# The Swedish experiment



## Michi (Nov 28, 2020)

It looks like this strategy didn't pan out so well:









'Caught up in their own bullshit': The cost of Sweden's controversial coronavirus strategy


Sweden's idea of not following conventional coronavirus measures led to a death rate triple that of its neighbours, and even though a vaccine could be close, the country may need the kind of measures it tried to avoid throughout the pandemic.




www.abc.net.au


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## rickbern (Nov 28, 2020)

“Caught up in their own bullsh1t”? I think that title could describe the response of lots of countries around the world, especially the one at the top of that graph.


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## DrEriksson (Nov 28, 2020)

The response from public health agency of Sweden has been to say that we are best, then that numbers can’t be compared, then that other countries will catch up, then that we are best in the world, then that numbers can’t be compared, and now that the numbers are probably wrong. Let me tell you, that there is a lot of frustration among many Swedes about this, and there are also many Swedes who seem ignorant that there is actually a pandemic going on.

The response from our government is that they listen to the ministry of health, so they do their best to avoid accountability. Our prime minister, however, said that each citizen must take responsibility and push through. 

You probably can see my frustration shining through. I don’t know what’s wrong or right, but some national leadership from someone who is not a professional welder would be appreciated.


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## Carl Kotte (Nov 28, 2020)

Oh no, @Michi you didn’t!


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## HappyamateurDK (Feb 5, 2021)

DrEriksson said:


> The response from public health agency of Sweden has been to say that we are best, then that numbers can’t be compared, then that other countries will catch up, then that we are best in the world, then that numbers can’t be compared, and now that the numbers are probably wrong. Let me tell you, that there is a lot of frustration among many Swedes about this, and there are also many Swedes who seem ignorant that there is actually a pandemic going on.
> 
> The response from our government is that they listen to the ministry of health, so they do their best to avoid accountability. Our prime minister, however, said that each citizen must take responsibility and push through.
> 
> You probably can see my frustration shining through. I don’t know what’s wrong or right, but some national leadership from someone who is not a professional welder would be appreciated.



The Swedish strategy has bin debated a lot here in Denmark too.. anything else would be weird when two comparable neighbor countries choose so different strategies. I won’t be the judge of what was wrong and right. We must all accepts that we are currently paving the road while we walk it. And mistakes will be made.


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## DrEriksson (Feb 5, 2021)

HappyamateurDK said:


> The Swedish strategy has bin debated a lot here in Denmark too.. anything else would be weird when two comparable neighbor countries choose so different strategies. I won’t be the judge of what was wrong and right. We must all accepts that we are currently paving the road while we walk it. And mistakes will be made.



We certainly not must accept the mistakes made though. The government should be held accountable for how they lead the country. And just because we pave the road as we go, we should not be content with a poorly paved road.


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## HappyamateurDK (Feb 5, 2021)

DrEriksson said:


> We certainly not must accept the mistakes made though. The government should be held accountable for how they lead the country. And just because we pave the road as we go, we should not be content with a poorly paved road.



It would have suited your minister of state, and Anders Tegnell to turn down the arrogance a bit.


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## inferno (Feb 5, 2021)

what none of you seem to understand is that "locking down the country" is not a legal option. this is not stasi germany. or russia. there is 0 legal actions they could take to lock down people. and to change any of these laws you have to change the swedish variant of the constitution (grundlagen) and you can only do that over a period of at least 2 or 3 mandate periods (4 years each), to prevent things like what happened in germany in the 40ies... and you all know how well that one went.

and besides that. none of that **** would have made any difference at all. the people that are dying in sweden isn't really dying because of the lax laws. its because of the people that are treating the old are imported incompetent people that dont know jack **** about hygiene. and they dont even care. and the real problem is that the gov is not willing to speak the truth. because that would show that they have been blinded by their **** ideology for 30 years straight.

but hey *** do i know.

tegnell is just saying what he's been told to say. to downplay the previous 30 years of idiocracy. and many people voted for this. they wanted this. and now they get it. *** is there to complain about??


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## DrEriksson (Feb 6, 2021)

inferno said:


> what none of you seem to understand is that...



It seems like you’re addressing me as I recently posted here, but it’s hard to know as your answer does not reflect my previous posts. But at least your post proved Godwin right.


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## outofgamut (Feb 6, 2021)

DrEriksson said:


> We certainly not must accept the mistakes made though. The government should be held accountable for how they lead the country. And just because we pave the road as we go, we should not be content with a poorly paved road.



I agree.

I think finding your way by trying out things that *make sense* to an educated group is ok. Then you reassess and try to figure out where a) your mistakes were and b) how to improve on them. That's how science works.

I've only followed Sweden's response from a significant distance (I'm in Melbourne). To me it seems Sweden fell into the same trap most of us did - thinking what we're dealing with is something like influenza. Pandemic influenza is the pathogen that countries all over the world had been 'ready' to combat for many years. That's what those supplies of gowns, masks etc were for. And that's what the book of pandemic response was written for.

COVID, of course, is quite different from influenza for a number of reasons. No point in trying to write a boring long diatribe here but I'm thinking of things like transmission (particularly via aerosols), significant pre-symptomatic phase during which people are already infectious and, of course, the significant morbidity and mortality the illness carries.

To me it seems that Sweden felt that this was some form of influenza-like illness. Sure, a bit worse, but in the end something that could be fought with the weapons that worked sufficiently against pandemic influenza. Turns out that is not the case. To me the problem lies not in Sweden's initial response to the pandemic - everyone was scrambling to find an effective strategy - but in the stubborn denial that what they were doing was not working.

I of course spent the pandemic in a country that was highly successful in suppressing the pandemic. I am quite happy how it went. But we also need to be mindful of the fact that the response in some Australian states was quite draconian. When some people felt the significant restrictions were uncalled for (which I don't agree with) and wanted to protest they were told that 'now is not the time to protest'. This is a very dangerous way to argue in a democracy.

