hepatitis*, as “there [have] been case reports on individuals who developed autoimmune hepatitis after BNT162b2 vaccination.”









Intracellular Reverse Transcription of Pfizer BioNTech COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine BNT162b2 In Vitro in Human Liver Cell Line


Preclinical studies of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine BNT162b2, developed by Pfizer and BioNTech, showed reversible hepatic effects in animals that received the BNT162b2 injection. Furthermore, a recent study showed that SARS-CoV-2 RNA can be reverse-transcribed and integrated into the genome of human...




www.mdpi.com






Spike proteins may circulate in the body after an infection or injection with a COVID-19 vaccine. It was assumed that the vaccine’s spike protein would remain mostly at the injection site and last up to several weeks like other proteins produced in the body. But studies are showing that is not the case.

The Japanese regulatory agency’s biodistribution study (pdf) of the Pfizer vaccine showed that some of the mRNAs moved from the injection site and through the bloodstream, and were found in various organs such as the liver, spleen, adrenal glands, and ovaries of rats 48 hours following injection.









Pfizer report_Japanese government.pdf


SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccine (BNT162, PF-07302048) 2.6.4 薬物動態試験の概要文. マスキング箇所：調整中. TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................................... 1 LIST OF FIGURES...




www.docdroid.net






*In a different study, the spike proteins made in the body after receiving a Pfizer COVID-19 shot have been found on tiny membrane vesicles called exosomes*—that mediate cell-to-cell communication by transferring genetic materials to other cells—for at least four months after the second vaccine dose.

The persistence of the spike protein in the body “raises the prospect of sustained inflammation within and damage to organs which express the spike protein,” according to experts at Doctors for COVID Ethics, an organization consisting of physicians and scientists “seeking to uphold medical ethics, patient safety, and human rights in response to COVID-19.”

“As long as the spike protein can be detected on cell-derived membrane vesicles, the immune system will be attacking the cells that release these vesicles,” they said.

Dr. Peter McCullough, an internist, cardiologist, and epidemiologist, wrote on Twitter that the Swedish study’s findings have “enormous implications of permanent chromosomal change and long-term constitutive spike synthesis driving the pathogenesis of a whole new genre of chronic disease.”









Cutting Edge: Circulating Exosomes with COVID Spike Protein Are Induced by BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) Vaccination prior to Development of Antibodies: A Novel Mechanism for Immune Activation by mRNA Vaccines - PubMed


Severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes severe acute respiratory syndrome. mRNA vaccines directed at the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein resulted in development of Abs and protective immunity. To determine the mechanism, we analyzed the kinetics of induction of circulating...




pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


----------



## gregfisk

Well, the articles you linked to tell us that the vaccinations do a great job at protecting the people who have not gotten the virus. And that the second dose may not be that helpful to people who have had Covid in the past. It sounds to me like the vaccinations have been extremely successful at keeping us relatively safe. And if you were lucky enough to survive Covid in the first place a second dose may not be needed. Good for those fortunate people.


----------



## MarcelNL

What about Germany? I see infection rates that are high but ICU occupancy going down ever since December making up roughly 2000 patients, with 18000 regular patients and 4000 free beds, surely there is room to ease up on restrictions?


----------



## daveb

In the states, Covid has been cured and restrictions have been lifted. Mid-Terms.


----------



## KingShapton

MarcelNL said:


> What about Germany? I see infection rates that are high but ICU occupancy going down ever since December making up roughly 2000 patients, with 18000 regular patients and 4000 free beds, surely there is room to ease up on restrictions?


Almost all restrictions should be lifted by March 20th, I think with the exception of the mask requirement on public transport.

But I think that's a colossal mistake!

The numbers (incidence) have been rising again for about 6 days, the omicron subvariant BA.2 is spreading more and more in Germany and this is even more contagious.

In addition, I no longer trust the official numbers. For weeks now, PCR tests have only been carried out on members of certain professional groups. And only the positive PCR tests are counted for the official numbers.

That's a joke when you test a lot less, of course then the numbers go down on paper. The fact that the numbers are now rising again scares me.

The first experts in Germany (those who were mostly right in the past) are already warning of another corona wave in summer... and when I look at the people on the streets in public life, hardly anyone seems to be interested .


I'm also tired of these restrictions and precautionary measures, but around 300 people still die from Corona every day in Germany. That's 300 people too many! Only that hardly anyone here seems to be interested. This is sad and scary!

BTW, all the restrictions and measures we had in Germany have mostly only existed on paper in the last few months (with the exception of clubs, discos and bars). In reality, at least in the city I live in, very few have followed it and compliance has been virtually unchecked. And of course violations were not punished... And unfortunately it is in the nature of people when they notice that something is not punished and that there are no consequences for violating they're doing it more and more.


----------



## MarcelNL

I hear you, there is some light though; the latest variants are highly contagious but do not carry that much punch IF (and that is an important one) you are vaccinated. We never imposed any restrictions in flu season, or common colds raging around...we'll have to get back to 'normal' at some point.

What you describe is human behaviour we see lots more in the Netherlands (just notice how speed limits are far better observed in Germany vs Netherlands)

@daveb Great to see that mid-terms cured it, sounds a bit as if a 'Tanzania' was pulled?


----------



## spaceconvoy

daveb said:


> In the states, Covid has been cured and restrictions have been lifted. Mid-Terms.


So all the other countries lifting restrictions at the same time must mean they're in on it too. A vast conspiracy just to benefit one American political party


----------



## natto

KingShapton said:


> I'm also tired of these restrictions and precautionary measures, but around 300 people still die from Corona every day in Germany. That's 300 people too many! Only that hardly anyone here seems to be interested. This is sad and scary!


What would be the best way to deal with covid? Vulnerable people need more protection. Others become sick with their meals on wheels and buying online, sitting in their home office. A lot of reasonable people are tired. 

Germany saved the vaccine licenses. Of course we would like the whole world to be vaccinated, to make our life better. Weighing our income against a better life, we took the income. 

Watching personal advatage and the flow of money might show the shape of things to come.


----------



## Jovidah

daveb said:


> In the states, Covid has been cured and restrictions have been lifted. Mid-Terms.


Not really. Numbers are going down across the board (as infection is largely seasonal, and at this point immunity has become rather widespread through a combination of natural infection and vaccination). Then there's the "invasion-we-are-not-allowed-to-speak-of" and its economical rammifications... that provides a certain 'pick your battles' impetus to policy.


----------



## KingShapton

natto said:


> Weighing our income against a better life, we took the income.


If I can make a decision for myself, I will choose a better life! But that's only my personal point of view..


----------



## MarcelNL

To me it seems we have reached the point where restrictions are not helping that much (seeing that the infection rates went through the roof even in a serious lock down) and the impact of them becomes something serious we need to deal with (just look at mental health effects in kids). We'll need to protect the vulnerable where we can yet they too need to weigh their choices/risk/benefit.


----------



## KingShapton

MarcelNL said:


> To me it seems we have reached the point where restrictions are not helping that much (seeing that the infection rates went through the roof even in a serious lock down) and the impact of them becomes something serious we need to deal with (just look at mental health effects in kids). We'll need to protect the vulnerable where we can yet they too need to weigh their choices/risk/benefit.


Basically I agree with you.

But from my point of view there is an understandable reason why the infection numbers go through the roof even during a strict lockdown...


When the strict lockdown is only on paper but in reality people don't give a **** (based on my own observations) and aren't even willing or able to wear a mask properly on public transport, or just despite it simply not wearing a mask at all - then the lockdown makes no sense, simply because of the unreasonableness and carelessness of some people.

And if you think this through to the end, the restrictions are only lifted because people don't stick to them anyway and they can't be enforced.

Without that, the number of infections would not have gone through the roof despite the lockdown, I am firmly convinced of that!


----------



## Jovidah

Yeah compliance has been getting more and more lackluster over time. I've seen the same here. People are partially fed up, partially no longer afraid. People are essentially 'done with covid'.... even when covid might not be done with people. It's sad but somewhat understandable. There's no easy solution to it either.
I agree that when compliance is so limited at some point it's just not worth the political capital anymore to try and maintain them.


----------



## Luftmensch

daveb said:


> In the states, Covid has been cured and restrictions have been lifted. Mid-Terms.





spaceconvoy said:


> So all the other countries lifting restrictions at the same time must mean they're in on it too. A vast conspiracy just to benefit one American political party



By that logic, Australia has been helping the American mid-terms since last November!!! Meanwhile... we have our own 'end-of-terms'.

Cultural exchange time. In Australia, Governments sit for three years. There are a set of rules determining when elections must be held. BUT! The election date is generally not known until the Prime Minister calls an election. By law the next election must be held before 21st May 2022.

It is one of those surreal things. It is like walking into a dinner party where the room is waist deep in sh!t and everybody is only talking about how great the salmon mousse is. It is blindingly obvious an election is going to happen but it hasnt been announced and the Government is not talking about it. Remember; it is required in two months time. Instead we are having a weird shadow election campaign...

I'd say Australians have been largely compliant with Covid rules... But they have been chipped away since the end of last year. Federal and state Governments did not want to ruin the summer holidays - including the Christmas and New Year celebrations. Omicron spread faster than it had to. By the end of February... most rules were relaxed. Face masks are only required on public transport, hospitals and aged-care facilities. Now try finding me a mask wearer under 50 in public...

In the hierarchy of terror... Covid has all but disappeared. The "invasion-we-are-not-allowed-to-speak-of" has dominated the recent news cycle... Even that has recently been trumped by torrential rain and flooding on the east coast...


----------



## gregfisk

spaceconvoy said:


> So all the other countries lifting restrictions at the same time must mean they're in on it too. A vast conspiracy just to benefit one American political party



Yes, this is the mentality that we get to put up with in the states. Just like the politicians that said Covid would vanish once the elections were over. We all see how that turned out.


----------



## spaceconvoy

gregfisk said:


> Yes, this is the mentality that we get to put up with in the states. Just like the politicians that said Covid would vanish once the elections were over. We all see how that turned out.


Exactly. The details of the accusations are a moving target, tailored to fit the same baseless conspiracy theory. No hard evidence is ever supplied, beyond coincidences in timing among big events. And their old theories are promptly forgotten once proven wrong.

It's very similar to a doomsday cult. "The world will end in six months!" Then six months later, "actually, last night's lotto numbers prove armageddon is coming in eight months." Then eight months later...


----------



## Michi

The US is going to hit 1,000,000 deaths tomorrow. And people are still dying at a rate of 1,200-1,300 every day. That's not exactly what I would call "over".


----------



## MarcelNL

Michi said:


> The US is going to hit 1,000,000 deaths tomorrow. And people are still dying at a rate of 1,200-1,300 every day. That's not exactly what I would call "over".


that is indeed what I also noticed, but hey in Tanzania they denounced Covid exists and their president did not die of it..


----------



## KingShapton

I just read the current Covid numbers for Germany...
Apparently the sixth wave is just starting to drive...

The infection numbers have been rising again for 8 days and in the last 24 hours we have had a new record number of new infections here...over 260,000. This is the highest value in Germany since the beginning of the pandemic...

Definitely not "over"!


----------



## MarcelNL

infection numbers is one thing, but folks getting severily ill is what is more important;

_








Corona: Sieben-Tage-Inzidenz liegt wieder über 1300


Die Omikron-Welle nimmt erneut Fahrt auf: Die Sieben-Tage-Inzidenz ist den siebten Tag in Folge gestiegen, sie liegt nun bei 1319,0. Binnen eines Tages wurden 215.854 Neuinfektionen registriert.




www.tagesschau.de




*Höhepunkt der Omikron-Welle sollte überwunden sein*
Die Zahl der in Kliniken gekommenen Corona-infizierten Patienten je 100.000 Einwohner innerhalb von sieben Tagen gab das RKI am Montag mit* 6,06 an (Sonntag mit 6,24). *Darunter sind auch viele Menschen mit positivem Corona-Test, die eine andere Haupterkrankung haben. Neuere Zahlen lagen zunächst nicht vor. *Die Zahl der Intensivpatienten mit dem Virus in Krankenhäusern lag am Dienstag bei 2121*. Die Zahl der Genesenen gab das RKI mit 12.753.700 an. Die Zahl der Menschen, die an oder unter Beteiligung einer nachgewiesenen Infektion mit Sars-CoV-2 gestorben sind, stieg auf 124.764._


----------



## KingShapton

MarcelNL said:


> infection numbers is one thing, but folks getting severily ill is what is more important;
> 
> _
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Corona: Sieben-Tage-Inzidenz liegt wieder über 1300
> 
> 
> Die Omikron-Welle nimmt erneut Fahrt auf: Die Sieben-Tage-Inzidenz ist den siebten Tag in Folge gestiegen, sie liegt nun bei 1319,0. Binnen eines Tages wurden 215.854 Neuinfektionen registriert.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tagesschau.de
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Höhepunkt der Omikron-Welle sollte überwunden sein*
> Die Zahl der in Kliniken gekommenen Corona-infizierten Patienten je 100.000 Einwohner innerhalb von sieben Tagen gab das RKI am Montag mit* 6,06 an (Sonntag mit 6,24). *Darunter sind auch viele Menschen mit positivem Corona-Test, die eine andere Haupterkrankung haben. Neuere Zahlen lagen zunächst nicht vor. *Die Zahl der Intensivpatienten mit dem Virus in Krankenhäusern lag am Dienstag bei 2121*. Die Zahl der Genesenen gab das RKI mit 12.753.700 an. Die Zahl der Menschen, die an oder unter Beteiligung einer nachgewiesenen Infektion mit Sars-CoV-2 gestorben sind, stieg auf 124.764._


I agree with you completely, but the additional Covid patients in the hospitals also mean that "plannable" operations are postponed. "Plannable" operations also include heart operations or cancer treatments. Partly at the price that the affected patients have to accept a significant deterioration in their condition. Or, in the case of a cancer patient, the postponed surgery loses several years of his remaining lifespan...unnecessarily.


----------



## Jovidah

KingShapton said:


> I just read the current Covid numbers for Germany...
> Apparently the sixth wave is just starting to drive...
> 
> The infection numbers have been rising again for 8 days and in the last 24 hours we have had a new record number of new infections here...over 260,000. This is the highest value in Germany since the beginning of the pandemic...
> 
> Definitely not "over"!


To be fair though, it seems like hospitalization and deaths are actually going down as omnicron becomes dominant... it's a lot less lethal it seems.

At this point at least over here (but I doubt it's very different in Germany) most people have a resisitance of some sort - whether by vaccine or natural infection. 

Also keep in mind you're probably seeing a carneval bump...


----------



## KingShapton

Jovidah said:


> To be fair though, it seems like hospitalization and deaths are actually going down as omnicron becomes dominant... it's a lot less lethal it seems.


That's the only good thing about this variant


----------



## tcmx3

fwiw I actually agree with @daveb that we are seeing politically motivated reasoning around covid. I know we disagree on the causes but oh well.

at the risk of getting myself in trouble, the US is showing what an utter failure the neoliberal R/D 'consensus' really is, the same smug one that values unity and centrism for their own sakes, is at actually doing anything useful for its populace. neither this nor the last administration are driven by anything like empiricism, but instead either animus (former) or believing that they are irl The West Wing (current). 

again, the handling of COVID by the US has been an utter failure. a failure to properly evaluate risk, a failure to effectively utilize existing tools (see Psaki's absolute insane/offensive response to the first time she was asked about free tests, acting as if it were the stupidest question ever asked), and above all else a failure to see the value of human life over the desire of the politically powerful to return to normal.

we did a better job controlling diseases before we had a real germ theory than we've handled COVID in the US IMO


----------



## EricEricEric

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has removed tens of thousands of deaths linked to COVID-19, including nearly a quarter of deaths it had listed in those under 18 years old.

The health agency quietly made the change on its data tracker website on March 15.

“Data on deaths were adjusted after resolving a coding logic error. This resulted in decreased death counts across all demographic categories,” the CDC says on the site.

The update saw the CDC cut 416 deaths among children and over 71,000 elsewhere, arriving at a total of just under 780,000.

“The update is an improvement, but it’s at least the third correction to this data, and still does not solve the issue. It just highlights that people have been using a flawed source of data when discussing kids and COVID,” Krohnert told The Epoch Times in an email.

The deaths in the tally include people who died WITH COVID-19 and people who died FROM COVID-19, a CDC spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email in January.

Some of the deaths listed by the CDC appear unrelated to COVID-19. For instance, several deaths have drowning as a cause of death; several others were listed as being from a gun discharge, according to an Epoch Times review of the death codes.









CDC Removes 24 Percent of Child COVID-19 Deaths, Thousands of Others


The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has removed tens of thousands of deaths linked to COVID-19, ...




m.theepochtimes.com


----------



## tcmx3

EricEricEric said:


> The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has removed tens of thousands of deaths linked to COVID-19, including nearly a quarter of deaths it had listed in those under 18 years old.
> 
> The health agency quietly made the change on its data tracker website on March 15.



why not just post an actual reliable source?

this one is actually true: reuters: CDC reports fewer COVID-19 pediatric deaths after data correction

also so much for "quietly":

*The health agency, in a statement to Reuters*


----------



## Michi

Here is the Wikipedia entry for the Epoch Times.


----------



## gregfisk

Epoch is a right wing propaganda newspaper and is highly biased. However, I don’t really see a gotcha here since why does it really matter in the big picture?


----------



## tcmx3

gregfisk said:


> Epoch is a right wing propaganda newspaper and is highly biased. However, I don’t really see a gotcha here since why does it really matter in the big picture?



why would you trust someone gullible enough to get their news from that source about anything?


----------



## MarcelNL

What I fail to understand is how it can be that all these desinformation spreaders always do the same thing; just refute the data that is out there by twisting backgrounds or making the data suspect in ridiculously simplistic manners. How can it be that clearly ridiculous statements are so effective and remain effective?


----------



## tcmx3

MarcelNL said:


> What I fail to understand is how it can be that all these desinformation spreaders always do the same thing; just refute the data that is out there by twisting backgrounds or making the data suspect in ridiculously simplistic manners. How can it be that clearly ridiculous statements are so effective and remain effective?



combination of confirmation bias, innumeracy, etc.

in this very thread you have seen it pointed out to people that their understanding of how statistics works is fundamentally flawed or even non-existent, and do they even engage? no, they immediately default to "I just know that Im right". of course such people are susceptible to that stuff.

furthermore, a lot of the people here who are pushing this stuff are anti-intellectual. there's always a reason not to defer to the people who actually know what they're doing. "you dont know what it's like in the real world" "ivory tower" "it's a conspiracy" etc. because it would be a real shame for some people who have never been told in their whole lives to shut up to actually listen to anyone else 

oh let's also throw in a heaping helping of people having ZERO consideration for the consequences of their actions. if you even try to point out that there might be some consequences people will absolutely melt down. same as the flipper thread; some people not only want to flip but they want people to praise them rather than say "oh this person is a flipper". when you have no consideration for what might happen if you're wrong, it all of a sudden removes any burden on you for being correct. so you just do whatever and shrug when it goes bad, like the person earlier who posted articles from a known white supremacist "source".

humans are really susceptible to this stuff. to the degree that even people with lots of training and expertise sometimes get got. it's happened to me too


----------



## daveb

MarcelNL said:


> What I fail to understand is how it can be that all these desinformation spreaders always do the same thing; just refute the data that is out there by twisting backgrounds or making the data suspect in ridiculously simplistic manners. How can it be that clearly ridiculous statements are so effective and remain effective?



Which side are you talking about?


----------



## spaceconvoy

MarcelNL said:


> What I fail to understand is how it can be that all these desinformation spreaders always do the same thing; just refute the data that is out there by twisting backgrounds or making the data suspect in ridiculously simplistic manners. How can it be that clearly ridiculous statements are so effective and remain effective?






Humans are animals, and logic is just another tool we created. We will deploy any argument that makes ourselves feel safe, happy, or secure about our place in society. Motivated reasoning will always defeat the truth.

You're doing it now too, with your desire to believe that you live in a society that values the truth. I used to be idealistic too, and wanted to believe this for a long time. In 2003 I remember thinking, "this can't be happening, it must be an evil cabal of politicians." Then in 2008, "this can't be happening, the economic elite must be rotten." And in 2016, "ok, maybe a significant fraction of society is garbage."

But emerging from two years of our collective response to this virus it's hard not to become completely cynical. You can see it in my own responses in this thread. In the beginning I engaged with other people's arguments, now I just occasionally point out the futility of the whole endeavor.

Society is an illusion. We are surrounded by animals, because that's what we are.


----------



## KingShapton

spaceconvoy said:


> Society is an illusion. We are surrounded by animals, because that's what we are.


Sad but true


----------



## MarcelNL

daveb said:


> Which side are you talking about?


Sides, I also fail to understand why there should be sides in any of this?
Does a virus take sides, is it true for one side and not for the other...do folks on one side get ill or even die and not on the other?

sorry you lost me there.


----------



## MarcelNL

@spaceconvoy 
That answer showing in the picture is truly enlightened!


----------



## gregfisk

tcmx3 said:


> why would you trust someone gullible enough to get their news from that source about anything?



I DON’T


----------



## tcmx3

gregfisk said:


> I DON’T



but the reason it matters is because in this "free marketplace of ideas" what actually happens is awful takes get equivocated to reality.

because, you know, "both sides" need to be heard. for some reason.


----------



## gregfisk

tcmx3 said:


> but the reason it matters is because in this "free marketplace of ideas" what actually happens is awful takes get equivocated to reality.
> 
> because, you know, "both sides" need to be heard. for some reason.


Perhaps you missed my point? I’m simply saying that after So many people dying, if the data isn’t perfect it doesn’t really matter. The fact is way too many people died and much of that was due to political bias, ignorance and misinformation.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

we other animals say not enough human's died.


----------



## Barmoley

tcmx3 said:


> but the reason it matters is because in this "free marketplace of ideas" what actually happens is awful takes get equivocated to reality.
> 
> because, you know, "both sides" need to be heard. for some reason.


The reason being that as soon as you decide that only one side has the “truth“ and that you, or your side is the only one that can be heard you‘ve committed the same sins you accuse others of making. All sides need to have an ability to be heard, wrong or right. We don’t want a society where a small group decides everything for everyone and no one questions anything. We want to be able to question even if wrong and misinformed, the ability to question and disagree should be there. It is less efficient and at times dangerous, but the alternative is much worse.


----------



## gregfisk

Keith Sinclair said:


> ‍❄ we other animals say not enough human's died.


You make a compelling argument Keith. We are definitely the problem. Perhaps someday us humans will realize that and change our ways, but I doubt it. Too many of us think we have some sort of holy right to do as we please and every other animal on the planet is here for us to do as we please. It’s one of the most repulsive qualities of people who believe... I’ve said enough and I’ll leave it at that.


----------



## MarcelNL

Barmoley said:


> The reason being that as soon as you decide that only one side has the “truth“ and that you, or your side is the only one that can be heard you‘ve committed the same sins you accuse others of making. All sides need to have an ability to be heard, wrong or right. We don’t want a society where a small group decides everything for everyone and no one questions anything. We want to be able to question even if wrong and misinformed, the ability to question and disagree should be there. It is less efficient and at times dangerous, but the alternative is much worse.



The ability to question is one thing, I do not see ANY hurdle for doing so...dismissing solid information at face value or out of ignorance/dogma is something else and that is where I see the problem. It's not as if both sides at the 'opponents' table bring arguments of the same scientific weight to the discussion.
A German saying goes "in der Beschraenkung zeigt sich der Meister'...something along' through limitation/holding back the master reveals himself' or 'the master shows himself in the limitation' (second one is the translation I found, I do not think it is close...


----------



## tcmx3

Barmoley said:


> The reason being that as soon as you decide that only one side has the “truth“ and that you, or your side is the only one that can be heard you‘ve committed the same sins you accuse others of making. All sides need to have an ability to be heard, wrong or right. *We don’t want a society where a small group decides everything for everyone and no one questions anything*. We want to be able to question even if wrong and misinformed, the ability to question and disagree should be there. It is less efficient and at times dangerous, but the alternative is much worse.



um excuse me have you ever looked at a picture of the house of representatives?

also Im so tired of people "just asking questions". you're not asking a question if you aren't interested in listening to the answer.

the same people have been asking the same "questions" for two years. 

and in this case, yes one side has a significantly greater claim to the truth than the other. the end.


----------



## Michi

MarcelNL said:


> A German saying goes "in der Beschraenkung zeigt sich der Meister'


(Self-)Restraint exemplifies mastery.


----------



## Barmoley

MarcelNL said:


> The ability to question is one thing, I do not see ANY hurdle for doing so...dismissing solid information at face value or out of ignorance/dogma is something else and that is where I see the problem. It's not as if both sides at the 'opponents' table bring arguments of the same scientific weight to the discussion.
> A German saying goes "in der Beschraenkung zeigt sich der Meister'...something along' through limitation/holding back the master reveals himself' or 'the master shows himself in the limitation' (second one is the translation I found, I do not think it is close...


I agree that just because everyone has opinions doesn’t mean that these opinions are of equal value. They are not. Opinions of experts on the subject are a lot more valuable and should be followed. This is not what I am saying. I am against silencing critique or not allowing questioning of experts. Dismissing solid information out of dogma is a problem, but if the alternative is to silence the ignorant then I’d rather they kept asking their questions. It is annoying and tiresome, but this is the price we pay for the ability to be able to do this. The alternative is worse, the proof is out there, right now. It is just too easy to go from silencing people from talking about the subjects they are not qualified to talk about to silencing them on other subjects as well. Unfortunately, experts and people in power have a habit of deciding that they know what is best for all and continuing with this line of reasoning even when they cross outside of their areas of expertise.


----------



## daveb

tcmx3 said:


> but the reason it matters is because in this "free marketplace of ideas" what actually happens is awful takes get equivocated to reality.
> 
> because, you know, "both sides" need to be heard. for some reason.



Interesting assertion, especially this week as we "celebrate" the two year anniversary of: 15 days of masking to flatten the curve.

What I don't understand is how anyone can not be a skeptic after this two year goat phuck.


----------



## Hockey3081

Barmoley said:


> The reason being that as soon as you decide that only one side has the “truth“ and that you, or your side is the only one that can be heard you‘ve committed the same sins you accuse others of making. All sides need to have an ability to be heard, wrong or right. We don’t want a society where a small group decides everything for everyone and no one questions anything. We want to be able to question even if wrong and misinformed, the ability to question and disagree should be there. It is less efficient and at times dangerous, but the alternative is much worse.



This “both sides” need to be heard argument is so tiresome. By this logic, should legislating bodies have a pedophile caucus to impart their thoughts on public safety laws? I know my example is extreme but generally speaking, this “questioning if wrong or misinformed” no longer works in 2022 because when given actual facts (science, reliable sources), the other side does not concede but rather doubles down and/or cites complete nonsense because they were able to find it using Google or Facebook, or as @tcmx3 stated, it’s how they feel. If this was limited to subjective topics, which there are plenty of, I’m right there with you. But pertinent to this thread, you either understand/believe in science and mathematics or you don’t.


----------



## ian

Barmoley said:


> I agree that just because everyone has opinions doesn’t mean that these opinions are of equal value. They are not. Opinions of experts on the subject are a lot more valuable and should be followed. This is not what I am saying. I am against silencing critique or not allowing questioning of experts. Dismissing solid information out of dogma is a problem, but if the alternative is to silence the ignorant then I’d rather they kept asking their questions. It is annoying and tiresome, but this is the price we pay for the ability to be able to do this. The alternative is worse, the proof is out there, right now. It is just too easy to go from silencing people from talking about the subjects they are not qualified to talk about to silencing them on other subjects as well. Unfortunately, experts and people in power have a habit of deciding that they know what is best for all and continuing with this line of reasoning even when they cross outside of their areas of expertise.



I'm not sure this is really a free speech issue. Or maybe it is, but one should view it on a spectrum, starting with the uncontroversial "allowing individuals to speak their minds freely" and continuing to "allowing organizations to amplify false narratives to the point where a significant percentage of the country believes them." Anyway, it's not like I have any idea how to deal with this. I'm just a hack whining on the internet.



daveb said:


> Interesting assertion, especially this week as we "celebrate" the two year anniversary of: 15 days of masking to flatten the curve.
> 
> What I don't understand is how anyone can not be a skeptic after this two year goat phuck.



I'd imagine most people here are unsatisfied with how the pandemic was managed, they just have varying ideas about what would have been a better way to respond to it.


----------



## MarcelNL

daveb said:


> Interesting assertion, especially this week as we "celebrate" the two year anniversary of: 15 days of masking to flatten the curve.
> 
> What I don't understand is how anyone can not be a skeptic after this two year goat phuck.



We dealt with an unprecedented (well, in light of recent knowledge) pandemic...why is a strategy that seemed reasonable at the start of the pandemic now something strange? hindsight is always 20:20


----------



## Barmoley

ian said:


> I'm not sure this is really a free speech issue. Or maybe it is, but one should view it on a spectrum, starting with the uncontroversial "allowing individuals to speak their minds freely" and continuing to "allowing organizations to amplify false narratives to the point where a significant percentage of the country believes them." Anyway, it's not like I have any idea how to deal with this. I'm just a hack whining on the internet.
> 
> 
> 
> I'd imagine most people here are unsatisfied with how the pandemic was managed, they just have varying ideas about what would have been a better way to respond to it.


Free speech only exists between government and the populace, so it is not a free speech argument. We are not allowed to talk about all sorts of things. I am against all false narratives for political reasons or some agenda, but this is the world we live in. Like you, I don’t know what to do about it. It is becoming more and more difficult to figure out which organization or which experts to listen to. Everyone is an expert these days just because they read something on the web somewhere.


----------



## Barmoley

Hockey3081 said:


> This “both sides” need to be heard argument is so tiresome. By this logic, should legislating bodies have a pedophile caucus to impart their thoughts on public safety laws? I know my example is extreme but generally speaking, this “questioning if wrong or misinformed” no longer works in 2022 because when given actual facts (science, reliable sources), the other side does not concede but rather doubles down and/or cites complete nonsense because they were able to find it using Google or Facebook, or as @tcmx3 stated, it’s how they feel. If this was limited to subjective topics, which there are plenty of, I’m right there with you. But pertinent to this thread, you either understand/believe in science and mathematics or you don’t.


We generally don’t allow criminals to participate in any discussions legislation or otherwise.


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> Interesting assertion, especially this week as we "celebrate" the two year anniversary of: 15 days of masking to flatten the curve.
> 
> What I don't understand is how anyone can not be a skeptic after this two year goat phuck.



please see my above post about people who dont have an understanding of how these things are measured and should be listening, but go into absolute meltdown mode if you point that out, because the inspiration for that post is you.

there is significant evidence around masking. it outweighs your surface level understanding of the epidemiology of masking.


----------



## Michi




----------



## Luftmensch

Come now... Honestly....

Nobody is being censored. By and large that is a paranoid beat up. People are generally allowed to (and do) spread whatever nonsense garbage they want. Including misogynistic, racist and homophobic drivel.

If you believe in informed democratic processes, it isn't so hard to arrive at the conclusion that debate in Government should be predicated on fact (or our best understanding of it). The only censorship that really should happen is at a political level and in mainstream media (tech giants have a lot to answer for). The more influence these bodies have, the more civic duty they have to keeping an informed discussion. If an individual wants to dive into some dank well of misinformation, let them follow their own confirmation biases.

Factual or empirical questions usually have definitive answers. These arent up for discussion (unless you are an expert in that community).
Moral problems or questions that require delicate trade-offs invite anybody to have an opinion - if they are honest about the discussion.

I have said this several times before. The difference between saying:

"climate change _does not_ exist, so we dont need to do anything about it"
"climate change _does_ exist... but I dont believe we should do anything about it"
is profound. People who say the first should be shot out of a cannon into the sun. People who say the second will get my respect for being honest but will disappoint me for lacking a sense of responsibility.


I would be pleased as punch if democratic governments implemented an integrity body that monitored political debate. If any representative is found to be spreading information that is known to be false they should be forced to redact their statements. If they dont, or they continue to spread misinformation, they should be thrown out of government.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Con Artist have always existed in the human condition. The internet has brought out them in droves trying to separate you from your money. 

They have no morality just the old saying there is a sucker born every minute. 

Alex Jones made plenty money with his media empire & selling snake oil diet pills estimated pulling in 10 million a year spouting insane conspiracy theories. When the parents who were targeted whose kids were killed in elementary school getting threats they sued Jones. When a guy was caught with a rifle who was going to a pizza place were Hillary Clinton 
was sex fiend with little children. Only then did platforms remove Jones because he had large following they were making money.


----------



## Jovidah

Barmoley said:


> The reason being that as soon as you decide that only one side has the “truth“ and that you, or your side is the only one that can be heard you‘ve committed the same sins you accuse others of making. All sides need to have an ability to be heard, wrong or right. We don’t want a society where a small group decides everything for everyone and no one questions anything. We want to be able to question even if wrong and misinformed, the ability to question and disagree should be there. It is less efficient and at times dangerous, but the alternative is much worse.


There's two problems with this.

One: it creates a false sense of equivalency. Media has done a problematic job of reinforcing this by 'showing both sides' on a lot of issues even when there is no equivalency. Can you imagine if this was done during the second world war? Having a pro-democracy and a pro-Hitler person on a show because it would be too 'biased' to only show one side? Not all arguments are equally valid.

Another problem is that a lot of the 'arguments' are blatant propaganda pushed by foreign powers to destabilize other countries and hurt their interests. What better way to stop a superpower in its tracks than have it struggling with a disease and a million death for years because you manage to convince a significant part of the population that their own government is trying to poison them and stop them from taking preventice medicine? Divide and conquer...
Who do you think funded most of the advertisement pushing Brexit? Who do you think funded most groups agitating against shale gas extraction in Eastern Europe? Who do you think supports most of the polarizing 'nationalist' politicians in Europe that seem to have an agenda focused mostly on dividing their countries and undermining the EU?
Why do you think Tucker Carlson and other Putin-puppets sound such an aweful lot like Kremlin propaganda outlets?

People need to wake up to the fact that freedom of speech has been exploited for over a decade to fight an information war to undermine western interests.... the whole misinformation campaign around COVID is just another chapter.


----------



## Jovidah

Luftmensch said:


> I have said this several times before. The difference between saying:
> 
> "climate change _does not_ exist, so we dont need to do anything about it"
> "climate change _does_ exist... but I dont believe we should do anything about it"
> is profound. People who say the first should be shot out of a cannon into the sun. People who say the second will get my respect for being honest but will disappoint me for lacking a sense of responsibility.


Part of the reason the whole climate change debate gets muddied (deliberately) is that many parties simply have no interest in adressing this problem. For fossile fuel energy companies it's basically a giant threat to their bottom line. Similarly with countries relying heavily on on fossil fuel exports for their national income; for them 'reducing CO2' is basically a financial death sentence.
Then you have countries like Russia who actually stand to gain significantly from climate change. It means thawing out the northern route, making some harbors ice-free year round, thawing out permafrost turning some useless land into arable or otherwise exploitable land, changing the average temperature in a way that's likely to increase their total agricultural production, etc.
Contrary to popular belief we do _not_ all share the same interests when it comes to climate change.


----------



## Luftmensch

Jovidah said:


> Part of the reason the whole climate change debate gets muddied (deliberately) is that many parties simply have no interest in adressing this problem. For fossile fuel energy companies it's basically a giant threat to their bottom line. Similarly with countries relying heavily on on fossil fuel exports for their national income; for them 'reducing CO2' is basically a financial death sentence.
> Then you have countries like Russia who actually stand to gain significantly from climate change. It means thawing out the northern route, making some harbors ice-free year round, thawing out permafrost turning some useless land into arable or otherwise exploitable land, changing the average temperature in a way that's likely to increase their total agricultural production, etc.
> Contrary to popular belief we do _not_ all share the same interests when it comes to climate change.



I agree with you! But this is the crux of my point.

Society ought to debate about how it should _respond_ to information... not stage a debate _about_ the information itself. 

Of course this is an oversimplification... Information needs to be verified. For big topics like climate change and epidemiology, new information is reviewed by appropriately qualified experts. If any published information is wrong, it self-corrects over time. We have had decades of scientific consensus on climate change. This is why I use it as an example. It doesn't matter that we don't all share the same interests... we have no option but to live with the same _facts_ - whether we recognise them or not.

Fossil fuel companies? Countries relying on fossil fuel exports for their national income (I live in one)? Countries who stand to gain significantly from climate change? It is all the same... When asked about climate change, they are free to be honest about their motives and how they want to respond. Let the public judge them on their intentions. It is not an acceptable position choose an alternate set of 'facts'. Or hide their agenda behind misinformation.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Some scientist say that adaptation to climate change is part of the reason hominid's brain size increased. As planet keep going in & out of ice ages. Between last two ice ages oahu's sea level was 25' above present. You can see old weathered coral reef at Kaena point. Couple weeks ago when hiked out there had much improved since I was last there years ago. Some stupid high school boys from Punahou had killed quit a few Albatross cut off their feet 
& talked on social media. They also destroyed many eggs. Now there is a ranger on duty to keep people from bothering nesting sites or getting to close to endangered Hawaiian Monk seals. They put up nice signage explaining history of the place, even Geology that I love. 



















Couple old animal lovers


----------



## tcmx3

Jen "actually doing anything useful is the most laughable idea I've ever heard" Psaki has contracted covid 19.

if only she worked for some kind of group of people who could do something to help address covid 19 instead of hammering every day on how they're not the last people and how everything is fine get back to work you drones. maybe we could call it a ministry? or an administration perhaps?


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## MarcelNL

I fail to understand the meaning, is there any connection between someone getting Covid like 98% of the population by now has done and ANY administration anywhere ?


----------



## gregfisk

I don’t understand what’s trying to be said either. Jen is by far the best I have ever seen and I’ve been on this earth a long time


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## tcmx3

MarcelNL said:


> I fail to understand the meaning, is there any connection between someone getting Covid like 98% of the population by now has done and ANY administration anywhere ?



there is if the administration is acting like COVID is over and the priority is to get people back to "normal".

covid spending has been so deprioritized there is likely no purchase of 4th doses, there is no money for tests, the student loan repayment moratorium is going to expire, not even a whisper of another stimulus payment, no mask mandate...

might as well hoist a "mission accomplished" sign.

what Im trying to say is pretending this is over doesnt make it over. irrespective of what the Biden administration is signalling.


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## daveb

tcmx3 said:


> might as well hoist a "mission accomplished" sign.



Never known you for irony or humor but this tickled the piss out of me.



tcmx3 said:


> there is if the administration is acting like COVID is over and the priority is to get people back to voting for dems in the mid-terms.



FTFY


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> Never known you for irony or humor but this tickled the piss out of me.
> 
> 
> 
> FTFY



pretty sure at the 40% approval rating they just hit today suggests that people understand the COVID response of this administration is dogshit, too.

two administrations in a row are gonna go down in flames because they can't even do basic stuff right. frankly, this is embarrassing at this point. buy some tests and send them out to people. even the muppet across the water has managed that and he always looks like he's just been rained on.

also I joke all the time normally but there's a generation gap and most folks around here get mad at my jokes so I dont bother


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## MarcelNL

As a spectator my analysis would be that a 2 party system is no longer viable in a society where individualism is predominant, nobody can get anything done with a 1 seat or so 'majority' and the things they CAN get done are bound to piss off about half of the population anyhow. Adressing Covid only works if the majority of people carry the measures, clearly there is a (I'd almost say a carefully orchestrated/fed) issue with that in the US.

Let's back to Covid, fact is that anyone not yet vaccinated has no use for a 4th booster and in many places 4th boosters are only recommended for a target population.

In my country as of today all restrictions are lifted, ICU admissions are on a downward slope for weeks in a row. Spring is here and all is well.....until the next variant of interest comes along.


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## Barmoley

At some point restrictions had to be lifted as they have a cost associated with them. The administration of the US as well as most other countries had to lift restrictions as people are tired of them and demand the lift as well as refuse to follow. Omicron got many people sick and created some degree of natural immunity, so we are seeing decline of infection, thus the lift of restrictions. This was very much expected and is being done all over the world, not just the US.


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## tcmx3

yeah well the "people are tired of them and demand the lift as well as refuse to follow" is a real interesting way to decide on public policy when both delta and omicron made absolute  out of all the "what are we gonna wear masks forever?" crowd.

ba.2 could definitely do the same and if anyone gets surprised by it happening _again_ that's on them

this whole thing has been an excellent example of how human beings incorrectly assess risk on a personal level, and also are willing to limp along not solving a problem indefinitely rather than pay upfront to fix it. the nominal solution to that problem is to have a governing body which can make some rules and solve the problem quickly to reduce the overall cost. but we can't do that when the "serious", "grown up" solution is to simply stop doing even the half measures.

we should be testing like CRAZY. you need to continue testing until things are over + some period after to confirm.

unfortunately, and I really cant overstate this, the people who think we should return to normalcy are the demographic who have paid the lowest price for it. the least deaths, the least cases, the highest rates of vaccination. I have no positive interpretation for this, it really looks like people just dont give a **** as long as the people who are dying dont look like them.

also want to point out how absolutely hollow the justifications have been. as has been pointed out, somehow all of these "well what about the poor kids falling behind" or "what about the people driving ubers" etc. when you respond by suggesting any solution other than go back to normal is radio silence. which is more or less proof positive those tears are just fake


----------



## Barmoley

tcmx3 said:


> yeah well the "people are tired of them and demand the lift as well as refuse to follow" is a real interesting way to decide on public policy when both delta and omicron made absolute  out of all the "what are we gonna wear masks forever?" crowd.
> 
> ba.2 could definitely do the same and if anyone gets surprised by it happening _again_ that's on them
> 
> this whole thing has been an excellent example of how human beings incorrectly assess risk on a personal level, and also are willing to limp along not solving a problem indefinitely rather than pay upfront to fix it. the nominal solution to that problem is to have a governing body which can make some rules and solve the problem quickly to reduce the overall cost. but we can't do that when the "serious", "grown up" solution is to simply stop doing even the half measures.
> 
> we should be testing like CRAZY. you need to continue testing until things are over + some period after to confirm.
> 
> unfortunately, and I really cant overstate this, the people who think we should return to normalcy are the demographic who have paid the lowest price for it. the least deaths, the least cases, the highest rates of vaccination. I have no positive interpretation for this, it really looks like people just dont give a **** as long as the people who are dying dont look like them.
> 
> also want to point out how absolutely hollow the justifications have been. as has been pointed out, somehow all of these "well what about the poor kids falling behind" or "what about the people driving ubers" etc. when you respond by suggesting any solution other than go back to normal is radio silence. which is more or less proof positive those tears are just fake


How do you propose the government should enforce the endless tests or any of the other measures if the population refuses to test or to follow other restrictions. It must be nice to propose solutions that are not implementable in reality and then complain that people don't listens to your solutions. The administration was basically forced to lift restrictions, it is very difficult to keep them and continue to be the administration when your population disagrees with you at least in the US and other countries where population elects its government. Has any country in the world been successful in solving covid problem indefinitely? Even China, with measures that would not work in the US, has lockdowns due to case increases again. They have been successful in minimizing covid damage, but their methods would not work in the US. These methods also don't work to eliminate covid as long as you have travel or you have to do it to the whole world, which again is not possible. You keep on harping on it being a race or socio economic problem, but first the lift of restrictions and protests of restrictions are happening in many relatively homogeneous countries not just the US. Second demographics hit the worst are also asking to go back to normalcy, it is not unique to just the demographics that suffered the least. Free testing is now available in the US, you can order free home tests, or you can go and get freely tested in test centers. You as an individual can also continue wearing a mask if you so choose. You can also get a free vaccine including the booster.

Your supposed proof that people don't care because they ignore your solutions is only proof that your solutions don't work or are not implementable not that people don't care. It looks like covid is here to stay, like many other easily transmittable, infectious diseases and we will have to figure out ways to live with it.


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## riba

Just an uninformed braindump but here it seems to be omicron that is top dog. Hardly anything else left.

Thought the unspoken goal with no more restrictions was to get everybody's immune system a workout (including and especially the no-vaxers) ASAP to lower the impact of a potentially worse variant.
Seems not a bad idea as rules weren't followed anyway by too many people.


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## MarcelNL

I'm with you on the testing, yet you also need compliance (both getting tested AND self-isolating) of the population for that to have enough of an effect.

Other than that, who is 'we' and who is 'them', both are not well defined groups to me, so I struggle to follow your reasoning.

Return to normalcy indeed will only make sense with a high vaccination rate and a fair compliance to basic rules, since that is 'a local thing' I do not buy that 'the people who think we should return to normalcy' is associated with those who have paid the lowest price for it at face value? Is that in any specific country, or some folks within a country, global?


----------



## tcmx3

MarcelNL said:


> I'm with you on the testing, yet you also need compliance (both getting tested AND self-isolating) of the population for that to have enough of an effect.
> 
> Other than that, who is 'we' and who is 'them', both are not well defined groups to me, so I struggle to follow your reasoning.
> 
> Return to normalcy indeed will only make sense with a high vaccination rate and a fair compliance to basic rules, since that is 'a local thing' I do not buy that 'the people who think we should return to normalcy' is associated with those who have paid the lowest price for it at face value? Is that in any specific country, or some folks within a country, global?



in general I am only speaking about COVID in the US. in the same way you wont see me commenting on transmissibility, severity, etc. (unless it's to correct a misunderstanding around the statistical methodology, which I do know something about), you won't see me talking about other places unless it's to ask a question.

in the US especially the most powerful block of voters also happens to have the demographic group where covid deaths have been the lowest per capita by a pretty significant margin. people who dont look like them includes but is not limited to: older folks who are no longer able-bodied (who have been ravaged because of the nursing home situation), black & hispanic folks, the homeless, indigenous folks, people in prison (which in the US is a MASSIVE number), et cetera. those are the people disproportionately paying the price for the good old US cultural touchstone of "idgaf about the consequences of my actions"

the folks who ought to be doing something is a mixture of federal and state governments. but by and large, the federal government has to lead the way because that's where the money is, but also just logistically.

hope that clarifies


----------



## tcmx3

Barmoley said:


> How do you propose the government should enforce the endless tests or any of the other measures if the population refuses to test or to follow other restrictions. It must be nice to propose solutions that are not implementable in reality and then complain that people don't listens to your solutions. The administration was basically forced to lift restrictions, it is very difficult to keep them and continue to be the administration when your population disagrees with you at least in the US and other countries where population elects its government. Has any country in the world been successful in solving covid problem indefinitely? Even China, with measures that would not work in the US, has lockdowns due to case increases again. They have been successful in minimizing covid damage, but their methods would not work in the US. These methods also don't work to eliminate covid as long as you have travel or you have to do it to the whole world, which again is not possible. You keep on harping on it being a race or socio economic problem, but first the lift of restrictions and protests of restrictions are happening in many relatively homogeneous countries not just the US. Second demographics hit the worst are also asking to go back to normalcy, it is not unique to just the demographics that suffered the least. Free testing is now available in the US, you can order free home tests, or you can go and get freely tested in test centers. You as an individual can also continue wearing a mask if you so choose. You can also get a free vaccine including the booster.
> 
> Your supposed proof that people don't care because they ignore your solutions is only proof that your solutions don't work or are not implementable not that people don't care. It looks like covid is here to stay, like many other easily transmittable, infectious diseases and we will have to figure out ways to live with it.



it's absolutely hysterical that you think I would listen to you about any issues regarding race, demographics, etc. when you literally believe things like "women just dont like knives".

what you have done here is provide an example of exactly what I was talking about, once again. much the same as the conversation around minority kids falling behind where you magically had nothing to say when it was pointed out that there were rather a lot of actual things that could be done about it. the only thing you had to offer was "go back to normal"

it is so plainly transparent where you're coming from that it's not even worth engaging with your (bad) premises.

I could explain to you the ways in which tax penalties, incentives to engage in the right behavior, prioritization by the administration, etc. could at least make an effort, but what's the point? you dont care, you just want what you want irrespective of the impact it has on others. so why should I bother?


----------



## Barmoley

tcmx3 said:


> it's absolutely hysterical that you think I would listen to you about any issues regarding race, demographics, etc. when you literally believe things like "women just dont like knives".
> 
> what you have done here is provide an example of exactly what I was talking about, once again. much the same as the conversation around minority kids falling behind where you magically had nothing to say when it was pointed out that there were rather a lot of actual things that could be done about it. the only thing you had to offer was "go back to normal"
> 
> it is so plainly transparent where you're coming from that it's not even worth engaging with your (bad) premises.
> 
> I could explain to you the ways in which tax penalties, incentives to engage in the right behavior, prioritization by the administration, etc. could at least make an effort, but what's the point? you dont care, you just want what you want irrespective of the impact it has on others. so why should I bother?


Please don't waste your valuable time in explaining anything to me, according to you I won't get it anyway. Your supposed solutions are not implementable. All your whining is really just that. We need to go back to normal, whatever this normal will be. This is universally understood everywhere in the world, not just the US. You can blame the administration all you want, but keeping strict restrictions against the backdrop of lower cases and hospitalizations would not be possible for any somewhat democratic government.


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## spaceconvoy

Classic response when they don't have a real argument. They disparage the intelligence of people who would make an argument to avoid making any specific counter arguments. And they love to proclaim how it's beneath them / not worth their time (while they responding with paragraphs of text over the course of several hours). It's empty vitriol, which means you've won the debate and they're just trying to inflict collateral damage as they retreat.

Covid is fully endemic and cannot be contained even by the most advanced authoritarian government on the planet. The emergency is over. We lost and now we have to live with it.


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## tcmx3

spaceconvoy said:


> Classic response when they don't have a real argument. They disparage the intelligence of people who would make an argument to *avoid making any specific counter arguments.* And they love to proclaim how it's beneath them / not worth their time (while they responding with paragraphs of text over the course of several hours). It's empty vitriol, which means you've won the debate and they're just trying to inflict collateral damage as they retreat.
> 
> Covid is fully endemic and cannot be contained even by the most advanced authoritarian government on the planet. The emergency is over. We lost and now we have to live with it.



1. I provided 5 specific policies that should be continued. not new ones. but apparently "hey maybe just renew these" is too much lol

2. "debate me bro" lol twitter is that way -> Im not here to hash out ideas, especially with you two or the disinformation brigade. what I would like you to understand is I dont value your ideas or Barmoley's on covid, because you dont have valuable ideas on covid.

3. you are reading this as me saying he's dumb, that's not my point at all. my point is that he doesn't actually care, that his actual motivations are not what he's saying they are, which he's demonstrated multiple times. it's not stupidity at all, it's bad faith. being told you're wrong isnt being called stupid, but I could understand how men of a certain generation would not be able to distinguish the difference since it's not something they've really had to hear in their lives.


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## Keith Sinclair

I'm interested to see how many people still be wearing mask at places like Costco here, one of the most busy in the the US. Walk around punchbowl crater for exercise never felt need to wear a mask, trade winds & hardly anybody doing that walk. I do encounter a few people wearing mask or putting on when they see me coming. 

I know a lot of people will stop when it's lifted soon. I've been using kn95 at places like Costco were often a crowd. Those mask are hard to breathe through with any physical activity above normal breathing. The cheap 3 ply paper mask are easier to breathe. I still have plenty of both & will still wear at places like Costco & know won't be alone as seniors & haven't been sick at all in 3 years because of mask & taking precautions.


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## MarcelNL

tcmx3 said:


> in general I am only speaking about COVID in the US. in the same way you wont see me commenting on transmissibility, severity, etc. (unless it's to correct a misunderstanding around the statistical methodology, which I do know something about), you won't see me talking about other places unless it's to ask a question.
> 
> in the US especially the most powerful block of voters also happens to have the demographic group where covid deaths have been the lowest per capita by a pretty significant margin. people who dont look like them includes but is not limited to: older folks who are no longer able-bodied (who have been ravaged because of the nursing home situation), black & hispanic folks, the homeless, indigenous folks, people in prison (which in the US is a MASSIVE number), et cetera. those are the people disproportionately paying the price for the good old US cultural touchstone of "idgaf about the consequences of my actions"
> 
> the folks who ought to be doing something is a mixture of federal and state governments. but by and large, the federal government has to lead the way because that's where the money is, but also just logistically.
> 
> hope that clarifies


it does!
I do not readily accept that the demographics of any of the two voter blocks drive that sort of decisions for something as an infectious disease, everybody can/will contract Covid, the countermeasures just slow the spread (just see what happens in China) and I seem to recall it was the other party that did and does not want hear anything about Covid or vaccines.

Groups being more affected is IMO not an effect by design but a symptom/side effect of f.e being old and thus more at risk from ANY infectious disease, or making the choice not to be vaccinated, or not being informed, or being told by a religious leader not to get vaccinated. Whatever the reasons are for folks not getting vaccinated is something to do ressearch on to identify them and try inform them. I'm not aware how outreach to the groups you refer to is done or how their access to vaccines differs, I'm sure there is more that can be done to try.

The difference in effect between vaccinated and unvaccinated is the same and clearly visible in the numbers in all countries. The US probably is unique in the world in that it's a country where Covid outcomes can be attributed to political preference so clearly.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/01/28/boosters-exacerbate-republican-democrat-vaccine-gap/


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## gregfisk

The bottom line is people can still wear masks if they want to. No one is saying otherwise. We are in a lull right now and many are letting their guard down for good or for the moment. I don’t think the administration has done anything terribly wrong at this point since the public is done dealing with the pandemic whether the government likes it or not.


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## Keith Sinclair

Democracy is not perfect America unfortunately is more Divided than United States. Across the planet we seem to be going backwards. In 1930's. Germany, Japan, & Italy felt strong leadership with dictatorial powers works best. Communism supposed to be for the communal good was ruled by dictators like Stalin who killed millions. Ukraine suffered under Stalins rule. So many had died in his purges & forced starvation they welcomed the Nazi's. 

Putin from the early days of limited power would pocket all the money meant to be spent in a program and then defer the blame elsewhere. He has done that all his career & is one of richest men in the world where in Russia standard of living for the masses is lower than India. Wealth by a few in a large resource rich country. Like North Korea giant pictures of Putin the savior of Russia & Crimea are everywhere. Many Crimean's are missing in Putin's takeover & his puppet ruler. 

