# electric cars.



## inferno (Dec 14, 2019)

Does anyone have an electric car?
Do you like it?
whats good and whats bad?

on my job all the paper pushers are getting teslas, apparantly. basically the company leases the car for them and they get a raise, to pay for the cars lease-cost  which is drawn on the salary. i really loooove this scheme.

i used to live in norway, and they have lots of teslas there.
it was not because of "the environment" (its an oil producing country...)
on my street there was 3 teslas. 

In norway the gov wanted to push electric cars so there was some benefits with electric cars: 

*park for free whereever you wanted pretty much.
*no tolls going into the citys (about 2-3€$ each time)
*no VAT
*No horsepower added cost, and in norway you pay like 100 €/$ per HP over 130-150hp or so on a new car.
usually *any* 4-500Hp car cost about 150-250k €/$ with all the environmental crap payed.
*you can drive in the bus lane (saving 2h a day in oslo)

But i think most of these benefits no one really cared about. its was the _driving in the bus lane_ that was the big seller, save time.

do these benefits exist in other countries too?

i have a few bicycles. i ride them every day to and from work. about 25km in total. its very environmentally friendly. my company doesn't even want to pay for my studded winter tires. 
or give me any extra money for me staying healthy. but they can gladly pay for your gym membership that you use once a month... because it makes you healthy...


----------



## ma_sha1 (Dec 14, 2019)

I am slow in adopting the electric car, missing the sound of a good engine too much. But if I get a raise just to pay for the tasla, I’d probably be on board, sounds like too good of a scheme to pass up.


----------



## Random (Dec 14, 2019)

I owned a Prius (Hybrid gas/electric) for about three years and it was a trouble-free car. 70 mpg.

Only traded it because I needed a pickup for work. The difference in fuel costs was shocking.


----------



## bahamaroot (Dec 14, 2019)

In the US you get a one time federal tax credit of $2500-5000 when you purchase an electric or hybrid vehicle. In certain states there are also other benefits such as lower vehicle registration rates, low cost loans and driving in carpool lanes among others.

If I was given a raise to cover the cost of a lease if I got a Tesla I'd be all over that!


----------



## inferno (Dec 14, 2019)

me 2. but i'm a "worker" so i dont get these benefits. i dont even get tires for my bike.
if i'm lucky i'd get to suck a dong. I dont feel lucky though. but you never know.


----------



## inferno (Dec 14, 2019)

i just sms:ed my boss telling him i needed a 1k €$£ raise a month.

and that i would also need a tesla from now on. but none of these fagg0t ones with only 400hp, but the real ones with 700hp.

its only 4 in the morning here. we'll se how it goes. i think i have a good bargaining standpoint. he's gonna love this.


----------



## WildBoar (Dec 14, 2019)

as long as he doesn't screw you over by giving you a Prius instead...


----------



## inferno (Dec 15, 2019)

we dont have any contracts with toyota. so i guess itas not gonna happen. i actually dont give a f what shows up. as long as its free. gotta set the bar high though. they always weasel themselves out of most things.


----------



## rob (Dec 15, 2019)

If your gonna set the bar high, ask for (demand). Porsche Taycan.

750 HP. 1050NM Tourque 0-100 in 2.6.

Nothing wimpy about those figures.


----------



## inferno (Dec 15, 2019)

sounds reasonable. however even our president drives a volvo now so it might not be welcomed very much. and its very obvious with a porsche since it says porsche on it...


----------



## rob (Dec 15, 2019)

Don't like ya chances.


----------



## inferno (Dec 15, 2019)

its all i do.


----------



## inferno (Dec 15, 2019)

if i could be fired, in practice, i would have been fired like 10 times by now. 

we start working at 7. i usually show up at 8.30. people get pissed off. and i get it. but i'm tired in the morning. so what can i say. 

i have at least been on time 2 times since 2017! and thats quite good i think. for me. one time i even came 6.30.


----------



## lancep (Dec 15, 2019)

I just purchased the Tesla 3. Prior to that I had a 2017 BMW i3 Rex, which I leased. 

I really like the electric cars. They are a ton of fun to drive given their instantaneous torque and low center of gravity. They are also quiet.

It is also quite nice that you can charge at home, overnight, and pretty much always have a full charge when you leave in the morning.

The BMW's electric range was only around 110 miles, and less in cold weather. For me, that was fine. It also had a small motor and gas tank, so running out of power was never a concern. But going on long drives with the BMW was not really an option, because the gas tank was tiny and rapid recharging wasn't all that widely available.

The Model 3 has about 250 miles of range, which is a lot, and with the prevalence of superchargers, I can easily see taking it on road trips, unlike the BMW.

The electric vehicles also require less maintenance. In 3 years, I didn't require any service on my BMW.

So, in general, the electric vehicles are really very convenient. They also have much lower operating costs, as their efficiency really can save you money. The model 3 is the most efficient car currently made, which is a function of the inherent efficiency of electric vehicles, plus a lot of intelligent engineering by Tesla.

One downside to these vehicles is their tires seem to wear out pretty quickly (at least this was certainly the case with my BMW). Also, cold weather does reduce their range, and so does high-speed driving (air resistance, which is the major energy consumer at speed, increases proportional to the square of speed, so driving at 85mph uses a lot more energy than driving at 65).

The fact of the matter is (imo) we are running out of time to avoid massive disaster from global warming. A transition to EV's is one part of the solution to that problem, albeit only a part.


----------



## Dave Martell (Dec 17, 2019)

Do these electric cars come with a diesel generator to tow behind them for re-charging?


----------



## Michi (Dec 19, 2019)

Range anxiety is pretty much a thing of the past now. On a full charge, a Model 3 (performance version) goes about as far as the average petrol car on a single tank. And superchargers are being added all the time. It's not quite the flexibility right now that you get with a petrol car for long trips, or trips to remote areas but, in most situations, the range is plenty good enough.


----------



## Barmoley (Dec 19, 2019)

The range is one thing, but how long it takes to recharge to 100% is another, still not as convenient as a normal car, getting better though. For me the greatest benefit of electric is the power delivery, instant torque just can't be matched with anything else. The environmental impact is so confusing and difficult to figure out because of politics that it is not clear if these are any better over all. Also, at least in the US, if everyone switched to electric, the electric grid would go kaput the first night everyone plugged in.

Does anyone know why they don't make diesel/electric hybrids, seems like that would work really well. There was a test of a prototype MB that was such a hybrid and it ran very far on one (extended capacity) tank.


----------



## daveb (Dec 19, 2019)

In the 90's I was project mgr for the USAF electric and hybrid electric vehicle program. Did a 12M acquisition of some diesel hybrids that challenged the technology available at the time. Biggest hurdle was the regenerative braking system. Batteries were not easy either. 

Ended up with modified aircraft tow tractors where the instant torque helped a lot with precise placement. And with some DV vans on a F350 frame (like a rental car shuttle but fancy) that we used in shows. Was kind of cool to drive from the Pentagon into DC and switch to all electric when crossing the bridge. Did find out quickly that when you turned the diesel off, that people around you assumed the vehicle was stopped. Evolution in action.

Politics started the program and in the end killed it. I remember doing a break-even analysis using gas as one of the variables. I plotted up to $3/gal (gas was cheaper than water at the time) and was told gas would never be that high.

Somewhere I have a picture of my dog, the first dog to ride in the back of an electric pickup truck.


----------



## Matus (Dec 20, 2019)

In my opinion - with the current technology level when it comes to batteries - the best use are small (and possibly light-weight) electric car with short to medium range, as that requires less of the batteries (which are energy- intensive in production and, unfortunately, also very non-ecological). When long range electric cars are compared to cars with combustion engine - there is either little or none CO2 reduction (at least here in Germany), as most electricity in the world is still made from burning fossil fuels.

On energy economy - the already mentioned Tesla is not any particularly good - based on tests in real conditions the car need around 20 kWh per 100 km - what is a rather average value today.

I do think that electric cars are - looking at the options today - the future of automobile industry and will not be taken over by hydrogen anytime soon (energy efficiency of producing / storing it), but it could happen in the future. One of the potential issues is safety. 

Our next car (planned acquisition is next year) will most likely not be electric, though I am attracted by the idea. I am just not interested in 1+ tonne heavy car as the weight is the main factor in fuel efficiency in the city (the recuperation efficiency is far from 100%, so the weight matters)


----------



## Michi (Dec 20, 2019)

The overall CO2 footprint of a car, including manufacture of the car and its batteries, the CO2 it causes to be emitted during its use, and CO2 emission during decommissioning (disassembly, recycling, and disposal) varies a lot depending on country and how the electricity that is used by the car is generated.

I have seen various figures. As a rough guide, over its entire life cycle, an electric car has about half the CO2 footprint of a petrol car. As I said, this can vary up or down depending on lots of factors. But, looking forward, I think it is the future of the car in the near term. Long term, I think we'll be looking at less travel, more mass transportation, and "clouds" of cars that are shared instead of being owned individually.

Here is a fairly short article that provides an overview:

http://theconversation.com/climate-...otprint-of-electric-versus-fossil-cars-124762


----------



## Luftmensch (Dec 20, 2019)

inferno said:


> whats good and whats bad?



Whats good:

'instantaneous' torque for faster acceleration than internal combustion
Mechanical simiplicity - fewer moving parts
Potentially more eco
It is easier to engineer tightly integrated safety/control systems in electric systems - aka the potential for more driver 'features'
Quiet
Some regions offer subsidies for purchasing/running/parking them
Whats bad:

Not as fast (top speed) as internal combustion - back EMF reduces the torque available at high RPM
Heavy
Limited range



inferno said:


> on my job all the paper pushers are getting teslas



Urgh... Tesla... dont get me started. It bothers me that Musk is lionised - I view him as a bit of a Charlatan. Very sick of him being hailed as some modern Edison. I can see how middle management would be self congratulatory about being part of this hype. Don't get me wrong, there is some cool engineering at Tesla. They make great batteries. Take all the glamour and hype away and I am not so sure the value of engineering purchased is amazing. 

I'll give Tesla and Musk this... pushing the technology early and winning public support is making it difficult for the automotive giants to ignore electric vehicles. So Tesla is helping spur competition and catalysing demand for these products. In a world that needs to be more green... this is a good thing... a very good thing!



inferno said:


> i have a few bicycles. i ride them every day to and from work. about 25km in total. its very environmentally friendly. my company doesn't even want to pay for my studded winter tires.
> or give me any extra money for me staying healthy. but they can gladly pay for your gym membership that you use once a month... because it makes you healthy...



Good for you! I don't know why companies will have employee oriented policies but then be completely rigid because 'it isnt policy'. Well... I guess I do... but so be it...


----------



## Michi (Dec 20, 2019)

Luftmensch said:


> Mechanical simiplicity - fewer moving parts


^ This.

Besides being more friendly to the planet, an electric car has around 3,000 fewer parts than a petrol car. Just reeling off a few things, without doing any proper research, an electric car does _not_ have any of these things: engine (probably around 1,500 parts or thereabouts right there), radiator, cooling fan with motor or fan belt, alternator, turbo or supercharger, oil filter or air filter, oil cooler, carburettor or fuel injectors, distributor, fuel pump, clutch, transmission, exhaust system.

