# Expected price raises across japan for knives



## JBroida

Just a heads up for everyone... a number of knife maker associations across japan have agreed upon price raises for products made by their members. It seems this is occurring in multiple regions, and even those outside of these associations will be raising prices. In many cases, we expect to see 20% increases (though we have been told that some will be more). We have been told that these changes will begin in the fall, but people are going about it differently. Some have already started, while others will take a bit longer. Some will be raising prices on knives ordered from that point on, while others will be raising prices on everything (including items that have already been on order, but have not yet been paid for or shipped). This is not in every single region for knife making, but we have heard this from many of them, and expect others to follow suit.

We have not seen so much of this as of yet, but we expect this to start effecting us (and everyone else) shortly.


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## Matus

Jon, I know you are talking to me 

Thanks for the heads up


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## zitangy

I cant finger the real reason for it. It eludes me.....Is it because of high demand or material prices or exchange rates? 

From Demand perspective.. the Artisan workshops can't scale up much and the better ones deserve what the market is willing to pay...

As for the raw materials, when it reached shy high prices prices were raised. When it crashed.. it was a HAppy Times for them. I didnt see any price reduction

When the Yen strengthen ( exchange rate) all the from 120 to 77.. again it was Happy times. When it weakened the other way round... slight increase

Inflation? its real low in japan... they are trying to force it up...


any thoughts?
rgds
d


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## ecchef

I'm guessing the exchange rates for USD. My COLA recently increased.


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## mc2442

ecchef said:


> I'm guessing the exchange rates for USD. My COLA recently increased.



I know the dollar has been strong, but hasn't the "flight to quality" strengthened the yen in relative tandem?


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## Pirendeus

I was wondering the same thing...the jpy has strengthened in the past couple of weeks...but this agreement sounds like it's it's taken more than two weeks to come about, so I would guess that there are more factors at play.


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## Mucho Bocho

Seems like Japans rising prices are effecting popsicles too.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/19/business/international/japan-economy-deflation-prices.html?_r=0


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## Benuser

Sounds like a price cartel. It probably won't last.


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## jklip13

Before we accuse our beloved knife makers of trying to steal from us, I think we should look at how they live. Many live as artists, investing enormous amounts of time and effort into their craft and make shockingly little. So you know, generally knife dealers get a 50% discount when buying wholesale. Take Kato for example, he is only getting payed a couple hundred bucks for his 240mm Gyuto. He has to buy the handle and get a saya made for the knife by another craftsman too. I cant imagine what he is left with after paying rent, abrasives, charcoal/gas and electric. Most of these people deserve more. As a community of people who appreciate and obsess over their work, I think we should be open these kind of changes and more understanding.


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## Chicagohawkie

Pricing has already begun to run away, I've noticed this at several retailers already. I'm happy I bought my knives when I did. I don't think I would have purchased at today's prices. I will say though a 20 percent increase in pricing will slow demand considerably.


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## alterwisser

Chicagohawkie said:


> Pricing has already begun to run away, I've noticed this at several retailers already. I'm happy I bought my knives when I did. I don't think I would have purchased at today's prices. I will say though a 20 percent increase in pricing will slow demand considerably.



I'm fine with that. Supply & demand... that's how capitalism works (or should work haha)...


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## alterwisser

JBroida said:


> Just a heads up for everyone... a number of knife maker associations across japan have agreed upon price raises for products made by their members. It seems this is occurring in multiple regions, and even those outside of these associations will be raising prices. In many cases, we expect to see 20% increases (though we have been told that some will be more). We have been told that these changes will begin in the fall, but people are going about it differently. Some have already started, while others will take a bit longer. Some will be raising prices on knives ordered from that point on, while others will be raising prices on everything (including items that have already been on order, but have not yet been paid for or shipped). This is not in every single region for knife making, but we have heard this from many of them, and expect others to follow suit.
> 
> We have not seen so much of this as of yet, but we expect this to start effecting us (and everyone else) shortly.



Do you expect it to affect your Kochi line as well?