Like Russia failed in Afghanistan was undoing of America in it's longest war. Just like the 1930's dictators see democracy as weak.


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## Keith Sinclair

Sorry too political for this forum


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## ian

spaceconvoy said:


> The emergency is over.



I'd push back a bit on this and say "case numbers are low enough now that most poeple want to relax the mitigation measures". The numbers can always go up again, in which case they should be reinstated.

---

I'm still going to mask on campus for the forseeable future. I've been avoiding the inevitable conversation where I tell my students they can exercise their own judgement about wearing masks in class, but I'm not reminding them anymore to mask like I used to. About 1/3-1/2 of them caught covid in the past 3 months.... my university's a petri dish.


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## inferno

i haven't worn a mask at all during this pandemic and i'm still alive.
this proves that masks are unnecessary.


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## MarcelNL

@inferno You came to the right place


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## Luftmensch

@tcmx3,

You and I share many political views in common. At this point in the pandemic I dont know that I can fully agree with what you are advocating. I am wary that what applies to Australia may not apply to the USA - and vice versa.

My major objection with your thinking is this:



tcmx3 said:


> you need to continue testing until things are over + some period after to confirm.



What does "over" look like? If there was a chance to contain Covid, that opportunity passed years ago. "Over" for Covid is going to look like "over" for influenza, rhinovirus and the other coronaviruses.

Don't get me wrong, I have a lot of criticism for how my government handled topics like you mentioned. In my country aged care was bungled. The vaccine rollout was mishandled and slow. Big corporates profited off the income support scheme. We squandered the opportunity to observe the nature of Omicron before releasing the brakes. I can't for the life of me understand why we relaxed mask mandates (they are such a low cost intervention).

I would hope that the pandemic has made people reflect on what is broken in our countries. The importance of healthcare. The fact that we can support low-income workers if we choose. We can massively subsidise childcare if we wish. That the pressures people face in life are magnified by disadvantage. That wealth and opportunity is disproportionally spread across society. That we are vulnerable to shocks in the supply chain because we dont manufacture anything anymore. That housing is unaffordable for many people in our capital cities. The way that supposedly 1-in-100 year climate events keep ravaging our population - during the pandemic we had drought, fires, flood, plagues and flood again.

The pandemic is far from over. It will _never_ be over. The issues I listed above are major structural problems that we _could_ rethink. That we _could_ attempt to fix. If we dont... those problems will never be "over" either. What a world to inherit....

Did my government do the wrong thing in moving rapidly to "live with covid"? It is too early to tell. There is no absolute right or wrong.... there is only what the electorate collectively think. We have an election in several months. Will the electorate punish the current incumbents for moving to "live with covid"... I dont think so. Does that mean the incumbents will win? This is far from certain. In the final analysis, whether there is a change of governments or not, I think you will see the current government being punished for the way the pandemic was handled and many of the important but narrower issues I listed above.


----------



## tcmx3

Luftmensch said:


> What does "over" look like? If there was a chance to contain Covid, that opportunity passed years ago. "Over" for Covid is going to look like "over" for influenza, rhinovirus and the other coronaviruses.



I would defer to epidemiologists for what R number we would need to fall to for it to effectively be over. I can say though from a measurement standpoint you would want some period after it hit that number of it staying at/below that figure to confirm.

Unfortunately you are not wrong. There is no over anymore. The US government has run out of money to do COVID stuff like keep vaccines free for the uninsured (which will be ending in a few days) because the political will is so weak, but we have 778 Billion to give to the pentagon to buy more POS F-35s  Shows you where the priorities of the American electorate lie.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Childcare & preschool education should be supported. Do they call it Kindergarten down under. That's what did my early babysitting learning numbers & letters. In Hawaii kindergarten is available to whoever takes advantage of it.

It is advantageous to take care of yourself with eating healthy exercising. But truth people know it but many not willing to do it. In America many take drugs. That should be part of early education. 

Easy to be critical of Government. Blame it on politicians. Personal responsibility means a lot.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

England & France SSBN nuclear subs are from 1990's France late 90's. USA aging Ohio class SSBN is from 1970's. All three countries are working on modern advanced technology replacements. England & USA share work closely together in technology for next generation. 

Russia just launched it's newer subs. 

US has best attack subs in the Virginia class.


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## Luftmensch

tcmx3 said:


> Unfortunately you are not wrong. There is no over anymore. The US government has run out of money to do COVID stuff like keep vaccines free for the uninsured (which will be ending in a few days) because the political will is so weak, but we have 778 Billion to give to the pentagon to buy more POS F-35s  Shows you where the priorities of the American electorate lie.





We're in lockstep with you. Defence budgets are poorly scrutinised. We have amazing form at bungling defence contracts. The recent French submarine debacle is a great example. We contracted France to build diesel powered versions of their nuclear submarines. We then gave them the finger, cancelled the contract and agreed to buy American/UK _nuclear_ submarines. We have already spend $2.4 billion on the French deal. At the end of the day we have nothing to show for it but diplomatic tension. The new AUKUS deal could cost anywhere between $70 and $171 billion. We're also going to have a capabilities gap as our current submarine fleet is supposed to retire before the new submarines will be delivered. In true form, our current submarine fleet has been plagued by maintenance issues and defects since there were floated. 

F35s. Frigates. Helicopters... Thank the stars... we havent had war threaten us for a long time... this allows us the luxury to laugh at our own incompetence. Woe betide; that complacency also means we haven't tested whether we have the capability we assume we do (after a lot of wasted money).

I get that the world is lacing up its boots. I get that you'll regret having inadequate defence capability when you need it.... But Australia is set to increase defence spending up to 2.5% of GDP... I know this is small fry by global comparison. Yet we only spend around ~1.8% GDP on education. Ask the average person on the street which would improve their quality of life more "world class" submarines or "world class" education... I doubt many would opt for the submarines...


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## Luftmensch

Keith Sinclair said:


> Childcare & preschool education should be supported. Do they call it Kindergarten down under. That's what did my early babysitting learning numbers & letters. In Hawaii kindergarten is available to whoever takes advantage of it.



Some states use the word 'preschool', other use 'kindergarten'. This makes it a bit muddled... as a result Aussies generally treat the terms as interchangeable. Since we hate pronouncing full words, when used in conversation, kindergarten is often referred to as 'kindy' - though you wont see it in any formal writing.

Depending on the person, you may even hear 'nursery school' - but this is a bit old fashioned. Equivalently, 'early learning' is also used but this is a more recent addition.


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## Jovidah

Luftmensch said:


> We're in lockstep with you. Defence budgets are poorly scrutinised. We have amazing form at bungling defence contracts. The recent French submarine debacle is a great example. We contracted France to build diesel powered versions of their nuclear submarines. We then gave them the finger, cancelled the contract and agreed to buy American/UK _nuclear_ submarines. We have already spend $2.4 billion on the French deal. At the end of the day we have nothing to show for it but diplomatic tension. The new AUKUS deal could cost anywhere between $70 and $171 billion. We're also going to have a capabilities gap as our current submarine fleet is supposed to retire before the new submarines will be delivered. In true form, our current submarine fleet has been plagued by maintenance issues and defects since there were floated.
> 
> F35s. Frigates. Helicopters... Thank the stars... we havent had war threaten us for a long time... this allows us the luxury to laugh at our own incompetence. Woe betide; that complacency also means we haven't tested whether we have the capability we assume we do (after a lot of wasted money).
> 
> I get that the world is lacing up its boots. I get that you'll regret having inadequate defence capability when you need it.... But Australia is set to increase defence spending up to 2.5% of GDP... I know this is small fry by global comparison. Yet we only spend around ~1.8% GDP on education. Ask the average person on the street which would improve their quality of life more "world class" submarines or "world class" education... I doubt many would opt for the submarines...


Actually though I agree that defense spending and projects need to be run tighter... shooting down the French deal was the right choice as it was an extreme example of one of those projects just sucking in money, ballooning in cost while going absolutely nowhere.
The French were given the finger because after _years_ all had they to show for the efforts and investments was an ever increasing pricetag. The NH90 is a similarly problematic problem that's controversial even in Europe as a result.

From an alliance perspective - with Australia clearly being reliant on the Americans for security in the region - having American gear actually does make total sense.
Similarly, one often unmentioned aspect of using F-35s is that they are certified for the usage of US nuclear munitions. There also isn't necessarily any competing off the shelf platform Australia could buy that has decent stealth capabilities.

I understand that defense spending is painful, and often seems useless when it's not needed. Defense spending is often a lot like preventive medicine; if it works you don't notice it... But as many have found out in the past, neglecting defense can come at a terrible price. Recent events make abundantly clear that all the international law and economical repercussions are not enough to deter certain actors who insist on redrawing the map through violence.

It's painful because it means you have to make difficult choices in how you spend your budget, and it often means foregoing things that in times of peace you'd much rather spend the money on. The problem is that you cannot wait until a war starts to finally start building and investing in a military. We tried that in the Netherlands before World War 2. The result was several hundred thousand deaths and several years of occupation that only ended because we were lucky enough that someone else was willing to pay the price to end it...

On the whole corona thing; I think we've reached a point where no amount of subsidy is really going to convince many people to get vaccinated. At this point at least you can only hope that milder variants like omnicron at least managed to give a level of natural resistance / immunity that will improve outcomes in future 'rounds'. Because there's just no getting rid of COVID at this point; it really is becoming like another flu. At this point we have to start thinking about how we'll handle future waves... it would be helpful if we could generate some kind of surge capacity in the medical field to handle future recurrences. Medical reservists?


----------



## tcmx3

Jovidah said:


> I understand that defense spending is painful, and often seems useless when it's not needed. Defense spending is often a lot like preventive medicine; if it works you don't notice it... But as many have found out in the past, neglecting defense can come at a terrible price. Recent events make abundantly clear that all the international law and economical repercussions are not enough to deter certain actors who insist on redrawing the map through violence.



Im not opposed to spending the money. It creates a lot of jobs. A lot of people in my own family are career military.

But if we in the US can afford that, we can afford boosters, tests, unemployment insurance, direct payments to the service industry so we dont lose so many restaurants, etc.

We should just let the pentagon administer the covid response we'd have infinite money


----------



## Barmoley

I am all for free vaccines, but realistically at this point anyone who wanted to get vaccinated did. I still think low cost vaccines and especially testing should be available, but again people had plenty of time to vaccinate if they wanted to. Spending on defense and military is needed, I just wish it wasn’t as inefficient as it seems to be, yet we need to spend money on it.


----------



## Jovidah

Funny you mention that. There are some countries where the military had a far larger role in the vaccination campaign. Given the respect the miltary in the US seems to have that could have contributed significantly to vaccine acceptance.
The root of the problem in the US is still that the whole COVID response became a political shitshow; that wasn't anywhere near as bad in most countries in Europe. It doesn't help when you have a president who ... well.. I cannot mention because it would just get my post removed again...  
Do you really think it would have been such a shitshow if we had Mitt Romney or John McCain in the president's seat?


----------



## Jovidah

Barmoley said:


> I am all for free vaccines, but realistically at this point anyone who wanted to get vaccinated did. I still think low cost vaccines and especially testing should be available, but again people had plenty of time to vaccinate if they wanted to. Spending on defense and military is needed, I just wish it wasn’t as inefficient as it seems to be, yet we need to spend money on it.


Yeah I'm with you on this. The only people I know who haven't gotten vaccinated yet are the people who never will. They've been on the market for about a year now?


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Today first day of no more mask mandate in Hawaii. We were last state. Plenty tourist most from mainland no more lines at airports, proof of vaccine, tests. 

Asian tourist not yet but soon as Hawaii has very little cases. My guess many Asians still wearing mask. Here it's up to vendors if employees still wear mask. 

Just personal experience say it again for me a mask keeps me from touching my face after being in crowds & touching carts etc. That many people have touched. Gel & mask not sick at all for longest time can remember since before COVID-19. Can remember going to grocery store cashier obviously sick then I'm sick next day. 

Because of covid I watched all 6 DVD in my great courses Mysteries of the Microscopic World. About infectious virus & bacteria. 
It was made a few years before COVID-19. 
Makes you realize how dangerous some strains can be. When hike in forest wet areas always spray on insect repellent since watching that college coarse.


----------



## Barmoley

It's a fine line. Not just covid, but in general. You can wear a mask, disinfect everything, stay at home, etc. You protect yourself, don't get sick then somewhere somehow catch something and get really sick from something others don't even notice. Our immune system needs a workout. We see this with kids all the time, kids that stay at home for the first few years get pretty sick as soon as they finally go to day care. Not saying you should expose yourself and not be cautious, especially when older and volnurable, but there is a balance somewhere that is hard to reach.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

I usually learn things the hard way. From kid time been on & in the water. 1950's 60's hardly wore sunblock at all. Zinc oxide on face, nose. Sure forgot my ears. Surfing older sunblock not that good would wash off not much help staying out there for hours. I use to drive to North Shore on day off surf in morning come in eat lunch then go out again in the afternoon. 

65 years old had melanoma back of my ear. Had to cut part of ear off & take lymph nodes out of my neck. Caught it in time. Dermatologist said that I didn't take very good care of skin had to freeze spots on neck & arms. Not any in recent years because take precautions. Threw away all my baseball type hats. 

Agree with what you say. Our immune system is amazing. That's why vaccines work put a little in the system so body knows what to attack. I never even used to get flu vaccine.

Used to like watching a show called sudden impact. About guys more stupid than me. 
One thing never did that looks like a lot of fun is kite surfing.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Another thing learned was that if you had chicken pox & measles as a child you won't get it again because built in immunity. 

The Chicken Pox virus stays in your body forever as seniors the older you get greater chance of getting shingles that is related to chicken pox both in herpes family.


----------



## tcmx3

Keith Sinclair said:


> Another thing learned was that if you had chicken pox & measles as a child you won't get it again because built in immunity.
> 
> The Chicken Pox virus stays in your body forever as seniors the older you get greater chance of getting shingles that is related to chicken pox both in herpes family.



see the funny thing about that is when I was very little, chicken pox parties were very popular. I think that was largely true until the vaccine came out (which was right around the same time) the "common wisdom" was that the later you got it, the more sever it was, so of course it made sense to intentionally get your kids infected.

that has turned out not to be a great idea.

anyway my parents thankfully elected to get me vaccinated rather than roll the dice on the disease itself. similarly in my house we locked down HARD until vaccine courses were done. I am beyond thankful that the teenager hit 18 before going off to university and could get vaccinated.

COVID is really, really serious. People talk about it like you get it and you're either completely fine or if you get unlucky you die and nothing in between. Unfortunately, it's not so simple. COVID has shown that even in non-lethal cases it can damage the respiratory system very severely, cause neurological damage, and while limited there is some suspicion it could be causing people's immune systems to behave erratically. All of these are very bad news. That's on top of you killing your mom or dad or newborn that didnt seem to be enough to stop people (though when you consider how many elderly folks were shunted into nursing homes to be forgotten and subsequently died, guess I understand how that could happen)


----------



## gregfisk

I got chicken pox as a young kid but it hardly effected me at all. Then in my 40’s I got shingles 3 times. They were extremely mild each time. I found out years later that I have a blood disorder which is most likely why I got shingles. Anyway, when my daughter was in elementary school the chicken pox were going around and at the time getting them young was the best option. Well, we exposed her directly a half a dozen times but she never did get them. She ended up getting the vaccine before reaching puberty because that was what was recommended. For some reason we are highly immune to chicken pox and I’m fairly certain I wouldn’t have gotten shingles if I was healthy at the time. Once I was treated after I almost died I haven’t had shingles again. It tracks in my mind with people who don’t have any issues with Covid and people who go down hard and die from it. We really don’t know why that’s the case but it makes no sense to me why anyone would take the risk.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Chicken Pox is very contagious. I had it I am told when I was 4. 1953. I don't remember it. 

My best buddy had shingles at age 68. He said it was awful. Got shingles vaccine after that experience.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

tcmx3 said:


> see the funny thing about that is when I was very little, chicken pox parties were very popular. I think that was largely true until the vaccine came out (which was right around the same time) the "common wisdom" was that the later you got it, the more sever it was, so of course it made sense to intentionally get your kids infected.
> 
> that has turned out not to be a great idea.
> 
> anyway my parents thankfully elected to get me vaccinated rather than roll the dice on the disease itself. similarly in my house we locked down HARD until vaccine courses were done. I am beyond thankful that the teenager hit 18 before going off to university and could get vaccinated.
> 
> COVID is really, really serious. People talk about it like you get it and you're either completely fine or if you get unlucky you die and nothing in between. Unfortunately, it's not so simple. COVID has shown that even in non-lethal cases it can damage the respiratory system very severely, cause neurological damage, and while limited there is some suspicion it could be causing people's immune systems to behave erratically. All of these are very bad news. That's on top of you killing your mom or dad or newborn that didnt seem to be enough to stop people (though when you consider how many elderly folks were shunted into nursing homes to be forgotten and subsequently died, guess I understand how that could happen)



When COVID-19 was just starting to spread & heard that some people were dying, we took it serious. I had remembered seeing interviews with SARS patients that had permanent organ damage usually lungs, but also heart & kidney too. It never became a Pandemic with low numbers worldwide but % high number of deaths. Early COVID-19 virus similar to SARS but much more contagious.


----------



## Jovidah

For me the main wakeup was China's actual reaction. There's a saying in international affairs; don't believe what people say, believe what they do. While China was busy telling the world there was nothing to see here, move along, everything is under control, they were locking down cities with millions of people, building gigantic hospitals overnight, shutting down half the economy and generally acting as if the plague had broken out. The rhetoric just didn't match their own behavior - and they were in the best position to know how serious it actually was.


----------



## LostHighway

Jovidah said:


> For me the main wakeup was China's actual reaction. There's a saying in international affairs; don't believe what people say, believe what they do. While China was busy telling the world there was nothing to see here, move along, everything is under control, they were locking down cities with millions of people, building gigantic hospitals overnight, shutting down half the economy and generally acting as if the plague had broken out. The rhetoric just didn't match their own behavior - and they were in the best position to know how serious it actually was.



This is always a good rule of thumb when it comes to politicians: "Ignore 95% of what they say but pay very close attention to how they vote and what they actually do."


----------



## Keith Sinclair

At first the party leaders shut down the Chinese doctor who was sounding the alarm that it was airborne & people were dieing in Wuhan.


----------



## MarcelNL

killing the messenger before asking further questions is a proven strategy, if long term does not matter that is


----------



## Keith Sinclair

I looked it up Li Wenliang sent out warning to other doctors on Dec. 30. Four days later he was summoned to public security told to sign letter that he was making false comments. If didn't sign he would be brought to justice. He signed. Dr. Li went back to the hospital where he caught Covid. The 34 year old Ophthalmologist died a month later from the virus.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Another thing about built up immunity is when Europeans came in touch with indigenous people in the Americas & Hawaii. Things like measles was a death sentence. Many more died from different virus & bacteria than any warfare.


----------



## EricEricEric

We’ve seen the CDC adjust the numbers multiple times and we’ve seen the large “discrepancies” in classification of those labeled as having died WITH Covid (even if it was an acute death by another means) which still has not been properly defined and remember that the high majority of deaths were WITH Covid and not of Covid.

Even if it wasn’t an acute death we know that the overwhelming majority of people who died had 3-4 comorbidities which was the likely cause of death.

Also, remember that coronavirus is absolutely nothing new, it’s been around forever and always has been. Every few years there’s a new mutation ie SARS MERS etc, no one is ever stopping a highly mutating virus from spreading. It’s the same reason that influenza parainfluenza adenovarius and rhinovirus continue to persist


----------



## Keith Sinclair

SARS, MERS both coronavirus were small in case # but more deadly. Covid19 also a coronavirus many more overall deaths because it was full blown pandemic. 

I agree that first strain of covid & delta many who died had other issues. But all that died were not old sick people. Younger so called healthy people died too. Other have after effects of long term covid. 

There have been throughout history deadly virus & in the future for sure. It's like weeds that take over a yard, they need less water, very resistant good survivers. Virus are the ultimate adaptive survivers.


----------



## Hockey3081

EricEricEric said:


> We’ve seen the CDC adjust the numbers multiple times and we’ve seen the large “discrepancies” in classification of those labeled as having died WITH Covid (even if it was an acute death by another means) which still has not been properly defined and remember that the high majority of deaths were WITH Covid and not of Covid.
> 
> Even if it wasn’t an acute death we know that the overwhelming majority of people who died had 3-4 comorbidities which was the likely cause of death.



Ah the ol “Covid is just the flu”/The global medical community had a conspiracy to mislabel deaths because “do your research bro.” 

Presumably your “facts” came from people on Facebook who likely bottle their own urine.









Fact check: 94% of individuals with additional causes of death still had COVID-19


Shared thousands of times on Facebook, posts claim that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) “quietly updated” its COVID-19 data “to admit that only 6% of all the 153,504 (U.S.) deaths recorded actually died from (COVID-19).” According to the posts, the CDC...




mobile.reuters.com







> An emailed statement to Reuters from the Mortality Statistics Branch at the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) said death certificates, filled out by a physician, medical examiner, or coroner, list any causes or conditions that contributed to the person’s death, determined based on the medical expertise of that professional. The condition “that began the chain of events that ultimately led to the person’s death” is considered the person’s “underlying cause of death.”
> 
> In these cases, this would be COVID-19.
> 
> …He provided an analogy to someone dying of a gunshot wound whose death certificate might list gunshot wound, along with hemorrhagic shock and liver laceration, as causes of death, with homelessness (associated with more exposure to potential violence, here ), as a contributing factor. For someone who died of COVID-19, the death certificate might read COVID-19, as well as pneumonia and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) as causes of death, with diabetes and hypertension as contributing factors.


----------



## tcmx3

EricEricEric said:


> We’ve seen the CDC adjust the numbers multiple times and we’ve seen the large “discrepancies” in classification of those labeled as having died WITH Covid (even if it was an acute death by another means) which still has not been properly defined and remember that the high majority of deaths were WITH Covid and not of Covid.
> 
> Even if it wasn’t an acute death we know that the overwhelming majority of people who died had 3-4 comorbidities which was the likely cause of death.
> 
> Also, remember that coronavirus is absolutely nothing new, it’s been around forever and always has been. Every few years there’s a new mutation ie SARS MERS etc, no one is ever stopping a highly mutating virus from spreading. It’s the same reason that influenza parainfluenza adenovarius and rhinovirus continue to persist



for two years you've been saying this like those people are any less dead but Im pretty sure theyre the exact same amount of dead, which they wouldnt have been were it not for covid  

or have I just missed the point you've been trying to make for two years because if you're not trying to downplay how bad COVID has been I actually, legitimately don't understand what you're trying to say.


----------



## Michi

There is a very simple way to determine the extra deaths from Covid (as opposed to other causes): just look at the observed mortality rate versus the expected mortality rate. We know with a great deal of accuracy how many people die each week; that's a very stable figure. If we suddenly have a lot more deaths than normal, they must be due to something unusual.

Here are the Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19. The graph half-way down the page is instructive. It shows all deaths, regardless of cause. Note the excess deaths starting in May 2020, followed by four more peaks in August 2020, January 2021, September 2021, and January 2022. Also note how these peaks perfectly align with the number of reported Covid cases.

All the people who are part of those crests of excess deaths are really dead, and they really died because of Covid.

To claim that Covid isn't deadly and hasn't killed all these people is delusional.


----------



## Michi

Here is an article that explains excess mortality in some detail, without getting too "sciency".

Quote:


> _All-cause excess mortality is one of the most reliable and unbiased ways to look at the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic. […] It does not rely on how many tests were done or on subjective cause of death designations.
> […]
> Whenever we hear that another 100,000 people died of Covid, there’s a reliable chorus of naysayers who claim that these deaths would’ve happened anyway. Excess deaths cuts through that, because it’s about reporting whether the total number of deaths is out of the ordinary._


----------



## Jovidah

Are we still doing the comorbidities argument? At least half of the US population has some kind of underlying condition that you could frame as such...
The excess deaths are indeed the best gauge for how big the problem actually was, especially considering there weren't really any other things going on that could explain them (like you'd see in warzones). 

The reasons in statistics being adjusted and corrected over time is actually not that weird. It often results in slight discrepancies resulting in different places using different reporting systems, computer systems, classification systems, etc.

It's kind of ironic that we've seen China - a country notorious for its lack of respect for life and individual wellbeing - taking the whole corona thing more seriously than many in the US.


----------



## MarcelNL

Mortality rates is one thing, they are elevated due to Covid....there are plenty other clear signs that Covid is not just a light flu....









Risks and burdens of incident diabetes in long COVID: a cohort study


In the post-acute phase, we report increased risks and 12-month burdens of incident diabetes and antihyperglycaemic use in people with COVID-19 compared with a contemporary control group of people who were enrolled during the same period and had not contracted SARS-CoV-2, and a historical...



www.thelancet.com





For the uninterested reader, the short version is that even a mild case of Covid seriously elevated the risk of contracting diabetes. The study compared two groups consisting of approx 4 Million veterans each.

It seems Covid a.o. attacks pancreatic beta cells.
Studies link Covid-19 infection with increased risk of new diabetes diagnosis


----------



## EricEricEric

What’s the difference between having died of Covid and having died WITH Covid? 

3-4 comorbidities, not one, not two, three or more which includes things like cancer and other diseased conditions where the comorbidities were the actual cause of death, but still testing positive of Covid 

Up to 3,000,000 Americans die annually, as of the latest “adjustment” we have around 300,000 deaths annually from Covid 

I’m predicting the adjusted number will continue to decline over time 

Time will tell


----------



## MarcelNL

EricEricEric said:


> What’s the difference between having died of Covid and having died WITH Covid?


both are equally dead, an irreversable condition incompatible with life...

I'd drop the second guessing of numbers that are pretty accurate and put together and scrutinized by experts. As Michi said, they are being changed over time as insights, classifications etc change, but the bottom line truth is; people die OF Covid and people die WITH Covid and people suffer FROM Covid, if you do not believe this then please go speak with any member of staff at your nearest ICU.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Short version remember the refrigerated containers outside hospitals early on during first spike to hold the dead.


----------



## MarcelNL

Keith Sinclair said:


> Short version remember the refrigerated containers outside hospitals early on during first spike to hold the dead.


not just during the initial spike, Hong Kong uses that strategy right now;









Hong Kong Hospital Workers Transfer Corpses From Refrigerated Containers To Prevent Spreading Of Covid-19


Amid a sudden surge of Covid-19 cases in Hong Kong, the overburdened hospitals have switched to refrigerated containers to carry all corpses in a bid to prevent further spreading of the deadly virus.




www.outlookindia.com





Unless HK hospitals take care of wounded from a certain 'special operation' my best explanation would be that the Covid spike they are currently trying to contain causes a significant increase in death rate.

and on top of that; research shows that contracting BOTH Covid and influenza ups the ante and patients with both end up being ventilated more often and are at higher risk of dying.








SARS-CoV-2 co-infection with influenza viruses, respiratory syncytial virus, or adenoviruses


Measures to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 have also been effective in reducing the transmission of other endemic respiratory viruses.1,2 As many countries decrease the use of such measures,2 we expect that SARS-CoV-2 will circulate with other respiratory viruses, increasing the probability...



www.thelancet.com





Now risk ratio's may be a bit difficult to understand at first sight but they still illustrate that the risk of dying with Covid as comorbidity from another disease (here influenza) is higher than without Covid.


----------



## Jovidah

Another issue is that if COVID casualties overwhelm medical services you'll see an increase in non-COVID deaths and health problems because other care gets deprioritized due to lack of capacity. Think of for example people who have cancer treatments postponed, or certain operations get cancelled that lead to complications further down the road. So there will be extra deaths who technically didn't die from COVID, but are definitly still related. God knows where you put those under the statistics though, althoguh they are a small - but nevertheless existant - part of the excess deaths.


----------



## MarcelNL

correct, those likely count as all cause excess deaths


----------



## Feiii

could anybody point me to the right direction, please? I remember there was this knife maker in Japan that was supposed to resume its sale of knives abroad in February but due to Omicron spread they said they would do it in September. Really a simple traditional knives for a good price from Shirogami steel iirc. Tried browsing my history/google but cannot find them anymore.


----------



## gregfisk

Michi said:


> There is a very simple way to determine the extra deaths from Covid (as opposed to other causes): just look at the observed mortality rate versus the expected mortality rate. We know with a great deal of accuracy how many people die each week; that's a very stable figure. If we suddenly have a lot more deaths than normal, they must be due to something unusual.
> 
> Here are the Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19. The graph half-way down the page is instructive. It shows all deaths, regardless of cause. Note the excess deaths starting in May 2020, followed by four more peaks in August 2020, January 2021, September 2021, and January 2022. Also note how these peaks perfectly align with the number of reported Covid cases.
> 
> All the people who are part of those crests of excess deaths are really dead, and they really died of Covid.
> 
> To claim that Covid isn't deadly and hasn't killed all these people is delusional.



Once again Michi lays out the obvious answers in a way that even a noodle head could understand. And yet, no direct response from the peanut gallery, just more nonsense. Thanks Michi for being the logical, level headed person you are. I am so sick of all of the nonsense that in reality means absolutely nothing.


----------



## tcmx3

ba.2 currently taking the UK to  town: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

we may be over covid, but covid aint over with us.


----------



## tcmx3

great retro in Nature: Five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible

an interesting bit from the article (it goes over a lot though so consider reading the whole thing):


> What’s happening in Brazil offers a cautionary tale. Research published in _Science_ suggests that the slowdown of COVID-19 in the city of Manaus between May and October might have been attributable to herd-immunity effects (L. F. Buss _et al_. _Science_ *371*, 288–292; 2021). The area had been severely hit by the disease, and immunologist Ester Sabino at the University of São Paulo, Brazil, and her colleagues calculated that more than 60% of the population had been infected by June 2020. According to some estimates, that should have been enough to get the population to the herd-immunity threshold, but in January Manaus saw a huge resurgence in cases. This spike happened after the emergence of a new variant known as P.1, which suggests that previous infections did not confer broad protection to the virus. “In January, 100% of the cases in Manaus were caused by P.1,” Sabino says. Scarpino suspects that the 60% figure might have been an overestimate. Even so, he says, “You still have resurgence in the face of a high level of immunity.”


----------



## Keith Sinclair

As careful as we have been restrictions have been lifted many people here are still wearing masks. 

Some local kids in our neighborhood are into Mazda Miata's. They got abandoned car that had been raced got it released when owner said did not want it anymore. Was in bad condition been in a wreak. Front bumper frame bent. It had good aftermarket parts on it so they striped out coilovers, aluminum aftermarket radiator, other racing parts like racing brace & rear wing. 

I was hanging out watching them work. Some nice Mazda's on our street this week. Showed them pictures of Alfa Romeo's my brother restored. Was admiring the Miata of the mechanic helping the neighborhood kid. 

Asked if I wanted to drive it, so he got in passenger seat as I drove it over the Pali & back. Next day was sneezing runny nose day after that slight fever no energy at all. Of coarse Janice got it too we got self home covid test came up positive. It's like a regular cold upper respiratory. We had vaccines & booster. Looks like didn't escape this when let guard down. I suspect that many others in same boat as us getting sick but no need for hospital.


----------



## MarcelNL

Good for you Keith (that you both can cope with it without much of an ordeal), it just underlines what has been found; vaccination and boostering does not prevent contracting Covid but it does protect against severity!


----------



## sansho

a bittersweet tale, keith.
lived a little, got covid


----------



## Barmoley

MarcelNL said:


> Good for you Keith (that you both can cope with it without much of an ordeal), it just underlines what has been found; vaccination and boostering does not prevent contracting Covid but it does protect against severity!


Sounds about right.

nejm.org: Protection by a Fourth Dose of BNT162b2 against Omicron in Israel | NEJM.








Protection by a Fourth Dose of BNT162b2 against Omicron in Israel | NEJM


Original Article from The New England Journal of Medicine — Protection by a Fourth Dose of BNT162b2 against Omicron in Israel



www.nejm.org


----------



## Keith Sinclair

sansho said:


> a bittersweet tale, keith.
> lived a little, got covid



No kidding. Had been hiking every week, walking around punchbowl crater to get in hiking shape. Now tired just climbing the stairs 
We are just laying low. Two days been watching the Danish series Seaside Hotel streaming on PBS.


----------



## MarcelNL

Keith Sinclair said:


> No kidding. Had been hiking every week, walking around punchbowl crater to get in hiking shape. Now tired just climbing the stairs
> We are just laying low. Two days been watching the Danish series Seaside Hotel streaming on PBS.



That sounds VERY familiar, stairs getting higher while you climb and watching pulp for a day or two equals Omikron when vaccinated.

I got clobbered by good old Influenza, and that has a bit more impact (5 days of pulp now)


----------



## Hockey3081

Some good scientific articles within this article.









A new wave of COVID is coming, and America doesn't seem to care


COVID could become the No. 1 cause of death in the U.S. if the country continues to let the virus spread undeterred, a new study warns.




fortune.com


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Are people wearing mask? Our covid was pretty mild for me 5 days of low energy than fine. Put on my mask after staying at home for a week went to Chinatown. Everyone wearing mask. Went to Down to Earth vegetarian everyone wearing mask. 

To me means this latest strain is mild for vaccine folks, but plenty unreported getting sick.


----------



## MarcelNL

Interesting background article on the question why some seem unable to contract Covid;








Multifactorial seroprofiling dissects the contribution of pre-existing human coronaviruses responses to SARS-CoV-2 immunity - Nature Communications


How the immune responses induced by SARS-CoV-2 and human coronavirus (hCoV) crosstalk is still unclear. Here the authors profile the humoral responses of prepandemic and SARS-CoV-2-infected donors to find that higher hCoV antibody titers are associated with SARS-CoV-2 negativity, and with...




www.nature.com


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Would never submit to intentional infection. Like those chicken pox parties to infect children to build immunity in the past. 

Talking to my sister's chicken pox hit all of us siblings Anne was 8, Nancy was 6 & I was 4 that's why don't remember it. 

Somehow now that had a mild case of covid maybe beneficial antibodies in my system.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

BA.2 seems to be picking up a little steam. Less hospitalizations many people are tired of restrictions. This week Honolulu mayor caught 
it. Isolating with mild systems like ours. Ours not being reported self test so official # are low. 
Went to Safeway today to pickup food cuz stayed home a week. Everyone is wearing mask 
even though mask mandate has been dropped.

Was reading BA.2 cases up around the world very contagious. 

Honolulu during high hospital # brought in nurse's from mainland. Now they went home hospitals are still busy with other needs that have been put off because of covid last two years.


----------



## MarcelNL

still, even with BA.2 being as contageous as it is, vaccination is the best protection against severe disease.


----------



## daveb

Sez who?

Why is pro-vax mindset not questioned with any kind of rigor? Even the makers are saying the "booster" is not very effective, soooooooooo, you need another booster! Kerching!


----------



## KingShapton

daveb said:


> Sez who?
> 
> Why is pro-vax mindset not questioned with any kind of rigor? Even the makers are saying the "booster" is not very effective, soooooooooo, you need another booster! Kerching!


A UK study was recently published (unfortunately I don't have a source I can link) showing that the risk of death in people over 60 after receiving the second booster drops by 78% compared to people who only received the first booster.

I would call that efficient.


----------



## sansho

not getting it in the first place is the best protection against severe disease, but it's hard to count on that.
so if you exclude that as the strategy, what else is left? seems like the vax or nothing.


----------



## MarcelNL

daveb said:


> Sez who?
> 
> Why is pro-vax mindset not questioned with any kind of rigor? Even the makers are saying the "booster" is not very effective, soooooooooo, you need another booster! Kerching!



says a wealth of peer reviewed literature, I'm not making this up....You seem to mix up a few things, a booster is indeed less effective against contracting the current variants, yet that same booster still offers good protection against severity of disease and therefore getting a booster is still a good idea for certain groups (elderly etc) for lack of much alternative.


----------



## Michi

Here is the most recent data for hospitalisations reported for NSW:

NSW Health COVID-19 Critical Intelligence Unit: COVID-19 Monitor, 14 April 2022

Note how only 22.2% of Covid patients in hospital are unvaccinated, and 74.4% have had two doses or more. This means that almost exactly 22.9% of hospital beds are occupied by unvaccinated people, and 77.1% by vaccinated people.

Before you go and shout "see, the shots don't help, more than three quarters of Covid hospital patients are vaccinated", consider that 94.7% of the NSW population aged 12 and up have had two or more shots. This means that, for every unvaccinated person, there are 94.7 vaccinated persons. So, adjusted for vaccination status, an unvaccinated person is 94.7 * 0.229 = 21.6 times more likely to end up in hospital.

Yes, you read that right. If you are not vaccinated, your risk of hospitalisation due to Covid is 21 times higher than that of a vaccinated person, at least in NSW. I see no reason why the figures would be different elsewhere.

It also underlines the burden that is placed on our hospital system by people who will not get the vaccine: they take up 21 times more beds than is their so-called "right". Those beds cannot be used by people who have other medical conditions, not to mention the needless financial strain that places on society overall.


----------



## Luftmensch

Keith Sinclair said:


> Are people wearing mask?



I can share my local experience.... yes and no... We are only _required_ to wear masks on public transport and in places like hospitals. In day-to-day life, there is definitely a demographic bias. The elderly and, I hate to racial profile/stereotype here, Asians tend to be fairly good mask wearers. A low number of hospitality staff wear masks. As for the rest? No. At times you would be forgiven for thinking Covid didnt exist!

*I* believe the government should be doing more to encourage mask wearing. Keeping the requirement for masks at large gatherings and events might have helped maintain the behaviour. It is such a low cost public health intervention...


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## Michi

Michi said:


> This means that, for every unvaccinated person, there are 94.7 vaccinated persons.


Just goes to show that I can't think straight. For every unvaccinated person, there are 17.8 vaccinated persons, not 94.7, meaning that it's not quite as bad as I painted it. Unvaccinated people take up four times as many beds per capita, not 21 times as many. Me bad.

Not that it changes the argument: unvaccinated people are significantly more likely to end up in hospital.


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## daveb

Michi said:


> NSW Health COVID-19 Critical Intelligence Unit: COVID-19 Monitor, 14 April 2022



yada, yada, yada. Brought to you by the same folks who said mask for two weeks to flatten the curve - until it didn't. The same folks who said the vax will solve everything - until it didn't. And a whole lot more bs in between and now are still trying to guilt the few who've chosen no and blaming them for the problems.







@L, I hate to argue with the best orator on the forum but in my real world experience, every day for the last two years, the masks are meaningless feel good devices. Facilities with the most arduous PPE requirements have exactly the same postitivity rates as the surrounding population in the areas they serve. 

In my Uni days we were taught that figures don't lie but percentages can be flexible.


----------



## Michi

daveb said:


> Brought to you by the same folks who said mask for two weeks to flatten the curve - until it didn't.



How effective masks are is much harder to measure than the effectiveness of vaccines. Controlled experiments with humans are unethical and, in the absence of that, the next best thing we can do is measure mask use rates in different regions and compare those to the rates of illness. The error bars for that approach are rather large.

However, here is one piece of evidence that really gave me pause. In Australia, we went from around 300,000 flu cases per year prior to the pandemic to 384 cases two years later. Part of the reason would have to be that we closed our borders, so we stopped importing fresh cases. But a large part is the mask wearing and social distancing that happened. We stopped spreading the flu because of this, and the number of cases plummeted.

The consensus among the medical community still is that masks help. There are reasons why everyone in an operating theatre has to wear a mask. Much the same reasons apply to the flu or Covid.


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## EricEricEric

Non N95 masks do zero to stop the spread of any virus. There is zero peer reviewed studies showing non-N95 masks stop the spread of a virus.

Virus easily escape these masks as these masks are incredibly porous and virus are infinitely smaller than the holes in these various masks, not only that but high-speed aerosol particles easily pass right through these masks as well.

The masks did not work, and the shots are not true vaccinations as they do not create true immunity as you can see by the number of people in the hospitals injured or dead due to Covid even though they have received MULTIPLE shots

For most age groups Covid has a 99%+ recovery rate even without a shot. The overwhelming majority of people injured or dead are 65yr+ and have 3-4 co-morbidities making them INCREDIBLY unhealthy and sick individuals well before they ever tested positive for Covid 

Not only that 95% of those individuals are classified to have died WITH Covid and not FROM Covid

The masks and shots have been a complete and total failure. People were told to go home when they were sick instead of being tested immediately with inexpensive antiviral medication which would have significantly reduced the already low death rate


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## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> Non N95 masks do zero to stop the spread of any virus. There is zero peer reviewed studies showing non-N95 masks stop the spread of a virus.


That would not surprise me. That's probably why almost everyone here who wears a mask wears an N95 one.


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## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> The masks and shots have been a complete and total failure.


Can you explain then why unvaccinated Covid cases are so much over-represented in hospitals?


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> yada, yada, yada. Brought to you by the same folks who said mask for two weeks to flatten the curve - until it didn't. The same folks who said the vax will solve everything - until it didn't. And a whole lot more bs in between and now are still trying to guilt the few who've chosen no and blaming them for the problems.
> 
> View attachment 175311
> 
> 
> @L, I hate to argue with the best orator on the forum but in my real world experience, every day for the last two years, the masks are meaningless feel good devices. Facilities with the most arduous PPE requirements have exactly the same postitivity rates as the surrounding population in the areas they serve.
> 
> In my Uni days we were taught that figures don't lie but percentages can be flexible.



honest question how would you suggest people should interpret you nominally asking a question and when you are given an answer, a good one too, your response is basically "I never intended to listen"?

I feel bad for Marcel and Michi who have spent all this time trying to explain things in good fashion. guess it shows the power (lol) of civility.


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## tcmx3

Michi said:


> Can you explain then why unvaccinated Covid cases are so much over-represented in hospitals?



he hasnt directly answered a challenge to his position in 2 years I dont think he's gonna start now


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## EricEricEric

N95 when fitted properly, worn properly, and kept dry and sterile prevents around 95% of spread which is significant, but if someone is sick with anything at all they should be treated ASAP with antiviral and should not go anywhere else. 

I also want to remind everyone that even 5% spread is still significant and is still more than enough to infect anyone with any virus.

As I’ve said previously there is zero possibility in preventing the spread of any virus (with the exception of specific laboratories which are constructed and utilized for those specific purposes), rather the best that can be done is to simply slow the spread of a virus until a true vaccination can be produced which was never done.

The issue with viruses like coronavirus, influenza, rhinovirus, etc. is that they are highly mutagenic viruses making it impossible to create a proper vaccination that will work to produce true immunity.

That’s why it is imperative for each individual to keep their own immune system as strong as possible and be treated IMMEDIATELY once an infection is suspected. Unfortunately our governments refused to treat people immediately with antiviral medications. Also, many people are low in zinc, vitamin D, and vitamin C which play absolute critical roles in individuals immune system as proven in a plethora of studies.

Now we have people with up to 4+ injections that are still being hospitalized and still end in death regardless of the number of shots they receive. Medical authorities are torn on more injections as they produce little effect, but in some cases are actually downgrading the immune system of individuals leaving them susceptible to other viruses and even coronavirus in some cases as the natural immune system is no longer able to adapt as it’s maxed out with coronavirus shots.

This is what’s currently being seen in the UK, Australia, Israel, etc While new data comes out suggesting that natural immunity is longer lasting more adaptable and thus more effective in the long run.

It’s my opinion that the past coronavirus numbers will continue to be massaged down and the shots will be shown to be a virtual failure as time goes on.

Slowly but surely what I’ve been saying has been coming true, the media’s tune continues to change little by little.


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## jedy617

Vaccines are not a failure. For the past 2 years I have worked with CDC trained medical epidemiologists at one of the best public health departments in the country reviewing data and submitting reports. The amount of serious illness and death prevented by the vaccines have been massive. You are over 20 times more likely to wind up in the hospital after a COVID infection if you are not vaccinated. Virtual failure my ass. They are not a one size fits all solution but vaccines have lead the charge in stopping the bleeding from the pandemic. In my personal time at the health department I have viewed over 12,000 cases in my county. Every single death that has occurred has been an unvaccinated case. Take that as you will.


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## Michi

I'm still looking for an explanation as to the over-representation of unvaccinated people in hospitals. This sure suggests that the vaccines are working, even though they are not 100% effective.

As far as I am concerned, I'll probably get Covid sooner or later. And, being vaccinated, I like my chances of coming out the other side intact much better.


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## jedy617

Michi said:


> I'm still looking for an explanation as to the over-representation of unvaccinated people in hospitals. This sure suggests that the vaccines are working, even though they are not 100% effective.
> 
> As far as I am concerned, I'll probably get Covid sooner or later. And, being vaccinated, I like my chances of coming out the other side intact much better.


This is correct. I know people as old as 90 who got infected while being vaccinated and having extremely mild. I have known people have that age unvaccinated who have died (yes of course this is anecdotal) but considering the thousands of cases I personally have viewed and closed...well that isn't.


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## gregfisk

The thing that pisses me off the most is that it doesn’t matter how many times you produce extremely well implemented and thought out studies. “I will mention Michi here” no one who disagrees is willing to listen. I’m too lazy to post the hundreds of studies that show vaccinated people don’t die as often and aren’t hospitalized near as often as the unvaccinated but it’s so obvious only the most closed minded people on this planet would disagree.


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## Luftmensch

daveb said:


> @L, I hate to argue with the best orator on the forum but in my real world experience, every day for the last two years, the masks are meaningless feel good devices. Facilities with the most arduous PPE requirements have exactly the same postitivity rates as the surrounding population in the areas they serve.



I know youre being tongue-in-cheek.... but I'll take that as a compliment 

The observations I shared about mask wearing are simply my impressions. I believe them to be fairly objective. I recently moved to one of the most highly educated, least god fearing cities in our Nanny State Girt by Sea. That means the people I am watching are statistically likely to be obedient progressives. They are largely done with masks!! So this definitely isnt a political thing. Society just want to get back to their normal lives.

Look; I am not here to invalidate your lived experience. The risk factors in contracting covid are time and distance. The closer you are to a covid source and the more time you spend in proximity to that source... the higher your chances of contracting covid. Public health messaging emphasises mask wearing and washing hands because it is something individuals _can_ control. While ventilation is mentioned, it is not emphasised because it is largely out of our control. Sadly for this forum, ventilation is relevant. Kitchens are cramped busy spaces. People are doing physical jobs in a hot room. They're yelling orders at each other. After a 8-12 hour shift in a small kitchen? You have accumulated a lot of exposure time. If the kitchen is not well ventilated and a coworker is shedding, there will be a lot of airborne virus circulating. Inconsistently or improperly worn masks in that environment may be little more than a placebo. Properly worn masks may not be sufficient.

For me on my groceries run? The supermarket and shopping centers I use are big spaces albeit with high foot traffic. I try to social distance. I try to keep moving around. I am seldom there for longer than 15mins (I do 2-3 small trips rather than one big one). A mask will reduce or eliminate any virus I encounter. It is also a public courtesy. Many of the register clerks wear masks. I feel it is respectful of me to do the same. Immunocompromised people still need to shop. I feel like I should play my part in making an essential service for them safer....

But this is largely becoming academic... we are re-entering a world where you get to increasingly choose what you want to do.... look at the UK....


As for facilities with the most arduous PPE requirements? Ebola and smallpox arent known to commonly escape BSL-4 in Atlanta . As for more germane examples... I wouldnt be surprised if regular hospitals (at least in Australia) had far lower positivity rates per exposure than their neighbouring businesses.


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## MSicardCutlery

Some time ago I came across an essay by the title of "Needle Points" by Norman Doidge. It was published last October in the pre-omicron stages of the pandemic. It's over 30 pages, but an audio version exists that runs about 3 hours. 

In short it's a essay that highlights the legitimate arguments for vaccine hesitancy (not outright opposition), pharmaceutical scandals, poor research practices pertaining to the current pandemic, as well as a brief overview of some of the psychology involved in all of that. I think it's solid, and reasonably objective information, something which has been sorely lacking in almost every domain pertaining to the pandemic since its beginning.

Anyways, I've been lurking for a while around this thread and thought that some of people involved in it might be interested in such an elucidating undertaking, if they haven't already encountered the essay. So here you are gentlemen, I hope you find it useful. 

Article: Why Is There So Much Vaccine Hesitancy?

Video/Audio:


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## daveb

MarcelNL said:


> You seem to mix up a few things, a booster is indeed less effective against contracting the current variants, yet that same booster still offers good protection against severity of disease and therefore getting



I'm not mixing up anything. The vaccine that was supposed to save the world didn't. That there may be a secondary effect of reducing the effects is something that makes sense though I remain somewhat skeptical and I'm skeptical of almost everything that is asserted as fact surrounding Covid. Too much "fact" is being disseminated by folks with a vested interest in the outcomes. 

@T3 Lost your quote but I know you're only obtuse when you're trying to be. I'm not "nominally" asking questions of people on here, I am questioning "studies" that are contrary to my real world experience. At the risk of repeating myself, I work closely with 10 skilled nursing facilities in my area and spend 40 - 60 hrs/week inside one or more of them. The PPE requirements in a given facility are set by the administrator. Facilities with arduous PPE requirements have no better positivity rates that the surrounding population and are also not significantly different than facilities that only require the surgical or handmade masks. Yes it makes sense that a filtration mechanism offers a layer of protection from any airborne sort of transmission but my experience (with an admittedly small sample size) is that it's negligible. 



Luftmensch said:


> I know youre being tongue-in-cheek.... but I'll take that as a compliment



It was meant as a compliment. You set the standard for thought before words around here. And because you're so damn gracious about it, no one ever feels dumb when they're wrong (not that I would know first hand  )

I am not and never have been anti-vaccine, I am pro-choice. To my way of thinking even the vaccinate for the good of everyone collapses when the only benefit of the vax is reduced effects of the illness. Are the vaccinated less likely to contract Covid? Not even Pfizer is trying to sell that bs anymore. Are the vaccinated less contagious? Hard to accept that one when everyday world leaders, surrounded only by vaccinated peoples, test positive. So the vax choice involves individual consequences and should be an individual choice - without the shame and blame.

Too many thumbs are on the scales for me to be less cynical about "studies", mandates, and everything else this soup sandwich has turned into.


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## HumbleHomeCook

Worship at the alter of government.

Kneel before the specter of the isolated academics.

Cower in fear of your own fleeting existence.

Surrender and succumb.

There now, isn't that warm?

The establishment turns every single issue into an opportunity to take. The only two things the establishment knows how to do is take and grow. I'm a good citizen, a good neighbor, a patriot. I will sacrifice, I will adjust, I will accommodate. But only to a point and that point has long passed. 

The desire for control is only surpassed by the hypocrisy of those demanding it.

Science is only as good as those providing it. If science was so concrete, why is there so much of it that contradicts?

I'm told that those who didn't wear masks or get vaccinated (both of which I did) take up hospital bed space and it's unfair. Sure, sure. But how many beds in that hospital are full of people who did all kinds of things that could be considered unfair? If you haven't been in an emergency room on any given night in the last ten years, let me help you, it's full of illegal immigrants, welfare cases, and drug addicts. I'm none of those things. Is that fair? Am I getting too deep? Conflating issues?

I don't think so and it's because I don't think so that I guess some folks have issue with me. That's okay. What I do find interesting is how angry and demanding and intolerant so many are to my way of thinking but how willing I am to want to find common ground with them.

My wife and I got COVID. My brother in law died from it. I have an autoimmune disabled daughter who has been scared for two years. So, yeah, it has meaning to me.

I did all the things. I even did the things I knew were BS like masks. Masks, for many reasons, won't work for the populace and the CDC had that on their site before COVID. But it never stops and it's always more.

What we did to our children is shameful and it was done out of our fear. 

I lived my entire childhood in fear and swore I'd never live my life like again.

At some point ya gotta start cutting things up and making tough choices. Life is hard, life is unfair, life can be cruel, but life must go on.

Me, as an individual, is just not that important. And as important as my family is to me, neither are any of them in the grand scheme. We have to accept risk. We do it every day and we have to access those levels of risks and base it off the greater good. My disabled daughter absolutely must protect herself and we must be extremely careful in our dealings with her. But the rest of the world does not have to change for her. Business must stay open, schools must have kids, people need to live their lives.

Now, I've been on the internet since it's inception and I know I will change no minds. I'm not going to wade into debate and you can dissect what I've said as much as you'd like. I hope none of my friends on the forum who may disagree with me will react differently to me any more than I will any of you. It's okay to disagree and on that, I hope we can agree.

Be well my friends.


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## Hockey3081

HumbleHomeCook said:


> I'm told that those who didn't wear masks or get vaccinated (both of which I did) take up hospital bed space and it's unfair. Sure, sure. But how many beds in that hospital are full of people who did all kinds of things that could be considered unfair? If you haven't been in an emergency room on any given night in the last ten years, let me help you, it's full of illegal immigrants, welfare cases, and drug addicts. I'm none of those things. Is that fair? Am I getting too deep? Conflating issues?
> 
> 
> *Be well my friends. *



There is quite a bit of irony in you ending your post with “be well” when for all you know, anyone on this board reading that could be some or all of your “unfair” criteria who are taking up beds. Curious if you have statistics of the percentage of those _sub-humans _taking up beds versus anti-vax, or if that was just your way of airing your grievances.

Covid aside, do you believe that someone who is illegally in the country, relies on government subsidies and/or has a substance abuse problem does NOT deserve proper/basic medical attention?


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## HumbleHomeCook

Hockey3081 said:


> There is quite a bit of irony in you ending your post with “be well” when for all you know, anyone on this board reading that could be some or all of your “unfair” criteria who are taking up beds. Curious if you have statistics of the percentage of those _sub-humans _taking up beds versus anti-vax, or if that was just your way of airing your grievances.
> 
> Covid aside, do you believe that someone who is illegally in the country, relies on government subsidies and/or has a substance abuse problem does NOT deserve proper/basic medical attention?



Sub-humans? You did that. And that's the problem. I never said any such thing and you have no idea what my experiences are.