That alone would be sufficient for me to buy an electric car, even if it weren't ecologically better than a petrol car. There is very little to go wrong with a car that doesn't have all these things. The things that _are_ there last longer and are almost completely maintenance free, and the things that are _not_ there cannot possible fail. Even brakes last way longer due to regenerative braking from the motors. The main wear items on an electric car are tyres and batteries (which have a limited number of charge cycles). There is almost nothing else that will need attention during the 10–15 year expected lifespan of the vehicle, other than windscreen wipers and the odd pollen filter for the aircon.

Yes, an electric car is comparatively expensive right now. But it is also hugely more reliable than a petrol car because there a so many fewer things to go wrong, especially as the car ages.

I'm planning to buy a Tesla Model 3 in the next few months. It's better for the planet, it's better for my wallet once I actually own the car, and it's the ethically and environmentally correct thing to do, in my opinion. To boot, I get performance that can only be bettered by supercars that cost north of $200,000. (I know that a Tesla isn't a performance car in the same way that a Lamborghini or Koenigsegg is. But that's beside the point: a Tesla costs only a fraction of those and, for anything a normal person will do on a normal road—not a racetrack—a Model 3 runs rings around all but the most extreme of cars.)

Oh yes, I can also do a 0–100 run in 3.5 seconds in the middle of the night without waking up everyone within 200 meters of me. In other words, I can be a hoon without actually being recognised as one 

Right now, electric cars have moved from the lunatic fringe to the early adopter phase. Five years from now (at the latest), they will be early majority. Ten years from now, anyone with a petrol car will be moving from late majority into the laggard phase.

It's inevitable.


----------



## da_mich* (Dec 20, 2019)

3 months ago i tried to buy a hybrid Volvo but it´s a joke! It´s a 2t kombie with tiny luggage space. The luggage space of a VW Lupo is bigger.


----------



## Luftmensch (Dec 20, 2019)

Michi said:


> There is very little to go wrong with a car that doesn't have all these things. The things that _are_ there last longer and are almost completely maintenance free, and the things are _not_ there cannot possible fail.



1000% percent. Woe betide your friendly mechanic who is not considering this future!

I am very pleased this thread has not conflated _autonomous_ driving with _electric_ vehicles. I am all for electric cars yesterday! But am super-conservative about autonomous cars tomorrow.... It is good to separate the two. Tesla blurred the lines a little. Speaking of things that _can_ fail - high level software is one of them.

I have little doubt that there is a pretty solid separation between basic control systems and higher autonomy or gimmicks in Tesla vehicles. It is unlikely superficial changes to the vehicle software will impact basic control but this is a new frontier that regulators are not necessarily being bearish enough about. That said, they have been pretty aggressive in getting 'autopilot' out there and changing the dashboard interface. Pushing over the air updates can be brilliant in the best case and lethal in the worst. I am not so sure I want an automotive company pushing Easter eggs and entertainment into their cars on an evolving basis.... 



Michi said:


> I'm planning to buy a Tesla Model 3



Good for you! Perhaps you'll let us know how it goes. I'm willing to be you'll have a blast!



Michi said:


> Oh yes, I can also do a 0–100 run in 3.5 seconds in the middle of the night without waking up everyone within 200 meters of me. In other words, I can be a hoon without actually being recognised as one



Michi! I never took you for the summernats type


----------



## Oui Chef (Dec 20, 2019)

Luftmensch said:


> .. Tesla... dont get me started. It bothers me that Musk is lionised - I view him as a bit of a Charlatan.



Gotta ask how you find him to be a charlatan
(Sorry for off topic)


----------



## WildBoar (Dec 20, 2019)

Michi said:


> That alone would be sufficient for me to buy an electric car, even if it weren't ecologically better than a petrol car. There is very little to go wrong with a car that doesn't have all these things. The things that _are_ there last longer and are almost completely maintenance free, and the things are _not_ there cannot possible fail. Even brakes last way longer due to regenerative braking from the motors. The main wear items on an electric car are tyres and batteries (which have a limited number of charge cycles).


I'm the opposite. Mechanical things wear out and can be fixed/ replaced. When electronics crap out they can rarely be trouble-shot in an economical manner. The less electronics the better for me. One dang 5 cent surface-mounted part on a control board goes bad, and they tell you you need to replace the $1,500 board. A capacitor in a control unit goes bad? Easy fix for any electronics technician, but car repair shops will not screw around with that and will only sell you/ install new/ reconditioned modules. Want to get that car with a bad control board back on the rod when it is 20 years old? Sorry, that board is no longer made; throw the car out and buy a new one. The worst thing is lower quality parts are being spit out in some parts of the world, assuring that in the future the electronics in the car will likely have more problems, not less. More people will be at the mercy of dealerships, and have less opportunity to keep their cars in good shape by working on them themselves. Maybe not much of an issue with young urbanites who do not really want cars anyway, but people who live out in rural areas with no dealerships, etc. for hundreds of miles will have a rough time if the local Cooter's Garage cannot deal with all of the electronics.


----------



## Michi (Dec 20, 2019)

WildBoar said:


> I'm the opposite. Mechanical things wear out and can be fixed/ replaced. When electronics crap out they can rarely be trouble-shot in an economical manner.


I hear you on this. I'm pissed off by that, too.

When I'm not cooking, I'm a competitive pinball player. Pinball machines are expensive, have lots of parts, and break down often. When they do, I have to take a screwdriver, soldering iron, or whatever, and fix them. Up until a few years ago, that was easy. Because everything was discrete components, and I didn't need a hot air soldering station to deal with surface-mount components.

Now, it's not just surface-mount, it's that a modern pinball machine has the playfield populated with node boards that have their own CPU, run ethernet through the machine back to the main CPU, and also have (surface mounted) LEDs on them. When one of those LEDs fails, I get to replace the entire node board. At $200 a pop. In order to make a light work that is driven by a 5 cent LED.

Yet, this is the exact same thing that cars have been doing for decades. Once upon a time, I could buy the cover glass for the left rear break light and the left rear indicator separately—for a few dollars. Today, break light, driving light, and indicator are all part of one integrated unit, including the assembly that holds the the whole shebang together, and I can't fix anything, except replace the entire thing. For around $500.

Why did people decide to do this? Simple: because it's _better_ and because it is _cheaper_. Not just for the manufacturer, but also for the consumer. The cost of a car today in real terms (both purchase price and cost of maintenance) is a small fraction of what it was thirty years ago. All the waste and the inability to fix things irk me, too. But, objectively, that's better than me going back to my Fiat 127 from 1975, where I could fix absolutely everything with a handful of tools.

And I _did_ fix absolutely everything on that Fiat. Usually once every month or two. Because that's how often something in that car stopped working. We complain about the complexity of modern cars, while conveniently forgetting how much better and how much more reliable they are.

The car I drive today (VW Golf R32) is around ten years old and has had a breakdown exactly once in all that time. That breakdown was caused by a mechanic incorrectly installing a drive belt during a routine service. In other words, my car _never_ has had a real breakdown in more than ten years.

As for the autonomous driving thing, as a software engineer, I am extremely certain that I won't be using that. Not in my life time. I'm not going to be a beta tester for Tesla, informing them that they have a bug by potentially being dead.

Besides, even _if_ I shell out $8,000 for the future upcoming autonomous driving update, I may never be allowed to use it. Because the whole notion of autonomous driving is a legal minefield, and there is no guarantee that, by the time Tesla decide to deliver the update, my government will even allow me to use it.


----------



## Luftmensch (Dec 20, 2019)

Oui Chef said:


> Gotta ask how you find him to be a charlatan
> (Sorry for off topic)



Oh man... I can't not bite - not because I shouldnt be baited... but because I raised it and you asked: fair game.

Let me preface this with the following observation. I love that he is pushing green technology into the consumer market. I love that he is helping to commercialise space (and hate it at the same time). He has done VERY well bootstrapping his wealth from one company/idea to another. And that takes skill. Either way you cut it he must be business savvy and imaginative.

What sort of made me throw in the towel was raking through morsels on Netflix. Im pretty sure it was _two_ sci-fi programs. Both set in the future where they referenced Musk in the same breath as the likes of Edison.

<rant>

He has not changed physics or made any personally made any technological leaps. He is a super wealthy guy who has channelled his wealth into pet projects. These projects are supported by massive armies of engineers (I guess in this regard he is like Steve Jobs). Wealth does not buy you intelligence. Has he actually done anything fundamental enough to be regarded as a great innovator of our time? Personally; I just don't believe he is as smart as people fluff him up to be... imaginative; maybe - but that is easier when you are worth >$20B and can surround yourself with the smartest minds.

Did he create PayPal? No... he co-founded a company that merged with another to eventually form PayPal Did he create Tesla? No... he joined on the board of directors as an investor and eventually assumed leadership (CEO). I don't know if he propagates these ideas but he is certainly happy to let the zeitgeist run away with them. Did he create SpaceX? Yes... this is a project he started from the ground up. Props to him!

Literal meaning of the word charlatan? At Tesla they have always been one year off mass production despite massive delays (Model X & Model 3). I believe these statements were made as known falsehoods - either that or top level management thought they could flog their staff into unreasonable deadlines. Choose your preferred poison. The whole "funding secured" tweet?

Running a car company like a tech business? Seriously? Reserving/pre-ordering a car from the new kid on the block? How about you give me $100 interest free for un-unknown period for un-known results... Or how about I actually just sell you a functional car now? People would scorn GM for doing this.

Taken as a whole, this guy is brilliant at manipulating public sentiment to bump up share price or corporate optics.

Grey areas in pushing technology 'out there'? Tesla deliberately blurred the lines between autonomous driving and lane following++. Why is it that all the other major car companies and massive technology companies are 'behind'? Are they? Or are they more conservative and just dont want to end up on the front page for killing or maiming people? Again with the tech business... Your phone might update every month... do you want your car to do this? No _actually_? Think about it. How do you know that cute little dance your car now does wont cause your brakes to fail at highway speeds (ok... highly unlikely but the level of 'testing' is extremely opaque to the consumer). Minimally... how do you feel about your car 'dashboard' changing every 12 months because it is now 'better'.

And on just being a ****** human. When you have an ego the size of tha galactic core why not use a situation on the brink of tragedy as a PR stunt. Imagine all your 'brilliance' and wealth being reduced as a "surplus to requirements". If some "nobody" actually provides a real skill and informed opinion... slag them off as a "pedo". Then double down... of course!

Finally... the whole AI existential threat thing? Yes. The impact of AI on humanity has the potential to be profound. We should be as forward looking as possible. Existential threat? I may as well write a scifi series that taps into the end of days prophecy meme. General intelligence is so far off it is like worrying about "overpopulation on Mars". There are some present existential threats - why not tackle them? How about you use your extraordinary wealth to de-carbonise our economy, maximise nuclear disarmament or minimise the spread of disease?

