# Preparing for COVID-19



## lowercasebill

Share how you are planning.
Share what you have or have done
Ask questions.
Give answers 
There is a lot of collective wisdom from all over the globe here now is the time to use it.


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## McMan

This is when I hope there are a few MPH on the forum... or a few MD.


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## lowercasebill

In response to how long i can last..
I have a water filter 3 bge a palate of lump 2 propane burners chords of fire wood and access to 2 Asian markets. I have mylar storage bags i can store as much rice as i want for pocket change
I can grow greens in the basement 
Or garden 
I am well versesd and have the stuff to lacto ferment 100's of pounds of veg per year 
3 yrs ago i made 400 lbs of sauerkraut. 
My son owns enough land that i can. garden and raise chickens for the family his girlfriends family has 14 acres of unused tillable land 
I am am experienced gardener. .
Living in a metropolitan burb the local grocery stores offerd online shopping or online and you pick up. Actually my biggest concern is gasoline and collapse of infrastructure. As long as i have gas and water i will be fine. And while coal is frowned upon i can get a coal stove and a truck load of coal. 
But first i have to get over the flu


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## WildBoar

I don't see utilities being an issue in thew DC area. City water and sewer will be fine, as will electricity and natural gas. Maybe if a bad storm blows through and takes out power lines there could be an issue of there not being enough repair workers, but that's reaching a bit. food-wise I doubt we will see an issue either. My son is 46 lbs now, so he should last my wife and I for a while.


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## bahamaroot

Living life as usual, if it gets me it gets me...


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## cheflife15

Isn't this all an over reaction? Im under the impression its no worse than the flu? Just extremely contagious


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## chinacats

bahamaroot said:


> Living life as usual, if it gets me it gets me...



Pretty much this...the stress over it could be worse for your health than the virus itself...


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## bkultra

Wash hands and go on with life.


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## MontezumaBoy

WildBoar said:


> My son is 46 lbs now, so he should last my wife and I for a while.



David - I think you should post this in the sous vide section ... I'm thinking basil creme sauce with a nice Chianti ...


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## WildBoar

Mmmm, that does sound worth consideration.


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## CiderBear

WildBoar said:


> I don't see utilities being an issue in thew DC area. City water and sewer will be fine, as will electricity and natural gas. Maybe if a bad storm blows through and takes out power lines there could be an issue of there not being enough repair workers, but that's reaching a bit. food-wise I doubt we will see an issue either. My son is 46 lbs now, so he should last my wife and I for a while.



I just need to buy more handsanitizer and I couldn't find anything. I live in DC too


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## Kippington

bkultra said:


> Wash hands and go on with life.


I saw a guy on the train with a face mask on, but he was also grabbing the train handrails all over. Like dude, if you don't want to get sick you got your priorities all wrong...


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## ian

Raleighcook15 said:


> Isn't this all an over reaction? Im under the impression its no worse than the flu? Just extremely contagious



More contagious, and from what I read some amount (7-20 times, iirc?) more deadly. Not “Seven Days Later” or “Contagion”, but something to at least keep track of. Incidentally, I noticed that Contagion is one of the most popular video rentals on Amazon atm.



Kippington said:


> I saw a guy on the train with a face mask on, but he was also grabbing the train handrails all over. Like dude, if you don't want to get sick you got your priorities all wrong...



At least the face mask then gets in the way of his hand when he tries to touch his face. I’ve been wondering if they actually could be useful for that reason.


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## minibatataman

I'm not an MD, just a medical student. While yes it is basically just a bad flu, 2% mortality is roughly 20 times as lethal as @ian said, so while there's no reason to panic, one should be prepared.
Wash your hands hourly, avoid too much contact with people and public surfaces, face masks can help, but as long as everyone sneezes into their elbows and avoid spraying it around it should be fine. Do not use disposable gloves because you're less likely to regularly wash your hands then, so they're actually less hygienic. Keep an eye on your temperature and any symptoms exhibited, CALL your GP if you're showing a fever and respiratory issues. Self quarantine is effective.
Remember, the virus can not survive without a host. Basic measures like this are enough in most cases. If your partner exhibits signs, remain 7 feet away from them for a few days to monitor the situation, beyond that, there isn't much you need or even should do. I'd suggest in more affected areas like Washington or northern Italy or Southeast Asia to stock up on basics and food. There's no shortage but people are doing what they do best, panicking, so they end up stocking up and causing the shortage themselves (here in Limburg in the south of Netherlands it's starting to happen due to the affected areas in Germany being so close)
But either way, do not worry, but take it seriously and be prepared, better safe than sorry.


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## ian

One extra idea: we should all get more sleep! Better for our immune systems and for our general mental health.

(Yes, it's 5:30 am here... what do you want.)


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## ma_sha1

Got some surgical masks coming that’s it, No food stocking. 

Panic stocking of others may force a diet on me, & finally loose that 10 lb my Dr. had asked me to.


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## Dhoff

Live life. I'm the wrong age group to be worried.


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## Chuckles

So we set out to make a list of things to buy to make it a month of home quarantine if needed. Then I look at the list and it includes things that we have had easily gone a year without using. Funny how you ‘need’ some things when looking a month out but don’t need them on any given day or week.


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## WildBoar

minibatataman said:


> Remember, the virus can not survive without a host.


I thought the virus could live up to 9 days without a host. Has that been proven to no longer be the case?


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## ian

WildBoar said:


> I thought the virus could live up to 9 days without a host. Has that been proven to no longer be the case?



From what I’ve read, previous coronaviruses can live that long without a host, but it highly depends on the type of surface, and noone really knows for sure. I was wondering whether we should all start being afraid of packages shipped from Japan, but apparently there’s no evidence of the virus traveling through the mail at all, much less internationally. I’ll let the med student speak with more authority, though.


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## ModRQC

Nine days is the typical range estimated mostly from studies on SARS and MERS; still pretty much accurate figures. 

This depends on a lot of things obviously; we're talking ideal surface at room temperature.

I don't think anyone will have to resort to growing cattle and veggies anytime soon. 

About masks, to be truly efficient, they have to be adjusted to the face contours. I'm not saying not to use them if you must, just that it can become the very opposite of what it's supposed to do: let's say some of the viruses get under and then you're breathing highly concentrated virus air for the next hours.

Didn't do anything special yet. I've given what I think is logical answers/advice to questions and comments here, but I'm pretty much fatalist in life. If that sh** must come and get me, none of the prep is gonna make any difference. Obviously, the basics of self preservation I dutifully observe, but then again, that's what I do every day. I work in public, and while usually nowhere near lethal, catching bug over bug is a pain in the ass, so I observe a very strict routine there.


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## lowercasebill

CDC recommendations released Sat recommend against masks. 
They are in very short supply and health care practitioners need them. I have one box leftover from retirement i will give it to my son. 
First suspected case in neighboring county announced today.


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## ModRQC

Even a full blown med isn't an authority unless specialized in micro-organisms. Not that anyone else is neither. And the specialist is concerned with a lot of data that is ultimately unusable in practice, for a very tiny part that might be, in any specific case. Then again, coronaviruses of the SARS or MERS lineage are still very obscure, ill-known. They are still under scrutiny to this day, and the available data is sparse and difficult to confirm in real life scenario.


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## WildBoar

lowercasebill said:


> First suspected case in neighboring county announced today.


Are you still in PA? If so, the case has not been added to the JHU map yet.


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## lowercasebill

Still here (Montco) and they said suspected. 
I suspect it won't be added until confirmed. 
I am in with the flu. Told my son to pick up canisters of hand wipes sat. CDC recs came out. 
sunday i asked him to get a case of travel packages. Wegmans was sold out.


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## ModRQC

Situation dashboard - WHO website

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

Click on any country for targeted data.

The consensus varies but the R0 for COVID-19 is estimated at worse under 4. This means that any one person infected is likely to infect four others. The number that seems to be widely accepted is 2.5.

I expect that any country with over a hundred cases will have some difficulties to contain. It is nowhere near a big number, and quite manageable, but possibly having 250 other infected people that went through the net becomes 625 on the next day and so on. To mitigate this is the hope that people everywhere will be smart enough not to try to hide this - or worse, hide it while still going on infecting others. It is amazing how people can be deadset on being stupid, at times...


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## Matus

Eat a lot of natural vitamins, some fresh garlic, have a proper sleep - simply try to keep your body in a best shape possible.

Wash your hands - properly. Avoid unnecessary gatherings. 

But stop hoarding stuff! You are just causing shortages.


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## lowercasebill

Thank for taking the time to keep us educated.


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## Matus

You’re welcome. Hoarders cleared the shops free of toilet paper, paper towels and soap. In a country of 80 million people with 200 infected.


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## lowercasebill

Not surprised. I think the only thing we know for sure at this point is human nature. 
That said i can be a grumpy old man


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## Matus

We all get grumpy at times. Especially when we run out of toilet paper


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## lowercasebill

Well done


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## Dhoff

Much more important, buy knives, hoard them, we might be facing the zombie apocalypse or something.

guys, this is a valid reason to buy more knives!


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## ModRQC

... and anti-personal mines...


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## LostHighway

At this juncture I'm not doing much in the way of preparation. So far, the disease appears to have a relatively minimal foothold in North America. If it behaves like most other coronaviruses the advent of hot weather (only a couple months away) should substantially damp down transmission, and I'm far from the likely US hotspots on the coasts.
An interesting question to me is if it can get enough of a foothold in the Southern Hemisphere to seasonally bounce back and forth between hemispheres. If I was in Australia I'd be far more worried than I am here in the USA.

I am also curious to see how this will affect the future of the EU?


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## harlock0083

We have few cases in my suburb. There’s a rumor that my kids spring break will be extended for an extra week. Food wise we’re good for at least 3-4 weeks. The fear and panic in our area is definitely growing.


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## lowercasebill

I spent the morning on the phone and internet... There is not an antimicrobial hand wipe available in the U.S.


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## Kippington

lowercasebill said:


> I spent the morning on the phone and internet... There is not an antimicrobial hand wipe available in the U.S.


I have a huge bottle of denatured alcohol / methylated spirits at home for knife making purposes. It's cheap, and makes for a very good disinfectant once diluted with a bit of water (it's 95% ethanol in Australia). Apparently it just evaporates off the skin too quickly if higher than 70% concentration.



LostHighway said:


> If it behaves like most other coronaviruses the advent of hot weather (only a couple months away) should substantially damp down transmission


As I understand, that's just because people tend to group closer together in colder weather.


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## lowercasebill

Once i recover enough from the flu (tomorrow) i am heading out in search of everclear. I do have a gallon of a quat based disinfectant that i can use to make my own. 
I do have canisters of wipes but they are not convenient to use outside the house


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## LostHighway

Kippington said:


> As I understand, that's just because people tend to group closer together in colder weather.



Certainly that is part of the picture but I believe aerosol droplets don't remain suspended in air for as long in warmer and more humid conditions. Of course, that doesn't alter transmission from surface contact. I harbor no illusions that hot weather will magically make it go away.


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## WildBoar

lowercasebill said:


> Once i recover enough from the flu (tomorrow) i am heading out in search of everclear. I do have a gallon of a quat based disinfectant that i can use to make my own.
> I do have canisters of wipes but they are not convenient to use outside the house


This reminds me I have a quart of moonshine somewhere at home a roofer gave to me a couple of years ago. I may finally have a use for it!


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## Luftmensch

Two words for you: toilet paper. Lots and lots of toilet paper....

I cleared out the remaining stock in my three closest supermarkets. I could barely get it through the front door. I now guard my hoard day and night... sitting on the porch... shotgun on the lap


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## Luftmensch

WildBoar said:


> My son is 46 lbs now, so he should last my wife and I for a while.





MontezumaBoy said:


> David - I think you should post this in the sous vide section ... I'm thinking basil creme sauce with a nice Chianti ...



Hmm



WildBoar said:


> This reminds me I have a quart of moonshine somewhere at home a roofer gave to me a couple of years ago. I may finally have a use for it!



Nah... stick with the Chianti.


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## Midsummer

New study out of China showing case fatality rate of 1.4% for covid19. This is a bit lower than previously reported 2.3%. Editorial in NEJM posits that the case fatality ratio is actually closer to seasonal flu.


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## inferno

lowercasebill said:


> Once i recover enough from the flu (tomorrow) i am heading out in search of everclear. I do have a gallon of a quat based disinfectant that i can use to make my own.
> I do have canisters of wipes but they are not convenient to use outside the house



i think regular hand santizer is 70-85% ethanol and the rest glycerin to prevent you skin from cracking from repeated exposure. 

i have a commercial one here. it says 68% ethanol, 13% propanol-2-ol which turns out to be https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isopropyl_alcohol maybe the rest is water or glycerine. i dont know. 
thats the secret recepie.


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## inferno

i simply wash my hand when i get home and to work though. several times.


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## Luftmensch

You don't have to autoclave your hands to keep them clean! Hand sanitiser is fine but unnecessary if you have access to a sink. Soap and a good lather is very effective.


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## Nemo

Kippington said:


> As I understand, that's just because people tend to group closer together in colder weather.



Probably also that the virus particles last longer on surfaces in colder weather. This is certainly true for influenza.


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## minibatataman

inferno said:


> i think regular hand santizer is 70-85% ethanol and the rest glycerin to prevent you skin from cracking from repeated exposure.
> 
> i have a commercial one here. it says 68% ethanol, 13% propanol-2-ol which turns out to be https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isopropyl_alcohol maybe the rest is water or glycerine. i dont know.
> thats the secret recepie.


Sanitizers are around that range because any higher and it won't be effective. Pure ethanol is too volatile, and it'll evaporate too quickly if it's pure.


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## minibatataman

ModRQC said:


> Even a full blown med isn't an authority unless specialized in micro-organisms. Not that anyone else is neither. And the specialist is concerned with a lot of data that is ultimately unusable in practice, for a very tiny part that might be, in any specific case. Then again, coronaviruses of the SARS or MERS lineage are still very obscure, ill-known. They are still under scrutiny to this day, and the available data is sparse and difficult to confirm in real life scenario.


I never claimed to be a specialist 
My "recommendations" if you will are what we recommend based on guidelines of our medical department and the Dutch ministry of health.
And yes the virus can survive up to 9 days, but like everyone said already this is VERY dependant on the surface. Post and mail will not carry it for 9 days. Something like a cellphone that is always warm might be able to hold it for a few days. My point was that we shouldn't be panicking about touching anything and everything, but that doesn't mean you should be licking door knobs.


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## WildBoar

Luftmensch said:


> You don't have to autoclave your hands to keep them clean! Hand sanitiser is fine but unnecessary if you have access to a sink. Soap and a good lather is very effective.


I don't know about where you live, but around here they bought all the sinks from the stores. And the eBay reseller prices are through the roof.


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## chinacats

Midsummer said:


> New study out of China showing case fatality rate of 1.4% for covid19. This is a bit lower than previously reported 2.3%. Editorial in NEJM posits that the case fatality ratio is actually closer to seasonal flu.



Im not paranoid but im guessing if a cruise boat had a bad run of the seasonl flu that you wouldnt have had as many deaths as the one in Japan. That said, im sure there could be other variables...guessing current cruise off SF will give us a better idea...


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## Bert2368

Medcram is pretty good at finding and assembling the available information. WHO says 3.4% fatalities at last report, up from the previous estimate of 2%.

 

Expect many large public gatherings to be cancelled, or more lightly attended at the very least. Especially ones involving international travel.

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/...u-festival-nixed-amidst-coronavirus-concerns/


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## Matus

Most of the previous virus pandemics had a quite varying mortality rates over the world - the 'Spanish flu' would be an extreme example (just check the Wikipedia article). So I would not try judge the seriousness of the disease on the precision after the coma. Seasonal flu is around 0.1%, give or take (again, local and temporal fluctuations).


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## riba

Luftmensch said:


> Two words for you: toilet paper. Lots and lots of toilet paper....
> 
> I cleared out the remaining stock in my three closest supermarkets. I could barely get it through the front door. I now guard my hoard day and night... sitting on the porch... shotgun on the lap


Always handy when **** hits the fan


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## lowercasebill

WHO diy sanitizer.


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## Luftmensch

WildBoar said:


> I don't know about where you live, but around here they bought all the sinks from the stores. And the eBay reseller prices are through the roof.



Damn 

.... I stocked up on everything but the kitchen sink....


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## Michi

Hand sanitisers are good, but not quite as good as soap. The reason is that soap removes the film of fat that is normally on the surface of the skin (which is where any viruses will lodge).

Washing hands with soap is slightly more effective than using hand sanitiser, if only by a little.


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## Luftmensch

lowercasebill said:


> WHO diy sanitizer.









Michi said:


> The reason is that soap removes the film of fat that is normally on the surface of the skin (which is where any viruses will lodge).



... and people tend to scrub their hands better at the sink. That vigour is better for removing the dirt and oils/fats that pathogens can hide in...


[edit: changed the video link to a better "Yeeeaaah!"]


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## Midsummer

chinacats said:


> Im not paranoid but im guessing if a cruise boat had a bad run of the seasonl flu that you wouldnt have had as many deaths as the one in Japan. That said, im sure there could be other variables...guessing current cruise off SF will give us a better idea...



Imagine you have an old man who lives next door to young family. They all get the virus. The kids may not ever even appear to be sick. The parents perhaps a little runny nose. Only the old man gets very sick. He dies. Because of the novelty of the virus and the rarity of the kits for testing; You only test the really sick. So you have one case and one death. Your case fatality ratio is 100%.

The Ship held a lot of vulnerable people (older population) and for that population the case fatality rate is very high. But when we talk about case fatality rates we are talking generally about the rate observed in a large diverse population (unless a subpopulation is identified). Seasonal flu will have a higher death rate than 0.1% when it goes through a nursing home.

Once we have the capacity to test broad populations and not test just the sick and their contacts we will have a better handle on the true case fatality rate. Of course if you have a nursing home, the high case fatality rate within the elderly population would have you concerned.

This virus was not described before 12/19. In other words, it was not known to exist before this time. How do you test for a tiny viral particle that is very similar to other benign viral particles (average coronavirus) and be sure you identify it in all cases but also do not mistake it for a common coronavirus? Oh yea, you have to have the test available to every human who wants one. And it has to be manufactured, distributed and available today. You don't.

Initially some very expensive and limited capacity technology was used for the first tests. These limited tests (only a certain number of labs can run this technology at this time) were used only on the most critical. As you begin the manufacturing process, with a simplified technology, and distribute these commercial kits; then you begin to test anybody who shows up with a snotty nose. Once there is an understanding of the total number of cases we see the true case fatality rate.


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## lowercasebill

CDC recommends hand sanitizer and also recommends hand sanitizer in health care settings. 
This has been my first winter retired and the first time i 42 years that my thumbs did not crack open


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## chinacats

Midsummer said:


> Imagine you have an old man who lives next door to young family. They all get the virus. The kids may not ever even appear to be sick. The parents perhaps a little runny nose. Only the old man gets very sick. He dies. Because of the novelty of the virus and the rarity of the kits for testing; You only test the really sick. So you have one case and one death. Your case fatality ratio is 100%.



Right, same thing w flu if family has no reason to test which skews overall results...as i offered, other variables at play but point is it's novel and we don't know...

More interesting to me is that children seem less impacted...


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## lowercasebill

I am the old man next that got the flu. 
5 schools about 11 mile drive from here just closed. 
There is not a bottle of rubbing alcohol or sanitizer to be had.
Liquor store had lots of everclear at 75.5% and i have glycerin as i used to make my own e-liquid when i vaped. I am set.


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## ModRQC

minibatataman said:


> I never claimed to be a specialist
> My "recommendations" if you will are what we recommend based on guidelines of our medical department and the Dutch ministry of health.
> And yes the virus can survive up to 9 days, but like everyone said already this is VERY dependant on the surface. Post and mail will not carry it for 9 days. Something like a cellphone that is always warm might be able to hold it for a few days. My point was that we shouldn't be panicking about touching anything and everything, but that doesn't mean you should be licking door knobs.



Wasn't at all directed against you, and your post was quite correct. Just that people will search for authority assessment and in this very case there isn't much authority to be had. I suspect nurses in the worse affected countries right now might be a more reliable source of data on COVID than any MD and micro-organisms specialist remote from the hotspots or from the actual leading research on COVID. Much remains unknown about these viruses, and first hand experience will tell you more than theory.


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## PalmRoyale

My girlfriend and I have a small house boat with a gas and water tank that can easily last us 3 weeks. Also 3 solar panels on the roof and a wood stove to cook on and keep warm. We know a spot were can drop anchor and not see a single souls for weeks this time of the year. If it gets really bad that's where we're headed.


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## ian

I’ve spent the last 10 years digging out a bunker on a plot of land I bought in VT. I have about a year’s worth of preserved food there that I replenish regularly. It’s underground, but well ventilated with fans at surface level and a state of the art filtration system. Even if **** hits the fan, you won’t smell it.

If a case of coronavirus appears in my neighborhood, I’ll just relocate there for the year. Screw my job. My health is more important.

Edit:


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## Michi

Yes, it looks like a lot of people will get sick. For most of them, it's going to be a week or two of being miserable, not much different from having a bad cold. What makes corona virus much worse than ordinary influenza is the high mortality rate for older people, and that it spreads so aggressively. Probably almost everyone will get it sooner or later, meaning that a lot of older people will die 

We can't prevent the disease, so the trick is to slow down its spread. The chaos and disruption will be worse if lots of people get it all at once, which is why containment is so important. By slowing things down, a small proportion of the population at a time will be sick, instead of having a large part of the population being sick all at once. That way, we put less strain on our infrastructure, health care system, social services, etc.

But I really don't see the need to hoard water, or worry about electricity (or toilet paper, for that matter). This isn't the plague or the apocalypse. Water and electricity will continue to flow, we will still have food and services, etc. No need to hole up inside a nuclear shelter.

The more serious consequences will come from the economic fallout. Cancelled conferences, movie releases, sports events, and people avoiding crowded spaces and travel, which spells havoc for the entertainment and travel industries. School and child care centre closures mean that one parent will have to stay home, not being able to go to work in many cases. Especially small businesses are at risk of going to the wall, because of a lack of employees, or because their supply chain is broken.

The flow-on effects of all that are potentially serious. A lot of people have nothing but credit card debt to their name and only just make ends meet every month. Have them fall ill, or their employer shutting down, and suddenly debt default rates start to climb. Let that go on for long enough, and the banks end up in trouble, too. That means housing markets collapse, stock markets drop, unemployment rates climb, and so on.

The world economy is going to take a really big hit from this, one that will probably linger for at least a year or two.


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## HRC_64

The virus survives 2-9 days on animate and inanimate objects...Also, now there is some evidence of spread thru environmental contamination

- There was a dog that tested positive in HK >https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-dog-pet-hong-kong-infection
- There were sever baggage handlers that have tested positive >https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...at-londons-heathrow-airport-test-positive-for

This means people need to be mindful of their environment. 

- Coronavirus May Cause Environmental Contamination Through Fecal Shedding >https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926390

Relevant....to keep in mind gernal public health/hygeine basics:

- Filthy as a loo seat: hazard of computer keyboards (The Gaurdian) https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2008/may/01/computing.health
-The 'ewww!' on your shoe (baltimore sun) https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-2008-05-08-0805080063-story.html


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## Steel+Fire

I live in Seattle and I am trying to just ignore it. Besides locking yourself away in a rural house there isn't much besides normal personal hygiene and universal precautions that you should already be taking during cold and flu season. The regular flu virus is more contagious and on average kills 18-60k people in the USA. The most dangerous thing we all do everyday is get behind the wheel of a car but we all pile in and forget that each and every time we drive somewhere. This has been blown up by the media and others for their own personal reasons. Reminds me of when I was deployed overseas in 2008-09 during Swine Flu. Being stuck in a deployed military base in a combat zone means you get only news from places like AFN, CNN, MSNBC, Fox. The media coverage made it seem like the entire country was infected but when I got home no one said anything about it.

Like Michi said. Most people who are exposed and come down with symptoms will have what feels and looks like the flu. Unfortunately when it gets into a managed care facility or nursing home it takes the weakest and most compromised.


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## chinacats

Biggest difference that we actually know for a fact is that there is currently a vaccine available for the flu. It's not perfect every year but i prefer it to getting (the whatever current strain) flu which can be very dangerous. In the course of whatever time it tskes to develop a vaccine itbis in the population's best interest to follow medical recommendations....

I am curious about soap used properly being more effective than sanitizer but even there it sounds like the more important factor (and more difficult by far) of not touching your face with dirty hands


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## Paraffin

How you think about this and plan for it, depends a lot on your age and medical history. I get the impression that the KKF age range skews younger, which is understandable especially if you're a working chef or line cook.

Me, I'm 67 and so is my wife. The latest CDC recommendation is that people in our age range start "social distancing" because the virus hits this group twice as hard.

My wife and I live in Washington state USA, but it's out on the Olympic Peninsula where we've only had one confirmed case so far. This week we had tickets for a concert in downtown Seattle. We decided to bail on it. Hated to do that, we really wanted to see that band, but sitting in a crowded dinner theater being served food and drinks... eh, it was optional. It's a royal pain to get in and out of downtown Seattle even without the damned virus.

So we're just keeping an eye on it, not panicking or doing any prepper stocking up. My wife has a trip planned for the end of the month to a place in the US where there isn't any current infection, but she'll have to go through SEATAC airport. That's the main issue. Still thinking about whether she should do that one.


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## Michi

chinacats said:


> I am curious about soap used properly being more effective than sanitizer


That was pointed out by Norman Swan:

The relevant section starts at 1:00.


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## Steel+Fire

Double action. Hot water and time to help kill bacteria and virus. Surfactants to allow oils and other particles to break the waters surface tension and thus mixing with the water and rinsing off the skin.

Sanitizer is good if you have nothing else or between washings after you touch surfaces or blow you nose.


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## Luftmensch

Since the CDC keeps coming up as the authority here (and for good reason):

https://www.cdc.gov/handwashing/show-me-the-science-hand-sanitizer.html

Relevant section for those in a rush:

*Hand sanitizers may not be as effective when hands are visibly dirty or greasy.*
_
Why? Many studies show that hand sanitizers work well in clinical settings like hospitals, where hands come into contact with germs but generally are not heavily soiled or greasy 16. Some data also show that hand sanitizers may work well against certain types of germs on slightly soiled hands 17,18. However, hands may become very greasy or soiled in community settings, such as after people handle food, play sports, work in the garden, or go camping or fishing. When hands are heavily soiled or greasy, hand sanitizers may not work well 3,7,16. Handwashing with soap and water is recommended in such circumstances_​Again... hand sanitisers are great. They have a use. But know when that is! When your hands are clean and you don't have don't have access to a sink - use a hand sanitiser. Otherwise use the sink!! Rather than panic buying sanitiser or making bootleg moon-sanitiser, take the time to learn how to wash your hands well:

https://www.who.int/gpsc/clean_hands_protection/en/

then train yourself to be aware of not touching your face...



.... then hoard all the local soap supplies


----------



## Luftmensch

I'll be outwardly tone deaf here... Those who are displaying a prepper like attitude to this... Is it tongue in cheek? Or are you serious?

I can't quite tell! Those attitudes are not prevalent where I live so it is hard for me to read the sentiment beneath some of these comments.... They don't appear to be tongue in cheek 

(In this thread I have approached the hording topic with humour because the idea strikes me as outlandish.


----------



## Kippington

Steel+Fire said:


> Reminds me of when I was deployed overseas in 2008-09 during Swine Flu. Being stuck in a deployed military base in a combat zone means you get only news from places like AFN, CNN, MSNBC, Fox. The media coverage made it seem like the entire country was infected...


It's fascinating how it's playing out. At this point the public reaction to the media coverage has had a bigger effect than the virus itself (at least where I am). The media then reports this public reaction, and a self-feeding loop grows even larger.


lowercasebill said:


> Liquor store had lots of everclear at 75.5% and i have glycerin as i used to make my own e-liquid when i vaped. I am set.


The end product needs to have around 65% alcohol. You don't have much room to play with that Everclear.


----------



## Kippington

ian said:


> I’ve spent the last 10 years digging out a bunker on a plot of land I bought in VT. I have about a year’s worth of preserved food there that I replenish regularly.


When I was a kid, a school friend of mine had a father that did the same. Whenever I visited his house we'd end up snacking on his stockpile!


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## Luftmensch

ian said:


> digging out a bunker on a plot of land I bought in VT





Kippington said:


> When I was a kid, a school friend of mine had a father that did the same. Whenever I visited his house we'd end up snacking on his stockpile!



The airfare costs must have been crippling!


----------



## WildBoar

Luftmensch said:


> I'll be outwardly tone deaf here... Those who are displaying a prepper like attitude to this... Is it tongue in cheek? Or are you serious?


Okay, we (well, my wife) prepped this morning. With cases hitting a county in Maryland that is not too far from here, we really needed to take stock. We found we only had 2 rolls of toilet paper left in the laundry room, and all the talk about people buying out the supplied at stores admittedly got us a little concerned (the TP I can steal from work I would not wish upon the anyone). So my wife went to Target this morning and picked up a big pack of Charmin. Granted we would have been picking up a pack in another week, but instead we chose to get it while the rush was still one because, well, whenever we get stuck without and have to use our hands I always forget if it should be the lift or the right, and I shake a lot of hands at work.


----------



## ian

Luftmensch said:


> I'll be outwardly tone deaf here... Those who are displaying a prepper like attitude to this... Is it tongue in cheek? Or are you serious?



My apologies, mine was tongue in cheek. I have a bad habit of making jokes that noone knows are jokes. And that’s in real life. It gets worse over the internet.

My wife and I have talked about making sure we have enough staple items to last a couple weeks if one (or both) of us gets sick, but that’s about it. I mean, it’s like a severe flu, not the zombie apocalypse.


----------



## Bill13

https://www.cato.org/blog/misleading-arithmetic-covid-19-death-rates
From the article:

"What about the relatively small number of COVID-19 cases _outside China_? In his February 28, the Director General of WHO reported that “Outside China, there are now 4351 cases in 49 countries, and 67 deaths.” Deaths of 67 divided by 4351 seems to demonstrate a death rate of 1.5%. But such calculations are highly misleading. They assume the denominator of that ratio (4351) is as accurate as the numerator (67). Yet people with “mild cases who get better” are unlikely to _ever_ be included in the denominator."

"If the WHO estimate of 4351 confirmed cases amounted to 30% of the actual number infected outside of China at that time, for example, then the combined total of both unreported and confirmed cases would be 4351 divided by 0.30 or 14,503. In that case, the actual death rate would 67 divided by 14,503, or less than one half of one percent (0.46%)."

"For perspective, the SARS coronavirus killed 774 people out of 8096 known cases in 2003, which was a death rate of 9.6% before it vanished the next year."


----------



## lowercasebill

Kippington said:


> It's fascinating how it's playing out. At this point the public reaction to the media coverage has had a bigger effect than the virus itself (at least where I am). The media then reports this public reaction, and a self-feeding loop grows even larger.
> 
> The end product needs to have around 65% alcohol. You don't have much room to play with that Everclear.


Everclear can be used as is with the addition of a little glycerin. It will ne over 70%


----------



## lowercasebill

While handwashing is the gold standard it is so under ideal conditions. CDC recs for hand sanitizer in a clinical setting is due to cracking of skin on thumbs and fingers from too much washing. I retired last March this is the first winter in 42 years that my hands didn't have cracks 
A trip to the grocery store without sanitizer means you return home potentially contaminated and every thing you touch from door knobs to cell phone to bathroom faucet knobs is contaminated before you wash and the potential for exposure exists when you or your loved ones touch them again. The trick is to keep clean until you have a chance to wash


----------



## inferno

meanwhile in iran...
dont know if this is recommended to be honest.


----------



## lowercasebill

I noticed he didn't wash or sanitize his hands


----------



## Michi

inferno said:


> dont know if this is recommended to be honest


It’s evolution in action.


----------



## inferno

Michi said:


> It’s evolution in action.



hehehe yeah like pushing the FF button and see what comes out of it. sink or swim!


----------



## erickso1

They cancelled South by Southwest here in Austin yesterday. I’ve said this to others. If you are intent on prepping, and toilet paper is sold out, as a last case emergency, head to your local Home Depot/lowes and get yourself a bidet. Keep it boxed up, when it passes, if you haven’t opened it, return it. If you run out of tp, you at least have a backup.


----------



## Kippington

My casual online search for information brought me to the Spanish flu... Holy crap, it makes the panic around Covid-19 look like a joke.

To steal bits from sources on the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918:

It is estimated that one third of the global population was infected
Estimates put the death toll at 3% to as high as 6% of the global population, all within 18 months
This flu killed more people in 24 weeks than HIV/AIDS killed in 24 years
More Americans died of the Spanish flu than in all the wars of the 20th century combined
The virus triggers an overreaction of the body's immune system, which ravages the bodies of people with stronger immune systems (20 to 40 year olds)
There were reports of death as quickly as 12 hours after initial symptoms

Here's a short excerpt on the symptoms from a YouTube video:

_"In some people Spanish flu caused fevers that were so high people hallucinated. Some writhed in agonised muscle pain so bad, the doctors thought they had Dengue - also called break-bone fever.
It made some people temporarily or even permanently blind, deaf or paralysed. Some lost the ability to smell, some had strong vertigo and would fall over if they tried to walk.
Extreme ear infections developed very quickly - going from the first pain to the eardrums rupturing within only a few hours. Some had terrible headaches and double vision."

"Severe mucous secretions and inflammation made it hard for victims to breathe. Some people coughed so hard they tore their abdominal muscles. Doctors doing autopsies saw lungs so damaged that they resembled those of people who died from poisonous gas in the war. Some people developed a symptom most physicians had never seen before - tiny puffs of air would leak out from tears in the lungs and get trapped beneath the skin, puffing up in little pockets all over their bodies. When they moved, the pockets would crackle like a bowl of rice-crispies, according to one nurse."

"Some people developed hemorrhagic fever which, like Ebola, cause it's victims to bleed. An army report described the flu as a rapidly escalating infection and lungs choked with blood, fatal in from 24 to 48 hours. Some people bled from their nose, their ears, and their eyes. Some people with the 1918 flu became so oxygen-starved they began to turn blue or even looked black - a condition called cyanosis. People reportedly turned so dark that it was difficult to distinguish white people from people of colour. For this reason the flu picked up the nickname the Blue Death, and many wondered if the Black Death had returned. When people began turning blue, doctors knew they wouldn't survive more than a few hours."

"The flu was also terrifying because it could kill so quickly. Many victims died within a day or two, or even hours of showing their first symptoms."
_
- Source link​


----------



## Luftmensch

ian said:


> My apologies, mine was tongue in cheek. I have a bad habit of making jokes that noone knows are jokes. And that’s in real life. It gets worse over the internet.



You have me concerned there 



WildBoar said:


> Okay, we (well, my wife) prepped this morning. With cases hitting a county in Maryland that is not too far from here, we really needed to take stock. We found we only had 2 rolls of toilet paper left in the laundry room, and all the talk about people buying out the supplied at stores admittedly got us a little concerned (the TP I can steal from work I would not wish upon the anyone). So my wife went to Target this morning and picked up a big pack of Charmin. Granted we would have been picking up a pack in another week, but instead we chose to get it while the rush was still one because, well, whenever we get stuck without and have to use our hands I always forget if it should be the lift or the right, and I shake a lot of hands at work.





ian said:


> My wife and I have talked about making sure we have enough staple items to last a couple weeks if one (or both) of us gets sick, but that’s about it. I mean, it’s like a severe flu, not the zombie apocalypse.



These sounds like reasonable measures. We already bulk buy toilet paper  from a service that uses 50% of its proceeds to build toilets in the developing world. This is mostly out of laziness! About 6-months of supply is dropped on our door step - meaning we dont have to think about it for 6 months! We also tend to buy extra cans when they are on sale - so our pantry is moderately well stocked. Again.... its a laziness measure. It means you can keep going without a visit to the shops on those nights where you run low on fresh ingredients.


----------



## Midsummer

Kippington said:


> My casual online search for information brought me to the Spanish flu... Holy crap, it makes the panic around Covid-19 look like a joke.
> 
> To steal bits from sources on the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918:
> 
> It is estimated that one third of the global population was infected
> Estimates put the death toll at 3% to as high as 6% of the global population, all within 18 months
> This flu killed more people in 24 weeks than HIV/AIDS killed in 24 years
> More Americans died of the Spanish flu than in all the wars of the 20th century combined
> The virus triggers an overreaction of the body's immune system, which ravages the bodies of people with stronger immune systems (20 to 40 year olds)
> There were reports of death as quickly as 12 hours after initial symptoms
> 
> Here's a short excerpt on the symptoms from a YouTube video:
> 
> _"In some people Spanish flu caused fevers that were so high people hallucinated. Some writhed in agonised muscle pain so bad, the doctors thought they had Dengue - also called break-bone fever.
> It made some people temporarily or even permanently blind, deaf or paralysed. Some lost the ability to smell, some had strong vertigo and would fall over if they tried to walk.
> Extreme ear infections developed very quickly - going from the first pain to the eardrums rupturing within only a few hours. Some had terrible headaches and double vision."
> 
> "Severe mucous secretions and inflammation made it hard for victims to breathe. Some people coughed so hard they tore their abdominal muscles. Doctors doing autopsies saw lungs so damaged that they resembled those of people who died from poisonous gas in the war. Some people developed a symptom most physicians had never seen before - tiny puffs of air would leak out from tears in the lungs and get trapped beneath the skin, puffing up in little pockets all over their bodies. When they moved, the pockets would crackle like a bowl of rice-crispies, according to one nurse."
> 
> "Some people developed hemorrhagic fever which, like Ebola, cause it's victims to bleed. An army report described the flu as a rapidly escalating infection and lungs choked with blood, fatal in from 24 to 48 hours. Some people bled from their nose, their ears, and their eyes. Some people with the 1918 flu became so oxygen-starved they began to turn blue or even looked black - a condition called cyanosis. People reportedly turned so dark that it was difficult to distinguish white people from people of colour. For this reason the flu picked up the nickname the Blue Death, and many wondered if the Black Death had returned. When people began turning blue, doctors knew they wouldn't survive more than a few hours."
> 
> "The flu was also terrifying because it could kill so quickly. Many victims died within a day or two, or even hours of showing their first symptoms."
> _
> - Source link​



The death toll is commonly quoted as more than WW1 and WW2 combined. Just a hair over 100years ago and most people don't even know it happened.


----------



## Luftmensch

Kippington said:


> My casual online search for information brought me to the Spanish flu.



Definitely. For those who are anxious about this disease, flip the thought on its head. We drift through life taking for granted how bad the flu is...


----------



## Michi

Kippington said:


> Here's a short excerpt on the symptoms from a YouTube video


Well, it is a good thing then that corona virus is nothing like that, isn't it?


----------



## Matus

Midsummer said:


> The death toll is commonly quoted as more than WW1 and WW2 combined. Just a hair over 100years ago and most people don't even know it happened.



Even back then it did not get a lasting attention - mainly because it went through local regions rather quickly and many who died were still out of home. Also because of the timing.


----------



## Matus

The Italian government has put the whole Lombardy - 16 million people- under lockdown after surge in new cases.


----------



## Codered

Stop comparing this to common flu. When the mortality was 1% it was 10 times that of common flu. Since then the world health organization anounced that the 1% value was biased and reported optimisticaly by the Chinese and that the real number is around 3.5% or more. Also the percentage varies on age groups and undelying health issues. If you are 80+ the mortality is almost certain. If you are 60-65 the mortality is 15-20%. This means that 1 in 5 above 60 will die. The death is caused by pneumonia. Which builds liquid within lungs and infection. So the death feels like drowning( quite painful and terrible). And the doctors can only try to help the symptoms not treat it.
Also the medical care quality depends on number of cases. If there are hundreds they can try to treat. But if you have hundreds of thousand they most likely will focus on the dying.


----------



## PalmRoyale

This is at the train station in Milan last night. All these people are leaving the city heading south before the lock down. I just don't understand how they can be so blind and selfish. They will take the virus with them to the south and infect their parents and grandparents, precisely the age group you don't want to catch the virus.

The lock down was leaked btw by a journalist. He or she should immediately be locked up and given a long jail sentence and an enormous fine. How the hell can someone be so indifferent to human life that they would do this.


----------



## Michi

Codered said:


> Since then the world health organization anounced that the 1% value was biased and reported optimisticaly by the Chinese and that the real number is around 3.5% or more.


Hmmm… Looking at https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

China: 3.8%
South Korea: 0.7%
Iran: 2.5%
Japan: 1.3%
Malaysia: 0%

Italy: 3.9%
Germany: 0%
France: 1.4%
Spain: 1.2%
Switzerland: 0.4%
United Kingdom: 0.01%
Netherlands: 0.05%

United States: 3.9%
Canada: 0%
Ecuador: 0%
Brazil: 0%

Note that this is the number of fatalities vs the _reported_ cases. There are many more _unreported_ cases of infections, meaning that the actual mortality rate is much lower than what is suggested by these figures.



> Also the percentage varies on age groups and undelying health issues. If you are 80+ the mortality is almost certain.


I don't know where you get that from. Looking at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/, it appears that mortality rate for 80+ year olds is around 20%. I would call that quite a long way from "almost certain."



> If you are 60-65 the mortality is 15-20%.


That figure appears to be inaccurate. The real figure looks like being around 3.6%.



> The death is caused by pneumonia. Which builds liquid within lungs and infection. So the death feels like drowning( quite painful and terrible). And the doctors can only try to help the symptoms not treat it.


Hmmm… Why did you post this? What is the point? To make people feel better? It seems not. To make people worry more by posting grossly inflated mortality rates and emphasising how unpleasant a death this will be? For what it's worth, while we have hospital beds, people will generally die quietly and pain-free, thanks to very effective analgesics.

Maybe try again? Next time, with accurate figures?


----------



## Midsummer

Codered said:


> Stop comparing this to common flu. When the mortality was 1% it was 10 times that of common flu. Since then the world health organization anounced that the 1% value was biased and reported optimisticaly by the Chinese and that the real number is around 3.5% or more. Also the percentage varies on age groups and undelying health issues. If you are 80+ the mortality is almost certain. If you are 60-65 the mortality is 15-20%. This means that 1 in 5 above 60 will die. The death is caused by pneumonia. Which builds liquid within lungs and infection. So the death feels like drowning( quite painful and terrible). And the doctors can only try to help the symptoms not treat it.
> Also the medical care quality depends on number of cases. If there are hundreds they can try to treat. But if you have hundreds of thousand they most likely will focus on the dying.



There have been two large scale studies from China that have analyzed the case fatality ratio from large populations. The first had a rate of 2.3 % and the second a rate of 1.4%. I have no reference as to what some government official has reported. 

Actually the "Flu" like the corona virus is actually a family of viruses. The influenza viruses can have different case fatality ratio's. The most common case fatality rates are in the ~0.1% range. Some strains (viral subgroups like H1N1) have higher case fatality rates. The Spanish flu has been estimated to have ~3% case fatality rate. The flu causes respiratory and systemic symptoms. It is spread by fomites and respiratory droplets. It predominantly affects those with weakened immune systems (children, elders and pregnant women). It causes pneumonia as well.

Corona viruses generally causes mild cold like symptoms. It is spread by fomites and respiratory droplets. The case fatality rate of the most common types is so low it is generally not reported. It attacks elders in particular and appears to not bother the children so much. We do not have enough information about its effects on pregnant women to make a judgement at this time. Some strains are particularly lethal (SARS CoV-1, MERS).

I actually see a lot of parallels here. 

The best way to deal with this is to maintain a level head and do our homework; just like with just about everything in this world. The current virus in circulation (SARS-CoV2) was only discovered to exist early December of 2019. Public health organizations throughout out the world have been doing their best to prepare for just such a situation (It has never been a question of "if" and always a question of "when" such a virus would arise). That is why they immediately came out with recommendations for the public on what to do. These general recommendations are designed to minimize the damage to the population as a whole, while we study and deploy new strategies for this particular threat.

What threatens the public most is panic. When they panic they fail to observe basic rules of hygiene and disease spread. Panic is caused by fear and fear is caused by ignorance. Please just observe the basic rules of hygiene. Nature has brought us a new foe. She always has and always will. Be smart while we look for better ways to combat this virus. And in the immortal words of Billy Preston "love the one you're with".


----------



## Matus

@Michi - even Spanish flu had huge variations in mortality rates (0.1% - 6 and more) partly because different parts if the world were hit with different strains under different circumstances. 

For countries with few infected the virus did not necessarily reach wider demographics, so the fatality rates may change. This outbreak has reached a point where it needs to be taken seriously, even if number of lives lost is ‘just’ a few thousands and thus small compared to fatalities caused by common flu over the same period of time.


----------



## labor of love




----------



## Michi

Matus said:


> This outbreak has reached a point where it needs to be taken seriously, even if number of lives lost is ‘just’ a few thousands and thus small compared to fatalities caused by common flu over the same period of time.


Right. I'm absolutely not suggesting that we shouldn't take it seriously. It clearly is serious, and it probably _is_ the worst health threat to humanity since the Spanish Flu.

At the same time, panic won't help us. Neither will fear, uncertainty, and doubt. What _will_ help us is making decisions based on good data and facts. What will also help is listening to the advice of the experts. (Note to the uninitiated: the Melbourne Truth and the NY Post are _not_ experts.)

What _won't_ help us is buying more toilet paper, or pointing out that almost everyone above 80 years of age will die when, as a matter of fact, that appears to be very far removed from the truth.

Humanity will come out the other side of this, beyond a shadow of doubt. Maybe a little bit battered, but far from beaten. Provided we don't go and beat ourselves first, which we are wont to do…


----------



## Kippington

Matus said:


> @Michi Spanish flu had huge variations in mortality rates (0.1% - 6 and more)...


The Vanuatu archipelago suffered 90% mortality and 20 of its local languages went extinct.
In Okak and Hebron the mortality rate was 70%.
In Samoa and Sandwich Bay, the deaths attributable to influenza were estimated to have been about 23% of the entire population.

My point of bringing this up is I think that Covid-19, even at its worst case scenario, will not be as bad as the Spanish flu of 1918... and people tend to forget it even existed.


----------



## Matus

Yes - there were indeed areas hit very badly with the Spanish flu - interestingly most of the time it were indigenous people or some other more closed communities. Maybe they were lacking exposure to some more common strains before and thus reacted differently. 

I agree that Covid-19 does not seem to have the same potential, but one can not know whether a new strain shows up a few months later (like it did with Spanish flu) and may turn much more deadly. Let's hope not.

I am 100% anti-panic. Panic is NEVER a reaction that saves lives. Depending on how the disease will develop different governments will apply different measures and the best one can do is to comply and apply common sense.


----------



## chinacats

Most interesting to me about Spanish flu ws that first year wasn't so bad...went away over summer and came back super deadly.


----------



## Codered

You might think i am overreacting but in Italy 133 died in the last 24h and 1250 new cases. The fatalities will grow with numbers because there are not so many doctors and respirators to help so many patients. What we can do at this moment is to look at what happened with the spanish flu in history and learn from it. We should asume and prepare for the worst. Because i can see people minimizim the risks, going out in crowded places and not wearing masks. Just washing hands will not help because you already touched your clothes pockets door knobs. Best thing would be if there are cases in your town to avoid going out and work remotely or try to go to your summer house and try to keep away from crowds and contact. Better safe than sorry.


----------



## lowercasebill

You are not overreacting. There are way too many unknowns to not take this seriously. At almost 69 i am limiting my exposure to public places. I wore gloves at the grocery store friday . I made my first batch of hand sanitizer today. More or less i practice sterile technique outside my house. I wipe down the cigarette packages in the car. And so on. 
At this point we don't really know the rate of spread and there is always the chance of increased virulence. Although bacterial not viral bubonic vs pneumonic plague is a good lesson as is the spanish flu. From what i have read it was the spanish flu and not victory that ended WWI. 
There are hand wipes on the stove next to the door. Everyone who enters uses them there are surface wipes there as well and i do the door knobs. I am retired but my son practices he brought me the flu.. We did not hug or shake hands and he did not cough or sneeze but he touched everything. While 10 days on the sofa was not fun nor was the day i was afraid it was a good and timely lesson for which i am grateful. Also i got to buy that Japanese cap cutter .
Since we are scattered all over the world it may be a good idea that we post our local conditions?
I am in Southeast PA USA. 2 cases in my County 5 schools closed 5 miles as the crow flies from my house.


----------



## podzap

My preparation? Buy lots of pork chops. Just went to a Bryan Adams concert last night with my wife. Went out to supermarkets the past few days. Working in a large office building with people from all over the planet. If I get sick, I'm going to buy a few litres of whisky and head to the sauna.


----------



## labor of love

No infections in my state yet. So since their really isn’t much hysteria I took the opportunity to buy up all the toilet paper and sanitizer I could. Cottonelle will be treated like dammy Katos in the next 6 monthes. Will be posting a FS thread soon on non knife BST with heavy markups on all products please don’t mention it in flipper alert thread.
Thanks


----------



## ian

So why is everyone buying toilet paper? Just because everyone assumes everyone else is going to stock up on it? I'm not sure I understand the emphasis. I mean, I guess it's essential, but so are a billion other things. And it's not like you'd go through like 20 rolls in the amount of time you were sick or something.


----------



## labor of love

ian said:


> So why is everyone buying toilet paper? Just because everyone assumes everyone else is going to stock up on it? I'm not sure I understand the emphasis. I mean, I guess it's essential, but so are a billion other things. And it's not like you'd go through like 20 rolls in the amount of time you were sick or something.


Toilet paper isn’t essential at all. I know that’s a weird thing to say but if we’re talking serious prepping for the long haul, it should be close to the bottom of the list.


----------



## lowercasebill

As i understand it the toilet paper craze started in japan due to the mistaken belief that toilet paper came from china and would be unavailable shortly.
My area has not had a run on that or paper towels. Hand sanitzer and rubbing alcohol have been gone for a week.


----------



## Matus

One lady in Germany made a mistake when stocking up on toilet paper and now has garage literally filled with it. 

My sister works at the largest hospital in Czechia. Few days back a Chinese national who just arrived from Italy walked in - after a long commute with public transport - with a fever! Caused an alarm, but turned out not to be infected with Corona. 

We just cancelled our trip to Prague - to simply limit possible exposure on both sides (as the infection is already on both sides)

I am expecting more measures to be taken if the infection keeps spreading. Working for a big-ish company where there is a lot of personal contact may prove problematic eventually.


----------



## lowercasebill

Matus said:


> One lady in Germany made a mistake when stocking up on toilet paper and now has garage literally filled with it.
> 
> My sister works at the largest hospital in Czechia. Few days back a Chinese national who just arrived from Italy walked in - after a long commute with public transport - with a fever! Caused an alarm, but turned out not to be infected with Corona.
> 
> We just cancelled our trip to Prague - to simply limit possible exposure on both sides (as the infection is already on both sides)
> 
> I am expecting more measures to be taken if the infection keeps spreading. Working for a big-ish company where there is a lot of personal contact may prove problematic eventually.



Just be safe


----------



## bahamaroot

Interesting read from the KKF WHO authorities.


----------



## ian

bahamaroot said:


> Interesting read from the KKF WHO authorities.



Some people get their news from the New York Times. Some people watch The Daily Show. I come to KKF, the leading edge of pointed journalism.


----------



## Kippington

Matus said:


> One lady in Germany made a mistake when stocking up on toilet paper and now has garage literally filled with it.


The same thing happened in Australia, it happened just before the panic - she accidentally ordered 48 boxes instead of her normal 48 rolls. Who's laughing now? 






Matus said:


> I am expecting more measures to be taken *if the infection keeps spreading.*


Unfortunately, it's no longer a question of _"*if*"_...

Some good news is that China has been very effective at minimising the spread. They suffered the first known cases in an extremely busy city, and it would've spread like crazy well before anyone even knew of it's existence. China had a huge time disadvantage to act when compared to the rest of the world, but of course they also have a more draconian government than most Western countries which they used to their advantage.

The bad news is that other countries might not taking it as seriously as they should. Lessons in the past are a good reminder:

- In late 1918 Philadelphia officials ignored warnings of the Spanish Flu, downplaying the threat
- On September 28, 200,000 people gathered for the Liberty Loan parade
- Just days after the parade, 635 new cases of influenza were reported. Two days later, the city was forced to admit that epidemic conditions did indeed exist.
- In the next few months, Philadelphia lost nearly 13,000 citizens.​


----------



## WildBoar

A friend of mine leads a weekly group of older adults in a weekly gathering to discuss political stuff, etc. at a local university. Yesterday i spent a few hours at his house going through car parts he needs to sell/ give away, since he and his wife now live in an elderly condo building. We spent quality time in close quarters, and of course his very bad seasonal allergies were out in full force due to the budding trees, etc. So picture a lot of runny nose wiping, sneezing, etc.

Lat night he found out an attendee at the last gathering had been at the conservative political convention where it is now known that one of the attendees had the virus (it was not apparent at the time). It was supposedly a big conference, and included an appearance by the VP of the US. So literally 4 hours after I got back home my friend had the news to pass on to me. And by that point I had already been to a restaurant for dinner with my wife, and then spent over an hour with my 77+ year old father and my 7 year old son. And my friend had spent a few days back in the condo building, among many who are a bit older and/ or weaker than he is.

So did the guy with the virus spread it to the guy who attended my friend's gathering? And if so, did it leak to my friend? If so, some at his condo building could be in trouble, and I am also screwed, as there is no way in heck I did not come in contact with something during the hours I was at his house. And if it made it to me, did it pass to anyone at the restaurant last night? Or to my wife, son or father? Should I lock myself up until there is enough time for something to appear? How many other people have interacted with people who were in the vicinity of someone who is now known to have the virus? The rate at which things can spread due to the lag until symptoms show up mean there is no way in heck to effectively contain this in a free society. Slow it, yes. But keep it from spreading, no. For now I have proceed in a normal fashion, and hope the person my friend was in contact with dies not show symptoms in the next few days.

Switching gears, and assuming I did not catch anything, we have a trip during my son's spring break that is already paid for. The destination has no cases at this point, but in a few weeks I would be surprised if that did not change. And if it doesn't, maybe they don't want people from the DC area traveling to their city. I booked the trip a while back, and supposedly I am far outside the window of getting to cancel the plane tickets. I can get back most of the hotel cost, but three plane tickets represents a bit more $ than the hotel cost. We also having to hold off booking an overseas trip, as who knows what the conditions will be here in the US, at the airport where we would have to change planes, and at the final destination. Kinda need to put life outside of work and my son's school on hold for a few months, possibly.


----------



## Kippington

@WildBoar
A bit of a shock no doubt, but you are probably fine.

The covid-19 symptoms are sore throat/cough and fever. The sneezing makes it sound distinctly hayfeverish. Add two levels of separation plus the short timeframes (lesser chances of pre-symptomatic transmission) and you're sitting pretty.

Get tested if reasonable to do so, if not there's not a lot to do other than ride out the next few days being extra hygienic towards others and seeing if any symptoms pop up.

Disclaimer: I'm no doctor or expert, I'm just trying to help you have a better piece of mind with sensible reasoning.


----------



## Marek07

labor of love said:


> Toilet paper isn’t essential at all. I know that’s a weird thing to say but if we’re talking serious prepping for the long haul, it should be close to the bottom of the list.


Me thinks toilet paper is very close to the bottom...


----------



## Johnny.B.Good

I’m in Berkeley and my office is letting everyone stay home next week if they feel vulnerable after a few people in the building think they may have been in contact with an infected person. They have self quarantined but I don’t know how/if they will be tested, or when we’ll know the results. Seems inevitable this thing will be really widespread here soon.



lowercasebill said:


> I wipe down the cigarette packages in the car. And so on.



If you’re really concerned about your health, you should throw them out the window (though I guess you know that).


----------



## Nemo

Kippington said:


> @WildBoar
> 
> Get tested if reasonable to do so



Not so easy to get tested in Au. Only a certain number of tests can be conducted per day. Health authorities have developed testing criteria and they are pretty serious about them. No fever and no covid contact seems to mean no testing.

I have heard that there are similar issues in other countries.


----------



## madelinez

Nemo said:


> Not so easy to get tested in Au. Only a certain number of tests can be conducted per day. Health authorities have developed testing criteria and they are pretty serious about them. No fever and no covid contact seems to mean no testing.
> 
> I have heard that there are similar issues in other countries.



To be fair, they don't have unlimited test kits. It is best to use them on higher risk cases over people that feel they might have been infected. No country has unlimited kits, in fact a lot of countries have insanely limited kit numbers (less than 1000). Best to let the health authorities use their resources as they see best. Australia has a pretty decent general medical supply stockpile (masks, antibiotics, antiseptic in hidden locations that have been gathered over the last decade) as well as test kits but we should wait to use them when we need them. The best people to decide that are medical experts.


----------



## Nemo

madelinez said:


> To be fair, they don't have unlimited test kits. It is best to use them on higher risk cases over people that feel they might have been infected. No country has unlimited kits, in fact a lot of countries have insanely limited kit numbers (less than 1000). Best to let the health authorities use their resources as they see best. Australia has a pretty decent general medical supply stockpile (masks, antibiotics, antiseptic in hidden locations that have been gathered over the last decade) as well as test kits but we should wait to use them when we need them. The best people to decide that are medical experts.



It's probably more that the tests are done in a limited number of labs and there is a maximum daily turnover. That is, staffing limitations are probably more restrictive than material limitations.

No doubt, it's important to prioritise the deployment of this scarce resource. My point was that the scarcity of this diagnostic resource is leaving a lot of room for doubt as the virus spreads.


----------



## Michi

Nemo said:


> My point was that the scarcity of this diagnostic resource is leaving a lot of room for doubt as the virus spreads.


Yes, I guess it's a bit unnerving, because people like to know what's happening to them. But excessive testing won't do much. I mean, how often should I go and get myself re-tested, just in case? Once a week? Twice a week? This just doesn't work.

The best thing for each person, as well is the community, is to try and avoid high-risk situations as much as possible. What these situations are depends on each person, of course. But, in general, for the time being, I avoid getting into situations where there are lots of people in a confined space. No cinemas, concerts, sports events, etc. This not only protects me, but also protects people around me, in case I have been infected already. It's particularly important to be sensible here because the disease can spread during the incubation period.

If I do end up showing signs of something that might be corona virus, I'll just stay at home for two weeks. Chances are that the illness will be inconvenient (maybe even miserable) but, on the whole, it's unlikely to be worse than an ordinary flu. And, it's entirely possible of course that I come down with something that might be corona virus, but isn't. My behaviour won't change regardless: I'll just stay home. If I don't have corona virus, it'll be redundant but, if I do, I won't be infecting other people in the mean time.

I don't think I'd want to go get and get myself tested. If I do and come up positive, all I'd be told is to self-isolate anyway. So no point in going out for a test, only to risk infecting some more people along the way.


----------



## WildBoar

Kippington said:


> @WildBoar
> A bit of a shock no doubt, but you are probably fine.
> 
> The covid-19 symptoms are sore throat/cough and fever. The sneezing makes it sound distinctly hayfeverish. Add two levels of separation plus the short timeframes (lesser chances of pre-symptomatic transmission) and you're sitting pretty.


No question my friend has season allergies. But the sneezing and runny nose would easily spread around a virus *if* he happened to have it. I'm not sweating it at all, really, but just thinking about it a little you can see how it is possible to spread the virus far and wide before anyone even knows it is an issue. That is the reality of this virus.


----------



## ian

WildBoar said:


> and hope the person my friend was in contact with dies



Dark, dude. 

Yea, with the first cases now appearing in Boston, I start thinking that my sore throat that I’ve had for 3 weeks must be coronavirus, rather than one of the many illnesses my son brings home from preschool.


----------



## Michi

ian said:


> I start thinking that my sore throat that I’ve had for 3 weeks must be coronavirus, rather than one of the many illnesses my son brings home from preschool.


Or not. Don't sweat it. You either have it, or you don't. Chances are that you don't.

Just keep to yourself for a while as much as possible, and get some cooking and sharpening done. There is an upside to self-isolation!


----------



## Kippington

Italy's mortality rate is at 5% 
They have roughly the same number of confirmed cases as South Korea, but 7 times the fatalities.

South Korea has done a lot more testing though. This doesn't bode well for the likely number of undiagnosed cases wandering around Italy.


----------



## WildBoar

I read late last week that Washington DC has the ability to conduct a whopping 50 tests per day. And this is not uncommon -- there is no ability to test large amounts of people in a short period of time.


----------



## lowercasebill

It is a virus and it's virulence can chan


WildBoar said:


> I read late last week that Washington DC has the ability to conduct a whopping 50 tests per day. And this is not uncommon -- there is no ability to test large amounts of people in a short period of time.



Do you have relatives here? Montco had 2 confirmed cases as of Sat. Central bucks closed 5 schools Friday.


----------



## Luftmensch

Midsummer said:


> There have been two large scale studies from China that have analyzed the case fatality ratio from large populations. The first had a rate of 2.3 % and the second a rate of 1.4%. I have no reference as to what some government official has reported.
> 
> Actually the "Flu" like the corona virus is actually a family of viruses. The influenza viruses can have different case fatality ratio's. The most common case fatality rates are in the ~0.1% range. Some strains (viral subgroups like H1N1) have higher case fatality rates. The Spanish flu has been estimated to have ~3% case fatality rate. The flu causes respiratory and systemic symptoms. It is spread by fomites and respiratory droplets. It predominantly affects those with weakened immune systems (children, elders and pregnant women). It causes pneumonia as well.
> 
> Corona viruses generally causes mild cold like symptoms. It is spread by fomites and respiratory droplets. The case fatality rate of the most common types is so low it is generally not reported. It attacks elders in particular and appears to not bother the children so much. We do not have enough information about its effects on pregnant women to make a judgement at this time. Some strains are particularly lethal (SARS CoV-1, MERS).
> 
> I actually see a lot of parallels here.
> 
> The best way to deal with this is to maintain a level head and do our homework; just like with just about everything in this world. The current virus in circulation (SARS-CoV2) was only discovered to exist early December of 2019. Public health organizations throughout out the world have been doing their best to prepare for just such a situation (It has never been a question of "if" and always a question of "when" such a virus would arise). That is why they immediately came out with recommendations for the public on what to do. These general recommendations are designed to minimize the damage to the population as a whole, while we study and deploy new strategies for this particular threat.
> 
> What threatens the public most is panic. When they panic they fail to observe basic rules of hygiene and disease spread. Panic is caused by fear and fear is caused by ignorance. Please just observe the basic rules of hygiene. Nature has brought us a new foe. She always has and always will. Be smart while we look for better ways to combat this virus. And in the immortal words of Billy Preston "love the one you're with".



Eloquent post!


----------



## Luftmensch

WildBoar said:


> For now I have proceed in a normal fashion, and hope the person my friend was in contact with dies



Jeeze man... that is rough. Didnt think you were that nasty


I am sure you are ok! Start with the assumption you have not caught the virus. Update your expectations if you start coming down with flu-like symptoms and call your GP.




WildBoar said:


> Switching gears, and assuming I did not catch anything, we have a trip during my son's spring break that is already paid for. The destination has no cases at this point, but in a few weeks I would be surprised if that did not change. And if it doesn't, maybe they don't want people from the DC area traveling to their city. I booked the trip a while back, and supposedly I am far outside the window of getting to cancel the plane tickets. I can get back most of the hotel cost, but three plane tickets represents a bit more $ than the hotel cost. We also having to hold off booking an overseas trip, as who knows what the conditions will be here in the US, at the airport where we would have to change planes, and at the final destination. Kinda need to put life outside of work and my son's school on hold for a few months, possibly.



Yeah... these situations are tough. I feel bad for people in these situations. It is a hard decision. It might be cold comfort... but if you have past the point where you can recoup the majority of your holiday spending in refunds, then at least you have time to make your decision.


----------



## Luftmensch

ian said:


> Dark, dude.



Ha! Beat me to it!


----------



## Luftmensch

lowercasebill said:


> I wipe down the cigarette packages





You did mention vaping earlier. I can't help but think that a smoker worrying about hand sanitation during a respiratory disease epidemic is focusing on the wrong priorities. I feel uncomfortable and cruel saying this.

Smoking is addictive and hard to quit. I also don't mean to find yet _another_ reason to compel smokers to quit. I also doubt there is any solid evidence linking smoking as a elevating risk factor in either contracting or dying from COVID-19 (specifically). Yet smoking is known to compromise the immune system and increase vulnerability, severity and complications in other respiratory diseases such as colds, flu and bronchitis.

I bet this is irritating advice for a smoker to receive from a non-smoker - but if you are serious about minimising your chance of contracting COVID-19, dont just wipe down that cigarette package... put it away for good! You can do it!


----------



## lowercasebill

No offense taken. Since i got the flu i cannot inhale at this point i am just lighting them out of habit and have switched to nicotine lozenges.


----------



## Luftmensch

Glad to hear it! Although it sucks you are knocked back from the flu

I am with you! I got the cold/flu last weekend. Really sore throat, exhausted, full of mucus... it was a ****** week. I can breathe ok - but I definitely get out of breath quickly.


----------



## lowercasebill

My 10 days are over. I am up and about.. I hope you recover quickly. 
And i had a flu shot!


----------



## WildBoar

lowercasebill said:


> My 10 days are over. I am up and about..
> And i had a flu shot!


Great to hear!


lowercasebill said:


> It is a virus and it's virulence can chan
> 
> 
> Do you have relatives here? Montco had 2 confirmed cases as of Sat. Central bucks closed 5 schools Friday.


Sister and brother-in-law are in the Malvern area, and my BIL travels extensively in the US for work (and when not traveling is in a corporate office just to the west of Philadelphia). Also have a great aunt in her mid-80s out in the King of Prussia area; thankfully she is not out and about much.


----------



## Xenif

I always find KKF to be an interesting place of discussion, even when knives are not involved. I've seen a lot of discussion about mortality rate, and I just wanted to add my 2 cents.

Mortality rates can really differ wildly between populations, since conditions, medical facilities, response time all differ. On top of that we know the SARS-Cov2 uses the ACE2 (angiotensin-converting enzyme-2) as an entry to the human cell, it maybe that certian populations have a higher ACE2 expression (for example Asian Males, Zhao, Y. et al. Single-cell RNA expression profiling of ACE2, the putative receptor of Wuhan 2019-nCoV. bioRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985 (2020). Which can mean infection rates and mortality rate can *possibly* differ. 

I just want to remind everyone that its 2020 and our understanding of virology has greatly improved since the spanish flu pandemic. However, that particular virus should be a lesson to humans. The H1 had been in the human population for decades prior to 1918, but recent studies seem to suggest the virus mutated and possibly picked up avian flu genetic rendering the population at the time more vulnerable. That flooded hospitals and created poor hygine conditions that lead to a lot of death. Recent studies seem to indicate that the SARS Cov 2 has two strains; https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463?searchresult=1

Currently Humans from around the world are working on ways to combat infection, including: Transmembrane protease serine 2 (TMPRSS2) inhibitors that could potentially un-prime the virus' S protines, ACE2 inhibitors and blockers, flooding the system with recombinant human ACE2 so that the virus attaches to them instead of the ones on your organs, and many more. 

But hey what the heck do I know, I just make bento boxes [emoji495]


----------



## Luftmensch

Thanks! I am doing well. Off the couch and back to work. I just wont do exercise for a little while longer.


----------



## Luftmensch

Xenif said:


> I always find KKF to be an interesting place of discussion, even when knives are not involved.



Absolutely! The discussions can be quite good indeed. Good post



Xenif said:


> But hey what the heck do I know, I just make bento boxes


----------



## Nemo

Michi said:


> Yes, I guess it's a bit unnerving, because people like to know what's happening to them. But excessive testing won't do much. I mean, how often should I go and get myself re-tested, just in case? Once a week? Twice a week? This just doesn't work.
> 
> The best thing for each person, as well is the community, is to try and avoid high-risk situations as much as possible. What these situations are depends on each person, of course. But, in general, for the time being, I avoid getting into situations where there are lots of people in a confined space. No cinemas, concerts, sports events, etc. This not only protects me, but also protects people around me, in case I have been infected already. It's particularly important to be sensible here because the disease can spread during the incubation period.
> 
> If I do end up showing signs of something that might be corona virus, I'll just stay at home for two weeks. Chances are that the illness will be inconvenient (maybe even miserable) but, on the whole, it's unlikely to be worse than an ordinary flu. And, it's entirely possible of course that I come down with something that might be corona virus, but isn't. My behaviour won't change regardless: I'll just stay home. If I don't have corona virus, it'll be redundant but, if I do, I won't be infecting other people in the mean time.
> 
> I don't think I'd want to go get and get myself tested. If I do and come up positive, all I'd be told is to self-isolate anyway. So no point in going out for a test, only to risk infecting some more people along the way.




It's not just about reassurance.

One of the issues with this virus is that a significant number of people have very mild symptoms but can still spread the virus. Indeed, there is some evidence that these people shed large amounts if virus. Unless you can convince anybody with a bit of a sniffle to self-isolate for 2 weeks, you need to be able to identify these people if you want to control spread. This is where the scarcity of testing is a problem in the overall control of the disease.

It's gonna be hard to convince people with mild symptoms to self isolate if they are living hand to mouth or if they work in an industry that is always stretched. Healthcare is an obvious example which is about to become even more stretched. The other group that may not be able to self-isolate every time they get sick is parents of young children, who may spend upwards of 3 months sick every year.

Your plan will probably work for those who can easily self isolate for a single event. However the interaction of the intricacies of this virus' symptom pattern with the broader milleu of non-covid viral illnesses and societal and economic imperatives introduce significant difficulty containing the virus if we can't detect the virus in mild cases.


----------



## Midsummer

I know of at least one major provider of lab services (Quest) has announced that they will be running testing very soon. 

Samples will have to be collected by physician offices, hospitals and clinics.

capitalism can be a great motivator.


----------



## Michi




----------



## Geigs

Storm in a teacup. This has all been blown out of proportion, honestly I don't believe it's any worse than regular flu. I have a doctorate in hematology and have 20 years experience working in biotech.


----------



## chinacats

Geigs said:


> Storm in a teacup. This has all been blown out of proportion, honestly I don't believe it's any worse than regular flu. I have a doctorate in hematology and have 20 years experience working in biotech.



So that makes you a virologist, or maybe you work for the CDC? Maybe if this was about hematology you'd be offended by a virologist stating facts (oh yes, hunches) about your field of study? Next time i see my cardiologist I'll make sure and get his thoughts on my bad back...

BTW, not disrespecting your opinion (which is close to mine) just don't find your resume/credentials relevant...


----------



## labor of love

I’m dealing with the USPS right now for a missing package. There’s a recorded message that certain guaranteed international deliveries arent happening right now because of the corona virus. Less flights, etc. Expect delays from certain countries.


----------



## WildBoar

It's possible they may want to quarantine packages, so that could build a 2-week delay into delivery form overseas.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Geigs said:


> Storm in a teacup. This has all been blown out of proportion, honestly I don't believe it's any worse than regular flu. I have a doctorate in hematology and have 20 years experience working in biotech.



Interesting the backgrounds of persons on this forum. Have watched movies like seven monkeys where humans get wiped out by a nasty strain. 

Remember how loose sex was in 60's & 70's maybe because was younger more sexually active. Then in the 80's that all changed because of AIDS. 

Doomsday has been going on for centuries all have failed to occur. Crackpot religious leaders have taken followers to the afterlife with suicide.

Latest is climate change. Earth has been warmer even between ice ages. Sea levels have been much higher and lower in last couple million years. 

It's black & white all man made co2 levels from industrial revolution.


----------



## Corradobrit1

labor of love said:


> I’m dealing with the USPS right now for a missing package. There’s a recorded message that certain guaranteed international deliveries arent happening right now because of the corona virus. Less flights, etc. Expect delays from certain countries.


Hope that wasn't the TF.


----------



## labor of love

No, haha. It’s a package that I sent to Canada that’s just stuck in the system. Thank god the buyer is being very cool about it.


----------



## Corradobrit1

labor of love said:


> No, haha. It’s a package that I sent to Canada that’s just stuck in the system. Thank god the buyer is being very cool about it.


Phew. So lets see it


----------



## labor of love

TF should be here in the next week, would’ve been here sooner but I’m buying it from my handle guy, and a custom handle he’s trying to get off a knife I bought is giving him hell. Prob has to get broken off, such a shame.


----------



## WildBoar

I wonder if the virus can be encapsulated in epoxy, or something similar. Than maybe someone like Butch could make it into micarta for knife handles. That would be unique!


----------



## inferno

hi guys. i live in svealand and around here we pay very much in tax, dont know know if we are top 1 but its at least top 3 in total taxation pressure.

so what did we get for all that money?? you guessed it, the most bestest ever healthcare system in the entire world!

after looking at the diagrams below i there is only one thing on my mind: I WANT MY ****ING MONEY BACK!


----------



## Midsummer

inferno said:


> hi guys. i live in svealand and around here we pay very much in tax, dont know know if we are top 1 but its at least top 3 in total taxation pressure.
> 
> so what did we get for all that money?? you guessed it, the most bestest ever healthcare system in the entire world!
> 
> after looking at the diagrams below i there is only one thing on my mind: I WANT MY ****ING MONEY BACK!



looks like they keep you guys so healthy you don’t need hospital or critical care beds at all!!


----------



## inferno

midsummer. you wish. they just send you home instead with some pills. and say FU and dont come back! pills cure everything.

in reality the whole system is mismanaged and bled dry by morons over the last 20 years or so. i wonder *** they really spent all that money on.
maybe they spent it on themselves?

this is gonna get interesting here since there are supposedly only 3k intensive care beds in the entire svealand, and those will probably be filled in about 1,5-2weeks from now. then what??


----------



## Matus

Geigs said:


> Storm in a teacup. This has all been blown out of proportion, honestly I don't believe it's any worse than regular flu. I have a doctorate in hematology and have 20 years experience working in biotech.



Italy recorded 160 deaths in 24 hours what puts the total to 650. About 10.000 people are/were infected. Not quite the standard flu I would say. I can imagine that your working experience gives you a bit different point of view, but whatever way you look at this, this stuff is simply considerably stronger than a flu and unless the numbers of new infections will be brought under control it will get pretty nasty.


----------



## WildBoar

The numbers of new infections is exploding as it spreads through many other countries. In two weeks we'll probably really know the full extent. It will be much worse before it gets better.


----------



## HRC_64

Couple of comments from earlier wanted to highlight

1) Sanitation.

AFAIK Covid-19 spreads through fecal contamination. That means its a huge PITA because your WC becomes infected immediately. The logistical burden to sanitize your loo every day or have a private acess WC is a huge practical problem for alot of the people at risk for this.

2) Risk statistics

AFAIK there is huge variation in sub-population fatality rates when stratified by AGE. the headline number of 1-3% is virtually meaningless since the variation in fatalty rates is so massive...under 50s and you are (order of magnitude) 1% Risk. Over 70 and your risk is (order of magnitude) 10-15%...ie a massive ∆.

It follows that for any "population universe" (ie, a country or a state) that is publicly reporting, the death rates will be a function of the sub-population demographics. That's just a fancy way of saying its "apples and oranges" to compare the death rates across such reporting universes without alot more data/analytics.


----------



## WildBoar

I believe that is one way it can spread, but definitely not the only way, or the #1 way. But(t) I believe it is safe to say it may be the #2 way.


----------



## PalmRoyale

Geigs said:


> Storm in a teacup. This has all been blown out of proportion, honestly I don't believe it's any worse than regular flu. I have a doctorate in hematology and have 20 years experience working in biotech.



That's why in Italy they no longer treat people older than 65, if you have diabetes, a history of lung issues or if you had an organ transplant. They now literally have to choose who they treat and they are forced to choose the ones with the best chance of survival. But that's because it's just a storm in a teacup, right?


----------



## inferno

WildBoar said:


> The numbers of new infections is exploding as it spreads through many other countries. In two weeks we'll probably really know the full extent. It will be much worse before it gets better.



yesterday sweden was at 205 and today 355. i guess at about 1k they start packing up the bags and just state its "everywhere" and do a china blackout denial.
exponential growth. i'm betting 1k will happen on friday before 16.00. and we have 10 dead exactly one week from now. but considering our ****** healthcare this could blow up though. +-X5 i'd say


----------



## labor of love

I’ve already watched a few seasons of “The Walking Dead” so I feel like I know what I need to do.
Pretty disappointed no one has an underground bunker prepared.


----------



## inferno

i like your approach man. know da facts! then you are prepared.


----------



## Matus

Oh, there are enough preppers in US I guess. The question is whether they are prepared for this scenario too ... they may have fancy bunkers and stuff, but surely to way to test each other before caving in.


----------



## inferno

i was just thiking about this. i'm not gonna be one of the ones that will get sick first. so all our hospitals will be overrun when i get sick. 

so is it more humane to simply blow your brain out? actually i would prefer to go out in a 10 megaton nuke blast. you dont have to swim around in your own **** then for a whole day, or drown from your own puke. or suffocate slowly. at least with a nuke its spectacular. for about half a second or so. and i mean then your dead. but dead is dead. 

i actually thought i died in 2000 or so. i was in greece getting wasted. the power went out and everything went black and dead quiet. i just fell down in the bed. and like 2 seconds after it all resumed. and for me, that was like i died. i'm not really ok with slowly choking to death on my lung fluids. its ****ing unworthy.


----------



## labor of love

I noticed these stats earlier today. If this isn’t some sorta fake news, I may just have to throw pops and grandpa in the bunker instead of myself. 
Please lock up your elderly in your basement or celler until we ride this thing out.


----------



## HRC_64

WildBoar said:


> I believe that is one way it can spread, but definitely not the only way, or the #1 way. But(t) I believe it is safe to say it may be the #2 way.



LMAO....that this was meant to be in addition to usual discussion re: fluids/airborne transmission etc (n95 masks etc) .


----------



## LostHighway

labor of love said:


> I’ve already watched a few seasons of “The Walking Dead” so I feel like I know what I need to do.
> Pretty disappointed no one has an underground bunker prepared.



Your underground bunker is fine for a nuclear war provided you aren't too close to the blast but for something like this you need to watch Charlton Heston in "The Omega Man". You need to be at some height with wide field of fire and have plenty of ammunition. They're going to be coming for your toilet paper hoard.
Edit: Forgot night vision goggles and scope(s)


----------



## inferno

being hanged, drawn and quartered might not be so bad after all.


----------



## WildBoar

Had a couple of emails within the last hour. First one was from the city school system, and indicated two from the 'school system family' had self-quarantined because they were showing symptoms. The email indicated there was no known threat at the schools, so it sounds like it was family members of students, teachers or administrators.

Then there was an email from the city (not the school system). It indicated a person known to be infected was in a church complex 1/4 mile from my house every day for 1-1/2 weeks in late February through early March. My next door neighbor is a frequent visitor to that church. He and his wife are both in their late '70s, and she has a lot of health issues related to childhood diabetes. I hope to heck the virus does not strike either of them.

Less than one week ago there were no know cases in this region, and then there were three on the other side of DC. Now it's showing up all over the region.


----------



## CiderBear

Does anyone know if it's safe to use a public swimming pool? I'm strictly speaking about swimming in the chlorinated water, and not locker room/ shower risk.


----------



## Dave Martell




----------



## chinacats

Not sure about internationally but the numbers are sure to rise quickly in the US as testing finally ramps up...

Edit to add...that's a scary video Dave!


----------



## Midsummer

CiderBear said:


> Does anyone know if it's safe to use a public swimming pool? I'm strictly speaking about swimming in the chlorinated water, and not locker room/ shower risk.



the potential ways of spreading this virus are 1) respiratory droplets (cough). 2) fomites- touching surfaces like door handles or table tops with infected virus 3) fecal. I have not read of any fecal transmission that has been documented; though it is theoretically possible and the virus is definitely excreted in the feces. My reading is suggesting that the majority of cases have been transmitted by respiratory droplets.

So your question is can a chlorinated pool be contaminated by the virus and then later be a vector for transmission? I am not aware of any virus or bacteria that has been shown to be transmitted in this way.


----------



## CiderBear

chinacats said:


> Not sure about internationally but the numbers are sure to rise quickly in the US as testing finally ramps up...



That's a good thing


----------



## CiderBear

Midsummer said:


> the potential ways of spreading this virus are 1) respiratory droplets (cough). 2) fomites- touching surfaces like door handles or table tops with infected virus 3) fecal. I have not read of any fecal transmission that has been documented; though it is theoretically possible and the virus is definitely excreted in the feces. My reading is suggesting that the majority of cases have been transmitted by respiratory droplets.
> 
> So your question is can a chlorinated pool be contaminated by the virus and then later be a vector for transmission? I am not aware of any virus or bacteria that has been shown to be transmitted in this way.



Thank you. So, theoretically, let's say someone with covid19 gets their saliva into the pool while swimming.

How long does it take for the chlorine to kill the virus in that saliva? If I swim half length behind them or the next lane over (and of course I'd get pool water in my nose/ mouth), am I likely to catch it?


----------



## labor of love

Might want to avoid surfaces that everyone else touches at the pool. Like the rail on the pool ladder for instance.


----------



## Geigs

chinacats said:


> So that makes you a virologist, or maybe you work for the CDC? Maybe if this was about hematology you'd be offended by a virologist stating facts (oh yes, hunches) about your field of study? Next time i see my cardiologist I'll make sure and get his thoughts on my bad back...
> 
> BTW, not disrespecting your opinion (which is close to mine) just don't find your resume/credentials relevant...



Hematology is the study of blood and cells contained therein. I have a degree in immunology/biology, a doctorate specializing in cellsnof the immune system, and currently work on engineered T cells, which are the primary cell type involved in viral defense. Do you work for the CDC or just sniping from your keyboard?

There are likely a huge number of undiagnosed and asymptomatic cases in the community globally so any reported death rates are likely to be hugely inaccurate. For most people there is minimal risk but perhaps anyone in their 70s or 80s should do their best to minimize contact with others. Hospitals and nursing homes/aged care facilities are the only places I see above average risk. My opinion is also likely coloured by living somewhere with good public health and hospitals which Italy and the U.S. lack.


----------



## Midsummer

CiderBear said:


> Thank you. So, theoretically, let's say someone with covid19 gets their saliva into the pool while swimming.
> 
> How long does it take for the chlorine to kill the virus in that saliva? If I swim half length behind them or the next lane over (and of course I'd get pool water in my nose/ mouth), am I likely to catch it?



I like to leave open nearly all possibilities. I can tell you that we do not have the level of science that could answer your question without doubt. I can tell you that chlorinated pools have not be considered a public health threat for transmission of respiratory virus. You have to use your own judgement beyond that.

Healthy strong individuals have generally milder disease symptoms.


----------



## CiderBear

Midsummer said:


> I like to leave open nearly all possibilities. I can tell you that we do not have the level of science that could answer your question without doubt. I can tell you that chlorinated pools have not be considered a public health threat for transmission of respiratory virus. You have to use your own judgement beyond that.
> 
> Healthy strong individuals have generally milder disease symptoms.



Thank you @Midsummer. I really appreciate you laying out the facts without any embellishments and fear-mongering whatsoever.


----------



## chinacats

Geigs said:


> Hematology is the study of blood and cells contained therein. I have a degree in immunology/biology, a doctorate specializing in cellsnof the immune system, and currently work on engineered T cells, which are the primary cell type involved in viral defense. Do you work for the CDC or just sniping from your keyboard?
> 
> There are likely a huge number of undiagnosed and asymptomatic cases in the community globally so any reported death rates are likely to be hugely inaccurate. For most people there is minimal risk but perhaps anyone in their 70s or 80s should do their best to minimize contact with others. Hospitals and nursing homes/aged care facilities are the only places I see above average risk. My opinion is also likely coloured by living somewhere with good public health and hospitals which Italy and the U.S. lack.



I'm just talking **** from my keyboard but sounds like i have the same gist of the situation as you from reading the NYTimes...nothing personal...just sounds like there is still much to learn...


----------



## HRC_64

Midsummer said:


> So your question is can a chlorinated pool be contaminated by the virus and then later be a vector for transmission? I am not aware of any virus or bacteria that has been shown to be transmitted in this way.



pretty sure you can transmit this with wet towels...eg such as those soiled during washing/showering before the pool session.


----------



## labor of love

You’re good Ciderbear. Might want to pick up a new bathing suit though.


----------



## Corradobrit1

labor of love said:


> You’re good Ciderbear. Might want to pick up a new bathing suit though.View attachment 73764


Does it come with integral floaties?


----------



## Kippington

Gotta love that model pose too. Just how a swimsuit model should look.


----------



## Michi

@Dave Martell Thanks for that video link, that was worth watching!


----------



## Kippington

It's official: The World Health Organisation has just declared the global coronavirus crisis a 'pandemic'.


----------



## Midsummer

Kippington said:


> It's official: The World Health Organisation has just declared the global coronavirus crisis a 'pandemic'.



Yesterday I was going to look up the current definition as I knew we were getting close.

Time to panic or not 

Be well everybody!


----------



## Supraunleaded

My question is, why toilet paper? Of all the things people think they’ll run out of, do they just have less than 2 weeks worth of double ply?

Same thing for hand sanitizer, what were they using prior? 

Lastly, the foot shake greeting is fire and should be a permanent part of our culture.


----------



## WildBoar

We picked up toilet paper because we only had a couple of rolls left. My wife works from home, and we have a 7-year-old, so we tend to go through a lot more than I went through when I was a single guy.

One of the engineers at my office was asking "why TP?" yesterday. He is single, and pretty much takes dumps at the office. If we had to close down the office for two weeks I suspect he would be surprised at how much quicker his some supply gets depleted.


----------



## Corradobrit1

All business related travel both domestic and international prohibited by my medical institution. Personal travel not recommended. 

The Fed is also considering restrictions to travel with European countries.


----------



## McMan

parbaked said:


> Stanford University sent this information to its alumni:
> I found it useful, if it is factual.
> 
> _*Corona Virus - Info from Stanford*
> 
> Stanford Notes on Coronavirus
> 
> The new Coronavirus may not show sign of infection for many days. How can you know if you are infected? By the time you have fever and/or cough and go to the hospital, the lung is usually 50% fibrosis. Taiwan experts provide a simple self-check that we can do every morning: Take a deep breath and hold it for more than 10 seconds. If you do this successfully without coughing, without discomfort, stiffness or tightness, there is no fibrosis in the lungs; it basically indicates no infection.
> 
> In critical times, please self-check every morning in an environment with clean air. Serious excellent advice by Japanese doctors treating COVID-19 cases: Everyone should ensure your mouth & throat are moist, never dry. Take a few sips of water every 15 minutes at least. Why? Even if the virus gets into your mouth, drinking water or other liquids will wash them down through your throat and into the stomach. Once there, your stomach acid will kill all the virus. If you don't drink enough water regularly, the virus can enter your windpipe and then the lungs. That's very dangerous. Please send and share this with family and friends. Take care everyone and may the world recover from this Coronavirus soon.
> 
> IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS: 1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold. 2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose. 3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees C. (About 77 degrees F.) It hates the Sun. 4. If someone sneezes with it, it goes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne. 5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface, wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap. 6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it. 7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice. 8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on. 9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice. 10. Can't emphasis enough - drink plenty of water!
> 
> THE SYMPTOMS: 1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days 2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further. 3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing. 4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention._


Debunked. The give-away was the claim of "50% Fibrosis":
https://www.motherjones.com/politic...claiming-to-be-from-stanford-dont-believe-it/

Here's the real Stanford page with recs, etc:
https://stanfordhealthcare.org/stanford-health-care-now/2020/novel-coronavirus.html


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Thanks Parbaked I'm having rock wall built changing Japanese rock garden that will be behind the wall outside the wall will plant zorsia grass. 

Drinking plenty of cold tea make sun tea in gallon jar. Also drink water working hard in the yard. Washing my hands & trying not to touch my face.


----------



## Matus

It was a hoax, I deleted it. Let’s not discuss hoax stuff here, those who do not read all posts may get miss guided.


----------



## Kippington

Matus said:


> It was a hoax, I deleted it. Let’s not discuss hoax stuff here, those who do not read all posts may get miss guided.


All that cross-checking I did to debunk it... gone! 

I will re-post this video though, a survivors first-hand account of the symptoms.


----------



## parbaked

Matus said:


> It was a hoax.


That's embarrassing. My apologies.
It was distributed by some Stanford graduates...I guess they're not all that smart after all...


----------



## WildBoar

parbaked said:


> I guess they're not all that smart after all...


Sure they are -- they all convinced their parents to spend $80k+/ yr to send them to party for 4 years.


----------



## Matus

Guys, this happens. I appreciate the good intentions and apologize to Kipp.


----------



## Ryndunk

Virus found it's way near me this morning. Only 2 cases so far. I'm sure that number will change soon.


----------



## Supraunleaded

NBA has suspended the rest of its season due to covid-19. More events will probably follow.


----------



## Nemo

It's worth pointing out that one major thing that some people can do to improve their risk profile significantly is to stop smoking. This includes smoking pot (I don't know about ingesting it). I don't know if this extends to vaping but I suspect so.


----------



## chinacats

Nemo said:


> ...This includes smoking pot (I don't know about ingesting it). I don't know if this extends to vaping but I suspect so.



Blasphemy!

FWIW, just had yearly physical this week and wasn't urged not to partake (medical of course)...i don't smoke tobacco and my lungs are in pretty good shape...provided no covid


----------



## ModRQC

As I suggested early in this thread, « medical authority » should be levied as nonexistent or about.

As I also said, masks and hand sanitizers are superfluous. 

I also stated that any country with over 100 cases would have a real hard time containing it, due to spread ratio.

Five pages later and I’ve read of toilet paper and flu statistics and science I already went through.

Today was as good a day as any other since 2-3 weeks to declare this a pandemic... Funny how most people won’t understand a single thing until it is so obvious it’s no news anymore.

As I said medical authorities are overrated, just use some basic good old fashioned goddamned good sense. And don’t panic. Don’t hoard. Cut some stuff.


----------



## Matus

ModRQC said:


> ..., just use some basic good old fashioned goddamned good sense. And don’t panic. Don’t hoard. Cut some stuff.



I think that most agree with this without much reservation.


----------



## Dhoff

Well, Denmark pretty much closed down today and 14 days forth. Schools, kindergardens and those who work for the public. The company I work for has ordered everyone who can work from home to do so. Currently I myself am sick, though whether it is Corona is anyones guess. likely not.


----------



## Michi

Dhoff said:


> Currently I myself am sick, though whether it is Corona is anyones guess. likely not.


Don't go into a flat spin over it. As you say, it may just be a common cold. And if it's corona virus, well, you've got it already, and there is nothing you can do about it other than sit it out. And chances are that it won't be any worse than a common cold.

Cook some nice food, sharpen some knives, and enjoy the time off


----------



## Dhoff

Hah, I wont take time off unless I'm so sick I cannot work 

Not panicky at all, I'm 34, not an age to be worried sick (haha).


----------



## Midsummer

Taking time off of work is not only for your health, but also for the health of coworkers and the public with whom a sick person will interact.

If you do not interact at work then, work work away.

get better soon Dhoff


----------



## McMan

ModRQC said:


> As I suggested early in this thread, « medical authority » should be levied as nonexistent or about.
> 
> As I also said, masks and hand sanitizers are superfluous.
> 
> I also stated that any country with over 100 cases would have a real hard time containing it, due to spread ratio.
> 
> Five pages later and I’ve read of toilet paper and flu statistics and science I already went through.
> 
> Today was as good a day as any other since 2-3 weeks to declare this a pandemic... Funny how most people won’t understand a single thing until it is so obvious it’s no news anymore.
> 
> As I said medical authorities are overrated, just use some basic good old fashioned goddamned good sense. And don’t panic. Don’t hoard. Cut some stuff.


Sure, I'll trust you, an anonymous participant on a forum about kitchen knives, as opposed to people that have devoted lives and careers to studying epidemiology and medicine. Makes perfect sense.


----------



## Geigs

Should any peppers here be concerned about contracting covid19 I recommend stocking up on, and consuming, theracurmin (I also recommend this for anyone with arthritis or inflammatory disease). I've eaten thus stuff for a while and had family trial it with great success. It is a pretty potent immune modulator and my opinion (not a MD so listen or not) is that it would significantly lessen the chances of severe lung or organ damage should one contract the virus.


----------



## Nemo

Geigs said:


> Should any peppers here be concerned about contracting covid19 I recommend stocking up on, and consuming, theracurmin (I also recommend this for anyone with arthritis or inflammatory disease). I've eaten thus stuff for a while and had family trial it with great success. It is a pretty potent immune modulator and my opinion (not a MD so listen or not) is that it would significantly lessen the chances of severe lung or organ damage should one contract the virus.



There is no evidence for doing this. Giving advice like this distracts from actions that are actually useful. Like avoiding large gatherings and unnecessary travel, washing your hands and avoiding touching your face. And it gives the impression that taking some magic herb makes you immune so that you don't have to be careful.


----------



## Geigs

Nemo said:


> There is no evidence for doing this. Giving advice like this distracts from actions that are actually useful. Like avoiding large gatherings and unnecessary travel, washing your hands and avoiding touching your face. And it gives the impression that taking some magic herb makes you immune so that you don't have to be careful.


Anyone coming to a kitchen knife blog for advice on anything aside from kitchen knives needs to be wary. There is a sound scientific rationale behind my post, but whatever, im done talking about anything aside from knives here. Speaking of, where's your Kippington passaround review?


----------



## labor of love

Corona finally hit my state yesterday. And yes, the first thing people did is run to all the stores and buy up all the toilet paper lol. I’ve been crazy busy and distracted with other stuff. I knew I was down to my last roll at the house but kept putting it off anyway. Stopped by a grocery store tonight after work found a random 30 pack hanging out in the dairy aisle. Score!


----------



## panda

wipe from back to front


----------



## labor of love

panda said:


> wipe from back to front


Always do


----------



## panda

the ones hoarding TP have nails like on the right.


----------



## labor of love

Haha. I try and pursue ladies similar to photo 1.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

In my experience woman use quite a bit more TP than men.


----------



## labor of love

Keith Sinclair said:


> In my experience woman use quite a bit more TP than men.


For real. I’ve had arguments with my girlfriend about this. The good stuff is not cheap.


----------



## PalmRoyale

My government finally implemented steps to try and spread out the outbreak so our hospitals aren't swamped with high numbers of patients all coming in at the same time. However, primary and highschools are still open so children will continue to spread the virus to anyone they come in contact with. We might have a decent chance of fighting this thing but not shutting down schools will make every other measures an exercise in futility.


----------



## osakajoe

It’s only appropriate now to bust out this board game and play at home.


----------



## ian

PalmRoyale said:


> My government finally implemented steps to try and spread out the outbreak so our hospitals aren't swamped with high numbers of patients all coming in at the same time. However, primary and highschools are still open so children will continue to spread the virus to anyone they come in contact with. We might have a decent chance of fighting this thing but not shutting down schools will make every other measures an exercise in futility.



Let’s have some compassion for the decision not to shut down schools though. There are some people that need to keep working in order to eat, and some people that are necessary even for the current slowed down economy. (Health care workers, as a glaring example...) If schools shut down and they lose childcare, that’s a big deal. In Boston, there are also a fair number of kids that rely on school to provide their lunch and breakfast.

I’m not saying stopping the spread isn’t a big deal, or that schools aren’t a big part of it, but let’s just acknowledge that it’s a difficult decision.

(Says the guy whose perspective is altered by the fact that he has a 5 yr old.)


----------



## lowercasebill

My county has the highest rate in the Pennsylvania. All schools, entertainment venues and gyms are closed. Grocery stores are placing limits on certain items. My nay sayer friends who went to movies and plays are now afraid. I am retired 1 yr this month and today is the first day i am happy about it. 
Be smart be safe.


----------



## Matus

Shutting down schools (and similar measures) makes sense at the beginning to slow down the onset of the disease and make the strain on the health systems more manageable. But since the virus spreads so easily it will within few months reach most of the population


----------



## lowercasebill

meat dept this morning


----------



## tgfencer

lowercasebill said:


> View attachment 73967
> meat dept this morning



That's nuts. And silly for a whole number of reasons. Why does even the threat of rationing bring out the idiocy in people?

Bet you anything there's lots of beans/rice/lentils on the shelves, which will keep for way longer, create more meals, and provide just as much protein and even more fiber.


----------



## Corradobrit1

lowercasebill said:


> View attachment 73967
> meat dept this morning


Lets see the TP aisle


----------



## lowercasebill

They shut down my County yesterday and asked people to stay home and avoid public spaces for the next two weeks. So everyone made 1 last trip. I will be eating sausage and rice for the next 2 weeks.


----------



## lowercasebill

You're right about the beans and lentils! I bought rice last week. And have induction rice cooker.


----------



## chinacats

One argument mentioned against closing schools is that many folks would have to leave children in care of elderly grandparents during the day possibly exposing an even more vulnerable population...


----------



## ian

lowercasebill said:


> View attachment 73967
> meat dept this morning



Finally, people are realizing that offal can be delicious!


----------



## Corradobrit1

ian said:


> Finally, people are realizing that offal can be delicious!


Love me some offal. Liver and onions yum


----------



## WildBoar

They closed my kid's school system today until April 13.

Most business policies I have been sent indicate those with children who are home due to school shutdowns and work remotely or take time off without penalty. It doesn't help the blue collar sector much, but then again many of those types of businesses will likely have shut down for a week or two.


----------



## labor of love

Yeah our state just shut down school and public gatherings of 250 or more people. I have a coworker going to a funeral tomorrow, seems like bad timing.


----------



## labor of love

Local electricity and water companies are under orders not to disconnect anybody’s service. So you can let that bill ride for another month or two.


----------



## inferno

inferno said:


> yesterday sweden was at 205 and today 355. i guess at about 1k they start packing up the bags and just state its "everywhere" and do a china blackout denial.
> exponential growth. i'm betting 1k will happen on friday before 16.00. and we have 10 dead exactly one week from now. but considering our ****** healthcare this could blow up though. +-X5 i'd say



well well well! 1k didn't happen here today because the "authorities" stopped doing tests on wednesday at about 6pm..... i wonder why the **** they did that?? and then we were at only 500 and not 1k, as i would have guessed when the coverup OP would have started. 

i listened to the press thingy on the radio. and the bosses told everyone it was not necessary to take more tests. and they also told us to simply not go to a hospital at all, because they will not diagnose nor test you, hmm. just stay home and wait for death like everyone else. 

the reporters has found out some interesting stuff though. that the whole swedish healt care system was on a "just in time system" and there were no emergency stockpiles of anything in the system. and after like 10 minutes they actually admitted that this was true. then the reporter asked when this was instated and got no answer for thar one. surprise surprise. 

-----------

not all that worried though. some people have a cold, and some people die. so its from 0-100% in effect there. and i dont feel like dying anytime soon. i heard some guy ojn the radio and he had a severe cold, and had had that for 1,5weeks. nothing more than that. 

but in italy 7,5% of everyone dies... ***. 1k dead, 15k have it. 

i will survive... even if its gonna take all my beers to get there. i will make it though.


----------



## inferno

if booze does not help - its death.. old saying around here. never forget.


----------



## inferno

WHO just sent out new info!


----------



## lowercasebill

Since i started this thread and with your general permission? I would like to ask you all to identify your country state county for the benefit of us all. 
I will start. 
USA Pennsylvania Montgomery County. And the state governor shut the county down yesterday at 3 pm. 
Thanks to all that have posted ..
May you have all the toilet paper you need. (That was unnecessary but then there is bourbon)


----------



## CiderBear

inferno said:


> WHO just sent out new info!



Do you mind posting memes in your coronavirus zombie apocalypse thread? 

The situation is looking worse day by day, and I really wish we could keep this thread clean of memes and sarcasm, so people can feel safe to share their experiences and give others support. Thank you


----------



## inferno

nothing is gonna happen. you get sick, you get well. easy as that. 2w.

or of course you could die. and then you dont get well. but you dont really care either then do you.


----------



## labor of love

Louisianan here. My comments are in regard to the entire state.


----------



## bkultra

US/Illinois/Cook (our State's hotzone)


----------



## inferno

lowercasebill said:


> Since i started this thread and with your general permission? I would like to ask you all to identify your country state county for the benefit of us all.
> I will start.
> USA Pennsylvania Montgomery County. And the state governor shut the county down yesterday at 3 pm.
> Thanks to all that have posted ..
> May you have all the toilet paper you need. (That was unnecessary but then there is bourbon)



stockholm sweden


----------



## ian

USA/MA/Suffolk (ie, Boston) here. So far schools in Boston are still open, but those in all the surrounding towns have closed and all the universities have moved to online classes. Taught my first online class earlier today. Went better than expected.

Businesses are generally open, though.


----------



## labor of love

Wuhan looks to be doing well. They just closed their last temporary hospital today. At its worst Wuhan had 15k test positive in a single day back in February. Only 15 new cases this week.


----------



## ian

bkultra said:


> US/Illinois/Cook (our State's hotzone)



Somehow, I always assumed you were European. Maybe it’s your “global moderator” tag that makes you seem more worldly. I miss Chicago...


----------



## bkultra

ian said:


> Somehow, I always assumed you were European. Maybe it’s your “global moderator” tag that makes you seem more worldly. I miss Chicago...



Nope, Southside Irish... Only place more Irish in the states is Boston


----------



## MowgFace

USA/CA/SF Bay area. Many school districts have shut down. More to shut down on Tuesday. Most big stores are sold out of all Hand sani, PT and TP, Dried Pasta and rice. 

My work (Manufacturing of medical devices) is going through a ton of safety planning for the employees.


----------



## inferno

make no mistake. we are all going to get this **** sooner or later. and the risk is very low to die from it, but some will. 0,2% up to 40 years old then it increases. or if you have some weird anomaly.

personally i have been breathing in some nasty chems for like 20 years while heating/burning/grinding oils, paints, and metals, you name it. and god knows what.

and i might be one of the 0,2% in my age group that could potentially die from this crap. i'm still not that worried though. got hit by a car 2 weeks ago. survived that. gonna survive this **** too. **** this ****. and on top of that i think i have already had it once. its bad yes. but its not the end of the world.

people. dont **** your pants!


----------



## labor of love

bkultra said:


> Nope, Southside Irish... Only place more Irish in the states is Boston


Speaking of which...St. Patrick’s day parade is cancelled here. (thank god)


----------



## bkultra

Same here, both downtown and Southside


----------



## lowercasebill

CiderBear said:


> Do you mind posting memes in your coronavirus zombie apocalypse thread?
> 
> The situation is looking worse day by day, and I really wish we could keep this thread clean of memes and sarcasm, so people can feel safe to share their experiences and give others support. Thank you


I do not. Humor is a welcome break from fear


----------



## labor of love

inferno said:


> make no mistake. we are all going to get this **** sooner or later. and the risk is very low to die from it, but some will.


Mainland China has a population of a billion and a half people.
They had 80,000 infected
3,000 deaths.
And new cases are on a very sharp decline.


----------



## CiderBear

lowercasebill said:


> I do not. Humor is a welcome break from fear



Think we might be on different level of fears. 1 confirmed case at my work announced this afternoon. Indefinite telework effective immediately. That's where I am.


----------



## labor of love

CiderBear said:


> Think we might be on different level of fears. 1 confirmed case at my work announced this afternoon. Indefinite telework effective immediately. That's where I am.


Whoa. I’m sorry to hear that. Did you have close contact with the person infected?


----------



## lowercasebill

inferno said:


> make no mistake. we are all going to get this **** sooner or later. and the risk is very low to die from it, but some will. 0,2% up to 40 years old then it increases. or if you have some weird anomaly.
> 
> personally i have been breathing in some nasty chems for like 20 years while heating/burning/grinding oils, paints, and metals, you name it. and god knows what.
> 
> and i might be one of the 0,2% in my age group that could potentially die from this crap. i'm still not that worried though. got hit by a car 2 weeks ago. survived that. gonna survive this **** too. **** this ****. and on top of that i think i have already had it once. its bad yes. but its not the end of the world.
> 
> people. dont **** your pants!


Please do not post this kind of stuff.
Death rate of people my age is 13 plus percent not counting hypertension heart and or lung disease 
Given your history your confidence is ill advised. All that said i hope and wish for you all the best. And your stats are wrong.


----------



## CiderBear

labor of love said:


> Whoa. I’m sorry to hear that. Did you have close contact with the person infected?



No, i recently traveled so when i came into work on Monday they told me to grab my laptop and self-quarantine at home. 

The person who got sick was only at work very briefly this week (probably to do the exact same thing I did), but their office is on the same floor as all of my close friends, so I'm more worried about them than myself.


----------



## inferno

labor of love said:


> Mainland China has a population of a billion and a half people.
> They had 80,000 infected
> 3,000 deaths.
> And new cases are on a very sharp decline.



80k officially reported. 
in italy they had 15k going from like 1k to 15k verified in one week. 

they had millions in china.... why do you think they shot down the whole country??


----------



## labor of love

inferno said:


> 80k officially reported.
> in italy they had 15k going from like 1k to 15k verified in one week.
> 
> they had millions in china.... why do you think they shot down the whole country??


They had millions of what in China?
Why do I think China shut down the whole country? Because they took the epidemic very seriously and took precautions. It could be said that many parts of the world observed what was happening in China and simply sat on their hands at a time when they should’ve been taking more precautionary measures. But that’s Monday morning Quarterbacking.