There's no irony in anything I said.


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## Barmoley

Hockey3081 said:


> There is quite a bit of irony in you ending your post with “be well” when for all you know, anyone on this board reading that could be some or all of your “unfair” criteria who are taking up beds. Curious if you have statistics of the percentage of those _sub-humans _taking up beds versus anti-vax, or if that was just your way of airing your grievances.
> 
> Covid aside, do you believe that someone who is illegally in the country, relies on government subsidies and/or has a substance abuse problem does NOT deserve proper/basic medical attention?


To me the point being made was that one of the main arguments for the vaccines was that since unvaccinated take up beds if they get sick it is not fair to the society at large and thus these people should be forced or at least pressured into being vaccinated. The argument being that since their actions affect others and society at large they loose the right to make this personal medical decision. As a society we make these choices all the time, many freedoms are taken away from individuals for the good of the society, this is normal and the only way to have a functional society. The question then becomes, is being vaccinated from covid falls under the same paradigm of forgoing individual freedom for the good of others. Before omicron it looked like forcing people to vaccinate was a net positive and that vaccines, mandates, school closures, etc were more important than individual freedoms. After omicron it is not as clear. Before omicron it seemed that vaccinated were unlikely to get the virus and were unlikely to spread it, so it made sense to vaccinate all to protect people who couldn’t be vaccinated. Now, it seems like vaccinated are not less likely to spread the virus. If true, then being vaccinated becomes an individual choice except that we again come back to unvaccinated taking up beds, which is unfair. This is similar to people who participate in other dangerous activities, such as playing sports, skiing, riding bikes, motorcycles, etc. These people put extra burden on our medical system purely by choice and for personal enjoyment. There is no benefit to others when I go skiing, bolder climbing or other activities I participate in. Technically, I should be either forbidden from doing these things or at least pay out of pocket if I get hurt. After all this was one of the proposals some here made for the unvaccinated who contracted covid and ended up in a hospital. I think the other examples given were in the same spirit. Most societies agree that for good of all basic emergency care should be given to anyone. Shouldn‘t then unvaccinated fall under the same umbrella, shouldn’t we then not use “taking up beds” as an argument for forcing vaccinations?


----------



## Michi

Barmoley said:


> To me the point being made was that one of the main arguments for the vaccines was that since unvaccinated take up beds if they get sick it is not fair to the society at large and thus these people should be forced or at least pressured into being vaccinated.


Strongly encouraged, maybe?

By the way, mandatory vaccination isn't anything new. We currently have a whole raft of mandatory vaccinations.

I also remember that vaccination against smallpox was mandatory when I grew up in Germany. Measles vaccination is currently compulsory in Germany as well.



> This is similar to people who participate in other dangerous activities, such as playing sports, skiing, riding bikes, motorcycles, etc. These people put extra burden on our medical system purely by choice and for personal enjoyment. There is no benefit to others when I go skiing, bolder climbing or other activities I participate in. Technically, I should be either forbidden from doing these things or at least pay out of pocket if I get hurt.


The analogy is somewhat strained because people who suffer skiing accidents don't overwhelm hospitals, whereas unvaccinated Covid patients brought our hospital system to its knees not that long ago. If people suffered skiing accidents at the same rate as people get Covid, we'd probably make skiing illegal, seeing that we can't vaccinate against skiing accidents 



> Shouldn‘t then unvaccinated fall under the same umbrella, shouldn’t we then not use “taking up beds” as an argument for forcing vaccinations?


It's not an easy call to make. It balances individual rights against society's needs as a whole. There will always be grey areas.

Note though that we don't hesitate, for example, to make seatbelts mandatory, and most people don't have much of a problem with that, whereas, many years ago, a lot of people tried to stop compulsory seatbelt laws. It is similar with firearms here. I don't have a right to bear a firearm. Instead, it is something that I have to apply for, provide good reasons for wanting a firearm, and I'm allowed to have one only if society judges me trustworthy enough.

And, of course, I can't go and drive my car when I'm over the limit without risking some serious fines and/or imprisonment.

These things all impinge on my "rights" in some way. Personally, I have no problem with mandatory vaccinations (which, as I said, we have quite a lot of already). Once the cost of treating needlessly sick people gets large enough, governments usually clamp down and declare "enough is enough". For example, we currently have a "no jab, no pay" policy for child vaccination. As a parent, if I refuse to vaccinate my child, I lose a bunch of benefits, and my child cannot attend a daycare centre. I would consider that "strong encouragement."

Homosexuality was illegal not that long ago, and it is still illegal in many countries today. That is a much harsher intrusion on personal rights than mandatory vaccination. But there was a time and place where that was considered proper and in the interest of society. Go figure…

At any rate, there is _plenty_ of precedence of governments stepping in and severely curtailing people's "rights". It's nothing new, and we do it all the time.


----------



## Barmoley

Michi said:


> Strongly encouraged, maybe?
> 
> By the way, mandatory vaccination isn't anything new. We currently have a whole raft of mandatory vaccinations.
> 
> I also remember that vaccination against smallpox was mandatory when I grew up in Germany. Measles vaccination is currently compulsory in Germany as well.
> 
> 
> The analogy is somewhat strained because people who suffer skiing accidents don't overwhelm hospitals, whereas unvaccinated Covid patients brought our hospital system to its knees not that long ago. If people suffered skiing accidents at the same rate as people get Covid, we'd probably make skiing illegal, seeing that we can't vaccinate against skiing accidents
> 
> 
> It's not an easy call to make. It balances individual rights against society's needs as a whole. There will always be grey areas.
> 
> Note though that we don't hesitate, for example, to make seatbelts mandatory, and most people don't have much of a problem with that, whereas, many years ago, a lot of people tried to stop compulsory seatbelt laws. It is similar with firearms here. I don't have a right to bear a firearm. Instead, it is something that I have to apply for, provide good reasons for wanting a firearm, and I'm allowed to have one only if society judges me trustworthy enough.
> 
> And, of course, I can't go and drive my car when I'm over the limit without risking some serious fines and/or imprisonment.
> 
> These things all impinge on my "rights" in some way. Personally, I have no problem with mandatory vaccinations (which, as I said, we have quite a lot of already). Once the cost of treating needlessly sick people gets large enough, governments usually clamp down and declare "enough is enough". For example, we currently have a "no jab, no pay" policy for child vaccination. If, as a parent, I refuse the vaccinate my child, I lose a bunch of benefits, and my child cannot attend a daycare centre. I would consider that "strong encouragement."
> 
> Homosexuality was illegal not that long ago, and it is still illegal in many countries today. That is a much harsher intrusion on personal rights than mandatory vaccination. But there was a time and place where that was considered proper and in the interest of society. Go figure…
> 
> At any rate, there is _plenty_ of precedence of governments stepping in and severely curtailing people's "rights". It's nothing new, and we do it all the time.


All good points and the reason I wrote that individual rights have to be curtailed to one degree or another for any society to work. The question is always to what degree and specifically if mandatory covid vaccines and other measures should fall under this umbrella. Like you say we already have many vaccine requirements for day care, schools and universities as well as for some jobs. The difference is that these required vaccines generally prevent vaccinated from getting the disease and when boosters are needed they are usually needed many years apart. I could be wrong, but I can‘t think of any required vaccines where one needs to be boosted very often and where breakthrough cases for vaccinated are very common. In any case my point was that the situation as it stands now is not very clear. To me vaccinating before omicron seemed like a no brained, but I am not sure now. I’ve had covid twice, before vaccines were available to me and after I got vaccinated. My coworker that is being fired for not vaccinating hasn’t had covid even once. I am not convinced that “strongly encouraging“ him is the right thing to do at this point.


----------



## Michi

Barmoley said:


> My coworker that is being fired for not vaccinating hasn’t had covid even once. I am not convinced that “strongly encouraging“ him is the right thing to do at this point.


I take your point. We are dealing with iteration four or five of the virus by now. Initially, it looked like the vaccines provided very good protection against getting infected, even if it was not perfect and the protection waned over time. This seemed to work pretty well until the end of Delta. Once Omicron showed up, the vaccines were much less effective at preventing infection, but still seem to be doing a good job at preventing severe disease. Unfortunately, the whole thing is a bloody arms race 

My best friend tested positive three days ago. It looks like the illness is not a big deal for him. He's under the weather, like with a severe cold. It seems unlikely that anything worse will come of it. He has had three shots though. It seems likely that his illness is mild because of that. (Anecdotal, I know…)

What puzzles me about vaccine hesitancy is that it seems too good a deal to knock back. What's there to lose? The worst thing that can happen is that I get Covid and, despite being vaccinated, still get a bad case of it. But chances are that I'll be better off due to the vaccine. And I'm not aware of any cases of the vaccines making the illness worse.


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## VICTOR J CREAZZI

Michi said:


> The analogy is somewhat strained because people who suffer skiing accidents don't overwhelm hospitals, whereas unvaccinated Covid patients brought our hospital system to its knees not that long ago. If people suffered skiing accidents at the same rate as people get Covid, we'd probably make skiing illegal, seeing that we can't vaccinate against skiing accidents


Not disagreeing with anything that you said, but Moab Utah did strongly discourage mountain bikers from coming there early in the pandemic to keep them from taking up the few hospital beds that they had.


----------



## Barmoley

Michi said:


> What puzzles me about vaccine hesitancy is that it seems too good a deal to knock back. What's there to lose? The worst thing that can happen is that I get Covid and, despite being vaccinated, still get a bad case of it. But chances are that I'll be better off due to the vaccine. And I'm not aware of any cases of the vaccines making the illness worse.



I also don't necessarily see what the big deal with getting the vaccine is. There are also indications that omicron is less dangerous regardless of vaccination status. At some point though if the vaccine doesn't prevent the spread, but rather protects the person who gets the vaccine then it becomes a personal choice with the only effect to others being the sick person taking someone else's bed at the hospital. At that point not doing the vaccine becomes more like participating in other dangerous activities. We can discuss scale, as you've pointed out and maybe covid unvaxed still take too many beds, but it is a somewhat different discussion than what some who see it very black and white make it out to be.


----------



## tcmx3

MSicardCutlery said:


> I think it's solid, and reasonably objective information, something which has been sorely lacking in almost every domain pertaining to the pandemic since its beginning.
> 
> Video/Audio:




I regret to inform you that this is a grifter, 'presented' by another grifter.

I recognize that it is difficult to tell which people know what they're talking about and who doesn't, especially when people start adding "Dr." in front of their name without telling you what type/where they got it, and furthermore it's hard to understand how the people like this who want to grift you present information in a way that is difficult for non-experts to distinguish from actual good work.

So consider this some friendly advice from someone who through chance happens to be able to, to not listen to the people involved in that video.


----------



## Michi

tcmx3 said:


> I regret to inform you that this is a grifter, 'presented' by another grifter.


Yes, it appears that there are a number of problems with his assertions.

Let evidence be our guide: Misinformation most insidious when it comes from health-care professionals


----------



## Luftmensch

daveb said:


> It was meant as a compliment. You set the standard for thought before words around here. And because you're so damn gracious about it, no one ever feels dumb when they're wrong (not that I would know first hand  )





Oh geeze! Well! My apologies. Self doubt: sometimes I write a lengthy post and think "is anybody really going to bother reading all of this". Perhaps that is why I doubted your comment.

I am not sure I am worthy of the compliment but I am grateful.... although... now I am going to be self conscious about trying to maintain it! 

Thank you!


----------



## EricEricEric

Another CDC update concerning masks and why they are ineffective


----------



## tcmx3

@EricEricEric

post the original source, please. no one's going to be able to actually read that figure; it looks like you snagged it from a 1993 usenet discussion of bigfoot sightings. Im sure a link to where you got it wouldnt be too much of an inconvenience.


----------



## Geigs

Funny, because here is a study that shows the exact opposite - that at a county level mask mandates were effective in decreasing incidence of infection - this is across 300+ counties covering over half the US population.


----------



## EricEricEric

Please post a source with peer reviewed data showing the efficacy of cloth masks and other non-N95 masks for Covid and stop citing masks until you do, that’s your standard, right? 

The CDC just updated their data yet once again, your article is from February and is outdated 

This is exactly what I said was going to happen with all of the coronavirus data, they were going to keep walking it back little by little

This is the reason all of the mandates are being lifted.


----------



## Geigs

EricEricEric said:


> Please post a source with peer reviewed data showing the efficacy of cloth masks and other non-N95 masks for Covid and stop citing masks until you do, that’s your standard, right?
> 
> The CDC just updated their data yet once again, your article is from February and is outdated
> 
> This is exactly what I said was going to happen with all of the coronavirus data, they were going to keep walking it back little by little
> 
> This is the reason all of the mandates are being lifted.



Where's your source? A pixellated unreadable graph is hardly a peer-reviewed anything. Also, a dataset covering half the population for 6+ months is hardly going to be outdated by a couple extra datapoints. Your arguments are tired and irrelevant.


----------



## EricEricEric

Could you explain the efficacy of a cloth bandanna versus an N 95 mask?


----------



## tcmx3

EricEricEric said:


> Please post a source with peer reviewed data showing the efficacy of cloth masks and other non-N95 masks for Covid and stop citing masks until you do, that’s your standard, right?



let's just start with posting the link to the original article containing graphic you've already posted.

it's not too much to ask

@Geigs I appreciate where you're coming from but before we start having this conversation we need to, for once, get a source here. there's no sense in engaging if we cant even get that.

@EricEricEric you posted a chart we cannot make out, with no link back to where it came from. if you are unwilling to share where you got it, you shouldn't post it.


----------



## Geigs

It's pretty sad that after 3 years of pandemic we are still stuck at debating the relative merits of cloth vs N95s and why one might be more efficacious. This is why I've avoided this thread, and why I shall once again retreat.


----------



## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> Please post a source with peer reviewed data showing the efficacy of cloth masks and other non-N95 masks for Covid and stop citing masks until you do, that’s your standard, right?


You keep harping on about cloth masks and non-N95 masks. You might as well state that "masks that don't work do not work". Very deep…

Maybe it would make more sense to talk about masks that actually _do_ work, namely N95 masks?


----------



## MarcelNL

EricEricEric said:


> Please post a source with peer reviewed data showing the efficacy of cloth masks and other non-N95 masks for Covid and stop citing masks until you do, that’s your standard, right?
> 
> The CDC just updated their data yet once again, your article is from February and is outdated
> 
> This is exactly what I said was going to happen with all of the coronavirus data, they were going to keep walking it back little by little
> 
> This is the reason all of the mandates are being lifted.



sure, the mandates are lifted because data was manipulated....nope, mandates are lifted because the virus changes and risk benefit assessments change.

For most of the world all the data points at the same thing and we see the same trends in changes in policy (except for China that is continuing their zero tolerance for Covid policy)? Perhaps the data is as correct as it reasonably can be and insights change over time, as the virus does too?


----------



## Matus

I think it is fair to say that the only reason plain cloth masks were accepted was simply it took quite a while to get N95 type masks production up to a necessary volume. I never really carried much else then N95.

Anyway - I sincerely hope that we will observe further decrease in cases and deaths that that once these type of Corona viruses will become endemic, that what will remain is not just millions of used masks somewhere in the middle of the Atlantic, but also experience for our governments that providing technical solutions is not enough for a wide spread acceptance, but opened and clear communication AND public discussion is necessary.

This time we got lucky, next virus may be a couple of times stronger and there will not be time for ad-hoc policies and day-to-day changes of rules. There are many lessons to be learned.


----------



## MarcelNL

the next candidate is already among us, we have a pretty serious bout of Bird flu in Europe. Given the amount of birds packed together in pens there is plenty opportunity for a fast breeding reactor to occurr.









Avian influenza (bird flu)


On this page, Wageningen Bioveterinary Research (WVBR) informs you about the latest bird flu (avian influenza) developments in the Netherlands. This research institute performs diagnostics for bird flu and advises the Dutch government on preventive measures.




www.wur.nl


----------



## Feiii

EricEricEric said:


> Please post a source with peer reviewed data showing the efficacy of cloth masks and other non-N95 masks for Covid and stop citing masks until you do, that’s your standard, right?
> 
> The CDC just updated their data yet once again, your article is from February and is outdated
> 
> This is exactly what I said was going to happen with all of the coronavirus data, they were going to keep walking it back little by little
> 
> This is the reason all of the mandates are being lifted.


Mandates not working and masks not working are 2 different things but you like to use it interchangeably. Fake news Eric.

You intentionally twist what something says to fit your narrative or you are talking about things you do not comprehend fully.


----------



## VICTOR J CREAZZI

VICTOR J CREAZZI said:


> I've had both Shingrix shots a few years ago. The last couple of weeks I've had what I think is hives. I was wondering if this is a mild case of shingles. Not ever having shingles I don't really know if this is the same.





VICTOR J CREAZZI said:


> After looking at wiki pictures of shingles and hives, I'm pretty certain that I have hives.


Above posts were from mid December. 

It now appears that this was a symptom of Covid. I had blood pressure issues and vertigo in the same period. I gave blood at the end of March and learned that they were doing antibody tests and that I could get results a couple weeks after my donation. The result was 'reactive+' . The test can be positive from vaccination or from the virus, but the high antibody count and the fact that the test was 6 months after my last booster makes it most likely that I had the virus.

I had wondered how I was going to time a second booster, thinking that I wanted to be most protected during the next peak, but now my plan is to give blood every 8 weeks and keep an eye on my antibodies.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

First hike since we got covid. Good to be back in the groove. North shore Hauula valley.


----------



## gregfisk

VICTOR J CREAZZI said:


> Above posts were from mid December.
> 
> It now appears that this was a symptom of Covid. I had blood pressure issues and vertigo in the same period. I gave blood at the end of March and learned that they were doing antibody tests and that I could get results a couple weeks after my donation. The result was 'reactive+' . The test can be positive from vaccination or from the virus, but the high antibody count and the fact that the test was 6 months after my last booster makes it most likely that I had the virus.
> 
> I had wondered how I was going to time a second booster, thinking that I wanted to be most protected during the next peak, but now my plan is to give blood every 8 weeks and keep an eye on my antibodies.



Funny you should mention this. I was meeting with someone last week who was giving me a bid for a new bulkhead. It was destroyed in a bad storm in November. Anyway, his eyes were blood shot and he didn’t look good at all. He starts telling me how he got Covid a couple of months earlier and ended up breaking out in hives. He said he’s feeling better but is still getting hives off and on and has a lingering cough which I heard several times. He thought his hives were shingles at first as well. I’ve had both several times and they are very different animals for sure. I told him that I believe that they can both be caused by stress but hives are more like spider bites or large mosquito bites that you’ve scratched. Shingles are small open sores and there are many of them like a rash. I hope you completely heal from this. Covid is nothing to mess around with.


----------



## VICTOR J CREAZZI

gregfisk said:


> Funny you should mention this. I was meeting with someone last week who was giving me a bid for a new bulkhead. It was destroyed in a bad storm in November. Anyway, his eyes were blood shot and he didn’t look good at all. He starts telling me how he got Covid a couple of months earlier and ended up breaking out in hives. He said he’s feeling better but is still getting hives off and on and has a lingering cough which I heard several times. He thought his hives were shingles at first as well. I’ve had both several times and they are very different animals for sure. I told him that I believe that they can both be caused by stress but hives are more like spider bites or large mosquito bites that you’ve scratched. Shingles are small open sores and there are many of them like a rash. I hope you completely heal from this. Covid is nothing to mess around with.


At one point the welts of my hives were undulating as if there were insects under my skin. I actually thought that I was hallucinating, but I asked my wife if she was seeing the same thing and she was.


----------



## EricEricEric

More new information released


----------



## Hockey3081

EricEricEric said:


> More new information released
> 
> View attachment 177669



Released by whom gives good insight into the validity.

This was a neat read…



> NVIC's Medalerts republication of Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System data, done without CDC's detailed warning of the data limitations, had led to incorrect interpretations and misleading reports attributing deaths to COVID-19 vaccines.[11] The original United States Department of Health and Human Services VAERS website is willfully cautious, containing extensive and important warnings such as "Reports of death to VAERS following vaccination do not necessarily mean the vaccine caused the death"[28] and others.[29][30] The website states :
> 
> "VAERS reports alone cannot be used to determine if a vaccine caused or contributed to an adverse event or illness. The reports may contain information that is incomplete, inaccurate, coincidental, or unverifiable. In large part, reports to VAERS are voluntary, which means they are subject to biases."[29]
> HHS's VAERS data replicated by Medalerts is known to be frequently misrepresented by anti-vaccines sources.[31]







__





National Vaccine Information Center - Wikipedia







en.m.wikipedia.org


----------



## MarcelNL

The national ******** center is something else, a few years ago we seriously wondered about the risk/benefit ratio of all vaccinations and started doing research...after a ton of reading it turned out that 99% is utter BS and most 'articles' talking about how incredibly dangerous vaccinations are turn out to be rewrites or rehashes of some retracted BS article by someone who no longer is an MD.


----------



## Michi

MarcelNL said:


> rehashes of some retracted BS article by someone who no longer is an MD


Yeah, the old MMR saga. Article was retracted, he deliberately falsified data, violated the code of ethics, and lost his MD license as a result. Doesn't stop the anti-vaxxers from dragging that BS around regardless.


----------



## MarcelNL

someone should sue them to stop that nonsense from spreading, seriously...
Likely the 'information' stays afloat as turds tend to do, everything seems to be explained by 'the XYZ conspiracy' (fill in whatever the flavor of the month is.


----------



## tcmx3

Speaking of stopping nonsense.

Folks it's time to start asking (publically) whether or not it's actually ok what Eric's doing here.

It's one thing to disagree. It's another to:

Spread low-quality, misleading information
Refuse to provide sources for said information (even a link to where he got them)
Refuse to engage with anyone
Constantly devalue the more than 6 million human lives lost to covid by repeatedly suggesting it wasn't covid that killed them
"the marketplace of ideas" isn't what's happening here. that suggests some level of interaction. that suggests some level of good faith participation. am I really alone here in thinking that this has gone on long enough?

Im not saying ban him from the forum but IMO it's time for him to take a timeout from this topic.


----------



## sansho

i question the real-world negative impact he's had here.

and your point about him devaluing human lives (though this is merely a moot, philosophical disagreement).

i agree with all of your other points. he's not enriching the discussion. i can't even read his figures, lol. i don't think i could do a better job at this point if i were trying to troll.


----------



## Barmoley

Another study from Israel about the 4th dose/second booster. Looks like it works pretty well for a short period of time, but protection against infection wains quickly. Protection against severe desease seems to last longer. Looks like it makes sense for volnurable populations and not as much for the rest.









Protection by a Fourth Dose of BNT162b2 against Omicron in Israel | NEJM


Original Article from The New England Journal of Medicine — Protection by a Fourth Dose of BNT162b2 against Omicron in Israel



www.nejm.org


----------



## Brian Weekley

Had my fourth vaccination this week. Have also had C-19 twice. Pre Delta and early omicron. The nurse who gave me the shot said I should plan for a fifth shot in September and a sixth next January. Wish I had bought stock in vaccine companies.


----------



## JASinIL2006

I got my second booster last week, after hearing - within the same week - that my mother-in-law (in Indiana) caught COVID for the second time, my brother and sister-in-law (and her live-in parents, in DC) all have COVID, and my brother-in-law (in Florida) has COVID, too. All of them were vaxxed and boosted, and the DC crew were super-careful about exposure. I had COVID before the vaccine was available, and I don't ever want to go through that again, even in mild form.

I lose a day to feeling crummy every time I get the shot, but it still is way better than having an actual case of the disease.


----------



## Barmoley

JASinIL2006 said:


> I got my second booster last week, after hearing - within the same week - that my mother-in-law (in Indiana) caught COVID for the second time, my brother and sister-in-law (and her live-in parents, in DC) all have COVID, and my brother-in-law (in Florida) has COVID, too. All of them were vaxxed and boosted, and the DC crew were super-careful about exposure. I had COVID before the vaccine was available, and I don't ever want to go through that again, even in mild form.
> 
> I lose a day to feeling crummy every time I get the shot, but it still is way better than having an actual case of the disease.


Unfortunately, at least with existing shots it looks like protection against getting the disease only lasts around 4 or so weeks. On the bright side even if you get it, it shouldn't be too bad. The goal of not going through it again even in mild form might be a pipe dream.


----------



## MarcelNL

Eventually IMHO the most realistic best outcome is that C19 becomes like a flu, vaccination protects from severe disease but we'll all get it from time to time. Not sure where the initial studies with a modified vaccine are...

Nice editorial from NEJM



https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2203329?query=recirc_mostViewed_railB_article


----------



## EricEricEric

Keep in mind the average recovery rate world wide is around 99.7%

The overwhelming majority of people being highly affected by the virus are 65 years of age and older

As a result it makes no sense for non-high risk populations to continually put themselves at risk for a vaccine that kinda works at best but



*Results: *Among 23 122 522 Nordic residents (81% vaccinated by study end; 50.2% female), 1077 incident myocarditis events and 1149 incident pericarditis events were identified. Within the 28-day period, for males and females 12 years or older combined who received a homologous schedule, the second dose was associated with higher risk of myocarditis, with adjusted IRRs of 1.75 (95% CI, 1.43-2.14) for BNT162b2 and 6.57 (95% CI, 4.64-9.28) for mRNA-1273. Among males 16 to 24 years of age, adjusted IRRs were 5.31 (95% CI, 3.68-7.68) for a second dose of BNT162b2 and 13.83 (95% CI, 8.08-23.68) for a second dose of mRNA-1273, and numbers of excess events were 5.55 (95% CI, 3.70-7.39) events per 100 000 vaccinees after the second dose of BNT162b2 and 18.39 (9.05-27.72) events per 100 000 vaccinees after the second dose of mRNA-1273. Estimates for pericarditis were similar.

*Conclusions and relevance: *Results of this large cohort study indicated that both first and second doses of mRNA vaccines were associated with increased risk of myocarditis and pericarditis. For individuals receiving 2 doses of the same vaccine, risk of myocarditis was highest among young males (aged 16-24 years) after the second dose. These findings are compatible with between 4 and 7 excess events in 28 days per 100 000 vaccinees after BNT162b2, and between 9 and 28 excess events per 100 000 vaccinees after mRNA-1273. This risk should be balanced against the benefits of protecting against severe COVID-19 disease.









SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination and Myocarditis in a Nordic Cohort Study of 23 Million Residents - PubMed


Results of this large cohort study indicated that both first and second doses of mRNA vaccines were associated with increased risk of myocarditis and pericarditis. For individuals receiving 2 doses of the same vaccine, risk of myocarditis was highest among young males (aged 16-24 years) after...




pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Wat do you mean Eric doesn't add to this thread 
It's slowed down as of late Eric posts good for another full page at least.  

Saw kids in Florida school mass shooting. Some students organized to speak about gun violence in schools. The leader was targeted by misinformation conspiracy haks. 

He says his generation grown up with school shootings & misinformation conspiracies. Started Birds aren't Real movement. Government killed off birds & replaced them with spy mechanical bird drones. Recharge batteries by standing on power lines. Poking fun at biased media that's much is made up to help push agenda. 

My sister only got vaccine because had to fly to 
see her grandkids. She used NVIC on her Facebook. When two sisters came to Hawaii in Jan. Covid was spreading. We used mask & gel 
Nobody got sick. Was surprised went she said both had shots for shingles. We live in divided country she is anti abortion looks like Roe vs Wade is going to be repealed.


----------



## daveb

Some of my own conclusions.

I would not let CDC tell me how to apply a band-aid. Completely devoid of credibility as they've followed the political winds (and the money)

The poli's that have used the crisis for political gain all suck.

Faucci's a lying sack of chit who belongs under the jail.

Pick a position and you'll find a "study" that supports it.

WHO belongs to China.

Covid definitely has origins in Lab. Whether the release was deliberate or not is still worthy of debate.

Eric's postings on here merit attention, despite whatever your own views are, simply because they represent the views of a lot of people who may think differently than you do. And he / they are certainly entitled to those opinions.

There is no smartest guy in this room.

Twitter is about to be funnier than SNL was at it's best.

Roe v Wade. Don't even think about it here.


----------



## Michi

daveb said:


> Roe v Wade. Don't even think about it here.


You brought it up first


----------



## daveb

Scroll up one post from mine. The camel is trying to get his nose under the tent.

(JK Keith)


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> Eric's postings on here merit attention, despite whatever your own views are, simply because they represent the views of a lot of people who may think differently than you do. And he / they are certainly entitled to those opinions.



that's not the argument here. he's not even the only person who has posted obviously wrong stuff.

but if he's just going to dump **** in this thread and not even respond to requests to link where he got it, that's a problem.

especially because you have a history of deciding that things that you personally agree with aren't against the rules when they _are_ based on how they're written, I find this especially ironic. and if there was any doubt that you personally believe the same stuff as Eric, well your post clears it up.


----------



## Barmoley

tcmx3 said:


> especially because you have a history of deciding that things that you personally agree with aren't against the rules when they _are_ based on how they're written, I find this especially ironic. and if there was any doubt that you personally believe the same stuff as Eric, well your post clears it up.



Sounds like your personal opinion. I haven't noticed Dave breaking the rules, but of course you'll say that it is because I agree with him, regardless if it is true or not. Then again, I don't see a problem with people expressing their opinions regardless if I agree with them or not as long as they stay within the rules set by the forum.


----------



## tcmx3

Barmoley said:


> Sounds like your personal opinion. I haven't noticed Dave breaking the rules, but of course you'll say that it is because I agree with him, regardless if it is true or not. Then again, I don't see a problem with people expressing their opinions regardless if I agree with them or not as long as they stay within the rules set by the forum.



I mean if you (or him) want to sit there and deny behavior that's happening right in the open be my guest. as the phrase goes,_ do you believe me or your lying eyes? _sorry but it's so obvious it's painful.

It's not like it's a secret with the other mods either.

Dave doesn't enforce the politics rules even close to equivalently depending on which side you land on, he doesn't enforce the BST rules (he's literally posted GLWS in a scam thread that was asking for paypal F&F instead of moderating it), frankly it's strange to me that he even wants to be a mod given his behavior.

Dave just called for the imprisonment of a civil servant for whom there is no evidence of a crime. How is that in the spirit of the no politics rule? (hint: it's not).

Am I allowed to suggest that Dave should go to prison for stealing decryption keys from a NASA lab in Santa Barbara? I mean it's patently false but let's put that aside. Is that fair game?

I feel like the point is to keep the peace. Unfortunately we have a person who believes some absolute psycho stuff in charge of that.


----------



## Keith Sinclair




----------



## Barmoley

Keith Sinclair said:


>


That's a lot of carbs. Have some  or something.


----------



## Michi

daveb said:


> Scroll up one post from mine. The camel is trying to get his nose under the tent.
> 
> (JK Keith)


Ah, I missed that. My apologies!


----------



## mpier

Barmoley said:


> That's a lot of carbs. Have some  or something.


sounds more appropriate for this thread


----------



## MarcelNL

if anyone still thinks this is a mild cold;









Covid-19's full death toll is nearly three times higher than reported, WHO data suggests | CNN


About 14.9 million people around the world died as a direct or indirect result of Covid-19 in the period between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2021, according to new estimates from the World Health Organization -- nearly three times more deaths than were officially reported.




edition.cnn.com


----------



## EricEricEric

Indirect and estimates are two huge red flags from the article 

The recovery rate for Covid is around 99.7% around the world and virtually all of those people are 65yr + with 3-4 comorbidities with the majority being around 85yr as a group

Just in USA alone we have around 3,000,000 deaths a year that are non Covid related 

It’s no more deadly than a bad year of the flu


----------



## MarcelNL

I knew it, our resident bench virologist has better insight in the data.
perhaps this helps to shed some light; 








COVID-19 vs. the Flu







www.hopkinsmedicine.org




*Flu:*_ The World Health Organization estimates that 290,000 to 650,000 people die of flu-related causes every year worldwide._

I don't think that the folks >65 like to hear being dismissed as less significant.

BTW the numbers are about death OVERAGE, which means deaths due to things that are not regular events, such as the flu (against which we're vaccinating target groups for decades now).


----------



## tcmx3

MarcelNL said:


> I knew it, our resident bench virologist has better insight in the data.
> perhaps this helps to shed some light;
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 vs. the Flu
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hopkinsmedicine.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Flu:*_ The World Health Organization estimates that 290,000 to 650,000 people die of flu-related causes every year worldwide._
> 
> I don't think that the folks >65 like to hear being dismissed as less significant.
> 
> BTW the numbers are about death OVERAGE, which means deaths due to things that are not regular events, such as the flu (against which we're vaccinating target groups for decades now).



Marcel you're missing the point, which is that your source's figures arent massively pixelated and unreadable and that just doesnt work for Eric.


----------



## EricEricEric

Keep in mind the average recovery rate world wide is around 99.7%

The overwhelming majority of people being highly affected by the virus are 65 years of age and older

As a result it makes no sense for non-high risk populations to continually put themselves at risk for a vaccine that kinda works at best but



Results: Among 23 122 522 Nordic residents (81% vaccinated by study end; 50.2% female), 1077 incident myocarditis events and 1149 incident pericarditis events were identified. Within the 28-day period, for males and females 12 years or older combined who received a homologous schedule, the second dose was associated with higher risk of myocarditis, with adjusted IRRs of 1.75 (95% CI, 1.43-2.14) for BNT162b2 and 6.57 (95% CI, 4.64-9.28) for mRNA-1273. Among males 16 to 24 years of age, adjusted IRRs were 5.31 (95% CI, 3.68-7.68) for a second dose of BNT162b2 and 13.83 (95% CI, 8.08-23.68) for a second dose of mRNA-1273, and numbers of excess events were 5.55 (95% CI, 3.70-7.39) events per 100 000 vaccinees after the second dose of BNT162b2 and 18.39 (9.05-27.72) events per 100 000 vaccinees after the second dose of mRNA-1273. Estimates for pericarditis were similar.

Conclusions and relevance: Results of this large cohort study indicated that both first and second doses of mRNA vaccines were associated with increased risk of myocarditis and pericarditis. For individuals receiving 2 doses of the same vaccine, risk of myocarditis was highest among young males (aged 16-24 years) after the second dose. These findings are compatible with between 4 and 7 excess events in 28 days per 100 000 vaccinees after BNT162b2, and between 9 and 28 excess events per 100 000 vaccinees after mRNA-1273. This risk should be balanced against the benefits of protecting against severe COVID-19 disease.










SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination and Myocarditis in a Nordic Cohort Study of 23 Million Residents - PubMed


Results of this large cohort study indicated that both first and second doses of mRNA vaccines were associated with increased risk of myocarditis and pericarditis. For individuals receiving 2 doses of the same vaccine, risk of myocarditis was highest among young males (aged 16-24 years) after...




pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


----------



## MarcelNL

tcmx3 said:


> Marcel you're missing the point, which is that your source's figures arent massively pixelated and unreadable and that just doesnt work for Eric.


sorry for the oversight! is this better?


----------



## Barmoley

MarcelNL said:


> sorry for the oversight! is this better?
> 
> 
> View attachment 178133


As much fun as it is to pick on Eric, the CNN article is of very low quality and you guys would rip it apart if it happened to say the opposite.

I also believe that covid deaths have been under reported in many countries, such as India for example. It just doesn't make sense that some countries reported very low deaths compared to the US and western Europe. Undoubtfully, some variations exist and can be explained, but I haven't seen anything that would explain huge differences between some countries. Looking at extra deaths is a valid measure if done correctly, but the article doesn't really show this and coming from CNN, I wouldn't trust it too much.

Fair is fair and if you choose to be very critical of sources that challenge your views you should probably be as critical to the sources that support them.


----------



## MarcelNL

It's not about the CNN report (would not call it an article) but about what WHO reports... There can impossibly be absolute numbers but I do think that the gist of the WHO report to be true.









The true death toll of COVID-19: estimating global excess mortality


Estimates suggest the total number of global deaths attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 is at least 3 million, representing 1.2 million more deaths than officially reported.




www.who.int


----------



## Barmoley

I also think that the gist of the WHO report is true. Specifically that covid deaths around the world are undercounted. 

The CNN report is just sensationalist and I think you would criticize it if it said the opposite. 

WHO acknowledges that it is missing data from a very significant portion of the world for both reported covid deaths and deaths as a whole, so their estimates for the world must be extrapolations based on the countries they have data for plus some assumptions. Given this, the numbers quoted in the CNN report are of very low quality. I agree that absolute numbers can't exist and we don't really know how WHO arrived at the numbers CNN reported, so we are left with just trusting that WHO numbers are at least close to reality. Given how the whole pandemic and reporting on it went from the beginning I can understand why many people are skeptical.


----------



## tcmx3

It's absolutely hysterical that any older person would engage in the "but what about the kids?" conversation.

my whole life I've seen you all do that but 100% of the time it's been about you, not us. there are like 3 ongoing political meltdowns that are ongoing and in every case it's the same way. you aren't getting exactly what you want so you use the kids as a cover story.

millenials and zoomers are sacrificing the best years of our lives to try and protect you all and you pay us back by refusing to wear a mask and by peddling absolute insanity inbetween minions memes on facebook.



Barmoley said:


> As much fun as it is to pick on Eric, the CNN article is of very low quality and you guys would rip it apart if it happened to say the opposite.
> 
> I also believe that covid deaths have been under reported in many countries, such as India for example. It just doesn't make sense that some countries reported very low deaths compared to the US and western Europe. Undoubtfully, some variations exist and can be explained, but I haven't seen anything that would explain huge differences between some countries. Looking at extra deaths is a valid measure if done correctly, but the article doesn't really show this and coming from CNN, I wouldn't trust it too much.
> 
> Fair is fair and if you choose to be very critical of sources that challenge your views you should probably be as critical to the sources that support them.



please give an outline as to why you feel the article very low quality.

"I dont like the source" and "it doesn't agree with what I think" are not acceptable answers.

you keep saying they're low quality, can you provide how you would impute those missing values and why you think this is a more valid approach?


----------



## tcmx3

like it's fine to question the WHO's statistical methodology, if you can point to specific deficiencies in it.

or are you actually suggesting that the absence of data is enough to call it "low quality" because that's... just wrong frankly. every real world data set has issues. most in developing countries are missing large portions of data.

in the real world that some folks are so keen to talk about, data cleaning, imputation, outlier exclusion etc. are part of EVERY serious statistical effort.


----------



## tcmx3

furthermore it's more than a bit disingenuous to  and say "we don't know how WHO got to these figures" when it took me about 1 minute to find a 30 page overview of their excess death statistical methodology:



https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/world-health-data-platform/covid-19-excessmortality/who_methods_for_estimating_the_excess_mortality_associated_with_the_covid-19_pandemic.pdf?sfvrsn=5a05fa76_1&download=true



also they literally list their data team:





__





Membership







www.who.int


----------



## Barmoley

tcmx3 said:


> It's absolutely hysterical that any older person would engage in the "but what about the kids?" conversation.
> 
> my whole life I've seen you all do that but 100% of the time it's been about you, not us. there are like 3 ongoing political meltdowns that are ongoing and in every case it's the same way. you aren't getting exactly what you want so you use the kids as a cover story.
> 
> millenials and zoomers are sacrificing the best years of our lives to try and protect you all and you pay us back by refusing to wear a mask and by peddling absolute insanity inbetween minions memes on facebook.
> 
> 
> 
> please give an outline as to why you feel the article very low quality.
> 
> "I dont like the source" and "it doesn't agree with what I think" are not acceptable answers.
> 
> you keep saying they're low quality, can you provide how you would impute those missing values and why you think this is a more valid approach?



I am not sure what you are talking about. I don't know how old you think I am as well as why you are harping about age all the time. How is this relevant to the discussion? I don't disagree with the WHO accretion that covid deaths are under reported around the world. I am simply pointing out that that posted CNN report is not very good and trying to explain why someone can be sceptical of it. If the link to 30 page WHO overview was posted I wouldn't say anything.


----------



## MarcelNL

I think that is a fair point to make, the CNN article is a tad alarmist even though it does refer to the source.


----------



## tcmx3

Barmoley said:


> I am not sure what you are talking about. I don't know how old you think I am as well as why you are harping about age all the time. How is this relevant to the discussion? I don't disagree with the WHO accretion that covid deaths are under reported around the world. I am simply pointing out that that posted CNN report is not very good and trying to explain why someone can be sceptical of it. If the link to 30 page WHO overview was posted I wouldn't say anything.



?

the bit above your quote isnt directed at you.

and please provide something more concrete than "not very good". not very good how?

also still waiting on how the WHO numbers are not well methoded.


----------



## daveb

tcmx3 said:


> "I dont like the source" and "it doesn't agree with what I think" are not acceptable answers.



Because it's taken?


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> Because it's taken?



you're going to have to clarify what you mean if you want me to answer.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

SARS, MERS, COVID 19 all coronavirus. 

2002-2004 only 8,000 cases worldwide SARS came from China around 1,000 died. Not only that many survivors had permanent lung and other organ damage. Much to complex to explain here. SARS considered acute respiratory coronavirus. To put it simple virus tricks the defence system of body then replicates at alarming rate shutting down respiratory system. Unable to grab oxygen with breath. Vastly reduced oxygen in bloodstream can result in death. 

MERS middle east respiratory came from Camels. Same as SARS hardly contagious but deadly. 

I'm not the smartest here but not stupid either.
Early on covid19 long before vaccine saw interview with SARS survivor had lung & kidney damage. 
I had one college coarse & ordered another wanted to know as much as I could because it was happening real time. Finished them both.
I knew internet full of agenda politics. News media biased. Put my faith in science not something pulled from internet.


----------



## Luftmensch

MarcelNL said:


> if anyone still thinks this is a mild cold;
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid-19's full death toll is nearly three times higher than reported, WHO data suggests | CNN
> 
> 
> About 14.9 million people around the world died as a direct or indirect result of Covid-19 in the period between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2021, according to new estimates from the World Health Organization -- nearly three times more deaths than were officially reported.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> edition.cnn.com



I heard a statistician participating in that work being interviewed on the radio. Interesting work. Apparently Australia & NZ had negative excess deaths due to the lockdowns!

On the other side of that; "living with Covid" has resulted in a surge of deaths in Australia. The first four months of 2022 saw _double_ the number of deaths than in the previous two years.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

When mask mandate was lifted got careless with neighborhood kids. Didn't even notice if they had any symptoms. Even tho I'm 72 our covid was mild I'm sure because had two shots & booster. That and these highly contagious strains not as strong as early COVID-19 & Delta. 
All those oxygen tanks in hospitals because people couldn't get enough on their own. The alveoli in their lungs over whelmed with virus.


----------



## mpier

tcmx3 said:


> It's absolutely hysterical that any older person would engage in the "but what about the kids?" conversation.
> 
> my whole life I've seen you all do that but 100% of the time it's been about you, not us. there are like 3 ongoing political meltdowns that are ongoing and in every case it's the same way. you aren't getting exactly what you want so you use the kids as a cover story.
> 
> millenials and zoomers are sacrificing the best years of our lives to try and protect you all and you pay us back by refusing to wear a mask and by peddling absolute insanity inbetween minions memes on facebook.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> please give an outline as to why you feel the article very low quality.
> 
> "I dont like the source" and "it doesn't agree with what I think" are not acceptable answers.
> 
> you keep saying they're low quality, can you provide how you would impute those missing values and why you think this is a more valid approach?


----------



## MarcelNL

That other crisis.....

DB edit. This thread has enough crisis's of it's own.


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> On the other side of that; "living with Covid" has resulted in a surge of deaths in Australia. The first four months of 2022 saw _double_ the number of deaths than in the previous two years.


For comparison, we have around 1100-1200 road fatalities each year. Since we stopped restrictions, we've averaged about 45 Covid fatalities per day. That's a cool 16,425 fatalities per year.


----------



## MarcelNL

MarcelNL said:


> That other crisis.....
> 
> DB edit. This thread has enough crisis's of it's own.


boohoo, so we need a new thread once birdflu affects more than foie gras?


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> For comparison, we have around 1100-1200 road fatalities each year.



Even with these petrol prices??


----------



## Keith Sinclair

I'm glad retired don't have to drive too much. Rather spend money on food than gasoline. 

Hawaii has plan for 100% clean energy only reason Hawaii ahead per capa. is a lot of people put solar panels when had net metering. 
Now need Tesla storage battery walls. Solar fell off. Hi. Electric made plan to help pay for batteries if they can draw power from them peak time 6pm-830pm. Thinking about it. We have H power burning waste, windmills, several solar farms. The biggest benefit to Hawaii electric is solar panels on roofs. 

Electric cars I'll believe it when I see it. Hawaiians like Toyota Tundra's & Ford F-150's.


----------



## MarcelNL

Just let your fellow Hawaiians do a 0-60 in ludicrous mode in a Tesla S, HIGHLY engaging I can tell you...never actually felt the blood in my brain pooling in the back of my head before, and I've driven some fast cars. The difference between an EV and a Truck is not that big since both are best driven in a straight line due to obesity anyway. ;-)


I'm on the fence with solar and EV's....for now even the absurdly high gas prices do not hurt that much unless I need to drive like 40Kkm a year, probably different when driving a gas guzzler V8.

So far our Covid rates go down, but flu etc is still pretty active as a side effect of the social distancing and lockdowns.


----------



## tcmx3

Keith Sinclair said:


> I'm glad retired don't have to drive too much. Rather spend money on food than gasoline.
> 
> Hawaii has plan for 100% clean energy only reason Hawaii ahead per capa. is a lot of people put solar panels when had net metering.
> Now need Tesla storage battery walls. Solar fell off. Hi. Electric made plan to help pay for batteries if they can draw power from them peak time 6pm-830pm. Thinking about it. We have H power burning waste, windmills, several solar farms. The biggest benefit to Hawaii electric is solar panels on roofs.
> 
> Electric cars I'll believe it when I see it. Hawaiians like Toyota Tundra's & Ford F-150's.



Ford is selling every Lightning pickup truck they can build. Also the real car companies are starting to get good electric cars out (the new BMW is getting a LOT of positive press). We're close.

Out of curiosity, are Hawaiian pickup trucks all spotless like Texan pickup trucks? Around here they're all (and there are so, so many of them) spotless unless they're hooked up to a yardwork trailer.

Anyway got no sympathy for the gas price thing. We go through this every couple of years. The folks with <5 year old pickup trucks simply have too short a memory or enough money to not care. My car needs 91 octane and doesn't get amazing gas mileage (think Ive averaged 22.5 over the years Ive had, ofc my car also has >400 horsepower) but you don't hear me complaining about it. People can tell me all day how they "feel" they need an SUV/truck around here but I've seen the statistics on average occupancy 

Food prices though we should be doing something about that. Everybody's gotta eat.


----------



## MarcelNL

which BMW do you refer to? My problem with all EVs I experienced so far is they are fun, until you hit that winding road, and it becomes clear you're drivind a lardass.

400hp is nice, my current car has 260 which is about a 100 down from the previous one but torque is quite similar (well so is top speed), gas mileage though is far better on the current car...


----------



## tcmx3

MarcelNL said:


> which BMW do you refer to? My problem with all EVs I experienced so far is they are fun, until you hit that winding road, and it becomes clear you're drivind a lardass.
> 
> 400hp is nice, my current car has 260 which is about a 100 down from the previous one but torque is quite similar (well so is top speed), gas mileage though is far better on the current car...







__





BMW i4 M50 All-Electric Performance Gran Coupe | BMW USA


Discover the future of electric performance. The high-performance BMW i4 M50 Gran Coupe includes dual electric motors delivering up to 536 horsepower, plus the legendary engineering and design of BMW M.




www.bmwusa.com





not cheap, though still a fair bit less than the current m4.

you are paying a 1200 lb weight penalty. on the other hand, it is down fairly low, and the distribution is pretty good. plus you get an actual functional car that doesn't try to reinvent every possible interface, is built well, has a good warranty, a real dealer network, etc.

a tiny percentage of people are interested in actual sports cars. those can stay ICE/hybrid for years. I dont see why commuter car owners could/should/would care how the car gets them from home to work, the grocery store, etc.


----------



## Luftmensch

tcmx3 said:


> Out of curiosity, are Hawaiian pickup trucks all spotless like Texan pickup trucks? Around here they're all (and there are so, so many of them) spotless unless they're hooked up to a yardwork trailer.



Australia is probably quite similar to USA - 'a tale of two cities' when it comes to trucks and four wheel drives. Urban centers are full of spotless four wheel drives. I guess people like their room, high driving position and offensive bulk. In the past 10-20 years this segment of the market has been flooded with luxury vehicles. Their off-road credentials are questionable - they are really all-wheel drive vehicles.

On the other hand... leave the cities and you'll find these vehicles start to look appropriate. I was in Darwin 20 years ago. At the time it felt like a frontier town. The city center was well developed and had all the comforts of a modern city (albeit on a very small scale - you wouldn't really call it a country town). But you didn't have to drive far to be in undeveloped and rugged country. Four-wheel drives were abundant and they looked _serious_.... as in covered in dirt... two to three spare tyres... tools... jacks... shovels and recovery tracks.... The place was ruled by Toyotas.

'Pickup trucks' are somewhat of an institution in Australia. Our particular version are coupes with a tray at the rear. We call them 'utes' - as in utility vehicle. The term has generalised to include any light vehicle with a tray at the rear. This segment is also split between spotless cars and 'legitimate' users. The segment evolved to develop what were essentially overpowered luxury sports cars. A really strange mix... you'd never throw a bag of cement in the back lest you scratch your 'Duco' (paint job). Nor did the one-tonne suspension and little weight at the rear make for a great handling sports car.... Then again... it is a pretty useful body type for builders and farmers. The government recently let our car industry die. True; we made stupid cars... but I had a soft spot for them and took pride in the fact that we had manufacturing. I am not sure we will see these absurd (coupe) utes mass manufactured again...

You dont really see many F150 sized 'utes' in Australia (they _do_ exist but they are uncommon). Our urban roads aren't really big enough. Navigating a F150 through the centre of some urban areas would be uncomfortably tight. That said, the Ford Ranger is fairly popular. Japanese cars are prevalent here - you see lots of 'utes' from Toyota, Nissan, Mazda, Isuzu and Mitsubishi. All these 'utes' are based around four-wheel drive chassis... rather than being muscular rear-wheel drive coupes with a utility tray.


Edit: .... oh yeah... and Aussies can shred... champions of burn outs. It is part of the driving test


----------



## Keith Sinclair

I like the looks of Hyundai Kona electric. They can't get them built fast enough & are only available in certain states. Cool folks who are taking vintage cars & converting to modern electrical systems. 

Like I've said before battery tech. has to get better. Very cold conditions effects electric cars. Also very hot too if don't have good cooling for batteries. Actually Hawaii is good place for electrics. Have seen more Tesla's on the road. 

I remember early days would see Hawaiians, Samoans etc. driving American full size cars because couldn't fit in Japanese compacts or VW beetles. Now they have Trucks & SUV. Yes the trucks can be beat up working vehicles, but many are spotless. Live close to Hawaiian homestead see polished up trucks out for weekend cruises with Hawaiian flags mounted on tailgates.


----------



## EricEricEric

Peer-reviewed

“ The positive correlation between mask usage and cases was not statistically significant (rho = 0.136, p = 0.436), while the correlation between mask usage and deaths was positive and significant (rho = 0.351, p = 0.039).”

“ The findings presented in this short communication suggest that countries with high levels of mask compliance did not perform better than those with low mask usage in the six-month period that encompassed the second European wave of COVID-19.”










Correlation Between Mask Compliance and COVID-19 Outcomes in Europe


Masking was the single most common non-pharmaceutical intervention in the course of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Most countries have implemented recommendations or mandates regarding the use of masks in public spaces. The aim of this short study was to analyse the...




www.cureus.com


----------



## captaincaed

EricEricEric said:


> The overwhelming majority of people being highly affected by the virus are 65 years of age and older



Leaving about a quarter of deaths between 45 and 65. Which ain‘t that old.

Good study. Worth noting, no deaths from myocarditis in your study, for those under 40, some deaths above 40. Getting old sucks.









SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination and Myocarditis in a Nordic Cohort Study of 23 Million Residents - PubMed


Results of this large cohort study indicated that both first and second doses of mRNA vaccines were associated with increased risk of myocarditis and pericarditis. For individuals receiving 2 doses of the same vaccine, risk of myocarditis was highest among young males (aged 16-24 years) after...




pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov





Also, you’ve compared myocarditis as an outcome of a vaccine to death as an outcome from a disease. Not really an apples to apples comparison. Yes, it’s a real and serious complication. There was a stronger ethical argument for vaccines when they reduced transmission of the ancestral variant, which isn’t really true now. Now it’s more about slowing variant mutation.

Wearing a mask still prevents spread from infected to susceptible people. Wearing pants prevents the spread of feces on chairs.

Here’s a paper I like for anyone curious about estimated infection fatality ratio by age group, one year increments (page 7).

edit: link formats wonky, but goes to a real article, and totally not to a page where you can donate to my Swiss bank account.

DEFINE_ME


----------



## MarcelNL

good attempt at a decent article in a real journal!

one issue; wearing a mask does not mean people comply with mask hygiene, which in itself points at another and bigger issue....motivation and compliance.
Seeing folks wear masks on their chin, wearing it where the chance of being caught is highest, wearing it for weeks in a row without desinfecting etc etc We have a law against smoking in bars for some years now and there are still places where around 4AM the curtains are being closed and the ashtrays appear.
Ultimately masks in the way they are worn by the general public are not the saviour, yet they can delay the period until you contract the disease by other means and can be a factor to slow down disease spread...