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## JBroida

zitangy said:


> I cant finger the real reason for it. It eludes me.....Is it because of high demand or material prices or exchange rates?
> 
> From Demand perspective.. the Artisan workshops can't scale up much and the better ones deserve what the market is willing to pay...
> 
> As for the raw materials, when it reached shy high prices prices were raised. When it crashed.. it was a HAppy Times for them. I didnt see any price reduction
> 
> When the Yen strengthen ( exchange rate) all the from 120 to 77.. again it was Happy times. When it weakened the other way round... slight increase
> 
> Inflation? its real low in japan... they are trying to force it up...
> 
> 
> any thoughts?
> rgds
> d



There are a number of reasons, but the rising cost of materials, and difficulty of finding certain materials plays some role in this. In addition, the wage discrepancy between the craftsmen and wholesalers in japan plays a role too. But, mostly, we just havent seen significant price raises from the craftsmen over the years. Some, yes. But not as many as you guys seem to think. Many price raises have been the result of currency fluctuations. Since we started japanese knife imports, we have seen the yen get as strong as 74 yen to the dollar and as week as 125 yen to the dollar. In general, we try to not mess with the prices so much, so when the exchange rate sucks, we eat it a bit. When its a bit nicer, we make up for that time a bit. If it gets too extreme in either direction, we adjust pricing (but not as fas as to be in alignment with the extreme exchange rates at that time). We have raised and lowered prices accordingly. In fact, i just lowered prices on some things that needed it. Also, we dont always raise prices when prices are raised on us. This is different. This price raise is about the craftsmen wanting to be paid more fairly. I've actually encouraged this kind of price range, and i think anyone would when they see what kind of work goes into the knives, and what kind of money the craftsmen are able to make for that work.

Currently, demand is out of control. No one can keep up. Most normal orders are taking 3-6 months on the fast side of things, with many companies having waits as long as 2-3 years (and some even longer). They are working like crazy to keep up. This is about being fair to the actual craftsmen who make the knives, handles, sayas, etc. that we all love. Not only do they deserve more as they get better and increase their abilities, but they also have to deal with a rising cost of steel, abrasives, coal, charcoal, electricity, wood, buffalo horn, etc. Also, how would you feel if you started a job 10 years ago at $15 per hour and were still making $15 per hour today?


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## JBroida

alterwisser said:


> Do you expect it to affect your Kochi line as well?



i think this will effect pretty much everything, but i'm not changing any prices yet. I only plan to make pricing adjustments on my side if necessary. For some of our orders, this wont be as apparent, as we are locked in on old pricing for orders placed previously, so those will take much longer to see this change. On others, it may happen more immediately, but the changes may be within a range of things we can deal with, and so the price adjustment may be nothing or very small. In some cases, however, we may see a significant raise. I dont know how this price raise will play out with retail pricing in japan or here. I just know that i will have to pay attention and make some adjustments over the next few months.


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## aboynamedsuita

jklip13 said:


> Before we accuse our beloved knife makers of trying to steal from us, I think we should look at how they live. Many live as artists, investing enormous amounts of time and effort into their craft and make shockingly little. So you know, generally knife dealers get a 50% discount when buying wholesale. Take Kato for example, he is only getting payed a couple hundred bucks for his 240mm Gyuto. He has to buy the handle and get a saya made for the knife by another craftsman too. I cant imagine what he is left with after paying rent, abrasives, charcoal/gas and electric. Most of these people deserve more. As a community of people who appreciate and obsess over their work, I think we should be open these kind of changes and more understanding.





JBroida said:


> There are a number of reasons, but the rising cost of materials, and difficulty of finding certain materials plays some role in this. In addition, the wage discrepancy between the craftsmen and wholesalers in japan plays a role too. But, mostly, we just havent seen significant price raises from the craftsmen over the years. Some, yes. But not as many as you guys seem to think. Many price raises have been the result of currency fluctuations. Since we started japanese knife imports, we have seen the yen get as strong as 74 yen to the dollar and as week as 125 yen to the dollar. In general, we try to not mess with the prices so much, so when the exchange rate sucks, we eat it a bit. When its a bit nicer, we make up for that time a bit. If it gets too extreme in either direction, we adjust pricing (but not as fas as to be in alignment with the extreme exchange rates at that time). We have raised and lowered prices accordingly. In fact, i just lowered prices on some things that needed it. Also, we dont always raise prices when prices are raised on us. This is different. This price raise is about the craftsmen wanting to be paid more fairly. I've actually encouraged this kind of price range, and i think anyone would when they see what kind of work goes into the knives, and what kind of money the craftsmen are able to make for that work.
> 
> Currently, demand is out of control. No one can keep up. Most normal orders are taking 3-6 months on the fast side of things, with many companies having waits as long as 2-3 years (and some even longer). They are working like crazy to keep up. This is about being fair to the actual craftsmen who make the knives, handles, sayas, etc. that we all love. Not only do they deserve more as they get better and increase their abilities, but they also have to deal with a rising cost of steel, abrasives, coal, charcoal, electricity, wood, buffalo horn, etc. Also, how would you feel if you started a job 10 years ago at $15 per hour and were still making $15 per hour today?



Well said Jon and Jon.