</rant>

But kitchen knives are cool (<- I mentioned this so the thread should be kosher. Right?  Also I didnt mention politics or religion! Unless you think Musk is a God )


----------



## Luftmensch (Dec 20, 2019)

Michi said:


> When I'm not cooking, I'm a competitive pinball player. Pinball machines are expensive, have lots of parts, and break down often. When they do, I have to take a screwdriver, soldering iron, or whatever, and fix them. Up until a few years ago, that was easy. Because everything was discrete components, and I didn't need a hot air soldering station to deal with surface-mount components.
> 
> Now, it's not just surface-mount, it's that a modern pinball machine has the playfield populated with node boards that have their own CPU, run ethernet through the machine back to the main CPU, and also have (surface mounted) LEDs on them. When one of those LEDs fails, I get to replace the entire node board. At $200 a pop. In order to make a light work that is driven by a 5 cent LED.



You never cease to surprise. So cool!




Michi said:


> And I _did_ fix absolutely everything on that Fiat. Usually once every month or two. Because that's how often something in that car stopped working.









Michi said:


> As for the autonomous driving thing, as a software engineer, I am extremely certain that I won't be using that. Not in my life time. I'm not going to be a beta tester for Tesla, informing them that they have a bug by potentially being dead.
> 
> Besides, even _if_ I shell out $8,000 for the future upcoming autonomous driving update, I may never be allowed to use it. Because the whole notion of autonomous driving is a legal minefield, and there is no guarantee that, by the time Tesla decide to deliver the update, my government will even allow me to use it.



Smart. 

It is a really sticky messy for the regulators... Certifying these things is not going to be easy. I just hope it doesnt go down the way Uber did business: force a position into the public sphere, regardless of the law, and pressure consumers and government to give it public license.


----------



## Oui Chef (Dec 20, 2019)

Luftmensch said:


> Oh man... I can't not bite - not because I shouldnt be baited... but because I raised it and you asked: fair game.
> 
> Let me preface this with the following observation. I love that he is pushing green technology into the consumer market. I love that he is helping to commercialise space (and hate it at the same time). He has done VERY well bootstraping his wealth from one company/idea to another. And that takes skill. Either way you cut it he must be business savy and imaginative.
> 
> ...


Thanks for elaborating 
I agree and disagree with bits and pieces
Back to knives


----------



## Luftmensch (Dec 20, 2019)

Oui Chef said:


> Thanks for elaborating
> I agree and disagree with bits and pieces
> Back to knives



Diplomatic of you  
This forum has a lot of level-headed, well mannered folk!


----------



## WildBoar (Dec 20, 2019)

Luftmensch said:


> Diplomatic of you
> This forum has a lot of level-headed, well mannered folk!


And Panda! and ChefDoom! 

Two of my favorite posters, even if some people may not consider them well-mannered (I personally applaud their no-BS manner of posting, and enjoy when they join discussions)


----------



## Luftmensch (Dec 20, 2019)

WildBoar said:


> And Panda! and ChefDoom!
> 
> Two of my favorite posters, even if some people may not consider them well-mannered (I personally applaud their no-BS manner of posting, and enjoy when they join discussions)





Yes; this forum has a lot of level-headed, well mannered folk! And then there is @panda and @Chef Doom 


I think it goes to show "play the ball and not the man". People will tolerate controversial opinions and even a little cheeky provocation so long as it is in good humour. Start being _nasty_ to people and not _critical_ of ideas - then the wheels fall off pretty quickly. 

KKF is actually remarkably level-headed and mostly avoids nastiness... @panda and @Chef Doom _included_


----------



## Michi (Oct 8, 2021)

I took delivery of my Model 3 Performance in late May. Couldn't be happier. This is an all-round excellent car. No ifs or buts. It just works, and the performance is spectacular.

The one thing I'm not keen on is the auto-pilot. It makes me feel like I'm sitting beside a learner driver.

Adaptive cruise control works well, at least on motorways. Using it on city roads (even large and wide ones) gives me the pips. It is way too conservative and has a habit of stomping on the breaks for no good reason.


----------



## LostHighway (Oct 8, 2021)

I'm still driving petrol Hondas and expect to continue to do so at least until 2025. I never liked the complexity of hybrids and the Prius, while having an excellent record for reliability, is decidedly not fun to drive. For true EVs I don't think either the battery technology or the charging network are quite there in much of the USA. Should I want to visit an old friend and former traveling companion in Chadron, Nebraska that is a drive of about 1,000 km one way with few realistic travel options other than driving and currently *very* few charging stations along the route. While that isn't a drive I make often trips of 325 km one way are fairly routine. Add in the significant loss of range in cold weather and many existent EV models just don't have adequate range. The low population density in much or the US complicates the charging network issue. Should I wish to go camping in the Wind River Range it involves a drive across Wyoming which has a population density of six people per square mile.
I do hope the Aptera actually makes it to market this time. We need more antidotes to the infatuation with large SUVs and pickups although selling something like the Aptera to typical US customers would definitely be an uphill push. It will be interesting to see which of the non-PRC startup EV manufactures can actually bring viable products to market. Both Rivian and Lucid have some ex-Tesla talent and seem like they may be able to raise the requisite capital. Hopefully, they can learn from Tesla's slightly inept production issues.


----------



## justaute (Oct 8, 2021)

A bit late to this thread. I've been a Tesla M3 performance owner since late 2018 -- a relative old-hand in the EV world. Notwithstanding its quirks, I love it and believe in the EV evolution. Although charging for long roadtrips require a bit more work, everyday driving/charging is much convenient IMO. Get home, plug it in, done.

The R1T truck from Rivian has been on my radar for some time. Likely my next EV.


----------



## Luftmensch (Oct 8, 2021)

Michi said:


> I took delivery of my Model 3 Performance in late May. Couldn't be happier



Nice one @Michi! I am genuinely happy for you!  Sounds fun!


I was thinking about EVs recently. When the Model S Plaid** was announced, I started to wonder whether companies would enter into a gentlemen's agreement a la the motorcycle speed wars? Or... will regulators put up regulation to stymie availability of these vehicles?

Super/hypercar performance is one thing when those vehicles cost the same amount as a house in a capital city. Reducing the cost to more 'affordable' levels? Eh... I dont know if it is so wise allowing the general public to access that sort of performance.




LostHighway said:


> Both Rivian





justaute said:


> The R1T truck from Rivian



The Rivian does look cool! Nice idea. Off road vehicles are also a category that benefit from freely available torque.





LostHighway said:


> It will be interesting to see which of the non-PRC startup EV manufactures can actually bring viable products to market.



I still think there is a good chance 'conventional' manufacturers can play catch up. While it is true, electric power trains are quite different to internal combustion, big car manufacturers know how to make cars at scale. As nice as all these options are, they all fall into the luxury bracket. The design and manufacturing competency required to sell luxury cars at $>100K is completely different to a no-frills $20K cars. It will be truely transformative once we have the i30 or Corolla of electric cars. (I very much recognise technology needs the early adoption phase).


**Steering 'yoke'? You have to be kidding me...


----------



## Towerguy (Oct 8, 2021)

inferno said:


> Does anyone have an electric car?
> Do you like it?
> whats good and whats bad?
> 
> ...


Electric cars are the wave of the future. Ford, Chevrolet and most of the Asian manufacturers are making huge investments in EV technology and manufacturing. By 2030 most of the cars being sold will be electric. Given the rising cost of gas and the current restrictions on drilling, the all-EV world could come sooner than that.


----------



## LostHighway (Oct 8, 2021)

Does anyone understand why the Japanese manufacturers are so enamored with hydrogen? I sort of get it for their domestic market given their geography and population distribution but on a global level it seems like a considerable stretch.


----------



## ian (Oct 8, 2021)

I got a used 2019 Leaf a couple months ago. Range isn't really an issue since almost all of my driving is 10 miles at a time, and we also have a gas-powered car if we really need it for long trips. But man, the Leaf is fantastic, even though it's like the least expensive electric car possible. Quiet, fun to drive (great torque), so easy to charge at my house.


----------



## Matus (Oct 8, 2021)

LostHighway said:


> Does anyone understand why the Japanese manufacturers are so enamored with hydrogen? I sort of get it for their domestic market given their geography and population distribution but on a global level it seems like a considerable stretch.



Not really, to be honest. Hydrogen is highly untrivial to store safely and its production has efficiency of only around 30%, so it is as of today neither economical, nor ecological. Of course it makes zero sense to run a hydrogen combustion engine and hydrogen-cell based cars still need a battery (though not quite as large as ne EV car does). So in my (technically fairly naive) opinion - unless a more efficient hydrogen production will be developed, (or a production process that does not require electric energy as input), then I don't see the point in investing in industrialization of it as fuel for cars. But there is always a chance that I am missing some obvious and important point.


----------



## Luftmensch (Oct 8, 2021)

LostHighway said:


> Does anyone understand why the Japanese manufacturers are so enamored with hydrogen? I sort of get it for their domestic market given their geography and population distribution but on a global level it seems like a considerable stretch.



The government backed it? Not really sure why... Time will tell whether this is wise or not... It does seem like the technology has been crawling along slowly.



Matus said:


> I am missing some obvious and important point.



One massive advantage hydrogen has is its energy density. It can store more energy per unit volume (and weight). Hydrogen might have an energy density of ~7MJ/kg (depending on the weight of the tank). Lithium ion batteries are in the range 0.36 - 0.875MJ/kg. I suspect it is the lower end for vehicle scale batteries (once you add up all the ruggedisation and smarts/integration). As a crude approximation, it is probably not unfair to say hydrogen systems could achieve 10x the energy density of current batteries. That means larger ranges and lighter vehicles.

It may not matter for zippy urban cars... hydrogen has likely lost the race here (or at least for now). Hydrogen could still be very useful for heavy transport and shipping. If one stretches the imagination, possibly aeronautics. Our best battery technologies are still very heavy and nowhere near useful for practical flight!

There is the other practical aspect of familiar habits. Filling a hydrogen tank would be very similar to filling a gasoline/diesel/LPG tank.... 3 minutes and you're in and out with a pack of gum and a really bad sandwich and regrets...



Australia is investing in green hydrogen. We have supplied dirty hydrogen to Japan in the past for some hydrogen vehicle projects. We are looking to go green. Academics and research institutions think Australia could position itself as a green hydrogen superpower. Our national research agency CSIRO, developed an method for extracting hydrogen from ammonia - which could help pave the way for safe storage and transportation. All this said, Australia's interest is more on the industrial side. Of course; hydrogen could play a role in transport... but it can also play a role in heavy industry like running turbines (power), smelting metals and fertilisers.

Australia has tremendous form in stuffing up opportunity! I am hoping the EU and US continue to put pressure on us to commit to green targets. With our recent appalling French submarine diplomacy, I don't think europe is going to be generous with our 20th century approach to carbon emissions - and bloody right!


----------



## stringer (Oct 8, 2021)

LostHighway said:


> Does anyone understand why the Japanese manufacturers are so enamored with hydrogen? I sort of get it for their domestic market given their geography and population distribution but on a global level it seems like a considerable stretch.