----------



## MarcelNL

tcmx3 said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> BMW i4 M50 All-Electric Performance Gran Coupe | BMW USA
> 
> 
> Discover the future of electric performance. The high-performance BMW i4 M50 Gran Coupe includes dual electric motors delivering up to 536 horsepower, plus the legendary engineering and design of BMW M.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bmwusa.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> not cheap, though still a fair bit less than the current m4.
> 
> you are paying a 1200 lb weight penalty. on the other hand, it is down fairly low, and the distribution is pretty good. plus you get an actual functional car that doesn't try to reinvent every possible interface, is built well, has a good warranty, a real dealer network, etc.
> 
> a tiny percentage of people are interested in actual sports cars. those can stay ICE/hybrid for years. I dont see why commuter car owners could/should/would care how the car gets them from home to work, the grocery store, etc.


nice car! I somehow missed it, thanks for pointing at it...I got stuck looking at the Polestar 2 since I HATE SUV's and these other three letter word cars that need a rattle can of spray dirt to look the part. Will do some research, 640hp is not too shabby either  One major drawback is that BMW got a 'hausverbot' by the missus...the brand status as 'proletarian car' does not work for her...(I do not mind, as long as a car has enough 'überholprestige' to get going on the Autobahn)

To the Kona, it may be a one off but a mate of me has one, and got a new drive train after 30K (km)


----------



## tcmx3

MarcelNL said:


> good attempt at a decent article in a real journal!
> 
> one issue; wearing a mask does not mean people comply with mask hygiene, which in itself points at another and bigger issue....motivation and compliance.
> Seeing folks wear masks on their chin, wearing it where the chance of being caught is highest, wearing it for weeks in a row without desinfecting etc etc We have a law against smoking in bars for some years now and there are still places where around 4AM the curtains are being closed and the ashtrays appear.
> Ultimately masks in the way they are worn by the general public are not the saviour, yet they can delay the period until you contract the disease by other means and can be a factor to slow down disease spread...



finding a significant positive correlation between mask compliance percentages and covid deaths when there is literally no mechanism for this to be possible suggests that there is probably a greater component to covid infection rates that is bulldozing masks.

I will agree that for once Eric has posted something that isnt most easily described as "psycho ****" and it was a good read.

as they stated in their own meta-analysis, there is conflicting evidence about whether masks have a positive impact depending on exactly how and what you measure. we have to think carefully though, because we know mechanically that masks do work, and ask what may result in that not being reflected in practice.

what's interesting here is how masks have become this whole thing. they were always supposed to be part of a suite of protections and a bit of a "something we can do as we wait for effective vaccines". but there are two camps here with hugely asymmetrical motivations. on one side is people who want less people to die from the disease and are willing to put up with some inconvenience. the other is politically motivated, who somehow view doing literally anything to try and help your neighbors not die as "oppression", etc.

and who ofc were the ones who could work to sabotage the whole effort by not complying then after the fact point and say "see we told you so".


----------



## EricEricEric

“In August of 2021, about 18.9% of COVID-19 deaths occurred among the vaccinated. Six months later, in February 2022, that proportional percent of deaths had increased to more than 40%.”

“More than 90% of seniors have been fully vaccinated, but a third of them have yet to receive their first booster shot. Even with overall high vaccination rates in older populations, in recent months, during the omicron surge, 73% of deaths have been among those 65 and older.”









Breakthrough deaths comprise increasing proportion of those who died from COVID-19


Experts said the increase in breakthrough deaths is to be expected with more Americans reaching full vaccination status.




abcnews.go.com


----------



## tcmx3

EricEricEric said:


> “In August of 2021, about 18.9% of COVID-19 deaths occurred among the vaccinated. Six months later, in February 2022, that proportional percent of deaths had increased to more than 40%.”
> 
> “More than 90% of seniors have been fully vaccinated, but a third of them have yet to receive their first booster shot. Even with overall high vaccination rates in older populations, in recent months, during the omicron surge, 73% of deaths have been among those 65 and older.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Breakthrough deaths comprise increasing proportion of those who died from COVID-19
> 
> 
> Experts said the increase in breakthrough deaths is to be expected with more Americans reaching full vaccination status.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> abcnews.go.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 179179



from the same article you just posted:


> In February, unvaccinated adults were 10 times more likely to die of COVID-19 compared to vaccinated individuals and five times more likely to require hospitalization, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.



congratulations. I never thought it would be you, of all people, who provided such categorical evidence that covid vaccines are effective.

everyone, please join me in thanking Eric. if even our biggest skeptic finally understands how effective vaccines are, we should applaud it!


----------



## Michi

In order to get a handle on the effectiveness of vaccines in preventing death, quoting percentages or absolute numbers is meaningless. To get an accurate picture, the per-capita rates of death of vaccinated and unvaccinated people need to be compared. As more and more people get vaccinated over time, their percentage of total fatalities increases too, because the vaccines are not perfect and there are more and more vaccinated targets.

To drive the point home, if 100% of people were vaccinated, 100% of fatalities would be among the vaccinated. That doesn't mean the vaccines don't work, only that everyone is vaccinated.


----------



## gregfisk

Michi said:


> In order to get a handle on the effectiveness of vaccines in preventing death, quoting percentages or absolute numbers I meaningless. To get an accurate picture, the per-capita rates of death of vaccinated and unvaccinated people need to be compared. As more and more people get vaccinated over time, their percentage of total fatalities increases too, because the vaccines are not perfect and there are more and more vaccinated targets.
> 
> To drive the point home, if 100% of people were vaccinated, 100% of fatalities would be among the vaccinated. That doesn't mean the vaccines don't work, only that everyone is vaccinated.


This is absolutely true. SO, why would someone constantly and consistently try to pick through the data to downplay the positive life saving effects of the vaccines? Eric, this question is for you. Why when you are presented with information from your own posted article do you never respond and only post more obviously biased one sided opinions??? What do you possibly gain from posting partial truths and debunked articles? It just blows me away that people actually believe some of this stuff. No, the vaccines don’t keep you from getting or spreading the virus and that’s too bad. The fact that we have them at all is astonishing in such a short amount of time. But they do keep people from dying and getting critically ill from Covid. That is a fact that can no longer be denied.


----------



## daveb

Michi said:


> o drive the point home, if 100% of people were vaccinated, 100% of fatalities would be among the vaccinated.


 Conversely, when 0% of people were vaccinated, 100% of fatalities were among the unvaccinated. The vaccinated percentages have indeed changed and the fatalities group has changed as well. Not sure there's a causal relationship.

And the only thing masks have changed is to make me prettier.....


----------



## Michi

daveb said:


> Conversely, when 0% of people were vaccinated, 100% of fatalities were among the unvaccinated. The vaccinated percentages have indeed changed and the fatalities group has changed as well. Not sure there's a causal relationship.


Suppose we look at fatalities among vaccinated people, and there are _x_ deaths per 100,000. And, for unvaccinated people, suppose _y_ deaths per 100,000. If _x_ and _y_ differ, and the difference is statistically significant, then we can start to think about why that might be. It could be due to being vaccinated or unvaccinated, or it could be due to other factors. (Epidemiologists are pretty good at teasing out the significant variables and eliminating sampling errors.)

All I'm pointing out here is that it is meaningless to state that "40% of deaths are among vaccinated". Because that says absolutely nothing other than "some people die despite vaccination".

If we want to know if vaccination reduces fatalities, we need to look at both vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts, and we need to look at per-capita fatalities of the overall cohorts, not just of those people who end up in hospital, otherwise it is an apples and oranges comparison.


----------



## MarcelNL

Indeed and that data (per capita fatalities) on vaccinated vs unvaccinated are widely available.
for example here;








How do death rates from COVID-19 differ between people who are vaccinated and those who are not?


To understand how the pandemic is evolving, it’s crucial to know how death rates from COVID-19 are affected by vaccination status.




ourworldindata.org








I dare say there is clear evidence that vaccination works, and booster(s) too.

Differences in general health of populations and health care access/system may be at least partial contributors to the large difference between countries.


----------



## Michi

I just listened to an NPR story on the way home in my car. It reports on a study by researchers at Brown University and Microsoft AI. NPR report that, of the 641,000 people who died after vaccines became available in the US, nearly 319,000 would still be alive if they had taken the vaccine.

So much for vaccines not working…


----------



## daveb

So......

You ridicule Eric³ for citing something from Epoch Times - and then you cite NPR?

SMH

Do you spell hypocrisy the same way we do?


----------



## MarcelNL

The citation appears to be from Brown Uni and M



Michi said:


> study by researchers at Brown University and Microsoft



As long as NPR reports the study that this data is from in a factual and corrrect way and the study is solid what's the problem? Or is listening to NPR the issue? I'm trying to understand what the issue is?

Did you read the article and is there an issue with it?


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> So......
> 
> You ridicule Eric³ for citing something from Epoch Times - and then you cite NPR?
> 
> SMH
> 
> Do you spell hypocrisy the same way we do?



absolute 


level post


----------



## EricEricEric

Fauci and FDA Say Americans Should Treat COVID-19 Like the Flu

“Covid will likely circulate globally for the foreseeable future, taking its place alongside other common respiratory viruses such as influenza.”

It’s very amazing that the rhetoric has changed so dramatically all of a sudden. It’s as if they are trying to quickly sweep it all under the rug.

The next question I have is whether or not the vaccines are actually effective, the most recent data shows that they are not and certainly were never ever 95% effective as originally claimed.

On What Basis Did Pfizer Claim 95%?

“According to a study by Jaafar et al., the authors found that when running PCR tests with 35 cycles or more – the accuracy dropped to 3%, meaning up to 97 % of positive results could be false positives.” 









On What Basis Did Pfizer Claim 95%? ⋆ Brownstone Institute


The 95% VE (vaccine efficacy) arises from the 8 confirmed Covid cases from the vaccinated group (from at least 7 days after Dose 2) compared to 162 from the placebo group. These two data points are essentially what Pfizer hang their hat on to prove their vaccine was a success.




brownstone.org





While around 20 cycles appears to be most accurate, anything greater especially 35 cycles, should have never of been used in the first place.









Correlation Between 3790 Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction–Positives Samples and Positive Cell Cultures, Including 1941 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Isolates


TO THE EDITOR—The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was declared




academic.oup.com





Finally are vaccines even safe? 

FDA restricts J&J’s COVID-19 vaccine due to blood clot risk









FDA restricts J&J's COVID-19 vaccine due to blood clot risk


WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. regulators on Thursday strictly limited who can receive Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine due to the ongoing risk of rare but serious blood clots. The Food and Drug Administration said the shot should only be given to adults who cannot receive a different vaccine or...




apnews.com





We’ve seen many Nordic countries coming to the same conclusions

FOI reveals Pfizer and Medicine Regulators hid the dangers of Covid-19 Vaccination during Pregnancy because Study found it increases risk of Birth Defects & Infertility

“According to the Centers for Disease Control’s (CDC)) Vaccine Adverse Event Database (VAERS), as of 22nd April 2022, a total of 4,113 foetal deaths have been reported as adverse reactions to the Covid-19 injections, 3,209 of which were reported against the Pfizer injection.”

All of which may be attributed to the fact that these vaccinations cause an abundance of micro blood clots depending on the individual as mentioned in the previous studies.

CDC Investigating 109 Mysterious Hepatitis Cases In Children, Including 5 Deaths

Medicine Regulators believe attenuated viruses in AstraZeneca & Janssen COVID Vaccines are to blame for rise in deadly Hepatitis among Children

The World Health Organization recently issued a ‘global alert’ about a new form of severe hepatitis affecting children.

“The current publicised, but not watertight theory is that this is due to an adenovirus. But not just any adenovirus. Evidence suggests that Medicine Regulators around the world believe it is due to an “attenuated” adenovirus variant in both the AstraZeneca and Janssen Covid-19 vaccines”

This coincides with the CDCs precautions against the J&J vaccination which unlike the mRNA vaccinations instead uses adenovirus.

Remember that these children never ever needed a covid vaccination as they were not at any real risk in the first place

FDA Contraindicates Janssen COVID Vaccine for People With Previous Thrombosis With Thrombocytopenia 

“Cases of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia following administration of the Janssen COVID-19 vaccine have been reported in males and females 18 years of age and older. The highest reporting rate of approximately one case per 100,000 doses administered in females 30-49 years of age. Overall, the FDA said approximately 1 out of 7 cases has been fatal.”









FDA Contraindicates Janssen COVID Vaccine for People With Previous Thrombosis With Thrombocytopenia


January 3, 2022 — The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently revised its Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine Fact Sheets with a contraindication for any individuals with a history of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia following the Janssen COVID-19 vaccine or any other adenovirus-vectored COVID-19...




www.dicardiology.com






“Both the J&J and AstraZeneca Covid-19 injections are viral vector gene therapies. Both allegedly work by doing the following –

First, the DNA instructions to create the SARS-CoV-2 antigen (spike protein; not the full SARS-CoV-2 virus) are inserted into a modified virus (adenovirus).

Then after the “vaccine” is injected into an individual, the viral vector delivers the spike protein DNA instructions to cells resulting in large amounts of the spike protein antigen.”



The promise and potential hazards of adenovirus gene therapy | Gut











Medicine Regulators believe attenuated viruses in AstraZeneca & Janssen COVID Vaccines are to blame for rise in deadly Hepatitis among Children


The World Health Organization recently issued a ‘global alert’ about a new form of severe hepatitis affecting children. The news came after the UK Government announced it was launching an urgent in…




expose-news.com


----------



## MarcelNL

really.....Again? Have you been smoking stuff?

Nobody is downplaying Covid, it's just that it is clear it won't go away and will revisit us regularly like the flu.

The BS institute has choses their name well, you better read up on HOW a drug (and a vaccine) gets approved, not just in the US but in quite a few countries. You can look up all the data, and even do your own statistical analysis, or trust that the math is checked and found to be OK since FDA does their own stats analysys to verify that of the company submitting data, further; a panel of experts in this field verified methodology and recommended approval and the basis for that was NOT 8 cases.

I guess you posted part of a package insert, there is no reference...again, it seems as package inserts should come with their own package insert on how to read the information.

Pregnant mothers usually are EXCLUDED from ANY study, for obvious reasons, risk assessment is usually done via animal experiments. There is nothing to hide, there usually is no data. that is why the statement about insufficient data is found in most package inserts.

If there is data from study participants (not in a study designed around pregnancy) that happen to have been or become pregnant during their participation in a study the outcome of their pregnancy may be reported but always on a voluntary basis...so by mothers if they choose to...so missingness is expected. Full disclosure is provided for the outcome of cases with reported outcome, are you aware that pregnancies carry a risk and not all pregnancy outcomes are a healthy baby? Unless you do a statistical comparison of these data against a comparable group of mothers not in any study this is simply information, without such analysis which requires a dedicated study in pregnant mothers you cannot draw any conclusion other than perhaps picking up a flag to study things in more detail.

safety; what is unsafe is NOT getting vaccinated, I think that is a better way to put it than to project a side effect (sure it's potentially serious) for one of the vaccines and is associated with a specific sub population that is being excluded, and to add to the nonsensical concoction of points brought together; the J&J vaccine is an old school vaccine, quite different from the mRNA vaccines.

Lastly an mRNA vaccine is NOT Gene therapy.


----------



## Michi

daveb said:


> You ridicule Eric³ for citing something from Epoch Times - and then you cite NPR?


I take it that you don't like NPR?

I linked to the original study and the piece NPR did on it because I like to quote my sources.


daveb said:


> SMH


I don't understand. Do you think that the study can be no good because NPR reported on it, or do you see a problem with the study?


daveb said:


> Do you spell hypocrisy the same way we do?


Do you spell "ad hominem" the same way I do?


----------



## Michi

This graphic is taken from the original study. It shows deaths in 2021 of vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts.




Or, in numbers, in 2021, per capita, for every vaccinated person who died of Covid, 47.62 unvaccinated persons died of Covid.

I guess the vaccine deniers will find a way to twist this into the opposite. People who died _with_ Covid instead of _of_ Covid, over-reporting of cases, under-reporting of cases, and so on…

It seems highly unlikely to me though that the sources of these numbers (CDC and New York Times) are out by a factor of 47, even though they inevitably will contain some errors.


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> I take it that you don't like NPR?



My understanding of American media is basic... intermediate at best... that said, I suspect NPR is received in similar ways to the ABC.

[Edit: Great point of clarification from @Michi. See below... Australia has an ABC.... as does America]


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> My understanding of American media is basic... intermediate at best... that said, I suspect NPR is received in similar ways to the ABC.


Clarification for non-Australians, that is the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, not the American version.


----------



## Luftmensch

MarcelNL said:


> 400hp is nice, my current car has 260


Sorry... this is totally inappropriate in this thread... But i just had to...

The GR Yaris from last year was pretty interesting. I only just found out about the GR Corolla (unveiled a month ago). If I had more money than sense... the GR Corolla looks practical with more 'fun' than any average person needs...


----------



## gregfisk

Luftmensch said:


> My understanding of American media is basic... intermediate at best... that said, I suspect NPR is received in similar ways to the ABC.
> 
> [Edit: Great point of clarification from @Michi. See below... Australia has an ABC.... as does America]


NPR prides itself in being a public funded neutral broadcaster and is considered fairly neutral by normal standards. Of course the right thinks it’s liberal.


----------



## tcmx3

gregfisk said:


> NPR prides itself in being a public funded neutral broadcaster and is considered fairly neutral by normal standards. Of course the right thinks it’s liberal.



I think dave should tell us what source(s) he thinks are right in the middle. neither conservative nor liberal enough to qualify as biased.

we need a baseline so we can understand why he thinks that NPR is even remotely comparable to the epoch times (which is still one of the most laughable things Ive heard anyone say on this forum)


----------



## mpier

Can we just close this thread altogether, it’s so annoying, it’s just insults and garbage at this point. You all have beaten the horse to death and sent it to the glue factory.


----------



## Chicagohawkie

mpier said:


> Can we just close this thread altogether, it’s so annoying, it’s just insults and garbage at this point. You all have beaten the horse to death and sent it to the glue factory.


Smartest guy in the room.


----------



## Luftmensch

gregfisk said:


> NPR prides itself in being a public funded neutral broadcaster and is considered fairly neutral by normal standards. Of course the right thinks it’s liberal.



Exactly the same with the ABC here (Australia).... which is why I made the remark. I drew this equivalence in response to @Michi - though I suspect he already knew . This is also why I didnt think to disambiguate 'ABC'. He would have understood which ABC I meant!

The ABC (or 'Aunty'... like the BBC) is also a high-quality/reliable source of news. It covers TV, radio and 'print' (internet). They have some real gems. It is constantly battling funding cuts and accusations of progressive bias. Conservative governments can be wary of the ABC and Murdoch hates her (government run competition).


----------



## tcmx3

mpier said:


> Can we just close this thread altogether, it’s so annoying, it’s just insults and garbage at this point. You all have beaten the horse to death and sent it to the glue factory.



nope


----------



## ian

daveb said:


> Eric³



Strong use of exponents. 

Anyone seen the 1997 movie Cube? It made me the man I am today.


----------



## Luftmensch

mpier said:


> Can we just close this thread altogether



Nah... 

If you just dip your toes in and read the most recent page... yes - it can look like a hot mess at times. I also wouldn't recommend reading it from start to finish. The thread is very 'of its time'.... so the re-read value is not high if you want to learn how to debur soft stainless steels  

For those of us who have participated since @LostHighway started it almost a year ago, there is value in this thread. We all live in our bubbles. Personally I have learned different cultural and political perspectives from this thread. I have participated in some debates throughout this thread (some heated) and I think I have grown from them. 





mpier said:


> it’s just insults and garbage at this point



Given the potential for political and ideological bickering, this thread risked going seriously off the rails. The moderators have been lenient. I am grateful for that. Equivalently.... the thread has actually been pretty civil... (if you think about alternate directions it could take). But yes; fair point.... in any thread... best keep insults out of KKF.


Finally.... COVID aint over. Yes; we're mostly living like it is 2019. But the virus has not disappeared. It is still killing large numbers of people. In fact... Australia has gone to the dogs. Our numbers are worse than 2020 (and also look bad compared to our peers)... So the topic is still relevant....


----------



## Luftmensch

ian said:


> Strong use of exponents.
> 
> Anyone seen the 1997 movie Cube? It made me the man I am today.




Which part did you identify with? The mathematician or the autistic savant?.... Or both ?

I guess the question is... is the base 'Eric' prime or non-prime?


----------



## mpier

Luftmensch said:


> Nah...
> 
> If you just dip your toes in and read the most recent page... yes - it can look like a hot mess at times. I also wouldn't recommend reading it from start to finish. The thread is very 'of its time'.... so the re-read value is not high if you want to learn how to debur soft stainless steels
> 
> For those of us who have participated since @LostHighway started it almost a year ago, there is value in this thread. We all live in our bubbles. Personally I have learned different cultural and political perspectives from this thread. I have participated in some debates throughout this thread (some heated) and I think I have grown from them.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Given the potential for political and ideological bickering, this thread risked going seriously off the rails. The moderators have been lenient. I am grateful for that. Equivalently.... the thread has actually been pretty civil... (if you think about alternate directions it could take). But yes; fair point.... in any thread... best keep insults out of KKF.
> 
> 
> Finally.... COVID aint over. Yes; we're mostly living like it is 2019. But the virus has not disappeared. It is still killing large numbers of people. In fact... Australia has gone to the dogs. Our numbers are worse than 2020 (and also look bad compared to our peers)... So the topic is still relevant....


Ya but it started out I believe to show the struggles that restaurants and it’s related employee’s we’re having do to a major crisis, which in line with KKF, now it’s just a few guys throwing BS against the wall and it has much less to do with what this community is all about. As a matter of fact at this point it is what we are not about.


----------



## gregfisk

Luftmensch said:


> Nah...
> 
> If you just dip your toes in and read the most recent page... yes - it can look like a hot mess at times. I also wouldn't recommend reading it from start to finish. The thread is very 'of its time'.... so the re-read value is not high if you want to learn how to debur soft stainless steels
> 
> For those of us who have participated since @LostHighway started it almost a year ago, there is value in this thread. We all live in our bubbles. Personally I have learned different cultural and political perspectives from this thread. I have participated in some debates throughout this thread (some heated) and I think I have grown from them.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Given the potential for political and ideological bickering, this thread risked going seriously off the rails. The moderators have been lenient. I am grateful for that. Equivalently.... the thread has actually been pretty civil... (if you think about alternate directions it could take). But yes; fair point.... in any thread... best keep insults out of KKF.
> 
> 
> Finally.... COVID aint over. Yes; we're mostly living like it is 2019. But the virus has not disappeared. It is still killing large numbers of people. In fact... Australia has gone to the dogs. Our numbers are worse than 2020 (and also look bad compared to our peers)... So the topic is still relevant....



You can’t just show up here and suggest shutting down a thread that you haven’t been actively participating in. The thread has been extremely helpful for many and eye opening for others. Yes, there have been heated debates and people getting frustrated with each other at times. I do believe at this point no one is going to change anyone else’s mind but the good data that’s been posted is very useful nonetheless. If people would actually read the data from the best scientific sources available, which there are many, perhaps minds could be swayed. But, as long as people only read what lines up with what they choose to believe, no matter how obscure the source, it’s probably a waste of time. I personally appreciate the many legitimate sources that have been linked to here and have learned quite a lot from them. Linking to articles from the likes of epoch however isn’t helpful at all.


----------



## ian

mpier said:


> Ya but it started out I believe to show the struggles that restaurants and it’s related employee’s we’re having do to a major crisis, which in line with KKF, now it’s just a few guys throwing BS against the wall and it has much less to do with what this community is all about. As a matter of fact at this point it is what we are not about.



?

The first page of the thread has basically the same character as all the rest of the pages. There was this thread, though.





__





Covid effect on restaurant industry


Hey guys i'm no pro but i've read a lot of really scary $%^# about the restaurant industry during the covid crisis. Sorry if this has been covered a ton already on the forum -- I'm just coming back after a few years messing around with other pursuits. Just wanted to say I hope you're...




www.kitchenknifeforums.com


----------



## mpier

gregfisk said:


> You can’t just show up here and suggest shutting down a thread that you haven’t been actively participating in. The thread has been extremely helpful for many and eye opening for others. Yes, there have been heated debates and people getting frustrated with each other at times. I do believe at this point no one is going to change anyone else’s mind but the good data that’s been posted is very useful nonetheless. If people would actually read the data from the best scientific sources available, which there are many, perhaps minds could be swayed. But, as long as people only read what lines up with what they choose to believe, no matter how obscure the source, it’s probably a waste of time. I personally appreciate the many legitimate sources that have been linked to here and have learned quite a lot from them. Linking to articles from the likes of epoch however isn’t helpful at all.


Yes I have read the entire thread, just because I haven’t replied to every comment doesn’t make me non active, just reading it IS active, but it has become non productive. As you you yourself stated no one is going to change there minds know and everyone can get or see the information being given. So what I’m saying is the horse is dead, put it underground and let the worm’s eat it.


----------



## ian

There's also the "Unwatch" button at the top of the page.


----------



## rmrf

Luftmensch said:


> Which part did you identify with? The mathematician or the autistic savant?.... Or both ?
> 
> I guess the question is... is the base 'Eric' prime or non-prime?


Wait, do you mean to suggest that not all mathematicians are autistic savants? My world is rocked.


ian said:


> Strong use of exponents.
> 
> Anyone seen the 1997 movie Cube? It made me the man I am today.


Did you go into math in order to be able to figure out the solution if you ever got into that situation? Or, did you go into math so that you could design a better Cube?


----------



## gregfisk

ian said:


> There's also the "Unwatch" button at the top of the page.


Exactly! Why read the entire thread and finally post just because YOU don’t want to read it anymore.


----------



## daveb

Luftmensch said:


> We all live in our bubbles. Personally I have learned different cultural and political perspectives from this thread. I have participated in some debates throughout this thread (some heated) and I think I have grown from them.


I've learned the terms Poli's (which I love) and more recently unambiguated (which spell check says is not a word but Mr Webster defines it - had to look)

For that there's value.


----------



## mpier

ian said:


> There's also the "Unwatch" button at the top of the page.


Ya I get that and I should just shut it off, but it’s like when someone farts and goes wow that stinks you still smell it and go wow that really does stink, and this thread really does stink!!!


----------



## mpier

gregfisk said:


> Exactly! Why read the entire thread and finally post just because YOU don’t want to read it anymore.


I have posted


----------



## mpier

gregfisk said:


> Exactly! Why read the entire thread and finally post just because YOU don’t want to read it anymore.


On this thread!!


----------



## mpier

gregfisk said:


> Exactly! Why read the entire thread and finally post just because YOU don’t want to read it anymore.


And not just recently, many moons ago!! Or should I go with the flow and just insult you and say why don’t you check before you post disinformation about another member!!


----------



## Michi

Maybe we could all take a deep breath and do a reset?

I do find this thread useful, I have learned a lot here, and not just from one side. I believe there is value here, if we can manage to keep things civilised.


----------



## ian

rmrf said:


> Wait, do you mean to suggest that not all mathematicians are autistic savants? My world is rocked.
> 
> Did you go into math in order to be able to figure out the solution if you ever got into that situation? Or, did you go into math so that you could design a better Cube?



Nah, I just liked when the guy was cut into precise 3 inch cubes by all those wires. That’s what got me into cooking and high end cutlery, and brought me to this site!


----------



## Luftmensch

ian said:


> Nah, I just liked when the guy was cut into precise 3 inch cubes by all those wires.



Hehe... I was going to bring that up... Memorable scene. I decided to go with prime factorisations... Seeing as I am the sort of person who has to do mental arithmetic on a calculator.... I rather suspect I'd be the giblets guy...

Cube became a cult classic... I don't think it was much of a box-office success? If you like suspense/horror (and mathematics).... its an original idea (albeit; with some mediocre acting)! In some ways it paved the road for films like Saw. If I remember right.... it was less about gratuitous violence and more about the people?? Im going to put it on the list to rewatch!!


----------



## sansho

ian⁴: Hypercube (2002)

cool movies, but i hate how they end without revealing hardly anything about the cube system.


----------



## Jovidah

Jovidah said:


> I honestly wouldn't be surprised if a lot of this misinformation was fed by outside actors. The Soviet Union had a long history of trying to feed anything that could potentially disrupt, distabilize and divide their adversaries ('active measures'). It would be naive to think that the Russian Federation and countries like China aren't doing the same thing now. What better way to knock out your competitors than have them dealing with all these COVID-related problems for years to come!
> 
> I just don't understand why some high profile figures are so willing to tag along with it though; yes you might have some short-term individual political gain but in the long-term it's just shooting your own country in the foot.


I posted this over half a year ago. I feel vindicated in that assesment when I observe how many of the COVID misinformation nonsense has almost seemlessly gone over to suddenly becoming anti-Ukrainian, anti-Zelensky etc disinformation in recent months.
The politicians and some media figures are also showing their true colors now. It's clear who's on the Kremlin's payroll...


----------



## MarcelNL

Jovidah said:


> I posted this over half a year ago. I feel vindicated in that assesment when I observe how many of the COVID misinformation nonsense has almost seemlessly gone over to suddenly becoming anti-Ukrainian, anti-Zelensky etc disinformation in recent months.
> The politicians and some media figures are also showing their true colors now. It's clear who's on the Kremlin's payroll...


I think that is an important observation, I thought I noticed soemthing similar yet I'm not in the usual social media or watching stuff on YT but from what I hear from the few Covid-sceptics around me pointed me in a similar line of thinking.


----------



## Michi

When Australia went through its wave of anti-lockdown demonstrations, many news outlets (left- and right-leaning) noticed that the demonstrations attracted a fair share of political extremists. They used the general unhappiness of the protesters as a vehicle to inject their own agenda and ideologies.

It wouldn't surprise me if a similar thing is happening with respect to the war. It makes sense: if I want to get a message across, I try to find a place for it where lots and lots of people are paying attention

In a way, the Covid thing is sort of a dead horse; most countries will have all the vaccinated people they are ever going to get by now and lockdowns are pretty much a thing of the past, so there is nowhere near as much pent-up anger as before. So, the free-riders go to where the anger has moved to.


----------



## MarcelNL

Agree with you Michi, but please don't say the L word.....our gov't has not been able/done much tangible things to alleviate the pressure on our healthcare system yet the percentage of health care workers on sick leave never has been higher.


----------



## Michi

MarcelNL said:


> our gov't has not been able/done much tangible things to alleviate the pressure on our healthcare system yet the percentage of health care workers on sick leave never has been higher.


It is much the same here. Our hospitals are groaning under the weight of Covid patients. (We are currently #2 in new per-capita infections, bested only by North Korea.) That is despite a 96% vaccination rate.

With Omicron, the vaccines really don't seem to do all that much to prevent infection. Add to this that we have done away with almost all restrictions in terms of mask use, and people's complacency when it comes to getting a booster. (Currently at 65%, but climbing only very slowly.) Another factor is that, for many people, the last vaccination is now a dim distant memory. The vaccines wane over time, so that would contribute as well.

And people are really laissez faire with the flu vaccine, so now the flu patients are adding themselves to the Covid patients and bog down the hospitals even more.

The one silver lining is that the fatality rate is very low. The vaccines are effective when it comes to preventing severe disease outcome, at least.

Still, it's a proper shitshow over here


----------



## Luftmensch

MarcelNL said:


> Agree with you Michi, but please don't say the L word.....our gov't has not been able/done much tangible things to alleviate the pressure on our healthcare system yet the percentage of health care workers on sick leave never has been higher.



Our healthcare system is decent by global standards. Like in many affluent countries our system was running under the assumption that there would be no pandemic. 

Before the pandemic the hospital system was used a staging ground for disability, geriatrics and homeless patients who had fallen through the cracks. Due to discharge rules these patient linger in hospital beds when they should be getting care from other (underfunded) services. This is still occuring... but now there is a higher load of patients due to the pandemic and less staff due to furloughs. We are also getting hit pretty hard by the Flu this year. This is a nasty confluence of conditions...

It is documented well enough (e.g. here and here.... and here... and here). Yet the majority of the population are happy to 'live with covid' however they interpret those terms. I absolutely believe more should be done to support the wellbeing of our medical community.


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> We are currently #2 in new per-capita infections, bested only by North Korea.



I wonder about this. 



Michi said:


> it's a proper shitshow over here



I fully agree! The ABC had a recent article about this. They included a paragraph early on in the piece:



> Some countries, such as Denmark, have scrapped COVID-19 testing recommendations, and others have scaled back testing regimes, meaning getting like-for-like comparisons across the world is now more difficult.



This is a decent observation and makes me skeptical of our _*exact*_ shitness rank. Still no doubt about it... there is nothing to be proud of. Our current figures are poor and we could do better.


----------



## Jovidah

Michi said:


> When Australia went through its wave of anti-lockdown demonstrations, many news outlets (left- and right-leaning) noticed that the demonstrations attracted a fair share of political extremists. They used the general unhappiness of the protesters as a vehicle to inject their own agenda and ideologies.
> 
> It wouldn't surprise me if a similar thing is happening with respect to the war. It makes sense: if I want to get a message across, I try to find a place for it where lots and lots of people are paying attention


It's the other way around rather; Russia has been feeding stuff into the extremist wings on both the left and rightt side for decades. With the far left it goes back further into the cold war. You think it's a coincidence virtually all far-left terrorism died out at the end of the cold war?

With the war it has just become extremely visible since basically overnight you suddenly see groups repeating narrative and messaging that's virtually identical regardless of where they are on the polical spectrum...and pretty much around the same timeframe. The only difficulty really is distinguishing who's a Kremlin-allied actor, who's a bot, and who's just a helpful idiot.

I just hope that governments will finally wake up now to how far Russia has already gone with destabilization and disinformation campaigns in our countries. It's like a cancer that needs to be eradicated.


----------



## Barmoley

Michi said:


> It is much the same here. Our hospitals are groaning under the weight of Covid patients. (We are currently #2 in new per-capita infections, bested only by North Korea.) That is despite a 96% vaccination rate.
> 
> With Omicron, the vaccines really don't seem to do all that much to prevent infection. Add to this that we have done away with almost all restrictions in terms of mask use, and people's complacency when it comes to getting a booster. (Currently at 65%, but climbing only very slowly.) Another factor is that, for many people, the last vaccination is now a dim distant memory. The vaccines wane over time, so that would contribute as well.
> 
> And people are really laissez faire with the flu vaccine, so now the flu patients are adding themselves to the Covid patients and bog down the hospitals even more.
> 
> The one silver lining is that the fatality rate is very low. The vaccines are effective when it comes to preventing severe disease outcome, at least.
> 
> Still, it's a proper shitshow over here


Do people go to the hospitals for care even though they are not severely sick? Or is it more due to the sheer number of people getting this, so that even small percentage of severe cases is a large number? Vaccines are supposed to be pretty good for not getting seriously sick and ending up at a hospital.


----------



## MarcelNL

the sheer numbers are overwhelming, 1% breakthtrough cases in the vaccinated of which 40% is >55-60 makes for huge quantities of potential severily ill patients (forgive me the exact numbers, just asa n off the cuff example)


----------



## Barmoley

MarcelNL said:


> the sheer numbers are overwhelming, 1% breakthtrough cases in the vaccinated of which 40% is >55-60 makes for huge quantities of potential severily ill patients (forgive me the exact numbers, just asa n off the cuff example)


Understood, just specifically asking about situation in Oz. We are not seeing same in California so far even though cases are going up significantly. I am curious if this is due to Australia being spared earlier on due to stricter lock downs and general abidance by the rules or just us lagging. As we've all found out, vaccines are not very good at preventing infection with omicron and variants.


----------



## Nemo

Barmoley said:


> Do people go to the hospitals for care even though they are not severely sick? Or is it more due to the sheer number of people getting this, so that even small percentage of severe cases is a large number? Vaccines are supposed to be pretty good for not getting seriously sick and ending up at a hospital.


The pressure on the hospital systems (there is a separate system in each state) is complicated and multifactorial. People do turn up to hospital when they are severely unwell. In my observation, the extra burden imposed covid patients taking up beds is responsible for only a part of the pressure on hospitals. A lot the people that I have seen who are very sick are not up to date with vaccination (IIRC, NSW has a 95%plus double vax rate but only a 65ish% triple vax rate) and/ or immunocompromised.

A big part of the problem is that there has been chronic underfunding of hospitals to the point where they were severely stretched under normal circumstances.

Add in:
1) Staff shortages due to illness and isolation (not to mention the many people who are burned out and have left the health industry).
2) Inefficiencies caused by the extra effort required to provide routine health care during a pandemic (having to wear PPE, take other precautions, test patients, isolate patients and modify the workflows and spaces that the hospitals were designed for to accomodate these changes).
3) The additional burden of emergency work (caused by the backlog of routine healthcare and surgery having not dealt with preventable health problems in time)...

and it's not hard to see how an already stretched system can be pushed to breaking point.


----------



## Nemo

Barmoley said:


> Understood, just specifically asking about situation in Oz. We are not seeing same in California so far even though cases are going up significantly. I am curious if this is due to Australia being spared earlier on due to stricter lock downs and general abidance by the rules or just us lagging. As we've all found out, vaccines are not very good at preventing infection with omicron and variants.


My impression is that after 2ish years of fairly strict covid control measures most people are "over" covid, even if covid isn't over them. Maybe like a rebound effect.

The semi - explicit contract was kinda like "help us control the virus until everyone is vaccinated, then everything will be OK" and this was broadly accepted. Now people expect everything to be OK. So there is absolutely zero political will to reinstitute control measures, even relatively mild ones like masks in crowded indoor settings.

Few wear masks or avoid high risk transmission situations, so transmission is out of control here. For example, I know multiple people who have caught covid at (separate) weddings in the last couple of weeks. As mentioned, our high vax rates are great at preventing severe disease in most people but not so good at reducing transmission. So we have the highest (or second highest?) transmission rate in the world (although our testing is probably more comprehensive than some places, so this may be exaggerated). Nonetheless, our death rates are very low by world standards even though most of the population has had covid (many have had it multiple times).


----------



## Michi

Barmoley said:


> Understood, just specifically asking about situation in Oz. We are not seeing same in California so far even though cases are going up significantly. I am curious if this is due to Australia being spared earlier on due to stricter lock downs and general abidance by the rules or just us lagging. As we've all found out, vaccines are not very good at preventing infection with omicron and variants.


Well, we dropped almost all restrictions. Face masks are required only in health care settings (hospitals, pharmacies, aged care homes, etc.), on public transport and taxis, airports and planes. Mask requirements are not enforced. During a recent pharmacy visit, I saw that about half the patrons did not wear a mask, despite big signs pointing out the mask requirement. Pharmacy staff made no attempt to enforce the requirement. (I can see why; those workers are not security guards and don't want to spend their entire day arguing with people who decide that the rules don't apply to them.)

When someone tests positive, they are required to isolate for seven days. There is no requirement to have a negative test before leaving isolation, and the isolation requirement is not enforced in any way.

People are supposed to report on a website if they test positive on a RAT test. I strongly suspect that a large number of people couldn't be bothered though.

Tracking daily infections is now far less reliable than it was in the past. PCR tests are still counted accurately, but RAT tests are not. PCR positivity rate is between 5% and 10%, meaning that a large number of infections remain undetected.

Daily new infections are at around 50,000 and trending up. For comparison, that is the US equivalent of 600,000 new cases per day. The actual number of infections likely is much higher.

About 3,000 people are currently hospitalised with Covid, and around 40-45 people die each day. (As I said, that's a low death rate, by some definition of "low". That still is about 15 times the number of road fatalities.) There is no political will to try and curb infections, and it seems that we have decided to simply shrug our shoulders at 45 new deaths every day as an acceptable price.

Australia was spared for a long time because we closed the borders and, by and large, social distancing, lock-downs, and masks did a lot to limit the spread. Omicron is a lot more infectious than earlier variants. Combined with essentially no restrictions, that sent case numbers through the roof. Vaccine effectiveness is waning, so we are seeing more and more cases of people getting Covid for a second time.

I don't know whether the US is lagging Australia and will get another bad spike, or whether the US will be spared due to having had so many infections that herd immunity starts to affect case numbers.

At any rate, our hospitals are in deep trouble, and nurses and other medical professionals are leaving in droves because they can't take it any longer. And flu cases are starting to go up, making things worse.

It's a bad situation


----------



## Barmoley

Michi said:


> Well, we dropped almost all restrictions. Face masks are required only in health care settings (hospitals, pharmacies, aged care homes, etc.), on public transport and taxis, airports and planes. Mask requirements are not enforced. During a recent pharmacy visit, I saw that about half the patrons did not wear a mask, despite big signs pointing out the mask requirement. Pharmacy staff made no attempt to enforce the requirement. (I can see why; those workers are not security guards and don't want to spend their entire day arguing with people who decide that the rules don't apply to them.)
> 
> When someone tests positive, they are required to isolate for seven days. There is no requirement to have a negative test before leaving isolation, and the isolation requirement is not enforced in any way.
> 
> People are supposed to report on a website if they test positive on a RAT test. I strongly suspect that a large number of people couldn't be bothered though.
> 
> Tracking daily infections is now far less reliable than it was in the past. PCR tests are still counted accurately, but RAT tests are not. PCR positivity rate is between 5% and 10%, meaning that a large number of infections remain undetected.
> 
> Daily new infections are at around 50,000 and trending up. For comparison, that is the US equivalent of 600,000 new cases per day. The actual number of infections likely is much higher.
> 
> About 3,000 people are currently hospitalised with Covid, and around 40-45 people die each day. (As I said, that's a low death rate, by some definition of "low". That still is about 15 times the number of road fatalities.) There is no political will to try and curb infections, and it seems that we have decided to simply shrug our shoulders at 45 new deaths every day as an acceptable price.
> 
> Australia was spared for a long time because we closed the borders and, by and large, social distancing, lock-downs, and masks did a lot to limit the spread. Omicron is a lot more infectious than earlier variants. Combined with essentially no restrictions, that sent case numbers through the roof. Vaccine effectiveness is waning, so we are seeing more and more cases of people getting Covid for a second time.
> 
> I don't know whether the US is lagging Australia and will get another bad spike, or whether the US will be spared due to having had so many infections that herd immunity starts to affect case numbers.
> 
> At any rate, our hospitals are in deep trouble, and nurses and other medical professionals are leaving in droves because they can't take it any longer. And flu cases are starting to go up, making things worse.
> 
> It's a bad situation


I am sorry to hear this. This sounds like what we had earlier around February time when omicron became the main variant.


----------



## Luftmensch

Barmoley said:


> I am curious if this is due to Australia being spared earlier on due to stricter lock downs and general abidance by the rules or just us lagging.



For non-Australian readers. If you open the international news and thumb through to the last page.... you may have noticed that we have an election on Saturday.

The polls got it seriously wrong last election. The Opposition was expected to win and they did not. Currently the polls are struggling to predict an outcome with any confidence. There are _many_ interesting things going on in this election - a lot of big factors.

Neither party want to touch the future of covid as a major talking point.



Nemo said:


> So there is absolutely zero political will to reinstitute control measures, even relatively mild ones like masks in crowded indoor settings.





Michi said:


> There is no political will to try and curb infections, and it seems that we have decided to simply shrug our shoulders at 45 new deaths every day as an acceptable price.



I suspect the lack of will is because it is too easy for either side to weaponise covid. The Opposition can prosecute past covid missteps by the Government. If the opposition offered tighter policy, the Government could run a campaign on freedoms. It is politically convenient to maintain the status quo. There _almost_ seems like there is a gentleman's agreement not to discuss it.

I also suspect it is a reflection of polling (the era of conviction politics is very far off in our rear view mirror). Again... this seems bipartisan. Being 'strong on covid' is not an election winning strategy for either side - assuming that is what either of the major parties wanted to do. While I am an advocate for more being done to reduce the burden on our hospital system... covid has consumed _a lot of oxygen_ for the past two years. Lets be honest.... our major parties have not done much else for the past two years. I think the country is restless and wants to see other major issues being addressed. I am sympathetic to this. I foreshadowed this in post  #1,819.

I am not willing to bet who will win... and it wouldnt be appropriate for this forum. *If* the incumbents lose, i think it is fair to say covid has played a role. Not just covid but the other crises we had - the 2019 bushfires and the floods. Disaster and pestilence has been an exhausting background malaise for three years. We have been watching how the Government responded. Yet the same is not true for the Opposition - it harder for _disinterested_ voters to ignore what the Government _did_ than to make an assessment on what the Opposition _might_ have done (better or worse). After all, there is a political adage in Australia: "Oppositions dont win elections; Governments lose them".

I say this all dispassionately. I would strongly prefer we had a less partisan political ecosystem where we could discuss the current state of covid objectively, without it being an election issue (or any policy area for that matter).... but we dont...


----------



## Jovidah

Nemo said:


> My impression is that after 2ish years of fairly strict covid control measures most people are "over" covid, even if covid isn't over them.


I think this is the case almost everywhere at this point.
What's most worrysome is how we'll deal with another big wave in the future... because there's less and less enthusiasm for restrictions.


----------



## chefknife69

covid has changed the world as we know it , and not for good


----------



## Luftmensch

Luftmensch said:


> I am not willing to bet who will win... and it wouldnt be appropriate for this forum. *If* the incumbents lose, i think it is fair to say covid has played a role. Not just covid but the other crises we had - the 2019 bushfires and the floods.



The major results are in... albeit; votes are still being counted:

The Liberal party (Incumbents - the 'conservative' party) have had a wipe out
The Labor party (Opposition - the 'progressive' party) will form the next government
The Labor party has not secured enough seats (currently) to form a majority Government
Another few days of counting will see whether the Labor party can Govern with a majority or will need to strike a deal with the cross-bench


In the wash, the headline outcome is that the Liberal party _lost_ its mandate to govern. While Labour (the Opposition) have picked up a few seats (currently only 3), according to the current count, seats have swung _away_ from the Liberals (the incumbents). The swing appears to be mainly _towards_ independent candidates. If you are engaged with Australian politics... this is quite interesting. It looks like a deterioration of the 'two party system'. Votes are being siphoned off to independent candidates. These candidates can narrow-cast to their electorate alone. They do not need to walk the tightrope of balancing conflicting views between regional and urban votes (particularly with regards to climate change). This is something that the major parties have struggled to negotiate in recent years.

Australia has had fire, flood, pestilence and plague in the past three years (our electoral term). We have had a parliamentary #MeToo movement. We have had a deterioration in confidence in our parliamentary integrity (corruption). I put it to you, the reader, it is impossible to pull apart the sum of these issues from the whole. The net effect of that sum, is that the voting public has losts its confidence in the incumbent/previous Government.

If anybody thinks this is a political statement. I refer back to my previous observation:



Luftmensch said:


> "Oppositions dont win elections; Governments lose them".



I think it is difficult to paint the current numbers in a different light.


----------



## MarcelNL

A move to one person fractions seems universal, not that is works as the process of reaching agreements becomes increasingly difficult. To me the system needs a change, from party politics to having the public vote for choices more like the Swiss do.

The covid situation in Germany was interesting, a mask was supposedly only required on local public transportation but nowhere else...had I known that we would sit 4 hours in the high speed train wearing a mask I'd have opted to drive the 6 hours to Munich.
For now Monkey pox appear to become a new potential issue, not sure how that comes about....from monkeying around too much?


----------



## Jovidah

For all the problems party politics have... I'm not sure having individual referenda is really the answer. It makes it impossible to do popular but necessary policies, it creates a massive opportunity for disinformation and manipulation campaigns to sway the public, and most of the time, especially on more technical issues, most people simply won't have a clue what they're voting on, or they're making choices based on false believes and assumptions.
Direct democracy only really works if you have a truly informed public... which is sadly not the case when it comes to a lot of issues.

Monkey pox... it's all speculation but I know of one potential source... and the timing is to say the least rather remarkable:
https://www.nonproliferation.org/wp-content/uploads/npr/alibek63.pdf
But it could simply be imported the regular way from abroad. I can imagine health authorities are busy tracing it all back at this point.


----------



## Luftmensch

MarcelNL said:


> A move to one person fractions seems universal, not that is works as the process of reaching agreements becomes increasingly difficult.



_Maybe_... There are two ways to paint this. One is that consensus is too difficult to reach - nobody has enough clout to pass legislation. The other is that forcing the majority party to negotiate means we end up with representative centrist policies - nobody has authority to ram policy through the system.

The bulk of our new independents are called 'teal independents'. They are slated to be economically 'conservative' but socially 'progressive'. Indeed, the teal independents have more or less exclusively picked up traditionally 'conservative' seats. Australia has lagged behind our allies in climate change policy. Suburbanites are punishing the Government for this. Many of the independent swings have occured in traditionally conservative, suburban electorates. This has been done on a platform that includes action on addressing climate change. Like I said before, both parties have struggled to find a middle ground on this issue. It is difficult for them to be 'progressive', they will alienate rural/mining seats. Similarly, if they are too 'conservative', they will lose suburban seats. Independents don't have this problem. They only need to speak to their electorate! This is why you see a swing away from the previous Government towards independents.

Will this create chaos? Will it create difficulty in reaching consensus? It depends which country. It depends who you ask. If you ask *me* in Australia... NO!!!! Yes; every party/representative will be forced to work harder to deliver for their constituents. But that is their job. For the 'average' Australian this ought to mean more representative policy. That said; it relies on our elected representatives having enough maturity to negotiate. For big ticket items.... I do believe this will happen.

It is too early to count our chickens. Majority Labor? Minority Labor? One of them will happen....either way, I have ZERO problem with independent representatives advocating for their specific constituencies.


----------



## LostHighway

chefknife69 said:


> covid has changed the world as we know it , and not for good



I'm not sure how much covid has actually changed the world as opposed to just shining a light on human tendencies that were already present but perhaps were a little less publicly visible.

"But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

I can't think of a single national government that has acquitted itself well with regard to covid policy and the behavior of the general public certainly doesn't augur for a brighter future. In the US the performance of the professional technocratic class in the form of the CDC and the NIH haven't exactly inspired confidence either.


----------



## KingShapton

Jovidah said:


> Monkey pox... it's all speculation but I know of one potential source... and the timing is to say the least rather remarkable:
> https://www.nonproliferation.org/wp-content/uploads/npr/alibek63.pdf
> But it could simply be imported the regular way from abroad. I can imagine health authorities are busy tracing it all back at this point.


Heavy reading!

I knew, superficially, a little bit about biological weapons and related research. But if you read this text, it becomes clear again what kind of sick **** that was and still is!

And considering the cases of monkeypox that are occurring right now.. I really hope that kind of monkeypox is of natural origin!!! I keep my fingers crossed!


----------



## tcmx3

LostHighway said:


> I'm not sure how much covid has actually changed the world as opposed to just shining a light on human tendencies that were already present but perhaps were a little less publicly visible.
> 
> "But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51
> 
> I can't think of a single national government that has acquitted itself well with regard to covid policy and the behavior of the general public certainly doesn't augur for a brighter future. In the US the performance of the professional technocratic class in the form of the CDC and the NIH haven't exactly inspired confidence either.



yes, it is so strange to me how people in America especially hate the government while in the next breadth praise America itself.

it's hysterical that the one thing Dave and I agree on is that the current admin (and the last, too) arent addressing covid on the facts, but are instead trying to prevent electoral wipe outs. The number of people who will die to serve the ego of two septuagenarians is disgusting.

oh also on the hospital front, in the US it REALLY isn't helping that so many hospitals have been bought up and brought into corporate hospital firm ways of doing things. the system was always heading for disaster if it ever got stressed. we were piling bodies up in trucks a while ago but no one seems to be out for blood from the people who set us up for that.

absolutely typical


----------



## MarcelNL

A country gets the health care system it pays for....errr the government it votes for, and through that a health care system they pay for...or they don't. I don't think it's fair to put that on the adminstration as it's a system (not) in place for decades.

In the past 2 decades I have worked with hospitals throughout (most of) the world and there are few countries that I know of where healthcare is so F%^$&# up as in the US.

Health Care in the US is ridiculously expensive and revenue focussed while at the same time full of CYA due to the habitual claims culture. There must be as many people without access because they cannot afford insurance or pay directly as there are folks living in one of the largest states (about 1 in 10 I believe is without insurance, at least that percentage appears to be inclusive and diverse...). Let's not even begin to talk about those who are underinsured.


----------



## tcmx3

MarcelNL said:


> A country gets the health care system it pays for....errr the government it votes for, and through that a health care system they pay for...or they don't. I don't think it's fair to put that on the adminstration as it's a system (not) in place for decades.
> 
> In the past 2 decades I have worked with hospitals throughout (most of) the world and there are few countries that I know of where healthcare is so F%^$&# up as in the US.
> 
> Health Care in the US is ridiculously expensive and revenue focussed while at the same time full of CYA due to the habitual claims culture. There must be as many people without access because they cannot afford insurance or pay directly as there are folks living in one of the largest states (about 1 in 10 I believe is without insurance, at least that percentage appears to be inclusive and diverse...). Let's not even begin to talk about those who are underinsured.



to be clear Marcel, I would not argue that the US health care system is very good in any capacity (except nominally for some super advanced stuff though that is overblown as researchers around the world are very good too, obviously), but it _is_ also true that most of the hospitals have been aggregated lately and the new owners are not primarily focused on providing excess capacity, or even full capacity.

it's a contributing factor, not the only or even primary one, is what Im saying.


----------



## MarcelNL

tcmx3 said:


> to be clear Marcel, I would not argue that the US health care system is very good in any capacity (except nominally for some super advanced stuff though that is overblown as researchers around the world are very good too, obviously), but it _is_ also true that most of the hospitals have been aggregated lately and the new owners are not primarily focused on providing excess capacity, or even full capacity.
> 
> it's a contributing factor, not the only or even primary one, is what Im saying.


Sure, I did understand it that way, just that I think/suspect the real problem was not Covid itself or how it was handled...but we'll never know as the 'overage'deaths do include those dying of limited or no access to health care (sure there are numbers on that too).


----------



## EricEricEric

A very interesting read where every point is followed with citations to supporting studies.


As we look back we see that a lot of things that were being labeled as false have become known to in fact be true, and things that were labeled as true have become known to be 100% false.

COVID UPDATE: What is the truth?