This pandemic - for all its horror - has brought about many aspects of fascination for me. One is certainly the possibility to see every single country in the world and how they respond to a threat. It's not the same threat, mind you, because those countries are so different regarding infrastructure, location, financial resources, population and so forth. But at the core - a sub-existential challenge of the rarest kind - it is the same for all.


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## alterwisser (Feb 6, 2021)

inferno said:


> what none of you seem to understand is that "locking down the country" is not a legal option. this is not stasi germany. or russia. there is 0 legal actions they could take to lock down people. and to change any of these laws you have to change the swedish variant of the constitution (grundlagen) and you can only do that over a period of at least 2 or 3 mandate periods (4 years each), to prevent things like what happened in germany in the 40ies... and you all know how well that one went.
> 
> and besides that. none of that **** would have made any difference at all. the people that are dying in sweden isn't really dying because of the lax laws. its because of the people that are treating the old are imported incompetent people that dont know jack **** about hygiene. and they dont even care. and the real problem is that the gov is not willing to speak the truth. because that would show that they have been blinded by their **** ideology for 30 years straight.
> 
> ...



if you want to avoid what happened in Germany in the 40’s (actually it was in the 30’s what you’re referring to) just make sure that Austrians are not allowed to take any important roles in your government. That’s all.

Austria: starting two world wars, winning none and (Successfully) blaming Germany both times.

i’m kidding, of course. Or am I?


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## outofgamut (Feb 6, 2021)

alterwisser said:


> Austria: starting two world wars, winning none and (Successfully) blaming Germany both times.
> 
> i’m kidding, of course. Or am I?



Make up your mind.


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## Luftmensch (Feb 6, 2021)

I don't subscribe to the idea that Sweden had no legal options. Or that its hands were tied by its constitution. I think that is more myth than truth. One that has been spread by people who are sympathetic to the Libertarian streak contained in that line of reasoning.

Non-lawyers like to frame law as black and white. In reality it can be awfully grey. A fair interpretation might require you to balance complex issues against many considerations. That can vary according to individual subjectivity, how the meaning of words are interpreted and what the perceived 'intention' of the law is. It isn't straight forward and this is why legal scholars can have different opinions on what is legally permissible.

Most countries have exceptional laws for health emergencies. Sweden is no different. They have the Infection Control Act which includes the following sections:



> Chapter 6, Section 4: The Government or the authority determined by the Government may issue the additional regulations required for appropriate infection control and for the protection of individuals.



and



> Chapter 6, Section 6: The Government may issue special regulations on infection control in accordance with this Act, if in a peacetime crisis that has a significant impact on the possibilities of maintaining effective infection control, there is a need for coordinated national measures or from a national perspective other special efforts in infection control.



If you don't accept there is legal room to act within those sections of the law, consider that the Government is there to Govern. Sweden passed laws in early-mid 2020 to close schools and businesses (etc) temporarily. The Government could have pursued continued and stronger measures in parliament. If there was a will, I am sure there would have been a way. But was there a will?

I am not claiming there isn't friction or politicking within Swedish governance. Maybe amending the law to address the pandemic would have taken two weeks... Maybe a month. Maybe it would have been impossible with a hostile opposition and parliament. Is that the same as zero legal options? I dont think so... It just circles back to ideology and whether people across the political spectrum can put aside their differences and act in the best interest of the people they serve.


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## AT5760 (Feb 6, 2021)

DrEriksson said:


> And just because we pave the road as we go, we should not be content with a poorly paved road.



well said @DrEriksson ! That insight applies far beyond the topic at hand.


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## DrEriksson (Feb 6, 2021)

I agree with much of what’s been written today. Just want to make clear that it’s hard (impossible) for me to know what strategy is right. 

I can however be upset by the lack of leadership, the lack of accountability, the behavior of our government officials (our PM went Xmas shopping and was almost proud for not knowing how to order online, the director general of the public health agency used public transport without mask when the ministry had recommended to use masks), the lack of preparedness (lack of face masks and disinfection) and how the blame is put on local leadership when it’s a national issue.

So while it’s a tough situation, there are things we should demand to work properly, and these things are not contingent on what strategy that is ultimately implemented.


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## outofgamut (Feb 6, 2021)

DrEriksson said:


> So while it’s a tough situation, there are things we should demand to work properly, and these things are not contingent on what strategy that is ultimately implemented.



I think a lot of it has to do with human psychology and the difficulty for many to pivot their mindset of how the world works to a significant degree.

Even in the medical community there have been many (and there still remain some) who were unwilling to see what was going to unfold. Even while Italy was being crushed by the pandemic people elsewhere said 'Yeah well, that's Italy - not us...'. For doctors who should have at least some basic understanding of epidemiological concepts of spread of contagious diseases (slow at first, then picking up at an immense rate -> exponential growth) there were quite a few who just couldn't (or wouldn't) see what was to come.

I see the mask denial in a somewhat similar light. The science behind all of it can be overwhelming to some to a degree that makes living with this degree of uncertainty and loss of control too difficult. By denying this reality it all suddenly becomes much easier. Nature can't easily be controlled. But if I find someone else to blame for these things - a human, or a group of identifiable humans for instance - then all of this nebulous, uncontrollable fear suddenly finds somewhere to hook on and give me something to focus on. Something that has always made sense.

As Kissinger once said: 'De Nile is not only a river in Africa...'


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## Michi (Feb 6, 2021)

I think another factor that plays into that is just naked fear. Quite a lot of people react to that with denial. "If we pretend that everything is just fine, it'll be fine."