----------



## lowercasebill

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics
Do remember that there are a few old men here please do not wish us ill we don't wish ill upon you


----------



## inferno

lowercasebill said:


> Please do not post this kind of stuff.
> Death rate of people my age is 13 plus percent not counting hypertension heart and or lung disease
> Given your history your confidence is ill advised. All that said i hope and wish for you all the best. And your stats are wrong.



you are not going to die from this ******** virus!! stop worrying. 
even though i'm fairly certain i'm much more likely to. i'm about 0,0001% worried. its not even certain you will contract it, ever. 

and if i die from it i die. 

and if you die from it you die.

there is nothing neither you nor me can do to really prevent it. there is no "cure" there is really nothing we can do. i meet at least 100 people every day whether i want it or not. so i know I WILL get it. in maybe as much as 2 weeks. 

dont worry. 

dont be a victim. be a survivor. it all starts in your head. and stops there too.


----------



## inferno

labor of love said:


> They had millions of what in China?
> Why do I think China shut down the whole country? Because they took the epidemic very seriously and took precautions. It could be said that many parts of the world observed what was happening in China and simply sat on their hands at a time when they should’ve been taking more precautionary measures. But that’s Monday morning Quarterbacking.




i think they shut down the country because they had millions and millions infected.

look whats happening in italy now. 

do you think its 15k infected in italy or 150k? as we speak?


----------



## Michi

Millions. Sure thing. Because no-one would noticed that lie.

Italy? 150,000? Sure thing. Because no-one would have noticed a lie by a factor of 10 there either.

Reality check, please?


----------



## inferno

they have TESTED 15k people that have proven positive. how many do you think have gone undiagnosed or simply dont notice anything at all that still have it?? only the people that feel sick goes to the hospital. its as easy as that. and you will all find this out yourselves very soon. do you really think that a stated number of "infected" of 500 means 500 actually really infected people.

it doens't, it usually means 5k. but they have not been tested positive yet, and have no symptoms at all, so why should they go the the hospital. 

you can be infected for 2 weeks without having symptoms and you will spread it during this period. then you are not part of the statistics. but you still have it. 

a 10X under reporting is fair i'd say. it has an exponential growth in reality. you do the math. wait and see.


----------



## ian

I’d certainly not be surprised if the numbers of infected were significantly higher than the reported numbers of positive tests. Even by a factor of 10, and yes, even if the number were millions in China. But the numbers may also be not that high. I don’t know.

But @inferno, I think it’s missing the whole point to say that you can’t do anything about it, so you should just live your life as usual. Taking some simple precautions can decrease your chances of contracting it significantly. And moreover, if you do take these precautions, you’re contributing (in some small way) to taming the spread of the disease. Ie, if everyone does this, then there will actually be fewer deaths. Instead, you’re posting “don’t worry about it, just live life as usual”, which will contribute to the spread. (Well, at least it would if a significant number of people read this thread and took your advice.) Anyway, this is all obvious.


----------



## HRC_64

Michi said:


> Reality check, please?



Italy is a huge reality check.


----------



## labor of love

What I’m finding out today is that things are getting much better today and this week in China. 
A month from now if not sooner the same will be said about Italy as they’ve taken drastic measures to clamp down on the pandemic.


----------



## bkultra

Keep in mind it was the 2nd wave of the Spanish flu that was so deadly. It got better before it got worse. 

Not saying it will be the same, but have to learn from past mistakes.


----------



## HRC_64

ian said:


> I think it’s missing the whole point to say that you can’t do anything about it, so you should just live your life as usual.



worry/anxiety can shut people down and make them act stupid.
worry/anxiety can focus the mind and force people to think more clearly.

paradox of human nature I guess...
same thing can be your salvation or downfall...

just what you make of it.


----------



## Bensbites

ian said:


> USA/MA/Suffolk (ie, Boston) here. So far schools in Boston are still open, but those in all the surrounding towns have closed and all the universities have moved to online classes. Taught my first online class earlier today. Went better than expected.
> 
> Businesses are generally open, though.


Boston now closed for 6 weeks.


----------



## Corradobrit1

Great State of Texas. Left work early and stopped at Lowes....deserted. Went to 3 supermarkets at approx 3pm and they were heaving. I gave up. Nothing I needed urgently. 'Borrowed' TP from work so I'm covered until Customfan's passaround arrives.


----------



## Xenif

Hi, Toronto Canada here. Mad shopping scene here, and no TP. Hockey season was canceled, and our Priministers wife tested positive, we are closing down for three weeks. Canada, over and out

Oh and since we are bored and theres no hockey we isolated the virus responsible for Covid-19


----------



## larrybard

lowercasebill said:


> . . . .
> Death rate of people my age is 13 plus percent not counting hypertension heart and or lung disease



I believe this statistic may be [unintentionally] misleading; I think it is the death rate for those of your age who already have the virus. The way you present it seems to imply that 13+% of all people your age die of the virus.

Larry (in nearby Philadelphia -- and also apparently of roughly your age).


----------



## Bill13

Remember that this virus seems to cause many more issues for those above 60 and Italy has larger proportion of this age group than most countries. It's similar to the Chinese having so many male smokers increasing the mortality rate. It will not be the same in the US.


----------



## Michi

The number of infected people clearly is larger than the number of reported infected. But not because countries are lying (except Iran, probably), but because they can only report what they know. A factor of 10 is way too high.

The growth rate is around 1.13 per day in most countries. It takes 16 days to to reach a factor of 10 at that rate, and it takes about a week of incubation time. After 8 days, we get a factor of 2.65, which is probably much more realistic.


----------



## ian

Bensbites said:


> Boston now closed for 6 weeks.



Everything changes so fast now that everything I say is out of date in 2 hrs...


----------



## ian

Post deleted.

what am I doing, I’m just stressing myself out.


----------



## erickso1

Corradobrit1 said:


> Great State of Texas. Left work early and stopped at Lowes....deserted. Went to 3 supermarkets at approx 3pm and they were heaving. I gave up. Nothing I needed urgently. 'Borrowed' TP from work so I'm covered until Customfan's passaround arrives.



In Texas too. Picked up a puppy this morning since the best timing for a puppy is during self quarantine. Went to my stand by nuclear fall out grocer. Got some brats and dog food. But yeah, it was pretty picked clean. Oddly enough people in Texas don’t find frozen seafood something to buy in the worst of times


----------



## Corradobrit1

erickso1 said:


> Oddly enough people in Texas don’t find frozen seafood something to buy in the worst of times


If it doesn't go mooooo, they don't want to know


----------



## lowercasebill

larrybard said:


> I believe this statistic may be [unintentionally] misleading; I think it is the death rate for those of your age who already have the virus. The way you present it seems to imply that 13+% of all people your age die of the virus.
> 
> Larry (in nearby Philadelphia -- and also apparently of roughly your age).


You are correct.


----------



## chinacats

Maine (USA) began testing Monday with 1000 kits available. They've used 91 and now report our first 2 positive results. One had recently traveled to Italy. I'm kinda' old too


----------



## Gjackson98

labor of love said:


> Corona finally hit my state yesterday. And yes, the first thing people did is run to all the stores and buy up all the toilet paper lol. I’ve been crazy busy and distracted with other stuff. I knew I was down to my last roll at the house but kept putting it off anyway. Stopped by a grocery store tonight after work found a random 30 pack hanging out in the dairy aisle. Score!









saw this today


----------



## labor of love

That was almost exactly what happened to me haha!


----------



## Corradobrit1

Gjackson98 said:


> View attachment 74012
> 
> 
> saw this today


Good to see someone has their priorities straight, although I may have to question their choice of beverage. Budweiser?


----------



## Michi

Corradobrit1 said:


> Good to see someone has their priorities straight, although I may have to question their choice of beverage. Budweiser?


It's only marginally worse than water


----------



## Kippington

Michi said:


> (except Iran, probably)


Yep, mass graves surrounded by lime are a bit of a tell-tale sign...


----------



## zizirex

Hi, kinda newbie here, want to ask, why people are stocking up the Toilet paper? is that something that very necessary for North American or white people? I do understand if people stocking up some dry & can food, but toilet paper?


----------



## Michi

zizirex said:


> I do understand if people stocking up some dry & can food, but toilet paper?


Toilet paper is your friend, man!

You can use it for its normal purpose, no problem. In addition:

Getting cold? Mound it into a pile, put a match to it, and warm yourself.
If you are still cold when going to sleep, wrap yourself in TP and stay warm.
Need to remove some make-up? TP is your friend!
Need to remove some nail polish? A bit of TP and acetone will fix it in a jiffy.
Got a spill of something on the floor? Not a problem, a bit of TP will clean it up right away.
Got the sneezes? TP will catch your snot and, on top of that, save everyone around you from catching coronavirus, too.
Hungry? TP, a bit of hot water and a bit of salt and pepper, and you got yourself a filling meal.
And, beyond all that, TP is biodegradable and environmentally friendly. So, the more you use, the more you are doing to help save the planet. (Ideally, every single person in the world would use at least a ton of toilet paper every year; it would solve all our environmental problems, with so many people doing so much to save the planet…)

So, as you can see, when the apocalypse comes, the very first thing you want to do is stock up on toilet paper.

It's only logical, isn't it?


----------



## HRC_64

At a technical/chemistry level...certain products (like bleach) will not disinfect properly/efficiently 
in the presence of soil/drt contaminants....

The point is a two-stage cleaning process is SOP / protocol in a lot of
sanitization regimes...

SImilarl to why you wash hands and don't rely on hand sanitzer,
the "cleaning" step is typically more important thant "sanitization"
if the latter starts on a dirty surface.

OK, back to regularly scheduled sarcasm 

PS bleach is a bid to strong for use/recommend on your bare skin, 
so please use the appropriate protocols for your relevant surfaces.


----------



## MowgFace

Bill13 said:


> Remember that this virus seems to cause many more issues for those above 60 and Italy has larger proportion of this age group than most countries. It's similar to the Chinese having so many male smokers increasing the mortality rate. It will not be the same in the US.



The US does have crazy high diabetes and obesity rates, though. Two risk factors that contribute to a more severe case


----------



## Codered

Latest figures in italy. Check the statistics to understand what is going on
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
If we look at cases with a final outcome you really get scared by the percentage.


----------



## David7777777777

here in Austin with Sxsw cancelled it's been a little bit more stressful for allot of our service industry because so many people really rely on this month to catch up and get ahead. 

obviously it was the same thing to do but it will be interesting to see how many of the 500k people that came last year say f$&- it and come to town anyways.

one day they cancelled the events and the next the city was all over the news telling everyone to go out and support local bars, clubs and restaurants. . 
such an odd time for all of us watching and figuring out what the hell is going on and what happens next. 

all the stores here have been a mad house but interestingly enough the liquor stores are getting cleared out to....
so apparently we haven't lost our priorities during all this going on! lol. 

this is the best time to watch your diet, rest up and make your self care and health a priority. its certainly made me appreciate allot of things.


----------



## Matus

For all the statistics I have seen, I really miss the following information:


A random check of say 1000 healthy looking people on streets in a city where there are already multiple cases.
A statistics of total number of tests made in a given country - how many were positive
A better description of how the disease develops in a given individual 
To me the statistics of infected and deceased are only a part of the story and basically offer themselves for intentional or unintentional miss interpretation


----------



## lowercasebill

My county has been shut down by the state governor
The announcement came out at 3 pm Thurs. The state runs the liquor stores hence State stores. 
My local state store did $81,000 .
S20,000 more than Christmas Eve.


----------



## Michi

Codered said:


> Latest figures in italy. Check the statistics to understand what is going on
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
> If we look at cases with a final outcome you really get scared by the percentage.


Italy also has a population that is skewed towards old people, more so than most other countries: almost a quarter of the population is over 65, which explains the high mortality rate there.


----------



## Michi

lowercasebill said:


> My local state store did $81,000 .
> S20,000 more than Christmas Eve.


Might as well stop drinking with a bang! 

PS: If the choice is between booze and TP, I'll take booze any day!


----------



## lowercasebill

As i started this i feel somewhat responsible. There is a reason the cdc and who say hand sanitation and hand washing with sanitation ALWAYS being first. Once you leave the house if you dont sanitize your doomed. Given the virus lives for up to 9 days on metal and plastic your car your door knobs and the faucet knobs are contaminated. Washing when you return home leaves your hands clean until you turn off the faucet. at that point you are contaminated again and then you unzip.... 
My credentials..... 41 years practicing sterile technique. 
Also most of us do not have dirty hands and our homes are not dirty. Yes bleach and other sanitizers are less effective in the presence of dirt (blood and body fluids) how much dirt is on your cupboard handles?
Sanitize before you get back in the truck.. I wipe down every thing that comes into my house .
Be safe be smart


----------



## lowercasebill

Michi said:


> Might as well stop drinking with a bang!
> 
> PS: If the choice is between booze and TP, I'll take booze any day!


I have booze and toilet paper!


----------



## Michi

lowercasebill said:


> I have booze and toilet paper!


Stop showing off!


----------



## larrybard

I've read a number of references to the duration of the virus on surfaces being 9 days. I don't have any idea of the source of such "facts" but believe the most recent studies have established the likelihood that it's at most about half that.

"The experiment was led by researchers from Princeton, UCLA and the National Institutes of Health. The researchers involved set out to learn how long the virus can survive when sprayed on different surfaces and in the air.
*
"*They found that the virus can survive up to three days on plastic and stainless steel, and up to 24 hours on cardboard, and up to four hours on copper surfaces. In a second part of the experiment, the researchers used a spray can-like device to spritz the virus into the air and discovered that the virus can survive suspended in a fine mist for up to three hours, though longer times were not tested."


----------



## lowercasebill

9 days was the original estimate weeks ago. Your updated research is a welcome change. Thank you for posting.


----------



## Xenif

There are a lot of false claims that the virus can "live" up to 9 days on some surfaces. First of, one can argue all day long if a virus is actually alive or not since its just a bunch of nucleic acid wrapped up in ball of proteins. The reason for the "9 days" is probably the limit of the test they use, Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RTPCR), which is very sensitive and can detect the smallest amount of viral rna. But just because the can detect the viral rna dosen't mean there was an actual infectious viron. 

Corona type virus does seem to remain infectious on surfaces for a long time (2-3 days at most) though, which is why its important to constantly disinfect stuff.


----------



## Nemo

The highest case mortality rates seem to be in places where hospitals became overwhelmed. This is probably much more important than demographics. This makes sense as about 14% of people need oxygen (i.e.: hospitalization), 5% Need ventilation (i.e.: ICU) and 2% need ECMO (heart lung bypass) or they will die. If there are too many sick people, many won't be able to get the care they need and will therefore die.

Mortality rate in Hubei is around 4.5%. Similar pattern for Italy and Iran.

Mortality rate for the rest of China is around 0.9% South Korea about 0.6%. Neither were overwhelmed.

Social distancing, Hubei style stops the virus spreading. More lax social distancing will slow it and possibly allow the health system to keep up. The earlier that social distancing is instituted, the more effective it is. On Jan 21 in Hubei, there were less than 100 reported new cases. The lockdown occurred on Jan 23 when there were only 300 reported new cases per day. Retrospective analysis indicates that there were 1500 actual new infections on Jan 21 and 2500 new infections on Jan 23. Although the reported new cases continued to rise until Feb 3, the actual new infections immediately plateued (between 2500-3000 each day between Jan 24-28) then began to drop rapidly.

Hubei's health care system was still overwhelmed depite building 2 new hospitals. This suggests that you need to lockdown before you get to 100 new reported cases per day if you want to avoid your hospitals becoming overwhelmed.

I hope that everybody stays safe.


----------



## lowercasebill

Thanks to all for timely and accurate information.


----------



## WildBoar

ian said:


> But @inferno, I think it’s missing the whole point to say that you can’t do anything about it, so you should just live your life as usual. Taking some simple precautions can decrease your chances of contracting it significantly. And moreover, if you do take these precautions, you’re contributing (in some small way) to taming the spread of the disease. Ie, if everyone does this, then there will actually be fewer deaths. Instead, you’re posting “don’t worry about it, just live life as usual”, which will contribute to the spread. (Well, at least it would if a significant number of people read this thread and took your advice.) Anyway, this is all obvious.


No ****. You would think that taking a few minor steps each day to help reduce the potential of catching/ spreading would be a no-brainer. Versus 'too effing bad, I'm not changing anything and I do not care if I pass anything on to you". That is an effin shtty attitude if you ask me.


----------



## HRC_64

larrybard said:


> They found that the virus can survive up to three days on plastic and stainless steel, and up to 24 hours on cardboard, and up to four hours on copper surfaces. In a second part of the experiment, the researchers used a spray can-like device to spritz the virus into the air and discovered that the virus can survive suspended in a fine mist for up to three hours, though longer times were not tested."



Heads up AFAIK this is a limited test for airborne only transmission . Nebulizer means water droplets or whateve is meant to recreat breathing or possible sneezing. This is not the only way to transmit the pathogen, since it pysically sheds as well. Environmental contamination can happen several ways and its not inconsitent to say one way is 1-3 days and other ways are 2-9 days. {etc}, so the test results are not necesssarily exaustive of the whole spectrum of possibilites.

For example....A normal bathroom could be easily contaminated by (1) aersolized/airborne transmission, and that (1) could last 3 hours in the air and 3 days on the stainless steel surfaces. Its also likewise possible that (2) the bathroom is soiled by fecal contamination whcih could last for 2-9 days on surfaces unless the physical dirt is cleans and later disinfected.

My interpretation could be wrong, of course, but I would ask anyone reading this cover this broader spectrum of possibilities.


----------



## Luftmensch

inferno said:


> there is nothing neither you nor me can do to really prevent it.



Don't be so fatalistic....



ian said:


> But @inferno, I think it’s missing the whole point to say that you can’t do anything about it, so you should just live your life as usual. Taking some simple precautions can decrease your chances of contracting it significantly. And moreover, if you do take these precautions, you’re contributing (in some small way) to taming the spread of the disease. Ie, if everyone does this, then there will actually be fewer deaths. Instead, you’re posting “don’t worry about it, just live life as usual”, which will contribute to the spread. (Well, at least it would if a significant number of people read this thread and took your advice.) Anyway, this is all obvious.



+1. Elegantly put.

@inferno, read literally you are correct; we can't prevent the spread. But you are incorrect on the tone of your post... we _can_ slow the spread. This is the whole point of increasing public awareness of hygiene, encouraging social distancing... and eventually shutting cities down. These measures reduce the transmission of the disease. 

Read up on the basic reproduction number (R0). This is what it is all about... By slowing the spread we can stretch out our hospital resources and ensure people who need critical care are more likely to get it. When you reach the point where there are more critically ill than facilities to take care of them, triaging will take place. This is a nasty place to be in - people who may have survived with a little boost are now more likely to die. 

Where you are correct is; we don't need to lose our nerve over this. The more at risk you are, the more serious you aught consider preventative measures.


----------



## lowercasebill

I addition to sanitizing everything i touch i am using an ozone generator in the bathroom.


----------



## Luftmensch

... another rambling thought....

Going back to the basic reproduction number. It is situations like these where we all aught to reflect on what we want out of our governments**. Policies like universal health care and sick leave are as much about public health (reducing R0) as they are about care for the individual. In crises like this, policies such as income assistance so that people _can_ self-quarantine without going bankrupt should exist. Forcing people to choose between public health and their own financial interests is a losing recipe in a pandemic.

** Trying not to be too political here


----------



## lowercasebill

Politics aside that is what is happening here as the county is basically on lockdown. And then there is the conundrum.... Please stay home and don't forget support the local businesses.


----------



## WildBoar

lowercasebill said:


> I addition to sanitizing everything i touch i am using an ozone generator in the bathroom.


Interesting. To date I have been using a methane generator; I wonder how they compare...


----------



## Luftmensch

Since you asked:



lowercasebill said:


> I would like to ask you all to identify your country state county for the benefit of us all.



Australia. 

It is perhaps less interesting to talk about the infection numbers here than how the authorities are responding. Off the top of my head:

Australia does not have widespread infection. It is (currently) documented to be in all but one state/territory.
Travel ban for China, Iran, Italy and South Korea (foreign nationals coming into Australia)
'Do not travel' recommendation for these countries (Australians leaving)
General recommendation of no unnecessary travel
Advice to limit events to 500 people
Doctors are calling for large events to be banned - currently it is just advice and the response is voluntary. Some sports events are running televised with empty stadiums, others are packed full.

~$17B AUD economic stimulus as the economy is in a parlous state
More companies preparing for their staff to work from home
No cities have been 'shut down' (an unlikely scenario here I think)


----------



## lowercasebill

Thanks


----------



## labor of love

Iran has political motivations for wanting to keep information about what’s happening there somewhat concealed. It relates to sanctions, medical supplies, political leverage that can be used against them and the continuing failure of diplomacy between them and other countries. It’s all very political and shouldn’t be discussed here.
But yes, I agree that the degree to which the virus is spreading there is not certain and is that intentional.


----------



## playero

Just be aware that some countries or places do not keep the statistics up to date. Good or bad if you tabulate the numbers it will show. There are worse virus around but they are controled like influenza which sometimes is similar to this. Keep the good hygiene and keep vitamins and good defense in your body. Stay sharp and stay safe.


----------



## JDC

A good source for statistics in the US is https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
Worldwide live data: https://ncov2019.live/


----------



## Matus

This was brought to my attention 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1237020518781460480.html


----------



## lowercasebill

Wow thanks for posting. Looks like i will take a tooth pick when i venture out again


----------



## CiderBear

I'm sure we all have seen flu-like symptoms of covid-19 listed in bullet points, but this is the most comprehensive and easy to understand overview of the progression that I have seen so far: https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/n...vid-19-infection-process-symptoms/5009057002/


----------



## lowercasebill

My state has state run liquor stores since the state buys we are the largest purchaser of alcoholic beverages in the world .
Prices are higher than anywhere else in the U.S.
that said normal hours tommorow limited hrs monday and closed until further notice beginning Tues


----------



## WildBoar

Alcohol kills germs


----------



## bkultra

Pretty sure if alcohol is the key, I'm untouchable.


----------



## nevrknow

bkultra said:


> Pretty sure if alcohol is the key, I'm untouchable.



Yep, I’m in the same group. We’re clear!


----------



## Nemo

Luftmensch said:


> Since you asked:
> 
> 
> 
> Australia.
> 
> It is perhaps less interesting to talk about the infection numbers here than how the authorities are responding. Off the top of my head:
> 
> Australia does not have widespread infection. It is (currently) documented to be in all but one state/territory.
> Travel ban for China, Iran, Italy and South Korea (foreign nationals coming into Australia)
> 'Do not travel' recommendation for these countries (Australians leaving)
> General recommendation of no unnecessary travel
> Advice to limit events to 500 people
> Doctors are calling for large events to be banned - currently it is just advice and the response is voluntary. Some sports events are running televised with empty stadiums, others are packed full.
> 
> ~$17B AUD economic stimulus as the economy is in a parlous state
> More companies preparing for their staff to work from home
> No cities have been 'shut down' (an unlikely scenario here I think)



I'm also in Australia and I work in healthcare.

I'm very concerned that the Federal Government's advice is vastly inadequate to nip this in the bud. I just watched the federal Minister for Health and the federal Chief Medical Officer interviewed on TV. My take is that they essentially said that there is currently very little risk in Australia but they will let us know when there is. I feel as though they are being a bit blasé. The Chief Medical Officer actually said that it's still OK to go to the movies and to shake hands. I shake my head.

Australia has ~250 known cases today, the vast majority of which have had overseas travel or direct Covid contact. However, testing in Australia has been heavily restricted to:
1) People returning from China, South Korea and Iran who have gone on to develop symptoms
2) Direct contacts of known cases who have gone on to develop symptoms.
So there has been no way to detect community spread. It's like we are shining a torch on the highest risk group but the status rest of the population can't be seen, so we have no warning when community spread takes off, as it inevitably will (or has). There is most likely an iceberg of community spread which is still under the radar. The first we will know of it is when large numbers of people die.

It's likely that there is already or very soon will be significant under the radar community spread of the disease. If you wait until there are widespread deaths or even widespread recognised cases before you institute a lockdown, you have missed the boat:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

(Edited to add: this article is not written by an epidemiologist and is not peer reviewed, so should be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism, if not a grain of salt. Having said that, the underlying numbers and conclusions do seem to be playing out to an extent).

I have cancelled 2 education meetings in the last week. I'm highly exposed in my area of healthcare so I have isolated myself from my family. We have pulled our children out of school.

Even if there is not yet widespread community transmission, a travel ban to a few countries is currently inadequate. The virus is spreading worldwide. In fact China and South Korea have almost controlled community spread with stringent social distancing and may at this stage be safer than many countries which are not banned. Our Home Affairs minister recently returned from the USA and developed Covid19 a few days later.

I will be amazed if a lockdown doesn't occur at some stage. Earlier is much much much much much better. For health outcomes and for how quickly the economy will recover. Every day counts. You cannot allow your hospitals to become overwhelmed or many people (including many heath care professionals) will die.

I suspect that this disease will be a massive hit to the economy. I'd be very surprised and relieved if there is not a recession. $17B will be a drop in the ocean if the disease becomes widespread.

I'm pretty worried that the tsunami will hit soon. It looks to me like the water is receding into the ocean. I am certainly not as blazé as our Department of Health appears to be. Nor are many of my colleagues.


----------



## Nemo

bkultra said:


> Pretty sure if alcohol is the key, I'm untouchable.



I appreciate the humour here.

However, on a more serious note, I am going to severely restrict alcohol intake until this pandemic is waning, for 2 reasons:
1) I'm going to be working my backside off for probably 6-9 months so I'm going to get run down and I'll need to look after myself as much as possible.
2) I want to be as healthy as I can when I get exposed.


----------



## ian

Nemo said:


> I appreciate the humour here.
> 
> However, on a more serious note, I am going to severely restrict alcohol intake until this pandemic is waning, for 2 reasons:
> 1) I'm going to be working my backside off for probably 6-9 months so I'm going to get run down and I'll need to look after myself as much as possible.
> 2) I want to be as healthy as I can when I get exposed.



I second that. For me, 8 hrs of sleep every night, regular vitamin D (I had low levels when last checked), regular exercise, eating/drinking healthier than usual. I feel for healthcare workers, who need such self care more than anyone. I hope you have the time for adequate sleep.


----------



## Nemo

ian said:


> I second that. For me, 8 hrs of sleep every night, regular vitamin D (I had low levels when last checked), regular exercise, eating/drinking healthier than usual. I feel for healthcare workers, who need such self care more than anyone. I hope you have the time for adequate sleep.


Thanks, but if Northern Italy and Hubei are anything to go by, I often won't.


----------



## ian

Nemo said:


> Thanks, but if Northern Italy and Hubei are anything to go by, I often won't.



I was afraid that would be the case. Best of luck in this trying time.


----------



## bkultra

For the record I'm in the best shape of my life. I was 6' 205lbs, now I'm 168lbs. (Lost the weight over 3 months). OCD can be a powerful tool


----------



## Kippington

Nemo said:


> ...they essentially said that there is currently very little risk in Australia but they will let us know when there is.


----------



## labor of love

Kippington said:


>


I’ve worked that shift at work many times lol


----------



## Kippington

labor of love said:


> I’ve worked that shift at work many times lol


Yeah, but it's on a whole other level for the the poor guys in the healthcare system. It's like when chefs see a large group of walk-in's coming on an already busy night, but it's an order of magnitude bigger, spread out over weeks/months... and it's death instead of dinner.
I don't blame Nemo for voicing his concerns. Looking into the near future for him and his colleagues, things are about to go crazy. The scenes below have already happened in a few countries in the last month, and others can learn from their experience to avoid it. But too many governments are not taking the preventative measures seriously, and are instead waiting to react to a sudden surge in cases - which is at this point inevitable.


----------



## panda

I'm immune.


----------



## Luftmensch

Nemo said:


> I'm also in Australia and I work in healthcare.
> 
> I'm very concerned that the Federal Government's advice is vastly inadequate to nip this in the bud. I just watched the federal Minister for Health and the federal Chief Medical Officer interviewed on TV. My take is that they essentially said that there is currently very little risk in Australia but they will let us know when there is. I feel as though they are being a bit blasé. The Chief Medical Officer actually said that it's still OK to go to the movies and to shake hands. I shake my head.
> 
> Australia has ~250 known cases today, the vast majority of which have had overseas travel or direct Covid contact. However, testing in Australia has been heavily restricted to:
> 1) People returning from China, South Korea and Iran who have gone on to develop symptoms
> 2) Direct contacts of known cases who have gone on to develop symptoms.
> So there has been no way to detect community spread. It's like we are shining a torch on the highest risk group but the status rest of the population can't be seen, so we have no warning when community spread takes off, as it inevitably will (or has). There is most likely an iceberg of community spread which is still under the radar. The first we will know of it is when large numbers of people die.
> 
> It's likely that there is already or very soon will be significant under the radar community spread of the disease. If you wait until there are widespread deaths or even widespread recognised cases before you institute a lockdown, you have missed the boat:
> 
> https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
> 
> I have cancelled 2 education meetings in the last week. I'm highly exposed in my area of healthcare so I have isolated myself from my family. We have pulled our children out of school.
> 
> Even if there is not yet widespread community transmission, a travel ban to a few countries is currently inadequate. The virus is spreading worldwide. In fact China and South Korea have almost controlled community spread with stringent social distancing and may at this stage be safer than many countries which are not banned. Our Home Affairs minister recently returned from the USA and developed Covid19 a few days later.
> 
> I will be amazed if a lockdown doesn't occur at some stage. Earlier is much much much much much better. For health outcomes and for how quickly the economy will recover. Every day counts. You cannot allow your hospitals to become overwhelmed or many people (including many heath care professionals) will die.
> 
> I suspect that this disease will be a massive hit to the economy. I'd be very surprised and relieved if there is not a recession. $17B will be a drop in the ocean if the disease becomes widespread.
> 
> I'm pretty worried that the tsunami will hit soon. It looks to me like the water is receding into the ocean. I am certainly not as blazé as our Department of Health appears to be. Nor are many of my colleagues.



I agree. I was trying to be as neutral as possible. Given the available information, Australia's expertise and her close links with infected countries, I believe the response has been lethargic. Not abjectly terrible... but far from fulfilling our potential.



Nemo said:


> I will be amazed if a lockdown doesn't occur at some stage.



I wonder about this. I _don't_ believe a lockdown will occur.... At least we'd need to settle on what this definition means. Our capital cities are too sprawling. In a 'city' like Sydney, what boarders are there to lock down? The Sydney basin is bigger than the Netherlands - you can't really shutdown parts of it. The extent of the government to restrict freedom of movement in open democracies also tends to be lower than in authoritarian type governments.

If you mean a situation where the government chooses to suspend schools and makes its current advice on public gatherings binding (e.g closures of museums, libraries, concerts, events), then sure... I think it will happen.



Nemo said:


> I suspect that this disease will be a massive hit to the economy. I'd be very surprised and relieved if there is not a recession. $17B will be a drop in the ocean if the disease becomes widespread.



Absolutely... I dropped hints of political commentary in my previous post. Australia's economy was circling the drain anyway... before the bush fires and before the pandemic. Real household disposable income per capita has been standing still for a decade. This is a consequence of policy not bad luck (bush fires & pandemic). So yes... Australia is in a weak position to weather this storm. It will hurt - it already _has_ hurt our super...


----------



## Luftmensch

Oh!.....

.... And when we all have to work from home... I am glad we setup the critical, future-proofing infrastructure to do so. Pouring $51B AUD onto the 'mixed technology' NBN dumpster fire was great. Without it, I doubt we could have reached that lofty goal of 50th fastest internet in the world.


----------



## Nemo

Luftmensch said:


> I wonder about this. I _don't_ believe a lockdown will occur.... At least we'd need to settle on what this definition means. Our capital cities are too sprawling. In a 'city' like Sydney, what boarders are there to lock down? The Sydney basin is bigger than the Netherlands - you can't really shutdown parts of it. The extent of the government to restrict freedom of movement in open democracies also tends to be lower than in authoritarian type governments.
> 
> If you mean a situation where the government chooses to suspend schools and makes its current advice on public gatherings binding (e.g closures of museums, libraries, concerts, events), then sure... I think it will happen.
> 
> Absolutely... I dropped hints of political commentary in my previous post. Australia's economy was circling the drain anyway... before the bush fires and before the pandemic. Real household disposable income per capita has been standing still for a decade. This is a consequence of policy not bad luck (bush fires & pandemic). So yes... Australia is in a weak position to weather this storm. It will hurt - it already _has_ hurt our super...


The Australian Federal Government actually has very draconian quarantine laws available to it. Using them will probably be politically unpopular right up until the point that lots of people die. Or maybe when you can't have your elective surgery because the hospitals are snowed under with Covid. Or your emergency surgery. Or maybe even your caesarian section...

They may restrict travel between places. However, what seems more effective (and what I was really getting at) seems to social distancing measures and I believe that the laws also provide an enforcement mechanism for that. This includes things like shutting down schools, cinemas, restaurants, etc but also enforcing things like minimum distances between people in public places, which is one of the things that they are doing in Italy right now.

I don't know if it lets them weld doors closed, though.

Unless you want your super in the next few years, I reckon it will recover. What we really need is at the end of all this for confidence to pick up quickly again so that we don't have high unemployment which causes more uncertainty which impairs investment, which causes more unemployment... in a kind of vicious cycle.


----------



## Michi

Nemo said:


> Australia has ~250 known cases today


And yesterday, it was 200, so we are currently looking at a 1.25 growth rate. Meaning that, if this rate stays the same, we'll have 1,200 infections a week from now, and 5,600 two weeks from now.


----------



## Nemo

Michi said:


> And yesterday, it was 200, so we are currently looking at a 1.25 growth rate. Meaning that, if this rate stays the same, we'll have 1,200 infections a week from now, and 5,600 two weeks from now.


That's assuming that we know about all of the cases. If there are in fact 2500 infections in Aus at the moment, does that mean that we are lookimg at 12,000 in a week and 56,000 in 2 weeks?


----------



## Michi

Nemo said:


> If there are in fact 2500 infections in Aus at the moment, does that mean that we are lookimg at 12,000 in a week and 56,000 in 2 weeks?


Yes, it does.


----------



## zizirex

Michi said:


> Toilet paper is your friend, man!
> 
> You can use it for its normal purpose, no problem. In addition:
> 
> Getting cold? Mound it into a pile, put a match to it, and warm yourself.
> If you are still cold when going to sleep, wrap yourself in TP and stay warm.
> Need to remove some make-up? TP is your friend!
> Need to remove some nail polish? A bit of TP and acetone will fix it in a jiffy.
> Got a spill of something on the floor? Not a problem, a bit of TP will clean it up right away.
> Got the sneezes? TP will catch your snot and, on top of that, save everyone around you from catching coronavirus, too.
> Hungry? TP, a bit of hot water and a bit of salt and pepper, and you got yourself a filling meal.
> And, beyond all that, TP is biodegradable and environmentally friendly. So, the more you use, the more you are doing to help save the planet. (Ideally, every single person in the world would use at least a ton of toilet paper every year; it would solve all our environmental problems, with so many people doing so much to save the planet…)
> 
> So, as you can see, when the apocalypse comes, the very first thing you want to do is stock up on is toilet paper.
> 
> It's only logical, isn't it?



Well i'll be damned, that is one hell of a Sales Pitch...


----------



## Michi

Solid explanations from someone who is competent:


----------



## Luftmensch

I am a few hours late to the news - but today the government pulled out a bigger stick. Entries in Australia are _required_ to self quarantine for 14 days and mass gatherings (above 500) are banned. Previously, violating quarantine advice had no consequences. Now it appears penalties can be applied for ignoring the requirement - but the extent of these penalties/powers is opaque. It is up to the states and territories.



Nemo said:


> They may restrict travel between places. However, what seems more effective (and what I was really getting at) seems to social distancing measures and I believe that the laws also provide an enforcement mechanism for that. This includes things like shutting down schools, cinemas, restaurants, etc but also enforcing things like minimum distances between people in public places, which is one of the things that they are doing in Italy right now.



Absolutely... and the new mandatory quarantine is difficult to enforce. It is still relying on good faith actors. I'd prefer to see more travel bans (e.g. America). Shutting down non-essential parts of the economy like entertainment seems like a no-brainer - that should have happened earlier. I think shutting down schools is a difficult one. I am mixed. Best leave it to the experts! Apparently they are still comfortable with it.




Nemo said:


> I don't know if it lets them weld doors closed, though.



I doubt it:

https://theconversation.com/explain...ntine-people-in-a-coronavirus-outbreak-132877
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...lian-government-have-to-respond-to-the-threat
https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/ohp-ahmppi.htm

It looks like the laws are based around compelling people to act in response to public health requirements - if people refuse, power exists to detain them. There are also powers to declare an area a 'health zone' which would place requirements on people entering/exiting the zone. While having such emergency powers is reasonable, it is fair to have concern over what independent oversight is applied when compelling people to act.

I originally equated 'lockdown' with the 'weld the doors shut' scenario. I _do_ think an Italy (now France & Spain) style lock down could be applied to a city like Sydney. But it is worth understanding what that is... people can still go to work (if their work is open) and go to the shops/pharmacy. In my mind 'shut down' is more appropriate... but perhaps I am being too nit-picky about language!


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> Solid explanations from someone who is competent:




A national treasure!


----------



## Codered

Guys australia si big. Why don't you go camping somewhere where you are completely isolated for like 3 weeks. Think of it as your early vacation with the family. Get some canned food some supplies and just chill in the nature. Our ancestors survived in woods and caves with primitive gear. If this is getting out of hand why don't we go back to nature?
P.s. Don't forget your knives at home or the radio


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> the extent of these penalties/powers is opaque. It is up to the states and territories.


AUD 13,000 in Queensland.


Luftmensch said:


> Apparently they are still comfortable with it.


Have a look at the video with Norman Swan I posted earlier. They shouldn't be comfortable with it.

Neither should we be comfortable with the advice from our health minister (this morning, no less) that it's still OK to go to the gym. Sure thing: I lie down on a bench to push up my bar bells, sweating all over the place and, 30 seconds after I'm done, the next person comes along, lies down on that same bench, and does the same thing. Definitely no problem at all here that anyone could spot 

The response in Australia is permanently two weeks behind the actual state of affairs. Because that is how long it takes for a change to propagate through the delay of incubation period and infection of the next generation of people. Any action we take now takes two weeks to show any effect. And our government insists that "we will take additional measures once the numbers warrant it." Except that the numbers they use are permanently behind by two weeks. Two days ago, our prime minister assured everyone that it was perfectly OK to go to the footy. Into a stadium with 40,000 people in it. Good job, man!

By the time we see the numbers change, we need to think about not those numbers, but what those numbers will be two weeks from now, and take measures to deal with the numbers as they will be in two weeks' time. But we are not doing that.


----------



## Luftmensch

Codered said:


> Why don't you go camping somewhere where you are completely isolated for like 3 weeks.



That is where the true terror lies! Snakes, spiders, crocodiles, drop-bears...


----------



## Michi

Codered said:


> Why don't you go camping somewhere where you are completely isolated for like 3 weeks.


Because, in most places, that's called "squatting". There are also other minor technicalities, such as having enough water in the outback, and that grandma's wheelchair doesn't work so well when navigating rocky ravines. Never mind the insulin that her husband needs due to his diabetes…


----------



## Gjackson98

I wonder how soon we will start seen toilet paper on BST


----------



## Michi

Gjackson98 said:


> I wonder how soon we will start seen toilet paper on BST


Huh? We already did


----------



## ian

Gjackson98 said:


> I wonder how soon we will start seen toilet paper on BST



3 days ago?


----------



## Gjackson98

Michi said:


> Huh? We already did



Oh man.. I missed out again


----------



## Codered

Gjackson98 said:


> I wonder how soon we will start seen toilet paper on BST


Just use soap and shower on high pressure and hose it.


----------



## Michi

Gjackson98 said:


> Oh man.. I missed out again


Goes to show that you are not paying enough attention to KKF. It is right here that you get your most reliable and up-to-date source of news, wisdom, and truth!


----------



## Gjackson98

Codered said:


> Just use soap and shower on high pressure and hose it.



What if I run out of soap ?


----------



## tgfencer

Not that anyone's asking, but I can tell you all from experience that a bunch of cotton tea towels or similar can pretty effectively be cut into strips/squares and used as TP, bagged, then run through the washing machine for re-use.


----------



## Michi

Get some TP. It fixes everything, apparently.


----------



## Michi

tgfencer said:


> Not that anyone's asking, but I can tell you all from experience that a bunch of cotton tea towels or similar can pretty effectively be cut into strips/squares and used as TP, bagged, then run through the washing machine for re-use.


Yup. It's the same thing as washing nappies. There might even be some parents left these days who know what that means. Not that I'm holding my breath…


----------



## lowercasebill

Well written and timely article about social distancing

https://medium.com/@ariadnelabs/social-distancing-this-is-not-a-snow-day-ac21d7fa78b4


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> AUD 13,000 in Queensland.



True! Not sure what it is down south though...



Michi said:


> Have a look at the video with Norman Swan I posted earlier. They shouldn't be comfortable with it.



I did . I have also been following the Corona-cast. Dr Swan does err on the side of shutting schools down earlier - but he is hesitant as it is a 'difficult decision'. Greg Hunt is one of the better performers of that rabble (not that it says much). Through all his fumbled advice and delivery I am trusting that he has received this advice from proper experts. Perhaps that is naive of me! I would not be surprised if we eventually see schools shutdown soon. Universities as well. Further travel bans would probably be appropriate (America? Spain? France? UK?)



Michi said:


> Two days ago, our prime minister assured everyone that it was perfectly OK to go to the footy. Into a stadium with 40,000 people in it. Good job, man!



Yeah... look this was just silly (go the Sharks though). They should have gotten on this earlier. Shutting down live entertainment is disappointing but seems like easy, low-hanging fruit to me.




Michi said:


> By the time we see the numbers change, we need to think about not those numbers, but what those numbers will be two weeks from now, and take measures to deal with the numbers as they will be in two weeks' time. But we are not doing that.



I can only hope that they have access to data and modelling we do not. That they are trying to walk that fine line of balancing health measures against civic disruption. Waiting for the last reasonable minute to deploy disruptive measures. Again, this could be naive of me. I also say this as somebody who is very much not a fan of the current government - so this isn't said out of partisanship. I certainly don't envy the people making the decisions right now...


----------



## Luftmensch

Nemo said:


> Unless you want your super in the next few years, I reckon it will recover. What we really need is at the end of all this for confidence to pick up quickly again so that we don't have high unemployment which causes more uncertainty which impairs investment, which causes more unemployment... in a kind of vicious cycle.



Forgot to respond to this point! I will be fine. I have several decades to recover... Elder members of my family/social network do not. I think it has shaken them up a bit - they will have to rethink retirement.

We may sail through this and bounce back to maintain our mediocre economic performance. But the economy was in poor shape before this - it is vulnerable. It might not bounce back. In fact, a worst case scenario might be the recession we avoided more than 10 years ago. I have no idea what scenario awaits - it fascinates me...


----------



## ian

tgfencer said:


> Not that anyone's asking, but I can tell you all from experience that a bunch of cotton tea towels or similar can pretty effectively be cut into strips/squares and used as TP, bagged, then run through the washing machine for re-use.





Michi said:


> Yup. It's the same thing as washing nappies. There might even be some parents left these days who know what that means. Not that I'm holding my breath…



My bathroom actually came with a bidet. Funny, I didn’t even realize it at first.







On a separate note, has anyone noticed that there have been a lot of gross threads recently on KKF? Maybe the mods should crack down on cracks about ***-cracks.


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> I certainly don't envy the people making the decisions right now...


Right. Worst job in the world right now.



Luftmensch said:


> We may sail through this and bounce back to maintain our mediocre economic performance. But the economy was in poor shape before this - it is vulnerable. It might not bounce back. In fact, a worst case scenario might be the recession we avoided more than 10 years ago.


A recession is a certainty at this point. We'll have small businesses go to the wall by the thousands. (They make up roughly half of Australia's GDP.)

Another consequence: Australia's next government won't be liberal/national. Not necessarily because they are doing a poor job (even though they are), but because, with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, everyone will be poring over the statistics and point out what a terrible job they did at making decisions. Never mind that the decisions that really matter are the ones made by everyone. Such as whether to go to the footy or not.

But blaming the government is a popular past-time Down Under.


----------



## CiderBear

ian said:


> On a separate note, has anyone noticed that there have been a lot of gross threads recently on KKF? Maybe the mods should crack down on cracks about ***-cracks.



I think most people don't realize that KKF has a pretty robust Ignore feature. I love it.


----------



## Michi

CiderBear said:


> I think most people don't realize that KKF has a pretty robust Ignore feature. I love it.


It has an ignore feature?! Please tell me how I can ignore you! 

(That was a joke!)


----------



## ian

CiderBear said:


> I think most people don't realize that KKF has a pretty robust Ignore feature. I love it.



Too true. It’s integrated seamlessly with your brain—- you don’t even need to press a button. That’s high level tech.


----------



## Michi

ian said:


> Too true. It’s integrated seamlessly with your brain—- you don’t even need to press a button.


Did someone just say something?


----------



## Michi

Germany closes its borders with France, Austria, and Switzerland:

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deut...chweiz-a-9910fb81-f635-4be5-8138-bcbcbfd491d4


----------



## WildBoar

Michi said:


> But blaming the government is a popular past-time Down Under.


Popular? In the US it is an art form right now. Nothing better than a large amount of people who want the gov't to tell them what to do versus using common sense. Do I need to be told not to put myself in the middle of a crowd of 50 people right now? No, I do not need to wait until the gov't tells me it would not be prudent. Do I need to have the gov't tell me to wash my hands? Well thank Dog they did, as otherwise I probably would not, and that would be bad since we ran out of toilet paper and need to use our left hands (or is that right hands? I'll try to remember after I put down this cheeseburger I am currently holding up to my mouth)


----------



## Michi

We made the call to largely self-isolate ten days ago. Not because I believe in doom, but because I know something about exponential growth.

We'll sit it out, with limited contact to people. Not fun, and I'll probable go stir-crazy at some point. But, the longer we can delay getting infected (as we will eventually, with near certainty), the better for everyone, including ourselves.

Almost everyone getting infected at some point is inevitable now. But we can act to slow that down as much as possible and give everyone a better chance.


----------



## ian

WildBoar said:


> Popular? In the US it is an art form right now. Nothing better than a large amount of people who want the gov't to tell them what to do versus using common sense. Do I need to be told not to put myself in the middle of a crowd of 50 people right now? No, I do not need to wait until the gov't tells me it would not be prudent. Do I need to have the gov't tell me to wash my hands? Well thank Dog they did, as otherwise I probably would not, and that would be bad since we ran out of toilet paper and need to use our left hands (or is that right hands? I'll try to remember after I put down this cheeseburger I am currently holding up to my mouth)



Fair enough, but having some consistent, accurate and measured direction from on high would be helpful, I think. Washing hands and not going into crowds doesn’t require much sacrifice, but not going to work, not doing necessary travel, deciding not to hold playdates when your school is closed, etc.... do. I’m not saying that the government needs to hold our hands and tell us exactly what to do in each situation, but currently the government is not even being consistent about what the current level of risk is. You’ll get wildly different official opinions from the president and his administration, even. It would also help if there were some better publicized, consistent official guidelines about what to do if you’re sick. Ie when to get tested, how to get tested, how to self quarantine, etc...


----------



## Michi

ian said:


> Fair enough, but having some consistent, accurate and measured direction from on high would be helpful, I think


A different president might help.

It appears that the US response to this has been singularly inept. Check your Twitter feed for the most up-to-date and reliable information.


----------



## ian

Michi said:


> A different president might help.
> 
> It appears that the US response to this has been singularly inept. Check your Twitter feed for the most up-to-date and reliable information.



Seriously. All my accurate information about the crisis comes from nongovernmental sources. Hope they manage to get more testing sites operational soon, at least. Can’t wait to become the new Italy...


----------



## Michi

ian said:


> All my accurate information about the crisis comes from nongovernmental sources.


It is really difficult to figure out what is accurate right now. Here, Down Under, the story we get from the government does not quite line up with the story we get from epidemiologists. My money is on the epidemiologists…


----------



## WildBoar

I'm on some other forums that are international as well, and almost universally everyone bitches about their government's responses and directives. And that includes Australia and England.

Frankly I do not know why anyone would listen to a president, prime minister, king, etc. for something like this. They are all politicians and have their own agendas. It is so incredibly easy find the CDC recommendations why the heck would anyone need to wit for the president to say something? Plus in the US the States come first, so really State officials are the primary ones to enact restrictions. And counties/ cities can enact stricter guidelines if they desire (and many have). The Federal government really should be focusing on controlling overseas travelers and let the State governments do what they are supposed to do.


----------



## ian

WildBoar said:


> I'm on some other forums that are international as well, and almost universally everyone bitches about their government's responses and directives. And that includes Australia and England.
> 
> Frankly I do not know why anyone would listen to a president, prime minister, king, etc. for something like this. They are all politicians and have their own agendas. It is so incredibly easy find the CDC recommendations why the heck would anyone need to wit for the president to say something? Plus in the US the States come first, so really State officials are the primary ones to enact restrictions. And counties/ cities can enact stricter guidelines if they desire (and many have). The Federal government really should be focusing on controlling overseas travelers and let the State governments do what they are supposed to do.



It strikes me that there’s not much that’s more national (really, global) than a viral pandemic. There’s so much interstate travel in the US that diverting all responsibility to the states seems, well, irresponsible. And 90% of the news many people consume is national news, so if each state has different standards that’s going to be quite confusing. I don’t want to have a top down approach that’s as authoritarian as China’s, but coordination is the only way to fight this thing.


----------



## labor of love

Michi said:


> Almost everyone getting infected at some point is inevitable now. But we can act to slow that down as much as possible and give everyone a better chance.


Calm down lol. Almost everyone is not getting infected.


----------



## Dave Martell

Duct tape.....it still fixes everything you know. Use it on the ass like a wax strip...pulls the poop off in one swipe.


----------



## chinacats

Know nothing about the source but this may be some positive news...though not immediately helpful...

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENC...weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101


----------



## ian

chinacats said:


> Know nothing about the source but this may be some positive news...though not immediately helpful...
> 
> https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENC...weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101



That’s optimistic. I’ll be waiting to see what happens with this.


----------



## WildBoar

ian said:


> It strikes me that there’s not much that’s more national (really, global) than a viral pandemic. There’s so much interstate travel in the US that diverting all responsibility to the states seems, well, irresponsible. And 90% of the news many people consume is national news, so if each state has different standards that’s going to be quite confusing. I don’t want to have a top down approach that’s as authoritarian as China’s, but coordination is the only way to fight this thing.


Well it's more confusing than that because many cities and counties have their own more stringent requirements. Which in my opinion is how it should be. National should focus on international travel, and making resources available to the States, who then make it available to the local governments. 

Good luck getting all cities, counties and states on the "same page", especially when the local governments' police forces are the ones who have to enforce any of the policies. And the Federal government should not have to direct all entities to enact whatever the most stringent county in the US is enforcing; that's like forcing all Speed Limits to stay below 25 mph because that is what the mayor of Washington DC wants for the DC.

This stuff isn't rocket science. If someone has not read recommendations yet for reasonable conduct with respect to the virus than their head must be stuck in the sand. I don't care if it's the Trump administration, Obama, Clinton, Bush, Kennedy, etc. -- I would not wait for and standby whatever they announced.


----------



## HRC_64

WildBoar said:


> If someone has not read recommendations yet for reasonable conduct with respect to the virus than their head must be stuck in the sand.



Extensive CDC guidelines have been published for two weeks.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/get-your-household-ready-for-COVID-19.html?

eg 1 prevention basics


> Practice everyday preventive actions now. Remind everyone in your household of the importance of practicing everyday preventive actions that can help prevent the spread of respiratory illnesses:
> 
> Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
> Stay home when you are sick, except to get medical care.
> Cover your coughs and sneezes with a tissue.



eg 2 sanitization basics


> Clean frequently touched surfaces and objects daily (e.g., tables, countertops, light switches, doorknobs, and cabinet handles) using a regular household detergent and water.
> 
> If surfaces are dirty, they should be cleaned using a detergent and water prior to disinfection. For disinfection, a list of products with Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)-approved emerging viral pathogens claims, maintained by the American Chemistry Council Center for Biocide Chemistries (CBC), is available at Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Fighting Productspdf iconexternal icon. Always follow the manufacturer’s instructions for all cleaning and disinfection products.
> 
> Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after going to the bathroom; before eating; and after blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing. If soap and water are not readily available, use a hand sanitizer that contains at least 60% alcohol. Always wash your hands with soap and water if your hands are visibly dirty.


 
eg3 Isolation - planning


> Choose a room in your home that can be used to separate sick household members from those who are healthy. Identify a separate bathroom for the sick person to use, if possible. Plan to clean these rooms, as needed, when someone is sick. Learn how to care for someone with COVID-19 at home.



eg 4 - Cleaning products technical guideline

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/cleaning-disinfection.html
https://www.epa.gov/pesticide-registration/list-n-disinfectants-use-against-sars-cov-2



> This guidance provides recommendations on the cleaning and disinfection of households where persons under investigation (PUI) or those with confirmed COVID-19 reside or may be in self-isolation. It is aimed at limiting the survival of the virus in the environments. These recommendations will be updated if additional information becomes available.


...


> Cleaning refers to the removal of germs, dirt, and impurities from surfaces. Cleaning does not kill germs, but by removing them, it lowers their numbers and the risk of spreading infection.
> 
> Disinfecting refers to using chemicals to kill germs on surfaces. This process does not necessarily clean dirty surfaces or remove germs, but by killing germs on a surface after cleaning, it can further lower the risk of spreading infection.


----------



## Nemo

Michi said:


> Toilet paper is your friend, man!
> 
> You can use it for its normal purpose, no problem. In addition:
> 
> Getting cold? Mound it into a pile, put a match to it, and warm yourself.
> If you are still cold when going to sleep, wrap yourself in TP and stay warm.
> Need to remove some make-up? TP is your friend!
> Need to remove some nail polish? A bit of TP and acetone will fix it in a jiffy.
> Got a spill of something on the floor? Not a problem, a bit of TP will clean it up right away.
> Got the sneezes? TP will catch your snot and, on top of that, save everyone around you from catching coronavirus, too.
> Hungry? TP, a bit of hot water and a bit of salt and pepper, and you got yourself a filling meal.
> And, beyond all that, TP is biodegradable and environmentally friendly. So, the more you use, the more you are doing to help save the planet. (Ideally, every single person in the world would use at least a ton of toilet paper every year; it would solve all our environmental problems, with so many people doing so much to save the planet…)
> 
> So, as you can see, when the apocalypse comes, the very first thing you want to do is stock up on toilet paper.
> 
> It's only logical, isn't it?



https://i1.wp.com/politicallyincorr...ak-toilet-paper-fort.jpg?resize=520,348&ssl=1


----------



## Nemo

Luftmensch said:


> https://theconversation.com/explain...ntine-people-in-a-coronavirus-outbreak-132877
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...lian-government-have-to-respond-to-the-threat
> https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/ohp-ahmppi.htm
> 
> It looks like the laws are based around compelling people to act in response to public health requirements - if people refuse, power exists to detain them. There are also powers to declare an area a 'health zone' which would place requirements on people entering/exiting the zone. While having such emergency powers is reasonable, it is fair to have concern over what independent oversight is applied when compelling people to act.
> 
> I originally equated 'lockdown' with the 'weld the doors shut' scenario. I _do_ think an Italy (now France & Spain) style lock down could be applied to a city like Sydney. But it is worth understanding what that is... people can still go to work (if their work is open) and go to the shops/pharmacy. In my mind 'shut down' is more appropriate... but perhaps I am being too nit-picky about language!



Yeah, I think we are on the same page now.


----------



## Nemo

Luftmensch said:


> That is where the true terror lies! Snakes, spiders, crocodiles, drop-bears...


Don't tell them about the drop bears!

We still need to have a tourism industry when this all ends.


----------



## Nemo

Luftmensch said:


> True! Not sure what it is down south though...



I quite liked the California Governor's response to a similar question:

Something like:

'The penalty is that your grandparents might die'.


----------



## ian

WildBoar said:


> Well it's more confusing than that because many cities and counties have their own more stringent requirements. Which in my opinion is how it should be. National should focus on international travel, and making resources available to the States, who then make it available to the local governments.
> 
> Good luck getting all cities, counties and states on the "same page", especially when the local governments' police forces are the ones who have to enforce any of the policies. And the Federal government should not have to direct all entities to enact whatever the most stringent county in the US is enforcing; that's like forcing all Speed Limits to stay below 25 mph because that is what the mayor of Washington DC wants for the DC.
> 
> This stuff isn't rocket science. If someone has not read recommendations yet for reasonable conduct with respect to the virus than their head must be stuck in the sand. I don't care if it's the Trump administration, Obama, Clinton, Bush, Kennedy, etc. -- I would not wait for and standby whatever they announced.



National coordination doesn’t mean having every county enact the same level of response. In my mind, it means having the federal government (which has resources to study this problem that local governments do not) give recommendations to the states on what level of response to apply to a given threat level (when do you close schools, for instance?), and to coordinate the establishment of things like testing sites, and probably a bunch of other things that I don’t know about. Surely, establishing testing protocols such should be something that the federal government should handle. There’s probably a best way to do this given the data, and the federal government is to my knowledge the one that has the people studying this. Anyway, I’m not saying the US should turn into China, but just that the federal government could be handling this much more competently. That gaffe where the head of the CDC (I think? can’t remember) was asked who’s in charge of making sure people get tested, and he said “I’ll get back to you”, was sort of indicative of the level of confusion in the federal response.


----------



## Nemo

We are getting pretty close to the line of a political discussion here.

Lets not go there. 

I think it's reasonable to complain about or ridicule a specific governmental response where appropriate. Save the political analysis for Twitter, though.


----------



## chinacats

My state went from 3 cases yesterday to 12 today...10 of which are in my county...again, we've been testing for less than a week here...


----------



## WildBoar

A lot has happened today in many states and local governments. Besides some states ordering all bars and dine-in restaurant service to be closed, local governments have been issuing extensive guidelines to their citizens. I don't watch/ listen to speeches by Presidents, and haven't since I was a little boy, so I couldn't give two ***** what any national 'leader' has to say. If everyone knows what Trump says is BS, then why even bother watching/ listening? The President (or a prime minister, etc.) is not the sort of person I would remotely want to listen to at a time like this. Why would one not go straight to the disease-response groups that provide the real info to the government officials? That is like me going to a circus clown to ask for a review of a restaurant his wife ate at, versus reading reviews by some of the real reviewers and other restaurant people.


----------



## bkultra

Hit close to home, extended family of two children at my son's school have tested positive. He was also the driver for a carpool for kids in the gifted program. So far no signs in in either child, but no tests done yet that I'm aware of.


----------



## HRC_64

Please don't suffer from a 'lack of imagination'...
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Therapeutic_privilege


> A therapeutic privilege refers to an uncommon situation whereby * a physician may be excused from revealing information to a patient when disclosing it would pose a serious psychological threat, so serious a threat as to be medically contraindicated... *


*
We are now about to confront a serious math problem.*


----------



## Luftmensch

WildBoar said:


> Popular? In the US it is an art form right now. Nothing better than a large amount of people who want the gov't to tell them what to do versus using common sense. Do I need to be told not to put myself in the middle of a crowd of 50 people right now? No, I do not need to wait until the gov't tells me it would not be prudent. Do I need to have the gov't tell me to wash my hands? Well thank Dog they did, as otherwise I probably would not, and that would be bad since we ran out of toilet paper and need to use our left hands (or is that right hands? I'll try to remember after I put down this cheeseburger I am currently holding up to my mouth)





WildBoar said:


> Frankly I do not know why anyone would listen to a president, prime minister, king, etc. for something like this.



You are not wrong... but you are not right either. Of course... act in your own interests. You seem like a smart chap. You are probably assimilating knowledge from the right sources. The reason why anyone would listen to messaging from their Government is because in many ways, that is the only message that matters.

In a world where it has never been easier to get access to high reliability information, the amount of ignorance/naivety in the world is staggering. Don't get me wrong - i am not calling people stupid. There is a ****-storm of conspiracies, half-truths and anecdotes. This complicates best practice. We don't afford many poor in our economies to take the time to pursue knowledge and implement best practice. They have enough stress and worry on their plate. Also... narcissism. People have probably never been so self involved (social media). This goes directly to your point. You need coordinated behaviour in the herd. Only governments can do it. There are enough people in society willing to do the wrong thing. Goverments are the only agencies that have the power to enact policy that can force us to behave in a useful way (reduce the R0...).




WildBoar said:


> I'm on some other forums that are international as well, and almost universally everyone bitches about their government's responses and directives. And that includes Australia and England.



In many Governments (mine and yours), we are paying these oafs extraordinary sums to 'act on our behalf'. Politics has never been so hollow, unimaginative and corrupt in my short life time. I am old enough to have seen a parliament that conducted itself with respect and decorum. Sure there was partisanship and corruption. Now it is just bald faced and proud. We dont pay taxes just so these people can line their pockets. If they can't pull it together in a crisis - we deserve to be angry.

Speaking purely domestically (Australia)....

As I have said; I am not fan of my Government (this is an understatement). They _did_ get the early travel bans right - with our largest trading partner no less... Kudos. The rest has neither been terrible nor exemplary. I think this is a fairly neutral appraisal.

I would like to see further travel bans and expect to see shutdown soon. My gut feel is they should have banned entertainment earlier. But what do I know?... I am just some guy!! The rest is really, really hard. I am happy to admit this and extend the Government that room to manoeuvre. History will eventually tell the story. For now I will take it on faith (dangerous) that the Government is trying to balance economic disruption with health policy. I don't think public service is that broken here; as partisan as it is. Minimising both economic damage and health impacts is an extremely difficult game to play. Pulling the plug on the economy is no joke. I couldn't care less about the economy as some abstract concept - but it does affect people's livelihoods and well being. Recessions cause long lasting harm. I do believe the chances of a recession here (and globally) is getting hot. If the Government need an extra week to observe the numbers before pushing us into that territory (we are already there), i'll extend them that benefit of the doubt.


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> Almost everyone getting infected at some point is inevitable now. But we can act to slow that down as much as possible and give everyone a better chance.



Don't be too worried about this. It *IS* serious... but lets be sober. Has anyone got a reliable source on models predicting infection rates? 

I read one local academic conservatively estimate one-in-five (for Australia) but I'd like to see better modelled estimates. The Spanish Flu was 27% of the global population. Point being, as horrible as this thing is, I doubt we'll come close to reaching 50% of the population infected. I dont mean to understate the disease/risk - but looking at bare numbers, the chances that an individual will catch it are several times less lower than remaining healthy. Follow public health messaging and put yourself in that healthy majority!!


----------



## Johnny.B.Good

WildBoar said:


> Why would one not go straight to the disease-response groups that provide the real info to the government officials?



You’re giving the average American citizen far too much credit. 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human caused climate change is happening and yet people that lack a grade school understanding of science insist they know better. Not sure why you think Americans will ignore Trump and look to the CDC for guidance on this issue.


----------



## M1k3

We've been ordered to go to delivery only until midnight the 31st...


----------



## willic

M1k3, where are you located???


----------



## WildBoar

Johnny.B.Good said:


> You’re giving the average American citizen far too much credit. 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human caused climate change is happening and yet people that lack a grade school understanding of science insist they know better. Not sure why you think Americans will ignore Trump and look to the CDC for guidance on this issue.


I guess it is an unfortunate byproduct of living on the edge of Washington, DC, where 98% of the population hates anything remotely Republican and they all think they have the answers to all of the problems in the world. It's ironic that this large demographic, who does nothing all day but wait for tweets and quotes they can tear apart, are waiting on word from the President on what they should be doing. "We know we should not be close to each other, but Trump says the virus isn't bad and I really want to go out drinking with 200 of my closest friends for St. Patrick's Day, so..."


----------



## Marek07

Johnny.B.Good said:


> You’re giving the average American citizen far too much credit. 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human caused climate change is happening and yet people that lack a grade school understanding of science insist they know better...


Indeed! And not just Americans... _*most*_ of us!


----------



## Barmoley




----------



## M1k3

willic said:


> M1k3, where are you located???



I'm in L.A (San Pedro).

As for now, for me, mostly same work hours. I hope for those that get cut hours, that the reimbursement program from the government is real.


----------



## M1k3

Barmoley said:


> View attachment 74168



Yup. The FOH wasn't very happy.


----------



## Johnny.B.Good

M1k3 said:


> I'm in L.A (San Pedro).
> 
> As for now, for me, mostly same work hours. I hope for those that get cut hours, that the reimbursement program from the government is real.



This must be a scary time for restaurant owners (and employees) all over the country. With so many hourly workers living paycheck to paycheck, the consequences of this thing will be devastating. 

I host many small (40-80 persons) events each year that I have catered, and I worry about the company I use most often. I followed through with a small event last week but cancelled one next week, which must be happening to them across the board.


----------



## labor of love

Locally, lots of places are voluntarily pushing curbside Togo service.


----------



## GoodMagic

Stanford Medical Center guidelines:


----------



## Gregmega

M1k3 said:


> I'm in L.A (San Pedro).
> 
> As for now, for me, mostly same work hours. I hope for those that get cut hours, that the reimbursement program from the government is real.



Reimbursement is the longhand ****** deal for most spots that don’t have a month capital (let alone a 2 weeks) to pay forward to keep a place open, even with curbside or grub hub carrying the weight. It’ll be tied up far ages and a lot of places won’t be to hold out long enough to recoup let alone reopen. I’m in LA as well, been in the fine dining scene my whole career. And I’ve never seen my colleagues in this way before. This will gut the landscape for a long while in this town. 

But that doesn’t even get to the larger implications at hand, the entire industry and all its people going without work for these two weeks will certainly crush the most vulnerable among us, the day wagers. But in a way, those are also the people who would hide symptoms and keep showing up to work, because a day or two of is tantamount to not being able to pay rent. 

A whole sector of LA’s economy just flushed into the Pacific Ocean. Fingers crossed and Godspeed to anyone near this thing.


----------



## M1k3

Oh yes it is going to cause a lot of bad stuff. I didn't know how to react to it. 

I'm hourly. I need to work. Other people need to work to keep me working.

But, people are stupid.


----------



## M1k3

And don't bother arguing about the stupid people thing. I get -I- didn't do anything, but, they are a risk to everyone. Like Utah Jazz player Gobert.


----------



## Matus

Another reminder, even though I understand that it is not easy ... but ... 
*
keep the politics out if this discussion
*
Otherwise this thread will soon be pushing up the daisies.

Thank you for understanding


----------



## Michi

Part of the problem is that people have no experience with that kind of thing. We have not seen anything like this since the Spanish flu, and that was four generations ago. So, people don't know what to do, and they cannot judge how serious it is.

Another part of the problem is the—by and large—poor level of science knowledge. How many people really do know what exponential growth means? In my circle of contacts, almost no-one does. The people who do generally are computer geeks because exponential growth happens to be a very important thing for algorithm design. The only other people I know who understand it are scientists or in the medical profession.

And there is the distrust of science in general. It ranges from climate change denial to the flat earthers. Some people wear science ignorance like a badge of pride. "I don't want to know anything about this maths stuff, and I don't care." The same people wouldn't be seen dead not knowing who Van Gogh was, or Beethoven, or who wrote the Iliad—that would be considered embarrassing.

Never mind that the same people who do not trust science are perfectly happy to trust it when shoe is on the other foot, such as when they need surgery, climb on a plane, or use Google maps on their phone to get them where they want to go.


----------



## Michi

Matus said:


> Otherwise this thread will soon be pushing up the daisies.


As moderator of two other forums myself, I do understand your concerns, Matus.

I would ask you to exercise lenience though. I believe that this thread has been an important outlet and support forum for people to talk about this. Talking about stuff is therapeutic and makes people feel less isolated and helpless.

If at all possible, please try to keep this thread open.


----------



## mack

My office (living in Austria) is closed for 14 days because of a potentially infected person. So it's home office-time, which isn't new in our company (we already have the possibility to do so 4 of 5 days a week, now we have 5 of 5 days).

Austria is next to Northern Italy so we take it serious here. The government took some heavy measures to stop the exponential growth and to flatten the curve. All shops, bars, restaurants,... are closed (excepting necessary ones), it isn't allowed to be in groups, playgrounds are closed, of course kindergartens, schools and universities are closed as well as nearly all borders. I am blessed because I live on a farm, so there is a lot of nature. Therefore at least I can go out with my kids. Can't imagine the same situation in the cities at the moment.

That said, Austria has one of the best public health systems worldwide, so nearly everything is done to face this pandemic - and in a rather early stage. 

Unfortunately not all countries are that prepared and have worse health systems. 
Let's see where this **** brings us. 

All the best to all of you,
Mack.


----------



## Dhoff

Matus, you asked for some numers a few days ago. In Denmark they stopped testing unless serious symptoms are present however:
5749 tested, 898 positive.


----------



## Michi

It's quite amazing that, in Europe, they are closing schools, and in Australia, we are told that closing schools would make it worse for everyone.


----------



## mack

Michi said:


> It's quite amazing that, in Europe, they are closing schools, and in Australia, we are told that closing schools would make it worse for everyone.



They say closing schools reduce the social contacts about 10%. They also say - and that is most important - that you aren't allowed to let your parents or grand parents look after the kids, while you are at work. Therefore there is the possibility to stay at home for 3 weeks with full earnings. And I am sure the government is going to stretch this 3 weeks if necessary. They also say that for those, who aren't able to look after their kids (medical staff for instance) schools stay open, young teachers with low risk take care of the kids. Austria is a welfare state and maybe some of you get a feeling why I am happy it is that way.

Mack.


----------



## riba

Michi said:


> It's quite amazing that, in Europe, they are closing schools, and in Australia, we are told that closing schools would make it worse for everyone.



In The Netherlands, the government closed down schools due to societal pressure and not because the benefits outweigh the risks (on a scientific assessment considering economic and healthcare impact).


----------



## Brian Weekley

People are going a little nuts up here (Canada) as well. Stores being stripped of TP and paper towels and canned goods. In some ways I really don’t get it. Kids don’t seem to be catching the virus, which is great. For the majority of people it doesn’t seem to amount to much more than a mild cold or influenza. The people mostly at risk are old people like me, with a compromised immune system. It seems like a bit of an overreaction to turn the economy upside down for something that doesn’t seem to amount to much more than a disease without a vaccine. I remember in my youth going through measles, scarlet fever, whooping cough, and of course the dreaded polio. These were all called epidemics and of course in the case of polio was very serious, affecting mostly young people, and no vaccine. For the most part these diseases were all highly contagious, and members of the family and neighbours got them. With time and rest the vast majority of people recovered without any issues. It seems like a bit of a stretch to declare that the world should go into a massive turmoil over something that will soon have a vaccine and like the diseases I mentioned will come and go.

Perhaps that’s a bit of perspective that age gives me, but honestly I wouldn’t get too worked up about the whole situation if I were you. I remember the family used to joke about the fact that my dad and my three brothers and I caught Scarlett fever all at the same time. I got shipped off to the hospital (I was 4 I think) with the family collection of comic books. My mother had to look after my dad and my three brothers at home. When everybody finally got over the disease, my mother had time to get sick with it. The biggest lament the family had at the time was that our entire collection of comic books had to be left at the hospital when I came home because they were contaminated. I shake my head to think what that big collection of comic books would be worth where I to have them today.

To me the saddest part is that the whole world is being turned into a state of turmoil and a lot of people are being hurt as the economy is shut down. In some respects I think it would be good if everybody just got sick and the world got over it. But if that happened what would the press, politicians and television have to flap their gums about!


----------



## Matus

I was mad at local authorities for not doing more testing, but then watched an interesting interview (in German), where the doctor explained, that the test used to identify the infection is a geneneric coronavirus-family test (it was actually developed in Germany shortly after the outbreak started - even without having access to the Covid19 strain that causes the high mortality). And sice coronaviruses are pretty common and one of many to cause common flu (or sometimes, depending on the health condition of the patient a more serious lung infection), if one would test every person with a pneumonia, about 10% would be positive in this test. That makes it of little value to test ‘everyone’ and that’s why usually only those suspected to be infected are testet.


----------



## birdsfan

LA is not the only area that is enforcing a mandatory restaurant dine-in shut down. We just got word yesterday that Eastern PA is doing the same thing. For my spot it is probably a good thing since our patrons average age looks to be late 60's. 

Hopefully the take out/GrubHub business picks up or I will have to start selling stuff on Ebay!


----------



## Brian Weekley

Talking about the dreaded polio. The vaccine was ultimately developed by two Canadian researchers who gave the vaccine to the world. Today the drug company who develops the Corona vaccine will probably buy Florida and New Zealand out of the first month’s profit on the drug.


----------



## Michi

mack said:


> They say closing schools reduce the social contacts about 10%. They also say - and that is most important - that you aren't allowed to let your parents or grand parents look after the kids, while you are at work. Therefore there is the possibility to stay at home for 3 weeks with full earnings. And I am sure the government is going to stretch this 3 weeks if necessary. They also say that for those, who aren't able to look after their kids (medical staff for instance) schools stay open, young teachers with low risk take care of the kids. Austria is a welfare state and maybe some of you get a feeling why I am happy it is that way.


I honestly don't know who is right here. I do know that, from China, we don't have reliable data because there was a school holiday for much of the time anyway. Some countries did close schools, possibly with some effectiveness. But it's difficult to be sure because we can run the experiment only once, and we don't know what would have happened if we had done it differently.

There are louder and more urgent calls from health experts to close schools sooner rather than later. If we do, the economic damage will be massive. But schools are well-known breeding grounds for infectious diseases. Those kids, even if they don't suffer much themselves, happily leave school in the afternoon, hang around the mall, go skateboarding, have a good time with their boy/girl friend, and do what they generally do. Busily carrying the virus with them. I find it hard to see how not closing schools is better, except maybe in a short-term economic sense.


----------



## Michi

Brian Weekley said:


> Today the drug company who develops the Corona vaccine will probably buy Florida and New Zealand out of the first month’s profit on the drug.


It appears that the US made an attempt to buy a German company that seems to be closing in on a vaccine. This did not go down well with the German public or the German government.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/world/europe/cornonavirus-vaccine-us-germany.html


----------



## Matus

Yes they did, was on German news too. I will NOT share my opinion on that as I would have to ban myself from the thread 

I read that some Israeli company should have a vaccine ready for testing in a few months soon. Let’s just keep fingers crossed that it all works out. I don’t care who will develop it.


----------



## mack

Brian Weekley said:


> Kids don’t seem to be catching the virus, which is great. For the majority of people it doesn’t seem to amount to much more than a mild cold or influenza. The people mostly at risk are old people like me, with a compromised immune system. It seems like a bit of an overreaction to turn the economy upside down for something that doesn’t seem to amount to much more than a disease without a vaccine.



I respectfully disagree to that a lot. 

Kids get the virus and spread it around everywhere they are. And yes, those kids only have mild (or even no) symptoms which exactely makes it so dangerous. 
The same "arguments" you chose were turned over and over here maybe 2 weeks ago. No one is saying something like that now. Let's talk in 2 weeks, hopefully you were right and I wasn't. 

And to me I give a s*** about economics at the moment, now we have to save lives, after that we can save companies.

Best,
Mack.


----------



## Michi

Matus said:


> I will NOT share my opinion on that as I would have to ban myself from the thread


I do believe that, in fact, you just shared your opinion


----------



## mack

Michi said:


> I honestly don't know who is right here.



It's not about going to school or not. It's about reducing social contacts to the max. Kids aren't at high risks themselves but spread the virus everywhere. So it is not only the closed schools. It's the closed shops, cafés, playgrounds,...
All people who aren't necessary to run the society have to stay at home. At the moment it is only a recommendation of the government, but I am sure that this will change soon.

Mack.


----------



## Bill13

Michi said:


> It's quite amazing that, in Europe, they are closing schools, and in Australia, we are told that closing schools would make it worse for everyone.


The most interesting take I heard on this is that when you send these kids home, many will end up with grandparents - the most at risk age group. A balancing act to be sure.


----------



## Matus

I guess the vast differences in social systems play the role here. In EU people have around 25-30 days of vacation plus rather long paid sick leave. Countries that do not offer much of either leave the parents with stranded kids in a tough situation pretty quickly.


----------



## Luftmensch

Matus said:


> Another reminder, even though I understand that it is not easy ... but ...
> *
> keep the politics out if this discussion*



Apologies! I have been one of the agitators 




Michi said:


> As moderator of two other forums myself, I do understand your concerns, Matus.
> 
> I would ask you to exercise lenience though. I believe that this thread has been an important outlet and support forum for people to talk about this. Talking about stuff is therapeutic and makes people feel less isolated and helpless.
> 
> If at all possible, please try to keep this thread open.



I agree. I know it increases the burden on the moderators. It is very hard to discuss a public health crisis without referring to Governments. I think so long as we are civilised and don't bait each other, there is value in the discussion. Though I understand that can be a slippery slope! So far people have been courteous and fair


... but the rules are the rules...


----------



## Luftmensch

mack said:


> Therefore there is the possibility to stay at home for 3 weeks with full earnings.



Wow! Is this regular annual leave or a special measure?


----------



## Luftmensch

Matus said:


> I guess the vast differences in social systems play the role here. In EU people have around 25-30 days of vacation plus rather long paid sick leave. Countries that do not offer much of either leave the parents with stranded kids in a tough situation pretty quickly.



VERY true... but one of the issues here is the discrepancy between full-time, part-time, casual workers and those in the gig-economy. Australia has fairly generous conditions for full-time workers... The other contracts either get part of the benefit or none! Unfortunately the share of the economy that is full-time is ever shrinking.

Surely it is the same in the EU?


----------



## Michi

The CDC recommends to cancel gatherings of 50 or more people. Except schools, for some reason. Except that 57,000 schools in the US have closed, regardless.

I definitely don't see any reason to close Australian schools. She'll be right, mate!


----------



## Luftmensch

@M1k3, @Gregmega 

Really sorry to hear the position you are in. It is small comfort (if any) but I'll send good luck in your direction. I hope you guys can weather the storm.

I think this thing is going to trigger an economic purge


----------



## tgfencer

Michi said:


> It appears that the US made an attempt to buy a German company that seems to be closing in on a vaccine. This did not go down well with the German public or the German government.



"The newspaper reported Trump offered $1bn to Tübingen-based biopharmaceutical company CureVac to secure the vaccine “only for the United States”."- The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...mp-seeking-exclusive-coronavirus-vaccine-deal)

Sorry Matus, but I'm gonna stick my foot in the swamp for just one second. Utterly disgraceful and morally bankrupt is what it is. US exceptionalism at its finest. Still, it's rather unsurprising, at least the Germans could be depended upon to act with some measure of decency and told us where to shove it.

Hope everyone stays safe and employed. Things will probably get worse before they get better, but if I'm reaching for straws at this point, then who knows, maybe some actual permanent change for the good of all will come as a result of this mess.

(@Matus feel free to delete this post if necessary, just felt I had to say it. Let the thread live though.)


----------



## lowercasebill

As far as school children spreading COVID-19.......
Let's all take a moment to remember when our children started day care or school
I don't know about you but my kids brought home colds and other viral diseases including a viral eye infection. There mother lost 30% of her vision for weeks.
My older son treats a lot of children he refers to them as walking petri dishes. 
Be safe keep posting what is going on where you live. It gives us all perspective.


----------



## sleepy

WildBoar said:


> I guess it is an unfortunate byproduct of living on the edge of Washington, DC, where 98% of the population hates anything remotely Republican and they all think they have the answers to all of the problems in the world. It's ironic that this large demographic, who does nothing all day but wait for tweets and quotes they can tear apart, are waiting on word from the President on what they should be doing. "We know we should not be close to each other, but Trump says the virus isn't bad and I really want to go out drinking with 200 of my closest friends for St. Patrick's Day, so..."



LOL this post is what's known as a "bad take."


----------



## ian

tgfencer said:


> "The newspaper reported Trump offered $1bn to Tübingen-based biopharmaceutical company CureVac to secure the vaccine “only for the United States”."- The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...mp-seeking-exclusive-coronavirus-vaccine-deal)
> 
> Sorry Matus, but I'm gonna stick my foot in the swamp for just one second. Utterly disgraceful and morally bankrupt is what it is. US exceptionalism at its finest. Still, it's rather unsurprising, at least the Germans could be depended upon to act with some measure of decency and told us where to shove it.
> 
> Hope everyone stays safe and employed. Things will probably get worse before they get better, but if I'm reaching for straws at this point, then who knows, maybe some actual permanent change for the good of all will come as a result of this mess.
> 
> (@Matus feel free to delete this post if necessary, just felt I had to say it. Let the thread live though.)



Man, I don’t think this counts as political. It’s completely ridiculous. Reminds me of the guy who went around Kentucky and Tennessee buying 17,700 bottles of hand sanitizer and trying to offload them at a huge markup.

Wonder if we floated the idea of buying Germany in order to acquire the vaccine? Apparently we have experience trying to buy countries that begin with G, and interest rates are low.


----------



## ian

sleepy said:


> LOL this post is what's known as a "bad take."



Hey now, civility is what’s keeping this thread alive. I’m interested in hearing everyone’s opinion.


----------



## Luftmensch

Two more points...

I acknowledge the past few posts have been about children (who look to be very low risk). But I just want to point out that this disease _*is*_ taking 'young' people. If you look at the numbers, sure... fatalities are heavily skewed towards the elderly and people with pre-existing health issues. But that does not mean all young, healthy people will survive the disease. A number of otherwise healthy, fit and young people will get gravely ill. Some number of them will die.




mack said:


> And to me I give a s*** about economics at the moment, now we have to save lives, after that we can save companies.



I'll play the devils advocate...

Recessions are bad. They aren't as sensational as a pandemic (maybe they can be) but they have impacts that ripple through the social fabric for a long, long time. For example, speaking of health concerns, graduates in a recession have higher rates of mortality by mid-life. Amongst the many obvious reasons recessions are painful...

I am unlikely to be infected. I am super unlikely to die. But it is now a certainty that the economy will tank around me. I might actually benefit from this - but I know most others will not. I broadly subscribe to the idea of utilitarianism - the problem is, I have no idea how to run the moral/ethical calculus behind it. The reason I bring this up is because Governments always aught to be doing this. It is no easy task - this is no exception. The economy still does matter...


----------



## panda

i was gonna order some more ammo so i could go to the range next day off, but the online retailer i use are completely sold out!! stupid people hoarding stuff, this is so annoying.


----------



## Matus

@tgfencer - we're good


----------



## mack

Luftmensch said:


> Wow! Is this regular annual leave or a special measure?



It's a special thing due to this pandemic. 
But our social system offers more annual benefits: 5 or 6 weeks holidays (depends on how long you've been working already), 1 weeks nursing leave per child (for both the mother and the father - which for instance for my family with 2 kids means in total 4 weeks of nursing leave in total), both with continuing full earnings. A 13th and 14th monthly salary (it's called holiday-money and christmas-money) has also to be paid by law. And you have some special holiday-days, for instance: 2 extra days paid when you are moving from one place to another (which doesn't happen very often in Austria), 3 extra days paid when you get married, 1 extra day paid for the funeral of one of your grandparents and so on and so on. 

Therefore the country takes around 40-50% of my incomings for financing these things (not only those above, also the health care system, the unemployment benefit, public pension,...). But I highly appreciate it.

And of course economy is important. Sounds paradox but at the moment it is the best thing for the economy to put high restrictions as soon as possible, the longer you wait the more harm is done to the economy.

Best,
Mack.


----------



## mack

And in addition new numbers were published in Austria:

Last week where there were no restrictions the increasing rate was 36% a day in average. From yesterday to today it was only 20% which is a first indicator the the measures are reasonable.

Mack.


----------



## Corradobrit1

Brian Weekley said:


> Talking about the dreaded polio. The vaccine was ultimately developed by two Canadian researchers who gave the vaccine to the world.


Not sure where you got that idea. First person to demonstrate effective polio vaccine was Polish researcher Hilary Koprowski, working in a US laboratory. Wasn't approved by the USDA so it was US Scientist Jonas Salk and another Pole Albert Sabin, working in US, who came up with commercial polio vaccines.


----------



## CiderBear

Anyone lives alone? I'm on day 7 of isolation and I'm losing my mind.


----------



## Corradobrit1

CiderBear said:


> Anyone lives alone? I'm on day 7 of isolation and I'm losing my mind.


I bet your living space has never been so clean......if I'm eventually in that situation I can see Skype getting a major workout


----------



## panda

CiderBear said:


> Anyone lives alone? I'm on day 7 of isolation and I'm losing my mind.


Make more cut videos


----------



## Corradobrit1

Any bored guinea pigs living in Seattle?
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51906604


----------



## M1k3

CiderBear said:


> Anyone lives alone? I'm on day 7 of isolation and I'm losing my mind.



Yeah, more videos!


----------



## Lars

I live by myself, but I lost my mind a long time ago!
My house haven't been this clean since I moved in.
The danish government has taken pretty severe measures to hopefully slow the spread.
I'm doing my bit by staying home as much as possible and shopping when the least people are at the stores.
Let's hope we are all doing the right things.


----------



## CiderBear

Lars said:


> I live by myself, but I lost my mind a long time ago!
> My house haven't been this clean since I moved in.
> The danish government has taken pretty severe measures to hopefully slow the spread.
> I'm doing my bit by staying home as much as possible and shopping when the least people are at the stores.
> Let's hope we are all doing the right things.



I'm the opposite. I've been such a slob. I'm too depressed to clean, and I just washed my hair yesterday...


----------



## WildBoar

CiderBear said:


> Anyone lives alone? I'm on day 7 of isolation and I'm losing my mind.


PM me your address and I'll send you my 7-year-old.


----------



## ian

WildBoar said:


> PM me your address and I'll send you my 7-year-old.



4 days into quarantine and I’m completely fed up with my 5 yr old. These next few months are going to be trying...


----------



## lowercasebill

My younger adult son lives with me but stays in his room when he is not at work.
I am having trouble focusing. I finally got my living clean and now i cannot have visitors.
I am retired about a year and miss my patients and employees still.
I did watch outbreak monkey and tonight will be andromeda strain
Going to start mirror polishing my 360 shig yanagiba tomorrow.
Might be a good idea if we post what we are doing to cope with the isolation?


----------



## WildBoar

Skype? Facetime? Good ol' fashioned telephone? You can still interact with people.

(obviously you've ramped up you time on KKF -- it's good to see you posting a bit again)


----------



## Ryndunk

Restaurants shutdown here in Michigan today. Spent the last 6 hours freezing and throwing away a fully stocked kitchen. 2 weeks minimum.


----------



## lowercasebill

Good idea. I need to do that with my older son no idea when i will see him. He is a dentist and every time he uses the handpiece he makes aerosols. I will be 69 shortly and have hypertension some heart disease etc. So he cannot visit.


----------



## lowercasebill

Ryndunk said:


> Restaurants shutdown here in Michigan today. Spent the last 6 hours freezing and throwing away a fully stocked kitchen. 2 weeks minimum.


That sucks. I need to sneak into the church where i have been cooking to do the same. I have 3 turkeys and who knows what else to toss.


----------



## bkultra

I have restored a post that I previously deleted, but want to point out it is now being reported (by the German Co) that no such offer was made. The story was being falsely reported.


----------



## WildBoar

DC and Maryland have announced a suspension of dine-in at restaurants. Also closures of bars, movie theaters and gyms. Virginia likely to follow suite soon.


----------



## lowercasebill

Good luck. State run liquor stores in South east PA. closed for 2 wks
Except mine they are closed indefinitely. I stocked up and should be good for about 8 weeks after that i will order on line


----------



## Xenif

Hi its Canada, we have officially closed our borders (except to citizens and US citizens [huh?] ). Tim Hortons is closing all dinning rooms. So, we Are officially closed.


----------



## lowercasebill

Thanks for the update.
Stay safe.
Please keep posting your incredible meals for those of in isolation!


----------



## ian

bkultra said:


> I have restored a post that I previously deleted, but want to point out it is now being reported (by the German Co) that no such offer was made. The story was being falsely reported.



weird. thanks for noticing that!


----------



## labor of love

Edit.
Moved my comment to the corona cook thread.


----------



## tgfencer

bkultra said:


> I have restored a post that I previously deleted, but want to point out it is now being reported (by the German Co) that no such offer was made. The story was being falsely reported.



Interesting. Just spent the last 30 mins reading about twenty odd reports published in the last 8hrs, and there do seem to be some discrepancies.

Honestly, I'd be tempted to add "the story has _allegedly _been falsely reported".
The German government has yet to withdraw their previous statements. It's also a well-identified scenario that newly developed vaccines are usually highly fought over by first world governments while supplies remain low and production not at the necessary capacity. (Do any of us really think badly-affected places like Iran are getting large quantities of early vaccine when it's finally created and produced?)

Just as an example of similar behind the scenes maneuvering, Thermo-Fisher (a massive US company) spent a little over 11 billion USD toward the start of March buying a German genetics company called Qiagen, who have developed a test kit for the virus (and they paid 23% above market value for each share).

Just because the story is now being denied by two of the parties involved, doesn't mean there wasn't a discussion, even if no one wants to admit to it publicly. I tend to think these types of stories don't just appear out of thin air, but it could be I'm just a distrusting guy when it comes to these sort of things.

Anywho, I think I hear some whetstones calling my name. Hang strong folks.

(FYI, if anybody ends up finding it difficult to locate food in grocery stores, I can almost 100% guarantee you that with all these restaurant/bar closures that local farmers in and around your area/city will be looking for people to sell their goods to. Nature stops for no man or virus. I've got a bunch of elderly folks in my neighborhood, so I'm considering offering to hit up a few farms and redistribute my findings so people don't have to leave their homes.)


----------



## daveb

Sharpening videos.


----------



## labor of love

daveb said:


> Sharpening videos.


All those old carter Curley videos that are now free to watch on YouTube are quite good.


----------



## NBrewster

I am relatively sure I actually contracted COVID and seem to be well on my way to being healthy again today. Had all of the symptoms but I haven't been traveling so was not allowed to get tested (USA! USA!). I'm a New Yorker and so I probably picked it up on the subway.

Assuming I had it, I can see how this disease is insidious, in that I only felt really sick for about 2 days and even that wasn't nearly as bad as the average flu. I had a cough for several days before feeling sicker, and was at work for 3 days with mild symptoms before realizing that my symptoms very cleanly aligned and stopped going to the office.

Now I'm on day 5 of quarantine, and doctors say another 14 to go!


----------



## Corradobrit1

Obviously some are not making preparations and just reacting. 999(911) what's your emergency?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/us/newport-911-toilet-paper-trnd/index.html


----------



## lowercasebill

NBrewster said:


> I am relatively sure I actually contracted COVID and seem to be well on my way to being healthy again today. Had all of the symptoms but I haven't been traveling so was not allowed to get tested (USA! USA!). I'm a New Yorker and so I probably picked it up on the subway.
> 
> Assuming I had it, I can see how this disease is insidious, in that I only felt really sick for about 2 days and even that wasn't nearly as bad as the average flu. I had a cough for several days before feeling sicker, and was at work for 3 days with mild symptoms before realizing that my symptoms very cleanly aligned and stopped going to the office.
> 
> Now I'm on day 5 of quarantine, and doctors say another 14 to go!


Your age is important to us all if you don't mind?


----------



## MowgFace

CA here. 9 different counties have been mandated to "Shelter-in-Place" All non-essential businesses to shut down until April 6.


----------



## HRC_64

tgfencer said:


> Honestly, I'd be tempted to add "the story has _allegedly _been falsely reported".



Its the "false" reporting that makes the story unusual ("exclusive use for XYZ"), not the story itself ("Company X buys company Z"). A similar deal just happened and there was nothing "interesting" about that to report. its common for M&A activity to pick up in ANY indutry during times when what that industry makes becomes stragetically more important.

If you don't work in finance, or know anything about this first hand, etc, I'd advise to not pretend you have a clue about it.The kinds of discussions that happen around this activity are highly easy to distort with word games.

By definition of any "asset purchase" is "exclusive ownership"... what does that mean? What is unusual about "exclusive ownership"? What about financial control vs operational control? Tangibe and intanbile property? Real vs Intellectual property rights? These are completely different things, that may each be handled differently in a transaction. 

They are possibly but not necessarily linked. There are tons of reasons why deals may be done one way or the other (taxes, legal, compliance, regulatory, etc). So unless your somebody with true, factual (ie "inside") information...you have no clue what you're talking about.

It's ALSO completely outside this thread topic "preparing for covid-19".


edits: for clarity


----------



## ian

Wonder if we should prepare for Covid-19 by making a coronavirus subforum to contain the 5 or 6 (and counting) threads? #jokingnotjoking


----------



## tgfencer

HRC_64 said:


> Its the "false" reporting that makes the story unusual ("exclusive use for XYZ"), not the story itself ("Company X buys company Z"). A similar deal just happened and there was nothing "interesting" about that to report. its common for M&A activity to pick up in ANY indutry during times when what that industry makes becomes strategically more important.
> 
> If you don't work in finance, or know anything about this first hand, etc, I'd advise to not pretend you have a clue about it.The kinds of discussions that happen around this activity are highly easy to distort with word games.
> 
> By definition of any "asset purchase" is "exclusive ownership"... what does that mean? What is unusual about "exclusive ownership"? What about financial control vs operational control? Tangibe and intanbile property? Real vs Intellectual property rights? These are completely different things, that may each be handled differently in a transaction.
> 
> They are possibly but not necessarily linked. There are tons of reasons why deals may be done one way or the other (taxes, legal, compliance, regulatory, etc). So unless your somebody with true, factual (ie "inside") information...you have no clue what you're talking about.
> 
> It's ALSO completely outside this thread topic "preparing for covid-19".
> 
> 
> edits: for clarity



Sent you a PM. I think you might have misinterpreted what I was trying to say, or maybe not, or perhaps I just expressed myself terribly, but either way I'm not always the most eloquent person and if the internet has taught me anything its that the digital medium isn't especially well suited to these types of conversations. Best to move any further conversation to a private format.

I will also concede that in retrospect perhaps neither of our posts are really in line with the overall spirit of the thread, which is one I don't wish to spoil or pollute. To anyone I might have offended, I apologize. 

Let's return to Covid-19 preparations and commiserations. I for one, expect to be feeling as hyper and stir-crazy as this cat by the time all this madness passes. (Volume up and apologies for the broken laugh at the end). 

https://www.instagram.com/p/B53-HzdnJkC/


----------



## Bert2368

Have enough meat, beans, rice, basic staple foods (and toilet paper) on hand to last for a while, probably won't starve.

Fresh vegetables look like they may be kind of slim unless I grow them myself. Money will be too, all our jobs for next couple of months at least are cancelled. After that, who knows?


----------



## tgfencer

Bert2368 said:


> Fresh vegetables look like they may be kind of slim unless I grow them myself. Money will be too, all our jobs for next couple of months at least are cancelled. After that, who knows?



I was serious earlier when I mentioned contacting small local farms in and around the area. I don't know what the growing season is like this time of year in MN, but I imagine there are some greenhouses based producers. Restaurants have only just started closing or limiting hours where I live (WNC) since there's just today been one case announced in my county, but they're already struggling to move product that had been destined for restaurants.


----------



## panda

i only have enough ammo for one wave of zombies.


----------



## Luftmensch

tgfencer said:


> (FYI, if anybody ends up finding it difficult to locate food in grocery stores, I can almost 100% guarantee you that with all these restaurant/bar closures that local farmers in and around your area/city will be looking for people to sell their goods to. Nature stops for no man or virus. I've got a bunch of elderly folks in my neighborhood, so I'm considering offering to hit up a few farms and redistribute my findings so people don't have to leave their homes.)



That is very generous of you. 

If the produce is going to be tilled back into the soil, maybe you could convince them to let you distribute it to homeless shelters or soup kitchens (assuming they are operating on skeleton crew)?


----------



## Luftmensch

Bert2368 said:


> Fresh vegetables look like they may be kind of slim unless I grow them myself.



Where I live, everything with a long shelf life has been hoarded. Tins, grains, meats (for the freezer). The vegetable section is still relatively well stocked!


----------



## Bert2368

panda said:


> i only have enough ammo for one wave of zombies.



It's not The Stand, or even any of the zombie movies quite yet... Nor The Road Warrior. Whoever wrote the script for this movie sucks.


----------



## Chuckles

Moved to Covid Cooks.


----------



## Kippington

Bert2368 said:


> It's not The Stand, or even any of the zombie movies quite yet... Nor The Road Warrior. Whoever wrote the script for this movie sucks.


It fits Contagion (2011) pretty well, thankfully not as potent though.


----------



## riba

In The Netherlands, the game plan is to have 50-60% of the population slowly infected (ideally the not at risk groups) so group immunity starts kicking in. Hopefully they manage the hospitalization rate. Idea is that lock down / complete isolation is not effective, as spreading will restart when opening up again.


----------



## Matus

I think that’s what will happen everywhere. You can’t outsit a disease as infectious as this one. The hope is that a vaccine will be available eventually and that should allow us to get closer back to normal.


----------



## Michi

panda said:


> i only have enough ammo for one wave of zombies.


Just plant the right stuff in your garden, and you'll be fine


----------



## NBrewster

lowercasebill said:


> Your age is important to us all if you don't mind?



I'm 33, healthy as is my partner. Luckily we both have jobs that we can WFH from, so the worst is cabin fever.

Living in NY we have infinite delivery options so we will be okay. But keep an eye on your neighbors folks! I imagine this would be quite difficult if I lived in the suburbs or the country.


----------



## bkultra

Was contacted yesterday, my daughter was exposed to someone who has tested positive at her preschool. We will be imposing a 14 day self quarantine.


----------



## Tanalasta

As an attending physician...
Let’s just say we’re in for interesting and not particularly enjoyable times. The impact on health services and economy are only just beginning to ripple. 

At least if we have to self isolate, we have our knives and time to do food prep right?


----------



## lowercasebill

As long as we have food. Not a lot of prep with hot dogs and rice


----------



## lowercasebill

bkultra said:


> Was contacted yesterday, my daughter was exposed to someone who has tested positive at her preschool. We will be imposing a 14 day self quarantine.


Good luck keep us posted


----------



## Tanalasta

Cube the hot dogs and turn it into fried rice!


----------



## lowercasebill

Tanalasta said:


> Cube the hot dogs and turn it into fried rice!


Nice i can do that i have eggs and frozen peas.
Thanks


----------



## CiderBear

bkultra said:


> Was contacted yesterday, my daughter was exposed to someone who has tested positive at her preschool. We will be imposing a 14 day self quarantine.



Sending you positive thoughts. Take care of yourself and the family


----------



## bobkoure

ian said:


> I second that. For me, 8 hrs of sleep every night, regular vitamin D (I had low levels when last checked), regular exercise, eating/drinking healthier than usual. I feel for healthcare workers, who need such self care more than anyone. I hope you have the time for adequate sleep.


I've been doing a deep dive on, well, a number of things, but one nugget that came up is that Vitamin D deficiency (known as rickets) wasn't just bone deformation. It was also associated with alveolar and bronchial damage. Covid19 seems to attack the lungs, particularly if that's a weak point. I upped my daily vitamin D to 4000IU (recommended max dosage) once I read that.


----------



## ian

Hmm, I’ve only been doing 2000 so far. Can’t remember why I came to that dosage (it’s been a while). IIRC, it’s supposed to help directly with immune system function somehow. I posted this in another thread, but last winter whenever I got sick (which was frequently, since I have a kid in preschool) I invariably got a high fever and chills. A doctor told me my Vitamin D levels were low, so I started taking it. Since then, I still get sick from my kid, but the symptoms are mild and I’ve never had a fever. Maybe coincidence, but...


----------



## Nemo

bkultra said:


> Was contacted yesterday, my daughter was exposed to someone who has tested positive at her preschool. We will be imposing a 14 day self quarantine.


I hope that you don't become unwell.


----------



## Nemo

bobkoure said:


> I've been doing a deep dive on, well, a number of things, but one nugget that came up is that Vitamin D deficiency (known as rickets) wasn't just bone deformation. It was also associated with alveolar and bronchial damage. Covid19 seems to attack the lungs, particularly if that's a weak point. I upped my daily vitamin D to 4000IU (recommended max dosage) once I read that.



Be careful with this.

Vitamin D is fat soluble, so your body doesn't wee it out if it gets too much (like it does with water soluble vitamins like Bs and C).

Whether or not you need it and how much you need is primarily determined by your sun exposure. I get that it's early spring in the northern hemisphere atm, so some may be deficeint, but taking vitamin D, especially in large doses, without monitoring levels is generally not recommended in Aus.

I also get that you want to make yourself as strong as possible in case you do become unwell but I am not aware of any evidence that vitamin D deficeincy increases risk of bad outcomes with Covid. Have you seen any high quality evidence of this?


----------



## Johnny.B.Good

riba said:


> In The Netherlands, the game plan is to have 50-60% of the population slowly infected (ideally the not at risk groups) so group immunity starts kicking in. Hopefully they manage the hospitalization rate. Idea is that lock down / complete isolation is not effective, as spreading will restart when opening up again.



That seems to be the take of the authors of this article in the New York Times, who believe there will be at least two if not three or four prolonged periods of "social distancing" needed before an effective vaccine can be developed:
_
"Unfortunately, normal is a long way off. We need to be thinking in terms of months, not weeks. We need to stop picturing that ubiquitous “flatten the curve” chart and start imagining a roller coaster.

Social distancing works. As China, South Korea and other countries have demonstrated, it is possible to slow the spread of the virus and limit how many people are infected at one time. This will keep hospitals from being overwhelmed with patients, so that those who are sick can be treated competently and compassionately. It will also give researchers time to work on developing vaccines and medications that could reduce the severity of the virus and save lives.

No one knows for sure how long social distancing will have to last to reduce the spread to near zero. But if South Korea and China are appropriate exemplars, we’ll need to stay apart now for at least eight weeks, and maybe more."_


----------



## parbaked

Nemo said:


> Vitamin D is fat soluble, so your body doesn't wee it out if it gets too much (like it does with water soluble vitamins like Bs and C).



I heard this too but instead of buying supplements I bought salmon and a few dozen eggs. 
We're also taking dog for walks some can stretch our legs. get some air and Vitamin D, and maintain social distance...


----------



## Bert2368

Be careful with the vitamin D, the oil soluble vitamins are the ones you CAN overdose on.

I have a full range of vitamins and supplements. I'm taking them and also cooking from scratch and eating better than I could have taken the time to do if our normal work could be done.

If it were not for the anxiety and worry about friends, family, employees and neighbors, plus watching my bank account ticking down towards zero with no chance for us to do our previously scheduled paying work... This would almost be a nice vacation.


----------



## WildBoar

Many, many more people out for walks and jogging in my neighborhood this past week then I have ever seen in the last 22 years. Hard for us to go out for a walk without there being a couple instances of near-contact along the route. Three days ago a woman jogging toward us coughed twice without turning away or covering her mouth just as she got within a few feet of us.


----------



## Bert2368

Luftmensch said:


> Where I live, everything with a long shelf life has been hoarded. Tins, grains, meats (for the freezer). The vegetable section is still relatively well stocked!



I went unto the local Walmart this afternoon and saw how things were going there.

Yes, pretty much all the fresh produce they usually have was available- 






Except for potatoes, onions and garlic. Only a few white onions were left. This area was originally settled largely by German and Scandinavian imigrants, not Irish... I know about the potato monument near Hirschorn. So does my neighbors DNA. 

The display of empty bins where those foods usually were:






The aisle where frozen pizzas and dubious quality microwave frozen "TV dinners" usually are found was completely empty:






But you could buy all types of frozen fruit and as much ice cream as you wanted.






There were no eggs, milk, cheeses, flours, dry pasta of any kind or canned soups, stews or meats in the store.

All the meat was gone except the most expensive cuts of beef and pork and some bags of frozen chicken wings. But there were plenty of frozen/fresh fish and shrimp?

We won't talk about the toilet paper aisle.


----------



## Luftmensch

Kippington said:


> It fits Contagion (2011) pretty well, thankfully not as potent though.



I remember, at the time, it was praised for being scientifically grounded. They had a good science consultant!


----------



## Luftmensch

Bert2368 said:


> Yes, pretty much all the fresh produce they usually have was available-



Weird huh? Not many people willing to batch cook and freeze.... We usually buy fresh veggies, on the way home from work, every three or four days for dinner. Usually I try to cook enough to last us at least two nights. On my last shop, I decided to get slightly more than double what I am used to... The veggie stew I made [cross post] is frozen in 2L batches. It should last about a week.



Bert2368 said:


> Except for potatoes, onions and garlic. Only a few white onions were left.



Yeah... my shops were low on potatoes. Onions seemed ok though.



Bert2368 said:


> The aisle where frozen pizzas and dubious quality microwave frozen "TV dinners" usually are found was completely empty



Ha! Crazy... In the shops I went to, they were definitely low stock. But not cleaned out like that! Perhaps we haven't reached peak paranoia yet?



Bert2368 said:


> But there were plenty of frozen/fresh fish and shrimp?



Same... near identical consumer patterns actually! Fish isn't at its best after freezing... but you could still make a curry from it? Go figure...


Eventually (I assume?) people are going to realise this is the new normal for the medium term. Hopefully that will make people relax and the shops wont look like they have been ransacked. How much more can you buy when your fridge is full? How many rolls of toilet paper can you own before you have nowhere to store them? Unless things go _really_ south, and the shops remain open, I imagine the stock in the shops will bounce back soon. People will be obligated into consuming their hoard.


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> How many rolls of toilet paper can you own before you have no where to store them?


Watch the TP futures. Six months from now, TP sales will absolutely crater because everyone is sitting on two years worth of a hoard…

I'm planning to short TP companies!


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> I'm planning to short TP companies!