“ For the first time in American history a president, governors, mayors, hospital administrators and federal bureaucrats are determining medical treatments based not on accurate scientifically based or even experience based information, but rather to force the acceptance of special forms of care and “prevention”—including remdesivir, use of respirators and ultimately a series of essentially untested messenger RNA vaccines. For the first time in history medical treatment, protocols are not being formulated based on the experience of the physicians treating the largest number of patients successfully, but rather individuals and bureaucracies that have never treated a single patient—including Anthony Fauci, Bill Gates, EcoHealth Alliance, the CDC, WHO, state public health officers and hospital administrators.[23,38]”


“Dr. Peter McCullough, one of the most cited experts in his field, who has successfully treated over 2000 COVID patients by using a protocol of early treatment (which the so-called experts completely ignored), has been the victim of a particularly vicious assault by those benefiting financially from the vaccines. He has published his results in peer reviewed journals, reporting an 80% reduction in hospitalizations and a 75% reduction in deaths by using early treatment.[44] Despite this, he is under an unrelenting series of attacks by the information controllers, none of which have treated a single patient.“

“ Previous experience with the flu vaccines clearly demonstrates that the safety studies done by researchers and clinical doctors with ties to pharmaceutical companies were essentially all either poorly done or purposefully designed to falsely show safety and coverup side effects and complications. This was dramatically demonstrated with the previously mentioned phony studies designed to indicate that hydroxy Chloroquine and Ivermectin were ineffective and too dangerous to use.[34,36,37] These fake studies resulted in millions of deaths and severe health disasters worldwide. As stated, 80% of all deaths were unnecessary and could have been prevented with inexpensive, safe repurposed medications with a very long safety history among millions who have taken them for decades or even a lifetime.[43,44]”









COVID UPDATE: What is the truth?







www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


----------



## JASinIL2006

That journal, Surgical Neurology International, has an impact factor score of .86, which means almost no one cites that journal’s articles in other scientific articles. 

It also has an acceptance rate of 100%, which means pretty much any crackpot article can get published in it.


----------



## tcmx3

EricEricEric said:


> A very interesting read where every point is followed with citations to supporting studies.
> 
> 
> As we look back we see that a lot of things that were being labeled as false have become known to in fact be true, and things that were labeled as true have become known to be 100% false.
> 
> COVID UPDATE: What is the truth?
> 
> “ For the first time in American history a president, governors, mayors, hospital administrators and federal bureaucrats are determining medical treatments based not on accurate scientifically based or even experience based information, but rather to force the acceptance of special forms of care and “prevention”—including remdesivir, use of respirators and ultimately a series of essentially untested messenger RNA vaccines. For the first time in history medical treatment, protocols are not being formulated based on the experience of the physicians treating the largest number of patients successfully, but rather individuals and bureaucracies that have never treated a single patient—including Anthony Fauci, Bill Gates, EcoHealth Alliance, the CDC, WHO, state public health officers and hospital administrators.[23,38]”
> 
> 
> “Dr. Peter McCullough, one of the most cited experts in his field, who has successfully treated over 2000 COVID patients by using a protocol of early treatment (which the so-called experts completely ignored), has been the victim of a particularly vicious assault by those benefiting financially from the vaccines. He has published his results in peer reviewed journals, reporting an 80% reduction in hospitalizations and a 75% reduction in deaths by using early treatment.[44] Despite this, he is under an unrelenting series of attacks by the information controllers, none of which have treated a single patient.“
> 
> “ Previous experience with the flu vaccines clearly demonstrates that the safety studies done by researchers and clinical doctors with ties to pharmaceutical companies were essentially all either poorly done or purposefully designed to falsely show safety and coverup side effects and complications. This was dramatically demonstrated with the previously mentioned phony studies designed to indicate that hydroxy Chloroquine and Ivermectin were ineffective and too dangerous to use.[34,36,37] These fake studies resulted in millions of deaths and severe health disasters worldwide. As stated, 80% of all deaths were unnecessary and could have been prevented with inexpensive, safe repurposed medications with a very long safety history among millions who have taken them for decades or even a lifetime.[43,44]”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID UPDATE: What is the truth?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov



I have never read a more pathetic account of self victimization in my life

also Eric back on the horse dewormer train lmao. it's retro at this point I guess


----------



## gregfisk

EricEricEric said:


> A very interesting read where every point is followed with citations to supporting studies.
> 
> 
> As we look back we see that a lot of things that were being labeled as false have become known to in fact be true, and things that were labeled as true have become known to be 100% false.
> 
> COVID UPDATE: What is the truth?
> 
> “ For the first time in American history a president, governors, mayors, hospital administrators and federal bureaucrats are determining medical treatments based not on accurate scientifically based or even experience based information, but rather to force the acceptance of special forms of care and “prevention”—including remdesivir, use of respirators and ultimately a series of essentially untested messenger RNA vaccines. For the first time in history medical treatment, protocols are not being formulated based on the experience of the physicians treating the largest number of patients successfully, but rather individuals and bureaucracies that have never treated a single patient—including Anthony Fauci, Bill Gates, EcoHealth Alliance, the CDC, WHO, state public health officers and hospital administrators.[23,38]”
> 
> 
> “Dr. Peter McCullough, one of the most cited experts in his field, who has successfully treated over 2000 COVID patients by using a protocol of early treatment (which the so-called experts completely ignored), has been the victim of a particularly vicious assault by those benefiting financially from the vaccines. He has published his results in peer reviewed journals, reporting an 80% reduction in hospitalizations and a 75% reduction in deaths by using early treatment.[44] Despite this, he is under an unrelenting series of attacks by the information controllers, none of which have treated a single patient.“
> 
> “ Previous experience with the flu vaccines clearly demonstrates that the safety studies done by researchers and clinical doctors with ties to pharmaceutical companies were essentially all either poorly done or purposefully designed to falsely show safety and coverup side effects and complications. This was dramatically demonstrated with the previously mentioned phony studies designed to indicate that hydroxy Chloroquine and Ivermectin were ineffective and too dangerous to use.[34,36,37] These fake studies resulted in millions of deaths and severe health disasters worldwide. As stated, 80% of all deaths were unnecessary and could have been prevented with inexpensive, safe repurposed medications with a very long safety history among millions who have taken them for decades or even a lifetime.[43,44]”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID UPDATE: What is the truth?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


That opinion piece has to be the most non informative article that I have ever read. Talk about a tasteless non filling nothing burger . And no, even though I’m still hungry I don’t want another one.


----------



## Michi

EricEricEric said:


> For the first time in history medical treatment, protocols are not being formulated based on the experience of the physicians treating the largest number of patients successfully, but rather individuals and bureaucracies that have never treated a single patient—including Anthony Fauci, Bill Gates, EcoHealth Alliance, the CDC, WHO, state public health officers and hospital administrators.[23,38]”


Right. It's all a big conspiracy. The CDC, WHO, and all these other people are plotting to make sure that as many people as possible die of Covid. Makes perfect sense, doesn't it?


EricEricEric said:


> “Dr. Peter McCullough […] has been the victim of a particularly vicious assault by those benefiting financially from the vaccines. He has published his results in peer reviewed journals, reporting an 80% reduction in hospitalizations and a 75% reduction in deaths by using early treatment.[44] Despite this, he is under an unrelenting series of attacks by the information controllers, none of which have treated a single patient.“


Poor Dr McCullough, who is so terribly misunderstood and unfairly prosecuted. He, among other things, has claimed that the pandemic was planned and that health authorities have conspired to prevent Covid patients from getting early treatment. These, and other outrageous claims, have been thoroughly debunked.


EricEricEric said:


> This was dramatically demonstrated with the previously mentioned phony studies designed to indicate that hydroxy Chloroquine and Ivermectin were ineffective and too dangerous to use.[34,36,37] These fake studies resulted in millions of deaths and severe health disasters worldwide.


I see. Another conspiracy. Millions of people died because they didn't take medication that doesn't work. Most certainly.

Let me add a little to the list:

Americans never landed on the moon, that was a hoax.
The earth is flat.
9/11 was an inside job.
The government is hiding an alien spacecraft at Area 51.
Did I miss anything?


----------



## MarcelNL

It keeps me amazed how much of this fluff floats around, and how the authors always seem to forget the international situation...try coordinate something across a few states, let alone dozens of countries is impossible, not even big old mean pharma can coodinate that...

@Michi I think you summed up the largest conspiracies, Ukrain may surface as another one as the conspiracy theorists seem to be drinking from a similar well about that one too.


----------



## Michi

MarcelNL said:


> Ukrain may surface as another one as the conspiracy theorists seem to be drinking from a similar well about that one too.


I cannot wait…


----------



## MarcelNL

well, over here a Summer wave seems to be 'happening' and this likely is the explanation....



https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2206576



BA4 and BA5 seem to be good at escaping antibody responses, yet vaccination stil prevents from getting severily ill. Let's hope that is true....FWIW my GF came doen with another case of Covid, and it was worse than last time but still not anywhere near a severe illness.


----------



## KingShapton

The summer wave is also building up here in Germany, you can watch it - both in the official figures and in everyday life.

I find it bad that it was foreseeable when you observed the situation in other countries, but nobody in our population was interested.

In Germany, at least in the area where I live, 95% of the population behave as if there is no more Covid.

Worse, a few days ago we had a handyman at the apartment due to an emergency. My wife asked him to put on a mask at the apartment door and explained to him that I belong to the risk group due to my health condition. The answer was: "Covid?! That doesn't exist anymore, that's over!" She had to have a serious discussion with him so that he would still put on a mask. (Of course we also wore masks).

I totally understand that everyone wishes that Covid was "over" but I just can't understand the ignorance of many people. And that many people do not understand that with their behavior they are contributing to the fact that Covid is not over, or that it is becoming more harmless, i.e. endemic.

Of course, for many people Covid is not that dangerous at first, but for many it is. And then there are the cases of Long Covid - the numbers of them in Germany are also increasing again and there are far too few therapy places. Plus the fact that there are always new mutations that nobody can predict if they are more dangerous than the previous ones.

In summary: Covid is Sh#t but unfortunately so is the behavior of many people!

I have to add something, I'm increasingly noticing that you (here in Germany) are stared at like an alien if you wear a mask in public. It has happened to me and my wife several times that we were made fun of with stupid comments about it....sad and incomprehensible!

The fact that the masks are not comfortable is a fact that most people no longer wear them because there is no official obligation to do so is also a fact It's stupid, stupid but understandable
But that you have to justify yourself for wearing a mask for reasons of your own safety is simply incomprehensible, sad and it makes me more than angry!

How can anyone exercise the right to make fun of another human being who is taking measures to protect himself and his health and that of his family? I just don't get it!!


----------



## EricEricEric

The masks don’t work, everyone is getting sick regardless of wearing a mask or being vaccinated 

A vaccination so good you still get sick and you still die, that doesn’t make any sense.

Before anybody had the vaccination the recovery rate was still over 99% depending on your age group and risk factors

The overwhelming majority of people who contract Covid recover just fine regardless.

The same people continue to die regardless of vaccination status, 65 years of age or older multiple comorbidities

99%+ of humanity is still just fine and will continue to be fine regardless of vaccination status or wearing a mask

Everyone at my hospital has been sick with Covid including myself regardless of all the boosters that we have been taking

My colleague’s 85-year-old mother who has well over four comorbidities contracted covid and recovered after receiving anti-viral medicine at Queens Hospital

Her whole entire family became sick with C19 even though they wear masks at home gloves everything as everybody works in the medical field

They have completely done a 180 and change their minds and now see the light ie antiviral treatment at the first sign of symptoms 

My colleague’s one year old became ill with C19, she was recovered within three days, my girlfriend got sick she was recovered within three days, virtually everybody I know has recovered within three days regardless of vaccination status

I took two weeks to recover as I had strep (which I tested positive for) on top of the C19. The only symptom I had from the latest Covid strain was severe fatigue with zero coughing or any other symptom


----------



## MarcelNL

nice anecdotes, problem is that the anecdotal evidence that my grandfather who smoked like chimney and did not contract lung cancer in his lifetime does not mean smoking can not cause lung cancer.
Youy are also still ignoring the peer reviewed literature telling a vastly diferent story than what seems to be your rigid opinion.
The earth is flat.


----------



## Michi

MarcelNL said:


> The earth is flat.


Yep.


----------



## inferno

it was decided covid19 is done. 

the new thing is mopox22


----------



## gregfisk

Just because some people, okay most people are okay after getting Covid doesn’t change the FACT that hundreds of thousands have died FROM COVID. The logic some people try to use to justify their ignorance is mind boggling. My 57 year old cousin almost died from Covid before there was a vaccine. He is still having health issues from getting it almost 2 years ago and spending 8 days in the hospital. My cousin’s friends who belonged to the same church were avid bike riders and in really great shape, yet they both died from Covid. Don’t think about that while you spew your nonsense across the internet though. If masks don’t work then why do surgeons and all of the hospitals staff wear them while taking care of people in the hospital? The lack of common sense from some humans on this planet is astounding. Unfortunately, intelligent humans have figured out how to keep even the dumbest people alive, so it’s no longer the survival of the fittest or the smartest. Too bad...


----------



## Michi

The Lancet just published a study that suggests 20 million lives have been saved by vaccines.

(Australian) ABC article here.


----------



## Jovidah

Can't wait for people to blame the vaccines for contributing to overpopulation and food shortages...


----------



## inferno

i blame the vaxx for:

war in ukraine
high gas prices
high electricity prices
supply chain delays
money inflation
recession

i mean this all started after the vaxx

prove me wrong!!


----------



## Michi

Long-term study of people who recovered from the Alpha variant of Covid. It suggests that among the long-term damage is cognitive impairment.

COVID cognitive decline more widespread than thought


----------



## gregfisk

inferno said:


> i blame the vaxx for:
> 
> war in ukraine
> high gas prices
> high electricity prices
> supply chain delays
> money inflation
> recession
> 
> i mean this all started after the vaxx
> 
> prove me wrong!!


You know, now that I think about it, all of those things happened after I joined KKF. Hmmmm.


----------



## daveb

gregfisk said:


> You know, now that I think about it, all of those things happened after I joined KKF. Hmmmm.


So it's your fault???

I'll let Joe know soonest.


----------



## inferno

gregfisk said:


> You know, now that I think about it, all of those things happened after I joined KKF. Hmmmm.


this is indeed an odd coincidence. 

this leads me to believe that you somehow have conspired with the vaxx to make all those things happen.


----------



## tcmx3

Someone help me understand the difference between when Eric says:

_The same people continue to die regardless of vaccination status, 65 years of age or older multiple comorbidities_

And in the 80s when people said:

_AIDs isn't a big deal because the people dying are..._

I just fail to see how these aren't the same statement.


----------



## MarcelNL

@tcmx3 I also noticed that similarity, at some point 'individualism' evolves in egoism, in my view that point is already passed when folks say things like this.


----------



## Jovidah

I still don't understand how people try to downplay the whole thing pointing at 'comorbidity' thing when at least half the US population has one or even multiple pre-existing conditions...


----------



## EricEricEric

Because people who are vaccinated even boosted to the gills etc. are still dying and the people that are still dying are the people with advanced age AND 3-4 comorbidities


The stats for the people dying that are not vaccinated vs vaccinated are still the same, they’re the same people regardless of vaccination status and they still die whether they are vaccinated or not

That’s not a success, That’s a total failure


----------



## MarcelNL

boosted to the gills...now how does that look? Using examples to illustrate a point for a whole society is a total failure.

Please go read an article on statistics, then something about covid and relative risk, forget the desinformation floating around on the net...
Not an easy read but reading a few pages a day may be worthwhile; http://www.biostathandbook.com/HandbookBioStatThird.pdf


----------



## Matus

Eric, what put you on a crusade? I have rarely seen someone so persistent in trying to prove a point that does not exist. For all means you can consider all the official data and research wrong, manipulated or fake, but what drives you in trying to convince everyone else?


----------



## EricEricEric

Because antiviral medication has the potential to save far more lives. Not from just coronavirus, but influenza, para influenza, adenovirus, rhinovirus, etc as well

Even if you have 5+ vaccinations for coronavirus it’s still only mildly effective at best. Every time the virus mutates the old vaccination loses its effectiveness even more and it wasn’t effective to begin with.

The vaccinations don’t prevent spread either, nor do the masks as no one is 100% using an N95 correctly 100% of the time and a N95 mask even when worn perfectly isn’t N100. It’s absolutely impossible to avoid infection unless you live in a remote area that never encounters contamination from said virus.

It would be far more effective to push to get everybody into a healthy state and to use antiviral medication immediately upon infection and/or exposure

My goal is to actually save people‘s lives and not align myself with corporations, idealogs, or party politics like others are doing.

A vaccination that still allows people to die is not effective and it’s not okay. Also, that’s not even considering all of the harm the vaccinations have caused as well which only compounds the harm that’s been done

Imagine if they immediately started treating everybody from the very beginning with antiviral medication instead of telling them to just go home until the symptoms get worse and then come to the hospital and then everyone having to wait for a vaccination to be created that doesn’t even work properly.

When a new virus comes about we will have to repeat this whole absurd cycle all over again when we could just use antiviral medication.


----------



## MarcelNL

EricEricEric said:


> It would be far more effective to push to get everybody into a healthy state and to use antiviral medication immediately upon infection and/or exposure


best of luck with getting everyone to a healthy state...


EricEricEric said:


> My goal is to actually save people‘s lives and not align myself with corporations, idealogs, or party politics like others are doing.


sounds very altruistic and I don't doubt you mean it, yet I happen to think you may be working in the opposite direction by what you communicate. BTW; I am not sure who you accuse of 'aligning with corporations idealogs or party politics' and if so what the issue with that is when saving lives is the goal.



EricEricEric said:


> A vaccination that still allows people to die is not effective and it’s not okay. Also, that’s not even considering all of the harm the vaccinations have caused as well which only compounds the harm that’s been done


A vaccination does not 'allow' anything, NO drug/treatment is 100% effective..


EricEricEric said:


> Imagine if they immediately started treating everybody from the very beginning with antiviral medication instead of telling them to just go home until the symptoms get worse and then come to the hospital and then everyone having to wait for a vaccination to be created that doesn’t even work properly.


sure...did you read up on their efficacy? and availability?









Efficacy of antiviral therapies for COVID-19: a systematic review of randomized controlled trials - PubMed


Although select antivirals have exhibited efficacy to improve clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients, none demonstrated efficacy in reducing mortality. Larger RCTs are needed to conclusively establish efficacy.




pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov




*Conclusions: *Although select antivirals have exhibited efficacy to improve clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients, none demonstrated efficacy in reducing mortality. Larger RCTs are needed to conclusively establish efficacy.



EricEricEric said:


> When a new virus comes about we will have to repeat this whole absurd cycle all over again when we could just use antiviral medication.


yes we likely will, and we might need to run a few studies to see if the new antivirals work against that new virus, and if safety is still OK.

Bottom line, masks do not work, vaccines do not work, antivirals do not work, or...just perhaps, things are not this black and white and there is a middle ground; use all means we have to the best of our abilities.
(which IMHO is exactly what is being done)


----------



## daveb

Me thinks Covid has become a bit like religion. You believe what you're going to believe.

There are studies that support every point of view. Nobody believes the ones that don't support their views. Everyone thinks that their side is supported by "empirical" evidence. Everyone wonders why everyone doesn't feel the same way they do. 

E3 has no monopoly on the "facts" but neither do his naysayers.


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> Me thinks Covid has become a bit like religion. You believe what you're going to believe.
> 
> There are studies that support every point of view. Nobody believes the ones that don't support their views. Everyone thinks that their side is supported by "empirical" evidence. Everyone wonders why everyone doesn't feel the same way they do.
> 
> E3 has no monopoly on the "facts" but neither do his naysayers.



This self-important both-sidsing is really unhelpful.

And there are not equal claims to empiricism, all of the people with actual expertise in stats and epidemiology are on one side.

Also you yourself pulled the mask off more or less instantly the last time this was brought up. You only care about "evidence" for about 5 seconds. To suggest that you and I are in any way, shape or form approaching the evidence around covid equally is insulting.


----------



## shopshopshop

The consistent spread and spouting of vaccine misinformation in this thread that's been going on for the entire time I've been on this forum is honestly sickening.

Users who spread such misinformation or support it do not deserve this forum as a platform and should be banned.


----------



## gregfisk

shopshopshop said:


> The consistent spread and spouting of vaccine misinformation in this thread that's been going on for the entire time I've been on this forum is honestly sickening.
> 
> Users who spread such misinformation or support it do not deserve this forum as a platform and should be banned.


I can’t even believe that people who spew disinformation on a constant basis here believe it is equal in any sense of the word to real data. If you really believe that the fruit cakes who post consistently debunked information on a regular basis actually equals the scientific community’s view of the best way to combat the virus, then I don’t think there’s any way to save you from the rabbit hole you’ve decided to jump into. There is nothing equal about the nut jobs putting out untested and unsubstantiated information and the scientific world views that their community’s are following. There’s a reason why the scientific community has a United front, and it’s not some conspiracy to create a new world order. This reminds me of the “every 4 year” nonsense that the right puts out saying that Democrat’s want to take your guns away. It’s absolute nonsense and will never happen.


----------



## EricEricEric

Age and sex-specific risks of myocarditis and pericarditis following Covid-19 messenger RNA vaccines









Age and sex-specific risks of myocarditis and pericarditis following Covid-19 messenger RNA vaccines - PubMed


Cases of myocarditis and pericarditis have been reported following the receipt of Covid-19 mRNA vaccines. As vaccination campaigns are still to be extended, we aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the association, by vaccine and across sex and age groups. Using nationwide hospital...




pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov





Damage to the heart like this does not magically go away with time, it only get worse over time leading to more issues and a shorter life span. 

The sad part is that this demographic is virtually unaffected by C19 and recover 99%+ of the time even without vaccination.

However, they’ve now gambled with their own lives, and we will see this damage unfold slowly over time.


----------



## daveb

All the people with actual expertise except those you dismiss. 

Next thing you'll be calling me a heretic cause I don't believe in your religion.

How's that two weeks to flatten the curve working out?


----------



## MarcelNL

@EricEricEric A real article, nice for a change....yet I wonder if you tried to interpret what the numbers mean in a country the size of France? Did you verify the death rate due to Covid in that age cohort? I did, and it's not 0 as you seem to believe. FYI, the death rate in France in this age group was some 150 and counting, 
The data is readily accessible for everyone.

Is myocarditis a nasty side effect? sure, it's the reason why some vaccines are not administered to some groups, did anyone die of this myocarditis? How many in this age cohort have long term effect of Covid, or wait, did you look up what the incidence of contracting myocarditis due to Covid? Did you compare the severity of their disease burden?

the incidence of myocarditis after Covid vaccination is somewhere around 70 per Million doses Myocarditis Cases Reported After mRNA-Based COVID-19 Vaccination in the US From December 2020 to August 2021

The incidence of myocarditis as side effect of Covid is higher, at 450 per million cases....interestingly it's the same age group that scores big.









Risk of Myocarditis from COVID-19 Infection in People Under Age 20: A Population-Based Analysis - PubMed


Myocarditis (or pericarditis or myopericarditis) from primary COVID19 infection occurred at a rate as high as 450 per million in young males. Young males infected with the virus are up 6 times more likely to develop myocarditis as those who have received the vaccine.




pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov





*Conclusions: *Myocarditis (or pericarditis or myopericarditis) from primary COVID19 infection occurred at a rate as high as 450 per million in young males. *Young males infected with the virus are up 6 times more likely to develop myocarditis as those who have received the vaccine.*

For anyone who believes the risk benefit ratio is not constantly monitored and evaluated:








Use of mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine After Reports of ...


This report describes the Advisory Committee on Immunization ...




www.cdc.gov






Do not forget to smell and chew if you're spoon fed even when it's 'data', you may be eating chewy lumps that turn out to have been made of ****.


----------



## MarcelNL

daveb said:


> Me thinks Covid has become a bit like religion. You believe what you're going to believe.
> 
> There are studies that support every point of view. Nobody believes the ones that don't support their views. Everyone thinks that their side is supported by "empirical" evidence. Everyone wonders why everyone doesn't feel the same way they do.
> 
> E3 has no monopoly on the "facts" but neither do his naysayers.


the difference is that E3 is consistently using snippets of information taken out of context and using them to illustrate points that are not supported by all of the data...OK with me if that is out of ignorance, or from being naive or being too lazy to look up the facts yet we've IMO far exceeded the point where ignorance or laziness turns into knowingly spreading desinformation.

Shouting 'the earth is flat'does not make it true, no matter how often it is repeated, no matter how many people shout the message. The data on Covid, Vaccines and plenty more is readily available for all with an interest, yes it may take some explaining to be able to interpret it. It took me like 15 minutes to pull some relevant articles in my previous post. If the inability to understand the information was the issue there would be no beef with spreading misinformation, yet one would expect to see the poster start asking questions rather than repeatedly posing solid opinions that defy the bulk of the available scientific data.

On studies that support every point of view? Only when you willingly ignore the breadth of information out there, the scientific community is pretty unanimous on Covid and Vaccination or did you not notice?


----------



## Michi

Longitudinal study on long Covid:

Long COVID burden and risk factors in 10 UK longitudinal studies and electronic health records

TL;DR: The older someone is, the more likely they are to end up with long Covid. Women are about 50% more likely to get long Covid than men.


----------



## gregfisk

daveb said:


> All the people with actual expertise except those you dismiss.
> 
> Next thing you'll be calling me a heretic cause I don't believe in your religion.
> 
> How's that two weeks to flatten the curve working out?


First of all I don’t believe in religion but you are welcome to believe whatever you like. My issue is with people who spread disinformation “like religious people” and harm others along the way.


----------



## MarcelNL

I wondered for a while what effect vaccination has on long Covid, and this post made me look it up as it did not mention anything about that, likely because the data is from too early for many folks to have been vaccinated (O wonder of the modern age, all that info is at our fingertips)



Michi said:


> Longitudinal study on long Covid:
> 
> Long COVID burden and risk factors in 10 UK longitudinal studies and electronic health records
> 
> TL;DR: The older someone is, the more likely they are to end up with long Covid. Women are about 50% more likely to get long Covid than men.




smaller study showing a pretty large difference;








Trajectory of long covid symptoms after covid-19 vaccination: community based cohort study


Objective To estimate associations between covid-19 vaccination and long covid symptoms in adults with SARS-CoV-2 infection before vaccination. Design Observational cohort study. Setting Community dwelling population, UK. Participants 28 356 participants in the Office for National Statistics...




www.bmj.com





MUCH larger study showing a 15% or so reduction in risk of contracting long Covid after being vaccinated, also saying that dropping masks (AKA not wearing one) might not be a great idea.








Long COVID risk falls only slightly after vaccination, huge study shows


Results suggest that vaccines offer less protection against lingering symptoms than expected.




www.nature.com





bottom line; the jury is still out on the absolute incidence rate, outcomes, prevention and/or therapies for long Covid. Yeah it's a mild flu


----------



## sansho

well, i finally caught it. symptoms aren't a big deal so far. some nasal congestion, swollen-feeling (but oddly not sore) throat, and fatigue.

i hope i don't get long covid. i need all the cognitive ability i can get  lol


----------



## Barmoley

sansho said:


> well, i finally caught it. symptoms aren't a big deal so far. some nasal congestion, swollen-feeling (but oddly not sore) throat, and fatigue.
> 
> i hope i don't get long covid. i need all the cognitive ability i can get  lol


Long covid seems to be a lot less likely with omicron variants, so your odds are good. In general, from many reports and studies it seems like starting with omicron the virus has changed a lot compared to the original and delta. This to some degree creates more confusion when we discuss covid as a whole since symptoms, vaccine effectiveness, consequences can be very different from the beginning of the pandemic to now. Pharma is almost ready with the new vaccines that will target omicron variants specifically, so these hopefully will be more effective at preventing spread and catching the disease.


----------



## MarcelNL

When you find yourself watching nothing but pulp on TV for a day or two you can be sure you got it...


----------



## tcmx3

daveb said:


> All the people with actual expertise except those you dismiss.
> 
> Next thing you'll be calling me a heretic cause I don't believe in your religion.
> 
> How's that two weeks to flatten the curve working out?



You have never provided any of this supposed counter evidence that exists. again, the last time I asked the mask came off instantly and you lost your mind and went on a whole rant about how you don't care about empiricism at all.

I mean this with all due respect, which for you is actual factual zero, you don't have the qualifications to judge anyone's expertise around data.


----------



## daveb

Yawn...


----------



## sansho

well, now i have hyposmia. some smells are completely gone, and others are harder to detect.

before covid existed, i had _complete_ anosmia from some kind of viral upper respiratory infection. vodka and whisky were the same. vodka didn't even have ethanol flavor. just the chemesthetic sensations of cooling and irritation.

my olfaction eventually recovered, but i could never tell if it came back 100%. it's not like i took some fancy olfactory test before and after. laugh if you want (i did as well at my own expense), but it honestly caused me stress and anxiety (and still does sometimes).

so now it's that fuϲking bullꮪhit all over again. lol


----------



## sansho

i would have totally taken paxlovid to arrest replication before my olfaction was affected. it seems totally possible that it could reduce risks of such ongoing disease side effects. i just didn't know it was available, and i wasn't thinking straight a few days ago. drats.


----------



## inferno

sansho said:


> well, now i have hyposmia. some smells are completely gone, and others are harder to detect.



then you still have corona inside your body!! its not gone.


----------



## inferno

me personally i think people need to decide for themselves if they should take the vaxx or not.
if you dont. dont. easy as that.

if you think you need it. take it!! for me, this **** is over. long gone. and its the same for everyone else here too.

personally i see no reason at all to take it. i mean since the oslo incident in dec 2021 it was proven that the vaxx dont do jack **** for omicron. so why even bother. 
it even seems it has the reverse effect on omicrom. that is you are more likely to not get if you are unvaxxed. lol. what a ****ing joke this all is. i'm not preventing anyone from taking it though. 

good vaxx though. you can still get the disease and still spread it when vaxxed. who the **** makes this **** up really?


----------



## sansho

inferno said:


> then you still have corona inside your body!! its not gone.


I am actively contagious and symptomatic. Also still testing positive.


----------



## sansho

inferno said:


> me personally i think people need to decide for themselves if they should take the vaxx or not.
> if you dont. dont. easy as that.
> 
> if you think you need it. take it!! for me, this **** is over. long gone. and its the same for everyone else here too.
> 
> personally i see no reason at all to take it. i mean since the oslo incident in dec 2021 it was proven that the vaxx dont do jack **** for omicron. so why even bother.
> it even seems it has the reverse effect on omicrom. that is you are more likely to not get if you are unvaxxed. lol. what a ****ing joke this all is. i'm not preventing anyone from taking it though.
> 
> good vaxx though. you can still get the disease and still spread it when vaxxed. who the **** makes this **** up really?



What's so surprising about evasion via mutation? Basic selection pressure biology 101 stuff. Coronaviruses are pretty good at it. So is influenza.

Doesn't mean vaxxing isn't helpful in general. Even for SARS-CoV-2.

IMHO I wouldn't bother getting the current vaccines since omicron variants dominate now. But it was a good idea before, and it will probably be a good idea again with updates. 

The mRNA vax platform owns.


----------



## inferno

sansho said:


> I am actively contagious and symptomatic. Also still testing positive.



but many people have no smell after 6 months or so. then they still have it. easy as that. they just takes test samples where its not at basically.


----------



## inferno

sansho said:


> What's so surprising about evasion via mutation? Basic selection pressure biology 101 stuff. Coronaviruses are pretty good at it. So is influenza.
> 
> Doesn't mean vaxxing isn't helpful in general. Even for SARS-CoV-2.
> 
> IMHO I wouldn't bother getting the current vaccines since omicron variants dominate now. But it was a good idea before, and it will probably be a good idea again with updates.
> 
> The mRNA vax platform owns.



exactly. i said the same thing when i first heard about the virus from china. mutations. no vaxx will work. i read medicine in school.

to be honest i dont know if it was ever a good idea to inject some experimental chemical that was banned for human use for 25 years or so. since it was too dangerous. and where the manufacturer


----------



## sansho

inferno said:


> but many people have no smell after 6 months or so. then they still have it. easy as that. they just takes test samples where its not at basically.



The mechanism isn't well understood honestly, but I don't think it works like that.

I.e. even if it can persist in the body, I don't think that eliminating it with the wave of a magic wand is likely to rapidly resolve olfactory issues in "long CoViD" context. Likewise, I don't think resolution of symptoms is in and of itself a strong indicator of complete absence of viral material in the body.

There's damage done by cell death, inflammation, altered gene expression, etc. It's an issue that takes time to resolve. And luck to completely resolve.


----------



## sansho

Better late than never I hope


----------



## Barmoley

sansho said:


> Better late than never I hope


It will get better. Main idea is not to panic. Even if it doesn't come back fully, it will be OK, and it will get better. I panicked too when I originally lost smell and taste fully after getting one of the original variants. Taste came back fully at least enough that it doesn't bother or affect my life at all. Smell took longer and ultimately is not fully back or not the same, but it is OK. You will be fine, that's the most important idea to remember.


----------



## EricEricEric

The risk of myocarditis after mRNA vaccination was 8 times and 30 times greater than unvaccinated control groups for BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and mRNA-1273 (Moderna), respectively.

The largest association for myocarditis following the Moderna jab was 44 times higher risk for persons aged 18 to 24 years.

As for the Pfizer shot, in relation to the same age group, the risk was 13 times higher.

These are the age groups with a 99%+ likelihood of recover with zero vaccinations.

However, it could be advantageous to use an antiviral immediately upon suspicion of infection in order to limit any possible symptoms and negative effects from the virus and of course to expedite recover and lesson duration.

However, for these younger people simply using zinc, vit D, and vit C maybe be more than sufficient except for in rare cases.

Also, keep in mind that J&J was linked to blood clots along with AstraZeneca and were removed from the general market as they are not safe and carry a great risk with their use.

Age and sex-specific risks of myocarditis and pericarditis following Covid-19 messenger RNA vaccines.









Age and sex-specific risks of myocarditis and pericarditis following Covid-19 messenger RNA vaccines - Nature Communications


There have been reports of myocarditis and pericarditis following mRNA COVID-9 vaccination. Here, the authors use nationwide data from France and find increased risks of these outcomes in the first week following vaccination, for both the first and second dose, and present age- and sex-specific...




www.nature.com





This is the peer reviewed study in full


----------



## sansho

@inferno here's one take on it









Losing the Sense of Smell: How Covid-19 Infection Induces Long-Lasting Symptoms


Although olfactory neurons are not directly infected by SARS-CoV-2, they do sustain significant damage from the infection of neighboring cells.




www.forbes.com







> If the virus does not directly infect these neurons, why does the loss of smell or disordered smell last for so long? Another finding suggests that the key signals that regulate gene expression in the olfactory nerve cell associated with the ability of the neuron to respond to odorants are altered. The process of signal transduction involves several genes important for detecting smells. RNA-sequencing of hamster nasal tissues revealed that Covid-19 infection downregulates, or reduces the activity, of several genes involved in perceiving different odors. Researchers hypothesized that reorganization of the olfactosome disrupts key transcription factors that determine what genes are expressed and when. These changes then alter the orientation and subsequent expression of olfactory genes, which persist even after elimination of the virus forming a sense of “nuclear memory” that delays sensory restoration.


----------



## sansho

EricEricEric said:


> The risk of myocarditis after mRNA vaccination was 8 times and 30 times greater than unvaccinated control groups for BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and mRNA-1273 (Moderna), respectively.



eric, i do think myocarditis risk is somewhat concerning. but for me personally, long covid (chiefly olfactory and cognitive issues) is of _much_ greater concern.

that's why my personal strategy is:

do what i can to avoid getting it in the first place!
continue getting updated mRNA vaccines if...
they're updated and shown to help with current variants (transmission and/or symptom severity)
AND evidence of the risk of side effects doesn't become overly concerning

take antivirals or whatever's available at first sign of infection if i do get it again
so far, i'm comfortable with risks of side effects from mRNA vaccines. just waiting on an updated release before i bother boosting.


----------



## chefwp

Vladimir Zelenko, 48, Dies; Promoted an Unfounded Covid Treatment


A self-described “simple country doctor,” he won national attention in 2020 when the White House embraced his hydroxychloroquine regimen.




www.nytimes.com


----------



## MarcelNL

EricEricEric said:


> The risk of myocarditis after mRNA vaccination was 8 times and 30 times greater than unvaccinated control groups for BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and mRNA-1273 (Moderna), respectively.
> 
> The largest association for myocarditis following the Moderna jab was 44 times higher risk for persons aged 18 to 24 years.
> 
> As for the Pfizer shot, in relation to the same age group, the risk was 13 times higher.
> 
> These are the age groups with a 99%+ likelihood of recover with zero vaccinations.
> 
> However, it could be advantageous to use an antiviral immediately upon suspicion of infection in order to limit any possible symptoms and negative effects from the virus and of course to expedite recover and lesson duration.
> 
> However, for these younger people simply using zinc, vit D, and vit C maybe be more than sufficient except for in rare cases.
> 
> Also, keep in mind that J&J was linked to blood clots along with AstraZeneca and were removed from the general market as they are not safe and carry a great risk with their use.
> 
> Age and sex-specific risks of myocarditis and pericarditis following Covid-19 messenger RNA vaccines.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Age and sex-specific risks of myocarditis and pericarditis following Covid-19 messenger RNA vaccines - Nature Communications
> 
> 
> There have been reports of myocarditis and pericarditis following mRNA COVID-9 vaccination. Here, the authors use nationwide data from France and find increased risks of these outcomes in the first week following vaccination, for both the first and second dose, and present age- and sex-specific...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nature.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This is the peer reviewed study in full


You seem to still think that single cases can be extrapolated to a conclusion for the masses...even when the study linked to is a real one (which is nice to see) you should not interpret the data 'as you please'

Do you understand what the risk mentioned in the study actually means?

Where did you read that the J&J vaccine or AstraZeneca were withdrawn, or taken off the 'general market'?









The Janssen Ad26.COV2.S COVID-19 vaccine: What you need to know


The WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts (SAGE) on Immunisation has issued Interim recommendations for the use of the Janssen Ad26.CoV2.S vaccine against COVID-19.




www.who.int













The Oxford/AstraZeneca (ChAdOx1-S [recombinant] vaccine) COVID-19 vaccine: what you need to know







www.who.int





Not to brush any side effects away, but you do need to view them in relation to the risk of contracting Covid (risk safety benefit) and on an absolute scale. A hundred times higher risk of having an arm fall off after taking a tablet of Aspirin sounds scary as heck, unless you report the absolute incidence...if that is 1 in a gazillion doses a hundred times more is almost meaningless.

You combine pieces of information that have no relation and jump to a conclusion that is not supported by the information you relate to...pulling things out of context to create a new 'truth' that sounds plausible to the gullible is what propaganda does.

You can watch and or read the FDA Covid advisory panel meetings in full, go ahead have alook, you'll see all the above and more discussed openly...no conspiracies, no hidden agendas, pure science at work with progressing insight.


----------



## sansho

my sense of smell is almost back to normal. i think i was just flipping out before because of my last experience with anosmia (from a different virus) which was much worse.


----------



## inferno

sansho said:


> eric, i do think myocarditis risk is somewhat concerning. but for me personally, long covid (chiefly olfactory and cognitive issues) is of _much_ greater concern.
> 
> that's why my personal strategy is:
> 
> do what i can to avoid getting it in the first place!
> continue getting updated mRNA vaccines if...
> they're updated and shown to help with current variants (transmission and/or symptom severity)
> AND evidence of the risk of side effects doesn't become overly concerning
> 
> take antivirals or whatever's available at first sign of infection if i do get it again
> so far, i'm comfortable with risks of side effects from mRNA vaccines. just waiting on an updated release before i bother boosting.



i think you should also be aware of these "symptoms" of long covid.

hightened pulse. up to maybe 150 at resting. its not gonna kill you. but its not nice.
extremely hightened stress hormones i guess. like noradrenaline. you dont want that. i can assure you that.
this is very bad. you can never relax. and its on a molecular level. you are always on 110%. cool if you're doing speed but otherwise no.

also you feel that you are gonna die ALL THE TIME. all the time. like drowning from inside. but you never do. ask me how i know.

ive had some serious lung and hearth disease for over 1,5 years. very very serious. it feels like i'm gonna die. but i never did. so thats positive i guess.
but to be honest for about 70% of the time i wish i just was dead. it would have been preferable. but i struggle. and i win. out riding my bike every day. deep breaths. ultra deep breaths. jungle meds (aya). and then now i feel like i'm almost restored. dont know if it was the aya, the bike, or the vitamins/supplements.

then again according to the medical people i have never had covid at all. so yeah i guess it is what it is.

and now recently, maybe the last month, i have develóped a cough. and so does everyone else at work have done too.

i'm just gonna drench myself in aya, seemed to work out well the last time i didnt have covid


----------



## inferno

its all just a ****ing simulation. didn't you know.


----------



## MarcelNL

you can try microdosing aya...


----------



## inferno

edit: maybe i shouldn't recommend stuff like this.


----------



## gregfisk

inferno said:


> not gonna work marcel. it needs a certain baseline dose to work at all. its a psychological medicine. you need to interact with it/direct it to make it heal anything at all. no ****.
> 
> for me, for this **** to work at all. 25g vine. 2,5 strong leaf. and that is the first dose. it ramps up in effect. you need 3 doses.
> 
> but usually i boil up 50g vine and 10-12g leaf (strong leaf, cabrerana), for a whole night. 3 doses. divide by 3.
> 
> this **** really heals you. dont know what to say really. but its like you were born again sometimes. but its much "worse" than that. you would not belive. usually much much worse  i'm not saying its bad. but it could get a bit intense. a bit.
> 
> but in the end it very rewarding. 100% free from disease. and a lot more than that. i'd say its worth it. buuuut you might die. other than that its completely safe.


Whenever you explain this drug you say so many contradictory things that I have no idea what it really does to you. It’s really really good but it’s also really really bad. I just don’t know what to think about it. And since you’re the person telling us this and I’m not sure where you’re coming from more often than not, it’s even harder to figure it out. I say this not as an insult and the truth is I find your thoughts very interesting. It’s just hard for me to get my mind around what you’re trying to say.


----------



## Luftmensch

gregfisk said:


> Whenever you explain this drug you say so many contradictory things that I have no idea what it really does to you



We are primitive thuggish animals. Seems to me there was moral panic over hallucinogens.... from when... the late 1960's??

To be sure, they are powerful drugs and I am _not_ advocating for unfettered access. However, i find it sad that we were so puritanical, we decided it was too taboo to run clinical trials. We have lost half a century of medical potential. I watch with some interest as global trials into these substances are recommencing. For example, this one, which is using psilocybin (not DMT... which I believe is the main active compound in Ayahuasca). Proper science on these drugs is long overdue and could help people with difficult mental disorders...

Outside of the medical potential... their effects are fascinating to me... but my goodie-two-shoes are too tightly laced up!


... all this said... hallucinogens/psychedelics have absolutely nothing to do with Covid... @MarcelNL was being cheeky!!!  And I sort of view @inferno's experience through the lens of mental health...


----------



## inferno

greg.
it is very good and healing in the end, when its finished, but it could be very difficult and challenging to get there. ymmv.

luftmensch.
i'd say the science is already out there. but considering _how_ these things work its a bit hard to say for certain that patients get result x or y. i mean how would anyone measure this. also the experienced effects would probably be very different for different patients too.

considering how these things work i don't recommend them either, its something people need to decide for themselves after long research. there is a lot to read though for those that are interested.


----------



## MarcelNL

I was not being cheeky, microdosing works for certain indications.

These days even pharma has regained their interest in Aya and other psychoactives such as Psilo etc.


----------



## Luftmensch

MarcelNL said:


> I was not being cheeky, microdosing works for certain indications.
> 
> These days even pharma has regained their interest in Aya and other psychoactives such as Psilo etc.



Mia culpa. Apologies for a misrepresentation of your remark!

No... indeed. Like I said... these new trials interest me.



inferno said:


> i'd say the science is already out there. but considering _how_ these things work its a bit hard to say for certain that patients get result x or y. i mean how would anyone measure this. also the experienced effects would probably be very different for different patients too.



There is certainly a lot of cultural knowledge. Whilst I respect this... the field still needs proper studies. How can these drugs be used to treat specific ailments. What are the benefits? What are the limitations? What are the risks? What is the treatment regimen? Are the effects enduring or is it temporary?

Even then... it is not clear whether therapeutic benefit will come from the drugs _alone_. Circling back to cultural knowledge and modern practice (e.g. the study I linked to)... you could replace 'shaman' with 'therapist'. It is possible that these drugs only have a lasting effect when patients are supervised by somebody who understands how to productively guide people through their experience...


----------



## LostHighway

If we're coming down from the psychedelics I'd like to turn back to the matter of covid. It appears to me that the US is sleepwalking toward yet another covid peak. Our finely tuned medical system* has completely lost track of the actual case count (estimated to currently catch as few as one in seven cases) due, at least in part, to the wider availability of at home tests. Once again the US is placing all its bets on vaccinations as supposedly new Omicron effective vaccines will be available in October or November. Whether the vaccine industry can actually get ahead of the impressive mutation rate of SARS-coV-2 variants remains to be seen. Omicron BA.5 variants are well on their way to becoming the dominant strain the US but BA.2.75 "Centaurus" might (it has a large number of mutations) might be a further concern. It is showing a rapid increase in India, where it was discovered, and it has been already detected in the US. There is also BA.5.3.1 "Bad Ned" which is rapidly becoming the dominant strain in Germany and has also been detected in the US
Ground Truths

*One of my physicians quipped that the US "...doesn't have a medical system, it has a medical industry."


----------



## MarcelNL

it's no different anywhere else, sewage monitoring seems the most reliable method. BTW a few weeks ago the lab of the Belgian virologost Dr v Ranst came up with a way to identify virus strains from used self tests so we may be able to do without the much more costly PCR alltogether.


----------



## sansho

LostHighway said:


> Our finely tuned medical system* has completely lost track of the actual case count (estimated to currently catch as few as one in seven cases) due, at least in part, to the wider availability of at home tests.



i actually tried to find a way to report that i had covid, and i couldn't find one after like 5 minutes of online searching (after which i lost interest and gave up). i'm sort of surprised my local gov't doesn't seem interested in collecting that info.


----------



## MarcelNL

self reported patient outcome data is shaky at best, if infected people would take their responsability and quarantine the added benefit of knowing how many test positive is low. Guess sewage water is informative enough about viral load/population even when it likely shows a little later in time, oh and of course the nr of admissions to ICU!


----------



## sansho

no one's testing my septic system 

i think self-reported could be useful if people assert that they actually tested positive


----------



## MarcelNL

problem with all self reporting is compliance/motivation, it's usually abysmal unless you have an easy to use device with built in reminders and scripts etc....which is impossible. Hey you could send in a sample of your septic tank every week


----------



## MarcelNL

first read the full article, the title is a bit alarmist;









The 'worst variant' is here | CNN


Omicron offshoot BA.5 is now dominating US infections, proving the pandemic is far from over.




edition.cnn.com





*What makes BA.5 different? *Eric Topol, a cardiologist and professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research, has called BA.5 "the worst version of the virus we've seen." He explained in a recent newsletter: "It takes immune escape, already extensive, to the next level, and, as a function of that, enhanced transmissibility," well beyond earlier versions of Omicron.
In other words, BA.5 can easily evade immunity from previous infections and vaccines, increasing the risk of reinfection. Though the variant does not appear to lead to more severe illness, in an interview with CNN on Monday, Topol said that given the extent of BA.5's immune evasion, he expects to see an escalation in hospitalizations, as we've seen in Europe and elsewhere that the variant has taken root. "One good thing is it doesn't appear to be accompanied by the ICU admissions and the deaths as previous variants, but this is definitely concerning," he added.

I guess Dr Topol had a bunch of unused comma's ;-)


----------



## inferno

-snip-


----------



## MarcelNL

nice write up about aya! I have my doubts about the ''whatever disease' as IME it mainly affects the head
Also, from what I know, some specific combinations (the leafs in the combo are causing the hallucinogenic effect, the vines make it possible) are better suited for specific issues/targets, it takes some expertise to pick the best combo but there is a 'standard recipe'.


death appears to be pretty permanent ;-)


----------



## inferno

-snip-


----------



## MarcelNL

inferno said:


> also most people thinks that your mind/psyche/brain/personality/etc is the same thing. i can inform you that its not. this is the first thing that separates out. you will learn this very quickly. there are many different levels and depths here. and differences as to what they actually do. and this is why this thing works at all imo. that you get this separation.


I know, been there done that. Sri Ramana has a very nice schematic in one of his works. I've 'seen' my innermost inside.


----------



## inferno

-snip-


----------



## Keith Sinclair

MarcelNL said:


> I know, been there done that. Sri Ramana has a very nice schematic in one of his works. I've 'seen' my innermost inside.


Ramana Maharshi Sage of Arunachala.


----------



## MarcelNL

@inferno I can send you the papers by Sri Ramana, so you can have a see if it ties in with your intuition...I think it does as what Aya IME does is that it allows you to connect area's /aspects of the brain/self. Just send me your email via PM.


----------



## LostHighway

As far as I can tell Inferno is positing a purely materialist view.
I'd be interested in either a thread on psychedelics or a thread on the nature of mind/nature of reality but neither of these seem particularly germane to covid. I'll happily stipulate that there is a mind/body or brain/body relationship but we're deep into the weeds if that becomes the core conversation with regard to viral diseases.
Perhaps monkey pox may end up requiring its own thread as well..


----------



## tcmx3

So, "the shape of things" to come is starting to mean something different in 2022 than it did in 2020.

The US is still at 60k new cases per day and several hundred deaths. Which you know, people seem to want to pretend isn't happening. But, with just over 95 million total cases over two years, we now have to start dealing with the consequences of long covid cases. Perhaps more than anything else, we need to begin discussing what we're going to do about the cognitive impairment that this disease can cause even for those folks who did not ultimately go on ventilators. The big topic this week is a recent Atlantic article summarizing some of what is being seen in folks: One of Long COVID’s Worst Symptoms Is Also Its Most Misunderstood

I have not heard a lot of people talking about the additional strain this is going to cause a workforce already diminished from over a million covid deaths and facing the retirement of its largest working age cohort. Executive function impairment is a big deal and makes it so folks are going to have a hard time working. It is likely that any real solution to this will involve dumping billions of dollars into researching methods and drugs to try and address this. If anyone's tried to hire recently, you know that you can put huge salary numbers up and you just can't find people.

Something like 1 in 13 people have some long covid symptoms: Nearly One in Five American Adults Who Have Had COVID-19 Still Have "Long COVID"

We will be paying the price for our collective decisions for decades.

BTW these effects show up on MRI scans, so let's just skip the part where people suggest it's imaginary. Oh and special thanks to all of the "it only kills 1 percent of people so it's not that serious" crowd.


----------



## Hockey3081

Interesting timing of this thread’s resurrection as I thought about it earlier. I work for a fairly large company that sent an announcement dropping its vaccine mandate and also allowing those who left because of it to rejoin the company. Cited the CDC’s change in views between vaccinated and unvaccinated and a few other things. Not really sure how I feel about it yet as I was happy we had the mandate even when the Supreme Court castrated OSHA earlier this year.


----------



## captaincaed

Remember. Cases are only what gets measured and reported. Cases =\= infections. Cases <<< infections. 

Long term burden of disease for this one is going to,be costly. What a ***** of a disease.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

We had brain fog before had mild COVID. Tired about her complaining about what she forgot. So we make a list add to it as we both think of stuff. Works much better. 

Hiking & riding bike not laying on couch all day in front of TV helps. Exercise pumps oxygen to the brain.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

We still wear mask indoors crowded places. 
As do many other seniors. Since mandate dropped more people not wearing mask. 

Out in nature with hiking & cycling groups don't wear a mask. Got our flu shots this week. 
.


----------



## Luftmensch

Has anyone been a close contact, tested negative and had brain fog??

Several months ago, we had a friend stay with us for a weekend. After she left, a day later she tested positive. Me and my partner went into quarantine. We tested negative multiple times on RATs and once on PCR. Given that evidence... it would be unreasonable for me to assume either of us had Covid... yet I swear i had excessive fatigue and lack of focus that week. I guess it was either due to something else or in my case, possibly psychosomatic**.... but I can't help shake the idea it was my body responding to a low-dose exposure. Has anybody had something similar??



Based on nothing but intuition... I would say Covid is not unique in its ability to have lingering long-term effects. The disease is just so topical it is getting a lot of attention. Perhaps the silver lining in this is that people who have things like chronic fatigue or lyme-like diseases will benefit from insights into long Covid. I think I said this earlier in the thread? Either way... Long-Covid symptoms sound awful.


** I am in no way insinuating Long-Covid and brain fog are imaginary!!


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Jeez she went to yoga 3 days ago. Wasn't feeling to good so didn't go on today's hike when I got back she had taken self test & positive for COVID. This strain is very contagious trying to be careful but last time I gave it to her.


----------



## Barmoley

Keith Sinclair said:


> Jeez she went to yoga 3 days ago. Wasn't feeling to good so didn't go on today's hike when I got back she had taken self test & positive for COVID. This strain is very contagious trying to be careful but last time I gave it to her.


Hang in there. Cases are on the rise again around here too, many people have it again, fortunately severity seems relatively low so far.


----------



## Todd762

we aren’t doing the amount of testing we used to. I think if we were, people would be shocked by the numbers.


----------



## MarcelNL

Todd762 said:


> we aren’t doing the amount of testing we used to. I think if we were, people would be shocked by the numbers.


I'm not sure if all of the US states are monitoring Covid in sewage water, but that is a pretty good proxy for testing.
If those numbers are rising steep or high already you may be right.









COVID Data Tracker


CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.



covid.cdc.gov


----------



## gregfisk

Here’s an interesting article that I just read. It appears that the new boosters are working well and even help you not get infected in the first place.









The good, bad, and good news on COVID-19 and long COVID


Two and a half years into the COVID-19 pandemic, we now have a very good idea of where the disease first made the jump to humans. Three separate studies, summarized in Nature, indicate that the so-called “wet market” in Wuhan, China was in fact the...




www.dailykos.com


----------



## tcmx3

Hey guys don't know if you heard but the pandemic is "over"















COVID-19 Data Explorer


Research and data to make progress against the world’s largest problems




ourworldindata.org


----------



## ian

I feel like that graph is ripe for misinterpretation by people who kind of glance at it on the internet. It does indeed show that the pandemic's not over, but I had to spend a couple minutes unpacking it to really understand that.