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## LostHighway (Feb 6, 2021)

_"Misunderstandings and lethargy perhaps produce more wrong in the world than deceit and malice do. At least the latter two are certainly rarer." _
Goethe


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## Bill13 (Feb 10, 2021)

"Two Swedish investigating media groups have exposed a group that deliberately spread misinformation to international media in efforts to discredit the Swedish Corona strategy. They have succeeded with this in Time, Science, Washington Post, among others. https://t.co/L73FqheRwY" / Twitter 



(20) Johan Hellström  on Twitter: "This is a textbook example of an article written by @Ro_Smith that is collecting his information from members of this group. https://t.co/1dkejc1PuY" / Twitter


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## Matus (Feb 10, 2021)

I have no horses in this race and as someone distant to the politics of Swedish Corona response - I find it hard to judge statements on Twitter - even if made by someone with authority on the topic ...


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## DrEriksson (Feb 11, 2021)

I doubt that a group on Facebook was able to change national statistics. I also doubt that they coerced the state epidemiologist to say both that we can’t compare our numbers to Norway and that our numbers are better than Norway.

Reminds me of another example where Spider-Man is used. If someone finds a Spider-Man magazine in 2000 years it doesn’t prove that Spider-Man was real just because they might prove that NY was/is real. Each claim must be evaluated based on the evidence for the specific claim. Finding one group with clandestine plans criticizing Sweden does not falsify all criticism.


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## Keith Sinclair (Feb 12, 2021)

Looks like Aussies & New Zealand did something right. I remember early on people in denial in USA used Sweden as example of not shutting down and doing fine. 

Just watched a show on how China covered up that it was person to person spread. They even let Chinese New Year with a lot of travel go on in those early days. They thought they could contain it. Of coarse when they realized it was similar to Sars that could cause organ damage & death to some they locked down wuhan. It was not quite as deadly as Sars but much more contagious. Now it's said that new strains are emerging that are even more contagious.

In Hawaii we are getting better than much of the country esp. since health care & essential workers, age 75 & up have been getting their shots. I'm in the 65-75 we go next.

I will say though these shutdowns have been brutal to our economy.


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## Michi (Feb 12, 2021)

Keith Sinclair said:


> Looks like Aussies & New Zealand did something right. I remember early on people in denial in USA used Sweden as example of not shutting down and doing fine.


Well, we are paying a high price. Yesterday, all of Victoria went into a five-day lock-down. The UK variant got loose in one of the quarantine hotels and, unfortunately, made its way to a cafe at Melbourne airport. Now they are trying to put the lid back on and contact trace 1,500 people, some of whom have since flown inter-state. Only about a dozen cases so far. The next few days will tell whether we'll manage yet again to contain it.


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## big_adventure (Feb 12, 2021)

Michi said:


> Well, we are paying a high price. Yesterday, all of Victoria went into a five-day lock-down. The UK variant got loose in one of the quarantine hotels and, unfortunately, made its way to a cafe at Melbourne airport. Now they are trying to put the lid back on and contact trace 1,500 people, some of whom have since flown inter-state. Only about a dozen cases so far. The next few days will tell whether we'll manage yet again to contain it.



Given the hardball you guys have played so far, I'd bet on you.


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## big_adventure (Feb 12, 2021)

Keith Sinclair said:


> Looks like Aussies & New Zealand did something right. I remember early on people in denial in USA used Sweden as example of not shutting down and doing fine.
> 
> Just watched a show on how China covered up that it was person to person spread. They even let Chinese New Year with a lot of travel go on in those early days. They thought they could contain it. Of coarse when they realized it was similar to Sars that could cause organ damage & death to some they locked down wuhan. It was not quite as deadly as Sars but much more contagious. Now it's said that new strains are emerging that are even more contagious.
> 
> ...



Honestly, the US is doing really well on the vaccination front compared to the rest of the world, and much better over the last few weeks. That doesn't mean perfectly, but pretty well, and getting better. Basically, the UK and Israel are doing better, everywhere else is doing worse. Here in Europe, we're just screwed completely. I can count on my vaccine sometime in 2022. Maybe.


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## danemonji (Feb 13, 2021)

Michi said:


> Well, we are paying a high price. Yesterday, all of Victoria went into a five-day lock-down. The UK variant got loose in one of the quarantine hotels and, unfortunately, made its way to a cafe at Melbourne airport. Now they are trying to put the lid back on and contact trace 1,500 people, some of whom have since flown inter-state. Only about a dozen cases so far. The next few days will tell whether we'll manage yet again to contain it.


Hope Australia will manage to keep it isolated. But the solution seems to be banning outside travel until this is over.
Again and again we are shown that people can't follow simple rules and the rest of the society pay the price. Some don't understand the concept of quarantine or the seriousness of the situation. Once the virus gets loose it's hard to contain it. Especially if people are realxed and think it is not a threat.


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## Michi (Feb 13, 2021)

danemonji said:


> Hope Australia will manage to keep it isolated. But the solution seems to be banning outside travel until this is over.


I don't believe that's an option, even though it would be helpful. There are still tens of thousands of Australians overseas who are trying to get home. And, as far as I know, Australia can't lock out its own citizens; doing so would be in breach of international law.


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## Keith Sinclair (Feb 13, 2021)

Their were quite a few Samoans in Hawaii that had to stay here for a year because not allowed to return. Pacific Islanders had the highest rate of infection. Partly because many live in multi generation family units. Rates went up during Thanksgiving, Christmas, & New Year. Plenty of illegal ariels & other fireworks. New Year is huge.


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## JaVa (Feb 13, 2021)

Finlands done pretty well in all of this in my book. If we look at it purely how the pandemic has been contained. In a country of 5.5 million people, with the second wave in full effect, atm we have only about 400 new cases of witch about 100 are hospitalized and 18 are in intensive care. We just came out of the Christmas holiday season when there was a lot of traveling in the country, contrary to expectations it had almost no effect on those numbers.