Careful now, I hear they have “funding secured” from Saudi Arabia


----------



## milas555

Tanalasta said:


> As an attending physician...
> Let’s just say we’re in for interesting and not particularly enjoyable times. The impact on health services and economy are only just beginning to ripple.
> 
> At least if we have to self isolate, we have our knives and time to do food prep right?


We all have knives and toilet paper supplies - it's time to test the knife versus toilet paper ...
unused paper only


----------



## Luftmensch

CiderBear said:


> Anyone lives alone? I'm on day 7 of isolation and I'm losing my mind.



I was going to suggest you don't need to be a complete shut-in



CiderBear said:


> Think we might be on different level of fears. 1 confirmed case at my work announced this afternoon. Indefinite telework effective immediately. That's where I am.



I had to comb back through the thread to find this piece of information. That sucks. Im sorry you are in that situation.... Sounds like you are currently ok physically? That is good. I can see how the social/mental part would be problematic. You'll have to complete your quarantine. I guess our modern comforts are a blessing - you can still maintain social bonds over the phone/video calls or messaging.

Check with your local health professional what your quarantine rules are. This is what the CDC advises. If you can take a walk around the block (or in a local park?) and maintain a healthy distance from others, it might help clear your head and provide a change of scenery. If the idea appeals, check if it is permissible. 



CiderBear said:


> I'm the opposite. I've been such a slob. I'm too depressed to clean, and I just washed my hair yesterday...



Ha! Sounds like a regular day for me... except the hair washing thing.... when was the last time....


----------



## Luftmensch

mack said:


> It's a special thing due to this pandemic.
> But our social system offers more annual benefits: 5 or 6 weeks holidays (depends on how long you've been working already), 1 weeks nursing leave per child (for both the mother and the father - which for instance for my family with 2 kids means in total 4 weeks of nursing leave in total), both with continuing full earnings. A 13th and 14th monthly salary (it's called holiday-money and christmas-money) has also to be paid by law. And you have some special holiday-days, for instance: 2 extra days paid when you are moving from one place to another (which doesn't happen very often in Austria), 3 extra days paid when you get married, 1 extra day paid for the funeral of one of your grandparents and so on and so on.



Very, very cool... I am envious. I really do think people (and the economy) would be better off if those who lost work were able to access minimum wage for some period. 

We have an ok list of employee entitlements. Less generous than Austria.... but not bad at all. Maybe that is what happens when you take the letters "a" and "l" out of the name? 



mack said:


> Therefore the country takes around 40-50% of my incomings for financing these things (not only those above, also the health care system, the unemployment benefit, public pension,...). But I highly appreciate it.



Absolutely! I have no problem paying tax if it builds society! Sure... 

Currently our top tax bracket is 45% - but they have been fiddling with it recently. It changes with the political winds. I would like to see it move towards being even more progressive and more top heavy.


----------



## CiderBear

Luftmensch said:


> I was going to suggest you don't need to be a complete shut-in
> 
> 
> 
> I had to comb back through the thread to find this piece of information. That sucks. Im sorry you are in that situation.... Sounds like you are currently ok physically? That is good. I can see how the social/mental part would be problematic. You'll have to complete your quarantine. I guess our modern comforts are a blessing - you can still maintain social bonds over the phone/video calls or messaging.
> 
> Check with your local health professional what your quarantine rules are. This is what the CDC advises. If you can take a walk around the block (or in a local park?) and maintain a healthy distance from others, it might help clear your head and provide a change of scenery. If the idea appeals, check if it is permissible.
> 
> 
> 
> Ha! Sounds like a regular day for me... except the hair washing thing.... when was the last time....



I'm not under "quarantine." I have been self isolating and working from home for 10 days because I recently came back from international travel, so I did not have any overlap in the building with the 2 confirmed cases.


----------



## Michi

CiderBear said:


> I'm not under "quarantine." I have been self isolating and working from home for 10 days because I recently came back from international travel, so I did not have any overlap in the building with the 2 confirmed cases.


That's the right thing to do. Better for yourself, and better for everyone else around you.

I don't know your age. If you are young(-ish), your chances are pretty good.

I'm 60 years old, and I face a roughly 5% risk of dying if I get infected. Depending on the timing of when I will (inevitably) get infected, I may be fine, or I may be part of the cohort that gets infected at the wrong time and gets discarded in favour of 40-year olds with children. (Rightfully so, I might add.) Check what's happening in Italy. Doctors are forced to choose hundreds of times every day.

My best bet is to not get infected for at least four more months, or to get infected a few days ago. In the latter case, I might just end up in hospital while there are still enough respirators to go around. Unfortunately, given how cautious I have been, I don't like my chances of being part of the first wave.


----------



## ITKKF

Michi said:


> My best bet is to not get infected for at least four more months, or to get infected a few days ago. In the latter case, I might just end up in hospital while there are still enough respirators to go around. Unfortunately, given how cautious I have been, I don't like my chances of being part of the first wave.



I do believe percentages are much smaller, due to many cases being undetected. Also, you are in the bottom of the age range so I'd assume that further decreases the possibility. 

In any case I wish you and the rest of the community here best of luck for the coming times!


----------



## podzap

Michi said:


> I'm 60 years old, and I face a roughly 5% risk of dying if I get infected.



Not likely anywhere near 5% unless you are diabetic or have hypertension (due to the treatment drugs for both of those conditions greatly increasing the amount of ACE2 enzymes, which seems to be the thing that turns things really south with Covid-19). BTW, ibuprofen also raises ACE2...

In the event you get infected and your breathing becomes critically difficult and you can't get on a respirator, just take some viagra or cialis - it reduces pulmonary hypertension and may very well save your life.

Some good reading here: https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lanres/PIIS2213-2600(20)30116-8.pdf


----------



## daveb

podzap said:


> ....just take some viagra or cialis - it reduces pulmonary hypertension and may very well save your life.



And if doesn't work you'll certainly have a memorable transition for you and those around you.....


----------



## podzap

daveb said:


> And if doesn't work you'll certainly have a memorable transition for you and those around you.....



https://www.health.harvard.edu/press_releases/viagra-and-pulmonary-hypertension


----------



## Dave Martell

daveb said:


> And if doesn't work you'll certainly have a memorable transition for you and those around you.....



The family will be playing ring toss when you hit the floor.


----------



## Lucretia

Here in Washington State (about an hour out of Seattle) everything is shutting down. We had our first fatality near us today at our "in network" hospital--a woman in her 50s. If you look at the numbers, the mortality rates have been pretty high in the state, but the numbers have been somewhat skewed by deaths at one nursing home (I want to say it's been around 6% of confirmed cases.) Very concerned about some of our local restaurants, as they are all closed except for takeout & delivery. Mr. Lucretia and I are in higher risk groups, so we've mostly been hiding out at home. Hoping our grocery follows the trend of plenty of produce--plenty of meat in the freezer and rice/pasta in the pantry, but perishables could run out if we're ordered to shelter in place. Our grocery stores are starting old fart/high risk shopping hours a couple times a week beginning tomorrow. I might need to run out and get some fresh veg. We tried ordering groceries for delivery, but the grocery is slammed and not scheduling any new deliveries at this time. I also have some ancient vegetable seeds that I might try starting to see if they're still viable.

On the positive side...I grew up in a household of 6 women. Running out of toilet paper was something to be feared. So I keep a good supply on hand. Mr. Lucretiah occasionally counts the rolls we have in the house and gives me a hard time about it. This might cure him of that nasty little habit.


----------



## bahamaroot

Some of the grocery stores here do senior and high risk group only for the first couple hours they open each morning. I think they do extra cleaning in the evening after closing to prepare for them.


Lucretia said:


> ...I grew up in a household of 6 women...


That in itself should be feared.


----------



## podzap

Lucretia said:


> Here in Washington State (about an hour out of Seattle) everything is shutting down. We had our first fatality near us today at our "in network" hospital--a woman in her 50s. If you look at the numbers, the mortality rates have been pretty high in the state, but the numbers have been somewhat skewed by deaths at one nursing home (I want to say it's been around 6% of confirmed cases.)



Back in late August 2009, I came down with one of the first cases of "swine flu" (H1N1) in Finland. It hit me less than three days after I'd returned home on an airplane from a vacation in Italy with my girlfriend at the time. I was 42 years old and pretty damned overweight, having a BMI of almost 36 (pre-diabetic diagnosis from my doctor also). I wound up in bed with several daily alternations of extreme fever and then cooling down, completely soaking my bed with sweat also several times per day. And yes, I was also drinking water like crazy. This is the only time in my life so far that I thought I might not make it through an illness, but ironic as it sounds the fatter you are the better chance you have getting through H1N1. It literally knocked 7kg (15.4 lbs) off of me in 1 week time. And it didn't come back, so it wasn't simply water lost due to sweating - I lost fat+muscle and a lot of it. I got so encouraged that I changed my diet and went on to lose another 25 kg (55 lbs or so). Being obese probably saved my life in that case, though - just imagine something that knocks 15 lbs off a thin person in 1 week time...

Fast forward to Covid-19 and the situation regarding obesity is just the opposite. The weight itself won't cause the virus to kill you, but we all know that obesity carries both diabetes as well as hypertension along with it. As mentioned, the medicines for either of those greatly increase your risk of having a fatal outcome should you contract this virus. Given that there are nationwide epidemics of obesity in both USA and also UK, the fatality rates may very well be higher than they are in places where folks are closer to 25 on the BMI scale. But the statistics will speak for themselves after all is said and done.


----------



## ITKKF

This just came through the corporate email.

Here are five simple things that company_name_here medical experts recommend to help yourself during this period:

1. Maintain regular contact with family and friends
 Social interaction is important; technology can help us all stay close

2. Stay connected to your colleagues
 Have a virtual coffee
 Set up a buddy system and check in daily

3. Limit media exposure, and use only reliable sources
 Keeping informed is good; non-stop news is not

4. Take care of yourself to reduce stress and increase immunity
 Get enough sleep, eat well and exercise if you can

5. Share your strength … and your concerns
 If you feel great, help someone out; if you do not feel great, accept help
 Speak to someone: a friend, a colleague, your manager or HR


----------



## DamageInc

We were recommended to swing by the office to get a monitor and keyboard to bring home in case we get neck or shoulder aches from working on our laptops.

Also, "if you get sick, notify your manager immediately".

I like working from home. Get to make important decisions while wearing pajamas. Food is better here too.


----------



## Luftmensch

CiderBear said:


> I'm not under "quarantine." I have been self isolating and working from home for 10 days because I recently came back from international travel, so I did not have any overlap in the building with the 2 confirmed cases.



Out of curiosity... under whose advice? And what instructions? Dont get me wrong... Im not suggesting you should doubt the advice you were given. Or encourage you to do the wrong thing.... In fact... You needn't answer those questions. I just want to be sure you are satisfied you got given good advice by a trusted authority (for instance a doctor and not your workplace) - particularly if it is driving you stir crazy!

We are working from home now. I don't miss public transport. I counted/estimated 150 _seats_. In the past, there could probably be another 100 standing. That is 250 people shoulder to shoulder in a tin can...


----------



## Michi

I made the call to self-isolate twelve days ago. It's working so far. Unfortunately, there is a time limit on that. Eventually, I will have to go back and make contact with people. At which point, I'll most likely get infected anyway. But, if I can string it out for another three or four months, that's one respirator I either won't get, or won't be taking away from someone else.

Current (competent) estimates of how many Australians will eventually catch the virus range as high as 80%. Meaning that it will be endemic, and that there is absolutely no way to run away from it.


----------



## Luftmensch

I have been providing some Australian updates along the way. I suppose it is not 'covid preparation' but it may be of interest to the international community here who might not otherwise see Ozzie news. Today's developments have been quite large:

Travel ban on all non-citizens!
QANTAS suspending international flights later this month and grounding a large portion of its fleet
Two-thirds of QANTAS employees stood-down (about 20,000)
Take this with a grain of salt: a friend of mine connected to the aviation industry said that grounding a plane basically means a minimum of six months until it flies due to all the maintenance and regulation in grounding it and bringing it back. Seems plausible


Reserve Bank:
cut interest rates to a record low of 0.25%
buying government bonds as part of its first-ever quantitative easing program

Some over-the-counter drugs (paracetamol, ventolin) being moved behind the counter to stop hoarders
Essentially one unit per customer

Tasmania (the little island off the big island) shuts its boarders. Probably the only state that can easily do this. Non-residents arriving in the state will need to self-quarantine.


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> Current (competent) estimates of how many Australians will eventually catch the virus range as high as 80%. Meaning that it will be endemic, and that there is absolutely no way to run away from it.



Do you have a link for this? I could only find iffy reports of 20%... I am sure the modelling is very fluid at this stage....




Michi said:


> I made the call to self-isolate twelve days ago. It's working so far. Unfortunately, there is a time limit on that. Eventually, I will have to go back and make contact with people.



We have been asked to... We aren't eliminating office requirements completely. We still have meetings in person _if required_. Otherwise it is phones and video conferencing. There are other aspects of the job that require us to be on site. This reduces my need to be there down to maybe once a week.

Right now the Government is ratcheting up mitigation. It could do nothing and 'fix it' by exposing everyone to accumulate herd immunity - but this would result in an unacceptable death toll. 'Flattening the curve' is the slow boil solution (how many times a day do we hear this now?). We have relatively low numbers of infection so we still have the ability to do contact tracing. Lets keep it that way! Expecting this to peak in a month is a pipe dream. Expecting it to peter out in 6 months is wistful thinking. This could last up to 18 months! From a public health perspective, it is not tenable for employers to be inflexible about working from home.

... Once the Government closes schools... work places will _have_ to be flexible. Maybe you should start a mini-union in your office and ask them to justify why you shouldn't work from home until better information is available?  


This is a live experiment. Admitting it is fascinating is perhaps a bit off-colour... but it is! It is history in the making.


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> Do you have a link for this? I could only find iffy reports of 20%... I am sure the modelling is very fluid at this stage....


Normans Swan on ABC, from memory. Or have a look through the past two days of ABC news. It does stand to reason. Given how infectious this thing is, it'll get almost everyone eventually. (From memory, the low range of the estimates was ~30%, so there is a huge range of uncertainty,)



> Right now the Government is ratcheting up mitigation. It could do nothing and 'fix it' by exposing everyone to accumulate herd immunity - but this would result in an unacceptable death toll. 'Flattening the curve' is the slow boil solution (how many times a day do we hear this now?). We have relatively low numbers of infection so we still have the ability to do contact tracing. Lets keep it that way! Expecting this to peak in a month is a pipe dream. Expecting it to peter out in 6 months is wistful thinking. This could last up to 18 months! From a public health perspective, it is not tenable for employers to be inflexible about working from home.


It will stop once enough people have been through the illness (or have died) for herd immunity to kick in. Or once we have a vaccine. Whichever comes sooner. My money is on herd immunity 



> ... Once the Government closes schools..


They are still in denial about this. It would most certainly be the right thing to do, if what you care about is the number of people who won't die. But the decision isn't about the number of dead people. Instead, it's about trying to avoid instant and catastrophic economic collapse.

What everyone is still in denial about is that catastrophic economic collapse is a near certainty at this point, close schools or no closed schools.


----------



## CiderBear

Luftmensch said:


> Out of curiosity... under whose advice? And what instructions? Dont get me wrong... Im not suggesting you should doubt the advice you were given. Or encourage you to do the wrong thing.... In fact... You needn't answer those questions. I just want to be sure you are satisfied you got given good advice by a trusted authority (for instance a doctor and not your workplace) - particularly if it is driving you stir crazy!
> 
> We are working from home now. I don't miss public transport. I counted/estimated 150 _seats_. In the past, there could probably be another 100 standing. That is 250 people shoulder to shoulder in a tin can...



Yep I'm not going to answer that


----------



## podzap

Michi said:


> What everyone is still in denial about is that catastrophic economic collapse is a near certainty at this point, close schools or no closed schools.



Maybe so. If that really happens, I'm super glad that I own almost every kind of tool imaginable.


----------



## Luftmensch

CiderBear said:


> Yep I'm not going to answer that



Absolutely . Just making sure you're satisfied with the support you were given. Anyway! Not long to go eh? Four more days...


----------



## WildBoar

Michi said:


> What everyone is still in denial about is that catastrophic economic collapse is a near certainty at this point, close schools or no closed schools.


I'm not so sure about this. Food is still being produced and distributes, as are other essential goods. And some online services such as Zoom are, well, zooming. Everything is not going away; many companies will be beaten into the ground, but some others will be turning into high-flyers. It will just take a while for this to balance out.

Just like there will be many people out of work due to their business closing down, there is an extensive need for more healthcare workers. There will never stop being essential needs; they will just be different than before.


----------



## lowercasebill

WildBoar said:


> I'm not so sure about this. Food is still being produced and distributes, as are other essential goods. And some online services such as Zoom are, well, zooming. Everything is not going away; many companies will be beaten into the ground, but some others will be turning into high-flyers. It will just take a while for this to balance out.
> 
> Just like there will be many people out of work due to their business closing down, there is an extensive need for more healthcare workers. There will never stop being essential needs; they will just be different than before.


Costco covid update ended with we need 100,000 new employees.


----------



## daveb

Future historians / economists will look back and conclude that the economy fully recovered in only x years.

Those living in the economy may view it differently.


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> Normans Swan on ABC, from memory. Or have a look through the past two days of ABC news. It does stand to reason. Given how infectious this thing is, it'll get almost everyone eventually. (From memory, the low range of the estimates was ~30%, so there is a huge range of uncertainty,)



I'll poke around and see what comes up. Im just a guy... what do I know!? Something is tickling my scepticism about 80% though. 

Coronacast did cite this article - they did some natty bayesian modelling to arrive at the conclusion that 86% of all infections in China were undocumented. The undocumented cases were less infectious but to balance the model it looks like they accounted for 79% of documented cases. Just to split a hair here... these numbers are about the sub-population of infected people. _Not_ relative to the entire population.

It seems like it is stabilising in China (for now). Currently China has 81,174 _confirmed_ cases. Over simplifying the article above.... lets say this makes up 14% of the infected population. The remaining undocumented population (86%) is then 498,640 people - a total of 579,814 infected. The current population is 1,439,324,000. Rounding the numbers... let use 600,000 infected out of 1.4 billion people. Thats a measly 0.04%!!! 

Over simplified I know... Did I get the numbers wrong there?


----------



## ITKKF

Luftmensch said:


> It seems like it is stabilising in China (for now). Currently China has 81,174 _confirmed_ cases. Over simplifying the article above.... lets say this makes up 14% of the infected population. The remaining undocumented population (86%) is then 498,640 people - a total of 579,814 infected. The current population is 1,439,324,000. Rounding the numbers... let use 600,000 infected out of 1.4 billion people. Thats a measly 0.04%!!!
> 
> Over simplified I know... Did I get the numbers wrong there?



No, you didn't. That's all assuming source data is close to correct of course. On the same data applying calculations for death toll gives us (3245 / 579814)*100 = 0.559%. That's a lot different from the official figures. And yes, deaths could be actually more, but not by a large margin.


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> What everyone is still in denial about is that catastrophic economic collapse is a near certainty at this point, close schools or no closed schools.





WildBoar said:


> I'm not so sure about this. Food is still being produced and distributes, as are other essential goods. And some online services such as Zoom are, well, zooming. Everything is not going away; many companies will be beaten into the ground, but some others will be turning into high-flyers. It will just take a while for this to balance out.
> 
> Just like there will be many people out of work due to their business closing down, there is an extensive need for more healthcare workers. There will never stop being essential needs; they will just be different than before.



Australia escaped the GFC relatively unscathed. All told we did very well - to the extent that we can pretend it never happened. It was a story we read about somebody else. We have the 5th highest household debt in the OECD. When unemployment rises - as it will when economic activity slows - all that debt implodes. Similarly look at all the corporate debt globally. Perhaps the past decade has only represented a band-aid fix and some of the pathologies that caused the GFC were never properly resolved. When industries shut down (tourism, hospitality), corporate debt cant be serviced either. Credit markets have looked at whats going on and freaked out.


----------



## Luftmensch

ITKKF said:


> No, you didn't. That's all assuming source data is close to correct of course. On the same data applying calculations for death toll gives us (3245 / 579814)*100 = 0.559%. That's a lot different from the official figures. And yes, deaths could be actually more, but not by a large margin.



I suppose one has to proceed with extreme caution when 'joe internet' pretends to understand an article that is predicated on evolving evidence and assumptions. Particularly when joe then attempts to draw conclusions from the article and extrapolate them into an oversimplified calculation 

It is easy to get stuck on specifics and not the broad conclusions of the modelling. The article presents a credible hypothesis (model): that the growth in confirmed cases (in China) can be plausibly attributed to a much, much larger population of undocumented cases.


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> I'll poke around and see what comes up. Im just a guy... what do I know!? Something is tickling my scepticism about 80% though.


I found the source again. I was wrong, the upper end of the range that is mentioned is 60%, not 80%. Still, that's 15 million Australians…
The most optimistic scenario expects 5 million infections and 50,000 deaths.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...0-000-coronavirus-deaths-20200316-p54amn.html


----------



## Luftmensch

podzap said:


> Back in late August 2009, I came down with one of the first cases of "swine flu" (H1N1) in Finland. It hit me less than three days after I'd returned home on an airplane from a vacation in Italy with my girlfriend at the time. I was 42 years old and pretty damned overweight, having a BMI of almost 36 (pre-diabetic diagnosis from my doctor also). I wound up in bed with several daily alternations of extreme fever and then cooling down, completely soaking my bed with sweat also several times per day. And yes, I was also drinking water like crazy. This is the only time in my life so far that I thought I might not make it through an illness, but ironic as it sounds the fatter you are the better chance you have getting through H1N1. It literally knocked 7kg (15.4 lbs) off of me in 1 week time. And it didn't come back, so it wasn't simply water lost due to sweating - I lost fat+muscle and a lot of it. I got so encouraged that I changed my diet and went on to lose another 25 kg (55 lbs or so). Being obese probably saved my life in that case, though - just imagine something that knocks 15 lbs off a thin person in 1 week time...
> 
> Fast forward to Covid-19 and the situation regarding obesity is just the opposite. The weight itself won't cause the virus to kill you, but we all know that obesity carries both diabetes as well as hypertension along with it. As mentioned, the medicines for either of those greatly increase your risk of having a fatal outcome should you contract this virus. Given that there are nationwide epidemics of obesity in both USA and also UK, the fatality rates may very well be higher than they are in places where folks are closer to 25 on the BMI scale. But the statistics will speak for themselves after all is said and done.



...By the way... Glad you survived it. Wow... I have had some 'bad' colds... but I don't think any of them were the flu. So I don't really have anything close as a point of reference - sounds like a horrible, horrible experience. 

Today's body image definitely idolises the fit and lean (hence the active wear craze). But that does not mean that all healthy body types require a marginal body fat percentage. So long as you are healthy, a bit of insulation can be good for you 

Remember in the 90's when emaciated, heroin-chic was in vogue!? At least we're not there anymore...


----------



## Michi

This study from the Imperial College in London is worth reading. It very clearly demonstrates the consequences of various mitigation strategies:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf


----------



## podzap

Luftmensch said:


> ...By the way... Glad you survived it. Wow... I have had some 'bad' colds... but I don't think any of them were the flu. So I don't really have anything close as a point of reference - sounds like a horrible, horrible experience.
> 
> Today's body image definitely idolises the fit and lean (hence the active wear craze). But that does not mean that all healthy body types require a marginal body fat percentage. So long as you are healthy, a bit of insulation can be good for you
> 
> Remember in the 90's when emaciated, heroin-chic was in vogue!? At least we're not there anymore...



Yeah, but "a bit of insulation" is like 27 BMI or so  Hell, at 36 BMI you could go on a hunger strike for 3 months and you'd be fine assuming you took vitamins and electrolyte supplements.


----------



## rob

Michi said:


> This study from the Imperial College in London is worth reading. It very clearly demonstrates the consequences of various mitigation strategies:
> 
> https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf



For those who don't read the report.

In short, it suggests the "do nothing" response would see 81 per cent of the British and American public infected, resulting in 510,000 deaths in the UK and 2.2 million deaths in the United States over the next three months.


----------



## Michi

Here is an excellent short video that explains how coronavirus works and how we can control how bad things are going to get:


----------



## rob

Luftmensch said:


> Do you have a link for this? I could only find iffy reports of 20%... I am sure the modelling is very fluid at this stage....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We have been asked to... We aren't eliminating office requirements completely. We still have meetings in person _if required_. Otherwise it is phones and video conferencing. There are other aspects of the job that require us to be on site. This reduces my need to be there down to maybe once a week.
> 
> Right now the Government is ratcheting up mitigation. It could do nothing and 'fix it' by exposing everyone to accumulate herd immunity - but this would result in an unacceptable death toll. 'Flattening the curve' is the slow boil solution (how many times a day do we hear this now?). We have relatively low numbers of infection so we still have the ability to do contact tracing. Lets keep it that way! Expecting this to peak in a month is a pipe dream. Expecting it to peter out in 6 months is wistful thinking. This could last up to 18 months! From a public health perspective, it is not tenable for employers to be inflexible about working from home.
> 
> ... Once the Government closes schools... work places will _have_ to be flexible. Maybe you should start a mini-union in your office and ask them to justify why you shouldn't work from home until better information is available?
> 
> 
> This is a live experiment. Admitting it is fascinating is perhaps a bit off-colour... but it is! It is history in the making.



Latest update (received email 1:23PM 20/03/2020) Schools not closing. CRAZY! Ive pulled my kids out of school.

_There is not widespread community transmission at this point, and levels of COVID-19 illness are likely to be very low. Children who are at all unwell are advised to be at home, and schools and teachers should exclude any unwell children who present to school. Any children with undetected symptoms are likely to be minimally infectious.

At this point there is no evidence of any school clusters where infections were driven by the student population or student introductions. The evidence is reviewed daily and advice will continue to be tailored to the evidence. Any change is policy advice will consider the risk to teachers as well as the broader community.

*Adj Clin Prof Brett Sutton*
Victorian Chief Health Officer
Health Protection Branch_


----------



## Michi

As of last night, the number of reported infections in Australia was 700. In Queensland, we went from 94 to 144 in a single day. That's a 50% growth rate over 24 hours.

The actual number of infections at this point is somewhere between 5,400 and 7,000 because the virus keeps spreading during the incubation period. Most of those people (probably around 70% of them) will be in the phase where they can infect others, but don't show symptoms yet. From here on out, pretty much all new cases will be due to community transmission, given that there are basically no more overseas arrivals now, and that they slowed to a trickle a few days ago.

In the face of these numbers, it is beyond me how people can maintain that it is safe to keep schools open. We know from bitter past experience that schools are a perfect environment for spreading disease quickly and effectively—chicken pox, measles, flu, etc.

Schools are still open only because closing them would mean instant and serious economic collapse. Apparently, it's preferable to let 150,000 Australians die instead of 50,000.

Some people still think that denial is the best way of dealing with reality.


----------



## NBrewster

Hey folks, up in the middle of the night and thought I'd share my experience so far as one of the (highly likely) infected. I'm 33, no preexisting conditions, healthy weight, no smoking. Assuming we have it, it's from someone in the US, and not from travel to any of the hot spots.

Below is my timeline:

Monday, March 8 - Light cough starts
Tuesday, March 9 - Shortness of breath while walking up stairs begins
Thursday, March 11 - Temperature elevated to ~99.5 and shortness of breath increases, realize it's likely I have COVID and begin self quarantine with my girlfriend who we assume has already been exposed (she will get sick 2 days later)
March 12 - 15 - cough is consistent but dry and periodic, temperature cycles between 99 and 100.5, frequent headache, shortness of breath peaks on Friday March 12 where I have to focus on breathing just standing in my kitchen to catch my breath. Goes away on March 13 and never returns
Tuesday, March 16 - Feeling good, no fever all day
Wednesday, March 17 - Work a full day, cough starts to get worse, fever returns in evening
March 18- Cough continues to get worse, fever comes back and is consistently ~100.5 but spikes into 101 territory, generally feel bad (never experienced a full week of fevers, it's exhausting)
March 19- Temperature still around 100, cough slightly improved, feeling less "bad"


What I've noticed is that this illness takes a LONG time to progress. It's not like flu where you have it and then you don't. I thought I was in the clear on Tuesday (8 days into illneses) and then boom, feeling worse than before. Never experienced anything like that. Now my 10th day in was the worst yet. Hopefully my 11th goes better.

The shortness of breath is the single scariest symptom and mercifully we've both been pretty much spared of severe respiratory issues so far. The fever is low grade so far but the way that it spikes very suddenly is also disturbing. I could see both of these things causing a lot of problems for older people.

This thing is no joke. Abide by your quarantines/self isolation and honestly for younger folks I would just stay away from older friends and family members as you may be contagious before being symptomatic.


----------



## Michi

NBrewster said:


> Hey folks, up in the middle of the night and thought I'd share my experience so far as one of the (highly likely) infected.


Thank you for sharing that! I really hope that you and your girl friend will recover quickly and completely.

Please let us know what's happening to both of you over the next few days!


----------



## Dhoff

Get well @NBrewster, I'm fairly sure I do not have Corvid from your description, my cough is wet and my head is killing me


----------



## NBrewster

Dhoff said:


> Get well @NBrewster, I'm fairly sure I do not have Corvid from your description, my cough is wet and my head is killing me



Keep in mind the symptoms seem to be all over the place so you should still make sure you get tested if you can and definitely stay inside.


----------



## Luftmensch

NBrewster said:


> Monday, March 8 - Light cough starts
> Tuesday, March 9 - Shortness of breath while wView them?alking up stairs begins
> Thursday, March 11 - Temperature elevated to ~99.5 and shortness of breath increases, realize it's likely I have COVID and begin self quarantine with my girlfriend who we assume has already been exposed (she will get sick 2 days later)
> March 12 - 15 - cough is consistent but dry and periodic, temperature cycles between 99 and 100.5, frequent headache, shortness of breath peaks on Friday March 12 where I have to focus on breathing just standing in my kitchen to catch my breath. Goes away on March 13 and never returns
> Tuesday, March 16 - Feeling good, no fever all day
> Wednesday, March 17 - Work a full day, cough starts to get worse, fever returns in evening
> March 18- Cough continues to get worse, fever comes back and is consistently ~100.5 but spikes into 101 territory, generally feel bad (never experienced a full week of fevers, it's exhausting)
> March 19- Temperature still around 100, cough slightly improved, feeling less "bad"
> 
> 
> What I've noticed is that this illness takes a LONG time to progress. It's not like flu where you have it and then you don't. I thought I was in the clear on Tuesday (8 days into illneses) and then boom, feeling worse than before. Never experienced anything like that. Now my 10th day in was the worst yet. Hopefully my 11th goes better.



Sounds awful! Take care of each other. Get better soon!


----------



## Luftmensch

Luftmensch said:


> I suppose one has to proceed with extreme caution when 'joe internet' pretends to understand an article that is predicated on evolving evidence and assumptions. Particularly when joe then attempts to draw conclusions from the article and extrapolate them into an oversimplified calculation



I'll be joe-internet again...

I gathered data from an article about documented cases in Australia:









This figure is not novel. As you can see, I fitted an exponential curve to the cumulative confirmed cases. Here is the silly part (just for fun)... using the same 'model', everybody in Australia will be a confirmed case by early May (note the Y-axis has changed to millions):







Of course... there is an XKCD for this sort of thing:






..... AAAAAA!!!


----------



## LostHighway

I'm not a restaurant worker nor do I have any affiliations with the foundation but for those of us in the USA there is a foundation to help restaurant workers and restaurants: https://www.restaurantworkerscf.org/news


----------



## LostHighway

For the maths and graphing inclined: https://www.zdnet.com/article/graph-theory-suggests-covid-19-might-be-a-small-world-after-all/


----------



## HRC_64

This part seems to be willful denial...???



> Any children with undetected symptoms are likely to be minimally infectious.






rob said:


> Latest update (received email 1:23PM 20/03/2020) Schools not closing. CRAZY! Ive pulled my kids out of school.
> 
> There is not widespread community transmission at this point, and levels of COVID-19 illness are likely to be very low. Children who are at all unwell are advised to be at home, and schools and teachers should exclude any unwell children who present to school.* Any children with undetected symptoms are likely to be minimally infectious.*
> 
> At this point there is no evidence of any school clusters where infections were driven by the student population or student introductions. The evidence is reviewed daily and advice will continue to be tailored to the evidence. Any change is policy advice will consider the risk to teachers as well as the broader community.


----------



## VICTOR J CREAZZI

My wife and I just got home from a road trip. It is a changed world since we left home.

Today I tried wearing nitrile gloves in public. I'm not sure that I get it. I bought gas and felt better touching the key pad, but then got in the car and grabbed the steering wheel, went to the grocery, used the bathroom and washed my gloved hands. 


Unless you are constantly changing your gloves it is hard to see how this changes transmission, though washing gloved hands does seem exponentially more effective as the gloves are smooth and not absorptive.

Came home and washed my gloved hands again, then washed my hands. I' keep doing this for a while when I venture out. If nothing else, my hands and fingernails do stay cleaner.


----------



## WildBoar

No question it was a bit uncomfortable working the gas pump this evening. There is no effort by the station owner/ attendees to wipe the keypads, nozzles, etc.

My 7-year-old is fond of touching the Pedestrian Crossing buttons at the intersections when we need to cross the street. It is very frustrating, as it will typically be 20-40 minutes before we are back at home for him to properly wash up, and he touches his face, as well as my wife and I, constantly as he horses around during the walks.


----------



## Chuckles

The whole point of wearing disposable gloves is to change them often. If you aren’t going to change them out why not just wear some nice leather driving gloves or work gloves or similar?


----------



## HRC_64

Chuckles said:


> The whole point of wearing disposable gloves is to change them often. If you aren’t going to change them out why not just wear some nice leather driving gloves or work gloves or similar?



+1

Probably better to use garden variety PPE with common sense. ie, Use some old work gloves to touch the dirty pump, take them off throw them in the trunk. Grab steering with with clean, bare hands....etc.

There's also some strategy elements about how ofter you should be taking on risks like pumping gas and grovery shopping etc as this thing gets more and more widespread.

This is worth mentioning because if you go our 1-2x a week its alot easeier to get your head around throwing wawy your PPE and washing all your clothes when you get home., etc.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK115274/

If you tried to keep that level of prophylactics going out 10x times a day and wearing 6x different outfits, it would be vewed as an absurd burden. Of course the "absurd burden" to the lay person is probably the "everyday reality" to an ER or Medical worker right now.


----------



## lowercasebill

NBrewster said:


> Hey folks, up in the middle of the night and thought I'd share my experience so far as one of the (highly likely) infected. I'm 33, no preexisting conditions, healthy weight, no smoking. Assuming we have it, it's from someone in the US, and not from travel to any of the hot spots.
> 
> Below is my timeline:
> 
> Monday, March 8 - Light cough starts
> Tuesday, March 9 - Shortness of breath while walking up stairs begins
> Thursday, March 11 - Temperature elevated to ~99.5 and shortness of breath increases, realize it's likely I have COVID and begin self quarantine with my girlfriend who we assume has already been exposed (she will get sick 2 days later)
> March 12 - 15 - cough is consistent but dry and periodic, temperature cycles between 99 and 100.5, frequent headache, shortness of breath peaks on Friday March 12 where I have to focus on breathing just standing in my kitchen to catch my breath. Goes away on March 13 and never returns
> Tuesday, March 16 - Feeling good, no fever all day
> Wednesday, March 17 - Work a full day, cough starts to get worse, fever returns in evening
> March 18- Cough continues to get worse, fever comes back and is consistently ~100.5 but spikes into 101 territory, generally feel bad (never experienced a full week of fevers, it's exhausting)
> March 19- Temperature still around 100, cough slightly improved, feeling less "bad"
> 
> 
> What I've noticed is that this illness takes a LONG time to progress. It's not like flu where you have it and then you don't. I thought I was in the clear on Tuesday (8 days into illneses) and then boom, feeling worse than before. Never experienced anything like that. Now my 10th day in was the worst yet. Hopefully my 11th goes better.
> 
> The shortness of breath is the single scariest symptom and mercifully we've both been pretty much spared of severe respiratory issues so far. The fever is low grade so far but the way that it spikes very suddenly is also disturbing. I could see both of these things causing a lot of problems for older people.
> 
> This thing is no joke. Abide by your quarantines/self isolation and honestly for younger folks I would just stay away from older friends and family members as you may be contagious before being symptomatic.


Thank you for sharing that. I am old and have risk factors all the more motivated to continue quarantine. Get well !


----------



## lowercasebill

I am sequestered now but when you venture out take clorox wipes grab the gas pump with the wipe 
Take hand sanitizer every where. Get back in the car and wipe down credit card. If you have to open a door outside of home use a wipe or paper towel. Be safe


----------



## WildBoar

I have a small bottle of hand sanitizer in my car, but our supply of sanitizer and wipes is pretty small overall and we have to preserve them mainly for use around the house. My wife went to two grocery stores last night, and both were picked clean of all cleaning products, all paper products, and most of the food.


----------



## lowercasebill

Good luck if the liquor store is open get everclear.
Maybe Lowe's for bulk disinfectant. Check there web site first


----------



## lowercasebill

Quats and cotton. 
I your cleaning agents active ingredient is xxxxxdimethy ammonium chloride. Cotton absorbs it and diminishes it's effectiveness. Use microfiber cloth or paper towels.
Source USDA.
Google quats and cotton for the paper.


----------



## podzap

They don't sell Everclear here in Finland. Strongest stuff you can get here in the liquor stores is Pernod Absinthe (68% ABV). About two weeks ago, I went and picked up 2 large bottles. The oils inside the Absinthe also keep your hands from drying out. Good thing I don't actually enjoy drinking Absinthe very much - it should last us a long time.


----------



## lowercasebill

Clever stay safe


----------



## Bert2368

Chuckles said:


> The whole point of wearing disposable gloves is to change them often. If you aren’t going to change them out why not just wear some nice leather driving gloves or work gloves or similar?


 My nieces just got back from a flight. TSA agents going through their stuff wore gloves- Which they did not bother to change over the entire time period they were in the girls sight, during which time they were groping dozens of people and their stuff. The girls brought their own food, which bag the TSA agents unpacked and handled every item.

Just in case flying wasn't enough exposure, you know.


----------



## nutmeg

Gloves are very convenient and a great investment.. no need for toilet paper anymore.


----------



## daveb

TSA is using gloves for their protection and not yours. 

In the restaurant / food service world we change gloves between tasks to protect the diners, protecting ourselves is secondary.


----------



## Bert2368




----------



## Codered

Guys stop going out. Take your money buy supplies and go somewhere to spend the next two months isolated. Work can wait society can wait. No job is worth dying or loosing loved ones. This is nothing to joke about. In Italy yesterday 678 died and today 793 and the numbers are growing. Spain is loosing 250 a day and following into Italy's steps. Doctors ar overwhelmed tired and cannot do anything about it. What's worse is that a lot of young people are starting to get seriously ill also. They beg other nations to take this extremely seriously and everybody to stay locked at home.


----------



## NBrewster

Codered said:


> Guys stop going out. Take your money buy supplies and go somewhere to spend the next two months isolated. Work can wait society can wait. No job is worth dying or loosing loved ones. This is nothing to joke about. In Italy yesterday 678 died and today 793 and the numbers are growing. Spain is loosing 250 a day and following into Italy's steps. Doctors ar overwhelmed tired and cannot do anything about it. What's worse is that a lot of young people are starting to get seriously ill also. They beg other nations to take this extremely seriously and everybody to stay locked at home.



I'm hopeful that I've finally turned a corner on this thing, but god damn I'm tired. Partner has also lost her sense of taste, which is not a well documented symptom but I'm sure will resonate here as losing it would jeopardize a lot of folks' livelihoods. Hopefully it comes back soon.

I can't imagine being older or having an immune disorder and getting this. As I've said before. I'm healthy, active, 33 year old and it put me down for a week. 8 days of constant fevers, cough, headache, some breathing issues. It's really really nasty. Stay indoors.


----------



## lowercasebill

NBrewster said:


> I'm hopeful that I've finally turned a corner on this thing, but god damn I'm tired. Partner has also lost her sense of taste, which is not a well documented symptom but I'm sure will resonate here as losing it would jeopardize a lot of folks' livelihoods. Hopefully it comes back soon.
> 
> I can't imagine being older or having an immune disorder and getting this. As I've said before. I'm healthy, active, 33 year old and it put me down for a week. 8 days of constant fevers, cough, headache, some breathing issues. It's really really nasty. Stay indoors.


Thanks for posting. Your first hand account is invaluable to us (or at least me) i hope your girlfriend gets well soon


----------



## Dave Martell

NBrewster said:


> I'm hopeful that I've finally turned a corner on this thing, but god damn I'm tired. Partner has also lost her sense of taste, which is not a well documented symptom but I'm sure will resonate here as losing it would jeopardize a lot of folks' livelihoods. Hopefully it comes back soon.
> 
> I can't imagine being older or having an immune disorder and getting this. As I've said before. I'm healthy, active, 33 year old and it put me down for a week. 8 days of constant fevers, cough, headache, some breathing issues. It's really really nasty. Stay indoors.




Did she take Theraflu? 

I'm glad to hear that you're doing better.


----------



## labor of love

Codered said:


> Guys stop going out. Take your money buy supplies and go somewhere to spend the next two months isolated. Work can wait society can wait. No job is worth dying or loosing loved ones. This is nothing to joke about. In Italy yesterday 678 died and today 793 and the numbers are growing. Spain is loosing 250 a day and following into Italy's steps. Doctors ar overwhelmed tired and cannot do anything about it. What's worse is that a lot of young people are starting to get seriously ill also. They beg other nations to take this extremely seriously and everybody to stay locked at home.


I still have my kitchen job for which I am fortunate. If we’re still operating in a month I might decide to quit and self isolate. Just doesn’t seem worth it.


----------



## Luftmensch

NBrewster said:


> I'm hopeful that I've finally turned a corner on this thing



We hope so too. Stay on an upward trajectory.


----------



## Luftmensch

Australia update:

New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT are to shutdown non-essential services over the next 48 hours.


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> Australia update:
> 
> New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT are to shutdown non-essential services over the next 48 hours.


And close their borders, except for essential services and workers. Victoria is closing school starting Tuesday (bringing forward the Easter holiday). The Northern Territory and South Australia borders are closed as well. I expect that Queensland will follow suit shortly, possibly with an exception or special rule for the Twin Towns (Coollangatta and Tweed Heads).

There is consideration now of preventing people from moving between suburbs with high and low infection rates.

I briefly went shopping for veggies today. All very civilised and fairly quiet. A lot of the staple foods (rice, flour, pasta, canned tomatoes, and similar) are sold out. But, otherwise, everything else is available at normal prices.


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> Victoria is closing school starting Tuesday (bringing forward the Easter holiday).



I was thinking they would bring forward the Easter holiday break. Honestly, I thought they were going to wait a little longer. Good to see them act.



Michi said:


> And close their borders, except for essential services and workers.



Also... WA and SA 'shutting' their boarders like Tassie...


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> I was thinking they would bring forward the Easter holiday break. Honestly, I thought they were going to wait a little longer. Good to see them act.
> 
> 
> 
> Also... WA and SA 'shutting' their boarders like Tassie...


Ah, yes, I forgot about Tasmania. That makes Queensland the only remaining state with (internally) open borders.

To be accurate, Australians can still move from state to state. But, unless they fall into one of the exempt categories, they will have to self-isolate for 14 days.


----------



## Nemo

Michi said:


> And close their borders, except for essential services and workers.


I wonder whether I'll be able to cross the border to Wodonga for my list tomorrow. I assume that my work would be classified as an essential service. I might take the car instead of the bike, just in case.


----------



## Michi

Nemo said:


> I wonder whether I'll be able to cross the border to Wodonga for my list tomorrow.


You are working in heath care, if I remember correctly? If so, I wouldn't anticipate any problem.


----------



## podzap

Anyone who is diabetic is at high risk of having a poor outcome from coronavirus infection. There are three major contributing factors to this:

1. Elevated levels of ACE2 (https://diabetes.diabetesjournals.org/content/59/12/2994)
2. Suppressed autoimmune system (https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2019.00451/full)
3. Elevated blood glucose - this virus, like others, seems to have a really sweet tooth

Type 1 diabetics have far less control over this situation, but type 2 diabetics can greatly improve their chances of survival by acting immediately. Ketogenic diet will flatten the blood glucose roller coaster and very likely remove the need for insulin within less than one month. Of course, ditching carbs is pretty expensive and this is one of the reasons why poor people are so often also obese people.

Going full-blown keto severely limits your nutritional opportunities, especially in this situation now when things are hard to get. With that in mind, electrolyte control is key: magnesium, calcium, sodium and potassium are key. Potasssium and sodium can easily be gotten on a keto diet, but the other two not so much - supplements (tablets) are needed.

Lose weight now. And stop smoking. You can thank me later


----------



## Nemo

Michi said:


> You are working in heath care, if I remember correctly? If so, I wouldn't anticipate any problem.



Yeah, I work in hospitals, so I assume I'd be OK.

Actually, I don't think that Vic has closed the borders anyway, so shouldn't be a problem anyway.

WA, SA and Tas have all closed borders, however.


----------



## Michi

Nemo said:


> Actually, I don't think that Vic has closed the borders anyway, so should't br a problem anyw


My apologies, I believe you are right. I jumped the gun there. On the other hand, it doesn't matter, because it is only a matter of days.


----------



## lowercasebill

Update from the hardest hit county in SE Pennsylvania.
Rationing of food by both Wegmans and Costco. Only 1 butter 2 frozen veg. Etc. Still no family pack chicken thighs. (I think i will confit a chicken leg) potato chip isle sparse.
Neighbor placed an online order for pickup Tues. Earliest pick-up today at 4PM
Got fresh broccoli!! And Italian sausage. I have a meat grinder and a frozen pork shoulder. Will order sausage seasoning tomorrow i already have sage will get Italian german and Swedish potato sausage. Which i never heard of.
Any of the Scandinavian contingent care to give some guidance?
Here nothing is supposed to come in your house without being wiped or sprayed. Reusable grocery bags should be washed or sprayed plastic bags to recycle not brought in. Cardboard (amazon boxes) sprayed or left outside for 24 hours.
Well enough of my bored to tears rambling. What's going on where you live. 
P.S. my adult son did the shopping.
All in all i am lucky compared to so many others stay safe and post.


----------



## Luftmensch

Nemo said:


> Actually, I don't think that Vic has closed the borders anyway, so shouldn't be a problem anyway.
> 
> WA, SA and Tas have all closed borders, however.



As you have found out... Only WA, NT, SA and Tas have... SA being the anomaly there... The only east-coast state that is highly connected.

To be fair, NSW, VIC and QLD are the hot-spots right now. I can see why the others would want to keep us out 



Michi said:


> My apologies, I believe you are right. I jumped the gun there. On the other hand, it doesn't matter, because it is only a matter of days.



Maybe so. Two/three weeks ago Dr Swan did say he thought it would be easier to close the state boarders than city boarders - this lead to my muddled conversation with @Nemo [#338, #340]. I still maintain that is it difficult to control movement in a sprawling city like Sydney (but fully believe shutdown is possible - and it is happening!). It has a vast perimeter and many points of entry. Similarly for its suburbs. It would take something extraordinary for them to start boarder control in the suburbs (though I think legally possible). I only bring this up again to draw a comparison with the vast boarders that QLD, NSW and VIC share. Again, there are many points of entry. It might not be a good uses of resources to bother patrolling - given the infection rates are similar. The other states have lower numbers... and probably more entries via flights than road.... Fortunately shutdown conditions in VIC, ACT and NSW will slow down boarder crossings a teeny-bit. Get with the program QLD!!


----------



## Michi

One thing that no-one seems to be talking about at this point is what to do with all the people who have had the virus and have recovered.

These people no longer carry the virus and are likely going to be immune for a while thereafter. (The data on re-infection is sketchy, so we are not totally sure, but it seems likely.) As of today, worldometer reports 335,000 infections, of which 97,000 have recovered. That is nearly one third.

Australia has just gone into pretty much complete lock-down, except for essentials. We are told that this state of affairs is going to last for probably at least six months. Three months from now, we'll have tens or hundreds of thousands of recovered people who could go back to work.

Making that happen will be tough though. How do you tell when someone is walking along the street whether or not they have recovered? And how do you stop morons who have not had the infection going along for a ride?

Another big challenge coming up…


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> Similarly for its suburbs. It would take something extra-ordinary for them to start boarder control in the suburbs (though I think legally possible).


Legally, it's quite easy. You declare martial law and bring in the army. Which is what will happen if the population doesn't play along with the restrictions.


----------



## Kippington

Michi said:


> How do you tell when someone is walking along the street whether or not they have recovered? And how do you stop morons who have not had the infection going along for a ride?


It's possible to prove someone has built an immune response. It can be certified.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serology
Listening to virologists talking freely, there's an unproven possibility that there are heaps of people wondering around with the virus with little-to-no symptoms - e.g. small children. Serological testing after the outbreak can tell us how widespread the virus got.

_- "Serological surveys are often used by epidemiologists to determine the prevalence of a disease in a population. Such surveys are sometimes performed by random, anonymous sampling from samples taken for other medical tests or to assess the prevalence of antibodies of a specific organism or protective titre of antibodies in a population. Serological surveys are usually used to quantify the proportion of people or animals in a population positive for a specific antibody or the titre or concentrations of an antibody. These surveys are potentially the most direct and informative technique available to infer the dynamics of a population's susceptibility and level of immunity."_​


----------



## HRC_64

Just adding a couple things to be aware of from recent articles:

* One-in-THREE positive coronavirus tests are from 'silent carriers' who show NO symptoms*, classified Chinese government data suggests
>https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...arriers-classified-Chinese-data-suggests.html

*Lost Sense of Smell May Be Peculiar Clue to Coronavirus Infection*
>https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/coronavirus-symptoms-smell-taste.html


----------



## Michi

Kippington said:


> It's possible to prove someone has built an immune response. It can be certified.
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serology


Right. We can test for the antibodies. But implementing the "reintegration" of people who have recovered will be challenging. It'll require millions of test kits, plus some way to certify someone as having been infected, and then policing mechanisms to prevent people who are potentially still infectious from getting in under the radar.

That's not a simple problem to solve.


----------



## Nemo

Kippington said:


> It's possible to prove someone has built an immune response. It can be certified.
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serology
> Listening to virologists talking freely, there's an unproven possibility that there are heaps of people wondering around with the virus with little-to-no symptoms - e.g. small children. Serological testing after the outbreak can tell us how widespread the virus got.
> 
> _- "Serological surveys are often used by epidemiologists to determine the prevalence of a disease in a population. Such surveys are sometimes performed by random, anonymous sampling from samples taken for other medical tests or to assess the prevalence of antibodies of a specific organism or protective titre of antibodies in a population. Serological surveys are usually used to quantify the proportion of people or animals in a population positive for a specific antibody or the titre or concentrations of an antibody. These surveys are potentially the most direct and informative technique available to infer the dynamics of a population's susceptibility and level of immunity."_​


 While serology can provide evidence of past infection, it doesn't automatically prove immunity. For diseases where this has been studied, it is known wheter it does confer immunity (e.g.: hepatitis B) or does not (e.g.: HIV).

Antibodies to existing human coronaviruses probably do confer short term (maybe 2 years) immunity so this is likely with Covid19 but we just don't know yet.


----------



## CiderBear

HRC_64 said:


> Just adding a couple things to be aware of from recent articles:
> 
> * One-in-THREE positive coronavirus tests are from 'silent carriers' who show NO symptoms*, classified Chinese government data suggests
> >https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...arriers-classified-Chinese-data-suggests.html
> 
> *Lost Sense of Smell May Be Peculiar Clue to Coronavirus Infection*
> >https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/coronavirus-symptoms-smell-taste.html



Lol Dailymail


----------



## Nemo

We are facing a particular issue at the moment with elective surgery.

General anaesthesia is a very high risk for transmission due to the aerosolisation of the viral load with airway management procedures. This, combined with the apparent high rate of almost asymptomatic infection makes every patient a potential source of infection for all theatre staff but particularly the anaesthesia team.

I suspect that this will lead us to stop doing elective surgery soon.

We will probably turn most theatres int ICUs soon enough anyway.


----------



## Nemo

I don't know about secret Chinese documents in the daily mail, but it's worth looking at the town of Vo in Veneto (Northern Italy).

Early in the epidemic, they tested everyone (3300) and found that 3% were infected and many of these had no symptoms.


----------



## labor of love

Has the topic of supplementation come up yet? What are some options for over the counter supplements that can help against corona?
Yes yes I’m aware about immune system boosting foods and other dietary measures that can be taken. Diet is not the question I’m asking about.


----------



## Lucretia

NBrewster said:


> I'm hopeful that I've finally turned a corner on this thing, but god damn I'm tired. Partner has also lost her sense of taste, which is not a well documented symptom but I'm sure will resonate here as losing it would jeopardize a lot of folks' livelihoods. Hopefully it comes back soon.
> 
> I can't imagine being older or having an immune disorder and getting this. As I've said before. I'm healthy, active, 33 year old and it put me down for a week. 8 days of constant fevers, cough, headache, some breathing issues. It's really really nasty. Stay indoors.



Seeing lots of articles regarding loss of sense of taste and/or smell: https://www.forbes.com/sites/judyst...d-taste-in-coronavirus-patients/#2e5dbf435101

Hope you guys are on the mend and feeling better.


----------



## madelinez

Vitamin C, Zinc Picolinate and *moderate* does of vitamin D have all been shown to be mildly beneficial for reducing the symptoms and duration of a viral infection. We're talking less than 5% difference though...


----------



## HRC_64

CiderBear said:


> Lol Dailymail



Seem to be easily cross referenced...
(if you're into that kind of thing)

>*How ‘silent spreaders’ are fueling the coronavirus pandemic*
https://www.latimes.com/science/sto...preaders-are-fueling-the-coronavirus-pandemic


> Since a novel coronavirus first made its presence known in China, public health officials around the world have had one fervent hope: That people who are infected but not sick would pass the virus to others only rarely. That would give these silent spreaders no more than a bit part in driving a global outbreak.
> 
> That hope is in danger of being dashed.
> 
> In the period before the Chinese government threw up a massive barricade around the province of Hubei to block the coronavirus’ escape, *almost 9 out of 10 infections were transmitted by carriers who were still healthy, according to a new simulation* of the virus’ spread.




>Despite no symptoms, seven Grand Princess passengers test positive for coronavirus
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Despite-no-symptoms-seven-Grand-Princess-15148258.php


> Seven Grand Princess cruise ship passengers quarantined at Travis Air Force Base in Fairfield— *all with no symptoms — tested positive for the coronavirus*, The Chronicle has learned, as the first batch of swab results from the voluntary testing came back Friday.




Stranded cruise ship passengers describe chaotic flight home
>https://apnews.com/49ea07abf121757a1c24887a44df5885


> The jet carrying 359 people, including hundreds of American and Canadian passengers from a Costa Cruises ship flying home from France, landed at Atlanta’s international airport as emergency responders, and health and customs officials deployed to screen them for the coronavirus.
> 
> *Three people on the flight tested positive for the coronavirus before landing but had no symptoms*, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said. Thirteen others were sick but hadn’t been tested, and one passenger was sent to a local hospital.


----------



## Midsummer

Nemo said:


> We are facing a particular issue at the moment with elective surgery.
> 
> General anaesthesia is a very high risk for transmission due to the aerosolisation of the viral load with airway management procedures. This, combined with the apparent high rate of almost asymptomatic infection makes every patient a potential source of infection for all theatre staff but particularly the anaesthesia team.
> 
> I suspect that this will lead us to stop doing elective surgery soon.
> 
> We will probably turn most theatres int ICUs soon enough anyway.



Just stopped elective procedures here in Florida.


----------



## Kippington

Nemo said:


> While serology can provide evidence of past infection, it doesn't automatically prove immunity. For diseases where this has been studied, it is known wheter it does confer immunity (e.g.: hepatitis B) or does not (e.g.: HIV).


Without the presence of antibodies, wouldn't that mean that the person who tested positive for the virus is still a carrier (given a reasonable time-frame between the two tests)?

_"Our findings indicate that the MN assay is specific for functional SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and could be applied in surveillance of population immunity for this virus."_
- *Serological and molecular findings during SARS-CoV-2 infection: The first case study in Finland*​


----------



## HRC_64

Kippington said:


> Without the presence of antibodies, wouldn't that mean that the person who tested positive for the virus is still a carrier (given a reasonable time-frame between the two tests)?
> 
> _"Our findings indicate that the MN assay is specific for functional SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and could be applied in surveillance of population immunity for this virus."_
> - *Serological and molecular findings during SARS-CoV-2 infection: The first case study in Finland*​




apparently antibodies are necessary but not sufficient,
Nemo I used the example of HIV/Aids...



> Most people who become infected with HIV will develop antibodies to the virus within 2 months.



The antibodies are apparently widespread in infected populations in the case of HIV/Aids. However, there isn't typically thought to be immunity as a result.


----------



## Luftmensch

labor of love said:


> Has the topic of supplementation come up yet? What are some options for over the counter supplements that can help against corona?
> Yes yes I’m aware about immune system boosting foods and other dietary measures that can be taken. Diet is not the question I’m asking about.



Not so much in this thread... Generally I am sceptical about the supplements industry. There are many scientifically proven cases where supplements benefit the patient. But there is a larger market for 'wellness' supplements. These are often only regulated as food - not medicine. This means claims on the bottle are likely to be stretching the truth... and there is often no independent testing to even certify you are getting the dose advertised on the bottle.

In my non-medical opinion: unless a doctor has told you to do so, don't bother taking supplements. Want to be prepared for COVID-19? Eat healthy. Sleep healthy. Be healthy.

What isnt being talked about here is the _other health conditions_. Stay healthy: follow all advice and medication you were given for pre-existing conditions. Don't exaggerate anything you were supposed to be controlling. Also be more risk aware - you want to minimise your chance of physical accidents. As medical resources get diverted to handle COVID-19, the capacity of the system to handle other problems is diminished. Don't land yourself in hospital just because you weren't thinking straight.


----------



## orangehero

As soon as all the corporate and banking bailouts go through they will lift most of the restrictions. If it doesn't happen relatively soon expect them to ramp up measures until the bailouts are approved. That will be the actual milestone. It's almost magical how they are finding billions upon billions of dollars to spend right now...the tell is that it's not on actual healthcare.


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> Australia has just gone into pretty much completely lock-down, except for essentials. We are told that this state of affairs is going to last for probably at least six months. Three months from now, we'll have tens or hundreds of thousands of recovered people who could go back to work.
> 
> Making that happen will be tough though. How do you tell when someone is walking along the street whether or not they have recovered? And how do you stop morons who have not had the infection going along for a ride?



The simple answer is: it doesn't matter. Lockdown is lockdown. The law (as far as I am aware) is not conditioned on your medical record. It is conditioned on your activity. From a law enforcement point of view, they just care whether you are obeying the directive.




Michi said:


> But implementing the "reintegration" of people who have recovered will be challenging.



Maybe I am on a different wavelength? But there is no such thing? Ask yourself what "reintegration" means. If you are sick: isolate. If you have had contact (or international flight): quarantine. Once you are well and have past 14 days - you are "reintegrated"?!

A few weeks ago our main problem was international movement importing the disease. This is what travel bans are for. Now the main form of spreading is community transmission. Lockdown is about lowering the R0 of the disease in the community. As I said, I don't think lockdown cares one brass razoo about your medical past. It will be a function of community transmission. Once community transmission eases up, the lockdown conditions will be eased back. 

I'll bring up my confusion about lockdown once more:



Luftmensch said:


> @Nemo [#338, #340].



Lockdown isn't about welding the doors shut. Life goes on with restrictions that we are not used to. You _can_ still go to work. Note that the indoor gathering rule _excludes_ workplaces. If your workplace is progressive, you should be working from home. Non-essential activities (gyms, museums, cinema, the pub) will not be allowed until the government lifts the restriction. I raise this subtlety again... because it is import. In Australia, there has been no hint (currently) that the police are going to stop you at the train station and interrogate your intended movements. I suspect the laws will be used more heavily to prosecute pull factors - if a pub opens, they are likely to face heavier penalties than their patrons. Case in point: I don't think any of the people at Bondi beach on the weekend got charged.



And while I am on a bit of a rant .... I dislike the way "self-isolation" is being commonly used. As I understand it:

"quarantine" is the word used to describe the process of separating healthy individuals from the population in case they get ill
"isolation" is the term used to describe the process of separating ill individuals (diagnostically confirmed) from the rest of the population.
You isolate if you are a confirmed case
You self-isolate if you are undiagnosed and become ill.
You _dont_ self-isolate if you disembark from an international flight.... You quarantine.... Although if you get ill, I suppose quarantine becomes self-isolation... which is the point of quarantine!

.... but hey I am being a pedant. This is only my point of view.... and it doesn't change the prescribed behaviour.


----------



## Michi

Right now, we have only a handful of people who have recovered, so re-integration is not really an issue. As this thing gets worse, I fully expect more tightening of the rules around how many people can congregate and the like. Similarly, we already have states with closed borders.

There will be a point when we will have lots of people who have recovered. Keeping these people bottled up and preventing them from crossing state borders (or forcing them into self-isolation for 14 days despite having recovered) would be counter-productive. I would think that we would want those people who've had the infection to go back to work as quickly as possible, otherwise we just make the economic damage even worse.

So, eventually, there will have to be some controlled path back to normalcy, simply because it doesn't make sense to keep, say, 15 million immune people bottled up just because there are still a few dozen infected people around.

Also, there are probably quite a lot of people already who have had the infection and just never noticed it. Heck, for all I know, I may have had corona virus already and I'm unaware of that fact. If so, there would be no need for me to stay bottled up at home right now.

I'm not suggesting that any particular path should be taken. It's just that it seems a complex problem to solve. How and at what point do we decide who can and who can't do what again? Especially if there might be a risk that some idiots cheat and, out of self-interest, try to pass themselves off as immune when, in fact, they are not.

Part of getting back to normal will have to be extensive testing, so we can at least know who is/was infected and who isn't. Without this, we can't make a call as to when it is safe to relax restrictions again.

I have a feeling that this will not be entirely trivial to deal with.


----------



## orangehero

I suspect there are many more asymptomatic cases of this virus. After they get testing for active cases going on adequate scale, hopefully they will not delay getting testing running for present immunity so people can return to work without fear.


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> Legally, it's quite easy. You declare martial law and bring in the army. Which is what will happen if the population doesn't play along with the restrictions.



Maaaaaybe.... That would be a pretty heavy handed approach. Earlier [#346] I mentioned The Biosecurity Act has provision for establishing 'human health zones': 



> The Director of Human Biosecurity may establish a human health response zone if it is necessary for purposes of preventing, or reducing the risk of, a listed human disease emerging, establishing or spreading in Australia or its territories.
> 
> The Department of Health has policy and operational carriage of this power, however biosecurity officers have the power to ask questions and/or require written information to be provided by individuals within a human biosecurity response zone.



Martial law is a very blunt, heavy handed tool - I doubt the Government would relinquish control to the military. Observers of the law would be extremely alarmed. More likely, the Government would call on the military to assist - as it has done in natural disasters... but even that is more legally ambiguous than you might assume. An interesting quote:



> Each state and territory has legislative arrangements establishing various emergency service agencies and empowering such agencies to lawfully take action that could otherwise constitute a tort or crime.30 However, none specifically contemplates the possibility that ADF personnel will be used to augment emergency services. Therefore, ADF personnel have no more power or authority when assisting emergency services than any member of the public. But, unlike a private person, ADF personnel do not qualify for protection against civil liability under ‘Good Samaritan’ legislation because assistance rendered by ADF members (in that capacity) occurs in the course of paid duty.31 Therefore an ADF member (or the Commonwealth as the ‘employer’),32 if subject to a civil suit arising from disaster response activities, may (in the absence of any other legislative protection) only be able to rely upon common law defences, such as ‘necessity’. Further, some actions may give rise to criminal liability.


----------



## podzap

Kippington said:


> Without the presence of antibodies, wouldn't that mean that the person who tested positive for the virus is still a carrier (given a reasonable time-frame between the two tests)?
> 
> _"Our findings indicate that the MN assay is specific for functional SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and could be applied in surveillance of population immunity for this virus."_
> - *Serological and molecular findings during SARS-CoV-2 infection: The first case study in Finland*​



Awesome reading - I hadn't seen that yet even though the study was conducted less than 4 kilometers from my house. We do have a lot of highly educated folks in the field of microbiology and bioengineering and wouldn't surprise me at all if the cure for this stuff ended up coming straight out of Helsinki.

Finland is a big, sparsely populated place but then again about 20-25% of the population lives in the capitol metropolitan area of Helsinki-Vantaa-Espoo. They are now talking about locking off the capitol area from the rest of the country because idiots refuse to stop moving around - thousands of cars were seen heading north to Lapland during the weekend even though the entire place only has 3 ambulances. People were still crowding the ski slopes until they forcefully shut them down yesterday.

Most people actually obey the government instructions, but there is always that 1% special snowflakes who think the rules don't apply to them and screw things up for everyone else.


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> Maaaaaybe.... That would be a pretty heavy handed approach.


Right. This would obviously be a last-resort measure. I'm not suggesting that we'll end up that way. It's an option though that could be taken, depending on the situation.


----------



## Michi

Queensland will close its borders midnight on Wednesday. That's going to be a real mess in the Twin Towns area, where quite a lot of people live in one state and work in the other. It'll be interesting to see how they try to deal with this.


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> Keeping these people bottled up and preventing them from crossing state borders (or forcing them into self-isolation for 14 days despite having recovered) would be counter-productive. I would think that we would want those people who've had the infection to go back to work as quickly as possible, otherwise we just make the economic damage even worse.



You have to read the fine-print though  - there are exceptions for essential services. Logistics will not shutdown because of boarder restrictions. Sure... tough luck if you had booked a business meeting with folk in Adelaide for next week... You'll have to video conference. Also remember there are exceptions for people density measures at offices!! Tourism, retail and hospitality are going to get absolutely smashed... but there is nothing stopping the rest of the economy (a very broad stroke) from operating at a reduced efficiency/productivity/capacity.



Michi said:


> I'm not suggesting that any particular path should be taken. It's just that it seems a complex problem to solve. How and at what point do we decide who can and who can't do what again?



Hehe.... No.... I agree... It is _really_ complex to solve. Right now we arent really looking for a solution. We are looking for control and mitigation.

This isnt a solution but...

I imagine lockdown conditions will be set in accordance with community transmission rates.
I imagine travel bans will be set in accordance with international (and interstate) disease prevalence.
This will be a long term process. As confirmed cases rise, lockdown will be come tighter. As cases decline, lockdown will become looser. You may even see the Government pump conditions on/off over one or two seasonal cycles. I expect this process will be driven off aggregate statistics coming from our hospitals. I expect COAG ministers will collectively and individually negotiate a position based on this data. Hopefully they will get better at doing it and better at public communication and messaging.

The thing is... ignoring that vaccine off in the never, never... control/mitigation strategies are now highly likely to remain for a long time. Maybe 18-months?



Michi said:


> Part of getting back to normal will have to be extensive testing, so we can at least know who is/was infected and who isn't. Without this, we can't make a call as to when it is safe to relax restrictions again.



I would certainly love to see extensive testing. We should strive for that. But I also see this as a control/mitigation measure. If we ramp up testing we are better able to identify cases and control the spread. I would also like to see use push numbers down to a point where we can invest a lot of resources in contact tracing. This would help us characterise the local epidemiology of the virus. As you note, the better the information we have on this, the more confidently we can manage restrictions.


----------



## madelinez

I can see a vaccine being announced in the next 6 months, every country is pouring huge amounts of money into it. And I'm sure some countries are bypassing ethical testing restrictions....


----------



## Luftmensch

madelinez said:


> I can see a vaccine being announced in the next 6 months, every country is pouring huge amounts of money into it. And I'm sure some countries are bypassing ethical testing restrictions....



Hope for it but dont expect or prepare for it 

After the research. After passing all the testing and validation. After passing regulatory approval... they still have to spool up manufacturing. Broad-scale community access in 6-months sounds optimistic to me. That said, I can see front line staff getting it sooner than others.

Fingers crossed though! Lets hope I am wrong.


----------



## Michi

madelinez said:


> And I'm sure some countries are bypassing ethical testing restrictions....


I'm afraid that you are right there


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> Right. This would obviously be a last-resort measure. I'm not suggesting that we'll end up that way. It's an option though that could be taken, depending on the situation.



Fear not Michi 

I usually like to leave a little flexibility in my thoughts and language. I'll throw that caution to the wind. I don't think martial law is remotely possible. Unless this ends in invasion or mass civil unrest and riots. Anything less and civil libertarians would rightly be up in arms!

Don't get me wrong... Although unlikely, I can see a COVID-19 world where there is military _call out_. I can even imagine curfew. If this level of intervention is required, I think that the Government will be looking to the police first...


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> I can see a COVID-19 world where there is military _call out_. I can even imagine curfew.


Yes, these are (hopefully unlikely) possibilities. A lot will depend on how well the government manages to support all the people who will face bankruptcy, loss of their home or rented place. Not to mention keeping all the unemployed fed. If they get that right, things will be unpleasant, but remain civilised. If they don't, we'll see the social fabric unravel very quickly.

If it does come to curfew, the military will almost certainly be called out to assist. Simply because we don't have enough policemen to enforce a curfew.


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> If it does come to curfew, the military will almost certainly be called out to assist. Simply because we don't have enough policemen to enforce a curfew.



This is very true... On a more micro-level, I also feel sorry for any police that have to enforce isolation measures. I hope nobody in the country is that unreasonable (wistful thinking).


----------



## podzap

madelinez said:


> I can see a vaccine being announced in the next 6 months, every country is pouring huge amounts of money into it. And I'm sure some countries are bypassing ethical testing restrictions....



Might even be faster than that. The problem with these things is scaling production. A process that works for a small batch might not work at all for large batches...


----------



## Nemo

Kippington said:


> Without the presence of antibodies, wouldn't that mean that the person who tested positive for the virus is still a carrier (given a reasonable time-frame between the two tests)?
> 
> _"Our findings indicate that the MN assay is specific for functional SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and could be applied in surveillance of population immunity for this virus."_
> - *Serological and molecular findings during SARS-CoV-2 infection: The first case study in Finland*​


Probably yes in the short term, unless there are non-antibody methods by which the virus can be cleared, which is possible. The immune system is veeerrrry complex. If anyone tells you that they understand it fully, they are either fibbing or demonstrating the Dunning-Kruger effect. Same goes for the closely related healing and coagulation systems. Let's not even get into human metabolism, which is still mostly a black box that we can just see the borders of.

In the long term, antibodies againt many viruses diminish, even IgG. This seems particualarly true of antibodies against other human coronaviruses (the ones that cause a common cold), which may or may not occur here. For viruses that produce acute conditions, this often does coincide with a dimunition in clinical immunity.

One thing that I have learned to expect in biology and health is that things are usually more complex than we think. And the heuristics that we use to understand these complex processes are often found wanting the more that we look at a topic.

Edited to add: thanks for the reference. It's very interesting and it may provide some preliminary evidence that seroconversion may well be associated with recovery.


----------



## Nemo

Midsummer said:


> Just stopped elective procedures here in Florida.


We have a severe shortage of PPE. Had to go and buy my own today. Masks are ok (for now) but not visors and goggles.

Just learned that the public hospital is only doing urgent elective surgery (cancer and the like).


----------



## Luftmensch

Nemo said:


> We have a severe shortage of PPE. Had to go and buy my own today. Masks are ok (for now) but not visors and goggles.
> 
> Just learned that the public hospital is only doing urgent elective surgery (cancer and the like).



I went to Bunnings on the weekend. I have been watching their respirator inventory out of curiosity. First the paper ones ran out (a couple of weeks ago now). Now the more expensive half-mask respirator stock is getting gobbled up (~$45 with filters)! The other PPE seemed normal (goggles etc)...


----------



## HRC_64

Nemo said:


> We have a severe shortage of PPE. Had to go and buy my own today.



The same is all around the world, there is hospital based PPE inadequeacies in Australia, UK, USA etc...

Why don't the hospitals buy up the retail stocks and give it to the providers? It would seem way more efficient for corporate purchasing agents to do this rather than making all the end users "go shopping" in a pandemic!!

They tried to blame the US n95 shortage on consumers, but the 3m masks for medical use are apparently quite different than what consumers can buy. 

https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/1794572O/surgical-n95-vs-standard-n95-which-to-consider.pdf


----------



## podzap

HRC_64 said:


> The same is all around the world, there is hospital based PPE inadequeacies in Australia, UK, USA etc...
> 
> Why don't the hospitals buy up the retail stocks and give it to the providers? It would seem way more efficient for corporate purchasing agents to do this rather than making all the end users "go shopping" in a pandemic!!
> 
> They tried to blame the US n95 shortage on consumers, but the 3m masks for medical use are apparently quite different than what consumers can buy.
> 
> https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/1794572O/surgical-n95-vs-standard-n95-which-to-consider.pdf



The ones for medical use are quite a bit crappier than the ones consumers can buy. That's because a surgical mask is not a respirator - it's a disposable, flimsy thing that is designed with the main purpose of being able to stop a strong incoming stream of fluid. Respirators you can buy in hardware stores e.g. the ones used by professional spray painters are certified against organic vapor as well as being about 10 times more effective than N95 (over 99.95% efficiency). Problem with them is that you do need to sanitise them between uses with alcohol wipes or something, also understand how to get a proper seal, etc.


----------



## labor of love

Luftmensch said:


> Not so much in this thread... Generally I am sceptical about the supplements industry. There are many scientifically proven cases where supplements benefit the patient. But there is a larger market for 'wellness' supplements. These are often only regulated as food - not medicine. This means claims on the bottle are likely to be stretching the truth... and there is often no independent testing to even certify you are getting the dose advertised on the bottle.
> 
> In my non-medical opinion: unless a doctor has told you to do so, don't bother taking supplements. Want to be prepared for COVID-19? Eat healthy. Sleep healthy. Be healthy.
> 
> What isnt being talked about here is the _other health conditions_. Stay healthy: follow all advice and medication you were given for pre-existing conditions. Don't exaggerate anything you were supposed to be controlling. Also be more risk aware - you want to minimise your chance of physical accidents. As medical resources get diverted to handle COVID-19, the capacity of the system to handle other problems is diminished. Don't land yourself in hospital just because you weren't thinking straight.


Yeah you completely ignored what I asked and started verbally masturbating.


----------



## HRC_64

podzap said:


> The ones for medical use are quite a bit crappier than the ones consumers can buy. That's because a surgical mask is not a respirator - it's a disposable, flimsy thing that is designed with the main purpose of being able to stop a strong incoming stream of fluid.



Please see the link in my post above--and don't repeat this kind of mis-information-- there is a specific SKU/product called surgical respirators (n95). 

https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/1794572O/surgical-n95-vs-standard-n95-which-to-consider.pdf


Why its a "surgical respirator" not a "surgical mask"?

https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media...urgical-masks-contrast-technical-bulletin.pdf

A generic surgical mask has something like 8% environmental leakage to room ari, a medical/surgical grade N95 repsirator <1% (approx 0.5% leakage when tested under similar conditions).

You can find alot more information at the 3m links below:
https://www.3m.com/3M/en_US/worker-...?storyid=8855304f-01cb-4af2-8937-83096cdb4113


----------



## podzap

Man, I have spent time inside of live nerve-agent chambers so you are preaching to the choir. I've also been responsible for training people regarding mask fitting, used face calipers, etc. I wouldn't trust one of those nose-pinch, rubber-band things around my head to keep me safe from SARS-CoV-2 (something that is one thousand times narrower than the width of an eyebrow hair). And the researchers who work in the labs studying it don't either, they wear a bit more serious equipment. Might be a reason why 14 doctors in Italy are dead now. You know, scratch your head and break the rubber band or something! Bump your face and the nose pinch thingy bends. Bye bye.


----------



## panda

this thread is too nerdy for me.


----------



## HRC_64

panda said:


> this thread is too nerdy for me.



Podzap was basically saying "let them eat cake"


----------



## labor of love

HRC_64 said:


> Podzap was basically saying "let them eat cake"


Cake is the last thing we should be eating right now! 
Haha


----------



## Luftmensch

labor of love said:


> Yeah you completely ignored what I asked and started verbally masturbating.



¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Funny... but bad faith. 



labor of love said:


> What are some options for over the counter supplements that can help against corona?



Let me try something that might be more your speed: none, don't bother, save your money. 


If you aren't satisfied with that, @madelinez [#599] gave some advice.


----------



## labor of love

Luftmensch said:


> ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
> 
> Funny... but bad faith.
> 
> 
> 
> Let me try something that might be more your speed: none, don't bother, save your money.
> 
> 
> If you aren't satisfied with that, @madelinez [#599] gave some advice.


Move along. Supplement denial really isn’t much of an answer.
I mean I get it lots of guys are out of work, freaking out and quickly becoming experts on all things science. But if you didn’t have specific recommendations you could’ve not commented.


----------



## Luftmensch

labor of love said:


> But if you didn’t have specific recommendations you could’ve not commented.



I did have a specific recommendation:



Luftmensch said:


> unless a doctor has told you to do so, don't bother taking supplements.



On the other hand, I am aware I did not give you the answer you want. Yet, if you are averse to that, it sounds like you are seeking confirmation bias, not any reasonable opinion made in good faith.

Eat healthy and sleep well - I wish the best health for you!


----------



## labor of love

Luftmensch said:


> it sounds like you are seeking confirmation bias


Jeez. Not at all.


----------



## Luftmensch

labor of love said:


> Jeez. Not at all



I am glad 

FDA:


> But supplements should not replace complete meals which are necessary for a healthful diet – so, be sure you eat a variety of foods as well.
> 
> Unlike drugs, supplements are not permitted to be marketed for the purpose of treating, diagnosing, preventing, or curing diseases. That means supplements should not make disease claims, such as “lowers high cholesterol” or “treats heart disease.” Claims like these cannot be legitimately made for dietary supplements.



NIH:


> Some dietary supplements can help you get adequate amounts of essential nutrients if you don’t eat a nutritious variety of foods. However, supplements can’t take the place of the variety of foods that are important to a healthy diet.



Mayoclinic:


> If you're generally healthy and eat a wide variety of foods, including fruits, vegetables, whole grains, legumes, low-fat dairy products, lean meats and fish, you likely don't need supplements.



NHS:


> Most people do not need to take vitamin supplements and can get all the vitamins and minerals they need by eating a healthy, balanced diet.




Eat healthy! Unless you are anaemic, pregnant, vegan, never see the sun or are old... you are probably doing fine


Save dat money for another knife


----------



## Chuckles

Of course a healthy diet and plenty of sleep are by far the most helpful actions you can take. Any supplement regimen is not a good idea if taken as a replacement for either diet or sleep. That being said I am taking:


Clean, plant forward Ketogenic Diet
Sleep - Shooting for 7 hrs per night

Vitamin C
Vitamin B complex
Vitamin D3
Magnesium
Zinc
Curcumin
Quercetin
Black Cumin Seed Oil
Fish Oil

Also probiotics everyday. Bone broth every day.


----------



## labor of love

Look, I have good reasons to ask the question about supplementation. I do not appreciate my inquiries, concerns and beliefs being mischaracterized. Which is what I suspect when you share links that have zero to do with my motivations.
I am not looking to prevent, cure or diagnose disease with supplements lol.
I’m not looking for confirmation bias.
Supplements do just that, they supplement.
Sure, a well rounded diet is great. How sure are you that most of us will be eating a well rounded diet in the next 2-3 monthes? Fresh dairy, meat, fish, vegetables and fruits ? That might be a pipe dream. Which isn’t to say we won’t have any access to these things, but there could likely be a scarcity of fresh food in general. Perhaps acquiring fresh food isn’t worth the exposure.

I really have no interest in debating the effectiveness of supplements. If you know what you’re doing you can get good results with them. Depending of course on the quality, and all the other things that matter.
If you just don’t think they work that’s fine too.

I’ve used supplements in the past to target health problems and found a great deal of success.


----------



## CiderBear

I'm young, healthy, eat as healthy as I can, and I still have a vitamin D deficiency. I take 5000 IU of Vitamin D a day (doctor's order), as well as a Women's multivitamin, just in case. I've been doing this for years. I don't expect to take more supplements during this crisis, but I'm not going to cut back on anything I'm already taking either.

@labor of love I hope you're hanging in there alright.


----------



## labor of love

I’m employed still. So I’m fortunate. Thanks for asking!


----------



## panda

i'm a smoker and eat horrible and drink too much booze, but ive never taken supplements and dont plan to either any time soon.


----------



## labor of love

panda said:


> i'm a smoker and eat horrible and drink too much booze, but ive never taken supplements and dont plan to either any time soon.


Here lies panda.
He was a good man. 
He was picky in his tastes of stones, only used splash and go.
In his will he left all his knives to his good friend, labor of love.
RIP


----------



## Luftmensch

Labor, you are a funny guy. I generally like your contributions. I am not deliberately trying to be antagonistic. I get the sense you are reading aggression/sarcasm? in my posts. That is not my intention. Apologies if you feel I have attacked you in some way.



labor of love said:


> Look, I have good reasons to ask the question about supplementation.



Maybe so... but it is unfair to ask a specific question:



labor of love said:


> What are some options for over the counter supplements that can help against corona?



and imply you had other good reasons to ask the question. I dont know what your other reasons are?

COVID-19 is new. No studies are likely to have been done on the use of supplements in helping a person prevent infection or reduce severity. Since COVID-19 is a corona virus, it is from the same family as the common cold. It is arguably reasonable to assume that literature relating to supplement use in combating common colds is a good place to start. You could read this article from the NIH - you could consider taking zinc and vitamin-C.




labor of love said:


> Supplements do just that, they supplement.



Again.. that is unfair. You are tacitly agreeing with the whole point of #636 and ignoring what it means to supplement. The general public health advice is: if you are healthy and have a healthy diet, there is _no need to supplement_. If you want a more specific, authoritative answer about your condition - see a doctor 



labor of love said:


> If you just don’t think they work that’s fine too.



I do! But only for specific cases - some rattled off the top of my head in #636.





labor of love said:


> How sure are you that most of us will be eating a well rounded diet in the next 2-3 monthes? Fresh dairy, meat, fish, vegetables and fruits ? That might be a pipe dream. Which isn’t to say we won’t have any access to these things, but there could likely be a scarcity of fresh food in general. Perhaps acquiring fresh food isn’t worth the exposure



Yeah.... great question. Who knows??! I dont...

Given how empty the frozen/TV-dinner section of the local supermarkets have been.... people probably arent eating so well right now. I saw one guy with a trolley full of Pepsi! He must have been pushing around 20-30L.... that don't seem so healthy.... (although maybe pushing it around did him some good ... ok... that was a little mean).

Curiously, i haven't seen vegetable shortages (yes with potatoes and onions). Check out @Bert2368's cool post: #504. Currently I can still bulk buy veggies, batch cook curries/stews/sauces and freeze the stuff! I am too lazy to do all that cooking for the worst case scenario - but I reckon I could get a months supply of healthy food by doing that, though I might have to ration my consumption.

I don't see agriculture and logistics collapsing in _my_ country. In parts of the country, recent rain has broken a decade long drought. The pandemic has crushed our dollar - so we'll have better export terms (good for the farmers). Those cats (at least in grains) are going to be going gang busters this winter! The drought has hurt livestock trade. Many farmers couldnt afford to feed their stock so they had to sell them off. I think this caused a glut a little while ago when it happened. Now that the drought has eased, livestock is under capacity. Panic buying has cleared the shelves.... so I expect meat to be very expensive in the near term. Horticulture.... i can see parts of it suffering from a scarcity of labour (we mostly rely on backpackers and our northern neighbours) - again I can see prices rising.

... in summary, my guess: we will still have a supply of healthy produce but it will be more expensive than we are used to. Not a pleasant thing when people are loosing their jobs


----------



## Nemo

Guys, lets tone it down a bit please.


----------



## Michi

The panic buying is a about to stop, in my opinion. Basically, everyone who felt the need to go and fill their larder will mostly have done so by now. There is only so much food people can reasonably fit into their house or apartment before it inevitably spoils. And for lots of people, the size of their wallet limits the amount of hoarding they can afford.

So now that most people have a full pantry, I expect that the demand will mostly go back to where it was before: a steady trickle of goods that basically keeps up with the rate of consumption.

There have been complaints levelled at retailers here that certain goods have gone up a fair bit in price. The retailers have argued back that the huge demand has put pressure on the supply chain and that they are facing extra costs to try and meet that demand. I don't know who is right or wrong here. It may be a bit of both. But it seems reasonable to assume that the panic buying is more responsible for price increases than unscrupulous retailers are.

At any rate, at least here in Australia, there is absolutely no way that we run the risk of running out of healthy food. We produce more than three times what we can eat. Plenty to go around for everyone, virus or no virus.


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> The panic buying is a about to stop, in my opinion. Basically, everyone who felt the need to go and fill their larder will mostly have done so by now. There is only so much food people can reasonably fit into their house or apartment before it inevitably spoils.



Ssshhhhhh... they'll start panic buying fridges


----------



## chinacats

Interesting aside: over half of cruise patrons that tested positive were asymptomatic. Between that and some folks wanting to re-open things this is gonna' get ugly quick.


----------



## bahamaroot

Argue all you want, nobody really knows but we're all going to find out soon enough... Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.


----------



## podzap

HRC_64 said:


> Podzap was basically saying "let them eat cake"



Not really, man. Doctors are damned well educated enough to know what kind of breathing protection is sufficient and what is not. Also, most of them earn a whole hell of a lot more money than cooks do. If cooks can manage to find the money for a 500 dollar knife (supposedly a critical tool for their job), then a doctor should certainly be able to find the money for a 100 dollar breathing filter with a sufficient level of protection to save their life.

Take this lady, for example: a doctor specialising in infectious diseases for over 18 years. Look what she's wearing!


----------



## podzap

Luftmensch said:


> Ssshhhhhh... they'll start panic buying fridges



They have fridges and freezers on sale here now - 40% off, free delivery and 3 months no payments. No kidding.


----------



## Michi

I found this quite beautiful and inspirational:


----------



## Luftmensch

HRC_64 said:


> Podzap was basically saying "let them eat cake"



I dont think that is a fair characterisation. Also oddly... I think you guys are on the same page!



podzap said:


> The ones for medical use are quite a bit crappier than the ones consumers can buy.



I think this is generally true. It depends how you define "crappy". @HRC_64, nobody is saying they arent fit for purpose. They are... but they arent at all durable - they are designed to be cheap enough for single use infection control. I don't think the public get this. Im 100% certain that the people (general public) I see wearing surgical masks are reusing them.

Even though surgical respirators offer good particulate protection, as @podzap pointed out:



podzap said:


> Respirators you can buy in hardware stores e.g. the ones used by professional spray painters are certified against organic vapor as well as being about 10 times more effective than N95 (over 99.95% efficiency).



Surgeons do not need protection against pesticides and fumes! Consequently their masks don't need to be rated for it. Unless you are doing exotic medicine, the atmosphere in the average medical setting is less hazardous than the atmosphere of routine construction/maintenance environments. Look to those areas of employment for escalating grades of PPE.

All said... it would make a WHOLE load more sense for john-citizen to buy the $50, reusable (rubber) painter half-mask respirator. You can at least sterilise the thing after each use.




HRC_64 said:


> Why don't the hospitals buy up the retail stocks and give it to the providers? It would seem way more efficient for corporate purchasing agents to do this rather than making all the end users "go shopping" in a pandemic!!



That would be nice... even nicer... why don't the hardware stores keep 20% of their stock for registered builders/tradesfolk and offer the remaining 80% to healthcare (or whatever mix makes sense)? It would be a good community gesture...


----------



## Luftmensch

podzap said:


> Take this lady, for example: a doctor specialising in infectious diseases for over 18 years. Look what she's wearing!



Looks like she was wearing a scrub hat or visor of some sort too!


----------



## Luftmensch

Oz update:

"do not travel" warning to turn into a "travel ban" (Australians going overseas)!!
Weddings restricted to 5 people
Funerals restricted to 10 people
Open houses and auctions banned

and the Olympics are postponed until 2021 - this was inevitable.


----------



## Chuckles

I didn’t realize taking vitamins was a such radical move these days. I thought I would add that if anybody is interested in potential supplements for immune system optimization I heard a good podcast on the issue recently. The Ben Greenfield fitness podcast from March 14 titled ‘Everything you need to know about antivirus & immune system enhancement’ .


----------



## podzap

Michi said:


> The panic buying is a about to stop, in my opinion. Basically, everyone who felt the need to go and fill their larder will mostly have done so by now. There is only so much food people can reasonably fit into their house or apartment before it inevitably spoils. And for lots of people, the size of their wallet limits the amount of hoarding they can afford



I suspect one of the things that has happened is that a lot of folks (who get paid once a month on the end of the month) ran out of cash by mid-month due to buying all they could at once instead of spreading it out. If that's true, we will see another huge surge in hamstering come 7 days from now. Most of the stuff people are hamstering: TP, canned tuna, macaroni, rice, tomato sauce and the tex-mex ingredient sections have been hit particularly hard as well, for some reason. Have a taco!


----------



## Bert2368

I buy TP about once a year, in bulk. There were 2.5 deer in the freezers at our warehouse along with plenty of other stuff when people started to panic. Why would anyone buy rice & beans in less than 20 lb. sacks, you know you'll use it before it goes bad?

Not a prepper! I just really like to eat and buy everything in bulk and as infrequently as possible to save time & money.

A whole bunch of us are learning that news isn't something that happens to other people. Only a small % of the ones I can personally see are completely freaking out. Your results may vary-










The screen shots attached are of the Johns Hopkins coronavirus data page, yesterday and today, close enough to 24 hours apart. The 24 hour fatalities 23rd to 24th (1,901) are pretty much on track with below linked video, considering fatality data are being under reported deliberately in several countries to lower panic with people who die at home often left out, anyone with a co morbid condition excluded, etc.

6 minute YouTube video of statistics with graphing to give perspective on Covid 19 vs. H1N1 (swine flu) and all other pandemics this century- Watch the whole thing, pause it to read if you need to. Will probably scare the hell out of you.



The good news is that this rate of daily increase can't possibly continue past June 19th- Bad news, that's because total death would exceed total population of the planet on that day if it did.






-------

Just in case you have not already found the below? Some links. Johns Hopkins statistics: Best aggregator of CDC and WHO information I have found. Updated several times a day.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Dr. John Campbell: (daily video updates) PhD in education, had been the English version of a nurse practitioner for decades, moved on to do teaching world wide. Accurate and direct, non medical people can understand the concepts he explains. Plus, english accent... Which for some reason Americans think automatically makes you an authority?



MedCram: (daily videos) YouTube channel by a group of ER doctors to make "cram notes" videos for other providers. Free for the duration, used to be a paid service. Gets into some chemistry, more technical.

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLQ_IRFkDInv_zLVFTgXA8tW0Mf1iiuuM_

-------

See you on the other side-


----------



## ChefShramrock

Not to make light of the situation at hand, but this email I received actually made me laugh out loud. Terrible marketing at its finest.


----------



## podzap

Anybody else notice how all these sales only last until the 30th of this month (31st is payday for many folks)? Prices will be normal until the 10th or so then again it will be going until 29th of April. It's always been the same at my local meat counter - meat prices double on payday and then drop down again around the 10th of the month.


----------



## ian

ChefShramrock said:


> Not to make light of the situation at hand, but this email I received actually made me laugh out loud. Terrible marketing at its finest.
> View attachment 74800



That’s so great. So, if I take it to a contaminated area, I can fight off the coronavirus kung-fu style, right?


----------



## CiderBear

Bert2368 said:


> I buy TP about once a year, in bulk. There were 2.5 deer in the freezers at our warehouse along with plenty of other stuff when people started to panic. Why would anyone buy rice & beans in less than 20 lb. sacks, you know you'll use it before it goes bad?



I didn't think this needed to be said, but there it is: some people live in a tiny apartment in the city. These people don't have a garage to store non-perishables like giant bags of rice and beans, and they sure do not have space for 2 chest freezers to store the entire cow they buy once a year.


----------



## labor of love

Arguably the nerdiest thread in kkf history. And that’s really saying something.


----------



## ian

We thought about buying a chest freezer in anticipation of a recent delivery of $200 worth of meat from a local farm, but then we remembered that $200 worth of meat from a local farm is like 5 cuts... also, the freezer would have had to go in our living room as an additional coffee table.


----------



## panda

i suspect many kkfers have already lived their whole lives in isolation so this doesnt really affect them so it would be way out of their scope to realize how much of a life change this is for the rest of us who live in the real world.


----------



## Bert2368

Thinking hard about how you COULD deal with even a partial breakdown of "just in time" supply, living in an ordinary apartment in typical city with minimal storage for more than a week or two worth of food.

I've been in Chinese cities, typical apartments in China don't have any more space. (I saw free ranging chickens in the yards of multi 10 story apartment building developments & people growing food on seasonaly exposed sandbars in the Liuyang river, but this couldn't be more than supplemental) How have the Chinese in lockdown managed the last couple of months?


----------



## labor of love

panda said:


> i suspect many kkfers have already lived their whole lives in isolation so this doesnt really affect them so it would be way out of their scope to realize how much of a life change this is for the rest of us who live in the real world.


I do really miss the gym. Bout to figure out this yoga thing.


----------



## podzap

panda said:


> i suspect many kkfers have already lived their whole lives in isolation so this doesnt really affect them so it would be way out of their scope to realize how much of a life change this is for the rest of us who live in the real world.



I'm quite heavily introverted myself, but I have never lived in isolation. It does affect the balance of things.


----------



## labor of love

Seems like now would be a great time to adopt a pet. If isolation is stressful.


----------



## Michi

ChefShramrock said:


> Not to make light of the situation at hand, but this email I received actually made me laugh out loud. Terrible marketing at its finest.


The anti-bacterial effect is very important when combatting a viral disease…


----------



## CiderBear

Bert2368 said:


> Thinking hard about how you COULD deal with even a partial breakdown of "just in time" supply, living in an ordinary apartment in typical city with minimal storage for more than a week or two worth of food.
> 
> I've been in Chinese cities, typical apartments in China don't have any more space. (I saw free ranging chickens in the yards of multi 10 story apartment building developments & people growing food on seasonaly exposed sandbars in the Liuyang river, but this couldn't be more than supplemental) How have the Chinese in lockdown managed the last couple of months?



According to my Chinese coworkers: deliveries.


----------



## podzap

Taxi business has crashed here, so they have went into cahoots with the local grocery stores to start doing home deliveries.


----------



## WildBoar

labor of love said:


> I do really miss the gym. Bout to figure out this yoga thing.


If you are interested, PM me an I will send you a link to classes my wife is now teaching online. She is doing them for free through the end of the month.


----------



## Johnny.B.Good

podzap said:


> Taxi business has crashed here, so they have went into cahoots with the local grocery stores to start doing home deliveries.



There are many grocery delivery companies here in the United States. One of them ("Instacart") is apparently planning on hiring hundreds of thousands of drivers to meet the increasing demand for their services. 

I have never used such a service before because I don't mind grocery shopping and would prefer to choose my own fruits and vegetables, but I broke down and placed an order through them this morning. Apparently these companies will usually deliver in a matter of hours, but the earliest option I could choose is this coming Friday night between 7:00-9:00pm! 

It has been eight days since I was last out in public, and I'd rather postpone it a few more weeks if possible. Only now do I feel pretty confident that symptoms aren't just going to suddenly begin, so the idea of resetting that clock in my mind doesn't appeal.


----------



## labor of love

Johnny I’m actually running the essential errands now, I figure it’s best to get out and do the things necessary now instead of in a month or 2. Would really like to spend the next couple of month's only at work or home.


----------



## lowercasebill

i
Neighbors placed instacart Tues pick up Sun at 4 pm. No record of order..
Amazon prime whole foods ??


----------



## Michi

One good thing coming out of this is that, with everyone bottled up, a lot more people will take an interest in cooking. (TV meals sort of get boring after a few weeks…)

We might end up with the world's average culinary skills lifted by 10 or 20 percent


----------



## bkultra

panda said:


> i suspect many kkfers have already lived their whole lives in isolation so this doesnt really affect them so it would be way out of their scope to realize how much of a life change this is for the rest of us who live in the real world.



This applies to myself


----------



## CiderBear

lowercasebill said:


> i
> Neighbors placed instacart Tues pick up Sun at 4 pm. No record of order..
> Amazon prime whole foods ??


It's been very difficult finding a time slot for Prime Now WF delivery, unfortunately. Stuff you add to the cart would go out of stock and get automatically removed from the cart (they get restocked everyday-ish though), then when you actually find a time slot (only today or tomorrow), exit out to add the things that got removed from your cart back, go to schedule delivery.... and no more time slot available.


----------



## labor of love

WildBoar said:


> If you are interested, PM me an I will send you a link to classes my wife is now teaching online. She is doing them for free through the end of the month.


Hey man, I appreciate that. But I’m a stubborn sort of person. I genuinely enjoy throwing away the instructional manuals. I’ll just roll around on my mat for a week or two until things start to make sense.


----------



## labor of love

bkultra said:


> This applies to myself
> 
> View attachment 74848


This,
Except no more Starbucks or gym.


----------



## Ryndunk

CiderBear said:


> It's been very difficult finding a time slot for Prime Now WF delivery, unfortunately. Stuff you add to the cart would go out of stock and get automatically removed from the cart (they get restocked everyday-ish though), then when you actually find a time slot (only today or tomorrow), exit out to add the things that got removed from your cart back, go to schedule delivery.... and no more time slot available.


This same thing was happening to us the other day.


----------



## labor of love

I just looked into the WF delivery, unavailable in my area code. Sucks.


----------



## panda

labor of love said:


> Hey man, I appreciate that. But I’m a stubborn sort of person. I genuinely enjoy throwing away the instructional manuals. I’ll just roll around on my mat for a week or two until things start to make sense.


Acting more panda-ish than panda..


----------



## CiderBear

labor of love said:


> Hey man, I appreciate that. But I’m a stubborn sort of person. I genuinely enjoy throwing away the instructional manuals. I’ll just roll around on my mat for a week or two until things start to make sense.



I'm the same way. I can't do workout classes for the life of me (I ****ing hate it when people tell me to holdddddd you can do eeeet), and I can't stand pre-recorded workout videos with smiley sweaty people either. 

My workout routine used to be 75 minutes of swimming on Tuesday and Thursday, and 90 minutes of gym (45 weight and 45 rowing) on MWF.

The gym at work (and work itself) and the public swimming pool has been closed, so I've been playing Ring Fit Adventure. It's surprisingly not bad. Instead of being annoyed at somebody telling me to go lower and hold my squats/ crunches, I do it myself to kill monsters.


----------



## daveb

That's a long way of saying you're stir crazy....


----------



## labor of love

5 weeks into self isolation and I’ll start live streaming my yoga sessions. YOLO baby


----------



## Nemo

chinacats said:


> Interesting aside: over half of cruise patrons that tested positive were asymptomatic.


This is not an aside, it is the main game.

The reason that this virus is so difficult to control is that asymptomatic people can pass it on. You don't know who is infectious unless you test almost everybody. And this virus is very contagious. This would not in itself be a problem (just like other human coronaviruses which cause the common cold are not a problem) except for the fact that about 20% get really crook (need oxygen hospital), 5% need ventilation or even more invasive ICU treatment and around 0.5 to 1% die, even with best management (which won't be possible at the peak of infection, so the death rate will be much higher, around 5% or more). It may be that there is a large reservior of asymptomatic people which would mean that the mortality and hospitalisation rates are somewhat lower. The downside if this is true is that it's even harder to control and the hospialisation and mortality rates are still completely unacceptable.


----------



## madelinez

Nemo said:


> This is not an aside, it is the main game.
> 
> The reason that this virus is so difficult to control is that asymptomatic people can pass it on. You don't know who is infectious unless you test almost everybody. And this virus is very contagious. This would not in itself be a problem (just like other human coronaviruses which cause the common cold are not a problem) except for the fact that about 20% get really crook (need oxygen hospital), 5% need ventilation or even more invasive ICU treatment and around 0.5 to 1% die, even with best management (which won't be possible at the peak of infection, so the death rate will be much higher, around 5% or more). It may be that there is a large reservior of asymptomatic people which would mean that the mortality and hospitalisation rates are somewhat lower. The downside if this is true is that it's even harder to control and the hospialisation and mortality rates are still completely unacceptable.



Silver lining of this is that herd immunity will develop faster I guess.


----------



## HRC_64

Nemo said:


> The reason that this virus is so difficult to control is that asymptomatic people can pass it on. You don't know who is infectious unless you test almost everybody.



This is where the PPE shortage comes in...


----------



## podzap

Nemo said:


> This is not an aside, it is the main game.
> 
> The reason that this virus is so difficult to control is that asymptomatic people can pass it on. You don't know who is infectious unless you test almost everybody. And this virus is very contagious. This would not in itself be a problem (just like other human coronaviruses which cause the common cold are not a problem) except for the fact that about 20% get really crook (need oxygen hospital), 5% need ventilation or even more invasive ICU treatment and around 0.5 to 1% die, even with best management (which won't be possible at the peak of infection, so the death rate will be much higher, around 5% or more). It may be that there is a large reservior of asymptomatic people which would mean that the mortality and hospitalisation rates are somewhat lower. The downside if this is true is that it's even harder to control and the hospialisation and mortality rates are still completely unacceptable.



This virus is still a bit immature in that regard, needs to evolve a bit more. I mean that a virus doesn't really want to kill it's hosts. It really wants it's hosts to spread as much as possible. This R0=2.x is a bit weak - if I were a virus and optimised my game, it would be more like R0=28.


----------



## Nemo

HRC_64 said:


> This is where the PPE shortage comes in...



Tell me about it.


----------



## Nemo

podzap said:


> This virus is still a bit immature in that regard, needs to evolve a bit more. I mean that a virus doesn't really want to kill it's hosts. It really wants it's hosts to spread as much as possible. This R0=2.x is a bit weak - if I were a virus and optimised my game, it would be more like R0=28.



The problem for the virus then is that it will quickly spread through all suscebtible people, either inciting an immune respense (and probably immunity) or killing them. Then it will have no new hosts available.


----------



## Kippington

Nemo said:


> Tell me about it.


Mostly directed to Nemo specifically...
https://imgur.com/gallery/6SzVjHY


----------



## Kippington

podzap said:


> ...I mean that a virus doesn't really want to kill it's hosts. It really wants it's hosts to spread as much as possible... if I were a virus and optimised my game, it would be more like R0=28


Be careful: Avoid anthropomorphic analyses.

_*"Don't ascribe human actions to a virus (e.g, a virus thinks it can do this, or a virus is trying to infect the host, or trying to evolve) because that contaminates the way you look at the problem. You're going to ascribe your own motives and feelings to a virus which is totally incorrect, because they're not human obviously. They're actually passive entities - everything happens passively: lots of chemical reactions, natural selection and evolution - but they do not achieve their goals in a human centred manner. They're passive agents." (Source)
*_​_ - _*Vincent R. Racaniello*, Professor in the Department of Microbiology and Immunology at Columbia University’s College of Physicians and Surgeons


----------



## Michi

podzap said:


> This virus is still a bit immature in that regard, needs to evolve a bit more. I mean that a virus doesn't really want to kill it's hosts.


Right. Evolutionary pressure is on the virus to not kill its hosts and evolutionary pressure is on the hosts to not die. (Unfortunately, the virus has the edge here, seeing that its reproductive cycle is many orders of magnitude shorter than that of humans.) We can hope that the virus becomes less deadly, but not that humans become more immune on a timescale we care about.

We can see this mechanism on a human timescale with mixomatosis. Mortality rate drops off sharply with each generation of rabbits, and the way to stay ahead is to keep breeding new mutations of the virus. It's an arms race that, eventually, both sides will win. The virus becomes endemic, and the rabbits breed forever thereafter because they are effectively immune (as a population).


----------



## Michi

Michi said:


> evolutionary pressure is on the hosts to not die


More accurately: evolutionary pressure is on the hosts to not die before they can reproduce and manage to keep offspring alive long enough for the offspring to not die before they can reproduce.


----------



## Nemo

Kippington said:


> Mostly directed to Nemo specifically...
> https://imgur.com/gallery/6SzVjHY


Yep, we've made up a few (I believe a couple of dozen) of these just in case.


----------



## Luftmensch

Nemo said:


> Yep, we've made up a few (I believe a couple of dozen) of these just in case.



Shiiiit... Did you loot the local Bunnings? When I messaged previously, there were quite a few half-mask respirators


----------



## Luftmensch

@Michi, @Kippington, @podzap .... checkout optimal virulence


----------



## podzap

Luftmensch said:


> @Michi, @Kippington, @podzap .... checkout optimal virulence



Fascinating reading. Especially the short-sighted evolution hypothesis: "But as long as transmission continues despite the virulence, virulent pathogens will have the advantage.".

Thanks!


----------



## Kippington

Luftmensch said:


> Shiiiit... Did you loot the local Bunnings? When I messaged previously, there were quite a few half-mask respirators


I use the one you're talking about for knife-making, the green one from Bunnings.





It's got a terrible seal around my face - after grinding for an hour I will still get loads of iron filings when I blow my nose. Wouldn't trust it for something serious.

For a while now I've wanted to get a really good one - a positive pressure PAPR (powered air purifying respirator), but they _cost so much... 



_


----------



## Nemo

Luftmensch said:


> Shiiiit... Did you loot the local Bunnings? When I messaged previously, there were quite a few half-mask respirators



60 buck s a pop and no replacement filters in stock at our Bunnings.