Namely, people are going to look at the graph and immediately think "omg, it's getting worse", which isn't the case. So let's just note that the graph is of _cumulative_ deaths, and shows maybe 200 deaths / million * 330 million = 66,000 deaths in the US in the past 6 months. Deaths from flu in the US seem to be between 20,000 to 50,000 per year, for context. So, yea, the pandemic's definitely not over, but it makes sense that people are relaxing a bit from the complete panic of the past couple years. I mean, there were 350,831 covid deaths in 2020 in the US, apparently, and 460,000 in 2021.


----------



## sansho

it's kind of over to me personally as long as i have access to effective antivirals


----------



## tcmx3

ian said:


> I feel like that graph is ripe for misinterpretation by people who kind of glance at it on the internet. It does indeed show that the pandemic's not over, but I had to spend a couple minutes unpacking it to really understand that.
> 
> Namely, people are going to look at the graph and immediately think "omg, it's getting worse", which isn't the case. So let's just note that the graph is of _cumulative_ deaths, and shows maybe 200 deaths / million * 330 million = 66,000 deaths in the US in the past 6 months. Deaths from flu in the US seem to be between 20,000 to 50,000 per year, for context. So, yea, the pandemic's definitely not over, but it makes sense that people are relaxing a bit from the complete panic of the past couple years. I mean, there were 350,831 covid deaths in 2020 in the US, apparently, and 460,000 in 2021.



the people in this thread most likely to misinterpret already believe a fantasy version of the last two years anyway so not too worried. the people who actually get stats have tried explaining it to them nicely and mostly gotten insulted as thanks.

we're still on pace for near 100K deaths (so twice as bad as a really bad flu year and five times as bad as a milder one) and that's after:

the first million people, presumably those most at risk, already died
widespread vaccination that reduces the likelihood of death quite significantly
we went through less lethal but more contagious variants
I don't agree with the assertion there is much sensible about relaxing itself, though I cannot argue, based on how bad it turns out the average American adult's risk evaluation is, that it doesn't make sense to me that people are relaxing. We still take our shoes off at the airport despite them catching the guy who tried that with his shoes still on.

At any rate it's also important for me to note how closely tied to a certain "Mission Accomplished" event that happened yesterday it is.


----------



## EricEricEric

I thought the original Covid “vaccinations”were supposed to do that, but they’re telling us the same thing with the “new and improved” Covid “vaccination”?





gregfisk said:


> Here’s an interesting article that I just read. It appears that the new boosters are working well and even help you not get infected in the first place.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The good, bad, and good news on COVID-19 and long COVID
> 
> 
> Two and a half years into the COVID-19 pandemic, we now have a very good idea of where the disease first made the jump to humans. Three separate studies, summarized in Nature, indicate that the so-called “wet market” in Wuhan, China was in fact the...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailykos.com


----------



## EricEricEric

Bingo! 



sansho said:


> it's kind of over to me personally as long as i have access to effective antivirals


----------



## EricEricEric

We will see a reevaluation of that number in the future. 



ian said:


> I feel like that graph is ripe for misinterpretation by people who kind of glance at it on the internet. It does indeed show that the pandemic's not over, but I had to spend a couple minutes unpacking it to really understand that.
> 
> Namely, people are going to look at the graph and immediately think "omg, it's getting worse", which isn't the case. So let's just note that the graph is of _cumulative_ deaths, and shows maybe 200 deaths / million * 330 million = 66,000 deaths in the US in the past 6 months. Deaths from flu in the US seem to be between 20,000 to 50,000 per year, for context. So, yea, the pandemic's definitely not over, but it makes sense that people are relaxing a bit from the complete panic of the past couple years. I mean, there were 350,831 covid deaths in 2020 in the US, apparently, and 460,000 in 2021.


----------



## MarcelNL

EricEricEric said:


> I thought the original Covid “vaccinations”were supposed to do that, but they’re telling us the same thing with the “new and improved” Covid “vaccination”?


Go read up on Covid, viruses, and vaccines and vaccination... don't skip Polio, o wait, the permanent paralysis only affects 1 in about every 200 so it cannot be that bad.


----------



## gregfisk

I’ll never understand people who live in an alternate universe. How can you be so hopelessly ignorant to the reality that we’ve all been living in. Just the statistics alone tell you all that you need to know, thank you to the people who have posted them and tried to explain. And then there are the undeniable first hand experiences that have happened all around us. It’s kind of like some people just don’t want to know what’s really going on in the world so they live in a fantasy world and try and get the rest of us to join them. I have two cousins , both religious. One lives in Spokane Washington and the other in Florida. Both were non believers in the beginning and thought the virus was not a big deal. Then they both ended up in the hospital for over a week each and both almost died. My cousin from Spokane is still really messed up living with long Covid. He can no longer remember peoples names that he meets for the first time and his memory is half what it used to be. And he just doesn’t seem right socially anymore. It’s like he’s not really there in the present and is sort of tuned out half the time. Now that the virus has mutated to a lesser evil I understand how we all just want to move on. I’ve done it myself self since my chances of dying are much less. All I can say is the people living with their head in the sand and who have survived are damn lucky for sure.


----------



## sansho

note that it's certainly not guaranteed that approved antivirals will stay effective!

i'm also glad that we once again have (probably) effective vaccines. at least for now.


----------



## EricEricEric

The “vaccine” doesn’t prevent infection and it doesn’t prevent transmission either.

On top of all of that if you don’t suffer multiple severe comorbidities and if you’re not 65+ the vaccine posses a greater risk to your health than the virus does

Why were people forced to take this “vaccine”? 

Also, why hasn’t the FDA recommended this “vaccine” continue safety and effectiveness testing over the last two years????




https://t.co/FvTn01zv3J">pic.twitter.com/FvTn01zv3J</a></p>&mdash; True North (@TrueNorthCentre) <a href="


----------



## gregfisk

I have no problem with her comments and no one ever said that the vaccines would prevent transmission. What the vaccines did do and are still doing is preventing people from dying. Why is that so hard for some people to understand? The amount of people that would have died without the vaccines would have been astronomical compared to the reality we’re in today. I just don’t get the pushback and the constant belittling of what was accomplished in such a short amount of time. Oh, and we all didn’t die today from the vaccine poisoning that was supposed to happen according to the Q-nuts that are pushing all this nonsense.


----------



## MarcelNL

OMG, pleaase DO read up on vaccines and perhaps when you have some more processor time left read up on drug development...please, questioning things is OK, trying to pass on blame because layman expectations are way beyond reality is lame.
While you are at it, look at the risk of contracting Covid in all age groups, versus the risk the vaccination carries and report back, you are once more regurgitating propaganda rather than supporting your claims with data!


----------



## MarcelNL

BTW; what a nonsense question, the studies they did are PUBLIC and the results were submitted to EMA and can be found within seconds, so a question from an ignoramous is suddenly carrying any weight?

"I want to know if you tested the vaccine for the prevention of contracting green hair, and I want a clear yes or no, as I'm sure the public wants to know'

Read the Summary of product characteristics or SmPC and you know what was tested, that applies to the guy asking the question and anyone believing he had a point.




__





Loading…






www.pfizermedicalinformation.fr





You can also find all the studies they did at Clinicaltrials.gov it takes some reading though.


----------



## gregfisk

MarcelNL said:


> BTW; what a nonsense question, the studies they did are PUBLIC and the results were submitted to EMA and can be found within seconds, so a question from an ignoramous is suddenly carrying any weight?
> 
> "I want to know if you tested the vaccine for the prevention of contracting green hair, and I want a clear yes or no, as I'm sure the public wants to know'
> 
> Read the Summary of product characteristics or SmPC and you know what was tested, that applies to the guy asking the question and anyone believing he had a point.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Loading…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.pfizermedicalinformation.fr
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You can also find all the studies they did at Clinicaltrials.gov it takes some reading though.


Hahahaha.... exactly!


----------



## Greenbriel

EricEricEric said:


> Also, why hasn’t the FDA recommended this “vaccine” continue safety and effectiveness testing over the last two years????


Dear God I come here to get away from this nonsense but I can't let this go (it popped up in my daily roundup). I've professionally written and researched A LOT on this topic. Here's something from a recent story I wrote:



> All medicines carry some risk, but with vaccines, the benefits far, far outweigh the risk to individuals, and to public health. All vaccines are continually monitored for safety by scientists, federal, state, and local health agencies, healthcare providers and the public. Systems are in place to coordinate this monitoring — the Vaccine Safety Datalink Project and the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) are used in tandem to allow scientists to monitor vaccine safety. COVID-19 vaccines use these systems in addition to a program called V-Safe, which uses smartphones to add an additional layer of reporting.



@gregfisk did a good job of explaining (or trying, good luck with that bud ) that vaccines prevent death and hospitalization, not transmission and infection.

Over and out.


----------



## sansho

honest question... did any sarscov2 vaccine prevent infection or transmission *of the original variant(s)* (i.e. of the viral samples available at design time)?


----------



## gregfisk

Greenbriel said:


> Dear God I come here to get away from this nonsense but I can't let this go. I've professionally written and researched A LOT on this topic. Here's something from a recent story:
> 
> 
> 
> @gregfisk did a good job of explaining (or trying, good luck with that bud ) that vaccines prevent death and hospitalization, not transmission and infection.
> 
> Over and out.


Thanks for this. I’m certainly not a scientist, and I certainly don’t have the in depth knowledge that you do. I just try and use common sense along with the information that’s out there. Unfortunately, it feels like talking to some of these people is like talking into a black hole. Everything goes in and nothing ever comes out.


----------



## Greenbriel

gregfisk said:


> Thanks for this. I’m certainly not a scientist, and I certainly don’t have the in depth knowledge that you do. I just try and use common sense along with the information that’s out there. Unfortunately, it feels like talking to some of these people is like talking into a black hole. Everything goes in and nothing ever comes out.


I'm no scientist either, I didn't mean to give that impression! I write for a couple of healthcare companies. If you like I can DM you some links to a couple of things I wrote that talk (respectfully) about vaccine hesitancy and reasons for it (it's not all Q-Anon craziness, there are some more legit reasons people worry), and ideas for how to bring people around (not at all easy once the notion has cemented itself in the brain).


----------



## Greenbriel

sansho said:


> honest question... did any sarscov2 vaccine prevent infection or transmission *of the original variant(s)* (i.e. of the viral samples available at design time)?


Hey bud!

Short answer: yes.

Here's a snippet from Yale Medicine (totally untrustworthy source, what do they know? ).



> For example, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine had 95% *efficacy* in the clinical trials that led to it becoming the first vaccine to get an emergency use authorization (EUA) from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in December 2020.



Full story here: What’s the Difference Between COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy and Effectiveness?


----------



## Greenbriel

EricEricEric said:


> https://t.co/FvTn01zv3J">pic.twitter.com/FvTn01zv3J</a></p>&mdash; True North (@TrueNorthCentre) <a href="




At the risk of sounding like an anti-vaxxer, HOAX!  That's not how clinical trials work. 









Fact Check: Pfizer Vaccine Clinical Trial NOT Intended To Test Transmission Prevention -- That's Not How Clinical Trials Work | Lead Stories


Did a Pfizer representative "admit" the company erred when its COVID-19 vaccine was "never tested on preventing transmission" of the...




leadstories.com


----------



## Michi

Since Omicron, vaccines have not been terribly effective against infection. They do help some, but not a lot.

But they are still very effective at preventing severe disease and death.

If you are vaccinated and get Covid, your chances of coming out the other end much quicker, with less severe symptoms (and alive), are around twenty times better than of a person who is not vaccinated.

That's why our hospitals still have a massively disproportionate number of unvaccinated patients in them. In absolute numbers, there are fewer unvaccinated patients than vaccinated ones. But when you work out what the proportional share of unvaccinated vs vaccinated patients should be, you find that, for every vaccinated person in hospital, there are around 15 unvaccinated ones.


----------



## MarcelNL

There is some evidence that the current Omikron Ready (TM) vaccines DO offer some protetction against transmission;
Note; keep in mind that other household members can be infected by a multitude of people other than those in their household.

from the RIVM website, (basically the equivalent of CDC):
Contagiousness after vaccination​You can still become infected with the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 after you have been vaccinated. Vaccination protects against illness caused by the coronavirus. Various studies have been published showing that vaccination also reduces transmission of the virus from one person to another. RIVM research (such as VASCO) shows that vaccination significantly reduces transmission of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2. A booster jab offers 63% protection against transmission of the virus to other household members. A person who has a booster jab and later gets a SARS-CoV-2 infection has reduced their risk of passing the virus on to their household members by more than half, compared to someone who is unvaccinated and gets COVID-19. International research on transmission of the virus has had more mixed results.


----------



## Greenbriel

Michi said:


> But they are still very effective at preventing severe disease and death.
> 
> If you are vaccinated and get Covid, your chances of coming out the other end much quicker, with less severe symptoms (and alive), are around twenty times better than of a person who is not vaccinated.


Absolutely @Michi. I am immunocompromised and as a result was extremely careful throughout the pandemic. Unfortunately I contracted Omicron a few months ago (with four shots in me at the time, I’ve since had the bivalent booster). I was absolutely terrified - I have had a cold caught from my nephew turn into near-pneumonic acute bronchitis). My wife and I both had very mild symptoms, basically a cough (no throat pain) and lethargy. We tested negative 5-6 days later and merrily went about our lives. I know that this wouldn’t have been the case were I not vaccinated.

Vaccines are a medical marvel that, like antibiotics, are being squandered by those without the knowledge or desire to protect them.


----------



## Luftmensch

So... I am adding (semi) needless activity here...

Maybe somebody will appreciate this anecdote... I am having a holiday in rural New Zealand. In some of the slow mornings I read the news while enjoying a coffee. For entertainment I have checked-in with KKF every few days. I read the Eric^3 post on Thursday morning. Later that day I went into a countryside knick-knack shop and engaged in small talk with the shopkeep. In particular, I said how nice it was to catch some sunshine (large parts of Oz have had seemingly endless rain and floods). Apparently that was enough consent for her to talk about how the "leftist global elite" were _controlling_ the weather .... from there she proceeded to talk about Pfizer's shocking admissions to the EU.

Fun experience. I it interesting how conspiracy theories can clump... and how quickly this 'news' had spread to the middle of nowhere (we're talking rural NZ here). Mind you... we're also talking about 'news' that hasn't even made the third page of the two newspapers I frequently read.

Love ya NZ. We all have people with mixed opinions - Australia certainly has plenty of them!

Not much to add but I thought it was a fun sequence of coincidences.


----------



## Jovidah

That's not a coincidence at all; a lot of the 'conspiracies' are just desinformation / destabilization campaigns run by other nationstates (Russia is probably the biggest one but certainly not the only one; for example China also has significant troll armies). They just throw everything at the wall and hope something sticks.
Why do you think half the anti-vax spouting channels also suddenly became very opinionated on the Russian invasion of Ukraine in an anti-Ukrainian fashion after the invasion stalled in march?


----------



## Michi

Jovidah said:


> Why do you think half the anti-vax spouting channels also suddenly became very opinionated on the Russian invasion of Ukraine in an anti-Ukrainian fashion after the invasion stalled in march?


Because Covid is kind of getting boring these days and it's more fun to rally behind a different conspiracy theory? Especially when it turns out that all the previous conspiracies regarding Covid didn't happen?


----------



## MarcelNL

Jovidah said:


> That's not a coincidence at all; a lot of the 'conspiracies' are just desinformation / destabilization campaigns run by other nationstates (Russia is probably the biggest one but certainly not the only one; for example China also has significant troll armies). They just throw everything at the wall and hope something sticks.
> Why do you think half the anti-vax spouting channels also suddenly became very opinionated on the Russian invasion of Ukraine in an anti-Ukrainian fashion after the invasion stalled in march?


that something I also noticed, and pretty much the same crowd has suddenly become activist pro-farmers around here...(our farmers will need to scale down due to environmental issues of large scale bio industry, they produce like 10 times more dairy and meat than ever needed in our country)

A collegue of me, used to be ICU nurse, was vaccine sceptic but has no gone off the chart anti vaxx and also thinks 'they' control the weather... I never heard anything further about mind control through the graphene and chips in the vaccines, they either prevented that scheme from happening or it was not true after all?


----------



## Michi

"They", if the control the weather, are just like God then. Time to give in and admit defeat. "They" are just insurmountably powerful…


----------



## Jovidah

Michi said:


> Because Covid is kind of getting boring these days and it's more fun to rally behind a different conspiracy theory? Especially when it turns out that all the previous conspiracies regarding Covid didn't happen?





MarcelNL said:


> that something I also noticed, and pretty much the same crowd has suddenly become activist pro-farmers around here...(our farmers will need to scale down due to environmental issues of large scale bio industry, they produce like 10 times more dairy and meat than ever needed in our country)
> 
> A collegue of me, used to be ICU nurse, was vaccine sceptic but has no gone off the chart anti vaxx and also thinks 'they' control the weather... I never heard anything further about mind control through the graphene and chips in the vaccines, they either prevented that scheme from happening or it was not true after all?


I can't speak for the people buying into this crap, but if you look where it originates from it's very often tied to people, organizations or states that simply want to destabilize the countries and populations it's aimed at. Hence the 'throw everthing and see what sticks'. There's no real need for any of it to come true in the long run, and often no real interest in the actual content of the issue; it's all about destabilizing, undermining unity, etc.
In Russian eyes, long term stategic health problems and societal divide as a result of all this antivaxbullshit is a complete win simply because it weakens western societies by destabilizing them. Similarly they'll latch on to anything else that can create or amplify fissures, be it a farmers protest, racial issues, focus on ethnonationalism, leaving the EU (Brexit was arguably the biggest succes Russian secret services had within Europe), etc. Similarly, in the past Russia has also been tied to amplifying and/or supporting certain green movements because their interests alligned. So for example they were pretty big on supporting anti-shale movements in Eastern Europe because it would have led to energy independence from Russia if they went down this path, taking away their main source of leverage. 
Once you know what to look for it becomes pretty straightforward to recognize the Russian trolls, Russian bought-and-paid-for 'politicians', or people who bought into or read their message. There's a lot of common strands.


----------



## MarcelNL

Jovidah said:


> I can't speak for the people buying into this crap, but if you look where it originates from it's very often tied to people, organizations or states that simply want to destabilize the countries and populations it's aimed at. Hence the 'throw everthing and see what sticks'. There's no real need for any of it to come true in the long run, and often no real interest in the actual content of the issue; it's all about destabilizing, undermining unity, etc.
> In Russian eyes, long term stategic health problems and societal divide as a result of all this antivaxbullshit is a complete win simply because it weakens western societies by destabilizing them. Similarly they'll latch on to anything else that can create or amplify fissures, be it a farmers protest, racial issues, focus on ethnonationalism, leaving the EU (Brexit was arguably the biggest succes Russian secret services had within Europe), etc. Similarly, in the past Russia has also been tied to amplifying and/or supporting certain green movements because their interests alligned. So for example they were pretty big on supporting anti-shale movements in Eastern Europe because it would have led to energy independence from Russia if they went down this path, taking away their main source of leverage.
> Once you know what to look for it becomes pretty straightforward to recognize the Russian trolls, Russian bought-and-paid-for 'politicians', or people who bought into or read their message. There's a lot of common strands.


totally agree! I guess we can consider oursleves lucky in discovering the Russians did not do too well internally either...neither with their vaccination numbers nor with executing operations.


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## Barmoley

MarcelNL said:


> totally agree! I guess we can consider oursleves lucky in discovering the Russians did not do too well internally either...neither with their vaccination numbers nor with executing operations.


Not that I disagree with you guys about conspiracy theories in general or even vaccinations in particular. I just wanted to point out that you sound like conspiracy theoriests yourselves. You can't possibly believe that Russia and China are to blame for all the things you seem to blame them for.


----------



## MarcelNL

Barmoley said:


> Not that I disagree with you guys about conspiracy theories in general or even vaccinations in particular. I just wanted to point out that you sound like conspiracy theoriests yourselves. You can't possibly believe that Russia and China are to blame for all the things you seem to blame them for.


good point, yet after digging into some background over the last few months I tend to think THAT conspiracy is more likely than any of the others (controlling weather, implanted chips, etc). It's not that China and Russia are to blame for everything, it seems quite likely to me that their hybrid warfare -the 'primakov doctrine'- is a key contributor.








The Primakov (Not Gerasimov) Doctrine in Action


The Primakov doctrine has set Russia’s recent course. The Kremlin must decide if it should continue to follow the doctrine, or if it should pursue a more robust set of global ambitions.




carnegieendowment.org


----------



## Barmoley

I have absolutely no doubt that Russia, China, USA, etc try to impose their world views and believes on the rest of the world and effect others through economic, informational, cultural, military and other means. There is also no question in my mind that Russia sees the US and NATO as a opponent and would do what it can to distabilize them. I just think you give them too much power and ability in doing so. Russian COVID denial and vaccine opposition was much, much higher than in the US for example


----------



## gregfisk

I don’t have any idea how much influence Russia or China has over our US society but I’m certain that they try. IMO, if we use our brains and logic it’s fairly difficult for them to influence use as a whole. Why so many people believe all of these conspiracy theories I will never know. I used to think that most Americans were pretty intelligent but that has completely gone out the window in the last two plus years. What’s missing in people’s lives that allows them to believe that the government and or big pharma are against them and trying to harm them?


----------



## ian

gregfisk said:


> big pharma are against them and trying to harm them?



 Cue endless news articles about the opioid epidemic.


----------



## MarcelNL

ian said:


> Cue endless news articles about the opioid epidemic.


that is something pretty unique to the US, I have always wondered why nobody has looked into the gaps in the system and plugged those.


----------



## Ant4d

Drug companies are going to cash in and they keep developing new vaccine for covid variants. Lucky to have them though.
I would be happy to pay some $$ and stay alive.


----------



## ian

MarcelNL said:


> that is something pretty unique to the US, I have always wondered why nobody has looked into the gaps in the system and plugged those.



Because the companies have a lot of lobbying power? There’s so much f’ed up stuff here that survives for the same reason.


----------



## MarcelNL

ian said:


> Because the companies have a lot of lobbying power? There’s so much f’ed up stuff here that survives for the same reason.


perhaps that, and a lot of pretty dumb Dr's trying to make easy money by keeping patients happy (don't ask how I know).
You can lobby what you want making a drug available but then someone with an MD needs to prescribe the stuff to start with.


----------



## Grayswandir

Has anyone heard that the idiots have made a strain of covid with an 80% mortality rate?

Boston University Creates a new Covid strain that has an 80% kill rate 

Isn't this what happened the first time around?


----------



## ian

Grayswandir said:


> Boston University Creates a new Covid strain that has an 80% kill rate



Yikes! Keep that stuff away from me. 



Grayswandir said:


> Isn't this what happened the first time around?



Unclear!


----------



## Grayswandir

Yeah, it is unclear. I doubt we'll ever learn what really happened. Knowing that they're making super covid strains for fun worries me. We've got enough troubles in the world already.


----------



## MarcelNL

Grayswandir said:


> Yeah, it is unclear. I doubt we'll ever learn what really happened. Knowing that they're making super covid strains for fun worries me. We've got enough troubles in the world already.


Fun?
Since when is science for 'fun'? Try read the paper and you'll see they are exploring to find handles on future strains, there is one guarantee; new strains will appear. Same thing happens with Ebola, Anthrax, smallpox etc

while not very accurate IMO as recently two Ebola vaccines were created fi not for this rare strain;








Uganda announces lockdown as Ebola cases rise | CNN


Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has declared an immediate three-week lockdown in two high risk districts as the country battles a rise in Ebola infections.




edition.cnn.com









Ebola Vaccine: Information about ERVEBO® | Clinicians | Ebola (Ebola Virus Disease) | CDC


A safe and effective vaccine is an important tool to protect frontline workers and prevent the introduction and spread of Ebola in the United States. On February 26, 2020, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended pre-exposure vaccination with Ervebo® for adults aged 18...




www.cdc.gov





it's pretty impossible to work on that sort of vaccines without having the pathogen at hand.


----------



## Grayswandir

MarcelNL said:


> Fun?
> Since when is science for 'fun'? Try read the paper and you'll see they are exploring to find handles on future strains, there is one guarantee; new strains will appear. Same thing happens with Ebola, Anthrax, smallpox etc
> 
> while not very accurate IMO as recently two Ebola vaccines were created fi not for this rare strain;
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Uganda announces lockdown as Ebola cases rise | CNN
> 
> 
> Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has declared an immediate three-week lockdown in two high risk districts as the country battles a rise in Ebola infections.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> edition.cnn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ebola Vaccine: Information about ERVEBO® | Clinicians | Ebola (Ebola Virus Disease) | CDC
> 
> 
> A safe and effective vaccine is an important tool to protect frontline workers and prevent the introduction and spread of Ebola in the United States. On February 26, 2020, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended pre-exposure vaccination with Ervebo® for adults aged 18...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cdc.gov
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> it's pretty impossible to work on that sort of vaccines without having the pathogen at hand.


I knew someone would take offense at that comment. Take a day off. I know exactly what they're doing, the problem is them not doing it very well sometimes, and the strain could escape and kill a bunch of people. I live near Fort Meade, and they've had problems in the past. We don't even know how covid started, but there's a good bit of evidence it escaped from a lab. I know there's opinions that it did not, but no one really knows, and the powers that be have no problem lying to us (for our own good of course!).


----------



## MarcelNL

Grayswandir said:


> Has anyone heard that the idiots have made a strain of covid with an 80% mortality rate?
> 
> Boston University Creates a new Covid strain that has an 80% kill rate
> 
> Isn't this what happened the first time around?


it sure did not sound like you understand what they are doing...of course that sort of research is risky but I do know one thing, the risk of strains escaping from such a controlled environment is far lower than the risk of what is creeping out of the tundra, rainforest etc right now due to global warming. 

I vote for doing research in order to have a chance of being prepared when something breaks loose by crossing over into another species than having to scramble to start doing research after finding out the hard way.


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## Luftmensch

Grayswandir said:


> there's a good bit of evidence it escaped from a lab. I know there's opinions that it did not



Your language usage is interesting. "Evidence" that there is some conspiracy or cover up going on.... And only "opinions" that it is a naturally occuring pathogen.

This is exemplifies the discussion about disinformation.

I guess there is a philosophical question about truth and belief. We won't ever know the '_true_' origins of Covid... So _believe_ what you will. You can choose to follow mainstream scientific discourse... or the more exciting world of possibilities that confirm you pre-existing biases.

These fairly prosaic articles [1], [2] or [3] might convince you that the virus likely originated somewhere along a zoonotic chain. Or they might not. If not; ask yourself.... why just covid? There are a lot of awful diseases in the world to choose from.


----------



## Luftmensch

Barmoley said:


> I have absolutely no doubt that Russia, China, USA, etc try to impose their world views and believes on the rest of the world and effect others through economic, informational, cultural, military and other means. There is also no question in my mind that Russia sees the US and NATO as a opponent and would do what it can to distabilize them. I just think you give them too much power and ability in doing so.



Maybe it is naive of me... but I agree.

Clearly there is a cold war of disinformation... The thing is... there is an active market for 'bad' ideas. In fact, I'll go one step further. My instinct is that the most successful disinformation campaigns aren't invented overseas. Savvy foreign actors likely look for local narratives that serve their objectives and amplify them.

Partisan politics, biased media and a lack of trust in institutions are all largely domestic issues. Social media is a catalyst for these problems. While foreign actors can definitely take advantage of these weaknesses, they didnt create them.


----------



## Michi

Remember, "they" can control the weather…

What it all boils down to is lack of education. Unfortunately, the majority of people do not have even a half-decent science background, and even fewer understand the scientific method.

And, forever after, if your uncle got Covid and got well after taking Ivermectin, it must have been the Ivermectin. And if your mate's best friend also got Covid and got well after taking Ivermectin, there must be a conspiracy to keep that drug out of people's hands. Never mind asking _why_ "the deep state" would want to withhold effective medication from the populace.

The plural of "anecdote" is "anecdotes", not "evidence". Sadly, almost no-one understands that.


----------



## Jovidah

MarcelNL said:


> totally agree! I guess we can consider oursleves lucky in discovering the Russians did not do too well internally either...neither with their vaccination numbers nor with executing operations.


While they may not have been as succesfull with their own vaccinations (due to a justified distrust of the Russian government), and their kinetic operations have fallen far short of their own expectations (luckily!), I wouldn't underestimate how succesful their (mis)information operations in the last decade have been. Compared to the cold war the Kremlin-cronies have a far higher electorate than they ever had during the cold war...and they even have 'friendlies' like Orban in power in western institutions. 
The measure of success they've had in framing and dictating narrative on the Ukrainian war since 2014 - even in western media - is outright appaling. Even 'respectable' media uncritically followed their narratives of 'Russian-speaking rebels welcoming support from the Russian army', instead of calling it what it really was: a Russian-equipped, Russian-led invasion, that stalled due to lack of local support until they sent their own conventional army into the fray to push the Ukrainians back from the border.
Even respectable media let themselves get played like a fiddle, which allows them to air their WW3/Nuclear scare tactics on a global stage to stave off direct intervention.

Ask yourself... how often have you seen the map from the 2012 UA elections that's used to support the Russian narrative, and how often have you seen the map of the 1991 independence referendum that had both Donetsk and Luhansk oblast voting overwhelmingly for independence from Russia (80-85%). For the record even Crimea voted for independence back then.
There's also a lot of helpful idiots and intelligentsia who have become either willingly or unwillingly become Kremlin mouthpieces...to the point that you can pretty much predict in advance what they're going to say.


Barmoley said:


> Not that I disagree with you guys about conspiracy theories in general or even vaccinations in particular. I just wanted to point out that you sound like conspiracy theoriests yourselves. You can't possibly believe that Russia and China are to blame for all the things you seem to blame them for.


Except that nothing I said above here is controversial in the slightest... it's all quite well-known and familiar to anyone who has a clue about Russia or what's talked about in security circles. This isn't new either... during the Cold War the KGB arguably spent more effort on 'active measures' than on gathering intelligence. There's no reason to assume this stop given the continuity between Soviet and Russian security institutions. The only real difference is that through the internet they've gotten a far bigger reach.
This has pretty obviously been going on for the last few decades... most of Europe just decided to stick its head in the sand and hoped the problem would go away and thought Putin was someone they could control.

Also like I said; they don't necessarily originate everything, but they have a habbit of latching on to things, amplifying, etc. It's really hard to really put a measure on how big their influence is at the end of the day. But their influence on framing and setting narratives in the past decade is pretty obvious and well researched. You can see it in how people perceived the Russian-Ukrainian war since 2014, in how people perceived certain groups and actors within Syria, etc. For example their campaign to cast shade against the white helmetes has been quite succesful.
(Specifically speaking about Russia because that's more my expertise, but every I've seen every indication that China is acting rather similar).


Barmoley said:


> I have absolutely no doubt that Russia, China, USA, etc try to impose their world views and believes on the rest of the world and effect others through economic, informational, cultural, military and other means. There is also no question in my mind that Russia sees the US and NATO as a opponent and would do what it can to distabilize them. I just think you give them too much power and ability in doing so. Russian COVID denial and vaccine opposition was much, much higher than in the US for example


The irony is that Russia in some ways has the same problems controlling the narratives within their own population as western governments do. Distrust of the government is higher in Russia than here, hence they had issues with vaccine adoption. 
But it's really hard to overestimate the amount of effort Russia put into destabilization and (mis)information in the west, and the amount of success they've had in the last decade. Like I said, none of this is controversial in the approriate academic / security circles, but for some reason it rarely gets voiced in more mainstream channels. Some politicians have been blatantly obvious Kremlin cronies for at least a decade but they rarely if ever got called out on it.


----------



## Jovidah

Grayswandir said:


> I knew someone would take offense at that comment. Take a day off. I know exactly what they're doing, the problem is them not doing it very well sometimes, and the strain could escape and kill a bunch of people. I live near Fort Meade, and they've had problems in the past. We don't even know how covid started, but there's a good bit of evidence it escaped from a lab. I know there's opinions that it did not, but no one really knows, and the powers that be have no problem lying to us (for our own good of course!).





MarcelNL said:


> it sure did not sound like you understand what they are doing...of course that sort of research is risky but I do know one thing, the risk of strains escaping from such a controlled environment is far lower than the risk of what is creeping out of the tundra, rainforest etc right now due to global warming.
> 
> I vote for doing research in order to have a chance of being prepared when something breaks loose by crossing over into another species than having to scramble to start doing research after finding out the hard way.





Luftmensch said:


> Your language usage is interesting. "Evidence" that there is some conspiracy or cover up going on.... And only "opinions" that it is a naturally occuring pathogen.
> 
> This is exemplifies the discussion about disinformation.
> 
> I guess there is a philosophical question about truth and belief. We won't ever know the '_true_' origins of Covid... So _believe_ what you will. You can choose to follow mainstream scientific discourse... or the more exciting world of possibilities that confirm you pre-existing biases.
> 
> These fairly prosaic articles [1], [2] or [3] might convince you that the virus likely originated somewhere along a zoonotic chain. Or they might not. If not; ask yourself.... why just covid? There are a lot of awful diseases in the world to choose from.


Actually regarding origins of the virus... Grayswandir isn't entirely off his rocker here. While it's impossible to really give a definitive answer anymore as to its origins, especially when any WHO investigations were the equivalent of visiting a murder scene after you gave the murderer a full year to tamper with the crime scene to hide all the evidence (and they have a huge incentive to do so).... _there's enough smoke that you cannot rule out there was a fire_.

Just go on pubmed and look at the articles coming out of the Wuhan lab; you can find articles from years before the start of COVID dealing with SARS/AIDS hybrids and all kinds of other funny business not too far off from COVID.... just like you can find concerns about the lab from the US side over their security, specifically over the risk of accidental release. All of this can be found in 'untainted' sources that precede COVID events.

Does that prove anything? No, not definitively, and most likely we'll never know for sure. But to cast off speculations about COVID resulting from an accidental release of a lab project as nothing but conspiracy theory would be foolish. 

What I give less credit to is theories about an intentional release / deliberate bioweapon attack. Those just make little sense considering the location, scope, sequence of events, etc.
The entire Chinese response is also more typical of trying to contain an accidental release, but this is again mostly circumstantial. There's a lot of smoke, but simply not enough to say whether there was or wasn't a fire...


----------



## MarcelNL

I agree, we do not know what the origin of SARS-Covid 2019 is, and it hardly matters...it is here to stay and I do prefer science to engage in how to prevent further major impact of it by tinkering with the known strains allowing us to prepare. The chance that something creeps out from under the door of one of those labs is there, knowing how these labs work I'll take that over sitting back doing nothing and allow us to be 'amazed' what pops out on the other end of the fast breeding reactor we have allowed large parts of the world to become.


----------



## Grayswandir

MarcelNL said:


> it sure did not sound like you understand what they are doing...of course that sort of research is risky but I do know one thing, the risk of strains escaping from such a controlled environment is far lower than the risk of what is creeping out of the tundra, rainforest etc right now due to global warming.
> 
> I vote for doing research in order to have a chance of being prepared when something breaks loose by crossing over into another species than having to scramble to start doing research after finding out the hard way.


Probably because you made an erroneous assumption about a person you don't know. I think a lot people have a false sense of security in regards to how easily a virus could escape from a lab (and they have escaped, many times), even under biosafety level 4 conditions. We're getting too big for our britches, and the same people you seem to be in awe of are the very same people who are destroying the earth, or at least destroying its suitability for sustaining human life.

Luftmensch, 

Are you really so naive it think the world isn't filled with conspiracy? Crack open a history book, they're filled with conspiracies of every kind. Why are some people so arrogant to think that somehow conspiracies no longer exist? I'm not talking about Elvis sightings or little gray aliens by any means. Disinformation and misinformation flows in both directions. Ask yourself who, historically speaking, has told more big lies, the people or the governments we allegedly create?

Controlling the weather is a misnomer Michi, but we can certainly manipulate it, and with a degree of control must people never imagined was possible. You can still find the information, despite the Internet becoming more Orwellian by the day. I don't take Ivermectin, but I do know the media purposely misrepresented it and made it sound "conspiratorial". Maybe that's the disinformation Luftmensch was talking about, I don't really know. 

Meanwhile, all those vaccines they developed at the speed of light, with little oversight and no testing, based on new vaccine technology (mRNA). It doesn't work and has lead to more then a handful of deaths so far. Now they're pushing it hard on infants and young children. The vaccines had no effect in slowing down the transmission of covid, something they told us it did, and a fact they like to skip over as quickly as possible when people start asking questions. 

Thinking critically, especially in this day and age, well, it's more important now then at any other point in history. Questioning "authority" should never be anathema, especially where it matters most, in the halls of academia, in government, and in the media. Unfortunately, that's exactly what's been happening, and it's gone mainstream. If you're not a lemming, you're a "conspiracy theorist". I find it all more then a little bit disconcerting. If you start asking questions, you're immediately lumped together with characters like Alex Jones.

By the way, I love science, but it's simply a way to study and understand the world around us, a very simple method that when used correctly, can be very valuable and lead to amazing discoveries and new technologies. Why would anyone be against the seeking out of knowledge and furthering our understanding of the reality we currently find ourselves living in? It's not a sacred cow though, and shouldn't be treated as such. Imagine if the wrong people had a stranglehold on "science" and the only opinions that mattered was their own? Peer reviewed research would become meaningless, at least to a certain degree, depending on the field of study.


----------



## Grayswandir

MarcelNL said:


> I agree, we do not know what the origin of SARS-Covid 2019 is, and it hardly matters...it is here to stay and I do prefer science to engage in how to prevent further major impact of it by tinkering with the known strains allowing us to prepare. The chance that something creeps out from under the door of one of those labs is there, knowing how these labs work I'll take that over sitting back doing nothing and allow us to be 'amazed' what pops out on the other end of the fast breeding reactor we have allowed large parts of the world to become.


It matters.


----------



## Jovidah

Luftmensch said:


> Maybe it is naive of me... but I agree.
> 
> Clearly there is a cold war of disinformation... The thing is... there is an active market for 'bad' ideas. In fact, I'll go one step further. My instinct is that the most successful disinformation campaigns aren't invented overseas. Savvy foreign actors likely look for local narratives that serve their objectives and amplify them.
> 
> Partisan politics, biased media and a lack of trust in institutions are all largely domestic issues. Social media is a catalyst for these problems. While foreign actors can definitely take advantage of these weaknesses, they didnt create them.


The problem with social media is that it's rather trivial to fill it with fake accounts... you could see this playing out in real-time on twitter in both the lead-up and follow-up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It's like a chorus all singing to the same note and the same conductor... all coming out with very predictable narritives. First it was 'lets not escalate! NATO intervention would mean world war 3!', then it was 'save lives because arming Ukraine will only cost more lives in the long run', and then came the predictable 'we must stop the killing we need a ceasefire / peaceful solution now' when it became obvious that Russia's invasion stalled, they lost the momentum and wanted to solidify their gains by freezing the conflict.

I do agree that they don't originate everything. They're pretty opportunistic at just running with everything. That's also when they're at their best since it's less blatantly obvious who's behind it. On Ukraine you could see the veneer coming off a lot of their info-ops because they were forced to improvise as things weren't going according to plan. 

Similarly, in the past you can imagine that some politicians chose to throw their lot in with Russia because they figured 'what's the harm'... ironically even after the 2014 invasions they were still somehow seen as a 'respectable partner', because apparently invading and annexing your neighbours territory isn't that big of a deal if you do it rather efficiently...  
I can imagine at least some of them would have made different choices had they known back then what happened in february 2022.


----------



## Jovidah

MarcelNL said:


> I agree, we do not know what the origin of SARS-Covid 2019 is, and it hardly matters...it is here to stay and I do prefer science to engage in how to prevent further major impact of it by tinkering with the known strains allowing us to prepare. The chance that something creeps out from under the door of one of those labs is there, knowing how these labs work I'll take that over sitting back doing nothing and allow us to be 'amazed' what pops out on the other end of the fast breeding reactor we have allowed large parts of the world to become.


Yeah I think it's a rather fruitless affair to debate the origins because there's a very high chance we're simply never able to call it one way or the other (barring some very unlikely sequence of events leading to a democratization of China and opening of all their archives). In the end it's just 'something we have to deal with'.

As to using it as an argument in bio-research security discussions... I'm honestly don't consider myself informed enough to say a lot about it. But just like with Chernobyl I'm wary of extrapolating this one incident to an entire industry. As I mentioned Wuhan was already considered a point of concern when it came to security before the COVID events.


----------



## MarcelNL

Grayswandir said:


> Probably because you made an erroneous assumption about a person you don't know. I think a lot people have a false sense of security in regards to how easily a virus could escape from a lab (and they have escaped, many times), even under biosafety level 4 conditions. We're getting too big for our britches, and the same people you seem to be in awe of are the very same people who are destroying the earth, or at least destroying its suitability for sustaining human life.
> 
> Luftmensch,
> 
> Are you really so naive it think the world isn't filled with conspiracy? Crack open a history book, they're filled with conspiracies of every kind. Why are some people so arrogant to think that somehow conspiracies no longer exist? I'm not talking about Elvis sightings or little gray aliens by any means. Disinformation and misinformation flows in both directions. Ask yourself who, historically speaking, has told more big lies, the people or the governments we allegedly create?
> 
> Controlling the weather is a misnomer Michi, but we can certainly manipulate it, and with a degree of control must people never imagined was possible. You can still find the information, despite the Internet becoming more Orwellian by the day. I don't take Ivermectin, but I do know the media purposely misrepresented it and made it sound "conspiratorial". Maybe that's the disinformation Luftmensch was talking about, I don't really know.
> 
> Meanwhile, all those vaccines they developed at the speed of light, with little oversight and no testing, based on new vaccine technology (mRNA). It doesn't work and has lead to more then a handful of deaths so far. Now they're pushing it hard on infants and young children. The vaccines had no effect in slowing down the transmission of covid, something they told us it did, and a fact they like to skip over as quickly as possible when people start asking questions.
> 
> Thinking critically, especially in this day and age, well, it's more important now then at any other point in history. Questioning "authority" should never be anathema, especially where it matters most, in the halls of academia, in government, and in the media. Unfortunately, that's exactly what's been happening, and it's gone mainstream. If you're not a lemming, you're a "conspiracy theorist". I find it all more then a little bit disconcerting. If you start asking questions, you're immediately lumped together with characters like Alex Jones.
> 
> By the way, I love science, but it's simply a way to study and understand the world around us, a very simple method that when used correctly, can be very valuable and lead to amazing discoveries and new technologies. Why would anyone be against the seeking out of knowledge and furthering our understanding of the reality we currently find ourselves living in? It's not a sacred cow though, and shouldn't be treated as such. Imagine if the wrong people had a stranglehold on "science" and the only opinions that mattered was their own? Peer reviewed research would become meaningless, at least to a certain degree, depending on the field of study.


too many conspiracy commonplaces, exaggerations and probably a few straw men in one message, I opt out


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## ian

I feel like there are a lot of absolutist views being put forward here.

I mean, yes it matters where covid came from, which is why people spent a lot of time trying to find out. It's not the most important thing to figure out by any means, but it does matter. And maybe we won't ever be able to resolve this, which is ok, but some of the opinions above seem to use this as a reason why it doesn't matter, which doesn't make sense.

And isn't there a legitimate cost/benefit discussion about gain of function research in the scientific community? I mean, correct me if I'm wrong, but it's not like this is the only way to protect against future strains. Dismissing someone's qualms about it as ignorant and misguided seems nearly as extreme as calling for an immediate end to such research. Noone's really an expert here, as far as I know. I personally am inclined to let the research go forward, because of my general pro-science attitude, but I'm also aware that this inclination is not based on any sort of rigorous cost/benefit analysis, so is basically worthless.


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## tcmx3

ian said:


> I feel like there are a lot of absolutist views being put forward here.
> 
> I mean, yes it matters where covid came from, which is why people spent a lot of time trying to find out. It's not the most important thing to figure out by any means, but it does matter. And maybe we won't ever be able to resolve this, which is ok, but some of the opinions above seem to use this as a reason why it doesn't matter, which doesn't make sense.
> 
> And isn't there a legitimate cost/benefit discussion about gain of function research in the scientific community? I mean, correct me if I'm wrong, but it's not like this is the only way to protect against future strains. Dismissing someone's qualms about it as ignorant and misguided seems nearly as extreme as calling for an immediate end to such research. Noone's really an expert here, as far as I know. I personally am inclined to let the research go forward, because of my general pro-science attitude, but I'm also aware that this inclination is not based on any sort of rigorous cost/benefit analysis, so is basically worthless.


tbh I would LOVE a cost benefit analysis of continued covid research versus either another highway lane expansion that has never and will never ameliorate traffic congestion or the marginal benefit of having one more aircraft carrier.


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## sansho

tcmx3 said:


> tbh I would LOVE a cost benefit analysis of continued covid research versus either another highway lane expansion that has never and will never ameliorate traffic congestion or the marginal benefit of having one more aircraft carrier.



for entertainment purposes, sure. but that's not the kind of analysis that's important.

those proposals are apples-to-oranges in the sense that GoF research has essentially unlimited risk. excluding 'butterfly effect' assessments, there's a practical limit on the harm a highway lane or a boat can create, and it's pretty low.

i'm not opposed to GoF research. just saying.


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## MarcelNL

cost benefit...? in cost, human life saved, quality of life, or all of those?

cost benefit of science is what IMHO is one of the reasons for scientific fraud and publication pressure, some portion of science just needs to happen without the expectation that something comes out, allow it to stumble across something new and important. The illusion of control drove pharma away from labs doing a mix of basic and targeted research and got them into 'high throughput screening' that went out of fashion fast when it did not pay off...that became molecular level HTS and gene HTS, we'll see how those fare in future years.


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## SirCutAlot

gettin cool here!


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## ian

MarcelNL said:


> cost benefit of science is what IMHO is one of the reasons for scientific fraud and publication pressure, some portion of science just needs to happen without the expectation that something comes out, allow it to stumble across something new and important. The illusion of control drove pharma away from labs doing a mix of basic and targeted research and got them into 'high throughput screening' that went out of fashion fast when it did not pay off...that became molecular level HTS and gene HTS, we'll see how those fare in future years.



This paragraph only makes sense if the cost is low, like if there’s limited danger and you’re just arguing about funding. As the recipient of multiple government grants for research that’s practically useless, I support the idea that we should fund a wide variety of projects.

But this argument doesn’t make any sense if you try to apply it absolutely. It’s obvious that you don’t want to run experiments that endanger human civilization, so if you make a choice to support gain of function research it’s because you think that the benefits outweigh the risks, which is a cost benefit analysis. If your view is that all possible experiments are good, that’s obviously wrong and doesn’t contribute to the conversation.


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## MarcelNL

Oh I definitely think there are experiments that are not good and should probably not be performed, yet at the same time I also do not think that the cost (monetary) of an experiment should be a primary decisive factor beyond the practical implications cost typically has...there is only so much to go around. Triage, or rather deciding who gets how much is a different can of worms. We're probably more concerned about RISK benefit for some experiments.


----------



## tcmx3

sansho said:


> for entertainment purposes, sure. but that's not the kind of analysis that's important.
> 
> those proposals are apples-to-oranges in the sense that GoF research has essentially unlimited risk. excluding 'butterfly effect' assessments, *there's a practical limit on the harm a highway lane or a boat can create, and it's pretty low.*
> 
> i'm not opposed to GoF research. just saying.



have you seen before/photos of Boston or Austin and the huge expansions? Plus these projects are all grift city.

Anyway my whole point is if someone is going to nickel and dime vaccine research I want an honest accounting of the stuff we do that has literal zero positive impact. The number of aircraft carriers we have is so great that an additional one does nothing except line some pockets.


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## ian

Ok, maybe everyone’s just getting confused because we’re using cost in two different ways. In this discussion, I’m using a larger definition of cost, where “killing everyone” is a big cost. Others maybe want to call this risk, not cost, which is fine. If you want to replace cost/benefit with risk/benefit everywhere above, please do.


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## sansho

ian said:


> In this discussion, I’m using a larger definition of cost, where “killing everyone” is a big cost.



sure. that and financial risk which is also huge. idk what has bigger financial consequences than a pandemic.. i guess climate change or a world war...


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## Keith Sinclair

Crimean Tartar's were ethnically cleansed orders from Joseph Stalin cultural genocide. Crimea became part of Ukraine. A major Russian seaport. Kiev is a ancient city one of greatest in Russia predating all other major Russian cities. Stalin liked killing starving Ukrainians too. It's been going on all through history up to the present. Turks tried to wipe out Armenians during WW1. 

When Soviet Union broke up in 1991 most of Union wanted own independence from Russia. This is too much for Putin he took over Crimea first many Ukrainians & Tartar's disappeared. Big pictures of Putin everywhere god like as Kim Jong - Un on a white horse in North Korea. He went to grab all the natural resource areas in Ukraine murdering Ukrainians. He is one of richest men in the world getting cuts from all of Russian industry.


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## MarcelNL

there is a Russian documentary about Jeltsin around the time when Putin came to power, very interesting piece of inside info, 'Putin's witness'.

Back to Covid, after all this time our national system of booking an appointment for a booster has not improved...trying to book a slot shows that I have to travel at least 30 km while there are 4 locations near me.


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## Jovidah

tcmx3 said:


> have you seen before/photos of Boston or Austin and the huge expansions? Plus these projects are all grift city.
> 
> Anyway my whole point is if someone is going to nickel and dime vaccine research I want an honest accounting of the stuff we do that has literal zero positive impact. The number of aircraft carriers we have is so great that an additional one does nothing except line some pockets.


The general problem here is that vaccines (research) is in the category of preventive measures, and preventive measures are always a tough sell. They're hard to sell politically because the need / payoff isn't as directly obvious, you don't have the historical 'what-if', and even in hindsight it's hard to directly prove effect / alternative outcomes. Even when the general consensus is that preventives measures are generally a good investment. Pretty much applies to a lot of sectors, whether it's healthcare, psychology, or defense. People generally don't like to spend money until a problem is blatantly obvious, and until then many will consider it a waste.

You actually give a good example yourself. Many don't see the point in investing in security / defense when there isn't a very direct and obvious threat; most would rather take the peace dividend. Yet the problem is that you cannot build up these capacities once a war starts; at that point it's simply too late. From the moment you start building a carrier until the time of commissioning takes 5-10 years. Then once they're in service, you can excpect to have about 1/2 of your fleet in the water at any moment in time at best (due to maintenance, training requirements, etc). Naval strategy = build strategy, and currently the US is navy is actually already in a very worrying position vs China due to mistakes in what they build in the last 2 decades.

But it's very hard to do the math on security / defense spending if no war happened. It's obvious that it's economically beneficial to keep the peace, and 'pax americana' benefits not just US but most in the western world, but there's no easy way to say how good of an investment it was. We do however have some historical examples of what can happen when you 'fail' this preventive measure. 
In 1939 both the Netherlands and Denmark declared neutrality. Neither had much of an option since both massively neglected defense spending in the preceding decades. Both countries were attacked regardless, and both countries had to surrender within a week. The only reason either country regained it's independence was because they were lucky enough that others paid the price for their liberation.
On the flipside, Ukraine took its defense very seriously since the first Russian invasion in 2014. If they hadn't, Ukraine wouldn't exist anymore today.

But just like with vaccines... it's hard to do the math on it, and a lot of the 'gains', whether from vaccines or security investments are not necessarily financial. People sounded the alarm about our unpreparedness for global pandemics for decades, yet few people cared until a pandemic actually happened.


----------



## Jovidah

Keith Sinclair said:


> Crimean Tartar's were ethnically cleansed orders from Joseph Stalin cultural genocide. Crimea became part of Ukraine. A major Russian seaport. Kiev is a ancient city one of greatest in Russia predating all other major Russian cities. Stalin liked killing starving Ukrainians too. It's been going on all through history up to the present. Turks tried to wipe out Armenians during WW1.
> 
> When Soviet Union broke up in 1991 most of Union wanted own independence from Russia. This is too much for Putin he took over Crimea first many Ukrainians & Tartar's disappeared. Big pictures of Putin everywhere god like as Kim Jong - Un on a white horse in North Korea. He went to grab all the natural resource areas in Ukraine murdering Ukrainians. He is one of richest men in the world getting cuts from all of Russian industry.


Generally correct but a bit oversimplified. But Ukrainian history - and quest for independence - goes back much further. It's no coincidence that a shortlived Ukrainian state actually existed during the dissolution of the Russian empire, until it was eventually reconquered by the Red Army. Ukrainian (language) history just never got much attention in the west because it was always looked at through a Russian lens.

It's part of a bigger pattern of Russian subjugation of non-Russians in their empire and deliberate Russofication... which was deliberate policy already during the original Russian empire period, but continued during the USSR period and made a return again in recent times under the Russian Federation in occupied territories of Ukraine. The name may have changed, but Russia always was, and still is functioning like an empire.
It's quite ironic that in their propaganda they claim to be fighting 'imperical domination from the west' when in reality Russia is basically the last remaining European empire.

Cultural genocide on ethnic minorities and conquered territories has been a constant in Russian history, and up until today non-Russian ethnicities usually end up getting the shittier end of the stick. Economically they gain very little from Russian economic windfalls in the last couple of decades, while in times of war they carry the main burden when it comes to casualties. If you look at the regional distribution of casualties, the vast differences between regions like Buryatia and Tuva vs Moscow and Leningrad make it hard to escape the notion that the non-Russians are used as cannon fodder...

Personally I think Putin's motivations for going into Ukraine weren't so much directly financial but more motivated by a desire to 'rebuild the Empire' and a pursuit of personal 'glory'. There wasn't necessarily a requirement for big financial gain simply because there was never perceived to be a big cost to this invasion. They thought it would be an easy matter finished in a few days after which Europe would grumble a bit and continue business as usual just like after the invasions of Crimea and the Donbas in 2014. After all the problems caused by COVID, the time was ripe...
He was never motivated by fear, he was motivated by (perceived) opportunity.