But the government is getting a lot of critique of making overly harsh decision compared to the existing situation. Because of that there is much concern that financially we'll be severely held back and it might take a lot longer for us to recover than our Scandinavian neighbors. Though that only remains to be seen of course. But if you think about it. If we get out of this this faster due to good control containing the pandemic that should help get back on track faster too. But who knows?

Seems it really doesn't matter what the government decides it's always wrong. Take serious actions and it's overkill that's destroying the economy. Take a softer approach and you don't care about the people. Ya just can't win?


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## big_adventure (Feb 13, 2021)

Michi said:


> I don't believe that's an option, even though it would be helpful. There are still tens of thousands of Australians overseas who are trying to get home. And, as far as I know, Australia can't lock out its own citizens; doing so would be in breach of international law.



They can't lock them out, but they could whip up some truly draconian testing and quarantine restrictions. This is what France just did here: we aren't allowed to leave the EU or to come back from outside the EU without restrictions. If you are already outside the EU, no worries, you can come home and be free with a handful of negative tests. But now, we can't leave without documented good reasons. Sucks for me, I had two trips cancelled (I wouldn't have been around anyone, so no covid risks) this week and next.

Well, then one of my sons was a contact case at school, he tested positive on Thursday, the rest of us were tested, and my other son is also positive. No symptoms, and my daughter and I are negative.


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## Michi (Feb 13, 2021)

Things are similar here. Australians are not allowed to leave the country, by and large. Travel for business reasons is possible, but I have no idea how strictly the criteria are applied. And, of course, on return, people are faced with a two-week mandatory quarantine at their own expense. (Last time I checked, that was AUD 3000.00 per person.)


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## big_adventure (Feb 13, 2021)

Michi said:


> Things are similar here. Australians are not allowed to leave the country, by and large. Travel for business reasons is possible, but I have no idea how strictly the criteria are applied. And, of course, on return, people are faced with a two-week mandatory quarantine at their own expense. (Last time I checked, that was AUD 3000.00 per person.)



That's a decent plan, in my book. Here, we had effectively no limits at all until two weeks ago. Many other countries refused us (I have 2 passports, France and US, and both were damn near useless for travel without business or health crisis justification), but we had no limits. Even the isolation upon return was voluntary.


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## MarcelNL (Feb 13, 2021)

For France I believe the travel from within EU is also a bit more difficult, I checked last week and coming into the country you need a negative PCR and a 7 day quarantine, going out returning to where I live another PCR and a 10 day quarantine....nobody is checking quarantines though...weird..


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## preizzo (Feb 13, 2021)

There is so much bad information about this all over the world.
My family in Italy time to times call me asking me how is going on in Sweden because they have ear that so many people are dieing 
Wrong ,numbers are high yes but can't compare them to others country .
Sweden is in the middle of the storm because we choose a different approach and others don't like it .
I have traveled to Italy last September and people In Italy don't respect any distances or mask or any of the rules there are right now there .
In Sweden people are more respectful 

People are starving because of this lock down strategy in Italy ,many many companies are closed,family loosing jobs and no helps from the government , lock downs are generating more problems than what is actually .


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## MarcelNL (Feb 13, 2021)

the problem as I see it is that COVID has serious risks and there is no easy solution, the best solution probably is somewhere between the two extremes.


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## big_adventure (Feb 13, 2021)

MarcelNL said:


> For France I believe the travel from within EU is also a bit more difficult, I checked last week and coming into the country you need a negative PCR and a 7 day quarantine, going out returning to where I live another PCR and a 10 day quarantine....nobody is checking quarantines though...weird..



Yeah, the only issue would be if you were stopped by the police for something else when you were supposed to be isolating I suppose.


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## big_adventure (Feb 13, 2021)

preizzo said:


> There is so much bad information about this all over the world.
> My family in Italy time to times call me asking me how is going on in Sweden because they have ear that so many people are dieing
> Wrong ,numbers are high yes but can't compare them to others country .
> Sweden is in the middle of the storm because we choose a different approach and others don't like it .
> ...



Eh, a few things there.

1. A lot of the "people are starving" and "many companies are closed" stuff is exaggerated. This isn't uncommon, of course, but there are factors that magnify issues during crisis. The media is a business, and it needs to sell papers/airtime/click ads. Nobody ever bought the paper or watched the show that said "almost everything is perfect, don't worry about it." So the only things people read are about how bad things are.

2. No help from the government, again, is exaggerated: there are many government programs helping people who are out of work or who are temporarily furloughed due to pandemic response.

None of that is to say that there aren't problems: there are! It's impossible to have a society of 60 million people and have none of them fall into cracks, and corruption definitely exists.

On the other hand, you are right that most western European countries are piss poor at respecting social distancing and rules meant to safeguard people. I imagine that part of this is that most of these countries: France, Germany, Italy, Spain as examples, reacted a bit slowly but quite decisively early on, going to pretty full lockdowns. Once the virus toll dropped significantly, we all opened back up. Thing is, in most of these places, many people distrust the government from the comfy chair of safety. They don't have the Rona, they don't know anyone who has died of it, so they don't want to give back the "freedoms" that were already lost and recovered. And they know that saying things isn't going to be punished (and shouldn't be...) I've literally heard friends saying that all of the covid response is BS, it's all just a ploy to... I'm not kidding you... screw over young people by not letting them have fun. I try to explain that the LAST thing the government wants is angry youths with nothing to do but be angrier, and oh-by-the-way not paying taxes and not supporting the economy... but no, it's all a plot.


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## Bill13 (Mar 13, 2021)

Recommended by Michael Levitt, a brilliant Stanford professor and 2013 Chemistry Nobel Laureate. He is fun to follow on twitter, really. https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013

Final Report on Swedish Mortality 2020, Anno Covidius | systems perestroika – éminence grise (wordpress.com)


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## Bill13 (Mar 15, 2021)




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## Michi (Mar 16, 2021)

In terms of cases per million population, Sweden currently ranks at #16, with a little over 70,000. That's not that much better than the US, which ranks at #8, with a little over 90,000.