I have been following this for a number of years. Japan bet heavily on nuclear power because they don't have much in the way of domestic energy production. Fukushima messed that up big time. Since then Japan has been trying to find a way to salvage the nuclear energy project with something safer than conventional meltdown prone reactors. They believe they can use helium for a fuel source and produce clean (i.e. non fossil fuel derived) hydrogen as a byproduct. And for the Japanese, the same factors that limit their domestic energy production (small archipelago) make building something like a hydrogen distribution network trivial. So the government is heavily subsidizing it as a plank in their clean energy platform. The new generation reactors are still experimental but look promising. This would allow them to use nuclear generated electricity for their grid and have clean hydrogen for transportation and fuel.

One new wrinkle in the energy/climate debate in regards to hydrogen is new research on arctic ice that shows atmospheric hydrogen concentrations have skyrocketed over the last 100 years in tandem with carbon dioxide, methane, sulfur dioxide, and other fossil fuel related pollutants. We aren't really sure where it's all coming from our what it will mean for climate change. A lot of it is probably being released in the mining and burning of natural gas. And leaking out of natural gas pipelines. Hydrogen is not directly implicated as a greenhouse gas, but it's affects haven't been studied that much because scientists believed until very recently that free hydrogen wouldn't just stick around in the atmosphere very long. It turns out they were wrong. It does stick around and it possibly could influence a number of processes related to climate change. For instance, by intensifying the effect of methane as a greenhouse gas. Anyways, this complicates the picture for the rest of the world's ambitions for a hydrogen economy, I suspect Japan will keep dumping tons of money on it for the next several decades.


----------



## Knivperson (Oct 8, 2021)

rob said:


> If your gonna set the bar high, ask for (demand). Porsche Taycan.
> 
> 750 HP. 1050NM Tourque 0-100 in 2.6.
> 
> Nothing wimpy about those figures.


Tesla Plaid eats Porsches for breakfast.


----------



## Knivperson (Oct 8, 2021)

Only one car is faster than a Tesla Plaid right now - including all combustions cars - and it's the Rimac Nevera.


----------



## JDA_NC (Oct 8, 2021)

Towerguy said:


> Electric cars are the wave of the future. Ford, Chevrolet and most of the Asian manufacturers are making huge investments in EV technology and manufacturing. By 2030 most of the cars being sold will be electric. Given the rising cost of gas and the current restrictions on drilling, the all-EV world could come sooner than that.



I do have to say, as an outsider to the industry and someone with limited knowledge about these things, it is a little sad to witness how this shift has occurred.

"Who Killed the Electric Car?" was released in 2006, detailing the development, commercialization, and death of electric vehicles in the mid-90s. I mention this only as a testament to the fact that the technology for this has existed for quite some time - only it wasn't in the (financial) interests of these corporations to continue to develop and promote.

I think EV and hybrid vehicles are the way of the future, and so I am appreciative of all progress on that front. But I can't help but feel that this is only being done because Elon Musk & Co. have done such a good job of framing (their) electric vehicles as "status symbols." It seems as if big corporations can/will only be motivated to combat climate warming and other environmental issues if they can see a large profit in it. This isn't shocking by any means, but it is certainly depressing as hell and it paints a bleak picture of us actually accomplishing anything in the long term.


----------



## Michi (Oct 8, 2021)

Luftmensch said:


> I dont know if it is so wise allowing the general public to access that sort of performance.


I tend to agree. In any "normal" car, you can floor it and pretty much have nothing bad happen. With the amount of power and torque of the Model 3, doing that is definitely dangerous and may well land you off the road somewhere. There is also the question whether that level of performance is necessary. Sure, it's a lot of fun. But then, there are lots of teenagers who died just because they were having fun, and that was in cars that were nowhere near as fast…

There is a safety bonus to the brutal acceleration: overtaking is done and dusted in the blink of eye, no questions asked. But I'm not sure that this outweighs the risks.

Long term, I expect that the acceleration of cars will be limited by law or industry agreement. It's just a matter of waiting long enough for a sufficient number of people to have died, as happened with motorcycles.


----------



## M1k3 (Oct 8, 2021)

Luftmensch said:


> Reducing the cost to more 'affordable' levels? Eh... I dont know if it is so wise allowing the general public to access that sort of performance.


----------



## tcmx3 (Oct 8, 2021)

I wouldnt be caught dead driving a Tesla. POS cars and the owner of the company is the biggest d-bag Ive ever seen in 3 decades of life on this planet.

that said, the Porsche Taycan non-turbo (which is... I mean ok Porsche you do you I guess) is a good looking vehicle and you get some actual build quality with it so that's an interesting one. if Audi made an electric A6 AND I lived somewhere I could easily charge it, I would go for it. I think they have an SUV which is a good start, now just make a car.

Ive been into cars since I was a kid; I knew pretty much every make and model available in the US when I was in elementary school and stretched a bit to get my first M car because I had loved M3s forever. For me, the idea that the thing that makes a car wonderful is exploding dinosaur intestines is a bit silly. I dont see how having the motors be electric will reduce my enjoyment. 

Oh and also just because a Model 3 can out accelerate a 911 on a drag strip doesnt mean much. The 911 Turbo is a better engineered car than any Tesla in every way from the gaps of the panels to the big stuff like being not ugly.


----------



## Nemo (Oct 8, 2021)

Matus said:


> Not really, to be honest. Hydrogen is highly untrivial to store safely and its production has efficiency of only around 30%, so it is as of today neither economical, nor ecological. Of course it makes zero sense to run a hydrogen combustion engine and hydrogen-cell based cars still need a battery (though not quite as large as ne EV car does). So in my (technically fairly naive) opinion - unless a more efficient hydrogen production will be developed, (or a production process that does not require electric energy as input), then I don't see the point in investing in industrialization of it as fuel for cars. But there is always a chance that I am missing some obvious and important point.



Agreed that hydrogen ICE is impractical. I blame physics and it's little brother (chemistry).

If you produce hydrogen with renewable energy, it makes the production efficiency less of an issue. And it is potentially an easier way of storing large amounts of energy than, say, building large chemical battery systems (which have their own inefficiencies, especially in transmission to where the power is needed). Or potential energy batteries (such as pumped hydro). CSIRO have developed a technology to store hydrogen as ammonia then extract it when required, so it's also potentially transportable in bulk. Say, from the sun-scorched deserts of central Australia to Japan.

The size of the battery in a fuel cell car is much smaller and lighter, with implications for acceleration, range and overall design of the car.


Luftmensch said:


> One massive advantage hydrogen has is its energy density. It can store more energy per unit volume (and weight). Lithium ion batteries are in the range 0.36 - 0.875MJ/kg. I suspect it is the lower end for vehicle scale batteries (once you add up all the ruggedisation and smarts/integration). As a crude approximation, it is probably not unfair to say hydrogen systems could achieve 10x the energy density of current batteries. That means larger ranges and lighter vehicles.
> 
> There is the other practical aspect of familiar habits. Filling a hydrogen tank would be very similar to filling a gasoline/diesel/LPG tank.... 3 minutes and you're in and out with a pack of gum and a really bad sandwich and regrets...



I think that this has hit the nail on the head. Energy density and speed of reuelling are the main benefits of hydrogen over chemical batteries. And I guess that you don't need to periodically recycle the batteries (but probably do need to refresh the fuel cell).

Range anxiety is a major factor here in regional Australia, as is the ability to fully refuel within a couple of minutes. I know people who drive a couple of hundred Km per day just to get to work and perhaps the shops. Even with my more modest 50-100 km per day driving, range anxiety prevents me from even considering battery power at the moment because when I'm busy, it could be 200km per day, without much time to recharge for days on end.

It's also very common to drive 6 or more hours to holiday or visit family. Multi-day road trips are not that uncommon. High current recharging stations would probably help here but the network of them is still pretty primative in regional Australia. Even so, you are adding time to your trip. Hydrogen would definitely help with those problems. Granted, it would also require a roll-out of hydrogen filling stations.

Hydrogen power probably doesn't have much benefit over battery powered passenger cars in densely populated areas with good public transport infrastructure. However in more remote areas there are significant benefits to the energy density and rapid refuelling that hydrogen offers.

One of Australia's largest iron mining companies has committed to developing and rolling out (green) hydrogen technology to its road and rail transport fleet. Also to developing green steel smelting technology with green hydrogen. I'm watching this with interest.


----------



## Michi (Oct 8, 2021)

tcmx3 said:


> I wouldnt be caught dead driving a Tesla. POS cars and the owner of the company is the biggest d-bag Ive ever seen in 3 decades of life on this planet.


Not that you'd be opinionated in any way… 



> Oh and also just because a Model 3 can out accelerate a 911 on a drag strip doesnt mean much.


Indeed. But why compare apples and oranges? The 911 is a sports car, the Model 3 is a family sedan. Of course the 911 will eat a Model 3 on a race track. That's no different from American muscle cars that go like crazy and steer like a cow. Nothing to see here.



> The 911 Turbo is a better engineered car than any Tesla in every way from the gaps of the panels to the big stuff like being not ugly.


Right now, all the panel gaps are perfectly even on my car, and I have not noticed any other issues with build quality or finish (and I checked thoroughly). As to long-term build quality, I'll know only once I've owned the car for 5+ years.

As to the looks, that's very much a personal thing. I don't think the Tesla is the best-looking sedan out there, but it also is far from being the ugliest, IMO.


----------



## tcmx3 (Oct 8, 2021)

Michi said:


> Not that you'd be opinionated in any way…
> 
> 
> Indeed. But why compare apples and oranges? The 911 is a sports car, the Model 3 is a family sedan. Of course the 911 will eat a Model 3 on a race track. That's no different from American muscle cars that go like crazy and steer like a cow. Nothing to see here.
> ...



it's not just that a 911 turbo will blast a model 3 on a race track. just day to day, one is a fast car made by the company with the best build quality in the industry and one of the highest real world reliabilities, and the other one is bolted together by undergrad CS majors. if it were Porsche vs BMW/VAG/Volvo then ok it's horses for courses, but Tesla isnt in that strata.

Also my dislike for Elon Musk is probably not great enough considering it's Elon Musk.

If you like the way your car looks ok cant argue with that. That's personal aesthetic. I work in tech in Austin and I see tons of both and I dont think it's remotely close but then I also have never understood the supposed beauty of wedge shaped supercars.


----------



## Michi (Oct 8, 2021)

tcmx3 said:


> it's not just that a 911 turbo will blast a model 3 on a race track. just day to day, one is a fast car made by the company with the best build quality in the industry and one of the highest real world reliabilities, and the other one is bolted together by undergrad CS majors. if it were Porsche vs BMW/VAG/Volvo then ok it's horses for courses, but Tesla isnt in that strata.


The Taycan is the better car, no doubt (ignoring range, at least). It also costs pretty much exactly twice as much as a Model 3 Performance. One would expect that Taycan owners get something for all those extra dollars.

As to the Tesla being bolted together by undergrad CS majors, I don't get the hyperbole. Nothing could be further from the truth. There are reasons why Tesla is outselling any other EV manufacturer by a wide margin. Among them are excellence in design and engineering. That excellence doesn't come from CS majors.