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> @Michi, @Kippington, @podzap .... checkout optimal virulence


Thanks for that. Things have a moved on a little since I studied genetics at uni  That's interesting information!


----------



## Dhoff

In Denmark they have now stated no more than 2 persons should be meeting at any point except for families living together. I receive food and mail by waving to the deliverer through the glass pane of the door and waiting until he is away. All according to procedure.

People seem scared when you go for a walk and most keep their distance though some idiots are present. Hoping evolutionary pressure will take care of them.


----------



## podzap

Kippington said:


> I use the one you're talking about for knife-making, the green one from Bunnings.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It's got a terrible seal around my face - after grinding for an hour I will still get loads of iron filings when I blow my nose. Wouldn't trust it for something serious.



You can get a bad seal for the following reasons:

1. mask either too small or too large (they come in sizes)
2. mask either adjusted too tight or too lose (hint: tight is not better as it can distort the mask shape)
3. facial hair is not compatible in any way with a face mask - shave the beard 
4. simply not putting it on properly - chin first, then nose - not nose first, then chin

Knowing how to check the seal before going into a contaminated environment is key. Normally, you would put your hands over the intake filters and inhale strongly to see if you get a vacuum. If you don't get a vacuum, then check items 1-4 above.

I use this one - 3m 6200 with organic vapour filter and then P3 filter (the white part) on top of the vapour filter. It's difficult to check the seal on this mask unless you take the filters off, but anyway I trust it and like I mentioned in another thread I've worked inside live nerve agent chambers before (not with this mask, mind you, but this one is good enough to almost entirely prevent corona inhalation).


----------



## lowercasebill

If you can sew make your own i did a little (and i mean a little) research yesterday seems 2 layers of tee shirt fabric is effective. 
Further research needed
Be safe


----------



## podzap

lowercasebill said:


> If you can sew make your own i did a little (and i mean a little) research yesterday seems 2 layers of tee shirt fabric is effective.
> Further research needed
> Be safe



That would be about 30-50% effective. You takes your own chances...


----------



## lowercasebill

Thanks. I am staying in. I do have masks left over from my office and have n-95s i bought a while back. It's really ramping up here. First case 3-6- 2020. 240 yesterday total 851. I won't go out until i run out of food.


----------



## Luftmensch

Kippington said:


> It's got a terrible seal around my face - after grinding for an hour I will still get loads of iron filings when I blow my nose. Wouldn't trust it for something serious.



Yeah... 

I have the same experience.... It wasn't designed for my face (I tried two sizes)! I have a longish face and a narrowish nose (i think). The pocket between my cheek and nose doesnt make the best seal with this mask. I need to apply so much pressure on the straps that it is quite uncomfortable. Add to that, my safety goggles never fit over the nose bridge of the respirator (and often fogged up).

I got frustrated at the end of last year and purchased one of the full face masks:







Back then Bunnings seemed to be cheaper than any other local retailer - not sure if this is still true. The surface that forms a seal is less complex - so I can get a better fit with less pressure. So far so good! I'd happily recommend it to a dilettante... but maybe you should keep saving for the higher end stuff?




podzap said:


> facial hair is not compatible in any way with a face mask - shave the beard



.....

Oh the shame! This is one reason I changed to the full-face respirator.... 6570 days scruffy! I am not about to shave just so I can tinker in the shed. I know if I were doing serious work, I wouldnt be let on the work site.


----------



## Luftmensch

Nemo said:


> no replacement filters in stock at our Bunnings.



Gahhh... 3M _has_ to be out-performing the market at the moment...


----------



## labor of love

Watanabe sends out those cool bandanas w knife purchases. Wearing one just for the style points.


----------



## podzap

Luftmensch said:


> Gahhh... 3M _has_ to be out-performing the market at the moment...



Still, their shares are on a tumble, even now.


----------



## WildBoar

3M makes a boatload of products, so having a big bump up in masks is likely just a blip on their radar.


----------



## HRC_64

lowercasebill said:


> If you can sew make your own i did a little (and i mean a little) research yesterday seems 2 layers of tee shirt fabric is effective.



I was curious about this too, but the "t-shirt" material designs will hold HEPA material (from vacuum cleaner filters) that is a ~99% particulate filter. 

https://www.kitchenknifeforums.com/...tarted-manufacturing-masks-in-24-hours.46213/

If anyone is interested, there is a writeup on the link posted in another thread


----------



## Luftmensch

Queensland boarder closed last night... we won't be able to even do the domestic part of the @Michi pass around


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> Queensland boarder closed last night... we won't be able to even do the domestic part of the @Michi pass around


Just plug all of the air holes. No risk of community infection that way…


----------



## VICTOR J CREAZZI

Luftmensch said:


> Queensland boarder closed last night... we won't be able to even do the domestic part of the @Michi pass around


So is the mail service shut down too? Not being sarcastic, I really want to understand.


----------



## Michi

VICTOR J CREAZZI said:


> So is the mail service shut down too? Not being sarcastic, I really want to understand.


No, mail and goods transport and the like is happening as usual. There might be delays, but it's all happening.

It's about reducing movement of people, not goods.


----------



## ian

VICTOR J CREAZZI said:


> So is the mail service shut down too? Not being sarcastic, I really want to understand.



@Luftmensch was talking about an actual passaround of @Michi, not of one of Michi's knives.


----------



## CiderBear

Local distilleries in the DC area are ramping up effort to produce handsanitizers. Hopefully it'll help with the shortage


----------



## WildBoar

It will help a little locally. They have to figure out a way to distribute. Hopefully they give the are hospitals first crack.

I was on one of the web sites the other day planning an order for a few different amaros. The next day I saw the announcement. Guessing amaros will need to wait a month or two (we are willing to take one for the Team, and do without for a while)


----------



## CiderBear

WildBoar said:


> It will help a little locally. They have to figure out a way to distribute. Hopefully they give the are hospitals first crack.
> 
> I was on one of the web sites the other day planning an order for a few different amaros. The next day I saw the announcement. Guessing amaros will need to wait a month or two (we are willing to take one for the Team, and do without for a while)


Ace Beverage is my neighborhood liquor store. I was chatting to the owner the other day and he told me that Republic Restoratives and One Eighth were making handsanitizer. They got a couple bottle from RR for personal use, but he was waiting to see if there would be enough for retail.


----------



## ModRQC

McMan said:


> Sure, I'll trust you, an anonymous participant on a forum about kitchen knives, as opposed to people that have devoted lives and careers to studying epidemiology and medicine. Makes perfect sense.



Think the point was more : trust your better judgment.

Otherwise articulated : what do we know about COVID-19 ?

Sure, it seems there's a lot of stuff we know. Mostly statistics (those still not the true picture depending on Suspected/Confirmed case, who does what testings and how they report exactly), symptoms (which are obvious for one thing, and more or less generic also of other dangerous Coronaviruses we know, SARS and MERS, as well as hundred other viruses), the guidelines of what to do and what to avoid (purely textbook contamination control, there's nothing remotely hard to figure out for oneself there); and then all the craziness that follows is directing an awful lot of what I call filling data in every direction you look at, and more dangerous still, conflicting data, when not purely disingenuous or self-profiting.

Of course, if you search, and do it well, you'll find some raw data that's genuine; most of it at levels that most MDs cannot operate; some of it at levels where you cannot verify or do a single thing about it. And where does one of your beloved authorities rise to stop this nonsense, and when he/she/it does, be truly heard? Apart from telling you to stay home, and that NO, you shouldn't think a paint mask will protect you, and NO you shouldn't be worried about a sneeze and crowd hospitals for no good reason.

One really good reason there's not much potent data about COVID-19 is that, outside of all being in containment/reaction mode, stats, and what we know from previous outbreaks, there's nothing much to be known yet. 

Soooooo... yes, on one hand, I will not listen to some stupid anchorman telling me I should go off hoard all available necessities... and yes, on the other hand, I will not take seriously a supposed medical authority that says there's nothing to it but hype. I'll just devised what's best to do under the circumstances I'm presented for myself.

And you're free to verify anything I said about this from the onset, and tell me I was way off marks. Didn't do it to show off knowledge I cannot backup with any authority whatsoever, but because I cared that some KKF members were a bit panicked or clinging to useless modern talismans like masks as if they would save their life - not seeing the importance of the other extreme - who said one was doomed WITHOUT one - or doomed at all - if one uses basic facts and common sense?


----------



## Dave Martell

Dr in NYC (Queens) tells/shows what's going on there...

https://www.nytimes.com/video/nyregion/100000007052136/coronavirus-elmhurst-hospital-queens.html


----------



## Chuckles

That is not very encouraging.


----------



## birdsfan

HRC_64 said:


> I was curious about this too, but the "t-shirt" material designs will hold HEPA material (from vacuum cleaner filters) that is a ~99% particulate filter.
> 
> Thank you for this HRC_64! My daughter had just sent me a blurb that JoAnne fabrics was giving away patterns and materials to make masks. I had advised her that, based on the described design, they didn't sound like they would offer much protection. Your link, on the otherhand, might really provide some advantage. She works in a customer contact job that has been deemed essential. Going to try to make one of these for her today. I can't sew a stitch, but I have plenty of time to practice now.


----------



## Bladerunner

. This is a must-view video on how to handle your groceries, packaging, and food take-out!


----------



## ian

Bladerunner said:


> . This is a must-view video on how to handle your groceries, packaging, and food take-out!




I’m on the fence about how anal to be when I bring in mail or groceries. My default is to be pretty sterile, but I keep hearing about how there’s no evidence that the virus is really spread from surfaces, so I’m not sure what to think. Then again, maybe “there’s no evidence” makes sense, because how would you collect that kind of evidence? It’s easier to prove that someone had contact with an infected person than to prove that they didn’t have contact with an infected person, and therefore they must have gotten the virus from a surface or something. 

In the meantime, I’m pretty careful to throw away any wrapping immediately, wipe things down with a disinfecting wipe when possible, and practice sterile hand management.


----------



## Bladerunner

According to this video, there is now evidence that the (COVID19) virus may still viable after 17 days on cruise ships...


----------



## Kippington

Bladerunner said:


> According to this video, there is now evidence that the (COVID19) virus may still viable after 17 days on cruise ships...


_Corrections & clarifications: The Centers for Disease Control found that novel coronavirus RNA (the genetic material), not the coronavirus itself, was identified on surfaces in Diamond Princess cruise ship cabins up to 17 days after cabins were vacated. (source)_

The media has gotta be _really _careful about the way they word things.
You know how your DNA can be found in a location you've been to, even if you're not there anymore? The CDC reported finding the DNA equivalent (RNA) for SARS-CoV-2 in cruse ship cabins 17 days after being vacated. It's worth noting that they never reported finding the virus itself after 17 days.


----------



## CiderBear

I didn't need another reason to love Nando's, but they're doing right by their staff in the DMV area 

https://wtop.com/business-finance/2...-for-free-keeps-all-employees-on-the-payroll/


----------



## ian

Kippington said:


> _Corrections & clarifications: The Centers for Disease Control found that novel coronavirus RNA (the genetic material), not the coronavirus itself, was identified on surfaces in Diamond Princess cruise ship cabins up to 17 days after cabins were vacated. (source)_
> 
> The media has _really_ gotta be careful about the way they word things.
> You know how your DNA can be found in a location you've been to, even if you're not there anymore? They reported finding the DNA equivalent for SARS-CoV-2 in cruse ship cabins 17 days after being vacated. It's worth noting that they never reported finding the virus itself after 17 days.



I crown you debunker in chief, given your recent streak. (If someone debunks you, though, they will be debunker in chief.)

The video also makes a point of saying that Italy’s highest death toll came 10 days after they enforced the quarantine, as if this indicates that people were still going out or getting infected by groceries or something, without mentioning that it takes a while for someone to die after being infected. I can’t remember the exact stats, but if the most people were infected on the day before the quarantine, it would not be surprising if the most deaths happened around 10 days later.


----------



## Michi

ian said:


> The video also makes a point of saying that Italy’s highest death toll came 10 days after they enforced the quarantine, as if this indicates that people were still going out or getting infected by groceries or something, without mentioning that it takes a while for someone to die after being infected.


Exactly. Any measure we take now to reduce infections does not show its effects for about two weeks. There is a 5-7 day incubation period, and then it takes a few more days for people to develop symptoms that are serious enough to be noticed.

It's what makes this thing so hideous: the numbers we see today reflect the situation as it was two weeks in the past


----------



## Kippington

_"The deaths we see today take *20 days* or so from when you *develop symptoms* to when they die. So the deaths we see today correspond to the epidemic 20 days ago."_ (source)

As Michi notes - This doesn't include the incubation period (the time from infection to appearance of symptoms).


ian said:


> I crown you debunker in chief, given your recent streak.


I just like accurate information. 
There's a healthy amount of fear we should all have for this pandemic. Misinformation can increase that fear to unreasonable levels (or decrease it to dangerous levels).


----------



## bahamaroot




----------



## Kippington

Every so often I wonder: Imagine where we'd be today if China hadn't acted quickly to cancel this years Lunar New Year celebrations, the world's largest annual human migration...


----------



## Luftmensch

Kippington said:


> The media has gotta be _really _careful about the way they word things.
> You know how your DNA can be found in a location you've been to, even if you're not there anymore? The CDC reported finding the DNA equivalent (RNA) for SARS-CoV-2 in cruse ship cabins 17 days after being vacated. It's worth noting that they never reported finding the virus itself after 17 days.



+100

I have been saying this to everyone who freaks out at the whispers about how long it lasts on surfaces - this misunderstanding has been going around since the beginning. The presence of RNA doth not necessarily an active viron make...


----------



## Luftmensch

Also early props to @Xenif [#306]


----------



## Kippington

Luftmensch said:


> The presence of RNA doth not necessarily an active viron make...



It's actually a really neat testament to how well the science has advanced recently. A hundred years ago during the Spanish flu pandemic they had no idea if it was even a virus. Today we can see the evidence a virus leaves behind, even after it's gone - which I imagine can't be an easy thing to achieve. Very cool 

_*"*I cant help thinking... how much our understanding of virus infections has changed over the years. Back in the day when we could isolate some in cell culture, we could do some serology... and now we can do respiratory panels and find nucleic acids - how it's just changing our view. There's one thing that I have been working with is that with an acute virus - *the RNA may persist for months, even after the virus is gone."*_ (source)​
_- _*Vincent R. Racaniello*, Professor in the Department of Microbiology and Immunology at Columbia University’s College of Physicians and Surgeons


----------



## Nemo

Dave Martell said:


> Dr in NYC (Queens) tells/shows what's going on there...
> 
> https://www.nytimes.com/video/nyregion/100000007052136/coronavirus-elmhurst-hospital-queens.html


Pretty scary. I'm not looking forward to what's comic our way.


----------



## lowercasebill

Some random thoughts.
Here in USA source of infection for the great majority of cases is unknown. It is not unreasonable to assume many of them were acquired by touching something. Granted aerosols are the most effective route but not the only. I have sleep apnea and a cpap machine. Cpap company has big push on ozone generator for disinfecting. They say ozone kills COVID in 30 seconds. I bought an ozone generator years ago never really used it. Now nothing comes in the house untreated and i use it in the bathroom once per day. It is a PIA and stinks but...... I saw a decent one online for $129
Be safe


----------



## Michi

lowercasebill said:


> It is not unreasonable to assume many of them were acquired by touching something.


Maybe so, maybe not. In the absence of evidence, we simply do not know.

For what it’s worth, Australian data indicates that the majority of infections happen when people are in close physical proximity. At this point, there is no evidence to suggest that we are getting new infections because an infected person touched something and someone else picked it up because they came by and touched the same object later. It seems more likely that the infection spreads mostly via droplets when someone coughs or sneezes.

Regardless, either way, personal hygiene is paramount. We know that the virus can hang around on surfaces for quite some time, so hand washing, not touching one’s face, and similar are hugely important. But the single most effective protection is to stay away from other people. I can’t catch the virus if I don’t come near someone who carries it.

As to ozone, it seems reasonable that it might kill the virus: ozone is a very aggressive oxidant. Note that ozone is toxic above some threshold; I would suggest to check safe exposure limits.


----------



## lowercasebill

My ozone exposure is limited to holding my breath while i open bathroom window and turn on fan.


----------



## HRC_64

Michi said:


> Maybe so, maybe not. In the absence of evidence, we simply do not know.



The "requirement for the exististence of data" is not itself without issue...


> *The problem of induction* ... the apparent lack of justification for:
> 
> 1. Generalizing about the properties of a class of objects based on some number of observations of particular instances of that class (e.g., the inference that "all swans we have seen are white, and, therefore, all swans are white", before the discovery of black swans) or
> 
> 2. Presupposing that a sequence of events in the future will occur as it always has in the past (e.g., that the laws of physics will hold as they have always been observed to hold). Hume called this the principle of uniformity of nature.[2]



We have DATA from SARS corona virus version 1, and there is also alot of CONFOUNDING data on aerosolization of SARS 1 and 2

This is a "reasonable" (journalistic) summary of "a range" of data out there.>
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-can-become-aerosol-doesnt-mean-doomed/


----------



## HRC_64

lowercasebill said:


> My ozone exposure is limited to holding my breath while i open bathroom window and turn on fan.



It seems the loo is the one domestic area with the highest liklihood of aersolization



> A study by virologist Ke Lan of Wuhan University and his colleagues found that “rare” does not mean “never,” however. They took 35 air samples at two hospitals as well as public areas in Wuhan, where the Covid-19 outbreak apparently started. They found no coronavirus in intensive care areas where Covid-19 patients were being treated, in general patient rooms, in hallways, or outside the hospitals.
> ...
> But coronavirus aerosols were found near patients’ toilets in Wuchang Fangcang Field Hospital. That wasn’t a total shock: Receptors for coronavirus exist not only in the airways but also in the gastrointestinal tract, so cells there can become infected, shedding virus into fecal material. The paper, posted to a preprint site, has not been peer-reviewed.



Its worth noting that avoid aersolization from dirty water being disutuberd / flushed (eg at a later date) is a potential source of aersolization. Preumable so is the shower or a sink that has been soiled with contamiated physical dirt/debris.


----------



## HRC_64

It's important to read the fine-print on various studies.

Earlier, it was estimated based on SARS v-1 that Cov-2 could last 2-9 days on surfaces. Then they tested aerosolized versions and got 1-3 days. But here we see a different test showing 7 days. The key difference is not only the media is a variable, but so are the innoculation techniques> This means you get more of a "matrix" of results rather than a simple "single point" reult for your answer. This is important because splashing vs aersolization vs soiling etc are all possible methods of "real world" contamination in clinical settings, and there are multiple types of surface which may be infected (metal, plastic, cloth, etc).

One reason "medical" grade of surgical masks (as discussed earlier) are different from industrial grade is that medical masks are at huge riks of "splash" contamination. SO medical n95 and often other surgical masks are "liquid resistant" by desingn. In fact, in order to "re-use" disposable surgical n95 the CDC guidelines require the n95 be "double" masked with either another (non n95) or a full face-shield to avoid liquid contamination.

Earlier today a research article from Hong Kong provided data wich supports these earlier decision steps:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036673v2
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036673v1.full.pdf



> We further investigated the stability of this virus on different surfaces at RT. In brief, a 5-
> μL droplet of virus culture.... The inoculated objects were retrieved at various time points and each object
> was then immediately soaked with 200 μL of VTM for 30 minutes at RT to elute the virus. For
> printing and tissue papers, no infectious virus could be recovered from these surfaces after a 3-
> hour incubation. No infectious virus from treated cloth and stainless steel could be recovered on
> Days 2 and 7, respectively. *Strikingly, a significant level of infectious virus could still be detected
> on the outer layer of a surgical mask on Day 7* (0.1% of the original inoculum), indicating SARS-
> CoV-2 is extremely stable on this surface. Representative negative eluents recovered from each
> surface were tested positive by RT-PCR


----------



## Michi

HRC_64 said:


> The "requirement for the exististence of data" is not itself without issue...
> 
> *The problem of induction *[...]
> 
> We have DATA from SARS corona virus version 1, and there is also alot of CONFOUNDING data on aerosolization of SARS 1 and 2
> 
> This is a "reasonable" (journalistic) summary of "a range" of data out there.>
> https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-can-become-aerosol-doesnt-mean-doomed/



Ah, induction  It's vexed philosophers for ages. The problem is that the conclusion contains more information than the premises provide.

Here is a decent article that talks about how the virus spreads in layman's terms:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-03-28/is-coronavirus-airborne-covid19-australia/12090974

TL;DR: There is no evidence at the moment that (unlike measles) the virus spreads by floating in the air and getting inhaled—but we cannot positively rule this out yet as a method of transmission either. Infection is possible by droplets getting deposited on a surface and then getting collected by someone else. Most likely is direct droplet infection: someone coughing or sneezing nearby.

The core message has not changed: stay away from other people, wash hands after returning from a trip (and use sanitizer during the trip), don't touch your face until after your hands are clean again.

Most importantly: don't move about unless you really have to. If you don't have the infection already and you stay put where you are, you can't get it.


----------



## Bill13

Looks like the beginning of the backtracking has begun. This is from The New England Journal of Medicine and one of the authors is Dr Fauci. Bold is mine.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the _Journal_, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. *This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza *(which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2


----------



## lowercasebill

For what it's worth.
My state over the last 4 days
+250, +275, +500, +1000


----------



## Bill13

The Imperial College professor whose first modeling said the death rate in the UK could be as high as 500,000 and in the US 2,000,000 has now lowered his estimate to 20,000 in the UK and mentions it could be much lower. Media and politicians ran with the high end number.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...ronavirus-deaths-in-uk-revises-to-20k-or-less


----------



## lowercasebill

Dr. Brix? Said the same thing.
(Lower estimates too much hype)


----------



## ian

Well, let’s hope that’s the case. I don’t doubt that the current social distancing protocols are helping, though.


----------



## Bill13

They did the same thing last time:

https://www.rt.com/uk/484319-coronavirus-swine-flu-hysteria-redux/

How many people died in the UK from the flu in the year before this flu season (which I choose because I think this years flu season stats are dirty with Covid mixed in by accident)? It was 15,969. In 2014/15 about 33,000.


----------



## Bill13

ian said:


> Well, let’s hope that’s the case. I don’t doubt that the current social distancing protocols are helping, though.



I think they are too, but now that we know more about the mortality rate I think it is time to rationally discuss the safety protocols in place, area by area. The damage that is occurring is enormous, and for what? Something that will be similar to a bad flu season.

And now that a second French study has confirmed the efficacy of the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin lets not have governors trying to ban it's use.

https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/La-Scola-et-al-V1.pdf


----------



## Matus

Well, we can speculate all we want about the mortality rates. To my knowledge there is not (yet) a test that can distinguish the SARS-Cov-2 from other coronavirus family members, so large scale screening that could gives us a better understanding of the actual infection rate would be distorted by 'false positives' where people having 'common' cold (coronaviruses cause about 10% of all cases) would test positive too. This may change (soon) as it appears that new tests are being developed.

What at the end of the day matters is the rate of severe cases where patients must be treated in hospital - and these numbers are soaring in several (and about to soar in many more) countries what should be enough to understand that we are dealing with a disease that is more serious than common flu or even Influenza. 

So to keep talking whether the mortality is 3% or 0.3% is somehwat of a secondary importance on a short term scale, as we could get the same numbers of sever at the early stage of a disease with a modest mortality rate but high speed of spread or a disease that spreads more slowly, but has higher mortality rate. 

For the countries that took restrictive measures it will still take at least 2 weeks to get any idea how effective the measures were and whether more or less restrictive measures will be necessary to keep the numbers under control over longer period of time.

One way or another - most likely only a vaccine (that may be available in about a year from now) will allow us to get back to 'normal'. But already today we can see that countries that implemented strong measures when the numbers of infected were still low have seen much slower growth in active cases - I am going to use Slovakia as an example (currently at 53 active cases per M inhabitants). Countries that were too late have overloaded their health system are suffering loss of life not only from the pandemic, but also from inability to take are of other patients. Nobody wants to get to where Italy or Spain is right now.


----------



## Kippington

Bill13 said:


> Looks like the beginning of the backtracking has begun. This is from The New England Journal of Medicine and one of the authors is Dr Fauci. Bold is mine.
> 
> https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
> 
> On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the _Journal_, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. *This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza *(which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2


That editorial was published on February 28, 2020. One month later and the reported case fatality rate in Italy is approximately 10.6%.

The second link regarding the hypothetical UK death toll was updated to reflect current active counter-measures.


----------



## Matus

Italy is most likely incapable to do enough testing what of course pushes the fatality rate up. Already in DE there are pretty strict rules who will get tested and who not, so there are certainly many more actual cases than active cases. But how large that factor is - I have no idea.


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## Kippington

Yes, that was covered in the quoted article. Hence "reported case" fatality rates.


----------



## ian

Bill13 said:


> I think they are too, but now that we know more about the mortality rate I think it is time to rationally discuss the safety protocols in place, area by area. The damage that is occurring is enormous, and for what? Something that will be similar to a bad flu season.
> 
> And now that a second French study has confirmed the efficacy of the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin lets not have governors trying to ban it's use.
> 
> https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/La-Scola-et-al-V1.pdf



I don’t understand everything about their paper, obviously, but there’s a big difference between a preliminary study like this and proof that this is a safe treatment recommended for mass use. Let’s be optimistic and happy about the paper without jumping too far ahead.


----------



## CiderBear

Time for some positive (ugh, pun not intended) news https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucej...bott-labs-five-minute-rapid-coronavirus-test/

*In Abbott’s case, the company said it will be making ID NOW COVID-19 tests available next week with the ability to deliver 50,000 tests per day.*


----------



## Kippington

I honestly think Bill is looking at this incorrectly.


Bill13 said:


> How many people died in the UK from the flu in the year before this flu season (which I choose because I think this years flu season stats are dirty with Covid mixed in by accident)? It was 15,969. In 2014/15 about 33,000.



_ - "The Department of Health said another 260 people across the UK have died in the last 24 hours as of 5pm on Friday. " (The Guardian)_​
If Covid 19 killed 260 people in the UK every day, it would equal 94,900 deaths in a year.
But it won't stay that way of course. The same article goes on to say...

_ - "The total number of deaths is now 34% higher than the equivalent figure yesterday"_​
Covid 19 is looking more dangerous than a bad seasonal flu, wouldn't you agree?


----------



## ian

Armchair epidemiology aside, I can’t remember the last time a seasonal flu caused hospitals everywhere to run out of ventilators and rent cooled trucks to store dead bodies...


----------



## Bill13

Agreed, but I am surprised at the % of people that seem upset about this possible good news and two states trying to block it's use. This blog post about the first study is easier to read (for me too) :http://www.virology.ws/2020/03/19/h...viral-load-and-symptoms-in-covid-19-patients/



The small number is concerning but the fact that it did not have a blinded control arm but rather patients that refused the medicine as the control arm is way overblown to me. I do not believe there is a placebo effect that will reduce you viral load. I believe in MN there is a larger trail that started last Tuesday that has the protocols in place to please the doubters of the first trail. That should read out in another 2-3 weeks. Until then we will get storied like this that spread the possible good news. https://www.forbes.com/sites/marybe...t-is-she-a-harbinger-or-outlier/#5c1e97ae5b84


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## WildBoar

Bill, I'm on another forum that has a lot of doctors and other medical professions from many part of the world. Several are in the NYC area, too. Their reports are eye-opening. If you are bad enough to go on a ventilator there is very little chance you will recover. Also, the downturn in peoples' condition is very, very fast. And for the medial workers, lots of issues with inadequate protection for staff members, etc. and lots of people working scared.


----------



## Luftmensch

Kippington said:


> Covid 19 is looking more dangerous than a bad seasonal flu, wouldn't you agree?



Yeah 




Bill13 said:


> How many people died in the UK from the flu in the year before this flu season (which I choose because I think this years flu season stats are dirty with Covid mixed in by accident)? It was 15,969. In 2014/15 about 33,000.




Are you sure those numbers are reliable? Most open governments are pretty good at documenting these things. Seek and ye shall find... the annual flu reports from Public Health England (PHE).

2017 - 2018 (emphasis my own):


> Through the USISS mandatory scheme, a total of 3,454 ICU/HDU admissions of *confirmed influenza* were reported across the UK from week 40 2017 to week 15 2018, *including 372 deaths*, based on combined data from England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. In England, the total number of influenza confirmed admissions to ICU/HDU was 3,175 (rate of 0.22 per 100, 000 population) and 320 deaths during the same period (Figure 14).



2018 - 2019 (emphasis my own):


> Through the USISS mandatory scheme, a total of 3,157 ICU/HDU admissions of *confirmed influenza* were reported across the UK from week 40 2018 to week 15 2019, *including 312 deaths*, based on combined data from England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. In England, the total number of influenza confirmed admissions to ICU/HDU was 2,924 from 140 NHS acute trusts (mean weekly incidence of 0.21 per 100,000 trust population) with 273 influenza deaths in ICU during the same period (Figure 17).




The WHO publishes daily situation reports on COVID-19. The most recent WHO sit-rep (at time of writing) records 11,662 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 578 deaths for the UK. Although, as I write this, PHE is reporting 1,019 deaths.

Note that we are comparing _winter_ influenza reports with _three months_ of COVID-19. It is worth noting that the PHE 2017 -2018 annual flu report opens with the paragraph (emphasis my own):


> In the 2017 to 2018 season, *moderate to high levels of influenza activity were observed in the UK* with co-circulation of influenza B and influenza A(H3).




If 2017 - 2018 was moderate to bad flu year... what is this? Unless I have read the data wrong, COVID-19 has been active in the UK for only half the time of a winter flu season and caused almost 3x as many deaths (using PHE's numbers).


----------



## Kippington

Bill13 said:


> And now that a second French study has confirmed the efficacy of the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin lets not have governors trying to ban it's use.
> https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/La-Scola-et-al-V1.pdf





ian said:


> I don’t understand everything about their paper, obviously, but there’s a big difference between a preliminary study like this and proof that this is a safe treatment recommended for mass use. Let’s be optimistic and happy about the paper without jumping too far ahead.


There's an infectious disease physician (Dr. Daniel Griffin) working with Covid-19 patients in New York. Here are his thoughts on the French study of Hydroxychloroquine (Plaquenil)

*"(The study) just looked at the viral load, they didn't look at the patients. They didn't look at clinical outcomes..."

"They start off with a whole bunch of people, they say "Okay, this group we're going to put on the treatment arm", and this group just said "Yeah, I'm not interested"... and the people that were not interested, (the study) checked viral loads in them: They all stayed in the study, none of them died, none of them got intubated, none of them decompensated. But if you look at the clinical outcomes in the treatment arm - I don't know if anyone looked at this - one of them dies (so we're not going to look at his viral load anymore), a bunch of people decompensate... So I look at the clinical outcomes and I say: Okay if I have a choice between being in the treatment arm where people are dying and ending up intubated in the ICU, or the control arm where they actually all did okay and survived... I'm not sure I find Plaquenil (Hydroxychloroquine) so compelling in this study..."*​


----------



## Bill13

WildBoar said:


> Bill, I'm on another forum that has a lot of doctors and other medical professions from many part of the world. Several are in the NYC area, too. Their reports are eye-opening. If you are bad enough to go on a ventilator there is very little chance you will recover. Also, the downturn in peoples' condition is very, very fast. And for the medial workers, lots of issues with inadequate protection for staff members, etc. and lots of people working scared.


 
Right, which I compare to the soldier in the battle. Really bad there which they extrapolate to everywhere. I have no doubt it is very bad in NYC and elsewhere but I am focusing on big picture. Have any of your connections used the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin on their patients? 
Remember too that New Yorkers were told to continue on with their daily lives up until the second week of March making things much worse: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/nyregion/coronavirus-bill-de-blasio.html

Considering the lag time between infection and severe symptoms I think/hope that NYC has a week at most to go before cases start to drop.


----------



## HRC_64

ian said:


> Armchair epidemiology aside, I can’t remember the last time a seasonal flu caused hospitals everywhere to run out of ventilators and rent cooled trucks to store dead bodies...



AGREE. IMHO People are confusing 'rates' (proportions) with actual numbers (quantities)....
The problem with Covid 19 is NOT the death rate being 1/100

THE ATTACK SURFACE of FLU (influenza) and COVID - 19 (SARS-2) are not comparable at all...

1% of 1000 = 10
1% of 1M = 10 thousand (eg...low year FLU)
1% of 10M =100 thousand (eg high year FLU)
1% of 100M = 1 million
1% of 350M = 3.5 million (YOU ARE HERE)
1% of 3.5B = 35 million

This is why a "novel" virus is such a danger when its so highly contagious, even if the actual proportional risk is relative similar.
1% vs 2% isn't a big deal, its the massive population exposure 
in combination with that 1-2% risk that is the problem here.


----------



## HRC_64

Also, as a side note...for those arguing about growth rates...

Please look up the difference between logarithmic and logistic curves. nearly all growth charts are closer logistic in the long run, even if hey "look logarithmic" in the short run...






https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

rather than tweaking each other about whether or how best to extrapolate based on limited data...perhaps a more legitimate question alot of the time is "where/when is the inflection point" and what will cause it? 

Growth rates aren't stable in pandemics because there are feedback loops...acquired/natural immunity, medical innoculation, strageic changes in behaviour, etc


----------



## WildBoar

Bill13 said:


> Have any of your connections used the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin on their patients?


They are forum members, not really connections. And there are quite a few posts concerning those drugs, including some this morning that the azithromvcin can have enough other adverse effects that it is being avoided in some areas.


----------



## CiderBear

Let's take a show of hands: those who don't think this pandemic is *that* serious, have you ever lived in a metropolitan area and depended on public transportation to get to work/ anywhere? Do you have to push elevator buttons at home and work multiple times a day?

Or does your routine involve you leaving your suburban home in the morning, getting into your own car, driving to your workplace with no second floor, then driving home, again in the comfort of your own car?


----------



## M1k3

CiderBear said:


> Let's take a show of hands: those who don't think this pandemic is *that* serious, have you ever lived in a metropolitan area and depended on public transportation to get to work/ anywhere? Do you have to push elevator buttons at home and work multiple times a day?
> 
> Or does your routine involve you leaving your suburban home in the morning, getting into your own car, driving to your workplace with no second floor, then driving home, again in the comfort of your own car?



Hell, how many touch 1 singular surface exposed to the general public, then touch their phone without washing and/or sanitizing their hands and then, put the phone in your pocket. How many clean their phones? That thing is a cesspool! 

P.S. Carrots


----------



## Bill13

HRC_64, post: 686168, member: 34943"]Also, as a side note...for those arguing about growth rates...

Please look up the difference between logarithmic and logistic curves. nearly all growth charts are closer logistic in the long run, even if hey "look logarithmic" in the short run...





https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

rather than tweaking each other about whether or how best to extrapolate based on limited data...perhaps a more legitimate question alot of the time is "where/when is the inflection point" and what will cause it?

Growth rates aren't stable in pandemics because there are feedback loops...acquired/natural immunity, medical innoculation, strageic changes in behaviour, etc[/QUOTE]







This graph shows the other side of the curve. Big steep climb then a drop. Just to be clear, I'm not saying this virus is not bad juju, only that it is not as bad as is being shown on the news. Agree to with Wildboars point that it also puts much more stress on the hospitals than the seasonal flu due to the respiratory issues.

https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/162/5/479/82647


----------



## Codered

Where do you guys come up with those 1-2% death rate? In italy the death rate is 10.8% and in Spain it is 7.4% and growing. It is all linked to the capacity of the health system. In Germany the death percentage is small because they manage to find cases fast isolate them and treat them in normal circumstances. But US seems to be joining Italy and Spain in terms of overwhelmed health system and speed of infection. So i guess the percantege will be more in the 10% range


----------



## Bill13

Codered said:


> Where do you guys come up with those 1-2% death rate? In italy the death rate is 10.8% and in Spain it is 7.4% and growing. It is all linked to the capacity of the health system. In Germany the death percentage is small because they manage to find cases fast isolate them and treat them in normal circumstances. But US seems to be joining Italy and Spain in terms of overwhelmed health system and speed of infection. So i guess the percantege will be more in the 10% range



I think the rate of death is more closely linked to the age of the patient and Italy's population skews to the elderly. Another important factor is % of population that smokes. I think the 1% will end up being high in the US. I got my information from The New England Journal of Medicine, published 2/28/20. and one of the authors was Dr Fauci, head of the CDC. He is lowering it from the current rate because he believes the number of people that have or had the disease and don't report it because it did not affect them enough to bother with getting tested or going to the hospital is much higher than currently guessed.

I do not think the overall health care system will get overwhelmed, only in hot spots. We are a country of 350,000,000. Right now there is a total of 2,666 serious critical cases. Maybe it will in a few weeks if the curve does not flatten and then drop, but let's hope not. And in a few weeks we will know more about hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin. My guess is the combination will continue to be a very good and cheap treatment option. That drop mid second day is a fantastic result.






Here is a nice site for up to date numbers.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries​


----------



## Michi

Right now, worldometer reports 657,000 infections and 30,000 deaths. That is 4.5%. To turn this into 1.4%, we would have to assume that the number of unreported/unrecognised infections is three times the actual number. Given that the infection can cause only very mild symptoms or even no symptoms, I'm guessing that this is not impossible. But we do not know what we don't know. It makes little sense to talk about mortality rate when we do not have sample sizes that are unbiased and statistically significant. We have not done anywhere near enough unbiased testing to know how many people are _actually_ infected.

One reason mortality rates are low right now is that, in most places, the hospitals have not been overwhelmed yet. They will be. Two weeks from now, at the latest. Mortality rates will climb sharply then.

We also have not yet seen the real outcomes in places such as India, Indonesia, and Africa. The disease will tear through these places largely unchecked, with no health system worth speaking of in many regions. India has had three days of lock-down, and social unrest is starting there already. Most likely, social order will rapidly disintegrate in many areas. People who are starving have nothing to lose and will not hesitate to riot and loot. I expect that millions of people will die, many of them not from coronavirus.

1.4% of the American population is 4.6 million people.


----------



## daveb

Michi said:


> ....reports 657,000 infections (detected???) and....



Not sure the debate, discussion, pontificating, and general bs about fatality rate has much meaning as different populations are detected at different rates. The old saying about "figures don't lie, but liars figure" resonates with me and the more numbers that are used to make a point the more it does so.

A lot will get the Chinese virus. Some will die. Most won't. The only certainty is politicians of all stripes will take credit for solving the problem.


----------



## Bill13

"Never let a crisis go to waste" is a famous quote. I will always look to see who is trying to solve the problem and who is using it as an excuse to claim more power or please their base. The recent Covid bill has many examples of this. I noticed that the LA mayor has said they are using cell phone data to track people. Scary stuff.


----------



## HRC_64

M1k3 said:


> How many clean their phones? That thing is a cesspool!



apartment/car keys and Keyboards also  

very hard to get isoporopyl alcholol at almost every store tho right now


----------



## Michi

Bill13 said:


> I noticed that the LA mayor has said they are using cell phone data to track people. Scary stuff.


Singapore started doing this some time ago. As a tool for better epidemiology, tracking is useful. Location data can be used to aid contact tracing. What worries me is that governments, once they have increased their power and control, are unlikely to relinquish that power and control again once the crisis is over. After all, if we keep tracking people regardless, we'll be so much better prepared for next time, won't we?

And this argument actually makes sense. If you can trust your government.


----------



## M1k3

I wonder how fine grained the data is. Like how many are hitting 'Cell Tower A located near a shopping mall' between 9am and 5pm versus the average for the same day and time before this hit, or individual data.


----------



## ian

M1k3 said:


> How many clean their phones? That thing is a cesspool!



The great thing about some of the new phones (for example, mine) is that they are waterproof up to a certain depth for a certain amount of time. So, you can actually wash it with soap and water if you want. (I usually use a damp cloth though.)


----------



## podzap

lowercasebill said:


> It is not unreasonable to assume



Every assumption is unreasonable. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.


----------



## podzap

Michi said:


> If you don't have the infection already and you stay put where you are, you can't get it.



Sure you can. People will bring you food, etc. Unless you lock yourself into a bunker with ten thousand cans of tuna or something like that.


----------



## PalmRoyale

ian said:


> The great thing about some of the new phones (for example, mine) is that they are waterproof up to a certain depth for a certain amount of time. So, you can actually wash it with soap and water if you want. (I usually use a damp cloth though.)



I still use a Samsung C3350, one of those ruggedized old school phones. It's waterproof up to a depth of 3 feet for an hour. No problem cleaning it with water and soap


----------



## Michi

podzap said:


> Sure you can. People will bring you food, etc.


OK, yes, that's possible. But the probability of getting infected that way is way lower than it is when I'm moving around among other people.

The "social isolation" mantra is being endlessly repeated for good reason: it works.


----------



## ian

Question: is this the most infectious thread ever? 786 posts in under a month may be a record.

edit: 787, wasn’t fast enough


----------



## Michi

ian said:


> Question: is this the most infectious thread ever?


It's called "collateral damage"


----------



## podzap

Michi said:


> The "social isolation" mantra is being endlessly repeated for good reason: it works.



I have discovered that my antisocial personality disorder is actually a blessing during coronageddon. And that people are finally leaving me the hell alone  I really don't like people at all and have no emotional need for contact with anyone other than my wife. I'd be perfectly happy if all the monkeys were permanently kept on the other side of the glass. Just sayin'.


----------



## WildBoar

Anyone who trusts any government is not playing with a full deck.

Unless they are trusting that the government will never do the "right thing"


----------



## Michi

M1k3 said:


> I wonder how fine grained the data is. Like how many are hitting 'Cell Tower A located near a shopping mall' between 9am and 5pm versus the average for the same day and time before this hit, or individual data.


Without cooperation from the phone, not terribly accurately. Basically limited to the cell the phone is in and possibly what sector inside the cell, with a rough estimate of distance from signal strength.

Singapore offers a free Trace Together app that sends GPS data (accurate to tens of meters or better, depending on reception conditions and how many satellites can be seen by the phone). Yesterday, I spoke with a good friend of mine who lives in Singapore. He mentioned that there are rumours about making use of the app mandatory.

Doing this in most Western countries would violate privacy legislation, so it's unlikely we'll see anything like this. But, from an epidemiological perspective, having that data (even if anonymised) would be hugely useful.


----------



## Kippington

podzap said:


> I have discovered that my antisocial personality disorder is actually a blessing during coronageddon. And that people are finally leaving me the hell alone  I really don't like people at all and have no emotional need for contact with anyone other than my wife. I'd be perfectly happy if all the monkeys were permanently kept on the other side of the glass. Just sayin'.


Ah yes, the national Finnish tradition of keeping people the heck away from you.
Reminds me of that famous picture of Fins lining up for the bus, a kind of social distancing done well before the pandemic times. The rest of the world is playing catch-up.


----------



## Michi

Kippington said:


> Reminds me of that famous picture of Fins lining up for the bus


Is this for real? Do Finnish people commonly queue that way? What about other queues, such as for a bank teller or similar?


----------



## Kippington




----------



## Michi

@Kippington That was gross!


----------



## podzap

Michi said:


> Is this for real? Do Finnish people commonly queue that way? What about other queues, such as for a bank teller or similar?



Yes, that is quite common. And we don't have bank tellers. All bank service points were closed nearly a decade ago.

There are extroverted people here, too. Right now would be really easy to identify them for elimination because they are the ones out in public. Those people don't keep distance at the supermarket checkout counter, for example. That's why I wear a mask. I may just keep wearing my mask long after this stuff is over, except that it is actually illegal according to Finnish law.


----------



## M1k3

podzap said:


> Yes, that is quite common. And we don't have bank tellers. All bank service points were closed nearly a decade ago.
> 
> There are extroverted people here, too. Right now would be really easy to identify them for elimination because they are the ones out in public. Those people don't keep distance at the supermarket checkout counter, for example. That's why I wear a mask. I may just keep wearing my mask long after this stuff is over, except that it is actually illegal according to Finnish law.



Are you accepting immigrants? I'm American but willing to assimilate.


----------



## podzap

M1k3 said:


> Are you accepting immigrants? I'm American but willing to assimilate.



The borders might be opened again at some point. Better fire up your tinder and start looking for a Finnish girlfriend


----------



## Kippington

Over the next month, the world will be watching these three countries very closely. I hope I'm wrong, but I've never seen so much death and suffering just waiting to happen...

*Brazil*
- Population 209 million (in 2017)
- 2.06 doctors per 1,000 people (in 2001)
- 3,904 confirmed Covid-19 cases (March 29th 2020)
President Bolsonaro suggested his people are naturally immune to the coronavirus, claiming they can swim in sewage and "nothing happens".

*Belarus*
- Population 9.5 million (in 2017)
- 4.55 doctors per 1,000 people (in 2003)
- 94 confirmed Covid-19 cases (March 29th 2020)
President Alexander Lukashenko has said "It is absolute stupidity to close state borders. No one is talking about the virus. In the villages, the tractor will heal everyone. The fields heal everyone.”

*India*
- Population 1,339 million (in 2017)
- 0.6 doctors per 1,000 people (in 2004)
- 987 confirmed Covid-19 cases (March 29th 2020)
A video of people leaving for their hometowns from the capital city of India amidst the lockdown


----------



## M1k3

podzap said:


> The borders might be opened again at some point. Better fire up your tinder and start looking for a Finnish girlfriend



Hmm, I don't think my wife would be very happy with that.


----------



## Michi

Kippington said:


> President Bolsonaro suggested his people are naturally immune to the coronavirus, claiming they can swim in sewage and "nothing happens".
> 
> President Alexander Lukashenko has said "It is absolute stupidity to close state borders. No one is talking about the virus. In the villages, the tractor will heal everyone. The fields heal everyone.”


In these difficult times, we need strong and decisive leaders…


----------



## podzap

Michi said:


> In these difficult times, we need strong and decisive leaders…



Belarus is like the only part of the Soviet Union that never fell. They still have a KGB. For real.


----------



## podzap

M1k3 said:


> Hmm, I don't think my wife would be very happy with that.



Mine wasn't, either  J/K


----------



## chinacats

A bit harsh but good read from the front lines. Sounds like triage is taking place at residences vs er's.

BTW, for the time being, NYT covid coverage is unlimited free access.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-ems.html


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Boy been reading more about covid 19 here than local news. Hawaii is more liberal than most states. Worried about the homeless making spaces for them if they catch it. Many homeless here smoke meth that's why will not go to drug free shelter and not fit to get a job. 

I saw a piece on a middle aged man who had Sars. It left him with lasting damage to his body even after he recovered. I would think that if you have other issues covid 19 though it may not kill you could leave you in a weakened state. 

I'm taking this stuff serious. Retired now in 70's got enough home jobs to keep me busy.


----------



## Luftmensch

HRC_64 said:


> Also, as a side note...for those arguing about growth rates...
> 
> Please look up the difference between logarithmic and logistic curves. nearly all growth charts are closer logistic in the long run, even if hey "look logarithmic" in the short run...



If you want to be a pedant, people are confusing growth (a rate: that is change over time) with the number of cases of the infection over time. 

The early phase of the pandemic exhibits exponential growth. This is a reasonable function to describe the increase in the number of cases over time as the virus enters a community with no immunity. I did it here [#552] - qualitatively, it is not a bad fit.

It is a terrible function for describing the number of cases over time. An exponential function can only go up - yet we know the upper limit of cases is the population of the globe. An exponential function cannot model a local maxima - the math does not permit it. Even a logistic curve is a terrible function for describing the number of cases over time. A logistic function cannot decrease once it hits its maximum value. We know that the body can fight the infection. If the global population contracted the disease, many people would recover and the number of cases would decline.

If I had to choose a simple parametric distribution to describe the number of cases over time, it might be something from the exponential family of distributions - perhaps a skew normal. In reality, it is going to be a more complex function that requires more flexibility (parameters).

I somewhat made light of this in [#552] by linking to XKCD - 'model selection' is a big deal in data analytics....


----------



## Kippington

There's a pretty cool video by mathematician Ben Sparks here on Numberphile:

You can play with the variables on the graph to model your own little pandemic here: https://www.geogebra.org/m/nbjfjtpv
Or here: https://www.geogebra.org/m/utbemrca


----------



## Luftmensch

Bill13 said:


> Just to be clear, I'm not saying this virus is not bad juju, only that it is not as bad as is being shown on the news. Agree to with Wildboars point that it also puts much more stress on the hospitals than the seasonal flu due to the respiratory issues.



I can't speak for any individuals experience of the media. We each occupy our own 'bubbles' (those bubbles can overlap with one another) when it comes to consuming media. I also recognise that you acknowledge this virus is bad....

I'll quote what I wrote in [#765]:



Luftmensch said:


> Unless I have read the data wrong, COVID-19 has been active in the UK for only half the time of a winter flu season and caused almost 3x as many deaths (using PHE's numbers).



It seems worth making a fuss about. In the media I consume, familiar reporting patterns are in action: there is almost nothing but COVID-19 on the front page. This happens with any salient event (war, economic collapse).

Sure some things are sensationalised. Sure some data is ambiguous. But this event does require attention. The media here has reported on successive public health initiatives that are enforceable by law - the public _need_ to know this. It is also clear that this is crashing economies around the globe. Watch unemployment rise. If you havent gotten ill, you may well suffer knock on effects like job loss. Look at the ripples in this forum - it is sad.

I agree that in this media saturated age, it is easy to be hyperbolic. But even a sober analysis of the situation would conclude it pretty bad...


----------



## Luftmensch

Kippington said:


> There's a pretty cool video by mathematician Ben Sparks here on Numberphile



Numberphile.... Rick and Morty.... Is there anything you don't watch 

Good taste


----------



## Kippington

Luftmensch said:


> Numberphile.... Rick and Morty.... Is there anything you don't watch
> 
> Good taste


I am naught but a humble knife-maker, studying feverishly for exams to become an armchair expert on the holistic universe. 

Or maybe the fever is from something else... 
________________

*Final exams*
Instructions: Read each question carefully. Answer all questions.
Time limit: 2 hours. Begin immediately.

*Art*: Given one eight-count box of crayons and three sheets of notebook paper, recreate the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel. Skin tones should be true to life.

*Biology*: Create life. Estimate the differences in subsequent human culture if this form of life had developed 500 million years earlier, with special attention to its probable effect on the English Parliamentary System circa 1750. Prove your thesis.

*Chemistry*: You must identify a poison sample which you will find at your lab table. All necessary equipment has been provided. There are two beakers at your desk, one of which holds the antidote. If the wrong substance is used, it causes instant death. You may begin as soon as the professor injects you with a sample of the poison. (We feel this will give you an incentive to find the correct answer.)

*Civil Engineering*: This is a practical test of your design and building skills. With the boxes of toothpicks and glue present, build a platform that will support your weight when you and your platform are suspended over a vat of nitric acid.

*Computer Science*: Write a fifth-generation computer language. Using this language, write a computer program to finish the rest of this exam for you.

*Economics*: Develop a realistic plan for refinancing the national debt. Trace the possible effects of your plan in the following areas: Cubism, the Donatist Controversy and the Wave Theory of Light. Outline a method for preventing these effects. Criticize this method from all possible points of view. Point out the deficiencies in your point of view, as demonstrated in your answer to the last question.

*Electrical Engineering*: You will be placed in a nuclear reactor and given a partial copy of the electrical layout. The electrical system has been tampered with. You have seventeen minutes to find the problem and correct it before the reactor melts down.

*Engineering*: The disassembled parts of a high-powered rifle have been placed on your desk. You will also find an instruction manual, printed in Swahili. In 10 minutes, a hungry Bengal tiger will be admitted to the room. Take whatever action you feel necessary. Be prepared to justify your decision.

*Epistemology*: Take a position for or against truth. Prove the validity of your stand.

*General Knowledge*: Describe in detail. Be objective and specific.

*History*: Describe the history of the Papacy from its origins to the present day, concentrating especially, but not exclusively, on Europe, Asia, America and Africa. Be brief, concise and specific.

*Mathematics*: Derive the Euler-Cauchy equations using only a straight edge and compass. Discuss in detail the role these equations had on mathematical analysis in Europe during the 1800s.

*Medicine*: You have been provided with a razor blade, a piece of gauze, and a bottle of scotch. Remove your appendix. Do not suture until you work has been inspected. You have fifteen minutes.

*Metaphysics*: Describe in detail the probably of life after death. Test your hypothesis.

*Music*: Write a piano concerto. Orchestrate and perform it with flute and drum. You will find a piano under your seat.

*Philosophy*: Sketch the development of human thought. Estimate its significance. Compare with the development of any other kind of thought.

*Psychology*: Based on your knowledge of their works, evaluate the emotional stability, degree of adjustment, and repressed frustrations of each of the following: Alexander of Aphrodisis, Rameses II, Hammuarabi. Support your evaluation with quotations from each man's work, making appropriate references. It is not necessary to translate.

*Physics*: Explain the nature of matter. Include in your answer an evaluation of the impact of the development of mathematics on science.

*Political Science*: There is a red telephone on the desk beside you. Start World War III. Report at length on its socio-political effects if any.

*Public Speaking*: 2500 riot-crazed aborigines are storming the classroom. Calm them. You may use any ancient language except Latin or Greek.

*Religion*: Perform a miracle. Creativity will be judged.

*Sociology*: Estimate the sociological problems which might accompany the end of the world. Construct an experiment to test your theory.

*Extra Credit*: Define the universe, and give three examples.​


----------



## Luftmensch

Kippington said:


> Or maybe the fever is from something else...


----------



## WildBoar

I'm not sure that Civil Engineering exam is fair, as the majority of CEs take easier paths than structural (i.e., transportation, hydrology, environmental) and would not have the knowledge base to complete this task.

...for the rest of us, though, it would not be a very hard exam...


----------



## Nemo

Kippington said:


> Over the next month, the world will be watching these three countries very closely. I hope I'm wrong, but I've never seen so much death and suffering just waiting to happen...
> 
> *Brazil*
> - Population 209 million (in 2017)
> - 2.06 doctors per 1,000 people (in 2001)
> - 3,904 confirmed Covid-19 cases (March 29th 2020)
> President Bolsonaro suggested his people are naturally immune to the coronavirus, claiming they can swim in sewage and "nothing happens".
> 
> *Belarus*
> - Population 9.5 million (in 2017)
> - 4.55 doctors per 1,000 people (in 2003)
> - 94 confirmed Covid-19 cases (March 29th 2020)
> President Alexander Lukashenko has said "It is absolute stupidity to close state borders. No one is talking about the virus. In the villages, the tractor will heal everyone. The fields heal everyone.”
> 
> *India*
> - Population 1,339 million (in 2017)
> - 0.6 doctors per 1,000 people (in 2004)
> - 987 confirmed Covid-19 cases (March 29th 2020)
> A video of people leaving for their hometowns from the capital city of India amidst the lockdown



I'm pretty worried about Indonesia as well.


----------



## Michi

Nemo said:


> I'm pretty worried about Indonesia as well.


Indonesia, India, Africa. Almost 3 billion people live there, many of whom have no access to meaningful healthcare or social support.


----------



## podzap

Nemo said:


> I'm pretty worried about Indonesia as well.



I'm pretty worried about our entire human race. Still wouldn't mind if they would just keep their distance.

There are already reports of civil unrest starting to ramp up in Italy. People using social media to organise looting raids on supermarkets, etc. People losing their sanity due to 3 weeks in the house, when they so readily toss people into jail for decades over a few joints.

If I were the breeder, I would select against extroversion.


----------



## Kippington

podzap said:


> If I were the breeder, I would select against extroversion.


----------



## LostHighway

While you're trapped inside I highly recommend Finnish director Aki Kaurismäki's work. 
There was a a substantial Finnish immigration to Northern Minnesota and the Michigan U.P. in the very late 19th and early 20th C and pockets of strong Finnish culture still survive https://www.saveur.com/minnesota-finnish-triangle-cheese/


----------



## Chuckles

I was in the North American debut of an Opera by Finnish Composer Einojuhani Rautavaara at the University of Minnesota about 20 years ago. Gave me a little insight into the culture and the diaspora around here. It’s a whacky bunch but a lot of fun.


----------



## bahamaroot

In the end after sifting through all the numbers and BS it is how infectious this virus is and not the death rate that is wreaking most of the havok and overwhelming healthcare systems. If you had the same number of cases and deaths over a period of well over a year as opposed to a few months this virus would not be considered as big of a deal as it is today.


----------



## Luftmensch

Kippington said:


> You will find a piano under your seat.



There were a lot of good lines in there... but this one cracked me up!


----------



## M1k3




----------



## Dave Martell

Dr speaks about how COVID-19 kills, death toll, & truths...


----------



## Bill13

France has officially sanctioned the use of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin to treat covid 19. 

Hopefully the changes made to the FDA rules regarding manufacturing will ramp up production quickly in the US so that patients that need hydroxychloroquine for the treatment of other issues will not have supply issues.


----------



## pistachio

Bill13 said:


> And in a few weeks we will know more about hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin. My guess is the combination will continue to be a very good and cheap treatment option. That drop mid second day is a fantastic result.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ​


While the data certainly suggests further investigation is warranted (and it is happening), this is a long way from being close to data that most people in the business would look at and make a statement like "my guess is the combination will continue to be a very good treatment option." One _certainly_ has that hope, but a small open label trial with somewhat messy data is not much more than a suggestion to do a proper trial to find out if there actually is any meaningful effect or you're just looking at sampling error/noise. It's great to be optimistic, but counting on the near-term discovery of an effective treatment as an important part of a strategy for dealing with the pandemic would be insane. Small reports can be interesting and valuable, but proper clinical data is necessary if you want to be able to know if a potential treatment has a real beneficial effect.


----------



## Kippington

If only getting a trial/test result was as easy and straight forward as it appears in the movies...

Hell... even the test kits for Covid-19 seem to have terrible sensitivity and specificity, which is not really surprising considering how quickly they were rolled out for a novel virus.

_- "The Spanish newspaper El País reported that microbiologists found that tests it bought from a Chinese company called Bioeasy could correctly identify virus cases only 30% of the time." (March 27, 2020)
- "Recent research found that the sensitivity of chest CT scans (radiology) for COVID-19 infection was 98% compared to RT-PCR (throat swab) sensitivity of 71%." (February 26, 2020)_​
_ - Professor Peter Doherty says reports of people contracting COVID-19 *twice *were unlikely to be true.
"I would be sceptical. But you can't say with absolute certainty. I would think even if it was a re-infection, that your prior infection would give you very rapid immunity and you would recover very quickly."
Professor Doherty said it was more likely the test results suggesting the patients were clear of the virus were wrong._​_









_


----------



## Geigs

There should be Australian made rapid NAT tests with greater than 95% specificity soon if my Intel is correct 



Kippington said:


> If only getting a trial/test result was as easy and straight forward as it appears in the movies...
> 
> Hell... even the test kits for Covid-19 seem to have terrible sensitivity and specificity, which is not really surprising considering how quickly they were rolled out for a novel virus.
> 
> _- "The Spanish newspaper El País reported that microbiologists found that tests it bought from a Chinese company called Bioeasy could correctly identify virus cases only 30% of the time." (March 27, 2020)
> - "Recent research found that the sensitivity of chest CT scans (radiology) for COVID-19 infection was 98% compared to RT-PCR (throat swab) sensitivity of 71%." (February 26, 2020)_​
> _ - Professor Peter Doherty says reports of people contracting COVID-19 *twice *were unlikely to be true.
> "I would be sceptical. But you can't say with absolute certainty. I would think even if it was a re-infection, that your prior infection would give you very rapid immunity and you would recover very quickly."
> Professor Doherty said it was more likely the test results suggesting the patients were clear of the virus were wrong._​_
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _


----------



## Luftmensch

Dave Martell said:


> Dr speaks about how COVID-19 kills, death toll, & truths...



Subtle post with an unsubtle video... ... Man... his concern is palpable


----------



## Bill13

NY cases and deaths dropped yesterday. Hopefully it is the start of a downward trend. FDA has approved the use of HC and AZ.


----------



## ian

Bill13 said:


> NY cases and deaths dropped yesterday. Hopefully it is the start of a downward trend.



I wouldn’t read much into the death rate drop. As discussed above, deaths follow the number of cases, but with a delay of a couple weeks. We didn’t see a drop in cases two weeks ago, and it certainly isn’t the case that NYC is getting better equipped to handle patients...



Bill13 said:


> FDA has approved the use of HC and AZ.



Looks like this was pushed through without any additional scrutiny, just on the merits of the French trials, and over objections from many scientists. Guess we’ll see what comes of it. Hopefully it’ll be effective.


----------



## HRC_64

Interview in LA times s shows as high as 30 percent false negative on Covid-19 testing 

https://www.latimes.com/california/...mprove-our-grossly-inadequate-capacity-so-far



> With the testing that we do, and with widespread community spread of the disease, there is no benefit to people without symptoms being tested, because the meaning of a negative test is pretty much zero. *The tests still have a pretty high false negative rate that can approach 30%.* Secondly, even if I can test you at a moment in time, until you get the results, you are being exposed every day, whether you go to the supermarket or go home. So when that test finally comes back as negative, we don’t want people to let their guard down and go back and resume their previous lives. They may well have an early infection that the test missed, or since that test was taken, they may have gone and exposed themselves to the virus.


----------



## Matus

One indeed needs to observe at least 4-5 days to be able to make any relevant conclusions. In different countries we have seen day-to-day jumps both ways. Already the way the cases are reported can shift considerable amount of cases from one day to another. And in particular in the case of US (and especially New York) seeing how many new positive cases are being recorded per day (close to 20k), any expectation on drop of deaths per day is way to premature, unfortunately.


----------



## M1k3

Yeah, 1 day drop, ok. 

5 straight days of cases dropping, start to take notice.


----------



## Dave Martell

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...odies-loaded-refrigerated-truck-forklift.html


----------



## Michi

Homeless people in Las Vegas bed down for the night, in marked areas that maintain minimum distance in a parking lot that opens at 6:00 pm and closes at 8:00 am.




The homeless are given a mat and blanket that get disinfected every day, while 150,000 hotel beds are empty in Las Vegas.


----------



## Bill13

In the WSJ yesterday it was explained how HC became used as a treatment, first in Wuhan (of course). Basically in Wuhan the Drs noticed that none of the patients in their hospitals who has lupus and were being treated for it with HC (or C I can't remember) came down with Covid. Realizing they were all being treated for their lupus with HC or C they started using that to treat Covid patients.


----------



## Michi

Bill13 said:


> In the WSJ yesterday it was explained how HC became used as a treatment, first in Wuhan (of course). Basically in Wuhan the Drs noticed that none of the patients in their hospitals who has lupus and were being treated for it with HC (or C I can't remember) came down with Covid. Realizing they were all being treated for their lupus with HC or C they started using that to treat Covid patients.


What is "HC" and "C"?


----------



## panda

Michi said:


> What is "HC" and "C"?


Hi-C and Coke


----------



## Michi

“Hi-C” meaning vitamin C?


----------



## Michi

And “Coke” as in “Coca Cola” or as in “Cocaine”?


----------



## panda




----------



## ian

Bill13 said:


> In the WSJ yesterday it was explained how HC became used as a treatment, first in Wuhan (of course). Basically in Wuhan the Drs noticed that none of the patients in their hospitals who has lupus and were being treated for it with HC (or C I can't remember) came down with Covid. Realizing they were all being treated for their lupus with HC or C they started using that to treat Covid patients.



Indeed, that's interesting, and perhaps it was a good wartime decision then to start using it! But while talking about this, let's keep in mind that this is like the complete opposite of a clinical trial...



Michi said:


> What is "HC" and "C"?



HC = hydroxychloroquine
C = chloroquine


----------



## CiderBear

Michi said:


> Homeless people in Las Vegas bed down for the night, in marked areas that maintain minimum distance in a parking lot that opens at 6:00 pm and closes at 8:00 am.
> View attachment 75515
> 
> The homeless are given a mat and blanket that get disinfected every day, while 150,000 hotel beds are empty in Las Vegas.



Honestly though, a lot of homeless people are homeless because of mental illness and they cannot (read: refuse to) stay inside. They will destroy that hotel room if you put them in it, and possibly endanger staff.

I'm all for converting hotel rooms into *something* (makeshift hospitals, quarantine zones for cruise ships, domestic violence shelters, temporary residence for doctors and nurses and other frontline workers so they don't put their families at risk, housing for traveling nurses, etc), just don't think homeless camps are a good use for them.


----------



## Michi

Right, thanks.

Yes, no doubt, vitamin C and Coke may well be the answer. Someone please call the governor of New York. And the Italian and Spanish prime minister. And Angela Merkel. Because they need all the help they can get right now.


----------



## Michi

CiderBear said:


> Honestly though, a lot of homeless people are homeless because of mental illness and they cannot (read: refuse to) stay inside. They will destroy that hotel room if you put them in it, and possibly endanger staff.


I acknowledge the point.

The US is one of the richest countries (if not _the_ richest country) on earth. I honestly cannot think of any other first-world country that treats its poor and under-privileged with as little compassion.

Some cooperation between the public and the private sector could go a long way.


----------



## ian

CiderBear said:


> Honestly though, a lot of homeless people are homeless because of mental illness and they cannot (read: refuse to) stay inside. They will destroy that hotel room if you put them in it, and possibly endanger staff.
> 
> I'm all for converting hotel rooms into *something* (makeshift hospitals, quarantine zones for cruise ships, domestic violence shelters, temporary residence for doctors and nurses and other frontline workers so they don't put their families at risk, housing for traveling nurses, etc), just don't think homeless camps are a good use for them.



Hmm, not sure I'm comfortable speaking for the homeless in full generality here. Maybe some of them have a fear of confinement, but I've known a couple people that were homeless when they were kids, and I don't think they would say that they wanted to live on the streets.


----------



## Michi

ian said:


> HC = hydroxychloroquine
> C = chloroquine


Ah, of course.

I agree, we have way too little data at this point.

If this turns out to be the miracle cure, that would be awesome. I won’t be holding my breath though. We’d have to be insanely lucky for things to be as simple as that.


----------



## CiderBear

ian said:


> Hmm, not sure I'm comfortable speaking for the homeless in full generality here. Maybe some of them have a fear of confinement, but I've known a couple people that were homeless when they were kids, and I don't think they would say that they wanted to live on the streets.



That's why I said domestic violence shelters. A lot of people can't safely stay home with their kids during shelter-in-place orders, unfortunately.


----------



## Bert2368

Back in the 1980s, the several Republican administrations took steps which resulted in our chronically mentally ill population being de institutionalized (they put them out on the streets and quit offering inpatient care to) just about all the non violent CMI people in USA to save money they thought would be better spent on the military and tax cuts to big investors and wealthy campaign donors. "Read my taxes, no more lips".

The Democrats went along with it because they conned themselves into thinking such people needed "freedom" from being involuntarily or voluntarily institutionalized more than a place to live and effective care. 

I watched it happen. The people who formerly lived in an institution just North of where I went to college were suddenly wandering the streets and Capitol square talking to themselves and swapping their meds with eachother, they re-named one of the local drug stores where they hung out at the soda fountain after their old common room at the institution.

From there, the rest of the measures taken to bring the USA's work force to heel (globalization, outsourcing, NAFTA, maquiladora factories) added to the homeless population. 

There are a fair number of CMI people on the streets. If you weren't when you got put on the street, it's not uncommon to end up that way after a while.


----------



## WildBoar

Michi said:


> The US is one of the richest countries (if not _the_ richest country) on earth. I honestly cannot think of any other first-world country that treats its poor and under-privileged with as little compassion.
> 
> Some cooperation between the public and the private sector could go a long way.


As usual, it is a lot more complicated than that. I wrote more, but deleted it.


----------



## ian

CiderBear said:


> That's why I said domestic violence shelters. A lot of people can't safely stay home with their kids during shelter-in-place orders, unfortunately.



Sure, but not everyone who doesn't have a home (and doesn't have a fear of confinement or something) is a victim of domestic violence either. It's all good, though. I agree this is a hard problem. I just didn't want to have it out there that noone who's sleeping in the parking lot would benefit from an actual room.



Bert2368 said:


> Back in the 1980s, the several Republican administrations took steps which resulted in our chronically mentally ill population being de institutionalized (they put them out on the streets and quit offering inpatient care to) just about all the non violent CMI people in USA to save money they thought would be better spent on the military and tax cuts to big investors and wealthy campaign donors. "Read my taxes, no more lips".
> 
> The Democrats went along with it because they conned themselves into thinking such people needed "freedom" from being involuntarily or voluntarily institutionalized more than a place to live and effective care.
> 
> I watched it happen. The people who formerly lived in an institution just North of where I went to college were suddenly wandering the streets and Capitol square talking to themselves and swapping their meds with eachother, they re-named one of the local drug stores where they hung out at the soda fountain after their old common room at the institution.
> 
> From there, the rest of the measures taken to bring the USA's work force to heel (globalization, outsourcing, NAFTA, maquiladora factories) added to the homeless population.
> 
> There are a fair number of CMI people on the streets. If you weren't when you got put on the street, it's not uncommon to end up that way after a while.



Yea, it's pretty heartbreaking.


----------



## Matus

... guys, keep the politics out please ...


----------



## M1k3

CiderBear said:


> Honestly though, a lot of homeless people are homeless because of mental illness and they cannot (read: refuse to) stay inside. They will destroy that hotel room if you put them in it, and possibly endanger staff.
> 
> I'm all for converting hotel rooms into *something* (makeshift hospitals, quarantine zones for cruise ships, domestic violence shelters, temporary residence for doctors and nurses and other frontline workers so they don't put their families at risk, housing for traveling nurses, etc), just don't think homeless camps are a good use for them.



Can confirm some don't want to be inside/confined. My mom was mentally ill and couldn't handle living in a place with other mentally ill people. She decided to live in a motorhome. Then she could move away from bad "neighbors". I also understand that this isn't the case for everyone. Everything from drugs, to losing everything because the economy and banks. And everything in between.


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> Homeless people in Las Vegas bed down for the night, in marked areas that maintain minimum distance in a parking lot



Wow... very sad. On the one hand, homeless shelters are underfunded and have been stripped to the bone - they aren't resourced well enough to handle an (epi/pan)demic. It probably is better to shutdown the facility rather than let it operate as a petri dish. On the other... a parking lot with painted squares is far from adequate.

You would think a humane program for the homeless wouldnt even be 'rounding error' when $2.2T is being bandied about.

Yikes. Poor people...


----------



## M1k3

It's dehumanizing also.


----------



## Bert2368

Here and there, heartwarming stories which restore your hope for the human race:



> In Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro flouted the government’s recommendation to stay indoors, and gangs in Rio de Janeiro enforced their own lockdown. “If the government won’t do the right thing, organized crime will,” their official statement read.



https://harpers.org/2020/03/rikers-island-covid-cases-orban-pollution/

Who knew Brazilian organized crime in Rio had an official spokesperson?

Caution is temporary 
Viral Infection lingers 
Stay indoor folks 
Or we break your fingers


----------



## VICTOR J CREAZZI

Is it my imagination, or is traffic way down on the forums?


----------



## ian

New membership seems way up. Or at least, that's my completely uninformed impression from seeing lots of new member posts yesterday/today.


----------



## McMan

VICTOR J CREAZZI said:


> Is it my imagination, or is traffic way down on the forums?


No phone app anymore... unless something else is going on?


----------



## ian

I do alternately find it hard to think about knives (what with all the childcare and the lack of time to do my real work and the obsessing over the news) and then hard to think about anything but knives.

Now I'm convinced I need to spend >$400 on a ~250mm suji, even though I'm sure I'd hardly ever use it. Not many big cuts of protein to portion in this house, unfortunately. I bet the knife would average out to like $1 per cut over the first year or two.


----------



## thermophile

Seriously tho, I've been taking calls for myself doh since this nonsense started. And not a single day goes by that some one doesn't call demanding to speak with the governor with some homeopathic cure. It's really agrevating because I'm on a virus information hotline and I'm trying to help sick people get tested not field cures from the mentally deficient. ( This was supposed to be a reply. Lol)


----------



## Matus

@thermophile be strong, it must be tough on the hotline. There are always people who will call in just to share their nonsense theory or want to preach about the bleach, or some other cure. You are doing a very important job.


----------



## thermophile

Matus said:


> @thermophile be strong, it must be tough on the hotline. There are always people who will call in just to share their nonsense theory or want to preach about the bleach, or some other cure. You are doing a very important job.


Thanks, I appreciate it. It's not too difficult tbh, mostly tedious. It's all such a mess.


----------



## HRC_64

Quick update re:HydroxyChloroquine

MDs either are clearly idiots and don't know anything about medical trials work, or on the contrary, they understandind RCT data is simply unavailable for large swathes of medical conditions and they are trained to use clinical judgement in the context of imperfect information.

>NYT - Published March 24, 2020
>States Say Some Doctors Stockpile Trial Coronavirus Drugs, *for Themselves *
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/business/doctors-buying-coronavirus-drugs.html


Translation:

"there is no [evidence] this works"
"there is no [scientific] evidence this works
"there is no [RCT ] evidence this works
<you are now here>
"OK there is no [GOOD quality] evidence this works
[still waiting for this]


----------



## HRC_64

One week later...31 March, 2020

First decent RCTs are out today...
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/31/comparing-chloroquine-trials



> As for adverse events, neither trial reported anything serious...for now hydroxychloroquine is in the “...might do some good” category, which under the current conditions seems sufficient for treating patients.... You will notice that we are not exactly in the “total cure” category that the Marseilles group has been putting itself in, but....


----------



## HRC_64

Curioulsy, revisions/stealth edits that now appear to Washington post's version of the NY Times article from last week...
WAPO-March 23, 2020 at 2:02 PM EDT
>https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...t-supplies-an-unproven-coronavirus-treatment/

1) *As [POTUS] touts an unproven coronavirus treatment, supplies evaporate for patients who need those drugs *
2) *Lack of definitive evidence has not stopped exploding demand for chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine*
3) *A run on [...?...] anti-malaria drugs chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine has wiped out supply of potential coronavirus treatment *


----------



## Dave Martell




----------



## Nemo

HRC_64 said:


> One week later...31 March, 2020
> 
> First decent RCTs are out today...
> https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/31/comparing-chloroquine-trials


Note while that these 2 trials did not have any serous side effects, they are small trials. There are a total of 231 in the treatment arms (the patients actually receiving the drug) across the 2 trials. This may be enough patients to detect a thrapeutic efffect if the effect is large, but probably not if the effect is small. It certainly is not enough to detect uncommon but catastrophic side effects. The statistcians would say that the trials are not powered do detect those side effects.


----------



## pistachio

HRC_64 said:


> One week later...31 March, 2020
> First decent RCTs are out today...
> https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/31/comparing-chloroquine-
> trials
> 
> 
> 
> for now hydroxychloroquine is in the “...might do some good” category, which under the current conditions seems sufficient for treating patients
Click to expand...


The Zhejiang study was out a week ago, and found no difference between the groups. Quite small numbers and a strong response in the control group make it difficult to conclude much one way or the other. The new data is the Wuhan study, which managed to enroll more people, and they seem to be showing at least some benefit to treatment. It's still a very small study and the effect looks to be a long way from a cure, but hopefully it holds up. The only way we're going to find out is with larger controlled studies.

Also, I think you left out a very important part of a sentence you quoted from the Pipeline post, which changes the meaning. The actual quote is (emphasis added in bold):


> So as long as such patients [with cardiac arrhythmias] are excluded, for now hydroxychloroquine is in the “*might do nothing,* might do some good” category, which under the current conditions seems sufficient for treating patients, pending further data.


----------



## HRC_64

Here's another one...Wed 25 Mar 2020 00.26 EDT

*Australian doctors warned off after prescribing potentially deadly Covid-19 trial drug to themselves *


> Drugs regulator cracks down on ability to prescribe anti-malarial hydroxychloroquine





> Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine have potentially severe and even deadly side effects if used inappropriately, including heart failure and toxicity. Some Australian media outlets have wrongly reported the drug as a “cure” for the virus even though trials have been either inconclusive or too small to be useful, have only been conducted in test tubes, are not yet complete, or have not even received ethics approval.



Genuinely puzzled if they think reporters know this and doctors are too dumb to figure it out?


----------



## Luftmensch

Yeah... I am not sure if I can even ask, because I think the answer is political... but: why is hydroxychloroquine being spruiked as the 'duck's nuts'?

One of Australia's politicians* is being investigated by the TGA for this...


* Australia has a fairly egalitarian election system. Historically, the number of cases where a person has 'bought' their way into parliament is extremely low. The politician being investigated is one of those rare cases: A mining magnate who has the resources to throw large some of money at marketing.


----------



## Geigs

This is potentially very promising. Paper detailing how viral proteins hijack hemoglobin and expel the Fe leading to hypoxia and death. Also explains why some of the drugs being used seem to work, and proposes a blood transfusion could be curative in combination with said drugs.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1244717172871409666.html


----------



## Bert2368

Geigs said:


> This is potentially very promising. Paper detailing how viral proteins hijack hemoglobin and expel the Fe leading to hypoxia and death. Also explains why some of the drugs being used seem to work, and proposes a blood transfusion could be curative in combination with said drugs.
> 
> https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1244717172871409666.html



How much blood per patient? 

How many patients? 

What is the world blood bank supply like in relation to the product of those two numbers?


----------



## Geigs

Bert2368 said:


> How much blood per patient?
> 
> How many patients?
> 
> What is the world blood bank supply like in relation to the product of those two numbers?



No idea, I'm a PhD not an MD so the blood banks are not my area of expertise. Enough blood to maintain O2 saturation within acceptable bounds.


----------



## pistachio

Geigs said:


> This is potentially very promising. Paper detailing how viral proteins hijack hemoglobin and expel the Fe leading to hypoxia and death. Also explains why some of the drugs being used seem to work, and proposes a blood transfusion could be curative in combination with said drugs.
> 
> https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1244717172871409666.html



It's not clear to me how this is supposed to work. There are a few hundred million hemoglobin molecules per red blood cell. Mature red blood cells also don't have the machinery for the virus to replicate itself, and as far as I can tell don't have surface expression of ACE2 to facilitate entry. Heck, it seems like it might even be beneficial if RBCs could soak up a ton of virus and hold onto it. 

It's not an area where I have expertise, but my impression is that in silico docking or binding prediction works best with more precise structures, like crystal structures. Homology models can be fine, but generally as you start layering assumptions (the homology model makes some assumptions, then in the molecular docking there are usually assumptions on several levels) the output becomes much less accurate and less useful.


----------



## Bert2368

Frankly, we are grasping at straws. I too hope one of them will be the correct straw.

People are really good at finding patterns, so good, we more than occasionally will discern what we are sure is a meaningful pattern and form a hypothesis which while self consistent, doesn't happen to be correct. If you recognize such as an hypothesis (as opposed to a personal revelation of God's own truth) and can find a way to properly test it, a negative finding is (scientifically speaking) just as valid and potentially as useful in finding a way forward as a positive one- Even if it feels disappointing at the time.

I saw results of a study some years back where the psychologist who ran it took many microphotographs of individual cells and showed them to people pre screened as having no background in cellular biology or medicine, telling them that these were pictures of cancerous cells and asking them to write a brief explanation of what was visibly wrong with the cell in each picture which allowed the diagnosis of cancer. Participants were initially told that the purpose of the study was on how to to better perform diagnosis in oncology

All the photos were of healthy cells.

The study was actually on how people's minds find patterns in information, develop theories and justify them to themselves and others in the absence of sufficient information or background experience to actually do this properly. Which people do constantly... see here for a fresh example:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/man-tried-to-derail-train-to-wreck-navy-hospital-ship-mercy-over-coronavirus-suspicions-feds-say/2339287/?amp

One of the most interest findings (to me) was that the higher the verbal intelligence of a participant, the more self consistent and convincing their explanations were- But obviously, not the more correct.


----------



## M1k3

Bert2368 said:


> Frankly, we are grasping at straws. I too hope one of them will be the correct straw.
> 
> People are really good at finding patterns, so good, we more than occasionally will discern what we are sure is a meaningful pattern and form a hypothesis which while self consistent, doesn't happen to be correct. If you recognize such as an hypothesis (as opposed to a personal revelation of God's own truth) and can find a way to properly test it, a negative finding is (scientifically speaking) just as valid and potentially as useful in finding a way forward as a positive one- Even if it feels disappointing at the time.
> 
> I saw results of a study some years back where the psychologist who ran it took many microphotographs of individual cells and showed them to people pre screened as having no background in cellular biology or medicine, telling them that these were pictures of cancerous cells and asking them to write a brief explanation of what was visibly wrong with the cell in each picture which allowed the diagnosis of cancer. Participants were initially told that the purpose of the study was on how to to better perform diagnosis in oncology
> 
> All the photos were of healthy cells.
> 
> The study was actually on how people's minds find patterns in information, develop theories and justify them to themselves and others in the absence of sufficient information or background experience to actually do this properly. Which people do constantly... see here for a fresh example:
> 
> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/man-tried-to-derail-train-to-wreck-navy-hospital-ship-mercy-over-coronavirus-suspicions-feds-say/2339287/?amp
> 
> One of the most interest findings (to me) was that the higher the verbal intelligence of a participant, the more self consistent and convincing their explanations were- But obviously, not the more correct.




That guy caused such a commotion. Helicopters everywhere. And the train didn't get very far from the tracks....


----------



## milkbaby

Bert2368 said:


> Frankly, we are grasping at straws. I too hope one of them will be the correct straw.
> 
> People are really good at finding patterns, so good, we more than occasionally will discern what we are sure is a meaningful pattern and form a hypothesis which while self consistent, doesn't happen to be correct. If you recognize such as an hypothesis (as opposed to a personal revelation of God's own truth) and can find a way to properly test it, a negative finding is (scientifically speaking) just as valid and potentially as useful in finding a way forward as a positive one- Even if it feels disappointing at the time.
> 
> I saw results of a study some years back where the psychologist who ran it took many microphotographs of individual cells and showed them to people pre screened as having no background in cellular biology or medicine, telling them that these were pictures of cancerous cells and asking them to write a brief explanation of what was visibly wrong with the cell in each picture which allowed the diagnosis of cancer. Participants were initially told that the purpose of the study was on how to to better perform diagnosis in oncology
> 
> All the photos were of healthy cells.
> 
> The study was actually on how people's minds find patterns in information, develop theories and justify them to themselves and others in the absence of sufficient information or background experience to actually do this properly.



Apologies for the off topic digression...

In my opinion, the ability of humans to recognize patterns and use them as a model to predict the future was probably the greatest evolutionary advantage of our species. However, often our greatest strengths can also be our greatest weakness: perhaps seeing a pattern that leads to an incorrect prediction like say being a racist, a misogynist, or whatever other generalized way of thinking based on a very limited and filtered data set (i.e. ignoring data that doesn't fit the perceived pattern).

There is a theory of consciousness that the mind is a prediction machine and constructs consciousness through prediction: https://www.npr.org/transcripts/654730916 or look up Anil Seth's TED talk.

And I agree negative results are useful, just possibly not as immediately useful as positive ones.


----------



## lowercasebill

The latest research from Japan on micro droplets. This is worth the 6 minutes of your time. 
Be safe


----------



## WildBoar

I honestly can't believe they were not concerned about anything but coughs and sneezes until now. When I was in the grocery store the other day I could not believe that people were walking down the aisles while talking on their phones, with their faces pointed towards the people who were walking by from the other direction. It did not seem like a stretch for something to be transmitted across that short distance when people were talking/ blowing air out of their mouths in a manner more forceful then regular breathing while at rest.


----------



## lowercasebill

I watch the neighbors out the Window talking to repair men and each other. No social distancing at all.


----------



## Kippington




----------



## lowercasebill

Wow that was distressing and depressing


----------



## Luftmensch

lowercasebill said:


> Wow that was distressing and depressing



Very... 

It is going to happen in NY on a smaller scale as well...

... upsetting times


----------



## lowercasebill

Very


----------



## Nemo

lowercasebill said:


> The latest research from Japan on micro droplets. This is worth the 6 minutes of your time.
> Be safe



This is often called aerosilisation. It's a much bigger problem during airway management than during day to day interactions. It's one of the big reasons that the person intubating someone in respiratory failure is taking a huge risk upon themselves. And indeed, their family. They need that PPE.


----------



## Bert2368

.


----------



## HRC_64

WildBoar said:


> I honestly can't believe they were not concerned about anything but coughs and sneezes until now.



AFAIK, Its been a concern at least since February that this Covid-19 is possibly way more dangerous than the usual flu. 
This study was published/publiscised in early March, and then retracted immediately afterwards, but the story is intersting





https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...vel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay
Notice the public health implications here (comments highlighted)


> Dr Shixiong and colleagues wrote: 'It can be confirmed that in a closed environment with air-conditioning, the transmission distance of the new coronavirus will exceed the commonly recognised safe distance.
> 'The possible reason is that in a completely enclosed space, the airflow is mainly driven by the hot air generated by the air conditioning. The rise of the hot air can transport the virus-laden droplets to a greater distance.
> '*When riding on more closed public transportation such as subways, cars, planes, etc, you should wear a mask all the time*, and at the same time, minimise the contact between your hands and public areas, and avoid touching your face before cleaning.


Now notice the "no-notice" retraction of the study the next day


> The journal Practical Preventive Medicine retracted the study on March 10. No reason was given.


Curiously, the "evidence" for this behavioural obervation study included CCTV/surveilance video allowing better than usual certainty about the interaction of the passengers.


> Patient A took a four-hour bus ride, and CCTV allowed researchers to analyse the path of his germs from where he sat near the back.


In the USA we've now suddenly seen the light on the wisdowm of face masking ...
Interesting times...


----------



## chinacats

Found this an interesting read even though i didn't understand all of it...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...virus-genome-bad-news-wrapped-in-protein.html


----------



## Marek07

chinacats said:


> Found this an interesting read even though i didn't understand all of it...
> 
> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...virus-genome-bad-news-wrapped-in-protein.html


My liddle brain didn't understand _any _of it beyond the first few sentences.


----------



## NBrewster

That's a great NYT article. Nice primer on viruses.

I'm finally over it, though my partner is only just starting to get her smell back. She lost it almost 3 weeks ago now.

I still have a cough, figure it will probably take weeks or months for lungs to fully recover. crazy illness. I now know a couple of people who have lost loved ones, one in UK and one in NY.

Testing in NY is better now but still lousy. A friend in the FDNY was sick and couldn't get tested so a nurse friend stole a test and submitted it (he was positive).

Our federal response here has been so incompetent that it should be criminal. But alas it is not illegal here to be bad at your job as an elected official.


----------



## rocketman

Interestingly, the NYT is ignoring the mayor, and health commissioner, of NY city during the early stages of this viral issue telling everyone just to go out, do your normal things, hang out in China town live your normal life. It is not only federal response, but local that is totally incompetent.


----------



## rocketman

In fact take a look at this video of the comments described above;
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?pli=1#inbox/FMfcgxwHMjkxPRjKzNJSSdgHJZflxtTq


----------



## Michi

rocketman said:


> In fact take a look at this video of the comments described above;
> https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?pli=1#inbox/FMfcgxwHMjkxPRjKzNJSSdgHJZflxtTq


You can link to an email in your inbox, but other people won't be able to look at it. Probably best to copy and paste whatever content is relevant.


----------



## Bert2368

rocketman said:


> In fact take a look at this video of the comments described above;
> https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?pli=1#inbox/FMfcgxwHMjkxPRjKzNJSSdgHJZflxtTq


All I get is something asking me to join gmail?

-----
Spent about 45 minutes on the phone with my cousin, our last family member left living in NY, NY (My mom was a Brooklyn girl, transplanted to the midwest after WWII).

He said about the only people he sees on the street are the garbage men or few people walking alone or in pairs. And in front of food stores, lines of people standing 6' or more apart waiting to go in when someone else comes out in order to keep total number inside at any time low. THEY wear masks. New Yorkers know better than to believe politicians or their "paper of record".

I went to a Walmart in rural MN Saturday am. Wore an N95 mask. Saw maybe 20% of the workers wearing masks, they seemed happy I was too. Less than 10% of shoppers were using any type of PPE, saw one guy who just pulled his T-shirt neck up over the lower half of his face as he walked in the door! A few were trying to maintain 6' space. More were behaving normally and not bothering. This hasn't got real for THEM yet. Heard at least one loudly talking about how it's all a hoax.

No officially diagnosed cases in this county yet but there are in some counties to the N, S, W (and East in WI) plus a whole constellation of cases in Northern MN and WI from MN metro counties/Madison/Milwaukee/IL/IA people deciding to isolate by going up North to the Summer cabin in mid March and waiting this out. That Walmart is right by the major N-S highway (I-35) to the NE MN vacation areas or North shore of Lake Superior, many deer hunter and "summer people" heading North stop there for supplies as it is last one right by highway going North?!

A TON of people coming from MNs most heavily infected metro counties have stopped there last few weeks to stock up when headed North- Some of whom became symptomatic out in the sticks a little later. I can make the connection but Sven, Ole and Lena seem to be a bit slower.


----------



## Michi

I went shopping yesterday. Given how easily CV can spread via droplets, and speculation from reputable people that it might—at least in part—infect people as an aerosol, I dug out a mask I've used a few times for spray painting and the like. It's the only one available to me. (You couldn't buy a face mask of any description right now in Australia, even if you were prepared to pay for its weight in gold.)



It's really fetching, don't you think? After all, it hides a little over half of my face 

I was looking forward to all the stares I'd get at the supermarket showing up in that outfit. And what a let-down that was. In fact, no-one batted an eyelid seeing me walk through the shopping centre like this. That, all by itself, says a lot about how quickly things have changed, doesn't it?


----------



## Matus

I have an unanswered question about the micro droplets that are small enough to stay in air for many minutes. As a physicist I would expect these to dry out under a minute - leaving the organic gunk behind. Would this be relevant for the virus transfer?


----------



## daveb

In NYC you would probably get rolled for that much protection.


----------



## Michi

Matus said:


> I have an unanswered question about the micro droplets that are small enough to stay in air for many minutes. As a physicist I would expect these to dry out under a minute - leaving the organic gunk behind. Would this be relevant for the virus transfer?


Interesting question. Once a droplet gets down to 5 micron or less, gravity basically doesn't affect it anymore. It'll drift with the air currents without necessarily ending up on the floor. Presumably, the droplet eventually evaporates completely. The virus particles inside would continue to drift with the air currents; I have no idea how long the virus stays viable without a substrate that provides moisture.

The commonly quoted time of three hours for survival on cardboard suggests that, even under sub-optimal conditions, the virus can hang around for a few hours. Meaning that the aerosolised virus could potentially be a risk for quite a while once the droplet around it has evaporated. (I have to emphasise here that I'm hypothesising; there is no data either way at this point, as far as I know.)

I'll continue to wear that silly mask when I have to go out. It's better to be ridiculous than it is to be dead.


----------



## Bert2368

Matus said:


> I have an unanswered question about the micro droplets that are small enough to stay in air for many minutes. As a physicist I would expect these to dry out under a minute - leaving the organic gunk behind. Would this be relevant for the virus transfer?



Repeated studies have shown virus is capable of surviving in viable form for 1 to 3 days after droplets dry up on many common surfaces such as plastic, stainless steel, wood, cardboard, paper. Viability does go down with time, exposure to UV light, Oxygen, high or low ph conditions & some metals (Copper and Silver in particular speed up deactivation).

In wet body fluids, faeces or untreated sewage, viability may be over a week.

Short answer, drying up is (eventually) hard on the virus but not quickly enough to help much.


----------



## Dave Martell

What about the eyes?


----------



## Matus

Dave Martell said:


> What about the eyes?



If your eyes come out while coughing I don’t think they will stay up in air all that long


----------



## Matus

Seriously - yes, eyes are a very real point of entry for the virus.


----------



## NBrewster

rocketman said:


> Interestingly, the NYT is ignoring the mayor, and health commissioner, of NY city during the early stages of this viral issue telling everyone just to go out, do your normal things, hang out in China town live your normal life. It is not only federal response, but local that is totally incompetent.



Local here has been mixed but this is typically the kind of problem the federal government directs.

Local officials typically act on guidance from the federal government for disease outbreaks.I the federal guidance is slow or bad or wrong, it's politically pretty hard to ignore federal guidelines and go your own way.

It's like if your CEO tells you to do something that seems like a bad idea to you. Unless it is obviously a terrible idea you are almost certainly still going to do it. 

International transmission of disease and testing of a brand new disease are federal issues that states have stepped up to solve on their own because the federal government is absconding from it's duty. That's why it's the focus.


----------



## WildBoar

The US is States first. Sadly that has been diluted a lot over the years, with some States relying on the Federal Gov't to give them a lot of money. That's they way the country was set up, and is intended to operate. Everyone wants to pass the buck on 'responsibility'. The fact is the US really hasn't done any worse than any other 1st world country that sees a lot of business and tourist travel. And some have much higher death rates per confirmed cases (France is close to 10%, Italy closer to 14%).


----------



## Chef Doom

All you need really is a loaded shotgun, a freezer full of meat, a tub full of water and plenty of entertainment.


----------



## WildBoar

I think all you need is the loaded shotgun, and you can use it go get the other stuff from your neighbors whenever you need something


----------



## NBrewster

States like mine (NY) subsidize a lot of the states that like to claim personal responsibility. I'd happily see a real movement for state control and less federal spending. But that's not the world we live in.

States also cannot legally bar interstate commerce or the free movement of people between states, so in the case of a pandemic you kind of need a federal response.


----------



## WildBoar

I'm not sure closing borders between states would accomplish anything in areas where major population centers straddle two or more states (around here it's Virginia, Maryland and DC -- you cannot isolate those areas from each other because so many people with essential jobs live in one and work in the other). If the concept is you keep people from NYC from being able to flee all over the country, bringing the virus with them, then it is an okay concept. But you cannot enforce that in a free country.


----------



## labor of love

Texas issued a 14 day Self quarantine order for Louisiana residents that cross the border. And they set up Corona screening Checkpoints. Seems unenforceable realistically. But the traffic back ups are supposedly really bad. I guess the point is to deter as many as possible from traveling.


----------



## HRC_64

NBrewster said:


> States also cannot legally bar interstate commerce or the free movement of people between states, so in the case of a pandemic you kind of need a federal response.



The Feds wanted to quarantine NYC and New york local politicians (governor, mayor) wouldn't enforce it. They agreed to a non-mandatory travel advisory in stead.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/28/trump-new-york-quarantine-coronavirus-152812

Many of these cities/jurisdictions are notably "Sanctuary Cities" under local laws and don't respectpre-existing laws already in place regading the migrantion of peoples accross federal and local borders (eg immigration).


----------



## HRC_64

labor of love said:


> Texas issued a 14 day Self quarantine order for Louisiana residents that cross the border. And they set up Corona screening Checkpoints. Seems unenforceable realistically. But the traffic back ups are supposedly really bad. I guess the point is to deter as many as possible from traveling.



Same thing in florida with new yorkers. Also in Rhode Island, again with new yorkers.


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> It's really fetching, don't you think?



Very du jour!


I did a shop this weekend and saw a woman in a half-mask respirator . Similarly.... no one batted an eyelid!


----------



## chinacats

I just came by to check in...sounds like folks are getting a bit grumpy/stir crazy so being that's usually my role, I'll just be sending everyone a positive vibe and wish all a better day tomorrow

Cheers


----------



## podzap

The whole "people don't need masks" stories that came from WHO, governments, etc was nothing but ******** and I knew it. All the nurses pasting freaking essays on facebook about how people don't know how to wear masks anyway - blue-collar parroting of political lies and misinformation. All the people sharing, retweeting, etc the misinformation because their own brain lacks critical thinking - this is why I am anti-social. For real.

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/02/825200206/doctors-say-hospitals-are-stopping-them-from-wearing-masks


----------



## Michi

podzap said:


> https://www.npr.org/2020/04/02/825200206/doctors-say-hospitals-are-stopping-them-from-wearing-masks


That's quite some story!

I guess this is what you get when there is no over-arching co-ordinated plan for dealing with a pandemic, when states and hospitals can individually set their own strategy, when it is legally impossible for states to close their borders, and when the messaging from different levels of government is contradictory.

We _know_ what happens when the virus is allowed to spread. Plenty of instructional examples around: USA, Italy, Spain, Germany, France, etc. And yet, a lot of people still think that denial will make the problem go away, even past the point where it has become bleedingly obvious that inaction is causing a catastrophe.


----------



## NBrewster

Honestly I think a lot of the anti-mask stuff is partially racist. 

Asians have worn masks when they're sick for decades. Chinese and Japanese research has shown that wearing a mask massively decreases risk of spreading illnesses that are transmitted through droplets and coughing and yet it remains an "asian" thing rather than just common decency here in the US. 

Doctor friend of mine who sews started knocking out reusable masks to distribute to friends the first week of March (of course I was infected by then ). And said... WE ALL NEED TO DO WHAT ASIA DOES.

Yet our president and many local leaders STILL don't want to push mask wearing hard. Crazy, crazy.


----------



## Bill13

NBrewster said:


> Honestly I think a lot of the anti-mask stuff is partially racist.
> 
> Asians have worn masks when they're sick for decades. Chinese and Japanese research has shown that wearing a mask massively decreases risk of spreading illnesses that are transmitted through droplets and coughing and yet it remains an "asian" thing rather than just common decency here in the US.
> 
> Doctor friend of mine who sews started knocking out reusable masks to distribute to friends the first week of March (of course I was infected by then ). And said... WE ALL NEED TO DO WHAT ASIA DOES.
> 
> Yet our president and many local leaders STILL don't want to push mask wearing hard. Crazy, crazy.



I feel uncomfortable calling out those not wearing masks as racists. For me I worry it makes me less attractive.


----------



## NBrewster

Sorry I don't think the general public is racist. I think the reluctance or disregard of masks as a viable ( and very low cost) public health concern by officials is rooted in racism. I think most people in the US don't wear the masks because they have never been taught or told to do so and for no other reason.


----------



## Bill13

NBrewster said:


> Sorry I don't think the general public is racist. I think the reluctance or disregard of masks as a viable ( and very low cost) public health concern by officials is rooted in racism. I think most people in the US don't wear the masks because they have never been taught or told to do so and for no other reason.



Agreed. Plus our history as a country shows that we don't react well to being told what to do by the government.


----------



## Bert2368

And some of us are ignorant, deluded and more than a little crazy?


----------



## Lars

I went shopping for groceries the other say and was the only one with a mask.


----------



## NBrewster

The stuff in Louisiana is crazy. I believe they have some of the highest infection rates in the country per capita and it's not 1/4 as dense as NYC. Just enormous failures at all levels of government and community leadership.


----------



## bkultra

Leave out the politics, deleted the last two posts.


----------



## WildBoar

NBrewster said:


> The stuff in Louisiana is crazy. I believe they have some of the highest infection rates in the country per capita and it's not 1/4 as dense as NYC. Just enormous failures at all levels of government and community leadership.


and people. Big failure of actual individual people to ignore what has been happening all around the world.


----------



## NBrewster

bkultra said:


> Leave out the politics, deleted the last two posts.


Thought that was just an objective fact, not politics. But will hold my tung moving forward.


----------



## M1k3

Can't talk about ineptitude of leadership handling Coronavirus in a non-political way?

I'm not trying to be argumentative. Just trying to see where I crossed the line.


----------



## Kippington

Generally speaking, people in Western countries relate face-covering with strongly negative emotions or traits - Wearers appear be hiding something, or are sometimes hostile.

Think of celebs trying to hide from photographers, violent protesters in masks, the Islamic burqa, robbers wearing balaclavas, etc.

Some other cultures don't have such strong predispositions to face-covering, but I don't expect it to catch on so well in Western countries, if history is anything to go by. *It's not like this kind of thing hasn't happened before*.


----------



## WildBoar

I have typically associated the wearing of face masks with the pollution in some of the massive cities.


----------



## daveb

NBrewster said:


> Thought that was just an objective fact, not politics. But will hold my tung moving forward.





M1k3 said:


> Can't talk about ineptitude of leadership handling Coronavirus in a non-political way?
> 
> I'm not trying to be argumentative. Just trying to see where I crossed the line.



I'm sure it doesn't help clarity that the mod team has been especially lenient regarding posts in the Corno threads. Much of what has been posted here is bumping the "no politics" rules and has been allowed to stand. But trying to attribute this mess to either party or any individual is crossing the line. Even the new and improved line.

I will be glad to agree with you about ineptitude of leadership on reddit or a host of other venues. But we might disagree as to which leadership that applies to.


----------



## M1k3

In my eyes, anyone in a position of authority dropping the ball, no matter their political affiliation, isn't helping and showing ineptitude. But I will keep politics out of it.


----------



## Matus

When it comes to covering your mouth with a surgical(-like) mask - I find this study very interesting:



Sidenote - I never understoon how wearing a surgical-style mask should be of any relevant help against smog or air pollution. But as shown in the video - maks helps to stop spitting large dopplets while coughing or sneezing.

WHO updated today their recommendation on wearing a mask - but they still say that the primary (only?) reason is to protect others if you cough or sneeze. Plus you also avoid accidentally touching your face.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...lthy-to-wear-face-masks-says-who-after-review


----------



## ian

I was wearing a homemade mask this afternoon when I went out for a walk with my son in a sparsely populated (at least, with living people) local cemetery. Not sure what the point was.... neither of us is coughing or sneezing. But it seems to be the thing to do in my neighborhood, which is for the best, I'm sure. So I guess that's the point. If everyone's doing it, then everyone is more likely to do it.


----------



## NBrewster

Matus said:


> Sidenote - I never understoon how wearing a surgical-style mask should be of any relevant help against smog or air pollution.



It's only marginally helpful but it's more than nothing. Not sure if you've ever been to one of the cities with just absolutely horrendous air quality, but it's literally "thick" with pollution. I spent 6 months in New Delhi, I only wore a mask on a couple of really bad days (you literally could not see across an avenue in some areas) and if you wore a mask it would be black around your mouth after wearing it for a few hours. That's "some" air pollution getting filtered out.

Regardless I still had a hacking cough for about 4 months after I got back. I don't know how people survive there long term.


----------



## Michi

Reported by (Australian) ABC News today:

_"Wearing face masks is now mandatory in Morocco for anyone allowed to go out during the coronavirus outbreak.

Those who fail to comply face prison sentences of up to three months and a fine of up to 1,300 dirhams ($572), the Government said in a statement on Monday.

The masks will be sold at a subsidised price of 0.8 dirhams ($0.35) per unit.

Morocco plans to increase its daily mask production capacity to near 6 million next week from 3.3 million currently.

Morocco, which has imposed a month-long lockdown, confirmed as of Monday 1,120 coronavirus cases and 80 deaths."_

It seems to me that wearing a face mask might do some good, and that it is unlikely to make things worse.

The argument that, with a face mask, people are more likely to touch their face underneath the mask doesn't seem sound to me. On average, I would expect more infections to be prevented by face masks than to be caused.

Whether any difference is substantial enough to matter is difficult to say. I do notice though that medical professionals seem extremely keen to wear them and that they complain bitterly when they can't. Seeing that they are professionals, I'm inclined to trust them.


----------



## ian

Michi said:


> Seeing that they are professionals, I'm inclined to trust them.



Aaahh.


----------



## Neyxous

I was lucky enough to have one of those nifty canister respirators from some sand blasting i did. I kinda want to think its overkill, but better safe than sorry. It is so funny to get complements ... "Nice mask man, where did you get it?"


----------



## XooMG

In Taiwan there seem to be two common mentalities regarding masks. One is that you're protecting yourself, and evidence for that seems to be a bit shakier (like most places, there are many pseudoscientific practices and superstitions regarding health). Further, it might be a weaker motivator as the epidemic drags on and people get tired of negotiating between convenience and the feeling of personal safety.

The other popular driver is social and familial responsibility, and that seems to have slightly more influence long-term. If you go into a convenience store or crowded public place these days without the basic courtesy of shielding others from your dominant upper discharge, you'll be seen as a selfish, inconsiderate, skin-wrapped fecal sausage.

When outdoors, people are more heterogeneous in behaviour; some take masks off due to perceived lower risk, to reduce moisture buildup in the mask, or to make breathing easier. Others keep them on as a weak dust filter and mouth guard (especially when driving scooters)

If course this is just personal opinion; I haven't done the surveys and can't be very confident in my limited experience.


----------



## M1k3

Today Los Angeles implemented all essential, non-medical workers must wear non-medical grade masks at work and the employer must provide or reimburse employees for them.


----------



## Marek07

During the 1918 flu epidemic, many in the US were wearing masks.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/03/americas/flu-america-1918-masks-intl-hnk/index.html

The WHO and CDC have started to change their initial opposition to the public wearing masks and some European countries have already mandated them in public. I understand Los Angeles residents are being told to wear face covering in public places from Friday. I will continue wearing mine for the foreseeable future. Initially, it was to allay the fears of patients in the oncology and radiology wards while I had a persistent cough. Now I figure I'll continue wearing it because the benefits outweigh any negatives.


----------



## HRC_64

M1k3 said:


> ...non-medical grade masks ...



TLDR--nobody here is "following science" because perfect isn't possible.


----------



## HRC_64

Marek07 said:


> During the 1918 flu epidemic, many in the US were wearing masks.
> 
> https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/03/americas/flu-america-1918-masks-intl-hnk/index.html
> 
> The WHO and CDC have started to change their initial opposition to the public wearing masks ...



The reality is they F*cked up on the mask guidance back in january/february.

A LOT of that opposition is/was political and not based on science or research, so this is a good thing.