In terms of deaths per million population, Sweden ranks at #25, with just under 1,300. The US ranks at #11, with just under 1,650.

That's not a particularly good track record, I'd say. For example, Germany ranks at #72 and #43 for cases and deaths, and Norway ranks at #105 and #116.

The Swedish approach doesn't exactly look like a rip-roaring success to me.


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## DavidPF (Mar 16, 2021)

Michi said:


> The Swedish approach doesn't exactly look like a rip-roaring success to me.


(The use of statistics that merely show it wasn't as extreme a failure as popularly supposed, and that studiously avoid labelling it a success, would appear to be a pretty strong indication that you're right.)


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## LostHighway (Mar 16, 2021)

I'm absolutely shocked that Anders Tegnell still has a job. Dr. Fauci definitely made some judgement gaffs in the early months of the pandemic but at least he didn't double down on his mistakes.


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## Nemo (Mar 16, 2021)

Just a reminder that while the mods are allowing a little leeway with CV19 related discussions, outright polilitical commentary is not permitted.

A couple of recent comments have walked right up to the line. Maybe over it.

I really don't wanna have to do anything about this so please tone it down a bit.


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## SeattleBen (Mar 18, 2021)

Michi said:


> About as superb as Linus Pauling—another Nobel prize winner—who decided that, because he knew chemistry, he also knew medicine. After all, how hard could it possibly be? He quite likely killed his wife with his crackpot theories.



Thank you so much for this read!


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## Michi (May 13, 2021)

Nemo said:


> outright polilitical commentary


On a non-polilitical note (sorry, I couldn't resist  ), this experiment seems to be working out sterlingly.

In terms of cases per million population, Sweden can now boast of the remarkable achievement of having reached #9 in the world rankings. That is actually one spot ahead of the United States, which managed 100,958 cases per million, compared to Sweden's 101,239 cases per million. Outstanding effort, I think. Especially considering that the other countries ahead of Sweden (besides Czechia) don't have populations that would fill an even half-respectable city.

My heart-felt congratulations go to both Sweden and the United States for their outstanding achievement!

Of course, neither country stands a chance in a race that, judging by the pundits, will be handily won by India


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## Corradobrit1 (May 13, 2021)

And it appears the baddest of the bad Indian variant is now spreading in certain urban areas of the UK. If this gets a hold I doubt the full opening on June 21st is going to happen.


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## Michi (May 13, 2021)

Corradobrit1 said:


> And it appears the baddest of the bad Indian variant is now spreading in certain urban areas of the UK. If this gets a hold I doubt the full opening on June 21st is going to happen.


Having followed a lot of the science, my feeling right now is that we have already lost, in the sense that we will not get back to a world without a Damocles sword of disease hanging over everyone; at least not for many generations.

With our vaccination efforts, we are putting enormous selection pressure on the virus. And the virus replicates in a matter of hours, compared to a human lifespan that is measured in decades. Meaning that any selection pressure that the virus exerts on humans will not take effect for many generations, whereas the virus can adapt to changing circumstances in a matter of weeks.

The most likely future seems to be one where the virus is endemic everywhere on Earth, with us producing new versions of the vaccine every year (much like we do with flu vaccines), and where we accept for at least the next few decades that it is inevitable that we lose some percentage of the population to the virus each year.

I know this isn't pretty. But I suspect that it is realistic.


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## Michi (May 13, 2021)

Michi said:


> I don't believe that's an option, even though it would be helpful. There are still tens of thousands of Australians overseas who are trying to get home. And, as far as I know, Australia can't lock out its own citizens; doing so would be in breach of international law.


Australia recently set a worrying precedent, having decided to lock out its own citizens if they want to get back from India. With the threat of massive fines and imprisonment.

This did not go down well politically, and the government has been back-pedalling on this with remarkable speed in the past ten days or so.

Regardless, Australia _did_ lock out its own citizens, international law or not. I live and learn…


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## big_adventure (May 13, 2021)

Michi said:


> Australia recently set a worrying precedent, having decided to lock out its own citizens if they want to get back from India. With the threat of massive fines and imprisonment.
> 
> This did not go down well politically, and the government has been back-pedalling on this with remarkable speed in the past ten days or so.
> 
> Regardless, Australia _did_ lock out its own citizens, international law or not. I live and learn…



Didn't Australia start out last year with like 6 leaders in 2 months or something? Maybe the government is just shell-shocked, or maybe the people in charge were just the ones who were left in the building, and don't know about things like "International Law" and stuff. 

I kid, I kid - I love Australia, spent 6 months there 21 years ago.


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## Michi (May 13, 2021)

big_adventure said:


> Didn't Australia start out last year with like 6 leaders in 2 months or something?


No, not that any Australians would have noticed, anyway.

I can sort of sympathise with the government's position, in the sense that keeping infected people from arriving is a very effective way to protect the country. There is just this knotty problem of these people being Australians and that, if they are prevented form entering their own country, they are effectively made stateless. That's not a good look.


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## Corradobrit1 (May 13, 2021)

Michi said:


> No, not that any Australians would have noticed, anyway.
> 
> I can sort of sympathise with the government's position, in the sense that keeping infected people from arriving is a very effective way to protect the country. There is just this knotty problem of these people being Australians and that, if they are prevented form entering their own country, they are effectively made stateless. That's not a good look.


I thought they were dealing with that with draconian quarantining rules in special hotels and segregated zones.


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## inferno (May 13, 2021)

its pretty draconian in sweden too imo. bars and restaurants have to close at 8 or 9. only 50 or so people can be in the same place at once. 
its recommended you wear a face mask when on a bus or train. etc etc etc.


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## preizzo (May 13, 2021)

inferno said:


> its pretty draconian in sweden too imo. bars and restaurants have to close at 8 or 9. only 50 or so people can be in the same place at once.
> its recommended you wear a face mask when on a bus or train. etc etc etc.