----------



## tcmx3 (Oct 8, 2021)

Michi said:


> The Taycan is the better car, no doubt (ignoring range, at least). It also costs pretty much exactly twice as much as a Model 3 Performance. One would expect that Taycan owners get something for all those extra dollars.
> 
> As to the Tesla being bolted together by undergrad CS majors, I don't get the hyperbole. Nothing could be further from the truth. There are reasons why Tesla is outselling any other EV manufacturer by a wide margin. Among them are excellence in design and engineering. That excellence doesn't come from CS majors.



I'm sure it's a matter of perspective. As it happens, I know a fair bit about how the sausage is made at Tesla on the software engineering side, and I would never drive one based on what I know. That's just my choice.

I cant make the choice for other folk and IME trying to convince anyone that's bought into the Tesla _thing_ is a fool's errand so it is my only hope that you continue to enjoy your vehicle.


----------



## Michi (Oct 8, 2021)

tcmx3 said:


> I'm sure it's a matter of perspective. As it happens, I know a fair bit about how the sausage is made at Tesla on the software engineering side, and I would never drive one based on what I know. That's just my choice.


I'm a software engineer, and I've been writing code for a living for over forty years. That includes critical systems, such as Telecoms (every time you make a phone call, there is a good chance that some of my code makes that possible), the mission control system for the space shuttle, and the National Ignition Facility at Lawrence Livermore. I do know something about how the sausage is made at Tesla and, indeed, many other places. I would never dream of allowing my Tesla to drive me around on its self-driving package (which I didn't buy).


tcmx3 said:


> I cant make the choice for other folk and IME trying to convince anyone that's bought into the Tesla _thing_ is a fool's errand so it is my only hope that you continue to enjoy your vehicle.


No Tesla _thing_ here. I bought the car because I felt guilty driving around in my previous 3.2 l V6, which was basically burning twice as much petrol as a normal car. I've been looking at EVs for close to ten years and, each time I looked, the cost-benefit analysis didn't stack up. Until now, when the range reached plenty enough for my needs, the car's price dropped to a level where I was willing to pay it, and the technology was mature enough for me to no longer be part of the lunatic fringe.

I expect that I'll continue to enjoy the Model 3. Or not. Time will tell.


----------



## tcmx3 (Oct 8, 2021)

Michi said:


> I'm a software engineer, and I've been writing code for a living for over forty years. That includes critical systems, such as Telecoms (every time you make a phone call, there is a good chance that some of my code makes that possible), the mission control system for the space shuttle, and the National Ignition Facility at Lawrence Livermore. I do know something about how the sausage is made at Tesla and, indeed, many other places. I would never dream of allowing my Tesla to drive me around on its self-driving package (which I didn't buy).



well, I cant argue with your experience. I dont have as much, though I do have a lot these days. I was referring to things I know about Tesla specifically, mostly from talking to former employees, not speculation on the general nature of software engineering. maybe you've seen or heard about some of their struggles on thate side and they don't bother you. I would understand, even if I dont agree.

maybe Im missing something but Im not sure how your SWE experience is informing your choice here, I do trust you can code like a madman just Tesla is Tesla and the places you worked are the places you worked. what's the piece Im missing here?


----------



## Michi (Oct 8, 2021)

tcmx3 said:


> maybe Im missing something but Im not sure how your SWE experience is informing your choice here, I do trust you can code like a madman just Tesla is Tesla and the places you worked are the places you worked. what's the piece Im missing here?


I don't trust my Tesla to drive me around. I do trust my Tesla to accelerate or brake when I step on the appropriate pedal. Almost all cars are drive by wire these days, and those systems are not developed by Tesla, but typically by companies that specialise in such real-time systems. (Bosch is a big one, for example.) I don't know where Tesla gets some of its sub-systems from, but I very much doubt that they develop it all in-house. The brakes are from Brembo, the headlights are from Hella, the navigation is from Google, etc.

So, my Tesla is about as safe or unsafe as pretty much any other recent car when it comes to normal driving. Where Tesla's software comes in is mainly for the self-driving capabilities. And, by and large, I do not use those, except for adaptive cruise control on a highway.


----------



## inferno (Oct 8, 2021)

inferno said:


> i have at least been on time 2 times since 2017! and thats quite good i think. for me. one time i even came 6.30.



would like to update this a bit. i've now shown up at 7.00 3 whole times (and it was a ****ing waste of time this time again, we had some **** meeting that i dont usually go to. yeah monday meeting. **** that ****.). and just to clarify: the time i showed up at 6.30 i did it mostly to **** with the other people on the floor. like a shithawk.


----------



## Barashka (Oct 9, 2021)

Teslas are the new muscle cars of USA .. replacing Ford Mustang. 
The same pros/cons apply .. yes you get speed and fun in a straight line, but a 2x more expensive and slower BMW is still a better _car_. 
With euro cars your trim won't fall off and the paint will be perfect every time, better in the corners .. but lacks the childish fun.



tcmx3 said:


> I wouldnt be caught dead driving a Tesla. POS cars


You can't really call tesla a POS car .. certainly POS quality control, and some very budget solutions sometimes, but it's the most popular EV for good reasons. Maybe those reasons aren't enough for you .. I'd never be caught dead driving a mustang for similar reasons, but I get it when I see the smile on a mustang driver's face.



tcmx3 said:


> and the owner of the company is the biggest d-bag Ive ever seen


Ford was d-bag too. For better or worse, most people don't base their car decisions on inventors' character.



tcmx3 said:


> bolted together by undergrad CS majors.


CS majors/masters are writing all the software, working stupid overtime. As far as I understand the QC issues are coming from brand new construction lines where Tesla didn't really look at how any other car factories work, so they are a decade or two behind on that one.



tcmx3 said:


> 911 turbo will blast a model 3 on a race track


The fact that you're comparing a _911_ sports car to a 4 door family semi-budget sedan should tell you _something_ 

Personally, I'm supremely disappointed in Toyota CEO publicly dissing EVs in general .. I was really looking forward to Toyota EVs, alas .. Now Tesla is top of the list for the next car, unless Volvo gets cheaper for some reason.


----------



## Luftmensch (Oct 9, 2021)

Barashka said:


> As far as I understand the QC issues are coming from brand new construction lines where Tesla didn't really look at how any other car factories work, so they are a decade or two behind on that one.



That is my gut feel. It would not surprise me one bit if established car makers out compete Tesla in the mass market. In that possible reality, Tesla will be relegated to occupying a luxury niche. Maybe Telsa will figure it out and find a way to make a commercially competitive car for the everyday joe... I remain skeptical. It seems to me they have been more cautious about talking about an "affordable" Tesla than they were a few years ago.





Barashka said:


> Personally, I'm supremely disappointed in Toyota CEO publicly dissing EVs in general .. I was really looking forward to Toyota EVs, alas .. Now Tesla is top of the list for the next car, unless Volvo gets cheaper for some reason.



Oh really!? That greatly disappoints me. I am a Toyota fan. The outback runs on them 

I am sure most europeans cars manufacturers will have an EV option in the near future. Hyundai seem to be fighting for Toyotas crown: fairly priced and reliable no frills cars. I wouldnt be surprised if some good options come out of South Korea.


----------



## tcmx3 (Oct 9, 2021)

Barashka said:


> Ford was d-bag too. For better or worse, most people don't base their car decisions on inventors' character.
> 
> The fact that you're comparing a _911_ sports car to a 4 door family semi-budget sedan should tell you _something_



if Henry Ford I were running Ford I would never ever consider buying one.

also _hello_ there is a video of a Tesla drag racing a 911 in the thread? hello?

also I have explicitly said my take on Tesla's SWE front is due to interactions with Tesla employees but ok everyone tell me how great Tesla SWE is because you like Tesla. Im sure that should outweigh my personal interactions with people who actually work(ed) there.


----------



## tcmx3 (Oct 9, 2021)

should also note that Tesla is plagued with "leadership issues" ranging from:

losing a high profile racial discrimination lawsuit and then responding by saying "we dont see what the big deal is he's not a real Tesla employee he's a contractor"








Tesla must pay $137 million to a Black employee who sued for racial discrimination


Owen Diaz, an elevator operator from 2015 to 2016, said in his lawsuit that he and others were called the N-word by Tesla employees and that he was told to "go back to Africa."




www.npr.org





CEO committing securities violations on social media:





SEC.gov | Elon Musk Charged With Securities Fraud for Misleading Tweets







www.sec.gov





and Elon getting hilariously owned by Lana Wachowski on twitter re the concept that she created that Elon doesnt seem to possess the capacity to understand.

these behaviors are, I would guess, indicators as to why Peter Thiel excised him from the Paypal mafia.


----------



## tcmx3 (Oct 9, 2021)

anyway does anyone have experience with Volvo's electric SUVs? if they made a car version, I might be interested in that. I cross shopped their sedans the last time I was looking for a vehicle. at the time I thought they were too boring but with Austin roads boring might be a nice change of pace.

unfortunately the plug in hybrids appear to only have about 20 miles of range and I no longer work at a place with charging stations in the garage =/


----------



## spaceconvoy (Oct 10, 2021)

tcmx3 said:


> and Elon getting hilariously owned by Lana Wachowski on twitter re the concept that she created that Elon doesnt seem to possess the capacity to understand.


Are you referring to Lilly Wachowski replying "f*** both of you" to an exchange between Musk and Ivanka Trump? I can't find anything similar on google. Do you seriously consider this 'getting hilariously owned'?

Having worked in the tech industry I have a healthy visceral hate for Elon and all the d-bag tech bros who defend him. But that's embarrassingly weak.







Elon needs no outside help, he's constantly self-owning with every cringy thing he does. To me he sounds exactly like an insecure nerd badly feigning a cartoonish version of masculine bravado, and it's a wonder how he has any following at all.


----------



## Michi (Oct 10, 2021)

tcmx3 said:


> _hello_ there is a video of a Tesla drag racing a 911 in the thread? hello?


----------



## Barmoley (Oct 10, 2021)

What modern American muscle cars do you guys drive that don't handle well. Mustang, Corvette, Cadillac ctsv or atsv. You might still prefer German cars I do too, or specifically how German cars are tuned, but I wouldn't say that modern American cars don't handle well.


----------



## Bart.s (Oct 10, 2021)

My sister used to have a little electric car, a Seat Mi. In summer, had a range of about 250 km. But in winter, when temperatures dropped below zero, it wouldn't charge fully anymore and it had a range of about 160 km. Also, when the range went below 50 km things like the heater would shut off. Nice, middle of winter. I remember one month, she paid about €220 for charging that month. Don't remember anymore how many km's she drove, but my petrol car was cheaper per km . Electric cars still have a long way to go.


----------



## ian (Oct 10, 2021)

Bart.s said:


> Electric cars still have a long way to go.



I mean, sure, there are still improvements to be made, but I’m not sure the failings of this particular car your sister had a while ago really comment on the current state of the electric car industry as a whole. Sorry it didn’t work out for her. I’m super happy with mine.