1) The WHO was worried about offending 3r world countries.
2) The FEDs were worried about low stockpiles
3) The LEOs were worried about law and order issues


----------



## Matus

I find the following interesting: 

Two German scientist analysed the available data and came to the conclusion that in total, only bout a6% of the infected people were identified with the tests. This percentage varies over the countries. They say that by now several tens of millions might have been infected worldwide. More details can be found here:

https://www.uni-goettingen.de/en/32...H2sa5I578P0FY_Gz4Qwve54T7gxlS0-PaY7_DHRk2n0PQ

Whether they are correct should be known in a few weeks as a large study of randomly selected households will be tested in Germany over longer period of time to see whether they have developed antibodies for the virus and will be tested several times over longer period of time.


----------



## Nemo

Once serology testing becomes widely available, it should shine another light on the actual incidence (assuming that everybody does mount an antibody response, which there is some evidence for).


----------



## WildBoar

I've read a lot of articles that mentions a pretty large mount of false negatives. I think it varies depending on the particular test (it seems there may be a lot of different ones out there, and they can vary from country to country.


----------



## Nemo

My understanding is that for PCR tests, the site of the sample is more important than the variability between test kits.

The detection rate for oropharyngeal (throat) swabs is c30%. That is, 70% false negative rate. For nasphayngeal (back of nose) swabs, it's c65% (35% FN). Unless you found these swabs quite uncomfortable, they didn't get back far enough and the detection rate will be lower. For sputum (which is hard to get because Covid produces a dry cough), sensitivity is over 80% and t's high 90s for bronco-alveolar lavage (BAL). BAL is a complicated procedure which requires bronchoscopy and temporarily impairs the oxygen transfer in an already sick patient. Bronchoscopy is aerosol generating procedure (AGP) with high risk of infecting the medical team, so you wouldn't do it without a really good reason in a patient with Covid. But the high detection rate does suggset that the false negatives have more to do with the site of sample collection than the sensitivity of the actual test kits.


----------



## parbaked

T


Nemo said:


> But the high detection rate does suggset that the false negatives have more to do with the site of sample collection than the sensitivity of the actual test kits.



Yes...my understanding is that the current test requires a really deep nasal probe with the swab to reach the detachable virus sample. If the swab probe isn't deep enough, you get a false negative. Hopefully the newer tests will have less invasive ways to obtain a usable sample...


----------



## Nemo

parbaked said:


> T
> 
> 
> Yes...my understanding is that the current test requires a really deep nasal probe with the swab to reach the detachable virus sample. If the swab probe isn't deep enough, you get a false negative. Hopefully the newer tests will have less invasive ways to obtain a usable sample...


Indeed, if you don't get to posterior nasopharyngeal wall (which is pretty uncomfortable), your detection rate will be even less than 65%. 65% is the best case scenario for a nasophayngeal swab.


----------



## bahamaroot

And when you are testing less than half of 1% of the population, like here in the States, it's truly difficult to get concrete numbers on what you're dealing with anyway.


----------



## WildBoar

Don't fool yourself -- it is not just in the US. Most countries only have the ability to test a small percentage.


----------



## turbochef422

My wife got tested. It took 13 days to get the results and she was positive. They said, “ well your pretty much over it so that’s good”. We aren’t allowed to go anywhere for 7 days after no symptoms. We were self quarantined with the restaurant closed for the time being anyway. She originally got tested because she woke up with pink eye after speaking at a conference in Vegas and the Dr said that’s one of the symptoms. That was close to a month ago so I think we are in the clear. We both felt like we were fighting something and super tired but no symptoms some people are going through. Thankfully.


----------



## Kippington

_


Nemo said:



pretty uncomfortable...nasophayngeal swab

Click to expand...

*"What I got, ya gotta get it, put it in you."* - Red Hot Chili Peppers_


----------



## WildBoar

turbochef422 said:


> My wife got tested. It took 13 days to get the results and she was positive. They said, “ well your pretty much over it so that’s good”. We aren’t allowed to go anywhere for 7 days after no symptoms. We were self quarantined with the restaurant closed for the time being anyway. She originally got tested because she woke up with pink eye after speaking at a conference in Vegas and the Dr said that’s one of the symptoms. That was close to a month ago so I think we are in the clear. We both felt like we were fighting something and super tired but no symptoms some people are going through. Thankfully.


Glad all seems okay.

One issue with people screaming for test, tests, tests is just what happened to your wife. By the time it is confirmed you have it you are almost all better (and sadly for some you may be dead). Until there is reliable testing that can be completed in 1-2 days in the volume needed the testing is just not all that critical.


----------



## Bert2368

WildBoar said:


> Until there is reliable testing that can be completed in 1-2 days in the volume needed the testing is just not all that critical.



It's possible to do testing as you suggest. South Korean testing company has done it, they are exporting 400,000 test kits per week now and increasing production as fast as they can.



> The system then determines whether the virus is positive, negative or inconclusive. The total running time from extraction stage to analysis takes just five to six hours to process a total of 15,000 samples, according to doctors and researchers at Seegene Medical Foundation.




https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnew...rus-test-makers-high-demand/story?id=69958217


----------



## Luftmensch

A little late on the mask discussion... but it strikes me as a case of "perfect being enemy of the good"...

Proper medical face masks are effective (when used properly) at preventing the wearer from being infected. The mask is individual protection - the wearer is protected _from_ the community.
Cloth face masks can be useful for minimising droplet transmission within the community. The mask is social protection - the wearer is protecting the community.

I think organisations like the CDC and WHO were perhaps too focused on using scientific studies/evidence to guide _medical_ best practice. In hindsight, this is potentially not useful messaging for the general public. It is clear that the majority of citizens are _not_ following proper protocol for surgical masks. It is a waste of critical resources. Had these organisations issued advice to use cloth face masks earlier, perhaps there would have been less of a run on PPE. The front line should have first access to this equipment. 

In a crisis like this, relaxing advice from 'perfect' to 'good' might be a better strategy for managing public behaviour. People are anxious and that has resulted in small-scale group panic. Beyond hygiene, a component of cloth face masks that strikes me as important is the psychological aspect. Cloth face masks empower people by making them feel like they have some element of control. 

I definitely think there would have been benefits from issuing the advice earlier... but... "Yeah? Well... you know... that's just like uhhh, my opinion, man." - I guess being an armchair epidemiologist/virologist is a sport we can all participate in while we are cooped up inside!


----------



## Bill13

According to data obtained from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System website, total U.S. deaths for the first three weeks of March are DOWN 10% from the average of the prior four years for the same three week period.

The average for weeks 9 through 11 for the four prior years was a total of 170,555 deaths. For weeks 9 through 11 this year, the total is 153,015, meaning 17,540 fewer people died in America during the first three weeks of March than could be reasonably expected. And the gap between historic deaths and weekly deaths is widening. For week 11, just 47,655 Americans died, 8,773 and 15% fewer than the average for week 11 in the prior four years. And while data on week 12 is not complete, it is trending similar to week 11 and will likely be down by 15% (around 8,700 deaths less than expected) even though 1,919 COVID-19 deaths were reported (in week beginning 3/22).

https://www.grassfire.com/what_tota...ears_further_raising_question_of_covid_impact


----------



## Bill13

Counter guy at the local electrical supply house said he stopped by FFX Hospital Tuesday around 3:30pm. Walked in and got his results while there. Total time 60 minutes from when he entered the door.
Looking forward to when it's available at the local CVS or grocery pharmacy.


----------



## Nemo

On the masks- there are two types of medical masks:

Surgical masks are the paper masks which are tied somewhat loosely over the face. Like you see surgeons wear in medical shows (and indeed, in real life). They are designed to stop the surgeons droplets getting onto you while they are operating on you. They trap the expiratory airflow pretty well but the inspiratory airflow is as much around the mask as through it. And they have limited filtering capacity. For Covid, they probably provide a degree of protection against droplets but little protection against micro droplets/ aerosols. There is argument around whether they make it more or less likely that someone will touch their face. They are also effective at trapping much of the expiratory airflow, so may reduce the amount of virus that an infected person (even if asymptomatic) sheds into the environment. Note that droplets fall to the ground pretty quckly, so staying 6'/2m away from people is probably more important than wearing a mask. Indeed, this is one of the arguments used against routine wearing of masks in the community: they give people a false sense of security and they don't observe spatial distancing as rigourously.

Respirators are masks which seal around the face. All of the inspiratory flow is meant to go through the mask. If the mask doesn't suck itself into your face when you breathe in, it's not properly fitted and won't work. They can be disposable or reusable (reusables look like a gas mask). In the USA, they are usually rated N95, in Europe P2. This is a technical definition describing the filtering efficeincy. There is a higher rating available (N99, N100 in USA or P3 in EU) but these are uncommonly seen in disposable medical masks IME. They can be a bit of an effort to breathe through, especially the N100/P3s, especially if you are wearing them for hours on end. The seal is uncomfortable, especially over the nose, where it tends to pinch the nostrils closed (i sometimes get sinusitis) and abrade the spot where it crosses the bridge of your nose. The particulte filters in respirators usually work by having a layer of charged polypropylene mesh which traps small particles. Sometimes you see disposable masks with an expiratory valve. These will probably provide protection for the wearer but won't filter the wearer's expiratory airflow.

The WHO says (or at least they did the last I checked) that aerosol spread is mainly confined to the medical setting (often caused by aerosol generating procedures (AGPs) such as intubation or bronchoscopy) and this is the main reason that respirators are used in this setting.


----------



## Michi

Bill13 said:


> According to data obtained from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System website, total U.S. deaths for the first three weeks of March are DOWN 10% from the average of the prior four years for the same three week period.


How very illuminating. From the article you linked to:



> total U.S. deaths for the first three weeks of March are DOWN 10% from the average of the prior four years for the same three week period


Translation: we went through all the historical data and cherry-picked the bit we could find that was most suitable to supporting the point we want to make.



> The final data for March could show a total of 26,000 or more FEWER DEATHS in the month than would be expected without even factoring in the impact of 4,000 COVID deaths.


Aha. Yes, there were 26,000 fewer deaths in March. In a normal year, such as 2017, 2.8 million people die of all causes. Meaning that the 26,000 mentioned amount to less than 0.01%. That is one-hundredth of one percent. Surely worth pointing out, isn't it? Never mind that 26,000 is below the noise floor, and has no meaning whatsoever.



> After noting that his fellow doctors are wondering where the heart attacks and strokes have gone, the doctor references an "informal twitter poll" that found "almost half of the respondents reported that they are seeing a 40 percent to 60 percent reduction in admissions for heart attacks; about 20 percent reported more than a 60 percent reduction."


Ah, yes, indeed. Let's face it: coronavirus is actually good for people! It is especially appropriate to conclude that when the data is taken from an informal Twitter poll.



> In other words, the U.K. is locked down for a NET increase of as little as 6,600 or so deaths. Nobody wants to say it, but even Ferguson admits that the vast majority of those dying from COVID-19 would likely have died within the year anyways. There, we said it.


"Locked down for a net increase of as little 6,600 or so deaths." Awesome! Everything is just fine. Seeing that, as of this moment, worldometer reports 7,097 deaths from coronavirus in the UK. Oh yes, just in case you missed it: when lots of people die from coronavirus, that doesn't mean that other people stop dying from what people normally die from.


----------



## ian

Bill13 said:


> According to data obtained from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System website, total U.S. deaths for the first three weeks of March are DOWN 10% from the average of the prior four years for the same three week period.
> 
> The average for weeks 9 through 11 for the four prior years was a total of 170,555 deaths. For weeks 9 through 11 this year, the total is 153,015, meaning 17,540 fewer people died in America during the first three weeks of March than could be reasonably expected. And the gap between historic deaths and weekly deaths is widening. For week 11, just 47,655 Americans died, 8,773 and 15% fewer than the average for week 11 in the prior four years. And while data on week 12 is not complete, it is trending similar to week 11 and will likely be down by 15% (around 8,700 deaths less than expected) even though 1,919 COVID-19 deaths were reported (in week beginning 3/22).
> 
> https://www.grassfire.com/what_tota...ears_further_raising_question_of_covid_impact



So, this is a weird statistic, I guess. But that article (without saying it explicitly) seems to be implying that covid-19 isn’t a big deal, and we should just relax about it. This is misguided. There could be a billion different things contributing to the differences in numbers of deaths. I wouldn't be surprised if car accidents were down a bit, what with people staying home. I'm not saying this makes up the difference or something, since the number of car accidents per year in the US is only 40,000(?) or so. But there could be many other similar factors, some related to the covid response, some completely unrelated. Writing articles that try to downplay covid using such stats is bad journalism. (I'd say it's bad science, but it's not science.)

Edit: @Michi, I do think @Bill13 is operating in good faith here. I just disagree strongly with the article. So we don't have to make it personal, right?


----------



## Michi

ian said:


> Edit: @Michi, I do think @Bill13 is operating in good faith here. I just disagree strongly with the article. So we don't have to make it personal, right?


@ian: If @Bill13 is posting rubbish such as this without any qualification whatsoever, then, at best, this is a misleading post that gives air time to nonsense. At worst, it is spreading conspiracy theories with no foundation in actual data. I cannot fathom why someone would choose to spread that kind of rubbish.

Either way, the post is inappropriate, IMO, and it deserves to be called out.


----------



## daveb

@Michi Say what you will about Bill's post. Don't ascribe motive to or otherwise disparage Bill.


----------



## Bill13

Michi said:


> How very illuminating. From the article you linked to:
> 
> 
> Translation: we went through all the historical data and cherry-picked the bit we could find that was most suitable to supporting the point we want to make.
> 
> 
> Aha. Yes, there were 26,000 fewer deaths in March. In a normal year, such as 2017, 2.8 million people die of all causes. Meaning that the 26,000 mentioned amount to less than 0.01%. That is one-hundredth of one percent. Surely worth pointing out, isn't it? Never mind that 26,000 is below the noise floor, and has no meaning whatsoever.
> 
> 
> Ah, yes, indeed. Let's face it: coronavirus is actually good for people! It is especially appropriate to conclude that when the data is taken from an informal Twitter poll.
> 
> 
> "Locked down for a net increase of as little 6,600 or so deaths." Awesome! Everything is just fine. Seeing that, as of this moment, worldometer reports 7,097 deaths from coronavirus in the UK. Oh yes, just in case you missed it: when lots of people die from coronavirus, that doesn't mean that other people stop dying from what people normally die from.
> 
> @Bill13 I don't know what stone it is you crawled out from underneath. But, please, do us all a favour and crawl back under it.



Not trying to offend anyone, and no, I don't live with my wife and two children under a rock although my Mother is not always happy with my table manners.

I'm just a libertarian who grew up in the 60's and 70's and was taught to question authority. So when Dr Fauci on the 29th of March says 100,000 to 200,00 is the mortality range (and of course the media goes nuts) and as of yesterday it's down to 60,000 I wonder how they got it so wrong. I never assume people's motives are pure, especially those in power; be it in the media or government.

Just this week Dr Brix says in a press conference “If someone dies _with_ COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death,” I wonder why they would do that. Why is she enacting a policy that will clearly inflate the number of covid deaths? So if I have covid and am asymptomatic but die of a heart attack, my death will be listed as covid. I do know this will make getting the real covid death numbers harder. 

As far as the data - I do not see it as cherry picking. They used the most recent data since widespread stay at home orders were placed and compared it to the previous four years. I thought it an interesting example of how most people don't look beyond the initial ramifications of a policy. The good old "yes, but then what?" I should of put in a disclaimer that even though I linked to the article because I thought I should give them credit for the interesting data - I did not necessarily agree with the article in it's entirety. ​


----------



## Michi

Bill13 said:


> So when Dr Fauci on the 29th of March says 100,000 to 200,00 is the mortality range (and of course the media goes nuts) and as of yesterday it's down to 60,000 I wonder how they got it so wrong.


I'm not sure that this was wrong, given the data available at the time.

As of right now, the actual number of fatalities is just under 15,000.

The number of infections on 29th of March was 137,000. Today, it is just under 400,000, and the recent daily increase has been close to 10% per day. The fatality rate lags the number of infections by about two weeks in most countries.

If fatalities end up being fewer than 50,000, that would most likely be celebrated as a victory.

I do hope that the number will stay as low as that. If it does, credit to all the citizens who listened to science and reason and stayed at home.


----------



## ian

Bill13 said:


> Just this week Dr Brix says in a press conference “If someone dies _with_ COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death,” I wonder why they would do that. Why is she enacting a policy that will clearly inflate the number of covid deaths? So if I have covid and am asymptomatic but die of a heart attack, my death will be listed as covid. I do know this will make getting the real covid death numbers harder.



This policy makes the most sense to me. I mean, I guess I’d rather not have them count it as a covid death if you die in a tornado while having covid, but everything’s so interconnected in your body that it wouldn’t make sense to say “oh, well, he actually died from this other thing“ when your immune system and general body function was severely impacted by covid. Plus, it’s good to have a simple policy. It makes the numbers less complicated. I think the negatives are outweighed by the positives here.

You could even argue that if things keep going like this and hospitals become too overwhelmed with covid patients to service other sick people, there will be fatalities that won’t be counted as covid deaths even though they really are.


----------



## ian

On second thought, what if you couldn’t outrun the tornado because you were so out of breath from covid?!! Ack. Or maybe you just had a heart attack because your general stress levels were elevated from reading news stories about covid! Everything’s a covid death!


----------



## Bert2368

Many people have not worked with statistics enough to determine what a significant deviation might be, they just look at the numbers like it was their bank account, number went up or down?

Considering that a couple of major causes of death in USA have been drastically curtailed for several weeks to a month now (you can't go out drinking at bars/restaurants and try to drive home, most people are driving a LOT less overall, plus many workplace injuries are at a standstill along with their workforces), the mortality rates would need to be carefully parsed to yield useful disease related numbers in any case.

Personally, I wonder how the rates of stress related causes of death are doing. Is stress from this new worry about getting et up by bears statistically more lethal than the stress of just going to your regular day job?



> "More people die of worrying 'bout getting et up by a bear than ever get et by bears"


----------



## WildBoar

Bill13 said:


> According to data obtained from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System website, total U.S. deaths for the first three weeks of March are DOWN 10% from the average of the prior four years for the same three week period.
> 
> The average for weeks 9 through 11 for the four prior years was a total of 170,555 deaths. For weeks 9 through 11 this year, the total is 153,015, meaning 17,540 fewer people died in America during the first three weeks of March than could be reasonably expected. And the gap between historic deaths and weekly deaths is widening. For week 11, just 47,655 Americans died, 8,773 and 15% fewer than the average for week 11 in the prior four years. And while data on week 12 is not complete, it is trending similar to week 11 and will likely be down by 15% (around 8,700 deaths less than expected) even though 1,919 COVID-19 deaths were reported (in week beginning 3/22).
> 
> https://www.grassfire.com/what_tota...ears_further_raising_question_of_covid_impact


Got a note yesterday afternoon that a great aunt at an assisted living facility in NJ passed away due to the virus.


----------



## Michi

WildBoar said:


> Got a note yesterday afternoon that a great aunt at an assisted living facility in NJ passed away due to the virus.


My sincere condolences


----------



## WildBoar

Thanks. Nursing homes/ assisted living facilities are very bad places to be right now. I suspect over the next month we'll hear from quite a few more US-based KKF members about deaths of elderly family members.


----------



## chinacats

Testing really depends where you are as to availability...almost non-existent here unless it's obvious that you've already have full blown symptoms...

As to body counts, at this point it would likely be a fairly serious undercount...people die, haul them off and attribute to whatever other health issue they suffer...can't test the living, screw the dead seems to be the prevailing attitude...

As to total count, NYC had over 700 covid deaths yesterday and the disease is still strong in the city and just beginning to move to rural areas that have poor healthcare systems...i see no reason to be optimistic...15000 US deaths in just a couple months will not lead to a good number after a full year of this shitstorm.


----------



## Matus

General note on the statistical data evaluation. It is not a rocket science, but most people did not have a course in statistics and are lost as to what evaluation they read in media makes sense and what not. We see article titles daily where they will quote a low percent difference in some country (number of cases or deaths) - say 3% - and then speculate about the change in trend based on this number - and often that is less then 1 standard deviation, so statistically irrelevant change. Thank n top of that come effects that we do not know of about how/when the new data came in.

[end of rant by a physicist in overload]


----------



## WildBoar

In college we had to take "Probability and Sadistics". Does that count?


----------



## daveb

WildBoar said:


> Thanks. Nursing homes/ assisted living facilities are very bad places to be right now. I suspect over the next month we'll hear from quite a few more US-based KKF members about deaths of elderly family members.



I'm the Dining Director of a Rehab Center and recently left an assisted living facility. My biggest fear is once the virus gets into a facility it pretty much makes the rounds of residents and staff. Our daily routines have changed to prevent that from happening, but a largely 9 - 10$/hour staff is pretty cavalier about being the ones that will bring it in.


----------



## bahamaroot

daveb said:


> ...but a largely 9 - 10$/hour staff is pretty cavalier about being the ones that will bring it in.


Well then I guess they should just make those cavalier workers just stay home like everyone else and let the elderly fend for themselves. You can be very careful and still catch the virus regardless of your hourly wage or job.


----------



## Bert2368

It was convenient, efficient and economical to set up care facilities with our old folks needing extra care all concentrated together- Until it wasn't.



> “You layer a pandemic on facilities that are chronically understaffed and struggling with infection control, and that’s a very, very challenging situation,” said Joseph Gaugler, a professor who focuses on long-term care and aging at the University of Minnesota’s School of Public Health.



https://m.startribune.com/nursing-h...-from-coronavirus-despite-lockdown/569381112/


----------



## HRC_64

Michi said:


> @ian: If @Bill13 ....spreading conspiracy theories with no foundation in actual data. I cannot fathom why someone would choose to spread that kind of rubbish....Either way, the post is inappropriate, IMO, and it deserves to be called out.



You guys are really worked up about this?

"Where Have All the Heart Attacks Gone? - The New York Times"
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/...itals-emergency-care-heart-attack-stroke.html



> The hospitals are eerily quiet, except for Covid-19.
> 
> I have heard this sentiment from fellow doctors across the United States and in many other countries. We are all asking: Where are all the patients with heart attacks and stroke? They are missing from our hospitals.
> 
> Yale New Haven Hospital, where I work, has almost 300 people stricken with Covid-19, and the numbers keep rising — and yet we are not yet at capacity because of a marked decline in our usual types of patients. In more normal times, we never have so many empty beds.


...


> What is striking is that many of the emergencies have disappeared. Heart attack and stroke teams, always poised to rush in and save lives, are mostly idle. This is not just at my hospital. My fellow cardiologists have shared with me that their cardiology consultations have shrunk, except those related to Covid-19. In an informal Twitter poll by @angioplastyorg, an online community of cardiologists, *almost half of the respondents reported that they are seeing a 40 percent to 60 percent reduction in admissions for heart attacks; about 20 percent reported more than a 60 percent reduction.*



Mortality in the United States, 2017
Figure 4. Age-adjusted death rates for the 10 leading causes of death: United States, 2016 and 2017





source>https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db328.htm
This CDC chart shows heart disease as the number 1 cause of mortality in the US in recent years. The NYT article discusses (anecdotal evidence) how sources of "normal" mortality appears to be declining during the pandemic. Is it possible that lowering one cause of death can offset increases in other kinds of death? 

Yes, its a logical possibility.


----------



## Michi

HRC_64 said:


> Is it possible that lowering one cause of death can offset increases in other kinds of death?


I doubt it, because the numbers don't stack up. In a normal year (2017), about 2.8 million people die in the US from all causes. Also in 2017, 647,000 deaths were due to heart disease.

Just under 17,000 people have died in the US as of today from coronavirus. That is 2.6% of the number of people we'd expect to die from heart disease this year. We are only three months in, so let's call it 10% adjusted on an annual basis. That doesn't explain a 60% reduction, unless the data is cherry-picked.


----------



## bahamaroot

People that would normally be dying of heart attacks are getting covid and dying....


----------



## Michi

Michi said:


> That doesn't explain a 60% reduction, unless the data is cherry-picked.


I suspect that something else is going on there. Maybe a lot of people don't see their doctor because they are afraid to leave their house. Unless it's something really urgent or acute, I'd expect people to delay their visit until they feel it's safer.


----------



## Michi

bahamaroot said:


> People that would normally be dying of heart attacks are getting covid and dying....


I'm sure that's the case. But I don't see how it can be the case in those numbers. Not 60%. If some doctors seeing a 60% reduction, it's because of additional factors, not because all the people who would normally have shown up died of coronavirus.


----------



## bahamaroot

Machi, you take to much to serious.


----------



## Midsummer

Just a note for the statisticians; the Mayor of New York has satiated that any death in which the patient had cover symptoms (dry cough, fever, headache, diarrhea, pink eye (new to me)..) will be deemed a COVID death. I can only speculate as to their reasoning.


----------



## Chuckles

I am feeding a dwindled college population. After severe layoffs my skeleton crew is mostly nearing retirement age. We are being very careful but the students are very cavalier in their behavior. If anybody on my team gets it we are basically all out of work.


----------



## Michi

Midsummer said:


> I can only speculate as to their reasoning.


There are not enough tests available, so assuming that everyone who presents with symptoms actually is infected with coronavirus is the most sensible thing to do, even if some of these people show the symptoms for other reasons.

If it walks like a duck, and it quacks like a duck…


----------



## daveb

bahamaroot said:


> You can be very careful and still catch the virus regardless of your hourly wage or job.



No arguments here. The idiot spring breakers are proof of that. The number of sick political leaders certainly makes the case that anyone can get it.

But in the context of the elderly homes, the medical staff has enough training to take it seriously and they are used to sanitation methods including handwashing, masks, gowns and gloves. The dining staff has a good bit of training in cross contamination and is used to the handwashing and gloves, the only thing new being the masks. The care associates and housekeeping staff are out of their element (and just happen to be in the wage group I mentioned - nothing causal was implied). They largely don't take the risk of infection, contanimation, seriously. 

I spent part of the weekend as Manager On Duty and every time this staff came into the building they had to be reminded to hit the handwashing station. And then many would argue that they were only outside for a minute. You're seriously arguing with washing your hands???

Anyone can get it. Anyone can bring it into the building. But I gotta believe the risk is greater with people that don't give 2 f's about it than with those that do.


----------



## chinacats

Sounds like a good solution may be to pay them more and include in their responsibility learning a bit about the how's and why's of sanitation/cross contamination?


----------



## inferno

when there is a person, there is a problem. 
when there is no person, there is no problem. 

/ josef stalin


----------



## inferno

Michi said:


> I doubt it, because the numbers don't stack up. In a normal year (2017), about 2.8 million people die in the US from all causes. Also in 2017, 647,000 deaths were due to heart disease.
> 
> Just under 17,000 people have died in the US as of today from coronavirus. That is 2.6% of the number of people we'd expect to die from heart disease this year. We are only three months in, so let's call it 10% adjusted on an annual basis. That doesn't explain a 60% reduction, unless the data is cherry-picked.



one of my coworkers told me he saw a tv show and there they said that last year until now (april) 280 or so had died in this specific age group in this specific area (stockholm)
and this year it was 14 more for the same period. 

its really scary ****.

last year they died from the flue and this year they die from corona. because thats this years flue.


----------



## inferno

hey guys why the F aren't we shutting down society for aids?? or traffic accidents? or cancer. or malaria??

https://www.worldometers.info/ scroll down to "health"


----------



## Luftmensch

inferno said:


> hey guys why the F aren't we shutting down society for aids?? or traffic accidents? or cancer. or malaria??
> 
> https://www.worldometers.info/ scroll down to "health"



I take your cheeky point.... society is comfortable with some problems being too difficult to solve, disproportionately affecting the poor, or being too profitable

COVID-19 is different though...


----------



## Michi

inferno said:


> https://www.worldometers.info/ scroll down to "health"


I do see your point. But remember that, if we were to let coronavirus run unchecked world-wide, we'd be looking at somewhere around 75–300 _million_ deaths, depending on what mortality rate one assumes.

It really is a lot more serious than other diseases, because there is no immunity and because the virus spreads very aggressively. I suspect we'll see a demonstration of this in India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and a number of African countries


----------



## M1k3

Michi said:


> There are not enough tests available, so assuming that everyone who presents with symptoms actually is infected with coronavirus is the most sensible thing to do, even if some of these people show the symptoms for other reasons.
> 
> If it walks like a duck, and it quacks like a duck…





Michi said:


> I do see your point. But remember that, if we were to let coronavirus run unchecked world-wide, we'd be looking at somewhere around 75–300 _million_ deaths, depending on what mortality rate one assumes.
> 
> It really is a lot more serious than other diseases, because there is no immunity and because the virus spreads very aggressively. I suspect we'll see a demonstration of this in India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and a number of African countries



But not Belarus. They are farmers. The tractors will heal.


----------



## Luftmensch

Bill13 said:


> I'm just a libertarian who grew up in the 60's and 70's and was taught to question authority.



I was born after the 70's. It seems to me that the period of time after WWII and the mid to late 70's respected expert advice more than today. Perhaps that is rose tinted glasses speaking? Under the definition of authority that recognises specialised knowledge on a subject, why would you question it?




Bill13 said:


> Just this week Dr Brix says in a press conference “If someone dies _with_ COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death,” I wonder why they would do that. Why is she enacting a policy that will clearly inflate the number of covid deaths?



Why is it you think they would do that? I am being absolutely sincere here... I would like to know what the counter view-point is....




Bill13 said:


> So if I have covid and am asymptomatic but die of a heart attack, my death will be listed as covid.



Doubtful

The odds of you being tested are low (unless you are required to do so through contact tracing or because you have obvious symptoms).
The odds of you being tested as asymptomatic and dying from a heart attack are even lower.
The odds of you not being tested, clearly dying of a heart attack and then being tested are zero.
The odds of you not being tested, clearly dying of a heart attack and then scoring the death as COVID-19 are zero.
The policy is a short-cut for for determining mortality in symptomatic people.

The odds of COVID-19 being the cause of death is certain when you have been tested positive, submitted to intensive care, have ARDS and are intubated.
The odds of COVID-19 being the cause of death is very high when you have been tested positive, submitted to hospital and died of a respiratory or cardiovascular problem.

The odds of COVID-19 being the cause of death is very high when you have been tested positive, have bad symptoms and died of a respiratory or cardiovascular problem.

The odds of COVID-19 being the cause of death is high when you have a history of the symptoms and died of a respiratory or cardiovascular problem.

The thing is... if you are known to have COVID-19, or there is credible evidence you have, the virus may be the straw that breaks the camels back. Say a person with bad diabetes gets COVID-19 and dies. Is the reason they are dead because they had diabetes? Or because COVID-19 depleted their already weakened body? Don't you think it is reasonable to ascribe this death to COVID-19?


----------



## Bert2368

inferno said:


> hey guys why the F aren't we shutting down society for aids?? or traffic accidents? or cancer. or malaria??



Because catching AIDS usually required one to do rather more than share the same breathing space or touch the same object as an infected person within 3 days?

Because you can frequently see traffic coming your way?

Because being bitten by mosquitos has not recently killed thousands and thousands of moderately privileged first world people with access to modern health care in London, Milan, Helsinki, Los Angeles and New York in just a couple of months?

Cancer, eh, you go me there. We really ought to permanently shut down everything more advanced than hunting, gathering, knife forging and slash & burn agriculture to stop that, the exchange would be well worth it.


----------



## HRC_64

Michi said:


> I suspect that something else is going on there. Maybe a lot of people don't see their doctor because they are afraid to leave their house. Unless it's something really urgent or acute, I'd expect people to delay their visit until they feel it's safer.



The amount of risk (a society takes )correlates with the amount of death (a society accepts).
We've shut down risk and so death is falling.

This hypothesis isn't hard to understand.

If you think its a "conspiracy theory", and not common sense ("risk 101")
I'd beg you to reconsider your thought process.


----------



## HRC_64

Luftmensch said:


> The thing is... if you are known to have COVID-19, or there is credible evidence you have, the virus may be the straw that breaks the camels back. Say a person with bad diabetes gets COVID-19 and dies. Is the reason they are dead because they had diabetes? Or because COVID-19 depleted their already weakened body? Don't you think it is reasonable to ascribe this death to COVID-19?



This is not what was being argued earlier.

(People) were saying its okay to claim anyone with "symptoms" as "covid-19 presumed positive".

This is complete BS...Dr Brix discussed this today on Briefing. The US has tested 2m people "displaying syptoms" of covid 19. The testing results show massive variation ragining from ~5 to ~45% of the tests are coming back positive, depending on proximity to outbreak epicentre.

That is to say, having sypmtoms is not strong evidence of Covid-19 absent significant other clinical evidence. The error could be 95 to 55% just reversing the numbers above.

What is actually happneing is something more like this: 90% of Covid-19 deaths are multi-causal.
That is to say, there is a MAJOR underlying health complication in adition to Covid-19.

In this multi-causal case, there is guidance to list Covid-19 as the "primary" (or whatever") cause of death.

The "grey area" case is a sub-set of the above cases. Its not "every person with symptoms"
ITs a grey area because not every patient who is in DOCTORs treatmetn....and then dies has had the opportunity to be tested

This creates a problem post mortem: 

1) should I use a test kit on a dead person (denying or delaying a living person results)?
2) should I delay burial/disposal of human remains --which are infections-- (while waiting for a test)?

In general, having crappy statistics is [ARGUABLY] better than denial of care (or delay of care) to a critically ill patient, or taking on extra risk in the morgue/post mortem system when that system is already stressed out.

This problems are much more limited in scope. It would be more of a problem for cases were someone 

1) dies of a heart attack, 
2) also hase diabetes, 
3) and had non-descript "flu like sympotoms"
4) is tended to/CPR by non MD staff like EMT (with no previous clinical history etc)

etc etc.


----------



## HRC_64

FYI, here is the actual CDC guidance

Guidance for Certifying Deaths Due to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID–19)
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-1-Guidance-for-Certifying-COVID-19-Deaths.pdf
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

Evaluating and Testing Persons for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201.../coronavirus/2019-ncov/clinical-criteria.html


----------



## M1k3

In Los Angeles county they report total deaths and how many of those have underlying conditions. Not perfect...


----------



## Midsummer

HRC_64 said:


> FYI, here is the actual CDC guidance
> 
> Guidance for Certifying Deaths Due to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID–19)
> https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-1-Guidance-for-Certifying-COVID-19-Deaths.pdf
> https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf
> 
> Evaluating and Testing Persons for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
> https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-criteria.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/clinical-criteria.html


Thank you for this,


From reference #2: 
"In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.” In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19 infection was likely. However, please note that testing for COVID–19 should be conducted whenever possible."

I find the qualification as probable to be most appropriate. As they mentioned in the these references, it is important to have accurate counts. Beyond that, I believe that it is necessary to obtain as much accurate information as possible. These are human lives and the reasons for their deaths have consequences beyond politics and epidemiology. Potential problems in their environment, confections, co-morbidities (eg. potential congenital disease) can inform families and neighbors. I would hate to see a complete abdication of that responsibility.

That said, I am certain that the majority of the medical professionals involved will do their best to not succumb to the pressures of the public to oversimplify.


----------



## Michi

HRC_64 said:


> The amount of risk (a society takes )correlates with the amount of death (a society accepts).
> We've shut down risk and so death is falling.
> 
> This hypothesis isn't hard to understand.


Sure, I understand that. This Easter weekend, Australia will almost certainly have far fewer fatalities from car accidents than in previous years.



> If you think its a "conspiracy theory", and not common sense ("risk 101")
> I'd beg you to reconsider your thought process.


The grassfire article stated that _"the final data for March could show a total of 26,000 or more FEWER DEATHS in the month"_.

It doesn't say what causes of deaths or what the reason might be for the drop. For example, it would be interesting to see what variance we historically have in the data. A variation of 10% seems significant, but we can't expect each month, year over year, to have the same numbers. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that there might be a 3-5% swing that is perfectly normal. In other words, without deeper analysis, the 10% figure is meaningless; part of the 10% reduction could be due to a random fluctuation in the down direction.

There are probably a lot of other factors that contribute indirectly to a lower death rate, too. For example, car accident rates are way down in Australia (not surprisingly, since people move about as little as possible). Crime rates are way down as well, 30-50% in many regions. That means less violence and fewer murders. I would expect fatal work accidents to drop significantly, too. With so many fewer people at work, that would be expected.

And there are probably quite a lot of other things that play into this because, very suddenly, we have changed how society runs on a very large scale. In that context, comparing the data from last year with the same period this year is ill-advised, at best. Because the conditions that created the data last year are radically different from the conditions this year.

The article goes on to say _"First, anecdotally, we are hearing reports from hospitals across the country that hospital visits are down and hospitals are laying off staff."_

The plural of "anecdote" is "anecdotes", not "facts".

It continues: _"an "informal twitter poll" that found "almost half of the respondents reported that they are seeing a 40 percent to 60 percent reduction in admissions for heart attacks"_

I have very serious doubts that an "informal Twitter poll" is an appropriate way to draw conclusions about the course of the epidemic. And it counts responses. In other words, those who responded reported this. We have no idea how many did not respond, and whether they would have reported the same thing. This is a meaningless poll.

So, there are (anecdotally) fewer heart attacks. That doesn't surprise me. A lot of people are sitting at home watching TV instead of moving about. That alone would probably reduce the rate of heart attacks somewhat. Some of the people who died of coronavirus may have otherwise died of a heart attack, so that reduces the number as well. But the numbers don't stack up to account for a 60% drop. There have to be other reasons, assuming that the 60% figure isn't just cherry-picked or invented. (Without citing sources—which is a big red warning flag by itself—it is impossible to know whether the figures weren't just made up.)

The article concludes: _"In other words, the U.K. is locked down for a NET increase of as little as 6,600 or so deaths. Nobody wants to say it, but even Ferguson admits that the vast majority of those dying from COVID-19 would likely have died within the year anyways. There, we said it."_

As of today, the UK has had 8,000 coronavirus deaths. Looking at the UK growth rate, they are not even close to flattening the curve. Moreover, we know that deaths lag behind case numbers by about two weeks. In other words, there will more deaths and at an increasing rate in the UK for at least the next month. The UK is almost certainly not "locked down for […] as little as 6,600 or so deaths." The actual number, with certainty, will be much larger.

Yes, old people are more susceptible to dying from coronavirus, just as they are more susceptible to dying from pretty much any other kind of health issue. Saying that they "likely would have died within the year anyways" is not only an assertion that is not supported by data, it is also callous in the extreme.

The article does its best to trivialise the pandemic. I have no idea why. Regardless, to me, this is gutter journalism.


----------



## Luftmensch

HRC_64 said:


> (People) were saying its okay to claim anyone with "symptoms" as "covid-19 presumed positive".



Clearly that is not appropriate. It is flu season here... 



HRC_64 said:


> FYI, here is the actual CDC guidance
> 
> Guidance for Certifying Deaths Due to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID–19)
> https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-1-Guidance-for-Certifying-COVID-19-Deaths.pdf
> https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf
> 
> Evaluating and Testing Persons for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
> https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-criteria.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/clinical-criteria.html



Thanks for the links!


The point of my post [#993] is that in COVID-19 positive, multi-causal cases, it is not unreasonable to count the death as COVID-19. Sure, there are grey areas, but medical professionals will appeal to guidelines and their expertise to assign a reasonable cause. What I was trying to communicate (without saying directly) is: I do not see this as a policy that is designed to inflate the number of COVID-19 fatalities.


----------



## Luftmensch

Matus said:


> General note on the statistical data evaluation. It is not a rocket science, but most people did not have a course in statistics and are lost as to what evaluation they read in media makes sense and what not. We see article titles daily where they will quote a low percent difference in some country (number of cases or deaths) - say 3% - and then speculate about the change in trend based on this number - and often that is less then 1 standard deviation, so statistically irrelevant change. Thank n top of that come effects that we do not know of about how/when the new data came in.



On the evaluation of statistics, I respectfully beg to differ 

Frequentist statistics is one thing... Bayesian statistics is another level. It is a wonderful tool that makes me feel anxious and inadequate


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> The article does its best to trivialise the pandemic



It would not surprise me if there was a slight dip in mortality due to the lock-downs... I'd prefer to see more data accumulated before giving it much thought. Although that data might be 'interesting', I don't see much value in it. As you say, it is fodder for those who wish to trivialise the pandemic.


----------



## Bert2368

Luftmensch said:


> As you say, it is fodder for those who wish to trivialise the pandemic.



I have watched the whole progression from initial resistance to sufficiently proactive travel restrictions and any moves towards shutting down non essential gatherings & businesses, then tripping up prevention through grudgingly slow/inadequate/piecemeal measures, now an increasingly desperate flurry of "liars figuring", distribution of reassuring but medically and statistically incorrect talking points, astroturfing of memes aimed towards convincing ordinary people they really should be ignoring minor inconveniences like sickness and deaths in the family in order to help meet financial "industry" requirements on 2nd quarter profits, support stock markets and maintain asset values.

Specific suggestions will absolutely violate site standards on political discussion- is stating the below theory allowable?



> There is no way to address our societies future health situation properly without first addressing the priorities of our VERY interelated financial/state intelligence/political communities.
> 
> The priorities (our overall wellbeing, protecting human life) of our technical and medical communities best equipped to plan and implement responses to recent crisis are not the priorities of those communities who hold power and try to control the offical narative/mass media (profits to and continued control by themselves, preventing/slowing any untoward changes of status quo)



There, got it out of my system.


----------



## Matus

Bert2368 said:


> ...
> There, got it out of my system.



We are here for you Bert.


----------



## parbaked

Trying to eat lots of fresh vegetables. Lucky to have a great produce market I can walk or bike to.
Feels safer = less trafficked than the supermarkets.
They have plenty of vegetables, but closed the bulk food bins.
Clearly people are making bread!


----------



## M1k3

Yes they are. I was going to try my hand at making bread but I'm having a hard time finding any flour...


----------



## Michi

I don’t quite get the flour thing. Bread has been readily available here the entire time. But there is no flour or yeast to be had.


----------



## ian

Michi said:


> I don’t quite get the flour thing. Bread has been readily available here the entire time. But there is no flour or yeast to be had.



I bet that partly, it’s that people are now home a lot and have the time to be around for cooking projects (like bread baking) that require multiple hours/days. Plus everyone is newly focused on cooking, in general.


----------



## M1k3

Kids and cookies, cakes, etc.?


----------



## Michi

Michi said:


> As of today, the UK has had 8,000 coronavirus deaths. Looking at the UK growth rate, they are not even close to flattening the curve.


Since I wrote this yesterday, the UK has added another 980 deaths.

_"The death toll rose by 980 to 8,958, Health Minister Matt Hancock said on Friday — its biggest daily rise to date."_

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-11/boris-johnson-continues-covid-19-recovery-out-of-icu/12141680


----------



## Michi

This article was just published in the NY Times, covering the situation in New York:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

From the article:

_"Over the 31 days ending April 4, more than twice the typical number of New Yorkers died.

That total for the city includes deaths directly linked to the novel coronavirus as well as those from other causes, like heart attacks and cancer. Even this is only a partial count; we expect this number to rise as more deaths are counted.

These numbers contradict the notion that many people who are dying from the new virus would have died shortly anyway. And they suggest that the current coronavirus death figures understate the real toll of the virus, either because of undercounting of coronavirus deaths, increases in deaths that are normally preventable, or both.

[…]

“The extent of damage from the virus may be greater than we anticipated, and the indirect effects of the virus may be greater than we anticipated,” said Harlan Krumholz, a cardiologist and professor at Yale Medical School, who is particularly concerned that patients with cardiac conditions are not seeking care because of the fear of being infected with coronavirus. “Meaning that the overall toll is much greater.”

The overall rise in deaths suggests that the combination of crowded hospitals, an overtaxed ambulance system and a fearful population could have resulted in more deaths among people with heart attacks, strokes or other ailments who might have survived in normal circumstances."_


----------



## daveb

M1k3 said:


> Yes they are. I was going to try my hand at making bread but I'm having a hard time finding any flour...



Not being able to find yeast surprised me. Any mom can make cookies for the urchins but how many actually make bread? Finally scored some from Restaurant Depot and today a backordered package from King Arthur showed up. I've got the next 200 years covered.


----------



## Michi

If you have even a little bit of yeast left, you can grow an unlimited amount yourself. Same thing as making sourdough starter.


----------



## HRC_64

Michi said:


> This article was just published in the NY Times, covering the situation in New York:...



As if TODAY, there are fewer ICU admissions in NYC than normal
So that data partition isn't representative of very much...going forward

http://www.mssnyenews.org/







> In our home state of California, for example, COVID-19 patients occupy fewer than 2 in 10 ICU beds, and the growth in COVID-19-related utilization, thankfully, seems to be flattening out.


----------



## Michi

HRC_64 said:


> As if TODAY, there are fewer ICU admissions in NYC than on a average day this time of year.


Yes. It means that, finally, the new infection rate is dropping.

This doesn't change that more than twice the normal number of people died, and that the daily number of deaths will keep climbing for another two weeks, because the deaths lag behind the number of infections.


----------



## M1k3

daveb said:


> Not being able to find yeast surprised me. Any mom can make cookies for the urchins but how many actually make bread? Finally scored some from Restaurant Depot and today a backordered package from King Arthur showed up. I've got the next 200 years covered.



If you're looking to get rid of some, let me know.


----------



## daveb

I've got 3 pounds and RD has it back in stock reguarly. Glad to drop a pound in the mail. PM me an addy (so I don't have to look for it) Red Star Active (not instant).


----------



## Midsummer

Michi said:


> Yes. It means that, finally, the new infection rate is dropping.
> 
> This doesn't change that more than twice the normal number of people died, and that the daily number of deaths will keep climbing for another two weeks, because the deaths lag behind the number of infections.



For those that succumb this is a real tragedy. It is a scourge. We must once again get on the ball and make something of our future. It is a difficult calculus. Time to vaccine/ time to market collapse...remdesivir?.. Hydroxy choraquine?/ food rotting in the fields .. legal system tied into knots with evictions and bankruptcies. The disease is a scourge and so is the collapse of our economy. They are both real. The balance is elusive.

I just hope someone as smart as you is working on it


----------



## Michi

Midsummer said:


> I just hope someone as smart as you is working on it


I'm not even vaguely qualified to work on something like this. I'm not an economist, and I'm not an epidemiologist.

I do hope though that, for once, science and reason will prevail. Not that I'm holding my breath


----------



## Luftmensch

You pays your internet bills and you takes your media choice*:

Fauci dismisses 'conspiracy theory' of overstated US Covid-19 death toll

Relevant quote (emphasis mine):


> In New York City, more than 200 people are dying at home each day during the pandemic, according to city officials, a very much higher rate than usual. Bill de Blasio, New York City’s mayor, has estimated that about *100 to 200 people a day who die at home in the city are not being included in the official virus death count*. But the federal government insists the overall figures are largely accurate.
> 
> “*I think there is more of a chance of missing some that are really coronavirus deaths that are not being counted,*” Fauci told NBC. “But I don’t think that number is significant enough to really substantially modify the trends that we are seeing, at all.”



Why not trust Fauci on this...


* Choose your media bubble.


----------



## Luftmensch

In concerning news:

South Korea says recovered patients testing positive again



> South Korean officials report 91 patients thought to have recovered from the new coronavirus have tested positive again.



Fortunately:



> Kim Woo-joo, professor of infectious diseases at Korea University Guro Hospital, also said patients had likely "relapsed" rather than been reinfected.
> 
> "The number will only increase, 91 is just the beginning now," he said.
> 
> False test results could also be at fault, other experts said, or remnants of the virus could still be in patients' systems but not be infectious or of danger to the host or others.



Too early to make any bold statements but the thought of it is a worry!


----------



## HRC_64

Luftmensch said:


> Why not trust Fauci on this...



There is no way to continue 800/day deaths indefinitely 
when only 200/day are coming into the hospital.

This means the virus has ~peaked~ in NYC

You can pretend other wise by inventing statistics ("occult deaths" etc)
but this is just playing parlour games which is Fauci's point.


----------



## HRC_64

Worth reading this comparison of LA and New York responses from LA Times. The cumulative death in CA over the past two monthe is below the recent DAILY new york death rates. CA shut down earlier than NYC also, and has benefitted from more risk reduction outside of Covid-19 cases reducing burden on hospitals, etc also.



> Ronald Reagan UCLA Medical Center in Westwood has been has been unusually quiet, said an attending physician, who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly. Patients have been admitted, but few.
> 
> “It’s almost like ominous,” he said. “The volume has been the lowest it’s been ever.”
> 
> There are currently 41 COVID-19 patients admitted to the hospital, a figure that appears to have plateaued in recent days, according to the university’s dashboard. The doctor said they are encouraged by the state numbers, but remain anxious.



https://www.latimes.com/california/...a-coronavirus-slowed-hospitals-empty-new-york


----------



## Luftmensch

HRC_64 said:


> You can pretend other wise by inventing statistics ("occult deaths" etc)
> but this is just playing parlour games which is Fauci's point.



What on earth are you on about? Are we missing each-others points?

All I am trying to put to rest is the idea that COVID-19 deaths are being inflated. You can watch the interview yourself for a verbatim record. Here is the transcript:



> [Savannah Guthrie]
> You weighed in on a theory that’s been floating around that
> perhaps the number of fatalities related to COVID-19 is being
> inflated because people are are actually dying of other
> things. What’s your read on that theory?
> 
> [Dr. Anthony Fauci]
> You know, Savannah, there is absolutely no evidence that that’s
> the case at all. You know, I think it falls under the category of
> something that’s very unfortunate, these conspiracy theories that
> we hear about. Every time we have a crisis of any sort there’s
> always this popping up of conspiracy theories. I think the
> deaths that we’re seeing are coronavirus deaths and the other
> deaths are not being counted as coronavirus deaths.
> 
> [Savannah Guthrie]
> On the flipside of that, do you think there’s a potential that
> we’re undercounting coronavirus deaths? Because unfortunately
> we’ve seen in New York some people are dying at home, and there
> has been a persistent lack of testing.
> 
> [Dr. Anthony Fauci]
> That’s a good point. I think there’s more of a chance of missing
> some that are really coronavirus deaths that are not coronavirus
> deaths that are not being counted but i don’t think that numbe is
> significant enough to really substantially modify the trends that
> we’re seeing at all.



Paraphrase: If anything there is a mild under-reporting that is not affecting the trend.


----------



## Luftmensch

HRC_64 said:


> There is no way to continue 800/day deaths indefinitely
> when only 200/day are coming into the hospital.
> 
> This means the virus has ~peaked~ in NYC



Again, I am not sure if we are talking across each-others points? Given the preliminary data, I agree... it looks that way. I very much hope so... NYC was hit hard.




HRC_64 said:


> Worth reading this comparison of LA and New York responses from LA Times. The cumulative death in CA over the past two monthe is below the recent DAILY new york death rates. CA shut down earlier than NYC also, and has benefitted from more risk reduction outside of Covid-19 cases reducing burden on hospitals, etc also.



Sure. I have not pursued that news. I can imagine hospitalisations (e.g. accidents, injuries) decreasing as a result of reducing population activity. I'd probably wait for the dust to settle before relying on current reporting heavily... Either way, that information is not much more than a curiosity? Although an interesting side-effect of current public health policy, it doesn't say much about the progression of the pandemic or how to address it?

The devils advocate position** does not sit well with me: the pandemic is not a good thing nor would society tolerate permanent adoption of lock-down conditions.


** Just to be clear, I am in no way implying that you are peddling these positions. It just seems like an argument that some might use to minimise the severity of this event.


----------



## Michi

New infections in New York are definitely dropping. Taking the US overall, it looks like they've been level for the past week at slightly above 30,000 per day.

But there is a long way to go yet. Looking a South Korea and Australia, it seems like the fall-off in daily infections takes at least as long as the ramp-up (and can be considerably longer), and then there is a long tail of steady infections at lower numbers. In Singapore, which was hailed as having dealt with the outbreak very effectively, things are going pear-shaped again, and infections are rising. The numbers look similarly discouraging for Japan.

What this is shows is that the virus strikes immediately and as soon as we relax our vigilance.

Up to now, the US has had about 500,000 infections. That is around 0.15% percent of the US population. The remaining 99.85% of the population are just as vulnerable today as they were before all this started. The US went from 15 known cases to 500,000 in around seven weeks. (Likely, the initial number wasn't 15, but larger, but the point stands: exponential growth means that things go from very small to unimaginably large very quickly.)

World-wide, even after most countries have brought their outbreaks under control, we are looking at a long period of whack-a-mole. I cannot see any real relaxation in the social distancing rules without paying the price in more deaths. When more than 99% of the population still have no immunity, any relaxation will instantly send those numbers skyrocketing again.

We will probably figure out some better treatment regimes over the next few months, which would help reduce the severity of the disease and the number of fatalities. But the only real answer here is a vaccine, which we won't have for at least another year, by the looks of things. And it'll take a while to vaccinate 7+ billion people because there is a limit to the rate of manufacture of a vaccine.

It will be interesting to see what decisions various countries make when the time comes to decide who gets the vaccine, and in what order. I can hazard a guess: overwhelmingly, if history is any guide, the vaccine will first go to the wealthy. The poor always get shafted the most.


----------



## Michi

Interesting article here that discusses the correlation between how decisively and how long a city implements lock-down, and the effects of the lock-down on economic recovery after the Spanish flu.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/lockdowns-flatten-the-economic-curve-too/


----------



## Midsummer

Michi said:


> The poor always get shafted the most.



Which is why people who had already embraced the facts expressed concerns over the fate of India, parts of Africa, and Indonesia. 

Haiti a very close neighbor of mine. They live in poverty and ignorance. Their social hygiene is weak. Port au Prince is over crowded and ripe for epidemics. Their hospital health care system is generally outdated and limited. They have an unstable political system and terrible resources (what they have had, has been largely squandered). They can barely afford to test. They can not afford ventilators.

I doubt all the bodies will make it to the morgue. In the summer heat, body decomposition is accelerated.


----------



## Midsummer

Michi said:


> Interesting article here that discusses the correlation between how decisively and how long a city implements lock-down, and the effects of the lock-down on economic recovery after the Spanish flu.
> 
> https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/lockdowns-flatten-the-economic-curve-too/



I believe this is what has been under discussion. Thank you. The authors background gives me pause and while what she wrote could be right. I have lost faith in people who state "facts" and opinions when they have not invested the time to become experts, much less leading experts. I tire of finding multiple errors in the writings and pronouncements of our "top reporters" today.


----------



## Michi

Midsummer said:


> I have lost faith in people who state "facts" and opinions when they have not invested the time to become experts, much less leading experts. I tire of finding multiple errors in the writings and pronouncements of our "top reporters" today.


Yes. Especially with every man and his dog putting his five cents worth in, it can be hard to separate the wheat from the chaff.

I have no good answers, other than to personally learn as much as possible about the field, and to listen to experts. In general, academics from reputable institutions are just that, experts. They don't always agree with each other either, of course. But, if someone has managed to become a professor at a (real) university, that is usually an indication of high competence. The person is likely to be a more trustworthy source of information than Facebook and Twitter.


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> World-wide, even after most countries have brought their outbreaks under control, we are looking at a long period of whack-a-mole. I cannot see any real relaxation in the social distancing rules without paying the price in more deaths. When more than 99% of the population still have no immunity, any relaxation will instantly send those numbers skyrocketing again.



There will be a long period of whack-a-mole. 

That said, I do suspect there will be a relaxation in social distancing rules once numbers become small and controllable (i.e. a manageable case-load for contact tracing, testing and isolation). What does relaxation mean? I similarly don't think life will go back to normal until a vaccine is created but it will become _more_ normal. In Australia they ratcheted up the restrictions. Although poorly communicated, the public was made aware of increasing levels of restrictions. In retrospect, there is some benefit to this approach over the "go hard, go fast" strategy. The public now has some idea of the "layers" and what relaxation might look like. It seems logical to me it will look like the reverse.

For instance the two-person gathering will be raised to ten. You can now leave the house for "non-essential" reasons. There is a good chance they will bounce around these upper-level restrictions in response to case numbers. Sometime later (12-18 months?), after we figure out how to handle SARS-CoV-2 (vaccine?), they will be able to relax restrictions all the way to normal international boarder control.




Michi said:


> It will be interesting to see what decisions various countries make when the time comes to decide who gets the vaccine, and in what order. I can hazard a guess: overwhelmingly, if history is any guide, the vaccine will first go to the wealthy. The poor always get shafted the most.



Very! And who profits? Will the IP be open-access? Will big-pharma be able price gouge?

I don't think we are so far gone in Australia that it will be left completely to the free market. I _hope_ they would distribute it to health-care professionals first (every last one of them). Then police, firefighters, teachers, the elderly and pregnant. Then the rest of us..... then the politicians 






Michi said:


> Interesting article here that discusses the correlation between how decisively and how long a city implements lock-down



Keep an eye on the Kiwis... They are shooting for the elimination approach (not mitigation). "Go hard, go fast" to stomp out domestic transmission and continue to vigilantly monitor the boarders. This may allow them to carefully return to 'normal' sooner than under the mitigation approach.


----------



## Midsummer

Luftmensch said:


> There will be a long period of whack-a-mole.
> 
> That said, I do suspect there will be a relaxation in social distancing rules once numbers become small and controllable (i.e. a manageable case-load for contact tracing, testing and isolation). What does relaxation mean? I similarly don't think life will go back to normal until a vaccine is created but it will become _more_ normal.



"Until a vaccine is created" or there is sufficient herd immunity from many members of the population having been infected and recovered.


----------



## Matus

The economy will be in tatters before we reach heard immunity, so our only real hope is vaccine


----------



## Midsummer

Matus said:


> The economy will be in tatters before we reach heard immunity, so our only real hope is vaccine



Certainly true and I doubt we see things too differently. I just hope we do not see difficulties with vaccine development like we have with HIV. And yes I know HIV is a "special" virus in its behavior. I am not satisfied with hanging all of our planning on the eventual development of an effective abundant vaccine. 

While I see no harm in hoping for its materialization. I feel we need to be prepared for more than one eventuality. Stay safe everyone!


----------



## Michi

Midsummer said:


> "Until a vaccine is created" or there is sufficient herd immunity from many members of the population having been infected and recovered.


Yes, herd immunity is the other option. Unfortunately, that doesn't kick in until we have 70% or more immune people. Assuming a mortality rate of 1%, that means about 200,000 dead Australians. That option is going to be a very hard sell…


----------



## ian

Midsummer said:


> I believe this is what has been under discussion. Thank you. The authors background gives me pause and while what she wrote could be right. I have lost faith in people who state "facts" and opinions when they have not invested the time to become experts, much less leading experts. I tire of finding multiple errors in the writings and pronouncements of our "top reporters" today.



Sorry, wasn’t she just summarizing an article by researchers at MIT and the Federal Reserve? I guess if you don’t trust her summary, you can read the paper, but I appreciate that kind of journalism. Not many people are going to go seek out primary source material. We need expositors.


----------



## Luftmensch

Midsummer said:


> "Until a vaccine is created" or there is sufficient herd immunity from many members of the population having been infected and recovered.



I think the medical science community is optimistic that a vaccine can be created. This Nature News Explainer article (Coronavirus vaccines: five key questions as trials begin) lists some open questions on developing a vaccine. Failing to create a vaccine is a possibility (I hope remote!). I wonder what the decision making process will be like in that grim scenario?


----------



## Luftmensch

Luftmensch said:


> the elderly and pregnant





Maybe I need the oxford comma here... 

(that would be a high risk category)


----------



## Midsummer

ian said:


> Sorry, wasn’t she just summarizing an article by researchers at MIT and the Federal Reserve? I guess if you don’t trust her summary, you can read the paper, but I appreciate that kind of journalism. Not many people are going to go seek out primary source material. We need expositors.



Thank you Ian. I agree it is nice to have things brought to our attention.


----------



## AT5760

National Geographic had an article that I read today talking about a vaccine. It said that the fastest developed vaccine was for the mumps in the mid-1960s. That took four years apparently. I don’t know the science behind this, so I am merely repeating my understanding of the article, but the early vaccine trials are for a type of vaccine that has never proven successful in humans. Do we have any reason to believe that an efficacious vaccine in fewer than 18 months is anything but a hope and a prayer?

So what is the interim plan? I can’t imagine the global economy can sustain a 2-3 year stay-at-home order? From what I can tell the US government doesn’t have any real ideas. Have any other governments come up with a plan to deal with COVID-19 being intermingled with the population until 2023 or so?


----------



## ian

AT5760 said:


> National Geographic had an article that I read today talking about a vaccine. It said that the fastest developed vaccine was for the mumps in the mid-1960s. That took four years apparently. I don’t know the science behind this, so I am merely repeating my understanding of the article, but the early vaccine trials are for a type of vaccine that has never proven successful in humans. Do we have any reason to believe that an efficacious vaccine in fewer than 18 months is anything but a hope and a prayer?
> 
> So what is the interim plan? I can’t imagine the global economy can sustain a 2-3 year stay-at-home order? From what I can tell the US government doesn’t have any real ideas. Have any other governments come up with a plan to deal with COVID-19 being intermingled with the population until 2023 or so?



Not sure, obviously. I hope that the historical data (4 yrs) is not relevant though, since there hasn’t previously been such enormous pressure to develop a vaccine on short notice.


----------



## Matus

English virologists are supposed to start first vaccine tests on humans in few weeks. Let’s see ..


----------



## AT5760

A more modern example would be Ebola, that took more than five years. We can hope for a quickly developed vaccine, but us (our governments) should be planning for a timeline consistent with historical timelines to develop vaccines. Then, as @Michi mentioned, you have the lag time of producing about 7 billion of these things.


----------



## ian

I agree about planning, but still think historical timelines may not be relevant. Ebola was terrible in places where it was rampant, but the whole world wasn’t concentrated on finding a vaccine asap. Allow me my rays of misguided hope.


----------



## Luftmensch

ian said:


> Not sure, obviously. I hope that the historical data (4 yrs) is not relevant though, since there hasn’t previously been such enormous pressure to develop a vaccine on short notice.





AT5760 said:


> A more modern example would be Ebola, that took more than five years. We can hope for a quickly developed vaccine, but us (our governments) should be planning for a timeline consistent with historical timelines to develop vaccines.



All good points. I guess we're not starting with a blank sheet. Previous research on SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV aught to help accelerate things.... I hope! 



Edit: It is also great to see the research community sharing information and the publishing world expediating potentially useful data/findings.


----------



## Bill13

Some good news, our tears do not contain the virus. https://www.practiceupdate.com/c/98...newsletter&rid=NTU2MjE4MTAyOTMS1&lid=10332481


----------



## Bill13

Another article about the timeline for developing a vaccine. https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMp2005630


----------



## Bill13

Another interesting article with thoughts about waiting for full scale trials to read out before trying medicines during a pandemic. Looks like this is only for drugs already approved with a safety profile that doctors/medical establishment are familiar with. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200409140015.htm


----------



## chinacats

FWIW, they've been doing vaccine trials in Washington state for almost a month now.

We need mass testing now!


----------



## Bert2368

chinacats said:


> FWIW, they've been doing vaxxine trials in Washington state for almost a month now



Link to sources, please?

Thanks-

(Edit)
Googled, found information on at least 3 vaccines being tested on healthy volunteers in WA state. You go, volunteers! Thanks!


----------



## WildBoar

NIH is looking for volunteers to participate in some vaccine trials.


----------



## ian

Bill13 said:


> Some good news, our tears do not contain the virus. https://www.practiceupdate.com/c/98...newsletter&rid=NTU2MjE4MTAyOTMS1&lid=10332481



For some reason, I find this hilarious. I’m not sure why. Something about all the stress causing us all to cry, and that people might have been worried about tears as a method of transmission... mostly the former. I’d relay this heartening news to my psychotherapist wife (lots of tears in her profession), but it’s all telehealth now and I’m pretty sure virtual tears were already known not to be contagious.

I think my sense of humor is deteriorating.


----------



## HRC_64

ian said:


> Something about all the stress causing us all to cry, and that people might have been worried about tears as a method of transmission...



This actually happened with the more deadly Ebola virus...even if you survived the horrors of that disease... it stuck around in your tears and cause blindness up to 40% of the time. 


> Uveitis is the most common finding during EVD convalescence and may lead to severe vision impairment or blindness in 40% of affected individuals. Ocular complications leading to vision loss include cataract, retinal scarring, optic neuropathy, hypotony and phthisis bulbi. The pathogenesis of eye disease in EVD survivors likely involves Ebola virus persistence, severe inflammation and tissue edema, which present as acute, rapidly progressive disease or chronic, smoldering disease.


Source: "An update on ocular complications of Ebola virus disease"
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5988239/pdf/nihms970448.pdf


----------



## Bill13

Not saying covid is not scary but ebola was multitudes scarier. And I am also not comparing likelihood of contracting it.


----------



## ian

Yea, also not saying having a virus in one’s tears is not a thing, or unimportant. I was more illustrating how my sense of humor is grasping at straws nowadays. Interesting and sad study about ebola. Didn’t realize it could persist so long after the patient had recovered.


----------



## Bill13

Originally I thought the higher rate of death for males might be due to lifestyle choices, thankfully people a lot smarter than me are posting other ideas so I can get back to boozing, etc..https://cancerdiscovery.aacrjournal...arly/2020/04/10/2159-8290.CD-20-0451.full.pdf


----------



## Michi

Bill13 said:


> Originally I thought the higher rate of death for males might be due to lifestyle choices, thankfully people a lot smarter than me are posting other ideas so I can get back to boozing, etc..https://cancerdiscovery.aacrjournal...arly/2020/04/10/2159-8290.CD-20-0451.full.pdf





Bill13 said:


> https://cancerdiscovery.aacrjournal...arly/2020/04/10/2159-8290.CD-20-0451.full.pdf


Well, it's interesting. But, really, all this paper says is "it's possible that some cancer inhibiting drugs might be useful in the context of coronavirus. It would be nice to do some research to find out whether this is actually right."


----------



## Michi

Very well-written article about the time _after_ COVID-19:

https://forge.medium.com/prepare-for-the-ultimate-gaslighting-6a8ce3f0a0e0


----------



## Luftmensch

Bill13 said:


> Some good news, our tears do not contain the virus.





ian said:


> For some reason, I find this hilarious. I’m not sure why. Something about all the stress causing us all to cry, and that people might have been worried about tears as a method of transmission... mostly the former. I’d relay this heartening news to my psychotherapist wife (lots of tears in her profession), but it’s all telehealth now and I’m pretty sure virtual tears were already known not to be contagious.
> 
> I think my sense of humor is deteriorating.



No... no... your humour is just fine. That is hilarious. I laughed as well!


----------



## Bill13

Written by Epoch Times which has strong ties to China but is anti China. However this also gives them a better ability to find out what started this whole mess. They put together a lot of interesting pieces.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Alcohol & gun sales are up


----------



## WildBoar

Keith Sinclair said:


> Alcohol & gun sales are up


...and so is hand lotion... Any correlation?


----------



## daveb

Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms.

Weekend shopping.


----------



## M1k3

No blow? No hookers I get, 6 foot rule and all.


----------



## bkultra

daveb said:


> Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms.
> 
> Weekend shopping.



Assuming I ever get back to the FL house I'll have to look you up next time. Those are my favorite hobbies.



M1k3 said:


> No blow? No hookers I get, 6 foot rule and all.



What are previous hobbies... I'll take life before marriage for $1000 Alex.


----------



## daveb

ATF. They're so ingrained in the American psyche there's a Federal agency to protect them. Mk13 - a different agency handles the blow, or so I've been told....


----------



## WildBoar

daveb said:


> ATF. They're so ingrained in the American psyche there's a Federal agency to protect them. Mk13 - a different agency handles the blow, or so I've been told....


Likely MS-13...


----------



## Luftmensch

daveb said:


> Tobacco





M1k3 said:


> No hookers I get, 6 foot rule and all



Yeah... I have only been using hookahs since lock-down... how else are you going to share a smoko with your mates and maintain social distancing?


----------



## Michi

Bill13 said:


> Written by Epoch Times which has strong ties to China but is anti China.
> […] They put together a lot of interesting pieces.


This is not a documentary, but conspiracy theory.

The idea that coronavirus was engineered has been debunked weeks ago. Here is just one article out of many detailing why that theory is nonsense:

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-not-human-made-lab-genetic-analysis-nature

That article doesn't offer the same level of convenient sound bites, selective editing, and rumour and innuendo. Instead, it deals in facts and science. Reading the article requires a moderate amount of literacy, an ability to focus, and some scientific education and critical thinking. Which is why many people will not bother to read it, let alone understand it 

As to the journalistic integrity of Epoch Times, this is most certainly not a publication that even vaguely tries to be objective and unbiased. Wikipedia has a quite extensive page about it:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times

It is interesting to note that:

_"In December 2019, Facebook announced it removed a large network of accounts, pages, and groups linked to The BL and Epoch Media Group for coordinated inauthentic behavior on behalf of a foreign actor."_

and:

_"As Facebook banned The Epoch Times from advertising, the newspaper shifted its spending to YouTube. The Epoch Times has spent more than $1 million on YouTube ads, some promoting conspiracy theories, The New York Times reported in February 2020."_


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> This is not a documentary, but conspiracy theory.



100% agree.


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> Yeah... I have only been using hookahs since lock-down... how else are you going to share a smoko with your mates and maintain social distancing?


I recommend using an extension hose, for added safety


----------



## Bert2368

Bill13 said:


> Written by Epoch Times which has strong ties to China but is anti China. However this also gives them a better ability to find out what started this whole mess.



Epoch Times is Falun Gong, it was created to serve their purposes. To put it mildly, they are not an unbiased source of news.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Bert2368 said:


> Epoch Times is Falun Gong, it was created to serve their purposes. To put it mildly, they are not an unbiased source of news.



This is true but it is not all black & white. Qigong or Chi gung is a movement & breathing meditation. A big part of Falun Gong spiritual practice. 

In 1990's Chinese Communist party viewed Falun Gong as a threat due to its size, independence, and spiritual teaching. In 90's around 70 million in China. It began negative coverage in state run press. In June 1999 10,000 Falun Going practitioners gathered in Beijing to request legal recognition and freedom from state interference.

Next month in July the Communist party initiated a Nationwide crackdown to eradicate the practice. Many in detention forced labor, psy abuse & torture. Thousands died from abuse in custody. Has been reported (not from Epoch Times) that tens of thousands may have been killed to supply China's organ transplant industry. I got this info on line, but remember reading about it when it happened. What news is straight these days everyone has a agenda and misinformation is often the norm. A bunch of talking heads & even when proven to be wrong never apologise. 

Clint Eastwood's latest movie shows a true story of how this happens.

I believe in freedom of whatever your spiritual practice.


----------



## Marek07

Jokes aside, I think using a hookah with others would result in an increased likelihood of transmission - regardless of hose length.


----------



## Michi

Marek07 said:


> Jokes aside, I think using a hookah with others would result in an increased likelihood of transmission - regardless of hose length.


A bit like sharing needles…


----------



## Marek07

Keith Sinclair said:


> <_snip_>What news is straight these days everyone has a agenda and misinformation is often the norm. A bunch of talking heads & even when proven to be wrong never apologise. <_snip_>


The only thing we can do is read broadly and corroborate stories rather than accept the latest trending conspiracy theories. Personally, when I come across unfamiliar new sources, I like to check them on https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ They seem to evaluate media bias quite well IMO.


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> I recommend using an extension hose, for added safety



I can't... ..... I used it up for the social distancing


daveb said:


> Alcohol


----------



## Bert2368

Keith Sinclair said:


> I believe in freedom of whatever your spiritual practice.



By all means. I certainly don't know the answer, all I have are questions.

This Time magazine interview with Li Hongzhi, Falun Gong's founder is interesting. Read at least to the part about aliens from other planets and dimensions occupying cloned human bodies.

http://content.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2053761,00.html

All in all, I seem to hear strange echoes of Nation of Islam recently enrolling scientology into their version of Islam with flying saucers (or are they time machines?) beaming up the faithful.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFO_religion#Nation_of_Islam&ved=2ahUKEwjetM2mkuXoAhUDX80KHWlOChoQpYkCKAEwAHoECAUQCA&usg=AOvVaw2lHgdqv65niFU3vJYFJi3e

It's all (equally) good.


----------



## panda

Luftmensch said:


> I can't... ..... I used it up for the social distancing
> 
> View attachment 76863


Been years since I last did one of these. Would love to give it another go.


----------



## Michi

Bert2368 said:


> Read at least to the part about aliens from other planets and dimensions occupying cloned human bodies.


Wow. Thank you so much for posting that link!

_"The second reason is that since the beginning of this century, aliens have begun to invade the human mind and its ideology and culture. The aliens come from other planets. The names that I use for these planets are different . Some are from dimensions that human beings have not yet discovered."_

Smart man, that Li Hongzhi, I'm impressed!

I wonder whether he's heard of the Raëlians?


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Mmm interesting thought they were more traditional eastern Religion.

Reminds me of that John Carpenter flic. THEY LIVE . Put on special sunglasses & see the world as it really is.


----------



## Luftmensch

Bert2368 said:


> Li Hongzhi, Falun Gong's founder is interesting. Read at least to the part about aliens from other planets and dimensions occupying cloned human bodies.



Wow... it is on wikipedia as well! 

I never knew this was part of Falun Gong (not that I knew much about it).... You're right... There is a fascinating overlap between some of these modern movements. Must be something buried in the collective unconscious...


----------



## Luftmensch

Keith Sinclair said:


> Reminds me of that John Carpenter flic. THEY LIVE . Put on special sunglasses & see the world as it really is.



Such an awesome-terrible flick... (or terrible-awesome? Maybe just awesome...)

OBEY!!


----------



## Talim

Shen Yun is also Falun Gong if you didn't know.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Millions in China practice Chi Gung or Tai Chi

Chi is the same life force energy as Ki in Japan. When I was 20 years old was taking Tai Kwan Do. One of my classmates uncle was into Aikido. The master Koichi Tohei was coming to the dojo in Hawaii. We went to meet him. At one point he asked for volunteer I accepted. He lightly touched outside edge mouth cheek area one finger each side. I went flying back on to the mats. Was first experience of chi energy.

His book Ki In Daily Life helped me. I could feel quite a bit of ki just by following simple steps and letting go.

It even helped me at work would come in and see four or five banquet sheets hanging up. Totally relaxed & calm. With in minutes would know what I needed to order how much work needed to be done in limited time frame would go over what had to be done with my two helpers & we would go to it. 

This is old teaching. Attuning oneself to Ki life energy of the universe. 

Aliens, ego mind stuff nothing to do with it.


----------



## XooMG

Removed belligerent comment. Stay safe.


----------



## Michi

Michi said:


> "In other words, the U.K. is locked down for a NET increase of as little as 6,600 or so deaths. Nobody wants to say it, but even Ferguson admits that the vast majority of those dying from COVID-19 would likely have died within the year anyways. There, we said it."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Awesome! Everything is just fine. Seeing that, as of this moment, worldometer reports 7,097 deaths from coronavirus in the UK. Oh yes, just in case you missed it: when lots of people die from coronavirus, that doesn't mean that other people stop dying from what people normally die from.
Click to expand...

One week has passed since I wrote this. In that time, the death toll in the UK has gone from 7,097 to 12,107. That's an additional 5,000 people who have died in one week.

I believe it is accurate to state that the guy who wrote the grassfire article is, at best, incompetent.


----------



## Michi

There also appears to be some amount of under-reporting because the UK does not count people who die in nursing home and private residences, whereas other countries, such as France, do:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/world/europe/britain-coronavirus-death-economic-toll.html


----------



## HRC_64

> State Department warned in 2018 that Wuhan lab testing bats for coronavirus had sloppy safety precautions and had the potential to cause a 'new SARS-like pandemic'



Not suprising.



> The US National Institute of Health, a government agency, also gave a $3.7million research grant to the WIV to carry out research on bats from caves in Yunnan, more than 1,000 miles away. Scientists have traced the sequencing of the COVID-19 genome to Yunnan...



Not suprising



> Furthermore, another lab located in Wuhan, belonging to the Chinese Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, was also conducting research on animal coronaviruses and was located next to the Wuhan Seafood Market. That lab only had a level two biosafety certification meaning its security protocols were more relaxed than the Institute of Virology.
> 
> Some experts say that these concerns over whether the virus could have escaped from a Chinese lab should be investigated.
> 
> *'I don't think it's a conspiracy theory. I think it's a legitimate question *that needs to be investigated and answered,' University of California Berkeley researcher Xiao Qiang told the Post.
> 
> 'To understand exactly how this originated is critical knowledge for preventing this from happening in the future.'



Don't tell KKF


----------



## Michi

It is not inconceivable that the virus escaped from a lab by someone getting infected there. But that's a long way from claiming that the virus was artificially created by splicing bits of other viruses together, or deliberately released.

The genome analysis indicates the virus is of natural origin. MERS and SARS originated in bats without any bioengineering. There are bits of bat genome in coronavirus. Yes, I know, they didn't sell bats at the Wuhan market. But they sold other animals that may well have been in contact with bats.

Occam's razor says that the simplest explanation is almost always the correct one. When there is a choice between a conspiracy and a stuff-up, it almost always is a stuff-up. Although, we need to keep the possibility in mind that, actually, it's the 5G cell towers wot did it (not!) 

Only the Chinese will know for sure whether or not the virus escaped from a lab. If it did, I'm sure they'll be a lot more careful in future. That's little consolation for all the people who are dying, I know


----------



## ian

@HRC_64, you quoted:

“Some experts say that these concerns over whether the virus could have escaped from a Chinese lab should be investigated. 

*'I don't think it's a conspiracy theory. I think it's a legitimate question *that needs to be investigated and answered,' University of California Berkeley researcher Xiao Qiang told the Post.”

This kind of reporting ticks me off. Xiao Qiang is a researcher in internet freedom, and other things digital. They seem to be implying he’s an expert on the Covid outbreak. Red flag, imo, if they can’t find a better ‘expert’ and try to hide his actual specialty.

Maybe it came from a lab, but unless people with relevant expertise start saying it’s likely, I’ll continue to ignore these articles.


----------



## MarlSounds

It's an unprecedented and shocking time for the hospitality and service sector employees and company owners and my heart goes out to everyone working in this space right now. And, unfortunately, when the lockdown/shutdown lifts, it is likely that social distancing will make restaurant visits untenable. Wait staff will still have to wait tables and liaise with the kitchen. The kitchen team still needs to work closely. Customers will miss a busy ambience - the hustle, bustle and banter. So the bounce back is going to be slow and painful. 

It's not yet the time to be retrospective, but to get whatever planning and cost reduction action done quickly and orderly, and to hunker down at home. We're all in this together. Please be safe and look after yourself.


----------



## HRC_64

ian said:


> ...unless people with relevant expertise start saying it...



LMAO.



> “What we thought we knew, we don’t know,” said Dr. Nile Cemalovic, an intensive care physician at Lincoln Medical Center in the Bronx.


----------



## rob

MarlSounds said:


> It's an unprecedented and shocking time for the hospitality and service sector employees and company owners and my heart goes out to everyone working in this space right now. And, unfortunately, when the lockdown/shutdown lifts, it is likely that social distancing will make restaurant visits untenable. Wait staff will still have to wait tables and liaise with the kitchen. The kitchen team still needs to work closely. Customers will miss a busy ambience - the hustle, bustle and banter. So the bounce back is going to be slow and painful.
> 
> It's not yet the time to be retrospective, but to get whatever planning and cost reduction action done quickly and orderly, and to hunker down at home. We're all in this together. Please be safe and look after yourself.


Unfortunately If and when lockdowns or shutdowns are lifted there will be a spike in cases and more people will die. I truly feel for all the business’s effected( I am retail and have zero income) I firmly believe the best chance of minimizing loss is to have unity. Shut down and stay safe.


----------



## Bert2368

> Unfortunately If and when lockdowns or shutdowns are lifted there will be a spike in cases and more people will die. I truly feel for all the business’s effected( I am retail and have zero income) I firmly believe the best chance of minimizing loss is to have unity. Shut down and stay safe.



This:



And this:

https://m.slashdot.org/story/369282


----------



## rob

MarlSounds said:


> It's an unprecedented and shocking time for the hospitality and service sector employees and company owners and my heart goes out to everyone working in this space right now. And, unfortunately, when the lockdown/shutdown lifts, it is likely that social distancing will make restaurant visits untenable. Wait staff will still have to wait tables and liaise with the kitchen. The kitchen team still needs to work closely. Customers will miss a busy ambience - the hustle, bustle and banter. So the bounce back is going to be slow and painful.
> 
> It's not yet the time to be retrospective, but to get whatever planning and cost reduction action done quickly and orderly, and to hunker down at home. We're all in this together. Please be safe and look after yourself.


PS. if i had a choice of any country in the world to be in now, New Zealand would be it. Jacinta is an amazing leader who has approached this situation with intelligence, compassion and empathy.


----------



## HRC_64

Lets not look to experts, but lets look at what the "experts" actually said....
[source>https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9.pdf]


> In theory, it *is possible that SARS-CoV-2 acquired RBD mutations (Fig. 1a) during adaptation to passage in cell culture*, as has been observed in studies of SARS-CoV11.


This is one of the passage "supposed to debunk" the WIV origin theory, saying in essence, its possible but not likely it was a lab contruct because the alternative "provides a much stronger and more parsimonious explanation".

Herel's the alternative hypothesis:


> The finding of SARS-CoV- like coronaviruses from * pangolins with nearly identical RBDs, however, provides a much stronger and more parsimonious explanation * of how SARS-CoV-2 acquired these via recombination or mutation19.



This however, is not a statement of fact, or evidence of any kind. 

This is the second passage in the original article:


> The genomic features described here may explain in part the infectiousness and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. Although the evidence shows that SARS- CoV-2 is not a purposefully manipulated virus, it is currently impossible to prove or disprove the other theories of its origin described here. However, since we observed all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage site, in related coronaviruses in nature, *we do not believe that any type of laboratory- based scenario is plausible.*



Again, this last sentence is purely speculative.


----------



## Michi

Bert2368 said:


> This:


I agree with the gist of the video. I have to quote myself here:


> World-wide, even after most countries have brought their outbreaks under control, we are looking at a long period of whack-a-mole. I cannot see any real relaxation in the social distancing rules without paying the price in more deaths. When more than 99% of the population still have no immunity, any relaxation will instantly send those numbers skyrocketing again.


The video presents an argument that is too simplistic though, because it ignores herd immunity. No virus can infect 100% of the population. Once infections get to about 70%, herd immunity kicks in and slows the spread of the virus.

However, unfortunately, this does not change the core message of the video. Herd immunity or not, if we just "let it rip", we are looking at probably more than 100 million deaths world-wide. And, with it, utter and complete destruction of any semblance to normality.

Realistically, we are stuck with social distancing until after we have a vaccine and have managed to immunise enough people to make it safe for the ones that are not (yet) immunised.


----------



## Michi

HRC_64 said:


> Again, this last sentence is purely speculative.


What truly puzzles me in all this is why some people want to so desperately believe that there was a conspiracy, or that the virus was manufactured, or that it was deliberately released. What's to be gained by believing that?

The virus is here, it's real, and we need to stop it, no matter how it got into the world. Relaxing social distancing will most definitely _not_ stop it.

I'll be watching with keen interest as to how things go when countries relax the rules. Italy, Spain, and Austria are taking the first very cautious steps toward that right now. I sincerely hope that this will not turn out to be a move they'll regret. The risk of ending up right back where they came from is very real.

I think what we'll see is flare-ups of infections once the rules are relaxed, followed by clamp-downs, followed by relaxation and flare-ups and clamp-downs again, etc. After a few cycles of this, people might be more prepared to accept the reality of the situation. A vaccine is the way out. Pretty much nothing else is.


----------



## HRC_64

Just to continue...since nobody will believe their own judgement, here are some "footnote" comments with a bit of context.


HRC_64 said:


> Lets not look to experts, but lets look at what the "experts" actually said....



The "pangolin theory" was undermined if not completely debunked ... >


> [D]espite their spike proteins, pangolin coronaviruses bear many differences to SARS-CoV-2 that make *pangolins unlikely to be the source of infection*, The New York Times reported.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/science/pangolin-coronavirus.html


> But all the pangolin viruses lack a certain furin-like feature (another protein), a key identifying feature of the new coronavirus, which it uses to jump to humans and latch on. It is likely that there was yet another intermediate animal that mutated the virus before it jumped to humans;


>https://www.livescience.com/did-coronavirus-evolve-in-dogs-after-bats.html

https://academic.oup.com/mbe/article/doi/10.1093/molbev/msaa094/5819559

The "implausibility of accident" theory is so weak it doesn't need to be "debunked"

The simplest evidence-backed argument is that the chinese were (commonly) observed studying BSL-3 grade pathogens at BSL-2 (or sub-standard bio-security arrangements)...Meaning an outbreak would be entirely plausible.

https://thebulletin.org/2020/03/exp...er-it-could-have-leaked-from-a-research-lab/#

More intuitively, when SARS jumped from bats to humans via Civets, the first outbreaks were dound in rural areas, near the bats. SARS-2 was first found in urban environment....a city of 11 million people 500 miles away from where the bats/civets lived...

This means/implies that the intermediate host was never in touch with humans (?) except for this one animal (?) that (By luck) ended up on somebody's dinner plate or shopping cart at Wuhan wet market. 

So we should remain sceptical of easy explanations no matter from what side teh come from.


----------



## HRC_64

Michi said:


> What truly puzzles me in all this is why some people want to so desperately believe that there was a conspiracy...



You seem rather desperate to use the word "conspiracy"
... but eveytime you say this ...
you're analysis turns out to be incorrect.


----------



## Luftmensch

There is a stinky hubris to all this....

As has been said before... there was SARS-CoV-1, MERS-CoV and Ebola. The fact that they didnt happen in white-prosperous nations meant a large chunk of the OECD could pretend it was a far away problem. Epidemiologists have been screaming about the risks of pandemics for a long while now.

At home we have seen small scale events of Hendra virus and lyssavirus. These are deadly infections that were not created in a lab and did not arise because people were tearing the heads off bats. This is the nature of zoonotic disease...

Rather than finger pointing, which has an undercurrent of racism, the international community should be working collaboratively to minimise zoonotic hot-spots such as wet markets and aspects of intensive farming. This is sensitive as it requires challenging the hygiene of cultural practices - being accusatory is unlikely to yield cooperation.


----------



## Michi

HRC_64 said:


> So we should remain sceptical of easy explanations no matter from what side teh come from.


Sure. As I said:


> It is not inconceivable that the virus escaped from a lab by someone getting infected there.


Chances are that we'll never know for certain. And, to me, it doesn't matter because, at this point, it is irrelevant.

What's relevant is beating the virus.


----------



## HRC_64

Luftmensch said:


> Rather than finger pointing, which has an undercurrent of racism, the international community should be working collaboratively ....



Please take your racist ******** somewhere else......if this thing came out of russia and russia was hiding the patient zero etc....you have the same problem and people would be similarly critical. The international community needs to understand the origin of the virus to fight it. You need patient zero, and you need to know the natural history of the pathogen (intermediate hosts, etc) to fighht re-emergence.


----------



## HRC_64

Michi said:


> And, to me, it doesn't matter because, at this point, it is irrelevant.



Again, you're simply wrong. The origins of the viruse have scientific/practical value to fight the pandemic.


----------



## Michi

HRC_64 said:


> The origins of the viruse have scientific/practical value to fight the pandemic.


I honestly don't see why that would be so. There are more cases in several countries now than there are in China (USA, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, and UK), and China has had fewer deaths than most of those countries.

Given the current situation, where the virus is pretty much everywhere, why does it matter where patient zero was? We know it started in Wuhan. That narrows it down to a few square kilometres. Isn't that accurate enough?

Can you explain why we need to have a more precise origin of the virus than that in order to fight the pandemic more effectively?


----------



## Luftmensch

HRC_64 said:


> Please take your racist ******** somewhere else......if this thing came out of russia and russia was hiding the patient zero etc....you have the same problem and people would be similarly critical.



Apologies if that is offensive to you. I am not calling you a racist. I have no idea if you are racist or not... I doubt you are... and I certainly hope you are not.

But arguments that assign _intention/fault_ to this disease (a synthetic disease that was deliberately or accidentally released by the Chinese) do strike me as having racist undertones. They are not widely supported and appeal to suspicion. At the very least it is a bad faith attitude that prevents collaborative spirit during a global event that requires international collaboration. 

The "plausibility" argument is a slippery slope. Why defend "plausible" explanations over "likely" explanations. Sure: it is plausible this a weaponised disease that was accidentally leaked. That doesn't at all make it likely.


----------



## HRC_64

Luftmensch said:


> The "plausibility" argument is a slippery slope. Why defend "plausible" explanations over "likely" explanations. Sure: it is plausible this a weaponised disease that was accidentally leaked. That doesn't at all make it likely.



You have this completely backwards. The PUBLISHED AUTHORS earlier cited "plausibiliiy" to support to pangolin theory ("likely") over the lab accident theory ("implausible"). A proper analysis has shown this is wrong: pangolin theory seems unlkely, and the lab accident theory remains VERY plausible (and seems equally if not more likely).


----------



## HRC_64

Luftmensch said:


> But arguments that assign _intention/fault_ to this disease...



Wanted to address this "intent" comment separately. You don't need any intent to develop WMD. A classic case study is VX nerve agent. This was derived from a PESTICIDE that was found to work on MAMMALS. By accident basically.


> In 1954, ICI put one of them on the market under the trade name Amiton. It was subsequently withdrawn, as it was too toxic for safe use. The toxicity did not go unnoticed, and samples of it were sent to the British Armed Forces research facility at Porton Down for evaluation. After the evaluation was complete, several members of this class of compounds became a new group of nerve agents, the V agents. The best-known of these is probably VX...



Notice the title slide of this presentation (discussing the history of VX) and its allusion to "public heath":


> 'Public Health in Reverse’: History, Innovation and the Dual- Use Problem of Biological and Chemical Warfare


>https://www.who.int/global_health_histories/seminars/Brian_Balmer_presentation.pdf

Its not hard at all to imagine similar parallel could happen with a biological pathogen in "non-intentional" industrial research. Likewise any release of this pathogen would have "public health" consequences (accident or otherwise).

There is sufficient basis for the concerns people have here to take them seriously.


----------



## pistachio

HRC_64 said:


> Wanted to address this "intent" comment separately. You don't need any intent to develop WMD. A classic case study is VX nerve agent. This was derived from a PESTICIDE that was found to work on MAMMALS. By accident basically.
> 
> 
> Notice the title slide of this presentation (discussing the history of VX) and its allusion to "public heath":
> 
> >https://www.who.int/global_health_histories/seminars/Brian_Balmer_presentation.pdf
> 
> Its not hard at all to imagine similar parallel could happen with a biological pathogen in "non-intentional" industrial research. Likewise any release of this pathogen would have "public health" consequences (accident or otherwise).
> 
> There is sufficient basis for the concerns people have here to take them seriously.



It is actually much harder to imagine the development of a biological pathogen through non-intentional industrial research compared with a chemical compound with unanticipated toxicity. Generally when you mess with biological systems something breaks. The probability of an unintended gain of function is ridiculously small. By conventional standards it is surprisingly tricky to make modifications in biological systems even when the technology and system is relatively well understood. Drawing a parallel between the incidental development of toxic chemicals and supposed incidental creation of a pathogen only makes sense if one has some fundamental misconceptions about how biological systems work.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Many virus cross animals to man. And the other way around. 

First cases in Wuhan market genetic analysis of covid19 suggest it came from bats. another animal could act as go between transmitting to humans. China breeds a lot of animals for food in close contact.

1918 influenza killed est. 50 million people. This HlNl virus cropped up again in 2009 originated from pig herds.

Plague bacterial disease, rodents infected fleas transmit.

Mosquito's can carry several nasty things.

Rabies still kills people worldwide.

AIDS virus from chimpanzee hunted in Africa for meat.

No expert but germ warfare Ebola better suited. Kills 25-90 percent of those infected. Even if you survive organ damage. Don't think Covid 19 from a lab as mentioned Chinese around animals in all kinds of conditions. I am not being racist impossible because had a Chinese Antie & my hapa cousins.


----------



## Dave Martell

I hope you folks are having better luck with your "stimulus" than the Martell's are having. Not only have we seen no stimulus, the IRS isn't even accepting our info today (in their new system) and my wife can't get her unemployment to start because of a technical glitch. We're used to being really poor but this is getting uncomfortable even for us.


----------



## Midsummer

pistachio said:


> It is actually much harder to imagine the development of a biological pathogen through non-intentional industrial research compared with a chemical compound with unanticipated toxicity. Generally when you mess with biological systems something breaks. The probability of an unintended gain of function is ridiculously small. By conventional standards it is surprisingly tricky to make modifications in biological systems even when the technology and system is relatively well understood. Drawing a parallel between the incidental development of toxic chemicals and supposed incidental creation of a pathogen only makes sense if one has some fundamental misconceptions about how biological systems work.



I would agree. But it would be perfectly reasonable to think such a viral pathogen may have been isolated in a research setting. There it may be under study for academic or other reasons.

I think I would want to know if a virology lab had such lax standards that it allowed accidental dissemination of a specimen pathogen. I would then be able to bring to bear political and academic pressure in monitoring and further sharing of pathogens in the future.

What I would really like to know is when was it evident that there was human to human spread and was this revelation suppressed.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

Hang in there Dave. It's bad here too. A pickup place for free food the line of cars was unreal.

I read somewhere that 70 percent of families in Hawaii live paycheck to paycheck. 

I hope various groups are giving food in your neck of the woods.


----------



## HRC_64

The point with VX nerve agent is the effects can be out of proportion to the intent.

You can simply "discover" things in nature that are very dangerous. You don't need to "design" anthrax, or "design" smallpox... they already exists in nature. The lack of INTENT (human design) design doens't mean they are not capable of their known EFFECTS.

Similarly with bat-corona-virus in general, they are rated at BSL-3 (regardless of their origin) by the CDC based on known effects. The CDC doesn't say "oh, this is a naturally occuring human corona virus so we can use BSL-2"


----------



## HRC_64

Midsummer said:


> But it would be perfectly reasonable to think such a viral pathogen may have been isolated in a research setting. There it may be under study for academic or other reasons.


This. Exactly.


> I think I would want to know if a virology lab had such lax standards that it allowed accidental dissemination of a specimen pathogen. I would then be able to bring to bear political and academic pressure in monitoring and further sharing of pathogens in the future.


This. Exactly.


> What I would really like to know is when was it evident that there was human to human spread and was this revelation suppressed.


This is the source of the controversey.


----------



## HRC_64

December 2019: Lab evidence of SARS-1 like corona virus discovered


> Next generation sequencing (NGS) was carried out on lung lavage samples from up to 17 patients between 24–30 December 2019 that would have demonstrated the presence of a SARS-related coronavirus 3–7, but this information was not widely available until a sequence was reported on 12 January 2020.


Jan 12: info made public after delay 
Two days later: January 14th WHO say "no evidence" of Human to Human tranfer


> From the WHO account on January 14: “Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus.” That same day, the Wuhan Health Commission’s public bulletin declared, “We have not found proof for human-to-human transmission.”


Footnote: but...'such transfer is not ruled out'???


> But by that point  even the Chinese government was offering caveats not included in the WHO tweet.* “The possibility of limited human-to-human transmission cannot be excluded,” * the bulletin said, “but the risk of sustained transmission is low.”


Once the 80% genetic similarity with SARS-1 was known in December, the WHO should have been immediaetly altered. 


> This lack of early information may have extended to case notifications, as no cases were reported between 1 and 17 January 2020, but modelling suggested there may have been over 450 cases unreported in that time [20], and indeed a number of such cases were subsequently confirmed retrospectively.


There's no way the WHO should have been creduoulsly reporting on "no" h2h transmissability on Jan 14, six weeks after the first human case, and 15 days after the genetic sequence was known to the Chinese. H2H transfer should have been PRESUMED MAJOR RISK.

Source1: [Microbiology Australia]>>"COVID-19... what we know and what we don’t" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7086482/
Source2: [The Atlantic] "How China Deceived the WHO">https://www.theatlantic.com/politic...ganization-blame-pandemic-coronavirus/609820/[/u]


----------



## Corradobrit1

Bats are a known repository for virus that can mutate and go on to infect humans possibly via an intermediate species. Ebola has its origins in bat colonies in Africa. The 1918 flu pandemic started on a duck farm in the USA, was passed through the US Army recruits doing basic training and then disseminated throughout the world by infected soldiers as they were shipped en mass to the front lines in Europe during WW1. Perfect storm.


----------



## Bert2368

Corradobrit1 said:


> The 1918 flu pandemic started on a duck farm in the USA



Can you give link or a reference for that information.

Every reference I have seen says exact place of origin/patient 0 for 1918 pandemic are still unknown.









Origins of the Spanish Influenza pandemic (1918–1920) and its relation to the First World War


The virus which was responsible for the first benign wave of the Spanish Influenza in the spring of 1918, and which was to become extremely virulent by the end of the summer of 1918, was inextricably associated with the soldiers who fought during the ...




www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


----------



## bahamaroot

Dave Martell said:


> I hope you folks are having better luck with your "stimulus" than the Martell's are having...


We got our money direct deposited on Monday. One of the benefits of e-filing.

And it's amazing the number of pandemic experts on this forum...


----------



## Dave Martell

bahamaroot said:


> We got our money direct deposited on Monday. One of the benefits of e-filing.




I e-filed as well.


----------



## Bill13

Bert2368 said:


> Can you give link or a reference for that information.
> 
> Every reference I have seen says exact place of origin/patient 0 for 1918 pandemic are still unknown.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Origins of the Spanish Influenza pandemic (1918–1920) and its relation to the First World War
> 
> 
> The virus which was responsible for the first benign wave of the Spanish Influenza in the spring of 1918, and which was to become extremely virulent by the end of the summer of 1918, was inextricably associated with the soldiers who fought during the ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


I had heard about a start in Kentucky or somewhere Midwest, but stumbled across this today: 1918 Flu Pandemic That Killed 50 Million Originated in China, Historians Say


----------



## Bill13

Interesting article A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence. - PubMed - NCBI One of the authors is the "bat lady" who worked at the Wuhan lab, at least if you believe wiki. Shi Zhengli - Wikipedia

"we generated and characterized a chimeric virus expressing the spike of bat coronavirus SHC014 in a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone"

Or the last sentence "On the basis of these findings, we synthetically re-derived an infectious full-length SHC014 recombinant virus and demonstrate robust viral replication both in vitro and in vivo. Our work suggests a potential risk of SARS-CoV re-emergence from viruses currently circulating in bat populations."

Maybe I'm reading it wrong but this sounds like things were getting "engineered" for whatever purpose. But maybe someone with a biology degree or background can chime in.


----------



## Bert2368

I read an article on the reclamation of sufficient remains of 1918 epidemic influenza virus from first people victims graves in permafrost to revive that virus in the lab.

After re-assembling the virus and getting the damned stuff to replicate, they did engineering on it to determine which sequences or combination of sequences were responsible for the high infectiousness and high mortality. In a VERY secure lab.

They succeeded in using those sequences once identified to modify other viruses with addition of sequences from the 1918 virus and test those chimeras for activity. Also to swap in to the 1918 virus parts of the sequence of other viruses in an attempt find out which parts of the sequence were required to display which properties- An awful lot of mice died very badly. They described the techniques used in only general detail, but there is enough information out there for someone with the correct background to replicate the work.

Reading it scared the hell out of me. One of the things I have done is moderate a science forum. After explaining to many, many young people who just learned how to do something cool in chemistry/physical sciences why they should NOT do that thing without a blast shield and a fume hood in their basement or mom's kitchen- And reading news articles about (and twice, obituaries of) a couple of the ones we had on the forums who didn't bother to ask, but just WENT FOR IT!, I have some awareness of the very special and particularly lethal flavor of intelectual target fixation/Asberger's spectrum narrow focus otherwise highly intelligent people can display.

The knowledge and equipment to do experimentation that 30-40 years ago WOULD have required a university grad school or a first world nations CBW establishment setting are available to anyone smart and motivated enough.

I have had at least one discussion with a very smart 19 year old about NOT doing recombinant DNA work in his basement over summer break. Thank God, he got a paid research position offered to him, then at 20 went off to Oxford, where I hope his PhD advisors are watching his ass carefully.

A long way of saying, in my experience, people not prepared to deal with the potential outcomes may very well succeed with such experiments. Except for the boring part at the beginning and end where they do the work to make certain their results don't kill anyone.


----------



## bahamaroot

Dave Martell said:


> I e-filed as well.


Do they have your banking information? We get refunds every year and have it direct deposited. They already have our banking info so we did nothing and the money just showed up.


----------



## Michi

Bill13 said:


> Interesting article A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence. - PubMed - NCBI One of the authors is the "bat lady" who worked at the Wuhan lab, at least if you believe wiki. Shi Zhengli - Wikipedia


Yes. She is one of the world's most pre-eminent virus researchers, and led the team that first figured out that SARS came from bats.



> Maybe I'm reading it wrong but this sounds like things were getting "engineered" for whatever purpose. But maybe someone with a biology degree or background can chime in.


This is normal research on how to deal with viruses and create effective medications and vaccines. Here is the TL;DR:

They noticed that SHC014, which is a virus that is closely related to SARS, does not bind to ACE2, which is the protein that SARS relies on for infection.

They pointed out that the SHC014 spike protein differs from the SARS spike protein in a number of ways, and that models predicted that these differences would prevent human infection if the SHC014 spike protein were present on a different virus.

To test the theory, they grafted the SHC014 spike protein onto the SARS backbone. If the predictions were correct, the modified virus would also be unable to bind to the ACE2 receptor. As it turned out, the modified virus was quite good at binding to bat, civet, and human orthologs of ACE2 though.

Orthologs are genes that make their way into different species from a common ancestor. In effect, parts of the original DNA sequence can be found in different species, allowing us to draw conclusions about genetic ancestry. Here, they were looking specifically at the genetics of the ACE2 receptor in bats, civets, and humans, because that was the infection path for SARS.

They then tested whether the existing SARS vaccine would be effective against infection by the modified virus. It wasn't.

Translation: If we have a vaccine against a very similar virus, and the virus changes even a little bit, it is likely that the vaccine will be ineffective.

Next, they checked if the ordinary SHC014 would infect live mice or human tissue cultures. It did a very poor job at that. This was the control experiment: it shows that just looking at the spike protein in isolation isn't sufficient to judge whether the virus will infect a particular target. The combination of spike protein and backbone matters.

They noted that _"circulating bat CoV pools maintain 'poised' spike proteins that are capable of infecting humans without mutation or adaptation (Fig. 4c). This hypothesis is illustrated by the ability of a chimeric virus containing the SHC014 spike in a SARS-CoV backbone to cause robust infection in both human airway cultures and in mice without RBD adaptation._"

Translation: SHC014 does not infect people but mutations can quickly get it there. That is because the research demonstrates that bat viruses with the SHC014 spike protein do infect human tissue if they mutate a little bit.

_"Together, the data confirm the ability of viruses with the SHC014 spike to infect human airway cells and underscore the potential threat of cross-species transmission of SHC014-CoV."_

Translation: We can expect other viruses to jump from bats to humans, possibly via another intermediate host species.

The message: SARS was not the last time we've seen this, and it's only a matter of time before it happens again.

The paper was published in 2015, seven years ago. And we didn't listen.


----------



## Dave Martell

bahamaroot said:


> Do they have your banking information? We get refunds every year and have it direct deposited. They already have our banking info so we did nothing and the money just showed up.




Same situation here except they didn't send any money. I tried using the IRS portal tool to check on status and to also give them the bank info again but that does nothing but error out. Oh well.


----------



## Corradobrit1

Bill13 said:


> I had heard about a start in Kentucky or somewhere Midwest, but stumbled across this today: 1918 Flu Pandemic That Killed 50 Million Originated in China, Historians Say


The first case of Spanish Flu was traced back to Haskell County Kansas on 3/4/18. Excellent doc, worth a watch


----------



## HRC_64

Michi said:


> The paper was published in 2015, seven years ago. And we didn't listen.


This seems like a good time to test out the new emojis...
This is from 2014...




__





Science | AAAS







www.sciencemag.org





Lets back up two more years to 2013 (vs 2015)








'Appalling irresponsibility': Scientists create bird flu virus that co


A REASEARCH laboratory in China has deliberately engineered a deadly new hybrid strain of the bird-flu virus and human influenza which could cause a global pandemic, outraging experts.




www.express.co.uk






> News that experiments had enhanced H5N1 transmissibility was largely greeted with horror by the public and many scientists, who feared that an experimental strain might accidentally be released, or even inform the design of H5N1 by *bioterrorists*.



Note 1) the kill potential of airborne h5n1 is 100 million global with 500 million casualties.
Note 2) "might accidentally be released, or even inform the design of... bioterrorists" is in the same sentence.
Note 3) China decided to replicated these experiements in LOW SPEC ANIMAL LABS


----------



## Michi

HRC_64 said:


> This is from 2014...


Yes, I am aware of the objections. The question is whether ignorance is bliss. Knowing how these viruses work is valuable. The more we learn about them, the better the chances of doing something about them.

I'm sure that quite a few countries still have biological weapons labs, treaties notwithstanding (and the stupidity of that notwithstanding either). But those labs are never mentioned.

It's a two-edged sword, I admit.


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## HRC_64

Followers of this thread will also recall, in 2018 a year before 2019 Wuhan Bat-Coronavirus incident








State Department warned in 2018 Wuhan lab could cause 'new pandemic'


In 2018 two diplomats visited the Wuhan Institute of Virology multiple times from January to March and warned Washington DC of its risk to trigger a pandemic.




www.dailymail.co.uk





In part, this concern would have been broadly informed by the bird-flu (2012) concerns cited above.