----------



## MarcelNL

Jovidah said:


> It's quite ironic that in their propaganda they claim to be fighting 'imperical domination from the west' when in reality Russia is basically the last remaining European empire.


My theory is that this is 'for old times sake', a continuation of soviet propaganda.
It probably ís easier and more effective to stick with the old party lines than inventing a whole new story....building on the fear of a western invasion that is ingrained in Russian minds, similar to our propaganda about the threat from the east...which ultimately has been proven to be closer to the truth. 
It's good to see he is taken over command of the invasion, I count on the principle of l'histoire se répète!

to my surprise are the global Covid numbers not up by much yet, although it appears to be on the rise again...


----------



## Grayswandir

Jovidah said:


> Generally correct but a bit oversimplified. But Ukrainian history - and quest for independence - goes back much further. It's no coincidence that a shortlived Ukrainian state actually existed during the dissolution of the Russian empire, until it was eventually reconquered by the Red Army. Ukrainian (language) history just never got much attention in the west because it was always looked at through a Russian lens.
> 
> It's part of a bigger pattern of Russian subjugation of non-Russians in their empire and deliberate Russofication... which was deliberate policy already during the original Russian empire period, but continued during the USSR period and made a return again in recent times under the Russian Federation in occupied territories of Ukraine. The name may have changed, but Russia always was, and still is functioning like an empire.
> It's quite ironic that in their propaganda they claim to be fighting 'imperical domination from the west' when in reality Russia is basically the last remaining European empire.
> 
> Cultural genocide on ethnic minorities and conquered territories has been a constant in Russian history, and up until today non-Russian ethnicities usually end up getting the shittier end of the stick. Economically they gain very little from Russian economic windfalls in the last couple of decades, while in times of war they carry the main burden when it comes to casualties. If you look at the regional distribution of casualties, the vast differences between regions like Buryatia and Tuva vs Moscow and Leningrad make it hard to escape the notion that the non-Russians are used as cannon fodder...
> 
> Personally I think Putin's motivations for going into Ukraine weren't so much directly financial but more motivated by a desire to 'rebuild the Empire' and a pursuit of personal 'glory'. There wasn't necessarily a requirement for big financial gain simply because there was never perceived to be a big cost to this invasion. They thought it would be an easy matter finished in a few days after which Europe would grumble a bit and continue business as usual just like after the invasions of Crimea and the Donbas in 2014. After all the problems caused by COVID, the time was ripe...
> He was never motivated by fear, he was motivated by (perceived) opportunity.


I think the attack on Ukraine was linked to Putan's failing health, timing (Biden showing weakness) and Putin's allies within Russia being greedy. They thought the Ukrainians were going to roll over for them again, similar to Hitler's rotten barn door analogy of the Soviet Union, but it's all gone horribly wrong. I don't think Putin expected much resistance at all, hence his generals hubris in moving columns of armor slowly through the Ukrainian countryside to intimidate the Ukrainians. Instead of intimidating the Ukrainians it had the opposite effect. It became an avenue for revenge and anger. It's ironic, becuase Russian looks like it's rotton to the core, and the Ukrainians are getting stronger. Putin was trying to leave behind a legacy, instead it's become his greatest mistake.


----------



## Jovidah

MarcelNL said:


> My theory is that this is 'for old times sake', a continuation of soviet propaganda.
> It probably ís easier and more effective to stick with the old party lines than inventing a whole new story....building on the fear of a western invasion that is ingrained in Russian minds, similar to our propaganda about the threat from the east...which ultimately has been proven to be closer to the truth.
> It's good to see he is taken over command of the invasion, I count on the principle of l'histoire se répète!
> 
> to my surprise are the global Covid numbers not up by much yet, although it appears to be on the rise again...


To be fair, something that's often forgotten in 'the west' is that we're not the only audience to their propaganda. Certain narratives that fall flat here (like references to imperialism) actually are effective in other places like Africa.
And yeah it's always easier to activate existing images than to create new ones... it's just pretty obvious that their story doesn't line up with their actions. If NATO is such a giant threat, why are they depleting all your military units along NATO borders?  You could probably drive NATO tanks all the way to Moscow in a week without encountering more than token resistance. Honestly the amount of propagandizing you see in the west vs Russia has been incredibly limited... if anything you used to see Russian actions getting swept under the rug. The way their actions in 2014-2015 were portrayed and described in the media were far too kind and accomodating to their propaganda-narratives. They've been quite succesful at exploiting western media's tendency to both-sideism.


Grayswandir said:


> I think the attack on Ukraine was linked to Putan's failing health, timing (Biden showing weakness) and Putin's allies within Russia being greedy. They thought the Ukrainians were going to roll over for them again, similar to Hitler's rotten barn door analogy of the Soviet Union, but it's all gone horribly wrong. I don't think Putin expected much resistance at all, hence his generals hubris in moving columns of armor slowly through the Ukrainian countryside to intimidate the Ukrainians. Instead of intimidating the Ukrainians it had the opposite effect. It became an avenue for revenge and anger. It's ironic, becuase Russian looks like it's rotton to the core, and the Ukrainians are getting stronger. Putin was trying to leave behind a legacy, instead it's become his greatest mistake.


Honestly any claims about Putin's health are pretty much entirely based on one telegram account (GeneralSVR). While the author(s) of that account seems well-informed about the who's who of Russian politics we still have no clear indication whether that's actually a genuine insider account, just something written by someone to gather money and attention, or an information campaign run by for example Ukraine or the US. For all we know that account could be convincing fanfic. From what I've seen in footage over the last year I wouldn't rule out that he has early Parkinson but at this point it really is just a guessing game. 

You could say there was a 'now or never'-element to the timing based on other things though. COVID-related economical problems gave Russia the best negotiation position they'd ever have versus Europe, and in the long term the expectation would be that the military balance would shift against their favor (due to a combination of Ukrainian economical growth & military investment, and problems on Russia's horizon related to both existing technology sanctions and defossilization of European economies). The latter has some parallels to Japan's position in 1941 where it chose to start a risky war versus the US knowing full well that it had a solid chance of losing, but based on the perception that if they did nothing they would lose anyway due to the oil embargo.

The link to Afghanistan is one that comes up a lot in US domestic discussions but is completely false IMO. Planning for this invasion started long before the summer of '22, just like the withdrawal from Afghanistan had been in the works long before Biden even came to power, made actual strategic sense, and was an unfortunate automatic consequence of a dubious policy in Afghanistan for the last 2 decades... Everyone knew it wasn't going anywhere 10 years ago, but no one wanted to admit it. Presidencies from both parties are to blame for investing neither the commitment required to achieve success nor pulling out far earlier.
Likewise, US defense policy has been shifting away from Europe for several presidencies of both parties.

If anyone shares blame for giving Putin the idea that he could get away from it it's neither Biden, nor even Trump... it's the leaders in Europe. Because that's exactly the signal they gave in 2014-2015 and it's the same signal they gave when Russia was plastering civilian neighbourhoods into rubble in Syria.

You're correct that they expected an easy going; it's arguably one of the biggest intelligence failures in the last 100 years. The plan was basically 'drive in --> ... --> victory'. The way the columns moved wasn't so much hubris or 'meant to intimidate'. It was just an army behaving in a peacetime manner. They didn't expect or plan for a proper war... they planned for a repeat of Budapest 56 and Prague 68.
To a large extent the intelligence failure resulted from the information problems you often get in autoritarian regimes where loyalty takes precedence over merit and corruption is a feature, not a bug. Basically the information that reaches the top is complete garbage because it has been embellished and 'corrected' at every level because no one wants to be the bearer of bad news and everyone wants to look good. Same problem in the army, hence why their performance was so much worse than the people at the top expected. 

With all that in mind though, I think we should be cautious in making too much fun of them; for all their failures they came far closer to succes than they're generally given credit for. If the attack at Hostomel airport had been succesful it's actually quite possible their decapacitation strike against the regime would have succeeded. Just like an envelopment and proper siege of the capital was a very real possibility if they had managed to secure the railroad junctions at Chernihiv. And even if Ukraine ends up eventually 'winning' this war, it will still have come at a sizable human and material cost.


----------



## Grayswandir

Jovidah said:


> To be fair, something that's often forgotten in 'the west' is that we're not the only audience to their propaganda. Certain narratives that fall flat here (like references to imperialism) actually are effective in other places like Africa.
> And yeah it's always easier to activate existing images than to create new ones... it's just pretty obvious that their story doesn't line up with their actions. If NATO is such a giant threat, why are they depleting all your military units along NATO borders?  You could probably drive NATO tanks all the way to Moscow in a week without encountering more than token resistance. Honestly the amount of propagandizing you see in the west vs Russia has been incredibly limited... if anything you used to see Russian actions getting swept under the rug. The way their actions in 2014-2015 were portrayed and described in the media were far too kind and accomodating to their propaganda-narratives. They've been quite succesful at exploiting western media's tendency to both-sideism.
> 
> Honestly any claims about Putin's health are pretty much entirely based on one telegram account (GeneralSVR). While the author(s) of that account seems well-informed about the who's who of Russian politics we still have no clear indication whether that's actually a genuine insider account, just something written by someone to gather money and attention, or an information campaign run by for example Ukraine or the US. For all we know that account could be convincing fanfic. From what I've seen in footage over the last year I wouldn't rule out that he has early Parkinson but at this point it really is just a guessing game.
> 
> You could say there was a 'now or never'-element to the timing based on other things though. COVID-related economical problems gave Russia the best negotiation position they'd ever have versus Europe, and in the long term the expectation would be that the military balance would shift against their favor (due to a combination of Ukrainian economical growth & military investment, and problems on Russia's horizon related to both existing technology sanctions and defossilization of European economies). The latter has some parallels to Japan's position in 1941 where it chose to start a risky war versus the US knowing full well that it had a solid chance of losing, but based on the perception that if they did nothing they would lose anyway due to the oil embargo.
> 
> The link to Afghanistan is one that comes up a lot in US domestic discussions but is completely false IMO. Planning for this invasion started long before the summer of '22, just like the withdrawal from Afghanistan had been in the works long before Biden even came to power, made actual strategic sense, and was an unfortunate automatic consequence of a dubious policy in Afghanistan for the last 2 decades... Everyone knew it wasn't going anywhere 10 years ago, but no one wanted to admit it. Presidencies from both parties are to blame for investing neither the commitment required to achieve success nor pulling out far earlier.
> Likewise, US defense policy has been shifting away from Europe for several presidencies of both parties.
> 
> If anyone shares blame for giving Putin the idea that he could get away from it it's neither Biden, nor even Trump... it's the leaders in Europe. Because that's exactly the signal they gave in 2014-2015 and it's the same signal they gave when Russia was plastering civilian neighbourhoods into rubble in Syria.
> 
> You're correct that they expected an easy going; it's arguably one of the biggest intelligence failures in the last 100 years. The plan was basically 'drive in --> ... --> victory'. The way the columns moved wasn't so much hubris or 'meant to intimidate'. It was just an army behaving in a peacetime manner. They didn't expect or plan for a proper war... they planned for a repeat of Budapest 56 and Prague 68.
> To a large extent the intelligence failure resulted from the information problems you often get in autoritarian regimes where loyalty takes precedence over merit and corruption is a feature, not a bug. Basically the information that reaches the top is complete garbage because it has been embellished and 'corrected' at every level because no one wants to be the bearer of bad news and everyone wants to look good. Same problem in the army, hence why their performance was so much worse than the people at the top expected.
> 
> With all that in mind though, I think we should be cautious in making too much fun of them; for all their failures they came far closer to succes than they're generally given credit for. If the attack at Hostomel airport had been succesful it's actually quite possible their decapacitation strike against the regime would have succeeded. Just like an envelopment and proper siege of the capital was a very real possibility if they had managed to secure the railroad junctions at Chernihiv. And even if Ukraine ends up eventually 'winning' this war, it will still have come at a sizable human and material cost.


It would come to down to the video evidence for me (Putin's health). You clearly see in some of the appearances he's made that he's having trouble walking, his hand is shaking, and he looks bloated and pale. It could be that body doubles are being used, but I'm pretty sure at least one or two appearances were made by the real Putin, and he did not look good.


----------



## Jovidah

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying there's definitly nothing there; some of the videos I saw also made me theorize early Parkinsons disease, but at the end it's still just a guessing game. It's very risky to magnify a few bits of video a medical diagnosis and saying it would play a role in his decision making. There's just not enough evidence to support it either way.
And a lot of the deterioration you saw after the invasion could simply have resulted from stress due to things not working out.

It's also worth bearing in mind that Russia never was a one-man show. For that reason I also wouldn't expect a drastic chance of policy or behavior after Putin goes out of the picture. Any hopes for a normalization of Russia at the end of this - whether there's a negotiated end to the conflict, the death of Putin, a coup or even a civil war - are really just wishful thinking, but the chances of a drastic positive change are very very slim. We're probably stuck with something similar to post WW1 Germany.


----------



## Grayswandir

Jovidah said:


> To be fair, something that's often forgotten in 'the west' is that we're not the only audience to their propaganda. Certain narratives that fall flat here (like references to imperialism) actually are effective in other places like Africa.
> And yeah it's always easier to activate existing images than to create new ones... it's just pretty obvious that their story doesn't line up with their actions. If NATO is such a giant threat, why are they depleting all your military units along NATO borders?  You could probably drive NATO tanks all the way to Moscow in a week without encountering more than token resistance. Honestly the amount of propagandizing you see in the west vs Russia has been incredibly limited... if anything you used to see Russian actions getting swept under the rug. The way their actions in 2014-2015 were portrayed and described in the media were far too kind and accomodating to their propaganda-narratives. They've been quite succesful at exploiting western media's tendency to both-sideism.
> 
> Honestly any claims about Putin's health are pretty much entirely based on one telegram account (GeneralSVR). While the author(s) of that account seems well-informed about the who's who of Russian politics we still have no clear indication whether that's actually a genuine insider account, just something written by someone to gather money and attention, or an information campaign run by for example Ukraine or the US. For all we know that account could be convincing fanfic. From what I've seen in footage over the last year I wouldn't rule out that he has early Parkinson but at this point it really is just a guessing game.
> 
> You could say there was a 'now or never'-element to the timing based on other things though. COVID-related economical problems gave Russia the best negotiation position they'd ever have versus Europe, and in the long term the expectation would be that the military balance would shift against their favor (due to a combination of Ukrainian economical growth & military investment, and problems on Russia's horizon related to both existing technology sanctions and defossilization of European economies). The latter has some parallels to Japan's position in 1941 where it chose to start a risky war versus the US knowing full well that it had a solid chance of losing, but based on the perception that if they did nothing they would lose anyway due to the oil embargo.
> 
> The link to Afghanistan is one that comes up a lot in US domestic discussions but is completely false IMO. Planning for this invasion started long before the summer of '22, just like the withdrawal from Afghanistan had been in the works long before Biden even came to power, made actual strategic sense, and was an unfortunate automatic consequence of a dubious policy in Afghanistan for the last 2 decades... Everyone knew it wasn't going anywhere 10 years ago, but no one wanted to admit it. Presidencies from both parties are to blame for investing neither the commitment required to achieve success nor pulling out far earlier.
> Likewise, US defense policy has been shifting away from Europe for several presidencies of both parties.
> 
> If anyone shares blame for giving Putin the idea that he could get away from it it's neither Biden, nor even Trump... it's the leaders in Europe. Because that's exactly the signal they gave in 2014-2015 and it's the same signal they gave when Russia was plastering civilian neighbourhoods into rubble in Syria.
> 
> You're correct that they expected an easy going; it's arguably one of the biggest intelligence failures in the last 100 years. The plan was basically 'drive in --> ... --> victory'. The way the columns moved wasn't so much hubris or 'meant to intimidate'. It was just an army behaving in a peacetime manner. They didn't expect or plan for a proper war... they planned for a repeat of Budapest 56 and Prague 68.
> To a large extent the intelligence failure resulted from the information problems you often get in autoritarian regimes where loyalty takes precedence over merit and corruption is a feature, not a bug. Basically the information that reaches the top is complete garbage because it has been embellished and 'corrected' at every level because no one wants to be the bearer of bad news and everyone wants to look good. Same problem in the army, hence why their performance was so much worse than the people at the top expected.
> 
> With all that in mind though, I think we should be cautious in making too much fun of them; for all their failures they came far closer to succes than they're generally given credit for. If the attack at Hostomel airport had been succesful it's actually quite possible their decapacitation strike against the regime would have succeeded. Just like an envelopment and proper siege of the capital was a very real possibility if they had managed to secure the railroad junctions at Chernihiv. And even if Ukraine ends up eventually 'winning' this war, it will still have come at a sizable human and material cost.


No doubt. The war has already taken thousands of lives and I'm sure thousands of more will die before it's all over. Still though, moving columns of armor out in the open like that was suicidal. I guess they really did expect zero resistance. What was really surprising to me is how incompetent the Russian officers have been.



> To a large extent the intelligence failure resulted from the information problems you often get in autoritarian regimes where loyalty takes precedence over merit and corruption is a feature, not a bug.



Besides the fact that Putin was being told things were going well, I was shocked at how unprepared they were for combat. Sure, shooting fleeing women and children isn't very difficult, but fighting an enemy on their own ground becomes and entirely different enterprise. Our generals marveled at how efficient the Russians were in Syria. They build a base in record time, moved their forces in quickly and started pounding Isis/Isil from the air in spectacular fashion. It took us by surprise and I doubt we could have done that so quickly. Bu that's the extent of their power, outside of using nukes.

We've got a guy, I think his name is Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster. He wants to change the way we engage the enemy and the way we fight wars. He wants to create a slimmed down reactionary force that can perform in the field without any resupply for at least three weeks. No heavy armor, a quick reaction force that can fight on the move without being resupplied. I read about a few years ago but I'm having trouble finding the source document. Outside of aircraft carriers, it takes us a long time to mobilize and and get boots and armor on the ground (many months at best, and up to a year or more). Our war machine moves very slow, and McMaster wants us to become lighter and faster without losing our effectiveness.

Kind of like a mini blitzkrieg, minus the combined forces doctrine two British officers came up with, which the British empire rejected and the Germans took back to Germany with them, which eventually developed into blitzkrieg.


----------



## MarcelNL

Putin has a clear case of Dictators arm combined with sheer paranoia that was enhanced by a long isolation....just compare his weird arm postures with Hitler and Stalin ;-) Apparently that comes with the territory if you sneak around and eliminate too many adversaries for your own purposes.


----------



## Jovidah

Grayswandir said:


> No doubt. The war has already taken thousands of lives and I'm sure thousands of more will die before it's all over. Still though, moving columns of armor out in the open like that was suicidal. I guess they really did expect zero resistance. What was really surprising to me is how incompetent the Russian officers have been.


It was suicidal in hindsight, but it worked just fine in the past. It's more of an intelligence screwup than a military screwup. It's not that their doctrine sucked, it's that they were not behaving according to their doctrine. 


Grayswandir said:


> Besides the fact that Putin was being told things were going well, I was shocked at how unprepared they were for combat. Sure, shooting fleeing women and children isn't very difficult, but fighting an enemy on their own ground becomes and entirely different enterprise. Our generals marveled at how efficient the Russians were in Syria. They build a base in record time, moved their forces in quickly and started pounding Isis/Isil from the air in spectacular fashion. It took us by surprise and I doubt we could have done that so quickly. Bu that's the extent of their power, outside of using nukes.


Actually in Syria the Russians spent very little time and effort fighting ISIS; they basically ignored them. They actually spent most of their time bombing and fighting civilians and moderate factions, knowing full well that the west would still consider Assad a more palatable alternative than ISIS. 
No one in the west ever marvelled over their performance, but it did give us the false belief that their Air Force had finally gotten their act together after their abysmal performance in the 2008 invasion of Georgia. Turns out they didn't.
Logistically US ability to project power in a hurry FAR outstrips that of Russia (or anyone else!). But they're good at PR and making whatever they do look like more than it really is... Even so, most analysts with a clue knew their military wasn't anywhere near as strong as said it was - it couldn't be considering their expenditure, even without corruption - but the atrocious performance of the Russian air force fell short of even the most modest expectations. 


Grayswandir said:


> We've got a guy, I think his name is Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster. He wants to change the way we engage the enemy and the way we fight wars. He wants to create a slimmed down reactionary force that can perform in the field without any resupply for at least three weeks. No heavy armor, a quick reaction force that can fight on the move without being resupplied. I read about a few years ago but I'm having trouble finding the source document. Outside of aircraft carriers, it takes us a long time to mobilize and and get boots and armor on the ground (many months at best, and up to a year or more). Our war machine moves very slow, and McMaster wants us to become lighter and faster without losing our effectiveness.
> 
> Kind of like a mini blitzkrieg, minus the combined forces doctrine two British officers came up with, which the British empire rejected and the Germans took back to Germany with them, which eventually developed into blitzkrieg.


Doctrinal shifts are nothing new. The move towards lighter and leaner has less to do with any particular epiphanies of single generals and more to do with a strategic shift towards containing China, which would result in a very different war than one fought against Russia on the European continent. That shift has been going on for over a decade (again, under different presidents of both parties), and _might_ be a contributing factor in why US decided to steer clear of direct intervention in Ukraine; in case of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan it's better not to have your hands tied and half your resources commited elsewhere.
Whether that shift to lighter or leaner is good or bad remains to be seen; no doctrine is truly tested until war starts. This is a bigger problem when it comes to the navy since there's been very little major surface combat since world war 2 - the biggest engagement was the Falkland War.

And actually I think you're overstating the US response time to a major global crisis. There are still significant prepositioned stocks all over the place, and sizable stocks packed up, shipped and ready to go. But one of the concerns versus China is that there are doubts over the ability to sustain uninterrupted lines of communication across the sea. Hence why you see more focus on ability of units to sustain themselves over longer periods of time.
But a war with China would predominantly be an air / sea / space fight. Hence why you see marines getting anti-ship missiles...


----------



## Jovidah

MarcelNL said:


> Putin has a clear case of Dictators arm combined with sheer paranoia that was enhanced by a long isolation....just compare his weird arm postures with Hitler and Stalin ;-) Apparently that comes with the territory if you sneak around and eliminate too many adversaries for your own purposes.


Actually, no joke... his self-imposed isolation during corona really does create the perfect condition for small group (self)-radicalization. The Putin now is a different Putin from a few years ago. I think that's one of the things that was missed by people who still judged Putin on his behavior from 10 years ago, when he at least _seemed _more reasonable.


----------



## MarcelNL

Jovidah said:


> Actually, no joke... his self-imposed isolation during corona really does create the perfect condition for small group (self)-radicalization. The Putin now is a different Putin from a few years ago. I think that's one of the things that was missed by people who still judged Putin on his behavior from 10 years ago, when he at least _seemed _more reasonable.


Just the part about the arm postures was a joke!


----------



## Keith Sinclair

China supported the Pol Pot communist party of Cambodia. Pol Pot was another interesting dictator. When Vietnam went to overthrow him China used as excuse to attack Vietnam's northern border. Called the border war. Soviet Union gave Vietnam intelligence & war supplies. Both sides suffered. China eventually pulled out. 

Vietnam depends on trade with China but has issues with territories in South China Sea. They also have good trade relations with the USA. 

Small countries like Vietnam & Afghanistan are the undoing of larger countries like France, USA, & Russia. US supported Afghan rebels against Russia before spending longest war in US history in Afghanistan before pulling out.


----------



## Grayswandir

Jovidah said:


> No one in the west ever marvelled over their performance, but it did give us the false belief that their Air Force had finally gotten their act together after their abysmal performance in the 2008 invasion of Georgia. Turns out they didn't.


That's not true. I literally read and listened to a few American generals being impressed at speed they deployed into Syria when it happened. Both Russia and China have closed the gap, though I don't really fear the Russians. The Chinese, being a global financial super power, they can and will challenge us in the near future. The Heritage foundation just released a new report on the threats we're most likely to face in the coming months and years, and our state of preparedness. Our military has been rated "weak", and the only branch of our armed forces to receive a strong rating was the Marines.

We don't have enough pilots, we don't have enough working planes, and our air force is aging, despite the F-22 and F-35 programs, the latter being a money pit of despair. The Air force was ranked "very weak", Our Navy "weak" our Army "marginal", but our Marines remain "Strong". We're experiencing are recruitment crisis at the moment as well.

Here's a brief quote from the report:



> It added that 'the military has seen a general erosion of capacity, capability, and readiness' that 'have become so significant' that the military's ability to fulfill its primary objective is in jeopardy.



While we're still top dog, who knows how long we'll remain so? We project power via our navy and our aircraft carriers, but it's a brave new world and a few swift boats with good missile technology could sink an entire battle group. It was already done a few times during war games the past two decades.

Iran Encounter Grimly Echoes 2002 War Game

Wiped Out in Ten Minutes - An Entire U.S. Carrier Group

I personally don't think I'm overstating the ongoing purposeful weakening of our armed forces at all. We grow weaker year by year, and it's not all that surprising. Wokeness isn't just destroying our culture, it's destroying our military as well, from the very top to the bottom.

As for doctrinal changes, it had nothing to do with the Chinese. At the time it was how the think tanks and our officer core were seeing the global landscape change in regards to warfare. Larger encounters were considered, but the doctrine was more focused on developing better quick reaction forces, not to fight a prolonged engagement or an all out war, but to deal with terrorists and other non-conventional forces.

Right now, we're weak, but we still have better weapons of war then the Chinese and Russians (in most areas but not all areas). The problem becomes smart weapons, unmanned vehicles, drones, you name it, they change the battlefield drastically. A lot of these weapons are very cheap to produce, and they're being tested in Ukraine as we speak. At one time we lead the pack, but we've fallen behind, at least publicly. I'd put money on us having all kinds of tech that no one knows about, and our enemies won't know about until we're forced to use it, just like we did in the Gulf War back in 1990-1991. Our stealth bombers shocked the world, and we used some pretty exotic tech that isn't talked about very often, but some people remember.


----------



## superworrier

Grayswandir said:


> Has anyone heard that the idiots have made a strain of covid with an 80% mortality rate?
> 
> Boston University Creates a new Covid strain that has an 80% kill rate
> 
> Isn't this what happened the first time around?


This is pretty much misinfo. They engineered mice that had a 100% mortality rate against regular covid, and then engineered a strain with a lower kill rate on these weakened mice.


----------



## Grayswandir

superworrier said:


> This is pretty much misinfo. They engineered mice that had a 100% mortality rate against regular covid, and then engineered a strain with a lower kill rate on these weakened mice.


Just like when they were experimenting on bats. We even threw a few dollars their way to help them along.


----------



## ian

superworrier said:


> This is pretty much misinfo. They engineered mice that had a 100% mortality rate against regular covid, and then engineered a strain with a lower kill rate on these weakened mice.



Awesome, nice find! 

“and 80 to 100 percent of the infected mice succumb to disease from the original strain”









NEIDL Researchers Refute UK Article about COVID Strain


Boston University is refuting a series of misleading claims about research at the University’s National Emerging Infectious Diseases Laboratories (NEIDL). BU called the reporting “false and inaccurate,” and said, “this research made the virus replicate less dangerous.”




www.bu.edu


----------



## MarcelNL

This once more clearly shows that you need to read the source material and try to understand it BEFORE making any assessment.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Mice are used a lot in research reproductive rate is high. They are mammals. 

Anti ship missiles have gotten very effective 
since the Falklands war where a ship was destroyed with a missile. Chinese have invested heavy in missiles. They know where all the sites are to hit on Taiwan. Just like Putin is doing now taking out infrastructure with missiles with winter coming on. 

May be naive but think China is smarter than Putin. They don't want to destroy Taiwan it's not in their interest to do so. Also they are watching eight months of Ukraine holding on with most of world against Putin's butchery.

The USA has best Submarines. The Virginia class SSN attack Submarine is the most advanced period that is in service. In research phase are plans for next generation attack Sub. SSN(X). 

The Columbia class will replace the aging Ohio class SSBN with nuclear warhead missiles. Stealth with modern technology pulse drive. Advanced computers. Not cheap & only two shipyards in US can build them.

With COVID-19 virus, climate change, rising sea levels, fresh water shortages, more refugees from intolerable conditions, leaders that resemble the 1930's .


----------



## Luftmensch

superworrier said:


> This is pretty much misinfo. They engineered mice that had a 100% mortality rate against regular covid, and then engineered a strain with a lower kill rate on these weakened mice.



The linked article does say it is a mouse model by the second paragraph. I stopped around there.... unalarmed. Not much further on I became fatigued by the dailymail suggesting I ought to know that Khloe Kardashian wants cleavage like her sisters...





Grayswandir said:


> Luftmensch,
> 
> Are you really so naive it think the world isn't filled with conspiracy? Crack open a history book, they're filled with conspiracies of every kind. Why are some people so arrogant to think that somehow conspiracies no longer exist? I'm not talking about Elvis sightings or little gray aliens by any means. Disinformation and misinformation flows in both directions.





You have to disambiguate between "conspiracy" and "conspiracy theory".

Conspiracy is generally not particularly interesting. It happens everytime two or more people premeditate a crime. Which is to say... it happens _a lot_. It can be significant.... things like corporate capture and political influence. Once it is uncovered, it is 'just' a crime... or corruption. It is generally dry reading (unless you like political and corporate investigative journalism).

Conspiracy theories are different. Just like alternative medicine just gets called medicine when it is shown to work.... a true conspiracy theory tends to be called a cover up or history. Most _conspiracy theories_ are rubbish - they are either extremely difficult to prove; have never been proven or are just bat$hit crazy (chiroptera reference intentional). Very few turn out to be real. Like I say, those that are shown to be true are not often called 'conspiracy theories' due to connotations of the term. This leaves any new conspiracy theories an awful lot of bad company..

Asserting America engineered Covid 19 and used the army to spread it in Wuhan is both improbable and not falsifiable. That sounds like a conspiracy theory to me. Even though it might be _plausible,_ no smoking gun has appeared in three years. How long should we pursue that dead end?




Grayswandir said:


> Ask yourself who, historically speaking, has told more big lies, the people or the governments we allegedly create?



Depends on your country. Speaking from the experience of a fairly well functioning democracy... big corporations I would say....


----------



## Jovidah

Keith Sinclair said:


> Small countries like Vietnam & Afghanistan are the undoing of larger countries like France, USA, & Russia. US supported Afghan rebels against Russia before spending longest war in US history in Afghanistan before pulling out.


What plays a huge role with these 'small wars'is that there's a huge difference in the amount of commitment one is willing to invest. At the end of the day Afghanistan and Vietnam were not an existential threat so there was a limit to the amount of resources and power the bigger states were willing to project into it... whereas for the people living there it's a very different story. This creates a situation where in the long term, all they have to do is 'hold out' and extract a higher price than the opposing side is wiling to pay. 


Grayswandir said:


> That's not true. I literally read and listened to a few American generals being impressed at speed they deployed into Syria when it happened.


Was this at Fox news? They have a handful of 'analysts' that are literally on the Russian payroll (and occasionally show up at RT). Nothing RU did there was overly exciting from a logistics standpoint. What really did stand out about their deployment in Syria was the air force seemed to be capable of using precision munitions in more competent manner than we had seen before, which is one of the main reasons everyone expected more of them in Ukraine. Turns out they never had precision munitions in enough volume, and don't have the capability of providing air support in an actual contested airspace and they're incapable of performing proper SEAD operations.


Grayswandir said:


> Both Russia and China have closed the gap, though I don't really fear the Russians. The Chinese, being a global financial super power, they can and will challenge us in the near future.


Russia hasn't closed any gap. At all. Even before Ukraine we knew they were at best a regional power. They never had the budget for a proper world-class military. Their economy is the size of Italy. Even with the modest 2014 technical sanctions their modernization efforts all went off a cliff. You've seen the results in the last 6 months. They've been getting T-64s out of storage for crying out loud. Their Kiev offensive ground to a halt due to logistical problems. 
Most of the cool toys they developed were always more for the export market, and in a way the 'cool toys' used in Syria were more of a big commercial than anything else.

China is a very different story, they actually DO have the means to fund and equip a proper modern military.


Grayswandir said:


> The Heritage foundation just released a new report on the threats we're most likely to face in the coming months and years, and our state of preparedness. Our military has been rated "weak", and the only branch of our armed forces to receive a strong rating was the Marines.


I call BS on this. The US military is still the strongest force in _any _category. While it's fair to assume that some bad calls were made in the last 2 decades that gave away some of the advantage (especially on the naval side of things) the picture it paints is ridiculously bleak. The US would wipe the floor with whatever is left of the Russian army.



Grayswandir said:


> Here's a brief quote from the report:
> 
> While we're still top dog, who knows how long we'll remain so? We project power via our navy and our aircraft carriers, but it's a brave new world and a few swift boats with good missile technology could sink an entire battle group. It was already done a few times during war games the past two decades.
> 
> Iran Encounter Grimly Echoes 2002 War Game
> 
> Wiped Out in Ten Minutes - An Entire U.S. Carrier Group


The one thing I'll give them credit for is that they're corect in that there are potential weaknesses to the naval strategy / composition. The biggest problem here is just that at the end of the day we're basically just making blind bets. There hasn't really been any major naval surface action since world war 2. There've been a few minor battles, usually involving smaller vessels, but no really big wars. Falklands war is still the biggest point of comparison and that is by now 40 years ago and was still a relatively minor skirmish. 

The main point of concern is that we get a similar situation like in World War 2 where the traditional king of the sea - the battleships - turned out to have become completely obsolete and get absolutely massacred by both land and carrier-based airplanes. You can wargame all you want but we still don't really have a clue how well or poorly a carrier group would stand up to an attack by Chinese ballistic missiles (that would most likely have a nuclear warhead). We don't really know how well submarines will be able to operate in the Chinese web of island bases, we don't really know whether Guam will get flattened on day 1 or whether missile defense is actually able to defend it... etc. etc. 


Grayswandir said:


> I personally don't think I'm overstating the ongoing purposeful weakening of our armed forces at all. We grow weaker year by year, and it's not all that surprising. Wokeness isn't just destroying our culture, it's destroying our military as well, from the very top to the bottom.


There hasn't been any weakening at all, neither purposeful nor accidental. What we have seen is reprioritization from army (and counterinsurgency / WoT efforts) to reinvesting in navy and air force, in the understanding that any war against China would most likely be more of a long range navy & air force affair.
The idea that 'woke' concepts are somehow (deliberately) erroding the military is a pretty big misunderstanding of what actually makes an effective modern military.


Grayswandir said:


> As for doctrinal changes, it had nothing to do with the Chinese. At the time it was how the think tanks and our officer core were seeing the global landscape change in regards to warfare. Larger encounters were considered, but the doctrine was more focused on developing better quick reaction forces, not to fight a prolonged engagement or an all out war, but to deal with terrorists and other non-conventional forces.


I should elaborate a bit ; there were some moves towards lighter and leaner already in the 90s as the role for conventional militaries shifted away from 'defending against Russians' to more peacekeeping, stabilization operations etc, but it still has very much to do with China. All the investments in the last 15 years SCREAM 'we're preparing for a war with China'. It's not like the threat of China suddenly popped up on the radar under Trump; people were well aware of the rising China problem 20 years ago. Defense spending already started transitioning under Obama, if not under Bush.
You simply tailor your force to what you most expect to do. Right now that is fighting China. The only thing the Russians will be fighting after Ukraine is inflation, poverty and economical problems from killing off their own energy market.

A war with China by default results in a focus on lighter / leaner / self sustaining forces since it's expected to be more similar-ish to the Pacific war in WW2 than to the grand armored battles on the European plains that were expected to be fought against the Russians during the cold war.


Grayswandir said:


> Right now, we're weak, but we still have better weapons of war then the Chinese and Russians (in most areas but not all areas). The problem becomes smart weapons, unmanned vehicles, drones, you name it, they change the battlefield drastically. A lot of these weapons are very cheap to produce, and they're being tested in Ukraine as we speak. At one time we lead the pack, but we've fallen behind, at least publicly.


The idea that the US is falling behind is still vastly overstated. The US is still by far the strongest military power and vastly outspends anyone below it. 
You are correct that you see a certain 'democratization' and trickling down of what was once higher tech stuff to more affordable price levels and wider availability, and China is certainly narrowing the gap. The biggest concern with China though is not how they are closing that gap, but that they are currently vastly outbuilding the US navy. Another problem is that in a conflict with China the deck is to some extent stacked in their favor since all of Taiwan is within range of their land-based assets and you'd essentially be fighting the whole conflict in their backyard. You could counter that by simply containing them from a distance (which is why you see the US building this ring of allies), but there's no reason China couldn't do something similar to Taiwan and just blockade them into submission. And given how reliant some major players in the US economy currently are on TSMC, even just a minor scuffle could already do massive damage to the US economy.

Yes, there are new threats and new problems, but as always those will also breed new solutions. It's true that due to the WoT you saw a deprioritization of investment focused on near-peer engagements that made it easier for a country like China to catch up. This is IMO most poignant in the navy where significant amounts of investment went to completely failed platforms like the LCS that bring virtually nothing to the table in a proper war. But that takes nothing away from the US military still being by far the best-trained best-equipped force on the planet.


----------



## Jovidah

Keith Sinclair said:


> Mice are used a lot in research reproductive rate is high. They are mammals.
> 
> Anti ship missiles have gotten very effective
> since the Falklands war where a ship was destroyed with a missile. Chinese have invested heavy in missiles. They know where all the sites are to hit on Taiwan. Just like Putin is doing now taking out infrastructure with missiles with winter coming on.
> 
> May be naive but think China is smarter than Putin. They don't want to destroy Taiwan it's not in their interest to do so. Also they are watching eight months of Ukraine holding on with most of world against Putin's butchery.
> 
> The USA has best Submarines. The Virginia class SSN attack Submarine is the most advanced period that is in service. In research phase are plans for next generation attack Sub. SSN(X).
> 
> The Columbia class will replace the aging Ohio class SSBN with nuclear warhead missiles. Stealth with modern technology pulse drive. Advanced computers. Not cheap & only two shipyards in US can build them.
> 
> With COVID-19 virus, climate change, rising sea levels, fresh water shortages, more refugees from intolerable conditions, leaders that resemble the 1930's .


We haven't really seen a proper combat test of antiship missiles since the Falklands. Cruiser Moskva doesn't really count since half its systems weren't working. 

Ukraine definitly was a wake-up call for China but it remains to be seen what conclusions they'll draw from it. Taiwan definitly poses as much of a challenge to China as it does to the US. While the big prize of their semiconductor industry is appealing, this is very unlikely to survive the conquest of Taiwan intact in anything but a peaceful takeover. You can count on them playing the long game, they rarely if ever go for quick risky decisions.

I do agree that lately I've had a lot of 1930s deja vu lately. As I already said to a friend in spring; if world war 3 erups within the next couple of years, 2022-02-24 will be the day historians consider its starting date...


----------



## Grayswandir

MarcelNL said:


> This once more clearly shows that you need to read the source material and try to understand it BEFORE making any assessment.


It's the Daily Fail, so there's always a 50/50 shot they're either sensationalizing something or outright lying. In reality though, I can guarantee you dangerous research is going on at this very minute, and the biosafety protocols do fail. You're also trusting government agencies for oversight, something their famous for not being very good at. So the original point still stands. The had to shut down the bio-research facilities at Fort Meade because they were finding dangerous viruses had somehow bypassed their filtration and containment protocols.

Work like this is going on all over the world. Labeling something "science"doesn't really lend it any more weight then anything else. It doesn't equate to magic or mean the people doing the work are competent and responsible. The fact is accidents happen all the time, and even when we try to take the human element outy of the equation, things still go wrong.


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## Keith Sinclair

Agree that Vietnam & Afghanistan we were on their home ground. Perhaps the US could learn that after trillions of dollars and years, decades on the ground that doesn't pay to change the government in situations that are complex. It is not practical or possible to police the planet. 

Chinese government officials went to Singapore to study how a small city state with no natural resources could be so successful. They are willing to study models that work.


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## MarcelNL

Grayswandir said:


> It's the Daily Fail, so there's always a 50/50 shot they're either sensationalizing something or outright lying. In reality though, I can guarantee you dangerous research is going on at this very minute, and the biosafety protocols do fail. You're also trusting government agencies for oversight, something their famous for not being very good at. So the original point still stands. The had to shut down the bio-research facilities at Fort Meade because they were finding dangerous viruses had somehow bypassed their filtration and containment protocols.
> 
> Work like this is going on all over the world. Labeling something "science"doesn't really lend it any more weight then anything else. It doesn't equate to magic or mean the people doing the work are competent and responsible. The fact is accidents happen all the time, and even when we try to take the human element outy of the equation, things still go wrong.


not sure why you think I trust gov't agencies for oversight, I don't...I do trust the folks working in that scene to be trying to doing the right thing in the best way they can, accidents happen, that is where the failsafes (there are several layers) should come into play.
**** happens, do we stop driving a car because a gazillion people get killed or maimed in traffic, or the pollution it causes?


----------



## Grayswandir

Keith Sinclair said:


> Mice are used a lot in research reproductive rate is high. They are mammals.
> 
> Anti ship missiles have gotten very effective
> since the Falklands war where a ship was destroyed with a missile. Chinese have invested heavy in missiles. They know where all the sites are to hit on Taiwan. Just like Putin is doing now taking out infrastructure with missiles with winter coming on.
> 
> May be naive but think China is smarter than Putin. They don't want to destroy Taiwan it's not in their interest to do so. Also they are watching eight months of Ukraine holding on with most of world against Putin's butchery.
> 
> The USA has best Submarines. The Virginia class SSN attack Submarine is the most advanced period that is in service. In research phase are plans for next generation attack Sub. SSN(X).
> 
> The Columbia class will replace the aging Ohio class SSBN with nuclear warhead missiles. Stealth with modern technology pulse drive. Advanced computers. Not cheap & only two shipyards in US can build them.
> 
> With COVID-19 virus, climate change, rising sea levels, fresh water shortages, more refugees from intolerable conditions, leaders that resemble the 1930's .


I know we have the best navy in the world, but it does worry me that our politicians are not giving our armed forces what they need to remain the best in the world. Pulse drive? Reminds me of The Hunt For Red October!  If the Chinese overtake us financially, they will eventually overtake us militarily, at least theoretically. I think they just built their first aircraft carrier, based on Chinese engineering. I know they bough an older Soviet era carrier beforehand, probably to help them work out their own design.


----------



## Grayswandir

Jovidah said:


> What plays a huge role with these 'small wars'is that there's a huge difference in the amount of commitment one is willing to invest. At the end of the day Afghanistan and Vietnam were not an existential threat so there was a limit to the amount of resources and power the bigger states were willing to project into it... whereas for the people living there it's a very different story. This creates a situation where in the long term, all they have to do is 'hold out' and extract a higher price than the opposing side is wiling to pay.
> 
> Was this at Fox news? They have a handful of 'analysts' that are literally on the Russian payroll (and occasionally show up at RT). Nothing RU did there was overly exciting from a logistics standpoint. What really did stand out about their deployment in Syria was the air force seemed to be capable of using precision munitions in more competent manner than we had seen before, which is one of the main reasons everyone expected more of them in Ukraine. Turns out they never had precision munitions in enough volume, and don't have the capability of providing air support in an actual contested airspace and they're incapable of performing proper SEAD operations.
> 
> Russia hasn't closed any gap. At all. Even before Ukraine we knew they were at best a regional power. They never had the budget for a proper world-class military. Their economy is the size of Italy. Even with the modest 2014 technical sanctions their modernization efforts all went off a cliff. You've seen the results in the last 6 months. They've been getting T-64s out of storage for crying out loud. Their Kiev offensive ground to a halt due to logistical problems.
> Most of the cool toys they developed were always more for the export market, and in a way the 'cool toys' used in Syria were more of a big commercial than anything else.
> 
> China is a very different story, they actually DO have the means to fund and equip a proper modern military.
> 
> I call BS on this. The US military is still the strongest force in _any _category. While it's fair to assume that some bad calls were made in the last 2 decades that gave away some of the advantage (especially on the naval side of things) the picture it paints is ridiculously bleak. The US would wipe the floor with whatever is left of the Russian army.
> 
> 
> The one thing I'll give them credit for is that they're corect in that there are potential weaknesses to the naval strategy / composition. The biggest problem here is just that at the end of the day we're basically just making blind bets. There hasn't really been any major naval surface action since world war 2. There've been a few minor battles, usually involving smaller vessels, but no really big wars. Falklands war is still the biggest point of comparison and that is by now 40 years ago and was still a relatively minor skirmish.
> 
> The main point of concern is that we get a similar situation like in World War 2 where the traditional king of the sea - the battleships - turned out to have become completely obsolete and get absolutely massacred by both land and carrier-based airplanes. You can wargame all you want but we still don't really have a clue how well or poorly a carrier group would stand up to an attack by Chinese ballistic missiles (that would most likely have a nuclear warhead). We don't really know how well submarines will be able to operate in the Chinese web of island bases, we don't really know whether Guam will get flattened on day 1 or whether missile defense is actually able to defend it... etc. etc.
> 
> There hasn't been any weakening at all, neither purposeful nor accidental. What we have seen is reprioritization from army (and counterinsurgency / WoT efforts) to reinvesting in navy and air force, in the understanding that any war against China would most likely be more of a long range navy & air force affair.
> The idea that 'woke' concepts are somehow (deliberately) erroding the military is a pretty big misunderstanding of what actually makes an effective modern military.
> 
> I should elaborate a bit ; there were some moves towards lighter and leaner already in the 90s as the role for conventional militaries shifted away from 'defending against Russians' to more peacekeeping, stabilization operations etc, but it still has very much to do with China. All the investments in the last 15 years SCREAM 'we're preparing for a war with China'. It's not like the threat of China suddenly popped up on the radar under Trump; people were well aware of the rising China problem 20 years ago. Defense spending already started transitioning under Obama, if not under Bush.
> You simply tailor your force to what you most expect to do. Right now that is fighting China. The only thing the Russians will be fighting after Ukraine is inflation, poverty and economical problems from killing off their own energy market.
> 
> A war with China by default results in a focus on lighter / leaner / self sustaining forces since it's expected to be more similar-ish to the Pacific war in WW2 than to the grand armored battles on the European plains that were expected to be fought against the Russians during the cold war.
> 
> The idea that the US is falling behind is still vastly overstated. The US is still by far the strongest military power and vastly outspends anyone below it.
> You are correct that you see a certain 'democratization' and trickling down of what was once higher tech stuff to more affordable price levels and wider availability, and China is certainly narrowing the gap. The biggest concern with China though is not how they are closing that gap, but that they are currently vastly outbuilding the US navy. Another problem is that in a conflict with China the deck is to some extent stacked in their favor since all of Taiwan is within range of their land-based assets and you'd essentially be fighting the whole conflict in their backyard. You could counter that by simply containing them from a distance (which is why you see the US building this ring of allies), but there's no reason China couldn't do something similar to Taiwan and just blockade them into submission. And given how reliant some major players in the US economy currently are on TSMC, even just a minor scuffle could already do massive damage to the US economy.
> 
> Yes, there are new threats and new problems, but as always those will also breed new solutions. It's true that due to the WoT you saw a deprioritization of investment focused on near-peer engagements that made it easier for a country like China to catch up. This is IMO most poignant in the navy where significant amounts of investment went to completely failed platforms like the LCS that bring virtually nothing to the table in a proper war. But that takes nothing away from the US military still being by far the best-trained best-equipped force on the planet.


Man, it was so long ago, but no, I think it may have been CNN. Regardless, there isn't really a mainstream source I respect anymore, or much did in the first place. Another article just came out regarding the experiments they were doing at Boston University, but it's hard to trust journalists that are geared towards sensationalism rather then real, unbiased reporting. It seems like Russia isn't much more then the painted pig the Soviet Union was in it's declining years. As for naval power, it's not necessarily the number of ships, but the quality of the ships and the way our sailors are trained. Contrary to popular belief, when the Germans invaded France in WWII, the French had better tanks, but the Germans were much better trained and the combined forces doctrine overwhelmed the French rather quickly. It's not what you got but how you use it, within reason anyway.

It is overstated, us falling behind, but I'm glad we've got organizations out there who are trying to make sure we stay on top. Regardless, if China invaded Taiwan, it would not be good. What worries me is the quality of our soldiers. The fact is, we're getting weaker even though we can always find some good examples to make us feel good about ourselves. Right now we're in the middle of a cultural war, and we're losing.


----------



## ian

Grayswandir said:


> Regardless, there isn't really a mainstream source I respect anymore, or much did in the first place.



Are there non-mainstream sources you trust?


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## Keith Sinclair

South Korea is one of biggest shipbuilders. They built Russia's Belgorod Submarine delivered 2022.


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## Grayswandir

ian said:


> Are there non-mainstream sources you trust?


I really just try to read as much as I can on a subject (if I'm interested enough) and then sort out the truth as best I can for myself. I feel like real journalism, at least as it concerns the people holding all of the cards (a few people/corporations own over 90%+of the "news" we consume), has taken a back seat to them telling us what we should believe, not because it's the truth, but because they want a malleable and complaint population, one that's easy to control. It doesn't take much to mind control an entire population, just a lot of money and repetition.

They use peer pressure/ridicule to shut up dissenting voices. It's gotten worse, now people are being thrown into jail over what they believe, or sued into oblivion. Freedom of speech comes with consequences, and I'm not talking about someone getting fired for holding beliefs that most of us would find repugnant. If we fail to protect and uphold what was passed down to us via the brilliance of our forefathers and the blood spilled by our ancestors, we're destined to return to feudalism.


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## MarcelNL

Grayswandir said:


> I really just try to read as much as I can on a subject (if I'm interested enough) and then sort out the truth as best I can for myself. I feel like real journalism, at least as it concerns the people holding all of the cards (a few people/corporations own over 90%+of the "news" we consume), has taken a back seat to them telling us what we should believe, not because it's the truth, but because they want a malleable and complaint population, one that's easy to control. It doesn't take much to mind control an entire population, just a lot of money and repetition.
> 
> They use peer pressure/ridicule to shut up dissenting voices. It's gotten worse, now people are being thrown into jail over what they believe, or sued into oblivion. Freedom of speech comes with consequences, and I'm not talking about someone getting fired for holding beliefs that most of us would find repugnant. If we fail to protect and uphold what was passed down to us via the brilliance of our forefathers and the blood spilled by our ancestors, we're destined to return to feudalism.


can you define 'they' in the second paragraph? IMHO the large news corporations that exist have NO influence on who gets arrested and for what, sue-ing is the national hobby in the US.
Protect and uphold what exactly?


----------



## Keith Sinclair

It's extremism on both sides in the US now. 

_When Trump was in office the Democrats tried to impeach him non stop while President. Some of it had no merit or proof at all. Like collusion with Russians to win the election. Some of same people trying again to bury him for his behavior when followers attacked the Capitol actually believing election had been stolen. 

The Mainstream media is biased both liberal & conservative. It's agenda news to be taken with a grain of salt. _

I watch NHK Japanese world news report. We get Japanese channel here. 

Tulsi Gabbard surfer, military veteran, former Congress woman is from Hawaii. Of White Samoan decent. First Hindu to be elected. Ran for President got less than 1% of vote. She just quit Democrats & is campaigning for a couple Republicans. Go figure.Her biggest is futility of US wars to change governments. She also has said some inflammatory remarks. Politics in the USA.


----------



## ian

Grayswandir said:


> I feel like real journalism, at least as it concerns the people holding all of the cards (a few people/corporations own over 90%+of the "news" we consume), has taken a back seat to them telling us what we should believe, not because it's the truth, but because they want a malleable and complaint population, one that's easy to control.



Curious! I don’t share that view when it comes to most mainstream news sources. Opinion columns are opinions, but most of the news just seems like news to me. Do you have any concrete examples of this?


----------



## Grayswandir

MarcelNL said:


> can you define 'they' in the second paragraph? IMHO the large news corporations that exist have NO influence on who gets arrested and for what, sue-ing is the national hobby in the US.
> Protect and uphold what exactly?


I'm going to make an assumption, you probably think I'm a conspiracy theorist, or at best, you feel my views are way out there. I don't really want to get into a debate over this. I've been through many debates and conversations of this type over the years and they're not very productive. They generally degenerate into something ugly, or at best, the person who holds alternative views is treated like leper or a weirdo afterwards.

I'm not an activist, conspiracy theorist, "patriot type", etc, etc. I just use history as a guide, it helps me to know what to expect in the future. There's really no label I'd accept, but if I described myself, I'd say I hold both conservative and liberal views, it all depends on the subject. It's easy to stop listening to someone if we default to mainstream programming.

The problem I find with people today is that they're very extreme, especially those who consider themselves liberal. Live and let live used to be a thing, it doesn't really exist anymore, it's very rare. You can find extremists on either side of the left/right political paradigm, but now the extremists have gone mainstream. You might feel the same way, just towards the other side.

A good example might be hate legislation. We have adequate laws to deal with people committing crimes. Here's an example:



> Hate crime laws create additional or enhanced penalties for crimes committed with bias toward particular characteristics, such as race, religion, disability, sexual orientation, or gender identity.



A crime is a crime for the most part, and the judge used to be the one to decide the specifics of a case, but now we're politicizing everything. We're creating laws for very specific groups of people, when we're all supposed to be equal under the law. Politicians have created a protected/special class of citizen, and all it really does is cause more division, anger, and hatred, something they're supposedly fighting against. We don't need more division, and we'd don't need laws that create a protected or special class of citizen.



> IMHO the large news corporations that exist have NO influence on who gets arrested and for what, sue-ing is the national hobby in the US



It depends on how you look at things I guess:

Just 37 years ago, there were 50 companies in charge of most American media. Now, 90% of the media in the United States is controlled by just six corporations: *AT&T, CBS, Comcast, Disney, Newscorp and Viacom*.

Our news sources are quickly being whittled away, and not just in America:




Your browser is not able to display this video.







> Protect and uphold what exactly?



The original principles on which this nation (The United States of America) was founded on. We've wondered very far from the path that our ancestors created for us.