----------



## LostHighway (Oct 10, 2021)

This has been a really great thread. I'm particularly thankful to @Nemo, @stringer, and @Luftmensch for the education with regard to hydrogen.
While I am grateful to Tesla for lighting a fire under the major car companies to get serious about EVs I think Tesla's attempts to reinvent the wheel when it comes to automotive mass production is a non-trivial issue. The experience and ability of Ford, Hyundai/Kia, and VW/Porsche/Audi to manufacture cars in quantity could quickly eat into Tesla's lead. The Honda-GM collaboration may yield interesting results as well.
Good luck to the EV startups based in the West (Lucid, Rivian, Aptera, Canoo, Bollinger,...) but I think they face an uphill push. Lucid and Rivian are the only two that I'm convinced have the resources to at least make a serious run at it. The PRC based startups are of zero interest to me but the size of their domestic market could leapfrog them into international viability. Volvo/Polestar is in a funny niche being western built but PRC owned (Geely). It sounds like the Tesla Model 2 is going to be PRC built, not surprising but somewhat disappointing. Personally, I'm waiting for a small to medium sized wagon or hatchback (*not *a f**king SUV), built in North America, with at least a 500mi/800km range for ≤$35k USD. More comprehensive geographic distribution of charging stations would help too.


----------



## Barashka (Oct 10, 2021)

tcmx3 said:


> great Tesla SWE is


I literally just said they are stupid overworked .. not a word about greatness or their personalities. Though result are quite impressive .. their self driving might not be there yet, but certainly amazing progress. Stay objective here, they don't get to be top of industry by being "not great".



tcmx3 said:


> you like Tesla


I'm ok with it. While I'm one of the crazies that doesn't shop at Walmart, doesn't buy Nestle products and a few other brands .. Tesla as a company is still on the line, don't like plenty things about the owner (top two: stupid overtime his companies run in, and his handling of lockdowns, the list goes on and does include his army of Twitter warriors) but have very healthy respect for shocking the auto industry into electric age. That's an achievement a tree hugger in me can't ignore.

Yes I know there are videos of model 3 can porches and GTRs vs lambo etc .. my point is that the existence of these compares are a testament to achievements of the "lesser" of the two cars. Being compared to but loosing to porches is not a bad thing.

I'd very much like a Porsche .. but alas, Volvo is closer to my budgets, and I even like the color. However, I'm pretty sure it'll take another 5 years for the other car makers to even compete with model 2 price point.

Back on topic ... Hyundai is an interesting case. They've become quite a brand, coming from "get it because you have no other choice" to a reasonable alternative to even Honda ... Which is impressive. That said .. I'm not sure is buy one yet.

Lucid is also very interesting. I didn't think they'd last, but apparently they are for reals and I'm very much looking forward to actual competition with Tesla. Interest to see how they handle QC.

Rivian I'm not so hot about yet, maybe I'd they are still around in 5 years. They may .. cybertruck is a meme, and rivian truck actually looks usable. To be fair .. memes are very popular too.

I brought up Volvo because it's one of the few semi budget electric cars that are practically "worth it" given a Tesla exists, like Volt is too close to Tesla price to be competitive, but Volvo offers all the Volvo thing and lesser range is a tradeoff, not a deal breaker.

As for range .. I really think 200k miles is enough for 99% of people .. but because of range anxiety we ask for 350k. Going all the way to 500k is a waste of batteries and weight/energy to carry it all. The 1% I'd people who actually drive more then 200k a day, somehow .. really shouldn't have to make me drive a much heavier car.

Now, hydrogen? I'm 100% convinced it's too late for cars, batteries are just too good. Maybe busses that need extreme range? But more likely heavy industry and cruise ships and anything else that can't charge overnight and is big enough to house a hydrogen cell or tank.


----------



## Bart.s (Oct 10, 2021)

ian said:


> I mean, sure, there are still improvements to be made, but I’m not sure the failings of this particular car your sister had a while ago really comment on the current state of the electric car industry as a whole. Sorry it didn’t work out for her. I’m super happy with mine.



Glad you are happy with yours. I do think electric cars are the future, but just not there yet at the moment. The problems my sister had with her car aren't problems only to that particular car. There are loads of reports of electric cars not performing well or not charging fully in freezing temperatures. Sure, if you have a heated garage to charge, you wouldn't have that problem. But most people don't. Renault and NIO had plans for battery swap stations, which, IMO, would be a game changer. But for me, electric cars are not yet practical enough to make the change.


----------



## LostHighway (Oct 10, 2021)

Bart.s said:


> Glad you are happy with yours. I do think electric cars are the future, but just not there yet at the moment. The problems my sister had with her car aren't problems only to that particular car. There are loads of reports of electric cars not performing well or not charging fully in freezing temperatures. Sure, if you have a heated garage to charge, you wouldn't have that problem. But most people don't. Renault and NIO had plans for battery swap stations, which, IMO, would be a game changer. But for me, electric cars are not yet practical enough to make the change.



In the experience of my friends and acquaintances the Nissan Leaf, Chevrolet Volt, Honda Insight, and Toyota Prius all saw significant drops in battery range both in the Upper Midwest and Northern New England winters. Of course, those North American winters are generally colder than those of the Netherlands. 
Right now there are large swaths of the Central US (the Dakotas, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma) that have very little charging infrastructure especially once you get away from the Interstate Highway system and the two or three largest cities in each state. Short hop flights to non major airports and renting a vehicle on arrival is both expensive and an environmental train wreck. For those of us who like road trips I respectfully but strenuously disagree with @Barashka on how much EV range is enough. I regard 400km as the absolute minimum acceptable range unless you're keeping a gas vehicle as well as the EV or never venture out of a major metro area.


----------



## tcmx3 (Oct 10, 2021)

LostHighway said:


> In the experience of my friends and acquaintances the Nissan Leaf, Chevrolet Volt, Honda Insight, and Toyota Prius all saw significant drops in battery range both in the Upper Midwest and Northern New England winters. Of course, those North American winters are generally colder than those of the Netherlands.
> Right now there are large swaths of the Central US (the Dakotas, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma) that have very little charging infrastructure especially once you get away from the Interstate Highway system and the two or three largest cities in each state. Short hop flights to non major airports and renting a vehicle on arrival is both expensive and an environmental train wreck. For those of us who like road trips I respectfully but strenuously disagree with @Barashka on how much EV range is enough. I regard 400km as the absolute minimum acceptable range unless you're keeping a gas vehicle as well as the EV or never venture out of a major metro area.



I do agree, but this for me raises a bit of a tangential point.

IMO there's a big problem in America of the "I need it" mentality, ESPECIALLY wrt vehicles, where the thing you 'need' is totally disproportionate to what you actually need. I would argue this is evidenced every time you go on the road in this country and a MINIMUM of 40% of all the vehicles are SUVs/Trucks, the majority of which we know empirically have a single passenger most of the time. Im not saying this re range, btw, but rather making the point that most people probably should be getting into an EV for work commuting in the next 5 to 10 years. I would personally like to see European style congestion charges in the city areas, ones that heavily favor EVs with exceptions for older vehicles + some sort of buyback like we had a few years ago. That way, if people really think they "need" an ICE vehicle by all means you do you, just get ready to pony up.

I for one see a bit of a... how to put this, moment of crisis coming up? The car companies arent there yet and neither are the cities but these changes simply have to be made. There is no alternative. You cannot shrug in the face of an existential crisis and say "but it seems hard to solve".


----------



## LostHighway (Oct 10, 2021)

tcmx3 said:


> I do agree, but this for me raises a bit of a tangential point.
> 
> IMO there's a big problem in America of the "I need it" mentality, ESPECIALLY wrt vehicles, where the thing you 'need' is totally disproportionate to what you actually need. I would argue this is evidenced every time you go on the road in this country and a MINIMUM of 40% of all the vehicles are SUVs/Trucks, the majority of which we know empirically have a single passenger most of the time. Im not saying this re range, btw, but rather making the point that most people probably should be getting into an EV for work commuting in the next 5 to 10 years. I would personally like to see European style congestion charges in the city areas, ones that heavily favor EVs with exceptions for older vehicles + some sort of buyback like we had a few years ago. That way, if people really think they "need" an ICE vehicle by all means you do you, just get ready to pony up.
> 
> I for one see a bit of a... how to put this, moment of crisis coming up? The car companies arent there yet and neither are the cities but these changes simply have to be made. There is no alternative. You cannot shrug in the face of an existential crisis and say "but it seems hard to solve".



I completely agree regarding both the penchant for largely unnecessary SUVs and pickups and with regard to congestion charges. I would prefer to see tiered congestion charge systems that encourage public mass transit as a first priority, place private EVs and hybrids (perhaps with a minimum battery performance qualifier) on the next tier, compact and subcompact gas vehicles below that, and SUVs, pickups, panel vans, and low gas mileage luxury or performance cars on a tier with the highest charges, perhaps with a partial exception where it can be shown that there is no viable alternative to a private truck.


----------



## Barashka (Oct 10, 2021)

Agreed on public transit .. I lived in Toronto for a time and people used to complain about transit, but it's so much better then anything in US right now. ... Sadly, given how entire nation is a car nation with SUVs and excess in general I think Tesla will get full self driving before we get good enough public transit. Ala my future car will drop me off and go park itself at home before I get a usable subway.

As for range ... I do drive to Canada, or used to, every so often, about 600k miles, but path is full of superchargers right now .. I cant think of places without any ... But I understand that people do go to those places and then maybe electric car isn't quite for you. Before the supercharger network I really thought plugin hybrid is the way ... But progress prove me wrong. I suspect that car makers will offer extra range models for those people (and marketing), but most sold models will be mid to lower range (partially due to cost, but also due to need)


----------



## LostHighway (Oct 10, 2021)

Barashka said:


> Agreed on public transit .. I lived in Toronto for a time and people used to complain about transit, but it's so much better then anything in US right now. ... Sadly, given how entire nation is a car nation with SUVs and excess in general I think Tesla will get full self driving before we get good enough public transit. Ala my future car will drop me off and go park itself at home before I get a usable subway.
> 
> As for range ... I do drive to Canada, or used to, every so often, about 600k miles, but path is full of superchargers right now .. I cant think of places without any ... But I understand that people do go to those places and then maybe electric car isn't quite for you. Before the supercharger network I really thought plugin hybrid is the way ... But progress prove me wrong. I suspect that car makers will offer extra range models for those people (and marketing), but most sold models will be mid to lower range (partially due to cost, but also due to need)



I was recently shocked to see Chicago ranked well below Minneapolis for mass transit. I lived in Chicago years ago and the system seemed fairly functional to me although I was mostly taking the Northside L Red Line between Evanston/Far North Chicago and the loop. The system in Minneapolis-St Paul simply not very good. I think only Boston, DC, SF, and maybe Seattle and NYC can claim even remotely adequate mass transit systems among US cities. IME most US systems are either inconvenient, unsafe/unreliable or some combination of those problems.

I'm not holding my breath on full self driving anytime soon, especially in winter.