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## HRC_64

Michi said:


> The question is whether ignorance is bliss...



No, they were playing russian roulette.


----------



## lowercasebill

From Reddit


----------



## ian

Delicious and effective!


----------



## Michi

HRC_64 said:


> No, they were playing russian roulette.


I take it that this is your opinion. I honestly don't know whether they were playing Russion roulette or not. I don't have enough insight into that industry to make a judgement. Clearly, those people are competent researchers, given past performance. And, yes, I understand that this does not imply anything about their ethics.

BTW, The Express is probable not the kind of publication I would look to for an informed an unbiased opinion. The AAAS is much more reputable, and deserves to be taken seriously.

From the AAAS article you linked to:

_"Others were less enthusiastic. “The Administration thinks what we need right now is to STOP research on deadly pathogens? ***?,” tweeted Alan Dove, a science writer and co-host of This Week In Virology, a science podcast and blog."_

Not everyone agrees that stopping that kind of research is the right thing. On the one hand, if it were to stop, we wouldn't risk some virus escaping from a lab and creating havoc. On the other hand, if we don't do research, we are just stabbing around in the dark without any real understanding of what makes a particular virus tick.

As I said, it's a two-edged sword, and there is probably no absolute "right" or "wrong" answer here, only shades of grey.


----------



## Bill13

A new report out from Stanford. Not peer reviewed yet and not a perfect random testing, but it is at least a start: COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California

If you highlight an authors name you can use google scholar to see what they have previously published.


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## Luftmensch

A Chinese official is alleging that the US army brought COVID-19 to Wuhan during the 2019 Military World Games:

Chinese official suggests coronavirus started in United States

Rubbish, of course.... but why not take it as seriously as the idea it escaped from a research facility?


Playing tit-for-tat is a childish game for international politics...


----------



## Luftmensch

Dave Martell said:


> I hope you folks are having better luck with your "stimulus" than the Martell's are having. Not only have we seen no stimulus, the IRS isn't even accepting our info today (in their new system) and my wife can't get her unemployment to start because of a technical glitch. We're used to being really poor but this is getting uncomfortable even for us.



Sorry to hear that. I hope you get support real soon!

Here, in Oz, we have government service centres - a one-stop-shop for all sorts of things (e.g, drivers licenses, social security paymens). I have never seen queues of people spilling into the streets... but it is happening

Queues at Centrelink offices and MyGov website crashes ahead of coronavirus shutdowns


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## HRC_64

Luftmensch said:


> Playing tit-for-tat is a childish game for international politics...



No, its the lack of imagination in "an adult" is childish.


----------



## HRC_64

US officials confirm investigation into whether coronavirus escaped from Wuhan lab


The US is conducting a full-scale investigation into whether the novel coronavirus, which went on to morph into a global pandemic that has brought the global economy to its knees, escaped from a la…




nypost.com




This argument is essentially over -- the US and UK intelligence agencies know more than KKF.


> The sources believe the initial transmission of the virus was a naturally occurring strain that was being studied there — and then went into the population in Wuhan.


We shoud keep in mind, the possibility that scientists at the lab were workeing under duress, either before or after the outbreak, and remain open minded about ultimate culpability.


> US officials are 100 percent confident China went to great lengths to cover up after the virus was out, the sources said.


My anaylsis (earlier in this thread) was only undertaken for confirmation of plausibility. IMHO we now have such confirmation--from suitably well informed sources--that we can move on with the discussion.


----------



## Michi

HRC_64 said:


> No, its the lack of imagination in "an adult" is childish.


I understand that you believe that the virus escaped from a lab. In the absence of evidence, that doesn't make it so.

It seems likely that we will never know for certain. If the virus didn't escape from a lab, the point is moot. If the virus did escape from a lab, the Chinese will do their utmost to make sure that no-one ever finds out.

Suppose we do find out, with certainty, that the virus escaped from the lab in Wuhan. So, what then? What does that change? What will we do? Start a war, because that will fix everything for everyone? Make an international treaty to never let that kind of thing happen again, ever?

Suppose we do have an international treaty. Which countries would stick to it? Almost none, is my guess. Because this sort of thing will continue to happen. This is not the first or the last pandemic we'll have to deal with. Most countries will ignore any treaty (or never sign up to it) because they know full well that, next time, whoever has the research data in hand will be better placed to survive the next pandemic.

Why not let it go? Regardless of where the virus came from, we need to beat it. That's the first and foremost priority. Right now, I couldn't care less where the bloody thing came from.


----------



## Michi

HRC_64 said:


> This argument is essentially over -- the US and UK intelligence agencies know more than KKF.


I would like to point out here that the NY Post is widely considered the most unreliable and biased newspaper in the entire USA.


----------



## Yet-Another-Dave

Michi said:


> I would like to point out here that the NY Post is widely considered the most unreliable and biased newspaper in the entire USA.



While I'll agree they never let facts get in the way of a good story, I assure you we have much much worst media here.


----------



## Michi

Yet-Another-Dave said:


> While I'll agree they never let facts get in the way of a good story, I assure you we have much much worst media here.


Wow. My condolences…


----------



## M1k3

Michi said:


> I would like to point out here that the NY Post is widely considered the most unreliable and biased newspaper in the entire USA.



National Enquirer got beat? Hmm..


----------



## Michi

This is an insightful article. The main take-away, regardless of any conclusions, is that testing is hugely important. What we don't know can truly hurt us.








A New Statistic Reveals Why America’s COVID-19 Numbers Are Flat


Few figures tell you anything useful about how the coronavirus has spread through the U.S. Here’s one that does.




www.theatlantic.com


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> Wow. My condolences…



To be fair... Australia spread that virus...


----------



## Nemo

Luftmensch said:


> To be fair... Australia spread that virus...


I think it escaped from a lab


----------



## M1k3

Nemo said:


> I think it escaped from a lab



Or was it a market?


----------



## Luftmensch

Nature Medicine article: The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2


> It is improbable that SARS-CoV-2 emerged through laboratory manipulation of a related SARS-CoV-like coronavirus.





> Although the evidence shows that SARS-CoV-2 is not a purposefully manipulated virus, it is currently impossible to prove or disprove the other theories of its origin described here. However, since we observed all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible.




Full-genome evolutionary analysis of the novel corona virus (2019-nCoV) rejects the hypothesis of emergence as a result of a recent recombination event:


> Our study suggests that the new corona virus (2019-nCoV) is not a mosaic and it is most closely related with the BatCoV RaTG13 detected in bats from Yunnan Province [21]. The levels of genetic similarity between the 2019-nCoV and RaTG13 suggest that the latter does not provide the exact variant that caused the outbreak in humans, but the hypothesis that 2019-nCoV has originated from bats is very likely.




Fauci at recent White House press briefing [1:38:50]:


> A group of highly-qualified evolutionary virologists looked at the sequences in bats as they evolve. The mutations that it took to get to the point where it is now is totally consistent with a jump of a species from an animal to a human




Secretary of Defense Mark Esper [2:40]:


> A majority of the views right now is that it is natural, that it was organic




US military chief: 'Weight of evidence' that Covid-19 did not originate in a lab


> The Pentagon’s top general has said that US intelligence has looked into the possibility that the coronavirus outbreak could have started in a Chinese laboratory, but that the “weight of evidence” so far pointed towards “natural” origins.




Scientists have strong evidence coronavirus originated naturally:


> "There's no reason to believe this was made in a lab," Dr. Robert Shafer, professor of Infectious Diseases at Stanford Medical School, told ABC News. "There are many strains in nature that could cause this type of outbreak."




France says no evidence COVID-19 linked to Wuhan research lab:


> “We would like to make it clear that there is to this day no factual evidence corroborating the information recently circulating in the United States press that establishes a link between the origins of COVID-19 and the work of the P4 laboratory of Wuhan, China,” an official at President Emmanuel Macron’s office said.


----------



## Michi

@Luftmensch Do you really think that you can convince anyone with actual evidence? If so, you are an optimist.

PS: The earth is flat. I know. I saw that on the Internet.


----------



## Midsummer

Luftmensch said:


> Nature Medicine article: The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Full-genome evolutionary analysis of the novel corona virus (2019-nCoV) rejects the hypothesis of emergence as a result of a recent recombination event:
> 
> 
> 
> Fauci at recent White House press briefing [1:38:50]:
> 
> 
> 
> Secretary of Defense Mark Esper [2:40]:
> 
> 
> 
> US military chief: 'Weight of evidence' that Covid-19 did not originate in a lab
> 
> 
> 
> Scientists have strong evidence coronavirus originated naturally:
> 
> 
> 
> France says no evidence COVID-19 linked to Wuhan research lab:





If you are trying to make the arguement that it is most likely a naturally occurring virus (a theory to which I personally ascribe) while believing you have made an argument that it could not have escaped from a lab; well then you have have not. This is truly a dead horse beating. People will believe what they want to believe. Chernobyl was an accident that occurred when errors were made by humans, with best intentions, trying to control dangerous natural phenomena. I suspect the precautions taken by the engineers who are appointed to avoid a run away reaction could comfortably be compared to the containment in a high level virology lab.

WOW, this is interesting bill .. COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California


----------



## ian

Michi said:


> @Luftmensch Do you really think that you can convince anyone with actual evidence? If so, you are an optimist.
> 
> PS: The earth is flat. I know. I saw that on the Internet.





Midsummer said:


> If you are trying to make the arguement that it is most likely a naturally occurring virus (a theory to which I personally ascribe) while believing you have made an argument that it could not have escaped from a lab; well then you have have not. This is truly a dead horse beating. People will believe what they want to believe. Chernobyl was an accident that occurred when errors were made by humans, with best intentions, trying to control dangerous natural phenomena. I suspect the precautions taken by the engineers who are appointed to avoid a run away reaction could comfortably be compared to the containment in a high level virology lab.
> 
> WOW, this is interesting bill .. COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California



I took @Luftmensch’s post to mean “Look, noone serious is talking about it having escaped from a lab (citation citation), even though that’s a possibiliyy. So can we just drop it?”

Yea, good find on that article, Bill.


----------



## Michi

Midsummer said:


> People will believe what they want to believe. Chernobyl was an accident that occurred when errors were made by humans, with best intentions, trying to control dangerous natural phenomena.


I don't think so. I think that it was done by the Raëlians, who were hired by the Illuminati, who in turn are quietly doing the bidding of the Rothschilds, who want to make sure that the world won't fall for believing that the US landed on the moon (which they didn't, because that was all a hoax).


----------



## Michi

Midsummer said:


> WOW, this is interesting bill .. COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California


That makes for very sobering reading 

From the paper:

_"Our data imply that, by April 1 (three days prior to the end of our survey) between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara County. The reported number of confirmed positive cases in the county on April 1 was 956, 50-85-fold lower than the number of infections predicted by this study."_

If this turns out to be accurate (it will need to be verified by independent studies), we have a real problem. Specifically that, if social distancing restrictions are lifted, we'll go back straight to where we came from.


----------



## ian

Michi said:


> That makes for very sobering reading
> 
> From the paper:
> 
> _"Our data imply that, by April 1 (three days prior to the end of our survey) between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara County. The reported number of confirmed positive cases in the county on April 1 was 956, 50-85-fold lower than the number of infections predicted by this study."_
> 
> If this turns out to be accurate (it will need to be verified by independent studies), we have a real problem. Specifically that, if social distancing restrictions are lifted, we'll go back straight to where we came from.



On the other hand, couldn’t this be a good thing? If so many people are getting infected with no symptoms, presumably less people will die in the long run. And assuming that people stop being infectious after a couple weeks or whatever (I don’t know whether this is true or not) then as time goes on you’ll quickly be developing a noninfectious population with some immunity/resistance. Or am I off base? Somehow it seems like a good thing if the death rate is actually 50 times lower than previously reported.


----------



## Luftmensch

Nemo said:


> I think it escaped from a lab



Depending on the time frame you are looking at... you could say "it escaped from a LAB" government... (not a government lab ) - though it incorporated on NASDAQ under Howard 




Michi said:


> @Luftmensch Do you really think that you can convince anyone with actual evidence? If so, you are an optimist.



Hehe... I wish! I read some disappointing headlines this morning. I couldn't get them out of my head - I think I replied out of despair!




ian said:


> “Look, noone serious is talking about it having escaped from a lab (citation citation), even though that’s a possibiliyy. So can we just drop it?”



Exactly this!


----------



## Luftmensch

ian said:


> On the other hand, couldn’t this be a good thing? If so many people are getting infected with no symptoms, presumably less people will die in the long run. And assuming that people stop being infectious after a couple weeks or whatever (I don’t know whether this is true or not) then as time goes on you’ll quickly be developing a noninfectious population with some immunity/resistance. Or am I off base? Somehow it seems like a good thing if the death rate is actually 50 times lower than previously reported.



It appears to be good news for the mortality rate. But the flip side of that coin might be that it has a higher reproduction number? At the very least, if the infection has spread further than initially estimated, I think the problem is what @Michi raised?



Michi said:


> If this turns out to be accurate (it will need to be verified by independent studies), we have a real problem. Specifically that, if social distancing restrictions are lifted, we'll go back straight to where we came from.




Out of interest, currently Santa Clara County are reporting 73 deaths:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Data Dashboard - Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - County of Santa Clara


----------



## Midsummer

Luftmensch said:


> It appears to be good news for the mortality rate. But the flip side of that coin might be that it has a higher reproduction number? At the very least, if the infection has spread further than initially estimated, I think the problem is what @Michi raised?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Out of interest, currently Santa Clara County are reporting 73 deaths:
> 
> Coronavirus (COVID-19) Data Dashboard - Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - County of Santa Clara


 

The reason this appears to be good news is that the testing they did is Serologic testing. Which, with very sensitive assays, usually isn't positive till 10- 12 days (IgM) after infection begins. Serology shows us who has *had* the infection. And with the death rate being as low as it is now, this suggests the case fatality ratio well below the case fatality ratio of the seasonal flu.

Of course their are other caveats, like the high infectivity rate of this bug (R naught) and the fact that most of the world has not seen this bug before (ie immunologically naive) and the fact that we have no vaccine yet. But if this is true and generalizable then predictions (death and destruction) will have to be scaled way back.

Don't forget that we lose 20,000 to 60,000 (deaths) each year in the US from Flu. They are as dead as the ones we lose from Covid-19; just more easily forgotten and swept under the rug.

Stay safe..


----------



## HRC_64

Midsummer said:


> If you are trying to make the arguement that it is most likely a naturally occurring virus (a theory to which I personally ascribe) while believing you have made an argument that it could not have escaped from a lab; well then you have have not. This is truly a dead horse beating....



Michi and Luftmensch are just circle jerking at this stage.


----------



## ian

Luftmensch said:


> It appears to be good news for the mortality rate. But the flip side of that coin might be that it has a higher reproduction number? At the very least, if the infection has spread further than initially estimated, I think the problem is what @Michi raised?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Out of interest, currently Santa Clara County are reporting 73 deaths:
> 
> Coronavirus (COVID-19) Data Dashboard - Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - County of Santa Clara



Hmm. I guess your point is that the high number of infections maybe indicates a higher rate of infection, ie a higher R_0? But couldn’t people have already estimated R_0 by noting the rate at which the number of *severe* infections increases per couple weeks? I’m not sure how that number could end up being very wrong. If the Santa Clara (where I lived when I was 6!) study is correct, doesn’t it just indicate that the spread is much farther along than we thought? This seems like a good thing, since there’s a cap on the number of people that can get infected. I mean, given a particular R_0, it shouldn’t matter in terms of long term future hospitalizations what the current number of infected is. You can calculate that just from the number of current hospitalizations: if N(t) is the number of total hospitalizations as a function of time, then

N(t) = (hospitalization percent) x (R_0)^(t - start time)

or something. So in particular, above every ‘unit’ of time, N(t) just gets multiplied by R_0. Maybe the results of the Santa Clara study are indicating that the virus arrived much sooner in Santa Clara than expected, ie that “start time” is smaller than expected, and therefore “hospitalization percent” is too.

_Disclaimer that should be attached to all my posts_: I know nothing about epidemiology. All I know is that at least in the simplest possible model, the growth of N(t) should follow a function something more or less like the above. I am not suggesting any policies or expressing any frustration with the authorities as a result of my toddler-level analysis. I am just trying to guess how to interpret the result of the study, absent any other more informed opinion. Please correct me if I’m wrong.


----------



## HRC_64

Luftmensch said:


> It appears to be good news for the mortality rate. But the flip side of that coin might be that it has a higher reproduction number? At the very least, if the infection has spread further than initially estimated, I think the problem is what @Michi



Two points:
1) You have to ask yourself why this isn't the headline?This study seems to imply the mortality rate would max @ 0.30% to 0.01% ? (currently partition data show CFR= ~15% max, when stratified by risk for people 80+)

2) Study used FACEBOOK ad replies to generate the "random sample"


----------



## Bill13

Michi said:


> I would like to point out here that the NY Post is widely considered the most unreliable and biased newspaper in the entire USA.



I'm think the most biased goes to the New York Times or the Washington Post (which I subscribe to, partly to make fun of). Before the Post got rid of their Ombudsman (in 2013 I think) their bias's were held in check, mostly. After that it's been downhill, with the pedal to the medal after Bezos took over.


----------



## ian

?

Are you referring to articles from their opinion section, or their regular journalism? Opinion articles will by definition by biased, although they do try to have some variety of opinions present. I'd be interested to see an example of a regular journalism article from either of those papers that you consider to be biased.


----------



## Midsummer

The Stanford study has not been peer reviewed. That said they generally are not a hack organization. What it suggest to me is R naught may be much higher and incidence of asymptomatic infections much higher leading to a reduced case fatality ratio. But if you die you die. And we could still have issues with overwhelming the hospital systems especially if ICU and ventilator therapy is needed.

On another note some experts are suggesting that ventilator therapy may not be as necessary as previously thought. They are pointing to findings that suggest Covid is disrupting hemoglobin function at the alveoli.

A lot of very smart people are looking at this problem right now. There are lots of theories, little clarity.



ian said:


> Hmm. I guess your point is that the high number of infections maybe indicates a higher rate of infection, ie a higher R_0? But couldn’t people have already estimated R_0 by noting the rate at which the number of *severe* infections increases per couple weeks? I’m not sure how that number could end up being very wrong. If the Santa Clara (where I lived when I was 6!) study is correct, doesn’t it just indicate that the spread is much farther along than we thought? This seems like a good thing, since there’s a cap on the number of people that can get infected. I mean, given a particular R_0, it shouldn’t matter in terms of long term future hospitalizations what the current number of infected is. You can calculate that just from the number of current hospitalizations: if N(t) is the number of total hospitalizations as a function of time, then
> 
> N(t) = (hospitalization percent) x (R_0)^(t - start time)
> 
> or something. So in particular, above every ‘unit’ of time, N(t) just gets multiplied by R_0. Maybe the results of the Santa Clara study are indicating that the virus arrived much sooner in Santa Clara than expected, ie that “start time” is smaller than expected, and therefore “hospitalization percent” is too.
> 
> _Disclaimer that should be attached to all my posts_: I know nothing about epidemiology. All I know is that at least in the simplest possible model, the growth of N(t) should follow a function something more or less like the above. I am not suggesting any policies or expressing any frustration with the authorities as a result of my toddler-level analysis. I am just trying to guess how to interpret the result of the study, absent any other more informed opinion. Please correct me if I’m wrong.


The number of severe infections in a given homogeneous society would be an indication of the rate of spread. But not all populations are homogenous. Not all have the same percentage of susceptible and or frail individuals.

R naught is the expected number of infections that one infected person would generate. Recent estimates from the data from China have given us a R naught around 2.3. For each infected individual they pass it to 2.3 other individuals. But, If you are unaware of the infections that a person passes (ie he passes the infection to a number of individuals who have no symptoms) and you are only aware of the significantly infected individuals; then you will underestimate the true R naught.

Based on this study the R naught could be much higher than originally thought. And there is likely a whole lot more asymptomatic individuals in the population than we have imagined. Remember testing is still difficult. It would be nice to have an accessible, sensitive test so as to better estimate the R naught. We are ramping up and will soon be able to better estimate this; but there will still be issues with test sensitivity.

Thanks to all of you guys who have contributed to this thread. I truly appreciate it.

I will keep my eyes open for information to share with you as this thing progresses.


----------



## Bill13

ian said:


> ?
> 
> Are you referring to articles from their opinion section, or their regular journalism? Opinion articles will by definition by biased, although they do try to have some variety of opinions present. I'd be interested to see an example of a regular journalism article from either of those papers that you consider to be biased.


----------



## ian

Deleted. Decided I don’t know enough to be contributing intelligently atm.


----------



## Bill13

Woops. I am referring to their reporting. Most recently it has been their reporting on the FISA abuses. So far they have not written anything about the just unclassified footnotes from the IG report. When/if they do I will PM you.
As a libertarian I see what happened with the abuses by the FBI of the NSA databases and the FISA warrants as the biggest abuse of government power since what James Jesus Angleton of the CIA was doing. Actually I think it's much worse, just that Angleton probably would of abused these new powers also.


----------



## WildBoar

Agree 100% with Bill. The Washington Post definitely is very far to the 'left'. Their headline writing is comical, and full of (their) 'judgment'.

I subscribe to it just for for the local section and the comics. The business section was reduced down do almost nothing several years ago. Even the sports section is pretty lame. But with it costing close to $1k/ year for the print edition I have been finding it tough to justify the renewal every 6 months. What I really want/ need in a good newspaper is a solid comics section, and I am willing to jump ship if there is a good alternative.


----------



## Bill13

WildBoar said:


> Agree 100% with Bill. The Washington Post definitely is very far to the 'left'. Their headline writing is comical, and full of (their) 'judgment'.
> 
> I subscribe to just for for the local section and the comics. The business section was reduced down do almost nothing several years ago. Even the sports section is pretty lame. But with it costing close to $1k/ year for the print edition I have been finding it tough to justify the renewal every 6 months. What I really want/ need in a good newspaper is a solid comics section, and I am willing to jump ship if there is a good alternative.



I also subscribe to the WSJ so I feel your pain. I should of mentioned we also stay for the comics. Food section used to be great but has also gone downhill, or maybe I've just become jaded.


----------



## WildBoar

Yeah, Food section has tanked quite a bit. They want you to go online.

As part of my $ub$scription I get a code via email every month that allows a second user to access them online. If someone is interested, I am happy to forward on the monthly email for a while, as none of my family members have been interested in it.


----------



## daveb

ian said:


> Deleted. Decided I don’t know enough to be contributing intelligently atm.



Stick to Math Ian. You couldn't make minimum wage as a "journalist" with such heretical ideas. 

Sign at the NYT: "I Type, Therefore I am".


----------



## ian

Let me register my support for the NYT, though, since it’s been getting a bad rap in the past few posts.


----------



## Bill13

Well here is a Times article. WHy does anyone still trust anything China? This pandemic besides causing many more deaths than needed due to their lies has probably killed their hopes to dominate the 5G network in Europe. Thankfully the US had already figured it out, at least regarding 5G.


----------



## Michi

HRC_64 said:


> 1) You have to ask yourself why this isn't the headline?This study seems to imply the mortality rate would max @ 0.30% to 0.01% ? (currently partition data show CFR= ~15% max, when stratified by risk for people 80+)


The bit about the mortality rate is good. The bit about the number of infections being much higher is not. As far as I can see, that means that it will be even harder to lift restrictions because, as soon as there is a new pocket somewhere, it is likely to go out of control very quickly.



> 2) Study used FACEBOOK ad replies to generate the "random sample"


No. The word "random" does not appear in the article, and the authors never claimed that they used a random sample. Instead, they stated that

_"Participants were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county by demographic and geographic characteristics. We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS- CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people, adjusting for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity."_

Most studies get their test subjects by a mechanism such as this. For example, almost all university studies are carried out on students, at least initially, because students are in plentiful supply. The students are recruited by ads on notice boards and the like and, often, they are paid some small amount of money for their trouble.


----------



## Michi

Bill13 said:


> WHy does anyone still trust anything China?


One company China does not make. This may have been simple incompetence. But, even if deliberate, we don't need to look to China to find plenty of shady profiteering from coronavirus. This kind of thing happens elsewhere, too.

Here is one particularly satisfying example of shady profiteering I came across recently. I found this a joy to read.

Coronavirus hoarder tries to return $10,000 worth of goods to Adelaide supermarket


----------



## HRC_64

x


Michi said:


> No. The word "random" does not appear in the article...
> 
> _"Participants were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county by demographic and geographic characteristics. We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS- CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people, adjusting for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity."_
> 
> Most studies get their test subjects by a mechanism such as this...



I was being faceitious. LMAO. The sample isn't "random" obviously...

Its well documented that Covid-19 data don't scale, either up or down, based on arbitrary data partitions.

The risk topology in Silicon Valley is highly uneven, best to think of it as "zip code lottery".

Here's another zip code lottery (stratified by "level of abstraction" data partitions)

1) State of New York ("new york state", ~200k cases), 20 million people - 0.5% risk of positive (exl NYC)
2) City of New York ("new york county", ~100k cases), 1.6 million people - 6.25% risk of positive
3) City of New York--by ethnic neighborhood (eg Harlem, Chinatown, etc) - ??? risk of positive





We know at least for some ethnic groups, the impact of covid-19 is disproportionate, eg> Jama Article: COVID-19, African Americans, and Health Disparities

Now ask: when we domographically correct data, what data do we rely on?
Well, the only data (per confirmed cases) would be PCR-test data.

But if this data is off by such large factors as 50-80x, how good is the correction?

The answer is: probaly not very good. In any event, it may not matter...there are tons of other issues with how you model risk topography in a place like silicon valley.

Keep in mind your risk of Covid-19 is a function of many things, but mainly you need a physical link to somebody (nth degree contact) all the way back to China (wuhan). There are tonse of "Real" chinese nationals in silicon valley. Also tons of "Asian" americans (including ethnic koreans, Japanese, SE asia, etc as well as asia).

What is the liklihood of a "Generic" person in silicon valley doing business with a Chinese firm linked to wuhan? What about a student? What about a tech worker? Does his job matter more than his ethnicicty? What if he is black or hispanic (typicall lower socio-economic status in SV). What good is you data if its only "Asian"? What good is your data if its micro-targeted (sub-asian) but your overal demo map is only as good at the NYT demo map?

Extrapolating from you sample back to the poulation of Santa Clara is a very tricky business.


----------



## HRC_64

Here's the demographic snapshot for Santa Clara / Silicon Valley...


----------



## Michi

HRC_64 said:


> Extrapolating from you sample back to the poulation of Santa Clara is a very tricky business.


Yes, all good points. That research certainly needs more independent work for us to find out whether it means anything.

I do hope that the number of undetected cases isn’t as large as they suggest.


----------



## ian

I’m still unsure about whether I hope the numbers are as large as they suggest or not. I mean, we’ve been dealing with a certain rate of spread, and we’ve been coping, sort of, except in some tragic situations. We’ve got a long road ahead keeping the curve flat, and there are all those projections about “eventually 60% of people will have have it”. I can’t help be hopeful that we’re farther along the road to 60% or whatever than we realize.

TLDR: I don’t know anything. There’s some study. Is it good or bad or neutral? I don’t think it’s clear.


----------



## ian

Bill13 said:


> Well here is a Times article. WHy does anyone still trust anything China? This pandemic besides causing many more deaths than needed due to their lies has probably killed their hopes to dominate the 5G network in Europe. Thankfully the US had already figured it out, at least regarding 5G.View attachment 77422



Yea, I remember reading that article when it came out. Sad situation, for sure.


----------



## Midsummer

Because Covid is so contagious, I am guessing we will need more like 90% of the population to have developed antibodies to the disease before we have "herd immunity". But with the disease spreading so fast the susceptible ones will be found quickly.


----------



## Luftmensch

Bill13 said:


> As a libertarian I see what happened with the abuses by the FBI of the NSA databases and the FISA warrants as the biggest abuse of government power



I am not a libertarian but I am a privacy advocate. The whole digital surveillance thing is terrible. In 'the war against terror' we have lost a lot of checks and balances. There was talk here of using mobile phone data to track cases - now there is an opt-in system.

In principle a mandatory system with the right data protections is a good idea for community protection. In practice I just don't have faith the right protections would be implemented. Nor do I have faith monitoring bodies would let go of that power/information easily after this is over....


----------



## Luftmensch

Midsummer said:


> Because Covid is so contagious, I am guessing we will need more like 90% of the population to have developed antibodies to the disease before we have "herd immunity". But with the disease spreading so fast the susceptible ones will be found quickly.



For Australia i have read 60%...


----------



## Luftmensch

ian said:


> TLDR: I don’t know anything. There’s some study. Is it good or bad or neutral? I don’t think it’s clear.



Hehe... maybe the zen approach is: "There is some study. There are some conclusions."

It doesnt need to be good or bad, it is just more evidence . Further investigation will put it into context.


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> There was talk here of using mobile phone data to track cases - now there is an opt-in system.


When I first heard about the app, I pretty much decided immediately that there was no way I was going to install this. I work for a cyber security company, and I have a better idea than most about the potential for abuse.

Since then, there have been a few more explanations. For one, the app apparently does not send location data and does not use GPS coordinates. Instead, it listens for other phones that also have the app installed via bluetooth. If two phones are close to each other (the quoted distance is 1.5 m) for 15 minutes or more, each phone records the identity of the other phone. (I'm not sure how you would get the 1.5 m thing. Bluetooth is good for 10-15 m with a clear line of sight; presumably, the software will look at signal strength to judge distance.)

Once I get diagnosed with coronavirus, I can choose to press a button in the app, and the app then sends my contact history for the past two weeks to the government for contact tracing.

I can uninstall the app at any time which wipes the app and all its data.

A really important point: the app is going to be open sourced. That's really crucial because it allows independent verification of what the app really does, such as what information it sends and under what conditions. And it is fairly easy to verify that the app that is actually installed matches the source code that is published, so there won't be any cheating.

For epidemiologists, getting accurate data is invaluable. If they had had this data available when the outbreak started, we wouldn't have had anywhere near the number of infected people that actually ended up with.

Given all this, I think I may actually change my mind. If data is sent only once I explicitly initiate the transfer, I don't have a problem.

Me volunteering who I have been in contact with if I get infected may prevent someone else's death. That's an acceptable trade-off to me.


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> When I first heard about the app, I pretty much decided immediately that there was no way I was going to install this. I work for a cyber security company, and I have a better idea than most about the potential for abuse.
> 
> Since then, there have been a few more explanations. For one, the app apparently does not send location data and does not use GPS coordinates. Instead, it listens for other phones that also have the app installed via bluetooth. If two phones are close to each other (the quoted distance is 1.5 m) for 15 minutes or more, each phone records the identity of the other phone. (I'm not sure how you would get the 1.5 m thing. Bluetooth is good for 10-15 m with a clear line of sight; presumably, the software will look at signal strength to judge distance.)
> 
> Once I get diagnosed with coronavirus, I can choose to press a button in the app, and the app then sends my contact history for the past two weeks to the government for contact tracing.
> 
> I can uninstall the app at any time which wipes the app and all its data.



Wow! Thanks for the analysis. That is very useful.




Michi said:


> A really important point: the app is going to be open sourced. That's really crucial because it allows independent verification of what the app really does, such as what information it sends and under what conditions. And it is fairly easy to verify that the app that is actually installed matches the source code that is published, so there won't be any cheating.



That is huge. A really smart move by the government. It hadn't even entered my mind that they would do that - in general that option seems so remote. I am glad they have. That restores a lot of confidence. Like you say - other people can independently verify what the software actually does. Massive gratitude to the advisers who pushed for that.




Michi said:


> Me volunteering who I have been in contact with if I get infected may prevent someone else's death. That's an acceptable trade-off to me.



Yeah. Absolutely!


----------



## Michi

The app will be released two weeks from now. I'm sure a bunch of Android and iOS hackers will jump on it and go through the source with a fine-toothed comb. Once they publish what they find and give it the green light, I'll go ahead and install the thing.


----------



## bahamaroot

Midsummer said:


> ...
> Don't forget that we lose 20,000 to 60,000 (deaths) each year in the US from Flu...


Covid killed 40,000 *in a month* that is what is more concerning about it over the yearly flu.


----------



## Bill13

Sweden has decided on a different approach, the one I wish we had followed. Actually everyone should hope Sweden's approach is correct as it avoids the massive economic destruction, the concerns of a second wave, etc. for an end result that will not be much different as far as total deaths. Interesting tidbit I did not know: the Imperial College paper authors by Mr. Fergurson that convinced the UK to change to the lockdown approach was not peer reviewed. 

Turns out this is not the first time Mr Fergurson has botched things up. He had a prediction for the Avian flu too- remember that? In the Guardian he said the upper range could be 200,000,000 million dead. The WHO spokeswoman quoted in the article was more accurate with 7.4 million. How many people have died to date? less than 1,000. 









Bird flu pandemic 'could kill 150m'


A global influenza pandemic is imminent and will kill up to 150 million people, the UN official in charge of coordinating the worldwide response to an outbreak has warned.




www.theguardian.com





"Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks:



UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
The paper was very much too pessimistic
Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
The results will eventually be similar for all countries
Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available
Here is the link: Swedish expert: why lockdowns are the wrong policy - The Post


----------



## Bill13

The Wash Post headline article today was very good. An in-depth report on what happened at the CDC that caused the US to lag so far behind other nations in testing. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/inve...7d3824-7139-11ea-aa80-c2470c6b2034_story.html


----------



## Bill13

An interview with one of the Stanford study authors: The Antibodies


----------



## WildBoar

Bill13 said:


> The Wash Post headline article today was very good. An in-depth report on what happened at the CDC that caused the US to lag so far behind other nations in testing.
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/inve...7d3824-7139-11ea-aa80-c2470c6b2034_story.html


I did get a laugh seeing that in print today. For several weeks they laid the lack of tests at the President's feet. Now that they cannot deny there was actually a screw up, they did not discuss at all their previous claims.

Unbiased they are not...


----------



## Bert2368

Wa Po article is behind paywall. Quote pertinent material?



> I did get a laugh seeing that in print today. For several weeks they laid the lack of tests at the President's feet. Now that they cannot deny there was actually a screw up, they did not discuss at all their previous claims.


----------



## chinacats

CDC screwed up (process was producing tests in same room w contaminated samples which is a sign of much bigger problem) but there were plenty of opportunities to acquire other tests during this time...none of this is actually new news...story is also in NYTimes which has removed their paywall for covid news...


----------



## ian

Deleted.


----------



## HRC_64

chinacats said:


> CDC screwed up (process was *producing tests in same room w contaminated samples* which is a sign of much bigger problem) ...



 The romans would have lined these people up and take out every tenth one.


----------



## WildBoar

Either that or 95% of them would have been killed, and the WaPo article about it would indicate they were decimated.

(yeah, they like using that word a lot, and it's never for 10%)


----------



## ian

WildBoar said:


> Either that or 95% of them would have been killed, and the WaPo article about it would indicate they were decimated.
> 
> (yeah, they like using that word a lot, and it's never for 10%)



Hmm, I’d argue that at this point the 10% meaning is a historical use of the word. Can’t stop the evolution of language!

That said, if any of you say “funner” I’ll ****ing shank you.


----------



## Bert2368

So many screw ups in hindsight. And now, so many people trying desperately to re-write history or at least throwing out so much chaffe that tracing what they really did and said at crunch time will be very hard for their surviving constituents.

--------

Here is an interesting article describing how Oz's Northern Territory successfully prevented their citizens from experiencing community spread:









The NT is the only jurisdiction in Australia without a COVID-19 death. And it wants to keep it that way


Tomorrow marks two weeks since the last positive test for COVID-19 in the NT. One medical expert says that's 90 per cent good government planning and 10 per cent good luck.




mobile.abc.net.au





28 cases out of around 244,000 people, all but 2 (household of returning infected travelers) were among returning travelers. ZERO DEATHS. Two weeks now since any new cases detected. This is what "doing it right" looks like, in my opinion.

Lifting restrictions because no new cases are being detected and businesses wants to start making money again?



> Will border controls stay?
> 
> Monday will mark two weeks since the last confirmed case of COVID-19 in the NT, but the NT's COVID-19 team says border control measures will remain in place for the "foreseeable future".
> 
> "They are the most effective way of preventing spread into the NT community," a spokeswoman said.
> 
> "We will consider adjusting restrictions only when clinical advice indicates it is in the best interest of the Northern Territory community to do so."
> 
> Health Minister Natasha Fyles agreed and said while she knew the strict measures in place were "tiring", it was important for Territorians to continue to do the right thing — and for tourists to stay away — in order to keep people in the Territory safe.
> 
> "The Northern Territory is in a unique position, it's one of the safest places in the world — we want to keep it that way," she said.



That is what a "very stable genius" might sound like, IMHO.


----------



## M1k3

Decimating funner anyone?


----------



## Michi

Bill13 said:


> Sweden has decided on a different approach, the one I wish we had followed.


I'm not sure it worked out all that well from them. Right now, the death rate (vs recorded cases) in the US is 5.3%. In Sweden, it is 10.7%. If the Swedish experience were to translate to the US situation, that would have approximately doubled the number of deaths in the US, to around 80,000. (Sweden's testing rate is 66% that of the US, which does not explain a 200% relative death rate.)

Sweden's strategy has also come under increasing criticism:

Critics question Swedish approach as coronavirus death toll reaches 1,000

Note that 600 (well over one-third of fatalities) in Sweden were recorded in the past five days. Looking at Sweden's infection rate over the past two weeks, it is obvious that they have not yet seen the worst of their death toll.

It very much looks like Sweden's approach is a guarantee for a lot of dead people.


----------



## Michi

ian said:


> That said, if any of you say “funner” I’ll ****ing shank you.


@M1k3's reply was so much funner than yours…


----------



## ian

Michi said:


> @M1k3's reply was so much funner than yours…



I’m going to mail you a shank. Please stick yourself with it.

#socialdistancing


----------



## daveb

Michi said:


> I'm not sure it worked out all that well from them. Right now, the death rate (vs recorded cases) in the US is 5.3%. In Sweden, it is 10.7%. If the Swedish experience were to translate to the US situation, that would have approximately doubled the number of deaths in the US, to around 80,000. (Sweden's testing rate is 66% that of the US, which does not explain a 200% relative death rate.)



But Sweden's "hands off" approach means that testing would be directed at the obvious cases. Thus a higher death rate. Comparing two population groups is meaningless unless the many, many, differences can controlled for. Numbers are being invented to support the conclusions the user wants to make. It's all:








And what could be funner than a flag?


----------



## Michi

daveb said:


> But Sweden's "hands off" approach means that testing would be directed at the obvious cases. Thus a higher death rate. Comparing two population groups is meaningless unless the many, many, differences can controlled for.


Yes, I agree that just comparing aggregate numbers comes with lots of caveats.

But we do know that social distancing works. Australia, New Zealand, and Germany are among the poster children for successful suppression. What they have in common is that they clamped down early and hard.



daveb said:


> And what could be funner than a flag?


This one is for you


----------



## daveb

I'm just cynical enough to consider:

Prison access is controlled by the state.

The state is "protecting" inmates with early release, trying to mitigate a health problem.

Any inmate that dies during this period is automatically a Corno victim. 

Who wants a pick on first lawsuit filed against a state for negligence in treatment of inmates?

#LAW


----------



## ian

daveb said:


> And what could be funner than a flag?



I will assassinate you all.


----------



## daveb

Don't bring a knife to a gun fight


----------



## Michi

ian said:


> I will assassinate you all.


I have a similar aversion to "youse". Makes my hair stand on end…


----------



## WildBoar

Deci means one-tenth, so misuse is a lot more due to ignorance than language evolution. It just *sounds* massive. If the users knew it meant only one out of ten they would simply switch to 'totally destroyed', "wiped most of those fuskers out" or something funner like that. I'm sure youse can appreciate that.


----------



## ian

WildBoar said:


> Deci means one-tenth, so misuse is a lot more due to ignorance than language evolution. It just *sounds* massive. If the users knew it meant only one out of ten they would simply switch to 'totally destroyed', "wiped most of those fuskers out" or something funner like that. I'm sure youse can appreciate that.



I agree that most people don’t think about the etymology, but just think about how it’s commonly used nowadays. Isn’t that the definition of language evolution? I mean, any dictionary will include the colloquial definition in additional to ‘reduce by 10%’. Eg Oxford, MW or Dictionary.com.

Are you upset when people use 'myriad' to mean something other than 10,000? 

I'll grant you that it's frustrating that deci- is a well understood prefix, so if you start thinking that decimate should mean "reduce by 10%" then it's hard to stop. Dammit. Now you've got me up in arms about this too. I bet if we decimate the ignorant youth they'll learn their lesson. Any more slaughter than that would depress the economy enough that it wouldn't be worth it, though.



Michi said:


> I have a similar aversion to "youse". Makes my hair stand on end…



Btw, I think "all y'all", which is the plural of "y'all", which is the plural of "you", is amazing.


----------



## WildBoar

I'm not upset about it. My comment was specific to the Washington Post being fond of it -- and they should know better.


----------



## Michi

Michi said:


> It very much looks like Sweden's approach is a guarantee for a lot of dead people.


Modeling underscores the importance of social distancing. This was just published by (Australian) ABC News:

Victoria's chief health officer Brett Sutton is releasing modelling around what could have occurred if the state had only implemented a travel ban and 14-day quarantine for Australians returning home.​​He says without strict social-distancing measures, the state would have reached "58,000 infections per day" at its peak and 650 deaths per day.​​


> _"So literally, hundreds of thousands of [Victorians] infected if we had just had isolation and quarantine in place. That would have, on this modelling, led to 7,000 ventilated beds required."_​











No new coronavirus cases in SA, WA or Queensland in past 24 hours


New South Wales Health confirms 19 new cases of coronavirus on board the Ruby Princess cruise ship, while South Australia, Western Australia and Queensland report no new cases in the past 24 hours.




www.abc.net.au


----------



## Luftmensch

WildBoar said:


> (yeah, they like using that word a lot, and it's never for 10%)





ian said:


> I’d argue that at this point the 10% meaning is a historical use of the word.



I read this article a while ago :

Decimate does not mean to kill one in every 10

... it depends on how flexible you are about language. I'll opt for the taxation definition


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> I have a similar aversion to "youse". Makes my hair stand on end…





ian said:


> Btw, I think "all y'all", which is the plural of "y'all", which is the plural of "you", is amazing.



Hehe.... Oh dear.... okay:

People who end sentences with a conjunction
The word "irregardless"
Some modern nouns that have been turned into verbs (deplane, keyboarding)

That said, these are all perfectly cromulent usages of the English language.


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> People who end sentences with a conjunction


That's fair dinkum in Stralia, but…


----------



## M1k3




----------



## Luftmensch

Bert2368 said:


> his is what "doing it right" looks like, in my opinion.
> 
> Lifting restrictions because no new cases are being detected and businesses wants to start making money again?



Absolutely. 

For international observers of Australia, it is important to understand that Australia's Government firmly occupies the 'right' side of politics. I have many things I _could_ say about the Government's policies and messaging in general. So as not to violate the forums policies, all I will say is: after a fumbled start, the Government reasonably quickly appeared to take direction from experts and the states. In Australia, despite what I consider to be highly partisan politics, there is still room for expert advice. 

Our current policies? I wouldn't have it any other way. We are an island nation. The majority of our territory is extremely low density. The Sweden model would just be plain reckless here. We have an opportunity to eliminate it and return to a mostly normal life. It would be lazy to not try and strive for that.


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> We have an opportunity to eliminate it and return to a mostly normal life. It would be lazy to not try and strive for that.


I do hope that we'll get there. The "eradication" word has so far been mostly avoided but, lately, it has been popping up. We have quite a way to go yet though, and it may not work out. This virus is super-aggressive, and I expect that a few cases per week will keep slipping through the net for some time yet.

If we do get to zero, it'll then be a matter of border control. Currently, 64.1% of Australia's infections were caused by overseas arrivals. (25.1% are local infections with a known source, 9.9% are local infections from an unknown source, and 0.9% are under investigation.)

We probably have a chance of returning to almost "normal" soon (ignoring that the economic damage is far from "normal"). But I don't see how Australia can risk opening its borders again while the virus is still rampant in many parts of the world.

We have a few hundred people arriving today and tomorrow from India. They'll be taken under escort to hotels and be in supervised quarantine there for the next two weeks. If we manage to not have any leaks from such repatriation flights, we'll be fine. But I don't expect it to turn out perfect.


----------



## Luftmensch

I doubt we'll get to zero...

If done right, I imagine the numbers will be so low that contact tracing and isolation will be manageable. In that scenario I also would expect hospital systems will be more than capable of providing the best level of care. Life might not be 100% normal for a long while, but it will be much more so than now. I agree, we're sure to have closed boarders for the duration of the pandemic. Thats the advantage of being an island!

Even as things relax I suspect people will exercise caution and demand a different life-style. The number of people I have spoken to who want to make working from home (one or two days a week) permanent is heartening.


----------



## HRC_64

OK... Lets talk about TESTING...

here are some interesting facts (chek em yourself also):

PCR test cost is ~$100/per lab cost, right now (per Dr. Brix comments)
PCR test is ~$200-300 total cost if includes doctors/overhead/etc (reasonable estimate)
PCR test is only good for ~24 hours (Dr Fauci)
PCT Testing interval probably OK for 1 week (5 day incubation) (Dr Fauci)

Per Worker: 52 tests / year
Per Worker Cost: $5,200 (lab costs)
Per Worker Cost (fully loaded): $10,000 to $15,000 /year


----------



## HRC_64

PCR Tests (Continued)

PCR - Last year industrial base capaicty - 2-3 million tests/year
PCR - Updated/current industrial base - 50-60 million tests/year

USA workforce: 160 million
USA worforce x 52 test/year : 8.3 BILLION test procedures
USA required expansion: ~150x current industrial base (8.3b vs 50-60 million)

USA cost of testing: ~$1-2 Trillion/year (8.3 billion tests x $1-200/per each cost)
USA Testing GDP% displacement: ~10% ($2T/$21 trillion GDP)

Keep in mind:
TOTAL US Government spend is ~$4.4T per year (all expenditures)

Somewhere between "delusional" and "highly unlikely" seems to be about right
if we are asking if this is a feasible testing approach.

(assuming maths are rougly accurate)


----------



## WildBoar

Won't stop some people from saying this should be happening, and the federal gov't should magically be paying for it while not increasing debt.


----------



## Bill13

An update on Sweden, so far so good - or as good as things can be expected togo Keeping my fingers crossed! : The Swedish experiment looks like it's paying off | The Spectator


----------



## Michi

Bill13 said:


> An update on Sweden, so far so good - or as good as things can be expected togo Keeping my fingers crossed! : The Swedish experiment looks like it's paying off | The Spectator


It depends on whether you mind that the elderly are dying or not.









Anger in Sweden as elderly pay price for coronavirus strategy


Staff with no masks or sanitiser fear for residents as hundreds die in care homes




www.theguardian.com





Sweden currently has a little over 1,500 infections per million population. Australia has 260, about 1/6th of that.

Sweden has 175 deaths per million population, Australia has 3.

I guess an extra thousand or so granddads and grandmas are neither here nor there…

Edit: I forgot to mention that they would have soon died anyway, right?


----------



## Luftmensch

I am all for the idea of a progressive taxation system with a high top end to fund a social democratic welfare state. Whether rich or poor, a strong safety net, free education and universal healthcare sound pretty great to me. Throw in the trade-union movement and government regulated markets: "and baby, you've got a stew going":


----------



## pistachio

HRC_64 said:


> PCR Tests (Continued)
> [...]
> USA cost of testing: ~$1-2 Trillion/year (8.3 billion tests x $1-200/per each cost)
> USA Testing GDP% displacement: ~10% ($2T/$21 trillion GDP)
> Somewhere between "delusional" and "highly unlikely" seems to be about right
> if we are asking if this is a feasible testing approach.


If you take a nonsensical scenario and multiply dubious numbers, you get nonsense out. Though it's hard to see how it's a helpful or useful exercise.


----------



## Bert2368

> If you take a nonsensical scenario and multiply dubious numbers, you get nonsense out. Though it's hard to see how it's a helpful or useful exercise.



Oh, come on- EVERYONE ELSE IS DOING IT!


----------



## chinacats

Bill13 said:


> An update on Sweden, so far so good - or as good as things can be expected togo Keeping my fingers crossed! : The Swedish experiment looks like it's paying off | The Spectator



Current death rate is over 11 percent of those infected...successful, really?


----------



## Michi

Bill13 said:


> An update on Sweden, so far so good


To underscore the point, here are the active cases for Sweden as of today:



And the active cases for Australia:


If Australia had done what Sweden did:

Australia would have 4,400 dead people now, instead of the 71 it actually has
Australia would have 38,000 infections that are still rising, instead of the 6,600 it actually has (and that have fallen to around 20 new infections per day)
Australia would have an overwhelmed hospital system, meaning even more fatalities than the projected figures suggest
Sweden's approach in Australia would likely have turned Australia into another Italy or Spain.

When politics overrule science, things usually go pear-shaped. That is because denial of reality does not change reality.


----------



## labor of love

Wait a sec, I thought like 30% of the population has Covid 19 we just haven’t tested enough people yet to prove it.


----------



## M1k3

That would most likely apply to Sweden also. Not Australia and Sweden is exempt. Maybe not exactly that percentage but yeah...


----------



## HRC_64

pistachio said:


> If you take a nonsensical scenario and multiply dubious numbers, you get nonsense out.



The post is very easy to follow and the data are all public.

You can actaully omit just about any one single assumption and not alter the analysis.

eg, quantity = [email protected] x 52 weeks a year (there is no asusmption here to challenge) = 8.3 billion test/year. You can sanity check this another way and ask "if I have 160 million people and 60 million tests/year" is that good enough?

No, not if you understand the test and the disease you are testing for.

You have to test every time there is a possible exposure, which for airborne virus is much different than virus like EBOLA or HIV where you need blood or body fluid contact. Its much easier to confirm "no body fluid contact" than it ist to confirm "no contaminated air contact" (especially once you consider asymptomatic carriers).

So you need testing on the order of magnitude of 1/week not 1/year. This means you need n=~50 PCR-test per year per worker.


----------



## HRC_64

The Stanford (Santa Clara) and USC studies (Los Angeles County) turned out to be done by the same people. And yes, using facebook to source samples in the middle of a pandemic is about as dumb as it sounds. Although that was only the tip of the iceberg.






Concerns with that Stanford study of coronavirus prevalence « Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science







statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu







> I think the authors of the above-linked paper owe us all an apology. We wasted time and effort discussing this paper whose main selling point was some numbers that were essentially the product of a statistical error.



LMAO 



> *T**he study got attention and credibility in part because of the reputation of Stanford*. Fair enough: Stanford’s a great institution. Amazing things are done at Stanford. But Stanford has also paid a small price for publicizing this work, because people will remember that “the Stanford study” was hyped but it had issues. So there is a cost here. The next study out of Stanford will have a little less of that credibility bank to borrow from. *If I were a Stanford professor, I’d be kind of annoyed.* So I think the authors of the study owe an apology not just to us, but to Stanford.


----------



## HRC_64

Another analysis, different person (Stanford PhD):









Peer Review of “COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California”


The high reported positive rate in this serosurvey may be explained by the false positive rate of the test and/or by sample recruitment…




medium.com





Same/similar takaways


----------



## Bill13

Michi said:


> To underscore the point, here are the active cases for Sweden as of today:
> View attachment 77784
> 
> And the active cases for Australia:
> View attachment 77785
> 
> If Australia had done what Sweden did:
> 
> Australia would have 4,400 dead people now, instead of the 71 it actually has
> Australia would have 38,000 infections that are still rising, instead of the 6,600 it actually has (and that have fallen to around 20 new infections per day)
> Australia would have an overwhelmed hospital system, meaning even more fatalities than the projected figures suggest
> Sweden's approach in Australia would likely have turned Australia into another Italy or Spain.
> 
> When politics overrule science, things usually go pear-shaped. That is because denial of reality does not change reality.






Michi said:


> To underscore the point, here are the active cases for Sweden as of today:
> View attachment 77784
> 
> And the active cases for Australia:
> View attachment 77785
> 
> If Australia had done what Sweden did:
> 
> Australia would have 4,400 dead people now, instead of the 71 it actually has
> Australia would have 38,000 infections that are still rising, instead of the 6,600 it actually has (and that have fallen to around 20 new infections per day)
> Australia would have an overwhelmed hospital system, meaning even more fatalities than the projected figures suggest
> Sweden's approach in Australia would likely have turned Australia into another Italy or Spain.
> 
> When politics overrule science, things usually go pear-shaped. That is because denial of reality does not change reality.



Science is dependent on politicians for funding which makes science political. Along with the military industrial complex we can add the scientific government grant dependent complex. Eisenhower is famous for his quote about the former but he was also worried about the latter and said "we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.”

Your comparison is flawed and it's worse by many multitudes of the well known sin of cross comparing phase 3 medical trials. You are comparing an island with a population density according to the web site world population review "Australia has a very low population density of just 3 people per square kilometer, or 7 per square mile. This makes it one of the least densely populated countries in the world." to a country where from the same web site "Sweden Population density is recorded as *57.5 people per square mile (22.2 people per square kilometer)"*

I recommend watching the video I posted where the Swedish scientist explains they expect to have more deaths up front but at they develop immunity they expect to be around the same as other European countries. But without destroying their economy.

But regardless can we all agree that the world would be better off if Sweden has chosen the correct course. If they are correct (which granted is unknown at this point) they will end up with about the same number of deaths at the end to comparable countries, but without giving up freedoms (like our first amendment) even if temporarily, and without causing massive unemployment, government debt, poverty, increased suicide etc. I am hoping they are correct.


----------



## ian

Interesting takes on the Santa Clara study, @HRC_64. Thanks for posting. Glad we’re finally getting some expertish opinions, rather than just listening to each other talk. The problem with self-selection in the study seems like it could be a thing, given how hard it was to get tests otherwise in the Bay area. Maybe it would have been a good idea to explicitly say in the advertisement “you will not be told your results!”. Or maybe that would be irresponsible... because if you get positives I suppose you want them to take precautions? Worth it for the study? Hmm.

Anyway, looking forward to more data from similar studies, and more expert opinions. Not planning on “L-ingMFAO” at any of this. More info, more studies = better.


----------



## Michi

Bill13 said:


> Your comparison is flawed and it's worse by many multitudes of the well known sin of cross comparing phase 3 medical trials. You are comparing an island with a population density according to the web site world population review "Australia has a very low population density of just 3 people per square kilometer, or 7 per square mile.


I don't think the comparison is flawed. That is because the entire interior of Australia is empty. There are effectively no people there. I imagine that Sweden has large unpopulated areas as well, so looking at the population density of Sweden overall is just as as meaningless as it is for Australia.

Population density of Melbourne in the CBD is around 20,000 people per square kilometre. Probably not that much different from any other modern city. In the suburbs, population density is lower because we have generally more land available, and because housing policy here has long favoured low-density living. Regardless, the places where people get infected, that is, shopping centres, public transport, schools, work places, etc. are very much the same as they are in any other first-world country.

I understand that comparing overall statistics is fraught with problems because that ignores too many variables. Regardless, it seems bloody obvious that Australia has managed to very effectively put the lid on the infections, and Sweden has not. It follows that, had Australia done the same as Sweden, there would have been _many_ more infections and deaths.

But we don't need to argue about it. All we need to do is wait. I'll be watching with interest as various countries relax the restrictions. My prediction is that they'll promptly put them back on again once the numbers start to spike. Even assuming that we have detected only 1/10th of the actual number of infections, that still leaves 90% of the population susceptible. Relax social distancing, and the numbers will spike just as quickly as they did the first time.


----------



## HRC_64

ian said:


> Not planning on “L-ingMFAO” at any of this. More info, more studies = better.



I highly recommend you watch this video. The opening 10 minutes is pretty compelling so please give it a try. You can understand how fundamentally ad-hoc alot of science/medicine is with respect to a novel disease pathogen. Don't want to comment too much more. Just suggest anyone interestd watch this for as long as you can (its gets more technical as it goes on).


----------



## Nemo

A VA study found that hydroxychloroquine caused more harm than benefit:









Outcomes of hydroxychloroquine usage in United States veterans hospitalized with Covid-19


BACKGROUND Despite limited and conflicting data on the use of hydroxychloroquine in patients with Covid-19, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has authorized the emergency use of this drug when clinical trials are unavailable or infeasible. Hydroxychloroquine, alone or in combination with...




www.medrxiv.org





I hasten to add (as do the authors) that this was NOT a randomised controlled trial (it was a retrospective analysis).

The upshot is what we all already knew- you need to wait for actual scientifically valid studies before we can say yea or nay.


----------



## ian

HRC_64 said:


> I highly recommend you watch this video. The opening 10 minutes is pretty compelling so please give it a try. You can understand how fundamentally ad-hoc alot of science/medicine is with respect to a novel disease pathogen. Don't want to comment too much more. Just suggest anyone interestd watch this for as long as you can (its gets more technical as it goes on).




Thanks for the link. It’s an interesting conversation, and if one wants to, one can quickly decipher most of the jargon with a google search. It’s really interesting to hear everyone talking about the different things they’re trying, and it was surprising to me how much they stressed the perils of intubation. I only watched an hour of it, though, because I have a child and that was all the time I could spare. 

I’m not sure exactly how this video was a response to anything we were talking about above. I see people trying their best to study and treat a new disease as best they can. None of them are laughing, and neither am I.


----------



## Michi

I watched most of it and stopped probably about 15 minutes short. I thought it was interesting, and it also shows how much of a patient's outcome depends on the instinct and experience of the doctor. I remember an ER doctor telling me years ago that intubation was a last resort because, once someone is on a respirator (meaning they have to be unconscious and with a muscle relaxant), it can be very difficult to get them off the respirator again. And, while on the respirator, other complications can arise quite easily, such as atrophied muscles and susceptibility to other infections. (Ironically, pneumonia is one of the risks.)

I just came across this article:

Some coronavirus patients are still testing positive months later and experts are not sure why

No-one seems to have a handle on what's going on there. I'm hoping that this won't turn out to be another curve ball.


----------



## Bill13

Looks like the results of the VA study was caused by a very poor design, and that is being generous. My question is why was it so poorly designed and who designed it or even allowed it to go forward? Was it intentional or (hopefully) incompetence? CNN spent a fair about of time on this study. I look forward to their reporting in the future on how such a flawed study came to be. You can bet Robert Wilkie who is the head of the VA is doing so.


Dr Raoult's response to the VA trial.

"In the current period, it seems that passion dominates rigorous and balanced scientific analysis and may lead to scientific misconduct. The article by Magagnoli et al. (Magagnoli, 2020) is an absolutely spectacular example of this. Indeed, in this work, it is concluded, in the end, that hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) would double the mortality in patients with COVID with a fatality rate of 28% (versus 11% in the NoHCQ group), which is extraordinarily hard to believe. The analysis of the data shows two major biases, which show a welling to be convinced before starting the work :

The first is that lymphopenia is twice as common in the HCQ groups (25% in the HCQ, 31% in the HCQ+AZ group versus 14% in the no HCQ group, p =.02) and there is an absolute correlation between lymphopenia (<0.5G/L) and fatality rate, which is well known (Tan, 2020) and confirmed here : 28% deaths, 22% and 11% in the HCQ, HCQ+AZ and No HCQ group, respectively. Lymphopenia is the most obvious criterion of patient severity (in our cohort, lymphocytes in dead individuals (n=22, mean ± standard deviation, 0.94 ± 0.45), versus in the living (n=2405, 1.79 ± 0.84, p < .0001)). As the authors acknowledge, the severity of the patients in the different groups was very different, and their analysis can only make sense if there is a selection of patients with the same degree of severity, i.e. the same percentage of lymphopenia.

The second major bias is that in an attempt to provide meaningful data, by eliminating the initial severity at the time of treatment, two tables are shown: one table where drugs are prescribed before intubation, and which shows no significant difference in the 3 different groups (9/90 (10%) in the HCQ group, 11/101 (10. 9%) HCQ+AZ, and 15/177 (8.5%) in the group without HCQ, chi-square = 0.47, ddl = 2, p = 0.79), and one table, where it is not clear when the drugs were prescribed, where there are significant differences. These differences are most likely related to the fact that the patients had been intubated for some before receiving hydroxychloroquine in desperation. It is notable that this is unreasonable at the time of the cytokine storm, as it is unlikely that hydrochloroquine alone would be able to control patients at this stage of the disease.

Moreover, incomprehensibly, the “untreated” group actually received azithromycin in 30% of cases, without this group being analyzed in any distinct way. Azithromycin is also a proposed treatment for COVID (Gautret, 2020) with in vitro efficacy (Andreani, 2020), and to mix it with patients who are supposedly untreated is something that is closer to scientific fraud than reasonable analysis.

Altogether these 3 voluntary biases are all pushing to the idea of dangerosity of hydroxychloroquine safest drug as reported on nearly 1 million people (Lane, 2020).

All in all, this is a work that shows that, in this period, it is possible to propose things that do not stand up to any methodological analysis to try to demonstrate that one is right.


----------



## ian

Bill13 said:


> Looks like the results of the VA study was caused by a very poor design, and that is being generous. My question is why was it so poorly designed and who designed it or even allowed it to go forward? Was it intentional or (hopefully) incompetence? CNN spent a fair about of time on this study. I look forward to their reporting in the future on how such a flawed study came to be. You can bet Robert Wilkie who is the head of the VA is doing so.
> 
> 
> Dr Raoult's response to the VA trial.
> 
> "In the current period, it seems that passion dominates rigorous and balanced scientific analysis and may lead to scientific misconduct. The article by Magagnoli et al. (Magagnoli, 2020) is an absolutely spectacular example of this. Indeed, in this work, it is concluded, in the end, that hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) would double the mortality in patients with COVID with a fatality rate of 28% (versus 11% in the NoHCQ group), which is extraordinarily hard to believe. The analysis of the data shows two major biases, which show a welling to be convinced before starting the work :
> 
> The first is that lymphopenia is twice as common in the HCQ groups (25% in the HCQ, 31% in the HCQ+AZ group versus 14% in the no HCQ group, p =.02) and there is an absolute correlation between lymphopenia (<0.5G/L) and fatality rate, which is well known (Tan, 2020) and confirmed here : 28% deaths, 22% and 11% in the HCQ, HCQ+AZ and No HCQ group, respectively. Lymphopenia is the most obvious criterion of patient severity (in our cohort, lymphocytes in dead individuals (n=22, mean ± standard deviation, 0.94 ± 0.45), versus in the living (n=2405, 1.79 ± 0.84, p < .0001)). As the authors acknowledge, the severity of the patients in the different groups was very different, and their analysis can only make sense if there is a selection of patients with the same degree of severity, i.e. the same percentage of lymphopenia.
> 
> The second major bias is that in an attempt to provide meaningful data, by eliminating the initial severity at the time of treatment, two tables are shown: one table where drugs are prescribed before intubation, and which shows no significant difference in the 3 different groups (9/90 (10%) in the HCQ group, 11/101 (10. 9%) HCQ+AZ, and 15/177 (8.5%) in the group without HCQ, chi-square = 0.47, ddl = 2, p = 0.79), and one table, where it is not clear when the drugs were prescribed, where there are significant differences. These differences are most likely related to the fact that the patients had been intubated for some before receiving hydroxychloroquine in desperation. It is notable that this is unreasonable at the time of the cytokine storm, as it is unlikely that hydrochloroquine alone would be able to control patients at this stage of the disease.
> 
> Moreover, incomprehensibly, the “untreated” group actually received azithromycin in 30% of cases, without this group being analyzed in any distinct way. Azithromycin is also a proposed treatment for COVID (Gautret, 2020) with in vitro efficacy (Andreani, 2020), and to mix it with patients who are supposedly untreated is something that is closer to scientific fraud than reasonable analysis.
> 
> Altogether these 3 voluntary biases are all pushing to the idea of dangerosity of hydroxychloroquine safest drug as reported on nearly 1 million people (Lane, 2020).
> 
> All in all, this is a work that shows that, in this period, it is possible to propose things that do not stand up to any methodological analysis to try to demonstrate that one is right.



So, I'm not equipped to weigh in on how big these issues are that he raised. But before condemning the VA, how about we just wait for more opinions, preferably by independent doctors that haven't been plugging hydroxychloroquine for months? We can also wait for more data --- a larger study is supposed to conclude by the end of April, iirc. Presumably the NIH, etc..., are making the best decisions they can given available data, and we here at KKF certainly don't know better. In the words of Dr. Raoult,



Bill13 said:


> In the current period, it seems that passion dominates rigorous and balanced scientific analysis


----------



## Michi

Bill13 said:


> All in all, this is a work that shows that, in this period, it is possible to propose things that do not stand up to any methodological analysis to try to demonstrate that one is right.


I get the impression that you really wish that hydroxychloroquine would work, despite there being no clear consensus among the medicos whether that is actually the case. In the absence of a consensus, why push it? What are doctors supposed to do? Use it and hope for the best? And if it doesn't, say "oops, let's try with another patient"?

I'm quite happy to wait until we have a more definite answer either way. If it works, great, let's go for it. If it doesn't, fine, at least we checked it out with due diligence. I'm wary of ad-hoc experimentation on human subjects.


----------



## Garner Harrison

Every time I see this thread title I think to myself, "Its hit the world for awhile now, kinda past prepping stage" 

I vote to rename this Covid news/Theories


----------



## ian

It’s true. This thread is really a rarity in how far it’s gone off topic.


----------



## Michi

ian said:


> It’s true. This thread is really a rarity in how far it’s gone off topic.


I agree. This almost never happens in other threads around here.


----------



## Michi

This is why this virus is so hideous. It's the silent and aggressive spread of infections while hardly anyone shows symptoms:









Hidden Outbreaks Spread Through U.S. Cities Far Earlier Than Americans Knew, Estimates Say (Published 2020)


New York, Boston, San Francisco, Chicago and Seattle had undetected outbreaks long before testing showed a major problem, according to a model.




www.nytimes.com


----------



## chinacats

Michi said:


> I get the impression that you really wish that hydroxychloroquine would work, despite there being no clear consensus among the medicos whether that is actually the case. In the absence of a consensus, why push it? What are doctors supposed to do? Use it and hope for the best? And if it doesn't, say "oops, let's try with another patient"?
> 
> I'm quite happy to wait until we have a more definite answer either way. If it works, great, let's go for it. If it doesn't, fine, at least we checked it out with due diligence. I'm wary of ad-hoc experimentation on human subjects.



This has been a huge waste of time and resources vs allowing doctors to try to find solutions that make sense. No more magical solutions being pushed by people who clearly know nothing about the science...

This is a time for creative solutions but not wishful thinking and pushing the latest fox conspiracy...notice all those tv folks shut up and moved on after preaching nonsense nonstop for the past month and a half...looking forward to their next brilliant medical advice that after being pushed by the president will be another huge waste of time for doctors that don't have it.

Politicians need to stay the **** out of the science and cheerlead from the sidelines. Everyone wants a solution and sooner the better. Scientists and physicians do their best work when left alone...trust the goddamn science and we'll get there sooner w less loss of life.


----------



## ian

chinacats said:


> Scientists and physicians do their best work when left alone



And given lots of money!


----------



## ian

ian said:


> And given lots of money!



As a scientist, I endorse this message!


----------



## Barmoley

Michi said:


> This is why this virus is so hideous. It's the silent and aggressive spread of infections while hardly anyone shows symptoms:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hidden Outbreaks Spread Through U.S. Cities Far Earlier Than Americans Knew, Estimates Say (Published 2020)
> 
> 
> New York, Boston, San Francisco, Chicago and Seattle had undetected outbreaks long before testing showed a major problem, according to a model.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com


The fact that hardly anyone shows symptoms is a good thing. Just means that a lot more people had it already and that it is a lot less deadly than previously thought. Also, means that some of the actions by the governments around the world were probably a panic based over reaction and not as useful as some might think. If it is as contagious as it seems to be and if it has been around for month longer, locking down countries later in the game than we thought was probably less useful than some thought. Wearing face masks and testing more people with less severe symptoms, that made sense from the very beginning and would've probably resulted in better outcome all around, but for various reasons this wasn't done.


----------



## ian

Barmoley said:


> If it is as contagious as it seems to be and if it has been around for month longer, locking down countries later in the game than we thought was probably less useful than some thought



I think it's probably still quite useful to lock down a country at this point. Even the high estimates of 3% being infected, for instance, still leaves a ton of people waiting to be infected. Given that the point of the lockdown is mitigation rather than containment, it seems very useful to prevent the number of infections (and hence people needing hospitalization) from increasing too fast now that we are at capacity in many of our hospitals. Having the number of covid patients double from 1 to 2 to 4 didn't stress the system, but having it double from (capacity) to 2(capacity) is a huge problem. I'm not saying it wouldn't have been smart to shut down earlier, but let's not dismiss the current lockdown because there are more infections than we previously thought.


----------



## WildBoar

Lockdown a country the geographic size of the US, and with a ton of cities? Not sure how that could happen.


----------



## ian

WildBoar said:


> Lockdown a country the geographic size of the US, and with a ton of cities? Not sure how that could happen.



I’m assuming that @Barmoley meant the “lockdown” that has already happened, where nonessential businesses are for the most part closed and people are told to stay home.


----------



## ian

Btw, I remember arguing above that the results of the (perhaps dubious) Santa Clara study perhaps indicated earlier spread rather than higher R_0. If there actually were two deaths in Santa Clara in early Feb, as was reported I believe, maybe this could make sense? Anyway, I’m looking forward to more seroprevalence studies.


----------



## Barmoley

Yes. I meant "lockdown" that already happened. It is in progress, so this discussion is theoretical at best. Santa Clara study was highly criticized and for good reasons, but now there are more studies and more data that shows that the virus was at least in California months before we thought. It is very possible that more than 3% of people are/were infected, numbers are all over the place. It is possible and likely that the virus is a lot less deadly than first thought. Locking down economies is a very bad tool to combat this, we will see more of these viruses in the future and we need better mechanisms to deal with them than what was done this time. I think it is OK and even beneficial to question what was done and the reasons for it. We can't shut down economies every time there is a new virus. CA hospitals don't seem to be at capacity and many people are suffering because they are afraid or are told by doctors not to go to the hospitals to not get COVID and to not overburden the system that is not close to capacity. For example, wearing masks in public should've been done earlier, the reasons given for not doing that make no sense at all, yes masks are not 100% effective, but they are effective to a high degree. 

My biggest issue is that policies and actions are done based on panic and using models that use incomplete and dubious data at best. It doesn't help that CDC screwed up early testing and that only people with severe symptoms are tested even today. I understand that given the mess a month and a half ago and the time pressure it was difficult to do anything else. I just hope that in the future we will do a better job of figuring out what is actually going on before running around screaming that the sky is falling. It is still not clear if locking down CA to such a degree was needed, assuming the virus was here as early as it seems.


----------



## WildBoar

Here in the DC area I could not characterize what I see as a lockdown. Restaurants and bars may be closed, but seeing lines outside a coffee place is fairly common. Rush hour traffic is down a bit, but regular daytime traffic hasn't gone down by much. And a crapload of people are out walking around. Grocery stores are a mix of scarred poopless people and people who don't seem to give a poop.


----------



## Michi

Barmoley said:


> We can't shut down economies every time there is a new virus. CA hospitals don't seem to be at capacity and many people are suffering because they are afraid or are told by doctors not to go to the hospitals to not get COVID and to not overburden the system that is not close to capacity.
> […]
> It is still not clear if locking down CA to such a degree was needed, assuming the virus was here as early as it seems.


Have you had a look at the East Coast lately? Are you really suggesting that it would have been preferable have LA turn into another NY?

It very much looks like the places that have done best are the ones that implemented restrictions early and decisively.

What do you think would happen if restrictions were lifted? That the other 70% or 80% of the population would suddenly and magically be immune?


----------



## podzap

You all don't understand that the lockdowns are about a global redistribution of wealth. Too much money and power was getting concentrated in China and the rich western countries had to stop them while they were still stoppable. The liberal global economic order is dead - cheap global air travel is dead, done, not coming back.


----------



## podzap

How the Coronavirus Could Create a New Working Class


Experts predict the outbreak will lead to a rise in populism. But will workers turn their rage toward corporate CEOs, or middle-class “elites”?




www.theatlantic.com


----------



## Michi

This is disappointing, though I can't say that I'm surprised:

Health minister now unsure if source code for COVID contact tracing app is safe to release

Sorry guys, but no source, no install.

And as usual, our government is doing its level best to F it up:

Australia's coronavirus tracing app's data storage contract goes offshore to Amazon

Keeping the key store in the same cloud as the data. Right. Putting the data into an off-shore data centre. Right.
That's the sort of thing one learns not to do in "Computer Security 101".

Truly disappointing.


----------



## Michi

podzap said:


> Too much money and power was getting concentrated in China and the rich western countries had to stop them while they were still stoppable.


Huh? So this is all part of some plot?


----------



## Barmoley

Michi said:


> Have you had a look at the East Coast lately? Are you really suggesting that it would have been preferable have LA turn into another NY?
> 
> It very much looks like the places that have done best are the ones that implemented restrictions early and decisively.
> 
> What do you think would happen if restrictions were lifted? That the other 70% or 80% of the population would suddenly and magically be immune?


Yes, I have looked at East Coat lately, no need to be condescending. It is OK to discuss different points of view. It is not clear that LA would turn into NY, there are opinions that the lockdown does not explain why our numbers are so much lower than NY. If it turns out that the virus was here a lot earlier, that does explain some of the variance in numbers as do other differences between LA and NY.


----------



## Michi

podzap said:


> How the Coronavirus Could Create a New Working Class
> 
> 
> Experts predict the outbreak will lead to a rise in populism. But will workers turn their rage toward corporate CEOs, or middle-class “elites”?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theatlantic.com


That's a well-written article, thanks!


----------



## podzap

Michi said:


> Huh? So this is all part of some plot?



United, we will shrink the Chinese economy to the point of collapse while at the same time rebuilding our domestic production of critical supplies. The trade war against China was already severely damaging them by the time they decided to let corona escape Wuhan. Western govs decided to punish them even harder for letting it escape by causing a global depression and drying up the cash flows into Beijing.


----------



## Michi

Barmoley said:


> If it turns out that the virus was here a lot earlier, that does explain some of the variance in numbers as do other differences between LA and NY.


I was under the impression that CA isn't that different in that respect from NY. Apparently, there were loads of people in New York carrying the infection early as well:









Cuomo Says 21% of Those Tested in N.Y.C. Had Virus Antibodies (Published 2020)


The preliminary data suggests that many more New Yorkers may have been infected than was previously believed.




www.nytimes.com







Barmoley said:


> there are opinions that the lockdown does not explain why our numbers are so much lower than NY



Do you have any link? That does indeed sound interesting! Are there other differences that might affect the spread? I can think of density as a possible factor. For example, LA seems to be a lot more spread out geographically than NY, which could contribute to slowing down the spread. What other factors might be there?


----------



## Michi

podzap said:


> United, we will shrink the Chinese economy to the point of collapse while at the same time rebuilding our domestic production of critical supplies. The trade war against China was already severely damaging them by the time they decided to let corona escape Wuhan. Western govs decided to punish them even harder for letting it escape by causing a global depression and drying up the cash flows into Beijing.


I have to say that this seems far-fetched in the extreme to me.


----------



## podzap

Michi said:


> I have to say that this seems far-fetched in the extreme to me.



I'm going to sleep now and I haven't even been drinking! Have fun!


----------



## Michi

podzap said:


> I'm going to sleep now and I haven't even been drinking!


Nite, nite!


----------



## Bill13

Michi said:


> I get the impression that you really wish that hydroxychloroquine would work, despite there being no clear consensus among the medicos whether that is actually the case. In the absence of a consensus, why push it? What are doctors supposed to do? Use it and hope for the best? And if it doesn't, say "oops, let's try with another patient"?
> 
> Of course I hope it works, doesn't everyone?? These are two cheap drugs that are both off patent so the pharmaceutical companies make little money. Which also means even poorer countries will be able to treat many patients. Again, if it works, what is not to like?
> 
> Maybe lost in all this is that Doctors are the ones writing the prescriptions, and if they think based upon the evidence (although incomplete) the HC plus Z is the best choice for their patient, then that is what they should prescribe. Nobody is saying Dr's have to prescribe it. It's popular with Dr's who can see the results. This is the largest survey of Dr's I have found.
> "Hydroxychloroquine was overall chosen as the most effective therapy amongst COVID-19 treaters from a list of 15 options (37% of COVID-19 treaters)" Largest Statistically Significant Study by 6,200 Multi-Country Physicians on COVID-19 Uncovers Treatment Patterns and Puts Pandemic in Context - Sermo
> 
> I'm quite happy to wait until we have a more definite answer either way. If it works, great, let's go for it. If it doesn't, fine, at least we checked it out with due diligence. I'm wary of ad-hoc experimentation on human subjects.



If you want to wait, that's cool with me. If I get this and am not doing well and my Dr thinks this is the best option I'm taking it! If it does not work we go to the second best option.
Not sure why you are wary of ad-hoc "experiments", although it does sound pejorative. Every decision during this pandemic is being made "ad-hoc", including the medical ones.

I don't understand some peoples hostility (not including anyone here, we are just discussing things) to the possibility we may, again, may, of found a cheap treatment for many patients. His second trial has answered what was to me the biggest problem, the small number of patients in the first trial.

I just saw that Gilead's drug did not do well, which sucks. Hopefully they can figure something out. Data on Gilead's remdesivir show no benefit for coronavirus patients


----------



## Barmoley

Michi said:


> I was under the impression that CA isn't that different in that respect from NY. Apparently, there were loads of people in New York carrying the infection early as well:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Cuomo Says 21% of Those Tested in N.Y.C. Had Virus Antibodies (Published 2020)
> 
> 
> The preliminary data suggests that many more New Yorkers may have been infected than was previously believed.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Do you have any link? That does indeed sound interesting! Are there other differences that might affect the spread? I can think of density as a possible factor. For example, LA seems to be a lot more spread out geographically than NY, which could contribute to slowing down the spread. What other factors might be there?


Now, that essential workers in LA can get tested whether they have symptoms or not, I hope they will, to give the rest of us more data on what percentage of the population is sick now. Next, if good antibody tests become widely available we will know more on how many people actually had it and didn't even realize it. It is definitely a dangerous virus and very dangerous for some. It is almost guaranteed that we will see more of these, so we need better mechanisms in place to deal with them.

I don't have specific links. There are a lot of discussions everywhere, many articles, most are weeks old and don't take new data into account. Most of these attribute differences to population density, use of public transportation and ofcourse the earlier lock down in CA. If you read enough of them you will realize that they all repeat the same thing and the most obvious reasons and that they also acknowledge that these don't explain all of the difference. Until we have solid numbers of what portion of the population was actually infected and when, we won't know how much can be attributed to what.

First death attributed to COVID-19 in Santa Clara is now Feb 6, this was from communal transmission, this puts virus being rampant in Santa Clara through December, given how seemingly contagious this virus is how many people actually had it remains to be seen. CA went on lock down March 19 state wide with San Francisco going on March 16. This puts us around 1.5-2 month of virus in the wild in the state before the lock down.


----------



## Bill13

Here is a very interesting paper that is using influenza surveillance networks (their words) and repurposing that data to figure out the spread of Covid 19.









ili_surge/Silverman_Hupert_and_Washburn.pdf at master · jsilve24/ili_surge


Manuscript and Code for the COVID ILI Surge . Contribute to jsilve24/ili_surge development by creating an account on GitHub.




github.com


----------



## Bill13

ian said:


> So, I'm not equipped to weigh in on how big these issues are that he raised. But before condemning the VA, how about we just wait for more opinions, preferably by independent doctors that haven't been plugging hydroxychloroquine for months? We can also wait for more data --- a larger study is supposed to conclude by the end of April, iirc. Presumably the NIH, etc..., are making the best decisions they can given available data, and we here at KKF certainly don't know better. In the words of Dr. Raoult,


Okay, I guess I was not clear enough, my bad. I do not condemn the VA (although clearly they have many other issues which I was not addressing like faking records of wait times), only those responsible for the study design and it's publishment. I do feel they had to know it was garbage and that the media would run with it, so I wonder why. Incompetence on that kind of scale seems unlikely, but I guess it's possible.


----------



## M1k3

California is a lot more spread out and the surrounding "major" cities. Closest major metropolitan area outside of L.A. (I'm including Orange County due to proximity and no real divide). San Diego is closest. Followed by Las Vegas, then San Francisco Bay area... Around NYC in the distance to San Diego or Las Vegas you'd hit which other major metropolitan areas? NYC to Philadelphia is pretty close to the same distance as L.A. to Las Vegas. There's lots of desert between L.A. and Vegas.


----------



## ian

deleted


----------



## Bill13

ian said:


> No worries. I guess I'm just not convinced yet that it was the complete disaster you are describing. As I said above, I don't know enough to argue with the analysis you cited, but so far I only see that one review from a doctor who clearly has skin in the game. A google search just returns a bunch of complimentary articles. Do you have any other opinions that you're relying on? (By scientists, not pundits.)


The Dr I quoted I thought would be enough. I know HC is a treatment he has staked his reputation on but it does not make his factual statements less true. His statements if incorrect will cause a torrent of blowback, by tonight. If all is quiet that can be your answer.


----------



## Bill13

If anyone was still wondering if this was political: Democrats plan to censure lawmaker who credited Trump for COVID-19 recovery


----------



## Michi

Bill13 said:


> If anyone was still wondering if this was political: Democrats plan to censure lawmaker who credited Trump for COVID-19 recovery


Hmmm… All I can say to that is that it is really sad when a pandemic that is killing loads of people becomes a conduit for political point scoring. And I don't care which side is trying to score.

There are incidents on both sides that I find equally distasteful. To keep this discussion from degenerating, I'm not linking to any of them.


----------



## ian

Deleted


----------



## ian

Deleted


----------



## HRC_64

All this political side show I don't think is helpful.
Just like blindly following "experts" if for fools...

The reason I posted that doctor video earlier is because
these are the experts -- they have very little information to work on.

Their training is incomplete and inadequate.
And yet... they are very, very bright...and working very very hard.

But notice: they are humble, and very cognizant of what they do and don't know.
This is actually why they are experts: they understand this.


----------



## ian

Deleted


----------



## HRC_64

The santa clara study and USC study were obviously embarrasments. The VA "study" looks to be similar. The point being, I would refrain from taking a strong "view" on studies that are garbage. If you cannot actually (ie technially/competently) sanity check a study, I'd also keep the rhetoric cool and read some other stuff.

I'd also not plan on writing any more studies or giving media interviews 





__





“I don’t want ‘crowd peer review’ or whatever you want to call it,” he said. “It’s just too burdensome and I’d rather have a more formal peer review process.” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science






statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu







> My favorite part was this quote from Neeraj Sood, a professor of public policy at the University of Southern California and one of the authors of the two controversial studies:


...


> Sood said he plans to eventually post a paper online, but only once it has been peer-reviewed and approved for publication.
> “I don’t want ‘crowd peer review’ or whatever you want to call it,” he said. “It’s just too burdensome and I’d rather have a more formal peer review process.”


...


> When I say this quote is my favorite part of Lee’s article, I don’t mean that I agree with Sood! Rather, it’s a great line because it reveals in distilled form a big problem with modern competitive science. *“It’s the best science can do.”*



LMAO

(I suggest you read the entire article posted in the link.)


----------



## HRC_64

The "best" bit...er, quote



> If that Santa Clara study was really “the best science can do,” then what would you call a version of the Santa Clara study that did the statistics right? The really best science can do? The really really best science can do?


----------



## ian

deleted


----------



## HRC_64

ian said:


> This post doesn’t make sense to me. What are you arguing?



You could see first hand that Covid-19 is NOT penumonia or ARDS based on the clinicians reflections after 30-60 days of treatment and clinical experience.

*"Covid-19 Does Not Lead to a “Typical” Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome"*
_AJRCCM Articles in Press. Published March 30, 2020 as 10.1164/rccm.202003-0817LE_


https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1164/rccm.202003-0817LE



SARS-2 CLINICALLY looks more like an issue with blood oxygenation capacity and transport mechanisms (hypoexemia/Hypoxia). various clotting factor issues that are apparently causing organ failure, stroke, etc.









Mysterious blood clots in COVID-19 patients have doctors alarmed


Some hospitals are putting all COVID-19 patients on low doses of blood thinners.




www.livescience.com






https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/22/coronavirus-blood-clots/










Faulty blood clotting mechanism may explain COVID-19 severity


An impaired blood clotting system may explain why some people with underlying conditions experience excessive bleeding and worse outcomes in COVID-19.




www.medicalnewstoday.com





That is to say, if it's not ARDS/SARS the virus name: SARS Cov-2 is very likely a poor name.









Why won’t the WHO call the coronavirus by its name, SARS-CoV-2?


The broader contention over how to label the new coronavirus underscores how disease names do far more than convey information—they draw battle lines.




qz.com


----------



## ian

I suggest you all read the following article. Till we meet again, in another thread.


----------



## Michi

Reasonable article about the various existing drugs that are under consideration for re-purposing for coronavirus:

Antibody therapy, antivirals and hydroxychloroquine: The coronavirus treatments being investigated and how long they might take


----------



## Nemo

Michi said:


> This is disappointing, though I can't say that I'm surprised:
> 
> Health minister now unsure if source code for COVID contact tracing app is safe to release
> 
> Sorry guys, but no source, no install.
> 
> And as usual, our government is doing its level best to F it up:
> 
> Australia's coronavirus tracing app's data storage contract goes offshore to Amazon
> 
> Keeping the key store in the same cloud as the data. Right. Putting the data into an off-shore data centre. Right.
> That's the sort of thing one learns not to do in "Computer Security 101".
> 
> Truly disappointing.


I think the app would probably help a lot with contact tracing but I've gotta say that I don't think I'll be installing it unless there are legislated privacy protections and the government gets these security concerns sorted.


----------



## Nemo

Bill13 said:


> I don't understand some peoples hostility (not including anyone here, we are just discussing things) to the possibility we may, again, may, of found a cheap treatment for many patients. His second trial has answered what was to me the biggest problem, the small number of patients in the first trial.
> 
> I just saw that Gilead's drug did not do well, which sucks. Hopefully they can figure something out. Data on Gilead's remdesivir show no benefit for coronavirus patients



I, for one would be extatic if hydroxychloroqine was a game changer for this disease and I await the results of RCTs with interest. If we can find a cheap treatment that significantly improves outcomes, it will mean that we don't need such severe physical distancing, so may be able to avoid some of the economic fallout.

It's not clear if remdesivir didn't help much because it's no good for CV19 or whether it is only useful if given earlier, before people get sick enough to fo to hospital.

The history of antivirals in respiratory viruses is not encouraging. The influenza antivirals such as oseltamivir and zanamivir have a pretty modest effect, despite the initial hype. Having said that, the metric being used was "days of symptoms", not "chance of death". It's possible that they may have a noticible effect on mortality with a more deadly strain of influenza.


----------



## HRC_64

This was in the press yesterday, but worth linking to the original article:

*Presenting Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Outcomes Among 5700 Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 in the New York City Area*








Clinical Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Outcomes Among Patients With COVID-19 Hospitalized in the NYC Area


This case series describes clinical characteristics, health services use, and outcomes of patients with confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cared for at 12 hospitals of a single health system in the New York City (NYC) area.




jamanetwork.com





A couple statistics jump out of here...the high fatality rate for ventilators is one of them. There were some disputes as to how the math was done on that data point in the comments/letters to the editor section.


----------



## Nemo

HRC_64 said:


> This was in the press yesterday, but worth linking to the original article:
> 
> *Presenting Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Outcomes Among 5700 Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 in the New York City Area*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Clinical Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Outcomes Among Patients With COVID-19 Hospitalized in the NYC Area
> 
> 
> This case series describes clinical characteristics, health services use, and outcomes of patients with confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cared for at 12 hospitals of a single health system in the New York City (NYC) area.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> jamanetwork.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A couple statistics jump out of here...the high fatality rate for ventilators is one of them. There were some disputes as to how the math was done on that data point in the comments/letters to the editor section.


Really interesting article which I hadn't seen- thanks.

I agree, the high mortality of ventilation is alarming, if borne out in the final anaysis. A number needed to treat of around 8! I wonder to what extent this is because by the time someone is sick enough to need ventilation, it is too late to save them and to what extent it is because the lung injury caused by ventilaton actually contributes to a worse outcome.

We have so much still to learn about this disease.


----------



## HRC_64

(continued from earlier) 

Its hard to link the letters to the editor, this so I will post one of the notes in full (sorry about that).
"Methodologic flaws that lead to overestimates of mortality from COVID-19" 


> Methodologic flaws that lead to overestimates of mortality from COVID-19
> David Ost, MD | MD Anderson Cancer Center
> 
> I read the report by Richardson and colleagues on the outcomes of COVID-19 patients in NewYork (1). The authors report that 88.1% of patients requiring mechanical ventilation died. This is potentially misleading and subject to misinterpretation.
> 
> The study enrolled 5,700 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during a 35-day period from March 1 to April 4, 2020. Outcome analysis on the 2,634 patients who died or were discharged was performed. The remaining 3,066 patients that were alive and remain in the hospitals were excluded from analysis. Mechanical ventilation was required in 320 (12.1%) of the 2,634 patients in the analysis, and death occurred in 282 (88.1%) of these patients. Among the 3,066 patients still alive, 831 (27.1%) required mechanical ventilation but, because they had not been discharged, they were excluded from the analysis.
> 
> Mechanical ventilation is a marker of severity of illness and many of the patients on mechanical ventilation probably had acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). ARDS carries a mortality of approximately 40%, with median time to death being 7 to 10 days (2, 3). Recovery is slow, with median hospital length of stay amongst survivors being 21 days for women and 25 days for men (4). Now, consider a patient with ARDS in this study admitted on March 14th who is destined to survive, and that he/she requires 21-25 days to recover. This patient will likely be discharged after April 4, excluding him/her from the analysis. Conversely, because death occurs earlier, a patient admitted at the same time who dies will be included in the analysis. This form of bias favoring inclusion of deaths while excluding survivors results in an overestimate of mortality.
> 
> How can we arrive at a more accurate estimate? We cannot assume all remaining inpatients currently alive will survive. Survival analysis techniques, such as the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox models can solve these problems. Why is proper methodology important? Respected public figures and journalists will quote the 88% mortality, and patients and their families will be frightened. The governor of New York has repeatedly cited a mortality greater than 80% amongst ventilated patients. However, that number is probably wrong. COVID-19 reported mortality in critically ill patients in other studies has varied, ranging from 22%-62%.5,6 The public will reasonably ask why is mortality excessively high in New York? Is quality of care poor? The answer is not that quality of care is poor, but rather that the data analysis is flawed.


----------



## Luftmensch

Barmoley said:


> It is very possible that more than 3% of people are/were infected, numbers are all over the place. It is possible and likely that the virus is a lot less deadly than first thought. Locking down economies is a very bad tool to combat this, we will see more of these viruses in the future and we need better mechanisms to deal with them than what was done this time.





Barmoley said:


> My biggest issue is that policies and actions are done based on panic and using models that use incomplete and dubious data at best.



The mortality rate is only _one characteristic_ of a disease. It paints an incomplete picture.

Which is worse? A disease with a 100% mortality rate that is impossible to transmit? Or a disease with a low mortality rate that is highly infectious? Therein lies the problem with COVID-19. It isn't as deadly as SARS, MERS or Ebola... but it is more infectious. Multiply a small case fatality rate by a large number of infections and you still have a serious problem. As we have seen, this is how it NY and Italy got swamped.

I'll agree that it is a terrible situation for policy makers to be in. The consequences for the economy are large. At home this is another widening of the inter-generational equity gap. Most people who are losing their jobs are in hospitality, retail and tourism. These sectors tend to have a 'young' workforce. It is a bitter pill for young people (who already cant afford property) to swallow. They are losing their jobs to 'protect' the old (who tend to own property and have secure, full-time jobs).

Despite this... I *do* think the precautionary principle is the correct strategy. It is a novel virus. It could have turned out to be much worse. Maybe it will turn out to be less of a danger. A compassionate leader will err on the side of protecting the community. If there are economic concerns, the compassionate would be to provide assistance and help people back on their feet now and when the disease is under control!


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> This is disappointing, though I can't say that I'm surprised:
> 
> Health minister now unsure if source code for COVID contact tracing app is safe to release
> 
> Sorry guys, but no source, no install.
> 
> And as usual, our government is doing its level best to F it up:
> 
> Australia's coronavirus tracing app's data storage contract goes offshore to Amazon
> 
> Keeping the key store in the same cloud as the data. Right. Putting the data into an off-shore data centre. Right.
> That's the sort of thing one learns not to do in "Computer Security 101".
> 
> Truly disappointing.





Bloody typical. Thanks a ton for the update. I hope they reconsider


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> Hmmm… All I can say to that is that it is really sad when a pandemic that is killing loads of people becomes a conduit for political point scoring. And I don't care which side is trying to score.
> 
> There are incidents on both sides that I find equally distasteful. To keep this discussion from degenerating, I'm not linking to any of them.



Super s****y

Our national cabinet is made up of state leaders. At least this represents a mix of political views.

I would go a step further and invite the opposition leader and shadow health minister to participate in the cabinet - just to show this is truly a non-partisan issue. Hopefully everybody would be mature enough to collaborate!


----------



## Michi

An overview (quite neutral, I think) of the Swedish strategy:

Sunny Stockholm eyes herd immunity, but was Sweden's relaxed coronavirus strategy worth it?

It's an expensive strategy in terms of fatalities. Compared to Norway, Finland, and Denmark, Sweden has 3-6 times the number of deaths per million inhabitants. Personally, I intensely dislike a strategy that pretty much declares people over 70 as being past their use-by date. (I realise that this is my personal opinion only.)

What I find interesting is that, apparently, Sweden has gone so far down that path that there is no turning back. They are committed to seeing this through now. We'll know in a few months how it worked out, and whether the price was worth paying compared to the improved (or not so improved) economy relative to Sweden's neighbours.

The comparison with Australia is also interesting, simply because we are at pretty much the other extreme end. Australia has 3 fatalities per million people, and our daily infection rates (nation-wide) are down in the teens. And, yes, the economic cost is huge. It will take Australia quite a few years to dig itself out of that hole.


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> I would go a step further and invite the opposition leader and shadow health minister to participate in the cabinet - just to show this is truly a non-partisan issue. Hopefully everybody would be mature enough to collaborate!


So far, when it comes to co-operation across the political spectrum, Australia has done a remarkably good job, in my opinion. By and large, I have not noticed any significant political bickering, which is nice. Maybe some of the Australian spirit is indeed still alive.


----------



## madelinez

Yeah I've been pleasantly surprised how well both sides of politics have put aside their differences and got on with the job.


----------



## Marek07

Michi said:


> This is disappointing, though I can't say that I'm surprised:
> 
> Health minister now unsure if source code for COVID contact tracing app is safe to release
> 
> Sorry guys, but no source, no install.
> 
> And as usual, our government is doing its level best to F it up:
> 
> Australia's coronavirus tracing app's data storage contract goes offshore to Amazon
> 
> Keeping the key store in the same cloud as the data. Right. Putting the data into an off-shore data centre. Right.
> That's the sort of thing one learns not to do in "Computer Security 101".
> 
> Truly disappointing.


Certainly a deal breaker for me. I was willing to load the app to help contact tracing despite my privacy concerns. But without fully releasing the code, it's not open code. Add to that storage by a foreign commercial entity?!? No thanks! As @Nemo said, some legislated protections wouldn't hurt either.


----------



## Bill13

Michi said:


> So far, when it comes to co-operation across the political spectrum, Australia has done a remarkably good job, in my opinion. By and large, I have not noticed any significant political bickering, which is nice. Maybe some of the Australian spirit is indeed still alive.


The same is holding true in Sweden, both major parties are backing the current policy. Not so much here.


----------



## madelinez

I'd love to know why the death rates differ so much between countries, Sweden is not doing as badly as you would expect. Age was a big factor for Italy but it really is all over the place, I've tried to factor in age/climate/wealth/living arrangements but can't see a pattern yet.


----------



## chinacats

I'm not so sure it's all that political here...we have a leader who regardless of party has lost his marbles...yesterday, suggested that perhaps inject disinfectants, uv light inside the body, etc...it's wasting time as he's having people 'look into it'...

I know this borders on political but party be damned, this is insanity and if a Democratic president said any of this ******** I'd call it out just as quickly. We've lost 50000 people here so far and need to leave medicine to medical professionals...brainstorming random stupid **** (dangerous ideas) doesn't help anyone...some dumbass will be injecting Clorox this week and there will be one (at least) more unnecessary death...makes me sick.


----------



## Matus

There seem to be a wide range of numbers from different studies as to how many asymptomatic cases are there and also what level of antibodies one has after being cured. Right now I am pretty skeptical that any meaningful herd immunity can be achieved. But we need more studies & data to be able to answer that. For now all that we really can do is social distancing and waiting for a vaccine.


----------



## M1k3

Wonder how @inferno is doing in Sweden.


----------



## M1k3




----------



## Barmoley

Matus said:


> There seem to be a wide range of numbers from different studies as to how many asymptomatic cases are there and also what level of antibodies one has after being cured. Right now I am pretty skeptical that any meaningful herd immunity can be achieved. But we need more studies & data to be able to answer that. For now all that we really can do is social distancing and waiting for a vaccine.


Let's hope you are wrong and meaningful heard immunity can be achieved at some point, it is not realistic to be on lock down until a vaccine that is a year or so out. I don't think any economy will be able to deal with this. Always a hope that the virus just dies out during summer, but there are opinions that this won't happen.


----------



## Bill13

Don't know WTH was up about disinfectants but the UV light inside the body is real. Will it work? Let's hope so.









Aytu BioScience Signs Exclusive Global License with Cedars-Sinai for Potential Coronavirus Treatment


Cedars-Sinai-Developed ‘Healight' Medical Device Platform Technology Being Studied as a Potential First-in-Class COVID-19 Treatment...




apnews.com





A very short video


----------



## madelinez

I truly hope everyone comes out of this alive, but no, UV light inside of the body will not work. UV comes at the end of the visible light spectrum and the segment of UV that is effective at killing germs (viruses, bacteria) is ionizing radiation. Halfway through the UV spectrum these rays contain enough energy to split molecules, luckily your skin does a great job at blocking them. As we go higher into the spectrum (smaller) the rays are small enough to pass through the skin (gamma rays) and cause damage regardless.

Germs (bacteria and viruses) cannot survive ionizing radiation (they don't have an outer layer of dead skin to protect them), that's why we use it to disinfect equipment in industrial settings. Ionizing radiation will cause cancer slowly in humans (externally by the sun we call this skin cancer), if we orally consume a large source of ionizing radiation then this is far worse and will almost certainly lead to death.

In the past many people were afraid of microwaves (mobile/tv/radio waves) because they mistook them for ionizing radiation. As you can see in the below diagram, ionizing radiation begins at a far higher frequency, beyond visible light.

Relying on the ionizing properties of electromagnetic waves is useful for sterilization (at the UV range), exposing yourself internally will significantly increase the risk of cancer.


----------



## chinacats

As to UV light, color me skeptical mainly because by the time people are really sick it's not the virus but the immune response that's killing people.

I do hope someone finds something that works but random thought streaming is dangerous and not particularly helpful. Bigger problem is getting people's hopes up rather than just being realistic. If Trump could keep his mouth shut and nod while the scientists give an actual update his numbers would improve and people would be much less freaked out by all this. Like Cuomo (or any number of D or R governors) or not his pressers have instilled confidence that governing is productive (whether it truly is or not remains to be seen).

Only true heroes in my mind are the local health officials who shut down the Bay area when people thought they were crazy. The local curve there proves success.

At this point I believe best hope is in the vaccine. They've been injecting people since mid March w/ at least one vaccine...should know by now that it's safe but efficacy could take a bit...my hope is in quick but thorough trials...w FDA helping guide the process.

Social distancing, good hygiene and patience still remain most important factors in moving past this situation. Understandably patience is in the shortest supply.

As an aside, not sure where you all live but here (Portland Maine) most people are using facial coverings. I've traveled a bit locally for exercise and as soon as i leave town i see zero masks (unless i look in a mirror) and people going about their days w almost no social distancing.


----------



## Bill13

Skepticism is warranted and I would not of even bothered posting it except for quotes like this from the article: “Our team has shown that administering a specific spectrum of UV-A light can eradicate viruses in infected human cells (including coronavirus) and bacteria in the area while preserving healthy cells,” stated Dr. Pimentel of Cedars-Sinai. Ali Rezaie, MD,

The statement does not say Covid 19 so we will see. However Dr Pimental is a KOL and head of a research lab named after himself, he is not going to risk his career unless he thinks it has a good chance of being effective.




__





Pimentel Research Lab | Cedars-Sinai


Find out about the research work that the Pimentel Laboratory is doing to find and treat Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS), which affects more than 10% of the population in the United States and worldwide.




www.cedars-sinai.org


----------



## ian

chinacats said:


> As an aside, not sure where you all live but here (Portland Maine) most people are using facial coverings. I've traveled a bit locally for exercise and as soon as i leave town i see zero masks (unless i look in a mirror) and people going about their days w almost no social distancing.



It's hit and miss here. I'd say more than 85% of people are wearing masks, but there are some people (often 20somethings) who seem unaware that there's even a pandemic. Then again, I'm in a liberal neighborhood in Boston.


----------



## madelinez

Edit: Delete


----------



## chinacats

Bill13 said:


> Skepticism is warranted and I would not of even bothered posting it except for quotes like this from the article: “Our team has shown that administering a specific spectrum of UV-A light can eradicate viruses in infected human cells (including coronavirus) and bacteria in the area while preserving healthy cells,” stated Dr. Pimentel of Cedars-Sinai. Ali Rezaie, MD,
> 
> The statement does not say Covid 19 so we will see. However Dr Pimental is a KOL and head of a research lab named after himself, he is not going to risk his career unless he thinks it has a good chance of being effective.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Pimentel Research Lab | Cedars-Sinai
> 
> 
> Find out about the research work that the Pimentel Laboratory is doing to find and treat Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS), which affects more than 10% of the population in the United States and worldwide.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cedars-sinai.org




Strange, his fos is gut microbiome as it relates to IBS. I couldn't find any info re covid19 or uv light at link provided? I'm sure he's a smart guy but I'd be more impressed if he specialized in infectious disease. Link to study?


----------



## Bill13

chinacats said:


> Strange, his fos is gut microbiome as it telates to IBS. I couldn't find any info re covid19 or uv light at link provided? I'm sure he's a smart guy but I'd be more impressed if he specialized in infectious disease.


Look at my post at 12:25. I would be happier too if his specialty was in ID. But if it works I'll get over it.

These Dr's at the top of their professions all know each other, especially if they are at the same hospital. I can guarantee you he is not stepping out on a limb here without discussing this with the department head of ID.

The other Dr is not ID either but also is a heavy hitter: Ali Rezai, MD | School of Medicine | West Virginia University

I just don't see them coming out with this statement if they did not believe it's going to work for a lot of cases. It's just too much risk when they could of just kept their mouths shut. It's not like we are talking about Pres. Trump.


----------



## HRC_64

madelinez said:


> I truly hope everyone comes out of this alive, but no, UV light inside of the body will not work. UV comes at the end of the visible light spectrum and the segment of UV that is effective at killing germs (viruses, bacteria) is ionizing radiation.



IT is well know that bio/chem warfare agents degrade over time due to environmental exposure. Various tests were reported by US biowarfare lab at Fr. Dietrich Mayrlyand yesterday. AFAIK These included SUNLIGHT but excluded any discussion of UV-C, since the latter is not natural component of sunlight on earth surface or normal occuring environmental degradation.

Trump basically said: you guys are having good results with virus retardation tests using humidity, sunlight and various basic strategies, you should make sure to look into environmental, radiological and chemotherapy options for Covid-19.

Its routine to expose the body to the whole range of Visible, UV, and Ionizing radiation for medical purposes.








Radiation therapy - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org












Light therapy - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org












Dental curing light - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





Natually occurring sun/UV light in particular is fundamental to good health, see EG


> When your skin is exposed to sunlight, it makes *vitamin D* from cholesterol. The sun's *ultraviolet* B (*UVB*) *rays* hit cholesterol in the skin cells, providing the energy for *vitamin D* synthesis to occur.











Treatment of vitamin D deficiency with UV light in patients with malabsorption syndromes: a case series


Cystic fibrosis (CF) and short bowel syndrome (SBS) patients are unable to absorb vitamin D from the diet and thus are frequently found to be severely vitamin D deficient. We evaluated whether a commercial portable ultraviolet (UV) indoor tanning lamp ...




www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


----------



## inferno

M1k3 said:


> Wonder how @inferno is doing in Sweden.



i can confirm with high confidence that i have not died from ARS(e)-19 or whatever its called yet!


----------



## HRC_64

(continued)
Clinical dis-infection is trying to remove 100% of viable virus particles from the envinrment. Whereas degrading the virus (shortening its viable half-life) is fundamentally different.

If you took the perspective of a medical therapy, Many things are useful treatments that are shor tof outright cures. HIV/Aids is a classic example where "retardation" of the virus is possible but "elimination " of the virus is condsiderd impossible.

This is more a level of abstraction approach issue than a real issue, however.


----------



## Matus

The UV light is an absolute nonsense and borders a hoax. UV light will indeed kill pretty much anything with sufficient intensity. As any other wavelength this short, it is absorbed in organic tissue VERY quickly. There is no way to get it inside the body. And should you manage that, you would burn the tissue much faster than the virus or bacteria. Remember - our skin can handle orders of magnitude higher radiation dose in UVB and UVC light. The dose that just merely browns your skin in summer would cause sever damage on internal organs. The dose to kill the virus within any relevant time would have to me even higher as apparently the virus survives outdoor just fine.