On exiting the Constitutional Convention in 1787, Benjamin Franklin was asked what sort of government the delegates had created. His answer was: "*A Republic, if you can keep it." - Interesting Read on Whether or not Franklin actually said this*


----------



## Jovidah

Grayswandir said:


> I know we have the best navy in the world, but it does worry me that our politicians are not giving our armed forces what they need to remain the best in the world. Pulse drive? Reminds me of The Hunt For Red October!  If the Chinese overtake us financially, they will eventually overtake us militarily, at least theoretically. I think they just built their first aircraft carrier, based on Chinese engineering. I know they bough an older Soviet era carrier beforehand, probably to help them work out their own design.


Political control over the military is always a bit of a tricky dance that should be a balancing act... Honestly what I find most remarkable in the US is how politics can force the Pentagon to stick to systems they want to get rid of even when it makes no military sense to keep them *cough* A-10 *cough*.
Although admittedly Pentagon will also sometimes pull this song and dance to just get more money out of the politicians.
It's hard to say how the military balance will stack up in the future. Money isn't everything, but at the same time I'm wary of making predictions based on 'who has the most tradition'; that proved a quite costly expectation versus the Japanese before WW2.


Grayswandir said:


> Man, it was so long ago, but no, I think it may have been CNN. Regardless, there isn't really a mainstream source I respect anymore, or much did in the first place. Another article just came out regarding the experiments they were doing at Boston University, but it's hard to trust journalists that are geared towards sensationalism rather then real, unbiased reporting. It seems like Russia isn't much more then the painted pig the Soviet Union was in it's declining years. As for naval power, it's not necessarily the number of ships, but the quality of the ships and the way our sailors are trained. Contrary to popular belief, when the Germans invaded France in WWII, the French had better tanks, but the Germans were much better trained and the combined forces doctrine overwhelmed the French rather quickly. It's not what you got but how you use it, within reason anyway.
> 
> It is overstated, us falling behind, but I'm glad we've got organizations out there who are trying to make sure we stay on top. Regardless, if China invaded Taiwan, it would not be good. What worries me is the quality of our soldiers. The fact is, we're getting weaker even though we can always find some good examples to make us feel good about ourselves. Right now we're in the middle of a cultural war, and we're losing.


Russia is in a pickle for the foreseeable future. In the short term they'll be forced to rebuild their military, in the long term the defossilization of the economy, especially in Europe, means their bottom line is getting hit. The only bright spot in their horizon is that they actually stand to benefit from global warming (thaws out the norhern routes, makes parts of their country more habitable / arable).

The problem with journalism isn't so much sensationalism, but it's that a lot gets dumbed down and most journalists are at best generalists. So for example most war reporting is kinda 'meh' since half the journalists only have a passing knowledge on the subject matter, and even when they know more they still try to cater to people who don't. Likewise you often see the problem that 'experts' start talking outside of their lane. Like IR theorists goign into elaborate lectures about Ukraine while clearly not having a proper clue about _Ukraine, _or vice versa experts on a geographical who start talking about defense matters. Specifically when talking about the Ukraine situation for example I noticed that there seems to be little overlap between those who actually have a clue about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, those who understand IR and those who understand military matters.
But by the time you have proper specialists who go into actual depth 98% of people stops listening anyway... 

I agree there's a lot more to naval power than just number of ships. At this point I think it's a bit of a guessing game how good the Chinese really are... but due to the lack of major naval engagements for the last 80 years there's too many unknowns regardless.

I agree if China invades Taiwan, no matter the outcome... it will be both a human and economical disaster. Regardless of who wins, the economical fallout will make the fallout of the war in Ukraine look like childs play, and a war between US and China will not be without losses. I don't really see any reason why you'd be worried about the quality of your soldiers; the US military has always been pretty good about putting quality first and trying to get the most out of their people. It functioned well after black people entered service, it functioned well after women entered the service, I don't see why you should get overly concerned about other societal developments.


----------



## MarcelNL

Grayswandir said:


> I'm going to make an assumption, you probably think I'm a conspiracy theorist, or at best, you feel my views are way out there. I don't really want to get into a debate over this. I've been through many debates and conversations of this type over the years and they're not very productive. They generally degenerate into something ugly, or at best, the person who holds alternative views is treated like leper or a weirdo afterwards.
> 
> I'm not an activist, conspiracy theorist, "patriot type", etc, etc. I just use history as a guide, it helps me to know what to expect in the future. There's really no label I'd accept, but if I described myself, I'd say I hold both conservative and liberal views, it all depends on the subject. It's easy to stop listening to someone if we default to mainstream programming.
> 
> The problem I find with people today is that they're very extreme, especially those who consider themselves liberal. Live and let live used to be a thing, it doesn't really exist anymore, it's very rare. You can find extremists on either side of the left/right political paradigm, but now the extremists have gone mainstream. You might feel the same way, just towards the other side.
> 
> A good example might be hate legislation. We have adequate laws to deal with people committing crimes. Here's an example:
> 
> 
> 
> A crime is a crime for the most part, and the judge used to be the one to decide the specifics of a case, but now we're politicizing everything. We're creating laws for very specific groups of people, when we're all supposed to be equal under the law. Politicians have created a protected/special class of citizen, and all it really does is cause more division, anger, and hatred, something they're supposedly fighting against. We don't need more division, and we'd don't need laws that create a protected or special class of citizen.
> 
> 
> 
> It depends on how you look at things I guess:
> 
> Just 37 years ago, there were 50 companies in charge of most American media. Now, 90% of the media in the United States is controlled by just six corporations: *AT&T, CBS, Comcast, Disney, Newscorp and Viacom*.
> 
> Our news sources are quickly being whittled away, and not just in America:
> View attachment 204357
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The original principles on which this nation (The United States of America) was founded on. We've wondered very far from the path that our ancestors created for us.
> 
> On exiting the Constitutional Convention in 1787, Benjamin Franklin was asked what sort of government the delegates had created. His answer was: "*A Republic, if you can keep it." - Interesting Read on Whether or not Franklin actually said this*


I'm just trying to understand, not rying to judge or label so IMO no need for a debate. Please keep in mind that there is more world out there than just the US, in many countries there is independent journalism. 

Polarization is an issue in many places, it sure seems to be running high in US politics and I am amazed how political law in the US has become.


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## Keith Sinclair

I like military history mostly a guy thing. 
But to jump to military action often fails in long run. Both USA & Russia have experienced this since WW2. USA if you think about it has been in more conflicts since WW2 than any other country. It has built a over used phrase : Military Industrial complex. Don't care for the drum beating against China. They produce much of what is purchased in other countries. I know Chinese people even in my extended family.
The reasons that they have become industrial power are many. Biggest population & cheaper labor. Also they love to start their own business large or small. Not exactly communism. Of coarse communism has produced some of worst dictators in history from the start. Ukraine was a country when the Reds absorbed it after winning battles against whites from beginnings of communist state. Like I said Kiev was ancient city before Moscow & the other Russian cities existed. Russia a cold place expanded out of Kiev & what became Russia. Russians are fighting relatives in Ukraine. It is the fake news by Putin calling it a war against Nazi's in Ukraine. Dictators usually control media. Russian soldiers didn't even know they were going to war. US media is split because of Conservative & Liberals. Just like some other democracies. Like Grayswandir have conservative & liberal stances on different issues.


----------



## Jovidah

Keith Sinclair said:


> I like military history mostly a guy thing.
> But to jump to military action often fails in long run. Both USA & Russia have experienced this since WW2. USA if you think about it has been in more conflicts since WW2 than any other country.


This is a popular thing people like to throw at the US when making anti-American statements but it's worth bearing in mind that a LOT of these operations were under the banner of the UN and were either stabilization operations, peace keeping and / or peace enforcement. It's a ludicrous distortion of history to somehow try to paint the US as the agressor when countering the invasion of North Korea into South Korea, rolling back the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait in 1991, trying to end starvation in a completely collapsed Somalia, stopping the genocide of the Bosnians in Yugoslavia, preventing genocide of Albanians in Kosovo, etc. Not saying every war the US was involved in was just(ified), but quite a lot of them were, and it's strange how easily people try to rewrite the history on those. Similarly the USSR was involved in one way or another in just about any war the US was.

The reason military action sometimes fails is because either the military is given tasks it is not suited to, or it is simply not given enough means to achieve them (usually because it's not high enough of a priority). Both are more political failings than military ones.



Keith Sinclair said:


> It has built a over used phrase : Military Industrial complex. Don't care for the drum beating against China. They produce much of what is purchased in other countries. I know Chinese people even in my extended family.


The problem is not Chinese people, the problem is the Chinese government. The same government that's resonsible for this whole COVID mess we've been dealing with for the last couple of years.
Up front, I have to admit China was never an area of expertise for me so I'm hesitant to make in depth predictions the way I'll happily do when it comes to Russia, but what I see from China frankly concerns me. You have a government that clearly has 0 concern for the lives of even it's own citizens, clearly has no regard for human rights, has openly voiced it's desire to reclaim Taiwan by force is necessary, and that is starting the biggest exponential defense expansion we've seen in a century. China is gearing up to start a war, plain and simple. At this point I'm worried that it's more a matter of 'when' than 'if'. More troubling is that there's also plenty of factors that incentivize them to do it sooner rather than later.



Keith Sinclair said:


> The reasons that they have become industrial power are many. Biggest population & cheaper labor. Also they love to start their own business large or small. Not exactly communism. Of coarse communism has produced some of worst dictators in history from the start.


Today's China is marked more by its totaliarism than it's communism; at this point it is communist mostly in name only. Though you're right that some communist leaders were some of the worst dictators, it doesn't have a monopoly on it. As long as there isn't a strong form of government with checks & balances strongmen always seem to find a way to the top... they'll just brand themselves into whatever makes sense.


----------



## Michi

Jovidah said:


> The problem is not Chinese people, the problem is the Chinese government. The same government that's resonsible for this whole COVID mess we've been dealing with for the last couple of years.


I'm not particularly sympathetic to the Chinese government. But this looks like a blanket statement to me that isn't supported by evidence. The virus may or may not have come from a Chinese lab. It may or may not have jumped from animals to humans in the Wuhan market. By the looks of things, we will never know for sure.


----------



## Jovidah

Michi said:


> I'm not particularly sympathetic to the Chinese government. But this looks like a blanket statement to me that isn't supported by evidence. The virus may or may not have come from a Chinese lab. It may or may not have jumped from animals to humans in the Wuhan market. By the looks of things, we will never know for sure.


I wasn't talking about the origins here but rather the government's response to the crisis. The first few crucial months were spent mostly trying to silence those who spoke up and trying to suppress as much information as they could while trying to act as if nothing was happening. That's not conducive to a succesful containment of an outbreak or prevention of a pandemic (regardless of its origins).


----------



## Michi

Jovidah said:


> I wasn't talking about the origins here but rather the government's response to the crisis. The first few crucial months were spent mostly trying to silence those who spoke up and trying to suppress as much information as they could while trying to act as if nothing was happening. That's not conducive to a succesful containment of an outbreak or prevention of a pandemic (regardless of its origins).


Ah, yes. Denial of reality never works.


----------



## Grayswandir

Jovidah said:


> Political control over the military is always a bit of a tricky dance that should be a balancing act... Honestly what I find most remarkable in the US is how politics can force the Pentagon to stick to systems they want to get rid of even when it makes no military sense to keep them *cough* A-10 *cough*.
> Although admittedly Pentagon will also sometimes pull this song and dance to just get more money out of the politicians.
> It's hard to say how the military balance will stack up in the future. Money isn't everything, but at the same time I'm wary of making predictions based on 'who has the most tradition'; that proved a quite costly expectation versus the Japanese before WW2.
> 
> Russia is in a pickle for the foreseeable future. In the short term they'll be forced to rebuild their military, in the long term the defossilization of the economy, especially in Europe, means their bottom line is getting hit. The only bright spot in their horizon is that they actually stand to benefit from global warming (thaws out the norhern routes, makes parts of their country more habitable / arable).
> 
> The problem with journalism isn't so much sensationalism, but it's that a lot gets dumbed down and most journalists are at best generalists. So for example most war reporting is kinda 'meh' since half the journalists only have a passing knowledge on the subject matter, and even when they know more they still try to cater to people who don't. Likewise you often see the problem that 'experts' start talking outside of their lane. Like IR theorists goign into elaborate lectures about Ukraine while clearly not having a proper clue about _Ukraine, _or vice versa experts on a geographical who start talking about defense matters. Specifically when talking about the Ukraine situation for example I noticed that there seems to be little overlap between those who actually have a clue about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, those who understand IR and those who understand military matters.
> But by the time you have proper specialists who go into actual depth 98% of people stops listening anyway...
> 
> I agree there's a lot more to naval power than just number of ships. At this point I think it's a bit of a guessing game how good the Chinese really are... but due to the lack of major naval engagements for the last 80 years there's too many unknowns regardless.
> 
> I agree if China invades Taiwan, no matter the outcome... it will be both a human and economical disaster. Regardless of who wins, the economical fallout will make the fallout of the war in Ukraine look like childs play, and a war between US and China will not be without losses. I don't really see any reason why you'd be worried about the quality of your soldiers; the US military has always been pretty good about putting quality first and trying to get the most out of their people. It functioned well after black people entered service, it functioned well after women entered the service, I don't see why you should get overly concerned about other societal developments.


I'm a big fan of the A-10 and it makes sense keeping them combat ready until we design a new, superior ground support airplane. The F-35 is a joke, it can only loiter over the battle field for around an hour (the A-10 can spend 8 hours on troop support), and it cannot fly low and slow like the Warthog can. Our troops love the A-10. I have heard the f-15 can do a similar job, but it's mission is very different. Both are very good airplanes.

I have a squadron of A-10 Warthogs (A-10 Thunderbolt II) not far from me. They fly over my house all the time. I bump into the pilots every so often when I'm out and about and those guys are great. They love their ugly Warthogs!

I don't mind "experts" talking outside of their own profession. It used to be we had competent people who were knowledgeable and trustworthy across many fields of study. This sudden idea that everyone should stay in their lane is a bit ridiculous to me. If we're hearing the correct facts, any reasonably intelligent person can ask the right questions and draw intelligent conclusions. I do enjoy listening to people who specialize in a specific field and are true experts, but they seem few and far between to me, at least in regards to the ones the mainstream media gives a couple of minutes to, usually to support their biased politics. The American people deserve more then a couple of minutes of quality discussion, but we should all be doing our own due diligence as it concerns the state of our nation. 

I respect the Chinese, they have a very ancient culture and the world owes them a lot, historically speaking. I suspect they would be a tough opponent, but we'd win in the long run. We've got a special talent for adjusting our tactics and training during conflicts, so even when we appear weak, we're actually strong. The Chinese are mulling over whether or not we're willing to sacrifice bodies. If they sank one of our carriers, some of their military leaders believe we aren't willing to take on losses, and they think we'll go home and lick our wounds in shame. I think they've totally underestimated our courage and our resolve. We might not be looking to fight a war over Taiwan at the moment, but if they lashed out at us and sank one of our carriers, the fight would be on.

I think the current wokeness politics being played inside the pentagon is a prime example of where our military is heading. We've got a four star Tranny (now an Admiral) over our troops. This is not an isolated incident. I may not really care what people do behind closed doors, it's not my business, but when our country is appointing transvestites to high office in our military, that's a huge problem. It not only hurts moral, but it emboldens our enemies. Standards have dropped across all of our armed forces. We've become much weaker in the past two decades.


----------



## Jovidah

Grayswandir said:


> I'm a big fan of the A-10 and it makes sense keeping them combat ready until we design a new, superior ground support airplane. The F-35 is a joke, it can only loiter over the battle field for around an hour (the A-10 can spend 8 hours on troop support), and it cannot fly low and slow like the Warthog can. Our troops love the A-10. I have heard the f-15 can do a similar job, but it's mission is very different. Both are very good airplanes.
> 
> I have a squadron of A-10 Warthogs (A-10 Thunderbolt II) not far from me. They fly over my house all the time. I bump into the pilots every so often when I'm out and about and those guys are great. They love their ugly Warthogs!


Oh sure the A-10 is great... when you're plastering low-tech insurgents who have no proper anti-air. The problem is that in a war against a proper near-peer opponent you cannot use it that way; it'll just get shot down when you try to use it in low-level attacks with its cannon. Which is exactly what happened in the first Gulf War, after which they only used it in high-altitude attacks with missiles, just like any other jet. It's just not survivable in a modern combat environment, and you're better off just having more multiroles. The AC-130 has a similar problem; these kind of planes are great for certain use niche uses like counter-insurgency but in a 'proper' war they quickly run into problems.
You cannot expect to just loiter above the battlefield casually attacking ground targets in impunity when fighting a war against China or Russia, regardless of what your endurance is.



Grayswandir said:


> I don't mind "experts" talking outside of their own profession. It used to be we had competent people who were knowledgeable and trustworthy across many fields of study. This sudden idea that everyone should stay in their lane is a bit ridiculous to me. If we're hearing the correct facts, any reasonably intelligent person can ask the right questions and draw intelligent conclusions. I do enjoy listening to people who specialize in a specific field and are true experts, but they seem few and far between to me, at least in regards to the ones the mainstream media gives a couple of minutes to, usually to support their biased politics. The American people deserve more then a couple of minutes of quality discussion, but we should all be doing our own due diligence as it concerns the state of our nation.


I honestly don't spend that much time watching American media - and especially not on domestic issues - , but the problem is that in this 'scramble for relevance' sometimes bad ideas are given a far larger audience than deserved. The best example that comes to mind is how Mearsheimer's views on Ukraine have gotten already gotten 25 million views on YT... while being completely misguided and misinformed. Similarly, I've seen plenty of media takes on the current war in Ukraine that were either too simplistic, oversimplified or simply paying too much attention to less relevant things (journalists putting all attention on 'the battle for kiev' for a full month when the city was basically saved after a week, while ignoring everythign else for example).
I don't think there's necessarily always any harm intended, and I get how narratives and stories have to be simplified because most people cannot spend 4 hours a day keeping up with the news even if they wanted to, but it gets annoying if you're a bit deeper into the subject matter yourself. It's probably similar to how us knife geeks get annoyed by half the YT videos on knives and sharpening.
Allowing reasonably people to make up their own mind based on the facts requires them to actually get all of the facts; that's not always possible.


Grayswandir said:


> I respect the Chinese, they have a very ancient culture and the world owes them a lot, historically speaking. I suspect they would be a tough opponent, but we'd win in the long run. We've got a special talent for adjusting our tactics and training during conflicts, so even when we appear weak, we're actually strong. The Chinese are mulling over whether or not we're willing to sacrifice bodies. If they sank one of our carriers, some of their military leaders believe we aren't willing to take on losses, and they think we'll go home and lick our wounds in shame. I think they've totally underestimated our courage and our resolve. We might not be looking to fight a war over Taiwan at the moment, but if they lashed out at us and sank one of our carriers, the fight would be on.


Honestly I don't consider myself knowledgable enough on Chinese interal politics to really give an accurate prediction of what their calculus is. But regardless of the outcome the cost would be high enough that it would be disastruous even with a US victory.


Grayswandir said:


> I think the current wokeness politics being played inside the pentagon is a prime example of where are military is heading. We've got a four star Tranny (now an Admiral) over our troops. This is not an isolated incident. I may not really care what people do behind closed doors, it's not my business, but when our country is appointing transvestites to high office in our military, that's a huge problem. It not only hurts moral, but it emboldens our enemies. Standards have dropped across all of our armed forces. We've become much weaker in the past two decades.


I think this is really being overplayed in certain media circles. In the end the military is still a strong meritocracy... and most of modern war does not rely on 'maximum testosterone'. In a war with China more people will be holding a computer mouse than a gun. I'm not getting the impression that standards are being sacrificed in any meaningful manner; military services are always quite adamant about that.
What emboldens the enemies, be it Russia or China is not when they think they can start a war while facing a slightly weaker US military (whether this is an imagined weakening or not), what emboldens then is when they think they can start a war without fighting the US at all.
Russia didn't invade Ukraine because he thought he could win against NATO, he went in because he thought he could take over Ukraine without fighting NATO at all.


----------



## Bill13

His book Malignant is a good read about what has gone wrong with cancer trials and approvals. His podcast called Plenary Session is good too. 

Amazon.com: Malignant: How Bad Policy and Bad Evidence Harm People with Cancer (Audible Audio Edition): Vinayak K. Prasad, Vinayak K. Prasad, Vinayak K. Prasad: Books


----------



## stringer

"I think the current wokeness politics being played inside the pentagon is a prime example of where are military is heading. We've got a four star Tranny (now an Admiral) over our troops. This is not an isolated incident. I may not really care what people do behind closed doors, it's not my business, but when our country is appointing transvestites to high office in our military, that's a huge problem."

I see what you mean about political discussions you are involved in devolving into something nasty.

Do you think the military should return to it's previous policies of Don't Ask Don't Tell and silencing the victims of and ignoring systemic sexual and gender violence?

Maybe that would be better for "morale "


----------



## ian

“It’s bad for my morale, because I have a problem with trans people, and I think some other people in the military also have a problem with trans people, and it’s bad for their morale too.”

Maybe just be aware that this is what you’re saying. You’re making a choice to support a culture that’s intolerant of people’s personal choices. Your argument is that it then makes it harder to do their jobs, but man, that’s kind of self serving and self perpetuating. There’s nothing intrinsically about transsexuality that makes someone any less qualified for a military job, other than the fact that some people for some reason have a problem with it. (And I bet the trans general in the Public Health corp you’re talking about is super super qualified…) By falling back on that reasoning, you’re saying “I want this to keep being the case”, rather than allowing everyone to have a fair shot at military success, and allowing the status quo to change in favor of tolerance.


----------



## MarcelNL

Bill13 said:


> His book Malignant is a good read about what has gone wrong with cancer trials and approvals. His podcast called Plenary Session is good too.
> 
> Amazon.com: Malignant: How Bad Policy and Bad Evidence Harm People with Cancer (Audible Audio Edition): Vinayak K. Prasad, Vinayak K. Prasad, Vinayak K. Prasad: Books
> 
> View attachment 204542


Care to explain the link between the upper and lower piece of this post, I have to confess that I'm struggling to detect a common denominator other than the author?

Anyone can write stuff and publish it, having something published does not make it true or right so please explain why you think which parts he is writing are important.

new booster by Moderna, study; https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2208343
new booster by Pfizer, study; Adapted vaccine targeting BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron variants original SARS-CoV-2 recommended for approval - European Medicines Agency


----------



## Grayswandir

Jovidah said:


> Oh sure the A-10 is great... when you're plastering low-tech insurgents who have no proper anti-air. The problem is that in a war against a proper near-peer opponent you cannot use it that way; it'll just get shot down when you try to use it in low-level attacks with its cannon. Which is exactly what happened in the first Gulf War, after which they only used it in high-altitude attacks with missiles, just like any other jet. It's just not survivable in a modern combat environment, and you're better off just having more multiroles. The AC-130 has a similar problem; these kind of planes are great for certain use niche uses like counter-insurgency but in a 'proper' war they quickly run into problems.
> You cannot expect to just loiter above the battlefield casually attacking ground targets in impunity when fighting a war against China or Russia, regardless of what your endurance is.
> 
> 
> I honestly don't spend that much time watching American media - and especially not on domestic issues - , but the problem is that in this 'scramble for relevance' sometimes bad ideas are given a far larger audience than deserved. The best example that comes to mind is how Mearsheimer's views on Ukraine have gotten already gotten 25 million views on YT... while being completely misguided and misinformed. Similarly, I've seen plenty of media takes on the current war in Ukraine that were either too simplistic, oversimplified or simply paying too much attention to less relevant things (journalists putting all attention on 'the battle for kiev' for a full month when the city was basically saved after a week, while ignoring everythign else for example).
> I don't think there's necessarily always any harm intended, and I get how narratives and stories have to be simplified because most people cannot spend 4 hours a day keeping up with the news even if they wanted to, but it gets annoying if you're a bit deeper into the subject matter yourself. It's probably similar to how us knife geeks get annoyed by half the YT videos on knives and sharpening.
> Allowing reasonably people to make up their own mind based on the facts requires them to actually get all of the facts; that's not always possible.
> 
> Honestly I don't consider myself knowledgable enough on Chinese interal politics to really give an accurate prediction of what their calculus is. But regardless of the outcome the cost would be high enough that it would be disastruous even with a US victory.
> 
> I think this is really being overplayed in certain media circles. In the end the military is still a strong meritocracy... and most of modern war does not rely on 'maximum testosterone'. In a war with China more people will be holding a computer mouse than a gun. I'm not getting the impression that standards are being sacrificed in any meaningful manner; military services are always quite adamant about that.
> What emboldens the enemies, be it Russia or China is not when they think they can start a war while facing a slightly weaker US military (whether this is an imagined weakening or not), what emboldens then is when they think they can start a war without fighting the US at all.
> Russia didn't invade Ukraine because he thought he could win against NATO, he went in because he thought he could take over Ukraine without fighting NATO at all.


Yeah, point well taken. Problem is, we really need to develop something better then the F-35. The idea sounded good in theory (build the same plane for all the different branches of the military), but didn't work very well in practice. Maybe it will will be a decent bird someday, but the amount of money that went into the project makes it the most expensive weapons program ever.

My beef with The mainstream media is that it's seriously biased and outright controlled. We're better off tuning out and spending our time doing other things.

The last thing we need is a war with China, I agree, but there are plenty of sickos in both governments that make it a certainty. It's not a question of if, but when.

I think soldiers will always play a key role in war despite all of the new technology. At some point you have to send in people to take the territory and hold it. You're right, Putin knew he wouldn't be fighting NATO/U.S.A. I think he did make some serious miscalculations and mistakes, but the wars not over yet. Who knows how it will all play out.

I've been seeing a lot of articles on nuclear war recently, the media seems hot on spreading as much fear as possible, nothing new of course.


----------



## Grayswandir

ian said:


> “It’s bad for my morale, because I have a problem with trans people, and I think some other people in the military also have a problem with trans people, and it’s bad for their morale too.”
> 
> Maybe just be aware that this is what you’re saying. You’re making a choice to support a culture that’s intolerant of people’s personal choices. Your argument is that it then makes it harder to do their jobs, but man, that’s kind of self serving and self perpetuating. There’s nothing intrinsically about transsexuality that makes someone any less qualified for a military job, other than the fact that some people for some reason have a problem with it. (And I bet the trans general in the Public Health corp you’re talking about is super super qualified…) By falling back on that reasoning, you’re saying “I want this to keep being the case”, rather than allowing everyone to have a fair shot at military success, and allowing the status quo to change in favor of tolerance.


The truth is the great majority of people on the planet feel this way. It used to be looked at as a mental illness (and rightly so). The problem is the wrong people are running the asylum and this is what they want. A dude in a dress is always going to be a dude in a dress. The new lingo isn't going to change my mind, nor is it going to make it right or acceptable in my eyes. The "in thing" right now is inviting men in drag to swing on stripper poles in our schools. They're even teaching the kids how to tip them! You let crazy become normal, and it will get much, much worse (it's pretty bad already). I'm actually a very tolerant person, moreso then most of the dishonest politicians spouting their garbage every chance they get, but there's no way in hell I'm going to call evil good and good evil, no way.

This isn't about being fair, the world isn't fair and will never be fair. Soldiers need to act and look like soldiers. It's outrageous that we've fallen so low and allowed a man in drag to be called an Admiral. The entire world is watching. Taboos were designed to keep society healthy, and our society is sick. All you need to do is take a good look around you. My country is falling apart, and it's because the far-left loonies think criminals shouldn't go to jail, the police shouldn't shoot violent criminals, and that sexual deviancy should be mainstream. I guarantee you the great majority of Americans want no part of that agenda, and will eventually rise up and openly fight against it. It will probably happen sooner rather then later, otherwise we won't have a country left to fight for.

Tolerance is justa code word for insanity. It only runs in one direction. I didn't see a lot of tolerance for the last President. The majority of the manstream media hounded that man non-stop, from his first day in office to his last day in office. There are things we shouldn't tolerate, for the sake of our own survival and for the health and prosperity of the next generation. Hopefully that's a personal choice a lot of people will be making and the country will be set right again.


----------



## Grayswandir

stringer said:


> "I think the current wokeness politics being played inside the pentagon is a prime example of where are military is heading. We've got a four star Tranny (now an Admiral) over our troops. This is not an isolated incident. I may not really care what people do behind closed doors, it's not my business, but when our country is appointing transvestites to high office in our military, that's a huge problem."
> 
> I see what you mean about political discussions you are involved in devolving into something nasty.
> 
> Do you think the military should return to it's previous policies of Don't Ask Don't Tell and silencing the victims of and ignoring systemic sexual and gender violence?
> 
> Maybe that would be better for "morale "


I'm not being nasty at all, I'm just not going to lie and say I think it's okay. If that's the kind of thing you're into that's fine, I just happen to think a certain segment of society has gone insane. Don't ask don't tell was fine. Sexual violence is not. Men and women get raped in the military all the time, and letting guys go to work in drag isn't going to fix it. 

I appreciate you being so self-righteous.


----------



## Luftmensch

This thread has had heated discussions that has allowed for many different views. Some rather fringe - but that is in the eye of the beholder. The moderators have tolerated _a lot_. We are the beneficiaries of that generosity. Let's keep the wheels on the wagon.




Grayswandir said:


> We've got a four star Tranny (now an Admiral) over our troops. This is not an isolated incident. I may not really care what people do behind closed doors, it's not my business, but when our country is appointing transvestites to high office in our military, that's a huge problem. It not only hurts moral, but it emboldens our enemies. Standards have dropped across all of our armed forces.





Grayswandir said:


> The truth is the great majority of people on the planet feel this way. It used to be looked at as a mental illness (and rightly so). The problem is the wrong people are running the asylum and this is what they want. A dude in a dress is always going to be a dude in a dress. The new lingo isn't going to change my mind, nor is it going to make it right or acceptable in my eyes. The "in thing" right now is inviting men in drag to swing on stripper poles in our schools. They're even teaching the kids how to tip them! You let crazy become normal, and it will get much, much worse (it's pretty bad already). I'm actually a very tolerant person, moreso then most of the dishonest politicians spouting their garbage every chance they get, but there's no way in hell I'm going to call evil good and good evil, no way.
> 
> This isn't about being fair, the world isn't fair and will never be fair. Soldiers need to act and look like soldiers. It's outrageous that we've fallen so low and allowed a man in drag to be called an Admiral. The entire world is watching. Taboos were designed to keep society healthy, and our society is sick. All you need to do is take a good look around you. My country is falling apart, and it's because the far-left loonies think criminals shouldn't go to jail, the police shouldn't shoot violent criminals, and that sexual deviancy should be mainstream. I guarantee you the great majority of Americans want no part of that agenda, and will eventually rise up and openly fight against it. It will probably happen sooner rather then later, otherwise we won't have a country left to fight for.
> 
> Tolerance is justa code word for insanity. It only runs in one direction. I didn't see a lot of tolerance for the last President. The majority of the manstream media hounded that man non-stop, from his first day in office to his last day in office. There are things we shouldn't tolerate, for the sake of our own survival and for the health and prosperity of the next generation. Hopefully that's a personal choice a lot of people will be making and the country will be set right again.



This is reportable content.

The Terms and rules of the forum :



> *5. Member Conduct*
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> 5.2.
> 
> You agree to refrain from engaging in any inappropriate conduct when using the Websites. Inappropriate conduct will not be tolerated and may result in the termination of member privileges. Inappropriate conduct is any conduct or behavior deemed by us, in our sole and absolute discretion, to be harmful to the online community, including, but not limited to, the following:
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Also; note that while politics is not listed as a banned topic, there is a gentleman's agreement to refrain from being overly political.

I dont agree _at all_ with your sentiments but I respect you are likely to have your reasons for holding them. We are creatures of our environment. While I think your position on this is misguided, I am not here to change your mind. This all said, I hope you have the self awareness to know that your opinions are likely to be hurtful to some and out-dated to many others. Please stop sharing them. You are _not_ being silenced. This is just not the forum for those discussions. KKF is a diverse community. Not all of our opinions will align - not even on what HRC MagnaCut should be treated at...


----------



## Keith Sinclair

For a different point of view from Mainstream media started to investigate Russia since breakup in 1991. That led me to a couple of experts in the field. Julia Loffe born in Russia raised in USA. She has lived in Russia & Ukraine as journalist. She has friends in both countries & has knowledge of how Putin dictatorship works. One thing stands out Putin has done most of what he said he would. Also more dangerous now than ever being cornered. 

Jeffrey Sachs Columbia University economist. He was sent in to help Russia & Poland rebuild economies after breakup. 

Talks about present US policy false narrative stoking tensions with Russia & China. The relentless narrative that we are noble, Russia & China are evil. 

How when Russians breakup dissolved the Warsaw pact. Western powers had less need for NATO. Instead US continued to increase NATO countries to democracies. 

He talks about secret service knowledge sealed, policy being run by a small group of people. Now generals & Democrats who are stoking the fire. Sending advanced anti ship missiles to Taiwan & adding presence in South China Sea. 

How when we were on the brink in the Cuba missile crisis advisers wanted to bomb & invade Cuba before nuclear missiles ready. False info. the missiles were finished and aimed at American cities. Kennedy cool head prevailed made a deal with Russians to remove missiles from Turkey and not to invade Cuba. They removed all the nukes from Cuba. Castro wanted Russians to fire them at US. 

For Russia Ukraine & Crimea final straw cutting off southern naval base. Putin always considered Ukraine part of Russia anyway. 

China is ancient civilization, a growing power in the world. The US cannot be moral policeman of the planet. War Hawk democrats are playing a dangerous game on two fronts.


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## Keith Sinclair

Sorry was wondering when moderator would step in. We need less hatred & more communication. We are all humans not so different on this amazing planet.


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## Jovidah

Keith Sinclair said:


> For a different point of view from Mainstream media started to investigate Russia since breakup in 1991. That led me to a couple of experts in the field. Julia Loffe born in Russia raised in USA. She has lived in Russia & Ukraine as journalist. She has friends in both countries & has knowledge of how Putin dictatorship works. One thing stands out Putin has done most of what he said he would. Also more dangerous now than ever being cornered.


It's worth bearing in mind though that a lot of voices (though not all) 'not heard in mainstream media' are not heard for good reason. It's because they're either people who don't have a clue or are people who are wilfully disemminating misinformation and false narratives. Not saying Julia Loffe is one of them (haven't heard of her nor read any of her writings), but it's something worth bearing in mind. There's a lot of quite good and knowledgeable experts, even on places like twitter and YT, but there's just as many 'false prophets' who are just spewing blatant Kremlin propaganda. It's very hard to distinguish the wheat from the chaff if you're not deep into the subject already.


Keith Sinclair said:


> Jeffrey Sachs Columbia University economist. He was sent in to help Russia & Poland rebuild economies after breakup.
> 
> Talks about present US policy false narrative stoking tensions with Russia & China. The relentless narrative that we are noble, Russia & China are evil.


Yeah I read up on this guy and frankly he reeks. I didn't do an exhaustive search but some of the things he said - and the timing of them - are eerily similar to all the other Kremlin mouthpieces. These are similar arguments a lot you hear from other 'intellectuals' in the west who apparently are so blinded by dislike of what they consider imperial behavior of the US that they end up embracing and apologizing for far worse behavior from an imperial russia. Welcome to classical both-sideism. As much as one might dislike or disagree some of the things US has done in the past, there is nothing the US has done that can remotely excuse or validate Russia starting a brutal war of aggression with genocidal intent upon a peaceful neighbour with a democratic government. The US might not be the most noble country on earth, but there certainly is a massive gap between the moral ground the US occupies and the ground Russia occupies. At this point using any academical definition of a terrorist group just about the only thing seperating Russia from one is that it's still officially recognized as a sovereign state; in all other accounts their behavior is actually very similar to one.


Keith Sinclair said:


> How when Russians breakup dissolved the Warsaw pact. Western powers had less need for NATO. Instead US continued to increase NATO countries to democracies.


Aaah the classical realist narrative... which ironically is incredibly imperial in nature...

There are several major problems with this narrative:
-Russia was an imperial state seeking to expand itself long before NATO was even a thing or the US became a superpower.

-All the eastern European countries who were part of the Warsaw pact weren't part of the Warsaw pact because their populations desired them to be. They were part of the Warsaw pact because they were occupied by the Soviet Union at the tail end of world war 2 and essentially became occupied territories ran by puppet regimes. Whenever countries wanted to stray from this path Russia just stamped it out with violence like happened in Budapest '56 and Prague '68. They actually tried to do the same during the collapse of the USSR (for example in the Baltic states), it just didn't work that time.

-Eastern European states didn't join NATO from any strong desire of the US to bring them in; they came in because _they felt a strong desire to join. _This was largely motivated by both a historical experience of being attacked and occupied by Russia in the past....and developments within Russia. Two main ones: the coups in the 90s that essentially showed that not much had really changed and democracy 'wasn't going to make it', and the Chechen wars, that indicated to the Eastern European countries that it would only be a matter of time before Russia tried to restore its hegemony in the region. Which is exactly what we've seen since then in countries that did not join NATO (both Georgia and Ukraine).

-Whats most troubling about this idea is when you bring this to its logical conclusion. People make the case that eastern European countries and Ukraine should be 'left outside of NATO as a buffer state'. There's some very big problems with this idea. The first is that it completely denies the independence and desires of these peoples; it reduces them to second rate pawns in a bigger imperialist game, instead of actually considering their own independent interests and treating them as dignified actors with their own agency.

The second problem is that most people seem to not realize what it really means to be a 'buffer state in the Russian sphere'. What this means is constant suppresion of freedom of expression, constant outside manipulation of the political system, constant oppression, political assasinations, corruption, etc. It's all the crap we've seen in Ukraine preceding maidan and which were the main motivations why people eventually rose up. Demoting a country to be a 'Russian buffer state' is just throwing them to the wolves.

-For historical perspective. World War 2 in Europe didn't just start with Germany attacking Poland. It started with Germany attacking Poland together with the USSR. Followed by the Soviet invasion of Finland. Followed by the Soviet occupation of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Followed by the Soviet occupiation of part of Romania (Bessarabia). For most of Europe World War 2 wasn't followed by democracy, freedom and growing prosperity; it was followed by 45 years of continued occupation.


Keith Sinclair said:


> He talks about secret service knowledge sealed, policy being run by a small group of people. Now generals & Democrats who are stoking the fire. Sending advanced anti ship missiles to Taiwan & adding presence in South China Sea.


Thing is...we actually HAVE the 'alternative history' already of what happens when you try to appease tyrants. All the western governments (Europe really has the main guilt in this) forced Ukraine into essentially surrendering part of its territory in the Minsk agreements. They withheld stronger support and weaponry from Ukraine. They denied NATO membership (in 2008 already). What was the result? Russian invasions and thousands of dead. The 2014 invasions were a result of not extending NATO membership in 2008. The 2022 invasion was a result of 'accomodating Russia' in 2014-2015.


Keith Sinclair said:


> For Russia Ukraine & Crimea final straw cutting off southern naval base. Putin always considered Ukraine part of Russia anyway.


Hitler felt he was entitled to Sudetenland...and then Czechia...and then Memel...and then Danzig...and the rest of Poland. Putin might consider half of eastern Europe as 'rightfully part of Russia' just because it was held by the Russian empire at one point or another.
Reality is Crimea was never particularly Russian, was administratively part of Ukraine which chose independence, and it's population actually voted for independence in 1991. So did the people in the Donbas.
If you were to justify territorial demands from stronger powers based on whatever entitlement they felt or geographical claims you could literally throw out all the maps in the world... and you'd be back to 19th century colonial era.


Keith Sinclair said:


> China is ancient civilization, a growing power in the world. The US cannot be moral policeman of the planet. War Hawk democrats are playing a dangerous game on two fronts.


Apart from the questionable 'continuity' when it comes to the different things considered China over the century... the problem is that its current regime has openly voiced revisionist intent and a desire to achieve them at any means nessecary - even by force. If the US doesn't stand up to it, who will? You're back to 19th century anarchy if no one does.
Yes, it's a dangerous game, but if no one plays it you're just surrendering the smaller countries to the wolves again. We've seen what happened in Hong Kong. Why should 20 million people in Taiwan be delivered into totalitarianism just because Beijing demands it? And what's to stop them demanding more just like Hitler did?
Besides, countering Chinese 'assertiveness' is not a partisan affair... for all the rhetoric democrats and republicans are reasonably aligned on this.


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## Michi

Grayswandir said:


> I think the current wokeness politics being played inside the pentagon is a prime example of where our military is heading. We've got a four star Tranny (now an Admiral) over our troops. This is not an isolated incident. I may not really care what people do behind closed doors, it's not my business, but when our country is appointing transvestites to high office in our military, that's a huge problem.


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## Keith Sinclair

Well better hope that increasingly unstable Putin will end up with a bullet in the brain before he unleashes chemical, biological or even tactical nukes on Ukraine.


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## Keith Sinclair

My nephew is FBI he married his Russian language teacher. All my hapa Chinese cousins their kids & grandkids. Scottish, Hawaiian, Chinese, Portuguese mixes. 

Maybe Hillery can call me a Russian & Chinese asset


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## Jovidah

Keith Sinclair said:


> Well better hope that increasingly unstable Putin will end up with a bullet in the brain before he unleashes chemical, biological or even tactical nukes on Ukraine.


As much as I'd welcome an untimely demise for him, I don't think it would necessarily change a whole lot. Anyone who would replace him would likely be one of the people who already had a seat on the same table making the same decisions. 
The chances of any assasinations, coup attempts or even full-blown civil wars ending with a significantly more appealing government in Moscow are very slim. Most likely you'd just end up with someone cut from the same cloth, or even worse. I think a lot of people who talk enthusiastically about regime change in Russia are really falling into the trap of 'wishful analysis'.

Even if any replacement might _want_ to pull out of Ukraine, they might struggle to actually achieve that since at this point it's very hard to find a settlement agreeable to both sides (or for example acceptable to all parts of the government / population).


Keith Sinclair said:


> My nephew is FBI he married his Russian language teacher. All my hapa Chinese cousins their kids & grandkids. Scottish, Hawaiian, Chinese, Portuguese mixes.
> 
> Maybe Hillery can call me a Russian & Chinese asset


I know you're joking here, but that doesn't mean it's entirely a joking matter. I was never a big Hillary fan, but there are certainly plenty of people for whom that shoe clearly fits... Most won't have such a 'direct' and obvious link though, and it's difficult / near-impossible to distinguish 'useful idiots' from assets.


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## MarcelNL

Great write up of Histroy as I too know it...Europe looked a LOT different and the damage of the expansion of Russia was only minimized by having the western allies racing to the east...perhaps in future the transcript of the Jalta convention becomes accessible (not if there even is one, never looked for it).








Yalta Conference: How the post-War order was decided


Winston Churchill, Franklin Roosevelt and Joseph Stalin met in Crimea on February 4, 1945. They carved up Germany, Europe and reshaped the world order.




www.euronews.com






anyone sitting at Putin's table is still going to be a cousin three times removed ;-)


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## Luftmensch

That cousin looks five times removed!


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## Michi

That is a convincing picture of a leader who knows that his people adore him and support him for doing the right thing…


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## MarcelNL

perhaps someone should remind him of Stalin's promise, I'll see if I can find a phone nr;

_Meanwhile, Stalin, whose forces occupied much of eastern Europe at the end of the war, reneged on his pledge to hold for free and democratic elections and instead established communist parties across eastern Europe. _


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## Keith Sinclair

Putin is popular in Russia he supports the church a large % of Russians are religious. He is seen as a strong leader that saved Russia. State misinformation media has crafted his savior story. 

A video of Putin dressing down his spy chief was broadcast in Russia, so now it is everywhere. The great leader is in control.


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## Jovidah

Putin's main boost in popularity was the economical growth that started shortly after he got into power. Contrary to somewhat popular belief this had very little to do with any particular economical interventions on his part but relied almost entirely on rising energy prices boosting the income from fossile fuel exports - which is also one of his achilles heels and why 'defossilization' is such a scary word to Russia.

How popular Putin really is in Russia, just like any other aspect of national opinion, is very hard to actually determine. Doing opinion polling in an authoritarian state is an exercise in futility; people won't show the back of their tongue. There's plenty of people who dislike him but also plenty who do like him. 
At the end of the day it's not a major concern for him since his regime does not need popular support to remain in power. A long history of suppression has also led to a relatively high degree of political apathy. People don't particularly care until things start affecting them on a personal level...
The Russian orthodox church is just a complete joke; they're just another arm of the regime at this point. I think you're also overestimating how religious Russia is after almost a century of communism. Like many other western countries it has a lot of non-practising 'statistical Christians'.

Being 'in control' is actually not how I'd describe the current situation for Putin. His information situation is at best questionable, he has different parts of his security establishment at eachothers throats (the Crimean bridge attack might well have been an internal affair), and the 'privatization' of the conflict with his shift towards PMCs is outright playing with fire that can have very dangerous long-term effects (surrendering the government monopoly on violence is one of the perfect ways to create the conditions for a civil war).


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## Keith Sinclair

I was being sarcastic. During COVID told people was not that dangerous go to work no shutdowns. Quite a few Russians died. While he was isolated if people came to see him had to have disinfecting spray, mask & distancing. 

You make good points esp. polling in dictatorship. No one expected Ukraine to hold out this long. Things aren't as good for people of Russia since invasion. There have been protest Putin swiftly takes care of that & blames it on Americans. KGB placing blame elsewhere. That's how he amassed enormous wealth.


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## Jovidah

Apologies; the sarcasm flew over my head.  The goal of that footage of Putin chastasing his minions unironically was to try and boost his standing at the cost of those under him... make him look like the strongman. Those under him generally accept it because most are weak yaysayers who are selected more for loyalty than their competence. Anyone competent enough to be an actual threat usually doesn't stick around... 

The best example is the previous defense minister Serdyukov. He actually made a genuine effort to tackle corruption and spending issues. Of course in the process he stepped on a lot of toes, so in a few years he got replaced again by Shoigu, under whom corruption flourished again. 
Why Shoigu hasn't gotten the axe yet boggles the mind. He's been around long enough that you can assume he knows how to 'play the game', but given the cluster**** we've seen after the invasion started he was the first one you'd expect to be the sacrificial lamb. The only explanations I can come up with is that either he has enough dirt on people to secure his position, or he's simply preserved as a scapegoat for later.


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## MarcelNL

Russia had a few 'mandatory holidays' during the worst Covid periods, basically lockdowns


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## Michi

MarcelNL said:


> 'mandatory holidays'


Euphemisms rock!


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## sansho

Science | AAAS







www.science.org





a nice review of the benefits and risks of covid boosters. it was in the most recent issue of science.

draw your own conclusions, but i'm in the age group that is the focus of the article (where risk-benefit ratio is most contested). i'm mostly concerned with long covid but am also slightly worried about vaccine side effects. i have to admit, i'm considering not getting a booster until more studies come out. the main reason is that paxlovid seems to still be effective, and as long as i have access to that (and can start taking it as soon as i test positive), i feel like that's the single biggest thing i can do to reduce my risk of long covid. booster might help some as well, but _in my head_, it's like an order of magnitude of difference in risk reduction if i get a symptomatic infection. also, if i need to get boosted for a job, for travel, to go to a party without lying to people, etc, i'm not sweating that. i'm not _scared_ of getting another one, per se. but i'm also not chomping at the bit for another dose like i was before.


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## EricEricEric

Things continuing to become ever more interesting…

“The Atlantic has come under fire for suggesting that all the terrible pandemic-era decisions over lockdowns, school closures, masking, and punishing an entire class of people who questioned the efficacy and wisdom of taking a rushed, experimental vaccine - for a virus with a 99% survival rate in most, should all be water under the bridge.”







"You Murderous Hypocrites": Outrage Ensues After The Atlantic Suggests 'Amnesty' For Pandemic Authoritarians | ZeroHedge


ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




www.zerohedge.com


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## MarcelNL

Just googled 'zerohedge', I must say that looks like a fantastic source if you're into conspiracies.....


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## ian

The name of the website certainly indicates that they’re not interested in nuance…



sansho said:


> Science | AAAS
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.science.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> a nice review of the benefits and risks of covid boosters. it was in the most recent issue of science.
> 
> draw your own conclusions, but i'm in the age group that is the focus of the article (where risk-benefit ratio is most contested). i'm mostly concerned with long covid but am also slightly worried about vaccine side effects. i have to admit, i'm considering not getting a booster until more studies come out. the main reason is that paxlovid seems to still be effective, and as long as i have access to that (and can start taking it as soon as i test positive), i feel like that's the single biggest thing i can do to reduce my risk of long covid. booster might help some as well, but _in my head_, it's like an order of magnitude of difference in risk reduction if i get a symptomatic infection. also, if i need to get boosted for a job, for travel, to go to a party without lying to people, etc, i'm not sweating that. i'm not _scared_ of getting another one, per se. but i'm also not chomping at the bit for another dose like i was before.



Can you get a paxlovid prescription? I’m kind of confused about the authorization. In the possibly outdated info I found, you have to be at high risk for severe covid to get a prescription. Also doesn’t seem like there’s a ton of info about paxlovid out there except for the very strong performance against the virus among unvaccinated people shown in the original study. Wonder when more studies are going to come out.


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## MarcelNL

https://www.fda.gov/media/158165/download










Conversation on Paxlovid | Q&A with FDA Podcast | Transcript


Q&A with FDA Podcast | Transcript




www.fda.gov


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## sansho

ian said:


> Can you get a paxlovid prescription? I’m kind of confused about the authorization. In the possibly outdated info I found, you have to be at high risk for severe covid to get a prescription. Also doesn’t seem like there’s a ton of info about paxlovid out there except for the very strong performance against the virus among unvaccinated people shown in the original study. Wonder when more studies are going to come out.



like any script, it depends on the doc/institution. i've heard really mixed stories on this one, though. some give it out like candy, others only want to prescribe it if you're dying.

imo worth finding out ahead of time if you can easily get it or not, but i guess either you can or you can't, so maybe it doesn't matter.

i got it when i had covid, and i thought it worked pretty well. just wish i took it a little sooner. right after diagnosis is ideal.
i recovered quickly, but i already lost my sense of smell and had the main symptoms by the time i started it.

someone i know that i probably transmitted it to took it with a day of symptoms starting (also the day after testing), and it went away for her in about a day. barely got symptoms.

it's labeled for use within 5 days of symptom onset, but by that point, symptoms often fully manifest anyway, so you throw away a lot of the potential benefit. better to take it immediately and arrest replication. obviously this hasn't been thoroughly studied yet, but i don't see how you'd get long covid if you never really get covid (very little tissue infected/affected).

the only side effect we really noticed was bad taste in mouth (commonly reported).

i bet it will get resistant eventually, though. just like antibiotics.


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## MarcelNL

it's a virus, those mutate and may become immune to an antiviral drug if the mechanism of action is no longer 'fitting' the virus but I don't think they get resistant


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## Keith Sinclair

Combinatorial chemistry was developed in Budapest Hungary 1982. Since not only advances in computers also robotics have led to an industrial approach to combinatorial synthesis. Virtual library of mass production of small molecules.


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## sansho

MarcelNL said:


> it's a virus, those mutate and may become immune to an antiviral drug if the mechanism of action is no longer 'fitting' the virus but I don't think they get resistant



what do you mean? resistance is the term of art. this is what i meant by resistant:








Antiviral drug - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org


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## Bill13

MarcelNL said:


> https://www.fda.gov/media/158165/download
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Conversation on Paxlovid | Q&A with FDA Podcast | Transcript
> 
> 
> Q&A with FDA Podcast | Transcript
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.fda.gov




The knockout data starts at 1:45. It gives a good taste of how upset this liberal Dr is about how the FDA is lying by omission.


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## MarcelNL

sansho said:


> what do you mean? resistance is the term of art. this is what i meant by resistant:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Antiviral drug - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org


just that the mechanism of a virus evading a drug is different from how a bacteria becomes resistant to an AB.
Bacteria become resistant by misuse of antibiotics, not just due to that but to a large extent.








Antimicrobial resistance - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org


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## tcmx3

it's absolutely bonkers as a Jewish person watching someone talk about how the media is controlled by "them" and just casually drop a ton of slurs.


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## sansho

MarcelNL said:


> just that the mechanism of a virus evading a drug is different from how a bacteria becomes resistant to an AB.
> Bacteria become resistant by misuse of antibiotics, not just due to that but to a large extent.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Antimicrobial resistance - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org



to the extent that viruses and bacteria can be compared _period_, how is the mechanism not the same?
it's selection pressure on populations (of bacterial organisms or viral material) that have not been completely eradicated. this can happen _in vitro_ and _in vivo_.
you can "misuse" antivirals just like antibiotics and increase the chance of resistant variants/strains dominating and spreading.

what distinction are you trying to make?


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## MarcelNL

sansho said:


> to the extent that viruses and bacteria can be compared _period_, how is the mechanism not the same?
> it's selection pressure on populations (of bacterial organisms or viral material) that have not been completely eradicated. this can happen _in vitro_ and _in vivo_.
> you can "misuse" antivirals just like antibiotics and increase the chance of resistant variants/strains dominating and spreading.
> 
> what distinction are you trying to make?


that from what I know (and that may be too little) viruses mutate all the time and may mutate in such a way that an antiviral drug is no longer effective, but that bacteria are more prone to becoming resistant due to natural selection which is aggravated by misuse of AB (folks not completing a treatment, too low doses, over the counter use etc)


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## sansho

mutation is the source of all new traits (except sort of in genetic engineering ), including drug resistance traits (viral or otherwise).
new phenos can "randomly" appear on their own, but they are selected for by the environment. this applies to viruses.

this line of questioning and discussion is used in virology:





Science | AAAS







www.science.org





i still don't get what you're trying to say. antiviral (mis)use is selection pressure.


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## MarcelNL

I probably misinterpreted something a long time ago, microbiology has been a while...


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## Nemo

I'm afraid that the moderators' patience with this thread has ended.


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