Bar and restaurant have to close at 8,30 that means that at that time no one have to be inside (only stuff working is aloud) government have raccomended to wear a face mask on busses and trains in the busy hours (still is not obligatory) restaurants or bars inside shop moal aren't aloud to have more then one person sitting at the table.


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## inferno (May 13, 2021)

preizzo said:


> Bar and restaurant have to close at 8,30 that means that at that time no one have to be inside (only stuff working is aloud) government have raccomended to wear a face mask on busses and trains in the busy hours (still is not obligatory) restaurants or bars inside shop moal aren't aloud to have more then one person sitting at the table.



exactly! its fukn draconian!

i remember back just before christmas. we were out with the job, basically the whole division from the floor. getting drunk and eating and there was so few people in the restaurant. at max 50. but we managed to get drunk and have fun anyway. but it would have been a whole lot more fun with more people there. 

i ****ing hate this corona ****. dafuq. we should all chip in and ****ing nuke c***a for this!


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## MarcelNL (May 13, 2021)

Michi said:


> On a non-polilitical note (sorry, I couldn't resist  ), this experiment seems to be working out sterlingly.
> 
> In terms of cases per million population, Sweden can now boast of the remarkable achievement of having reached #9 in the world rankings. That is actually one spot ahead of the United States, which managed 100,958 cases per million, compared to Sweden's 101,239 cases per million. Outstanding effort, I think. Especially considering that the other countries ahead of Sweden (besides Czechia) don't have populations that would fill an even half-respectable city.
> 
> ...



I agree, thumbs up for that achievement! The number of cases MAY be confounded by the number of tests done per million, I'm not sure there are numbers corrected for that?


There probably will (or already are) be some runner ups in the form of countries that deny the existence of COVID or do not test/count at all...there is no real reason for any one country except a few real isolated places to steer clear from Covid and IMO the ultimate number (also indicative of level of healthcare) is severely ill/ICU cases and mortality


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## inferno (May 13, 2021)

MarcelNL said:


> I agree, thumbs up for that achievement! The number of cases MAY be confounded by the number of tests done per million, I'm not sure there are numbers corrected for that?
> 
> 
> There probably will (or already are) be some runner ups in the form of countries that deny the existence of COVID or do not test/count at all...there is no real reason for any one country except a few real isolated places to steer clear from Covid and IMO the ultimate number (also indicative of level of healthcare) is severely ill/ICU cases and mortality



in turkmenistan there is no covid! 

basically what turkmenistan did was outlaw the words covid19 and coronavirus. and therefore there is no coronavirus in turkmenistan. 
completely genious thinking right there!


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## MarcelNL (May 13, 2021)

That was indeed one of the countries I had in mind! Though there are a few more, like Tanzania. More important than the covid denouncers are those where testing/treatment is largely non existing. It's highly unlikely that the virus cannot affect the people in a few countries, it's more likely a matter of time that anyone gets infected than that that it is a question if you get infected unless we find cures line vaccination that prevent spreading of the virus


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## M1k3 (May 13, 2021)

How's Belarus doing in this race since Turkmenistan decided it's not even going to be in it?


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## Keith Sinclair (May 13, 2021)

Michi just spent about an hour reading your posting about Linus Pauling . His wife was smart too as their kids imagine having parents like that. 

Pauling may have been wrong about mega dose of vitamin C curing cancer, but his contributions to science leading others to decode DNA are history of a brilliant mind.


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## Michi (May 14, 2021)

Keith Sinclair said:


> Pauling may have been wrong about mega dose of vitamin C curing cancer, but his contributions to science leading others to decode DNA are history of a brilliant mind.


Sure thing. Nobel prizes don’t come in cornflakes packets. But this nicely illustrates the fallacy of argument from authority. If someone has a Nobel prize, that does not mean that everything they say is right, especially when they are outside their area of expertise.

I wouldn’t go and ask Higgs (physics Nobel winner) for advice on yoga, and I wouldn’t ask Swami Sivananda (renowned yoga guru) questions about particle physics.

Any statement along the lines of “Nobel prize winner Higgs recommends Vinyasa Flow over Hatha yoga” carries no more weight than the average Joe’s opinion, simply because the Nobel prize is irrelevant in that context.


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## Keith Sinclair (May 14, 2021)

Well you know those particle physics guys were tripping with the realization that matter is mostly space held together with different atoms & molecular bonds. 

Swami like Ramana Maharshi lived in a state of all is one, not as a concept rather total immersive experience. Not so far removed from particle physics.


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## Carl Kotte (May 14, 2021)

Michi said:


> Sure thing. Nobel prizes don’t come in cornflakes packets. But this nicely illustrates the fallacy of argument from authority. If someone has a Nobel prize, that does not mean that everything they say is right, especially when they are outside their area of expertise.
> 
> I wouldn’t go and ask Higgs (physics Nobel winner) for advice on yoga, and I wouldn’t ask Swami Sivananda (renowned yoga guru) questions about particle physics.
> 
> Any statement along the lines of “Nobel prize winner Higgs recommends Vinyasa Flow over Hatha yoga” carries no more weight than the average Joe’s opinion, simply because the Nobel prize is irrelevant in that context.


But you can always ask Beige Lion for everything. The answers will often be of low quality, but there will be answers. I’m sdill sdanding after all this time (since 1731 or so.)


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## MarcelNL (May 14, 2021)

In my country we have our fair share of experts in some totally unrelated field talking on TV about everything around Covid and then some, aparently mostly for the reason of 5 more minutes of fame, extracting controverse by TV makers, or simply being available...it would be so nice if they would stick to discussing their own expertise or f.e. sports


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## big_adventure (May 14, 2021)

Has anyone seen the story out of the Seychelles? Very sad, but kind of funny. They have the highest vaccination rate in the world.