----------



## Matus

Barmoley said:


> Let's hope you are wrong and meaningful heard immunity can be achieved at some point, it is not realistic to be on lock down until a vaccine that is a year or so out. I don't think any economy will be able to deal with this. Always a hope that the virus just dies out during summer, but there are opinions that this won't happen.



I hope that I am wrong too. But there were already people tested after they recovered and had basically zero antibodies plus there have been already cases people getting infected twice. No, we will not need a long term lockdown (which is not sustainable in any corner of the world), but we will be living with social distancing and no large group events for months to come. I would not want be be a professional football player right now.


----------



## chinacats

I'm just pissed about not seeing live music...i social distance for fun ..


----------



## ian

Social distancing = not a big deal for me. School closures = a fate nearing death.


----------



## ian

HRC_64 said:


> Trump basically said: you guys are having good results with virus retardation tests using humidity, sunlight and various basic strategies, you should make sure to look into environmental, radiological and chemotherapy options for Covid-19.



That is a generous interpretation...

I’d feel ok about him saying it like that if the medical community seemed to agree that these were plausible avenues for research. But other than this one press release about Healight, is there anything else?

Relatedly, I heard a study recently that indicated that Covid-19 doesn’t fare well when exposed to nuclear explosions. Maybe that’s a cure that could combine both heat, light and radiation? I hear Trump actually has his finger on the cure, too!


----------



## Barmoley

Matus said:


> I hope that I am wrong too. But there were already people tested after they recovered and had basically zero antibodies plus there have been already cases people getting infected twice. No, we will not need a long term lockdown (which is not sustainable in any corner of the world), but we will be living with social distancing and no large group events for months to come. I would not want be be a professional football player right now.


Absolutely agree that social distancing of one type or another will continue for a while. Current antibody tests are unfortunately not very good, lots of false positives and negatives. If you test enough people the errors matter less, but we are not there yet. In most cases when people recover from viruses or bacteria the immune system is better equipped to deal with these pathogens in the future. Sometimes people get reinfected with less severe symptoms or like with colds and flu the virus mutates so easily that we get sick every year. There is no real reason to think that this virus is so different from the other ones that infect humans to think that we will not build some sort of immunity. Some people will get reinfected, but this will most likely be rare. We might have to deal with this thing every year, like the flu, but it is premature to think this virus is so different from the rest that it will not follow the "normal" course of events. After all no vaccine can be created if our immune system doesn't produce antibodies for this virus or if these antibodies don't protect us from getting infected again for some reasonable length of time.


----------



## inferno

i see there has been some talk about sweden the last pages. I have listened to the daily press meeting every day now for a month or 2.

I will try to answer some of the questions people seem to have.

most of the people that have died in sweden has been very old people (80-90y/o and such) and people with multiple other diseases.
the reason for this is because the corona got in to the nursing homes for the senior citizens. and then it was basically game over for those people.
and the reason it got inside there was that they were only testing obviously sick people to begin with. no testing of asymptomatic people. and this is still not happening. 

as you all know sweden has simply chosen the path of "do nothing".
*why didn't sweden shut everything down and locked everyone up like norway and denmark did? *

because 1: *they would have had to rewrite the fukn constitution* (grundlagen) *and that can only happen over a period of 2 or 3 mandate periods* (8-12 years before this can happen). basically you cannot prevent people going outside by law even if they wanted. but in 8 years or so they possibly could  they can only recommend/suggest that people stay at home.

and 2: it would be financial suicide to shut everything down. sweden simply couldn't afford it. (sure, they didn't say this on the radio, but we all know it).
it wasn't gonna happen, it wasn't ever on the table. and never will be.
(but i think they cobbled up some some new draconian "emergency laws" 2 months back. giving them power to do whatever they feel like more or less)

and 3: they knew goddamn well we were all going to get it sooner or later anyway so why even bother. the virus is gonna be around for years and years.

and if i was the saddam hussein of sweden  i would also do nothing, and see what happens. do nothing has been a quite successful strategy for me.
panic and shitting your pants as soon as something out of the ordinary happens is usually not a good solution.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

i heard yesterday that 25-30% of all people in the stockholm region will have ARS19 by may1. there is 2 million people around here. 
and that the ratio of people getting sick from ARS19, and simply just having it is probably 80:1 or so.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

now i see many people saying that many people have died here per capita. and yes it is so. the very very old and very sick. 
but if you look at belgium that shut down their country and has a population similar to sweden (11million) they have 6600 dead, and sweden 2150.
so how useful was that shutdown now again? minus 3x it looks like..

----------------------------------

norway chose to shut everything down. this is the country most similar to sweden. i have lived in norway for almost 10 years and i always felt it would be the other way around with lockdowns and similar, because in norway you can be truly free to do whatever the f you want. didn't see that one coming to be honest. i've always regarded sweden as "stasi light". and norway as a place where no gov institutions controls you. you have a bigger personal responsibility for your life in norway, you have to do everything yourself, nothing is force fed down your throat, unlike sweden. 

so norway has 200 dead and population of 5-6 million. buut they are completely fukd economically. 
360000 furloughed
286000 unemployed (and in norway the only people that are unemplyed are the ones that dont want to work)

i'm heard on the news today that the financial situation there is so bad its even worse than during WW2... it has never been this bad, ever.

so was it worth it???

translate this. this is from the state radio in norway.








BNP falt med 14 prosent siste halvdel av mars


I løpet av to uker i mars stoppet økonomien i Norge fullstendig opp. En bråstopp uten noen historiske paralleller, slår Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB) fast.




www.nrk.no












Slik rammer koronaviruset norsk økonomi


Se tall og grafikk på hvordan norsk økonomi og arbeidsliv er rammet av koronasituasjonen.




www.nrk.no


----------



## inferno

i have been socially distancing myself since 1999. do i win some price now?


----------



## M1k3

Are you Finnish? (See Kippington's earlier post regarding Finland)


----------



## inferno

M1k3 said:


> Are you Finnish? (See Kippington's earlier post regarding Finland)



no. not that i'm aware of at least.

the finns are probably black belt distancers though. i get that feeling. and i'm like yellow belt.


----------



## HRC_64

Matus said:


> The UV light is an absolute nonsense and borders a hoax.



The discussion presented by the US Military was outside the scope of your comment.



> _VX_ is considered an _area_ denial _weapon_ due to these physical and biochemical characteristics.



VX nerve agent has long lasting environmental PERSISTANCE which makes it particularly dangerous.

Likewise, there are aspects of COVID_19 including PERSISTANCE which are particularly problematic: it has shown in studies to have significant environmental persistance as well as high levels of (droplet and aersols) persistance relating to H2H transmission.

US Military tested (under rare scientific conditions) the PERSISTANCE of Covid-19 in the environment for the same reason it tests CX nerve gas an other agents like anthrax, etc -- thse things last on various surfaces and aeroslized environments,.

Yesterday, the US military reported back what the environmental degradation profile was. This is basic science for Bio/Chem warfare and was reported as such.

SUNLIGHT it turns out is massively effective at reducing enviornmetnal PERSISTANCE of virus viability. That is to say, for environmental deconamination sunlight is a very viable (although not perfect, eg shaows, etc) STRATEGY of MITIGATION.

AREA AND ACTIVITY DENIAL contraints of COVID-19 can--in theory-- be reduced accordinly. Areas that would be dangrerous for long periods of time indoors will be much less dangerous, much sooner outdoors in bright SUNLIGHT (JUST ONE EXAMPLE).

The "medical" remarks were offhand commets, the human response to biowarfare agents is another area of US military expertise but its handled by a differnt team, and/or by medical doctors and was outside the scope of the Military presentation yesterday. This was also openly discussed.


----------



## HRC_64

Here's a study talking about Virus Transfer risk in "Human Built Environments"








2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic: Built Environment Considerations To Reduce Transmission


With the rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that results in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), corporate entities, federal, state, county, and city governments, universities, school districts, places of worship, prisons, health care facilities...




msystems.asm.org






> *COVID-19 and the impact of the BE in transmission.*
> The built environment (BE) is the collection of environments that humans have constructed, including buildings, cars, roads, public transport, and other human-built spaces (22). Since most humans spend >90% of their daily lives inside the BE, it is essential to understand the potential transmission dynamics of COVID-19 within the BE ecosystem and the human behavior, spatial dynamics, and building operational factors that potentially promote and mitigate the spread and transmission of COVID-19.


Likewise, the broader context of "area deniability" is relevant to indoors and outdoor settings during a pandemic with lockdowns.


> BEs serve as potential transmission vectors for the spread of COVID-19 by inducing close interactions between individuals, by containing fomites (objects or materials that are likely to carry infectious diseases), and through viral exchange and transfer through the air (23, 24).


 We are denied use of various economic assets because of environmental persistacne and this is an area we need to study to learn how to safely relax those contraints.


----------



## Bill13

Lighthearted fun:


----------



## Bill13

Sounds like a good plan to me.









Palmer buys 32,900,000 doses of Hydroxychloroquine for Australians


True to his word, Clive Palmers’ Palmer Foundation has bought over 32,900,000 doses of hydroxychloroquine. Millions of doses of the drug have already




 www.miragenews.com





"On the 2 April 2020, Australia’s Minister for Health, Greg Hunt announced hydroxychloroquine would be made available if doctors wish to use it to treat COVID-19 patients who are in Australian hospitals. Since that time, Australia’s death rate from COVID-19 has been the lowest in the world and the curve has flattened. Mr Hunt also congratulated Mr Palmer for the steps he was then taking to acquire hydroxychloroquine internationally, paying for the effort with his own money."


----------



## Bert2368

HRC_64 said:


> Trump basically said: you guys are having good results with virus retardation tests using humidity, sunlight and various basic strategies, you should make sure to look into environmental, radiological and chemotherapy options for Covid-19.



No.

Paraphrasing it and making excuses won't make me forget what I heard.

I can speak and write English at a functional level and I watched president Trump maundering about UV light and disinfectants. What our president said and WHERE/WHEN HE SAID IT made me want to tear my hair out.

I have worked near significant sources of ionizing radiation (synchrotron radiation, vacuum ultraviolet, X-rays and charged particle beams as well as industrial Neutron and gamma sources). I have worn film badges at work. My father had a PhD in high energy physics.

Chemistry is one of my hobbies. I have two siblings in medical fields. I got As in science.

I've got a pretty good idea of which chemical and radiation exposures applied how can kill which organisms and via what mechanisms.

I may know more and be able to infer more than an average person- But I knew better than Trump by 7th grade as far as the disinfectants, 9th grade on the UV. And I know that a boss should ask questions, do his speculating, gather knowledge and decide on a plan of attack BEFORE addressing the rank and file, rather than flailingly and disjointedly during an address.


----------



## Nemo

Barmoley said:


> After all no vaccine can be created if our immune system doesn't produce antibodies for this virus or if these antibodies don't protect us from getting infected again for some reasonable length of time.


The immune system is complex and poorly understood. We assume that seroconversion (development of antibodies) is associated with immunity because this is what has happened with many vaccines (and indeed with many diseases). But there are likely whole layers of celluluar and cytokine immunity going on as well. Vaccines for respiratory viruses ('flu) tend to be less protective (and short lived), maybe because the antibodies that hang around (IgG) don't get into the airways. But it's almost certainly much more complex than that.


----------



## Marek07

inferno said:


> i can confirm with high confidence that i have not died from ARS(e)-19 or whatever its called yet!


So you say... How do we know this isn't just fake news?


----------



## Marek07

Finland has just announced that they've closed their borders.

So now, no one can cross the finish line!



(Sorry)


----------



## inferno

Marek07 said:


> So you say... How do we know this isn't just fake news?


i guess we have to launch a peer reviewed study of a scientific finding. 

this whole thing is so overblown i'm almost shitting my pants.


----------



## HRC_64

Nemo said:


> The immune system is complex and poorly understood. ...But it's almost certainly much more complex than that.



Yeah, check this out...


> Test results in recent days — after the 14-day isolation period — led the Navy to “reevaluate our assessment of how the virus can remain active in an asymptomatic host,”











Sailors keep testing positive on aircraft carrier, despite 2-week isolation


The move potentially delays the ship’s departure amid new questions about the spread of Covid-19.




www.politico.com





These people are _either_ getting re-infected _or_ the virus is "hiding out" somewhere. UGH.


----------



## inferno

Marek07 said:


> Finland has just announced that they've closed their borders.
> 
> So now, no one can cross the finish line!
> 
> 
> 
> (Sorry)



not from russia at least. but russia shut down the airlines in january or so. or so i've heard


----------



## rob

Michi said:


> This is disappointing, though I can't say that I'm surprised:
> 
> Health minister now unsure if source code for COVID contact tracing app is safe to release
> 
> Sorry guys, but no source, no install.
> 
> And as usual, our government is doing its level best to F it up:
> 
> Australia's coronavirus tracing app's data storage contract goes offshore to Amazon
> 
> Keeping the key store in the same cloud as the data. Right. Putting the data into an off-shore data centre. Right.
> That's the sort of thing one learns not to do in "Computer Security 101".
> 
> Truly disappointing.


Very disappointing,


----------



## AT5760

@HRC_64 isn’t there a 3rd option? The tests are terribly inaccurate.

This whole thing is a mess. False information abounds, no one knows what is true. It’s almost as though bioscience doesn’t move at the same speed as our instantaneous news cycle...


----------



## inferno

AT5760 said:


> @HRC_64 isn’t there a 3rd option? The tests are terribly inaccurate.
> 
> This whole thing is a mess. False information abounds, no one knows what is true. It’s almost as though bioscience doesn’t move at the same speed as our instantaneous news cycle...



bioscience moving speed? well they have like 400-1000 more of these viruses should you want them (or if they should be "required" somewhere). and have had for a long time now. i'm holding out for the ars-E-bola-21 release. probably aint gonna kill anyone at all almost maybe.


----------



## Nemo

HRC_64 said:


> Yeah, check this out...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sailors keep testing positive on aircraft carrier, despite 2-week isolation
> 
> 
> The move potentially delays the ship’s departure amid new questions about the spread of Covid-19.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.politico.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> These people are _either_ getting re-infected _or_ the virus is "hiding out" somewhere. UGH.


From the article, it's not clear to me whether the problem is:
1) Non infected people are being quarantined for 14 days and some get sick or test positive after that quarantine period, or,
2) People who tested positive were quarantined for 14 days. They tested negative but later tested positive.

Option 1 is expected: The incubation period is said to be 14 days or less in 99.9% of poeple . This still means that 1 in 1000 will have a longer incubation period.

Option 2 is also expected: False negatives are very common in the currently available tests.


----------



## Bert2368

inferno said:


> they have like 400-1000 more of these viruses should you want them (or if they should be "required" somewhere). and have had for a long time now. i'm holding out for the ars-E-bola-21 release.



Personally, I'm most worried about Anthrax Leprosy π. Eris help us if that one gets out.


----------



## HRC_64

AT5760 said:


> @HRC_64 isn’t there a 3rd option? The tests are terribly inaccurate.



They are sensitive (will pick up results) and specific (ID correctly), provided there is actual DNA/RNA on the swab. You might have a bunch of negative swabs for various reasons. 

Two failure modes for false negative can be compared:
1) sample error - you sample location X when virus is in location Y, etc
2) technical error - your swab is correct, but the test is wrecked in the lab

In the earlier not, the "virus is hiding" conveys the sample error. you test with swab in location x positive and then you retest in location x and the swab tests negative...virus is hiding in location Y and you didn't test there.

In your formulation, "tests are terribly inaccurate" could be read as high probability of "technical error" = "innacurate test" since you DO the testing correcly and should have a positive swab but your swab result from the las is wrong ("negative") despite putting a positive swab in the mail/machine etc.

However, there are now #4 of case reports in CHINA, JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, and USA/GUAM. 

These cannot AFAIK be linked to single failure mode very easily. As more indepenent events start to pile up, a common "stochastic error" is less teneble. And the "technical error" (human/design mistake) gets less likely because each country has its own labs/test team/test design engieneer etc.

here are the press reports if anyone wants to folow up.









Recovered, almost: China's early patients unable to shed coronavirus


Dressed in a hazmat suit, two masks and a face shield, Du Mingjun knocked on the mahogany door of a flat in a suburban district of Wuhan on a recent morning.




www.reuters.com












Questions raised over COVID-19 reinfection after Japanese woman develops illness again


Yes you can “catch it” again if the virus is merely dormant and you haven’t developed antibodies, but virologists say it’s still too soon to say how it works.




www.japantimes.co.jp




*Coronavirus May ‘Reactivate’ in Cured Patients, Korean CDC Says*
<Bloomberg - Are you a robot?>


----------



## Michi

inferno said:


> i see there has been some talk about sweden the last pages. I have listened to the daily press meeting every day now for a month or 2.
> 
> I will try to answer some of the questions people seem to have.


Thank your for the insights from a local! I wasn't aware of the constitutional issue regarding restricting people's movements. I guess that explains a lot.

As to Belgium, be careful with those numbers. I noticed the same thing, that Belgium seemed to be doing so much worse than its neighbours. So I asked two Belgian friends of mine. They told me that the situation is no different in Belgium than elsewhere. It's just that Belgium is doing the counting differently:

Why Belgium's Death Rate Is So High: It Counts Lots Of Suspected COVID-19 Cases

I guess this shows that the worldometer figures need to be taken with a grain of salt. Different countries do things differently.

I also suspect that some of the numbers are grossly inaccurate. For example, India, Bangladesh, and Indonesia's numbers seem way too low, considering their population sizes and high-density living conditions. I strongly suspect that the actual numbers there are far larger than this.


----------



## chinacats

HRC_64 said:


> They are sensitive (will pick up results) and specific (ID correctly), provided there is actual DNA/RNA on the swab. You might have a bunch of negative swabs for various reasons.
> 
> Two failure modes for false negative can be compared:
> 1) sample error - you sample location X when virus is in location Y, etc
> 2) technical error - your swab is correct, but the test is wrecked in the lab
> 
> In the earlier not, the "virus is hiding" conveys the sample error. you test with swab in location x positive and then you retest in location x and the swab tests negative...virus is hiding in location Y and you didn't test there.
> 
> In your formulation, "tests are terribly inaccurate" could be read as high probability of "technical error" = "innacurate test" since you DO the testing correcly and should have a positive swab but your swab result from the las is wrong ("negative") despite putting a positive swab in the mail/machine etc.
> 
> However, there are now #4 of case reports in CHINA, JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, and USA/GUAM.
> 
> These cannot AFAIK be linked to single failure mode very easily. As more indepenent events start to pile up, a common "stochastic error" is less teneble. And the "technical error" (human/design mistake) gets less likely because each country has its own labs/test team/test design engieneer etc.
> 
> here are the press reports if anyone wants to folow up.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Recovered, almost: China's early patients unable to shed coronavirus
> 
> 
> Dressed in a hazmat suit, two masks and a face shield, Du Mingjun knocked on the mahogany door of a flat in a suburban district of Wuhan on a recent morning.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Questions raised over COVID-19 reinfection after Japanese woman develops illness again
> 
> 
> Yes you can “catch it” again if the virus is merely dormant and you haven’t developed antibodies, but virologists say it’s still too soon to say how it works.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.japantimes.co.jp
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Coronavirus May ‘Reactivate’ in Cured Patients, Korean CDC Says*
> <Bloomberg - Are you a robot?>



As to the tests, the other possibility for false negative is remnant rna fragments...can't be cultured in a lab therefore not contagious.


----------



## sudsy9977

I’m not nearly as smart as you guys but r we saying I SHOULDN’T inject Lysol into my veins? All joking aside,the problem is the news actually has to tell people to not do that. I would have let it slide and let natural selection take its place. People r so dumb. 
I don’t know much about this virus but my grandmother is in a nursing home in NJ and tested positive. She didn’t really have any symptoms and seems to be in the clear so I’m happy. Ryan


----------



## Bill13

Bill13 said:


> Don't know WTH was up about disinfectants but the UV light inside the body is real. Will it work? Let's hope so.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Aytu BioScience Signs Exclusive Global License with Cedars-Sinai for Potential Coronavirus Treatment
> 
> 
> Cedars-Sinai-Developed ‘Healight' Medical Device Platform Technology Being Studied as a Potential First-in-Class COVID-19 Treatment...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> apnews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A very short video




Well this is ultra creepy a la 1984. Disappointed but not surprised. Google, YouTube, Twitter and Facebook have strong political views that shape their policies. YouTube has also said they will ban any videos that disagree with the WHO guidelines. I know they are not the government so they have the right to do so.
It still creeps me out, and their policies will be a valuable tool in the upcoming presidential race, similar to what the IRS accomplished recently with Lois Lerner. Suppress the views of those you disagree with, but don't worry, it's for the greater good. Right. IRS Apologizes For Aggressive Scrutiny Of Conservative Groups


----------



## ian

Bill13 said:


> Well this is ultra creepy a la 1984. Disappointed but not surprised. Google, YouTube, Twitter and Facebook have strong political views that shape their policies. YouTube has also said they will ban any videos that disagree with the WHO guidelines. I know they are not the government so they have the right to do so.
> It still creeps me out, and their policies will be a valuable tool in the upcoming presidential race, similar to what the IRS accomplished recently with Lois Lerner. Suppress the views of those you disagree with, but don't worry, it's for the greater good. Right. IRS Apologizes For Aggressive Scrutiny Of Conservative Groups



That's interesting. From here:

_"Speaking on CNN’s Reliable Sources, Wojcicki said that the Google-owned video streaming platform would be “removing information that is problematic”.

She told host Brian Stelter that this would include “anything that is medically unsubstantiated”.

“So people saying ‘take vitamin C; take turmeric, we’ll cure you’, those are the examples of things that would be a violation of our policy,” she said.

“Anything that would go against World Health Organisation recommendations would be a violation of our policy.”_

Not sure exactly what I think about all this. The first amendment is important, but we've been seeing more and more the dangers posed by the easy spread of disinformation on these platforms. I'm generally in favor of banning content that can be proven false and misleading. It's just too dangerous.

Disinformation seems especially important to combat during a pandemic. On the other hand, the WHO guidelines haven't been completely stellar so far, so using them as a benchmark is arguable. Not sure where the video you linked fits on the scale from

Wear face masks -------------------------------------------------------> Inject yourself with disinfectant


----------



## Michi

I think it's OK. We actually might have the problem licked.








"Gefährlich und idiotisch"


Desinfektionsmittel-Injektionen gegen das Coronavirus? Die Fachwelt reagierte bestürzt auf Donald Trumps Vorschlag. Er flüchtete sich in eine besonders lahme Ausrede.




www.spiegel.de


----------



## WildBoar

sudsy9977 said:


> I’m not nearly as smart as you guys but r we saying I SHOULDN’T inject Lysol into my veins? All joking aside,the problem is the news actually has to tell people to not do that. I would have let it slide and let natural selection take its place. People r so dumb.
> I don’t know much about this virus but my grandmother is in a nursing home in NJ and tested positive. She didn’t really have any symptoms and seems to be in the clear so I’m happy. Ryan


Ryan, I hope she continues to be resistant to the effects. My last remaining great aunt died from the virus last week (she lived in a nursing home in NJ).


----------



## M1k3

1st Amendment doesn't apply to private entities platforms, no matter your opinion on it or political leaning.


----------



## ian

Don’t think anyone’s arguing it’s illegal. But one could argue that since those sites have become so powerful and universal, it's against the spirit of the first amendment. I’m not arguing that though.


----------



## M1k3

Meh, better Google block advice that may be untrue instead of the CEO spouting about injecting disinfectant.


----------



## Bert2368

M1k3 said:


> 1st Amendment doesn't apply to private entities platforms, no matter your opinion on it or political leaning.





Another case of our technology moving rather faster than our social and legal systems. Been happening faster and faster lately (or maybe I'm getting older and slowing down). 

From the quantity of nonsensical crap and outright falsehoods, historical revision & etc. I can see on YouTube, it's going to be a tough job for them to winnow out bad medical advice. 

I have this fantasy of people being allowed to post anything they want on line- With their full contact information, real name, a current accurate mug shot and physical address automatically attached. Kind of like meatspace.


----------



## ian

M1k3 said:


> Meh, better Google block advice that may be untrue instead of the CEO spouting about injecting disinfectant.



Yea I basically agree with that. The questions is what’s untrue when recommendations are constantly changing.


----------



## Bill13

It's always refreshing when media figures promote a behavior (social isolation after infection) on their shows but then don't actually follow it.









Man who confronted Chris Cuomo says the host was like a 'boiling pot'


David Whelan claimed that the anchor berated him as he asked Cuomo why he was not self-quarantining on Easter Sunday.




www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## ian

Bert2368 said:


> Another case of our technology moving rather faster than our social and legal systems. Been happening faster and faster lately (or maybe I'm getting older and slowing down).
> 
> From the quantity of nonsensical crap and outright falsehoods, historical revision & etc. I can see on YouTube, it's going to be a tough job for them to winnow out bad medical advice.
> 
> I have this fantasy of people being allowed to post anything they want on line- With their full contact information, real name, a current accurate mug shot and physical address automatically attached. Kind of like meatspace.




Seriously. Along with a conflict of interest statement, and a link to their tax returns.


----------



## M1k3

That's the thing. They aren't in the medical advice field, they aren't there to provide medical advice or a platform for it. They are for entertainment. It's easier to say "if it's not recommended by WHO, remove it. Don't have the man-hours to check to fact check random unknown sites that have been cited".

Check your local and national health departments for medical information, not YouTube.


----------



## ian

Bill13 said:


> It's always refreshing when media figures promote a behavior (social isolation after infection) on their shows but then don't actually follow it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Man who confronted Chris Cuomo says the host was like a 'boiling pot'
> 
> 
> David Whelan claimed that the anchor berated him as he asked Cuomo why he was not self-quarantining on Easter Sunday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailymail.co.uk



I don’t know anything about this particular case, but I’d rather this combination than practicing social isolation while publicly supporting the protests against it.


----------



## Barmoley

Not illegal, and they can do what they want, but they should be held to a higher standard. So many people now get their news from Facebook, Google, etc. Like newspapers and TV these platforms can easily manipulate what we see and read just by blocking some.content and promoting other. It would be so easy and effective. They can form public opinion very easily, they already do. Disturbing to say the least and definitely something to think about. WHO and CDC made many mistakes during this pandemic, they are just people, so it is understandable, so some scrutiny doesn't hurt. Won't be possible if any alternative information is not allowed to go through. On the other hand there is already so much crap info there that just finding good info is nearly impossible. We live in a crazy world, that's for sure.


----------



## ian

M1k3 said:


> That's the thing. They aren't in the medical advice field, they aren't there to provide medical advice or a platform for it. They are for entertainment. It's easier to say "if it's not recommended by WHO, remove it. Don't have the man-hours to check to fact check random unknown sites that have been sited".
> 
> Check your local and national health departments for medical information, not YouTube.



If Youtube was just for cat videos, I would agree with that. But it’s so much bigger than that now. It’s even used as a vehicle for disseminating information within the scientific community. E.g. here’s me. So, restricting the content to science endorsed by a particular body isn’t a good general strategy. Again, though, I’m not saying it isn’t warranted in this case, just that one has to think carefully about what lines to draw.


----------



## M1k3

I'm not defending Google/YouTube, but, at the end of the day, whether they do something or not, they are going to upset someone.


----------



## Barmoley

ian said:


> Yea I basically agree with that. The questions is what’s untrue when recommendations are constantly changing.


That's the point though. I agree they are not in the business of providing medical advice. They can't and shouldn't make any judgement calls, they are not experts. They don't know what advice is good or bad. Easiest is to just let it be, you are an entertainment platform, be that. Don't start making judgement calls on what is good or bad medical advice. Once you do, then you should be held to a higher standard. Clearly, injecting disinfectant is a stupid and dangerous thing to do, but other stuff, who knows, they definitely don't. We can't even decide the last 100 years if coffee is good or bad, seemingly every week there is a new study with opposite results from the previous. I don't think mega doses of vitamin C do anything except give some people diarrhea, but I don't know that for a fact and so doesn't YouTube staff.


----------



## M1k3

But then if they go the hands off route, they'll get sued like crazy from all sides....


----------



## Barmoley

M1k3 said:


> But then if they go the hands off route, they'll get sued like crazy from all sides....


For what? They don't post anything, they are a platform. They already don't allow content that is illegal. They can very easily defend lawsuites of giving bad medical advice and they have an army of lawyers to do it.


----------



## Bill13

Something to watch over the weekend, a new Michael Moore Movie: 
It has the usual MM scare tactics, but it's still informative, or it was for me. 

I have not watched the whole movie yet (almost there) but I can tell you when I ask Tesla how their cars are powered invariable they say electricity or batteries. So copying one of my heroes, Thomas Sowell, you can't just stop there. You need to ask but then what, multiple times. When they answer Dominion Energy (for our area) I'll tell them almost 60% of DE power comes from fossil fuels, and since we have a coal fired plant nearby, our area is mostly coal. Maybe it's still a net positive, but that car pollutes too and if you are using ethanol or coal it is worse than a gas car.


----------



## M1k3

Barmoley said:


> For what? They don't post anything, they are a platform. They already don't allow content that is illegal. They can very easily defend lawsuites of giving bad medical advice and they have an army of lawyers to do it.



They are an American company so.... pretty much for anything. 

Algorithms and lackeys are cheaper than lawyers...


----------



## chinacats

Edited to avoid politics...but holy ****...


----------



## M1k3

Buttery nails.


----------



## WildBoar

Bill13 said:


> I have not watched the whole movie yet (almost there) but I can tell you when I ask Tesla how their cars are powered invariable they say electricity or batteries. So copying one of my heroes, Thomas Sowell, you can't just stop there. You need to ask but then what, multiple times. When they answer Dominion Energy (for our area) I'll tell them almost 60% of DE power comes from fossil fuels, and since we have a coal fired plant nearby, our area is mostly coal. Maybe it's still a net positive, but that car pollutes too and if you are using ethanol or coal it is worse than a gas car.


Yeah, the electrical car people are funny in how blind they can be. Some have solar to help provide power for their chargers, but that just means their power for inside the home is all coming from the electric company.


----------



## ian

Bill13 said:


> Something to watch over the weekend, a new Michael Moore Movie:
> It has the usual MM scare tactics, but it's still informative, or it was for me.
> 
> I have not watched the whole movie yet (almost there) but I can tell you when I ask Tesla how their cars are powered invariable they say electricity or batteries. So copying one of my heroes, Thomas Sowell, you can't just stop there. You need to ask but then what, multiple times. When they answer Dominion Energy (for our area) I'll tell them almost 60% of DE power comes from fossil fuels, and since we have a coal fired plant nearby, our area is mostly coal. Maybe it's still a net positive, but that car pollutes too and if you are using ethanol or coal it is worse than a gas car.




True.



WildBoar said:


> Yeah, the electrical car people are funny in how blind they can be. Some have solar to help provide power for their chargers, but that just means their power for inside the home is all coming from the electric company.



The thing is, all this shouldn’t be interpreted as an argument against electric cars, but an argument for making the power grid cleaner. We need to start promoting the use of electric cars now, because it’ll take some time for people to become accustomed to them as the new normal, and we need to encourage enough demand that they become cheap enough for the majority of people to buy. The power grid is going to go green eventually, and if we wait till that happens to start promoting electric cars, we’ll have wasted time.

Even if someone’s electric car pollutes just as much as a gas powered car due to a coal powered grid, they’re still encouraging a movement toward green power by buying it.


----------



## HRC_64

x


ian said:


> Yea I basically agree with that. The questions is what’s untrue when recommendations are constantly changing.



WHO says nobody can talk about virus immunity anymore...hopefully google will start scubbing soon








No evidence recovered covid patients can't be re-infected WHO says


United Nations agency warned against issuing 'immunity passports' to people who have been infected, saying practice may actually increase the risk of spread as they may ignore standard advice.




www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## HRC_64

'No Evidence' Yet That Recovered COVID-19 Patients Are Immune, WHO Says


The World Health Organization warned against "immunity passports," which allow travel only to recovered patients, saying studies must first confirm whether people are indeed safe from reinfection.




www.npr.org













'No evidence' that recovering from Covid-19 gives people immunity, WHO says


The World Health Organization warned on Saturday that recovering from coronavirus may not protect people from reinfection as the death toll from the pandemic approached 200,000 around the globe.




www.france24.com


----------



## daveb

Same WHO that said it's not infectious?


----------



## daveb

Difference between Michael Moore and a bag of fertilizer is fertilizer is a useful bag of sh!t.


----------



## Bert2368

daveb said:


> Same WHO that said it's not infectious?


Same WHO that had to listen to reports from the individual countries medical/research establishments and base their recommendations on that data, as their funding and charter did not include an army of armed storm troopers/research assistants to rendition unfiltered and non politically spun data from around the world.

Still, I can find things to complain about.


----------



## daveb

WHO was at it's best as a rock band. Keith Moon would have had this sorted out.


----------



## Bill13

Saw somebody tweet something when we realized that the WHO had been acting in the best interests of China. Something like "Don't worry it's the WHO- they won't get fooled again"


----------



## podzap




----------



## parbaked

I kinda agree with this except for the being simple part...


----------



## parbaked

ian said:


> It's hit and miss here. I'd say more than 85% of people are wearing masks, but there are some people (often 20somethings) who seem unaware that there's even a pandemic. Then again, I'm in a liberal neighborhood in Boston.


I went to TJ's on Friday and they are basically require masks. They also has ample hand sanitizers and disposable wipes.


..


----------



## M1k3

parbaked said:


> I went to TJ's od Friday and they are basically require masks. They also has ample hand sanitizers and disposable wipes.View attachment 78310
> ..



It's required in L.A., San Bernardino and Riverside county everyone has to wear a facemask in the store. Free sanitizer optional.


----------



## Barmoley

parbaked said:


> I kinda agree with this except for the being simple part...
> 
> View attachment 78309


Unfortunately, the guy in prison needs to come out and go to work sooner rather than later if we don't want to be in an even worse situation. So low and very low are our best options and not simple at all.


----------



## Luftmensch

ian said:


> Not sure exactly what I think about all this. The first amendment is important, but we've been seeing more and more the dangers posed by the easy spread of disinformation on these platforms. I'm generally in favor of banning content that can be proven false and misleading. It's just too dangerous.
> 
> Disinformation seems especially important to combat during a pandemic. On the other hand, the WHO guidelines haven't been completely stellar so far, so using them as a benchmark is arguable. Not sure where the video you linked fits on the scale from



The clock is ticking on what big tech-companies can get away with. So far they have been able to hide behind shields such as "free speech", "it is user generated content; not ours" or "we just aggregate data". There have already been several years of push and pull from many sides. It is a new technology and society is figuring out how to regulate it and what our collective expectations are.

There are strong ideological beliefs in the absolute power of "freedom of speech" in America. I'll leave it for Americans to discuss that. Suffice to say that, that specific culture is not shared globally (and these tech-companies are multinational). Other advanced western nations share similar laws to America but have different cultures and expectations around how far those boundaries can be extended. Some of those countries are pushing harder than others to hold the tech-world to a higher standard when it comes to veracity (read, more limitations). For instance, holding aspects of social media to the same standards as traditional media... that would have a rather profound impact on what was deemed publishable (or how it was indexed). 

I am not proposing a solution. Just encouraging you to think about the wisdom of unchecked "freedom of speech". 

For my money; a democracy cant function as a proper informed body if the discussion is muddied with vested interest and ideologically motivated nonsense. At a time like this we should be appealing to the advice of true experts - if it means some voices are not given a megaphone... all the better.


----------



## Michi

I'm not sure that the idea of "free speech" necessarily applies at all times.

We have no problems, for example, with regulating banks to enforce money laundering regulations. We also have no problems taking down sites such a Silk Road (essentially an eBay for illegal drugs) or MegaUpload (which was widely used to share content that infringed copyright). "Free speech" doesn't even enter the discussion in such cases.

There are deep problems associated with technologies such as YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc. These services have made it possible for a single person to potentially reach millions of people, at _zero_ cost. They also have made it possible for foreign actors to influence and manipulate public opinion, potentially to the point of changing election outcomes.

Prior to the Internet, it was very difficult for a foreign secret service to infiltrate and manipulate mass media. They couldn't just go and change what TV stations broadcast, or what journalists wrote in newspapers. With digital media, this is easily possible, and is being carried out systematically.

I am very unsure that "free speech" is a right that should extend to foreign nations but, effectively, digital media allows them to say whatever they want and lie as much as they like.

Also, I do not believe that we have had "free speech" in mass media all along, even prior to the Internet. There are censorship boards that classify or prohibit the screening of certain films. TV stations cannot broadcast anything they like, such as incite people to riot, and similar. Many countries have anti-discrimination rules (for good reasons) that make it illegal to promote hate speech, discrimate against people based on their race, religion, political views, etc.

We do not allow pedophiles to exercise their right to "free speech" by allowing them to publish child pornography, and the video of the New Zealand mass shootings was hunted down and removed from easy access quite quickly and effectively. (Did that removal violate the shooter's right to "free speech"?)

To me, the real problem here is that, in general, it's a bad idea to let anyone—no matter how dumb, extreme, radical, and dangerous—publish anything they want to a potentially unlimited audience at zero cost. Prior to digital media, if I wanted to reach a large audience, I needed—first and foremost—money. Because purchasing TV broadcast time or newspaper ads was expensive, and books could typically be published only with the assistance of a publisher, who would exercise some editorial control.

In other words, in the past, cranks had a much harder time, both in finding each other, and in reaching an audience. But now, all it sometimes takes is a single idiot posting a piece of fake video or some made-up story and, before you know it, it can go viral.

Personally, I don't believe it is appropriate to allow companies such as Facebook and Google to indefinitely wash their hands of any and all responsibility for what appears on their platforms. They don't mind collecting all the revenue from advertising and selling users' data, so why should they not be obliged to use some of that money to enforce to some level of journalistic integrity?

We are in the Wild West era of digital platforms. At the moment, pretty much anything goes. I believe that we will have to change this over time. In particular, it should be made very difficult to post content anonymously or with a fake identity. People tend to be a lot more circumspect when they know that readers/viewers can find out who they are.


----------



## ian

Luftmensch said:


> There are strong ideological beliefs in the absolute power of "freedom of speech" in America. I'll leave it for Americans to discuss that. Suffice to say that, that specific culture is not shared globally (and these tech-companies are multinational). Other advanced western nations share similar laws to America but have different cultures and expectations around how far those boundaries can be extended. Some of those countries are pushing harder than others to hold the tech-world to a higher standard when it comes to veracity (read, more limitations). For instance, holding aspects of social media to the same standards as traditional media... that would have a rather profound impact on what was deemed publishable (or how it was indexed).



Yea, hope this attitude shifts in the US soon. The problem of our time is definitely too much speech, not too little.

edit: although, sorry, let me just register that (obviously) I don’t want to have a censored internet like in china. guess it’s like, a hard problem, or something...


----------



## Bill13

I am not sure how a bio tech company describing their UV light treatment violates their rules?? They have not just removed the video they have now removed their account. This is a publicly traded company in the US. Again private co so they have that right. I'm double creeped out. Maybe we should just call this group of companies "the ministry of truth"


----------



## ian

Bill13 said:


> I am not sure how a bio tech company describing their UV light treatment violates their rules?? They have not just removed the video they have now removed their account. This is a publicly traded company in the US. Again private co so they have that right. I'm double creeped out. Maybe we should just call this group of companies "the ministry of truth"



That’s a little confusing to me too. I’m not sure exactly what’s going on. There are articles like this one that indicate that the company is practicing coronavirus opportunism and is not really operating in anyone’s best interest, but I don’t know anything about this. I’d be interested to know exactly why their twitter account was deleted. That said, I’m hesitant to cry ministry of truth since I don’t know any of the details here.


----------



## HRC_64

This piece of news is concerning for the time being:



> A test made by Bioperfectus detected antibodies in 100 percent of the infected samples, but only after three weeks of infection. None of the tests did better than 80 percent until that time period, which was longer than expected, Dr. Hsu said.











Coronavirus Antibody Tests: Can You Trust the Results? (Published 2020)


A team of scientists worked around the clock to evaluate 14 antibody tests. A few worked as advertised. Most did not.




www.nytimes.com





Recall our discussion earlier about the USS Roosevelt - the 2 week quarantine was leading to apparent re-infections. suggesting at a minimum the 2-week window may be insufficient to "flush" the virus from your system.

The above article is about antibody testing. Basically saying that antibody tests need 3 weeks to produce reliable results (>80% detection).

I'n not a rocket scientist but this suggests that 2 weeks is maybe too short. How are you flushing the virus if you are not making (detectable levels of) antibodies? Virus levels maybe in remission but assuming its fully gone seems to be "just an assumption".

IN any event, more strange results...


----------



## HRC_64

Here's the pre-print research paper on the antibody tests>








SARS-CoV-2_Serology_Manuscript.pdf


Shared with Dropbox




www.dropbox.com


----------



## HRC_64

Keep in mind...that cloud of particles can infect your eyes 



parbaked said:


> I kinda agree with this except for the being simple part...
> 
> View attachment 78309


----------



## Bill13

Interesting paper that studies life years lost due to Cancer:

Collateral damage: the impact on cancer outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic


----------



## daveb

ntxt


----------



## ian

Brian Weekley said:


> Not taking a position but this is worth a watch ....




Fyi, I found this link which summarizes their main arguments. (I think. I still haven’t watched the video. Too long for me. Also, I’m porting this quote over to this thread from the “coping” thread.)

Guess their main point is that lots of people in CA have it, with estimated up to 12%, so the death rate is much lower than expected, and it’s more like a flu, and Sweden’s doing relatively ok. Well, in any case I’ll be waiting to see if any of the new data that is coming in changes the CDC/WHO recommendations.


----------



## VICTOR J CREAZZI

I haven't figured out whether the lower death rate is good news or bad. On one hand it means that if I do get it, my chances of it not being serious are better. On the other hand, it means that it's much more likely for people to become infected.

At 12% we're still a long way from herd immunity.


----------



## Barmoley

VICTOR J CREAZZI said:


> I haven't figured out whether the lower death rate is good news or bad. On one hand it means that if I do get it, my chances of it not being serious are better. On the other hand, it means that it's much more likely for people to become infected.
> 
> At 12% we're still a long way from heard immunity.



Lower death rate if true is good news.


----------



## VICTOR J CREAZZI

Barmoley said:


> Lower death rate if true is good news.


I mostly agree, but extrapolated out It means that about 6 times as many total dead before we get to herd immunity.

Hmmm. 300,000 in the U.S. is of a magnitude that I had heard in early estimates.


----------



## Barmoley

VICTOR J CREAZZI said:


> I mostly agree, but extrapolated out It means that about 6 times as many total dead before we get to herd immunity.
> 
> Hmmm. 300,000 in the U.S. is of a magnitude that I had heard in early estimates.


I am not sure why you equate lower death rate to more people getting sick. Flu has relatively low death rate and it doesn’t kill more people. In general really deadly viruses burn themselves out faster and infect less people, but this one already seems pretty contagious. Understanding how deadly it is will not in itself make it more contagious.


----------



## VICTOR J CREAZZI

Barmoley said:


> I am not sure why you equate lower death rate to more people getting sick. Flu has relatively low death rate and it doesn’t kill more people.


I equate more people having it to more people getting sick. We have vaccines and some immunity to flu. This is totally different from flu.


----------



## Barmoley

VICTOR J CREAZZI said:


> I equate more people having it to more people getting sick. We have vaccines and some immunity to flu. This is totally different from flu.


I was commenting on you not being sure if lower death rate was good or bad. It is good. It is different from flu now, I wonder what the flu was like when it first appeared, before immunity and vaccines. I don’t know, but it would be interesting. It seems that the virus has been in CA for months before we knew it was here, it also seems to be very contagious. It’s been expected that more people had it, we are getting more data now and as we get more tests the percentage is likely to go up. Unfortunately, the tests are crap, but with more tests and hopefully better tests I suspect we will see that even more people have had it.


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> I do not believe that we have had "free speech" in mass media all along, even prior to the Internet.



Certainly not! We never have. Never will. Australia does not have 'free speech' enshrined in a bill of rights - it only exists under common law. Our laws grants us freedom to speak our mind in a way that does not harm others. The limitations establish libel/defamation and vilification protections... etc...



Michi said:


> Personally, I don't believe it is appropriate to allow companies such as Facebook and Google to indefinitely wash their hands of any and all responsibility for what appears on their platforms. They don't mind collecting all the revenue from advertising and selling users' data, so why should they not be obliged to use some of that money to enforce to some level of journalistic integrity?
> 
> We are in the Wild West era of digital platforms. At the moment, pretty much anything goes.



I think that day of reckoning will come. In the meantime they are strangling traditional journalism. The ACCC digital platform inquiry is looking into these issues. Quote from the executive summary:



> Digitalisation and the increase in online sources of news and media content highlight inconsistencies in the current sector-specific approach to media regulation in Australia that gives rise to an uneven playing field between digital platforms and some news media businesses. Digital platforms increasingly perform similar functions to media businesses, such as selecting and curating content, evaluating content, and ranking and arranging content online.
> 
> Despite this, virtually no media regulation applies to digital platforms. This creates regulatory disparity between some digital platforms and some more heavily-regulated media businesses that perform comparable functions. This regulatory disparity has two potential consequences:
> 
> first, the regulation may be less effective and unable to meet the goals set by policy makers (for example, protecting children from inappropriate advertisements or content)
> second, the disparity risks distorting competition, such as competition between the digital platforms and media businesses supplying advertising opportunities.
> The disparity exists due to the failure of current regulatory frameworks to keep pace with changes in technology, consumer preferences and the way in which media businesses now operate.
> 
> The ACCC recommends that media regulatory frameworks be updated, to ensure comparable functions are effectively and consistently regulated. The framework should, as far as possible, be platform neutral, clear and contain appropriate enforcement mechanisms and meaningful sanctions.



One of many recommendations (blegh... another industry code of conduct):



> Digital platforms with more than one million monthly active users in Australia should implement an industry code of conduct to govern the handling of complaints about disinformation (inaccurate information created and spread with the intent to cause harm) in relation to news and journalism, or content presented as news and journalism, on their services. Application of the code should be restricted to complaints about disinformation that meet a ‘serious public detriment’ threshold as defined in the code.



... We'll get it right... eventually (I hope  ).


----------



## Luftmensch

Brian Weekley said:


> Not taking a position but this is worth a watch ....






ian said:


> What are the things you found compelling about it? I don’t have an hour to watch it atm. Watched the beginning and my main takeaways were that their urgent care clinics were in trouble financially because noone’s coming in for other stuff. And I always consider it a red flag when people advertise their expertise by saying they “took classes” in the field, at least when arguing against the advice of the actual experts. (Taking classes is the first of like 20 steps to becoming an expert.) But I’m just being crotchety... noone really knows for sure what’s up now anyway, not even the experts. And the people in the video sure know more than I do. Anyway, I’d like to know what you liked about their argument. Maybe this should be in the “Preparing for...” thread, though?



I watched the first four minutes... until this part:



> We decided to keep people at home and isolate them; even though everything we've studied about quarantine typically you quarantine the sick; when someone has measles you quarantine them; we've never seen where we quarantine the healthy; where you take those without disease and without symptoms and lock them in your home. So some of these things from what we have studied from immunology and microbiology aren't really meshing with what we know as people of scientific minds that read this stuff every day



This prevented me from watching the rest - a pity if there was useful information in there. An 'expert' getting the definition of quarantine wrong, or communicating it that poorly, made me want to save my time. I can't comment on its content, I didn't have the energy to slug through it...


----------



## Brian Weekley

Very interesting comment!


----------



## Bill13

Great place to see a detailed timeline of this virus.









COVID-19 from the start: The definitive coronavirus timeline


Editor's Note: This comprehensive coronavirus timeline is, as far as we've been able to find, the only one of its




noqreport.com


----------



## Bill13

For a somewhat technical write up of the treatments available with a lot of links. COVID-19: Clinical/Therapeutic Staging Proposal and Treatment - REBEL EM - Emergency Medicine Blog


----------



## M1k3

Luftmensch said:


> I watched the first four minutes... until this part:
> 
> 
> 
> This prevented me from watching the rest - a pity if there was useful information in there. An 'expert' getting the definition of quarantine wrong, or communicating it that poorly, made me want to save my time. I can't comment on its content, I didn't have the energy to slug through it...



Did they totally gloss over the Spanish flu?


----------



## chinacats

Bill13 said:


> Great place to see a detailed timeline of this virus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 from the start: The definitive coronavirus timeline
> 
> 
> Editor's Note: This comprehensive coronavirus timeline is, as far as we've been able to find, the only one of its
> 
> 
> 
> 
> noqreport.com




This timeline misses the fact that the virus has to have spread in US communally by early January at the latest as non travellers died in CA by early Feb (6th i believe). Many virus researchers are now saying this was likely spreading on the west coast by mid December at latest and ripping through NY by this time as well.

It also mixes obvious political claims...worse yet, quoting twitter as a source, lol...


----------



## chinacats

I've only tried google--I know better but timelines that pop up are all pretty worthless. Info on first US death is 57 yo in Santa Clara county w no travel history (communal spread) dies 2/6. Avg time to death is 30 days from infection. "If" that person got it firsthand from traveller from China that still puts US community spread at early January. I'll try to find better source and post updated info...


----------



## Bill13

chinacats said:


> This timeline misses the fact that the virus has to have spread in US communally by early January at the latest as non travellers died in CA by early Feb (6th i believe). Many virus researchers are now saying this was likely spreading on the west coast by mid December at latest and ripping through NY by this time as well.
> 
> It also mixes obvious political claims...worse yet, quoting twitter as a source, lol...



Agreed not perfect but if they keep the updates going it will get better.

Yes 1/14 should be left out.


----------



## Bill13

Some models are still way off: Right now they have a total of 266: RI Department of Health COVID-19 Response Data Hub


----------



## chinacats

Not to get folks hopes up but did anyone else read about newest vaccine potential? 









In Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine, an Oxford Group Leaps Ahead (Published 2020)


As scientists at the Jenner Institute prepare for mass clinical trials, new tests show their vaccine to be effective in monkeys.




www.nytimes.com


----------



## HRC_64

chinacats said:


> I've only tried google--I know better but timelines that pop up are all pretty worthless. Info on first US death is 57 yo in Santa Clara county w no travel history (communal spread) dies 2/6. Avg time to death is 30 days from infection. "If" that person got it firsthand from traveller from China that still puts US community spread at early January. I'll try to find better source and post updated info...



The casualty in santa clara worked for a microchip company with all inevitable links to china you would guess. Its highly unlikely her case was not related to her work. ITs sort of a nuance if she didn't fly directly to China herself.

Much different to the first community spread cases in washinton state, IMHO


----------



## chinacats

HRC_64 said:


> The casualty in santa clara worked for a microchip company with all inevitable links to china you would guess. Its highly unlikely her case was not related to her work. ITs sort of a nuance if she didn't fly directly to China herself.
> 
> Much different to the first community spread cases in washinton state, IMHO



Source? She was a manager at chip company which really tells nothing about her infection since these companies are all fairly large...and not necessarily dealing directly w anyone in China...


----------



## Bill13

Holy F I can not believe this: Mayo Clinic to furlough or reduce pay of 30,000 employees

A state with fewer than 4,000 cases and fewer than 300 deaths. The cure is getting worse and worse.


----------



## Barmoley

Bill13 said:


> Holy F I can not believe this: Mayo Clinic to furlough or reduce pay of 30,000 employees
> 
> A state with fewer than 4,000 cases and fewer than 300 deaths. The cure is getting worse and worse.


Yeah, that's part of the issue, as we wait for hospitals to be overrun and elective surgeries, non essential tests, screenings, etc are put on hold many medical workers are actually loosing their jobs or large portions of their income. This is happening in CA too, a bunch of my friends who are anesthesiologist, dentists, orthodontists are in serious financial trouble while hospitals are empty and clinics and private practices are closed. Worse yet, screening for cancer and other very serious diseases are on hold too and who knows what the fallout of that will be. All in all as bad as the virus is the fallout from being scared of it is shaping up to be pretty bad too. There doesn't seem to be a good decision to make at the moment, whatever the government does they will be blamed for it, I am just glad I don't have to make these decisions.


----------



## chinacats




----------



## Bill13

Even Newsweek is beginning to see this disaster: Most U.S. hospitals are empty. Soon they might be closed for good | Opinion


----------



## inferno

chinacats said:


> Not to get folks hopes up but did anyone else read about newest vaccine potential?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine, an Oxford Group Leaps Ahead (Published 2020)
> 
> 
> As scientists at the Jenner Institute prepare for mass clinical trials, new tests show their vaccine to be effective in monkeys.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com



i hope these are the same people that made the aids vaccine. it sounds so promising.


----------



## chinacats

inferno said:


> i hope these are the same people that made the aids vaccine. it sounds so promising.



LOL, the vaccine we're still awaiting?


----------



## inferno

yeah there is no aids vaccine. and never will be. they been at it since 1981 or so. 

i wouldn't get my hope up for a corona vaccine. not this decade at least.


----------



## Matus

That is nonsense.


----------



## chinacats

inferno said:


> yeah there is no aids vaccine. and never will be. they been at it since 1981 or so.
> 
> i wouldn't get my hope up for a corona vaccine. not this decade at least.



Not getting hopes up but realistically part of the reason there is no vaccine for HIV/AIDS is because there is medication that keeps people from dying...and it can't spread through air...


----------



## inferno

Matus said:


> That is nonsense.



what is? that there will never be an aids vaccine?
or that there wont be a corona vaccine?

-------------

it usually takes 10 years to develop a good vaccine _if its possible_ for a particular virus. so do you want to take the hackjob vaccine?
please do and report back to us if its any good!


----------



## chinacats

inferno said:


> what is? that there will never be an aids vaccine?
> or that there wont be a corona vaccine?
> 
> -------------
> 
> it usually takes 10 years to develop a good vaccine _if its possible_ for a particular virus. so do you want to take the hackjob vaccine?
> please do and report back to us if its any good!



You're correct about the usual timeline...need resources, science and luck to change that.

There are currently phase one trials all around the world...US started 3/17.


----------



## HRC_64

chinacats said:


> Source? She was a manager at chip company which really tells nothing about her infection since these companies are all fairly large...and not necessarily dealing directly w anyone in China...



She worked for LAM research HQ in Fremont, CA.








Lam Research - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





They are in the chip supply chain, they have critical links with microchip OEMs all around the world (large amounts of chips are OEMd in China)


> The company markets its products and services primarily to companies involved in the production of semiconductors in the United States, Europe and Asia.[35]



Here's here autopsy report.


https://www.sfchronicle.com/file/607/2/6072-Dowd_Patricia_Cabello_-_Autopsy.pdf



She died of a heart-wall rupture associated with a "hardened" heart muscle wall.






Line 207 says she didn't have any immune repsonse, which suggests (but doesn't prove) she was infected less than 2 weeks.






The heart condition is assumed to be linked to the presence of Covid-19 but this is simply anecdotal / circumstantial and possibly co-incidence. That being said, its probably the best possible guess since she was sick enough to be in some distress and under medical care.






Could easily be the straw that broke the camel's back. etc

Autopsy noted only "mild congestion", and therefore didn't die a typical Covid-19 death w/ hypoxia/hypoxeima and/or acute respiratory distess (SARS/ARDS) etc.


----------



## chinacats

What i found scary was rna in lungs, heart, trachea and intestines...sounds like she was infested...thought this primarily took up residence in the lungs...


----------



## HRC_64

chinacats said:


> What i found scary was rna in lungs, heart, trachea and intestines...sounds like she was infested...thought this primarily took up residence in the lungs...



Agree. This virus is sketchy AF.


----------



## HRC_64

Matus said:


> That is nonsense.



Matus - The WHO says there is ZERO evidence of successful (natural) immuno-supressive response. This means that there is LESS THAN ZERO evidence of a successful vaccine.


----------



## Matus

If there was less then zero chance of vaccine, then there would not be first clinical trials starting within weeks (some already started if I am not mistaken). Unless tests prove otherwise, I am remaining optimistic.


----------



## HRC_64

YALE recommending against deep-nose-swabs due to sample-collection-error risk. This links to the discussion we were having earlier about "sample" errors vs "technical erros" when it comes to results.









Saliva samples preferable to deep nasal swabs for testing COVID-19


A YSPH study has found that saliva tests are more accurate and consistent than nasal swabs, opening the door for at-home, self-administered sample collection.




news.yale.edu






> The study led by the Yale School of Public Health — and conducted at Yale New Haven Hospital with 44 inpatients and 98 health care workers — found that saliva samples taken from just inside the mouth provided greater detection sensitivity and consistency throughout the course of an infection than the broadly recommended nasopharyngeal (NP) approach. The study also concluded that there was less variability in results with the self-sample collection of saliva.



Here's a standard kit w/instruction (NP swabs) for anyone currious...


https://health.ri.gov/publications/instructions/COVID-19-Specimen-Collection-Kit.pdf


----------



## HRC_64

Matus said:


> If there was less then zero chance of vaccine, then there would not be first clinical trials starting within weeks (some already started if I am not mistaken). Unless tests prove otherwise, I am remaining optimistic.



Less than zero was a joke 

Its not impossibel to parallel track these studies to not create bottlenecks, but one has to remain cognizant of where all the moving pieces are. 

If you do not have evidence of a successful natural imunity, creating artifical immunity is "one logical step" further removed from being "scientifically" proven.


----------



## Michi

5-minute video comparing Australia and Sweden with Dr Norman Swan:

How does Australia’s coronavirus response compare to Sweden’s?


----------



## milkbaby

chinacats said:


> You're correct about the usual timeline...need resources, science and luck to change that.
> 
> There are currently phase one trials all around the world...US started 3/17.



I'll throw in my two cents and open with the logical fallacy of appeal to authority by saying that I'm a lab manager and scientist in a laboratory that is interested in possible vaccine development. Not COVID-19 though we have people drafted into the current research by one of the labs we associate with.

My boss invited one of the leading researchers in one branch of our work to give a talk and our lab had really nice discussions with him. One thing we asked was about the potential funding of further research of our technologies by pharmaceutical companies for vaccines. He said that there was actually very little money or interest from the pharmaceutical sector because of the high failure rate of drug and vaccine testing. It takes a ton of time and money to first test in cell lines, then in animals, then in people, and then less than 2% of drugs that ever get tested in people get approved for use.

Obviously, there is a huge difference here what with COVID-19 having a huge worldwide effect (on both lives and the world economy). I see it kind of like the first guy that got penicillin, the first antibiotic. Albert Alexander was a reserve constable who scratched his face on a rose thorn and was about to die from the infection. They knew he was about to die, so they figured that he had nothing to lose in trying this untested drug. So in the same manner they appear to be rushing candidate vaccines through to human trials much quicker than would normally be considered.


----------



## bahamaroot

chinacats said:


> Not getting hopes up but realistically part of the reason there is no vaccine for HIV/AIDS is because there is medication that keeps people from dying...and it can't spread through air...


The reason there is no vaccine for aids is there is more profit in treatment than a cure. What was the last vaccine for a virus that caused an incurable disease, Polio? And look how far medicine has evolved since then.


----------



## Bert2368

Bill13 said:


> Great place to see a detailed timeline of this virus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 from the start: The definitive coronavirus timeline
> 
> 
> Editor's Note: This comprehensive coronavirus timeline is, as far as we've been able to find, the only one of its
> 
> 
> 
> 
> noqreport.com



"The definitive coronavirus timeline". 

I read through that timeline.

Looked at the sources listed. Pretty narrow list for so much information. Authors mostly follows a few conservative/right wing sources, not surprising considering what NOQ is.

Looked at NOQ and who they are, what they say they do, how they are rated by a number of fact checking groups. NOQ is a USA conservative/far right organization. As with every other source with an agenda, need to verify information and vet sources as best you may.


----------



## Luftmensch

Barmoley said:


> There doesn't seem to be a good decision to make at the moment, whatever the government does they will be blamed for it, I am just glad I don't have to make these decisions.



Amen


----------



## Michi

This is really sad 

Hundreds die in Iran over false belief drinking methanol cures coronavirus


----------



## M1k3

Guess they took the disinfectant challenge also. Yes, people actually listened to this....


----------



## Luftmensch

Brian Weekley said:


> Very interesting comment!



Hehe... sorry... I don't mean to dismiss it completely. You seem like a nice person! I certainly enjoy your posts - kinda makes me feel like I should have persisted with it more.

So I fast forwarded through it and watch some snippets. Again... hardly a comprehensive base to critique something. My cursory feel is that they aren't an independent voice in this - they own a chain of urgent care clinics. I am sure the shelter-in-place order is hurting their profitability... so they have a pretty compelling personal reason to call for it to end.

I assume much of the argument revolves around this calculation [~5:15]:



> So if you look at California, these numbers are from yesterday. We have thirty 33,865 COVID cases out of a total of 280,900 total tested. That's twelve percent of Californians were positive for COVID. So we don't... the initial... as you guys know the initial models were, were woefully inaccurate.
> 
> They predicted millions of cases of death. Not of not of prevalence or incidents. But death. That is not materializing. What is materializing in the state of California is 12% positives. Well if we have 39.5 million people - if we just take a basic calculation and extrapolate that out, that equates to about 4.7 million cases throughout the state of California. Which means this thing is widespread. That's the good news. We've seen 1,227 deaths, in the state of California, with a possible incidence or prevalence of 4.7 million. That means you have a 0.03 chance of dying from COVID-19 in the state of California.



It is a blunt analysis... The 12% figure was calculated on biased data (not random sampling). So its likely not a reliable figure. Nor is extrapolating out on basic numbers likely to be too useful. While it is true that personal risk of death might be extremely low, you could use his analysis to run the numbers on the other side of the equation.

88% are not positive
If you have 39.5 million people and extrapolate that out, that equates to about 34.76 million potential cases
With 34.76 million potential cases and a 0.03 chance of dying, that equates to another 10,428 deaths
(or more simply: approximately 1227÷12×100)
Risk another 8-9x as many potential deaths?

I am playing the devils advocate here. I don't really believe in the utility of such simple math for reversing a large public health initiative. It is just to show you can twist numbers to adopt any argument. And heck... for fun 



On a side note, @ian will love this one [~26:52]:



> but academics and reality is two different things









M1k3 said:


> Did they totally gloss over the Spanish flu?



I dunno... he certainly seemed to gloss over the etymology of the word. That is; meaning forty days! This goes back to the Black Death in the mid 1300's when ship crew were isolated (for forty days) before being allowed on shore. Including 'healthy' people without symptoms!! It seems even back then... the 'cruise ship' industry was a vector for disease


----------



## ian

Luftmensch said:


> On a side note, @ian will love this one [~26:52]:



It’s true that this attitude drives me up the wall, and not just because academics is my reality. 

More because yes, academics is not reality, but it tries to model reality*, and the people who say things like that are implying that models have no use and that they should just use their intuition or whatever, which is misguided. I guess it’s not surprising to hear such an anti-science, anti-expert message coming from two urgent care entrepreneurs who are publicly questioning the guidelines of the experts.

Ok, but now you just got me all riled up. I don’t actually have a strong opinion on the content of the video.


———


* my personal academics does not model anything, and is completely useless.


----------



## Bill13

This is not just abut the economy/money. Shut downs which cause massive unemployment which results in bad economies which cause death and shortened lifespans too. Hospitals laying of tens of thousands of employees has long-term effects. There are tradeoffs.

There is no empirical evidence for these lockdowns
I asked for and received from the above author his data set so if anyone wants it but does not want to bother the author (it took a couple of days to get) I'm happy to send it to you, just DM me.

Alex Berenson (formally with the NYT) has put together some good stuff on twitter too. Mostly documenting that the flattening occurred too soon in most cases to be the result of the lockdown. He has a wicked sense of humor as an added bonus.

I'm old enough to remember when the reason for the shutdowns was to flatten the curve so hospitals would not be overwhelmed. That made sense for areas with high density populations and heavily used public transportation. But power is intoxicating and some of the governors and mayors seem to be enjoying it too much for my tastes. I'm a libertarian which colors how I see things YMMV.


----------



## Bill13

Well, well, well. We are two for two. YouTube has removed the doctors video also.


----------



## Bert2368

Bill13 said:


> This is not just abut the economy/money. Shut downs which cause massive unemployment which results in bad economies which cause death and shortened lifespans too. Hospitals laying of tens of thousands of employees has long-term effects. There are tradeoffs.
> 
> There is no empirical evidence for these lockdowns
> I asked for and received from the above author his data set so if anyone wants it but does not want to bother the author (it took a couple of days to get) I'm happy to send it to you, just DM me.
> 
> Alex Berenson (formally with the NYT) has put together some good stuff on twitter too. Mostly documenting that the flattening occurred too soon in most cases to be the result of the lockdown. He has a wicked sense of humor as an added bonus.
> 
> I'm old enough to remember when the reason for the shutdowns was to flatten the curve so hospitals would not be overwhelmed. That made sense for areas with high density populations and heavily used public transportation. But power is intoxicating and some of the governors and mayors seem to be enjoying it too much for my tastes. I'm a libertarian which colors how I see things YMMV.



Spiked was started with funding from the Koch foundation. Anyone involved in USA politics knows who the Kochs bankroll and why.





__





Redirect Notice






www.google.com





The writer of the linked article has written some books as well-






Taboo: 10 Facts You Can't Talk about: Amazon.co.uk: Reilly, Wilfred: 9781621579281: Books


Buy Taboo: 10 Facts You Can't Talk about by Reilly, Wilfred (ISBN: 9781621579281) from Amazon's Book Store. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders.



www.amazon.co.uk





See my last post re: agenda driven sources of news, veting sources and such.











Found: Libertarians' "Lying To Liberals" Guide Book


Ahead of the StopWatching.us protests, here's how right-wing libertarians convinced gullible lefties that we're all on the same team.




www.nsfwcorp.com


----------



## Bert2368

God damnit. Always the best.









Top E.R. Doctor Who Treated Virus Patients Dies by Suicide (Published 2020)


“She tried to do her job, and it killed her,” said the father of Dr. Lorna M. Breen, who worked at a Manhattan hospital hit hard by the coronavirus outbreak.




www.nytimes.com


----------



## HRC_64

Bert2368 said:


> ...



The track record in thread for critics who complain about sources are tires to "debunk" something is terrible.

Complaining about "quality of sources" is usually a signal you don't understand any of the underlying material. If you want to argue the "timeline" is wrong, re-write it with corrections. ANd cite your sources.

Otherwise, pls stop cluttering up the thread with progaganda/anti propaganda garbage links.

Every news media corporation is corrupted by either their capital funding sources (eg wall street and corporate advertisers on madison avenue), or by some other oligarchic "beneveolent" dictats of a rich owner (NY Times = suzlberger, Washington post = bezos, bloomberg=bloomber, LA Times=some random rich dude etc, facebook=zuckerberg).

Take a look at the corporate control diagrams of those entities (go ahead, read the SEC Filings, apparently you have time....and report back to the class)

This is all the same ******** with a different name on the cheque.


----------



## HRC_64

Bert2368 said:


> God damnit. Always the best.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Top E.R. Doctor Who Treated Virus Patients Dies by Suicide (Published 2020)
> 
> 
> “She tried to do her job, and it killed her,” said the father of Dr. Lorna M. Breen, who worked at a Manhattan hospital hit hard by the coronavirus outbreak.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com



Something obviouly wasn't right becasue she died after a "family intervention" all the way down in Virginia and her Hospital is in NYC. This is also peculiar because she was not only infected once, but apparently she was "re-infected" (?) with corona virus or "sent home" a second time for some other reason (either psych or discpline by hospital mgmt?), despite clearing a full quarantine and returning to work.

Its also rare these days that the article discusses "suicide" which is almost unheard of (I think it s shadowbanned word in the press). The hospital for example dids not disclose this to their employees in internal communications from what I read. The press may have deemed this bit of reporting necessart in this case is to clarify she didn't die of Covid-19 infection, since she was a confirmed postive test result.

It appears this is possibly another example of issues with re-infection or failure of the 2 week quarntine model. 

Or it could be something else very specific to her case and of a different nature. It would be nice to know if it was the former. The latter is to some extent not something for public consumption unless it involves here work duties.


----------



## chinacats

HRC_64 said:


> The track record in thread for critics who complain about sources are tires to "debunk" something is terrible.
> 
> Complaining about "quality of sources" is usually a signal you don't understand any of the underlying material. If you want to argue the "timeline" is wrong, re-write it with corrections. ANd cite your sources.
> 
> Otherwise, pls stop cluttering up the thread with progaganda/anti propaganda garbage links.
> 
> Every news media corporation is corrupted by either their capital funding sources (eg wall street and corporate advertisers on madison avenue), or by some other oligarchic "beneveolent" dictats of a rich owner (NY Times = suzlberger, Washington post = bezos, bloomberg=bloomber, LA Times=some random rich dude etc, facebook=zuckerberg).
> 
> Take a look at the corporate control diagrams of those entities (go ahead, read the SEC Filings, apparently you have time....and report back to the class)
> 
> This is all the same ******** with a different name on the cheque.


Said the person who puts his own spin on every posted news story...it is true that some sources are better than others and those that purposefully distort facts are not exactly 'news'...whatever..


----------



## ian

HRC_64 said:


> The track record in thread for critics who complain about sources are tires to "debunk" something is terrible.
> 
> Complaining about "quality of sources" is usually a signal you don't understand any of the underlying material. If you want to argue the "timeline" is wrong, re-write it with corrections. ANd cite your sources.
> 
> Otherwise, pls stop cluttering up the thread with progaganda/anti propaganda garbage links.
> 
> Every news media corporation is corrupted by either their capital funding sources (eg wall street and corporate advertisers on madison avenue), or by some other oligarchic "beneveolent" dictats of a rich owner (NY Times = suzlberger, Washington post = bezos, bloomberg=bloomber, LA Times=some random rich dude etc, facebook=zuckerberg).
> 
> Take a look at the corporate control diagrams of those entities (go ahead, read the SEC Filings, apparently you have time....and report back to the class)
> 
> This is all the same ******** with a different name on the cheque.



I admit my desire to read that article was also diminished by the fact that it was published in Spiked, a magazine with a distinct conservative bias. That said, of course you're right, and we shouldn't dismiss anything out of hand just because of the journal in which it appears, and that instead, we should argue the specific merits of the article. But my god... there are so many articles out there. Who has time to actually go through even the articles that are posted on KKF... Lots of the articles we're talking about probably have subtle mistakes that require real work to identify. So unless an article introduces some new piece of info that someone on here identifies and says "wow, that's interesting", I'm not going to spend the time working through their new interpretations of the usual data and trying to figure out whether in fact I should now doubt the recommendations of the CDC and WHO, especially if this article comes from somewhere with a known bias in the direction of the articles conclusions. 

Anyway, whatever. Rant over. Maybe my point is just that I've had too much wine and can't read anything complicated at the moment anyway. Luckily there's a forum where I can just vomit out content without thinking! 



HRC_64 said:


> Something obviouly wasn't right becasue she died after a "family intervention" all the way down in Virginia and her Hospital is in NYC. This is also peculiar because she was not only infected once, but apparently she was "re-infected" (?) with corona virus or "sent home" a second time for some other reason (either psych or discpline by hospital mgmt?), despite clearing a full quarantine and returning to work.
> 
> Its also rare these days that the article discusses "suicide" which is almost unheard of (I think it s shadowbanned word in the press). The hospital for example dids not disclose this to their employees in internal communications from what I read. The press may have deemed this bit of reporting necessart in this case is to clarify she didn't die of Covid-19 infection, since she was a confirmed postive test result.
> 
> It appears this is possibly another example of issues with re-infection or failure of the 2 week quarntine model.
> 
> Or it could be something else very specific to her case and of a different nature. It would be nice to know if it was the former. The latter is to some extent not something for public consumption unless it involves here work duties.



??

The point of the article is that being a doctor in the time of coronavirus is stressful. It has almost nothing to do with her being infected, although I imagine that was stressful too.


----------



## Bill13

Too much wine, is that possible?? What are you enjoying? Turley Juvenile Zin for me and the spouse.


----------



## HRC_64

ian said:


> The point of the article is that being a doctor in the time of coronavirus is stressful. It has almost nothing to do with her being infected, although I imagine that was stressful too.



First, I have not doubts being a Doc in NYC right now is stressful. One of the intersting takeaways from the ICU docs video was you could see/feel the various situations they were dealing with (not easy). Especially with lack of time, money, staff, and PPE/etc

But at the same time, there are some questions that are in the public interest to understand. Its normal to expect (but necessarily to accept) that a lot of facts (information) is being limited for public consumption because of the neature fo the death of the Dr in the earlier article.

The subject in question wasn't simply a doctor, she was the Medical director of Emergemcy Medicine at a Columbia/Cornell (ie Ivy league research hospital) in NEW YORK CITY. 

These people are well-trained and selected from a deep talent pool.

Our discussion earlier adressed earlier about "2 week" qurantine model (USS Roosevel issues) and the "3-week Antibody test mode" (CDC research) both of which are adressing issues liked to mulitple studies out of asia showing possible Covid-19 reinfection potential (SK, Japan, China). 

So for thsi reason I think the Dr.'s case is intersting if it sheds light on these issues. If it doesn't and is purely a personal tragedy, I'm OK with that info remaining private.


----------



## ian

Bill13 said:


> Too much wine, is that possible?? What are you enjoying? Turley Juvenile Zin for me and the spouse.



Now here's a good topic! Mine was a Stephen Millier Cabernet from nakedwines.com. Naked wines has been good to us. Cheap and very drinkable. We get a box of assorted wines in the mail for not so much a bottle. Good selections, imo.


----------



## HRC_64

More debate about: Airborne +Aerosols








Airborne Coronavirus Detected in Wuhan Hospitals (Published 2020)


While the RNA of the virus was found in tiny droplets in China, scientists don’t know if it was capable of transmitting the virus.




www.nytimes.com






> Linsey Marr, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Virginia Tech who was not involved with the Nature paper. “It strongly suggests that there is potential for airborne transmission.”



WHO may need to revise its position again


> Dr. Marr and many other scientists say evidence is mounting that the coronavirus is being spread by tiny droplets known as aerosols. The World Health Organization has so far downplayed the possibility...





Maybe google will save us from article by deleting it and all references to it


----------



## Bill13

HRC_64 said:


> More debate about: Airborne +Aerosols
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Airborne Coronavirus Detected in Wuhan Hospitals (Published 2020)
> 
> 
> While the RNA of the virus was found in tiny droplets in China, scientists don’t know if it was capable of transmitting the virus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> WHO may need to revise its position again
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Maybe google will save us from article by deleting it and all references to it



Va Tech is a great school with high quality professors - just ask Wildboar. Really though if they are saying it's an issue it most likely is.


----------



## WildBoar

Bill13 said:


> Va Tech is a great school with high quality professors - just ask Wildboar. Really though if they are saying it's an issue it most likely is.


Hmmmm, if I remember correctly the primary qualification for teaching freshman/ sophomore engineering students was an inability to communicate effectively in the English language


----------



## Michi

The aerosol theory sounds plausible to me, at least. It would also help to explain why the number of infections is so large (much larger than we initially thought): if the R0 is larger than the ~2.5 one commonly sees quoted, and considering the large number of asymptomatic infections, it would be no surprise that the disease has managed to spread so fast.

But merely detecting RNA in an aerosol doesn't necessarily mean that the virus spreads that way. We'll have to wait and see whether they can culture the virus from an aerosol. If so, that would be truly bad news


----------



## Bert2368

I quit drinking at the beginning of the corona madness. It probably shows.


----------



## WildBoar

Talked to a friend of mine earlier today. His 82 year old dad had a stroke back in early February. Or did he? He has been having a rocky recovery, where some days he is fine, and some days he has impaired motor abilities. His lab work, etc. showed no signs of a stroke. Turns out my friend's sister was sick in late January with the flu, although she tested negative. Her Dr figured it was a false negative and sent her on her way. She had a couple fairly bad days, then recovered. So then their father (the parents live near my friend's sister) started feeling poorly, with headaches, sore throat, etc. He wasn't too bad for a couple of days, but then he got a lot worse and had motor issues and difficulties breathing, and he spent 3 days in the hospital. They diagnosed it as a small stroke, but in follow-on testing, etc. later in February they could not find any evidence of a stroke. He started to improve, and get back movement abilities, although it was/ has been very up and down. The mother than appeared to get a mild case of the flu. And my friend, who had been over at his parent's house helping to finish the basement, felt sick for a week, mainly with breathing difficulties. Looking back at it all now, especially with the new 'symptoms' confirmed that include headaches, they think they all may have had the virus. They are going to see if the father and/ or sister can get tested to see if they show evidence, such as antibodies. Not sure if a Dr will give the okay for the testing though.

This is in the DC/ Northern Virginia area.


----------



## HRC_64

WildBoar said:


> They are going to see if the father and/ or sister can get tested to see if they show evidence, such as antibodies. Not sure if a Dr will give the okay for the testing though.



Quest Diagnostics (many you will know this as a big USA lab company) will sell you their Antibody test direct. Not sure if the data on it are public (performance/etc) but its using an Abbot test kit, which is a generally reputable supplier for lab/diagnostic).



> Quest Diagnostics is rolling out its own antibody testing service, using tests from Abbott and Euroimmun





> One big manufacturer, Abbott, recently launched a serology test and plans to produce 20 million tests a month by June. The company said it will apply to FDA for official authorization.











Quest Diagnostics Launches Consumer-Initiated COVID-19 Antibody Test Through QuestDirect™


Beginning today, individuals can purchase COVID-19 antibody testing for themselves online, without visiting a doctor's office, through QuestDirect, the consumer-initiated testing business of Quest...




newsroom.questdiagnostics.com













Quest Diagnostics launches first consumer-ordered COVID-19 antibody test


For about $120, anyone can get now get a COVID-19 antibody test from Quest Diagnostics. | For about $120, anyone can get now get a COVID-19 antibody test from Quest Diagnostics.




www.fiercehealthcare.com


----------



## WildBoar

It was just announced, so I suspect it could take a little while to get one. Looks like you have to go to one of their locations to get your blood drawn. The Quests I have been to are a little, uh, worrysome, so I wonder how they are going to control the flow of people and keep them separated in their tiny waiting areas. Hopefully the paperwork can all be done online so you don't need to stand their at one of the desks for 10 minutes. Quests always seems like there is an endless stream of people passing through, and I've always worried about catching something while I am there (it's the clientele mainly; many of them are there for court-required testing). It's definitely a 'get me out of here as quickly as possible' kind of place.

Not knocking their testing whatsoever, as that is first-rate. Just their 'storefronts', where real people need to visit to provide samples. Maybe they can hang UV lights from the ceiling?


----------



## HRC_64

WildBoar said:


> Not knocking their testing whatsoever, as that is first-rate. Just their 'storefronts', where real people need to visit to provide samples. Maybe they can hang UV lights from the ceiling?



Not personally familiar with the retail side, sound like a zip code lottery...

Since antibodies and testing continue to be in the news, this is another good article for people








How (Not) to Do an Antibody Survey for SARS-CoV-2


Preprints from the first round of seroprevalence studies indicate that many more people have been infected with the virus than previously reported. Some of these studies also have serious design flaws.




www.the-scientist.com






> “I don’t think any of the current point-of-care tests are appropriate for use in seroprevalence surveys,” says Michael Busch, the director of Vitalant Research Institute, a nonprofit transfusion medicine organization. ...
> 
> Good antibody surveys require samples that can be retested . . . If you don’t have a good test, there’s no point in running a serologic survey.”


----------



## HRC_64

This article is useful background on the topic...regarding antibodies vs immunity. 

In particular it details that SARS and MERS immunological responses were differential, whcih implies SARS-2/COVID-19 will need independent study/establishment.








What Do Antibody Tests For SARS-CoV-2 Tell Us About Immunity?


Studies from serum samples could transform our understanding of the spread of COVID-19, but what antibodies alone say about immunity is not yet clear.




www.the-scientist.com


----------



## Bill13

ian said:


> Now here's a good topic! Mine was a Stephen Millier Cabernet from nakedwines.com. Naked wines has been good to us. Cheap and very drinkable. We get a box of assorted wines in the mail for not so much a bottle. Good selections, imo.


Thanks, I will give it a go. I need more Pinot's. I seem to be drinking more during this.


----------



## Bill13

So now the WHO compliments Sweden: WHO lauds Sweden as a ‘model’ in coronavirus fight for resisting lockdown


----------



## WildBoar

Well they sure as heck won't compliment the US since we pulled funding. They probably figure what would be better than giving a slap on the back to a country that did the exact opposite.

Politics is everywhere, and the WHO is very much tied up in it.


----------



## Bill13

Nice summary of the trials to date for HC and Z: CoVID19__HCQTreatmentTable__4.26.20__Gov.Ducey.pdf


Bert2368 said:


> "The definitive coronavirus timeline".
> 
> I read through that timeline.
> 
> Looked at the sources listed. Pretty narrow list for so much information. Authors mostly follows a few conservative/right wing sources, not surprising considering what NOQ is.
> 
> Looked at NOQ and who they are, what they say they do, how they are rated by a number of fact checking groups. NOQ is a USA conservative/far right organization. As with every other source with an agenda, need to verify information and vet sources as best you may.



Good points. Hopefully they will continue to add info.


----------



## Bill13

More good news regarding HC. In Italy they have been studying how the patients taking HC for lupus or RA have fared (why are we not doing that??). Anyway, of 65,000 patients, only 20 have come down with Covid and none have been in ICU and none have died. That is a 90% reduction in rates of infection compared to the rest of Italy. Could be a coincidence, but maybe not?









Perché l'idrossiclorochina potrebbe funzionare contro il coronavirus


Come selezionare i farmaci di contrasto più efficaci contro il coronavirus: Annalisa Chiusolo, giovane studiosa di farmacologia, ha intuito il meccanismo d'azione del Sars-Cov-2




www.iltempo.it


----------



## Michi

Bill13 said:


> Could be a coincidence, but maybe not?


Or could be a coincidence. The jury is still out on this one. It doesn't look like we have enough data either way just yet.


----------



## chinacats

WildBoar said:


> Well they sure as heck won't compliment the US since we pulled funding. They probably figure what would be better than giving a slap on the back to a country that did the exact opposite.
> 
> Politics is everywhere, and the WHO is very much tied up in it.



Doing the exact opposite...having a plan vs not?

The fact that their plan values $ over life is a mere technicality...


----------



## HRC_64

Fun times...








A mass breakdown over the limits of science has plunged us into post-Orwellian nightmare


As humanity battles existential crisis, our history threatens to take a terrifying turn




www.telegraph.co.uk
 






> In the absence of science that does not yet exist, lockdown becomes an ethical argument. Is it _The Right Thing_ to compromise the quality of ten lives to prolong the life of a single person? Is it_ The Right Thing_ to divert all your resources to save the life of a Covid-19 sufferer, suspecting, if not knowing for sure, that the action's cost is an avoidable cancer death? Leaders must not be afraid to tell the truth: the only way to solve the complex Covid crisis is to tackle these basic dilemmas.


----------



## Michi

HRC_64 said:


> Fun times...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A mass breakdown over the limits of science has plunged us into post-Orwellian nightmare
> 
> 
> As humanity battles existential crisis, our history threatens to take a terrifying turn
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.telegraph.co.uk


These are indeed thorny questions. I have no real answer. Having seen what happened in Italy, Spain, and New York, I'm quite sure that it's worth paying a high price in order to avoid that many deaths. But, yes, there may be a point where the price gets too high. On the other hand, without all those restrictions, we'd have a very much larger number of deaths by now


----------



## Bert2368

One way or another, deaths in several heavily populated areas are showing to be way up as death certificates come in. Would like such graphs to have NUMBERS attached to both axis.









U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests (Published 2020)


In seven hard-hit states, total deaths are nearly 50 percent higher than normal, according to new C.D.C. statistics, suggesting that the virus has killed far more people than the number in official counts.



www.nytimes.com











When this started, the first thought I had was that it might be bad for us, but it was going to be a lot worse for less developed areas. Ecuador is showing a particularly awful manifestation of this with 3X the average death rate for entire country, possibly up to 15X what the government could count for some weeks. And the totals won't ever really be known for much of the world, no infrastructure, resources or time to count them all.









Ecuador’s Death Toll During Outbreak Is Among the Worst in the World (Published 2020)


A New York Times analysis suggests that Ecuador’s death toll is 15 times higher than its official tally of coronavirus deaths, highlighting the damage the virus can do in developing countries.




www.nytimes.com










I thought the virus response was awful because I couldn't get a paycheck until I saw the people who couldn't even get put in a morgue.


----------



## ian

Bert2368 said:


> One way or another, deaths in several heavily populated areas are showing to be way up as death certificates come in. Would like such graphs to have NUMBERS attached to both axis.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests (Published 2020)
> 
> 
> In seven hard-hit states, total deaths are nearly 50 percent higher than normal, according to new C.D.C. statistics, suggesting that the virus has killed far more people than the number in official counts.
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 78821



I assume the horizontal lines on the y-axis are 2000, 4000, 6000, no?


----------



## chinacats

ian said:


> I assume the horizontal lines on the y-axis are 2000, 4000, 6000, no?



Pretty sure they're different by state so they could use same size graph (population varies by area).


----------



## ian

chinacats said:


> Pretty sure they're different by state so they could use same size graph (population varies by area).



I was referring to the NY and NYC graphs. In the article, the Maryland graph (for example) seems to have the y-axis scaled by 2. But it's still labeled... 3000 vs 6000 for the highest mark.


----------



## HRC_64

x








The Controversial Experiments and Wuhan Lab Suspected of Starting Pandemic


After reporting that Covid-19 occurred naturally, U.S. intelligence modified its stance to say it might have leaked from a lab.




www.newsweek.com







> The circumstantial evidence is strong enough to warrant putting the lab's programs and practices at the heart of the investigation. And it's worth looking anew at whether scientists, in their efforts to protect the public from the threat of natural pathogens, overreached.



Its worth pointing out that this article describes why alot of scientists has a conflict of interest in evaluating the plausibility of "addicent theory"...

Namely, shutting down "Accident Risk" means shutting down the work that they do.

And their funding.

In any event, readers of this thread will note this is a much more professional discsussion of topics and concerns expressed earlier in this thread -- eg it details the h5n1 "gain of function" controversy and details earlier.

It also documents previous human-coronavirus "Lab Leaks".


----------



## Bill13

Satire, so if you don't enjoy satire don't click on the link.

YouTube Removing All Videos That Don't Begin With The Chinese National Anthem


----------



## ian

Interesting to see a satire site with a conservative twist. There’s some funny stuff on there.









Inspiring: Celebrities Spell Out 'We're All In This Together' With Their Yachts


MALIBU, CA—Many described the scene as breathtaking or awe-inspiring. Others were so touched they couldn't find the words to communicate how they felt. Most simply wept.




babylonbee.com


----------



## Bill13

I shared the boat one with my extended family, and there is a wide spectrum of political views. This one to was safe to share also.









Trump Said 'Good Morning.' Here's How 12 Different News Outlets Covered His Controversial Claim


At a press conference this morning, Trump said "Good morning." There was an immediate flood of news articles about it. Here are the headlines covering his controversial statement from twelve different news outlets:




babylonbee.com


----------



## Luftmensch

ian said:


> It’s true that this attitude drives me up the wall, and not just because academics is my reality.
> 
> More because yes, academics is not reality, but it tries to model reality*, and the people who say things like that are implying that models have no use and that they should just use their intuition or whatever, which is misguided. I guess it’s not surprising to hear such an anti-science, anti-expert message coming from two urgent care entrepreneurs who are publicly questioning the guidelines of the experts.
> 
> Ok, but now you just got me all riled up. I don’t actually have a strong opinion on the content of the video.
> 
> 
> ———
> 
> 
> * my personal academics does not model anything, and is completely useless.



It is anti-intellectual rubbish and drives me up the wall! Most complex things we enjoy are derivatives of the academic process - except perhaps art, entertainment and sport.

I don't think people even know how cut-throat, underfunded and high-pressure academia can be. It is far from that negative stereotype of the tenured professor twiddling his thumbs whilst pontificating at his oak desk in an ivory tower until the clock ticks over to 4pm. Most academics are striving to be good educators and experts in their field whilst managing shoe-string budgets and writing grant after grant to haul in some funding. Not to mention an increasing pressure to be public communicators. There are a lot of different skills required to be good at that job. And those are the people who rise to the top! In this increasingly global world research positions are extremely competitive and full-time staff positions even more so! There is a generation of younger researchers who live from short-term contract to short-term contract without getting a foot in the door of permanency/security. 

... but what do these people know about the 'real' world they study...


----------



## Luftmensch

WildBoar said:


> Talked to a friend of mine earlier today. His 82 year old dad had a stroke back in early February. Or did he? He has been having a rocky recovery, where some days he is fine, and some days he has impaired motor abilities. His lab work, etc. showed no signs of a stroke. Turns out my friend's sister was sick in late January with the flu, although she tested negative. Her Dr figured it was a false negative and sent her on her way. She had a couple fairly bad days, then recovered. So then their father (the parents live near my friend's sister) started feeling poorly, with headaches, sore throat, etc. He wasn't too bad for a couple of days, but then he got a lot worse and had motor issues and difficulties breathing, and he spent 3 days in the hospital. They diagnosed it as a small stroke, but in follow-on testing, etc. later in February they could not find any evidence of a stroke. He started to improve, and get back movement abilities, although it was/ has been very up and down. The mother than appeared to get a mild case of the flu. And my friend, who had been over at his parent's house helping to finish the basement, felt sick for a week, mainly with breathing difficulties. Looking back at it all now, especially with the new 'symptoms' confirmed that include headaches, they think they all may have had the virus. They are going to see if the father and/ or sister can get tested to see if they show evidence, such as antibodies. Not sure if a Dr will give the okay for the testing though.
> 
> This is in the DC/ Northern Virginia area.



Hey @WildBoar....

Sorry to hear about your friends dad. I am glad nobody's health deteriorated deeply. I couldn't help but think. You know there is evidence that COVID19 can cause strokes (in small numbers):

Research suggests coronavirus can cause blood clots and may lead to strokes
Coronavirus: many patients reporting neurological symptoms
COVID-19 Thickens Blood, Causes Strokes In Some Patients With Mild Symptoms


----------



## WildBoar

Understood. But they could not find evidence that he actually had a stroke. They did see evidence that he had a very minor one some years ago, though. I have not heard any updates, so i am not sure if any of them were able to get tested for antibodies yet.


----------



## Bill13

A nursing home tries HC plus Z. 









FOX 26 gets unprecedented access to Texas' 1st nursing home to treat COVID-19 with Hydroxychloroquine


Nursing home officials at The Resort at Texas City discuss administering the experimental COVID-19 treatment.




www.fox7austin.com


----------



## Bill13

Another study examining European shut downs. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1.full.pdf

"Our results show a general decay trend in the growth rates and reproduction numbers two to three weeks before the full lockdown policies would be expected to have visible eﬀects".


----------



## parbaked




----------



## WildBoar

Bill13 said:


> Another study examining European shut downs. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1.full.pdf
> 
> "Our results show a general decay trend in the growth rates and reproduction numbers two to three weeks before the full lockdown policies would be expected to have visible eﬀects".


I had to go pick up a carton of fruit from Keany late this morning, so Leah and Luca came with me so we could try and see the flyover. The spot I wanted to stop at along the parkway was closed off by the police, so I headed across the 14th St bridge into DC. Holy crap, it was nuts there. Thousands of people all up and down the Mall. Less than 30% were wearing face masks. We stayed in the car (as we had intended to do, anyway) except right as the jets were approaching, and we hopped out, watched for the whole 5-10 seconds that you could see anything, and got back in the car. We did not go anywhere near other people. It was a flyover to salute the medical workers, yet I would not be surprised if it winds up sending dozens more to the hospitals over the next week or so.

Basically many people are idiots about this, and the peak in the DC area is not going to happen for a while.


----------



## TheNewMexican

I get it...... half the people sent home from where I work have made this excuse or that to go back because they want to feel "essential".

If anyone was wondering about the Achilles heal of the states...... germ warfare would be it.

Per the original topic, I'm still working as much as ever but the nice thing is the morning / afternoon 45 minute work commute got cut out. So lunch time I get to take walks with my boy and evenings / weekends are spent making garden boxes, framing in that closet I've meant to for the last couple of years and basically enjoying the spring that is slowly creeping in here.

Have a freezer half full, a 5 gallon milk can full of flour, another full of beans a couple of gallon milk cans with coffee, sugar and rice. Have always been kinda old-school that way. Both the wife and I are somewhat in the middle between Introvert and Extrovert. We have no problem just being together as a family and have enjoyed the time to be together.

Hope everyone is safe out there.........


----------



## Matus

An interesting study made in Germany on was just published (in English). They have tested over 900 people (small community of Heisenberg - on of the first hot spots in Germany) on infection and antibodies and went the full length with data analysis. It takes more than just a few minutes ti read the relevant bits (and get through all the numbers): https://www.ukbonn.de/C12582D3002FD21D/vwLookupDownloads/Streeck_et_al_Infection_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf/$FILE/Streeck_et_al_Infection_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf


----------



## Michi

This article illustrates how much fatalities are under-reported in various countries:

46,000 Missing Deaths: Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Outbreak


----------



## HRC_64

On the topic of under-counting...this is interesting:
*Coronavirus: le professeur Cohen affirme qu'il y avait un cas de Covid-19 en France dès le 27 décembre*








Coronavirus: le professeur Cohen affirme qu'il y avait un cas de Covid-19 en France dès le 27 décembre


Ce chef de réanimation de plusieurs hôpitaux franciliens a repris les tests PCR réalisés sur plusieurs patients atteints d'une pneumonie entre décembre et janvier dernier. Un homme, aujourd'hui en bonne santé, a été identifié comme porteur du Covid-19.




www.bfmtv.com





France scientists show first patient died (in France) as early as 27 december...


----------



## HRC_64

Compare timeline with Wikipedia:
First Death Jan 9th: In Wuhan


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic#Deaths




> The first confirmed death was in Wuhan on 9 January 2020.[364] The first death outside China occurred on 1 February in the Philippines,[365] and the first death outside Asia was in France on 14 February.[366]



Here is WHO on Jan 14th: No Human to Human transmission


The only reason to downplay the risk of contagion after first death is to maniuplate the risk models. WHO tweet seems like PR managment.


----------



## Luftmensch

TheNewMexican said:


> Per the original topic, I'm still working as much as ever but the nice thing is the morning / afternoon 45 minute work commute got cut out. So lunch time I get to take walks with my boy and evenings / weekends are spent making garden boxes, framing in that closet I've meant to for the last couple of years and basically enjoying the spring that is slowly creeping in here.



How lovely...  I hope your employer has the generosity to continue allowing you more work flexibility in the future!


----------



## Bill13

Well Big Pharma benefits from the continued lockdowns.









Generic Drug Decisions Stall as Virus Forces Patent Court Delays


Patients with cancer, kidney disease, and other ailments could pay higher drug prices for months longer than they otherwise would thanks to court delays caused by the coronavirus outbreak.




news.bloomberglaw.com


----------



## Michi

It is interesting to look at the 3-day average of new infections. Check out the graph for Germany here:









Germany COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer


Germany Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




www.worldometers.info





There are these spikes in the infection rate that are spaced one week apart. You can see the same thing in a number of other countries, for example Sweden, the US, Belgium, Italy, and others.

My gut feeling is that the spikes are caused by increased social contact on weekends.


----------



## Barmoley

At least in Los Angeles, the spikes are caused by the weekend, but not because of increased social gathering or at least it is not mainly due to that, but because data collected by different cities in LA county doesn't get reported the same day over weekends. You tend to see drops and then jumps when the data that was sitting at individual collection sites gets sent and combined with the rest of the county. I suspect similar happens in many places.


----------



## inferno

Michi said:


> It is interesting to look at the 3-day average of new infections. Check out the graph for Germany here:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Germany COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
> 
> 
> Germany Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.worldometers.info
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There are these spikes in the infection rate that are spaced one week apart. You can see the same thing in a number of other countries, for example Sweden, the US, Belgium, Italy, and others.
> 
> My gut feeling is that the spikes are caused by increased social contact on weekends.



yeah its called "weekend", it basically means people dont work during certain days  

so whatever happened from friday afternoon to monday morning will not show until tuesday some time. 

and its also about 1 week of lag in the system so what you see today tuesday is what happend during the weekend, one week ago.


----------



## McMan

Michi said:


> It is interesting to look at the 3-day average of new infections. Check out the graph for Germany here:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Germany COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
> 
> 
> Germany Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.worldometers.info
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There are these spikes in the infection rate that are spaced one week apart. You can see the same thing in a number of other countries, for example Sweden, the US, Belgium, Italy, and others.
> 
> My gut feeling is that the spikes are caused by increased social contact on weekends.


Are churches still open?


----------



## M1k3

What was it, last Monday and Tuesday, or the week before, they said they had a huge backlog get done and reported. For Los Angeles.


----------



## Barmoley

M1k3 said:


> What was it, last Monday and Tuesday, or the week before, they said they had a huge backlog get done and reported. For Los Angeles.


Yeah, it is more of a data collection/reporting issue rather than disease numbers issue. You can see it by the numbers going up and down with the average of the picks and valleys at about the same level. If it was a true increase in sick due to more people getting infected you would expect to see different graphs.


----------



## chinacats

Michi said:


> It is interesting to look at the 3-day average of new infections. Check out the graph for Germany here:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Germany COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
> 
> 
> Germany Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.worldometers.info
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There are these spikes in the infection rate that are spaced one week apart. You can see the same thing in a number of other countries, for example Sweden, the US, Belgium, Italy, and others.
> 
> My gut feeling is that the spikes are caused by increased social contact on weekends.



Yes, reporting as well a testing lapses. Best to watch the seven day trends.


----------



## Dave Martell

Edit: video removed by YouTube for "violating their terms of service". Yeah, I bet it does!


----------



## Michi

chinacats said:


> Yes, reporting as well a testing lapses. Best to watch the seven day trends.


Yes, I think that makes sense. More likely to reflect the variations in number of tests than any real change in the infection rate.


----------



## Bert2368

Just when you thought it couldn't get any more exciting?

Apparently the virus dammages peoples kidneys and may cause male sterility. 

Although pneumonia is most visible symptom, even people with mild cases show more indicators of non preexisting kidney dammage than found in people with the familiar varieties of seasonal flues. 

The authors go so far as to state that in one study the degree of kidney dammage/impairment a patient had accumulated before the viral infection was the best single indicator of likelihood for a fatal outcome- And here I had been worrying about my asthma and preexisting lung dammage.

The male sterility aspect will only really be known down the road but the autopsie findings and changes in hormone levels, lack of sperm & etc. are suggestive of this.





__





The need for urogenital tract monitoring in COVID-19 - Nature Reviews Urology


Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, which invades a cell through binding to the ACE2 receptor and TMPRSS2 priming. Patients with severe disease predominantly present with pneumonia-related symptoms. However, evidence suggests that...




www.nature.com


----------



## inferno

dont worry bert, its just a common bat virus... no lab product at all.


----------



## Bert2368

inferno said:


> dont worry bert, its just a common bat virus... no lab product at all.



So what was the pangolin, chopped liver?


----------



## Bill13

This is a good look.


----------



## Dave Martell

Bill13 said:


> This is a good look.


----------



## inferno

democracy is 2 wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for dinner.
liberty is a well armed lamb contesting the vote


----------



## Michi

Bill13 said:


> This is a good look.


That is shocking


----------



## chinacats

Bill13 said:


> This is a good look.




Why isn't anyone there wearing a mask?


----------



## Bert2368

Dave Martell said:


>



NTXT


----------



## Bert2368

chinacats said:


> Why isn't anyone there wearing a mask?



Because Oz managed to control spread with testing, contact tracing and social distancing.









Why coronavirus face masks are worn in some countries but not Australia


Some countries are wearing face masks as part of efforts to combat the coronavirus. Should we be wearing face masks en masse in Australia?




thenewdaily.com.au


----------



## Dhoff

One must wonder why the hell we do not autopsy people dying of COVID-19. Why in the hell not obtain all the knowledge possible as how the disease causes death....


----------



## Michi

Dhoff said:


> One must wonder why the hell we do not autopsy people dying of COVID-19. Why in the hell not obtain all the knowledge possible as how the disease causes death....


Autopsies have been done. I don't know how many and in which countries. For one example, see here:









COVID-19: What the Autopsies Reveal


Pathologists are starting to get a closer look at the damage that COVID-19 does to the body by carefully examining the internal organs of people who have died from the novel coronavirus.




www.scientificamerican.com


----------



## Luftmensch

Bert2368 said:


> So what was the pangolin



 long time fan of Ze Frank


----------



## Luftmensch

Bill13 said:


> This is a good look.  https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1259081832085090305



Oh man... What a messy scene. I have sympathy for both sides.

I admire people who are principled enough to risk arrest while protesting a cause. Society needs this (in a non-violent way). The laws in N.S.W have gone too far in making certain forms of protest illegal or difficult. Police on the street are there to enforce laws (instituted rightly, or wrong). I would not be surprised if the protester was given ample 'outs' (e.g. to move along). Bringing a child to a protest where you may (or are likely to) be arrested is inviting unnecessary drama and manipulative.

It is unwise to ignore the advice of police. It is a crime to resist arrest in N.S.W (and I am sure many jurisdictions). You don't get to decide if you are under arrest or not. If a police officer has declared you are under arrest, not complying is a terrible strategy. Save your arguments for when the lawyers arrive.



(I am saying all of this within the context of policing in my state. I acknowledge that the degree to which corruption and violence influences police is not uniform across the world. Whilst there is illegal behaviour in N.S.W police and some officers operate outside the law, I'd say it is a benign organisation by global standards.)


----------



## HRC_64

Dhoff said:


> One must wonder why the hell we do not autopsy people dying of COVID-19. Why in the hell not obtain all the knowledge possible as how the disease causes death....



Imagine the Body is full on biohazard 

IIRC think the protocol is for BSL-3 if the virus isn't contained in test tube or whatever.


----------



## inferno

hey gyze. 

some people at work got tested for "coronavirus antibodies"
the test tests for igg and igm antibodies.









Immunoglobulin M - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org








__





Immunoglobulin G - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





they say this on the site:

This test has not been reviewed by FDA
Negative results do not rule out SARS-CoV-2 infection. If acute infection is suspected, direct testing for SARS-CoV-2 is necessary.
Results from antibody testing should not be used to diagnose or exclude SARS-CoV-2.
Positive results may be due to past or present infection with non-SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus strains, such as coronavirus HKU1, NL63, OC43, or 229E. 
how convenient....

COVID-19 IgM/IgG Rapid Test – BioMedomics Inc. 

lol so its just BS, all this crap. and it could not even theoretically test for "covid19 antibodies" even if they wanted. i need to cash in on this too.


----------



## podzap

Dhoff said:


> One must wonder why the hell we do not autopsy people dying of COVID-19. Why in the hell not obtain all the knowledge possible as how the disease causes death....



We already know precisely how the disease causes death - pulmonary failure caused by viral assault.

Was there another question?


----------



## Dhoff

podzap said:


> pulmonary



That was kind of arrogant way to phrase it mate. Especially considering there is signs it may be causing clots, damage to kidneys and heart which may be permanant even in patients that have "recovered".


----------



## Michi

Michi said:


> Regardless, it seems bloody obvious that Australia has managed to very effectively put the lid on the infections, and Sweden has not.
> […]
> But we don't need to argue about it. All we need to do is wait.


It looks like the Swedish approach isn't working out so well, after all:









Sweden’s Covid-19 policy is a model for the right. It’s also a deadly folly | Nick Cohen


The Swedes were the Brexiters’ poster nation, but now have Europe’s worst death rate




www.theguardian.com





One interesting thing I have noticed among the "open up and revive the economy" proponents is that they are using a straw man argument: "if we didn't force everyone to isolate, things would be just fine, except maybe a few extra deaths."

This is wrong on three counts:

There aren't a few extra deaths, but a _lot_ of them.
The idea the economy would be ticking along just as usual if only we had no lock-down restrictions is completely naïve.
The economic cost of all the dead people exceeds the economic damage caused by lock-down by a _lot_.
Does anyone really believe that, if we just "let her rip", people will continue to do what they normally do? Go to work every day, ignoring the fact that people are dropping like flies around them?

In reality, people will self-isolate—no matter what their government tells them to do—once things get bad enough. Impose no lock-down and, before very long at all, 20% or 30% (or more) of the population will have contracted the disease and missed two to four weeks at work. In turn, people get more careful, avoid contact with others, go out less, etc. Which means that all the same businesses go bust that go bust with a lock-down, such as restaurants, taxi services, airlines, etc.

Whether the government implements a lock-down or not, the result of the pandemic is a trashed economy, regardless. Except, with a lock-down, there are a lot fewer dead people.









Economists back social distancing 34-9 in new poll


The economists who support the use of social distancing measures to slow the spread of COVID-19 are not only in the majority, they are also more certain of their opinions than those who do not.




theconversation.com












The calculus of death shows the COVID lock-down is clearly worth the cost


Will the number of lives saved as a result of the COVID-19 restrictions be outweighed by the deaths from an economic recession? This is a vital question to ans




micky.com.au


----------



## Stewart122

podzap said:


> We already know precisely how the disease causes death - pulmonary failure caused by viral assault.
> 
> Was there another question?



Not so much viral assault ->current understanding is that acute respiratory distress syndrome as a result of cytokine storm +/- multi organ damage.