----------



## tcmx3 (Oct 10, 2021)

LostHighway said:


> I was recently shocked to see Chicago ranked well below Minneapolis for mass transit. I lived in Chicago years ago and the system seemed fairly functional to me although I was mostly taking the Northside L Red Line between Evanston/Far North Chicago and the loop. The system in Minneapolis-St Paul simply not very good. I think only Boston, DC, SF, and maybe Seattle and NYC can claim even remotely adequate mass transit systems among US cities. IME most US systems are either inconvenient, unsafe/unreliable or some combination of those problems.
> 
> I'm not holding my breath on full self driving anytime soon, especially in winter.



full self driving is a very, very long away. the industry needs something at LEAST as big a change as Attention is All You Need was for language.

if you wanted to make cars that dont need to be steered today or probably in the next decade, you would need to put down set paths and specific places for them to stop to avoid them from killing their occupants 0.001% of the time (which would add up very quickly). but in order to avoid having hundreds of self driving cars zipping around and having to deal with an irobot style mess of speeding objects, it'd probably make more sense to make them bigger, so that you have less individual vehicles to keep track of. perhaps though in that case it would make sense for them to just stop at all the stops, where people could get on and off? and maybe since people would want to use them, there needs to be some kind of easy way to pay without the need for buggy phone apps or websites. perhaps something like a pass you could pay for monthly?

anyway Im not really joking. the Japanese have built an absolute masterpiece of a rail system in a country made up mostly of mountains and tectonic plates so Im pretty sure we could manage if we actually tried:


----------



## Barashka (Oct 10, 2021)

Yes Japan rail system is amazing. To be fair, Europe is pretty well connected by rail too.

Chicago transit is pretty great! Some of the best in US that I've seen, quite happy with it.

I understand that full self driving is far away, I was just semi joking that good public transit in US is about as far away.

I think Japan, and to extend Europe has a bit of an advantage of being densely populated. Canada in the other hand .. 4 cities across half a continent, it's tough to make rail really "worth while". Similar to US when between cities .. and US having poor public transit in cities I blame right in Ford initially and on lack of infrastructure spending in recent 20 years.


----------



## LostHighway (Oct 10, 2021)

Barashka said:


> Yes Japan rail system is amazing. To be fair, Europe is pretty well connected by rail too.
> 
> Chicago transit is pretty great! Some of the best in US that I've seen, quite happy with it.
> 
> ...



The destruction of US streetcar systems was all kinds of stupid but the blame is quite diverse. The systems weren't adequately funded and many of them were already in financial trouble before the the release of the Ford Model A. GM, Firestone Tire, Hertz (they were a bus company before car and truck rental), and Standard Oil did conspire to take advantage of an already weak to failing system and convert cities to buses. It was a combination of mismanagement, shortsightedness, the widespread adoption of ICE cars and buses, the Depression, and some real malfeasance/corruption that killed the US streetcar systems. As you note, low population densities relative to Europe or Japan both within cities and nationally is a major problem for both urban mass transits and intercity passenger rail in the USA and Canada.

The Minneapolis-St Paul street car system was one of the later hold outs, it didn't fully cease operation until 1954. At it's height the system ran from Stillwater and White Bear Lake in the east to Excelsior and Lake Minnetonka in the west a distance of 45 to 50 road miles. You could travel that distance for a five cent fare (still well under $1.00 corrected for inflation). There was also a connected system of ferries on Lake Minnetonka up until the mid-1920s. 

A U of MN engineering professor, J. Edward Anderson, lobbied for a Personal Mass Transit (small vehicles that could go directly to the requested stop) subway system in the 1970s but it never gained traction due to the immense cost and the technological limitations of the time although Minneapolis did, briefly, consider a more conventional subway system. Light rail finally begin to arrive in 2004 but the system is limited and not without problems. We still mostly rely on buses.


----------



## Barmoley (Oct 10, 2021)

Power delivery of EVs is definitely very impressive. We just need a breakthrough in battery technology some sort of a battery capacitor hybrid. Fast charging with adequate range. If recharging was as fast as ice cars and stations were available range would be less of an issue for many and more people would be convinced to at least have a commuter ev. Right now people with houses can charge over night and some parking structures and office buildings have charging stations, but people living in apartments have a more difficult time. If charging was fast and plentiful though, range anxiety would be much lower. Self driving is far off and is not really needed anytime soon even though it would be great if it was reliable.


----------



## ian (Oct 10, 2021)

Bart.s said:


> Glad you are happy with yours. I do think electric cars are the future, but just not there yet at the moment. The problems my sister had with her car aren't problems only to that particular car. There are loads of reports of electric cars not performing well or not charging fully in freezing temperatures. Sure, if you have a heated garage to charge, you wouldn't have that problem. But most people don't. Renault and NIO had plans for battery swap stations, which, IMO, would be a game changer. But for me, electric cars are not yet practical enough to make the change.



Hey, thanks for the thoughtful response. That all makes perfect sense. I’ve been trying to figure out whether I was overreacting to the earlier message or not. I think maybe what I was responding to is that among many people I’ve known over the years, there’s been an overall dismissiveness regarding electric vehicles that’s not quite in line with reality. When I was younger, I remember a friend saying “electric cars will never be able to be as powerful as gas powered cars”, then there were hybrids like the Prius that made people think that this new technology would always just produce boring cars with no torque. And when I was buying mine recently, I was definitely in a crisis about the range thing. What if it’s not good enough? Don’t I need 250 miles of range on any car I buy? I ended up buying a Leaf, which has significantly less range than other options, mainly because that’s what I could afford, and as it happens, it has like 10x as much range as I need on a regular basis. Once in a while I’ll do a longer drive that will run down the battery, but I’ve yet to charge it anywhere but my house. I guess my point is that, yes, EVs have a long way to go before they completely replace fuel burning vehicles, but they’ve come far enough that I think many more people could benefit from them than currently do, and a lot of the stress about range, etc, is overblown. Of course, some people really need the range and the reliability of the gas infrastructure, but I bet a very significant portion of the population could get an EV tomorrow and be absolutely content with it. I’m sure it heavily depends on where you live — there are plenty of charging stations near me and I don’t have to drive more than 10 miles on a typical workday — but it’s not like this is a technology in its infancy that we have to set a 20 yr reminder to watch out for, it’s a technology that’s here now and is absolutely a feasible option for many (not all) people. Anyway, I’m not disagreeing with anything in your quoted post, I’m just rambling on and on because that’s my jam.


----------



## Michi (Oct 10, 2021)

Bart.s said:


> Don't remember anymore how many km's she drove, but my petrol car was cheaper per km .


For the 420 km range that I can expect with my Tesla under realistic driving conditions, I pay $22.40 in electricity. To drive the same distance in my previous car cost me $87.80 in petrol. Pretty much a factor of 4 cheaper for the Tesla.


----------



## MarcelNL (Oct 11, 2021)

Michi said:


> For the 420 km range that I can expect with my Tesla under realistic driving conditions, I pay $22.40 in electricity. To drive the same distance in my previous car cost me $87.80 in petrol. Pretty much a factor of 4 cheaper for the Tesla.



WOW, what is YOUR gas price or did you use to drive a Patton Tank?

I just returned from a trip tp Berlin, on the 700km drive towards Berlin I averaged 8 liters per 100 [email protected] (don;t even ask) and on the return leg flying low as much as possible @200+km/h put me at 10L/100km average.

I'd love an electric car if the range at high speed and range with tow weights would be sensible, as it is you see the range fade away quickly with both....I absolutely LOVE the torque and how they deliver it.


----------



## Michi (Oct 11, 2021)

MarcelNL said:


> WOW, what is YOUR gas price or did you use to drive a Patton Tank?


My previous car used around 11.6 l of petrol per 100 km. Golf R32, 3.2 l V6. That's in city driving. Cost per litre of 98 octane fuel here: around $1.80. Cost per kWh of electricity: $0.28. I don't think I made a calculation error. Filling up the tank on my previous car once it got reasonably low would cost anything between $75 and $95, depending on current fuel prices, and it wouldn't go a lot further than my Tesla on a full charge.


----------



## MarcelNL (Oct 11, 2021)

Michi said:


>




If anyone wants to be convinced of the torque of EV's do a test drive in a Tesla S with Ludicrous mode, but get checked out by your GP first ;-)
You can feel the blood pool in the back of your head doing 0-100km/h (60m/h), ridiculous....


----------



## Luftmensch (Oct 11, 2021)

Michi said:


> My previous car used around 11.6 l of petrol per 100 km. Golf R32, 3.2 l V6. That's in city driving. Cost per litre of 98 octane fuel here: around $1.80. Cost per kWh of electricity: $0.28. I don't think I made a calculation error. Filling up the tank on my previous car once it got reasonably low would cost anything between $75 and $95, depending on current fuel prices, and it wouldn't go a lot further than my Tesla on a full charge.



Behold... the venerable CT100:






1.6L/100km


----------



## Luftmensch (Oct 11, 2021)

tcmx3 said:


> full self driving is a very, very long away. the industry needs something at LEAST as big a change as Attention is All You Need was for language.



Except it did  

Attention networks are used in lots of problem domains - not just language. LSTMs have been used in autonomous driving to model pedestrian/driver behaviours. Similarly you can can apply attention networks to computer vision - which is clearly a critical tool in autonomous driving! Apparently attention is not _all_ you need anymore: "Attention is Not All You Need: Pure Attention Loses Rank Doubly Exponentially with Depth" . I love the fun academic can have with paper titles.

Deep-learning is phenomenally successful at many tasks. Its success have been overtaken by an exaggeration of its capabilities (usually by non-practitioners). It is a funny field - it appears to have a larger element of 'craft' than other machine learning sub-fields. A lot of developments have come from innovations in 'architectures'... which whilst principled, are not constructions you can arrive at from plugging away at the maths. There is an element of invoking dark arcana through lots of experience and an instinct for how to conjure clever networks into practice. 

Big changes in deep-learning... or not.... autonomous driving is a complex task. Most forms of AI are very narrow. Whilst autonomous driving will never have to change a light bulb... it needs to be broad enough to cope with a lot of varying subtasks. This generally means wiring lots of different systems together, from perception, to planning and control.




tcmx3 said:


> if you wanted to make cars that dont need to be steered today or probably in the next decade, you would need to put down set paths and specific places for them to stop to avoid them from killing their occupants 0.001% of the time (which would add up very quickly).



True. I can imagine a world were dedicated bus lanes are autonomous... or freight transport lanes for trucks. Solving the problem of autonomous vehicles only interacting with autonomous vehicles is far easier than a mixed system. 

On the death count issue... Another way to think about it is this: as soon as autonomous vehicles are marginally better than human drivers, it might be unethical to continue allowing humans to drive  

I dont expect a system with zero fatalities... although it is a nice aspiration to strive towards. 'Better' than human is good enough.






Barashka said:


> Though result are quite impressive .. their self driving might not be there yet, but certainly amazing progress. Stay objective here, they don't get to be top of industry by being "not great".



I am not so sure they are top of the industry. Car autonomy is ranked from 0 to 5. I believe Tesla's so called 'autopilot' is at level 2. I think Google's Waymo is at level 4. Tesla also doesnt use LiDAR. No direct 3D scene information is a major lack of capacity. You might consider companies that use LiDAR information to be more advanced (assuming they are doing it well). I would say many companies with autonomous car programs are at level 2 (yes, probably even the boring traditional companies). The Tesla 'autopilot' feature is really what the industry calls advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) - lane assist and autobraking on steroids.