This is just an informal observation on my part, but I think it's also important to remember that many craftsman are nearing retirement and if the younger generation is to be convinced to enter bladesmithing they will have to be paid as such to encourage them to not seek a higher paying career in another profession.


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## Matus

Jon, thanks for the explanation. I am all in for a fair pay.


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## alterwisser

tjangula said:


> Well said Jon and Jon.
> 
> This is just an informal observation on my part, but I think it's also important to remember that many craftsman are nearing retirement and if the younger generation is to be convinced to enter bladesmithing they will have to be paid as such to encourage them to not seek a higher paying career in another profession.



I would happily be an apprentice to one of the makers... 

No, I'm serious. Only...

1) I'm too old

2) my Japanese is as good as my Finnish, Farsi and Klingon

3) I live in New Jersey!

Oh my...


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## pkjames

tjangula said:


> Well said Jon and Jon.
> 
> This is just an informal observation on my part, but I think it's also important to remember that many craftsman are nearing retirement and if the younger generation is to be convinced to enter bladesmithing they will have to be paid as such to encourage them to not seek a higher paying career in another profession.



Master itsuo doi has no successor. His son decided to become a normal company employee and the reason? "blacksmithing is too hard for too little"


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## aboynamedsuita

alterwisser said:


> I would happily be an apprentice to one of the makers...
> 
> No, I'm serious. Only...
> 
> 1) I'm too old
> 
> 2) my Japanese is as good as my Finnish, Farsi and Klingon
> 
> 3) I live in New Jersey!
> 
> Oh my...



Perhaps you can use your employment position to strike a lucrative business deal that'd be a win-win for you and the bladesmith


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## Benuser

Matus said:


> Jon, thanks for the explanation. I am all in for a fair pay.



+1
Thanks for explaining this peculiar market.


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## TurboScooter

Here's a probably dumb question - I kind of read this like it will affect the prices of largely handmade knives. Are the prices expected to go up 20% on the mass produced (Tojiro, for example) stuff as well?


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## DanHumphrey

pkjames said:


> Master itsuo doi has no successor. His son decided to become a normal company employee and the reason? "blacksmithing is too hard for too little"



That's why I'm not a farmer, as my grandfather was, and my father was in his childhood: it's damned hard work for little pay...


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## DanHumphrey

mc2442 said:


> I know the dollar has been strong, but hasn't the "flight to quality" strengthened the yen in relative tandem?



Wouldn't a strong dollar make everything cheaper, all else equal, anyway?


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## JBroida

TurboScooter said:


> Here's a probably dumb question - I kind of read this like it will affect the prices of largely handmade knives. Are the prices expected to go up 20% on the mass produced (Tojiro, for example) stuff as well?



It seems that this will effect everything. I think a lot of you would be surprised to see the amount of physical labor even factory produced knives require.


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## Matus

JBroida said:


> It seems that this will effect everything. I think a lot of you would be surprised to see the amount of physical labor even factory produced knives require.



My understanding that even with knives like Tojiro DP which are not had forged, there is still a lot of work on grind and finishing that is up to large extend hand made.


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## Pirendeus

Matus said:


> My understanding that even with knives like Tojiro DP which are not had forged, there is still a lot of work on grind and finishing that is up to large extend hand made.




Did you hire Melania Trump's writer? ;-)


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## Matus

Pirendeus said:


> Did you hire Melania Trump's writer? ;-)



so that's why he was so cheap ... :O :wink:


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## Ruso

I wonder why the demand on J knives became so hot....


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## aboynamedsuita

People finally realized how much better they are?


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## havox07

I was talking to So from Japan-tool about this and he mentioned it more affecting the mass makers, so those looking for katos or shigefusas might be ok. A 20% increase all at once is quite substantial imo. He was also mentioning that this is happening due to these japanese makers now choosing to focus on the western market not their local market. All in all not the best situation especially how it has been handled at least from what I have heard.


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## JBroida

havox07 said:


> I was talking to So from Japan-tool about this and he mentioned it more affecting the mass makers, so those looking for katos or shigefusas might be ok. A 20% increase all at once is quite substantial imo. He was also mentioning that this is happening due to these japanese makers now choosing to focus on the western market not their local market. All in all not the best situation especially how it has been handled at least from what I have heard.



So far, it seems to be all around... small and large operations alike


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## Corradobrit1

I'm actually surprised hand-forged, hand-shaped and hand-sharpened knives, fitted with handmade handles, are as cheap as they are. Like a lot of artisan products, these handmade items will likely continue to increase in price, especially as the older generations involved in their manufacture now, retire. Scarcity of Wa handles (Ebony or magnolia handles have not been available on his website for many months) and availability of steel for knife production will also drive prices higher.