----------



## Stewart122

Bert2368 said:


> Because Oz managed to control spread with testing, contact tracing and social distancing.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Why coronavirus face masks are worn in some countries but not Australia
> 
> 
> Some countries are wearing face masks as part of efforts to combat the coronavirus. Should we be wearing face masks en masse in Australia?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thenewdaily.com.au



+Early border closing + luck. We're lucky that by being an island we can cut off incoming cases. Majority of our cases were from overseas so when we closed borders our cases dropped massively and thus we only have our few community transmission cases.


----------



## Luftmensch

labor of love said:


> Has the topic of supplementation come up yet? What are some options for over the counter supplements that can help against corona?
> Yes yes I’m aware about immune system boosting foods and other dietary measures that can be taken. Diet is not the question I’m asking about.



Hey @labor of love, I know this is a long time in the past now. I listened to a Joe Rogan* podcast with Dr Rhonda Patrick on the weekend:



If you like podcasts and have the time, you may enjoy it. I hesitate to recommend it because I think she is speaking outside of her direct field of expertise. I also think there is a bunch of psuedo-science and preliminary research being discussed. Eitherway... she is eloquent and says some interesting things about Vitamin D. I thought you might be interested.

With social distancing I am spending a $hit-load of time indoors. It made me consider the possible merits of Vitamin D supplements.



* Sorry couldn't help with the additional commentary... he can be 'ok' when he speaks to experts


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> It looks like the Swedish approach isn't working out so well, after all:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sweden’s Covid-19 policy is a model for the right. It’s also a deadly folly | Nick Cohen
> 
> 
> The Swedes were the Brexiters’ poster nation, but now have Europe’s worst death rate
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> One interesting thing I have noticed among the "open up and revive the economy" proponents is that they are using a straw man argument: "if we didn't force everyone to isolate, things would be just fine, except maybe a few extra deaths."
> 
> This is wrong on three counts:
> 
> There aren't a few extra deaths, but a _lot_ of them.
> The idea the economy would be ticking along just as usual if only we had no lock-down restrictions is completely naïve.
> The economic cost of all the dead people exceeds the economic damage caused by lock-down by a _lot_.
> Does anyone really believe that, if we just "let her rip", people will continue to do what they normally do? Go to work every day, ignoring the fact that people are dropping like flies around them?
> 
> In reality, people will self-isolate—no matter what their government tells them to do—once things get bad enough. Impose no lock-down and, before very long at all, 20% or 30% (or more) of the population will have contracted the disease and missed two to four weeks at work. In turn, people get more careful, avoid contact with others, go out less, etc. Which means that all the same businesses go bust that go bust with a lock-down, such as restaurants, taxi services, airlines, etc.
> 
> Whether the government implements a lock-down or not, the result of the pandemic is a trashed economy, regardless. Except, with a lock-down, there are a lot fewer dead people.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Economists back social distancing 34-9 in new poll
> 
> 
> The economists who support the use of social distancing measures to slow the spread of COVID-19 are not only in the majority, they are also more certain of their opinions than those who do not.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> theconversation.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The calculus of death shows the COVID lock-down is clearly worth the cost
> 
> 
> Will the number of lives saved as a result of the COVID-19 restrictions be outweighed by the deaths from an economic recession? This is a vital question to ans
> 
> 
> 
> 
> micky.com.au



 

We definitely sit next to each-other in the same media bubble. I read both the G and Conversation articles before you posted... ☺


----------



## ian

Luftmensch said:


> We definitely sit next to each-other in the same media bubble. I read both the G and Conversation articles before you posted... ☺



From the article: “apart from Trump’s America and Sweden.”

Is that what we’re called now?


----------



## Michi

ian said:


> Is that what we’re called now?


I’m afraid so


----------



## inferno

Michi said:


> The economic cost of all the dead people exceeds the economic damage caused by lock-down by a _lot_.



no. all the dead people are senior citizens in the care homes. 80-90-100 years old so in fact they only COST money.
its a win-win situation for the gov.


----------



## inferno

all the people dying from corona in sweden are the elderly and sick. and since taking care of these people are handled by the lowest iq folks (not very well paying jobs) its not hard to imagine how this could spread in the care homes. and this is what has happened. simple as that.

these people were doomed already by jan1.


----------



## chinacats

inferno said:


> all the people dying from corona in sweden are the elderly and sick. and since taking care of these people are handled by the lowest iq folks (not very well paying jobs) its not hard to imagine how this could spread in the care homes. and this is what has happened. simple as that.
> 
> these people were doomed already by jan1.



Love the concern for your fellow man...***?


----------



## inferno

i'm just telling you why there is so many people dying here.

there is much disinfo about why people are dying here so i thought i'd tell people why its is the way it is.

we pay the most tax or at least top 3 in the entire world. and we have the shittiest elder care too. and it has been like that for 20 years at least.

let me tell you a little story....

before the corona the some communes (sweden is divided in several hundred "communes" (kommuner)) said that they had to turn down the heat in the elder care homes, to save money. and "they can use blankets to stay warm" (not kidding).

why would they need to "save money" now again? well, because they agreed to house/feed/care for millions of immigrants. and they dont work...
so money dries up fast. but its for a "noble" cause right... for who??

this is how it works. now you can imagine how the ****** the elder care is. and its not only that. its just the tip of the iceberg. but no one wants go there right.. you know all the hundreds of annual bombings, daily shootings, stabbings and the goddamn hushed up rape epidemic (and this a 10 million people country, aaaand, its not iraq). yeah lets not go there. scary ****.

its just the tip of the ****ing iceberg i tell you.


----------



## Michi

inferno said:


> no. all the dead people are senior citizens in the care homes. 80-90-100 years old so in fact they only COST money.
> its a win-win situation for the gov.


Me bad. I forgot that older people are disposable and don’t count.

Be sure to tell that to your parents, grandparents, uncles, and aunts!


----------



## inferno

Michi said:


> Me bad. I forgot that older people are disposable and don’t count.
> 
> Be sure to tell that to your parents, grandparents, uncles, and aunts!



i'm not the one deeming them disposable. way above my pay grade. you do the math.


----------



## WildBoar

Actually 20-somethings are the most expensive. Many of them will go on to get married and divorced, and that can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars per couple. Some culling of 20-something year-olds should do wonder for some economies


----------



## M1k3

WildBoar said:


> Actually 20-somethings are the most expensive. Many of them will go on to get married and divorced, and that can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars per couple. Some culling of 20-something year-olds should do wonder for some economies


And let's not forget the under legal working age demographic. All of them are lazy bums! Don't pay any taxes or go to work and expect to be fed, sheltered AND educated.


----------



## podzap

Stewart122 said:


> Not so much viral assault ->current understanding is that acute respiratory distress syndrome as a result of cytokine storm +/- multi organ damage.



Well, yeah, and SOME men do seem to be more susceptible to cyto storms than women because testosterone.


----------



## panda

inferno said:


> i'm not the one deeming them disposable. way above my pay grade. you do the math.


The disposable ones are the people that were hoarding toilet paper


----------



## jacko9

We have a pandemic that is killing people of all ages and we don't have a plan to deal with it. We have no vaccine, no miracle cure, nothing but body bags and a lot of BS. We as a nation are not dealing with the pandemic except to put our heads in a hole and hope that it goes away. That's just my optimistic view of things so not to worry.


----------



## parbaked

panda said:


> The disposable ones are the people that were hoarding bamboo shoots


FTFY


----------



## HRC_64

jacko9 said:


> We have a pandemic that is killing people of all ages and we don't have a plan to deal with it. We have no vaccine, no miracle cure, nothing but body bags and a lot of BS. We as a nation are not dealing with the pandemic except to put our heads in a hole and hope that it goes away. That's just my optimistic view of things so not to worry.



There is no "science" to fall back on...hence its a hard prblem"

You have a virus with a infection fatality rate of ~0.15%, abiout the same order of magnitude % (50% worse) than the flu (outside of institutional settings).

Indi just announced they re lifting lockdown, the correlation of "uncorrelated" what should be public health decisions is insane...people are just copying everyone else...all the lockdowns started at once, and all the lockdowns are being lifted at once...

Look at the numbers in australia or new zealand, there is no realationship between these people and anywhere else (since they are islands) but they are still debating if they should stay locked up...

Meanwhile, in the USA masssive % of deaths in a tiny % of counties...so the data don't scale ...cannot assume place x looks like place Y



> "Fourteen counties in New York, Michigan, Louisiana and Washington accounted for about half of the nation’s coronavirus-related deaths through mid-April."


14 counties vs 435 congressional districts for scale...


> There are still more than 180 counties across 25 states that have yet to report a positive case


180 vs 435 congressional disctrics = no cases


> Of the 25 rural counties with the highest per capita case rates, 20 have a meatpacking plant or prison where the virus took hold and spread with abandon, then leaped into the community when workers took it home.


link>
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/24/coronavirus-rural-america-outbreaks/
These are hard problems...


----------



## jacko9

HRC_64 said:


> There is no "science" to fall back on...hence its a hard prblem"
> 
> You have a virus with a infection fatality rate of ~0.15%, abiout the same order of magnitude % (50% worse) than the flu (outside of institutional settings).
> 
> Indi just announced they re lifting lockdown, the correlation of "uncorrelated" what should be public health decisions is insane...people are just copying everyone else...all the lockdowns started at once, and all the lockdowns are being lifted at once...
> 
> Look at the numbers in australia or new zealand, there is no realationship between these people and anywhere else (since they are islands) but they are still debating if they should stay locked up...
> 
> Meanwhile, in the USA masssive % of deaths in a tiny % of counties...so the data don't scale ...cannot assume place x looks like place Y
> 
> 
> 14 counties vs 435 congressional districts for scale...
> 
> 180 vs 435 congressional disctrics = no cases
> 
> link>
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/24/coronavirus-rural-america-outbreaks/
> These are hard problems...



With little or no testing we don't have any reported cases in some counties. How many deaths are acceptable to you 100,000 , 200,000, 300,000 or more? We have no plan and the virus is spreading slowly but surely. Dare I say it again we have no plan and the politicians are not listening to the scientists.


----------



## rob

jacko9 said:


> With little or no testing we don't have any reported cases in some counties. How many deaths are acceptable to you 100,000 , 200,000, 300,000 or more? We have no plan and the virus is spreading slowly but surely. Dare I say it again we have no plan and the politicians are not listening to the scientists.


I feel for you guys Jacko, i noticed California had the highest (3000) number of new case in the country yesterday. Please take care.


----------



## M1k3

rob said:


> I feel for you guys Jacko, i noticed California had the highest (3000) number of new case in the country yesterday. Please take care.


A lot of people in Los Angeles county went to nearby counties or Arizona over the weekend....


----------



## M1k3

And during the week leading up to the weekend...


----------



## Barmoley

One of the problems is that even the "scientists" don't seem to have a good idea how it spreads or anything else really. It was thought that people without symptoms can spread it as easily as people with symptoms, which never made much sense, but "scientists" said so. Now, it seems that people without symptoms might spread it, but might not or they might spread it at a much lower rate. It was thought that it transmits easily outdoors, so they closed beaches and trails, now they say it might not spread easily outdoors and can't survive on surfaces as long as thought originally. We didn't see an explosion of cases when they opened beaches and everyone and their mother went to the beach while the government panicked and closed beaches again. No explosion of cases due to that which makes it seem that maybe it was a dumb idea in the first place. It is a new disease, so no wonder it is tough, but everyone who says listen to the scientists needs to realize that they don't seem to have much more clue than the rest of us, at least not yet and definitely not 2-3 month ago. Look at what the scientists are saying "it may", "it is possible", "it is thought" not very definitive at all. I get they need to cover their asses just in case, but it really is not clear what the right course of action is. Should nations that have no cases act like the nations that have a lot, probably not, what if they have land borders, who knows very hard problems for all with no clear "right" answers.


----------



## jacko9

Remember that the scientists are behind because they dismantled the pandemic response team that was in place to deal with issues like this. Also consider that daily briefings as far back as January or even December warned that this was breaking out in China and almost a half million people came to the USA from Wuhan before we stopped it sometime in March (kinda like closing the barn door after the cows are already out). Again I have to keep coming back that we have no National Plan to deal with this disease and it is going to come back it's just a matter of when and how hard.


----------



## ian

Barmoley said:


> One of the problems is that even the "scientists" don't seem to have a good idea how it spreads or anything else really.



Sorry to harp on something small, but the quotes bug me here. A scientist is someone who spends their life thinking seriously about science. The accuracy of the title doesn’t have anything to do with whether a current best guess is correct or not. To put quotes around it indicates that the scientists are not serious professionals doing the best they can with available data. I normally wouldn’t bat an eye, but we’re living in a time when there’s so much anti-expert rhetoric floating around, so I’m on a bit of a hair trigger. 



Barmoley said:


> I get they need to cover their asses just in case, but it really is not clear what the right course of action is.



I don’t think this is about covering their asses. This is how scientists talk. If we don’t know something for certain, we don’t speak in absolutes. As a mathematician, I’m perhaps an extreme example of this, since I’ll never say something’s certain unless I have a complete proof that it is, even if 100,000 tests of the hypothesis seem to uphold it.

As to the general question about whether to take their advice, I’d still maintain that someone who spends their life thinking about something probably has a better idea of it than someone who doesn’t. That doesn’t mean that everything they hypothesize will turn out to be true, but you’re still better off listening to the experts than yourself. Plus, even disregarding expertise, it’s so easy to rationalize irresponsible behavior in a time like this, because we’re so understandably desperate for freedom. That’s one reason why we need some expert direction, and why “everyone just try to figure it out for yourself” isn’t an effective approach.


----------



## Michi

Barmoley said:


> One of the problems is that even the "scientists" don't seem to have a good idea how it spreads or anything else really.


I would strongly disagree with that. We have quite a good idea of how it spreads. Mostly by droplet infection between persons in close contact. Probably also to some degree by picking up the virus from surfaces that someone sneezed or coughed onto.

It appears to be well established that asymptomatic people can spread the virus, so I don't understand why you raised that point.



Barmoley said:


> everyone who says listen to the scientists needs to realize that they don't seem to have much more clue than the rest of us


That statement strikes me as truly unlikely. These are people who spend their lives studying viruses, working on epidemiology, have come up with vaccines, got HIV under control, have eradicated (or nearly so) smallpox and polio, and so on. Scientists have forgotten more about their field of expertise than the rest of the population put together has ever learned. I don't understand why you would want to just sweep that under the carpet, or disregard their advice.

As @ian said, scientists don't always have all the answers, and answers are rarely absolute. Instead, scientists run experiments, observe, formulate hypotheses based on the observations, test the hypotheses and, little by little, gain a deeper understanding of whatever puzzle they are looking at. All the while subjecting their work to peer review, so other scientists can try to replicate the results, and check whether there are flaws in the reasoning or experimental setup.

This is how science works. Little by little, in the open. This is why we have cars, aeroplanes, computers, modern surgery, vaccines, cancer treatments, mobile phones, Google maps, PM steel knives, and ten million other things without which modern life would be impossible.

Last time I looked, most people were quite happy to see their doctor to get advice and treatment for whatever ailment they have. And they don't mind at all showing up at a hospital to get patched back up after a car accident or to get that chemotherapy that might save their life. People also seem quite content to use their mobile phone to navigate to a destination, or use the weather report to find out about a hurricane before it actually hits them. None of these things would be possible without some very advanced science and engineering, from microbiology, to general relativity, to rocketry and satellites.

As to what to do about the virus, scientists have indeed a very good idea of what to do: _isolate_. In the absence of a treatment or a vaccine, that is the next best thing we can do to stop it from spreading.

We know that this works. See Australia and New Zealand, for example. These two countries have 4 deaths per million population. For comparison, the US has 304 per million (that's 76 times more), and Sweden has 409 (over 100 times more). For countries with a sizeable population, Sweden currently has the 6th-highest death rate in the world, after Belgium, Spain, the UK, Italy, and France.

Scientists deal in facts. And wishful thinking does not change facts, not ever. I'll keep listening to the scientists, even when I sometimes don't like the answers they give. Call me old-fashioned, if you like.


----------



## WildBoar

The problem in the US is the people, not the politicians. We all know how this virus gets spread, and how bad it is, but dammit it's Memorial Day and I want to be at the beach with 110,000 of my closest friends!

DC is as bad as it because it is full of, well, DC people. Good ol' Type A, 'me first' people who come from all over the country to work on Capital Hill or to take advantage of the relatively recession-proof local economy. For some reason people seem to be of the mindset that it only really targets the african american and hispanic populations, and being white middle class makes you somehow magically immune.


----------



## HRC_64

jacko9 said:


> With little or no testing we don't have any reported cases in some counties.



The ability to test out to 10% positivity on exists already in like 47/50 states...so from this perspective there really isn't a shortage of test since almost all states (excpet Maine, montana, oregone or something) can test as effectivly as "peak" outbreak new orleans which was able to manage its outbreak without catastrophic failures like new york/italy, etc.

But the bigger picture...testing is impossible to implement at scale for a variety of reasons...

To understand this, you need to learn math...the test is $100 and lasts for 24 hours...it would cost around 2-4% of GDP to test the workforce every week for a year (~1$US trillion dollars a year). To put that in perspective, the minimum NATO contribution (which none or hardly any of the EU can afford) is 2% of GDP. 

So no developed western economy in the OECD will pay for testing 1-2x their military budget, and certainly nobody in the 3rd world could afford it or logistically implement it (not enough lab techs, etc)...and we've already seen it only takes ~50 cases in some place far, far away (eg wuhan, china) to seed the epi/pandemic

....so ....you're not stopping it without a cure/vaccine unfortunatley....even if you could test for free...

SO please stop whining about testing.

In any event, the test is very accurate but the sample-taking process is very problematic. The virus infects tissue througout the body (blood, organs, etc) and the swab-test only captures the respiratory tract. Its very easy to false-negative the test if the virus is not on the end of that swab, but the "scientists" don't know if the the nasal-pharageal swab is a definititive sample....in fact its most likley not.

So that 1 trillion of tests you spent all your money on...is ot fight a desiseas is <0.2% death rate, and the test is strategically flawed and technically likely to miss alot of cases because the virus appears to be able to hide in other parts of the body.

There is also the PPE issue that doing 8 billion tests/year would burn through a ton of PPE supply and remove this from availability for first responders, etc

The other math problem is that 0.1% of 1 billion populstion is still a large number...even if this was the flu (its not...way worse) you would still have 10s of millions of people dying and no way to stop it because there is no vaccine or clinical cure.

TLDR...none of this is easy and any one who believes these soundbites hasn't thought thru the problem very deeply yet.


----------



## Michi

HRC_64 said:


> But the bigger picture...testing is impossible to implement at scale for a variety of reasons...


I expect that situation to improve over time. (I do hear you on the economic and scale argument.) We'll get cheaper and more reliable tests, simply because there is a huge incentive to create them: we need those tests to keep the lid on the pandemic until we have a vaccine.

If the vaccine effort fails, we are screwed. But, even if this first round of vaccines doesn't pan out, we won't stop trying. I'm quietly confident that we'll get a vaccine eventually. Again, the incentive is huge, and the best scientists are working on it all over the world. My bet is on human ingenuity; fortunately, we are smarter than the virus.


----------



## Luftmensch

ian said:


> I don’t think this is about covering their asses. This is how scientists talk. If we don’t know something for certain, we don’t speak in absolutes.



Agreed. 

There is an unfortunate 'membrane' that scientific knowledge has to penetrate when it breaks out of academia and into the wild. There are often problems with how the media, general public and policy makers handle academic literature. Understanding statistics and uncertainty is not intuitive and is _easy_ to misinterpret.

There is a subtle art to constructing statements of truth. In science data is often analysed using hypothesis tests (depending on your choice of analytic tool). Here, statements are not proven to be 'true'.... instead default positions are rejected or not. If you dont understand the framework and the context of the analysis it can be confusing and easy to misinterpret.

A relatable example is the presumption of innocence. That is; to be innocent until proven guilty. This is actually _wrong_.... Courts don't find the accused 'innocent', they find them 'not guilty'. There must be evidence beyond reasonable doubt, that a person committed a crime for them to be convicted. The null hypothesis here is that they are _not guilty_. Note that this is not the same as a statement of _innocence_. We know it is possible for a guilty person to be acquitted if there is insufficient evidence or prosecutor bungles the case. Given the way the law works... we should really be saying "not guilty until proven guilty"... but that does not have the same ring to it...

... the same applies to science. Scientists will prefer to avoid generalising statements outside of the modelling or data. When pushed by the media to do so, the response will always come with a lot of caveats and qualifications. This isn't about covering their asses, the scientists know they are being asked to reach outside the limits of the process.


----------



## Barmoley

Michi said:


> I would strongly disagree with that. We have quite a good idea of how it spreads. Mostly by droplet infection between persons in close contact. Probably also to some degree by picking up the virus from surfaces that someone sneezed or coughed onto.
> 
> It appears to be well established that asymptomatic people can spread the virus, so I don't understand why you raised that point.
> 
> 
> That statement strikes me as truly unlikely. These are people who spend their lives studying viruses, working on epidemiology, have come up with vaccines, got HIV under control, have eradicated (or nearly so) smallpox and polio, and so on. Scientists have forgotten more about their field of expertise than the rest of the population put together has ever learned. I don't understand why you would want to just sweep that under the carpet, or disregard their advice.
> 
> As @ian said, scientists don't always have all the answers, and answers are rarely absolute. Instead, scientists run experiments, observe, formulate hypotheses based on the observations, test the hypotheses and, little by little, gain a deeper understanding of whatever puzzle they are looking at. All the while subjecting their work to peer review, so other scientists can try to replicate the results, and check whether there are flaws in the reasoning or experimental setup.
> 
> This is how science works. Little by little, in the open. This is why we have cars, aeroplanes, computers, modern surgery, vaccines, cancer treatments, mobile phones, Google maps, PM steel knives, and ten million other things without which modern life would be impossible.
> 
> Last time I looked, most people were quite happy to see their doctor to get advice and treatment for whatever ailment they have. And they don't mind at all showing up at a hospital to get patched back up after a car accident or to get that chemotherapy that might save their life. People also seem quite content to use their mobile phone to navigate to a destination, or use the weather report to find out about a hurricane before it actually hits them. None of these things would be possible without some very advanced science and engineering, from microbiology, to general relativity, to rocketry and satellites.
> 
> As to what to do about the virus, scientists have indeed a very good idea of what to do: _isolate_. In the absence of a treatment or a vaccine, that is the next best thing we can do to stop it from spreading.
> 
> We know that this works. See Australia and New Zealand, for example. These two countries have 4 deaths per million population. For comparison, the US has 304 per million (that's 76 times more), and Sweden has 409 (over 100 times more). For countries with a sizeable population, Sweden currently has the 6th-highest death rate in the world, after Belgium, Spain, the UK, Italy, and France.
> 
> Scientists deal in facts. And wishful thinking does not change facts, not ever. I'll keep listening to the scientists, even when I sometimes don't like the answers they give. Call me old-fashioned, if you like.



it is not well established that asymptotic people can transmit the virus or rather how well they can spread it. for Example CDC changed the wording to 

COVID-19 may be spread by people who are not showing symptoms.
it used to be more definite before, now there seem to be some doubts. I am not saying they do or don’t, but it is definitely not well established. Scientist will figure it out, just takes time, you are oversimplifying the issue. There is more at play than just isolate until we have a cure. It is great that Australia and New Zealand faired so well, but you keep on ignoring unique geographic attributes that these countries enjoy. Being basically islands and having relatively tiny populations and very few initial cases has a lot to do with what worked. The virus existed in the US before anyone knew it was here and we don’t exactly have internal borders, so isolating one county from the other is not possible. I am not dissing scientist or science, huge proponent of both. I am disagreeing with the notion of just listen to scientist, there is a lot more to it and decisions and policies should be based on listening to experts from different areas of expertise. Scientists know a lot in their areas, but often times they don’t realize how the world works and what the implications of their ”perfect” solutions are. If you start believing in scientists blindly then it is no different from religious believes. Science requires critical thinking and challenging hypothesis otherwise it is not science at all.


----------



## M1k3

Scientific process should be challenged with scientific, not philosophical, process.


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## Barmoley

I am not challenging scientific process I am challenging the statement "just listen to the scientists"


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## Luftmensch

The dusty Victorian notion that science is a world of 'truths' to be collected is easy to take for granted. What happens when you break one of these truths? You have to reinvent your models and understanding. Welcome to quantum physics in the early 1900's. Newtonian physics was such a successful model at explaining the universe, it may have appeared to be a fundamental truth. Not only did quantum physics change science, it also changed philosophical thought. Philosophers such as Popper started putting a modern framework around what the 'truth' is - giving rise to fields like verisimilitude.

Science is still being taught at schools as a collection of 'facts'. I have sympathy for this simplification. As a civilisation we have only had 50-70 years of data that extend well and truly beyond human intuition and senses. 'Science' is really a _process_ for handling this. Not a textbook. As such science is constantly striving to generate the most accurate/powerful explanation of the data - with no shame of being wrong should better data be produced. This is part of the _process_.



Barmoley said:


> Scientists know a lot in their areas, but often times they don’t realize how the world works and what the implications of their ”perfect” solutions are.



Science has no agenda (other than to build knowledge). People do.

Science, as a process, is the best tool for understanding how the world works. It is the best form for organising thought to predict the implications of any solution. But scientists are human. Just like any other occupation! One of the main functions of science is to flush personal biases and opinions from the 'record'. For this reason, publications are _usually_ fairly sterile environments. This breaks down when scientists are asked about their opinions outside of the processes. It also does not stop some scientists entering a field to reinforce a personal belief. The sterile side of science tends not to prescribe anything beyond a current best understanding. Corporations use this knowledge to make profit. Policy makers use this knowledge to regulate and set policy. But don't confuse this with science misunderstanding how the world works or prescribing a solution.

With the pandemic... epidemiologists are looking at epidemiology. Virologists are looking at SARS-CoV-2. The economy isn't their primary concern. Nor should it be. Doctors have science training but they aren't really scientists. Their concern is the health of their patients. Some are looking at effective treatment methods. Economists arent scientists p); they arent doctors. They are looking at the economy. Historians are none of these - but they illuminate lessons from the past. That anyone of these professions should only be concerned about their area of expertise is unsurprising. Politicians might draw on all of this information to generate policy that attempts to balance all the competing information and requirements. Or they might generate policy that get them elected in the next cycle.... or they might generate policy for the highest bidder...

So in reality, do we



Barmoley said:


> "just listen to the scientists"



?


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## jacko9

You would rather "just listen to the politicians"? Fauci says he wears a mask to be a symbol of 'what you should be doing'


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## M1k3




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## parbaked




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## Barmoley

jacko9 said:


> You would rather "just listen to the politicians"? Fauci says he wears a mask to be a symbol of 'what you should be doing'


It is not either or, it is a complicated problem. For example, I thought masks should've been worn from the very beginning while "scientists", (sorry @ian no disrespect meant, just some scientists are doctors, or political or economic scientists, that's why I put them in quotes in the first place) were saying that masks don't do anything, didn't make any sense. Listen to whomever you want just apply critical thinking, if something doesn't make sense or seems impossible look for more expert opinions. One of our local experts said a few weeks back that lock down can't be lifted until a cure or vaccine is available and until we can test and trace everyone. How is that possible to actually accomplish? The statement was retracted and they said she meant something else, but I heard what she said. Some of these things are just not possible, take too long, too expensive, etc. Lives are precious and we should save as many as possible, but we live in the real world some things just can't be done.

Oh and I never said anything about science, love it. Scientists are people they can be wrong, they can have agendas, they can be anything else any other human can.


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## jacko9

Yeah I heard one of our politicians say that this was a hoax, the a politician said that this would never go past 15 people dead, then a politician said that this would be all over by 3/15, etc. The number of things said that were proven wrong by politicians are way too numerous to reprint here. Early on one politician pushed a "snake oil" remedy as a cure and directed those under him to direct all of the money available toward buy that fake cure over personal protective equipment. When it was very evident that the federal government wasn't going to help the hospitals in need some tried to limit the availability of masks to doctors or other front line medical emergency workers so at that time another politician said see you don't need masks. The scientists have been correct from the start and some politicians have been wrong every time and over 100,000 people are already dead and most likely many more not counted. Politicians have been told to stop testing to minimize the danger and get people back to work - time will show how bad those decisions have been. If the governors of coastal states didn't shut things down while some politicians were calling this pandemic a hoax the number of dead would be much higher. There is no cure, no vaccine and the reoccurrence of this virus will happen despite some politicians telling us they have heard some very good things. Too long too expensive well how many more death cycles do we have to go through to make it worth while? We are currently spending a trillion dollars a year on defense do we actually have an enemy invading us? The US military is being used as a police force for the US Chamber of Commerce can we continue to afford that? On and on it goes but facts are facts and some bumbling politician lying to us telling us the every thing is going to be ok is pretty dense.


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## jacko9

Coronavirus has killed more than 100,000 people across the US | CNN


It took less than four months for an unseen enemy to kill 100,000 Americans. That's almost twice the number of Americans lost during the entire Vietnam War.




www.cnn.com


----------



## jacko9

What we mean by a 'second peak' of coronavirus | CNN


A second peak wouldn't unfold as neatly or gradually as a wave. A second coronavirus peak would mean a sudden spike in cases, which could overburden health care systems again and possibly cause a greater number of deaths.




www.cnn.com





Don't be surprised if we are still fighting this mess a year from now or longer.


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## WildBoar

I would be surprised if we were not still fighting it in a year. And by 'we', I mean the whole world.


----------



## HRC_64

WildBoar said:


> I would be surprised if we were not still fighting it in a year. And by 'we', I mean the whole world.



yep no precedent for a cure for ANY corona virus yet, so .... need to be glad SARS and MERSs got stopped 

Imagine IFRs of 10-20% not 0.2%


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## jacko9

We (the world) has a serious problem with COVID19 and the pandemic needs to be treated seriously because this is going to keep multiplying year after year and we need a plan at a National Level to deal with it.


----------



## Michi

Barmoley said:


> It is great that Australia and New Zealand faired so well, but you keep on ignoring unique geographic attributes that these countries enjoy. Being basically islands and having relatively tiny populations and very few initial cases has a lot to do with what worked.


I disagree with that. There are a number of reasons why Australia did so well, and they don't have anything to do with unique geographic attributes:

Australia paid attention to what was going on overseas.
Politicians here sought the advice of experts early and heeded it.
Australia started screening arrivals from Wuhan starting 23 January.
Starting 31 January, Chinese travellers were no longer allowed into the country unless they had spent the prior two weeks in a country other than China.
Travel bans applied to people from Iran (1 March), South Korea (5 March), Italy (11 March).
On 13 March, all states, territories, and the federal government formed a national cabinet, so there would be a nation-wide and co-ordinated response to the crisis.
Starting 15 March, gatherings of more than 500 people were banned. Starting the same day, _all_ travellers arriving in Australia had to self-isolate for 14 days, with heavy fines for non-compliance.
On 20 March, Australia instituted a general travel ban and closed its borders. The same day, a social distancing rule requiring 4 square meters per person was introduced.
On 22 March, Victoria and New South Wales closed all non-essential services.
On 23 March, all places of social gathering, clubs, hotels, entertainment venues, cinemas, places of worship, night clubs, and a bunch of similar businesses were shut.
Between 24 March and 11 April, all states closed their borders and applied movement restrictions within the state. In Queensland, gatherings were limited to two persons. People were required by law to stay at home except when on essential business. Heavy fines were imposed Australia-wide for violations of social distancing and stay-at-home orders.
And so on, and so on…

None of this has anything to do with special geography. It has everything to do with listening to scientists and taking their advice.

The single most important factor: all political bickering and partisanship disappeared. States with governments from opposite sides co-operated with each other. The federal opposition supported the government.

Australian citizens received a consistent message from all levels of government to abide by the restrictions. Local, state, and federal politicians all pulled on the same rope. The public did not receive mixed messages, did not see one level of government trying to undermine another and, consequently, bought into the distancing rules. _Everyone_, government _and_ citizens, worked together to beat this thing.

What made the outbreak so much less severe here than elsewhere was consistent messaging, early and decisive action, paying attention to the science, and keeping ideology out of the decision making process.

Yes, Australia trashed its economy in the process. As did pretty much every other country in the world. But, at least, Australia has something to show for it, with 103 deaths nationwide, a death rate of 4 per million, 92% of all cases having recovered, new daily cases in the teens, and only about 30 people still hospitalised.

I'll take Australia's approach over just about any other country's any day…


----------



## madelinez

You only have to look at the countries with the best outcomes, their governments had consistent early responses nationwide. The US was always going to have a hard time in the face of a pandemic, it's the central hub of global trade, it sees huge numbers of travelers passing through it. But this time around it wasted 3-6 weeks and politicized the issue instead of mitigating it.

I'm not trying to make this political but countries responding with the most recent scientific evidence are faring better, science isn't religion, it's never completely correct, instead it corrects itself as new evidence emerges. 

All lives matter, discounting over 50's isn't something I understand.


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## WildBoar

Seeing as how it appears there were already cases in the US in January, chances are locking down borders would have had limited effectiveness. We already had it, but did not know it.


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## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> I disagree with that. There are a number of reasons why Australia did so well, and they don't have anything to do with unique geographic attributes:
> 
> Australia paid attention to what was going on overseas.
> Politicians here sought the advice of experts early and heeded it.
> Australia started screening arrivals from Wuhan starting 23 January.
> Starting 31 January, Chinese travellers were no longer allowed into the country unless they had spent the prior two weeks in a country other than China.
> Travel bans applied to people from Iran (1 March), South Korea (5 March), Italy (11 March).
> On 13 March, all states, territories, and the federal government formed a national cabinet, so there would be a nation-wide and co-ordinated response to the crisis.
> Starting 15 March, gatherings of more than 500 people were banned. Starting the same day, _all_ travellers arriving in Australia had to self-isolate for 14 days, with heavy fines for non-compliance.
> On 20 March, Australia instituted a general travel ban and closed its borders. The same day, a social distancing rule requiring 4 square meters per person was introduced.
> On 22 March, Victoria and New South Wales closed all non-essential services.
> On 23 March, all places of social gathering, clubs, hotels, entertainment venues, cinemas, places of worship, night clubs, and a bunch of similar businesses were shut.
> Between 24 March and 11 April, all states closed their borders and applied movement restrictions within the state. In Queensland, gatherings were limited to two persons. People were required by law to stay at home except when on essential business. Heavy fines were imposed Australia-wide for violations of social distancing and stay-at-home orders.
> And so on, and so on…
> 
> None of this has anything to do with special geography. It has everything to do with listening to scientists and taking their advice.
> 
> The single most important factor: all political bickering and partisanship disappeared. States with governments from opposite sides co-operated with each other. The federal opposition supported the government.
> 
> Australian citizens received a consistent message from all levels of government to abide by the restrictions. Local, state, and federal politicians all pulled on the same rope. The public did not receive mixed messages, did not see one level of government trying to undermine another and, consequently, bought into the distancing rules. _Everyone_, government _and_ citizens, worked together to beat this thing.
> 
> What made the outbreak so much less severe here than elsewhere was consistent messaging, early and decisive action, paying attention to the science, and keeping ideology out of the decision making process.
> 
> Yes, Australia trashed its economy in the process. As did pretty much every other country in the world. But, at least, Australia has something to show for it, with 104 deaths nationwide, a death rate of 4 per million, 92% of all cases having recovered, new daily cases in the teens, and only about 30 people still hospitalised.
> 
> I'll take Australia's approach over just about any other country's any day…



I agree with everything you have said... but there is _some_ truth to the claim that our unique geography/population attributes helped.

Perhaps the most advantageous is that we are on the road to nowhere. You don't move through Australia to get anywhere but Australia (.... and NZ. Hey NZ! Love ya!). I think this helped us a lot. As 'crowded' as our city centres might seem - they aren't nearly as as dense as badly hit cities. For comparison, the urban area of Sydney is estimated to have a density of 1,171 people per square kilometre. New York is 10,715, Bergamo is 3,072 and London is 5,666. Combined, this means we were likely to start with a lower number of infected entering the country and less rapid spreading due to a lower density.

While you are absolutely right, all the measures you listed kept us safe, i think our irrelevance  allowed us to start with a slight advantage.


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## Luftmensch

To keep things light.... Australia is clumsily doing well. We arent perfect. For a bit of amusement: our pandemic wage subsidy program will cost $60bn less than originally forecast due to 'reporting error'!


----------



## jacko9

WildBoar said:


> Seeing as how it appears there were already cases in the US in January, chances are locking down borders would have had limited effectiveness. We already had it, but did not know it.



Intelligence Agencies started monitoring events in China in November 2019 and briefed the president early while he was calling it a Hoax,









US intelligence agencies started tracking coronavirus outbreak in China as early as November


US spy agencies were tracking the rise of the novel coronavirus as early as November, weeks before that information was included in President Donald Trump’s daily intelligence briefing, a for…




www.mercurynews.com


----------



## inferno

jacko9 said:


> With little or no testing we don't have any reported cases in some counties. How many deaths are acceptable to you 100,000 , 200,000, 300,000 or more? We have no plan and the virus is spreading slowly but surely. Dare I say it again we have no plan and the politicians are not listening to the scientists.



turkmenistan actually outlawed the word coronavirus several months ago. its illegal to both print and say it. and therefor corona ceased to exist in turkmistan. easy as that. genious people there.


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## jacko9

inferno said:


> turkmenistan actually outlawed the word coronavirus several months ago. its illegal to both print and say it. and therefor corona ceased to exist in turkmistan. easy as that. genious people there.


Thats like the GOP in Florida outlawing the term global warming in all of their official publications like that is going to stop the state from flooding. Same difference as the current administration telling us that coronavirus is all done and lets get back to work.


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## inferno




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## jacko9

To your last point I'm sure the cure will be announced by Fox News any moment now. It's all over and you can go hug your buddies.


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## inferno

Barmoley said:


> I am not challenging scientific process I am challenging the statement "just listen to the scientists"



scientists = scientologists
astronomy = astrology
cosmology = cosmetology

i have suspiscion that almost all of our current "scientists" did infact qualify as such by being on list of actors from the movie "idiocracy". but thats just me.


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## inferno

jacko9 said:


> To your last point I'm sure the cure will be announced by Fox News any moment now. It's all over and you can go hug your buddies.



the vaccine is coming any day now. just like fusion power.


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## jacko9

inferno said:


> the vaccine is coming any day now. just like fusion power.


Yeah cold fusion is just one mixer away!


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## inferno

i heard the good folks over at purdue pharma invented a time traveling machine and traveled 10 years into the future and simply stole the vaccine from themselves (carefully not to mess with mundane retrocausulalities such as the grandfather paradox of course).


----------



## Michi

inferno said:


> turkmenistan actually outlawed the word coronavirus several months ago. its illegal to both print and say it. and therefor corona ceased to exist in turkmistan. easy as that. genious people there.


Not accurate, I’m afraid: Coronavirus off limits in Turkmenistan | Reporters without borders

See the erratum at the end of the article.


----------



## Michi

Monitoring poop might help us catch new clusters early:









Poop alert: Sewage could signal impending burst of COVID-19 cases


Viral RNA levels spike in sewage seven days ahead of new cases.




arstechnica.com


----------



## WildBoar

It would just prove that Trump was right to be shoveling poop the past few months


----------



## Michi

When the pooping starts, the shooting starts.


----------



## CiderBear

I've been avoiding commenting on this thread, but I feel like the information in this article deserves to be shared









The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them


Please read this link to learn about the author and background to these posts. It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from...




www.erinbromage.com





Haven't read anything that concise and easy to understand until now.


----------



## inferno

Michi said:


> Monitoring poop might help us catch new clusters early:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Poop alert: Sewage could signal impending burst of COVID-19 cases
> 
> 
> Viral RNA levels spike in sewage seven days ahead of new cases.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> arstechnica.com



i've been monitoring my poop for several hours now. how can i tell if my particular poop has the coronavirus??


----------



## lowercasebill

It will be shaped like a beer bottle


----------



## M1k3

Possibly a lime wedge also


----------



## inferno

what if it has both the lime and the bottle thing going?


----------



## lowercasebill

You drank too much?


----------



## M1k3

inferno said:


> what if it has both the lime and the bottle thing going?


Did you fall asleep and find that?


----------



## HRC_64

not surprising...









Exclusive: Coronavirus began 'as an accident' in Chinese lab, says former MI6 boss


Sir Richard Dearlove tells Telegraph's Planet Normal podcast that new scientific report suggests key elements of the virus were 'inserted'




www.telegraph.co.uk





Original paper:



> Mistaken assumptions about SARS - CoV - 2 's aetiology [origin] risk creating ineffective or actively harmful vaccines , including the risk of Antibody - Dependent Enhancement (ADE) . Such problems in vaccine design are illustrated from past experience in the HIV domain.





> We propose that the dual effect general method of action of this chimeric virus ’ s spike , including receptor binding domain , includes membrane components other than the ACE2 receptor , which explains clinical evidence of its infectivity and pathogenicity. We show the non - receptor dependent phagocytic general method of action to be specifically related to cumulative charge from inserted sections placed on the SARS - CoV - 2 Spike surface





https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/DBBC0FA6E3763B0067CAAD8F3363E527/S2633289220000083a.pdf/biovacc19_a_candidate_vaccine_for_covid19_sarscov2_developed_from_analysis_of_its_general_method_of_action_for_infectivity.pdf


----------



## HRC_64

more curious...









New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says


The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday.




www.reuters.com


----------



## jacko9

It must be all taken care of since we dismantled the coronavirus task force. 110,000 people dead and climbing and it's ok heh!


----------



## HRC_64

jacko9 said:


> It must be all taken care of since we dismantled the coronavirus task force...



non sequiter. science quoted is done by non USA scientists, and has nothing to do with US politics.


----------



## HRC_64

The gist of UK study says that definititive proof has emerged showing previously un-discovered modifications to virus have been found. these modifications need to be studied and ciruclated to create a proper vaccine (in case you are worried about a treatment).

To some extent its unrelated, but modifications understood appear to be (intentional) chimeric breeding or otherwise man made insertions. This debumks the earlier claims about the origin of the virus being liked to "wet market" and "pangolins" etc. Those explanations are sciencifically junk now.

The Italian study is unrelated.


----------



## HRC_64

The italian study --my understanding-- documents reduced viral loads in PCR+ patients. This reduced viral load appears to correlated with clinical presentations wihich are not nearly as dangerous as what happened in Italy back in Feb.

This is a more curious piece of information, unrelated to the UK study.

One argment against a man-made / bio-weapon being intentionally released is that such is is unlikely to be happen without a known antidote or mitigating agent. The rapid appearance of mitigating "factors" after the discovery noted in the UK paper is "odd" but not conclusive.

... it just is notable and peculiar.


----------



## HRC_64

Lastly, the Telegraphy article notes that this information has been an open secret since early april and its publication was supressed for poltical purposes by the "scientitsts" doing the peer review.

In other words, "none of this is news" to the corona virus task force, the CIA or MI-6. It's only news now becase its has been authorized to "leak" into the public domain.

good night and good luck


----------



## Michi

I'm not sure I'd rely on the Telegraph as an authoritative source.

The Independent reports:

_The study had been rejected by various journals and rewritten several times to remove accusatory claims about China before it was published in the Quarterly Review of Biophysics Discovery, according to The Telegraph.Initial co-author John Fredrik Moxnes, a chief scientific adviser to the Norwegian military, reportedly asked for his name to be removed._

Right now, I don't think it's possible to know who is right. I'm reserving judgement until there is more scientific consensus.


----------



## HRC_64

Michi said:


> I'm not sure I'd rely on the Telegraph as an authoritative source.



LMAO..."the source" is not the Newspaper...also The article full text is linked above.

This science is not really in question, and is underlying why about a week ago the Chineese had to admit the "Wet market" Theory whas a hoax...This admission is because of the science has now shoen that there were very specific adaptations to the human in the Virus. These adaptations don't just happen when a vius jumps to a new host from an existing host...they used the example of SARS....

Not only was SARS originally found close to the bats from which it came, it took time to become human-sepcific adapted. COVID-19 was human specific adapted as of the outbreak of the Wuhan wet Market, its not plausible this was the virus's first exposure to replicating in humans.

There is a specific modification to the virus which has been made as noted in the report. The fact that the scientsists could "see" this modification is because such modifications have been done in labs before.









The Chinese CDC now says the coronavirus didn't jump to people at the Wuhan wet market — instead, it was the site of a superspreader event


We still don't know the origin of the new coronavirus. But according to the Chinese CDC, it isn't the wet market in Wuhan.




www.businessinsider.com


----------



## HRC_64

This is reasearch carried out by Australians...



> The team at Flinders University in Adelaide and Latrobe University in Melbourne studied how well SARS-CoV-2...infected different animals....
> 
> Professor Petrovsky expected to find an animal that was most susceptible to this, such as bats, ... but was shocked when humans came out on top.
> 
> Furthermore, viruses tend to get better at infecting new species as they adapt over time, but COVID-19 started 'completely optimised from day one without the need to evolve'.
> 
> 'This is a new virus that has never been in humans before, but it has an extraordinarily high binding to human receptors, which is very surprising'



In other words, the Covid-19 virus FOUND IN WUHAN WT MARKET is BETTER at infecting humans than ANY OTHER HOST SPECIES...

That's not "typically" how evolution works. The statitstical odds are prohibitive and situation is unprecedented. This is why the China CDC publicly relented and admitted defeat for their wet market theory.


----------



## HRC_64

jacko9 said:


> If I read it in the New York Times perhaps I'll listen but, not Fox and Friends.



Are you this illiterate? Nothing being discussed is remotely related to "American"...


----------



## rob

HRC_64 said:


> This is reasearch carried out by Australians...
> 
> 
> 
> In other words, the Covid-19 virus FOUND IN WUHAN WT MARKET is BETTER at infecting humans than ANY OTHER HOST SPECIES...
> 
> That's not "typically" how evolution works. The statitstical odds are prohibitive and situation is unprecedented. This is why the China CDC publicly relented and admitted defeat for their wet market theory.


I did see this last week. One would doubt Nikolai Petrovsky is a conspiracy theorist.


----------



## Michi

The Business Insider article seems decent. I don't see it suggesting though that the virus was engineered in or escaped from a lab. My understanding at this point is that the virus evolved naturally and jumped from bats to humans, possibly via an intermediate host. There seem to be lots of scientist whose research results support that scenario.

We may never know for certain. If the virus _did_ escape from a lab, only the Chinese might know and, if they do, they'll do their damndest to not let anyone else find out. But it may _not_ have escaped from a lab, let's not forget that.

Finger pointing and blaming will help no-one here. The genie is out of the bottle now, and nothing will put it back. Very quietly, I have no doubt, quite a lot of biological research institutions (and not only in China) will be reviewing their procedures to make sure that no virus escapes from _their_ lab.


----------



## lowercasebill

Lots of knowledge here so....
I believe it was man made for a purpose. Now the question.
This is an m-rna virus?
Has there ever been a vaccine made for an m-rna virus? I have been told there has never been. 
Thanks


----------



## Michi

lowercasebill said:


> I believe it was man made for a purpose.


I'm having a hard time thinking of a purpose. What's the purpose?


----------



## lowercasebill

Exactly what is happening now.
I am open to maybe it got out by accident but why make it unless you are going to use it.
On a happier note i am about to torment the neighborhood with the smell of pork belly and hickory smoke.


----------



## Michi

lowercasebill said:


> I am open to maybe it got out by accident but why make it unless you are going to use it.


It seems far from established at this point that the virus "was made". Even assuming that it was, to what end?


----------



## ian

Michi said:


> It seems far from established at this point that the virus "was made". Even assuming that it was, to what end?



To make China the leading world power. After some initial incompetence they cracked down and contained the virus. Meanwhile, other nations with incompetent leadership have struggled to even acknowledge the virus, and may be hobbled by it for months to come.

Oh, sorry. The point was that China did it on purpose? I was just saying what would probably happen, regardless of the origins of the virus. I’m not going to pay attention to any posts on KKF about its origins until the media starts reporting en masse about a particular study or conclusion. The b*llsh*t probability index of articles with sensational claims about a subject that everyone in the world cares about, but which haven’t been picked up by other media outlets, is quite high. Same goes for extrapolation by non-expert KKF members. If it turns out that I miss out on being one of the first to hear about the real origin story while waiting for confirmation by multiple news sources, so be it.

That said, it wasn’t my intention to suppress a discussion that others find interesting. So, carry on!


----------



## Michi

I have to say that I'm worried about the consequence of all the protests over the past ten days or so. These could turn out to be very expensive protests, indeed. I guess we'll find out starting around 15 June or so. I really, really hope that this isn't going to cause a huge spike


----------



## inferno

HRC_64 said:


> This is reasearch carried out by Australians...
> 
> 
> 
> In other words, the Covid-19 virus FOUND IN WUHAN WT MARKET is BETTER at infecting humans than ANY OTHER HOST SPECIES...
> 
> That's not "typically" how evolution works. The statitstical odds are prohibitive and situation is unprecedented. This is why the China CDC publicly relented and admitted defeat for their wet market theory.




i knew it was a bioweapon that escaped from the first time i saw the indians plotting out the genetic code. and that happened about 2 weeks in or so. they showed where the "mods" were and where they came from (sars/hiv etc). and then it was 100% clear this was man made from the start. because that would never ever ever happen in nature. ever. it has not happened in 4.5 billion years but now its suddenly does. yeah, my ass.

show me the ****ing animal it came from then!! gotta be thousands of these right. but nooo. no one can point us in this direction because no such animal exists, or ever will exist.

and what a ****ing coincidence it just happened to show up outsides chinas only BSL4 lab. what a ****ing coincidence. my oh my. yeah really gotta be some ****ing sherlock holmes to figure out how the **** this really went down  or poirot maybe.

i think what happened is this: random chinese hack in a lab accidentally sticks a needle in himself with one of the 1-10000 different new bioweapon viruses that they are synthesizing. - hmm better shut the **** up about this one. and i mean its only the flue with some hiv and sars components right, what could possibly go wrong... yeah i'm not gonna tell anyone. its really nothing. nothing but a scratch. if i say this happened they will just take me out back and shoot me in the back of the head and send the bill to my familiy for the bullet. dont want that ****. i'll take my chances. **** the world!

and the only reason all the "scientists" are shutting the **** up about it and denying its man made (and they know this goddamn well) is because they are all working on similar ****. thats all they do all day long. and they dont want to hear the outcry/riots when people find out *what they are really doing all day long*. yeah they are afraid of losing their jobs by creating **** that can kill the world. *and they know it*. and if this came to public knowledge they know they would all be burned at the stake for the ****ing crimes against humanity they have commited. (and rightfully so)

thats how it really works.


----------



## chinacats

Lol...


----------



## inferno

thats how it really works wheter you believe it or not. unfortunately. pangolins, bats, yeah right. you gotta be below 80 iq to believe that ****, but i'm above 120 so guess the propaganda works slightly worse then.

i can connect the dots myself. and color aaaaall the areas. i have all the data.


----------



## Michi

inferno said:


> i have all the data.


And a degree in genetics I would assume, plus many years of experience of analysing viral genomes? Like the scientists who tell us that the virus was not man-made?

Just checking.


----------



## Matus

Michi, he was joking ...


----------



## ian

Matus said:


> Michi, he was joking ...



are you sure? I’m not.


----------



## Matus

ian said:


> are you sure? I’m not.



I meant the part with IQ


----------



## lowercasebill

You forgot about the snake


----------



## M1k3

lowercasebill said:


> You forgot about the snake


And the oil?


----------



## labor of love

Michi said:


> I have to say that I'm worried about the consequence of all the protests over the past ten days or so. These could turn out to be very expensive protests, indeed. I guess we'll find out starting around 15 June or so. I really, really hope that this isn't going to cause a huge spike


Lol. Screw em. It’s been pretty clear by now what common step measures are to be taken to reduce the spread. Can’t fix stupid.


----------



## Luftmensch

Hey @Michi,

Did you catch this article?

We often accuse the right of distorting science. But the left changed the coronavirus narrative overnight

He paints the 'left' and 'right' with too broad a brush. People can hold a complex mix of political and social beliefs. But there are some interesting perspectives there:



> The climate-change-denying right is often ridiculed, correctly, for politicizing science. Yet the way the public health narrative around coronavirus has reversed itself overnight seems an awful lot like … politicizing science.
> 
> What are we to make of such whiplash-inducing messaging? Merely pointing out the inconsistency in such a polarized landscape feels like an act of heresy. But “‘Your gatherings are a threat, mine aren’t,’ is fundamentally illogical, no matter who says it or for what reason,” as the author of The Death of Expertise, Tom Nichols, put it.



It is a terribly complex situation. While I support movements against racism... it does seem like these protests could dent the authority of public heath experts. Not in the obvious violation of of best practice, but in the complacency it inspires. Why bother trying to fight the pandemic if there are riots in the streets? And who gets to choose what is worth breaking health orders over? Ok... So if am a supporter of equality and I get to break the rules... shouldn't the weirdo 5G antivaxers get to break the rules without scorn?

... I dunno... it is a complex mess... people are tired, poor, sick, marginalised


----------



## ian

Luftmensch said:


> Hey @Michi,
> 
> Did you catch this article?
> 
> We often accuse the right of distorting science. But the left changed the coronavirus narrative overnight
> 
> He paints the 'left' and 'right' with too broad a brush. People can hold a complex mix of political and social beliefs. But there are some interesting perspectives there:
> 
> 
> 
> It is a terribly complex situation. While I support movements against racism... it does seem like these protests could dent the authority of public heath experts. Not in the obvious violation of of best practice, but in the complacency it inspires. Why bother trying to fight the pandemic if there are riots in the streets? And who gets to choose what is worth breaking health orders over? Ok... So if am a supporter of equality and I get to break the rules... shouldn't the weirdo 5G antivaxers get to break the rules without scorn?
> 
> ... I dunno... it is a complex mess... people are tired, poor, sick, marginalised



I guess it’s worth mentioning that there is a consistent nonpolitical public health message available here:

1) the earlier protests were explicitly against the measures we need to take to combat the virus, so public health professionals oppose them.

2) the current protests are about racism and inequality. covid is disproportionately deadly to black people, for a variety of reasons rooted in racism. E.g. the fact that black people more often live in places with more pollution and in closer quarters, have less weath, are treated inequitably by the health system, and have may have higher overall stress levels. Fighting racism is therefore in the interest of public health, and so public health professionals approve of these protests. I think that’s what people mean when they say “racism is a public health crisis.”

However, arguing that the protests will help with public health in the future is perhaps not a compelling argument to some, given that they may do immediate damage. I suppose if we could tell the protesters “hey, can you wait to get angry till after the pandemic is over?” that would be the best of both worlds. But something in me doubts this is plausible. Hmm.

A more compelling argument for me is just to say that the current protests were so long in coming and are so important that it’s worth it.

But yea, that’s political, I suppose, and I’m sure many on here will disagree with me.


----------



## HRC_64

Ummm...."Science"









Surgisphere: mass audit of papers linked to firm behind hydroxychloroquine Lancet study scandal


Questions continue for Surgisphere and CEO Sapan Desai as universities deny knowledge of links to firm behind Lancet’s now-disputed blockbuster study




www.theguardian.com


----------



## HRC_64

> The audit follows a Guardian investigation that found the company, Surgisphere, used suspect data in major scientific studies that were published and then retracted by world-leading medical journals, including the Lancet and the New England Journal of Medicine.
> Further inquiries by the Guardian into Surgisphere and its founder and chief executive, Dr Sapan Desai, have confirmed that:





> • Major institutions including Stanford University, which were described as research partners on the Surgisphere website, said they were not aware of any formal relationship with the company.
> • A study that formed the basis of Desai’s PhD may contain doctored images, according to expert claims, and the global medical publishing company Elsevier is conducting a review of his papers published in its journals.
> • Claims made by Desai about his qualifications gained since his medical degree have been called into doubt, including his claims to hold two PhDs, a master’s, and affiliations with major universities and colleges. Some of these affiliations have now been removed from his website and online profiles.
> The blockbuster Lancet study based on Surgisphere data led to global trials of hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19 being halted in May, because it appeared to show the drug increased deaths in Covid-19 patients.





> A spokeswoman for the University of Utah said it was not aware of any institutional relationship.
> Harvard University medical school also said it had “no formal research agreements or partnerships” with Surgisphere
> The University of Minnesota said it had no record of anyone at the university collaborating with Surgisphere.
> Both the University of Glasgow and Stanford told the Guardian they were not aware of any relationship with Surgisphere.


----------



## HRC_64

1) Author of this paper has (apparently) completely fabricated backgound...going back maybe 10 years
2) Company sourcing the data is ALSO fabricated... with fake/underqualified employees
3) Study is also almost surely also phony...

But WHY? And HOW does this BS make it thru peer review at JAMA and LANCET?


----------



## HRC_64

More "Science"...

May 5th








Ousted US government scientist files whistleblower complaint over Covid-19 concerns


Rick Bright says he was reassigned to lesser role because he resisted pressure to allow widespread use of hydroxychloroquine




www.theguardian.com




May 13th








Rick Bright will warn Congress of 'darkest winter in modern history' without ramped up coronavirus response


Dr. Rick Bright, the ousted director of a key federal office charged with developing medical countermeasures, will testify before Congress on Thursday that the Trump administration was unprepared for the coronavirus pandemic and warn that the the US will face "unprecedented illness and...




www.cnn.com




May22nd


https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/s0140673620311806


----------



## HRC_64

(continued)
May 29th-June 3rd





Science | AAAS







www.sciencemag.org




June 4th








Covid-19: Lancet retracts paper that halted hydroxychloroquine trials


Retraction made after Guardian investigation found inconsistencies in data




www.theguardian.com


----------



## HRC_64

So, withing two weeks after this...May 5th news story








Whistleblower alleges Trump official ignored warnings on hydroxychloroquine, coronavirus - The Boston Globe


A government scientist was ousted after the Trump administration ignored his dire warnings about COVID-19 and a malaria drug President Donald Trump was pushing for the coronavirus despite scant evidence it helped, according to a whistleblower complaint Tuesday.




www.bostonglobe.com





We get a study by a fake researcher, and a fake company, with fake data...on May 22nd









New study finds chloroquine doesn’t help COVID-19 patients — and it might even hurt


Researchers observed higher death rate and heart problems.




www.theverge.com





That leads to May 25th...WHO stopping "Real" Scienctific" trials of the drug in question, thanks to the "science" in the fake study?








WHO halts hydroxychloroquine trial for coronavirus amid safety fears


Malaria drug taken by Trump could raise risk of death and heart problems, study shows




www.theguardian.com


----------



## HRC_64

But don't worry....The day of/after the Retraction...on Jun 4th...what happens?

"Science" will conjure ... a replacement?



> ... results were shared via a press release, which the study’s lead authors shared on Twitter. They have not been peer-reviewed or published in a medical journal.



The early relase of this UNFINISHED EXPERIMENT's DATA data is

ALSO designed to halt any more "real" science ...??????????

June 5, 2020








Study: Hydroxychloroquine had no benefit for hospitalized Covid-19 patients, possibly closing door to use of drug


Hydroxychloroquine had no benefit for hospitalized Covid-19 patients, possibly closing door to use of drug.




www.statnews.com


----------



## HRC_64

WHO declares COvid is no longer spread by asymptomatric carriers?








Coronavirus spread by asymptomatic people 'appears to be rare,' WHO official says | CNN


The spread of Covid-19 by someone who is not showing symptoms appears to be rare, Maria Van Kerkhove, the World Health Organization's technical lead for coronavirus response and head of the emerging diseases and zoonoses unit, said during a media briefing in Geneva on Monday.




www.cnn.com





But this is also "faked" (or something)?? WHO knows what they are talking about???








'We don’t actually have that answer yet': WHO clarifies comments on asymptomatic spread of Covid-19


After strong pushback from public health experts, a top WHO official clarified scientists don’t know yet how often asymptomatic Covid-19 patients are spreading the disease to others.




www.statnews.com


----------



## HRC_64

But wait, now we go back to May 15th...









Oxford vaccine trial moves into hospitals amid fears coronavirus not prevalent enough in wider society


The Oxford University vaccine trial is heading into hospitals amid fears that Covid-19 is not prevalent enough in wider society, a leading scientist has revealed. John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, said more than 1,000 people had been vaccinated in the first phase of...




www.healthleadersmedia.com







> ... fears that Covid-19 is not prevalent enough in wider society...



Oxford says virus in remission in wider socienty (so much vaccine trials may not be feasible)?


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> Did you catch this article?
> 
> We often accuse the right of distorting science. But the left changed the coronavirus narrative overnight


I just read it, thanks!

I agree, this really is complex. It is unfortunate that people decided to finally protest against the mis-treatment of black people at a time when doing mass protests is a really bad idea. It is unfortunate, but possibly no coincidence: with so many people out of work, there is plenty of time to go protesting instead. (Conjecture on my part; I have no data to support this idea, but I suspect that the unemployment rate is a contributing factor, as is the pent-up anger about being having to isolate, feeling unsafe, and getting shafted by a virus.)

Personally, I'm in agreement with the protesters. Stopping the inequalities is a good thing, in my opinion. Australia has the same problem with aborigines, who are grossly over-represented in terms of incarceration rate, deaths in custody, shorter life span, child mortality, etc.

Last weekend, Australia had mass protests in all major cities, both to support the BLM movement in the US, and to protest against the treatment of aborigines here. We've had double standards applied by our governments. It's not OK to have spectators at a football match, but it's OK to attend a protest where tens of thousands march shoulder to shoulder. I suspect that this call was made because state governments knew that people would protest anyway. And then they would have had to deal with tens of thousands of "crimes", not to mention getting accused of being racist. The police force would have been completely overwhelmed, and lots of perfectly respectable citizens would have been criminalised. It was a pragmatic call to allow the protests; I don't think there was any other realistic option. People power in action…

Today, Victoria reported eight new coronavirus cases. One of the infected persons attended the protests last weekend. From late next week, we'll start to see what the fallout of the protests is. In Australia, we have infection rates so low that, just maybe, we'll get away with this and put the lid back on the few outbreaks that might result. In the US, I think the picture will likely be much darker 

I do hope that I'm wrong.


----------



## Michi

HRC_64 said:


> 1) Author of this paper has (apparently) completely fabricated backgound...going back maybe 10 years
> 2) Company sourcing the data is ALSO fabricated... with fake/underqualified employees
> 3) Study is also almost surely also phony...
> 
> But WHY? And HOW does this BS make it thru peer review at JAMA and LANCET?


I've been a peer reviewer for a number of computer science journals, including some highly respected ones (IEEE Internet Computing, CACM, etc.) that are comparable to The Lancet in terms of influence.

Peer review is hard work. It takes hours to read a paper of any substance and to follow up on references, cross-check data, think about the methodology that was used, find flaws in the reasoning, etc.

Peer reviews are unpaid volunteer labor. People do it because they are engaged in their profession and care. But, unfortunately, some also do it because it looks good on a resume to be able to say "expert reviewer for famous Journal X". Or, sometimes, a reviewer knows one or more of the authors by reputation and reasons "if John Smith is an author, this is guaranteed to be good stuff, so I can just rubber-stamp it."

What also happens is that people with a big reputation tend to get co-opted by lesser-known researchers. If there are one or two well-known names among the authors, the paper is more likely to make it through the first submission filter and at least get to review. This has happened to me in the past, when I was pressured to add my name to a paper even though the work I did was only peripherally related to the topic, and the paper was "mostly harmless noise". But the other authors were colleagues in the same lab; it would have been extremely difficult for me to say "no".

There is often reluctance on part of peer reviewers to be honest and say "this is a garbage paper, rejected." Reviewers can be afraid that this will garner them a bad reputation, especially if they are thinking of joining some lab at the institution one of the authors is from, or if they know some of the authors personally.

I've also had some of my "reject" reviews over-ruled by a conference chair. My opinion was that the paper was crap, but the chair decided that I was being far too harsh and that it should be allowed into the proceedings, even though it was basically a paper re-written to sort of fit the theme of the conference, but without any real topical relevance. The publication pressure on academics is immense; their job depends on getting enough papers published each year, which causes a flood of re-hashed papers that have been published previously, and tends to lower the quality of what is submitted.

The journal process is not perfect. Some scientists have questionable ethics. Some scientists are bad scientists, just like some plumbers are bad plumbers. So, even a journal like The Lancet will occasionally publish something that isn't up to scratch. (Check out the story of Andrew Wakefield for a very famous example.)

Scientists once completely rejected Ignaz Semmelweis's germ theory, ridiculing the man. The same goes for Alfred Wegener's continental drift theory. But, in the long run, the scientific process works. We do eventually get to a better and more correct understanding this way, even though the path may not be straight.


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> I agree, this really is complex. It is unfortunate that people decided to finally protest against the mis-treatment of black people at a time when doing mass protests is a really bad idea. It is unfortunate, but possibly no coincidence: with so many people out of work, there is plenty of time to go protesting instead. (Conjecture on my part; I have no data to support this idea, but I suspect that the unemployment rate is a contributing factor, as is the pent-up anger about being having to isolate, feeling unsafe, and getting shafted by a virus.)



And class.... inequities in the healthcare system and labour markets affect the poor. Disproportionately African Americans and ethnic minorities. It must also be frustrating to be treated like dirt and payed a pittance whilst considered an 'essential' worker.

.... and political dog-whistling. The head of state isnt doing a great job unifying. But I wont go there....



Michi said:


> I suspect that this call was made because state governments knew that people would protest anyway. And then they would have had to deal with tens of thousands of "crimes", not to mention getting accused of being racist. The police force would have been completely overwhelmed, and lots of perfectly respectable citizens would have been criminalised. It was a pragmatic call to allow the protests; I don't think there was any other realistic option. People power in action…



Hehe... only authorised 15mins before the rally. The reason sound awfully dull. A jurisdictional error! But who knows what was going on behind the scenes? Be it hidden pragmatism or a real ****-up, I am sure the majority of police on the ground were relieved! The rally was going to happen and the ruling took away a point of conflict.

I am glad our rates are so low. I am also glad many protesters are wearing masks. But the inconsistency on this really does make the head spin. It gets increasingly difficult to argue the risk of protest is unacceptable the more parliament argues the risk is low enough to start rebooting the economy....


----------



## ian

Y’all, I just heard of this cool new drug called hydroxychloroquine! It’s supposed to be a miracle cure.


----------



## Michi

ian said:


> Y’all, I just heard of this cool new drug called hydroxychloroquine! It’s supposed to be a miracle cure.


Do tell us all about it, please!


----------



## Michi

Michi said:


> I have to say that I'm worried about the consequence of all the protests over the past ten days or so. These could turn out to be very expensive protests, indeed. I guess we'll find out starting around 15 June or so. I really, really hope that this isn't going to cause a huge spike


Fortunately, it appears that the protests did, in fact, _not_ cause a spike.









Did Floyd Protests Lead to a Virus Surge? Here’s What We Know (Published 2020)


Epidemiologists have braced for a surge of coronavirus cases. But it has not come yet.




www.nytimes.com





Unfortunately, there are plenty of opportunities for people who do not protest to make things worse.









Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count


A detailed county map shows the extent of the coronavirus outbreak, with tables of the number of cases by county.



www.nytimes.com





The US has 4% of the world's population, and 25% of coronavirus infections.


----------



## Luftmensch

I will give the articles a read.



Michi said:


> The US has 4% of the world's population, and 25% of coronavirus infections.



When I read the USA had reached 42,000 cases in a single day I thought about this... 

Surely it has to be some bizarre mixture of broken and functional? The country is rich enough to afford testing and medical care (though I acknowledge this isn't universal). It is also democratic enough to have reasonably transparent reporting. Yet the social and political fabric is under strain and it is affecting mitigation strategies.

Surely this is a case of less democratic and transparent governments not publishing the true extent of their infection numbers? If not... then somebody should tell our friends they don't have to be the best at _everything_.


----------



## lowercasebill

Luftmensch said:


> I will give the articles a read.
> 
> 
> 
> When I read the USA had reached 42,000 cases in a single day I thought about this...
> 
> Surely it has to be some bizarre mixture of broken and functional? The country is rich enough to afford testing and medical care (though I acknowledge this isn't universal). It is also democratic enough to have reasonably transparent reporting. Yet the social and political fabric is under strain and it is affecting mitigation strategies.
> 
> Surely this is a case of less democratic and transparent governments not publishing the true extent of their infection numbers? If not... then somebody should tell our friends they don't have to be the best at _everything_.


In my state and county web sites accurate numbers can be hard to find. Recently they eliminated all data from the graph back to 6/10. It has been restored.
There is a sense of entitlement, that mixed with a heathy dose of stupidity goes a long way. Goggle image gay pride parade in Chicago. 1000s shoulder to shoulder. Neighbor kids having a rave in the backyard Friday. 
You get the idea.
And your take is accurate!


----------



## parbaked

I hope I'm not being too political if I state that I am disappointed that this country has managed to politicize something as apolitical as wearing a mask in public...


----------



## Barmoley

It seems very odd that our government (California) is claiming that protests are not the cause of the spikes in cases.

1. Cases started spiking 1-2 weeks after protests, coincidence I am sure.
2. Cases are spiking mostly among 18-40 population, same demographic that participated in the protests, another coincidence.

Another interesting factoid is that while it is claimed that protests are not the cause because outdoor transmission is very unlikely, the first thing our governor did is closed beaches, bike paths and trails for 4th of July weekend. All these are outdoor activities. They claim that because protesters were moving briskly, this increased dilution and lowered the cases even more. Can you imagine how much faster bicyclists move?

So which one is it? Outdoor transmission is unlikely or we need to close beaches, trails and bike paths?

Now, they say that protests didn't seem to increase cases in New York, could this be because New York was hit extra hard earlier and that many people already had the virus prior to protests?


----------



## WildBoar

Michi said:


> The US has 4% of the world's population, and 25% of coronavirus infections.


Documented/ confirmed cases...

Many countries are not doing much testing, and are known to have much higher rates then the official numbers. Mexico is a big one. And some/ many of the central Asian countries (my wife has relatives in Tajikistan, and it's been pretty bad in their capital). Russia's honestly has been debated a bit lately as well.


----------



## Yet-Another-Dave

Barmoley said:


> It seems very odd that our government (California) is claiming that protests are not the cause of the spikes in cases. ...



The reports of this I've seen come from various health agencies and are based on contact tracing of confirmed cases. I admit to being surprised the protests didn't (apparently) cause spread. I don't think the beach & trail closures relate much to the spread out recreational uses but rather the clustered together hanging out drinking without masks, social distancing, in groups outside your immediate households that have been photographed and widely reported. At some point closures become symbolic efforts to emphasize the seriousness of the infection. In Sacramento & Orange County private parties have been identified as the major transmission points. I haven't seen equivalent reports for the other hot(-ter) spots we have, but based on national reports I wouldn't be surprised if LA, here in Santa Clara Co, etc. don't have similar problems.


----------



## Barmoley

Yet-Another-Dave said:


> The reports of this I've seen come from various health agencies and are based on contact tracing of confirmed cases. I admit to being surprised the protests didn't (apparently) cause spread. I don't think the beach & trail closures relate much to the spread out recreational uses but rather the clustered together hanging out drinking without masks, social distancing, in groups outside your immediate households that have been photographed and widely reported. At some point closures become symbolic efforts to emphasize the seriousness of the infection. In Sacramento & Orange County private parties have been identified as the major transmission points. I haven't seen equivalent reports for the other hot(-ter) spots we have, but based on national reports I wouldn't be surprised if LA, here in Santa Clara Co, etc. don't have similar problems.


I am sure the rise is a combination of everything. I am just baffled by, for example bike path closures. Most people that bike don't hang out together and drink as far as I can tell. I don't bike, so could be wrong. I also read that contact tracing in CA is very unreliable and limited. I also question if people who protested and got sick would honestly say where they got sick or give up their contacts. I am also assuming that many protesters also have other group activities outside of protests, as I know people that knew each other would get together and drive to protests in the same cars to the protest sites to limit problems with parking. I also personally saw people standing around in large groups for hours, very close to each other while protesting, very few masks were worn since there was a lot of chanting and slogan screaming, so claims that protesters were moving briskly is just not universally true.

Bottom line is, I don't know, with so many different messages it is hard to know whom to believe at this point. I just see too many coincidences and information that doesn't seem to make sense.


----------



## tgfencer

WildBoar said:


> Documented/ confirmed cases...
> 
> Many countries are not doing much testing, and are known to have much higher rates then the official numbers. Mexico is a big one. And some/ many of the central Asian countries (my wife has relatives in Tajikistan, and it's been pretty bad in their capital). Russia's honestly has been debated a bit lately as well.



That's true. But it's also fair to say our own national testing regimen hasn't been overwhelming either, so that cuts both ways. We also likely have much higher numbers than are being officially reported.

From my point of view, one of the problems isn't just our national response (or lack thereof), but our multitude of state and local responses. Just as an anecdotal story, I live in a tourist town that has, until fairly recently, been keeping a good handle on cases. However, as my state has reopened along with nearby national and state parks we have had an influx of tourists from states that have done less to combat the virus and this has helped contribute to my county and other counties nearby having experienced higher case loads. Furthermore, although there is now a state mandated requirement to wear a mask in any business or public gathering place (not exact wording) that can be enforced by law, many law enforcement agencies are choosing not to enforce it. For instance, the city police where I live are enforcing it but the county sheriff department are not. Talk about unproductive and self-defeating.

I think discrepancies between states and between various local authorities and the swaying back and forth on policies are contributing to making many responses in the US ineffective, frustrating to a wide variety of people, and thus vulnerable to political manipulation from both sides.

@Barmoley I think the uncertainty you are experiencing is what a lot of people are experiencing. There is a lot of uncertainty about this virus, both in the ways it spreads, how best to treat it without a vaccine, what the risk factors are for people in various social scenarios, and how best for governments local, state, and federal to address it while maintaining a functioning society. For me, two things stand out. Masks are an undeniable requirement and testing is an absolutely necessity (not only for helping find and contain the virus, but for the additional information these tests and later treatments provide scientists, researchers mapping spread, and politicians trying to understand what parts of their communities are affected). For me, the fact that both masks and testing are under attack from various parts of government on all levels is needlessly nonsensical and dangerous. Some people will always react irrationally but the job of government is to protect them from themselves if necessary, not provoke them to further heights.


----------



## Yet-Another-Dave

Agreed there is a lot we don't know. Erh, there seems to be a lot the doctors & scientists don't know and we know less because we're not doing the studies and the reports have errors (for many reasons.)

Two things I've seen reported, quoting different sources, that don't seem well understood related to transmission. One is that close face to face contact with an infected person is thought to be most likely (not only!) source of infection. Perhaps protestors, all facing a common point of focus, spend less time in direct face to face contact than other crowds. Second is data seems to suggest most infected people aren't that contagious, but a few are super contagious. I haven't seen a single theory explaining this second point, but several reports of different sources reporting they have seen the pattern. I suppose this could just be reporting error in the data (i.e. not admitting you were going around coughing in peoples faces...?)

Until our professionals figure out at least a few more key details, I'm afraid were pretty much screwed and still need to hunker down and try to stay safe on our own. Sadly as the infection rates soar that become harder and harder to do.


----------



## Barmoley

tgfencer said:


> That's true. But it's also fair to say our own national testing regimen hasn't been overwhelming either, so that cuts both ways. We also likely have much higher numbers than are being officially reported.
> 
> From my point of view, one of the problems isn't just our national response (or lack thereof), but our multitude of state and local responses. Just as an anecdotal story, I live in a tourist town that has, until fairly recently, been keeping a good handle on cases. However, as my state has reopened along with nearby national and state parks we have had an influx of tourists from states that have done less to combat the virus and this has helped contribute to my county and other counties nearby having experienced higher case loads. Furthermore, although there is now a state mandated requirement to wear a mask in any business or public gathering place (not exact wording) that can be enforced by law, many law enforcement agencies are choosing not to enforce it. For instance, the city police where I live are enforcing it but the county sheriff department are not. Talk about unproductive and self-defeating.
> 
> I think discrepancies between states and between various local authorities and the swaying back and forth on policies are contributing to making many responses in the US ineffective, frustrating to a wide variety of people, and thus vulnerable to political manipulation from both sides.
> 
> @Barmoley I think the uncertainty you are experiencing is what a lot of people are experiencing. There is a lot of uncertainty about this virus, both in the ways it spreads, how best to treat it without a vaccine, what the risk factors are for people in various social scenarios, and how best for governments local, state, and federal to address it while maintaining a functioning society. For me, two things stand out. Masks are an undeniable requirement and testing is an absolutely necessity (not only for helping find and contain the virus, but for the additional information these tests and later treatments provide scientists, researchers mapping spread, and politicians trying to understand what parts of their communities are affected). For me, the fact that both masks and testing are under attack from various parts of government on all levels is needlessly nonsensical and dangerous. Some people will always react irrationally but the job of government is to protect them from themselves if necessary, not provoke them to further heights.


Agreed. I thought masks when in public should've been a requirement in the first place even before the original lock downs. Just made sense, while a bunch of yahoos calling themselves "scientists" were running around saying otherwise. Now, same people are saying masks should be worn everywhere. I get that people change their minds as more data is available, but seriously, is it such a stretch to think that masks when worn correctly are useful?


----------



## Yet-Another-Dave

Barmoley said:


> ... but seriously, is it such a stretch to think that masks when worn correctly are useful?



Given the early supply problems, (which have gotten better, but seem to continue), I can forgive the early maskless position. Even now the masks available here are (largely) most effective in keeping you from infecting others. So my mask doesn't really protect me, it protects you. We seem to have a strong individualistic streak that makes many people uninterested in the overall good, i.e. reciprocally wearing their mask to protect me. All the posturing and politicization of the messages we've been sent certainly hasn't helped with that.

Given the success Taiwan has had, (less than 100 miles from China with a 1M citizens that work in China,) with masks, testing, and contact tracing I think it's pretty hard to argue against it as a strategy. But getting leaders on the same page and getting citizens to follow here... I'm discouraged and just don't see it happening.


----------



## tgfencer

Yet-Another-Dave said:


> Until our professionals figure out at least a few more key details, I'm afraid were pretty much screwed and still need to hunker down and try to stay safe on our own. Sadly as the infection rates soar that become harder and harder to do.



So my sister is an epidemiologist and my wife's best friend is an infectious disease specialist. Both told us basically the same things at the start of this: 1. That a pandemic like this was an inevitability (a matter of when, not if) and that in the scheme of things, covid-19 isn't the worst case scenario, particularly in terms of death rate (compared to say something as infectious as covid but with death rates more like SARS and MERS); 2. That the science of new viruses is inherently difficult and time-consuming because it requires the gathering of LOTS of information, then a reliable synthesis of that information, then the skill and unavoidable luck it takes to develop an appropriate medical response (ie vaccine, medications, etc), and then the time it takes to test such medicines for effectiveness and side-effects.

@Barmoley I think the takeaway is that science isn't an instant cure-all and that it takes a lot of theorizing, learning, failing, and testing to turn a supposition into a fact. Scientists aren't infallible (and some are obviously more fallible than others) but that isn't a reason to throw science out the window (which I know wasn't what you were suggesting). Good government policies in response to pandemics are therefore designed not only to save lives, but to buy scientists and medical professionals time to do their work, and these responses are generally crafted on past responses to similar outbreaks. The U.S. and the Western world have plenty of experience with helping with outbreaks in other parts of the world, but practically zero experience in fighting such an outbreak within our own borders (maybe AIDs aside). Unfortunately, the response of both our government and our population has not been designed with saving lives as a highest priority and definitely has not been much concerned with buying scientists the time they need. In reality, the most effective steps that have been historically proven to work (distancing, masks, lcokdowns etc) were generally well-known from the start, but the political will and economic flexibility to enact and enforce those most extreme measures simply didn't and don't exist in the US and thus we have a multitude of various, compromising responses that haven't worked as well and even been contradictory in nature. Those countries that have successfully tackled the virus are those that have the strength of political and popular will to enact the best policies and enforce them effectively.

Anyway, I'm sure there are others who know far more than I, but that is the general gist of what I've been told by a couple of people in related fields.


----------



## tgfencer

I might also piggyback on someone else earlier by saying that as a former academic researcher and later an editor of academic journals myself, there is a whole bunch of politicking that goes into securing funding, developing one's reputation and authority, and just publishing research in general. Doing academic/scientific research as a career is a bit like being a politician, an entrepreneur, and a lobbyist all in one. Needless to say, a lot of these realities do not always lead to best practices or the best, most reliable results. I have zero surprise that some coronavirus related studies have been disproved as unreliable, rushed or outright rubbish, but I'm also confident there are folks out there who are doing it the right way.


----------



## Luftmensch

tgfencer said:


> @Barmoley I think the takeaway is that science isn't an instant cure-all and that it takes a lot of theorizing, learning, failing, and testing to turn a supposition into a fact.



You are eloquent. I don't disagree with anything you have said. 

I know there is no tension here. That said, it is a long thread and hard to keep track of points of view. @Barmoley uses scare quotes ("scientists") in a broad sense (ill qualified people assuming a position of authority). Back from post [#1,565]:



Barmoley said:


> no disrespect meant, just some scientists are doctors, or political or economic scientists, that's why I put them in quotes in the first place) were saying that masks don't do anything, didn't make any sense. Listen to whomever you want just apply critical thinking, if something doesn't make sense or seems impossible look for more expert opinions



The intention is good but you can also read the scare quotes as a catch-all. One that is a slight against scientists who *do* know what they are talking about. _Self professed experts_ might be a less ambiguous term?


----------



## Barmoley

I am not using scare quotes whatever these are. I am using quotes for scientists because some of the so called scientists are not scientists in the right fields or are not scientists at all. If you want to call them _Self professed experts _that's fine too, just takes too long to write. I am not against scientists or science I am for it. I am just confused about the message and due to politics on every side don't know whom to trust. Science needs to be independent, but unfortunately it is not and is very much influenced by politics


----------



## Luftmensch

Barmoley said:


> I am not using scare quotes whatever these are.



Not knowing what they are called does not mean you are not using them . Definitions are never far away.

I was hoping to clarify that you aren't a sceptic. Perhaps not so successfully ? You stated your position earlier - I only raise it again because the quotes imply a non-standard usage of the word. One that _could_ be read as disdain for the process. This is how I originally interpreted the quotes. Perhaps that says more about me... In my defence, there are some extreme views floating around. Enough to make a guy suspicious 



Barmoley said:


> I am just confused about the message and due to politics on every side don't know whom to trust.



There certainly is a lot of noise being injected into the discussion!



Barmoley said:


> Science needs to be independent, but unfortunately it is not and is very much influenced by politics



I'd say by and large it is... More often it is politically/commercially driven entities amplifying insignificant or incorrect interpretations of legitimate science or, in the worst case, producing/funding junk science to suit their cause. You are right though, it can make the world a difficult place to navigate


----------



## tgfencer

Luftmensch said:


> You are eloquent. I don't disagree with anything you have said



Not usually, caught me on a good day.



Luftmensch said:


> I'd say by and large it is... More often it is politically/commercially driven entities amplifying insignificant or incorrect interpretations of legitimate science or, in the worst case, producing/funding junk science to suit their cause. You are right though, it can make the world a difficult place to navigate



I agree with this. I also think you and @Barmoley are basically in agreement barking up two different sides of the same tree. There is plenty of legitimate science, but the loudest voices with the biggest platforms are not those of scientists or often even speaking in support of those scientists’ work. Many are instead spreading politically or commercially motivated disinformation as if it were scientific fact and thus not only confusing and frustrating for the public, but giving the genuine scientists a bad rap for being unreliable or in some way fraudulent.


----------



## Luftmensch

tgfencer said:


> Not usually, caught me on a good day.



Then you barely seem to have a bad day!



tgfencer said:


> I also think you and @Barmoley are basically in agreement barking up two different sides of the same tree.



Sure  It might even be the same side of the same tree.





tgfencer said:


> Doing academic/scientific research as a career is a bit like being a politician, an entrepreneur, and a lobbyist all in one.



I thought this was on point. On top of that it is increasingly precarious. It is taking longer for post-doctoral researchers to find job security. The trend is that you have to be well into your career before you get onto 'hard money' (permanent contracts). Up to that point it is short term contract to short term contract. Many good researchers leave. COVID-19 has illuminated the extent of that. In Australia, the Government did not cover universities (surprise, surprise) under its COVID-19 support/stimulus. This means the academic staff on temporary contracts who were dropped (and there are lots) will not be eligible for income support. Not an inspiring approach to supporting our third-largest export industry. Nor does it seem intelligent to treat R&D poorly when it grows the economy...


----------



## Michi

Luftmensch said:


> Not an inspiring approach to supporting our third-largest export industry. Nor does it seem intelligent to treat R&D poorly when it grows the economy...


No more research, no more questions.


----------



## Luftmensch

Michi said:


> No more research, no more questions.



They are a troublesome, unionised bunch...


----------



## tgfencer

@Luftmensch One of the main reasons I left academics and editing. Contracts were often times less than minimum wage once you take the amount of time doing these things correctly takes.


----------



## Luftmensch

tgfencer said:


> One of the main reasons I left academics and editing.



Thats sad. Sorry it turned out that way.


----------



## chinacats

I think science is pretty damn apolitical...except in the summertime...


----------



## Michi

The fatality rate from coronavirus varies a lot by country. Depending on where one looks, it can be below 1% (Iceland), 4.6% (US), 5% (China), or as high as 14% (Italy and UK). Australian researchers have come up with an estimate of the fatality rate of coronavirus. Their estimate is based on 267 studies from over a dozen countries, and selecting the 25 they considered the most accurate and reliable. The number they came up with is 0.64%. That's about 47 million people world-wide (around 2 million people in the US) if everyone ends up getting the virus.

Seeing that herd immunity would kick in at around 70%, not everyone would get infected. But, assuming a 70% infection rate overall, that would still be about 33 million people world-wide, or 1.4 million people in the US.









Phoenix Mayor Says FEMA Refused to Help With Testing (Published 2020)


Assessing the virus’s real death rate could offer clues on what to expect next. Data shows how much harder the pandemic is hitting Black and Latino Americans.




www.nytimes.com












The Pandemic’s Big Mystery: How Deadly Is the Coronavirus? (Published 2020)


Even with more than 500,000 dead worldwide, scientists are struggling to learn how often the virus kills. Here’s why.




www.nytimes.com


----------



## Michi

It appears that a vaccine may not be as easy to come by as we hope. In addition, herd immunity may not exist, or be very weak 









Why we might not get a coronavirus vaccine


Politicians have become more cautious about immunisation prospects. They are right to be




www.theguardian.com












Spain's coronavirus antibodies study adds evidence against herd immunity | CNN


Spain's large-scale study on the coronavirus indicates just 5% of its population has developed antibodies, strengthening evidence that a so-called herd immunity to Covid-19 is "unachievable," the medical journal the Lancet reported on Monday.




edition.cnn.com


----------



## WildBoar

That Guardian article is 5+ weeks old. Not that things have changed much, but just pointing out it isn't new info.


----------



## Keith Sinclair

News today says vaccine on the horizon. Hope it is the case. Have friends in the Hotel business still out of work. 

Opened up Waikiki for bicycles on Sundays. Janice & I went out to walk wearing masks. It was good to get out. Never seen it like this stores on main Kalakaua Ave. Closed, Hotels empty, only few locals riding bikes. No tourist. 

Zoo had just opened. So few people there social distance not a problem. 

Bars opening & local parks sporting events have seen a rise in cases. 

Hawaii economy is in bad shape. Still not opening to tourist & school opening in August meeting resistance.

Kids must get back in school & parents back to work. Economically. Can't go back to total shutdown.


----------



## WildBoar

It will still be crippling if the vaccines are only 40-50% effective. Like playing Russian roulette with bullets in half the chambers.


----------



## ian

Especially if lots of people refuse to take it, which seems (inconceivably) probable.


----------



## jacko9

Just in case .......

DB Edit: Jack, I get that you have strong political feelings. That's fine.

BUT NOT HERE!

The rules are clear. And while they're relaxed abit for this part of forum they still apply to biased rants. Pro tip: If you're citing CNN, FOX or any of the politically charged websites, you're not making an argument. Pls stop.

And I fully realize you think your biased rants are not rants at all but are special insights into how things really work.

Pls stop.


----------



## Barmoley

ian said:


> Especially if lots of people refuse to take it, which seems (inconceivably) probable.


Why is it inconceivable to not want to be the first to take a vaccine that was rushed to market for a disease that is not extremely deadly for the majority of the population. I can understand why some people are hesitant. We've been brainwashed by the FDA that drugs and vaccines need years and years of testing and that we can't buy and use drugs from other countries that have been used there for years if not FDA approved. Are you saying we've been lied to?


----------



## ian

Barmoley said:


> Why is it inconceivable to not want to be the first to take a vaccine that was rushed to market for a disease that is not extremely deadly for the majority of the population. I can understand why some people are hesitant. We've been brainwashed by the FDA that drugs and vaccines need years and years of testing and that we can't buy and use drugs from other countries that have been used there for years if not FDA approved. Are you saying we've been lied to?



You’re right, I mispoke. It’s not inconceivable, it’s unhelpful.

From what I understand, there is no indication that any of the usual steps have been skipped in the development of the vaccine. Things are proceeding more quickly because we’re in a pandemic, so there’s great urgency for the work, and lots of money funneled into it. A few month ago, everyone was like “do we really have to wait 4 years for a vaccine?” and now that there are a couple in later stages of development, people are like “oh, now that’s too fast!”. If a lot of scientists actually start saying they have misgivings about the way it was developed, and cite skipped steps in the process, then yea, we should think twice. But currently, no experts are saying that, at least to my knowledge.

It’s unhelpful not to take it because lots of people are dying, getting really sick, and the economy is tanking. Reducing spread is the only way to stop this, and a vaccine that has passed all the required hurdles (even on an accelerated schedule) has an extremely good chance of helping with this. Even healthy 20 somethings need to take it, because they’re contributing to the spread.


----------



## Barmoley

ian said:


> You’re right, I mispoke. It’s not inconceivable, it’s dangerous and a bit selfish.
> 
> From what I understand, there is no indication that any of the usual steps have been skipped in the development of the vaccine. Things are proceeding more quickly because we’re in a pandemic, so there’s great urgency for the work, and lots of money funneled into it. A few month ago, everyone was like “do we really have to wait 4 years for a vaccine?” and now that there are a couple in later stages of development, people are like “oh, now that’s too fast!”. If a lot of scientists actually start saying they have misgivings about the way it was developed, and cite skipped steps in the process, then yea, we should think twice. But currently, no experts are saying that.
> 
> It’s selfish not to take it because lots of people are dying, getting really sick, and the economy is tanking. Reducing spread is the only way to stop this, and a vaccine that has passed all the required hurdles (even on an accelerated schedule) has an extremely good chance of helping with this. Even healthy 20 somethings need to take it, because they’re contributing to the spread.
> 
> edit: sorry, that came off too harsh. It’s true that it’s totally understandable to feel that way. I just think it’s not going to be helpful.


It is absolutely not helpful, but my point is, it is understandable. People are also rightfully skeptical that something that usually takes years to develop and to study side effects can take month, no matter how much money is poured into it. Some things just take time. It is also understandable why people are skeptical about truthfulness of experts and officials who have huge incentives to hide skipped steps or questionable practices. Bottom line is, it is not realistic to expect 100% of the population to agree to a vaccine. We should definitely vaccinate the most vulnerable and as many people as possible, but there will still be a large portion of the population that will refuse.


----------



## ian

@daveb, @jacko9

I wouldn’t have called what he wrote a biased rant. Most of it was fact paired with some arguable extrapolation. (I don’t remember the post completely though.) Makes sense to delete the post as violating the politics rule, but the way it currently reads makes you think that jacko9 said something totally unhinged.


----------



## ian

Barmoley said:


> It is absolutely not helpful, but my point is, it is understandable. People are also rightfully skeptical that something that usually takes years to develop and to study side effects can take month, no matter how much money is poured into it. Some things just take time. It is also understandable why people are skeptical about truthfulness of experts and officials who have huge incentives to hide skipped steps or questionable practices. Bottom line is, it is not realistic to expect 100% of the population to agree to a vaccine. We should definitely vaccinate the most vulnerable and as many people as possible, but there will still be a large portion of the population that will refuse.



Yea, totally. I was agreeing with your correction to my post, while also explaining why it’s unhelpful (just for completeness) and saying why past timelines for vaccines aren’t as relevant in this situation.

Also, I’m uncomfortable leaving it as “understandable”, because while it is completely understandable it’s also very not ok. If a safe and effective vaccine is developed, I really hope that there’s an equally effective campaign to get people to take it.


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## Barmoley

ian said:


> Yea, totally. I was agreeing with your correction to my post, while also explaining why it’s unhelpful (just for completeness) and saying why past timelines for vaccines aren’t as relevant in this situation.
> 
> Also, I’m uncomfortable leaving it as “understandable”, because while it is completely understandable it’s also very not ok. If a safe and effective vaccine is developed, I really hope that there’s an equally effective campaign to get people to take it.


Understandable is just that. Not defending it or excusing it or even agreeing with it, but I understand it. Operative words are safe and effective, which is exactly what people are questioning. In more authoritative countries people will be forced to take it. In the US it is more difficult unless we make it a prerequisite for a job, school, restaurant. Then you'll need to be able to prove that you got it. It is unrealistic to expect most people to risk their health and potentially lives for a theoretical good for people they don't know. Here's an analogy, we now have science to build nuclear reactors that are very, very safe and small enough to power small cities. These would solve our energy issues better than anything else. Yet even when scientists and experts explain it and people in general agree that these are safe, can't explode, leak or be weaponized, they still don't want to live next to them. Selfish, yes, but understandable.


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## ian

Barmoley said:


> It is unrealistic to expect most people to risk their health and potentially lives for a theoretical good for people they don't know.



I think this plays up the risks too much. Yea, there may be some risk of side effect, but if the side effects from the vaccine are more dangerous than actually getting covid, even for healthy 20 somethings, that would be a vaccine that’s a catastrophic failure. Not taking a vaccine is also a risk.

Also, the good is not theoretical. Having the country open up is an unqualified benefit to everyone, even the perfectly healthy 20-something with no older relatives or friends. And not taking the vaccine is hindering that. Or maybe the point is: how is *my* individual vaccination going to significantly contribute to the country opening up. Then yea, I guess that’s a problem, but it’s not a new problem. Hopefully there can be a clear enough message to counter some of these concerns...


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## ian

Barmoley said:


> Yet even when scientists and experts explain it and people in general agree that these are safe, can't explode, leak or be weaponized, they still don't want to live next to them. Selfish, yes, but understandable.



I get that more, because by living next to a plant you’re taking on an outsized proportion of the risk. It’s not like the risk is distributed evenly over the population, like it would be with a vaccine. And also, the threat of climate change is more long term and harder to process (even if it’s just as important), so it makes sense that people will be less likely to view it as crucial to substitute that coal power plant with a nuclear one than to make steps toward quelling the global pandemic.

But yea, similar situations.


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## Luftmensch

I think the development of a vaccine has been expedited because:

suddenly people are interested in science and willing to pour rivers of money into a problem they believe they can make money out of
The deals going on behind the scene would probably boggle the mind. Countries are betting certain vaccines under development will work and have places orders for millions of doses.

medical technology has advanced in the past 10-20 years
scientists were studying similar viruses and problems before the pandemic
For background, medical trials occur in three phases. Briefly:

Phase I studies are done on small numbers (~10s) of people to identify any major problem with safety and determine a safe dosage range.
Phase II studies are done on mid-sized numbers (~10s-100s) of people to determine the efficacy of response and to further verify its safety. 
Phase III studies are done on large groups of patients (~100s-1000s) and compared to other standards of treatment. Again these studies are designed to determine the efficacy of response and monitory safety. Due to the larger number of participants rare but serious side effects might be observed. You can also increase your confidence that no adverse immune reactions are sparked (Immunopathology - like a cytokine storm) when patients are exposed to the virus .
Promising vaccines have only recently reached phase-III. The historical success rate in phase III is pretty much a toss of the coin. So I wouldn't bet the family farm we'll even have the privilege of forcing people to take a vaccine by the end of the year...


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## Dave Martell




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## ian

Dave Martell said:


> View attachment 89138



In other news, a quick google search indicates that 3,000 people died from polio in 1952. Compare that number to 10. Maybe vaccines are a net good, especially considering that now polio is gone?

Disclaimer: I haven’t independently verified the stats in the above pic, nor have I done much research about my own stats besides looking at google. But I’ll say it again, NOT taking a vaccine is a risk too!


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## jacko9

It's a matter of trust


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## juice

ian said:


> Disclaimer: I haven’t independently verified the stats in the above pic, nor have I done much research about my own stats besides looking at google. But I’ll say it again, NOT taking a vaccine is a risk too!


I'm all for proven vaccines, but I'm not so sure I'm as enthusiastic about ones developed at "warp-speed" and insufficiently tested.


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## ian

juice said:


> I'm all for proven vaccines, but I'm not so sure I'm as enthusiastic about ones developed at "warp-speed" and insufficiently tested.



The speed itself is not a problem. It’s a pandemic, so we damn well should be working on things at warp speed. As I was saying above somewhere, I’m currently unaware of any vaccine that’s actually jumping over any of the usual tests. Are you? I’m happy to be skeptical of any that are, for sure.


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## jacko9

juice said:


> I'm all for proven vaccines, but I'm not so sure I'm as enthusiastic about ones developed at "warp-speed" and insufficiently tested.



I agree there is a procedure that has been proven over time and there are too many people getting fired if they don't show the right results. (I didn't mention anyone so I hope this fits in the rules).


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## ian

I just worry that so many people will
think like that that the eventual vaccine will be less effective, no matter if its development was politically compromised or not... (and so far, there is to my knowledge no sign that it is.)


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## jacko9

ian said:


> I just worry that so many people will
> think like that that the eventual vaccine will be less effective, no matter if its development was politically compromised or not... (and so far, there is to my knowledge no sign that it is.)



I'm trying to walk the line of being non-political but, when you say that it's a pandemic and we should be working on it at warp speed please remember that this pandemic was known as early as 12/2019 or 1/2020 and nothing was done about it for months. So forgive my skepticism and the latest warp speed development. I want this crap to be gone as much as anybody else after all I'm going on 76 years old and I find a lot of the rest of my life is sitting at home when I'm physically able to be quite active.


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## ian

jacko9 said:


> I'm trying to walk the line of being non-political but, when you say that it's a pandemic and we should be working on it at warp speed please remember that this pandemic was known as early as 12/2019 or 1/2020 and nothing was done about it for months



There’s nothing political about this argument, and I think you’re imagining my political views are different from what they are. Saying that we should work super fast to get a vaccine to end the global pandemic seems.... uncontroversial.... to me, as long as you’re not skipping steps. The unfortunate fact that nothing was done in the US in the early months of the pandemic is beside the point.


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## ian

On the other hand, there are articles like this one that are worrisome. Maybe the thing to worry about is if a vaccine is given "emergency approval"? It seems from the article that mostly people are worried that the administration WILL do something like that, not that it already has. Anyway, eyes open and all that.


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## jacko9

ian said:


> On the other hand, there are articles like this one that are worrisome. Maybe the thing to worry about is if a vaccine is given "emergency approval"? It seems from the article that mostly people are worried that the administration WILL do something like that, not that it already has. Anyway, eyes open and all that.



I tried to point that out in my earlier posts (but I guess I got too political) and they were deemed against the rules. Alright I won't go there but, as you have noted that there is a healthy skepticism with this current approval process and at my age I'm not sure I want to take that calculated risk.


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## juice

ian said:


> I’m currently unaware of any vaccine that’s actually jumping over any of the usual tests. Are you? I’m happy to be skeptical of any that are, for sure.


I am worried about things like this - once the money is invested, they will want a return on it. And it would be fair to say that India doesn't have a stellar rep in terms of pharmaceuticals.









Serum Institute investing USD 100 million on potential COVID-19 vaccine, Health News, ET HealthWorld


"Our manufacturing facility is ready and we plan to start production in two months. We are spending more than USD 100 million for this facility. Till the trials are completed successfully for safety and efficacy, vaccines will not be distributed either in India or anywhere else in the world,"...




health.economictimes.indiatimes.com





I'm also worried that the final-stage testing - which is the one that takes the longest, as they're past the "does it kill people straight away?" part of testing - is the bit that's going to be rushed, because that's where the biggest time gains can be made.



jacko9 said:


> this pandemic was known as early as 12/2019 or 1/2020 and nothing was done about it for months.


It wasn't actioned in the US by the administration, but certainly work was being done elsewhere by countries and companies that were acting on the reality of the situation.



ian said:


> On the other hand, there are articles like this one that are worrisome. Maybe the thing to worry about is if a vaccine is given "emergency approval"?


Yeah, agreed. Or if it's given emergency approval and it's reported as being fully tested because the end of the year and events surrounding that are approaching so good news is required, as you say.


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## Michi

Here is a well-written and very informative article about polio and its history. It contains the picture that @Dave Martell posted, too. It also contains a graph of the number of polio cases in the US over the years:




The sharp drop in polio cases coincides with the introduction of the polio vaccine.


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## jacko9

I don't think I'm the only one concerned about a deadline that coincides with an election. Scientists Worry About Political Influence Over Coronavirus Vaccine Project


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## Dave Martell

This doesn't instill confidence...









Reuters | Breaking International News & Views


Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.




uk.reuters.com


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## daveb

@ JackO

More opinion presented as fact.

Scientists (today) are like dog trainers - the only thing two of them will agree on is that a third doesn't know what he's talking about.


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## juice

daveb said:


> More opinion presented as fact.


Article quotes reputable sources (Offit, Fauci, etc.) and has plenty of context. It's a well-written article, IMHO.



daveb said:


> Scientists (today) are like dog trainers - the only thing two of them will agree on is that a third doesn't know what he's talking about.


This, unfortunately, is all too true. On a related note, I remember when "peer-review" used to mean something. Well, it seemed to, maybe the process has just become more transparent over time.


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## ian

As a scientist, I find these blanket dismissals of scientists pretty inaccurate and a bit annoying.


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## ian

It’s always possible for an incorrect article to get through a peer review process, since reviewers are not infallible and don’t have all the time in the world to think about an article for months. Just ask me... often I find I have to devote an entire week of research time to reviewing an article if it’s sufficiently long and complicated. And this is uncompensated, anonymous labor for the good of the field. Even so, there are always things I miss.

If a paper is particularly important, though, its results will be studied more generally, and/or reproduced. So things that are false are generally exposed before too long. I imagine it’s hard for people studying covid because

1) there’s great urgency to post even partial results quickly,
2) the situation is so urgent that everyone keeps looking at these papers like right after they’re posted
3) there are so many unknowns about covid

and also importantly, because politicians and the media keep picking up these papers and coloring the presentation of the findings.


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## juice

ian said:


> And this is uncompensated, anonymous labor for the good of the field.


And yet the publishing companies make a fortune off all this skilled unpaid work, unfortunately 

Which area do you work in?


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## ian

juice said:


> And yet the publishing companies make a fortune off all this skilled unpaid work, unfortunately
> 
> Which area do you work in?



Math, so pretty far away from covid.


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## juice

ian said:


> Math, so pretty far away from covid.


So cool (said absolutely non-ironically  My dad did his PhD in civil engineering (back before it was all made easy by "computers" ) so that was pretty maths intensive (I think it was called "motion of a wheel in clay" or similarly exciting), but pure maths is something that fascinates me, probably because I can't even start to get my ADHD-head around it  

I do apologise if it seemed above that I was bagging all scientists, that was certainly not the intent. I'm just a bit jaded as a result of "nutrition science" (which isn't really a science at all, it seems) and its "peer review" process, and I REALLY need to remember that. Anyway, my apologies.


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## M1k3

The sky isn't falling. Not everything you hear is true. Not everything you hear is false. Some things don't fall in the absolute category and can change as more is known.

Be sceptical but don't stick your head in the sand.


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## WildBoar

juice said:


> So cool (said absolutely non-ironically  My dad did his PhD in civil engineering (back before it was all made easy by "computers" ) so that was pretty maths intensive (I think it was called "motion of a wheel in clay" or similarly exciting), but pure maths is something that fascinates me, probably because I can't even start to get my ADHD-head around it


Too funny. My 7-year-old son wanted me to teach him multiplication today so he can sign up for online computer courses and come work for my civil engineering company later this summer. He made it 3 columns through writing up a multiplication table and decided to go play video games on his tablet instead.


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## McMan

M1k3 said:


> The sky isn't falling. Not everything you hear is true. Not everything you hear is false. Some things don't fall in the absolute category and can change as more is known.
> 
> Be sceptical but don't stick your head in the sand.


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## Luftmensch

While science is undoubtedly the best system for information acquisition, like many facets of modern society, bean-counting is chipping away at its integrity.

Globally, universities are finding ways to monetise their institutions. This can mean a re-prioritisation from fundamental research to churning out fee-paying students. In research a "publish or perish" paradigm has emerged - basically academics have to keep up their research KPI's if they want to keep their increasingly insecure jobs. Publishers are having a field day with this. So many rubbish journals are bubbling out of the wood work.

While high quality, fundamental research has not declined, it is being swamped by mediocre research. It is not necessarily that this research is wrong or of zero value... but now that the publishing market is so big, there is an explosion of incremental research where academics are choosing to "slice the salami thin". This is done, in part, to get findings out early (because the fields are so competitive). And in part, to game the KPIs to make themselves look more prolific (better to publish 4 times a year rather than once right? even if the research content is the same).


Don't read this wrong... I don't doubt academia as a process _at all_. I am just disappointed in the system academics find themselves in.


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