In my opinion, the difference between Tesla and other companies is not some inherent tech genius... but an attitude to risk. My guess is that the other companies are conservative and dont want to attract bad press by releasing under developed products. Tesla have gone in the other direction and played the first to autonomous* party game. By being boorish about their technologies, Tesla is forcing regulators to accept the technology... and competitors are likely watching how the regulators respond. A bit like how Uber bullied its way into the market.

I hate to admit it... but this may give Tesla a long term advantage. By releasing a product into the wild, they have a greater capacity to collect data and perform testing than their competitors... but that obviously comes with risks that society will have to decide whether they are willing to tolerate.



* not actually autonomous for technical and legal reasons... but dont read the boring fine print


----------



## tomsch (Oct 11, 2021)

I have a 2017 Honda CRV with an extended warrantee until 2025 so I'll likely keep it around until then. 2025 is also my retirement target date since I'll be 62 and the house will be paid off. At that point I'm thinking that EV will be more mainstream but this is a great thread to see everyone's experience to date.


----------



## tcmx3 (Oct 11, 2021)

Luftmensch said:


> Except it did
> 
> Attention networks are used in lots of problem domains - not just language. LSTMs have been used in autonomous driving to model pedestrian/driver behaviours. Similarly you can can apply attention networks to computer vision - which is clearly a critical tool in autonomous driving! Apparently attention is not _all_ you need anymore: "Attention is Not All You Need: Pure Attention Loses Rank Doubly Exponentially with Depth" . I love the fun academic can have with paper titles.
> 
> ...



Im not 100% sure what your argument is. while attention has uses outside of language models, it is not even debatable that it has had the largest effect in language by a mile IMO.

my point is that a similar step change needs to happen for autonomous driving. saying that the hype of deep learning (as it currently exists) is disproportionate to its actual results in autonomous driving is IMO, about 10 degrees too kind. I say this as a person with multiple DL models in production.

autonomous driving is probably a solvable task in the long run but so are lots of problems that got worked on for decades. that's my suggestion here; without a major change, it doesnt matter how many things you try and bolt together like an erector set cars wont drive themselves


----------



## Bart.s (Oct 11, 2021)

MarcelNL said:


> WOW, what is YOUR gas price or did you use to drive a Patton Tank?



To clarify, my petrol car was cheaper per km in the winter months, when she couldn't charge fully. She also used the fast chargers on the highway a couple of times those months, which are considerably more expensive.

Rest of the year, ofcourse, EV was much cheaper


----------



## Barashka (Oct 11, 2021)

Luftmensch said:


> By releasing a product into the wild


Yeh, "autopilot" is a huge marketing stunt .. but it may have really paid off. We'll see. Access to real data is huge.



Luftmensch said:


> Tesla also doesnt use LiDAR.


Didn't Tesla drop lidar because they think they can do it with just camera? This was recent.

I didn't know Google is that far ahead "officially", I'm a bit hesitant to call them that far ahead due to exactly what you said about Tesla's access to training data .. and the part that Tesla's are already out on the road, and I haven't seen google one in practice yet. 

Google certainly has much trust from past achievements though. I'm not sure why, but if they would release this tech like they did maps and gmail so everyone could use it .. that would really jolt the industry forward. One can dream.


----------



## Luftmensch (Oct 11, 2021)

tcmx3 said:


> while attention has uses outside of language models, it is not even debatable that it has had the largest effect in language by a mile IMO.



Sure. I agree 

I am just noting that attention networks aren't exclusively used by NLP (although they were developed there).... and there are tasks within autonomous driving that could benefit from attention networks.



tcmx3 said:


> saying that the hype of deep learning (as it currently exists) is disproportionate to its actual results in autonomous driving is IMO, about 10 degrees too kind. I say this as a person with multiple DL models in production.



Yes and no. 

Without being too emphatic, all I am trying to communicate is that deep-learning is not a silver bullet. Not necessarily to you... but to anyone who might read the post. Autonomous driving... deep learning... AI.... big data... a lot of these terms get thrown around and conflated in popular culture. I am sure you and I might agree on what is realistic and what are unfounded expectations

However, it is well worth recognising the contribution deep learning has made to computer vision at a practical level. You cant really do high-level computer vision research without stubbing your toe on deep learning. This very much includes autonomous driving. Any autonomous vehicles using machine vision will be running some sort of deep learning network to interpret the video stream. I agree... forget the hype. In some senses deep learning for perception tasks is routine and even mundane. But since it has become almost a prerequisite, I feel one has to be forced to acknowledge that its impact on autonomous driving has been enabling and significant (albeit, not the first coming of robotic jesus). 





tcmx3 said:


> Im not 100% sure what your argument is.



I think where we differ is the role of technological 'step changes'.




tcmx3 said:


> autonomous driving is probably a solvable task in the long run but so are lots of problems that got worked on for decades. that's my suggestion here; without a major change, it doesnt matter how many things you try and bolt together like an erector set cars wont drive themselves



Like you say! Time is progress! I think this the stronger position.

Artificial neural networks are what? More than half a century old? Backpropagation decades old... 'Modern' stochastic gradient descent and running networks on dedicated hardware (GPU/TPUs) are about 15 years old? All these leaps can smash one problem and subsequently open many doors... but they hardly ever solve very general and difficult problems. 

You dont need particularly general AI to solve autonomous driving (my previous silly remark about changing light bulbs). But the system can't be a narrow AI either. Writing a championship level chess algorithm, or finding cats in pictures... or translating literature from spanish to english are all difficult problems. But we can solve those problems with highly optimised algorithms for a dedicated task (narrow AI). Major leaps have a more profound effect on these well defined tasks. Driving is a mix of complex and interacting requirements... so the system has to reflect that. In other words, be slightly less narrow.

I think the secret sauce _will_ _be_ in learning how to bolt things together. Not one great leap. _This_ is my point. Sure... very specific major changes will help... but I just dont imagine a major leap in one subsystem solving the global problem. Like I mentioned earlier you could crudely break down autonomous driving into perception, planning and control - indeed any robotics problem. Deep learning has excited people because it is having a profound impact on perception systems. But that doesnt necessarily solve the planning problem... you might use deep learning... you might not. You can have a really technical and complex discussion about localisation without even mentioning deep learning... and so it goes. 

And this is where we are. We have really competent building blocks that make up something like 95% of an autonomous car... but that 5% is really important and it is going to be a hard slog completing. It is likely this will come through improvements in many fields. Some major. Many more incremental.


----------



## Luftmensch (Oct 11, 2021)

Barashka said:


> Didn't Tesla drop lidar because they think they can do it with just camera? This was recent.





Who knows the real reason 

Everything Musk has said about LiDARs could just be backward justifications. Early 360 degree LiDARs cost ~$75K. Clearly that cost is not viable for consumers. Since then the cost has plummeted to about $10K... better... but still a significant cost. If you adopt an aggressive market strategy, you can't wait for the price to drop. To me this better explains why Tesla does not use LiDAR than any nonsense Musk has said. I am sure the price will keep dropping. I'd say it is at acceptable levels for narrow fields of view (e.g. Ibeo).

Can you build an autonomous car using only cameras? Probably... Should you?? Probably not... Not even Tesla do - they also use radar. Redundancy is a useful feature in systems with spectacular failure modes. Do you want your autonomous car to have human vision or superhuman vision? Seeing in the dark; seeing while driving into the sun and seeing through fog/snow/rain all sound like pretty useful capabilities to me. Our current technology does not provide those capabilities in one sensor, so a mix is required. LiDAR can play a role in that.

One of Tesla's first fatalities could have been prevented with LiDAR. The driver was watching Harry Potter whilst on autopilot. Apparently the computer vision could not differentiate between a white truck and the open sky (over exposed?). The car drove underneath the side of the truck at 100km/h - decapitating the occupant. A forward facing LiDAR system would have likely detected an obstacle in front of the vehicle and intervened.




Barashka said:


> I didn't know Google is that far ahead "officially", I'm a bit hesitant to call them that far ahead due to exactly what you said about Tesla's access to training data .. and the part that Tesla's are already out on the road, and I haven't seen google one in practice yet.



Clearly you don't live in San Fran or Phoenix  (ignoring your avatar location information )

I think this goes back to a previous point though. I think other companies are being more cautious and even working with municipalities to roll out trials.

It is hard to say whether the Tesla data set can tip the balance. Good data is worthwhile... inconsequential data is an encumbrance and shyte data is a liability. I am sure Tesla has hired some top guns... but autonomous driving is a software and AI task... Google has a lot of form in that space. They also know how to handle large volumes of data and have the infrastructure for it. This means they can take some computational shortcuts in dense urban areas (like SF or PHO).


----------



## tcmx3 (Oct 11, 2021)

Luftmensch said:


> I am sure Tesla has hired some top guns...



Tesla hired Karpathy but one cannot build ML with reputation alone.

In fact the quality of your individual MLEs and DSs is almost never the determinant of how good your product is. Tesla and Uber manage to hire people with impressive resumes but see my prior comment. Anyway they aren't any better than NVidia or Google's teams and the fact is the latter two seem to make significantly more material progress every year, probably down to the same **** culture that has plagued Tesla. Uber has the same issue, fwiw, and despite hiring tons of qualified people and trying to hire even more (for example, by pestering certain grumpy KKF members) have had to dump their self driving division to stop hemorrhaging money at quite such an extreme rate.

Anyway I can only say so many times that Tesla's got issues and have people not listen before I throw a clot in my brain.


----------



## Keith Sinclair (Oct 12, 2021)

inferno said:


> i just sms:ed my boss telling him i needed a 1k €$£ raise a month.
> 
> and that i would also need a tesla from now on. but none of these fagg0t ones with only 400hp, but the real ones with 700hp.
> 
> its only 4 in the morning here. we'll se how it goes. i think i have a good bargaining standpoint. he's gonna love this.



From a bicycle to 700hp


----------



## Keith Sinclair (Oct 12, 2021)

Here plenty houses have solar panels electric car works well with that. 

I'm in 5g stocks it's a game changer with huge rise in data capabilities. Don't buy that self driving cars will be universal in a decade as some predict. If battery technology gets better 
electric will take off. China has lots of electric 
car companies. Some will become world producers in the future because of cheap labor.
Even Japan & US car companies building more 
electric cars. I wouldn't buy Tesla stock at these levels, plenty other players in the works.


----------



## Barashka (Oct 12, 2021)

Google knows things.
I suddenly get electric car compare videos on the tubes.
(not an endorsement of this channel, first time seeing the dude, but seems like just a dude talking about cars reasonably honestly and mostly about the feels, not the pure on-paper stuff)

His opinions in short:
- Tesla - boy racer gadget that does the one thing amazing well, go fast in a straight line.
- Lucid - refined luxury sedan for 50+ year olds, made by nice people.
- EQS - magical, serene, the pinnacle of German luxury, reasonably priced given what you get
- Taycan - lots of porsche tax but you get an amazing balanced sporty porsche feel.
Then a bunch of discussions about how Tesla and expectedly Lucid are often under advertized range, Tycan is way over and EQS is a bit over advertised .. so in practice, they are all not that far apart from each other.

How close do you think is he?


----------