Buuuuuuuut...

The majority are vaccinated with the Sinopharm vaccine from China. You know, the one that the Chinese neglected to release testing data for, just saying "dude, this totally works!!" Apparently that's an Aliexpress special, because many people vaccinated with it are coming down with Covid. Who knew that discount, drop ship products from China might not give the buyer exactly what they expect?

As much as "which vaccine" doesn't really matter in Europe or North America, it really _does _matter everywhere else in the world.


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## big_adventure (May 14, 2021)

MarcelNL said:


> In my country we have our fair share of experts in some totally unrelated field talking on TV about everything around Covid and then some, aparently mostly for the reason of 5 more minutes of fame, extracting controverse by TV makers, or simply being available...it would be so nice if they would stick to discussing their own expertise or f.e. sports



The issue isn't the talkers, it's the listeners. The news, whether print, internet or television, is a media that, for all the good it does, also needs ratings/sales to make/not lose too much money. And nobody ever bought a newspaper that says "everything is great, nothing to see here." A bit of critical thinking is, you know, critical, when considering the news. Sadly, critical thinking is just _not _that critical for a lot of people.

Even for people it should be. When I had Covid a few months ago, I had a high fever for a couple of days, but it was a fever that responded to ibuprofen. I only had a little, so I attempted to purchase some from the pharmacy. Way back in March 2020, Olivier Veran, our completely idiotic tool of a health minister, proclaimed loudly, based on zero evidence, that ibuprofen was bad with Covid, and could lead to harmful side effects. Thing is, this was proven false in more than 100 independent studies in more than 50 countries. But the goon behind the counter at the pharmacy had heard Veran say that, and had apparently just buried her head in the sand for the ensuing 12 months, despite this being her job, and insisted that she couldn't sell it to me, because it would cause serious side effects with the rona. II explained, showed data, including French and European guidelines specifically recommending ibuprofen to treat covid symptoms. Nope, nada, couldn't buy that. 

I just had to go to a different pharmacy, the guy there had no issues taking my money.


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## MarcelNL (May 14, 2021)

agree that the media are largely driven by their audience's hunger for gore and there is no exam for being a member if the audience...

Ibuprofen, isn't that OTC in France too? Supermarkets sell it over here.


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## M1k3 (May 14, 2021)

MarcelNL said:


> In my country we have our fair share of experts in some totally unrelated field talking on TV about everything around Covid and then some, aparently mostly for the reason of 5 more minutes of fame, extracting controverse by TV makers, or simply being available...it would be so nice if they would stick to discussing their own expertise or f.e. sports


America? Because this sounds like America.


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## MarcelNL (May 14, 2021)

M1k3 said:


> America? Because this sounds like America.


Nope, Netherlands, but TV resembles TV in America more and more by the year, one more reason not to watch much of it.


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## big_adventure (May 14, 2021)

MarcelNL said:


> agree that the media are largely driven by their audience's hunger for gore and there is no exam for being a member if the audience...
> 
> Ibuprofen, isn't that OTC in France too? Supermarkets sell it over here.



It's OTC, but in France, all meds, even OTC, are sold through pharmacies basically exclusively. And even ibuprofen or paracetemol are behind the counter, and therefore require speaking to a pharmacist who may or may not actually know their ass from a hole in the ground. The one in question clearly did not. You should just be able to request it, but the idiot with the degree behind the counter has the right to refuse you because... reasons.


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## Luftmensch (May 14, 2021)

Michi said:


> And, as far as I know, Australia can't lock out its own citizens; doing so would be in breach of international law.



Oh @Michi... how young and naive we all were back in February!


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## Michi (May 14, 2021)

Luftmensch said:


> Oh @Michi... how young and naive we all were back in February!


Too true


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## Keith Sinclair (May 15, 2021)

I remember back in 1979 was in London visiting a couple had met when they were living in Hawaii mid 70's. I couldn't believe English TV. Little did I know that good old Anglo Saxon
Lowest Common Denominator TV would hit America later. Thanks in part to that Aussie Rupert Murdoch. I do appreciate fox sports they carry the less popular in America things like world surfing, cycling tours, F1 grad prix.


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## Michi (May 15, 2021)

Bill13 said:


> Recommended by Michael Levitt, a brilliant Stanford professor and 2013 Chemistry Nobel Laureate. He is fun to follow on twitter, really. https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013
> 
> Final Report on Swedish Mortality 2020, Anno Covidius | systems perestroika – éminence grise (wordpress.com)


After this thread has undergone some quite heavy-handed editing by the moderators, I suggest to read the Wikipedia entry on Michael Levitt.


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## MarcelNL (May 15, 2021)

@ mods: I wish there would be an indication of mods editing with a brief explanation, I understand there may be reasons to moderate but would like to be able to understand the reasoning behind it when it goes further than editing out some foul language. Editing without explanation is the beginning of totaliarism ;-)


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## daveb (May 15, 2021)

*MarcelNL
professional blame taker*


It's all your fault.


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## Michi (May 15, 2021)

daveb said:


> *MarcelNL
> professional blame taker*
> 
> 
> It's all your fault.


I honestly don't get the meaning of that post.


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## big_adventure (May 15, 2021)

Michi said:


> I honestly don't get the meaning of that post.



Play on @MarcelNL 's flavor text - he's a "Professional Blame Taker" and he'd just, one post up, asked for a mod explanation for the edits. So @daveb just said it was his fault.


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## MarcelNL (May 15, 2021)

daveb said:


> *MarcelNL
> professional blame taker*
> 
> 
> It's all your fault.


I did not see that one coming!  

still, even if it was my fault I wanna know WHAT my fault was...usually I get ample explanation why I am to blame.