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## Smashmasta

JBroida said:


> Just a heads up for everyone... a number of knife maker associations across japan have agreed upon price raises for products made by their members. It seems this is occurring in multiple regions, and even those outside of these associations will be raising prices. In many cases, we expect to see 20% increases (though we have been told that some will be more). We have been told that these changes will begin in the fall, but people are going about it differently. Some have already started, while others will take a bit longer. Some will be raising prices on knives ordered from that point on, while others will be raising prices on everything (including items that have already been on order, but have not yet been paid for or shipped). This is not in every single region for knife making, but we have heard this from many of them, and expect others to follow suit.
> 
> We have not seen so much of this as of yet, but we expect this to start effecting us (and everyone else) shortly.



Thanks for the heads up, JBroida. I do have a question about news like this, and news in general coming out of Japan - where would one find this news directly besides a forum like this (as great as this is)?


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## JBroida

Smashmasta said:


> Thanks for the heads up, JBroida. I do have a question about news like this, and news in general coming out of Japan - where would one find this news directly besides a forum like this (as great as this is)?



probably not, as this comes to us directly from the craftsmen via e-mail or phone call


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## TimH

Without making a case for or against these price increases, does anyone know what antitrust legislation looks like in Japan? There's no way this would fly in the US......


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## aboynamedsuita

TimH said:


> Without making a case for or against these price increases, does anyone know what antitrust legislation looks like in Japan? There's no way this would fly in the US......



How so, I'm not privy to all the details of the US, but how is it that that one pharmaceutical company can raise the price of a drug 5000% "just because"; it's not like they're struggling to make ends meet, but are most likely lining their pockets 

I don't see a problem with a modest increase in knife prices to account for increased material costs and trying to be able to have a decent standard of living, even if it is above inflation


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## TimH

The drug company example is one firm deciding to raise prices on its own. No legal biggie to the Feds. The problem would come when one or more firms colludes to raise prices together. That would be the textbook definition of price fixing and is a big no-no. Just curious about the legal picture in Japan, that's all.


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## Benuser

TimH said:


> Without making a case for or against these price increases, does anyone know what antitrust legislation looks like in Japan? There's no way this would fly in the US......



I guess law of their customers' countries is just as relevant.


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## Chicagohawkie

I know Saji increased his prices a year ago 15-20 percent, so I wonder in this collusive event if he will go ahead and follow suit and raise his prices again. Not a bad raise in the course of 1+ years. In the last 10 years there have hundreds of new brands created in this 'me too' Japanese knife craze..... I don't know how Kurosaki keeps track of the 50 brands that he makes knives for, I would venture to say that he's not doing this all by himself. If I woke up one day and decided I'd raise my fees 20 percent, I'm sure I'd lose 20-30 percent of my business overnight. Feel free to raise your prices 20 percent, it will all work out, smiths will work less and make the same money..... Store shelf swill have more stock and the proprietors will make more off each sale..... All supply and demand economics... 
In the meantime, I'll be using my katos, Shigs and konosukes bought when they were affordable.


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## Chef Doom

JBroida said:


> how would you feel if you started a job 10 years ago at $15 per hour and were still making $15 per hour today?



If we are talking 1970's cost of living I would be living like a prince :doublethumbsup:


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## bkdc

Matus said:


> My understanding that even with knives like Tojiro DP which are not had forged, there is still a lot of work on grind and finishing that is up to large extend hand made.



I wouldn't say that about Tojiro. They have the worst grinds I've ever seen on a mass produced J-knife. However, the amount of labor that goes into a Shun is impressive.


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## DeepCSweede

I don't know what steel prices are doing in Japan but the Chinese markets artificially drove prices up earlier this year and then the Obama administration added a tariff which collectively drove our price of steel up almost 30%.


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## JBroida

steel is part of it... china also seems to be a large part of the rising price of buffalo horn and wood raw materials


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## bennyprofane

I asked Watanabe about this and he hadnt even heard of it, so perhaps not everybody is on board with this.


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## Benuser

I would wonder about steel prices being that important as a factor.


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## malexthekid

Benuser said:


> I would wonder about steel prices being that important as a factor.



Depends on the price increase in steel.

Though i do agree with your sentiment (i think). And would guess that cost of living pressures is more than likely the contributing factor.


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## Matus

My personal guess is that for most kitchen knives the price of the steel os around $10-$20 or less (more with some high end PM steels I suppose), so even considerable price hike would not chance the price of the knife much. I think it is a cumulation of several factors (including demand) that makes for the quoted 30% appreciation.


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