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## Michi (May 15, 2021)

big_adventure said:


> Play on @MarcelNL 's flavor text - he's a "Professional Blame Taker"


Ah yes, I missed that


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## MarcelNL (May 18, 2021)

the good news is starting to spread (pun intended); Denmark opening up, infection rate R going down to well under 1 ( around 0.7 0,.8) in many (EU) countries...I'd say vaccination works.


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## Barmoley (May 18, 2021)

Vaccination plus many people getting it and recovering. Combination of these definitely works like for most other infectious diseases. What is really odd is that many older, at risk people are refusing to take the vaccine. At least I know a few.


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## MarcelNL (May 19, 2021)

in my country the 'at risk' (not the high risk) population was invited starting early May, about 50% actually got vaccinated/responded


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## big_adventure (May 19, 2021)

MarcelNL said:


> in my country the 'at risk' (not the high risk) population was invited starting early May, about 50% actually got vaccinated/responded



We're doomed, we humans. Doomed.


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## Keith Sinclair (May 19, 2021)

Here after over a year with no tourist the rental car companies sold their fleets. Now tourist coming in hard to get cars & they cost a fortune to rent. My Nephew who works as FBI agent is coming to Hawaii for honeymoon with
His beautiful wife from Ukraine. Said he couldn't get a rent car at all, told him no worry can use my 6 speed manual Forrester.

He loves Hawaii when he was around 14 years old I took him surfing he did pretty well first time. After that came back two more times on his own.


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## Bart.s (May 22, 2021)

Keith Sinclair said:


> Here after over a year with no tourist the rental car companies sold their fleets. Now tourist coming in hard to get cars & they cost a fortune to rent. My Nephew who works as FBI agent is coming to Hawaii for honeymoon with
> His beautiful wife from Ukraine. Said he couldn't get a rent car at all, told him no worry can use my 6 speed manual Forrester.
> 
> He loves Hawaii when he was around 14 years old I took him surfing he did pretty well first time. After that came back two more times on his own.



Does the Hawaii economy depend on much on tourism? Just interested.


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## Keith Sinclair (May 22, 2021)

Yes for years been talking of more balance, but most talk little action. Since sugar is gone & pineapple no longer a force, tourism has taken over. The old sugar land is turned into residential & development because that's were the money is. The tunnels drilled through the Koolau mt. range when sugar was king still bring water to central plains. Talk of planting sugarcane again for biofuel is a terrible idea.
It should be used for farming, plant orchard trees for fruit. Some farming provides a portion 
of food Hawaii eats, but by far most is shipped 
In.


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## BillHanna (May 22, 2021)

Do you think the lack of farming is due to impatience on ROI?


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## Bart.s (May 22, 2021)

I would guess there is more money in tourism than farming. @Keith Sinclair , Did Hawaii suffer because of lack of tourism because of the pandemic?


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## Keith Sinclair (May 22, 2021)

Absolutely many small business went under for good. Government lost much of it's tax base they love to tax the tourist. Small business couldn't pay rent & taxes. Largest bakery 150 years in Hawaii closed down for good. 

It's true most people don't want to be farmers.
There are programs getting kids to learn to grow gardens, take care of old fish ponds. Some are being put back to use after years of neglect. I totally support these actions. All are local kids many part Hawaiian. That land has to be saved from development. Oahu has actually been losing population because it's too expensive to live here. Most move to mainland USA.


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## Keith Sinclair (May 23, 2021)

Hawaii has reputation of a great place to live for the ultra wealthy. 

It is 4th state in USA with per capa households with at least 1 million dollars. 

A few of the billionaires with property & live at least part time in Hawaii

Oracle CEO Larry Ellison owns 98% of island of Lanai 59 billion.

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg hundreds of acres on Kauai worth many billions

Gordon Moore cofounder of Intel 7.5 billion

Robson Walton Chairman WalMart stores that have become very popular in Hawaii. 38.3 billion.

Michael Dell / Dell computers Maui, Big Island 23.2 billion
(Note) my best friend Richard Ito's brother a farmer on Maui bought Dell stock decades ago when it was cheap made him a millionaire.

Pierre Oymidyar founder E-Bay 9.6 billion Oahu

Charles Schwab 8.4 billion Big Island

Oprah Winfrey 3 billion Maui

Andrew & Peggy Chenring founders Panda Enterprisers 3.3 billion Oahu

David Murdock Dole food, Castle & Cooke 2.8 billion Oahu

Many millionaires in Hawaii from all over.
In 70's, 80's, 90's it was Japanese with suitcases of cash buying houses. 

Now it's Chinese several houses on our street have been bought by Chinese. One we knew well the Father had built the house had some nice custom carpentry. 6 bedrooms 5 bathrooms lots of girls in that family. When old man died one of sister's lived with husband in house. Other two sisters equal owners in house. At first thinking of buying out sister's & renting to help pay mortgage over time. Decided to sell instead got 1.3 million for house. I heard Chinese workers clearing out front yard of all trees & plants had a big dumpster. They covered front area with concrete so could park more cars.


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## Bart.s (May 23, 2021)

Keith Sinclair said:


> Absolutely many small business went under for good. Government lost much of it's tax base they love to tax the tourist. Small business couldn't pay rent & taxes. Largest bakery 150 years in Hawaii closed down for good.
> 
> It's true most people don't want to be farmers.
> There are programs getting kids to learn to grow gardens, take care of old fish ponds. Some are being put back to use after years of neglect. I totally support these actions. All are local kids many part Hawaiian. That land has to be saved from development. Oahu has actually been losing population because it's too expensive to live here. Most move to mainland USA.



Indeed sad to see that so many businesses went under because of this. Here, from what I get from the news, the amount of businesses going bankrupt is still quite low. Number can go up though, when the governmentsupport stops. This is especially true for bars and restaurants.


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## LostHighway (May 25, 2021)

Michi said:


> After this thread has undergone some quite heavy-handed editing by the moderators, I suggest to read the Wikipedia entry on Michael Levitt.



Levitt redux


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